These teams on paper are really even right now since the Ravens are at their healthiest and the 49ers are not, so this should be interesting. I did this two years ago, and like that year both these two teams play a 3-4 on defense which makes the comparison easy.
**Just a quick stat about that 3-4 thing, 3-4 defenses haven't really dominated appearances in Super Bowls. Just a quick look:
'02 - 4-3 (TB) vs. 4-3 (OAK)
'03 - 4-3 (CAR) vs. 3-4 (NE)
'04 - 4-3 (PHI) vs. 3-4 (NE)
'05 - 4-3 (SEA) vs. 3-4 (PIT)
'06 - 4-3 (CHI) vs. 4-3 (IND)
'07 - 4-3 (NYG) vs. 3-4 (NE)
'08 - 4-3 (ARZ) vs. 3-4 (PIT)
'09 - 4-3* (NO) vs. 4-3 (IND)
'10 - 3-4 (GB) vs. 3-4 (PIT)
'11 - 4-3 (NYG) vs. 4-3 (NE)
'12 - 3-4 (SF) vs. 3-4 (BAL)
* - the Saints played a lot of 3-3-5 looks, but were on paper a 4-3 team.
Yeah, the 4-3 defense still works a lot, and works well.**
Anyway, let's get to the position breakdowns.
QB: J. Flacco vs. C. Kaepernick
For the first time since 2005, we don't have any 'elite' QBs in the Super Bowl, which is refreshing. For the first time since that same year, the winning QB won't be compared favorably by some idiots to Peyton Manning, so that is good for me. Anyway, Flacco and Kaepernick have both been great this postseason. It's really a choice of conventional drop-back QB vs. New-Wave QB, but I'll go a slightly different direction, and play the experience angle. I just don't trust Kaepernick against such a smart defense. Both QBs are facing the best defenses they have faced in the playoffs so they both have challenges. Overall, it is hard to really separate the two, but that might be more that I feel Kaepernick has been a little overrated.
Edge: Even
RB: R. Rice & B. Pierce vs. F. Gore vs L. James
Production and performance would tell you the 49ers. Frank Gore had a better year than Ray Rice running the ball, and LaMichael James came on strong late in the year to at least match what Bernard Pierce has done late in the year. However, there are two reasons why I lean to Baltimore here. The first is that the 49ers run offense was actually more efficient when Alex Smith was the QB, particularly with Gore (who averaged 5.8 ypc with Smith, and down to 4.1 with Kap), and the other is Ray Rice is a much better receiving option than Frank Gore at this point in their careers. The receiving area is where the 49ers really miss Kendall Hunter.
Edge: Ravens
WR: A. Boldin, T. Smith & J. Jones vs. M. Crabtree, R. Moss & T. Ginn
Both teams receiving corps are built somewhat similarly. They both have the possession receiver with underrated breakout ability at the #1 spot with Boldin and Crabtree. They both have deep threats at the #2 and #3 positions in Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones against a more-used Randy Moss and Ted Ginn. They both don't have a real slot receiver type that many recent Super Bowl participants have had. In the end, I like the Ravens guys better in all of those catagories. I'm surprised the 49ers haven't really missed a beat without Mario Manningham, but they may miss him in this game. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are playing really well right now.
Edge: Ravens
TE: D. Pitta & E. Dickson vs. V. Davis & D. Walker
I'm not sure what happened to Ed Dickson's usage rate as a receiver this year, but it is clear that he is not really a receiving threat and is used almost purely for his blocking ability. Luckily for the Ravens, Dennis Pitta is a really good player and is coming off of a great game against the Patriots. All that said, the 49ers are better here. Delanie Walker hasn't been used much in the playoffs but his usage rate has increased with Kap as the starter. Vernon Davis showed that it was just lack of targets pushing his numbers down, but the Ravens aren't great at covering TEs.
Edge: 49ers
OL: Rejuvanated Ravens vs. Dominant 49ers
The Ravens O-Line is playing really, really well right now with their new combination. Putting Omiyele inside and moving Oher to RT, allowing McKinnie to start again has done wonders for this teams pass protection. Flacco is a pretty sackable QB, but he was rarely touched by the Broncos (really impressive) or the Patriots (not as impressive). Overall, the 49ers guys are just better. Anthony Davis can be had, but the other four are really good. Joe Staley has had a really impressive last two seasons. Iupati and Boone have been great inside and Goodwin has been a key addition the last two seasons. They have the NFL's best run-blocking o-line and one of the best pass-blocking o-lines. This is the 49ers biggest advantage in the game.
Edge: 49ers
DL: H. Ngata, M. Kemoeatu & P. McPhee vs. J. Smith, I. Sopoaga & R. McDonald
Ten weeks ago, this would easily go to 49ers. At that point, Justin Smith was healthy and Haloti Ngata was not with a PCL strain. Since then, Justin Smith is playing with partially torn triceps and Haloti Ngata looks as healthy as he has at any time over the past two seasons. They are two of the three best 3-4 DEs in the NFL (the other guy is a man named Watt), but their health is going in opposite directions. The other two guys are pretty even. I'm not sure why I think this, and the performance over the regular season definitely doesn't show it, but I think Ngata finding the magic elixir is just what the Ravens needed.
Edge: Ravens
OLB: T. Suggs & P. Kruger vs. A. Smith & A. Brooks
This is an interesting one. Aldon Smith has been average for a while now and he isn't good against the run. Suggs is still good against the run, but he is clearly not all the way back from his offseason achilles injury (which is not a surprise), and his pass rush has been lacking all year. Paul Kruger has become a much more effective player this season and has been the Ravens best pass rusher in each of the Ravens playoffs win, while Ahmad Brooks is just another above average player. I have no idea where to go hear with injury and lack of recent performance, so I'll just call it even.
Edge: Even
ILB: R. Lewis & D. Ellerbe vs. P. Willis & N. Bowman
Ray Lewis has a lot of tackles in the playoffs. That's nice, but it is easy to get a lot of tackles when your opponent runs about 85 plays a game. Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman have a lot of tackles as well, but that's a function of them being awesome. Lewis is a liability in coverage, while Willis and Bowman are great in coverage, allowing the 49ers to play four linebackers against 3-wide. Danell Ellerbe has really come on late in the season, but he's nowhere near either of the two 49ers ILBs. This is the biggest advantage either team has at any position.
Edge: 49ers
CB: C. Williams, C. Brown & C. Graham vs. C. Rogers, T. Brown & C. Culliver
Fun fact, a lot of these corners' names start with the letter 'C'. Anyway, the Ravens are interesting because none of the three are really great, and the best one is probably the one that usually covers the slot (Corey Graham) and the 49ers have no natural slot receiver. Cary Williams has played better in the playoffs, admittedly. On the 49ers side, Carlos Rogers has still been good but his play dropped after a stellar 2011 season. Tarrelle Brown is a solid player, if unspectacular, and Chris Culliver is physical, but has no natural player to match up against (something like Graham). There is no real edge in coverage, but the Ravens guys seem to have better ball skills now that we see that Rogers' 6-int season in 2011 was a fluke.
Edge: Ravens
S: E. Reed & B. Pollard vs. D. Goldson & D. Whitner
There's one first-ballot future hall of famer in this group, and while Ed Reed is clearly not the player he once was, there is a reason that the Ravens have allowed just one throw of more than 20 yards to be completed (Brady's pass to Welker on a sweet double-move). Opposing QBs are still scared of throwing Reed's way. Bernard Pollard is effective, but a liability in coverage. The 49ers' duo was great all year long, but Dashon Goldson has been lost in coverage a lot this postseason. Whitner is essentially a Pollard-esque hitter who also can cover. This is real close, and off of the 2012 performance as a whole, it goes to the 49ers.
Edge: 49ers
ST: J. Tucker, S. Koch & J. Jones vs. D. Akers, A. Lee & T. Ginn
The 49ers had one of the league's best special teams in 2011, but that didn't really carry over. The Ravens had one of the best special teams in 2012, and that hasn't really carried over to the playoffs either. The 49ers have the better punter, but the Ravens have the better kicker. There is a huge experience advantage, with Tucker being a rookie, but David Akers has really struggled this season while Tucker has been money. The Ravens had the best return game during the regular season, and since the 49ers don't force a ton of touchbacks, that's another place where their Special Teams edge could be felt.
Edge: Ravens
Final Tally: 5-4-2 in favor of Baltimore
Ravens edge at RB, WR, DL, CB, ST
49ers edge at TE, OL, ILB, S
Even at QB, OLB
Pick coming tomorrow. Some random playoff stuff coming later today.
**Just a quick stat about that 3-4 thing, 3-4 defenses haven't really dominated appearances in Super Bowls. Just a quick look:
'02 - 4-3 (TB) vs. 4-3 (OAK)
'03 - 4-3 (CAR) vs. 3-4 (NE)
'04 - 4-3 (PHI) vs. 3-4 (NE)
'05 - 4-3 (SEA) vs. 3-4 (PIT)
'06 - 4-3 (CHI) vs. 4-3 (IND)
'07 - 4-3 (NYG) vs. 3-4 (NE)
'08 - 4-3 (ARZ) vs. 3-4 (PIT)
'09 - 4-3* (NO) vs. 4-3 (IND)
'10 - 3-4 (GB) vs. 3-4 (PIT)
'11 - 4-3 (NYG) vs. 4-3 (NE)
'12 - 3-4 (SF) vs. 3-4 (BAL)
* - the Saints played a lot of 3-3-5 looks, but were on paper a 4-3 team.
Yeah, the 4-3 defense still works a lot, and works well.**
Anyway, let's get to the position breakdowns.
QB: J. Flacco vs. C. Kaepernick
For the first time since 2005, we don't have any 'elite' QBs in the Super Bowl, which is refreshing. For the first time since that same year, the winning QB won't be compared favorably by some idiots to Peyton Manning, so that is good for me. Anyway, Flacco and Kaepernick have both been great this postseason. It's really a choice of conventional drop-back QB vs. New-Wave QB, but I'll go a slightly different direction, and play the experience angle. I just don't trust Kaepernick against such a smart defense. Both QBs are facing the best defenses they have faced in the playoffs so they both have challenges. Overall, it is hard to really separate the two, but that might be more that I feel Kaepernick has been a little overrated.
Edge: Even
RB: R. Rice & B. Pierce vs. F. Gore vs L. James
Production and performance would tell you the 49ers. Frank Gore had a better year than Ray Rice running the ball, and LaMichael James came on strong late in the year to at least match what Bernard Pierce has done late in the year. However, there are two reasons why I lean to Baltimore here. The first is that the 49ers run offense was actually more efficient when Alex Smith was the QB, particularly with Gore (who averaged 5.8 ypc with Smith, and down to 4.1 with Kap), and the other is Ray Rice is a much better receiving option than Frank Gore at this point in their careers. The receiving area is where the 49ers really miss Kendall Hunter.
Edge: Ravens
WR: A. Boldin, T. Smith & J. Jones vs. M. Crabtree, R. Moss & T. Ginn
Both teams receiving corps are built somewhat similarly. They both have the possession receiver with underrated breakout ability at the #1 spot with Boldin and Crabtree. They both have deep threats at the #2 and #3 positions in Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones against a more-used Randy Moss and Ted Ginn. They both don't have a real slot receiver type that many recent Super Bowl participants have had. In the end, I like the Ravens guys better in all of those catagories. I'm surprised the 49ers haven't really missed a beat without Mario Manningham, but they may miss him in this game. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are playing really well right now.
Edge: Ravens
TE: D. Pitta & E. Dickson vs. V. Davis & D. Walker
I'm not sure what happened to Ed Dickson's usage rate as a receiver this year, but it is clear that he is not really a receiving threat and is used almost purely for his blocking ability. Luckily for the Ravens, Dennis Pitta is a really good player and is coming off of a great game against the Patriots. All that said, the 49ers are better here. Delanie Walker hasn't been used much in the playoffs but his usage rate has increased with Kap as the starter. Vernon Davis showed that it was just lack of targets pushing his numbers down, but the Ravens aren't great at covering TEs.
Edge: 49ers
OL: Rejuvanated Ravens vs. Dominant 49ers
The Ravens O-Line is playing really, really well right now with their new combination. Putting Omiyele inside and moving Oher to RT, allowing McKinnie to start again has done wonders for this teams pass protection. Flacco is a pretty sackable QB, but he was rarely touched by the Broncos (really impressive) or the Patriots (not as impressive). Overall, the 49ers guys are just better. Anthony Davis can be had, but the other four are really good. Joe Staley has had a really impressive last two seasons. Iupati and Boone have been great inside and Goodwin has been a key addition the last two seasons. They have the NFL's best run-blocking o-line and one of the best pass-blocking o-lines. This is the 49ers biggest advantage in the game.
Edge: 49ers
DL: H. Ngata, M. Kemoeatu & P. McPhee vs. J. Smith, I. Sopoaga & R. McDonald
Ten weeks ago, this would easily go to 49ers. At that point, Justin Smith was healthy and Haloti Ngata was not with a PCL strain. Since then, Justin Smith is playing with partially torn triceps and Haloti Ngata looks as healthy as he has at any time over the past two seasons. They are two of the three best 3-4 DEs in the NFL (the other guy is a man named Watt), but their health is going in opposite directions. The other two guys are pretty even. I'm not sure why I think this, and the performance over the regular season definitely doesn't show it, but I think Ngata finding the magic elixir is just what the Ravens needed.
Edge: Ravens
OLB: T. Suggs & P. Kruger vs. A. Smith & A. Brooks
This is an interesting one. Aldon Smith has been average for a while now and he isn't good against the run. Suggs is still good against the run, but he is clearly not all the way back from his offseason achilles injury (which is not a surprise), and his pass rush has been lacking all year. Paul Kruger has become a much more effective player this season and has been the Ravens best pass rusher in each of the Ravens playoffs win, while Ahmad Brooks is just another above average player. I have no idea where to go hear with injury and lack of recent performance, so I'll just call it even.
Edge: Even
ILB: R. Lewis & D. Ellerbe vs. P. Willis & N. Bowman
Ray Lewis has a lot of tackles in the playoffs. That's nice, but it is easy to get a lot of tackles when your opponent runs about 85 plays a game. Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman have a lot of tackles as well, but that's a function of them being awesome. Lewis is a liability in coverage, while Willis and Bowman are great in coverage, allowing the 49ers to play four linebackers against 3-wide. Danell Ellerbe has really come on late in the season, but he's nowhere near either of the two 49ers ILBs. This is the biggest advantage either team has at any position.
Edge: 49ers
CB: C. Williams, C. Brown & C. Graham vs. C. Rogers, T. Brown & C. Culliver
Fun fact, a lot of these corners' names start with the letter 'C'. Anyway, the Ravens are interesting because none of the three are really great, and the best one is probably the one that usually covers the slot (Corey Graham) and the 49ers have no natural slot receiver. Cary Williams has played better in the playoffs, admittedly. On the 49ers side, Carlos Rogers has still been good but his play dropped after a stellar 2011 season. Tarrelle Brown is a solid player, if unspectacular, and Chris Culliver is physical, but has no natural player to match up against (something like Graham). There is no real edge in coverage, but the Ravens guys seem to have better ball skills now that we see that Rogers' 6-int season in 2011 was a fluke.
Edge: Ravens
S: E. Reed & B. Pollard vs. D. Goldson & D. Whitner
There's one first-ballot future hall of famer in this group, and while Ed Reed is clearly not the player he once was, there is a reason that the Ravens have allowed just one throw of more than 20 yards to be completed (Brady's pass to Welker on a sweet double-move). Opposing QBs are still scared of throwing Reed's way. Bernard Pollard is effective, but a liability in coverage. The 49ers' duo was great all year long, but Dashon Goldson has been lost in coverage a lot this postseason. Whitner is essentially a Pollard-esque hitter who also can cover. This is real close, and off of the 2012 performance as a whole, it goes to the 49ers.
Edge: 49ers
ST: J. Tucker, S. Koch & J. Jones vs. D. Akers, A. Lee & T. Ginn
The 49ers had one of the league's best special teams in 2011, but that didn't really carry over. The Ravens had one of the best special teams in 2012, and that hasn't really carried over to the playoffs either. The 49ers have the better punter, but the Ravens have the better kicker. There is a huge experience advantage, with Tucker being a rookie, but David Akers has really struggled this season while Tucker has been money. The Ravens had the best return game during the regular season, and since the 49ers don't force a ton of touchbacks, that's another place where their Special Teams edge could be felt.
Edge: Ravens
Final Tally: 5-4-2 in favor of Baltimore
Ravens edge at RB, WR, DL, CB, ST
49ers edge at TE, OL, ILB, S
Even at QB, OLB
Pick coming tomorrow. Some random playoff stuff coming later today.
