Football season may be over, but what will probably be the most insane Free Agency period is about to begin. In less than three weeks Peyton Manning will be released from the Colts. He is no way healthy enough as of right now, for the Colts to pay him $28 million on March 8th and commit to him long-term. There is a good chance that he will be healthy enough to play in 2012, but that is no guarantee. Yet, for this excercise, I will assume that he will be healthy for the 2012 season.
The Longshots to Sign Manning
Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1
New York Jets: 25/1
The Medium Shots to Sign Manning
San Francisco: 12/1
This might be the best fit outside of Baltimore. The comparison is furthered because the problem here was the problem there, will they shove Alex Smith aside? Alex Smith, who has been loyal to that team through 58 different offensive-coordinators finally does a great Joe Montana 1981 impression and now he gets the bench? The team has the best defense in the NFL. The team will probably go out and sign a FA WR (which they have the money for) and they already have a decent o-line. It all makes sense. Jim Harbaugh would probably go for it, but I think he's tied to Alex Smith. It isn't a very strong tie, though.
*** Aside ***
Peyton Manning's health issues, from what I have heard, is only about his arm strength and his nerve regeneration in his arm. His neck is no longer an issue. This idea that because of him having three neck surgeries (and four procedures, but a procedure can be anything like a stress relief procedure) is suddenly going to make him one hit away from paralysis is untrue. Now that his neck is healed, he is not substantially more likely to get paralyzed (or reinjure the neck, which is more appropriate and less extreme) than any random schmo.
Manning will be released, and I am at peace with it. The Colts will likely not be a terrible franchise because I believe in the people they have brought in, and I think Andrew Luck will be really good. Will he be Peyton? Almost assuredly not. Chances are he won't be close. Will he be Eli Manning? Very easily. My love of the Colts will outlive Peyton Manning, which actually makes it easy for me to just follow Manning to whatever team he goes to. Will I have too many teams on my plate to have three different teams? Probably, but I am fine with it. I would much rather like Manning in the NFL playing somewhere else than never playing again. I can't live with the fact that Manning's last game might be lost because of a long kick-off return and a 4th quarter comeback by Mark Sanchez. I don't want my last year of Manning to be a depressing 10-6 season that Manning basically willed himself. There has to be more to the story of the greatest football player of my lifetime.
Because of this line of thinking, I am ready to look at the potential landing spots for Peyton Manning. I am sad that I was so prescient. Two years ago, I wrote that if Peyton ever were a free-agent it would create a much more fiery media circus than LeBron's rigged free-agency tour. I wrote that Manning could have his version of "The Decision" at 5AM and draw five times more than LeBron drew for his. I am pretty sure Manning will not have a version of The Decision, but either way, the media is going to be ridiculous over Manning's free agency. Here's a quick, pre-free agency, pre-draft (I believe Manning will only sign after the draft, but I could easily be wrong) rundown of all the teams in the NFL and if they would try to sign Manning.
Teams that Won't Sign Manning Because They Don't Need To
Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, San Diego, Pittsburgh.
These are the teams that employ the six best non-Peyton QBs in the NFL. They have QBs that have already received big contracts, and are already great fits in their teams. I would love some bizarre situation where Belichick releases Brady to sign Manning, but I'm not on enough drugs to think that is at all a possibility.
Teams that Won't Sign Manning But Might Have Cause To
Cincinnati, Houston, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, Carolina
These are all teams that have okay QB situations, but are either too committed, too green or two close-minded to pick Manning. Dalton and Newton had good rookie seasons and should be franchise QBs. Stafford, Romo, Cutler, Schaub and Ryan are all good enough that their teams won't really think to upgrade at QB. Vick has way too much money attached, and I don't think Reid would want to coach a new QB that offense. Oakland is already over the cap.
Teams that Won't Sign Manning Because Manning Won't Go There
Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Denver, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, St. Louis
These are all teams that are bad. They won't compete for a title even with Manning (yes, even Denver, a 2011 playoff team). Buffalo has money locked up with Fitzpatrick, as are Freeman and Bradford in Tampa and St. Louis. I can't see him going to Jacksonville mainly because I don't think he wants to stay in the AFC South.
The Longshots to Sign Manning
Baltimore Ravens: 40/1
The Ravens are the perfect fit on paper, but I don't think they will give up on Flacco just like that. That said, I could see it happening which is why they aren't in that pod with Dallas, Detroit and the others. The Ravens old great players (Lewis, Reed) probably have the same career window that Manning has, so that works. They have a good running back. They have good weapons outside (Boldin, Smith, Dickson). I love this situation, and think it is the best pure chance to have Manning win another ring. I just don't see them dumping Flacco.
Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1
The Chiefs just don't make much sense. They don't have the weapons outside with Bowe a UFA. They have an average o-line and an up-and-down defense with a coach who is probably entering 2011 on something of a hot-seat. Matt Cassel is still owed money. I just can't see it. I also think there are teams out there that Manning sees as better bets to win than the Chiefs.
New York Jets: 25/1
The Jets are probably not signing Manning because there is still belief in Sanchez (however misguided that should be), and then there is the Eli factor. I do not think Peyton would like to play in the same city as his brother. It does limit the chance of those two ever playing (since the next time it would happen is the 2015 season), while if he picks an NFC team they could play each year, but I don't think he would ever want to be the 2nd most loved Manning in a city. Eli Manning plays for New York's favorite team. He is NYC's favorite son right now. He's Jeter. Manning would be A-Rod, but not only A-Rod, but A-Rod playing for the Mets.
The Medium Shots to Sign Manning
Tennessee Titans: 16/1
They've come out and said it won't happen, but it does make sense. The team is good. Hell, they almost somehow, inexplicably made the playoffs last year with Chris Johnson starting off slow and Matt Hasselbeck playing a big part of the season. They have a good young defense. They have a decent o-line and a running back who might get reenergized with a great QB. They have some nice WRs in Hawkins and Washington, with Kenny Britt coming back in 2012. Also, there is the college angle. Peyton was a hero in Tennessee from his college days, and some would see this as his homecoming. The reasons why I don't think this will happen (at least compared to the ones ahead) is that this would be Manning going to a divisional rival (the Colts' biggest divisional rival since the AFC South was created). He would have to play Indy twice a year.
Washington Redskins: 15/1
The only real reason is the fact that it fits everything we know about Dan Snyder. He has the money, and Peyton is everything Snyder would ever want, except unlike those other guys that he's signed over the years (Bruce Smith, Deion, Albert Haynesworth), Manning is still really good. The issue here is Shanahan. On the one hand, Shanahan has been down this road before, winning two Super Bowls in the twilight of his career (and the Elway finish is the best case scenario for Manning's final act). Shanahan would be able to give Manning a solid run game, and that defense was underrated. But Shanahan also has an ego. He likes to control his offenses, and Manning would want control of his offense. It would be a really big change for Manning to go to a place where the coach is the offense.
San Francisco: 12/1
This might be the best fit outside of Baltimore. The comparison is furthered because the problem here was the problem there, will they shove Alex Smith aside? Alex Smith, who has been loyal to that team through 58 different offensive-coordinators finally does a great Joe Montana 1981 impression and now he gets the bench? The team has the best defense in the NFL. The team will probably go out and sign a FA WR (which they have the money for) and they already have a decent o-line. It all makes sense. Jim Harbaugh would probably go for it, but I think he's tied to Alex Smith. It isn't a very strong tie, though.
The Favorites to Sign Manning
Seattle Seahawks: 7/1
The NFC West is probably the perfect division for Manning. The 49ers are obviously the huge favorite right now (unless Manning goes somewhere in the division), but each team can probably feel that it is a winnable division. The Seahawks (and the team next) have the most to gain by getting Manning. They were decent without him. Their defense was surprisingly good. They have a good weapons in Miller and Baldwin and Sidney Rice, if healthy, is a top receiver. They play in a great city to live in (this stuff might matter, and is a big plus of all the last three cities). There is little history in that city for the NFL, so he won't have to compete with some legacy of Joe Montana. He can win over Seattle easily. It works on almost every level.
Arizona Cardinals: 6/1
If Baltimore cannot happen, I want it to be Arizona. They have everything Peyton needs. They have a beast of a WR in Fitzgerald who can be a great Marvin Harrison type player for Peyton. They have two other decent receivers (Doucet, Roberts). They have a good o-line in run blocking, and a good running back in Beanie Wells. They have a defense who can get after the passer and make turnovers, which is more effective when the teams offense is better and they can blitz more. They have a coach who has done this before, as this will basically be Kurt Warner round 2.0. They have already seen to have interest as FItzgerald was "dining" with Manning (which was probably some form of a courting dinner), and Whisenhunt has already told the press that he was unsatisfied with both his QBs. This was a team that ended the season 8-8, compiled with some close losses, with John Skelton primarily. The only reason why this might not happen is if there is too much money tied up with Kolb.
Miami Dolphins: 11/2
And the team that I think are slight favorites. They are kind of like the Cardinals of the AFC. They have a defense that would probably be better with a lead. They have a decent running game, as well as a great receiver (Marshall) and some other good weapons. Manning could really do a lot with a multi-threat like Reggie Bush. The o-line is good. Plus, we get Manning vs. Brady twice a year! He gets to live in Miami, and he can be the new Dan Marino in a city really wanting a great QB again. They have no QB they are really tied to (Henne and Moore have far less money attached than Kolb), and are in a conference that is trending downwards overall. The only reason I don't want him going to Miami is because Miami overall is a bad sports town, and the Cardinals fans have really stayed in the post-Warner years (that place was rocking late last season and is a really underrated home-field advantage). I wouldn't really like Manning in the AFC, but Miami is a place he can win with.
I will update this when some of the Free-Agent moves are made, and after the draft if the matter isn't settled yet.
