Brazil vs. Colombia
This is hard, maybe the toughest game to pick. I honestly
like both teams. Colombia has probably been my favorite team to watch in the tournament
so far. They’ve also been arguably the most dominant. Now, they didn’t have to
play the best of teams, put in a Group with the Ivory Coast, Greece and Japan,
but they won those games all rather easily and now have beaten Uruguay easily
as well. Brazil on the other hand is arguably the most criticized team to ever
make a World Cup Quarterfinal. They won their first and third group game by a
combined 7-2. They needed a miraculous performance by Memo Ochoa to not beat Mexico
by two or three. Yes, they skated by Chile, but they also had the better
chances. Also, most World Cup winning sides over the last few years needed some
luck. Heck, Spain itself needed two penalty shootouts and five more 1-0 wins in
their knockout runs in Euro ’08, Euro ’12 and the ’10 World Cup.
Brazil now has worse problems, as Neymar has been gimpy with
a hurt thigh from late in the Chile match. He’s really the best thing Brazil has
going for it, scoring 4 goals and generally being dangerous all the time. The
other Brazilians have started playing better, especially Fred, but they’ll need
to raise their level even more in this game. Oscar was invisible against Chile.
That can’t happen again from their main playmaking passer. Colombia on the
other hand, has no real weakness right now. Their defense has been resolute,
rarely giving Uruguay, who was admittedly missing Luis Suarez, even a sniff of
a chance. On offense, they attack with the best of them. James Rodriguez has
been an absolute sensation, but the team has gotten contributions from all over
their 11. Tio Guitterriez has played well. Abombo and Cuadrado have been great
down the flanks. This is a team playing in top form.
As for my pick, it is really tough. Colombia has been my
favorite team to watch in this tournament. The unbounding joy that they display
underscores how technically gifted they are. That said, Brazil is playing in
Brazil. Colombia has enjoyed a large home-crowd atmosphere at all four matches,
and that is as good as gone here. Chile enjoyed the same in its first three
matches, and when Chile played Brazil there was 90% Brazil fans. Now, Chile
came close to winning, and Colombia can too, but I think the Brazilians relax a
bit in this game, and open up and show the world the talent that they have on
hand. I like the idea of the Brazilian attacking options going up against the
soft back-line of Colombia, and in particular Colombia’s aggressiveness going
forward more than the reverse against players the likes of Luis Gustavo, David
Luiz and Tiago Silva.
Brazil 2 -
Colombia 1
Netherlands vs. Costa
Rica
All eight Group Winners won their Round of 16 game. It was
easy to say that after a round full of drama, including five trips to extra
time, and 7 goals in extra time, that it was all for naught, that all the big
boys won. Now, I’m fine with that, given that I always hope the best teams in
March Madness go through as well. But there is an imposter in the ranks.
Somehow, someway, Costa Rica escaped the toughest group in the World Cup. Somehow,
someway, they drew one of the easier Round of 16 opponents. They suffered a 2nd
yellow to one of their players, played an hour with 10 men, and only gave up
one goal. And here they are. What impressed me the most about Costa Rica was
their calmness and brilliantly struck penalty kicks in the shootout. The Netherlands,
on the other hand, weren’t all that impressive, but when you have attackers
with the individual skilll they display, it may not be necessary to play all
that well.
I haven’t watched too much of Costa Rica, as I only caught
the 2nd half against Uruguay, was spoiled of the score at work
against Italy, and the game against England was pointless. That said, I did
watch Joel Campbell. How he does not play for Arsenal more is beyond me. Guy is
great as a True #9, great holding play, great receiving, and great ball skills.
Bryan Ruiz isn’t to bad either. I’ll be honest I don’t really know the names of
the other players on Costa Rica. Except for Yeltsin Tejada, because, well, that
is an awesome effing name. I know who plays for Netherlands, I just want to
know how. Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder are all close to
or over 30 (though Robben has looked about 37 since he was 25). They should be
past their prime. Their prime should have been the 2010 World Cup. In a way it
was, as they made the Final before losing in the 116th minute to
Spain. Somehow, they’ve been better this time around. Some of it could be the
good play of the younger players. Danny Blind has been very good, as have the
whole backline. But it starts and ends with those three, and hopefully Sneijder’s
strike to tie it up against Mexico rejuvenates him as he was, up till then, having
a disappointing World Cup.
I have no idea how to pick this game. The Dutch are better
on paper. They escaped by a better opponent than Costa Rica escaped by. Of
course, Costa Rica will have most of the fans in the stadium, they’ve already
beaten two football giants, so maybe their miracle run continues. Personally, I
don’t see it. The Dutch are playing to well right now. Robben and Van Persie
look to be too dangerous. Everything is coming up well for them, including
being on the far easier side of the draw (to me, I would have only Netherlands
as being as good as the four teams on the other half). They drew a lot of
criticism for their bullish play during the 2010 World Cup Final, and then
proceeded to lose all three Group games to flame out of Euro 2012, but the Dutch
have done so much to win back our hearts, and it continues.
Netherlands 3 -
Costa Rica 1
Argentina vs. Belgium
Both of these two teams deserved to win in the sense they
put up way more shots and controlled play in their games for most of them. That
all said, it had to be disheartening for fans of underdogs to see the underdog
go a full 90-minutes without conceding to lose in Extra Time. For once, Lionel
Messi was shut down by a sturdy Swiss defense. Now he faces a defense about as
good. Vincent Kompany is one of the best defensive players left in the
tournament. The Belgians have size in the back to make life tough for Lio. Of
course, he’s Leo. Nothing is really too tough for him. Belgium showed up in
full force for the first time in the tournament, and if not for the brilliance
of Tim Howard, that is a 4-0 Belgium win. They played well throughout the
lineup from what I saw. Eden Hazard is slowly coming back to life in this World
Cup, and Romelu Lukaku wasn’t a disaster for once.
It’s too easy to say that it all depends on Messi, but it
really does. Belgium is playing better as a team. Neither were in particularly
hard groups. In fact, they were both in the easiest group. And both struggled
mightily despite winning all three games. You can really call that the story of
this World Cup, struggling mightily but winning close. Argentina needed some of
Messi’s magic to avoid drawing with Iran (in a game where Iran should have had
at least two goals), and Belgium needed late goals to beat both Algeria (which
doesn’t look that bad now) and Russia. They both even continued that theme winning
in stoppage time. The actual matchup, to me, is about how well Di Maria and Higuain
can play against the Belgian wingers and outside backs. Can they win that
matchup, which is winnable, or will they fail to show up again. If so, then
Belgium has the clear edge.
I don’t have too much to say other than this should be an
exciting game. There is no real ‘defensive’ team left in the World Cup. All can
play defense to varying degrees, and many like to sit somewhat back and spring
on the counter (Germany, France, even Brazil to some extent) but none are out
and out defensive, like Greece, or Paraguay who made a surprising QF run from
the 2010 World Cup. That said, these are two teams that hate defense. Belgium
had more shots than any team since like 1970. Argentina’s only real talent lies
at winger and striker. This should be a flying game. I’ll take Argentina
because their home field should be helpful. Also, when you don’t score a lot of
goals despite scores of shots, well that might be a problem.
Argentina 3 -
Belgium 2
Germany vs France
What a way to start the long weekend of football. Despite
their prominence in the World Stage the last 20 or so years, they’ve never met
in a Euro or World Cup in that time. Germany is reaching the peak of their ridiculous
consistent run since finishing 3rd in the 2006 World Cup, but like
all things in German football, that peak doesn’t seem like it is going to end
given the age of their team. Still, this is the last hurrah for Klose, and most
likely Lahm, Schweinsteiger, and while building around a nucleus of Muller,
Goetze, Khedira, Ozil, Nueur, and the injured Marco Reus going forward is still
good, the Lahm/Klose/Schweinsteiger nucleus deserves a major tournament. That
all said, France is about to enter another glory phase. Despite losing Franck
Ribery to injury before the tournament, and despite head coach Didier Deschamps
leaving off Samir Nasri, France has been a revelation.
Personally, I think it is because the Zidane could is no
longer hanging over the French team. The first two tournaments without Zidane,
the Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, were disasters. The team had no leader, especially
shown when then-Captain Patrice Evra orchestrated the coup in South Africa. The
coach was shown to be an idiot. The team was at a loss, as other than Thierry
Henry and Ribery, the rest of the nucleus of the ’06 team was gone as well. It
took a while for them to realize that no one will be the next Zidane, and that
France had to move on. They have, and boy did they. Current France has no
ZIdane, but they have a score of good players. They have arguably the most
talented overall 11 in the tournament. Paul Pogba has been awesome (and did a
nice Zidane-ish impression against Nigeria). Benzema has been solid. Matuidi
has been solid in the midfield, as has Cabaye and Vermaelen and Evra (who seems
to play a lot better when not captain), and Hugo Lloris is a very good keeper.
They’ve flown through this tournament, and while it took them a while to get
going against Nigeria, mostly due to a really awful game by Olivier Giroud,
when they did they were so dominant. The problem for France is the only team
that can match them 1-11 is the team they are playing.
I really see this game playing out one of two ways. Both teams
like to use their athletes and skill to play on the counter, but it is hard for
both to do that. One will have more possession (even if it is just a 60-40
edge, or 55-45). Personally, I think Germany will have more possession, just because
they seem quite comfortable playing with more possession (see their win over
the US), but that could isolate their slower central defenders against a fast
France attack. This is a really close game. All four semifinals are somewhat close
on paper, but this is the closest while also being the tactically closest. I
don’t have a great feel on who will win, but I do think Germany will have more
possession, and France’s defense isn’t really good enough to keep them off the
scoreboard. France will get their chances on the break, and Pogba can dominate
the game again, but I think they’ll fall just short.
Germany 2 -
France 1
