We're back for another go-around. The Bills opened their training camp yesterday. The Hall of Fame Game is in 13 days (!), which is scary. It's almost back. The beast is coming soon for one more installment of the Greatest TV Series of all time.
There will be some changes in the NFL this year. First, we'll have outdoor games in Minnesota and a new stadium for the 49ers, who will play outside Candlestick Park for the first time since before the franchise was any good at all. Then the Buccaneers will be wearing a garish new uniform. Things are a changing.
So, to introduce the season, and where we are now, I'm going to do a brief little Power Rankings before people start getting injured day-in and day-out (quick tip of a cap to Sean Lee and Kiko Alonso, among other players already lost for the year), and power training camp battles are decided. Sure, it is hard to do this blind without knowing, for instance, who will play QB for the Jets. But that's what is fun about this. Let's go. 2014 is almost here.
The 'I Can't See a Way They Make the Playoffs' Sexto
32.) Cleveland Browns (4-12)
This isn't dependent on either Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel starting, it is more about losing Josh Gordon and having a team that, despite a little renaissance in mid-season last year built off of beating bad teams, the Browns are not that good. Their offense will struggle to score 20 points this season with Josh Gordon and with teams getting more tape on Hoyer or rookie mistakes from Manziel. The defense is still good, but it isn't great, despite people's wonked perceptions. There is really no team that looks terrible on paper, but the Browns look the worst of the bunch to me.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
The Jaguars could be below Cleveland, but I think they're planning to go with Chad Henne, and while they too are missing their top WR, with Justin Blackmon unlikely to return in 2014, they have more outside Blackmon than the Browns did around Gordon, like Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders, and maybe some good rookie production from Marqise Lee. The defense is also underrated. Not that they'll be good, but they have decent players and a good defensive coach in Gus Bradley.
30.) Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)
Maybe Teddy Bridgewater fulfills all the expectations that people who pronounced him as 'the most NFL-ready QB in the draft'. Maybe Peterson holds off decline for another year and Cordarrelle Patterson continues his Devin Hester impression. Maybe the 2nd year players on defense and the other young guys take another step forward. Maybe, maybe, maybe. The Vikings are building something, and it helps when you get 5 first round picks over two years. Then again, they're in a tough division that should play better with Cutler and Rodgers healthy all year (hopefully) and I still don't trust rookies in today's NFL.
29.) Miami Dolphins (8-8)
I used to be a fan of where the Dolphins were going, but I've really lost a lot of hope over the past year and a half. Ryan Tannehill didn't seem to progress too much in 2013 despite better receivers to throw to and another year in that system. The o-line will probably be better in 2014, because it is hard for it to be worse, but Ryan Tannehill showed no real pocket presence to make that o-line look better than it really is, something all good QBs apart from Aaron Rodgers, do. The defense has some good players but they never seem to be better than the sum of their parts either, but that side of the ball has lost talent recently as well. Just not a good roster against a tough schedule (AFC West, NFC North)
28.) Oakland Raiders (4-12)
Most have them at #32 or #31. This isn't completely favoritism, but I think they can be decent in that 4-6 win range way. Matt Schaub might have been broken, but he might return to average-ness with some new players. They have really no one on offense apart from a couple decent lineman and McFadden, but that defense could be interesting. They decided to sign the 2008 Pro Bowl cast on defense (Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Sims, Kevin Burnett, Charles Woodson), but if half of those guys play near what they used to, and Khalil Mack is 75% of Von Miller as a rookie, that defense could be decent.
27.) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
The AFC East is a mess. For all the people that will denigrate Manning for winning bad divisions, I give you the AFC East throughout the totality of Tom Brady's career. The Bills were a trendy playoff pick two years ago, and they quietly had some good elements last year, like a top-5 defense in the NFL and a d-line that did what it was supposed to do the year before, but I'm less confident this year. First, losing Kiko Alonso is big. So too is losing the architect of that defense in Mike Pettine. I like Doug Marrone as a coach, but continuing to stockpile slender, short receivers isn't really a working strategy in 2014.
The 'Bottom of the Barrel of NFL Average-ness' Quinto
26.) Washington Redskins (3-13)
There is obvious more talent there than a normal 3-13 team, especially with DeSean Jackson added to Pierre Garcon. Robert Griffin should play better one year removed from ACL Surgery, and I think Jay Gruden will protect him more than Mike Shanahan's offense did (or at least it should, Griffin can be special just throwing the ball). The defense is still below-average at best, but the offense could win 5-6 games on its own.
25.) Houston Texans (2-14)
The Texans are a trendy pick, and hey, three of the past five teams to pick #1 overall made the playoffs the following year (and a 4th team, the 2010 Seahawks, lost on a tiebreaker), including the past two years with 2-14 teams in Indianapolis adn Kansas City making a 9-game jump. Because of how awesome JJ Watt is, and how awesome Clowney could be, and how amazing Bill O'Brien could be (sarcasm on that last one). Of course, Andre Johnson wants out, but this raking is assuming he stays. My quibble is Andrew Luck and Alex Smith are better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. The AFC South isn't great, but it isn't terrible (and neither is the NFC East or AFC North who they are matched up against). It could happen, but I'm not a full believer.
24.) Tennessee Titans (7-9)
I'm actually more of a believer for Tennessee, who has the most 8-8 roster I have ever seen. They have slightly-above average talent at like every position. They are building a really nice o-line, but o-line's haven't really been a feature of Whisenhunt's good teams. Good QB play and better WR play have. I am a slight believer in Locker, and I like Wright, Hunter, Washington as a Top-3. There are nice players all over that defense, good enough to make them perfectly average. Perfectly average is what I describe the Titans. Honestly, that could describe basically every Titans team outside of 2002 and 2008.
23.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
The Chiefs won 9 more games in 2013 than 2012, and other than the Colts last season, pretty much every other team that has had that type of jump fell back the following season. Alex Smith is still a trusted QB, but that team finished 6-5 last season. They also lost some good contributors over the offseason, including Jon Asomoah and both Brandon's. They never were 11-5 in talent last season, so it isn't that hard to see a drop-off. I am probably underrating them, but if there is any team that is going to fall back this season, it is them.
22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
Oh how I want Lovie Smith's Tampa team to jump up and make a playoff push. I guess it is possible. They had a nice offseason, and I really like the pickups of Michael Johnson and especially Alterraun Verner. Lovie Smith will make that defense work. He has a Tommie Harris type in Gerald McCoy. Still, offense matters. While Josh McCown might do a great impression of himself from last year throwing lobs to V-Jax and Mike Evans, the chances of McCown being as good again are low. I have high hopes for this team in 2-3 years, but even in Chicago, the Bears took two years to really gel.
The "Expectations Are High and a Bounceback is Possible" Quinto
21.) Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
It was a punchline to overcredit the success of the Ravens to Ray Lewis back in the day, but alas, the Ravens win the Super Bowl bouyed by 'Win One for Ray' and then Ray retires and they miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco together won 11, 9, 12, 12 and 10 games and won a playoff game each year. Now, they are fighting in mediocrity. Joe Flacco suffered behind a bad o-lien and targets and had his worst season since his rookie year. The defense was still Top-10, but the big plays weren't there. Change is coming in terms of personnel, but how long a leash does Harbaugh, who's team has won fewer games two successive years, get?
20.) Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
This might be too high, but like Misters Harbaugh and Flacco, Misters Smith and Ryan followed up a start winning 11, 9, 13, 10 and 13 games by going 4-12. They had a ridiculous amount of injuries, headlined by Julio Jones, and they had no depth. They do have a few things going for them. First is that Matt Ryan is still very good and Julio Jones is back. The defensive transition to a 3-4 could work, and they went out and got pieces to help that transition, like signing Paul Soliai and Tyson Jackson. Jon Asomoah should help on the o-line, as should Jake Matthews. They have a chance to bounce back and will certainly go better than 4-12. If there is any team to have a 5-6 win jump, it is Atlanta.
19.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
What team can go 8-8 three straight years and be simultaneously overrated and underrated at the same time. They're overrated because they don't deserve nearly the media attention they get, but they're also underrated because Tony Romo is underrated as he's not a serial choker who 'can't win teh big one' and their o-line is among the best in the NFL. Then again, teh defense is bad and on paper got even worse over the offseason. That side could ruin the team and I have to imagine even if they go 8-8 for a 4th straight season, Jason Garrett is gone.
18.) New York Jets (8-8)
I'm positive on the Jets. So are Jets fans. The team somehow went 8-8 last season and although there are serious indications that the Jets could regress, such as their bad point differential, good record in close games, and lack of a real QB, there are indicators that could swing the other way. First, those d-lineman could get even better, and the front-7 is among the most talented in teh NFL. Then, adding Eric Decker, no matter how much he was a product of Peyton, can't hurt, and Michael Vick, when healthy, is still a steady enough QB. They have a shot at a wild-card in a weak division.
The "Soft, Fleshy Underbelly of the NFC" Quatro
17.) Detroit Lions (7-9)
The Lions still have all the talent in the world, and maybe if they can get out of their own way, and maybe if Jim Caldwell establishes some discipline in a locker room that was sorely lacking in taht area under Schwartz, they can make a nice run at this thing. That said, last season was a golden missed opportunity. It is unlikely Rodgers misses 7 games again. Stafford to his bevy of weapons will likely have another ~5,000 yards, but scoring TDs is still a problem. So is the back-seven. Also, while Caldwell remained respected throughout his run in Indianapolis, consistency and defensive stability was never a trademark.
16.) St. Louis Rams (7-9)
The only thing holding the Rams back from challenging for 10 wins is the division, and if they get real progress from Bradford and his cast of characters with a more stable o-line, they could despite the division. The Rams have one thing going for them in that they have the best front-4 in the NFL, one that could dominate games and win 6-7 games on their own. They can outright control that line of scrimmage week in and week out. They have flash in the back-7 and if some of their youth gets even better, they could have something special.
They're the Champs, and the Champs stay the Champs until the lose.
There will be some changes in the NFL this year. First, we'll have outdoor games in Minnesota and a new stadium for the 49ers, who will play outside Candlestick Park for the first time since before the franchise was any good at all. Then the Buccaneers will be wearing a garish new uniform. Things are a changing.
So, to introduce the season, and where we are now, I'm going to do a brief little Power Rankings before people start getting injured day-in and day-out (quick tip of a cap to Sean Lee and Kiko Alonso, among other players already lost for the year), and power training camp battles are decided. Sure, it is hard to do this blind without knowing, for instance, who will play QB for the Jets. But that's what is fun about this. Let's go. 2014 is almost here.
The 'I Can't See a Way They Make the Playoffs' Sexto
32.) Cleveland Browns (4-12)
This isn't dependent on either Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel starting, it is more about losing Josh Gordon and having a team that, despite a little renaissance in mid-season last year built off of beating bad teams, the Browns are not that good. Their offense will struggle to score 20 points this season with Josh Gordon and with teams getting more tape on Hoyer or rookie mistakes from Manziel. The defense is still good, but it isn't great, despite people's wonked perceptions. There is really no team that looks terrible on paper, but the Browns look the worst of the bunch to me.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
The Jaguars could be below Cleveland, but I think they're planning to go with Chad Henne, and while they too are missing their top WR, with Justin Blackmon unlikely to return in 2014, they have more outside Blackmon than the Browns did around Gordon, like Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders, and maybe some good rookie production from Marqise Lee. The defense is also underrated. Not that they'll be good, but they have decent players and a good defensive coach in Gus Bradley.
30.) Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)
Maybe Teddy Bridgewater fulfills all the expectations that people who pronounced him as 'the most NFL-ready QB in the draft'. Maybe Peterson holds off decline for another year and Cordarrelle Patterson continues his Devin Hester impression. Maybe the 2nd year players on defense and the other young guys take another step forward. Maybe, maybe, maybe. The Vikings are building something, and it helps when you get 5 first round picks over two years. Then again, they're in a tough division that should play better with Cutler and Rodgers healthy all year (hopefully) and I still don't trust rookies in today's NFL.
29.) Miami Dolphins (8-8)
I used to be a fan of where the Dolphins were going, but I've really lost a lot of hope over the past year and a half. Ryan Tannehill didn't seem to progress too much in 2013 despite better receivers to throw to and another year in that system. The o-line will probably be better in 2014, because it is hard for it to be worse, but Ryan Tannehill showed no real pocket presence to make that o-line look better than it really is, something all good QBs apart from Aaron Rodgers, do. The defense has some good players but they never seem to be better than the sum of their parts either, but that side of the ball has lost talent recently as well. Just not a good roster against a tough schedule (AFC West, NFC North)
28.) Oakland Raiders (4-12)
Most have them at #32 or #31. This isn't completely favoritism, but I think they can be decent in that 4-6 win range way. Matt Schaub might have been broken, but he might return to average-ness with some new players. They have really no one on offense apart from a couple decent lineman and McFadden, but that defense could be interesting. They decided to sign the 2008 Pro Bowl cast on defense (Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Sims, Kevin Burnett, Charles Woodson), but if half of those guys play near what they used to, and Khalil Mack is 75% of Von Miller as a rookie, that defense could be decent.
27.) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
The AFC East is a mess. For all the people that will denigrate Manning for winning bad divisions, I give you the AFC East throughout the totality of Tom Brady's career. The Bills were a trendy playoff pick two years ago, and they quietly had some good elements last year, like a top-5 defense in the NFL and a d-line that did what it was supposed to do the year before, but I'm less confident this year. First, losing Kiko Alonso is big. So too is losing the architect of that defense in Mike Pettine. I like Doug Marrone as a coach, but continuing to stockpile slender, short receivers isn't really a working strategy in 2014.
The 'Bottom of the Barrel of NFL Average-ness' Quinto
26.) Washington Redskins (3-13)
There is obvious more talent there than a normal 3-13 team, especially with DeSean Jackson added to Pierre Garcon. Robert Griffin should play better one year removed from ACL Surgery, and I think Jay Gruden will protect him more than Mike Shanahan's offense did (or at least it should, Griffin can be special just throwing the ball). The defense is still below-average at best, but the offense could win 5-6 games on its own.
25.) Houston Texans (2-14)
The Texans are a trendy pick, and hey, three of the past five teams to pick #1 overall made the playoffs the following year (and a 4th team, the 2010 Seahawks, lost on a tiebreaker), including the past two years with 2-14 teams in Indianapolis adn Kansas City making a 9-game jump. Because of how awesome JJ Watt is, and how awesome Clowney could be, and how amazing Bill O'Brien could be (sarcasm on that last one). Of course, Andre Johnson wants out, but this raking is assuming he stays. My quibble is Andrew Luck and Alex Smith are better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. The AFC South isn't great, but it isn't terrible (and neither is the NFC East or AFC North who they are matched up against). It could happen, but I'm not a full believer.
24.) Tennessee Titans (7-9)
I'm actually more of a believer for Tennessee, who has the most 8-8 roster I have ever seen. They have slightly-above average talent at like every position. They are building a really nice o-line, but o-line's haven't really been a feature of Whisenhunt's good teams. Good QB play and better WR play have. I am a slight believer in Locker, and I like Wright, Hunter, Washington as a Top-3. There are nice players all over that defense, good enough to make them perfectly average. Perfectly average is what I describe the Titans. Honestly, that could describe basically every Titans team outside of 2002 and 2008.
23.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
The Chiefs won 9 more games in 2013 than 2012, and other than the Colts last season, pretty much every other team that has had that type of jump fell back the following season. Alex Smith is still a trusted QB, but that team finished 6-5 last season. They also lost some good contributors over the offseason, including Jon Asomoah and both Brandon's. They never were 11-5 in talent last season, so it isn't that hard to see a drop-off. I am probably underrating them, but if there is any team that is going to fall back this season, it is them.
22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
Oh how I want Lovie Smith's Tampa team to jump up and make a playoff push. I guess it is possible. They had a nice offseason, and I really like the pickups of Michael Johnson and especially Alterraun Verner. Lovie Smith will make that defense work. He has a Tommie Harris type in Gerald McCoy. Still, offense matters. While Josh McCown might do a great impression of himself from last year throwing lobs to V-Jax and Mike Evans, the chances of McCown being as good again are low. I have high hopes for this team in 2-3 years, but even in Chicago, the Bears took two years to really gel.
The "Expectations Are High and a Bounceback is Possible" Quinto
21.) Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
It was a punchline to overcredit the success of the Ravens to Ray Lewis back in the day, but alas, the Ravens win the Super Bowl bouyed by 'Win One for Ray' and then Ray retires and they miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007. John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco together won 11, 9, 12, 12 and 10 games and won a playoff game each year. Now, they are fighting in mediocrity. Joe Flacco suffered behind a bad o-lien and targets and had his worst season since his rookie year. The defense was still Top-10, but the big plays weren't there. Change is coming in terms of personnel, but how long a leash does Harbaugh, who's team has won fewer games two successive years, get?
20.) Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
This might be too high, but like Misters Harbaugh and Flacco, Misters Smith and Ryan followed up a start winning 11, 9, 13, 10 and 13 games by going 4-12. They had a ridiculous amount of injuries, headlined by Julio Jones, and they had no depth. They do have a few things going for them. First is that Matt Ryan is still very good and Julio Jones is back. The defensive transition to a 3-4 could work, and they went out and got pieces to help that transition, like signing Paul Soliai and Tyson Jackson. Jon Asomoah should help on the o-line, as should Jake Matthews. They have a chance to bounce back and will certainly go better than 4-12. If there is any team to have a 5-6 win jump, it is Atlanta.
19.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
What team can go 8-8 three straight years and be simultaneously overrated and underrated at the same time. They're overrated because they don't deserve nearly the media attention they get, but they're also underrated because Tony Romo is underrated as he's not a serial choker who 'can't win teh big one' and their o-line is among the best in the NFL. Then again, teh defense is bad and on paper got even worse over the offseason. That side could ruin the team and I have to imagine even if they go 8-8 for a 4th straight season, Jason Garrett is gone.
18.) New York Jets (8-8)
I'm positive on the Jets. So are Jets fans. The team somehow went 8-8 last season and although there are serious indications that the Jets could regress, such as their bad point differential, good record in close games, and lack of a real QB, there are indicators that could swing the other way. First, those d-lineman could get even better, and the front-7 is among the most talented in teh NFL. Then, adding Eric Decker, no matter how much he was a product of Peyton, can't hurt, and Michael Vick, when healthy, is still a steady enough QB. They have a shot at a wild-card in a weak division.
The "Soft, Fleshy Underbelly of the NFC" Quatro
17.) Detroit Lions (7-9)
The Lions still have all the talent in the world, and maybe if they can get out of their own way, and maybe if Jim Caldwell establishes some discipline in a locker room that was sorely lacking in taht area under Schwartz, they can make a nice run at this thing. That said, last season was a golden missed opportunity. It is unlikely Rodgers misses 7 games again. Stafford to his bevy of weapons will likely have another ~5,000 yards, but scoring TDs is still a problem. So is the back-seven. Also, while Caldwell remained respected throughout his run in Indianapolis, consistency and defensive stability was never a trademark.
16.) St. Louis Rams (7-9)
The only thing holding the Rams back from challenging for 10 wins is the division, and if they get real progress from Bradford and his cast of characters with a more stable o-line, they could despite the division. The Rams have one thing going for them in that they have the best front-4 in the NFL, one that could dominate games and win 6-7 games on their own. They can outright control that line of scrimmage week in and week out. They have flash in the back-7 and if some of their youth gets even better, they could have something special.
15.) New York Giants (7-9)
I’m not buying into them again. Well, I should rephrase that. I’m
not buying them to go better than 10-6. I’ve picked them to beat that record
every season I’ve done these picks, including some hilarious one’s like picking
them to go 13-3 in 2009 (they went 8-8), or 12-4 last year (they went 7-9). I’m
definitely not doing that again. What I may do is point out they have arguably
the 2nd best secondary in the NFL, stealing Byron Maxwell, adding
him to Antrel Rolle, Prince Amakumara, Trumain McBride (who had a great season
as a nickel-corner) and then they decided to add Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to
the mix as well. They’ll need all those guys against a Philly.
14.) Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
I think the Cardinals missed their golden chance. The team still
has a bevy of young talent, like Patrick Peterson (who is closer to Richard
Sherman good than people think) or Calais Campbell, and Carson Palmer is OK,
but they also can’t count on Darnell Dockett being good forever, can they?
Their offense is still very one-sided and I’m not sure if they’ve fixed their
O-Line problems.
The "We can go Either Way, but Daniel the Great Thinks we are Going to Get Better" Trio
13.) San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Is it wrong that I really like the Chargers but can’t see them
winning the division at all. Philip Rivers had a masterpiece type season last
year for a team with no running game, no known targets outside of a 3rd-round
rookie and a defense that couldn’t ever get off the field. Rivers gets Malcolm
Floyd back and Keenan Allen should be even better. They have to play better on
defense too, right?
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
I don’t really like the Steelers to challenge seriously in the AFC,
but I think they should have a good shot at a wild-card if not the division.
The main reason is Ben, who quietly had a really good season in 2013. He has
the best o-line he’s ever had, and the best running game he’s had since 2010. I
expect a jump from Markus Wheaton, and that team wasn’t really all that far
away last season, coming one foot barely out of bounds from making the
playoffs.
11.) Chicago Bears (8-8)
The Bears have a really bad defense. It could get a lot better if
Jared Allen still has something left, and LaMarr Houston plays up to his
potential, and they don’t get injured to the comical extent they did
defensively last year. The offense, of course, lost it’s QB for 5 games. McCown
played exceedingly well, but Cutler’s growth in Trestman’s offense makes them
more dangerous than ever before. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are
arguably the most dominant 1-2 WR duo in the NFL. It is hard to imagine them
not scoring 400 points again.
The "Good but Probably Not Great Teams" Trio
10.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
I’m not too positive on the Eagles doing any better than holding
serve at 10-6. For one, Foles went have a 13.5-1 TD-INT again. He’ll likely
have worse production. Losing DeSean Jackson hurts as well. He was their most
dynamic player last year. They needed what Jackson brought last year, even in a
YAC capacity. The defense didn’t really do anything to get better outside
drafting some strange undersized guys. Chip Kelly is an excellent play-caller,
but I can’t see them jumping up too much.
9.) Carolina Panthers
(12-4)
The Panthers aren’t as dead as many people believe, at least to me.
Sure, they lost their WRs, but they replaced them somewhat. Steve Smith wasn’t
exactly in his prime last year, and people are really overvaluing Ted Ginn and
Brandon Lafell. Jason Avant is a good player. Kelvin Benjamin could be a good
target. What made that offense go was Newton, the running game and Mike Tolbert
and Greg Olsen. The defense lost some players in the secondary, but those guys
were mostly built off of Rivera’s scheme (or did Mike Miller suddenly become
good?). The dominant Front-7 is still there. They weren’t a fluke 12-4. The
only thing that really got worse was the o-line.
8.) Indianapolis Colts
(11-5)
The Colts could end up higher mainly because Andrew Luck might be
ready to explode. He was beset with Trent Richardson (who can’t possibly be
worse), a bad o-line that was somewhat fortified, and a decimated corp of
receivers and he showed up with absolutely stunning throws in the playoffs.
Now, he gets Wayne (probably not 100%), Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen back.
That offense could be the 2nd best in the AFC. The defense is still
middling, but middling is generally good enough for 10-12 wins when you have a
good to great offense… you know like the
2002-2004 and 2008-2010 Colts.
The "Great QB, Great Defense, Great Team, but Something's Missing" Trio
7.) Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t miss 7 games, they become a great team
again. Isn’t the NFL fun in 2014? The talent outside Rodgers has probably never
been lower, but that doesn’t really matter as much when your QB is that good.
If they get health in defense, and if Julius Peppers transitions well that isn’t
anything worse than a slightly below average defense. Couple that with the best
non-18 QB in the NFL, and the Packers are still in really good shape.
6.) New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots defense has now passed its offense. Of course, the defense
is also made up of historically injury prone players and while Belichick can do
decent things with stop-gap players, that hasn’t always worked long term. The
offense gets Gronk and Vollmer back, but it is hard to imagine Gronk playing through
all 16 games. Brady also dropped off. I realize he threw to no one, but so did
Philip Rivers and Big Phil was awesome and Brady was just above average. Unless
he rises, they won’t.
5.) New Orleans Saints (11-5)
The Saints are in prime position to take back the division (and
extend the streak of no team since realignment to repeat as NFC South winner)
with their small upgrades (Jairius Byrd – who I think was slightly overrated)
to what was already a pretty darn good roster. Brees shows no signs of really
slowing down (though his bad picks haven’t really left his game), and the
offense should still be good despite the loss of Darren Sproles. It also must
be nice knowing that they should go no worse than 7-1 at home.
The "Perennial Maid of Honor, and her Less Fun Bridesmaid" Duo
4.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Midway through last season, I real was against the 49ers. In a
way, I still am. I think I am buying into them a little too much here. Still
Kaepernick has special skills and that offensive cast is at its most talented.
The defense is still good. They play games well. They rarely make mistakes.
Everything is sunny and rosy.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
The only reason to not like the Bengals is losing both
coordinators from last season. Still the Bengals roster is probably the best in
the NFL #2-53 (up there with Seattle, San Francisco). The ‘others’ at WR should
be better (Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert). The defense lost Michael Johnosn but he
was kind of overrated. They get Geno Atkins and Leon Hall back and that defense
is still loaded with talent at every level. At some point they have to win a
playoff game, right? They can’t make the playoffs 4 straight years and go
one-and-done 4 straight times.
The "If they meet again, which they probably won't in February but will in September, it won't be 43-8" Duo
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
We know about TJ Ward, and DeMarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib (who
replaced DRC) coming over in a nice free agency hall. But they also essentially
added Ryan Clady (played 4 games last season) and Von Miller (played 7 games).
Those two guys are also two of the 20 best players in the NFL entering 2013.
The Broncos lost their 2nd and 3rd best player and still
made the Super Bowl, and now get those guys back. Decker is missing, but
Sanders and Latimer can replace 85% of him easily. They also get Chris Harris
and Kevin Vickerson back from IR. No team “added” more in the offseason than
Denver, and they were plenty good all ready.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
