NFL 2014: Year-in-Review; Award Picks and Ranking the Non-Playoff Teams

Ranking the Non-Playoff Teams & What they Need to do to Compete in 2014

32.) Tennessee Titans  (2-14  =  254-438)

Figure out of Ken Whisenhunt is a good coach. The Titans have no real shot at improvement if Whisenhunt can only coach with insane offensive talent or get a ridiculous string of luck to go 8-8 in 2011. There's really been no in-between with Whisenhunt, who's now gone 5-11, 5-11 and 2-14 in three of his last four seasons. I think he is a good coach, but he seems to not be a good war-time coach at all.


31.) Washington Redskins  (4-12  =  301-438)

Figure out the RGIII mess. I wrote that exact same line last year. Somehow, despite the Redskins firing the Shanahans for no reason other than their inability to gel with RGIII (Jr. did well for himself, crafting a competent offense in Cleveland with nothing), the Redskins QB situation is more dire. Colt McCoy was used as a serious alternative. I have no idea how this ends. I just thank my lucky stars the Colts picked Luck.


30.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (3-13  =  249-412)

Hope Blake Bortles is good. Honestly, if he can step up his game, this can be a .500 team. The Jaguars have more talent than a normal 3-13 team, and assuming Gas Bradley stays, that defense can be average to slightly above average next season. Bortles was given little, and generally acquitted himself poorly, but if he has a sizable improvement, things won't be so dire.


29.) Oakland Raiders  (3-13  =  253-452)

Actually spend money wisely and build something. The Raiders had all the money to spend last season and spent it stupidly on aging vets. Luckily for them they were mostly short-term deals they can go away from this year. What they need to do is build more around Derek Carr and Khalil Mack. The future is there, but what could help is knowing they'll be in LA; probably easier to attract talent.


28.) Chicago Bears  (5-11  =  319-442)

Move on from Jay Cutler. Move away while he has some value. Obviously, no team is going through more structural changes than the Bears, firing the Team President, GM and Coach, but that anchor of a QB is still sitting there getting worse by the year. Sadly for the Bears, the talent in Chicago never aligned with Cutler's best years (2010-2011).


27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (2-14  =  277-410)

Draft Marcus Mariota and hope he is good. The Buccaneers could really be the 4th straight team to go from 2-14 and the #1 pick to over .500 (the '12 Colts and '13 Chiefs even made the playoffs). If Marcus Mariota can give the Buccaneers what Luck gave the Colts or Alex Smith gave the Chiefs, they can be a 8-8 team. That point differential does not spell 2-14, and that counts two massive blowouts that hurt them. They're a team that could surprise in 2015.


26.) New York Jets  (4-12  =  283-401)
 
Re-Hire Rex Ryan. Obviously, that is not happening, but I still believe that firing Rex is short-sighted. Idzik was the real issue. That team was bereft of talent and Rex had them playing hard each week. In meaningless games down the stretch, the Jets played hard for Rex. What Rex needs is an offensive coordinator that can really build an offense.


25.) Cleveland Browns  (7-9  =  299-337)
 
Commit to Johnny Manziel. I don't know if he's good. He was absolutely pathetic in his limited appearances. Of course, there were also reports of him partying and not putting the work in. Maybe that is a serious character issue that will never be resolved, but maybe that goes down if he knows he is the starter. It's a hope, but it could work.


24.) Houston Texans  (9-7  =  372-307)
 
Keep paying the NFL to schedule backups to play them. The Texans went 9-7. That looks good, as does the +65 point differential and them continuing to employ JJ Watt, but here are the QBs that they beat: RGIII, Matt Schaub, EJ Manuel, Chaz Whitehurst (x2), Brian Hoyer, Zach Mettenberger, Blake Bortles (x2), and Joe Flacco. The only real QB they beat was Flacco. If they can get that schedule next year, they're golden.


23.) Atlanta Falcons  (6-10  =  381-417)

Re-Hire Mike Smith. I'm usually not too critical over fires for teams that aren't near .500, but I think that was short-sighted. I get that Mike Smith made some in-game errors from time-to-time, but that team does not have too much talent and was ravaged by injuries. Thomas Dimitroff is as much to blame. This was a team that went 40 years without back-to-back winning seasons. They went 5-straight with Smith and tossed that away.


22.) New Orleans Saints  (7-9  =  401-424)
 
Start the Re-Build Now. I get that Drew Brees probably does not have too many years left, but after a disastrous season trying to go all in and making their already bad cap situation even more dire, the Saints are in a really rough spot. This is the NFL, so if they go 12-4 next year it wouldn't be too shocking, but the Brees/Payton era has seemingly reached the 16th hole.


21.) Minnesota Vikings  (7-9  =  325-343)
 
Re-Tool the Weapons for Teddy B. I don't think Bridgewater showed that he will be a very good QB, but showed that he will be at least decent. What isn't decent are the players around Teddy. Some of that is self-inflicted (Peterson), but some is aging (Greg Jennings) and misuse (Cordarrelle), but they need to surround Teddy with a little bit more to supplement that good defense.


20.) St. Louis Rams  (6-10  =  324-354)
 
Find a real QB, not a stop-gap. Maybe that is giving Bradford one more chance on an incentive-laden contract, or getting one in the draft, or even trading for Jay Cutler, but Shaun Hill or Austin Davis is at best a stop-gap. The Rams have talent all over the place, and are better than that 6-10 record. They could make a push next year if they get the right signal caller.


19.) San Francisco 49ers  (8-8  =  306-340)

Hope that Jim Harbaugh is not the one that got away. I'm not against this 'parting of ways' like I am with Rex or Mike Smith, because it seemed clear that Harbaugh himself wanted out. Still, losing a guy that went 44-19-1 is not easy. This team was the most consistent team in the NFC from 2011-2014. Jim Harbaugh revitalized football in San Francisco. That isn't easy to replicate.


18.) New York Giants  (6-10  =  380-400)

Hope that ODB is not the new JPP, and that JPP becomes the new other ODB. Odell Beckham Jr. had the best season of a rookie WR ever, apart from Randy Moss. The Giants have a lot to look forward to with ODB. Of course, the Giants probably felt the same way about JPP after 2011, and he's been hurt and relatively underperforming ever since. As for JPP, they have to hope he can become the new Ol' Dirty.


17.) Buffalo Bills  (9-7  =  343-289)

Get a QB by any means necessary. This is the team that could improve the most by simply adding an above average QB. An average QB would have had them in the playoffs if they didn't blow games against Houston due to EJ Manuel's incompetence, and Oakland due to Orton's. The Bills beat the Packers, let's not forget that. Their defense is excellent, and their offense has playmakers. If they can get a QB, and maybe that too is Cutler, they can make a good run. The problem is that getting a QB is not that easy.


16.) San Diego Chargers  (9-7  =  348-348)
 
Hope you can stick with your top center. In reality, just be less injured. The Chargers have a good QB, solid weapons, and a young defense that got a lot better from the 2013 version. If the Chargers can get consistent o-line play that resembles league average, this is a playoff team. Much of that was injuries, not a need for new players.


15.) Miami Dolphins  (8-8  =  388-373)
 
Continue on the path. There is way too much of an importance placed on non-linear improvement. The Dolphins may look cheap by bringing back Philbin, in reality, they're just being patient. What the AFC East teams should really be doing is trying to place themselves best for 2016-17, when Brady will likely vacate the division. The Dolphins have their QB, they've gotten better each year with him, and should take another step up in 2015.


14.) Philadelphia Eagles  (10-6  =  474-400)

Find a QB. Philadelphia can do better than most without top QB play, but they still need better production than what Sanchez gave them late, and even what Foles gave them early. In reality, this team should've been closer to 8-8 if the didn't get a completely unsustainable number of defense and special teams TDs. That offense needs to be better, and it starts with the QB, no matter how QB-agnostic Chip Kelly tries to make his offense be.


13.) Kansas City Chiefs  (9-7  =  353-281)

Get a WR that can score a TD. Really, the only thing the Chiefs are missing is a WR that can be a real dependable weapon. There are options in FA this offseason that should work. The Chiefs have a nice roster everywhere else, assuming Alex Smith doesn't suddenly get worse. That defense could use some improvement in the secondary, but the Chiefs are a good team.


Award Picks

Coach of the Year


3.) Ron Rivera (CAR)
2.) Jason Garrett (DAL)
1.) Bruce Arians (ARZ)

Now that the Panthers are in the playoffs, I think Rivera deserves a mention, despite his team winning five fewer games than last year. Rivera kept the Panthers engaged after their 3-8-1 start. His hands on coaching with the defense actively improved the unit as the season went on. Their play the last four weeks was impressive, winning with backups, and piling up two 31-point blowouts on the road in division.

For Garrett, he's succeeded in a spot no one thought would, winning in Jerry's World. The Cowboys just went 12-4 with the most balanced offense in the NFL. I feel like this is getting somehow undervalued by the media. Jason Garrett proved me wrong. He's a very good coach, capable of doing great things when people stay healthy.

That all said, this was Arians award to lose since about Week 8. The Cardinals 2-4 end to the season isn't pretty, but most of that came with the 3rd/4th string QB. Even past the QB problems, he lost two of his best defenders for the season (Dockett, Daryl Washington), and lost Mathieu, Calais Campbell and Cromartie at various points. Despite all that he kept the Cardinals humming to a franchise-record tying 11-wins.


Defensive Player of the Year

3.) Darrelle Revis (CB - NE)
2.) Justin Houston (OLB - KC)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)

Sure, Revis probably gets away with holding and contact that 'Random Dime-Back X' would get called for, but he's also tremendous. It took a little while for Revis to get going, but by the mid-point of the season he was back in full force, stopping each teams #1 with few exceptions.

2012 was the year of the sack, with Aldon Smith, JJ Watt and Von Miller each getting 18+. Now, those three were all amazing that year, and probably each had better years than the guy at #2 here, but Justin Houston was awesome in 2014. His 4-sack game put him at 22.0 for the year, the 2nd highest ever. He was absolutely dominant as a pass rusher, and did good work in the run game as well. It is amazing that he got 22 sacks and may not get a vote, and no one would feel slighted.

Why he won't get a vote is that JJ Watt is on track to be a Top-10 defensive player of all time. No one ever had two seasons of 20+ sacks until JJ Watt got his 2nd 20.5 sack season in three years. Watt was probably more dominant in 2012, when he had more hits and better play against the run. That said, having Watt match his 2012 performance to any degree is amazing.


Offensive Player of the Year

3.) Dez Bryant (WR - DAL)
2.) Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
1.) Demarco Murray (RB - DAL)

No one QB really stood out this year, as no one had 5,000 yards for the first time since 2010, and no one had more than 40 TDs for the first time since 2012. Because of that, we look to other positions. Dez Bryant had an amazing year, catching 16 TDs on the team that threw the ball fewer than any team in the NFL.

It was really hard for me to decide who should win between Brown, quite easily the best receiver in the NFL this season, and Murray. Brown was so consistent this year it defied logic. He had at least 5 catches and at least 56 yards in every game. He gets so open for a guy who really isn't that big. Antonio Brown was the only veteran receiver apart from Heath Miller in that offense, but it worked so well because of his brilliance.

That all said, I think a guy who rushed for 1,845 yards, caught another 56 catches for 400 more yards wins this award. Yes, there is concern over his far-too-many 392 carries, and 449 total touches, but those are problems for the 2015 Cowboys. In 2014, they won 12 games and had a great offense, in large part because of how much Murray did for them.


Most Valuable Player

5.) Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
3.) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
2.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)

I didn't want to pick a 4th QB, so I'll give my #5 spot to Antonio Brown, who's usage rate for a WR was ridiculous. Quick note, I will be outraged if Tom Brady gets more than 1 or 2 homer votes. He already stole a vote from Manning last year. He actually had a far better season this time, but Brady quietly had an average last four games. That team's real MVP was Rob Gronkowski.

Watt is my 4th pick. He's is by some measure the best player in football, but when you adjust that a DE is simply not as meaningful a position as a QB, it is hard to really vote for him. Does this mean that a defensive player will never win MVP? Maybe. I do think if JJ Watt had this season in 2008 or 2009, when there was no clear MVP QB (Peyton won both years, but he wasn't as good in those years as Rodgers was this year), maybe Watt would deserve it, but that is just the state of the modern NFL. I will say if he does win, it will be better than when Adrian Peterson stole Manning's award in 2012.

I had a hard time placing Romo and Ben. They were, to me, the 2nd and 3rd best QBs in the NFL. They were #2 and #3 in passer rating. They had similar TD/INT ratios (34-9 for Romo, 32-9 for Ben). Edge to Roethlisberger for playing a bigger part by volume in their team's offense, as Roethlisberger threw it 173 more times than Romo, amassing 1200 more yards. For Roethlisberger to have his best efficiency season the same year as his best volume season is no easy feat. Both are dinged by the presence of other candidates on their team, and that does ultimately put Ben ahead of Romo for me. That said, for people who think Romo doesn't deserve it, he basically had the same season Brady did when Tom won in unanimously in 2010. Romo actually had a higher passer rating.

In the end, it should clearly be Aaron Rodgers winning his 2nd MVP award. He was definitely not as good as he was in 2011, but Rodgers was the best QB, combining the volume of Ben with the efficiency of Romo. There was only one black mark on his resume, his awful game against Buffalo, but him coming back injured and leading their division-winning game clinches a deserving award for the best QB in the NFL.


Playoff Primer's Coming Next

My Top 10 TV Shows of 2014

Shows I haven’t watched so I can’t judge: The Newsroom, Homeland (will watch), The Americans (will watch), Transparent (will watch), Review (will watch), Broad City (will watch)

10.) Archer Vice (FX)

Archer was never a show that was going to get old doing what it was doing. There are enough interesting storylines involving faux-CIA operatives to go another season or two. The characters were still fresh and the dialogue still as cutting and sharp as ever. Some of the Episodes in the 4^th season were as good as ever. Still, Archer had settled into a solid routine. Then, it decided to change it all up and take a leap that was very daring, very risky, but worked really, really well. ISIS was disbanded. They happened on a metric ton of coke, and proceeded to do everything but flush it down the toilet in efforts to steal it. They worked in all characters in interesting ways at some point. It changed the dynamics of the show, but Archer Vice remained so damn funny. I will never get tired of Sterling Archer’s dialogue, and while Mallory is essentially just Lucille Bluth, given that she was my favorite female sitcom character of all time, I don’t have a problem with that. The show will return to its roots for a 6^th season (though losing the ISIS name given the negative connotations that have popped up since Season 4), and I think that will allow the normal operative capers feel fresh, but it may be losing something here. Given that Archer is an animated show, it is a bit easier to take this type of risk, but it is also easier to settle with familiar themes. Archer didn’t do that. Creator Adam Reed took a huge risk, and it ended by giving us the gold of Pam’s coke addiction, Sterling’s constant efforts to sell coke, and Cyrill’s complete breakdown.

9.) Inside the NBA (TNT)

Given that for 6 months (November through April) this is a weekly show, Inside the NBA essentially has a full tv season. It really should be considered a normal show. Why? Because it is about as funny and entertaining as any sitcom. There is little to no true analysis in the actual Inside the NBA (Kenny tries to do something at the halftimes). All there is is Ernie lobbing up question of Kenny, Charles and an increasingly comfortable Shaq, to tear down and run with. Why I think Inside the NBA really deserves to be recognized this season is that Shaq has become so much better than he was originally. The pairing of the humorous Shaq with the original trio seemed perfect on paper, but it didn’t really work. Even if Shaq was friends with Kenny and Charles, it is hard to break into their brilliant chemistry. This year, it worked, mainly because of Shaq giving as good as he got. His energy level increased, and he plays as well with Ernie as Shaq and Kenny did in the past. Ernie himself has gotten enough confidence to rip into Barkley at times. The show gives its true value in May, when they basically do it nightly during the playoffs. Chuck, Kenny, Shaq and Ernie put up a solid performance from Studio J basically every time. I really feel like writing to TNT to ask them to release the episodes On Demand like they would for their normal shows. I would definitely watch them.

8.) Orange is the New Black (Netflix)

Orange is the New Black would have ranked slightly higher in its first Season. I don’t think it was any worse in Season 2, but it did suffer from some normal Season 2 issues, like a loss of an initial storyline, or trying to fight the need to bring the gang back together. They changed the status quo early by separating Piper from what was happening in the prison, and definitely expanded the show far beyond Piper in Season 2, but I don’t know if it worked as well. Some of the new characters were really interesting, but there was slightly less narrative drive in Season 2, and the overarching plot of Vee vs. everyone was a little frayed. That all said, they created in-depth portrayals of new characters basically in each episode. They kept you interested and engaged in so many different characters and lifestyles. Orange is the New Black was hyped after a Great Season 1 not only because it was really good, but because it was so different. It was all women, it was mostly minorities. It was the strangest cast on television since probably The Wire, yet it worked so well. Orange is the New Black had a high bar to reach and I don’t know if it reached all the way there, but it came really, really close. I loved the way Orange is the New Black explored the older population of the prison, and the prison workers (guards, management), shining a light beyond the typecast roles of prison population. It continues to be one of the most interesting shows on TV, and a great softer version of Oz, with a female cast. I don’t know how long they can keep this up, or how long Kenji Johan would want to, but each time the ‘You’ve Got Time!’ song comes on, I’m intrigued.

7.) Last Week Tonight with Jon Oliver (HBO)

I haven’t seen every episode, but I’ve seen enough to give a good judgement of what this show is. It is great, just great. John Oliver was given the unenviable task of leaving the Jon Stewart Training Academy and trying to do something similar. Other than Colbert, no one left to do a work in a similar sphere. Jon Oliver did, but he changed it up enough to make it wholly his own. Oliver also succeeded far more than I would have ever imagined. He did a show that was based on the same elements of The Daily Show, with the right panel showing images while he talks over them, but Oliver took the added liberties offered by HBO (no commercials, 30 minutes, swearing) to create something all his own. The main highlight was clearly the long-form story that he broke down, examined, picked apart and mined for humor and insights like a seasoned pro. He took on topics that Stewart would ignore, or Colbert would mock, and embraced them. His ability to take these smaller topics (mostly, the Indian election is pretty large) and spend a good 10-15 minutes on them without a break and actually make people care was incredible. Oliver is not as funny as Jon Stewart, nor as singularly talented as Stephen Colbert, but he’s as dedicated and in his first year in this format he really made it work. Many thought that he would regret his move when Colbert was announced as Letterman’s replacement shortly before Oliver’s show started. Instead, Oliver made a name for himself all on his own, on a different network, and will be a constant presence on HBO for years to come.

6.) True Detective (HBO)

 

No show got more praise, and most of it was incredibly deserved. Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson were both brilliant in their roles as Rust Cohle and Marty Hart. The dialogue between the two was well written and played excellently. Director Kary Joji Fukanaga developed a look and feel to the show that challenged Breaking Bad in terms of its visual appeal. It was captivating stuff, a show with some truly great individual elements (not to mention Alessandra Dadarrio). So why do I only have it 6th? Because it has quite a few elements that would put it down a few pegs. First, it really failed to develop any characters outside of Cohle and Hart, especially the female characters. It also failed on its overall psychotic premise. The long talks of life being a flat circle and Carcossa were all shoved aside for being a true-to-form manhunt for a Serial Killer. It was still a good show with some awesome elements, but looking back I don't think it was any better than the five shows below it and a show that got overpraised for the select areas where it stood out from the pack.

5.) Game of Thrones (HBO)

I had a hard time placing Game of Thrones this season. On the one hand, the story was slightly aimless this year, just moving the pieces around the chessboard for future moves. Of course, there were some major storylines and plot points (and deaths), but we end with even more characters lost, roaming around Westeros and Essos. That said, I don't know if I've enjoyed a season of Game of Thrones more since Season 1. This year the greatness was concentrated around King's Landing, which centralized so much of the incredible action. I was enthralled with everything surrounding the death of Joffrey and the trail/sentencing of Tyrion. Most of my favorite characters resided there so it was particularly entertaining. I also liked the idea of justice finally being paid all around. I also don't think any show had so many 'Holy Shit' moments as Game of Thrones this year. We had Tyrion's speech, the entire Wedding with Joffrey, and the flight between the The Viper and the Mountain. There were some weaker points, such as the aimlessness of Dany's march through Essos, and the infuriating tease of how close Arya got to meeting Sansa after all those years, but those were generally given less time. I'll be intrigued to see where this show shifts focus now with Tywin dead, Tyrion on the run and few Lannisters left, but I trust that Benioff & Weiss, if not George RR Martin hmself, will be able to figure this one out.

4.) Nathan For You (Comedy Central)

Dumb Starbucks was what got all the headlines, it made Nathan for You and Nathan Fielder into somewhat known names, but the brilliance of Nathan For You goes far beyond just Dumb Starbucks, it goes into all of the ridiculous, inane but still unbelievably sharp ideas that he trotted out week after week. I worry about how far this show can go on without the small business owners getting in on the joke. It won't work as well if the businesses don't fully believe that this ridiculous man is actually trying to help them, but they do and it does. Personal favorites this year was the car-wash using tons of birds (including a peacock) to shit on cars outside the carwash; or the Daddy's Watching dating service, which again used the hilarious body-guard from Season 1. In reality, pretty much every subject and business Nathan takes on works well. He has an amazing way to act totally deadpan and hilarious at the same time, right after each other. It is hard to tell how much is scripted, but the best part's are what I assume to be unscripted, where Nathan talks to customers about the business changes. He's also amazing at the end of projects when he goes to slyly gloat about a half-or-quarter success. Nathan For You will be back with even more ridiculous ideas next year, and I can't wait to see if that DeadPan Hero can keep it going year after year.

3.) Silicon Valley (HBO)

It’s not hard to see why Silicon Valley succeeded. You take an established show runner in the comedy world in Mike Judge, and mix that together with some of the brighter minds in alt-comedy today, including TJ Miller and Kumail Nanjiani, with a seasoned comedy vet like Martin Starr, and you’ll get results. What is more surprising is the topic they chose to tackle. Back when Judge ran Office Space, the tech world was easy to make fun of. In the past 15 years, that world has now become easy to hate, with ridiculous money flowing in and it becoming a sign of corruption and greed as much as innovation. Well, Judge took that premise and ran with it, and boy did it succeed. Silicon Valley not only told the story of how a start-up is born and the decision making that goes on behind and in-front of the scenes, but managed to lampoon the actual Silicon Valley with his fake version of Google in Hooli, and the greed present in the area at the same time. It helps that he has an uber-talented group of actors to play easily written characters, one being a comedy force in TJ Miller, but the material and storylines were great. There are some open questions in Season 2, like if the show will work as well when Pied Piper becomes a heavily funded, focused start-up instead of 6-guys in a garage, and if they can replace the late Christopher Evan Welch’s character of Peter Gregory, the eccentric Billionaire funding Pied Piper, but the show did so well in Season 1 I can’t imagine it not working. Given the talent in the cast, and the propensity for these comedians to want to do other things, I can’t imagine this show lasting more than maybe four seasons, but I will be along the whole way. I’ll be remiss to not talk about the single best piece of comedy in the 2014 TV year, the long, unabridged masturbation plot-line. Breaking down how to most effectively jerk off 200 people in 10 minutes by using math is about as good as comedy can get in 2014. So was the show overall.

2.) Veep (HBO)

Unlike House of Cards, which got silier and strained as Frank's power increased, Veep only gets better as Selina Meyer becomes more important. Season 2 which dealt with her growing power and initial plan to start a campaign was better than Season 1, and Season 3 was even better than Season 2. The show's community grows larger but even stronger. There were a couple great developments in Season 3. First, I think they really utilized Andrew and Catherine well. They also have found comedy gold in Gary Cole's character pining after Susan. Then I think Jonah worked really well stripped of all power and going rogue with Ryan-Tology. Of course, the old standards still worked as well as before, with Julia Louis Dreyfus playing the hell out of Selina, and Gary, Dan, Amy and Mike being just as well used and structured now as they were in Season 1. The dialogue is still as effortless as ever, the insults just as cutting. Allowing Selina to travel outside Washington more and more has helped really focus the show as well, as seeing people from the craziness of Washington react to the relative normalcy of the rest of the world with contempt is never not funny. Having Selina be President in Season 4 will definitely be a change, but since she is still campaigning (not to mention behind Thornhill and Chung) there still is some basis that Selina is fighting for the Presidency, and more importantly the respect that comes with it. Speaking of respect, it is time people show Veep some as the best sitcom on TV that it is. Their list of awards should extend beyond Julia Louis Dreyfus and Tony Hale, to the entire show.

1.) Fargo (FX)

Other than The Wire and Breaking Bad, I don’t think I’ve seen a show have a better season of Dramatic Storytelling than Fargo did. Considering the challenge of taking an iconic movie, or rather arguably the iconic movie from two beloved filmmakers, and moving it to TV, this might have been the most impressive feat of TV Storytelling in a long, long time. All Hail Fargo, quite easily the best TV program I saw in 2014. Much like the movie, it is hard to truly describe what made Fargo so interesting and captivating. Fargo did have an incredible stable of interesting, well written and well played characters. The leads were all great, from Billy Bob's brilliant turn as Lorne Malvo, to Martin Freeman as the Jerry Lundegaard-inspired Lester; and of course Allison Tolman, who was quite a revelation. What really sealed the show's excellence for me was the long list of other characters that all fit in and were well placed, with characters like Don, to Mr. Numbers and Mr. Wrench, to Key & Peele's FBI agents, to Lou Solverson, to the Deputy, they were all well casted, written and acted. When you mesh together that many distinct characters, it could feel overcrowded but Fargo never did. Instead, the plot of Fargo worked excellently as well. It never strayed too close to the actual story, but wove around the same themes. What finished it to me was the setting, the cool wintery streets of Minnesota, which played as an excellent backdrop for all this strangeness. Fargo accomplished it all, mixing biblical references, fish falling from the sky, murder, insurance salesmen, high comedy, and higher drama. Fargo was TV's crowning achievement in 2014, and it may have even given Breaking Bad a run for its money if it was on in 2013.

2014 Year in Review: Top 9 Stories of the Year, Pt. 2

5.) A Dynasty by the Bay

[[I wrote about this here]]

Essentially, the Giants became a modern era dynasty for a New MLB. There are more playoff teams than ever. The Giants won the World Series in the first year of 5-playoff teams per league in 2012. They won a World Series in the first time that two teams that played in the play-in game made the World Series, doing it this year against similar Wild Card born Kansas City. They also won in 2010 when they were an ordinary good team beating two other good teams (Philadelphia and Texas) to win a World Series.

What the Giants also did was win with three different rosters, and two radically different ones. Buster Posey is the only player to start for all three teams. Pablo Sandoval was essentially benched late in 2010, but at least was on the team. Madison Bumgarner is the only constant in the rotation. Lincecum went from the dominant starter in 2010 to a castoff in 2014. Matt Cain went from consistently great in 2010 to injured in 2014. There was a Core-Four in the bullpen of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Javy Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt, but it’s hard to get too excited about four relievers winning three rings.

The Giants also had the ignominy of missing the playoffs in the two odd years, but that added a nice symmetry to what the Giants did. All playoffs long, people talked about #RoyalsMagic. The Royals were the darlings, a group of talented youngsters coming together all at once. They were led by a idiot manager who was quickly adding a ‘savant’ to the end of that label. They didn’t lose a playoff game until the World Series. Sadly for them, #EvenYearMagic is more powerful. The Giants won a 9^th straight postseason series (10^th straight if you include their Wild Card win over Pittsburgh this year). They’ve done something special. Let’s see if it can continue in 2016.

4.) Defense Still wins Championships

Entering Super Bowl XLVIII, all the talk was about cold weather, and a historic offense, and Manning’s ability to blow playoff games and all that nonsense. Some talk was on the interesting dichotomy between the best offense people had seen in some time (though they were more voluminous than efficient) and the best defense, especially best pass defense, people had seen in years. Well, that second talk ended up being a lot more important and very, very telling. There was no snow (that came, in droves, the next day). There was little wind. The conditions in New York were as good as possible. Still, the Seahawks defense smothered Denver, and brought a Super Bowl back to the Pacific Northwest.

10 months later it is still hard to think 43-8 happened. It was 36-0 before Denver scored. The game really all ended on the first play, when Denver center Manny Ramirez snapped the ball too early and it went for a safety. Denver’s defense held Seattle to field goals early, but a series of awful plays really ended the game. First was a Moreno fumble which turned a first down into a 3^rd and 7 (the ball was fumbled backwards, out of bounds). Manning threw a bad pick on the next play. Next was the pick-6 where Manning was hit was he was throwing, and Moreno, again, decided to just stand there and watch Malcolm Smith race to the ball and take it back for a TD to make it 22-0 and finally break it open. The dagger, though, was Percy Harvin starting the 2^nd half with a Kick-off Return for a TD. It was oddly the 2^nd straight year the eventual Super Bowl winner took the opening kick of the 2^nd half for a TD. Unlike in Super Bowl XLVII, there would be no blackout to get momentum back, just a fumble by Demaryius Thomas to end another drive in plus territory. When it was over, it was the biggest Super Bowl blowout by score since the Cowboys hammered the Bills 52-17. It was the 2^nd biggest ever, with just an even more humiliating Denver loss coming in worse, the 55-10 loss suffered in Super Bowl XXIV. Defense beat offense, again.

It is easy to write the story as Manning choking, or Denver failing. But it was more about the 2013 Seahawks playing to every bit of their ability. Their defense absolutely destroyed the Broncos short passes, and covered their normal deep receiver, Decker, perfectly. They totally swallowed up any hope of a running game, and got constant pressure on Manning. It was as if they had 12 guys on the field. Just a perfect gameplan by an already very god defense that allowed them to win the matchups all over the field. The Seahawks defense in 2013 may not be the best ever. It was probably not even the best to recently win a Super Bowl, with both the 2002 Bucs and 2000 Ravens having claims to be better, but against an offense that scored 606 points, they allowed 8. What the Seahawks did that no one else could, is give us a truly boring Super Bowl.

3.) Germany's Golden Generation

[[I wrote about this here]]

No team was so praised for continuing to fail at the last stages of tournaments than the German National Team from 2006-2012. They had reinvented themselves, reinvented their way of training, preparing and playing. They had a bastion of old stars and young stars. They were great teams that could at times play exceedingly attractive football. But they lost. They lost to Italy in the 2006 World Cup Semifinal (in Germany), and the 2012 Euro Semifinal (as heavy favorites). They lost to Spain (no big shame there) in the 2008 Euro Final, and in the 2010 World Cup Semifinal. Since this was Germany, it was seen as continuing a run of incredible success in competing for major titles. But this was not winning those titles.

In 2014, they won that title. Germany was the best team in Brazil this year from start to finish. They started their campaign with a 4-0 thrashing of Portugal. They finished by beating Argentina 1-0 in a game they were the better team by some amount (it was as one-sided as Spain’s 1-0 win over Holland in the 2010 Final). They were pushed at times. Ghana held a brief lead in their 2^nd group game (eventually it was a 2-2 draw), and France kept it close. But Germany was the best team. They had the most talent and, scarily, the most youth and depth. This Germany team gave a major trophy to Miroslav Klose, Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Per Mertesacker. Those four guys were there in 2006. It also gave a major trophy to a bunch of guys who aren’t even 23 yet.

The final was not the lasting memory of the tournament. The lasting memory was how great it was in the Group Stage, easily the best in recent memory. That memory will remain in our minds for four years. The other such memory will be that score of ‘5-0’ through 30 minutes. Germany played Brazil in the Semifinal. Brazil was missing captain David Luiz after he dumbly got carded late in the Quarterfinal, and Neymar, who got hurt in that same game. But they were at home… which probably hurt them. Germany cut them apart with exacting precision. It was brilliant, it was merciless, it was awesome in the literal sense of the world. Germany won by playing the best; a deserving trophy in the midst of a German Golden Generation.

2.) The Spurs kill the Big 3

[[I wrote about this here]]

I wrote about this way too much. I actually wrote a three-part series on the Spurs”

Part 1 – A look back at 15 years

Part 2 – The Spurs Lesson in Team Building

Part 3 – Championship #5 (above as well)

1.) The NFL shows how Not to Handle a Crisis

I did not write about the NFL’s bungling of the Ray Rice case and then bungling of the Adrian Peterson case mainly because I did not think I was qualified, and way too many people wrote way too much. I don’t think this will have long term implications for the NFL. I think this is far less of a risk than the concussion crisis was four years ago. I think this is far less of a story than BountyGate and SpyGate. That all said, this was the first time the NFL’s sordid dealings were seen by the nation as a whole. The NFL was given the paparazzi treatment. The NFL was the focus of TMZ, and Comedy Central, and everything else.

It all started with the innocuous Ray Rice incident in the offseason. It wasn’t too memorable. It was quickly forgotten. Ray Rice was going to go through the legal process. The NFL was going to adjudicate after. Both things happened. Ray Rice’s charges were dropped to misdemeanor level despite TMZ video of him dragging his then fiancée and now wife out of the elevator. Roger Goodell gave him two games. Not out of line for players accused of domestic violence in the past. But there was never video before. That little TMZ video changed everything, and not for the better.

Immediately the discussions began. Was this too little, should Ray Rice ever play again, is there any reason to ever hit a woman, what could Roger Goodell know? That last one made the most impact, because it was assumed he knew something the rest of the public did not, because if Ray Rice did knock out his fiancée and drag her out of an elevator, two games was way too little. In the end it seems Roger Goodell may or may not have known more, but what he could have known did not change anything.

Honestly, to me, the bigger issue was how the NFL reacted to the initial reaction. Setting up a panel of experts to come up with a more stringent policy? Good. Having that policy set at 6-games and immediately undermining it by the Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson suspensions? Bad. Roger Goodell’s press conferences where he had his usual terrible public presence? Bad. The use of the exempt list? Bad. The ongoing domestic violence issue? Bad. Basically nothing the NFL did worked to assuage concerns from outside and to satisfy people inside. It was a mess, but the biggest question still remains unanswered? How did Roger Goodell keep his job?

Roger Goodell has been commissioner for 9 years now, and the league has no doubt grown in popularity. It is a giant behemoth. Truthfully, it was 9 years ago as well, but ratings have increased each year. Popularity has increased. Nothing on TV sees ratings go up apart from AMC shows. The NFL did. That’s the cynical way to say why Goodell kept his job. But it is the reason. Under the stewardship of Goodell, the league has gotten better. The draft is more fair. The league is competitive. Sure, offensive production has exploded to somewhat uncomfortable levels, but that is a by-product of safety measures as well. The league is healthy, and what Roger Goodell has done is provide a bad enough public persona to somewhat take pressure off the league and shift it to him. The NFL is the country’s largest sporting entity by far, and I don’t think they’ve faced this level of examination from non-Sports entities before, and they did not react well. But the NFL keeps going, it will keep going. The NFL is bigger than Roger Goodell. His reduced power that was an outcome of all of this is a sign of it. The league did not handle this case at all. But the sport will go on.

2014 Year in Review: Top 10 Stories of the Year, Pt. 1

9.) The 'Death' of Barcelona

Barcelona has been rumored to be killed many times, but never did it seem so real as it did in 2014. In the spring everything literally went to hell in the Camp Nou. The Catalan boys found themselves in a real odd position: not in line to win any of the three major trophies (La Liga, Copa del Rey, Champions League). They weren’t far off in the first two, finishing 2^nd in La Liga (tied with Real Madrid but winning on h2h record), behind Atletico Madrid. They also found themselves in the final of the Copa del Rey against Real Madrid, but couldn’t find themselves in that game either. What’s worse was they came so close to winning those. They played Real Madrid who was sitting an injured Cristiano Ronaldo, but lost because Madrid’s newest glamour-boy, Gareth Bale, sprinted well past Jordi Alba, whose diminutive stature makes him a perfect Barca player, and drove a shot right past Victor Valdes. In La Liga, they hosted Atletico in the final game. A win would give Barcelona the title. Instead, despite leading 1-0 in the 2^nd half, they drew and lost the crown.

None of that compared to their flameout in the Champions League. Barcelona had made the Semifinals a ridiculous 6 straight years. That streak would end. Once again, it was Atletico Madrid. They drew the first leg 1-1 in the Camp Nou, and then lost 0-1 in the Vicente Calderon. Come May, in the Champions League Final, Barcelona had to sit on the sidelines watching their two biggest La Liga rivals play in a Final where one would get the double. Real Madrid won ‘La Decima’ after a 12 year break, and Barcelona was almost clearly the 3^rd best team in their own country.

Sadly, their problems extended off the pitch. Upper Management was caught up in scandals surrounding their purchase of Neymar, which went into shady payments to ‘corporations’ owned by Neymar’s family, and an incorrect disclosure of the amount which Barca did to skate by tax laws. It ended with Barcelona’s President getting sacked, and having to publicly apologize to the footballing community. There were scandals around the appointment of Tata Martino as manager replacing the, now late, Tito Villanova. Martino had no experience in Europe, and was seen as a dummy coach hand-picked by Messi, a sign of Leo’s growing influence in the club at large. That ended in disaster, and another manager sacked. Finally, there was a transfer ban put in place after Barcelona had been revealed to have violently disobeyed the rules regarding signing foreign youth players. Of course, being Barcelona, the complained and the transfer ban was delayed in time for them to go on a splurge, but Barca showed itself to be just another club on the pitch, and considering how haughty they consider their brand to be, off the pitch as well.

8.) Rory McIlroy has arrived?

It has now been 6-and-a-half years since Tiger Woods last won a major. It has been two years since he’s even come close. Since that incredible US Open win in 2008, Woods has missed more major than he’s finished in the Top-5. His chase of Jack Nicklaus is so much on hold it may as well be a plane at Newark Airport. For the first few years following Tiger’s implosion, the common refrain in Golf is that no one was stepping up to fill his shoes. There was a string of majors with different winners (not counting Padraig Harrington, who won both majors in 2008 after Tiger left to fix his knee – about 30 injuries ago). In 2014, that all was put to bed. We are squarely living in the Rory McIlroy era now.

Rory McIlroy finished 3^rd in a major in 2009 at like 15. He won his first major in a Wire to Wire win in the US Open in 2011, beating the field by 5 strokes. He won his second the next year in the PGA Championship, but then his career kind of went to hell. He started dating the beautiful Dane Caroline Wozniacki, who herself had her promising career go to hell. McIlroy was inconsistent, never placing in the Top-10 of a major outside of his wins. He was more Mickelson than Woods, and that was seen as an insult to even Mickelson. The pressure was getting to him, the expectations, the forces of adulthood. Even his relationship came into question; certainly his maturity did when he bluntly broke off his engagement.

While he may not be the greatest fiancée, he became a great golfer. McIlroy won the Open for the first time, finishing -17, beating the field by two strokes, leading after every round. It was brilliant golf by a player who had shown brilliance before. What was more important was he finally followed up on that brilliance. The biggest criticism of McIlroy was that he could be Nicklaus one week and Duval the next. This time he just stayed good. He won a WGC tournament right after the Open. He then cemented his new dominance by winning the PGA Championship in August, fending off a charging Phil Mickelson. He’s now won 4 majors. He’s still well behind Tiger’s early pace, for now we have a real competitor. For now, the questions of ‘Can he catch Tiger?’ are not so stupid. He’s just 10 behind at 25. There really doesn’t seem to be much real young competition, just a bunch of guys that all may win one major at some point but never really challenge. Rory McIlroy’s era has begun. And it could be a long time before he gives it back.

7.) Roger Federer Returns

Because of a rain delay that ruined the schedule of play on Labor Day, 2013, Roger Federer’s 4^th round match of the US Open was moved off of Ashe Stadium to Louis Armstrong. Despite Louis Armstrong being more packed than ever before, it was an odd sight. Here was Roger Federer, the 17-time Slam Champion, the guy who won 5-straight US Opens, playing on the 2^nd court. Of course, when he proceeded to lose in straight sets to Tommy Robredo, a man Federer had dominated, it all seemed even stranger. It ended a meek season for Federer at the slams. It was the third successive slam when Federer bowed out well before we are used to him seeing. He lost meekly to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in straight sets at the French Open. He lost shockingly in the 2^nd round to Sergiy Stachovsky at Wimbledon (the day after Nadal was upset in the 1^st round). Finally he lost to Robredo in the Round of 16. His tough 5-set loss to Andy Murray in the Oz Open semifinal seemed like a world away. Federer, by year end, had dropped to #7. He was not only behind Nadal, Djokovic and Murray (who had won all four slams and were the finalists for each slam other than Ferrer’s appearance in the French Open Final), but behind Ferrer, Tsonga and Berdych. It seemed slightly natural given his decreasing play over the years. 2013 was the signal of the end.

A year later, Roger is reborn. He, slowly and assuredly, rose up the rankings going up all the way to 500 points behind Novak Djokovic. He finished the year at #2. He finished the year a Davis Cup Champion for the first time, and a man who made the final at the Year-End, along with winning tournaments in Dubai, Queen’s Club, Cincinnati and Shanghai, the last two being Masters-1000 level events. He had a splendid year. He was retooled (literally, using a 98-inch frame after years of sticking with a 90-incher). He was re-energized. And he was close to extending that slam lead.

In a weird way, Federer achieved his high ranking (and nearly #1) in a way he would have never wanted if you go back to Fed’s real prime. Back then he scoffed at the idea of players being highly ranked without winning slams. He always said how slams were the most important. Now that he stopped winning slams, he went in another direction, and it nearly worked. Federer played all the tournaments, despite his age. He went deep almost everywhere. He racked up points at tournaments where Djokovic was on the sidelines. He nearly got to #1 in a real grass-roots effort. He didn’t, really because of one loss in the biggest match he played all year.

Entering the Wimbledon Final against Novak Djokovic, Federer was the people’s favorite. He had navigated an easy draw playing sublime, attacking tennis. Djokovic was a challenge above the pay-grade of his previous opponents, but Federer raised his game. Federer was brilliant early, and hung tough late. He served-and-volleyed, and kept Djokovic off guard in a way only he can. He raised his game to meet the level of the sports (healthy) master. It wasn’t enough in the end. After savings match points in the 4^th set, and breaking Djokovic when serving for the match in the 5^th, Federer finally gave in getting broken late to lose the set 7-5 and match in 5. It was a great match, the best those two have played at a slam. It didn’t end with Federer upset at Novak for hammering winners like the 2011 US Open Semifinal. It only ended with two winners. Djokovic got the trophy. Federer got the respect and the internal belief that his career wasn’t really all that over.

6.) And Then there were 4...

For years and years and years, the three most dominant letters in College Football was ‘S-E-C’. That, or ‘B-C-S’. One or the other was always a source of controversy, no more so than the SEC benefiting from the BCS. That silly computer system that ruled college football for 14 years finally ended in 2014. What proceeded became one of the most interesting seasons in recent memory. While there were definitely some famous missteps by the BCS, over time the BCS started to weigh computers less and polls more. Computers gave us Florida State in the 2000 National Championship game and not an historically loaded Miami team. Computers gave us Oklahoma in the 2003 National Championship and not an historically loaded USC team. However, computers would have not given us Alabama in the 2011 National Championship Game and allowed LSU to not have to beat a team to win the title that it already beat on the road. Computers and polls would have given us various title games. Now, the four teams competing give us the title game.

Is there still controversy? Sure. The biggest this year probably being that Ohio State jumped TCU in the final weekend despite TCU winning their last game 55-3. Of course, OSU won 59-0 over a ranked opponent, and is a bigger media draw than TCU. My guess, and this is totally random with no real basis, is that if it was Texas in the #4 position and not TCU, they don’t get dropped. Anyway, that Top-4, instead of ruining the regular season as many BCS-supporters claimed, made it even better. Instead of two spots to fight for, there were four. Teams that lost games early in the season weren’t immediately removed from consideration. Alabama lost an early game and got back in. So did Ohio State, and Oregon, and, almost, TCU. Sure, some of the brilliance of this season was just having a lot of good teams, an otherworldly SEC West, and the right mix of upsets at the right time, but it was also what this new system is designed to do.

It helps that the NCAA knew how to market the hell out of this thing. The weird weekly Playoff Ranking review show became must-see TV for College Football fans. It put random old people (including, and I still can’t believe this is true, Condi Rice) on TV. There was no real transparency, no real method. They didn’t have to go by polls, or strength-of-schedule, or quality wins, or computers. Honestly, considering how opaque this process is, if it was this exact same panel deciding which two teams would play in the game, it would have been destroyed. Instead, just multiple the number of spots and it becomes amazing. The inevitably result of this exercise is a more fair and balanced 8-team playoff, but for Year 1 of the great College Football Experiment, all those old fogies who decried the death of College Football’s regular season were proven very, very wrong.

NFL 2014: Week 16 Power Rankings and the Rest

The "Who wants Marcus Mariota" Quinto

32.) Tennessee Titans  (2-12  =  231-390)
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-12  =  211-376)
30.) Oakland Raiders  (2-12  =  213-381)
29.) Washington Redskins  (3-11  =  257-370)
28.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (2-12  =  254-367)

There are so many interesting competitors this year, so let's just move on from these teams, shall we.......


The "Two Metropoles, NFC South Teams and YOung QBs enter a bar, and Jay Cutler Kills them All
" Septo

27.) New York Jets  (3-11  =  230-360)
26.) Chicago Bears  (5-9  =  296-409)
25.) Atlanta Falcons  (5-9  =  348-369)
24.) New York Giants  (5-9  =  317-339)
23.) Cleveland Browns  (7-7  =  276-300)
22.) Minnesota Vikings  (6-8  =  277-297)
21.) New Orleans Saints  (6-8  =  364-374)

None of these teams are any good. Somehow, one of them will be a playoff team (unless Carolina runs the table and the Saints blow it... very possible, I guess). The Jets are bad, but they do play hard. To me the real problem with that team is that they are in a full rebuilding mode after years of living year-to-year with Tannenbaum, who never met a draft pick he didn't want to trade. The Giants are arguably in more dire straits given Eli's age. The Browns have no QB (by the way, has there ever been a QB who's terrible-ness was met with such joy?). The other teams are all interlopers. The Vikings could be 10-4 with a little luck, but could be 4-10 with a little bad luck. Mike Zimmer has made that defense really effective, but I feel that Bridgewater has been consistently disappointing. The Falcons have no defense. The Bears have no defense. The Saints have a defense that will play one good game in 14, and a QB who can have the most garbage 29-36 game ever. The worst part is one of these NFC South teams will likely host a team QB-ed by Ryan Lindley in Round 1.


The "Teams that will Suck the Life Out of You" Quatro

20.) Houston Texans  (7-7  =  324-277)
19.) Carolina Panthers  (5-8-1  =  288-358)
18.) San Francisco 49ers  (7-7  =  251-285)
17.) Miami Dolphins  (7-7  =  327-301)

All of these teams have proved competent to some point or another. They are all listed in order of what level they should have been. The Texans are right where they should be. They capitalized on a truly awful schedule and having a human Bowser in the lineup to get to 7-7. But now they are playing either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum. The Panthers didn't win a game for 9 straight weeks, but are just 1/5 game behind in the division. Their defense has finally started to play average just as Cam Newton survives death. The 49ers are a complete mess, and their advanced stats don't even hide a team that should have done better but lost close games. They've been outscored by 34 points. That is not good. Finally is Miami, who started the year outscoring New England 23-0 in the 2nd half in Week 1, and then just got outscored 27-0 in the 2nd half of the return leg. It is hard to say they haven't gotten better each year under Philbin, but that rate of return is glacially slow right now.


The "Is Jeff Fisher recreating his Tennessee tenure?" Uno

16.) St. Louis Rams  (6-8  =  291-297)

In 1996, 1997 and 1998, the first three years of Jeff Fisher's tenure in Tennessee (yes, he started that long ago), the Titans went 8-8, 8-8, 8-8. In the first three years of Fisher's St. Louis tenure, they'll go 7-8-1, 7-9 and, probably, 7-9. Now, going 8-8 three straight years is better than 7-9, but the Rams are doing what Tennessee did. Those Titans went 13-3 in the 4th year, with a defense that kept them in every game, and an offense built on 4-yard runs by Eddie George and Steve McNair's underrated balls. The issue for the Rams is they don't have a clear Steve McNair type, but they have everything else. If Peyton Manning played for that team, they would go 12-4 at least. Jeff Fisher is building something. It may take until 2016, but I hope the Rams have that amount of patience.


The "Soft Underbelly of the AFC" Trio

15.) San Diego Chargers  (8-6  =  303-294)
14.) Kansas City Chiefs  (8-6  =  322-254)
13.) Cincinnati Bengals  (9-4-1  =  311-289)

The Chargers and Chiefs play each other. They both also play a tough game in Week 15. The Chiefs have the easier road, as two straight wins will get them in the playoffs (they'll have h2h wins over both potential 10-6 teams). The Chargers probably have the higher ceiling. But the Chiefs have essentially been a better version of San Diego all year long. For the Bengals, I still can't believe they've lost just 4 games. I feel like they've been terrible ever since their bye and them getting housed by New England back in Week 5. Yet there they are. If they win just one more game, they're in the playoffs. They even have somewhat of a shot at 9-6-1. Somehow, the Bengals are right there, despite no one liking them. If they did anything this year, though, it was smash what dignity Johnny Manziel had left.


The "If only they had a QB" Uno

12.) Buffalo Bills  (8-6  =  302-254)

The Bills were 2-2 after four games when they benched EJ Manuel, the Bills turned to Kyle Orton, who basically retired in the offseason. Orton has not been great. Far from it. Orton has been average at best, and has looked downright awful the past two weeks. Yet, the Bills have everything else. They still have o-line and durability issues, but they have good weapons (Sammy Watkins is still very good), a stable of running backs, a deep d-line that is among the best in the NFL, and a deep secondary that has played well. They have everything but a QB. Their defensive performance against Green Bay was just frightening.


The "They just have a Fatal Flaw" Trio

11.) Philadelphia Eagles  (9-5  =  416-347)
10.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (9-5  =  389-339)
9.) Dallas Cowboys  (10-4  =  381-328)

All three of these teams are good. They all three can make the playoffs, but I can't see any of them getting too far. The Eagles have a system that will most likely score a bunch of points, and have a defense that is far better than people think when not putting Bradley Fletcher in 1v1 coverage with Dez Bryant with little help. Their issue is the QB. Mark Sanchez has been alternating slightly above average and horrible games. Nick Foles wasn't too much better when he was healthy. They've stopped making ridiculous Special Teams plays all the time, and now their scoring has gone to shit. The Steelers and Cowboys are almost like the same teams. Both have good QBs who are having career years. They have dual-purpose Running Backs who are great. They have dominant WRs, in Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant. Finally, they both have defenses that are, on the whole, not very good. These flaws will kill them long term. Dallas has a shot if the matchups break well (Arizona, Seattle), but if that is the case they'll be in for a rude awakening going to Lambeau with that defense.


The "Challengers to the AFC Hegemony" Duo

8.) Indianapolis Colts  (10-4  =  424-317)
7.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-5  =  376-267)

The best two teams in teh AFC are QBed by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Amazingly, this will be just the fourth time the Top-2 seeds in the AFC will be Brady's and Manning's. Of course, it will be the third in a row. It is looking like the Patriots will take the #1 seed this time, the only change to last year's standings. The only two teams, in my mind, that can break an inevitable Broncos vs. Patriots AFC Championship Game (and an even more inevitable Patriots win), are these two. The Colts have been a little up and down lately, and there is discussion on Andrew Luck's ball security (the fumbles are, and really should, be a way bigger issue than the picks). The defense is still good against anything outside of great QBs, which is nice. Of course, both Manning and Brady are pretty good. The Ravens are just a solid team at everything. Their one weakness is their injury-riddled secondary. Of course, their biggest strength is a nice complement, in their top Front-7. Both teams have a shot in Week 2, and if the Ravens can steal that division (they'll need both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to drop a game), it lines up nicely. The Ravens get to go to New England in the #1-vs.-#4 matchup, where they match up better, and the Colts get to avoid New England, where they don't match up at all.


The "Is it 1960?" Duo

6.) Detroit Lions  (10-4  =  281-238)
5.) Arizona Cardinals  (11-3  =  287-244)

These two teams are still playing like it is the 1960's with defense, run games, and bad QB play. I feel so bad for the Cardinals. They went 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs. This year, they go 11-3, pass every challenge, but are now down to their 3rd string QB. They are resourceful as hell, and Bruce Arians is a fucking wizard, but they'll likely lose to Seattle, and be relegated to a game in the Superdome for all their troubles. The Lions are the other big winners from Buffalo's win over the Packers, Unless they want a bye, which is theirs if they win out, this upcoming game against Chicago is meaninglesss. They'll keep their shot at a division even if they lose to Chicago. The Lions will change as we know them, and this has been maybe the least memorable or fun 10-win season by a continual bottom-dwellar.


The "Great QBs, and Maybe Other Stuff?" Duo


4.) Green Bay Packers  (10-4  =  436-325)
3.) Denver Broncos  (11-3  =  407-303)

The sheen has come off the Packers a bit, and that horrendous offensive performance has shone light on their struggles on the road this season. That will become important since they have basically no shot of getting the #1 seed now. Unless upsets, they'll have to win a road playoff game. Guess who else will have to? Denver that team tied for the best record in the NFL, but the one that no one thinks is playing well. They've had seven wins against teams with winning records (IND, KCx2, SDx2, BUF, ARZ). They're really good, but let no one tell you that.


The "Maybe they should just play Super Bowl XLIX tomorrow" Duo

2.) Seattle Seahawks  (10-4  =  339-242)
1.) New England Patriots  (11-3  =  442-280)

Final Score: Patriots 34  Seahawks 31

Both Tom Brady and Russell Wilson have perfect passer ratings and get assumed to heaven.


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  13-3  (@NYJ (w); vs.BUF (w))
2.) Denver Broncos  =  13-3  (@CIN (w); vs.OAK (w))
3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-5  (@DAL (l); @TEN (w))
4.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-5  (@HOU (w); vs.CLE (w))
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-6  (@PIT (w); vs.SD (w))
6.) Pittsurgh Steelers  =  10-6  (vs.KC (l); @CIN (w))


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  =  12-4  (@ARZ (w); vs.STL (w))
2.) Green Bay Packers  =  12-4  (@TB (w); vs.DET (w))
3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-4  (vs.IND (w); @WAS (w))
4.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-8  (vs.ATL (w); @TB (w))
5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  11-5  (vs.SEA (l); @SF (l))
6.) Detroit Lions  =  11-5  (@CHI (w); @GB (l))


Awards Look

Coach of the Year

1.) Bruce Arians (ARZ)
2.) Jason Garrett (DAL)
3.) Jim Caldwell (DET)

With the Cardinals clinching a playoff spot, this is basically guaranteed for Arians. He will win this award for a 2nd time in three years. That is incredible. I still think Garrett is flying a little behind the radar as a COTY candidate. They were a laughingstock after Week 1, but Dallas has played well, gotten the most out of its talent. I really have no idea who should be in 3rd, but Caldwell took over a team, made them disciplined, and has them close to another playoff berth.


Defensive Player of the Year

1.) JJ Watt (HOU)
2.) Justin Houston (KC)
3.) Darrelle Revis (NE)

I'll give Revis a quick nod just because he's been very good and turned this Patriots team into a Top-10 defense. He's not as good as he was in New York at his peak, but he's damn close. Houston has had an incredible season for the Chiefs in both pass rush and run protection. In the end, though, this is so clearly JJ Watt's award. No one else should get a second of consideration.


Offensive Player of the Year

1.) Demarco Murray (DAL)
2.) Antonio Brown (PIT)
3.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Yes, I think that one pathetic start will cost Rodgers a chance at the OPOTY award. You have to be pretty special as a QB to win it, or have no real good candidate at RB or WR (like Brady in 2010). For Rodgers, there is a better WR and RB candidate. Antonio Brown has been absolutely amazing all season for the Steelers, piling up 6-9 catches every single game. I think Murray will win it with his record setting pace (for yards from scrimmage), and his incredible usage rate.


Most Valuable Player

1.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2.) Peyton Manning (DEN)
3.) Tony Romo (DAL)
4.) Andrew Luck (IND)
5.) JJ Watt (HOU)

Watt should not win the award, but I can't think of a defensive player being a better choice. For the rest, the only real switch is replacing Demarco Murray with Tony Romo, which I think is fair. Tony Romo has been amazing this season. We saw them fail miserably without him in the one game he missed. He has a 28-8 TD/INT, with an 8.4 YPA and a league leading completion percentage. He's got the 2nd best passer rating in the NFL right below Rodgers. What stops him from being higher is Murray's presence. Manning to me is going so under the radar right now. Yes, they're not going to be the #1 seed, and yes they've been worse than last year, but Peyton Manning has been the best QB in the NFL by advanced stats. For Rodgers, he's just been the best.


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Tennessee Titans (2-12)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)  (TNF - NFLN)
15.) New York Giants (5-9)  @  St. Louis Rams (6-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call this "No one has anything to play for" Thursday and Sunday


14.) Buffalo Bills (8-6)  @  Oakland Raiders (2-12)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Green Bay Packers (10-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) New England Patriots (11-3)  @  New York Jets (3-11)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Baltimore Ravens (9-5)  @  Houston Texans (7-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Detroit Lions (10-4)  @  Chicago Bears (5-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call this "Almost as bad, the Home team has nothing to play for" Sunday


9.) Minnesota Vikings (6-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (7-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call this "Why the hell am I intrigued by this game" Sunday


8.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)  @  Washington Redskins (3-11)  (Sat. 4:30 - NFLN)
7.) San Diego Chargers (8-6)  @  San Francisco 49ers (7-7)  (Sat, 8:25 - CBS)

I call this "Saturday Football!!!!!" Saturday


6.) Cleveland Browns (7-7)  @  Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Indianapolis Colts (10-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (10-4)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call this "Intriguing for all the Wrong, and all the Right Reasons" Sunday


4.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call this "Another normal Sunday in the NFC South" Sunday


3.) Denver Broncos (11-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)  (MNF - ESPN)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers  (9-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call this "Let's Separate the AFC, or Maybe Muddle it up some More" Sunday and Monday


1.) Seattle Seahawks (10-4)  @  Arizona Cardinals (11-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call this "Does Ryan Lindley stand a Chance" Sunday