Man, the sports season just does not end (I'll have to be reminded of me saying this statement come July, when it is just baseball and the NFL possibly still locked out). March Madness one weekend, becomes the Masters the next weekend, and then that becomes the NBA playoffs. Finally, we get to see basketball each night that is played with actual, you know, plays and sets. Good basketball. Basketball that doesn't rely on three point shooting and zone defenses and slap-the-floor gritiness. Basically, it is basketball worth watching. Anyway, before I start rambling too much (again), I'll get to my picks.
Eastern Conference
1st Round
(1) Bulls over (8) Pacers 4-1
I think the Bulls are just a whole lot better. The Pacers have nice players, and remind me of a less-than-good Eastern Conference version of the Portland Trail Blazers, with one top player (Danny Granger) but lots of nice pieces. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just really, really good.
(2) Heat over (7) 76ers 4-0
Miami lucked out. They did not want to see the Knicks, and good on them for closing out the two seed and avoiding them. The 76ers just don't have that level that they can reach to possible beat the Heat. This could actually be counter-productive for the Heat who may get a false sense of security after breezing through round 1.
(3) Celtics over (6) Knicks 4-2
I think this will be a close series, but the Knicks just aren't a good matchup for the Celtics. They suffer against big size, which the Celtics have. The Knicks aren't great against the three, which the Celtics are good at. The Knicks struggle against premier point guards, and the Celtics have Rondo. That said, the Celtics have been an absolute mess (relatively) since the Perkins trade (more on that later).
(4) Magic over (5) Hawks 4-2
The Hawks are actually a good matchup for the Magic. Other than Dwight Howard, who no team truly matches up well with, the Hawks have advantages all over the place. They played them very well in the regular season, and as the Warriors in 2007 proved, regular season results shouldn't be discounted. In the end, the Magic are just better, mainly because of the man-beast that is Dwight Howard.
2nd Round
(1) Bulls over (4) Magic 4-2
I think this will be a much tougher series than most do. Dwight has been good against the Bulls, and Noah really can't stop him. For once, the Bulls don't have the advantage at the center position. The Bulls do have the advantage at point guard, as ever since that injury in 2009, hasn't been quite the same. What should be interesting is both teams really like to use their bench, so the team that does better in that area could decide the series.
(3) Celtics over (2) Heat 4-2
I trust that Shaq will be healthy. Why do I trust this? Mainly because I hate the Heat. That said, are we really going to let one game late in the season (a time where the Celtics have notoriously coasted the past couple years). The Celtics dominated the big moments of the first three meetings, and the first two didn't include Perkins. Perkins wasn't the reason the Celtics beat the Heat. He's a stopper. The reason is the rest of the team. Rondo is key, and Rondo should destroy what ever point guard the Heat try to throw at him.
Eastern Conference Finals
(1) Bulls over (3) Celtics 4-3
Good series. Good matchup. The Celtics have the experience, dominating the Eastern Conference the past three years. The Bulls are the young team, built in a deserving way, poised to own the East for years. Rondo vs. Rose should be spectacular. Noah vs Garnett should be as well. Just a great series, I really hope it happens. These are the two best defensive teams in the NBA, so this will essentially be the Ravens vs. Steelers of the NBA. Hopefully, like all those matchups in the NFL, this lives up to the billing.
Western Conference
1st Round
(1) Spurs over (8) Grizzlies 4-1
This is actually good news for Memphis, as they've never won a game in the NBA playoffs ever. The Grizzlies supposedly match up well with the Spurs, but that was with Rudy Gay, and two of the previous meetings (a Griz win and a close Spurs win) included Tim Duncan and then Tony Parker missing the games. Also, the Grizzlies tanked to play the Spurs. That shit won't work against the Spurs.
(2) Lakers over (7) Hornets 4-1
Not sure the Hornets win a game, but my guess is one time Chris Paul will just go Keyser Soze over Derek Fisher and Steve Blake. He's got one of those games in him. Other than that, without David West, the Hornets are hopeless. This is a one-sided series.
(3) Mavericks over (6) Blazers 4-3
I can't believe how many people love Portland, who always seems to be the stat-guys beloved team, a team that works a lot better in the statistical measures than on the actual court. The Mavericks also have Dirk, and historically have played the Blazers really, really well. Portland also scares me, because their best player is a post-player, and those usually don't work in crunch time. This will probably be a close series, but I trust the home team with the better closer (if not the best closer) in Dirk.
(5) Nuggets over (4) Thunder 4-2
This should be the best first round series, and as you can see, my only picked upset. Again, I think the Thunder are a team that looks a lot better on paper and in stat-guy's eyes then on the actual court. My biggest problem is that Russell Westbrook thinks he's as good as Kevin Durant, and is taking way too many shots these days. Also, the Nuggets can play defense now, and they love their coach and love each other. I know that sounds sappy, but this team has always been emotionally led, even in the Carmelo days. They also have the swagger and are virtually unbeatable in their current iteration at home.
2nd Round
(1) Spurs over (5) Nuggets 4-2
The Nuggets should bring out the best in the new Spurs. Both teams are extremely deep, both can run and hit threes, and both can play defense when necessary. I just feel that the Spurs have slightly better players, and they can play better defense when necessary. The Spurs also are more consistent day to day, so the Nuggets have the ability to play at level 10, but probably only for two games.
(3) Mavericks over (2) Lakers 4-2
Yup, you read it. Yup, I mean it. The Lakers are a weird team. They have the length, but the big lineup isn't their best at crunch time (no Artest on defense). The Mavs also have some things that work really well. First, no one on LA can guard Dirk at all. Secondly, the Mavs have enough bigs to throw at the Lakers, in Haywood and Stevenson off the bench to join Chandler. Also, they have the Beaboius factor, as his speed can give Fisher nightmares. Should be a fun series, and I just think that the Lakers think they can just push the "on" button, but sadly for them, the West is a lot better in 2011 than it was in 2010. The Lakers runs to the Finals have really been unimpressive over the years. They got a 8-5-3 seeds last year, and a Yoa-less Rockets team two years ago. The Mavs are the best second round opponent they've had.
Western Conference Finals
(1) Spurs over (3) Mavericks 4-2
Man, this should be a great series. These two teams always bring out the best in each other. The Spurs would die to see the Mavs again. They can run so much speed at that team, and the Mavs don't really defend the perimeter very well. The biggest problem can still be stopping Dirk, but Duncan has always done a good job, even in his advanced age. Both teams are deep and use their bench a lot, which helps the Spurs as their bench is just a bit better. Overall, the Spurs still owe the Mavs for the 2006 Second round, where the Mavs basically ended the Spurs run for two straight titles.
NBA Finals
(1) Spurs over (1) Bulls 4-2
Man, this would be a great series. Both games between these two teams were close, and the Bulls were at full strength each time. The Spurs have the experience. The Spurs also have no way of stopping Rose. However, the Bulls also aren't nearly as good stopping perimeter teams as they are at stopping post-up teams, and the new Spurs don't rely on Duncan and post-ups any more. About Timmay, he's prone for a great finals. His per-minute numbers have basically been as good as ever, and he is fully rested and ready.
Another reason I love the Spurs: no one loves them. It is strange. Here's a team that basically led the tough West wire-to-wire. Their record actually should be better, as a 6-game losing streak skews things. Of course, Duncan missed most of those games, and still, against four eventual playoff teams, the Spurs lost each game by less than 10 points. They played good even when they weren't playing good. Also, they didn't pad their record against all bad teams and struggle against good teams (like the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers). They were 2-1 against the Lakers (throwing away the game where they rested everyone). 1-1 against Chicago and Miami, 2-1 against Boston, 4-2 against the Mavs. They've been the best team all year, and also the most under the radar. I say that's just when the Spurs strike, just like when everyone slept on them the whole of 2005 and 2007. That's just how the Spurs roll.
'Till Next Time.
