1.) The Patriots become the first team ever to lose at home after going 8-0 at home in the regular season in back to back seasons.
2.) The Patriots become the first team ever to have a scoring differential over 200 and not win a single playoff game.
3.) Bill Belichick becomes just the second coach ever to have two 14+ win seasons that did not end in a Super Bowl title. George Seifert is the other one.
4.) Tom Brady becomes just the second QB ever to have two 14+ win seasons that did not end in a Super Bowl title. Peyton Manning (sad face) is the other one.
Now, on to the Title Games.
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears
State of the Teams: The Packers are easily the first 6-seed ever to be favored in a conference title game. Hell, even the 2008 Eagles were underdogs in Arizona (against a Cards team they beat 48-21). The Packers did indeed split with Chicago, including losing the only meaningful game they played against the Bears (I actually wrote about that game). The media seems to not care about that, because Aaron Rodgers had a great game in a dome against a mediocre defense. The Packers have found a nice running game in James Starks, but the best runner on Saturday was again Aaron Rodgers. The Packers defense was fast and got a ton of pressure against what was a good o-line.
The Bears, on the other hand, won convincingly in a game that was definitely closer than the 35-24 score shows. It was really 35-10 before the Bears went all prevent. They got great pressure on Hasselbeck, even though the Matthew has a tremendously quick release. Cutler himself had the nice YPA day that he normally does, exposing the Seahawks secondary, in the snow no less. The Bears absolutely shut down the Hawks running game, one that was good the week before. Hester was only given two true chances to return a punt, and one return went to midfield.
The Game: The matchups favor Chicago. Rodgers is playing out of his mind (more on that later), but he has struggled in his career against Chicago, with a 91.1 rating over the past two years (which compared to his QB rating against everyone else is struggling). Cutler has struggled as well against Green Bay in 2009, but played great against them with Denver, and had two good enough games this year. The real advantage comes with the Bears defense against Green Bay's offense. The Bears D first has great familiarity with the Packers. They also play them extremely well. The Tampa-2 Bears totally took out the run this year (3.2 ypc). They forced Rodgers into short passes, as they tackle well enough to limit the YAC numbers of the Packers. The Packers should also be able to contain the Bears offense, but in the game that mattered, the Bears were able to move the ball. The Bears also have a great edge on special teams, which matters. In big playoff games, teams for whatever reason get the guts to kick to Devin Hester. Hester already has returned a kick for a TD.
The Pick: I'm picking the Bears to cover and win. It boggles my mind that the Bears are underdogs at home, considering they have a better seed, were really impressive last week and have beaten the Packers in their only meaningful game against them (and held them to 10 points in a game that meant nothing to the Bears and everything for the Packers). Aaron Rodgers has been amazing (48-63 for 546 yards with 6 tds and no picks for a 133.4 rating). Yes he has. But that means nothing in the upcoming game. The NFL is a week to week league. Players can be hot and drop off immediately. Just to show this, here are one Peyton Manning's numbers in his first two playoff games in 2003 (including one in 13-3 Kansas City): 44-56 for 681 yards and 8 tds and no picks for a 156.9 rating (that's almost perfect for two straight games). Those numbers, amazingly enough, blow Rodgers' out of the water, which is hard to do. Manning's numbers the next game: 23-47 for 237 yards and 1 td and 4 picks in a loss in snowy New England, a team he struggled against and a team with a bad field. Almost a totally analogous situation here. Bears take it in a sloppy game.
Packers 17 Bears 23 (CHI)
AFC Championship
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The State of the Teams: The Jets enter the game on an obvious high. Their won over the Patriots was legendary and huge. Their zone defense stuffed the middle of the field, and due to New England's inability to get deep, they had nothing. The Jets crushed New England's defense, running down their throat, and Mark Sanchez played fine, but his wide receivers were amazing. Santonio Holmes' TD catch was one of the best catches I have seen ever. It was a ridiculous play, and the Jets receivers have been doing that all playoffs long.
The Steelers defense has never been better. Don't be fooled by the 24 points. 7 of those came via a defensive TD, and two others were due to short fields (one was a so-so pass interference). The Steelers held the Ravens, who came in averaging 150 yards rushing over the last two months, to 35 yards rushing (on 18 carries). They held the Ravens to a hilarious 126 yards on 53 plays. Ben Roethlisberger was his usual playoff self. Not totally accurate, but made huge plays when he had to. He had two td passes, including a sweet throw to Hines Ward. His throw to Antonio Brown was great as well. Both teams enter into the game playing well.
The Game: The matchups favor both defenses (amazing, huh?). The Steelers should be able to swallow the Jets running game, and the Jets should do the same. However, this is a bigger deal for the Jets, who have relied on the running game in both playoff wins. There is no way the could have beated Indy without the running game (Sanchez was average at best in that game), and the Jets will need him to step up. Luckily for him, the Steelers pass defense is not nearly as good as its run defense. Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are good enough to make hay of Ike Taylor/Bryan McFadden/Willie Gay. The Jets pass defense is good, but it needs to blitz Ben more. The problem is that Ben won't be a sitting duck like Brady. He will hold onto the ball (something Brady did), but won't be as easy to get down, and if he runs, he can throw better on the move. Roethlisberger also has the receivers to go deep on New York, which is possible. The Jets also have the advantage on special teams with Brad Smith expected to play. The Steelers are better than they normally are on kick coverage and kick returns, so it is not the huge advantage that the Bears have over the Packers.
The Pick: I'm picking the Steelers, maybe by a lot. Actually, I doubt the Steelers will score enough to make it a real blowout, but they should bottle the Jets totally. Mark Sanchez, when forced to throw in the playoffs, has not had good results. It only happened once, last year in Indy, but when Shonn Greene left the game and the run game went away, Sanchez struggled at the Jets failed to score a point in the second half. The Steelers have a historically good rush defense. I don't see their run game doing anything on Sunday, and all the pressure will be on Sanchez against a pass rush that was at its normal best on Sunday.
Jets 13 Steelers 24 (PIT)
