NFL 2013: Top 200, #50-21

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50.) Demaryius Thomas (WR-DEN)

Well, Josh McDaniels seems to do much better drafting wide receivers than QBs. Demaryius Thomas didn't really have a chance with Tebow spraying balls everywhere, but Peyton Manning comes in and Demaryius becomes dominant. His 67% catch rate is excellent for a guy that was hovering around 50% up till this year. Thomas was able to run more intermediate and short routes, including sweet screen pass TDs in the opener and the divisional round loss. Thomas will probably retain his targets more than Decker with the arrival of Welker, which should do nothing but make him even better in 2013.


49.) Larry Fitzgerald (WR-ARZ)

Larry Fitzgerald struggled in the relative sense in 2010-11 with the Kolb's and Hall's and Anderson's as his QBs (90-1137-6 and 80-1411-8 those two years), but he couldn't continue that magician trick to the Skelton's and Lindley's. Fitzgerald was the worst, by DYAR, WR in the NFL in 2012, which shows you just how interconnected football is. With Carson Palmer, who is an actual living QB with some amount of talent, Fitzgerald should have a nice season for once.


48.) Vernon Davis (TE-SF)

There was a story coming into the playoffs that Davis was upset about how he was marginalized in the offense with Kaepernick at QB. Of course, he had a great playoffs, especially the final two games, and those stories go away. He is still the most gifted TE in the NFL outside of Gronkowski, but Davis never misses games. His catch rate has always been good, and his playoff performance portends some big things for Vernon Davis in 2013.


47.) Vince Wilfork (DT-NE)

The days of true Nose Tackles are dwindling as most schemes want players who can play both the nose and the 4-3 DT (which WIlfork can do), but Vince was about as good as they come. He's been less of a pass rushing threat since the Patriots moved to more of a base 4-3, but his run defense is as good as ever. He still commands double teams all the time. The Patriots picked him over Richard Seymour, and it is hard to say they failed in that choice in any way.


46.) Terrell Suggs (OLB-BAL)

I still think Terrell Suggs came back too soon as he was not even close to normal Terrell Suggs for the portion of the regular season he did play. He was back to being about 80% of prime Suggs in the playoffs and he should be all the way back this year, but it was sad seeing Suggs as muted as he was for much of 2012. With Pual Kruger, they need the 2011 Suggs back, when he was second in the league in hurries and had an all-around dominant season. We could get it, and as a lover of the Ravens defense, I hope we do.


45.) NaVarro Bowman (ILB-SF)

Patrick Willis vs. NaVarro Bowman is such a close contest. In the Bowman section (which is still to come), I'll talk more about him in generalities, so here I'll do a comparison. Both are surprisingly mediocre in FO's run defense metrics, but amass such a huge amount of plays it hardly matters. Bowman and Willis were essentially equals in pass coverage, which is so important given the rising importance of teh slot and TEs in NFL offenses. Bowman was used less as a blitzer and had a few more broken tackles. Basically, instead of being about as good as possible for a 3-4 ILB like Willis, Bowman was about 90% as good.


44.) Jake Long (T-STL)

Jake Long had his worst year at the wrong time (heading into free agency). Of course, his worst year was still quite good and he got paid nicely, but Jake Long definitely had his worst season. Of course that season means that he gave up four sacks and 14 pressures, instead of like two sacks and 10 pressures. He did have one of his best run blocking seasons. The Rams are counting on him to save the promise of Sam Bradford. Big job, but he should be able to do it.


43.) Earl Thomas (S-SEA)

Defensive Backs from Texas are a precarious selection in the draft, just see the careers of Quentin Jammer (long, underwhelming career for a #5 pick), Aaron Ross and Michael Huff. Earl Thomas has ended all that little trend quite nicely. He had a great rookie season in 2010 and has gained steam since then. Teams just avoid throwing to Thomas, as his 26 targets are incredibly low for a Free Safety, which speaks to how well he takes away deep routes. Thomas is the guy who allows Browner and Sherman to play the way they play. He's the glue that holds that whole thing together.


42.) Brandon Marshall (WR-CHI)
Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler can make some sweet, sweet music together. His advanced stats aren't too pretty mainly because no one else can even make decent music with Jay Cutler, so Marshall was targeted 195 times. He was a great red zone threat (11 TDs) and at times was uncoverable. The other advantage of pairing Marshall and Cutler is that with Jay, Marshall seems to act better. Maybe that is just coincidence and Marshall has his mental issues that he has alluded to under control. Either way, Marshall seems happy and in control off and on the field.


41.) Calais Campbell (DE-ARZ)

Calais Campbell had an excellent season for a 3-4 DE. Of course, we live in a world where JJ Watt exists in human form, so it gets lost, but 6.5 sacks with 18.5 additional hurries is other-worldly as a DE. He was very good against the run once again and was more active than any 3-4 DE other than a certain Houstonian. To further to Watt comparison, he was 2nd in the NFL in tipping passes with 7. So what if Watt had 160% more. Campbell shouldn't be compared to Watt but be compared to his role, where he is about as good as any team should expect.


40.) Jamaal Charles (RB-KC)

Lost in what Adrian Peterson was doing, Jamaal Charles returned from an ACL tear with another stellar season. He still has the highest yards per carry in NFL history at 5.8. Of course, last year it was 5.3, so that number will eventually drop down as his career goes on, but he remains one of the few every-down backs in the NFL. He has never been any sort of dynamic receiving threat which is odd given his speed, but one cannot be perfect. Charles should have a nice season given that he had no help on that Chiefs offense in 2012.


39.) Logan Mankins (G-NE)

Through injuries and age, it is likely Mankins will slip to being the 2nd or 3rd best Patriots lineman soon, but he continues to be an exceptional guard. He was pinned with just 0.5 sacks and 3.5 pressures allowed all year long (he did play only 10 games, but those numbers are still great). With his performances in previous years, he still holds a super high ranking in my mind, and when he is on the field he still performs well, but he doesn't seem as quick as he used to. Still, his career is a testament to how good Dante Scarnecchia is as an O-Line coach.


38.) Matt Ryan (QB-ATL)

Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco will be linked for being drafted in the same draft back in 2008, and now Flacco has a ring, while Matt Ryan finally got his first playoff win. Because of the 'TEH RINGZZ' argument, many have Flacco as the better player, but that is insane. Ryan threw it more often than ever in 2012, and not only held his value over more throws but had his best season to date, with a career high 68.6% completion percentage and a career high yards per attempt. And then, in that same playoff loss to the 49ers, Matt Ryan was almost undoubtedly the best player on the field that day. His time is coming, and even if it isn't, he is still better than Joe Flacco.


37.) Antonio Cromartie (CB-NYJ)

Football Outsiders' notes that Antonio Cromartie is one of just two Corners to be in the Top-10 of both success rate and yards per pass allowed in two of the last three seasons (the other in Asante Samuel). This year he was exactly #10 in both, but he was without Revis alongside him for much of this year. Without Revis, Cromartie needed to step up and he did just that, playing some of the best football of his life. He was even good in run defense. If he just remembered the names and ages of his kids two summers ago, he probably would have been thought of a lot better around the league by fans.


36.) Jason Pierre-Paul (DE-NYG)

Jason Pierre-Paul fell from 16.5 sacks in 2011 to 6.5 in 2012, so why does he only fall six spots? Because his hurries only fell by .5 (from 25 to 24.5), so that sack total, like a batter who has an abnormally low BABIP, is bound to go up next year. He was better as a run defender in 2012 than in 2011. He didn't get as much help from the surrounding players in 2012. Jason Pierre-Paul had some lingering issues (though that could be deflection) and is still just 24. There is no reason to believe that the 2011 season is as good as he will ever get. There is far less reason to believe that 2012 is his true level of play.


35.) Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA)
In a league with few every-down backs, Lynch is right up there with any in the NFL. He had a career best 5.0 yards per carry, as he flourished after the Seahawks switched to a more read-option attack. He had the 2nd most DYAR of any running back (behind you-know-who), and this was all after a very good 2011 season without the benefit of Wilson and a good passing game to take pressure off of him. Lynch is even an awesome red zone back; not many holes in his game overall.


34.) Tamba Hali (OLB-KC)

Tamba Hali actually had his worst season in some time, but given his incredible play with no help from 2010-11, I can forgive 'just' 9 sacks and 15.5 hurries. Hali is now 30, and while that position generally ages well, his peak might be over. He looked a step slower at times in 2012 and this was with legitimate players around him in the defense like Justin Houston. Still, as a reward for peerless performance with no help, Hali is always a star in my book.


33.) Chris Long (DE-STL)

Chris Long was picked #2 in the same draft that Jake Long was picked #1. Of course, Matt Ryan was picked #3, but it is hard to say the Rams failed with the Chris Long pick. He led the NFL with 33.5 hurries in 2012, and if he turns even 25% of those into sacks he could get around 17-18 sacks in 2013. Of course, he's a dominant run defender for a 4-3 DE, which is basically just the cherry on top of an amazing Sundae. 


32.) Justin Smith (DT-SF)

Yes, Justin Smith had a down year plagued with late-season injuries. Of course, he was downright dominant in 2011 after years of good to very good play before that, so we can excuse his year with 11 hurries and 61 run stops as a flukey low year. That is still a very good year for a 3-4 DE that isn't always allowed to play as freely as JJ Watt. Of course, Justin's real impact was felt when he was out and the 49ers defense semi-fell apart.


31.) AJ Green (WR-CIN)
AJ Green was downright dominant early in the season, but fell of a bit late. Of course, so did Andy Dalton, and as Larry Fitzgerald proves every day in Arizona, when a receiver suddenly falls off it is often because of the QB. AJ Green also gets the Steve Smith treatment where he gets double teamed every play as the Bengals have few other targets worth caring about. He still has more physical gifts than any receiver not named Johnson or Jones, but he needs to get on page even more with Dalton for it all to come together.


30.) Marshal Yanda (G-BAL)

Marshal Yanda had about as good of a year at Guard as possible. He didn't allow a sack and was noted for just one blown block on a running play as per Football Outsiders. If you want to pick a bone with him it is the six penalties, but those fluctuate (he had far less in 2011). The Ravens line has gone through a lot of change over the past three seasons, but Yanda's been a constant and about as good a constant as the Ravens could have hoped for.


29.) Ndamukong Suh (DT-DET)

The worst thing that happened to Ndamukong Suh (other than repeated Personal Foul penalties) was his 10 sacks as a rookie. He only had 4 in 2011 and now 8 in 2012, but that doesn't mean he is any worse. He had a ridiculous 27.5 hurries in 2012 (after 18 in 2010 and 24 last year), and he had his most dominant run season yet, ranking #4 in stop rate out of all lineman. His best stat might be his 22 QB hits, which was up from 7 his first two years. Ndamukong Suh in many ways had his best year yet. If that team can just start winning close games, he might get back on that HOF track once again.


28.) Charles Tillman (CB-CHI)

Peanut Tillman was a trendy DPOY pick before JJ Watt went all Reggie White on the NFL, but Tillman's season was still quite special. He had a ridiculous 10 forced fumbles. Sure, that is a fluke, but it still happened. My favorite Tillman stat is that he has six interceptions over the past two seasons, and returned five of those for TDs. He ranked #7 in yards per pass allowed, which is the mark of a true Cover-2 coverage maven. Considering the success of guys like Champ Bailey and Ronde Barber, it is conceivable to see Tillman playing quite well for some time to come.


27.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB-PIT)

It is unclear whether Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers offense really fits what Tood Haley is trying to do (namely, throw short more), but Ben had another really nice season, with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio. Ben also cut his sacks down to a new low. As long as Ben can stay healthy, which is a huge question mark, he remains the most underrated QB in the NFL, which is shocking considering he has two rings and a better playoff win % than Tom Brady (10-4 > 17-7). He is becoming more and more of a pure pocket passer, but as his stats show, he can do that damn well.


26.) Ray Rice (RB-BAL)

Ray Rice definitely looked tired in the playoffs, as Bernard Pierce behind the same line ran a lot better in the AFC Title Game and Super Bowl, but Ray Rice remains the best dual-threat at running back in the NFL. He had 61 catches on 83 targets to supplement his constantly great running and underrated blocking. Bernard Pierce will continue to steal attempts away from Rice, but that may keep Rice fresh later in seasons. Now if only he could stop fumbling in playoff games...


25.) Duane Brown (T-HOU)

Duane Brown's reputation is built off his great play from 2010-11, and while he was very good in 2012, he wasn't excellent as he was those two years. He gave up three sacks and had 7 blown blocks on running plays. These are fine numbers for all but like five left tackles, but he is one of those five. Chances are it was a fluke. He is still just 28, meaning that he should have another four years or so at this high, high level. 


24.) Cameron Wake (DE-MIA)

It is time to start realizing just how good Cameron Wake has been since he came into the NFL back in 2009. This past year was his Magnum Opus, though. 15 sacks, 27.5 hurries, incredible activity in the run game (admittedly to average results), just unbelievable play all year long. He made a seamless transition to a 4-3 DE after spending his first three years as a 3-4 OLB. Bill Parcells didn't do a whole lot great in Miami other than signing Chad Pennington and not ordering his team to stop running the gimmick that was The Wildcat, but Cameron Wake should be his lasting memory of his Miami tenure, unearthing this gem from Canada.


23.) Julio Jones (WR-ATL)

Greg Little, Brandon Weeden and a pick used in the package for Phil Taylor. That is what Cleveland got in the trade that allowed the Falcons to pick Julio Jones. The Falcons were slammed for the deal then, but when he went off on the 49ers for 11 catches and 182 yards and two TDs in the NFC Championship Game (I was wrong when I said Matt Ryan was the best player on the field), no one sent the Falcons apologies. We all should. Jones will soon take over from White the plurality of Matt Ryan's targets, and that will only be a good thing for the Falcons. They have the best under-30 WR in the NFL not named Megatron.


22.) Eric Weddle (S-SD)

Move over Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, there is a new best safety in the NFL. Eric Weddle had a very good year in 2011. In some ways, against the pass Weddle was better in 2010 & 2011 than this past year (he was Top-10 in success rate and yards allowed in both years, dropped to 15/8 in 2012), but this was the first time Weddle was great against the run. He was Top-10 in both stop rate and yards allowed on run plays. He was avoided more this year, the sign of a truly great safety. Weddle is just entering his Age 28 year, so there is a long time left to pad that resume. Because of the team he plays on he will likely never get the praise he deserves, but he is undeoubtedly the best safety in the NFL right now.


21.) Ryan Clady (T-DEN)

Ryan Clady had his best year in 2012. Of course, the job of a Left Tackle when Peyton Manning is your QB is a bit easier than when Tim Tebow is your QB. He was noted for just one sack and just four blown blocks in the run game, which was the lowest of any full-time Broncos starter. He barely got any help all year long thanks to the help Orlando Franklin needed on the other side, but Clady still managed to play well enough that the Broncos had no choice but to sign him Long Term.

NFL 2013: Top 200, #100-51

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100.) Robert Griffin III (QB-WAS)

Robert Griffin was really great in his first season, but he had a lot of help. First, he was incubated in a passing scheme that almost shied away from tough throws. He led the league in % of attempts that were screen passes. He fattened up his passer rating by a bunch of non conversions of safe throws on 3rd down. Still, his running impact made that zone-read offense work. He made those lineman seem better. He made Alfred Morris look better. He has a brilliant arm when given the opportunity. Robert Griffin needs to get better, but that doesn't mean I'm hating on his awesome rookie season. I hope he recovers from that knee injury. I hope he's terrorizing every team but my teams for years to come.


99.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)

Robert Mathis, much like Dwight Freeney who ranked a lot lower, was a career 4-3 DE plugged into a 3-4 OLB position. His transition there worked and didn't. Given his slight frame and reputation, it was shocking to see how good he was against the run (ranking #10 and #11 in Football Outsiders' two main rush defense statistics). On the other side, he wasn't as good rushing the passer. He did get eight sacks, but didn't get too many pressures outside of those sacks. Mathis fared better in the 3-4 than Freeney, and it could be that in his second year playing it he will adjust better to the pass rush aspect of his role.


98.) Jonathan Sullivan (C-MIN)

Jonathan Sullivan was a lot better in 2012 protecting Christan Ponder than he was opening holes for Adrian Peterson, which is bizarre. Football Outsiders' has him for more blown blocks on run plays than any other center. That sounds bad, but his one sack allowed, two penalties and just 3.5 pressures allowed are great, especially when protecting a QB like Ponder. He's only 28, so he still has some more years left in his prime, which is a nice thought for a Vikings fan.


97.) Bobby Wagner (ILB-SEA)

Bobby Wagner performance in his first year is lost in the impact of the plays he had. He didn't have many sacks or pressures, and wasn't great at stoning runners near the line. No, where Wagner's value came from was the incredible volume of those numbers. He made more plays than almost any linebacker in the league, constantly around the ball. The recognition was there, but the speed and reaction wasn't, which is why he didn't have the splash plays. Those are coming.


96.) Andy Levitre (G-TEN)

Andy Levitre was the top free agent guard this past offseason, and the Titans swooped him up in hopes of him helping turn around their run game to the consistent force it was back in 2009-2010. Of course, it would help if Levitre's main skill was run blocking, which it isn't. Levitre main value comes in him being about as good a pass protecting left guard as their is the NFL. His run blocking is OK, but with the state of the Titans line and Chris Johnson, they needed a premier run blocker. Jake Locker should be ecstatic with the Levitre pickup, but CJ1K, and more importantly his fantasy owners, might not be.


95.) Brian Cushing (ILB-HOU)

If you want to pinpoint the moment that the Texans dropped from 'best team in the NFL' to 'team that could be exploited by any really well planned offense', it was when Brian Cushing tore his ACL on a cut block last year. Cushing had a great 2011 season and started out really well in 2012 as well (very good numbers in run and pass defense), but one cut block by Matt Slauson and it all ended. He's back and supposedly healthy, and if so the Texans might just become more than just JJ Watt on defense.


94.) Champ Bailey (CB-DEN)

It's amazing that Champ Bailey was so good in his 12th season in the NFL (playoff game against Torrey Smith aside). He was a Top-20 corner in both success rate and yards per play allowed, and ranked #15 in stop rate against the run. For a corner to do this at 35 is close to unprecedented. The Broncos have planned wisely to potentially make up for any slip by Bailey this season, but at this point would anyone even be shocked if that slip doesn't come and he continues being great?


93.) Brandon Flowers (CB-KC)

Brandon Flowers was staggeringly good in 2012 for an outside corner by Football Outsiders' metrics (#6/#5 in success rate and yards per play allowed). Of course, this was off the heels of some less than stellar seasons, so 2012 either was the start of a turnaround or a fluke season to intrigue those who still think he can be something special.


92.) Chad Greenway (OLB-MIN)

This is a legacy pick for someone who could well drop off the list by 2014. He is getting older and is now slightly injury prone. Greenway's best trait used to be his incredible versatility, and while the Vikings still use him as a Jack of All Trades, he doesn't do any of those particular trades as well as he used to. He still had a tidy 25 defeats (tied for 12th in the NFL), but he was in the mid-30s two seasons ago.

 
91.) Tim Jennings (CB-CHI)

For years, Tim Jennings was one of the Colts that Colts fans loved to hate on. He was terrible, he couldn't tackle, he was everything wrong with the Bill Polian way of building a team. That's what he was known for in Indy. Well, I guess Polian wasn't too wrong. Jennings has been damn good since coming to Chicago, and he had his best season yet in 2012. The 9 interceptions probably isn't repeatable, but his 21 passes defended is. He gets targeted a ton, but held his own with a Top-25 success rate. Since I never believed any of those three statements at the beginning, I'm happy Jennings is having himself a nice little career.


90.) LaMarr Woodley (OLB-PIT)

LaMarr Woodley had another injury plagued campaign in 2012 and for the first time there were rumblings that Woodley's injury issues may be due to lack of work and not just bad luck. He swears he is in the best shape of his life after rededicating himself, and unlike the scores of 35-year old baseball players that give that same hollow claim, Woodley is still just 29. He almost can't do any worse than 6 hurries in a half season and his run defense play didn't slip. There is reason to believe he will turn it around.


89.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DE-NYJ)

Muhammad Wilkerson was the Jets 1st round pick in 2011, and he had a great second season, being one of the most disruptive 3-4 DEs in the NFL. Actually, if you take away the Tyranasaur named JJ Watt, he was probably the best. His 19 hurries are in the neighborhood of Watt, and his run defense metrics were Top-10 level. The Jets have waited for a premier front seven player for their 3-4 and they finally found one in Wilkerson... just in time for Rex Ryan to probably get fired after this season.


88.) Andrew Luck (QB-IND)

If Andrew Luck once again is statistically below Wilson and Griffin in efficiency in 2013, then maybe I'll move him below those other two, but Luck didn't have any of the help that Wilson (defense, running game) and Griffing (running game), and won the most games (tied with Wilson), with by far the most responsibility. He threw it a ridiculous amounts of time, and when you factor just how much he threw it, his 18 interceptions don't look too bad. With hopefully better o-line play in 2013, we might see his numbers match just how good he is.


87.) Michael Roos (T-TEN)

Michael Roos is nearing the end of his career, but he still has what made him great in the past: great technique and great feet. His not the physical giant that Walter Jones or Jonathan Ogden was, or even what Joe Staley or Joe Thomas is, but Michael Roos has been able to ably defend Vince Young and then Jake Locker's blindside, and those are two QBs that aren't really known for their quick release.


86.) Vincent Jackson (WR-TB)

Vincent Jackson didn't make Josh Freeman into a good QB (not many are that good to accomplish that feat), but Josh Freeman didn't make Vincent Jackson into a bad WR. Jackson still was able to get open deep more than anyone with his average speed should. His 19.2 yards per reception was higher than any year when he was with Philip Rivers. He reduced his drops and had his best YAC season yet. Vincent Jackson was the rare great major WR Free Agent signing. Too bad for that whole Josh Freeman part.



85.) Daryl Washington (OLB-ARZ)

Daryl Washington followed up his breakout 2011 season with an even better 2012 season, as he led the Cardinals with nine sacks. He only had 8 additional hurries, so that sack number is probably higher than we should expect going forward, and it would be nice if he was better in his run defense responsibilities, but that wasn't his role in Ray Horton's defense. No, his role was to rush the passer from the unconventional spot a 3-4 ILB, and he did it as well as any other at that position in a while. His overall numbers were about as good in 2011, so this isn't a fluke year.


84.) Mike Iupati (G-SF)

Mike Iupati made his first all-pro team, but he was actually better in most ways in 2011. His play dipped when Kaepernick took over, especially in the run game. He was still great in pass protection, giving up just 1.5 sacks, but he also had an increase in penalties. Iupati is still a key cog in a totally loaded line (there are a few 49ers lineman to come), and being just 26, he still has time to get better.


83.) Jerod Mayo (ILB-NE)

Jerod Mayo, by Football Outsider's numbers, were quite middling in 2012, but he had a really nice 2010-2011 by Football Outsiders. Mayo also did more as a pass rusher in 2012 than he did previously. He's in that Bobby Wagner stage where he just made a bunch of plays, and was an incredibly sure tackler, and even though very few of the plays he made were for few yards, the fact that he made so many is still truly valuable.


82.) Hakeem Nicks (WR-NYG)

Hakeem Nicks struggled with injuries again and it is getting close to the point where we have to wonder if he's just injury prone at this point. For Eli Manning and the Giants offense, I hope that isn't true. He missed just three games in 2012, but was noticeably less than 100% for basically the entire season. He didn't have the explosiveness in 2012 than he had in spades in 2010-2011. If he's healthy, he can make Eli Manning a better player, he can make Victor Cruz a better player, and he can help the Giants avoid another 2nd half slump. They need Nicks healthy.


81.) Jarius Byrd (S-BUF)

Jarius Byrd is the first player who's Football Outsiders' charting numbers are totally colder on him than my perception of Byrd. The only huge number Byrd put up is his 20 defeats, which are really high for a true Free Safety. Byrd has basically nothing around him of true value in the Bills back-seven (a term I like to think I coined for the linebackers and secondary), so he could easily be avoided or tasked with too much in coverage, which seems the case at times. Still, he's reaching the potential he flashed with a nine-pick rookie season in 2009.


80.) Julius Peppers (DE-CHI)

The Bears had the best defense in the NFL last season. For much of the year, it was playing at a historically good level, the levels once reached by the 2008 Steelers and 2002 Bucs. Peppers was a big part of that incredible early season performance by the defense. His sacks and hurries dropped off as the season wore on, but the same is true of every part of the Bears defense. Still, solid play against the run with 11.5 sacks and 14.5 hurries all the while being double teamed whenever possible is still really good.


79.) Percy Harvin (WR-SEA)

Percy Harvin's nine-game season in 2012 was good enough that if you extrapolate that season over 16 games, he would have been among the Top-5 in DYAR. His 73% catch rate is damn good, considering Ponders' was just 62.2% overall. He was used more efficiently this season with mostly short routes, which is exactly what the Seahawks need and what they'll do with him. Health is obviously the only question mark, and with reports of a possible strained hip, it hasn't started well, but there is a reason why Percy Harvin was talked about as an MVP candidate when the Vikings started 5-2.


78.) Lardarius Webb (CB-BAL)

Until his injury, Lardarius Webb was having a phenomenal season, with close to league leading success rates and yards allowed, with close to league leading stats in run defense as well. He was able to play as a top slot nickel and play well outside. He was the future star of the Ravens defense, and then that ACL tore. If he returns to pre-injury level, he's going way up this list, but it is hard to see someone return that quickly, that well from an ACL injury.


77.) Wes Welker (WR-DEN)

In a way, the people who think Welker was a product of New England as well as the people who think he won't miss a beat in Denver will both be right. Because of Decker and Thomas, he won't catch as many passes, but then again, the last two times Manning has had a viable slot receiver to play with (Brandon Stokley in 2012 and Austin Collie in 2010) had the two highest catch rates in the past five years and had insanely efficient seasons. That is what I would expect from Welker, to be used more downfield than he ever was in New England.


76.) Anthony Spencer (OLB-DAL)

Anthony Spencer had just one half sack less than DeMarcus Ware in 2012, and had a higher stop rate against the run by Football Outsiders, and even was quite successful dropping back in coverage. So, why is he ranked (spoiler) about 60ish spots lower than Ware? Because Ware had 22 hurries and Spencer had 12, and because Spencer doesn't command the attention that Ware does. Still, Spencer had a fantastic year and his trajectory is trending up while Ware's may be beginning to trend down.


75.) Jonathan Joseph (CB-HOU)

Jonathan Joseph struggled with injuries for much of 2012 which accounted for the notable slip in his play. He was never fully healthy even when he came back, and his numbers struggled for it, but one average season isn't enough to counteract his great 2011 season or his solid play before that in Cincinnati. He still transformed that Texans defense, and did it even before JJ Watt became a living Kaiju.


74.) Nate Solder (T-NE)

Solder, like most Patriots' first-round picks, has been extolled as the next line of Belichick genius since his being drafted, but unlike Brandon Meriweather or Patrick Chung, I don't think the similar routine of everyone realizing they aren't all that good will happen with Solder. His 20 hurries allowed are a problem, but his lack of actual sacks allowed and his dominant run blocking as a Left Tackle has made him worth the hype.


73.) Patrick Peterson (CB-ARZ)

When Patrick Peterson was drafted, he was seen as a future star with a slight emphasis on the future, that he was still a little raw. Well, the future only took one year to come. He was OK as a rookie (great in Special Teams), and he just improved to being great as a sophomore. Oddly, he was bad in special teams, but his real value is his play as a corner. He was #11 in success rate despite getting targeted all the time. He showed great ball skills, nabbing seven picks. Peterson is a star in the making.


72.) Roddy White (WR-ATL)
Roddy White went from an only above average 2011 season, where the effects of being force-fed the ball from Matt Ryan finally started to take its toll, to being an efficient machine in 2012 as Ryan finally realized that the way to maximize Roddy White is not to throw it to him 10 times a game. His targets plummeted from 180 in 2010-11 to 143, but his catch rate was a career high, as was his yards per catch. White will continue to benefit from the emergence of Julio Jones, and since he was never all that fast, his advancing age shouldn't be too hard to overcome.


71.) Ike Taylor (CB-PIT)

Ike Taylor is 33, which makes sense since he was there in the days of Kendrell Bell. He's seen so many Steelers defenders come and go and remains a really good player. He has been asked to play more man in recent years, which he's taken to quite well. His pass defense numbers were both in the Top-20, and they were outright dominant in the second half of his abbreviated season. He has always been a great tackler, which shows in him allowing 3.9 yards per rush in his direction. The late season injury is a concern going forward, but that was the first injury of note for Taylor.


70.) Anthony Davis (T-SF)

Anthony Davis isn't as good in pass protection as his reputation makes people think, but he's been absolutely dominant in run blocking for two years now. He had just two blown blocks on run plays according to Football Outsiders, which is really insane. It is his 16.5 blown blocks on passing plays that is more worrisome. Still, out or a right tackle, you would take sometimes careless pass protection for dominant run blocking.


69.) Jason Witten (TE-DAL)

The good news: Jason Witten set the NFL record for catches in a season by a Tight End with 110, and did it with a tidy little 74% catch rate, so he wasn't getting Roddy White targets. The bad news: he caught those 110 passes for just 1,039 yards, giving him an ugly (even for a Tight End) 9.4 yards per catch, and his blocking is slowly getting worse. Still, he's about as good as any Cowboys fan, as well as Tony Romo, could have hoped for at 32.


68.) Lance Briggs (OLB-CHI)

When does Lance Briggs start to get some sort of love as a Hall of Fame candidate? He had another stellar season, with 7.5 hurries (his most in years), great pass coverage numbers, including 8 passes deflected, and 25 defeats. Briggs is seemingly ageless, doing this all at 32, while basically not missing a snap. He's not the candidate Urlacher is, but I think Briggs is definitely a strong, strong candidate in his own right. It is just hard to see them putting two LBs from the same team in when neither won a Super Bowl.


67.) Antoine Winfield (CB-SEA)

Antoine Winfield had one of those seasons that shouldn't be possible for a 36 year old corner that has played his career in such a physical manner. He was #8 in yards per pass allowed, and ranked in the Top-10 in both run defense stats for corners. He wasn't close to this good in 2010-11, which is why he's down here in the 60's. Still, he's the best #3 corner in the NFL, which is how he'll play in Seattle. Of course age is a concern, but when you can be the most active corner in the NFL at 35, age might not really be a question.


66.) Lawrence Timmons (ILB-PIT)

Timmons took a step forward when LaMarr Woodley took a step back (and James Harrison took three steps off the team) with his best season to date. LeBeau used him as a blitzer more in 2012 than ever, and he responded with 6 sacks and 19.5 hurries, the most for any inside linebacker. His run and pass defense numbers are all good. There's no real weakness in his game, and he has a dynamic ability as a blitzer that the James Farriors and Larry Foote's never really had. That's a dangerous mix for opposing offenses, especially if Woodley finds his game again.


65.) Sebastian Vollmer (T-NE)

Sebastian Vollmer's back may be a ticking time bomb, as that is the only explanation of why no one even attempted to sign him when he was a UFA this past offseason. Still, as of now he is healthy and is arguably the best RT in the NFL. He actually had a slightly down 2012 season, but was outright dominant in 2011 which he was undoubtedly the best right tackle in the NFL. In Brady's advancing years he needs great protection more and more and Vollmer has consistently given it to him.


64.) Max Unger (C-SEA)

Unger quietly has played four seasons in the NFL, dating back to the gone-but-often-forgotten Jim Mora year in 2009, but like so many other Seahawks, his game has exploded in the Pete Carroll era. He allowed 0.5 sacks in 2012, while being penalized just twice all year long. Supposedly he was invaluable at making line calls and working with Russell Wilson, and as we've seen so many times, the Center-QB relationship can be as important as any on a team.


63.) Dashon Goldson (S-TB)

Dashon Goldson was probably overranked on my list last year (this is why I don't write where the player was ranked a year ago), but he went out and had a better season in 2012 than he did in 2011. He ranked #3 in both of Football Outsiders' pass coverage metrics. He was probably the best free safety in the NFL last season. He takes his talents to Tampa, where they'll need him and Darrelle Revis to shore up one of the worst pass defenses I've ever seen. It will take all of Goldson's considerable skill to stop Julio Jones from going OFF against the Bucs.


62.) Arian Foster (RB-HOU)

Arian Foster seemed a bit overrused at times in 2012, but still managed to have a good year even with the up-and-down play of the Texans offensive line and teams gameplanning more and more to stopping Foster and not the Schaub passing game. He was used less in the passing game, but I think that could change with better O-Line play allowing Foster to go out to run routes. With a hopefully healthy Ben Tate being in the backfield, Foster should be used less in 2013, which could make him as good as he was in 2011-12.


61.) Eli Manning (QB-NYG)

Obviously, he didn't keep his level from his breakout 2012 season. Some of this was the nagging injury to Hakeem Nicks and the continuing decline of the Giants O-Line, and some of it was just bad luck. It is unlikely that Manning goes three straight games without a passing TD again like he did last year, just as it is more likely Hakeem Nicks stays healthy in 2013 than not. Eli Manning will probably never put up Aaron Rodgers type numbers, but he should put up Matthew Stafford numbers while being more efficient and less voluminous.


60.) Reggie Wayne (WR-IND)

Reggie Wayne didn't have great efficiency numbers, but a lot of that is Andrew Luck trying to force him balls when he wasn't really open. He had a ridiculous 196 targets last year. That number will probably go down, but his overall numbers might not drop as much as a 35 year old WRs' numbers would. He is closing in on getting HOF numbers, something that I never imagined happening when Peyton Manning first had his injury back in 2011. Of course, I never expected him to be this good this late in his career.


59.) Luke Kuechly (ILB-CAR)

Luke Kuechly was an absolute monster in 2012, probably the best rookie season by a linebacker since Patrick Willis in 2007. Luke Kuechly had a ridiculous 96 stops, and 27 defeats, made more impressive that just one of those was a sack. He just made a slew of really great tackles. His pass coverage numbers are good also, ranking #14 in success rate. Rookie LBs that have dominant seasons generally are future stars, and Luke Kuechly definitely seems to be in that mix. For once, the 'most NFL-ready player' in a draft was absolutely NFL-ready.


58.) Joe Staley (T-SF)

Joe Staley was arguably the best run-blocking left tackle in the NFL, and when you consider that the QBs he blocked for aren't exactly the best at avoiding sacks (Kaepernick is better than Smith, but it isn't like he's a Manning). His six penalties as a left tackle is another number that must be delighting the face of Jim Harbaugh. He built off a breakout 2011 season with another great All-Pro season.


57.) Clay Matthews III (OLB-GB)

Clay Matthews, welcome back to being awesome. After a so-so 2011 (following two great seasons to start his career), Clay Matthews was a pass rushing monster once again. 13 sacks, 20 hurries, with good play against the run, add that all up to his past successes, and the fact that he is constantly double teamed given the other OLBs are Erik Walden-types, and you get a great player. Matthews dropped into coverage less than ever, but he's even shown that skill in the past.


56.) Ed Reed (S-HOU)

Is this ranking partially based on what Reed has done for most of his career and not his decidedly slightly above average play last year? Yes, and I'm OK with that. Ed Reed real value was in how he made every QB the Ravens faced in the playoffs avoid throwing deep. Kaepernick didn't, and Reed promptly picked him off. At his age, he isn't much of an upgrade over Glover Quin in Houston, but his overall leadership should still be valuable for the Texans.



55.) Asante Samuel (CB-ATL)

Asante Samuel, by Football Outsiders, was about 95% as good as Darrelle Revis from 2008-2011, but his play finally slipped a bit in 2012. He is still decidedly average in run support, but that makes him a bit underrated in that area since most people believe he is allergic to tackling. Samuel still ranked Top-10 in success rate, but he gave up more yards per attempt this season than most. Samuel needs to sustain his level of play from 2012 at the least since the team lost most of their other established corners.


54.) Eric Decker (WR-DEN)

Eric Decker was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL in 2012, with his 392 DYAR tied for 3rd in the NFL, behind just Dez Bryant and the two Johnsons. His 69% catch rate on 123 targets is really impressive for a guy who doesn't have the best of hands (7 drops). His numbers will probably suffer more than Demaryius Thomas with the arrival of Welker, but Manning in the past has shown the ability to get three different WRs looks at once, and Decker can play the Reggie Wayne of 2004 role for the 2013 Broncos about as well as Reggie could.


53.) Jimmy Graham (TE-NO)

Jimmy Graham couldn't come close to matching his ridiculous 2011 season, as his catches dropped by 14, his yards by 328, his yards per catch by 1.6, and his DVOA and DYAR dropped as well. Two things keep his ranking this high. First, his 2011 season counts. I can't just imagine that away because he had merely a good season and not an all-time season. Reportedly, he was slightly injured last year, but most people that have a drop in production like to cite injuries to explain them. He is still a matchup nightmare, and with Sean Payton back, he might get more looks.


52.) Joe Flacco (QB-BAL)

I gave Eli Manning a really nice bump after his stellar, Super Bowl winning 2011 campaign, and Flacco gets a more moderate bump for his. The main reason is that while Flacco's playoff performance this year was great, his regular season most certainly wasn't. Flacco, in my opinion, just needs to become the focal point of that offense. There is a reason he hasn't thrown for 4,000 yards yet, but most of the reasons aren't his talent. It is there. The playoff Joe Flacco is real, but whether he can leverage the playoff success into a dominant season remains to be seen.


51.) Justin Tuck (DE-NYG)

Justin Tuck definitely took a step down from a dominant 2011 season, but he was still a top interior pass rushing force. He had 10.5 hurries, mostly from the interior of the line. Tuck's run numbers were down, but his impact was more felt with all the other Giants lineman having really good seasons against the run. At 30, he could be nearing the end of his peak, but what a peak it was. And to think people were confused why the Giants signed him for six years right before Super Bowl XLII.

NFL 2013: Top 200, #150-101

You know the drill, here's the second 50 of the Top-200

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150.) London Fletcher (ILB-WAS)

London Fletcher is entering that Mariano Rivera zone where you expect him to be about the same for another 15 years. His play against the run declined quite a bit in 2012, but his pass coverage was as good as ever. He was great in impact plays, with five interceptions (which led the Redskins) and two sacks in the Week 17 win over Dallas. With Ray Lewis gone, Fletcher becomes the dean of NFL Linebackers, and knowing him, he might hold that until Patrick Willis takes over in 2020.


149.) Doug Martin (RB-TB)

 Doug Martin was really good in 2012. How good? Only two rookie running backs ever had more yards from scrimmage as a rookie. One is a Hall of Famer (Eric Dickerson), and the other is a potential borderline Hall of Famer playing in one of the best offenses (Edgerrin James). Martin was unusually good at receiving for a rookie running back, with a 70% catch rate. Opposing defenses will plan on stopping Martin more in 2013, so it will be interesting to see if his second season is as good as the second seasons of those two guys.


148.) Donte Whitner (S-SF)

Donte Whitner was awesome in 2011 and merely good in 2012. Splitting the difference puts him about here for 2013. His numbers against the run were fine, but he was more of a liability in pass coverage, notably in the Super Bowl. Still, 2012 was the outlier among his last few seasons, and one season doesn't make a trend. He still is just 28, so there is reason to believe that 2013 will be closer to his normal level of play.


147.) Chris Harris (CB-DEN)
Chris Harris was a Top-20 corner against the run and a Top-20 corner against the pass. To do all of this in the lost makes it even more impressive. He's probably going to be playing the slot again with Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie manning the outside spot, and that is where Chris Harris thrives. He was borderline brilliant at times in 2012, and he was one of the few players on Denver's defense to play well in their Divisional Round loss to Baltimore.


146.) Kyle Rudolph (TE-MIN)

Kyle Rudolph was basically the only dependable weapon that Christian Ponder had in the passing game after Percy Harvin got hurt, and the Vikings seemed to know it. They used him all over the field, as a slot receiver, on the outside, in-line and even as a fullback. He was even a far better blocker than people realize. Rudolph size makes him a Gronk-like monster in the red zone. If he ever had a Brady-like person throwing him the ball, the whole country might realize.


145.) Devin McCourty (S-NE)

Devin McCourty's stats are a little confusing since he played about half the season as an average corner and then switched to Free Safety which he played really well. McCourty was awesome at cornerback in 2010 and then putrid at corner in 2011. Well, he split the difference and changed the position and returned to something resembling the rising star he was a rookie. McCourty at least limits the long completions the Patriots hemorrhaged in 2011 and early 2012.


144.) Antonio Brown (WR-PIT)
Antonio Brown, because of Mike Wallace's up-and-down play and the lack of any run game, had a down year in 2012, but there is a reason why the Steelers chose him over Mike Wallace, and that reason is 100% because he is cheaper. Antonio Brown is a fine route runner, a perfect fit for that offense that asks a lot of him (screen passes by the dozen), and even blocking, which he is really good at. If Ssanders can stay healthy and that run game get an actual lead back, he could return to what he was in 2011.


143.) Antoine Bethea (S-IND)

 Antoine Bethea somehow hasn't made an interception since 2010. That's hard to believe, but it underscores just how easy it is to pass on the Colts outside secondary players underneath. Bethea still keeps that secondary from being the worst in the league with his range deep. His role has changed as the defense has, and he's actually allowed to enter the box these days, but that hasn't changed his effectiveness.


142.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)

It is hard to describe Rivers' 26 TD 15 INT season in any other way than this: the worst season a used-to-be-brilliant QB has had in a long time. You can easily make the argument that entering the 2011 season, Philip Rivers was right there with Aaron Rodgers as the best under-30 QB in the league. Since then, Rodgers has become a future Hall of Famer and Rivers has stalled and now started to decline. Still, with targets that could stay healthy, his play should get better. He's far from bad, and while he's in risk of falling off the list with another bad season, I have a feeling 2013 will be better than 2011 or 2012.


141.) Maurkice Pouncey (C-PIT)

The great overrated man, Maurkice Pouncey is finally coming close to the odd super-hype he received as a rookie in 2010. His blown blocks are still higher than other top-flight centers, but he's limited his penalties and stayed healthy for the first time in his career. He's young at a position that ages better than most o-line positions and with the upcoming starters David DeCastro and Mike Adams, the Pittsburgh O-Line may finally get good enough to extend Roethlisberger's career.


140.) Alfred Morris (RB-WAS)

The zone-read works with any QB that has a speed of Griffin, but the real key is having a running back capable of making defenses focus on him. If Morris wasn't any good, that offense doesn't work at all. Morris, however, is really good. He was overused a tad, so it will be interesting to see if he flames out like other Shanahan guys, but the one he most resembles, Clinton Portis, remained a damn good player for quite a while.


139.) Carlos Rogers (CB-SF)

Carlos Rogers had a statistically odd season. He did really well in average yards per play allowed, ranking in the Top-20 in that against both the run and pass. However, his success and stop rate was #61 against the run and #47 against the pass. It's hard to understand how this works, but I guess he just made a lot of decent plays for medium gains. Rogers is getting older in age, but his game has never truly been about speed. In that defense, he should stay good for a few more years at least.


138.) Derrick Johnson (ILB-KC)

Derrick Johnson put up another solid, if slightly less than spectacular season playing for another bad Cheifs team. He didn't get the recognition that his defensive mates Tamba Hali and Justin Houston got, but wasn't that far off performance wise from those two. He was great against the run again, and while he was rarely asked to rush the passer, he managed to put up 26 defeats, which had him tied for 13th, a list full of top players. 


137.) Robert Quinn (DE-STL)

Robert Quinn had a breakout second season, with 10.5 sacks and 13 more hurries. That second number lags far behind his (higher ranked) opposite side rusher in Chris Long, but let's remember that Quinn is just 23. He and Chris Long make up the best current 4-3 DE duo and Quinn's play should only get better. Jeff Fisher never really had two three-down DEs in his time in Tennessee, but he has that now and he'll be loving it.


136.) Antrel Rolle (S-NYG)

Antrel Rolle might just be the most underrated Free Safety in the league. He's never going to get the credit he deserves mainly because he was a semi-disappoint at corner in Arizona, but ever since his arrival in New York, he's yet to miss a game and been one of the only stable presences among that up and down secondary. He was great against the pass in 2012, ranking Top-20 in both success rate and yards per pass allowed. He even put in some fine work at nickelback. Great player, the final star in a line of them from the U.


135.) Gerald McCoy (DT-TB)

Gerald McCoy is known for being the guy picked right after Ndamukong Suh. He was injured for much of 2011, and while he stayed healthy in 2012 he still isn't as dynamic as what many expected. Much of his success and praise has been garnered from those "he's disruptive and creates plays for others", but those types of things are generally founded in truth. They are in this case, as McCoy was just that for a defense that played great against the run during 2012.


134.) Frank Gore (RB-SF)

Frank Gore can't keep doing this forever, right? He came back from two disappointing seasons in 2010 and 2011 with a great 2012. His success wasn't even a byproduct of the switch to Kaepernick, as his numbers were actually better when Smith was the starter. Gore was used really effectively in the run game, with a 78% catch rate which is great even for a running back. The 2012 season might have been a last ride in the sunshine for Gore as he's crossed the deadly 3-0, but what a ride it was.


133.) Matt Schaub (QB-HOU)

There's a lot of things I don't understand about the criticism of Matt Schaub of his performance late last year when the Texans slumped to a 1-3 finish. The main one was that he was a game manager type and couldn't carry the offense, that he couldn't succeed without a running game. Well, I direct you to the 2009 Texans. That year, Schaub went 396/583 (a 67.9% completion rate), for 4,770 yards (which led the league - 8.2 y/a, 2nd in the NFL), and 29 TDs. The Texans run game that year? They had a 3.5 yards per carry. That was a long time ago, but I think his average year was more about no alternative to Andre Johnson and an injury.


132.) Matt Kalil (T-MIN)

Matt Kalil comes in and Peterson runs for 2,097 yards. Cause and effect? Probably not, but Kalil had a great rookie season at Left Tackle. He was great in pass protection all year, in a division filled with really good edge rushers. His run blocking got a lot better as the year wore on. His six penalties are really good for a rookie Left Tackle. He didn't miss a snap and was basically as good as the Vikings could have hoped for when they picked him 4th overall.


131.) Lavonte David (OLB-TB)

Lavonte David's rate and yards allowed numbers don't spell that of a rookie sensation, but what does is the sure number of date points. His 79 stops were in the Top-20 league wide, and his 30 defeats ranked fifth in the NFL. The Tampa Bay D-Line was good enough in run defense that if a runner got to David's level, it was already some distance downfield, but if he did, David tackled him, almost every time.


130.) Matthew Stafford (QB-DET)

Matthew Stafford is an study on how we perceive QBs. He was known first for being oft-injured, until he wans't (much like Matt Schaub). When he finally had his first fully healthy season, he threw for 5,000 yards and was seen as an upcoming mega-star. In 2012, he stayed healthy again and nearly threw for 5,000 yards again, but somehow that became a disappointment. In the end, the Lions may do better not having to throw it 720 times in 2013 and let Stafford get some rest on that arm. In the end, though, Stafford is still really good firmly placed in the Top-10 of NFL QBs.


129.) Steve Smith (WR-CAR)

Steve Smith will probably never have a true 2nd receiver alongside him to take away double teams. I think Panthers fans should just move on from the idea of that ever happening. It is finally starting to effect Steve Smith, as his catch rate dropped to near 50% (it was below 50% in 2010, but those Panthers were terrible at QB). Steve Smith can still somehow get open deep despite being the only good receiver on Carolina, but NFL teams may get better at stopping that too.


128.) Dennis Pitta (TE-BAL)

I had a debate on the interwebs with a Ravens fan about who would replace the Anquan Boldin role in their offense after his unceremonious departure. He finally landed on Dennis Pitta as his answer, and honestly, it makes a lot of sense. Pitta is not a great blocker (they have Ed Dickson for that), but he is great at using his body as a receiver. He was great in the playoffs last year, including what arguably was the biggest non-Jacoby Jones hail-mary catch they had, with a catch on 3rd and 11 backed up on the Ravens 4 yard line in OT. Flacco has good chemistry with Pitta, and with Boldin gone an 80-catch season is not that ridiculous.


127.) Jordan Gross (T-CAR)

This is more of a reputation pick than anything else. Jordan Gross is not what he once was (the key cog of the NFLs best run game from 2008-2009, and really good in 2011), but he still isn't all that bad. He still gets penalized incredibly infrequently for a left tackle, and doesn't give up many sacks while protecting a pretty sackable QB. Gross is really old now, as he started Super Bowl XXXVIIII as a rookie ten years ago, and for him to be close to very good ten years on is a testament to his ability.


126.) Jason Hatcher (DE-DAL)

Jason Hatcher, in a world where JJ Watt didn't exist, would be considered probably the best pass rushing 3-4 DE in the NFL. He had 22 hurries and 11 hits by Football Outsiders numbers, which is stellar for someone at that position. Of course, it would be nice if he was better than merely good against the run, as that is where he's more needed in a lineup that already has really good pass rushers. I guess he'll play that Warren Sapp role in Monte Kiffin's 4-3 defense, but Sapp was dominant against the run as well.


125.) Louis Vasquez (G-DEN)

 Louis Vasquez, in all honesty, had about as good a season as you can expect from an under-the-radar guard. He didn't commit one penalty all year long. He allowed just a half sack, and Football Outsiders has him down for just nine blown blocks (really good for someone who played 1,017 snaps). The scary part is blocking for Peyton Manning is even easier than blocking for Philip Rivers. He has a chance to get a lot higher on this list in 2014.


124.) Jared Veldheer (T-OAK)

He came from little Hillsdale College four years ago, in the last Al Davis draft of his life. That draft wasn't great (not a surprise given most of Davis' drafts in the 2000s), but getting Veldheer in the 4th round was a steal. He's developed into a rock-solid left tackle, being good in the run game and great in pass protection. He has surprisingly quick feet for someone of his size. Reggie McKenzie rid the Raiders of almost all of Davis' picks from his last few years, but Veldheer was and is a keeper.


123.) Mike Wallace (WR-MIA)

Mike Wallace was really average in 2012, totally miscast in Todd Haley's scheme. Of course, most of the Steelers receivers were miscast in that scheme, but that is a discussion for another day. I'm giving Wallace something of a pass because he was, in all seriousness, arguably the best receiver in the NFL over 2010-2011, with 132 catches for 2,450 yards and 18 TDs, Wallace was the league's premier deep threat at receiver. The Dolphins are banking on his 2012 being fully about scheme mismatch and not about a falling off into his future level.


122.) Russell Wilson (QB-SEA)

Seems low for a guy who had a 100.0 passer rating and was among the best QBs in the second half of the season? Yeah, it probably does. But other than possibly Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Russell Wilson had one of the easiest jobs of any rookie QB. He had a monster running game, a very good o-line and a dominant defense. Luck had none of these things, and RGIII had the first and somewhat the second. I still wonder about Wilson if Lynch gets hurt or his o-line gets hurt. Or it may be East Coast Bias.


121.) Russell Okung (T-SEA)
Replacing a living legend is never easy, especially when that living legend happens to be the best player in your franchises history. That is what Russell Okung walked into in 2010, replacing (though hot directly) Walter Jones, a probably first-ballot Hall of Famer. Okung struggled through injuries but finally stayed healthy in 2012 and played at a pro-bowl level. He was always talented and good, but staying on the field for the whole season, and having a great offense around him gave him the national exposure. He needs to cut down on penalties (11 in 2012), but he was great at stopping pass rushers, especially early in the year when Wilson was still being covered up.


120.) Thomas Davis (OLB-CAR)

I don't know if any defensive player in the NFL performed in the way they were asked of any better than Thomas Davis. His job was to cover tight ends and slot receivers, and he was probably the best or second best (after Patrick Willis) linebacker in the NFL in pass coverage, ranking #6 in success rate and #2 in yards allowed. He was bad against the run, but that isn't part of his job description the way he is used. Finally healthy after rotten luck regarding ACLs, it was great to see Davis playing as well as he did again.


119.) Colin Kaepernick (QB-SF)

What's there to say that hasn't been said. Kaepernick is probably the most physically gifted of the three zone-read QBs that lit the NFL on fire during the second half of last season. I think RGIII is more dynamic, but more of an injury risk. Kaepernick is bigger, stronger and has a true cannon. The one worry I have is what happens if he doesn't have a run game. Also, his red zone numbers are quite bad, as he struggles with timing throws in crowded space (what normally happens in the red zone). He had no idea what to do when blitzed quickly in the red zone late in the Super Bowl. Still, having that as your only negative is quite good.


118.) Casey Heyward (CB-GB)

Casey Hayward quietly had an incredible rookie season at corner for the Packers. He wasn't targeted a whole lot, but when he was, he gave up nothing. Hayward ranked #1 in success rate among defensive backs and #5 in yards per pass allowed. Even his run numbers were good. If he has a season close to that in 2013, he's moving way, way, WAY up this list. The Packers found their Woodson replacement.


117.) Sean Lee (ILB-DAL)

Sean Lee's injury ultimately doomed the Cowboys defense in 2012, but he was really good up till that injury. Lee could really explode playing the MLB role in Kiffin's Tampa-2, as his instinctiveness and coverage abilities are perfect for that defense. As miscast many of the lineman are in that defense, Lee is perfectly fitted into his future role. As long as he stays healthy (and last year was his first injury-plagued season) he should continue to be a star.


116.) Trent Williams (T-WAS)

I'll never forget Trent Williams for making Roger Goodell call him 'Silverback' when announcing that he was picked in the 2010 draft. It took him blocking for RGIII for him to jump to 'really good', but he was really good in 2011, allowing just 4 sacks and just 9 hurries for a QB that needs blind side protection more than most. As long as he lays off the hooch (he was suspended for four games in 2011), the Redskins have their Left Tackle to go along with their QB.


115.) Ryan Kalil (C-CAR)

Kalil got hurt midway through 2012, which might have had as much to do with the run game deteriorating as anything else. He was awesome when he did play (didn't give up a sack and just two pressures), and he has been very good for years, but at his age and position, injuries could become a recurring concern. For now, he stays as the best Kalil brother, but my money's on that changing by 2014.


114.) Jahri Evans (G-NO)

Jahri Evans job is more important than most guards. Because Drew Brees is short (if you don't know, so is Russell Wilson), he needs a clean pocket in front of him to see throws more than other QBs (who are tall enough to easily look over their lineman). Evans lost Carl Nicks alongside him, but was great once again in 2012, if a little worse than before. It hurts to go from being the 2nd best guard to the best one, and have more responsibility placed on you, but Evans was able to be about as good in pass protection as before. Where he fell of a tad was in run blocking.


113.) Mario Williams (DE-BUF)

After getting a massive contract, Williams season in 2012 was seen as a relative bust, and it was worse than his usual standards in Houston, but Williams got the brunt of the blame for what was honestly the failure of the rest of the Buffalo defense to play well. Williams himself was among the bust run stopping DEs in the NFL, and did record 10.5 sacks with 18 more hurries. He looked a step slower at times, but it is easier to look a step slower when the rest of the team isn't helping you out all that much.


112.) Darnell Dockett (DT-ARZ)

Darnell Dockett, as he's admitted himself, was miscast in Ray Horton's scheme (one can only hope the same thing doesn't happen to the talent that is Jabaal Sheard), as he was asked to plug blockers in the run game and deflect blocking attention away from everyone else, which is why his 1.5 sacks isn't as bad as that number would suggest. He was still excellent against the run and got a fair amount of hurries. Age is a question at this point, but in a new scheme were he hopefully will be used in a better way, should allow Dockett to return to being one of the premier 3-4 DEs in the NFL.


111.) Tony Gonzalez (TE-ATL)

Maybe it is because of Rob Gronkowski's un-holy start to his career that Gonzalez had his best season in years (and decided against retiring), trying to put the career TEs numbers out of reach. Gonzalez was an average posession receiver in 2010-2011, but he turned back the clock with a great 2012 season, with his highest catch rate of his career, catching 75% of the passes thrown his way. For someone his age to rank #1 in DYAR for TEs is just stupid. Sure, it was only because Rob Gronkowski got hurt, but that is part of Gonzalez's brilliance, as he's missed two games in his career.


110.) Kevin Williams (DT-MIN)

Kevin Williams was really good last year. There's no point in discussing his merits for this list. The more interesting one is discussing his merits for the Hall of Fame. He's now played ten seasons, all but one at Defensive Tackle. He's missed just four games in his career, and put up 56.5 sacks and been a first-team all pro five teams. That is the resume of a pretty close to sure-fire Hall of Famer. Somehow I feel like he's been massively underrated.


109.) Paul Kruger (OLB-CLE)

Paul Kruger might be Jarrett Johnson, Adalius Thomas or any of the other OLBs that played opposite Terrell Suggs and next to Ray Lewis, or he may be different. Who Knows? For Cleveland's sake, I hope he does what he did in 2012, which was be one of the best run defenders in the league at OLB, while also forcing a tidy 21 hurries. Kruger is still just 27, so his best years should be coming. The problem was those last two sentences could have been said about Adalius Thomas, too.


108.) Justin Houston (DE-KC)

Justin Houston is overshadowed by Tamba Hali (for good reason, Hali is awesome), but he jumped another level in 2012, with 10 sacks (actually one more than Hali), and 22.5 pressure (7 more than Hali). Of course, it helps explain this when teams were double and triple teaming Hali last year, but that is still great production from a OLB who is just 24. Andy Reid hasn't had a layer like Justin Houston in a while, a guy that I wish the late Jim Johnson could have used in a number of imaginative ways.


107.) D'Brickshaw Ferguson (T-NYJ)

Ho-Hum, another solid year from Brick. It's becoming lost in the woefullness of Mark Sanchez, but D'Brickshaw Ferguson has put up about 4-5 very good years in a row. He's not great, and probably never will be, but he rarely gets penalized (just two last year), doesn't get straight out beat for sacks, and is great in the run game. Not much more you can ask from a Left Tackle.


106.) Troy Polamalu (S-PIT)

Troy Polamalu is really starting to get hampered by injuries, which is not surprising given the Bob Sanders-ian way he's played safety. Last year was the nadir, where he missed ten games, but when he did take the field Polamalu played his best since in a while. In 2011, the story on Troy was that he was past his prime. In 2012, it was that he's still great, but only for so many games. His pass coverage numbers are ridiculous (77% success rate, 3.4 yards allowed - both Top-5 numbers) but he didn't play enough to qualify. Therein lies the issue with Polamalu.


105.) Dez Bryant (WR-DAL)

105 may seem low, but I have ranked just 14 receivers ahead of Bryant. Of course, that may seem like a lot, but there are a glut of really good receivers in the NFL right now. Also, while Bryant has the gifts to be incredible, and played like that at times in 2012, there were some notable issues with Bryant. First, was his penchant to dominate bad defenses and go away against good ones. The only Top-half defense he played well against was Baltimore (which was worse at the time - that was the game Lardarius Webb tore his ACL in mid-game) and Chicago (where he put up most of his yards in garbage time, and had a notable error where he failed on a hot-read that led to a pick six). There's still work to do, but the potential is there.


104.) Daryl Smith (ILB-JAX)

Daryl Smith missed almost all of 2012, but he was so good in 2010-2011 that he still gets a spot on the list. He's back in Jacksonville where his best play was, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the old Daryl Smith again. He led the NFL in defeats just two seasons ago, and is still relatively young. He'll get lost in Jacsonville on a terrible team, but seeing him play linebacker is worth at least giving 1% of your NFL attention to the Jaguars.


103.) Jordy Nelson (WR-GB)

Injuries shortened Nelson's season to just 12 games, but this was his first major injury in the NFL. It's clear to this point that Nelson is the top outside WR for the Packers, and his incredilbe timing with Aaron Rodgers (cue up about a dozen back-shoulder throws to Jordy over the years) should allow him to do an admirable job playing the Jennings role. Nelson is hyper-efficient, getting the 6th best DVOA for wideouts a year after leading all wideouts. If he stays healthy, he could have a monster season in 2013.


102.) Elvis Dumervil (OLB-BAL)

Elvis Dumervil should be perfect in Baltimore. With Terrell Suggs, among many other good run stuffers, Doom can focus on what he does best, rush the passer. His 11 sacks and 23 hurries aren't at the Von Miller level (because Dumervil is not a God amongst Men), but it is better than any non-Suggs OLB for the Ravens since Adalius Thomas. He's getting older, but should fit perfectly in Baltimore. This means nothing about his play, but it still is shocking that a fax machine snafu has landed him in Baltimore.


101.) Victor Cruz (WR-NYG)

In 2011, when he was healthy, an d more importantly when Hakeem Nicks was healthy, he was the most dynamic slot receiver in the league. And not in the "he's dynamic because we have to come up with a reason why getting rid of Welker makes sense" way that Amendola is, but in the 18.7 yards per reception way. That dropped in 2012 to the still respectable 12.7 yards per reception. What Cruz really showed in 2012 was that he wasn't a one-year wonder. There was no way he was repeating the ridiculous 2011, but he held his own as the focus of opposing defenses. He's not going away, especially with that shiny new contract.

NFL 2013: Top 200, #200-151

Yes, it is back for the 4th time. The Annual Top 200 Players in the NFL list. A few housekeeping notes before I start:

1.) Huge hat tip and credit given to Football Outsiders. As far as I know, they were doing advanced proprietary (as in, not calculatable by an, no pun intended, outsider) for football before anyone else. In recent years, sites like Pro Football Focus are becoming increasingly popular, but I'm a Football Outsiders loyalist. Their stats are great, their numbers are great to debate about, and their annual Football Outsiders Almanac is brilliant. I couldn't even think about doing this list without it. I use and cite a lot of their statistics in the list. Here's a quick rundown of what they all mean (but really, just use their site).

• DVOA: A percentage based stat that basically says how many percent better or worse than the average is a player/team/situation. It can be broken down to home/road, by down, by quarter, and even by situation. It's their main stat.
• DYAR: Essentially the counting-version of DVOA, but only for position players. Mostly useful to judge players who attain a whole lot of snaps or datapoints to calculate DVOA.
• Stop: A play by a defensive player (or team) that stops the offense from acheiving a successful play.
• Stop rate: The percentage of plays by a particular defender that are stops.
• Average yards allowed: a defensive stat showing the average yards per play that defender allows on runs or passes that involve him.
• Success Rate: The percentage of passing plays a certain defender is targeted that did not result in a successful play for the offense (so, a success for the defense).

2.) This list isn't forward looking, so there is no inherent advantage given for players who are younger or who could get substantially better.

3.) The list is not based solely upon 2012 performance. What a player does in 2011, 2010 and even before matters. Of course, a player great in 2012 but bad in 2011 would be ranked ahead of the reverse. What this basically means is that just because a guy like Greg Toler was quite good in 2012 after being middling his whole doesn't mean he will make the list over a guy like Cortland Finnegan, who was worse than Toler in 2012.

That's about it, let's get to the list.

200.) Robert McClain (CB-ATL)

Every year there are a few great nickelbacks in the NFL (oddly, there are nary a one great nickelback in the music industry). Last years ones drop off (hello, Alterraun Verner) and new ones crop up. Well, here's a new one. Robert McClain, in what was a packed secondary in Atlanta, rose up and performed brilliantly in the slot. He had the 3rd highest success rate (64%) and the top yards per pass allowed (4.4 ypa). Those are ridiculous stats. There is no chance, in what is a far emptier secondary, he does those numbers again, but it was fun while it lasted.


199.) Janoris Jenkins (CB-STL)

Jenkins started the season slowly, but starting with his breakout game against Arizona where he returned two picks for scores, Jenkins ended the season playing really well. His overall FO numbers are quite good (33rd in ypa allowed), especially when looking solely at the second half of the season. Corners are rarely good in their 1st season, so Jenkins above average play is something to really build off of.


198.) Brandon Spikes (ILB-NE)

The Patriots are slowly trying to build their defense to emulate what it was back in their title winning days. Those defenses were always great against the run, and Spikes' value lies there. He is quite awful in pass defense (although his stats are merely below average), Spikes has become one of the best run stopping linebackers in the NFL. Spikes lack of value in pass defense will limit his eventual ceiling, but the Patriots have other ways to attempt to fix that. 


197.) Chris Johnson (RB-TEN)

Chris Johnson once again was stopped behind the line too much, had too many plays of negative three or four yards, but as always, some of that is terrible blocking. Some of it is bad playcalling. And some of it is Johnson. But mixed in a season that had a fair amount of terrible games (Week 1, he had four yards on 11 carries), he had a great middle. Johnson still has value in the passing game, and if Jake Locker will ever work, he needs the Chris Johnson that roamed from 2010. He's not as far off from that as many think.


196.) Mike Adams (S-DEN)

Rahim Moore is the more famous Broncos safety, for reasons I never want to remember, and while he was generally good throughout the season, Mike Adams was the real glue on the backend of the Broncos secondary. Adams was used a lot like the Giants used Antrel Rolle, to do a little bit of everything. He ranked in the Top 30 for secondary players in allowing yards on runs and passes in his direction. He is a sure tackler in a secondary that doesn't really shine in that area. If only he was the guy retreating on that cold night in January.


195.) Brandon Myers (TE-NYG)

Brandon Myers used his excellent season in Oakland where Carson Palmer force-fed him passes due to the revolving door at receiver into joining the Giants white-guy TE pipeline. Eli Manning has always been good to his TEs, and Myers should do great in that offense where, unlike Oakland, there are receivers good enough to constantly drag coverage away from Myers. His blocking is even good. The Giants always seemed to unearth TEs in the draft, but now they've poached a nice one.


194.) Stephen Bowen (DE-WAS)

 With Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker out for much of the year, the Redskins needed other pieces to step up, and Stephen Bowen responded with an excellent year. He had two monsters suck blockers away from him, and was put in position to make plays and that he did. He was in the Top 3 of both success rate and ypa allowed on runs. Of course, this is ridiculously better than last year, so Bowen's rise in 2013 probably was somewhat of a fluke.


193.) Scott Wells (C-STL)

Scott Wells didn't play much in 2012, but when he did, Wells was great. Sam Bradford's numbers in the games that Wells played were far better than when he was out, and while that isn't total causation, it makes this ranking sound better. Wells had been one of the few men to block for Aaron Rodgers not to suffer injury after injury, so it is reasonable to suggest he'll never be as injured as he was in 2012 again, and if that is the case, Bradford would be one step closer to that breakthrough he seemed to always be on the cusp of.


192.) Denarrio Alexander (WR-SD)
 
During Philip Rivers' time in San Diego, there's been a free flow of high-DVOA receivers. Alexander is the latest in them. He doesn't have the multi-year track record that Vincent Jackson had, but he doesn't have the injury concerns that Malcolm Floyd had (Floyd was equally DVOA crazy last year). Alexander had a ridiculous end to the season, and his catch rate on downfield throws was fantastic. Considering that Rivers himself should be better in 2013, Alexander should as well.


191.) Jonathan Goodwin (C-SF)

Jonathan Goodwin didn't have a blown block that led to a sack (courtesy of Football Outsiders Game charting). There's not many centers that can say that, and the ones that can usually play for QBs that aren't as sackable as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Neither one is exactly Aaron Rodgers in teh 'hold-onto-the-ball' category, but Goodwin's feat remains great.


190.) Tyson Clabo (T-MIA)

Tyson Clabo is the latest departure from what was once a rock-solid stable offensive line in Atlanta. He enters Miami off his worst season of the past four or five, but he still doesn't allow too many sacks (especially when you factor in how many times the Falcons threw it last year). He avoids penalties pretty well to boot. His best days are almost obviously behind him, but he's been one of the more consistent RTs in the NFL over the past half decade.


189.) Anthony Castonzo (T-IND)

Castonzo blew a lot of blocks according to Football Outsiders. Of course, he was left on an island all the time by a coordinator who loved to leave no one in to block (and when he did, it was usually to help RT Winston Justice). Castonzo has a tough job blocking the blind side of a neo-Roethlisberger in Luck, and much like Ben's parade of LTs, his numbers don't look good. His isolated performance, though, does.


188.) Carlos Dunlap (DE-CIN)

Carlos Dunlap was used primarily as a 3rd-down free rusher on the Bengals dominant D-Line, and despite those limitations, he performed well enough that Cincinnati essentially chose to keep him instead of Michael Johnson. Oddly, it is his performance against the run that grades out better than against the pass, but if you prorate his limited sacks over the amount normally faced by a three-down player, his pass rushing numbers start to look a little more diruptive. All I have to say is in choosing a U of Florida pass rusher in 2010, the Bengals chose right and the Pats chose very wrong.


187.) Steven Jackson (RB-ATL)

Despite getting older, and despite being the focus of every opponents' gameplan to stop the Rams, Steven Jackson has continued to play solidly. Now he joins a team where he will be the 4th player of concern for opposing defenses, but also one where the line hasn't allowed for a good run game since about 2009. Jackson should be better, the Falcons run game should be better, but I don't think 1+1=3 here in Atlanta.


186.) Greg Jennings (WR-MIN)

Greg Jennings should be exhibit A of how fast a receiver can fall. Jennings was great in 2011, he was marginal in 2012. This is a ranking based partly on past performance from before the 2012 season, and partly on the idea that Jennings was never fully healthy in 2012. I don't see how going from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder can't possibly help his numbers either. Good chance he's off the list in 2014.


185.) Antonio Gates (TE-SD)

Gates once again battled injuries, which has been a recurring theme since his incredilbe, injury-shortened 2010 season. He's still managed to catch over 60% of his passes and 7 TDs as Philip Rivers' main red zone target. Not a lot to say here other than enjoy the last few years of a future Hall of Famer, as we all should with any future Hall of Famer in his final years.


184.) Bernard Pollard (S-TEN)

If Bernard Pollard only suited up against the Patriots, he would be in the Top-50. Instead, he does play the other 30 teams in the NFL, and his performance is never as impactful against those. He's still a quality player that has turned from a running trivia answer ('Who tore Tom Brady's ACL?') into a great run defender at safety (#13 in yards per play allowed against the run) and an increasingly decent cover man.


183.) Will Beatty (T-NYG)

Eli Manning makes his blindside protector look better. How else do you explain David Diehl being a two-time Super Bowl winning Left Tackle. Still, Will Beatty was really good in pass protection last year. He was finally healthy, and going forward, he'll need to stay so as Chris Snee and David Baas' careers end slowly.


182.) Maurice Jones-Drew (RB-JAX)

The negatives are he had a strange, mysterious injury that probably still hasn't been fully explained (nor has the injury fully healed enough for MoJo to actually want to play for the Jags again), but when you have a DVOA around zero playing for a putrid team and an even worse offense, that shows that you still have something to give. MoJo Drew has definitely passed his peak, and his size has always made him a lingering injury waiting to happen, but for one of the most consistent running backs, it will take more than one strange year to knock him off completely.


181.) Vontae Davis (CB-IND)

Vontae Davis' numbers were not good last year. There are two reasons why he makes this list. First, this list isn't purely based off of 2012 performance, and secondly he got better when he returned from injury (as FO notes, his success rate rose from 22%, which is awful, to 53%, which is solid). Vontae Davis needs to be the guy he was at the end in Miami and was late last season going forward to stabilize that defense.


180.) Keenan Lewis (CB-NO)

Keenan Lewis was really good last year against both the run and pass. There is a long history of corners in Pittsburgh playing well there and leaving, and doing little in their next location. Some of those have even returned to the Three Rivers in relative disgrace, like Bryant McFadden and William Gay. All I'm saying is now that Keenan Lewis deservedly earned himself a contract, I wouldn't be surprised if he does nothing in Rob Ryan's overhyped defense and returns to Heinz Field in 2015 with his tail between his legs.


179.) Dannell Ellerbe (ILB-MIA)

Dannell Ellerbe, playing in the position that pumps up your status more than anything else (playing ILB next to Ray Lewis), was somehow underrated in his 2012 performance. Football Outsiders ranks him in the Top-20 in both success rate and ypa allowed on defense, and he also was a valuable blitz weapon. He's changing to a 4-3, but that transition shouldn't be what holds him back. What does is the same thing that held Jamie Sharper, Edgerton Hartwell and Bart Scott back: playing next to Ray Lewis and in front of Ed Reed is a lot easier than not doing those things.


178.) Chris Canty (DT-BAL)

He's an aging, sure tackling, penetrating, slightly injury prone tackle who is leaving one haven of defensive (line) play in New York to another in Baltimore. This was one of my favorite underrated moves of the offseason. Canty was lost in New York with the media attention given to the more sack-happy (and quotable) lineman in New York, but he won't be in Baltimore.


177.) Wesley Woodyard (ILB-DEN)

So yes, Woodyard wasn't great against the run, but with Von Miller (who's a little bit higher up this list) doing his thing on the other side, it didn't much matter. Woodyard's true value was being awesome against the pass. He was a Top-10 linebacker against the pass in both of Football Outsiders' main two stats. Woodyard is given a lot of responsibility in that defense, especially on 3rd Down when Miller becomes a de-facto lineman, and in 2012, he was great at it.


176.) Nick Hardwick (C-SD)

Nick Hardwick has been playing for a long time. So long, he can remember when San Diego was routinely being mentioned as 'the most talented team in the NFL' because, and this is conjecture, they had a proclivity for beating teams quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. Well, Nick Hardwick wasn't really mentioned as one of those people making the Chargers so damn talented, but he's still here and he's still playing really well. It's hard to imagine, but his ability to stuff tackles is the only thing stopping Philip Rivers from being maimed by now.


175.) Chris Snee (G-NYG)

Once upon a time, the Giants fielded the NFL's best o-line. Those were different times, when Aaron Rodgers was an unknown and Tiki Barber was the Barber twin far more likely to make the Hall of Fame. Chris Snee is the only remnant from those halcyon times left, and he continues to play well. He was penalized just four times, and allowed just two sacks, against some really good interior lineman. Chris Snee won't be remembered as fondly as Shaun O'Hara, but Tom Coughlin's son-in-law is damn good, historically too.


174.) Terrance Knighton (DT-DEN)

The Broncos were really good against the run, getting some unexpected performances out of the likes of Kevin Vickerson and the ancient Justin Bannan. Well, Bannan retired, and the Broncos replaced him with one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL. He's lost trying to get to the QB, but he ranked #5 in stop rate and #16 in ypr allowed. All he needs is to do that again, and the Broncos would have upgraded what was already a very good run defense.


173.) Jurrell Casey (DT-TEN)

The Titans are still built in a quasi-Jeff Fisher way, and Casey's disruptive play at Tackle is something Fisher would have done wonders with. Munchak is doing whatever is necessary, though. Casey's numbers aren't fantastic on FO, but his age and his activity (making a play on 9% of the snaps he was on the field for - really high for a defensive tackle) make him more valuable than the numbers would say.



172.) Cam Newton (QB-CAR)

Cam Newton didn't have a sophomore slump. He just didn't have a sophomore bump. Too many times we expect players to get better every year when they are young, and these expectations are even higher on QBs. Almost no great QB got appreciably better in his second season outside of Peyton Manning. Cam Newton's slightly better play is a good sign. He held his value even though offensive levels dropped leaguewide. He was never going to match those inflated rookie numbers, but protecting the ball even better without any sort of run game is still an improvement.


171.) Jabaal Sheard (DE-CLE)

The Mike Holmgren era in Cleveland came and went before you could really analyze and judge what happened, and considering Mike Lombardi has never been a good GM, his almost sure impending failure will probably let Holmgren off the hook for whatever bad decisions he made. All this is to say that Jabaal Sheard was a darn good decision. Sheard was a Top-25 lineman against the run in FO's stats, while also getting 7 sacks and 16 more hurries. He even tipped four balls, which is good in a world where you remember that JJ Watt is not a human being.


170.) Cortland Finnegan (CB-STL)

Cortland Finnegan isn't where he was back in his late-Titans prime (him and everyone on the 2008 Titans defense were fantastic), but considering how often he gets stuck on an island against the opponents #1, his numbers aren't all that bad. Fisher gave most of his safety support to Jenkins and Bradley Fletcher. Finnegan had to play against the top receivers and did a decent job at it. Plus, the 14 passed defended make up for some of the average rate stats.


169.) Randall Cobb (WR-GB)

Randall Cobb was awesome by DVOA and DYAR standards. He also had a great catch rate. So why is he so low? Well, Brandon Stokley was all of these things as well, and isn't on the Top-200. Randall Cobb is used really well by Mike McCarthy, but slot receivers like Cobbster have put up great advanced stats for years. It's easier to do what Randall Cobb does when you have Greg Jennings (up till now), Jordy Nelson and James Jones, with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. Still, a 77% catch rate on 104 targets is insane.


168.) Jason Peters (T-PHI)

Jason Peters, when healthy, is a Top-5 Left Tackle. Too bad for him he doesn't always stay healthy. Peters has had the unfair task of being Mike Vick's tackle, but luckily for him, he missed out on the more unfair task of protecting the blind side of Nick Foles. Well, he gets that challenge this year. Yes, Peters is one of a few guys on this list who missed serious time in 2012 (in Peters case, the whole season), but again, past performance matters here as well. He's been good in the past and given his age, he should be good again. When he's on the field, at least.


167.) Corey Liuget (DT-SD)

Corey Liuget quietly had a really good second season in the NFL. He was solid against the run, but his real value laid in his pass rush. 7 sacks and 8 tipped balls (again, really good when we don't consider what a Kaiju JJ Watt was), and a ridiculous activity rate for a 3-4 DE in a Watt-less world. The Chargers are building a nice little front-seven on defense, and Liuget is the key.


166.) Brandon Moore (G-NYJ)

Yes, he's currently a free agen


165.) Connor Barwin (OLB-PHI)

Connor Barwin, when you look at the numbers, took a step backwards in 2012 after a nice breakout in 2011. Of course, this was true of every member of the Texans defense not named JJ Watt. However, with Barwin it helps to look deeper. Football Outsiders' noted him in the Top-10 in the league with 14 QB hits, and his 16.5 hurries aren't too shabby either. He was getting pressure, just not finishing the job. That stuff fluctuates, especially with young players as then it is more bad luck and less 'losing a step'.


164.) Dwayne Allen (TE-IND)

When Dwayne Allen was selected in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, most Colts fans I knew hated the pick. It wasn't so much the choice of Allen, but the choice of another TE after taking Luck's binky Coby Fleener a round earlier. Well, Fleener had an injury plagued rookie season, and Dwayne Allen happened to turn in a damn good rookie campaign at TE. His DVOA was really nice for a high usage TE, as was hist 68% catch rate (which is about 10% higher than Luck's completion to rate to anyone not named Dwayne Allen). Best was his two drops. Dwayne Allen had a really good rookie season. Now it comes to see whether Fleener can reach his level, not vice versa.


163.) Cary Williams (CB-CLE)

Cary Williams had a really nice 2011 season, but struggled for much of 2012 after being forced into the CB1 role with Lardarius Webb's ACL injury. Still, he performed admirably out-of-position and was really nice in their playoff run. His 17 passes defended rank 3rd in the NFL for secondary players, and his tacklins will be a great relief to those Eagles fans that struggled through Asante & Asomugha non-contact combination.


162.) Tony Romo (QB-DAL)

Tony Romo had some nice fantasy numbers, and had more than a few great 4th quarter moments, and kept that team alive in the playoff race. Still, it is hard to get past the lowest y/a of his career along with his highest interception total in years (a league-high 19). Tony Romo is a very good QB. There aren't many established QBs that are ahead of him (there are three rookies that I did rank ahead of him), and the Cowboys probably couldn't get any better QB any time soon, but with his age creeping up there, it might be time to start savoring the memories and not expecting a Super Bowl out of him.


161.) Captain Munnerlyn (CB-CAR)

Captain Munnerlyn is Exhibit A of the variable state of slot-corners in the NFL. Football Outsiders had him ranked #11, #3, #79 and #2 in ypa allowed over the past four years. With the strange retirement of Chris Gamble, Munnerlyn might have to take his slot-corner abilities outside, which should be something to watch in 2013. Not many corners can make that transition, and the Panthers need him to be one of the few who do, considering their other options are people no one has heard of.


160.) Stephen Tulloch (MLB-DET)

Tulloch is the rare pure Cover-2 MLB. He is totally middling against the run, but is great against the pass (Top-20 in both of FO's pass defense stats). He always stays on the field, and is rarely the one giving up big plays. Guys that can cover the field are incredibly important in a division that contains the likes of Kyle Rudolph, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley, and despite not being overly fast, Tulloch does a great job on all of them.


159.) Brandon Browner (CB-SEA)

Brandon Browner makes up the less touted half of the Sehawks corner duo, but in a few ways he had a better season in 2012 Sherman. First, he gave up fewer yards per pass and had a higher success rate than Sherman. He also had a higher target rate, making those stats more impressive. However, he was awful against the run; not a huge priority for a corner, but still. Also, he wasn't as impactful in terms of defending passes and interceptions. Sure, those are variable from year-to-year, but having 13 fewer passes defended is substantial.


158.) Marques Colston (WR-NO)

Colston had another stellar season as the WR1 in the Saints offense, with a nice 64% catch rate, and 10 TDs (the second highest total of his career). His advanced stats are below that of his more slot-ish receiving mate in Lance Moore, but Colston's incredible consistency going up against opposing top corners lands him on this list. It's amazing that he's already turning 30, but when you remember that he's been in New Orleans as long as Drew Brees has, it is less so.


157.) Andre Smith (T-CIN)

Andre Smith will probably forever be known for his man-boobs flopping during his private workout before the 2009 draft. That will be the immediate picture in the head of any NFL fan of Andre Smith, no matter how consistently good he is. No one will mistake Andre Smith for Joe Thomas, or even Sebastian Vollmer (considering Smith plays RT), but he's one of the NFL's best at RT. He rarely gives up sacks and is a monster in the run game. That was his forte coming out of Alabama, and unlike so many of Nick Saban's Alabama players, his NFL play has come close to matching his Crimson Tide play.


156.) Glover Quin (S-DET)

Glover Quin was the only member of the Houston Texans secondary, apart from Kareem Jackson who got a lot better, to hold his value in 2012 from 2011. Quin was a Top-30 safety in both run defense categories on Football Outsiders, and a Top-20 performer against the pass. Not many reach both levels. Detroit is really depending on Quin being that good once again for them, as they've needed a solid secondary player for about 15 years now. Quin has that ability.


155.) Joe Haden (CB-CLE)

Haden's numbers weren't great, and his four game PED suspension is an issue, but the promise he showed as a rookie is still there. Corners take time to develop, and he has to go against some good receivers in that division. Ray Horton's defense asks a lot of corners, but I do think Haden is up for the task.


154.) Kareem Jackson (CB-HOU)

Kareem Jackson was all sorts of terrible in 2011. There's a reason why corners shouldn't be judged on their rookie season, even if that rookie season is as bad as Jackson's was. Kareem Jackson wasn't run-of-the-mill bad, but 'you get an average of 11.5 yards when you throw at him' bad. Fast forward 16-games and you only get 7.1 yards, which might sound bad but it is good for 29th in the NFL. Couple that with the league's 12th best success rate and 19 passes defended and you get one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season.


153.) Heath Miller (TE-PIT)

Heath Miller, who's been in the league since 2005, just had his best receiving season. He had a career high in yards and TDs. It's always seemed odd to me that Heath Miller didn't have more TDs than he had (two each in 2010 and 2011), but he was Ben's main red zone target in 2012. His blocking has notably gotten worse over time, but he's as good a receiving target at 30 as he was at 25, which is phenomenal.


152.) Greg Hardy (DE-CAR)

Greg Hardy probably isn't as famous or well-perceived as Charles Johnson, but he had a great 2012 season with 11 sacks, 19 hurries and above average play against the run. Hardy is just 25, and pass rushers age well, so he could be on the cusp of a long and productive career in Carolina. The Pannthers pass rush is quietly really good, and with Hardy playing this way and the additions in the offseason, it should stay that way.


151.) Eric Berry (S-KC)

Eric Berry is arguably the best safety against the run by Football Outsiders numbers, ranking #2 in stop percentage and #1 in yards allowed for all secondary players. However, the more important job of a safety is to be good against the pass, and while Berry isn't particularly bad against the pass, I'm sure the Chiefs would rather have his skill set reversed. Still, Berry is young and supposedly fully healthy. Great things should still await one of the more talented safeties in the NFL.

Thoughts on Arrested Development Season 4

It took seven years for there to finally be a 4th season of Arrested Development. It took about two weeks for me to finish the 15 episodes of that 4th season. It took me four more weeks to finally gather myself and write this. Arrested Development, during its FOX run, was one of the best TV comedies ever (I had it ranked #1 out of the comedies I have seen). It combined every type of modern comedy, did all aspects well and had an incredible cast that perfectly meshed ridiculous antics and surreal dialogue. The first three seasons of Arrested Development were basically perfect.

The fourth season is not. Luckily, I think most people held seasons 1-3 in such high regard and could see how tough it would be to recapture that magic seven years later that the fact that Season 4 is quite decidedly the worst 'season' the show ever did wasn't even all that disappointing. Season 4 doesn't change my opinion of Seasons 1-3. Honestly, Season 4 was like a new show. Other than the characters and the tone, there isn't much similar between the two. Some of this was by design, some of it was by necessity. It combined into something I wish could have been better, but was still more or less acceptable

Creator Mitch Hurwitz didn't have access to each of the characters at the same time, so there wasn't a single episode where all nine main characters (10 with Oscar) appeared. That is a problem. One of the greatest strengths of Arrested Development was its incredible deep cast. They had nine main actors playing 9/10 characters, each of which would more or less appear in each episode, each of which had good chemistry with each other, each with a distinctive voice and style. They took ensemble comedy to a whole new level. That was partially lost. The actors appeared basically in relation to how much success they've had outside the show, so we got to spend a ton of time with George, Lucille, Oscar, Lindsay and Tobias, and way too few time with George Michael, Maebe and Buster. For whatever reason, Jason Bateman is the exception, but he was turned into more of a 'main character' in this season than in the shows original run.

In the end, the way the characters were meshed really wasn't truly in Mitch Hurwitz's control. It would have been great if the nine main actors dropped whatever they were doing and did a season in the same way they did the first three. But that isn't how the industry works. Instead, Hurwitz was left with half rosters for most of the episodes, which made the show never really feel like classic Arrested Development. Still, the competing work schedules wasn't all of what was wrong with the first season, nor did it stop there from being some excellent moments. That variation was purely about plot and the show itself.

I'll start with my plot related problems first. The main issue for me was the plot was confusing in a boring way. In fairness, the overarching plot of the original show (the SEC arrests George Sr. and freezes the Bluth family because George has committed fraud and possibly treason) was always complicated. It helped that the plot wasn't what drove Arrested Development, the week to week banter and interaction did. Well, when the amount and combinations of interactions are limited, then plot becomes more important, and with that more glaring.

The long winding, connected plot was a slow build that worked in a storytelling sense (all the main storylines colliding towards the party on Cinco), but with the lengthy episodes (I'll get to this in a bit) and the relative isolation of the characters, it was damn hard to keep track. It was hard to really see how George's long con with the stimulus money (the 'stimmy' was seemingly the only connecting link between all the plots) connected to Lindsay's infatution with Herbert Love. Michael's role as an executive either pleading for or withholding movie rights was funny but strange. The show just never found its ground plot wise, and it wasn't funny enough to make the plot issues disappear, which is what the original run used to do.

The biggest issue, though, was the length of the episodes. One of my favorite part of owning the Arrested Development DVDs were the lengthy, hilarious deleted and extended scenes of each one. Mitch Hurwitz often commented on how much extra stuff they had for each of the 21-minute FOX episodes. Well, here Hurwitz got no time restraint (although if he tried a 40+ minute one Netflix may have said no), leading to a ton of episodes in the 30-34 minute range and one 37-minute monster. If they were of the caliber of the old AD, I would have loved the longer times, but they weren't.

It made it worse that some of the season's worst episodes were the lengthiest. They just dragged at times. And with the idea of each episodes starring one character, it made the character seem way too large. Tobias just isn't a main character the way Michael is, and having him be the central figure of a longer episode just hurt.

There are a few characters I wasn't a fan of either. The largest was Marky Bark, Lindsay's love interest, which was never as funny as the far more brief time I spent with Barky back in Season 1. Also Tobias' love interest, whatever that dull woman's name was, was about as bad. In fact, almost everything with those two characters worked far less than the original run. I wish Hurwitz just kept them perpetually unhappy in that marraige instead of finding love in hopeless places.

I've wrote a lot about what I didn't really like in the show, but that doesn't mean I'm upset or regretful it was made. I still think it was better than most comedies on TV, and still had enough of the old Arrested Development tone that it worked. The characters were more isolated, and more focused in their individual episodes, but they were still the same. The show didn't really change any character from the original run. They all had their same foibles, same weaknesses and same comedic strengths.

Certain episodes were excellent, like the episode where Michael first meets Ron Howard, or most of the shows final seven or so episodes. It came on strong when the plotlines started to get more intertwined. I liked the kids even more than before, especially Maebe's who's smaller role fit really well. I liked how many guesstars they could get, and while they didn't bring back many of my favorites (not bringing back Maggie Lizer was painful), the new ones like Herbert Love, Rebel Ally (great joke in her name) and Ron Howard himself worked well.

In the end, it simply isn't interesting to write a litany of all the things I found positive in the new season of Arrested Development. I grade it a solid B, which while lower than any of the previous seasons (which went 'A', 'A', 'A-' for me), is still damn good. It was just so much fun to see those characters interacting again. Arrested Development, much like one of my favorite recent sitcoms, the now-cancelled Happy Endings, used its actors better than anyone else has ever used those same actors. All the actors seemed born for the roles on Arrested, and they still were.

It is hard to say what my judgement of Arrested Development on totality will be from now on. If I consider Arrested Development to be a four-season show when comparing it on my list of favorite comedy programs of all time, it definitely drops below Seinfeld, and maybe even Chappelle Show, but how can I really consider something that came out seven years after the most recent episode to be the same show. If Everybody Loves Raymond does another season, or The Wire, say, will anyone place those with the rest of those show's run when comparing it longterm. Maybe? But I don't. Arrested Development Season 4 to me was its own entity. It had no plot connection to the previous seasons. You don't need to have watched Seasons 1-3 to really understand what the show in Season 4 is all about. It is its standalone entity, and that is how I will remember it. A fine standalone entity that couldn't capture the same magic of its namesake, but good enough to want another season. If it does happen (and word is it could) I just hope they have at least one episode where every character appears.