NFL 2013: Week 1 Picks (and a little More)

First a quick note about my NFL coverage on the blog. I'm starting work (actual work) tomorrow. I'll almost definitely have less time than ever to write about the NFL, because I'll have less time to even think about the NFL. I'll still make picks, but my hilariously long 'Power Rankings & The Rest' pieces will probably be massively trimmed or gone alltogether. Anyway, here are the picks for week 1.

(all lines from Sportsbook)

Baltimore Ravens  @  Denver Broncos  (DEN -7)

Since 2004, Peyton Manning is 10-2 in home night games. I don't know if this is true, but the '2' is. Anyway, until last year's divisional round, Peyton Manning hadn't lost to the Ravens since 2001. Well, that is over now. This used to be one of the greatest locks in football, the defending champion opening at home. Well, the Giants lost last year and now the Ravens have to open in Denver (New England really lucked out, as NE @ BAL would have probably been the opener). I'm happy the line isn't higher. Vegas really doesn't like the Ravens this year (their over/under is 8.5), but they're giving them some credit. The Broncos don't have Von Miller, but the Ravens don't have Boldin and Pitta, two people who really did well against the Broncos in the playoffs. Both teams have something to prove, but I feel like Manning angry is definitely better than Joe Flacco angry. Also, I don't know how to trust an Ed Reed-less and Ray Lewis-less defense just yet.

Ravens 20  @  Broncos 31  (DEN -7)


Kansas City Chiefs  @  Jacksonville Jaguars  (KC -4.5)

I'm starting with the worst 1PM games first. This one is quite terrible. The Jaguars are along with Oakland everyones pick for the worst team in the NFL. The Chiefs, I would imagine, will start the season well under Andy Reid. Trouble may not come until later in Kansas City. With Justin Blackmon out, the Jaguars just don't have any firepower at all. The Chiefs are fully healthy coming into this game. The line is high for a middling team on the road being the favorite, but I think the Chiefs cover it quite easily.

Chiefs 24  @  Jaguars 13  (KC -4.5)


Miami Dolphins  @  Cleveland Browns  (CLE -1)

I definitely like the Dolphins more than Cleveland for the year, but with the even line, I'm unsure about how it will play out in this one game. The Browns have some optimism right now under new leadership. As with most things about the Browns these days, the key comes down to whether they can score enough to hang with Miami. The Browns o-line is average, and Cameron Wake could go wild against Cleveland. Brandon Weeden looked awful in their dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Colts, and I hate to use preseason performances to justify my opinions, but I am doing just that. I'm shocked the Dolphins are underdogs here, and it screams out to me as great value.

Dolphins 23  @  Browns 14  (MIA +1) 


New England Patriots  @  Buffalo Bills  (NE -10.5)

I wonder what this line would have been if Jeff Tuell was the starting QB for the Bills. Probably in vintage 2007 Pats range (the year of the famous -21 line against Baltimore). Anyway, it is EJ Manuel, which I guess decreases the near certainty of the Pats blowout. I don't really trust New England to cover double digit spreads anymore, but there are a lot of plays for the New England side here. First, they were in a really similar situation last year when they went to Tennessee, had a double digit spread and covered it easily. Secondly, I could really see BB trying to prove to the NFL that his offense works. And what if the EJ Manuel led offense does nothing? Still, I don't trust high lines like these, and I don't think Buffalo is a terrible team.

Patriots 31  @  Bills 23  (BUF +10.5)


Tennessee Titans  @  Pittsburgh Steelers  (PIT -7)

The Steelers have covered each of their last seven home openers. That's a nice stat I like to bring out every now and then (namely, right now and never again). The Steelers, even if they are just a 9-7 type team with a slightly above average offense and defense, should definitely win this game. The Titans don't really have the type of offensive players to challenge the Steelers. They can't really spread out the field. They can't really get a ton of pressure on Ben since they don't have those players. The Steelers have to win this type of game if they want to really go anywhere this year. I think they will go to a lot of places and win this game quite easily.

Titans 13  @  Steelers 27  (PIT -7) 


Minnesota Vikings  @  Detroit Lions  (DET -6)

Interesting game and an interesting line. I'm surprised that the Lions are favored by so much. This line essentially means that Vegas thinks they are three points better than Minnesota on a neutral site. The Vikings were six games better last year. But I can see what Vegas is telling us here, the Lions are far better than the 4-12 from 2012, and the Vikings aren't nearly as good as the 10-6 from 2012. The Lions are quite good a run defense, and while Peterson did quite well against them last year, it was still good enough to win all two meetings last year. Obviously, I'm leaning towards the Lions winning the game, but that line is just really high. I hate picking a team to win and not cover when the line is less than a TD, but it does happen a lot. I can see the Lions finally winning a close game, extolling a lot of their demons from late last year when they blew lead after lead. In that way, the 2013 Lions are quite similar to the 2012 Vikings, a team that is more talented than their previous year record where they blew a ton of leads.

Vikings 24  @  Lions 31  (DET -6)


Oakland Raiders  @  Indianapolis Colts  (IND -10)

I'll sum this one up easily: if the Colts don't win this game, then their season is essentially over. If they don't cover this game, they aren't a playoff-caliber team. I think they are both (though I don't think they get there), but they should beat a terrible Raider team quite easily. Covering a double digit line is hard, even at home against a potentially awful team. If I pick them, then I'm revealing my Pats-hater skin for not picking them to do the same thing (albeit on the road) against a similarly talent disparate team. Anyway, this long winded reasoning leads me to giving the Colts some benefit of the doubt.

Raiders 17  @  Colts 30  (IND -10)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @  New York Jets  (TB -4.5)

The Return of Revis! Somehow, it means nothing to me. I don't expect to watch a second of this game on Sunday. I guess the Jets are starting Geno Smith, but he's terrible. He was so awful on that game, so completely lost on the field. It was staggering to watch, really. Now, the Buccaneers don't have a great defense, but it is good enough to cause major problems. The bigger issue is the other side, the Jets defense against Tampa's offense. The Jets, even in last year, absolutely dominate any offense less than average. The Bucs are better than average on paper, but I don't trust Josh Freeman at all at this point. I can see the Jets defense playing really, really well in this game. Rex is coaching for his life, and he can't trust that QB. This line seems too high for an average team on the road as well.

Buccaneers 16  @  Jets 20  (NYJ +4.5)


Seattle Seahakws  @  Carolina Panthers  (SEA -4.5)

These two teams played last year in Carolina midseason. The Seahawks led 16-12 in the 4th quarter, with the Panthers driving. The Panthers faced a 4th and Goal and didn't convert, eventually losing by that score. What I'm trying to say is the Panthers came close to beating them last year. The Seahawks struggled last year in 1PM games on teh East, losing at Miami and Detroit, and I can see a similarly bad performance here. Bruce Irvin is missing, and the Seahawks are being pumped up a little too much right now for my liking. I can see them dropping week one and then the nation collectively reevaluating their Seahawk-love. Also, the Panthers defense is really well built to play the Seahawks offense. They can shut down taht run game. They have coverage linebackers that can contain the short passing. I really like the Panthers getting so many points at home against a good matchup for them.

Seahawks 20  @  Panthers 24  (CAR +4.5)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Cincinnati Bengals  @  Chicago Bears  (CHI -3.5)

Andy Dalton gets a nice little test for the season that can change the way we all view him. The Bears almost assuredly won't be the dominant defense they were last year, but they are still a fantastic defense on paper. What this game comes down to is how much can the short passing game orchestrated by Trestman-Cutler can get on that defense. The thing that disrupts Trestman's passing game (assuming it resembles what it was back in 2002 when he was the OC for Gannon's gnat attack) is quick pressure, and the combination of the Bengals dominant front and the Bears relatively weak line could spell doom for Cutler. The Bengals just match up really well against any team with anything less than a good O-Line. Geno Atkins, along with Dunlap, Johnson and all the rest, could dominate that matchup in the trenches. Add that to the fact that the Bears are the favorite(?), and this seems like an easy pick for me.

Bengals 24  @  Bears 17  (CIN +3.5)


Atlanta Falcons  @  New Orleans Saints  (NO -3)

Really tough game to pick here. Really tough. On one hand, the Falcons are still a more complete team than the Saints. Their offensive firepower is about as good adn their defense is still better despite their personnel losses in the offseason. On the other hand, the Saints are probably foaming at the mouth to play a game with Sean Payton as their head coach again. If we look to last year, the last time these two teams played, the Falcons picked off Brees 5 times and ended his TD streak. I don't think they do nearly as good against the Saints in this game, but I still like the Falcons to win this game. More than any pick, this is heart over head to some degree, but I just don't see the Saints returning to being a 13-3 team now that Sean Payton is back. For all of the bad things about Gregg Williams, his track record on defense is a whole lot better than Rob Ryan's.

Falcons 31  @  Saints 27  (ATL +3)


Arizona Cardinals  @  St. Louis Rams  (STL -4.5)

Big line for a team playing against a good, solid defensive team in Arizona. The Rams seem like the better team, but the wild card here is how Palmer does in Arians offense. If he can revive that offense, the Cardinals could be a real frisky team all year long. What scares me is that their first test is against one of the better D-Lines in the NFL. Quinn, Brockers and (especially) Chris Long could dominate the inferior Cardinals O-Lineman. On the other side, the Cardinals can do the same in a lot of ways to the Rams, but I have a little more trust in St. Louis to adjust and not be as bull-headed as Bruce Arians is with his system. This is a long way in saying that in the old-school game of the week, I think the team with lesser questionmarks win.

Cardinals 13  @  Rams 20  (STL -4.5)


Green Bay Packers  @  San Francisco 49ers  (SF -5)

Is this going to be a Week 1 tradition from now on? The Packers bookended their season to slightly humiliating losses to the 49ers. Obviously, the divisional loss to the 49ers was embarrassing enough, but even their Week 1 loss at home to the Alex Smith was quite bad. The 49ers front dominated the Packers lineman in both matchups. I can't see that really changing here. What I am worried about is if the Packers have figured out the 49ers offense. They weren't able to really stop it when it was Alex Smith leading a more conventional offense, and they had even less ability to stop the Kaepernick led offense. I can't see them giving up 45 points and 579 yard again, but I can see them holding it down enough. In the end, the line is low enough that I can pick the 49ers and be comfonrtable with them not having to have them blow out the Packers to still hit the bet, and that is what I am depending on.

Packers 21  @  49ers 30  (SF -5)


New York Giants  @  Dallas Cowboys  (DAL -3.5)

The Giants haven't lost in Cowboys Stadium yet. I love that stat. Now, three of the wins were in awesome games that came down to the wire. The first was the first ever game in Cowboys Stadium back in 2009 (remember the 'Other Steve Smith', he played a big part), and the second was the catalyst for the Giants 2011 Super Bowl run. Then was last year's win by a pinkie. Now, I have the Giants going 12-4, and the Cowboys not going near that, so I kind have to pick the Giants for now. My preseason projections won't impact my picks forever, but they do to a point in teh first few weeks. The Giants are extremely comfortable in that stadium. Maybe it is the fact that they get to wear their home blue. I love to see Jerry Jones steaming mad after losing another game to the Giants at home and I think we see it once again.

Giants 31  @  Cowboys 24  (NYG -3.5)


Philadelphia Eagles  @  Washington Redskins  (WAS -4.5)

I'm picking the Redskins to win and cover, but first a little reasoning on why I'm so down on the Eagles this year. I think Chip Kelly's offense is nice in theory, but is totally ill-fitting for the NFL. I have no doubt NFL teams can run a play each 15-20 seconds; hell, the Pats did it for a while last year. The problem is getting first downs. If they go three-and-out, they're giving the ball back to their opponent in a minute or two. That defense, which is awful, could get taxed quickly, forcing the Eagles to play catch up, which is hard to do in a run-first offense. I also don't think Michael Vick is the best QB to run this offense. These were the problems that Oregon ran into in their eventual losses, like the 2010 BCS National Championship loss to Auburn. I just don't think it works nearly as well as people are saying.

Eagles 17  @  Redskins 28  (WAS -4.5)


Houston Texans  @  San Diego Chargers  (HOU -5.5)

For the first time in many, many years, this late game isn't just one bad AFC West team at another. Instead, we get an AFC Power going to a middling AFC team. Still, that makes it far more watchable than previous versions of this 2nd MNF game. I definitely think the Texans are a far better team, but this is a tough game. I can see some good feelings going around the Chargers right now in Week 1. They should have a nice crowd, and I would love to see the Texans lose and then the world going crazy about their 0-1 start after their 1-4 finish to last season. Anyway, this is running really long, and while I may not have another chance to right somethign this long for a while (just to make a quick point, I will defintiely be making a single-pick piece for the TNF game) I'll just end it by saying that I will live or die with Philip Rivers this year.

Texans 23  @  Chargers  24  (SD +5.5)

NFL 2013: AFC Preview

AFC East

4.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-12

Lost: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Donald Jones, (DE) Chris Kelsay, (CB) Terrence McGee, (OLB) Nick Barnett, (WR) David Nelson, (G) Andy Levitre

Gained: (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Doug Legursky, (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Alan Branch

The hiring of Doug Marrone seemed a little strange. Here is an semi-unknown, semi-successful college coach getting a job in the NFL when many very successful and known college coaches have failed. But maybe that is the method in the Bills madness. After all, this guy was the Offensive Coordinator for the 2006 Saints. As for their immediate outlook, the Bills still seem to be stuck in that perenially 5-11 or 6-10 mode, with some nice pieces, no depth and few front-line players. Their hyped D-Line actually played decently well, but their steady secondary fell apart, something I can't see getting better. Their o-line also loses its best player in Levitre. Add in to that the fact that EJ Manuel, already probably overdrafted, has two fewer weapons than Fitzpatrick had (Nelson, Jones), and you get another long year in Buffalo.


3.) New York Jets  =  5-11

Lost: (CB) Darrelle Revis, (G) Matt Slauson, (DE) Mike DeVito, (RB) Shonn Greene, (ILB) Bart Scott, (S) LaRon Landry, (S) Yeremiah Bell, (NT) Sione Pouha

Gained: (NT) Antonio Garay, (RB) Chris Ivory, (OT) Willie Colon, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (S) Dawan Landry, (TE) Kellen Winslow Jr.

The greatest 'gain' for the Jets may not be on the field, but in Jeff Idzik, a man who can stand up to Rex Ryan. Ryan is a brilliant defensive strategist, but he did his best work with mostly Mangini's players (2009 & 2010 Jets), and as Rex guys came in that team went to hell. Of course, if they could have had a league average QB and league average receivers, they might be a playoff team. The talent (and the coaching) is still there, but the QB just isn't. Even if it isn't Sanchez, I can't see Geno Smith succeeding enough as a rookie for Rex to keep his job. It is a shame, because I really like most of their defensive pieces and the Jets will probably continue to outright dominate any marginal offense they face on that side of the ball. But when you add Sanchez/Smith with Chris Ivory as lead back and Santonio (off an ACL injury) and Stephen Hill, even if you have a potentially great O-Line, that is not nearly good enough.


2.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-7

Lost: (ILB) Karlos Dansby, (OT) Jake Long, (RB) Reggie Bush, (ILB) Kevin Burnett, (CB) Sean Smith

Gained: (WR) Mike Wallace, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (TE) Dustin Keller, (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Brent Grimes, (WR) Brandon Gibson

Everything really depends on Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins have a nice team around him, with a defense that transitioned just fine to the 4-3 (especially Cameron Wake, which had to be the biggest concern for them in that switch), and with Clabo, Keller and of course Mike Wallace, the offensive pieces around Ryan Tannehill are really good. What isn't though is Tannehill. Sure, he was a rookie, but I feel like people propped him up with his far superior fellow rookies. The guy had more interceptions than TDs with a y/a under 7. That is not exactly a good season even for a rookie. Can he raise his game? I'm sure it is possible, but I think for Tannehill, the jump to a playoff caliber QB is more likely to occur in 2014 than 2013.


1.) New England Patriots  =  11-5  (4-seed)

Lost: (TE) Mr. Alleged Homicidal Maniac, (WR) Wes Welker, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (G) Donald Thomas, (S) Patrick Chung, (WR) Brandon Lloyd, (DE) Kyle Love

Gained: (DT) Tommy Kelly, (WR) Danny Amendola, (QB) Tim Tebow

Well, that was a most un-Patriots like offseason ever. And to remember when it was just about their rookie corner's felony assault trail (yeah, that happened). Here we are, and here the Patriots are, missing their second TE, their two starting receivers from last year, and with spare parts and injury reclamations to replace them, along with Danny Amendola. If Rob Gronkowski misses any serious time they could be in real trouble. I'll assume he doesn't for this (all accounts are without further setbacks he'll be back soon enough), and say that the Patriots are still the best team in the division, but they are damn fortunate they are in the AFC and not the loaded NFC. They can't have Brady's performance from 2006 (the last time his weapons were this mediocre) and expect to go anywhere, because the 2006 Patriots had the league's 3rd best defense. Some may say the Patriots defense is getting better, I will say it is still decidedly average. Their run game should pick up some of the slack, but predicting anything more than an 11-win season is putting more trust in Belichick than even I want to give. Of course, I have been way off on New England before (2010 season).


AFC North

4.) Cleveland Browns  =  5-11

Lost: (DE) Frostee Rucker, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (TE) Ben Watson, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs

Gained: (OLB) Paul Kruger, (DE) Quentin Groves, (TE) Kellen Davis, (QB) Jason Campbell, (CB) Chris Owens, (WR) Davon Bess

The Browns seemed to have a much louder offseason than they really have, as their only real FA acquisition that can really help the team in the short term is Kruger. They had a nice draft, I guess, but I generally think rookies really altering a team's one-season outlook is more the exception than the rule. Mike Lombardi will probably use this year as a full try-out season, starting with Weeden, and there is a lot to sift through. The O-Line is mostly set, as is the defense, but switching to a 3-4 seems like a horrible idea. It doesn't really fit the good Browns defenders already there (Jabaal Sheard, specifically, seems like a man without a country right now). It is easy to say good things are coming because they have a new owner and management team, but the owner is the CEO of a company currently under Federal Investigation, and their GM is a guy who most Football Fans know to be a babbling stooge, so I can't really be that kind.


3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-7

Lost: (ILB) Ray Lewis, (S) Ed Reed, (OLB) Paul Kurger, (CB) Cary Williams, (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB), (C) Matt Birk, (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (FB) Vonta Leach

Gained: (OLB) Elvis Dumervil, (DT) Chris Canty, (ILB) Daryl Smith, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Marcus Spears, (S) Michael Huff

The 2013 Ravens will not resemble the 2012 Ravens at all. Obviously, Ray and Ed are gone, but so is Pollard (hope they don't get the Pats in the playoffs without their Pats killer - not to confused with Aaron Hernandez a Pat Killer), Paul Kruger, Cary Williams and Dannell Ellerbe. They are replacing more than half their defense, yet their defense could be better. All of their replacements, when healthy, are good players. They were lucky to have Dumervil fall into their lap, but he and a healthy Terrell Suggs should replicated what Paul Kruger and a unhealthy Suggs did in 2012. Offense is the big issue for me with Baltimore. First of all, their offense wasn't all that great last year. They were great in the playoffs because Anquan Boldin decided to play as well as he has in five years and Dennis Pitta 'made the leap'. Of course, Boldin is gone and Pitta is gone, leaving Joe Flacco where he was back in 2009-10, with just one trusted receiver to throw to. I like their being proactive and getting Stokley and Clark, but that's not nearly what they are replacing. That division is tough and schedule is tougher. Add it all up and I think the Ravens miss the playoffs for the first time in the Flacco/Harbaugh era.


2.) Cincinnati Bengals  = 11-5 (5)

Lost: (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Pat Sims, (CB) Jason Allen

Gained: (OLB) James Harrison

It is hard to believe that this will be Marvin Lewis' 10th year in charge of the Bengals. 10 years without just four playoff appearances and nary a playoff win. Of course, this team is headed in the right direction and has a really bright future, so it would be the wrong time to fire him. There is one question mark though, and that is Dalton. At some point, we have to wonder if this is the best Dalton gets. He really got no better in his second season and was not good down the stretch. He has enough to throw to and a decent O-Line and a more than decent running game. Everything is there, and if Dalton takes that next step, they can really start to challenge for AFC North supremacy soon. I am predicting them to take another step up to 11-5. That defense is incredibly stacked at every level, and their backups are about as good as a few teams starters. If young guys like Dre Kirkpatrick take another step up, this could be the best defense in the NFL. Their offense just needs to do what it did last year, or maybe improve like 5%. If they can solidify their receiver position across from Green, that team could really be the top team in the AFC for the next ten years.

 
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  12-4  (2)

Lost: (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OLB) James Harrison, (WR) Mike Wallace, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (S) Ryan Mundy, (OT) Willie Colon, (G) Doug Legursky

Gained: (CB) William Gay, (OT) Guy Whimper

Since 2000, the Steelers have done an interesting cycle. They miss the playoffs every three years ('00, '03, '06, 09, '12) and make the playoffs in all the years in between. Their records in the year immediately after missing the playoffs: 13-3, 15-1, 10-6, 12-4, and in that 10-6 year, they started 10-4 before resting everyone the last two weeks. A lot of my Steelers prediction is simply blind faith in the LeBeau University Pipeline. The Steelers had a lot of aging defensive players last year and those guys are mostly gone. In pure Steelers fashion the replacements are there, they just need to play well. The Steelers season comes down to whether Ziggy Hood, Cameron Heyward, Steve McClendon, Cortez Allen and either Jason Worilds or Jarvis Jones can replace Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, Keenan Lewis and James Harrison adequately. I think they can, for the most part. I also still like that offense without Mike Wallace, as that O-Line cannot possibly be ridiculously injured once again, and with their run game more settled that offense can actually be quite good. Trends and hopes, that is what my Steelers prediction is based on, but in a way all of these are.


AFC South

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  3-13

Lost: (OLB) Daryl Smith, (S) Dawan Landry, (CB) Aaron Ross, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (WR) Laurent Robinson, (RB) Rashad Jennings

Gained: (OLB) Geno Hayes, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks

I've seen a weird trend in my recent predictions for teams with new coaches in that I always feel like they will bottom out with the new coach in year 1, instead of taking a small boost up with a new coach. Of course, that was also true of the 2012 Jaguars, who went 3-13 with first year coach Mike Mularkey. I still don't think the team is any good, especially after losing three decent players on defense (Daryl Smith, Landry and Knighton), and replacing them with lesser players (Geno Hayes, Marks). Of course, they still employ - and plan to start - Blaine Gabbert. Sure, there are layers that struggled early and ended up good, but almost no one struggled to the level of Gabbert and ended up a good player. Personally, I think they play this year out with Gabbert, get another really high pick and select Teddy Bridgewater or someone. 


3.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-11

Lost: (G) Steve Hutchinson, (TE) Jared Cook, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks

Gained: (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (TE) Delanie Walker, (G) Andy Levitre, (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick

How is Mike Munchak really still they're coach? The Titans have bled talent since Fisher left after 2009 and while they still have some nice fantasy pieces (I can see a big comeback season for Chris Johnson), and had a decent offseason with getting the best guard on the market, and getting known Patriots killer Bernard Pollard. It comes down to the prospect of Jake Locker improving or not. He was simply not very good in 2012, with a Gabbert-esque 74.0 QB rating, and 56.4% completion percentage and more INTs than TDs. I actually didn't realize he was 'that' bad in 2012. In his defense he doesn't have much to work with, but the Titans need a Jake Locker that might never be there. The real issue for the Titans is their absolutely horrible defense in 2012. They had bad special teams luck, so their league-worst points allowed is probably extreme, but they just don't have any legitimate pro-bowl type player on that defense. The schedule is light, but in my mind that makes them a decidedly below average team instead of a terrible one.


2.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-8

Lost: (DE) Dwight Freeney, (WR) Donnie Avery, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (S) Tom Zbikowski

Gained: (G) Donald Thomas, (CB) Greg Toler, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Erik Walden, (DT) Ricky-Jean Francois, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) LaRon Landry

The Colts can be a better team and 2012 and still have an 8-8 record. They really were a 6-10 or 7-9 team that lucked (literally and figuratively) their way into an 11-5 record. They set records for best record in one score games, and Luck led an NFL-high 7 game winning drives. They went out and spend a boatload of money because they had enough to spend (even more next year), but the question remains if they spent it wisely. It has to be said that every new Colts FA acquisition is better than the person they replaced (the only debatable one is Erik Walden relacing Dwight Freeney). If they can stay healthy, Landry and Toler can make a huge weakness into at least a competent secondary. Donald Thomas and Gosder Cherilus could make that line competent. The problem is that defense still has no real identity, and some of the good luck that went their way won't. The Colts always had injuries, but they were remarkably healthy at WR in 2012. If Wayne (or Hilton) gets hurt, Luck may have issues. The Colts have a really bright future, but their 2013 probably won't be where it starts. That will be 2014, and if the Free Agents work, for many years after that.


1.) Houston Texans  =  12-4  (3)

Lost: (S) Glover Quin, (OLB) Connor Barwin

Gained: (S) Ed Reed, (P) Shane Lechler

There is still no reason the Texans have to take a step back. I feel that the Texans ended the season so badly last year that people assume they were really like a 10-6 team that somehow won 12 games. I still think they are quite a bit ahead of the Colts. Matt Schaub was hurt late last year, and their O-Line was as well. Fix those two things and this is a great team once again. JJ Watt can't possibly be that good again, but with Brian Cushing back for hopefully the whole season, and a healthier season with Jonothan Joseph should still allow the Texans to be a Top-10 defense. At the end, they have an easy schedule. They do draw Baltimore, Denver and New England, but they also have their own division, Arizona, St. Louis and the rest of the AFC West. 12-4 is probably their peak, but I'll go with their peak once more. Of course, the Texans have failed me in the past (look at my 2012 preview), but the Texans are still one of the most talented teams in the NFL.


AFC West

4.) Oakland Raiders  =  3-13

Lost: (QB) Carson Palmer, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (DT) Tommy Kelly, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (S) Mike Mitchell, (TE) Brandon Myers, (S) Michael Huff

Gained: (QB) Matt Flynn, (CB) Tracy Porter, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs, (OLB) Nick Roach, (OLB) Kevin Burnett, (RB) Rashad Jennings

For someone coming from Green Bay, Reggie McKenzie was really active in signing free agents. Now, he did it in a smart way, giving a bunch of 'wily old veterans' one or two year deals, basically as capable placeholders till he gets some draft picks to replace him. He went scorched earth with the remaining Davis guys which is fine, but losing Palmer, Heyward-Bey, Kelly, Shaughnessy, Brandon Myers and Michael Huff is quite a bit to replace. Some of the new guys are decent, but they have no pass rush, average guys in the secondary, and few weapons for Matt Flynn, who I assume will be their QB. The Raiders are moving in the right direction, finally cutting away the Al Davis years. I should note that Al Davis, almost seeing his death coming, actually managed to make the Raiders talented enough to probably have been the best team in the AFC West in 2010, but it never worked out. McKenzie did what he had to do, and these could be some lean years. It will be interesting to see if he holds onto Dennis Allen if the Raiders go 3-13 or 4-12.


3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  6-10

Lost: (OT) Eric Winston, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (CB) Javier Arenas, (WR) Steve Breaston, (G) Ryan Lilja, (QB) Matt Cassel

Gained: (CB) Dunta Robinson, (QB) Alex Smith, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike DeVito, (WR) Donnie Avery

Sometimes narratives don't die. I am guilty of this - just look at my constantly over-optimistic Giants predictions, but there is an interesting thing going on with the Chiefs. Coming into the 2012 season, they were a trendy Wild Card sleeper pick because of Jamaal Charles returning and Romeo Crennel's defense playing better. Well, those things happened. Charles had a great year, the defense had a decent year, and they went 2-14. Now, because Andy Reid comes in, with Alex Smith replacing Matt Cassel (an upgrade, sure, but not a huge one), people are predicting the same things. They also lost some pieces. I do think they will be better because Andy Reid is a better coach than Romeo Crennel and because Alex Smith is better than Matt Cassel, but they aren't my sleeper playoff candidate. That team is coming up.


2.) San Diego Chargers  =  10-6  (6)

Lost: (G) Louis Vasquez, (NT) Antonio Garay, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (OT) Jared Gaither, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DE) Shaun Phillips

Gained: (CB) Antoine Cason, (CB) Derek Cox, (DE) Dwight Freeney, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (T) Max Starks

Boom. The Chargers. The AFC is so lean right now that one of these seemingly bad teams will make the playoffs. I'm going with the Chargers. What makes me nervous is that they lost some good players, but I like their pickups. Derek Cox is still a good corner, Dwight Freeney came on late last year and could do better in their scheme. Danny Woodhead should do great in that offense playing the role Darren Sproles used to. Philip Rivers just can't be that bad again, can he? That is what this pick comes down to. If Philip Rivers gets to close to what he was from 2008-2010 (in which time he was definitely one of the three best QBs in the NFL in those three years), with the Chargers easy schedule they could make some hay in the AFC.


1.) Denver Broncos  =  13-3  (1)

Lost: (DE) Elvis Dumervil, (OLB) DJ Williams, (CB) Tracy Porter, (RB) Willis McGahee

Gained: (WR) Wes Welker, (G) Louis Vasquez, (OLB) Shaun Phillips, (CB) Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (ILB) Stewart Bradley

I pegged them at 12-4 last year, losing the AFC Championship to Houston. Well, they did something like that in 2012. The loss of Dumervil is big, but I like them replacing him with Shaun Phillips (which was making the best out of a bad, crazy situation). I just loved their offseason. Everyone they picked up make sense. Louis Vasquez is one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL. Terrance Knighton is still a good run stuffer. DRC, on a one-year deal, is perfect in the way they play that defense, and Jammer is a nice piece to transition from safety to corner and back. There are two big questions right now. 1 - what if Miller is suspended. That story came and went and now there is a chance no suspension comes, but if it is the first four games it could be OK, but what if it is only resolved later in the season? and 2 - what if Decker or Thomas goes down. Both stayed remarkably healthy in 2012, and while Welker is a great insurance policy to a potential injury, they are best as a trio. Those aren't really huge problems (save for Miller, if he misses, say the New England game), but for a team that on paper is easily the best in the AFC, those little things can derail a potentially dominant team.


AFC Wild Card Round

(6) Chargers defeat (3) Texans  24-21
(5) Bengals defeat (4) Patriots  27-20


AFC Divisional Round

(1) Broncos defeat (6) Chargers  38-17
(2) Steelers defeat (5) Bengals  23-17


AFC Championship Game

(1) Broncos defeat (2) Steelers  24-16


Super Bowl XLVIII

(A1) Broncos defeat (N1) Giants  31-19

NFL 2013: NFC preview

NFC East

4.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  4-12

Lost: (LB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike Patterson, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (DT) Derek Landri, (DT) Cullen Jenkins

Gained: (CB) Cary Williams, (S) Kenny Phillips, (OLB) Connor Barwin, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (RB) Felix Jones

There is a lot of hype around the Eagles, mainly centering around the fact that Chip Kelly has come on board. Personally, I don't really understand the ridiculous amount of hype and optimism surrounding this move. Chip Kelly is famous for his up-tempo offense, but that offense has struggled against good defenses over the years, like in the 2010 National Title Game against Auburn, or their loss last year to Stanford. We've never seen any of the 'offensive genius' college head coaches succeed in the NFL yet. I'm going with the safer bet that he won't. The team lost a lot of defensive talent, and while Connor Barwin is a nice picup, I don't trust the decision to switch to the 3-4. A lot of their players will be misplaced in that defense. Finally, their offense is really lacking talent in many areas. Who are their dependable receivers? Who are their top lineman? Most importantly, what is the QB plan if (and more realistically, when) Vick goes down? Too many questions in a tough division.


3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  6-10

Lost: (DT) Victor Butler, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (RB) Felix Jones, (DE) Marcus Spears, (ILB) Dan Conner, (S) Gerald Sesabaugh

Gained: (S) Will Allen, (OLB) Justin Durant

Tony Romo quietly had a very good season in 2012, with some good clutch 4th quarter performances. Of course, his last pass was a bad pick against the Redskins which cost the Cowboys the chance of tying that play-in Week 17 game. While their offense should still be good with a close to dominant Dez Bryant and a better o-line than it has been in years, the reason I don't like the Cowboys is simply what they are doing to that defense. They had one trump card on defense, which was Demarcus Ware. Well, with a switch to a Tampa-2 type defense, coordinated by an ancient Monte Kiffin, might limit Ware. It might limit a lot of people on that defense. Sean Lee could thrive if he stays healthy, but going to a Tampa-2 from whatever Rob Ryan was attempting to do is quite a change, and I don't think it works.


2.) Washington Redskins  =  7-9

Lost: No One of Note

Gained: (WR) Devery Henderson, (DE) Daryl Tapp, (CB) E.J. Biggers

So, the Redskins are bringing back essentially everyone from their dream 10-6 season which ended with seven straight wins before their Wild Card loss to Seattle. Of course, the biggest impact to the Redskins season could be what happened during that game, when Robert Griffin III completely tore his ACL. RGIII's rehab is going well, but with a player like him, who's running ability makes that offense work, a reconstructed knee is a big problem. So is the fact that defenses just have to play the pistol/read-option better this year than they did last (a common theme for a few of my preseason predictions). They have the pieces around RGIII, but they probably overachieved to 10-6 a year ago, taking advantage of a injury plagued Giants team and some fortunate wins to steal the division. The defense is decent, but there's age. If Brian Orakpo comes back healthy, that pass rush should get better, but their secondary is still problematic. Overall, I'm down on the Redskins. Of course, I picked them to lose six of their seven games during that season ending win streak.


1.) New York Giants  =  12-4  (1-Seed)

Lost: (DT) Chris Canty, (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) Kenny Phillips, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OLB) Michael Boley, (ILB) Chase Blackburn

Gained: (DT) Cullen Jenkins, (ILB) Dan Conner, (WR) Louis Murphy, (DT) Mike Patterson, (OLB) Aaron Curry, (S) Ryan Mundy

Yeah, I'm buying into them again. I don't know why I keep doing this. I picked them to go 13-3 in 2010, 11-5 in 2011 (with losing the NFC Title Game, so at least I saw a nice playoff run) and 12-4 last year. All three were wrong. Only the 2011 pick came close. Still, I like this team once again. Nicks and Cruz can't possibly be as injured again. I love the addition of Brandon Myers at TE. I love the addition of Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson to that D-Line, which should get bounce back seasons from Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants always look good on paper, and end up disappointing with a 2nd half swoon. With their late season schedule (vs.GB, @WAS, @SD, vs.SEA) in a five week span late, it could happen, but once again I'll say it won't.


NFC North

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-11

Lost: (CB) Antoine Winfield, (WR) Michael Jenkins, (WR) Percy Harvin, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley

Gained: (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (QB) Matt Cassel, (G) Seth Olsen

The Vikings had a great draft at least right now. The Vikings also have Adrian Peterson, who is a man amongst little children at the running back position. But they really had a tough offseason, losing their only good outside weapon in Harvin, a corner who had a great year in Winfield, and they didn't really get better in free agency. Another problem is they still have Christian Ponder. Of course, he could get better, but the pieces around him aren't really helping that cause. Once again, they still have Adrian Peterson, but people who rush for 2,000 years generally don't approach that number the following season, and remember that during his historically good 8 game stretch late in the season, the Vikings went just 4-4. Combine a tough division and you get a fall-back season, especially with a defense that depends on aging stars like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams.


3.) Chicago Bears  =  7-9

Lost: (ILB) Brian Urlacher, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (DE) Israel Idonije, (OLB) Nick Roach, (TE) Matt Spaeth, (G) Chilo Rachal, (TE) Kellen Davis

Gained: (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (OLB) James Anderson, (S) Tom Zbikowski, (G) Eben Britton, (G) Matt Slauson, (DT) Andre Fluellen

They lost a lot of people, but they replaced a lot of them adequately. However, what they didn't replace was losing Lovie Smith, a firing that I thought was totally reactionary and hasty. That defense was special for most of the 2012 season, and I fear a massive step back. It is already hard for them to repeat the defensive scoring production they got last season, and a lot of their players are older. As for the offense, they should have the best o-line they've had since getting Cutler, and I was a fan of Marc Trestman's offense with Rich Gannon in Oakland, but Gannon's dink-and-dunk West Coast offense isn't an ideal fit for Cutler. The division doesn't help any, and without their old coach and old leader (Urlacher) I think the Bears, instead of starting strong and disappointing late, will just disappoint.


2.) Detroit Lions  =  10-6  (5)

Lost: (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Kyle Vanden Bosch, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Justin Durant, (CB) Drayton Florence, (OT) Jeff Backus, (K) Jason Hanson

Gained: (RB) Reggie Bush, (G) Jake Scott, (DE) Israel Idonije, (DT) Jason Jones, (S) Glover Quin

This is probably my first "Huh?" pick, predicting a Lions team that went 4-12 in 2012 to make the playoffs. There are a lot of signs that the Lions should do better. First, they were far better than a 4-12 team, as they started 4-4, then lost their last eight. Five of those eight losses came after the Lions had fourth quarter leads, which probably won't happen again. The Lions lost some key veteran players, but I like the additions of Idonije and Jones in a Jim Schwartz defense. I love the move to get Reggie Bush, giving Stafford a reliable checkdown weapon, and Glover Quin should help that back end be anything but awful. Calvin Johnson is still Calvin Johnson and at the end of the day, that team was and still is more talented than 4-12. 2012 was a year when everything went wrong, this year I think some of it goes right.


1.) Green Bay Packers  =  12-4  (2)

Lost: (WR) Greg Jennings, (S) Charles Woodson, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (OLB) Erik Walden, (WR) Donald Driver

Gained: No one, like always.

The Packers got another stellar season from Aaron Rodgers, a breakout season from Randall Cobb, a bounceback season from Clay Matthews, and somehow lost four more games in 2012 than they did the year before. At some point, Aaron Rodgers will be simply great instead of inhuman, and losing Greg Jennings could hurt that team, but I liked the draft picks of Eddie Lacy and Anthony Franklin. Of course, what makes a run game work even more is good lineman, which they don't really have. Their defense has good young players, and I think will improve even more. Combine a better defense (I really like Cam Heyward at CB) and an offense that shouldn't get too much worse, and you get a team that will do what the Packers should do every year: go around 12-4, and compete for a one-seed and the Super Bowl.


NFC South

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-11

Lost: (OT) Jeremy Trueblood, (WR) Arrelious Benn, (DE) Michael Bennett, (CB) E.J. Biggers, (CB) Ronde Barber

Gained: (S) Dashon Goldson, (DT) Derek Landri, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (CB) Darrelle Revis, (WR) Kevin Ogletree

The Buccaneers had a nice offseason. They nabbed the NFL's best corner (who has to be healthy, but that is a questionmark), a good, solid safety in Goldson, and another nice weapon for Josh Freeman in Ogletree. Of course, that last name is the issue. Josh Freeman. After a great 2010 season, we've seen two straight subpar years. Freeman and Vincent Jackson had a nice connection, but Freeman was mostly garbage throwing to anyone else late last season. Freeman hasn't improved at all over the last few years, and at some point you reach a time when it is clear he just won't at all. That defense still has major holes that weren't really filled at linebacker (outside of Lavonte David) and lineman (outside of Gerald McCoy), and if Revis isn't what Revis was pre-ACL injury, that secondary is once again a mess. It will be interesting if they do fail to compete in 2013 if Schiano is given the quick pass he was given after a disappointing season in 2012.


3.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-8

Lost: (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (RB) Chris Ivory

Gained: (DE) Victor Butler, (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OT) Jason Smith, (S) Jim Leohnard

There are two schools of thought around the Saints. The first is that we should write off 2012 due to Payton's bounty-gate absence and the Saints will be in 2013 what they were in 2011. The other is that 2012 Saints showed flaws that haven't gone away and flaws that the return of Sean Payton can't absorb away. I'm in the latter camp. We have seen a Sean Payton led Saints team miss the playoffs. In fact, we've seen it twice. The Saints arguably had more talent in those seasons than they have now. Drew Brees ended up with another monstrous season statistically, but he threw a lot of bad picks, something that he does when he gets pressured and doesn't have a reliable run game. Well, with Carl Nicks still not replaced and his previous starting center and left tackle missing, and without any new solution to the ills of the run game, that could easily repeat itself in 2013. Then there is getting Rob Ryan, who's resume is built almost solely off his last name and the 2006 Raiders defense, which had the good fortune of playing with the 2006 Raiders offense. That offense was so bad teams didn't have to try on offense against the Raiders, making their defense statistically good. All other Rob Ryan defense: statistically average to terrible.


2.) Atlanta Falcons  =  10-6  (6)

Lost: (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Chris Owens, (DE) John Abraham, (CB) Dunta Robinson, (C) Todd McClure, (CB) Brent Grimes

Gained: (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Steven Jackson

That is a pretty lopsided 'Lost vs. Gained' section. The Falcons lost six contributors, including their best (and basically only consistent) source of pass rush, two of their three best corners, two of their lineman (and two guys that had been there for Matt Ryan's entire career), and offset those losses with a pass rusher who looked one step slower in 2012 in Osi and Steven Jackson, who is still quite good but is getting up there in mileage. The Falcons had a dream season in 2012, and if not for a Matt Ryan bobbled snap or Harry Douglas' ability to stay on his feet with an open field ahead of him, they make the Super Bowl. The Falcons have had some great seasons recently, but never back to back, and I think that continues. That offense is still fearsome, but their defense was usually good enough to pull out some games when Matt Ryan was having average days. I don't think they are that good anymore.


1.) Carolina Panthers  =  10-6  (4)

Lost: (OLB) James Anderson, (CB) Chris Gamble

Gained: (CB) Drayton Florence, (WR) Tedd Ginn, (WR) Dominek Hixon, (S) Mike Mitchell, (ILB) Chase Blackburn

No team has ever repeated as NFC South champs since the creation of the division in 2012. I don't think many realize, but the Panthers ended up 2nd in the NFC last year, quietly sweeping the Saints. The Panthers ended strongly partly because the schedule got easier, but also because of improvements on either side of hte ball. Luke Kuechly's move inside unleashed a monster and that front seven dominated. Then, Cam stopped throwing picks and that offense started resembling what was a fascinating offense in 2011. Their running backs alternate disappointing and awesome games, and I think they'll have more of the latter in 2013. I like the additions on defense for a team that just needs average production from their secondary. Why not the Panthers?


NFC West

4.) Arizona Cardinals  =  5-11

Lost: (S) Adrian Wilson, (ILB) Stewart Bradley, (CB) Greg Toler, (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Adam Snyder, (DE) Quentin Groves, (CB) William Gay, (RB) Beanie Wells

Gained: (QB) Carson Palmer, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (CB) Antoine Cason, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley, (S) Yeremiah Bell

The Cardinals actually got better in my opinion at many areas. But the division as a whole did, and I thin that adds up to a static change in terms of wins. Carson Palmer, despite his regression from his peak, is staggeringly better than Ryan Lindley/John Skelton. Larry Fitzgerald might go back to being a great receiver with a competent QB. That defense has some special pieces, and while Darnell Docket finally seemed his age, Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson got better. That defense could really utilize their new additions (Bell, Shaughnessy, Brinkley) to make it an even better unit. In any other division, this team approaches .500, but the NFC West is just so tough right now.


3.) St. Louis Rams  =  8-8

Lost: (WR) Danny Amendola, (RB) Steven Jackson, (S) Craig Dahl, (S) Quintin Mikell, (WR) Brandon Gibson

Gained: (OT) Jake Long, (TE) Jared Cook

The Rams ended up 7-8-1 last season, going 4-1-1 in the division, which is staggering. They finally gave Sam Bradford some weapons in Jared Cook and drafting two of the top receivers in the draft. Adding Jake Long is nice as well, because Bradford has often had to endure some awful blocking. That defense was very good in all the things Jeff Fisher defenses are always good in, namely getting to the QB and playing press coverage. They still have the corners and rushers to do that, and if Chris Long and more so Robert Quinn take another step up, they can have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Again, in any other division, this team could make the playoffs, while in the NFC West, if they can improve slightly on that 7-8-1 record and strike. 500 for the first time since 2006, that will be a good year.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  =  10-6

Lost: (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Jason Jones

Gained: (WR) Percy Harvin, (CB) Antoine Winfield, (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Michael Bennett

Them's the advantages of having a 3rd round rookie as your QB and the contract that comes with such a draft selection. The Seahawks have built an awesome team. So, why then am I picking them to not make the playoffs and lose more games? Because I still don't truly trust Russell Wilson. I still think if he's forced to run a pass-first offense that team could struggle. I also don't trust Percy Harvin to stay healthy all year long. That pass rush also slowed late last season, and while they got some interesting pass rushers, none of them are individually great players. The other reason is they have a really tough schedule, with drawing the good NFC South and the Giants, added onto their own division.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  11-5  (3)

Lost: (S) Dashon Goldson, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (TE) Delanie Walker, (QB) Alex Smith, (WR) Tedd Ginn

Gained: (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (K) Phil Dawson

I have no idea why I like the 49ers to retain their position and not the Seahawks. In fact, I'm already reconsidering it, but I'm not going to back off my stance. There are a lot of holes to pick with the 49ers, like the rehab of Michael Crabtree, or the loss of veteran defenders like Goldson and Sopoaga, to the lack of any real backup plan if Kaepernick gets hurt, but I don't think any of it will matter too much. Their defense is still great, their offense is still able to play any type of style (they didn't even become a primarily read-option type team until the playoffs), and I trust Jim Harbaugh to get the most out of that team. The NFC West is extremely competitive, and while 11-5 would technically be a worse record, in a way, maintaining their 11 wins would be really impressive.


NFC Wild Card Round

(6) Falcons defeat (3) 49ers  23-20
(4) Panthers defeat (5) Lions  34-17


NFC Divisional Round

(1) Giants defeat (6) Falcons  24-17
(4) Panthers defeat (2) Packers  30-24


NFC Championship Game

(1) Giants defeat (4) Panthers  27-24

My Thoughts on Breaking Bad 5-12

A slower hour of Breaking Bad where there is one major plot development. Despite the fact that I pretty much predicted it, I don't know exactly how I feel about the Jesse & Hank tag team.

• Breaking Bad, somewhere between the introduction of Gus, changed from being a brilliantly plodding buddy drama to a minutely constructed frantic chase. The show has always spent hours and hours detailing the minutiae of everything from breakfast to catching a fly in a lab to cooking meth. It still does delve into the dreary minute-by-minute existence of Walt and Co.'s lives, that is now the breaks between the madness. This was the break, and because of the shortened season, probably the last break we get. There was nothing frantic in this episode. There was no cliffhanger (there was, but it wasn't close to the previous three). There was no argumentative confrontation other than a brief phone conversation. It was classic Breaking Bad, in the way that made it a classic and not the way it made it brilliant.
• I'll start last first, I have a couple of theories of what Walt could use Todd's Uncle for other than offing Jesse. The first is the other obvious target: Hank. It comes down to who Walt feels slightly more connection to: Hank or Jesse, and since I think Walt is smart enough to know that Hank is behind Jesse finally flipping on him, he might go for Hank. The other is a little more out there: himself, to fake his death. I still believe that when he comes back to Albuquerque in the flash-forward (the infamous 'Hello, Carol' scene) the city believes he is dead. That's why he's been outed. I don't know why Walt would use that card now, so it is less likely, but I just don't want Walt to use the Neo-Nazi to kill Jesse.
• As for Jesse, the most revealing part of his interrogation with Hank is that he still respects the intelligence of Walter White. Although he knows how reckless Walt is, he still respects him enough to warn Hank that Walt is smarter than Hank, and still refers to Walt as 'Mr. White'. This respect is the only reason he reacts to the brooding bald guy enough to run away and essentially give himself up. All roads are leading to Jesse getting killed. I don't want to see it, but I have to think there is about an 80% chance of it happening.
• I don't think Skylar's immersion into being as cold and calculating as Walt himself hasn't been investigated enough. Wasn't it only the first half of Season 5 where Skylar is cavalierly smoking in the house, telling Walt that she is 'waiting for the cancer to die', and just about four or five months later (in BB world), she is upset that Walt didn't kill Jesse? Seems a little bit fast, especially since three of those months were glossed over in the Season 5.1 finale. Either way, seeing Skylar coldly telling Walt to 'deal' with Jesse was about as stunning as seeing Marie telling Walt to repeatedly kill himself.
• I have to think that the various chemicals that Marie has researched plays some sort of role down the line. That was too big and too odd of a scene to be used only in isolation. Also, I was wondering what the legal position the therapist would be in if Marie admitted that Walt was a meth cook and a murderer?

I didn't really have a lot to say about this episode. It was necessary, it was really good, but just praising the inventive cinematography and visual inventiveness isn't really compelling writiing. Breaking Bad is almost over and I'm quite sad about that. Instead of talking more about Breaking Bad, I'm going to write a short piece about another show that is almost over.

Ten Italicized Predictions for the 2013 NFL Season

1.) The hegemony of the AFC Divisions is broken, but just once.

For the first time since the NFL's expansion to 32 teams (and 8 divisions), four teams in one conference repeated as division winners. The Texans, Ravens, Broncos and Patriots repeated the feat, all winning their divisions quite easily (the Texans and Bengals won by a game, but had their divisions locked up well before that). They still seem the class of their divisions given the nature of the rest of the AFC. It is amazing how much the balance of power has shifted back to the NFC, but that doesn't mean the AFC is devoid of competitors, just that it is mostly so. I still think the Patriots win the division, despite their lack of weapons for Tom Brady, the Texans win their division, despite the fact that I think the Colts won't drop off to far, and the Broncos win their division, despite Von Miller's suspension. The one that I think falls off is the Ravens. I already didn't like their offense after losing Anquan Boldin and now with Dennis Pitta out for the year I like them even less. Who is replacing them as AFC North Champions? For me, it isn't the team that made the playoffs out of the division (The Bengals - who I think get a wild card, again), but it is the AFC preeminent sleeping giant, the...


2.) The Steelers Replenish in the most Steelers way possible

Steelers. After missing the playoffs going 8-8 and having merely an above average defense for the first time since 2003, there are legitimate concerns in Pittsburgh right now. I personally don't buy any of them. Ben Roethlisberger is still a really, really good QB, and if he doesn't get hurt at the most inopportune time, the Steelers likely make the playoffs in 2012. The Steelers wideout factory is the most underrated personnel pipeline in the NFL, and I like Markus Wheaton in that role. Of course, why I really like the Steelers is their more vaunted defense pipeline. The old guys are out and the new guys are in, and to me, more of the Steelers new defensive players will than not. I really like Anthony McClendon taking over the NT role, and I like the Hood and Heyward combination. Steelers defenisve players need time to learn and perfect that system and I think they have by now. The steelers have missed the playoffs in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and now 2012. What did they do in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010? Go 13-3, 15-1, 10-6 and 12-4, making a Super Bowl and losing two AFC Championship Games. I think that is the more likely outcome than another season of missing the playoffs.


3.) Like a Season of 'The Wire' the penultimate Week is the most exciting

The Wire was famous for having their most dramatic, memorable episodes be the penultimate ones in each season (deaths of Wallace, Frank, Stringer, Bodie all came in the 2nd to last episode). The NFL is going for that with an absolutely loaded Week 16 slate. There's Denver @ Houston at 1PM (all times tentative), with potential huge AFC Seed implications. There's Pittsburgh @ Green Bay, which, if the Steelers play as well as I expect, could be huge for seeding. There's New England @ Baltimore on Sunday Night, and then Atlanta @ San Francisco on Monday Night. That's right, the two Title Game rematches (in the opposite building) on primetime in Week 16. I really say that all of those games will have playoff implications. Well done, NFL.


4.) College Coaches get Screwed

The NFL is imbued with college coaches right now, as the success of Jim Harbaugh and to a lesser extent, Pete Carroll, have given teams the confidence to hire Doug Marrone, Greg Schiano and Chip Kelly. For years, college coaches failed in the NFL. The last three to do so were Bobby Petrino, who bolted in less than a year, Nick Saban, who waited until year two to bolt, and Steve Spurrier, who failed in two years in Washington. That list contained a Bill Belichick protege who ran a disciplined team, and two coaches who ran gimmicky fast-paced offenses. All failed. Guess what the trio of Marrone, Schiano and Chip Kelly contain: a Bill Belichick disciple and two coaches who ran gimmick offenses. I think all fail. Marrone will probably make it past this year just because it is the first year on the job, but Schiano and Kelly, I think, are in for another rough reminder that the NFL ain't college. Schiano's team started out good last year but crashed and burned embarrasingly, with a five game losing streak that included getting shut out by the worst defense in the NFL (a 41-0 loss to the Saints) and a fifteen point loss at home to the Rams. I still don't like that team. Chip Kelly's offense only works if you can get first downs, as if you cant you are just punting back in 90 seconds of game time and putting a terrible defense back on the field, which I think they will be doing, a lot. As for Marrone, again, that team is a year or two away at best. Coaches that are successful in college just aren't in the pros. Ask Nick Saban, builder of an NCAA dynasty and failure as a NFL coach.


5.) Sean Payton's return to New Orleans won't be too Sweet

The Saints dropped from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012 as Sean Payton missed the season. Without Payton, Drew Brees turned into an inaccurate (for Brees), pick-throwing machine. The general consensus is that with Payton returning, Brees will fix all those problems, the offense will resemble the robotic brilliance that they had in 2011 and all of the Saints problems will be solved. I say bunk. First, there were bigger problems with the Saints offense in 2012 than just not having Payton. The loss of Carl Nicks really hurt that run game, and Drew Brees, more than the other top-flight QBs, needs a run game to be ultra-successful. When he doesn't have a consistent run game, he starts forcing balls and becomes pick happy. This was evident last year, as it was in 2010, when Brees threw 22 picks. The lack of weapons is meaningful as well. The bigger problem, though, is their defense. Steve Spagnuolo was a big mismatch for their talent, but Rob Ryan is, while not a mismatch, a totally overrated defensive coordinator. His defenses never lived up to his hype in Dallas or even before that in Cleveland. He doesn't have many talented players at all on that defenses, and I can't see his schemes really working there. I predict another season of hovering around .500 for the Saints, a team that wasn't all that consistent in making the playoffs with Payton either.


6.) The Broncos, with all their problems, still get the #1 seed

The Broncos had a really good offseason, save for the fax-machine snafu. I liked all of their signings, like Wes Welker, Louis Vasquez to play LG, or Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie to play Corner, or Terrance Knighton. Even Shaun Phillips as the emergency replacement signing for Dumervil was decent (I was hoping for Freeney, personally). That said, the Broncos have had a miserable preseason. Von Miller will miss the first six games. Stewart Bradley is hurt. Rodgers-Cromartie, Bailey and Welker all got dinged up (all are expected back for Week 1). Still, other than Miller who is definitely missing six games, all these problems should sort themselves out. The fact remains that this is still the most talented team Peyton Manning has played for since the 2006 Colts. Losing Dumervil hurts, but he's probably been overrated by the media now that he is gone. The key loss is Miller, but three of Miller's six games missed are gimmes anyway (OAK, JAX, PHI), and while the other three are tough, the worst I see the Broncos doing with Miller out is 4-2. Their schedule is quite easy at the back end, and outside of showdowns with Houston and New England on the road, all remaining games seem like wins. Peyton Manning has been on less talented teams and still gone 12-4 (2003, 2008), 13-3 (2007), or even 14-2 (2009). I'm not worried. What I am worried about is Rahim Moore not knowing what 'safety' means come January.


7.) The Big Cats Come Back

I already said that I think the Bengals make it back to the playoffs, so this is about the other two cat-based NFL teams, the Lions and Panthers. The Lions, like most teams that make a huge jump one year, fell back. Of course, no one envisioned them falling back to 4-12, but they played more like a 6-10 or 7-9 team. They lost five consecutive games where they were tied or in the lead in the 4th quarter. That type of bad luck doesn't happen again. I love their defensive line, and I think they, together, have a monster, monster season. The secondary is terrible, but they can win enough 30-24 type games. I love the addition of Reggie Bush to play the 'Reggie Bush' role in that offense, giving Matthew Stafford a nice move-the-chains option. I think they'll be the big sleeper that makes the playoffs. On the other side is the Panthers, the team that was hyped up coming into 2012 after a 6-10 record. They did get better, going 7-9 and playing more sustainably. They were an underwhelming 7-9, another team that lost a lot of close games. That defense is ready to be really good. They also have problems in the secondary, but their front seven is probably a Top-10 unit. Their offense is still quite good at times and I can't imagine DeAngelo and J-Stew having seasons that bad again. Surprise teams happen each year, and I think they both crash the playoffs party, maybe against each other.


8.) One of these under-the-radar teams in the AFC makes the playoffs (Jets, Colts, Chargers)

I did a similar prediction last year, saying either that one of these three teams would make the playoffs and the Colts will. They are all secondary teams in the three AFC Divisions with clear 'most talented teams' at the top. The Jets and Chargers are being overlooked (with some reason) for sexier sleeper wild card picks in the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Dolphins are talented, but I think Ryan Tannehill's rookie season has been wildly overrated. As for the Chiefs, I have never seen a team that was a trendy wild card pick one year be again a trendy wild card pick the next year when in the year in between they play putridly. Honestly, people were touting the Chiefs as a sleeper Wild Card in 2012, and they proceeded to go 2-14 with everyone healthy. As for the Jets, Colts and Chargers. They all have major weaknesses. With the Jets it is offense, with teh Colts it is defense adn with the Chargers it is rampant mediocrity splayed across that lineup. That said, the positives are there too. The Jets have the most talented defense on paper that they've had since 2010, and Mark Sanchez cannot possibly be worse than he was in 2012. The Colts still have a very good offense, and I expect big things from their weaponry outside this year. The Chargers have an easy schedule and I expect a bounceback Philip Rivers season. For this to be right, only one of the three have to be correct. I like my odds.


9.) The Pistol is Figured Out (to a degree)

First of all, I should say that the pistol was used far less than most people believe. Only a handful of teams even had it as any substantial portion of their offense. The read-option was more prevalent. I'm bundling them together here. Since the QB is actively involved, I think the pistol/read-option won't be as solvable as the Wildcat was, but I think defensive coordinators will pretty much solve it. To me, the key is just make the QB hand it off and play it as a normal run play. Obviously, it isn't that simple, but there are defenses in college that can play it well. The other is injuries. We've already seen RGIII get hurt once. They will pile up. My other solution if I was a coordinator would be to tell my defense to hit the QB every time they do a read-option. Force the offenses hand by repeatedly smashing the QB. Anyway, Kaepernick, Newton, RGIII and Wilson are good enough passers to make it last to some degree, but I don't think this is a long term change in the way the NFL works.


10.) The Great NFC West Race becomes more muddled than Great

49ers and Seahawks. That's what the NFC West should come to, and if you listen to many people, it seems like that is what the NFL in total will come down to. They are seen as the two most talented teams in the NFL. Personally, I think they are both quite good teams, but I think both take a step back. Some of it boils down to my 9th prediction about the read-option beign less prevalent. The other is that while talented, they have holes. The 49ers are really lacking good outside weapons. Crabtree is injured, Manningham is injured again. They are depending on some really underwhelming receivers at this point, and an aging Anquan Boldin who was doing nothing until a mini-rennaissance in the playoffs. For the Seahawks, their pass rush is really overrated, and their o-line is merely good. The Seahawks have more talent, but also a larger propensity to play sloppy and slow in away games. Why I think it becomes muddled is that the division also has a good team in St. Louis and a merely slightly below average one in Arizona. I think the Cardinals offense does a lot better with Palmer, as he's a monumental upgrade from Lindley/Skelton. Their defense is still really good. You know who else has a really good defense? St. Louis. They're another team perfectly built to hang with Seattle and San Francisco (as they did, going 2-1-1 against them last year). I can easily see Arizona and St. Louis going a combined 15-17, which doesn't leave a lot of room for the 49ers and Seahawks to both go 11-5+. In the end, Seattle and San Francisco are still probably the two best teams in that division, but I wouldn't expect the NFC's #1 seed to be an NFC West team.

My Thoughts on Breaking Bad 5-11

Confessions is the title of the episode, but the episode was really about a bunch of lies and the only real confession happened by chance. Jesse finds out about one of the two big horrors that Walt has committed to people Jesse loved, and I feel like that sets this whole thing in motion.

• Seeing Hank and Marie (who looks great this season, by the way, probably because she has worn colors that aren't purple) stare silently watching Walt's face lying at them, calling Hank out and basically screwing Hank forever was great, but their dinner scene with Walt and Skylar was about as brilliant a scene the show has ever done. There are so many relationships and connections there. First, is Skylar and Marie, who after all are sisters and have been shown to be close. What do they think that one of their husbands has basically been the cause of everything wrong with the other one's husband? Then comes Walt and Hank, who obviously had that confrontation earlier, but the most interesting was the other two, with Hank trying to ply information from Skylar and then the best moment, where Marie repeatedly, calmly tells Walt to kill himself. Unbelievable scene. 
• Walt and Jesse is the big takeaway from this episode, though they only shared one (brilliant) scene together. The first scene reminded me so much of Hank's first interrogation of Tio Salamanca, who spelled out, in his excruciating ringing-the-bell way, 'Fuck You' to Hank. Here, Jesse answers 'Eat Me' to Hank. Both hate the man that Hank is trying to make them flip on, but they hate Hank more. For Tio, it was just the normal cartel behavior of never working with the police. For Jesse it is because Hank nearly killed Jesse after finding out that he had some part in tricking Hank into thinking Marie got into an accident. Jesse showed, I think, some level of respect to Walt. He didn't spill on Walt out of some form of affection, and not solely because he feared for himself.
• It would be poignant if Walt and Jesse's hug is the last true moment they share on scene together. Since Walt spent almost all of that episode lying to people, it is hard to read what exactly the hug meant, but I do think it came out of affection for Jesse. Sure, Walt wants Jesse gone because then Hank can't turn him, but he probably does want Jesse gone for his own good as well. Walt knows that Jesse has never overcome the death and destruction they've caused and a trip to Alaska could help Jesse out. Of course, Jesse calls him out (in an amazing bit of acting by Aaron Paul, who plays the vulnerable side of Jesse so damn well), and Walt consoles him. Again, it is really hard to read exactly what Walt is doing there, but if it is the last semi-affectionate moment between those two, it was quite nice.
• I mentioned Walt potentially taking Saul's identity-change-guy connection to fake his death a while ago, and I think the idea being brought up, even if for Jesse, sets it in motion for Walt to use it later. I still think at some point Walt fakes his death, as the reaction from 'Carol' is one of 'I thought you were dead?!' and not 'I can't believe I'm seeing a drug kingpin', but we'll wait and see.
• The one knock I have with the episode is the same one I have had with Breaking Bad overall. For such an exacting, calculating show, they've stretched the limits of realism more and more as the show has gone on. Because of this, Jesse immediately connecting the dots when he realized Huell lifted the pot to Walt poisoning Brock is quick and hard to believe, but not out of line with what the show has done. But then I thought, I immediately made the connection. The initial storyling with Huell lifting the ricin, and Jesse realizing it (but then leaving it when he found the fake ricin in the roomba) was two years ago in real time and far less in Breaking Bad show time. If I could connect the dots, I'm sure Jesse could too.
• I love the episode ending with Jesse throwing gasoline around the White home. Since the home is still standing in the flash-forward, we now that Jesse's plan doesn't succeed. Some may say that knowing that cheapens the ending of the episode, but I argue the opposite. There are still so many answers to the question of: Who stops Jesse? Here are my potential answers:
• Walt: We've already seeing him leaving the car wash with a gun, and the easy assumption is that he is heading home. Of course, Jesse, at this moment, would probably kill Walt, so I doubt it is him.
• Walt Jr.: he might be at home. Jesse has been seen to love kids, and I doubt he would follow through on his plan if Walt Jr. is in the house. He might force Jr. to leave, but I doubt it is Walt Jr. either.
• Hank: this is the option that makes the most sense. Hank was recently tailing Jesse, and we don't know if he actually pulled his guys off of Jesse soon enough. Of course, Jesse hates Walt right now more than ever, and is perfectly vulnerable to agree with Hank and flip on Walt. I think Hank comes to the house and Hank and Jesse put aside their differences for what each sees as the greater good.

Can't wait for next week.