So far, I have been locked in in both Football and futbol playoffs. 6 for 6 in the divisional round and championship games back in January, and so far 4 for 4 in the World Cup. Anyway, before we get to the games, here are a couple World Cup thoughts.
= We still have not seen a great game. Uruguay - Ghana was the closest thing, however the wild ending and the fact that it was 'Uruguay' and 'Ghana' will cloud it 20 years from now. The football in that game was open, attacking and entertaining, but the fact that it is, again, 'Uruguay' and 'Ghana' will probably make the games lost as time goes on. Germany - Argentina was probably the most entertaining from a schadenfreude perspective, as it was fun to see Maradona's cocky team get plasted, but again, not a great game. There is a chance with the Germany-Spain game and then the Final, assuming Holland gets through, so there is still time.
= I guess South America isn't the dominating football force ESPN thought it was. After losing just one game in the group stage, and actually putting more teams through to the quarterfinals than Europe (4 - an all time high for South America - to 3 - an all time low for Europe), the three remaining European teams all knocked out their South American foes, and the only remaining one needed a guy to miss a penalty kick to be here. In football, it is still the Europeans world.
= So much for Leo Messi. He had a nice tournament, but nice isn't good enough when you are supposed to be the best player in the World. He didn't have to go at it singlehandidly, with splendid attacking talent throughout the roster, and still didn't make a dent. The all-time stars are made in the World Cup. Pele, Maradona, Cruyff, Beckenbauer, Zidane, the five in the pantheon, all scored goals, all played in World Cup finals, and with the exception of Cruyff who looking back lost to a loaded West Germany team, all won a World Cup. Messi is still young, but realistically, he has one World Cup left to show us something. He's not the type of player who will age well, and he will be 31 in 2018, so it is 2014 or bust. He wasn't as bad as Kaka, or Rooney or Ronaldo (who was the only one of the 'big 4' who managed to score a goal), but still, he was not the best player on his team, let alone in the World. He better hope that Holland doesn't win the World Cup, because Wesley Sniejder is closing in on that FIFA Player of the Year award (it almost always is swayed largely by World Cup performance in World Cup years).
= Coaching does matter, I guess. The two most polarizing coaches were Dunga and Maradona. The were questioned coming in, and then proceeded to sweep to the quarterfinals without much adversity. That led to both of them jawing out the media, the Germans and really the fans (in Dunga's case). Of course, as Europe and Bastian Schweinsteger showed, you better back up your talk. After the dust settles, both Dunga and Maradona inherited teams that lost in the Quarterfinals to European teams, and both ended their run in the quarterfinals against European teams. Net gain: Abso-fucking-lutely nothing.
Anyway, let's get to the games.
Netherlands vs Uruguay
Holland is back in the semifinals for the first time since 1998. Considering Uruguay has actually, you know, won this competition before, it is staggering it has been 40 years since they have made the last 4. This looked to be a one-sided matchup before Luis Suarez' red card. After, it is all pointing towards the Dutch. Suarez was the key player. He was the guy that really allowed Uruguay to keep most of their players back to stifle their opponent, as he, Carvani and Forlan proved strong enough to go at the opposition alone. His absence, deserved because of his blatant hand-ball, will really cripple the Uruguayans chances.
As for those Dutch, they, as well as Spain, are poster-childs for the theory of "Win and Advance". Both Spain and Netherlands entered this tournament promoting free, attacking soccer. They both have failed to deliver on that respect, but have both delivered their fans a different kind of joy: backing a winner. Sneijder's first goal was a wiff by the usually brilliant Julio Cesar. Spain's goal was aided by three posts. Whatever, doesn't matter, they are both still playing. The Dutch will also miss some key players, as both Nigel De Jong and Gregory Van der Weil will miss the semis due to 2 accumulated yellow cards. That is a shame, but luckily for them, as they are a holding midfielder and a defender, respectively, Uruguay's best striker decided to go and get him suspended for the game as well.
The key matchup here is how Uruguay's defense contains the Robben and Sneijder pair. Those two have been really the only Dutchmen on the field, as they have played the usual Dutch football to a tee. Uruguay has been able to contain some very good players so far, but this will be their sternest test. Wesley Sneijder might just be the best player on the planet right now (David Villa is close), however there is one guy who can answer to Sneijder, and really to Holland in general: Diego Forlan.
That man, to me, has had the best World Cup of any player, and has the singular ability to score from anywhere on the field. He will really miss Suarez up top to drag away defenders, but he has the shot to make any amount of defenders potentially negligible, and as Holland proved on Robinho's goal, their defense is not all that organized. I would think that Forlan, in what is the biggest game for his country in about 60 years, will come to play.
In the end, Holland is just too good, and on too good of a karmic form, to drop this game. Really, they should be playing Ghana, who probably would win the karma battle, but Uruguay will be so hated by the crowd in the semifinal (because of what was perceived as a dirty play by Suarez that led to Africa's demise - it wasn't, since if Asamoah Gyan just hit his penalty, it wouldn't have mattered), that Holland will almost be like an adopted African nation. Plus, they are due. They really are. After another dramatic flameout in Euro 2008, all the dutch were probably thinking, "Here we go again" when Holland fell behind in the ninth minute, but that wasn't a usual soft team. That Holland against Brazil resembled their hated rivals, Germany, in their mental resolve. Plus, since 1990, either Brazil, or the team that beat Brazil has made the final.
Netherlands 3 Uruguay 1
Spain vs Germany
This has a chance to rival Germany's thrilling semifinal loss to Italy (yes, those two teams can combine to play some fucking dramatic games - including the 1970 semifinal which entered extra time at 1-1, and left it at 4-3). These two teams were the best in Europe in 2008, when Spain beat Germany 1-0 in the Euro 2008 Final, and they are probably the best still today. Germany has a shot at revenge, and Spain has a shot to beat Europe's biggest acheiver to shed the label as Europe's biggest underacheiver. Again, the key here is Spain.
I still believe, regardless how this game goes or even if Spain wins the World Cup, that Vicente Del Bosque screwed up. He should not have sat David Villa in favor of Sergio Busquets. The reason he did so was to put another holding midfielder to shore up the Spanish defense, but that is pure garbage Spain's offense and possesion control is its defense. In Euro 2008, Spain played one holding midfielder, Marcos Senna, and played David Silva, Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez in front. With Silva acting as a deadly winger, they were able to play David Villa up top and play a true two-striker formation, which was deadly. Spain still technically plays a 4-4-2, but it is really a 4-5-1 (or more accurately a 4-4-1-1), with David Villa playing a wing. Him playing a wing has really cut off the distribution to Fernando Torres. Torres isn't fit from end of season knee surgery, but the real problem is Spain just cannot get him the ball because he is on an island, and Villa who drops down is a far easier option. Villa needs Torres up top, but Torres doesn't need Villa there. Truthfully, Spain was at its best in the Final when Villa was hurt. They are at their best playing a true 4-5-1, with either Villa or Torres up top (though Torres is more used to being a lone striker), but either way, Vicente Del Bosque cannot sit Torres for this game.
Torres has to play, he's a big game player. He only scored one goal in the Euro 2008, and that was the only goal in the Final against Germany, where he outran and outmuscled the German dfense singlehandidly to a ball and curled it around Jens Lehmann. He has a great record at Liverpool of scoring against the other big three. He has the pysicality to play against the physical German defense. Del Bosque cannot give into the pressure of sitting him, especially if he is just replacing him with Llorente (it is more understandable if he's putting in Fabregas instead). He comes up big for Liverpool, and he came up huge for Spain in 2008. He should start.
As for their Germans, their ability to counter Spanish talent with their own talent will finally allow the Spanish game to open up. The Germans won't play nine behind the ball, eight in the box defense like Paraguay, or Switzerland or Honduras before them against Spain, because they don't have to. Plus, the German defense is more about ball pressure. The Germans will probably not be able to counter-attack as well as they did against Argentina, because of Spain's ability to play offense without overcommitting men forward. However, the Germans are the Germans, and both Klose and Podolski, like they always do, have been outstanding. Also, in Bastian Schweinsteger, Spain finally meets a player with the ability to take over a game without scoring, much like their own duo of Iniesta and Xavi. Schweinsteger is not Cristiano Ronaldo or Messi. No. He is Germany's Wesley Sneijder, or more accurately, the Germans' version of Andrea Pirlo for the Italian team in 2006. He has the ability to push forward, and keep Xabi Alonso, and most likely, Busquets back. This really is a fascinating mixture of two great teams. This has the chance to be a classic, a real classic, and I think it will be.
Spain 2* Germany 1 (* - in extra time)
