Here is the first of many (or probably more like 3 or 4) Super Bowl breakdowns. I'll break down each team's position groups head-to-head.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger vs Aaron Rodgers
Two of the best young QBs in the league. Aaron Rodgers grew up this year, playing better under pressure and playing better in close games. He was on fire through two games of the playoffs before fading in the second half of the NFC Championship. Rodgers has played two playoff games indoors, both on the road (obviously), and the Packers has put up 45 and 48 points. Rodgers was in a zone, but it needs to be seen if he can play great against a great defense. Roethlisberger is, how to say it, not on fire. Other than two nice throws to ice the game, he was bad in the AFC Championship. However, he can play a lot better. The Jets were on a great defensive roll, one that is even better than the Packers is on right now. Roethlisberger played great against the Ravens the week before, and he also performs better indoors. He has a track record of playing great in Steelers playoff wins (with the AFC Championship game this year and Super Bowl XL being the two exceptions). I'll go with the experience of the big-time guy, who showed last year he can play pass-for-pass with Aaron Rodgers.
Edge: Steelers
RB: Rashard Mendenhall and Co. vs James Starks and Co.
Mendenhall was easily the best player on any of the four teams playing on Championship Sunday. He broke through tons of Jets tackles, and ran through a Jets' defense that had been one of the best against the run all year. The backups don't do much, as Mendenhall is one of the last true "feature" backs in the NFL. As for the Packers, James Starks had one nice game against the Eagles, who have a mediocre rush defense. Other than that, he hasn't done much. Brandon Jackson is nice out of the backfield. However, context matters here. The Packers gave up 4.7 ypc on the season, and the Steelers have been dominant against the run. This one is easy.
Edge: Steelers
WR: Wallace, Ward, Brown, Sanders vs Jennings, Jones, Jordy and Driver
The Steelers group is very underrated. Hines Ward is running on fumes, but the other three are really good at stretching the field. Mike Wallace can run shorter routes now, which he didn't really do last year, but the other two (who have really stepped up in the playoffs) are pure burners. That works perfectly with Roethlisberger propensity to throw deep. That said, the Packers group takes this. Donald Driver is doing a Hines Ward impression right now, but those other three are this year's version of the Saints Colston, Henderson and Meachem. They are really interchangable. Jennings and Jones are extremely similar, and although Nelson is used primarily out of the slot, but has been expanding his routes more now.
Edge: Packers
TE: Heath Miller vs Andrew Quarless
The Packers struggle defending tight ends. FootballOutsiders.com DVOA has the Packers rated 22nd against tight ends. Heath Miller is Roethlisberger's best option. He's essentially the Steelers slot receiver, as well as an amazing blocker (he was single-blocking Jets LBs and DEs). Quarless, while filling in nicely for Jermichael Finley, is nowhere near Heath Miller, who has been everything and more since the Steelers picked him in the 1st round back in 2005. Look for Heath Miller to have a big game.
Edge: Steelers
OL: Crap-tacular Pittsburgh vs Average Packers
While I do think that Maurkice Pouncey was a tad overrated, and the running game still played well with Legursky in there, this is really a no contest. Bryan Bulaga was beaten soundly in the second half of the NFC Championship, but still they are better in pass blocking and even in run blocking than the Steelers. This was is easy.
Edge: Packers
DL: Keisel, Hampton and Hood vs Jenkins, Pickett and BJ Raji
This is extremely tough. If Aaron Smith was healthy and playing, the Steelers would take it. Evander (Ziggy) Hood is playing at a high, high level. Probably just as good as BJ Raji (but isn't getting near the credit that Raji is - much like this Steelers team in general). Brett Keisel has really stepped up, and not only with his facial growths. Casey Hampton was a monster in the AFC Championship, continually beating Nick Mangold, but hadn't had a huge game in weeks. Cullen Jenkins is about the same, playing huge in the NFC Championship after having some down weeks. Ryan Pickett is just solid, much like Mr. Keisel. As you can see, this is really, really close, and I can't go one way or the other.
Edge: Even
OLB: Woodley and Harrison vs Matthews and Walden
Clay Matthews is a really good player, against both the run and pass. He's a pass-rushing monster and is great at looping inside. That said, the Steelers have two players who are about as good as two Clay Matthews. I would put James Harrison a tad better than Matthews (more dominant against the run), and Woodley a little lower (sometimes a run liability, but great at pass rushing). Eric Walden is what makes this easy. Since replacing Zombo, Walden has done a nice job, but he is nowhere near the player that Woodley is.
Edge: Steelers
ILB: Farrior and Timmons vs Hawk and Bishop
There is a reason that the Steelers have been a linebacker factory for years. Lawrence Timmons oddly is better against the pass (he's good in coverage and great at rushing the passer) at the ILB position, but he and Farrior combine to make one of the best ILB tandems in the NFL. AJ Hawk might look like Clay Matthews, but he is not the same quality of player. Desmond Bishop has been great, and he could play a big role in helping to shut down Mendenhall, but that said, the Steelers have the best quartet of LBs in the game.
Edge: Steelers
CB: SwagU, McFadden and Big Play Willie Gay vs Woodson, Tramon Williams and Shields
For those who don't know, SwagU is Ike Taylor, who has had a monster postseason apart from slipping down on Santonio Holmes' TD. Bryant McFadden has not been the player that he was two years ago for the Steelers in 2008. If anything, that is why the Steelers defense of 2010 isn't as good as the Steelers from 2008. Their coverage is not as good. The Packers, on the other hand, have the best coverage secondary in the NFL. Surprisingly, Charles Woodson has struggled in the playoffs, but Tramon Williams and Sam Shields have been amazing. The Packers biggest advantage is here in their corners.
Edge: Packers
SS: Troy Polamalu vs Charlie Peprah
One is a future hall of famer, who despite not being at 100% and not playing up against the run as much, is still a playmaker and could break out after the extra week off. The other is an average player thrust into a starting role and despite doing well, remains one of the few liabilities on the Packers back end. Troy Polamalu hasn't been good against the run of recent weeks, but that shouldn't be as important in this game since the Steelers front seven could stop the run against the Packers with one hand tied behind their back.
Edge: Steelers
FS: Ryan Clark vs Nick Collins
Ryan Clark is a lot better than his reputation of a savage, cheap hitter (based mainly off his cheap-shot of Wes Welker two years ago). He's good in coverage, good playing the ball, and can play the run. He's a sure tackler and is a force over the middle. That said, Nick Collins is one of the more underrated FS in the game. Nick Collins is great in coverage, and although he doesn't tackle well, or play the run well, he will be critical in slowing down the deep pass of the Steelers. This isn't a huge edge, but nonetheless, it is an edge for the Pack.
Edge: Packers
ST: Sanders and Suisham vs Someone and Crosby
I don't trust either kicker. Suisham has been really good with the Steelers, but historically he is not a great kicker. Mason Crosby has never really had to hit a clutch kick in years. The Steelers return game and coverage units are actually good for once, and due to all their injuries, the Packers return and coverage units are strug-a-ling.
Edge: Steelers
Coaching: Tomlin, Arians and LeBeau vs McCarthy and Dom Capers
Bruce Arians has a good rapport with Ben Roethlisberger. As is Mike McCarthy. It is more about Capers vs LeBeau. LeBeau ironically replaced Capers as DC of the Steelers in his first go-around in Pittsburgh. Both are in a zone. Both know how to scheme defense, and are adaptable. On offense, both have good rapport with their QBs. Mike McCarthy seems more stubborn, and will keep with the running game even if it not working and is in detriment to his team. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are a much better game manager than McCarthy and the Packers. I would give the Steelers the slightest of edges, but I think the defensive coaches, which are more important to their respective teams, is close enough to call this a draw.
Edge: Even.
The Final Count: Steelers: 7; Packers: 4; Even: 2
More stuff later on.
