I don't know if it is because I am thousands of miles away while this is all going on, or maybe it is a true fact, but this year's Free Agency Period in the NFL has been crazy. It still doesn't get to the levels of Hot Stove, but with baseball teams becoming smarter at locking up young stars, and NFL teams become starter at not locking up every player in sight, the NFL's Free Agency Frenzy may overtake it soon. There were many, many deals, and I'll give my opinion on each, but I'll start with the big deal that impacts my personal rooting interests and the two trades that went down on the eve of the Free Agency Period.
Part 1: Thoughts on Welker
I don't like Wes Welker. I think he's a great player that is propped up from playing in the perfect system for his skills. I think he's a douchebag, although this is mainly unverified and largely based off his very audible 'You Fucking Suck' when catching the pass on 3rd down to ice Super Bowl 41.5. So, am I going to change my opinion of Wes Welker now that he's going to be catching passes from my favorite player out in Denver? Maybe, but I'll change my opinion of Welker just as much because he left New England - just as I started to like Richard Seymour and Asante Samuel more when they left Foxboro. At the end of the day, I've been through this before with Adam Vinatieri, a Patriot I hated even more for his brilliant game-tying kick in the Tuck Rule Game. He joined a team I actually love, instead of a team where my connection is limited to one player, and I was able to get past that the second I saw his picture perfect kick to beat the Broncos 34-31 in the 2006 season. In a way, I'll welcome Wes Welker's addition into my life because if the Broncos win the Super Bowl with Welker, well then it's a really great 'Eff-You' to New England, as Manning accomplishes with Welker what Brady and Belichick could not. But that's getting ahead of myself. Am I ready to start cheering when Wes Welker catches his first third down conversion? You bet.
The signing (and the replacement signing of Danny Amendola in New England) has two sides to it: the addition of Welker to Denver, and the loss of Welker and addition of Amendola to New England. Unsurprisngly, the latter half of that equation is what is being discussed more. That makes sense, because even I have more to say about that side of it. It shouldn't be a surprise that New England let him go because they've done that with a lot of other players in the past. I mean, they came kind of close to losing Randy Moss to the Packers in the offseason after 2007. But Wes Welker seemed different. Wes Welker hasn't played five games (including the Week 17 game in 2009), and the Patriots average under 20 points, and Brady has 5 TDs and 5 INTs in those games (the Patriots are 2-3). The idea that the Pa triots have been able to replace Wes Welker's absence in teh past is just wrong, even shown earlier this year when there were reports the Patriots were trying to phase Welker out of the offense back in Weeks 1-3. The offense sputtered in those games, most notable in their 20-18 loss to the Cardinals. Now, they are replacing him with Danny Amendola, but he's not Wes Welker. He doesn't stay healthy. He's never been targeted close to the number of times Welker has. Wes Welker's 2006 season with the Dolphins was better than any Amendola season in St. Louis. Danny Amendola could replace Welker adequately. Bill Belichick has been right before in getting rid of guys. But his track record in getting rid of receivers isn't the best. Getting a 1st Round pick for Deion Branch in 2006 was a steal, but losing Branch really hurt that offense that year.
The one advantage of Amendola is that he's younger, but this team shouldn't build for 2016, when Brady will be 39. They should build for 2013 and 2014. Wes Welker might not be good at 36, but there's little to indicate his skills would drop in 2013, at 33. As for the Broncos, I love the move. There is almost no chance Welker puts up the catches that he did in New England, because Manning's offense isn't centered around the slot receiver, and there are two very good (if not great, in Thomas's case) outside receivers. But what Manning has always been able to do is turn slot receivers into absolutely dynamic weapons, and utilize them downfield more than the Patriots offense. I'll tip my hat to Colts fan/Stats Blogger extraordinaire Scott Kacsmar, but Peyton Manning has completed over 80% of his throws in 2010/2012 to his two 'slot' receivers Austin Collie and Brandon Stokley. Now, those two are both taller than Welker, but neither are as fast or is shifty. The best Colts offense was the only year where they had three legitimate targets stay healthy all year, in 2004, when Stokley was healthy all year and caught 10 TDs. The Broncos offense almost certainly won't match the exploits of the 2004 Colts passing offense because it is hard to top the most efficient passing offense ever, but they could easily be the best passing offense in the NFL next season.
Part II: The NFC West Arms Race
Three years ago, the Rams traveled to Seattle in Week 17, with a division title on the line. The only thing sad about this do-or-die game that ended the season, was that the Rams were 7-8, and the Seahawks were 6-9. Three years later, the Seahawks and 49ers might be the best NFC teams on paper, and both swung trades on the eve of Free Agency, acquiring receivers that fill needs and make the teams even better. The NFC West is now so good that even though I like all of the Rams signings (especially when this Jake Long signing finally gets done) they are quite a bit behind the Seahawks and 49ers on paper.
Personally, I don't either of these deals change the teams that much. Percy Harvin going to the Seahawks definitely has more upside, as he can really help that team become more consistent in the shorter passing game, instead of relying on play-action and deep crosses. Harvin also can help in the return game, and even running the ball, and has a lot of experience playing in a read option offense from his time in Florida. But giving up a 1st round pick is a lot to pay to get a guy who has a history of migraine issues (though they've been under control recently), is coming off of an ACL injury, as has had problems with his coach - a coach whom its hard to imagine anyone having issues with. The 49ers got Boldin, but they still need a deep threat. Boldin is an older, but more accomplished, Michael Crabtree. I don't see him really filling a need for the 49ers. The guy they really missed in the Super Bowl - though their offense wasn't totally the problem - was Mario Manningham who tore his ACL midseason. Boldin is a good player, but I think he's being slightly overrated for having three good games in the playoffs, instead of disappointing production in his three regular seasons in Baltimore. That said, the 49ers gave up nothing. I still think the 49ers are a better team, but the Seahawks closed the gap, but paid a far heavier price in doing so.
Part 1: Thoughts on Welker
I don't like Wes Welker. I think he's a great player that is propped up from playing in the perfect system for his skills. I think he's a douchebag, although this is mainly unverified and largely based off his very audible 'You Fucking Suck' when catching the pass on 3rd down to ice Super Bowl 41.5. So, am I going to change my opinion of Wes Welker now that he's going to be catching passes from my favorite player out in Denver? Maybe, but I'll change my opinion of Welker just as much because he left New England - just as I started to like Richard Seymour and Asante Samuel more when they left Foxboro. At the end of the day, I've been through this before with Adam Vinatieri, a Patriot I hated even more for his brilliant game-tying kick in the Tuck Rule Game. He joined a team I actually love, instead of a team where my connection is limited to one player, and I was able to get past that the second I saw his picture perfect kick to beat the Broncos 34-31 in the 2006 season. In a way, I'll welcome Wes Welker's addition into my life because if the Broncos win the Super Bowl with Welker, well then it's a really great 'Eff-You' to New England, as Manning accomplishes with Welker what Brady and Belichick could not. But that's getting ahead of myself. Am I ready to start cheering when Wes Welker catches his first third down conversion? You bet.
The signing (and the replacement signing of Danny Amendola in New England) has two sides to it: the addition of Welker to Denver, and the loss of Welker and addition of Amendola to New England. Unsurprisngly, the latter half of that equation is what is being discussed more. That makes sense, because even I have more to say about that side of it. It shouldn't be a surprise that New England let him go because they've done that with a lot of other players in the past. I mean, they came kind of close to losing Randy Moss to the Packers in the offseason after 2007. But Wes Welker seemed different. Wes Welker hasn't played five games (including the Week 17 game in 2009), and the Patriots average under 20 points, and Brady has 5 TDs and 5 INTs in those games (the Patriots are 2-3). The idea that the Pa triots have been able to replace Wes Welker's absence in teh past is just wrong, even shown earlier this year when there were reports the Patriots were trying to phase Welker out of the offense back in Weeks 1-3. The offense sputtered in those games, most notable in their 20-18 loss to the Cardinals. Now, they are replacing him with Danny Amendola, but he's not Wes Welker. He doesn't stay healthy. He's never been targeted close to the number of times Welker has. Wes Welker's 2006 season with the Dolphins was better than any Amendola season in St. Louis. Danny Amendola could replace Welker adequately. Bill Belichick has been right before in getting rid of guys. But his track record in getting rid of receivers isn't the best. Getting a 1st Round pick for Deion Branch in 2006 was a steal, but losing Branch really hurt that offense that year.
The one advantage of Amendola is that he's younger, but this team shouldn't build for 2016, when Brady will be 39. They should build for 2013 and 2014. Wes Welker might not be good at 36, but there's little to indicate his skills would drop in 2013, at 33. As for the Broncos, I love the move. There is almost no chance Welker puts up the catches that he did in New England, because Manning's offense isn't centered around the slot receiver, and there are two very good (if not great, in Thomas's case) outside receivers. But what Manning has always been able to do is turn slot receivers into absolutely dynamic weapons, and utilize them downfield more than the Patriots offense. I'll tip my hat to Colts fan/Stats Blogger extraordinaire Scott Kacsmar, but Peyton Manning has completed over 80% of his throws in 2010/2012 to his two 'slot' receivers Austin Collie and Brandon Stokley. Now, those two are both taller than Welker, but neither are as fast or is shifty. The best Colts offense was the only year where they had three legitimate targets stay healthy all year, in 2004, when Stokley was healthy all year and caught 10 TDs. The Broncos offense almost certainly won't match the exploits of the 2004 Colts passing offense because it is hard to top the most efficient passing offense ever, but they could easily be the best passing offense in the NFL next season.
Part II: The NFC West Arms Race
Three years ago, the Rams traveled to Seattle in Week 17, with a division title on the line. The only thing sad about this do-or-die game that ended the season, was that the Rams were 7-8, and the Seahawks were 6-9. Three years later, the Seahawks and 49ers might be the best NFC teams on paper, and both swung trades on the eve of Free Agency, acquiring receivers that fill needs and make the teams even better. The NFC West is now so good that even though I like all of the Rams signings (especially when this Jake Long signing finally gets done) they are quite a bit behind the Seahawks and 49ers on paper.
Personally, I don't either of these deals change the teams that much. Percy Harvin going to the Seahawks definitely has more upside, as he can really help that team become more consistent in the shorter passing game, instead of relying on play-action and deep crosses. Harvin also can help in the return game, and even running the ball, and has a lot of experience playing in a read option offense from his time in Florida. But giving up a 1st round pick is a lot to pay to get a guy who has a history of migraine issues (though they've been under control recently), is coming off of an ACL injury, as has had problems with his coach - a coach whom its hard to imagine anyone having issues with. The 49ers got Boldin, but they still need a deep threat. Boldin is an older, but more accomplished, Michael Crabtree. I don't see him really filling a need for the 49ers. The guy they really missed in the Super Bowl - though their offense wasn't totally the problem - was Mario Manningham who tore his ACL midseason. Boldin is a good player, but I think he's being slightly overrated for having three good games in the playoffs, instead of disappointing production in his three regular seasons in Baltimore. That said, the 49ers gave up nothing. I still think the 49ers are a better team, but the Seahawks closed the gap, but paid a far heavier price in doing so.
