Hall of Blame

Quick disclaimer: Yes, I realize that title is corny, and probably been used, but who cares. I'm not exactly a professional writer here.

So, today no one was elected to the Hall of Fame. That in a vacuum isn't unprecedented. It last happened in 1996. In most years there are only one or two guys elected. However, this isn't a vacuum. This year was different, because this year was the first time that the "Steroid Era" guys were entering the ballot, the first time the BBWAA, or the baseball fans that spend way too long analyzing and debating HOF cases, had to debate the merits of guys that took steroids. This was the first year that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and to a lesser extent Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, were on the ballot. And, instead of having a normal, adult discourse, debating the merits of shunning or shedding light on a whole era of the sports history, what did the BBWAA do? They decided to lose their grasp on what their responsibility is, they decided to make statements on morality, they decided to cheapen the HOF, and they decided to smear everybody that played in an era of baseball as ancillary participant in the steroid era.

Honestly, no one should be surprised, because the writing was on the wall two years ago. In the 2011 HOF voting, Jeff Bagwell was given barely 40% of the vote. He has never once been connected to steroids. He has never once been hinted as a steroid user. He has insane stats (lifetime .400 OBP, 450 homers, great defense, decent speed, played his whole career for one team). Maybe he wasn't deserving of a first-time induction, but he was definitely deserving of far more than 40% of the vote. It was the HOF's first steroid-related embarrassment. After the vote was made public, multiple voters explained that they did not vote for Bagwell because he could have taken steroids. Basically, despite there not being a shred of evidence and no one ever intimating him in any steroid talk, Bagwell was being blackballed from the Hall because he fit the profile of a steroid user, in that he had big muscles, hit a bunch of home runs... and that is about it. Oh yeah, and he was teammates with Ken Caminiti (of course, Derek Jeter was teammates with multiple known steroid guys, I doubt that gets mentioned when he becomes eligible). When writers began admitting that they weren't voting for someone because they might have taken steroids despite zero evidence to even implicate him, we all should have realized the process was too far gone.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens both didn't get 40% of the vote in their 1st Year on the ballot. Mark McGwire got about 12.5% (he's been on the ballot before). Sammy Sosa got less than 10%. Bonds and Clemens might get in one day, but that isn't the point. The jury has spoken, and they are essentially saying that the Hall of Fame will not remain to be a museum of the history of baseball. What is the Hall of Fame without the guy who hit more home runs than anyone, and dominated the game in a way no one has since Babe Ruth? What is the Hall of Fame with a 350 game winner who won 7 Cy Young Awards? Yes, they took steroids. Yes, they knowingly cheated, but so did a ton of other people. So did players in the old days who threw the spitball, who used cork bats. There are cheaters all throughout the Hall of Fame. There are open racists, and adulterers, and drunks, and addicts. The Hall of Fame has never been about the integrity of the man, just the performance, at least until the writer's precious records came under fire.

Look, even I feel some sadness that the best players of the last 25 years were juicing. But guys like Barry Bonds was so good, that even if you reduce his numbers in his ridiculous 2001-2004 stretch by 25%, he's a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Same with Clemens. These guys were the best guys of their era. Clemens was pitching to other steroid users. Bonds was launching Home Runs off of steroid-using pitchers. Steroids were rampant around the league, and the writers knew about it. The owners knew about it. The commissioner knew about it. Everyone turned a blind eye during the chase of 1998 because if what it meant for the game, but when the chase in 1998 was over, and both eclipsed them in 1999 and then Bonds came in 2001, it wasn't so great for the game anymore, and the writers changed course. The problem here isn't the players, but the writers.

But the problem doesn't stop at just not letting guys like Bonds, Clemens and McGwire in. It is hard to argue with people who to their core feel that those guys' steroid use ruined the game, that it was cheating at a level that was unforgivable. Where the problem really starts to escalate was those using the HOF ballot to make a statement. Multiple people sent in blank ballots (despite the presence of candidates that no one thinks used roids), and justified it with a "I want to make a statement" excuse. Some people sent in a ballot with just one name, and one unqualified name (Dale Murphy) at that. Some people used their ballot, a simple vote that they turned into some god-like power, to justify some ridiculous stance they had. It is sad, really, that the Hall of Fame has turned into some large morality play, where everyone connected to the steroid era is getting blamed for an era that writers, commisioners, and owners knew about as well. It is sad that it has come to this. I've never visited Cooperstown before, but if Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell, and most ridiculously Craig Biggio (who if he used steroids, was using the wrong ones) don't get in, I never will.

2012 NFL Playoffs: Wild-Card Review

These recaps are going the way of my recaps in the 2009 Postseason (so Jan-Feb 2010).


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Texans (-4.5)  over  Bengals  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)
Vikings (+7.5)  over  Packers  (WRONG  =  1-1  =  -1000)
Ravens (-7)  over  Colts  (CORRECT  =  2-1  =  +1000)
Seahawks (-2.5*)  over  Redskins  (CORRECT  =  3-1  =  +1000)

Wild Card Weekend: 3-1  (+2000)

Playoffs: 3-1  (+2000)


Player of the Week - Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL)

Anquan Boldin hasn't been the dynamic, bruising #1 receiver for Baltimore like he was in Arizona, but he was amazing in the Wild Card game. He absolutely dominated Cassius Vaughn and Darius Butler (granted, not exactly Hayes and Haynes). Five catches in the 2nd Half for 145 yards and a brilliant TD catch, grabbing the ball despite Darius Butler playing it perfectly. He had arguably the biggest play of the game, the first 50 yard catch and 3rd down when the Ravens were leading just 10-6. Anquan Boldin needs to be big next week if they have any chance in Denver, and he showed just how well the Ravens can move the ball when he is just that.

Runner-Up: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA) (Great game on the ground, plus his fumble elongated the interesting portion of that game, and finally, he had the most bad-ass fumble recovery I have ever seen, a welcome Eff-You to all the people who say "never try to pick up a fumble, just fall on it")


Goat of the Week - Mike Shanahan (Coach - WAS)

I'm giving it to Shanny partly because there aren't many great QBs. I don't want to pin the 'goat' label on Joe Webb (because he was totally unqualified for that game in that position). Anyway, the whole RGIII injury issue is dominating the conversation after Wild-Card weekend and for good reason. RGII was noticeably hobbling. He was noticeably not pushing up on his throws, sailing a bunch of them. Maybe RGIII wasn't 'hurt' enough to pull him, but in his condition, he couldn't perform in that offense. Then, after leaving Griffin in, he continued to call read option plays when Griffin couldn't run at all. What clinched Shanahan's spot for me, though, is that his justification was essentially, and I paraphrase, "RGIII told me he wasn't injured", which is a terrible admittance for the coach. The head coach is supposed to protect the players from themselves. What if this was a concussion, would Shanahan just accept any player lying about a concussion?

Runner-Up: Jermaine Gresham (TE-CIN) (I don't think the Bengals win anyway, but those early drops by Gresham, when the Texans weren't firing yet, really killed their chances. Again, not a big weekend for goats, as the losing teams were all the lesser teams, but Gresham had a fine season but a terrible wild-card game)


Surprise of the Week - Houston's Defensive Resurgence

The Texans defense was among the best units in the NFL through 10 games. Then Jonathan Joseph and Brooks Reed got hurt, and the defense went to hell for a bit. Well, for one week at least, it was back. JJ Watt was, of course, great, with a sack, three more tackles and a pass defense. Another monster performance for him. What was great to see, though, was the return of their coverage safeties, as Daniel Manning and, especially, Glover Quin, were great in coverage against Gresham and the secondary receivers. Jonathan Joseph finally looked like the Joseph that was the shut-down corner early in the season. Brooks Reed came back, and he and Barwin showed a rush that was missing from anyone not named Watt over the 2nd half of the season. They need all these things and more to win in New England, but if they can do it, then we might have a game on our hands next week.

Runner-Up: Paul Kruger (OLB-BAL) (Terrell Suggs is still playing hurt and noticeably less effective, but Kruger has really picked up the slack. He has been on fire the last few weeks, and is the one Ravens defender other than Ngata that scares me right now. He was a beast against an admittedly terrible o-line)


Disappointment of the Week - The Joe Webb Experiment

I'm not blaming Joe Webb. He hadn't thrown a pass all season and was tossed out into Lambeau Field in a playoff game in sub-freezing temperatures. But, I remember seeing Joe Webb against Minnesota two years ago against a pretty good defense in Philadelphia. I remember him coming in against Detroit last season (another playoff team) and lead a near-comeback. I saw that first drive where Joe Webb somehow escaped four Packers and ran for 20 yards, and Peterson was running right through the Packers. But then Joe Webb was made to throw, and it was all over. I credit NBC for really trying before the game to sell Joe Webb as a viable QB, that the switch from Ponder to Webb wouldn't be that impactful. Well, I bought into it as well. I was completely wrong. The only reason why I still have a ton of questions about the Packers defensively was that they just had the luxury of playing someone with Tebow's accuracy at QB. This season has been a year of less-than-fulfilling primetime games, and because of Joe Webb's cameo, we just had another one.

Runner-Up: Underdogs (All four favorites won, and not only won but covered. I track betting trends in the playoffs - an idea based on timing of games and performance by home teams and favorites - and this was the first time in the new playoff format since 2002, in a four-game weekend where all four favorites covered. Oddly, last week had three favorites cover in the Wild-Card round, until Denver ended things)


Team Performance of the Week - Houston's O-Line

I might be the only person on earth who was actually encouraged by Houston's performance in that game, giving them two of my three positive awards, but that is what you get for a weekend where most things went according to plan. Anyway, yes the Texans o-line opened up nice holes for Arian Foster all game, but more surprisingly, they dominated the Bengals pass rush. Geno Atkins was a non-factor, as were Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Domata Peko, and the rest of that good Cincy front. The gave Schaub a ton of time on most plays. Again, this is something they have to do just as well next week to have a chance, but they just dominated the trenches against the Bengals. Many people were wondering if the Bengals D-Line could win their matchup and swing the game, and the answer was a resounding no. Even Derek Newton, who has been really up-and-down this year, had a solid game.

Runner-Up: The Seahawks Offense (The Seahawks trailed that game 14-0, let's not forget. It was the most they have trailed all season long, and this was on the road (their kryptonite), against a jacked up defense that matched up well against them. The Seahawks offense then completed one crazy first down to Zach Miller, and they were off. Russell Wilson was really calm and confident in his reads, running well and making some great throws. Marshawn Lynch had a nice game outside of the fumble. Just a nice performance for a team that responded well to serious adversity)
 

Team Laydown of the Week - Colts' Catching Ability

I guess at some point I have to talk about the Colts, huh? I don't think they deserved to win that game. They didn't stop the Ravens at all (only Ray Rice's fumbles stopped the Ravens). That said, the ridiculous drops by the Colts were just maddening, to any Colts fan, anyone who bet on the Colts, or anyone who bet the over. Donnie Avery I understand because he drops balls all the time. Same with TY Hilton, who still had a fantastic rookie season. But Reggie Wayne dropping catchable balls? Dwayne Allen dropping a big catch? It was a fitting end to the game that Vick Ballard dropped what would have been a 1st down on 4th down. Andrew Luck wasn't great, but he was far better than anyone trying to catch the ball.

Runner-Up: Texans Red-Zone Offense (The red-zone performance of the Texans was pathetic. They should have scored way more than 9 points in that first half. Schaub once missed an open Andre Johnson in the end zone, and then threw a 5-yard pass on 3rd and 7 in the red zone, both leading to field goals. This is the one thing they can't do in New England, but over the last three games, the Texans have two TDs, and nine Field Goals)


Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground this Week - Can't Wait for NE @ DEN

I liken this to 2007, where everyone in the world was anticipating, and salivating at the prospect of, a Colts @ Patriots AFC Title Game, a rematch of the epic 2006 AFC Title Game and a rematch of Super Bowl 41.5, the first tight game the 16-0 Patriots had to play. Of course, Norv Turner, Philip Rivers, Billy Volek and Kenton Keith (trivia; one of those four played for the Colts) had other plans and beat the Colts 28-24. Ironically, the game more were worried about was a hot Jacksonville team going to New England. Anyway, fast-forward to this year. The Broncos and Patriots are great teams and look all but set to play in a great AFC Title Game. There are a few differences. While the Broncos are about as good as the 2007 Colts, this Patriots team is far worse than the 2007 Patriots. That said, the opponents in 2007 were better than the two opponents this week. I just think way too many people are dismissing the Ravens and Texans (who were 9-2 and 10-1 respectively a month ago), partly because they all want another Brady vs. Manning playoff game. Let's wait to breakdown that potential game if that game comes.

Runner-Up: The Falcons are vulnerable (You will hear it about a million times before this Sunday's game. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs. They were the #1 seed two years ago and lost to the 6th seeded Packers, and didn't just lose but were killed 48-21. They weren't great this year, and the Seahawks are everyone's darling. It will be interesting to see if that line - which opened at ATL by -2.5 - goes even lower during the week)


Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground this Week - All Hail the NFC!!

Remember back in October, when the NFC had the undefeated Falcons, the one-loss historically good on defense Bears, the defending champion Giants, the surprising Vikings, the sleeping-giant Packers, the dominant 49ers. Everyone was writing that the NFC was better. Part of this was that the eventual #1 & #2 seeds in the AFC started 3-3, but part of it is still true. The two best teams may be in the AFC, but the NFC is far more deep than the AFC, and that is coming into focus now. Despite one being a 11-6 team with a lot of playoff pedigree, and the other being a talented 13-4 team, both the road teams in the AFC are heavy underdogs. Over in the NFC, the road teams are a a team QBed by Aaron Rodgers, and the best team in the NFL over the 2nd half of the season. The NFC is showing is depth by giving us two great divisional games, on paper at least, instead of just teasing us with the prospect of one great Title Game, like the AFC is.

Runner-Up: Manning vs. Lewis (Truthfully, there weren't many great options, but I'll go with a personal favorite. Peyton Manning has squared off against Ray Lewis about as many times as he had Tom Brady, playing the Ravens in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and in the 2006 and 2009 playoffs. The Ravens won the first two, and the Colts won all of them since. Of course, they met earlier this year. Outside of Brady, this is the best offensive player of his era against the best defensive player of his era for the last time, and I can't wait to see the mental chessmatch one more time)


Ranking Next Week's Games

4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-6)  @  Denver Broncos (13-3)  (Sat, 4:35 - CBS)

Despite what I just wrote, I think this is the game that is the least close on paper. The Broncos are a lot better than the Ravens on offense, and better on defense. They just played four weeks ago in Baltimore and won quite easily. Peyton Manning has played great against the Ravens defense over his career. Not exactly an exciting game.


3.) Houston Texans (13-4)  @  New England Patriots (12-4)  (Sun, 4:35 - CBS)

This game is basically the same as the other AFC game, except for two points. The first is that the Texans are better than the Ravens (while the Patriots and Broncos are essentially even), and the first blowout meeting between the teams was in New England (while Denver's win was in Baltimore, making the result even worse). Either way, probably a easy win by New England anyway.


2.) Seattle Seahawks (12-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (13-3)  (Sun, 1:00 - FOX)

Now we get to some real games. There is a lot of interesting angles to go into this game. The Falcons of course have to exorcise some playoff demons, especially given the events of Divisional Weekend two years ago. Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, Tony Gonzalez and the rest have a lot to prove. On the other side, the Seahawks are a really good team playing really well right now, but they still haven't been great on the road and now get a start essentially at 10 AM PST. The 1:00 game is rarely interesting on paper, but this is a real exception.


1.) Green Bay Packers (12-5)  @  San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)  (Sat, 8:00 - FOX)

Remember that classic last year when the great offense in New Orleans went to Candlestick to play the great 49ers' defense? Well, this is basically the same. The 49ers defense gets another shot against a dynamic, but finesse passing game. There are some differences between the two, as the Packers offense isn't nearly as good as the Saints offense last year, but neither is the 49ers' defense. Also, Colin Kaepernick is in the spotlight now, and if he fails to do what Alex Smith did last year, then Jim Harbaugh will go through some adversity for the first time as a head coach of the 49ers.


Back later this week with something, just not sure what after an uninspiring weekend of playoff football.

2012 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend Picks

Here we are. 256 games down, 11 to go. BTW, I was 9-7 in my Week 17 picks. That gives me the following record for the season:

Year-to-Date: 142-107-7 (+34,600)  (56.8%)

Pretty good, huh? Especially since I got a lot of my preseason picks wrong (did get 7 of the 12 playoff teams right), meaning that I didn't have a great read on a lot of these teams. Anyway, before we get to the picks, just a quick ranking of the potential 8 different Divisional Weekend combinations.


AFC

4.) Cincinnati @ Denver & Indianapolis @ New England
3.) Baltimore @ Denver @ Houston @ New England
2.) Indianapolis @ Denver & Houston @ New England
1.) Cincinnati @ Denver & Baltimore @ New England

The last place one has the greatest chance for two blowout, while the #1 option has a blowout potentially in Cincinnati, but Baltimore generally plays New England tough. I feel like Baltimore or Indianapolis would be blown out by Denver, but the Indianapolis version has the Manning vs. The Colts angle.


NFC

4.) Minnesota @ Atlanta & Washington @ San Francisco
3.) Minnesota @ Atlanta & Seattle @ San Francisco
2.) Washington @ Atlanta & Green Bay @ San Francisco
1.) Seattle @ Atlanta & Green Bay @ San Francsico

This is easier as the definite matchups (#6 @ #1 and #3 @ #2) give us the worst matchup (Minnesota @ Atlanta) and the best (Green Bay @ San Francisc). I would rather see Seattle play in divisional weekend over Washington because I think Seattle is a more entertaining team. Seattle @ Atlanta would be a fascinating matchup, as that is the only potential divisional opponent that I think can reasonably be expected to beat Atlanta.

Anyway, let's get to the picks.

First up:

The Formula Picks 

* the formula is Team X = OFF + DEF + (QB + COACH)/3 - 1 (IF HOME)

Bengals @ Texans

Bengals = 6 + 2 + (6 + 4) / 3 = 11.333
Texans = 4 + 3 + (4 + 5) / 3 - 1 = 9

Formula Winner = Texans


Vikings @ Packers

Vikings = 6 + 5 + (6 + 6) / 3 = 15
Packers = 1 + 4 + (1 + 2) / 3 - 1 = 5.

Formula Winner = Packers


Colts @ Ravens

Colts = 5 + 6 + (5 + 6) / 3 = 13.666
Ravens = 3 + 5 + (3 + 2) / 3 - 1 = 8.666

Formula Winner = Ravens


Seahawks @ Redskins

Seahawks = 3 + 1 + (3 + 5) / 3 = 6.666
Redskins = 5 + 6 + (4 + 3) / 3 - 1 = 12.333

Formula Winner = Seahawks

(A6)  Cincinnati Bengals  (10-6)  @  (A3)  Houston Texans  (12-4)  (HOU -4.5)

State of the Teams: For the 2nd straight year, the Bengals visit the Texans to start the playoffs. Of course, the difference this time is that Matt Schaub is starting, and not TJ Yates, but the Texans won 31-10 with TJ Yates last year. The Bengals are a better team this season (a more deserving 10-6 than last year's 9-7), while the Texans are better at QB and at JJ Watt, but worse everywhere else largely. There is a lot of love for the Bengals right now, but to me, a lot of that is due more to the Texans free-fall. Of course, no one remembers that the Texans entered the playoffs last year losing their last three games. The Bengals do enter winning 7 of 8 (and the lone loss was one a last-second field goal), allowing just 12.5 ppg in those eight games. Of course, in those games, the only offense they faced that is better than the Texans offense was the Giants. The game definitely lines up as the hot Bengals vs. the free-falling Texans, but the Texans are at home, have more experience, and a healthy QB.

Matchups: The Bengals and Texans both enter with good defenses headed by great defensive lineman. The Texans have JJ Watt, the best defensive player in the league in 2012, and the Bengals bring in Geno Atkins, the best defensive tackle in the league in 2012. Which d-line has the larger impact will probably decide this game. Neither team is really that great running the ball (though the Texans still have the pedigree and reputation of a great running team), so I doubt either will have much success on the ground. The pass rush will probably decide the game. Both teams get to the QB a lot, although the Texans' pass rush isn't that great outside of Watt, as the Bengals have 51 sacks and the Texans have 44. The difference is the o-line for the Texans is far, far better in pass protection. They allowed just 28 sacks, to 46 for the Bengals, so that matchup definitely goes the way of the Texans. Matt Schaub should have more time, and even though he has been average the last quarter of the season, Andy Dalton has been barely above average all season long. His game actually dropped over the last half of the season. Dalton is more careless with the ball, is less accurate, and although he has a great receiver, AJ Green also slowed down late in the year. Their defense has been good enough to carry them, but they might need the offense to step up here.

The Pick: The Texans won with TJ Yates, so it makes sense they would win this same matchup with Matt Schaub right? I would have to think the Texans will be reenergized by the crowd, by the playoffs. They got lazy late in the year, but that is a crime that other teams have been inflicted with. The Texans were even colder last year entering the playoffs, but stepped it up in the game. The Bengals are a better team than they were a year ago, and Marvin Lewis has to win a playoff game sooner or later (0-3), but I just don't like this matchup for the Bengals. No one can really stop Andre Johnson on that team, and Watt could be huge. I have a sinking feeling about trusting the Texans again, and I would rather see Baltimore go to New England than Houston, but we will get to the ramifications of these games on next week later.

Bengals 16  Texans 23  (HOU -4.5)

(N6)  Minnesota Vikings  (10-6)  @  (N3)  Green Bay Packers  (11-5)  (GB -7.5)

State of the Teams: Division rematches in the playoffs are always tough to gauge. Rematches of Week 17 games that happen in the playoffs are also tough to gauge. Let's start with the Vikings. It is amazing that the Vikings were 8-6 entering Week 16, essentially needing two wins in a row to make the playoffs, and those games were against the (at the time) 12-2 Texans and then the 11-4 Packers. More ironically, both those teams were playing for something tangible (HFA and a 1st Round Bye), and the Vikings beat them both. Most importantly, Christian Ponder was good in both games. The Vikings enter the game pretty healthy, as Antoine Winfield is expected to play, and their run game is still the league's best. What Peterson has done in the 2nd half of the season is just incredible. The pass game still doesn't have a major target outside, but there was a nice Michael Jenkins sighting in Week 17. As for the Packers, they enter the playoffs off of a loss for the first time since 2007. The last time they were at home, they won 55-7, but overall they haven't been dominant at home this season. Rodgers will have his weapons there, but Nelson and Jennings aren't 100%. The big news is the defense, which had already improved anyway, is getting Charles Woodson back, making it about as healthy as it has been all year long.

Matchups: The Packers are undoubtedly the better team. They have a better QB, far better receivers, a better set of linebackers and a better secondary, but they don't matchup all that well with the Vikings. Clearly, they have issues stopping Peterson, who went for 212 and 199 in their two meetings this year. The 1st game was more egregious, but even in the 2nd they gave up big runs in advantageous down-and-distances. The Packers corners should be able to swallow up the receivers of the Vikings, but the Packers haven't found a good answer for Kyle Rudolph. Christian Ponder has gotten a lot of time in both games, and unless that changes, Christian Ponder might not be as bad as we think in this game. The other side is still problematic. Again, it is all about pressure and protection. Rodger was dropped 5 times in the Week 17 loss, and just twice in the Week 13 win. When the pass rush doesn't get to Rodgers and Rodgers is able to throw the ball, he has been great against Minnesota (27-35-286 in Week 13, 28-40-365 in Week 17). The run game for Green Bay has become pretty much irrelevant to discuss at this point. The Packers new lineman are terrible at pass blocking, but their run-blocking is decent. The weather could play a factor. Aaron Rodgers is not as good in cold weather (just look at last year's divisional game), and we are looking at a 19 degree kickoff with moderate wind, which helps the Vikings.

The Feeling: I think people often forget when the underdog hangs tough late in the season in a potential rematch in the playoffs. We saw this in 2007, when people just discounted the Giants chances even though they lost by three to New England in Week 17. We just saw the Packers lose to the Vikings. Yes, it was a close game, but the Packers were down 13-0 quickly, they never led, and they really did deserve to lose. Also, if Christian Ponder doesn't throw an absolutely terrible red-zone pick in the first game, the Vikings could have won that game as well. But therein lies the problem, it still is Christian Ponder. He can play well, but I have so little confidence in him it is hard to really get behind the Vikings to win this game. But the number in a divisional rematch seems high, especially when the Packers have shown no ability to stop Peterson, and limited ability to win games big.

Vikings 21  Packers 27  (MIN +7.5)

(A5)  Indianapolis Colts  (11-5)  @  (A4)  Baltimore Ravens  (10-6)  (BAL -7)

State of the Teams: The Colts have gained a lot of supporters with their "meaningless" Week 17 win. Most people still think they are pretty fraudulent (a stance quite defensible since the Colts are the first team with a negative point differential to win at least 11 games), but that was a real win. Their defense is still good at holding teams to far fewer points than you would expect, but they have had some disastrous results on the road (59 to the Patriots, 35 to the Jets). Andrew Luck had a good game in Week 17, but later in the season he was starting to look more rattled by the constant pressure he has to face. The Ravens team is a team who's offense is still very hard to contain in Baltimore, and they have a ton of experience in playoff games. Very few teams have won playoff games four straight years, which the Ravens did from 2008-2011. The Ray Lewis retirement talk might inspire the Ravens to play a little harder so Lewis wins his final home game.

Matchups: The Colts don't really match up well with any playoff caliber team (even the Texans). Their defense struggles against the run, problems that have only gotten worse since they started suiting up guys like Lawrence Guy at DT.  Their tackles are so green and soft that I could see Ray Rice destroying them. Their pass rush got better as the year went on, seemingly adjusting to the 3-4 defense (especially Freeney). The Ravens are average at protecting the passer, so I would give the advantage there to the Ravens. The Colts corners are mostly street-free agents, and haven't been able to stop other teams secondary weapons, which could make for a big game for Torrey Smith or Jacoby Jones. The Colts defense can't really stop any team, but I don't see them stopping the Ravens. On the other side, the Ravens defense played better late in the season, but oddly not that great at home for the most part. Their mix-and-match pass rush works (37 sacks), and the Colts o-line is really bad at pass protection, which could make for another game where Luck is running around all day. The Ravens secondary is not that great, especially at the corner position and Reggie Wayne could have a big game. The Colts probably won't be able to get any run game going. The Ravens also are really good at protecting the ball (16 giveaways), while the Colts are very bad and getting the ball (15 takeaways), so one of the big catalysts for upsets (turnovers) isn't all that likely. In every way, the Ravens are a better team.

My Feelings: I would love to continue to ride Chuckstrong here. The Colts have been on a magic ride all year long, starting with that memorable win over the Packers the week after Pagano's diagnosis. The Colts have had more outlandish wins than the one they are presented with right now. That said, I look to one game that gives me pause. The week after that emotional win over the Packers, the Colts went to New York to play the Jets, and were emotionally spent and lost 35-9. I could see the Colts being similarly spent and at a low this week after the emotional high of Pagano's return wears off. I also don't buy this idea that Pagano knows the Ravens defense, as that never worked for Rex Ryan in games against the Ravens. The Ravens are the team with the emotional lift right now knowing that this is almost certainly Ray Lewis's last home game, and they would want to send them out right. Add that up to their already clear advantages, and it is pretty easy.

Colts 17  Ravens 30  (BAL -7)

(N5)  Seattle Seahawks  (11-5)  @  (N4)  Washington Redskins  (10-6)  (SEA -3)

State of the Teams: These teams enter the game in similar states. Both of them have rookie QBs who run some form of the read-option offense, and both of their rookie QBs have expanded their plays throughout the year and are now operating fully functional offenses. Both teams are entering the playoffs off long winning streaks, with the Seahawks entering on a 5-game win streak after a 6-5 start, and the Redskins a 7-game win streak after a 3-6 start. The Seahawks incredible 150-30 three-game run is over, and they looked a little flat against the Rams, but they have still been the NFC's best team over the last month. The Seahawks famously play great at home, and they did again (8-0), but they have struggled on the road, dropping some curious games like @DET and @MIA on the road. The franchise hasn't won a road playoff game since 1983. That's even more ancient than the history of the last Redskins' home playoff game (1999). This is a fascinating game, just the 2nd featuring two rookie QBs, and it should be a great capper to the weekend, or so everyone hopes.

Matchups: Offensively, these are strikingly similar teams. They both have QBs who run offenses where they have one or two reads and then are told to scramble, which they do well. They both have grading running backs that run well after contact. They both have a handful of receivers, none of whom is a true #1, but all talented and fit together well. The differences between these teams lie on the other side of the ball, because the Seahawks and Redskins defenses are, let's just say, not strikingly similar. Apart from being a lot better, the Seahawks defense rushes with just its front four and plays really physical bump-and-run coverage (and are getting Brandon Browner back). That type of defense should do well against Griffin, making his reads take longer and being better at keeping contain. On the other side, the Redskins defense has been admirable in their efforts to still be good after losing Brian Orakpo early in the year. To mitigate that loss, Haslett has switched to a really blitz heavy screen, which works well at times, but Russell Wilson has been great against hte blitz all year long. The matchups just aren't there for the Redskins. The one point in the Redskins favor is that the Seahawks were just average against the run this year, allowing 4.5 y/r over the course of the season, which isn't that good. The Redskins can limit the possessions of this game, which will be helped by their best-in-the-nfl ball security (just 14 giveaways).

My Feeling: I have picked against the Redskins in their last 5 games, and they won all five. They have continued to surprise me, and while I think their offense is more containable now than what it was at the beginning of their streak, the running game continues to play really well. The crowd should be excellent. I have a hard time just discounting the Seahawks performances on the road. Their one big road win this year was in Buffalo, but that game was really in Toronto. To me, the road factor and the crowd factor makes a game that isn't that close by the matchups quite a bit closer. I hate doing this for the playoffs, but I am terrified of a field goal game, so buying half the point it is.

Seahawks 23  Redskins 17  (SEA bought to -2.5)

Enjoy the Games!!

2012 NFL Playoffs: NFC Playoff Primer

6.) Minnesota Vikings  (10-6  =  379-348)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 379 ptf (14th), 348 pta (14th), 5,385 ydf (20th), 5,600 yda (16th)
= Outsiders: 2.0% team (14th), 0.3% off (15th), 3.1% def (21st), 4.7% st (5th)
= Burke's: 0.45 team (23rd), 25th off, 13th def

Offense: I like that in 2012, we have mostly weak wild-cards. It is like being back in the old NFL. Anyway, returning to the present, the Vikings aren't exactly a great team in any way, but they are good at most things. The one place they are obviously phenomenal at is running the ball. Now this is no new information here. Adrian Peterson ran for over six yards per carry over 348 carries, which is just stupid good. Peterson started out a little slow (understandable since he was coming off of ACL surgery), but starting with the 7th game of the year  (vs Arizona), and Peterson ran for 153 yards on 25 carries (6.35 y/r). Since then, he had just two games with a yards-per-rush less than 5 (and one of them was 4.95). He is just incredible. Of course, this is still a passing league, and Christian Ponder is not that good, and his receivers are about as bad. With Percy Harvin gone, they don't have their big matchup advantage at receiver, and you get guys like Michael Jenkins and Jarius Wright. The one good part about the passing game is it is low-risk and doesn't turn over the ball too much. Overall, in the playoffs you need to throw at some point, and I just don't think the Vikings can.  Rank: 6th

Defense: The Vikings defense quietly was strong for much of the season. It is still built with their defensive front. Jared Allen is still a dynamic pass rusher with 12 sacks this season, but they have some depth, as Brian Robinson took a step up, as did Eversen Griffin (both with 8+ sacks). The tackles aren't the same, but still good. The back seven is not great, however. Chad Greenway is still a great player, but he's getting a bit slower, and Jasper Brinkley and Erin Henderson are both a little green. The secondary lost Antoine Winfield last week, and it is manned by a lot of young players like Harrison Smith and AJ Jefferson. The defense has to be run through that front and especially those defensive ends. If you look at the Vikings, they had 33 sacks in the 10 wins against just 11 in their six losses. If the pass rush can get home, they can be a good defense, but if it doesn't the Vikings don't have enough behind that front to really contain anyone. Rank: 5th

QB: Just listing the fact that the Vikings' QB is one Christian Ponder should be enough to merit why I have him ranked 6th out of the playoff QBs. So, I'll talk quickly about what Ponder does well. Ponder is low risk, as he threw few interceptions for what is perceived to be such a bad QB. His completion percentage is decent and he can run. OK, I'm done trying here. Christian Ponder is not very good, but when he does play well, the Vikings suddenly become a really tough team to beat. Rank: 6th

Coach: The NFC Playoff coaches are really deep this year, and if you count appearances in past jobs, Frazier is the only playoff 1st-timer in the field. I like Leslie Frazier, and I think he schemes and prepares his defense really well. He always can get d-lines to play well and have a deep rotation. I'm not too well versed on his clock management, but just the fact that he hasn't done this before is enough for me to be a little skeptical about Frazier. Rank: 6th

Interesting Note: The Vikings, despite being a run-first team with a short, limited passing game, does seem to play much better in a dome, as they are 0-5 in outdoor games. They were 7-1 at home, so if you do a little math, you can see that they were 3-1 in indoor road games (wins @DET, @STL, @HOU with a loss @IND). 

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Atlanta, though they do match up well with Atlanta's defense because Atlanta does struggle at times against the run, but the Falcons offense should shred this Vikings defense. The Falcons tackles are good and could limit the Vikings pass rush, and throw all over that secondary.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: San Francisco, as they have done it already. That was a strange game where Peterson did close to nothing, but Ponder played really well and they dominated time of possession and beat the 49ers at their own game.


5.) Seattle Seahawks  (11-5  =  412-245)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 412 ptf (9th), 245 pta (1st), 5,610 ydf (17th), 4,899 yda (4th)
= Outsiders: 38.3% team (1st), 18.5% off (4th), -14.1% def (4th), 5.7% st (3rd)
= Burke's: 0.66 team (3rd), 4th off, 6th def

Offense: The Seahawks offense has become better and better as the season went on as they opened up the playbook as Wilson got more and more acclimated to the offense. It was very evident early in the season that Wilson was given one or two reads and told to either throw or scramble (just watch the Tate/Jennings game again). That offense is totally different right now. In their 7-1 finish to the season, Wilson was brilliant, with 7 games with a passer rating above 100 (oddly, it was the 58-0 game that he didn't). The run game hasn't cooled off though, which is the strange part. Lynch had two massive games in the back-to-back 50-point extravaganza's, but even outside of those was consistently in the 4-5 y/r range all year long. Their receivers have stayed healthy (no small feat for Sidney Rice). Even Zach Miller stayed healthy all year long, though underutilized. The offense has stayed great for a while now, and though a rookie QB has never worked perfectly in the playoffs, Wilson is playing better than any rookie arguably ever. Rank: 3rd

Defense: The real reason why the Seahawks are so scary, though, is that defense, which is great at every level. The Seahawks defense is a testament to great drafting and a clear, concise and innovative plan. Let's start in front, where the Seahawks have used the rejuvenated Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin as their two best DEs, but up front their best players are their two massive DTs, Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane. Oddly, the Seahawks aren't a great run defense. The linebackers aren't all that great, but rookie Bobby Wagner has a great future, and KJ Wright is a nice player. The real treat is the secondary, which has passed its Adderall Suspension period. Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman make up the league's best corner tandem, and they have the size to play press coverage. Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas make up one of the best safety tandems. Overall, it is just a special secondary. Opponents had just a 71.8 rating against the Seahawks all year, which is great, as the Seahawks were one of the few teams to pick of more passes than allowed TDs. Their defense hasn't slowed down at all, giving up over 400 yards just once over the 2nd half of the season. It is a special unit playing really, really well right now. Rank: 1st

QB: As I eluded to, Russell Wilson is no normal rookie. He was really babied early in the season with limited routes and quick read-or-run plays, but Wilson has demonstrated a quick learning curve and is now running a much more exhaustive offense than he was early. Wilson has been careful with the ball, and while his scrambling isn't RGIII or Kaepernick, it isn't too far behind. In a really young NFC playoff field, even Russell's being a rookie isn't all that bad. Rank: 3rd

Coach: This is, strangely, Pete Carroll's 4th trip to the playoffs in his last 6 seasons as a head coach, but this seems to be a new Pete Carroll. For once, the team seems to be playing above its head, better than its talent. Carroll's style has undoubtedly worked, and his defense is the best in the league. I just don't think he is a great in-game coach in terms of time and game management. . Rank: 5th

Interesting Note: The Seahawks are demonstrably worse on the road, and most of the fall-off is the offense. The Seahawks score just 21.3 ppg and gain 342.5 ypg on the road (3-5), but scored 30.4 ppg and 358.8 ypg at home (8-0)

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: None. This is the best wild-card team, and I don't think they can't beat either. They match up worse with, again, Atlanta, who has depth in the secondary and good defensive lineman to contain that offense, and the Falcons offense can protect Ryan.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Again, they can beat either, but they have a better shot at beating the 49ers, who they just spanked two weeks ago. Without Justin Smith, the 49ers aren't as strong of a defense, and the Seahawks offense was able to get a good read at Kaepernick.


4.) Washington Redskins  (10-6  =  436-388)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 436 ptf (4th), 388 pta (22nd), 6,131 ydf (5th), 6,043 yda (28th)
= Outsiders: 9.6% team (9th), 15.3% off (6th), 1.8% def (17th), -4.0% st (27th)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (8th), 5th off, 24th def

Offense: This ranking will be considering what they are now, not what they were. I don't think people have solved the pistol with RGIII yet, but most of the problems that remain are reading the run options that RGIII does. What teams have somewhat solved is that passing game. They can really only consistently move the ball with play-action or screen passes. Griffin's completion percentage was down in the 2nd half. Either way, the passing offense just isn't that dynamic. What is dynamic, however, was that running game. Alfred Morris is incredible. Yes, running quarterbacks generally make the overall run game better (look at anywhere Michael Vick has been, or Denver last year with Tebow), but so much of Morris's yards have come after contact. He is really hard to bring down and makes great quick decisions. The passing offense is healthy, finally, outside of Griffin, as Pierre Garcon has returned to full form. They may start to miss having a dependable TE against the better defenses though, because Paulsen is decent, but barely a receiving threat. Overall, the Redskins offense is a little overrated from their early production, and RGIII is gimpy, but this is still a good offense. Rank: 5th

Defense: The defense just is not very good. That said, I am shocked they have even been as good as they have considering they lost Brian Orakpo early in the season. They have become a total blitz happy team, which leads to a ton of passing yards against, but also some mistakes. The Redskins allowed the 4th most passing TDs (31), but also got the 3rd most INTs (21), which is basically what Haslett is going for with that blitz happy defense. They blitz secondary players more than any other team in the NFL, which is probably a good use of a secondary which is not that good anyway. DeAngelo Hall is still mightily overrated, and the rest (Doughty, Wilson, etc.) are just guys. The Redskins defense has really done this with random guys (and London Fletcher, who is as good as he always is) and that is commendable, but against the offenses in the NFC, it probably won't be good enough, especially since the NFC has a ton of QBs that can run, which is a great blitz-beater. Rank: 6th

QB: Robert Griffin is in a perfect offense. Somehow, he never has to go to a 3rd or 4th read. That is a credit to the design and scheme of that offense. That said, Griffin is also part of what makes them special. I have never seen a QB do a fake-handoff that well in my life. I have no idea how defenses can read that play. The big issue with Griffin is he hasn't looked the same running since the injury. Rank: 4th

Coach: Mike Shanahan is one of just three Super Bowl winning QBs in the playoff field this year, but that Super Bowl success was a long time ago. In fact, any playoff game for Shanahan was a long time ago (2005 AFC Championship was his last). Shanahan's been great this year, as has his son and their offense, and he has become quite aggressive over the years. Rank: 3rd

Interesting Note: The Redskins have made the playoffs three times in the last eight years (this year, along with 2005 and 2007). Each time, they entered off a nice late run, winning 5 straight to finish a 10-6 season in 2005 and four straight to finish a 9-7 season in 2007. Both times they lost playoff games to.... the Seahawks.

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: San Francisco, who is a better version of Washington, with their own funky offense and running QB, but that QB has better weapons. The 49ers also have a much better defense in every conceivable way. I think that would not be a close game at all.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Atlanta, as the Falcons struggle against the run, and the Falcons offense is susceptible to the blitz, which of course the Redskins love. In a weird way, the Falcons probably want the Redskins to lose against Seattle.


3.) Green Bay Packers  (11-5  =  433-336)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 433 ptf (5th), 336 pta (11th), 5,751 ydf (13th), 5,388 yda (11th)
= Outsiders: 26.6% team (5th), 19.3% off (3rd), -7.3% def (8th), -0.2% st (18th)
= Burke's: 0.59 team (5th), 8th off, 9th def

Offense: The Packers offense is a strange fig. Aaron Rodgers had another dominant season, with a league-high 108.0 rating and 39 TDs to just 8 INTs. But he got sacked a bunch, again, and that led to some strange scoring outputs. The run game is still a mystery, because they have a bunch of random guys running, and another than DaJuan Harris, none of them were really effective,  but add it all together and the run game was decent. The pass game had receivers come in and out of the lineup, and the one constant was the mercurial drop-happy James Jones, but now they are all healthy. The weirdest part of the Packers: their scoring. 433 points overall is great, but 131 of those points came in three games (@HOU, vs. TEN, @MIN). They had some strange low-scoring games at home, like scoring just 21 against Jacksonville, or 24 and 27 against Detroit (all three games the Packers got a return TD). All in all, the Packers are still the best offense to me in the NFC right now, and they are healthier than ever with their receivers, and could easily go on a run like they did in 2010. Rank: 1st

Defense: The Packers went 15-1 last season and are a glamour team with a glamour QB, yet quietly nearly nabbed the #2 seed, and even more quietly improved their defense drastically from 2011. We always knew that 2011 had a chance to be a fluke in terms of how awful the Packers defense was, given that it was a good unit in 2009 and 2010 and the personnel was largely the same. The odd part was a lot of that personnel was hurt, like Woodson and Matthews, and the rookies stepped up, like MD Jennings, Casey Heyward and Jerel Worthy (who is now hurt). The Packers pass rush has come back with a vengeance this season (46 sacks), and while their pick-happy ways quieted, Tramon Williams returned to playing great coverage. Again, it is hard to imagine why this improvement happened given their best guys missed time, but it has happened, and while they aren't the best defense in the field, they have more than enough talent to hold opponents near 20 points, which is all this defense needs. Rank: 4th

QB: Aaron Rodgers is really good. If he has one flaw, it is a flaw everyone knows, and that is he holds the ball too long and takes too many sacks (still too many even when considering the bad protection he has). He is really accurate (though he tries to fit too many small windows which leads to incompletions), he can throw on the run. He can do everything. Let's move on. Rank: 1st

Coach: Mike McCarthy is a pretty good coach. His offenses are designed brilliantly, and utilize each weapon in their own ways, like designing a whole section of a playbook for Randall Cobb this year. The one issue with him is he gets conservative and runs way too much, but his play-calling is good enough to overcome that. Rank: 2nd

Interesting Note: The Packers didn't lose a playoff game at home until 2002, but since that snowy day where Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons walked into Lambeau, they are just 2-4 at home in the playoffs.

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: San Francisco, who they lost to 30-22 (game wasn't nearly that close) back in Week 1 at home. The 49ers defense matches up really well in all levels, being able to contain the short routes with their coverage linebackers. The last game featured Alex Smith, so I'm not sure how the Packers would play against Kaepernick.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Atlanta, although it almost certainly will not be 48-21 this time around like it was in 2010. The Falcons offense hasn't been able to throw deep on the Packers, and the Falcons defense hasn't been able to contain Rodgers at all.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (11-4-1  =  397-273)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 397 ptf (11th), 273 pta (2nd), 5,789 ydf (11th), 4,710 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: 29.9% team (4th), 17.0% off (5th), -14.3% def (2nd), -1.5% st (20th)
= Burke's: 0.69 team (2nd), 3rd off, 3rd def

Offense: So, did anything interesting happen to the 49ers offense this season? The next few weeks will give is the answer to the question of "Did Jim Harbaugh make the right choice?" The answer so far has been muddy. Kaepernick started out great against Chicago, then had an average performance against St. Louis. When everyone started questioning the move, Kaepernick went out and for the most part lit up the Pats, but then had a slow finish. Oddly, both QBs threw 218 passes this season, and statistically, Smith was still better, but the offense hasn't fallen that much. The Week 17 game was the first game in the Kaepernick era where the 49ers gained over 400 yards, but even in the Smith era they only gained 400 yards once (the 618 against Buffalo). They were just incredible consistent and efficient all year long. Not having Kendall Hunter hurts, but Kaepernick's running almost makes up for it, and LaMichael James had a nice cameo late. The receiving game has changed under Kaepernick to more deep routes, which utilizes Mario Manningham and Randy Moss more, but has underutilized Vernon Davis, which could be an issue going forward. Overall, the 49ers are still the same: a beautifully constructed, efficient offense, but they are a little more volatile right now. Rank: 2nd

Defense: The big question is if Justin Smith will be ready or healthy come the divisional round. He makes that defensive front work. He makes Aldon Smith into a pass rushing mosnter. Ray McDonald and Isaac Sopoaga are good players, but Smith is a dominant one. The linebackers are amazing in coverage, but they haven't really found a great way to use them in blitzes outside of Smith. The secondary has talent, but isn't always consistent. Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner are about as good of a safety tandem as any in the league, and they have depth at corner. However, all this adds to is that the 49ers have a great defense at every level, but that defense is just not as good as the Seahawks defense at any level. It can be, but it isn't as young, healthy or consistent. Rank: 2nd

QB: As I mentioned, both Kaepernick and Smith threw 218 passes. Smith was more efficient, completing 153 to 136 passes, for more TDs and a better rating (104.1 vs. 98.3). Kaepernick is more dynamic with more yards per attempt and completion, but more importantly, he's been extremely careful with the ball, throwing just three picks, but the inaccuracy might be a problem. Rank: 5th

Coach: Jim Harbaugh made his great decision, and the jury is still out as to whether it was the right one or not. So, let's evaluate Harbaugh and the staff outside of that move. The still design run plays better than any other team. They still use more weapons and formations that any other team (though it is a little more streamlined now). Vic Fangio uses that defense well also. Just a really good, competent coaching staff. Rank: 1st

Interesting Note: The 49ers are the first team to repeat as the #2 seed since, well... the 1989 & 1990 New York Giants. Teams often repeat as bye-teams, or #1 seeds, but being the #2 team in your conference two straight years is a strange and rare feat.



1.) Atlanta Falcons  (13-3  =  419-299)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 419 ptf (7th), 299 pta (5th), 5,906 ydf (8th), 5,849 (24th)
= Outsiders: 9.1% team (10th), 6.1% off (12th), -2.9% def (12th), 0.1% st (16th)
= Burke's: 0.57 (8th), 13th off, 17th def

Offense: The Falcons had to throw more this year than any year in the past as Michael Turner is well past his prime, and Jacquizz Rodgers isn't the runner many imagined he would be, but Matt Ryan and that passing offense still threw it well. Matt Ryan had the best year of his career this season, and a lot of that is the improvement of Julio Jones into a more complete receiver. He isn't just a deep threat, and his presence has even taken pressure away from Roddy White, he is now being used in a more efficient role, instead of the high-volume, low-efficiency way he was used when Ryan was throwing his way 180 times. Tony Gonzalez is ageless, and it is just amazing how good he was in 2012 at his age. The o-line is good, but doesn't handle the blitz well. Most top QBs play better when blitzed, but Matt Ryan is not one of them. They do have a slight problem turning yards into points in a lot of games, as they had way too many games scoring in the low 20's which they will need to improve on in the playoffs. Rank: 4th


Defense: The Falcons defense started the year with three good to great corners in Asante Samuel, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. Grimes is gone for the year, and Dunta got hurt in Week 17 (but should play), and Asante Samuel was great as usual. Their safeties are active all over the field, and Mike Nolan uses Thomas DeCoud and William Moore in coverage and as blitzers. While the Falcons are known for playing really well at home, but this year that impact has been felt defensively. They allowed 20.4 ppg and 377.8 ypg on the road, but stiffened up to 17 ppg and 353.4 ypg at home. They had three marquee home games, against the Broncos, Saints and Giants, and in those games, they allowed 34 points total, and picked off the Mannings and Drew Brees 10 times and allowed just 1 TD. They went down or rose to the level of the competition on defense, and that bodes well for the playoffs. Rank: 3rd

QB: Matt Ryan had the best season of his career, holding value through 615 throws, throwing for 7.7 y/a, 32 TDs and 14 INTs for a career-high 99.1 rating. Ryan once again was great in close games, leading numerous comebacks this year. That said, he had a weird penchant for having slow starts at home, including a 3-pick game against the Raiders and 5-pick game against the Cardinals, so that is something to look out for.  Rank: 2nd

Coach: Mike Smith is a nice guy and a fine coach, but he has been exposed in the playoffs for strange management decisions (like the one snap-count in the 2008 Wild Card game, the 4th down decisions last year, and the weird two-minute drill against Green Bay that ended in a pick-6). As for the coordinators, Mike Nolan gets blitz-happy at times, but it has worked.. Rank: 4th

Interesting Note: The Falcons are the #1 seed for the 2nd time in three years, and of course the last time they lost infamously 48-21 in the divisional round. Here are the list of coaches that have lost twice in the divisional round after having the #1 seed: Marty Schottenheimer.





Coming Up Next: Wild-Card Weekend Picks

2012 NFL Playoffs: AFC Playoff Primer

The AFC, a.k.a. the "Brady, Manning and four 'Fill-In-Team-Here' Conference"

6.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6  =  391-320)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 391 ptf (12th) 320 pta (8th), 5,323 yf (22nd), 5,115 ya (6th)
= Outsiders: 6.1% team (12th), -1.8% off (17th), -3.8% def (10th), 4.1% st (7th)
= Burke's: 0.51 team (13th), 19th off, 7th def

Offense: The Bengals offense just hasn't been very good outside of one great player. AJ Green is phenomenal. He is close to uncoverable 1-on-1. He can run almost every route, and Dalton has good chemistry with him. One thing to note is the drop in Green'y production in the last six games. Now, the team's offensive production was down, but a large part of that was Green. He had 10 TDs through 10 games, and had just one over the last 6. Some of that production is on Dalton as well, who had a pretty rough four game stretch to end the season. His overall stats are decent, and he can play hot, but he is a little too inaccurate. Another issue is there are too many secondary targets. Jermaine Gresham is the main one, but there are too many players competing for that #2 receiver spot (Hawkins, Jones, Tate). The run game is consistent, but Green-Ellis may be a little banged up. Another issue is the o-line hasn't been great in pass protection, as Dalton was dropped 46 times. Overall, just an average offense in a league where most playoff teams have good ones. Rank: 6th

Defense: The Bengals defense, however, has been great in recent weeks, and not only because of one great, great player. Geno Atkins is the main guy, the best 4-3 DT in the NFL right now. The 3rd year player led all interior lineman with 12.5 sacks, and was pretty consistent throughout the year. The rest of the D-Line is a mix of young players (Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap) and retreads that have found new life (Wallace Gilberry), and they provide a great pass rush. The linebackers are mostly JAGs, but rookie Vontaze Burfict had a surprisingly good season. The Bengals secondary also is a mix of JAGs, but their corners go five deep. Other than Leon Hall, none of them are close to stars, but they are all decent at coverage, and can matchup well with deep offenses. Overall, the Bengals defense has been on a roll. Since their loss to Denver put them at 3-5, they won 7 of 8 to end the season. Other than the Week 17 rest game, the most yards they gave up was 318 to the Giants. The most points they gave up was 20 to the Cowboys. They are playing really, really well right now. Rank: 2nd

QB: Andy Dalton might be a very good player three or four years from now. Right now, he is something like early career Joe Flacco. It is commendable that he made the playoffs again, something that few expected from the Bengals, but it has become obvious that he and the offense are holding them back. Dalton did not play well in last year's playoff game, but few rookies do. Overall, in a deep AFC Playoff QB group, Dalton just doesn't stack up, and while he is better in almost every way this year, with the talent he has around him, getting slightly better everywhere isn't good enough. Rank: 6th

Coach: It is hard to really judge a guy like Marvin Lewis. He should be commended for doing so well for so long in Cincinnati, something no one has done since Sam Wyche. He transitioned his team from an offense-heavy club back in 2005-2007, to a defense first one that has made the playoffs three times in four year. The only thing that eludes him is a playoff win. He's terrible with challenges but generally very good with going for it on 4th down, which is more important. Overall, he is perfectly average for a playoff coach. Rank: 4th

Interesting Note: This is the first time since the Colts and Patriots met in the 2003 & 2004 playoffs that two teams played in two straight playoffs. This is the first time both games were in the same round and the same time that I could reasonably expect to look up.

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Denver, because they don't match up well with Denver's defense. Denver's defense has a great pass rush, which could get to Dalton a lot, and a stable of corners to cover the Bengals various weapons.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: New England, because they have the defense to slow down the Patriots, with a good pass rush up the interior that can get at the Patriots weakness at the o-line position, and their offense should have time against a mediocre pass rush.


5.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5  =  357-387)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 357 ptf (18th), 387 pta (21st), 5,799 ydf (10th), 5,988 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: -16.0% team (25th), -2.9% off (18th), 14.0% def (31st), 0.9% st (12th)
= Burke's: 0.44 team (24th), 16th off, 30th def

Offense: The Colts offense was actually quite good at piling up yards through 12 games. After their shock comeback against the Lions, the Colts were 3rd in the league in yards. Then, in the last four weeks the Colts didn't get to 300 yards. Of course, they went 3-1 anyway. I still have no idea how they have done it, but the offense is at least respectable. They can sustain drives (4th in yards-per-drive), which limits how much their defense is on the field. The o-line is terrible, but Luck handles the rush well for a rookie. The x-factor is Donnie Avery, who has been mostly bad, but has gotten open quite a bit. Teams will work to take out Wayne and Hilton, so Avery has to step up, but I don't think he will. The run game has also cooled off in recent weeks, getting over 100 yards once in the last six games (though their low in that time was 81). Vick Ballard seemed to hit something of a rookie wall late. The good news is Coby Fleener has returned and looked more comfortable in his role. Overall, I think the team has an upside, but the offense was tiring late in the season. Rank: 5th

Defense: The defense is terrible. I know this. Most Colts fans know this. Most statheads know this. They have little talent because of injuries and free agent losses. They have their two best players still adjusting to a new position. They have their best safety playing average for him. They lost all their original Defensive Tackles (they weren't any good anyway), and are playing with a few street free agents in the secondary (Cassius Vaughn, Darius Butler). The Colts defense is not very good. Yet, they have a penchant for either giving up 30+ or less than 20. Just look at their last 11 games (following the weird 35-9 loss to the Jets), the Colts gave up 13, 13, 20, 10, 59, 13, 33, 23, 29, 13, 16. The better part was their defense in the 2nd half, which in all of those low scoring games they shut down opponents in the 2nd half. It was a great performance all around, but the hidden factor was that was mostly against mediocre to bad offenses. They aren't getting any of those in the playoffs. Rank: 6th

QB: Andrew Luck will be a star. What he has done with no offensive line, an average running game, four rookies among his top six receiving weapons, and a terrible defense is just amazing. But he wasn't a great rookie in what he needs to do to win in the playoffs. He is a little cavalier with the ball, and will give Baltimore (or any other team) chances for turnovers. He is a little too inaccurate. Everything is there for Luck's future, but his present isn't the greatest. Rank: 5th

Coach:  I have no idea how to accurately rank or judge the Colts coaching staff. Their defense seems to adjust really well in the 2nd halves of games. The big problem I have with the Colts coaching staff (and maybe Pagano will be different than Arians) was that they were incredibly conservative on 4th down once again. That won't fly in the playoffs. Also, their offense is built like Pittsburgh's old offense, with too many deep routes for a putrid o-line to protect. Rank: 6th

Interesting Note: The Colts of course were in Baltimore, and instead of Baltimore exacting revenge, the Colts have kicked Baltimore when they are down, beating them in the playoffs in both 2006 and 2009.

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Both teams. They aren't any good, and I don't think New England or Denver will fear them at all.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: The 2008 Carolina Panthers, maybe. Again, they aren't very good.



4.) Baltimore Ravens  (10-6  =  398-344)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 398 ptf (10th), 344 pta (12th), 5,640 ydf (16th), 5,615 yda (17th)
= Outsiders: 9.8% (8th), 3.0% off (13th), 2.2% def (19th), 9.0% st (1st)
= Burke's: 0.49 team (19th), 17th off, 16th def

Offense: The Ravens are what they always are for the past four years, but this time, they have the best offense in the Flacco era. They aren't the most efficient (that was the 2009 crew), or the most inventive (the 2008 team). But they may be the best, or at least the best Ravens offense in terms of what they could be. Obviously, the Ravens offense struggled mightily late in the season and that ended with the firing of Cam Cameron. The offense is decidedly mediocre, but the pieces are there, and like we saw in the Giants game, or the Patriots game in Week 3, the Ravens offense can be really good. Torrey Smith is healthy and playing well. Anquan Boldin is healthy. Ray Rice's limited use makes him a little more fresh now than what he was. The best part of the offense is they rarely turn the ball over, with just 16 all year. That bodes well against a possible New England game who relies on turnovers on defense. Rank: 3rd

Defense: I can't believe I am so down on the Ravens defense. Now, they have played considerably better the last few weeks. They were a mess early in the season, but post-bye, they were mostly a lot better. The defense is healthier now than they were at any time since the game where Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb went down. Oddly, Lewis may have been a bigger loss, as their run defense fell more than their pass defense, though that might be lingering injuries to Suggs and injuries to other linebackers. The secondary has come together to some degree, with Cary Williams and Corey Graham played quite well. The pass rush has also come together in piecemeal form. At the end though, most of the defenses in the AFC are better, and if the Ravens are going anywhere, it is because that offense plays up to potential, not if the defense can magically heal hurt players.  Rank: 5th

QB: It is hard to really be down on a guy who has made five straight postseasons as a starting QB, but Flacco is so maddening. He can look great, like he did against New England, the Giants, San Diego and a couple other games. Then he can look awful. It really comes down to protection, as if he has time to set his feet, he can be great. Flacco is also great at taking care of the ball, which is key in the postseason.  Rank: 3rd

Coach: John Harbaugh has been here before. He may not be the best coach, and most people would probably take his brother over him, but Harbaugh is generally good in time management, goes for it on 4th down, and his teams are always prepared. Hard to really argue with what Harbaugh has done. Rank: 2nd

Interesting Stat: The Ravens are better at home, but that increase is mostly on offense. The Ravens average 31.8 ppg and 400 yards at home against 18 ppg and 304 yards on the road. The defense is more consistent, but actually better on the road, giving up 22.4 ppg and 360 yards at home against just 20.6 ppg and 341.9 yards on the road.

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Denver. Just a terrible matchup. We have already seen this game just four weeks ago, in Baltimore and the Ravens didn't come close. They couldn't block the Ravens front, and Manning just knows how to kill that Baltimore defense.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: New England. They love playing the Patriots as everyone in the Ravens locker room truly feels like they can beat New England any time, any place. Flacco plays well against the Pats flaccid rush and coverage, and they limit turnovers against a defense that needs to force them.


3.) Houston Texans  (12-4  =  416-331)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 416 ptf (8th), 331 pta (9th), 5,953 ydf (7th), 5,172 yda (7th)
= Outsiders: 6.6% team (11th), 0.1% off (16th), -14.2% def (3rd), -7.7% st (32nd)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (7th), 12th off, 10th def

Offense: The Texans offense is the one offense that needs a lead, but if they get a lead (or avoid trailing by multiple scores), they can be great. Let's start with the run game. Arian Foster has had a pedestrian year, which I think has to do more with the o-line being injured and replacing two starters. What Foster was good at is important though. He was still great in the red zone, and was really consistent, with 11 games with y/a between 3 and 5. Then the passing game features the AFC's new whipping boy Matt Schaub. Again, it is because of some noticeable prime-time failures against Green Bay and New England (though it is hard to look good when Rodgers and Brady are on fire), and two bad performances to end the season. It is hard to argue with that, but he still completes a lot of passes, and since Andre Johnson got healthy, he has been a monster in the 2nd half of the season, with just two games with less than 90 yards in the 2nd half. They still have the firepower, but it is all about confidence and staying in a game. Rank: 4th

Defense: To me, the Texans defense is a bigger part of their epic fall from the presumptive #1 seed to the #3 seed. The Texans defense started the season playing brilliantly at every level. Kareem Jackson looked to have turned a corner. Their two safeties were playing great in man coverage. Antonio Smith was playing great, as was Brian Cushing. And of course there was Watt. Now, other than Watt, none of those player continued it. They were hurt with injuries to both Cushing and Jonathan Joseph, but even after Joseph returned the defense didn't get that much better. A big problem they have had is generating a pass rush outside of Watt (who has 22 of their 46 sacks), but Connor Barwin seemed to be playing better at the end of the season. Another issue is their run defense, which gave up over 100 yards 5 times in the last 8 games (ironically, one of the three exceptions was against Minnesota). That has to change. Rank: 3rd

QB: I have a bone to pick with the common belief that Matt Schaub is some fraud QB. Let's not forget that this guy threw for 4,770 yards and 29 TDs, completing 67.9% of his passes back in 2009. He was even more efficient last year before the injury. Of course, this is 2012. Maybe he is hurt, because some of his throws late in the season just looked off. Schaub is better than what he has been late in the season, but can he regain form quickly?  Rank: 4th

Coach: Gary Kubiak can scheme an offense, but he can't manage a game. He is undecesive and too conservative on offense. He runs Arian Foster too much. Wade Phillips on the other side hasn't been too good in the postseason, and his defense hasn't adjusted to losses in personnel. It needs to, and soon. Rank: 5th

Interesting Note: I was trying to think of another team that had dropped from a top-2 seed (let alone the #1 seed) to having to play in divisional weekend that quickly. The one team I immediately thought of was the 2006 Colts, who started 9-0 and had a two game lead over both San Diego and Baltimore, who both ended up passing the Colts who finished 3-4. Of course, those Colts won the Super Bowl. Lesson: don't overrate late-season performance.

Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: New England, we all saw that game. We all saw them unable to pressure Brady with anyone not named Watt. We saw them unable to run against a stout front, or throw to anyone not named Johnson. If they do meet, it probably will be closer, but the matchup issues aren't just going away.

Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Denver. I realize New England beat Denver by 10 and had a 31-7 lead, but no team dominated Denver like Houston did. Houston dominated them, and led by 20 despite not getting a turnover. They forced Manning into quick throws all game. The Texans are different now, but their matchup advantages still hold.


2.) New England Patriots  (12-4  =  557-331)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 557 ptf (1st), 331 pta (9th), 6,846 ydf (1st), 5,972 yda (25th)
= Outsiders: 34.9% team (3rd), 30.8% off (1st), 1.3% def (15th), 5.5% st (4th)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (6th), 1st off, 29th def

Offense: The Patriots offense is great, but I'll turn to advanced stats to say that it is not as good as the '07, '10 and '11 offenses. Some of that may be injuries to Gronk and Hernandez (both are back, if not 100%), and some may be rotating o-lineman, but part of it is also Brady. Brady, quietly, has been a little inaccurate this season, posting just a 63.0% completion percentage, his lowest since 2006. A lot of it is recent also, with six of his eight lowest completion percentage games coming in the 2nd half. The Patriots put up huge scoring numbers because they got a bunch of turnovers and short fields (if not defensive TDs). Part of it is also a running game that was fantastic early in the season, and was just merely very good in the 2nd half. Anyway, the o-line is still starting players that weren't supposed to be starting at the beginning of the season. It has shown at times, as Brady was sacked 27 times, but that number is actually in-line with his normal seasons. The offense has few holes, but one is still outside receiver, as Lloyd hasn't assimilated as many expected. He has had moments, but still seems to be on a different page with Brady at times. Then again, despite what everything I just said, the Patriots are pretty clearly the best offense in the NFL Rank: 1st

Defense: The Patriots defense ended up #9 in terms of points allowed, which is probably higher than their true value. The only reason of this is the fact that the Patriots forced an incredible number of turnovers, and mostly through fumbles (their INT numbers were normal). They didn't have a game without a takeaway (and 13 with multiple). We see the effect this has on their defense in the two advanced stats. Burke's stats devalue turnovers (because they are partly random and hard to forecast), and in his numbers the Patriots defense sucks, while Outsider's doesn't and to them the defense is average. I have no idea what it is, but they still have trouble stopping the passer, but if they can continue to force a bunch of fumbles and recover a lot of them, their defense should be fine. Rob Ninkovich got hurt in the last game, but reports are he should be back. Don't look too much into a freak 7 sack game against Miami, this pass rush is still average at best. Good o-lines should have a lot of time to work with. Aqib Talib has been an improvement, but he hasn't stayed healthy. A good way to look at the Pats defense is Pats fans are clamoring for an average 7th round pick (Alfonzo Dennard) to come back from inury. Then again, if they keep forcing takeaways and fumbles, they should be fine. I just wonder what happens if one day in January they don't force that turnover they have relied on. Rank: 5th

QB: Tom Brady, as I mentioned, has been slightly inaccurate this year. Of course, he is still ranked #1 in both DVOA and DYAR (Football Outsiders' two main defense-adjusted statistics), although a lot of that is adjustments for the defenses he has faced. That still doesn't explain his strange inaccuracy at times. Brady has started lofting his deep throws, which is another strange thing, but hey, it mostly works. Again, I am trying to nit-pick. Tom Brady is still awesome.  Rank: 2nd

Coach: Bill Belichick has 17 career playoff wins. The other five coaches have won 11 combined. Belichick is one of the top five coaches of all time, and although he has strange moments of conservatism (the end of the Cardinals game), it is hard to fault him for in-game management. Rank: 1st

Interesting Stat: How important was the Patriots getting a bye? In their five trips to the Super Bowl, they always had one of the Top-2 seeds, and this pushed back a potential road game (and if Denver gets knocked off, they won't have any) which keeps them comfortable, as the Patriots haven't played a true road playoff game since the 2006 AFC Championship in Indianapolis.
 
1.) Denver Broncos  (13-3  =   481-289)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 481 ptf (2nd), 289 pta (4th), 6,366 ydf (4th), 4,652 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 36.6% team (2nd), 22.1% off (2nd), -13.8% def (5th), 0.7% st (13th)
= Burke's: 0.72 team (1st), 2nd off, 2nd def

Offense: How consistent are the Broncos offense? They were only once held under 20 points (and it took two missed field goals for it to happen). Their lowest yardage output this season was 333 against Tampa. In their 11-game win streak they crossed 30 points 9 times. Manning's offense has become a machine late in the season. Yes, they didn't play the best teams, but most of the bad teams they played were bad offensively, not defensively. Manning's gotten lucky that his targets have stayed healthy all year. Decker and Thomas are mightly efficient (ranking #3 and #4 in receiving DYAR), and Stokey is incredibly efficient (#2 in receiving DVOA). The tight ends were used more late in the season. The run game can be an issue with fumbles, but in their last 7 games, they ran for 133, 95, 91, 140, 163, 118 and 172 yards. Their o-line is banged up, but with Chris Kuper coming back for the playoffs it should get better. They play really well at home, and are perfectly situated to put up big numbers in the playoffs. Rank: 2nd

Defense: What is scary about this Broncos team is that they are arguably better defensively than offensively. They rank 4th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. They are top-5 in pass and rush defense DVOA. The most yards they gave up in their winning streak was 366 to Cincinnati, and overall they allowed less than 300 yards 10 times. It obviously revolves around Von Miller who was incredible against both rush and pass, but Dumervil quietly had a great season, and they got great value out of underrated players inside, like rookie Derrick Wolfe (6 sacks) and Kevin Vickerson. They continue to start Keith Brooking, which could create issues against a TE-heavy offense like New England, but they started replacing him more in nickle packages late. Their secondary is deep and all their corners, especially unknown Tony Carter and Chris Harris, are playing well. Overall, their opponents gained fewer yards per drive than any other team in the NFL, and more drives ended in punts than any other team. The Broncos defense is very good, and with the Broncos getting leads early, the defense gets that much better. Rank: 1st

QB: Peyton Manning was brilliant this season. Yes, he didn't face the best teams, but he faced some good defenses in his run (Cincinnati, San Diego, Carolina, Baltimore are all above average pass defenses) and performed well against all of them. His arm looks fine, but even then his mind is more than fine. The chemistry he has with both Decker and Thomas this soon is incredible. Manning is a machine right now.  Rank: 1st

Coach: John Fox has had a good track record in the playoffs, with a 6-4 record in his four trips, including taking a less-than-talented Panthers team to a Super Bowl and an NFC Title Game two years later. He was conservative in Carolina but has become more daring this season with a better offense. Jack Del Rio has also gone away from his normal conservative defense and been very aggressive, which he will need to do against New England potentially. I trust these veteran coaches to do it, though. Rank: 3rd

Interesting Stat: The years that the Super Bowl is on CBS has usually meant good things for Peyton Manning. In 2003, the Colts finally broke through in the playoffs making the AFC Title Game. In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl. In 2009, the Colts lost the Super Bowl. And now we are in 2012. Can it continue?


Coming Tomorrow: The NFC Primer