NFL 2012: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

An interesting week of picks and games, so let's get to it.

Broncos (-10)  over  Raiders  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)
Ravens (+3)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  1-1  =  -1000)  (UPSET)
Browns (-6.5)  over  Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  2-1  =  +1000)
Steelers (-6.5)  over  Chargers  (WRONG  =  2-2  =  -1000)  (LOCK)
Colts (-5)  over  Titans  (WRONG  =  2-3  =  -1000)
Jets (-3)  over  Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  3-3  =  +1000)
Bears (-3)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  3-4  =  -1000)
Panthers (+3.5*)  over  Falcons  (CORRECT  =  4-4  =  +1000)
Eagles (+7.5)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  5-4  =  +1000)
Rams (+3)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  6-4  =  +1000)
Bengals (-2.5*)  over  Cowboys  (WRONG  =  6-5  =  -1200)
49ers (-10)  over  Dolphins  (CORRECT  =  7-5  =  +1000)
Cardinals (+10)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  7-6  =  -1000)
Giants (-5)  over  Saints  (CORRECT  =  8-6  =  +1000)
Lions (+7.5*)  over  Packers  (CORRECT  =  9-6  =  +1000)
Patriots (-3)  over  Texans  (CORRECT  =  10-6  =  +1000)

Week 14: 10-6  (LOCK: 0-1;  UPSET: 0-1)  (+3,800)

Year-to-Date: 116-85-7  (LOCK: 11-3;  UPSET: 9-5)  (+30,600)

Best Picks: I picked the 49ers to win 24-13, and they won 27-13. Of course, I'll do a special worst pick, as I picked the Seahawks to win 20-13 (Cards cover), and they won by a tidy 58-0.


Power Rankings

AFC

Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-11  =  216-359)

I still really want to know where exactly is Maurice Jones-Drew these days? Is he still alive? Has he retired? Is he going to emerge a couple months from now in Ricky Williams' house?


15.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-11  =  195-352)

It is hard to have your running back gain 165 yards on 18 carries and still lose by 23. It is worse to do this when you are losing to the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs never stop amazing me with their awful play.


14.) Oakland Raiders  (3-10  =  248-402)

It was nice to see the pass rush active for once, but they can't cover anyone with their lack of corners. I want to think the Jon Gruden return rumors are true, but I don't think that is fair to Dennis Allen.


13.) Tennessee Titans  (4-9  =  271-386)

I'll probably do this around the time the year ends, but I want to give an award to each team, and the Titans definitely get the "Lord Knows What Will Happen This Week" award, as they've blown 20-7 leads, lost 51-7 at home and won 37-3 on the road. Just a bizarre team.


Mediocrity is the Bane of a Team's Existence
 
12.) Buffalo Bills  (5-8  =  289-352)

Next week they get true mediocrity as they travel to Toronto to play the Seahawks, but the Bills easily could have won that game. The Fred Jackson injury might finally get CJ Spiller some games as a full-time back, as he is the one shinning light in another lost Bills season.


11.) Miami Dolphins  (5-8  =  240-276)

Remember when the Dolphins were 4-3 and went to play the 4-3 Colts? The Dolphins are 1-6 since that game (the Colts, using what can only be described as Dark Arts, are 6-1). Ryan Tannehill has fallen off, and despite decent performances, are in for another long winter.


10.) New York Jets  (6-7  =  245-306)

The fact that they are still alive is just amazing. What makes it worse is they dropped that truly winnable game in Foxboro earlier this year, or they could be over .500. One piece of good news is there is no way their Week 16 and 17 opponents rest starters this time around like three years ago.


9.) Cleveland Browns  (5-8  =  259-272) 

Three straight wins, and don't look now but if RGIII is out or gimpy, they could get a 4th. Of course, there are rumors they are looking to sign Mike Lombardi and Josh McDaneils as a package GM/Coach for next season, which is so utterly moronic, it makes hiring Butch Davis seem smart.


8.) San Diego Chargers  (5-8  =  292-281)

The Chargers somehow have a +11 point differential but are three games under .500. Just another dead season in San Diego. Despite beating down the Steelers, Philip Rivers is so amazingly innacurate now that it is kind of sad. Here was the best QB in the NFL from 2008-2010 statistically just playing like garbage. Sad.


The Team That Still won't Admit How Bad they Are

7.) Indianapolis Colts  (9-4  =  292-329)

I have no idea how they are doing it. They were down 20-7, playing soulless football (granted, that Pick-6 was absolutely the wrong call), yet somehow won despite Andrew Luck having a bad day. This wasn't like Luck's bad, but quietly good, day against Detroit. This was just a bad performance, yet they still won. Amazing, really. The best part is they might actually draw Baltimore in Round 1, the one opponent that wouldn't fleece them 45-10.


The Slightly Depressing Three Ring Circus
 
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-6  =  278-264)

I have no idea how to rank these three AFC North teams, as they all lost in excruciating fashion on Sunday, but I'm putting the Steelers last for losing to the worst team of the three and losing at home by 10 (but really much more, as it was 27-3 at one point). Roethlisberger, to me, actually seemed healthy, but that team was just awful around him.


5.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-4  =  331-273)

They might really lose four straight games after a 9-2 start with the Broncos and Giants coming to Baltimore the next two weeks. My gut feeling is they win one of those two games, but it will definitely make for an interesting time in Baltimore. Ray Lewis is returning, but he can't solve a suddenly average defense. I do like the moxie to fire Cam Cameron this late in a season, though.


4.) Cincinnati Bengals  (7-6  =  321-280)

I'm not quite sure how they blew that game. It isn't like Tony Romo had a great game. I guess it was an awful performance in the Red Zone that did them in, as Dalton seemed to move it easily from 20 to 20. That Geno Atkins is a superstar, quietly having an awesome season at a true DT spot. Their pass rush is so good.


If One of these Three Don't Make It, then We have a Problem

3.) Houston Texans  (11-2  =  365-263)

Well, that was bad. For the 2nd Time this season, the Texans gave up 42 points to a premier QB in a national game. The difference here was, at least to me, it was more the offenses fault for screwing up promising drives in that 1st half. I credit Gary Kubiak for going for it on 4th down twice in the 1st Half, but it didn't work, and made what could have been a 21-13 type game at halftime into 21-0. They have to move on. They still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they don't seem like a team that could beat Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the playoffs.


2.) Denver Broncos  (10-3  =  375-257)

Another Denver win that easily could have been far more comfortable than it was. The Broncos defense continues to stifle opponents, but gave up some long plays in the game. The offense is starting to have trouble scoring in the Red Zone. But these are relative problems, nitpicks for as complete a team as there is in the NFL.


1.) New England Patriots  (10-3  =  472-274)

They return to #1 with a dominant performance against the prior-to-NFL's best team. They still get absurd fumble luck, as they fumbled twice in the Red Zone and recovered both (including one for a fumble). The defense was impressive I guess, but I still feel they can be exposed against a team with more than one weapon. Oddly, I still think the Ravens are an awful matchup for New England.


Projected AFC Standings

1.) Houston Texans (14-2  =  vs.IND (w), vs.MIN (w), @IND (w))

2.) New England Patriots (13-3  =  vs.SF (w), @JAX (w), vs.MIA (w))

3.) Denver Broncos (13-3  =  @BAL (w), vs.CLE (w), vs.KC (w))

4.) Baltimore Ravens  (10-6  =  vs.DEN (L), vs.NYG (w), @CIN (L))

5.) Indianapolis Colts  (10-6  =  @HOU (L), @KC (w), vs.HOU (L))

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (9-7  =  @DAL (w), vs.CIN (w), vs.CLE (L))

***********************************************************

7.) Cincinnati Bengals  (9-7  =  @PHI (w), @PIT (L), vs.BAL (W))



NFC


Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes

16.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-9  =  186-292)

I guess it wasn't just Ryan Lindley then?


15.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-9  =  240-341)

Great win, and finally a performance by the defense that ended their run of historically putrid play against the pass. Nick Foles looks pretty good to me, and I think whatever coach replaces Andy Reid should at least attempt to stick with Foles, especially with the sullen crop of QBs in the draft.


2013 Could Bring Good Things

14.) Carolina Panthers  (4-9  =  265-312)

They aren't the best 4-9 team, but I think they will have a .500 or better season next year. Cam Newton is still a good QB in my eyes. Some of the plays he can make are incredible. That defense has been playing well since getting healthy, and they absolutely deserved that win on Sunday.


13.) New Orleans Saints  (5-8  =  348-379)

That loss essentially ends their season. What a failure for the Saints, as they fought all the way back to a 5-5 record, but then the schedule caught up with them as they had three straight games against current division leaders and lost them all by double digits. The Saints offense is nowhere near what it was a year ago, and some of that is on Brees, who is forcing way too many balls to Jimmy Graham.


12.) Detroit Lions  (4-9  =  320-342)

Here is a team that could go 13-3 next year and I wouldn't be surprised. I really hope they don't fire Jim Schwartz. They have everything except they keep making dumb mistakes. It is mostly Stafford, who's turnovers led to return TDs that proved to be the difference in both games against Green Bay. The Lions have all the pieces, but just need to put it all together. It is coming.


The Teams that are Alive in Only the Mathematical Sense

11.) St. Louis Rams  (6-6-1  =  236-279)

Credit them for pulling off three straight wins to make their season much better, and credit Jeff Fisher for keeping that team competitive. They were once 3-2, and then went in a 0-4-1 stretch, but have rebounded. They still haven't lost to an NFC West opponent, and that could be huge with a game in Seattle in Week 17.


10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-7  =  354-308)

That was a crushing loss. So many people liked them before the season, and then even more through the season when they stayed competitive. They still have a good point differential and nice pieces, but you can't lose to those types of teams and seriously be a playoff contender. 


9.) Minnesota Vikings  (7-6  =  283-286)

They keep staying .500 or better mainly because of Adrian Peterson. At least that game was won with the addition of a defense that basically scored 14 points by itself, but Adrian Peterson continues to prop up the league's most flaccid passing game. At least Ponder doesn't turn it over three or four times like those so-called 'quarterbacks' in Arizona.


The Sharks, Waiting for the Giants to Slip into the Water

8.) Dallas Cowboys  (7-6  =  300-314)

Big win for a team that has often seemed a little mentally weak. They still seem to play better on the road than at home, which is bad considering they have two home games upcoming. I'll give credit to Tony Romo for coming up big at the end after a mostly bad game through three quarters, and that defense for forcing field goals, but if AJ Green didn't have an uncharacteristically drop-heavy day, they lose and their season is all but over.


7.) Washington Redskins  (7-6  =  343-329)

Alfred Morris is a beast. That run game is the reason they are winning, not RGIII. I don't admit that RGIII is having a great season, and he has probably wrestled away the Offensive Rookie of the Year award away from Luck, but he has a dependable running game to lean on. They have a legitimate chance of going from 3-6 to 10-6, which would be one of the great runs of recent memory to end a season.


We'll Know in Just One More Week

6.) Chicago Bears  (8-5  =  308-219)

I actually don't think anything is wrong with their defense, which essentially gave up just 7 points in that game, as the Vikings returned two picks for a TD and to the 5-yard line. The Bears offense needs to play better. Luckily for them, they get two winnable games after next week, and if they go 10-6, it would be hard for them not to make the playoffs, but it would be huge to beat the Packers in the return leg. They still wouldn't have the division if the do win, but at least it will make them much more likely to make it to the playoffs.


5.) Green Bay Packers  (9-4  =  323-279)

There are three 9-4 teams in the NFL, and while the Packers probably are the best of the three, all three are slightly underwhelming. Aaron Rodgers had an average day, and that offense is still nothing close to what it was last season, but they continue to win these games. Amazingly, they can get the #2 seed after starting the season 2-3. That says more about the NFC as a whole, as the NFC has become a far more deep and balanced conference than the ultra-top-heavy AFC.


If One of These Four Don't Make it, then We have Slightly Less of a Problem

4.) Seattle Seahawks  (8-5  =  300-202)

That was impressive, but rarely will a team be that dominant two weeks in a row, so look for a possible struggle this week in Toronto. The Seahawks defense is playing out of its mind right now, but so is that offense. Russell Wilson didn't have a great game, but other than the now-benched Alex Smith, few do against the Cardinals defense. Marshawn Lynch picked it up, though, with a great game.


3.) Atlanta Falcons  (11-2  =  337-259)

They still have a firm grasp over that #1 seed, and a 49ers loss this weekend all but clinches it, but the Falcons still have a load of problems. They are slow in the beginning of games too much, and that offense is getting way too pass-heavy right now. Their defense also seems a step slower outdoors, which, I guess, wouldn't be a problem in the playoffs.


2.) New York Giants  (8-5  =  373-270)

That was, maybe, the worst performance in a 52-27 game, but the Giants continue to force a ridiculous amount of turnovers, and look like the scariest team in the NFC. There are serious questions about them winning that division, and potentially even making the playoffs at all, but if they get in, I can absolutely see them going on a run. The one difference this time, though, is the Giants have been good enough to make it less of a surprise in isolation.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  (9-3-1  =  316-184)

I still want to find flaws with the move to Kaepernick, and I still don't think it makes the team any better in 2012, but after their 27-13 win over the Dolphins, I did ask myself: what would the score have been had Alex Smith played? And the answer is probably around a 27-13 win. We all expect the 49ers to be better with Kaepernick for the move to be paid off, but as long as they are about the same then the move was fine. We'll find out more this weekend, but I still think the 49ers are the class of the NFC from a talent perspective.


NFC Playoff Projections

1.) Atlanta Falcons  (13-3  =  vs.NYG (L), @DET (w), vs.TB (w))

2.) San Francisco 49ers  (11-4-1  =  @NE (L), @SEA (w), vs.ARZ (w))

3.) Green Bay Packers  (11-5  =  @CHI (L), vs.TEN (w), @MIN (w)

4.) New York Giants  (10-6  =  @ATL (w), @BAL (L), vs.PHI (w))

5.) Seattle Seahawks  (10-6  =  @BUF (w), vs.SF (L), vs.STL (w))

6.) Chicago Bears  (10-6  =  vs.CHI (w),  @ARZ (w),  @DET (L))

********************************************

7.) Washington Redskins  (9-7  =  @CLE (L), @PHI (w), vs.DAL (w))



Looking Ahead to This Week's Games

Quick Note: This is probably the best week of football games of the year. Of course, it is also the weekend before my two finals, so I'm not sure when I'll actually watch these games. I might try to avoid modern society until after my last final on Tuesday ends. I've done this before (2010 playoffs) but that time I was in India. A little easier to avoid finding out the scores when you are in a country that doesn't know of the existence of the NFL.


16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-10)  (4:25 - CBS)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) New York Jets (6-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-9)  (MNF - ESPN)
13.) Detroit Lions (4-9)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-9)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (4-9)  @  San Diego Chargers (5-8)  (4:05 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)  (TNF - NFLN)

I call it "Let's Get This Shit Out of the Way and Enjoy Some Real Football" Sunday, as all these games feature at least one bad team. Thankfully, most of the bad teams this week are playing against other bad teams. Only two of these games have any sort of playoff implication, and one of those is due to the fact that the Jets have some sort of playoff chance. The worst part about this set of games is that two of them are two of the three primetime games. The TNF games are usually bad, but in what world would Jets @ Titans ever have been a good game at this point in the season.


10.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-8)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "I have No Idea What to Call It, but they are Better Than That Last Set" Sunday, as the Seahawks travel to Toronto to play a dead Bills team. This is the last road game for the Seahawks this season, and a win here would really help their chase of the NFC West title. The Bucs and Saints are playing a game that could easily end 45-38, but since neither team is making the playoffs, who, other than fantasy owners, cares?


8.) Indianapolis Colts (9-4)  @  Houston Texans (11-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The Worst Game with Two Teams that are a Combined 20-6 Ever" Sunday, as I can really see the Colts losing by 30. The Texans are much better than that thing we saw on Monday Night, and the Colts have absolutely no one that has a prayer of blocking JJ Watt, or really stopping Andre Johnson. This could be billed as a game for the division, but it most likely won't be.


7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6)  @  St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Washington Redskins (7-6)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Survivor Sunday" as the Vikings, Rams and Redskins look to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. the Redskins are probably in best position to lose this game and still make the playoffs because of the Giants' schedule, but a loss would be crippling for them. The Vikings and Rams are the worst two teams in the NFC Wild Card Chase, and the loser is basically out. The winner has a glimmer of hope, though. Just the fact that this is true about this game in Week 15 is amazing.


5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)  @  Dallas Cowboys (7-6)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Nostalgia Sunday" as the Steelers and Cowboys have a matchup that for many evokes memories of Super Bowls past, of dominant dynasties in the 70's, and all that other sappy crap. For me, though, it evokes memories of Week 14 in 2008, the last time these two met, when the 8-4 Cowboys and 10-2 Steelers battled it out in Heinz Field, and in a old-fasioned smashmouth game, the Steelers came back from 13-3 down in the 4th Quarter to win 20-13 on an Ike Taylor pick-6. It was, as Mike Tomlin said afterwards, a "beautiful game." Anyway, this one is in Dallas, so it probably won't be as picturesque.


4.) Denver Broncos (10-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1)  @  New England Patriots (10-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Playoff Positioning" Sunday, as all four teams are pretty sure bets to make the playoffs (the Broncos and Pats have already clinched, and one more win by the other two in their remaining games gets them in without any outside help), but this game will go a long way towards seeding. The Broncos might be better off with the #4 seed, as that draws Indy in Round 1 and avoids a trip to New England in Round 2. Of course, they are still one slip-up by the Pats away from a 1st Round Bye. The 49ers look to hold off the Packers for that #2 seed in the NFC, as the Pats look to hold off the Broncos in the AFC.  That game can reaffirm the Pats position as the league's best team, or show the world that they are mortal and the Jim Harbaugh made the right choice.


1.) Green Bay Packers (9-4)  @  Chicago Bears (8-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

A win by the Packers all but wraps up the division, and a win by the Bears keeps the race going. Had the Bears won one of their last two games and entered this at 9-4, it would have been the #1 game in the Week, but with an 8-5 record, a Bears win doesn't give them the inside track to the division title. A Bears win will go a long way in getting them to the playoffs, though.


2.) New York Giants (8-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (11-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

Just a great game, but I have no idea why it needs to be played at 1PM. The Giants are playing for a division still, and a loss here really hurts with a trip to Baltimore next week. It would be an epic collapse if the Giants don't win the division. A win by the Falcons all but wraps up the #1 seed, and finally will quiet some of the doubters as the Falcons can beat a team with a load of playoff pedigree. The Giants get another chance to beat one of the NFC's best, as they've done in all their major games this year. A great game with tons of storylines.


Coach of the Year

3.) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)

Kubiak is still up there, but that is because it is hard to come up with good candidates. I still don't see any way an interim coach wins it, but Bruce Arians, by the outline of the award, probably is the best candidate. Pete Carroll made a gutsy decision to go with Russell Wilson and it paid off quite well, and Mike Shanahan's offense has made Washington into one of the league's most efficient and exciting teams.


Defensive Player of the Year

3.) Aldon Smith (OLB - SF)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)

Aldon Smith picked up two more sacks, but as recent DPOTY votes have shown, it takes more than just a high sack total to win the award. Jared Allen had 22.0 last year and lost to Terrell Suggs, who arguably had the better overall season. This year, Von Miller and JJ Watt are having better overall seasons. I still have an edge to Watt for doing it at a tougher position to pile up those types of numbers.


Offensive Player of the Year

3.) Peyton Manning (QB - IND)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)

Manning is still in the running as the best QB statistically this year, but Brady and Rodgers are right there. Calvin is still on pace to break Jerry Rice's yardage record, but to me his lack of TDs hurts him. Peterson has the TDs, but also a legitimate chance at 2,000 yards for a team with absolutely no passing game to take any pressure off him.


MVP

5.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
4.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)

Watt is still there for having an ungodly impact as a 3-4 DE. Peterson remains, and is closing in on the top three, for being the sole reason his team is above .500 and still in the Wild Card hunt. Then we get the top-three QBs. Unlike baseball, there is a separate award for OPOTY and MVP, so for MVP I look at things like situation and narrative. Rodgers has had his two main targets in and out of the lineup, has had a revolving door at tackle and no run game and is about 95% as good as last year. Brady has had some of these things (no Hernandez and then no Gronk, revolving door at guard) but has a great run game. Manning joined an 8-8 team that should have gone 6-10, and has led them to a 10-3 record. He's changed that franchise, made Demarryius Thomas into one of the premier weapons in the NFL. He embodies what 'most valuable' is all about.

NFL 2012: Week 14 Picks

Just to restate, I am putting 1,000 fake dollars on each game, and putting up 200 extra dollars to buy half a point either way. OK, with that done, let's get to the picks.


Denver Broncos (9-3)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-9)  (DEN -10)

This is a high line, and the Broncos have a strange habit of giving up late TDs to come close to the number. They blew a -7.5 line against the Chargers by giving up a late TD, and almost did it again against the Buccaneers. I can totally see the Broncos winning by 17 and giving up a late TD to the best garbage-time offense in the NFL. Then again, the last time these two played, it was 37-6 despite Demarryius having a TD punched out of his hands. The Raiders are even worse now than they were then. I can't see a flat Raiders team that doesn't look like it is trying on defense beating a Broncos team that needs to put pressure on New England for that #2 seed.

Broncos 34  Raiders 13  (DEN -10)


Baltimore Ravens (9-3)  @  Washington Redskins (6-6)  (WAS -3)

The Ravens are an interesting team. Apparently, they are the best Special Teams through 12 games that Football Outsiders has ever measured. Their defense is worse than the Patriots defense by that same ranking, and allowing Charlie Batch to go 25-36 is evidence of that. That said, I don't think these two teams are even, as the line suggests. The Ravens aren't as good as a 9-3 team, but they aren't that far off. Plus, they haven't lost back-to-back games since October 2009. Also, can you really see the Redskins running off 7 in a row to end the year? I can't. The Redskins are also off a short week, and this is a rivalry game for the Ravens that they have owned. I love the Ravens here.

Ravens 23  Redskins 20  (BAL +3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Kansas City Chiefs (2-10)  @  Cleveland Browns (4-8)  (CLE -6.5)

Can you believe the 5-8 Browns are getting nearly a TD? Has there ever been a team three games under .500 that has gotten this many points before? The more weird part is I am down with that. The Browns have won two straight games and haven't been blown out all year long. I also don't like the Chiefs in this spot, as their emotions that ran high last Sunday are in for a letdown (much like the Colts after Pagano's diagnosis after the emotional win over the Packers). I do think the letdown will happen, and I just like this Browns team right now to take care of business.

Chiefs 17  Browns 27  (CLE -6.5)


San Diego Chargers (4-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  (PIT -6.5)

This is the line when Ben starts, and it looks pretty certain that he will. In the Rivers era, the Steelers have owned the Chargers, beating them twice in 2008, in 2009, against one loss back in the LDT era in 2006. And those were the Steelers beating better Chargers teams than this one. Quietly, around Roethlisberger's injury, Antonio Brown returned and he looks healthy. Roethlisberger is returning to a better cast than he left. The Steelers have an outside shot at the division and it would start with a win here against a dead team traveling West to East. I think the Chargers are just done at this point, and can't even see them getting up for this one.

Chargers 14  Steelers 31  (PIT -6.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


Tennessee Titans (4-8)  @  Indianapolis Colts (8-4)  (IND -5)

When I saw this line for the first time, I thought "This is too high." Now that I've seen it more, I've come down from that opinion. The Colts are pretty close to money in any home game or winnable game. They haven't traveled well and that probably portends a dark day on January 5th or 6th in Baltimore, Denver or New England, but for this game, they are in a good spot. The Titans with Locker haven't really stepped up since getting him back. They looked so flaccid against the Texans last week. The Colts are healthier now than they've been at any point this season, and I would say they could look past the Titans with their game in Houston coming up, but the Titans are still a divisional rivalry. I'll go with the Colts to, somehow and someway, go to 9-4.

Titans 20  Colts 27  (IND -5)


New York Jets (5-7)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)  (NYJ -3)

I was wrong with Chad Henne last week, and from what I have seen with the Jets, their defense can absolutely dominate middling offenses, as they did three weeks ago in St. Louis, or last week against the Cardinals. The Jets themselves are going back to Sanchez, which is worrisome, but I have a feeling the benching will motivate him for at least one game. I don't want to think about this game for too long, and I'll stick with my judgement of the Jets defense shutting down a bad offense.

Jets 20  Jaguars 13  (NYJ -3) 


Chicago Bears (8-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  (CHI -3)

The Bears are definitely in flux right now. They will almost certainly still make the playoffs, but things are getting more interesting. That game next week against Green Bay still looms large, but I can see this being a tricky game. The Bears rush defense is nowhere near as good as their pass defense, and that isn't a good matchup when playing Adrian Peterson, but the Ponder passing game probably will do nothing. The Bears are getting Alshon Jeffery and Devin Hester back, so this is the first game with Cutler and all the weapons in two months. I think they cover this low number and go to 9-4 heading into their showdown for the division next week.

Bears 27  Vikings 16  (CHI -3)


Atlanta Falcons (11-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-9)  (ATL -3)
 
If the Falcons are going to lose a surprise game, it is this one. They have another "prove something to me" type game next week when they host the Giants, and right now they have essentially a three game lead on the rest of the conference (they have to lose three more games for anyone else to pass them), so they have some give here. The Panthers nearly beat them the first time, just as they have nearly beaten a whole bunch of other teams. The Panthers passing game matches up well with the Falcons, and I don't think the Falcons can really hold down Cam in the running game. Also, the Panthers defense is a lot better than it was back in late September. I think they get back here, but that line does scare me as it is so low, so I will buy half a point the other direction.

Falcons 23  Panthers 27  (CAR bought up to +3.5)


Philadelphia Eagles (3-9)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)  (TB -7.5)

I don't know if I trust the Buccaneers to cover a touchdown spread. The Eagles defense is historically bad right now (though I think their streak of giving up 120+ passer ratings will end here), but their offense looked alive. A lot of that is Bryce Brown, who now faces a good rush defense. Overall, I have no idea where to go with this game (I have little idea about of lot of games this week), so I'll go with my gut.

Eagles 24  Buccaneers 30  (PHI +7.5)


St. Louis Rams (5-6-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-7)  (BUF -3)

I have a little more confidence here. The Rams are a good team that had two awful games (vs GB and vs NE in London). Other than their Week 1 loss to Detroit, they've lost to great QBs playing great, or to very good to great defenses (MIA, NYJ, CHI). The Bills are neither of these things. The Rams, believe it or not, have a shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule coming up. This is a winnable game for them, as their defense can slow down the Bills short passing game. The Bills defense also isn't good enough to shut down the Rams offense. I like the Rams in this position.

Rams 23  Bills 20  (STL +3)


Dallas Cowboys (6-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)  (CIN -3)

I have seen a lot of people picking the Cowboys here. I absolutely disagree. The Bengals are an awful matchup for the Cowboys. The Bengals, quietly, have one of the best d-lines in the NFL this year, spearheaded around Geno Atkins, and the Cowboys have suffered badly against good deep d-lines like Cleveland and Chicago. The Cowboys defense has also been regressing in recent weeks, and the Bengals offense is getting better (good to know that BenJarvus is alive again). The Bengals can smell a surprise return to the playoffs (I guess the Cowboys could too), and they also have revenge on their minds with corners PacMan and Terrence Newman. The line is also low. Give me the Bengals, but I'll buy half a point to be safe.

Cowboys 20  Bengals 31  (CIN bought to -2.5)


Miami Dolphins (5-7)  @  San Francisco 49ers  (8-3-1)  (SF -10)

This is a high line, but the 49ers have been dominant against their middling AFC foes (beating the Jets 34-0 and the Bills 41-3). Colin Kaepernick should be able to get time against that pass rush, but I don't think their offense can reach that level against a good defense of Miami that they did agaisnt the Jets and Bills. The more interesting side of the matchup is the Dolphins offense against the 49ers defense. The Dolphins offense has really regressed from midseason, and I think that continues here. I hate picking favorites on double-digit lines, but including the next game, I might do it three times, which I hate. I'll pick the 49ers, but that could be another mistake on what could be a bad week.

Dolphins 13  49ers 24  (SF -10)


Arizona Cardinals (4-8)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-5)  (SEA -10)

My sickness continues in liking the Cardinals. Of course, the one week I decide to not pick them, they lost to Mark Sanchez/Greg McElroy. Lost in the Cardinals 0-8 run is that their defense has made a nice comeback recently and is back to playing great. They were good against Rodgers (holding him to near 50% completions), brilliant against Matt Ryan (five picks), good against Bradford, and great against Sanchez. Now they get Russell Wilson. The only issue with picking the Cardinals to win is their offense is atrocious, but I can't, in good conscience, pick all three double-digit favorites to cover, and this being a division game, I feel like the Cardinals might come to play.

Cardinals 13  Seahawks 20  (ARZ +10)


New Orleans Saints (5-7)  @  New York Giants (7-5)  (NYG -5)

So, the last three times Drew Brees played the Giants, the Saints won and scored 30, 48 and 49 points. Of course, those were the three best Saints teams in the Brees era (2006, 2009, 2011), also, the two 40+ point games were in the Superdome. This is outdoors, in December, when the Saints are nowhere near that good. Other than one close win against Atlanta, the Saints haven't beaten a single good team, and usually looked pretty bad in the process. The Giants will probably know how to attack a Steve Spagnuolo defense as well. The Giants are now more desperate in this game, because they probably don't want to enter the last three games of the season in 2nd place with that schedule. I think the Giants finally figure out the Saints with Brees to a point, and outscore them anyway against what is still a soft defense.

Saints 24  Giants 31  (NYG -5)


Detroit Lions (4-8)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-4)  (GB -6.5)

My sickness with the Cardinals is carrying to Detroit. The reason not to pick them (apart from Green Bay being better and at home) is the Lions are coming off of three demoralizing home losses that they all led with 2:00 to go (Packers, Texans, Colts). That said, the Lions rarely get blown out, and their defense knows how to play a Rodgers-led Packers offense (ironically, not a Flynn-led Packers offense). With Rodgers at QB, the Packers haven't scored over 30 against the Lions since 2009. The Packers owe the Lions after stealing a win three weeks ago, and with a much larger game coming up next week against the Bears, I think they give it back. It might be my dumbest pick of the year, because there certainly is a scenario where the Packers roll, but I think the Lions pull it off. The Packers have been playing with fire at home all season long, and they finally get burnt. But, just to be safe, I'll buy a full point for the Lions, so they get a TD buffer.

Lions 27  Packers 23  (DET bought to +6.5)


Houston Texans (11-1)  @  New England Patriots (9-3)  (NE -3)

I would love to pick the Texans. If this game was in Houston and if Jonathan Joseph was playing (basically, what could be the situation come January 20th) I probably would, but I think this game not only means more for the Pats (holding onto the bye), but is the type of game the Patriots usually win. Outside of their memorable spanking from the Saints (well, memorable to me) in 2009, I can't think off hand of a time the Patriots lost a MNF game. The line is low, which actually makes me nervous. Very smart people in Vegas are telling us that the Texans are much closer than most would think, but I do think the Patriots win this round. Whether they do in January is a different story.

Texans 24  Patriots 30  (NE -3)


Enjoy the Games

NFL 2012: Week 14 Power Rankings & The Rest

OK, so, we are at the three-quarter pole this year. Every team has played 12 games. At this point, I care less about how teams are perceived in total, but how they stack up in their conferences. The playoffs are approaching. So, I'm still going to review my picks like normal, and rank next week's games like normal, but the other two parts will have changes. First, instead of a 32-1 power ranking, I will be doing one for each conference, breaking them down into groups of non-playoff teams, playoff hopefuls and the top of each conference. I still will make playoff projections, but I'll make it more detailed by giving a prediction for each team's remaining games. Finally, I am adding an award watch part as well.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Falcons (-3)  over  Saints  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bears (-3.5)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  1-1  =  -1000)
Vikings (+9)  over  Packers  (PUSH  =  1-1-1  =  0)
STL (+7.5*)  over  Rams  (CORRECT  =  2-1-1  =  +1000)
Jets (-4.5)  over  Cardinals  (WRONG  =  2-2-1  =  -1000)
Panthers (-2.5*)  over  Chiefs  (WRONG  =  2-3-1  =  -1200)
Colts (+5)  over  Lions  (CORRECT  =  3-3-1  =  +1000)
Patriots (-7)  over  Dolphins  (PUSH  =  3-3-2  =  0)
Jagaurs (+5.5)  over  Bills  (WRONG  =  3-4-2  =  -1000)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Texans (-6)  over  Titans  (CORRECT  =  4-4-2  =  +1000)
Broncos (-7)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  5-4-2  =  +1000)
Browns (-3)  over  Raiders  (CORRECT  =  6-4-2  =  +1000)
Bengals (-1.5)  over  Chargers  (CORRECT  =  7-4-2  =  +1000)
Ravens (-8.5)  over  Steelers  (WRONG  =  7-5-2  =  -1000)
Eagles (+10)  over  Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  8-5-2  =  +1000)
Giants (-2.5)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  8-6-2  =  -1000)

Week 13: 8-6-2  (LOCK: 1-0;  UPSET: 0-1)  (+1,800)

Year-to-Date: 106-79-7  (LOCK: 11-2;  UPSET: 9-4)  (+26,800)

Best Picks: Nothing really that close this week.


Power Rankings


AFC

Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes*

* - for the rest of the season, the blurbs for this section will be really, really short.

16.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-10  =  188-322)

I'm happy they got their win, for more than one reason. Of course, there is the obvious reason of them fighting through the adversity of losing a teammate (a teammate that, let's remember, killed someone), and also the reason that they will avoid losing all their games at home. That should never happen.


15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-10  =  206-342)

I guess Chad Henne wouldn't make that team decent all of a sudden, huh? Also, is Maurice Jones-Drew even alive at this point?


14.) Oakland Raiders  (3-9  =  235-376)

No one can stat-pad like Carson Palmer, who is going to have the worst 4,500 yard season of all time. Same with Brandon Myers, who is even more quietly having a good season at Tight End. 


13.) Tennessee Titans  (4-8  =  248-359)

Well, their defense didn't quit, but the offense kept giving the ball away. You can't do any of that if you want to beat a 10-1 team.


12.) New York Jets  (5-7  =  228-296)

Personally, I don't think Greg McElroy is the answer, but I hope he gets the rest of the season to prove himself. It will help that he gets to face a soft slate of defenses.


11.) San Diego Chargers  (4-8  =  258-257)

Something is very, very wrong with Philip Rivers. I excused his lackluster 2011 season as a one-off abberation, but this is now really wrong. He doesn't have that beautiful deep ball. In the end, it looks like Philip Rivers will flame out far earlier than anyone would have imagined.


10.) Miami Dolphins  (5-7  =  227-249)

Good performance by that defense, but I am worried about Ryan Tannehill. He was OK against Seattle, but he missed open guys all game against New England. Not a good sign to play that way against a bad defense.


9.) Buffalo Bills  (5-7  =  277-337)

Good win for a team that has at least remained competitive and interesting throughout this season. It could have been so much more though.


8.) Cleveland Browns  (4-8  =  229-265)

They play the Chiefs next, and have a chance to get to 5 wins and win three straight games. That defense really is good, and they have a solid core. Just find a QB, for once.


The Muddled Mess of Mediocrity

7.) Indianapolis Colts  (8-4  =  265-306)

I have no idea how they won. I have no idea how Luck could have 30 incompletions and three picks, and the Colts still be able to win. I have no idea how Calvin Johnson didn't have 250 yards receiving. I have no idea how they were able to pull that off. I have no idea how I might get my wish and the Colts drawing Baltimore in Round 1.


6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-5  =  254-230)

That was a huge win, with the Bengals also winning, as they stay level for the #6 seed with Ben presumably back this weekend. They have a chance to run the table with two easy games, and then a trip to Dallas and that gauntlet game against Cincinnati. That defense continues to improve each week, and is now starting to get turnovers. Whoever Cortez Allen is, he is playing really well at corner.


5.) Cincinnati Bengals  (7-5  =  302-260)

Take care of business. That is what the Bengals failed to do against the Dolphins and Browns earlier this year, but that is what they've done the last two weeks, blowing out the Raiders and then going to San Diego in a tricky game and beating them. Their schedule is a bit harder than Pittsburgh's down the stretch, but they still have a chance.


The Team that Can't Possibly go to New Orleans, Could They?

4.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-3  =  303-242)

Well, the worst 9-2 team of all time (as judged by how people perceived them) is now just one of the worst 9-3 teams of all time. How could the Ravens blow a 13-3, and 20-13 lead at home against a Charlie Batch led team. The Ravens got one of the biggest breaks of all time, with Roethlisberger's injury coinciding with both games against Baltimore, and they couldn't take advantage. They still have a shot at a bye, but it will be tough. Either way, I don't think anyone will pick them to go on the road in the Divisional Round and win if they get there.


One of These Three Will be in New Orleans, Won't They?

3.) New England Patriots  (9-3  =  430-260)

The Patriots finally faced a real defense and a team that wouldn't butt-fumble, and despite still getting some breaks (the Dolphins punter going out there with them greasy hands), the Patriots looked mortal. It took a week, but we might be seeing the real impact of losing Gronkowski. Everyone remaining is coverable. Brandon Lloyd was totally taken away. The run game didn't work (admittedly, it did when they needed it to late). The o-line took a hit. He better be back soon for them.


2.) Denver Broncos  (9-3  =  349-240)

The Broncos are doing what the Colts perfected, which is giving up garbage time points to make games seem closer than they were. They did this against the Chargers (winning 30-23 instead of 30-16), and did it again here. Matt Prater is now missing field goals. That said, they made a good offense look totally average, and took over after a slow second half. It is easy for them to look past these games to that showdown with Baltimore, but trailing at half time woke them up, and they woke up in a rage.


1.) Houston Texans  (11-1  =  351-221)

If they win next week, not only will they almost assuredly get the #1 seed, but they will have one of the best resumes of any recent team (maybe with the exception of the '07 and '10 Pats) in terms of who they beat. Anyway, the defense returned to form, and the offense did just enough, as they always seem to do. Next week is huge, and getting Jonathan Joseph back for the game is about as big.


NFC

Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes

16.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-9  = 217-320)

Nick Foles looked good. He looked confident. Bryce Brown looked even better. The defense was just terrible. Kudos to CaptainComeback, but the Eagles have allowed opposing QBs to have a passer rating above 120 for the 6th straight game.


15.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-8  =  186-234)

The defense looked good, and Patrick Peterson looked even better. The offense was just terrible. How can Ryan Lindley continue to be played. The only reason I can think of is Ken Whisenhunt is basically firing himself at this point.


14.) Carolina Panthers  (3-9  =  235-292)

 Tough position for them, but they should have been able to win that game. The Panthers played it like they weren't even aware the Chiefs only true ability on offense is their run game.


13.) Detroit Lions  (4-8  =  300-315)

They could so easily be 7-5 right now, as they've blown three straight home games. The Lions will rue their missed chances, but I still do like this team long term.


The Even More Muddled Mess of Mediocrity

12.) St. Louis Rams  (5-6-1  =  221-267)

They are 4-0-1 against other NFC West teams. Their only game left is @SEA, which seems like it would probably be a loss, but if the Rams could win that game, they might be the worst team ever to go undefeated in their division. They play really tough and Janoris Jenkins has really come on the last couple of weeks. He has a bright future, as does that team.


11.) New Orleans Saints  (5-7  =  321-327)
I want to make an assertion: Discounting Philip Rivers because of his regression, Drew Brees is the most run-game dependent great QB of this era. He has yet to really have a great season with a bad run game, something Peyton has done all the time, and something Brady, Rodgers, Eli and Ben have done in the past.


10.) Minnesota Vikings  (6-6  =  262-272)

They have an issue at QB that needs addressing. Christian Ponder might do a fine poor-man's-Rich-Gannon impression, but he is definitely not the long term answer in any rational line of thinking. They are wasting away Adrian Peterson's incredible career (although you can make the argument that his fumbles played a part in wasting away the 2009 NFC Title Game), and it is sad to see. He is so good, but the QB is so average, that the team is stuck being third banana in a two-team division.


9.) Dallas Cowboys  (6-6  =  280-295)

Good win by the Cowboys, who could have folded numerous times, but it folding is hard to do when playing the Eagles defense as currently constituted. I'm just so grateful that they gave up that punt return late which allowed the Eagles to cover. Thank you so much, 'Boys. The Cowboys still have a shot at the division, but they have to win at least one of their two games against the AFC North.


8.) Washington Redskins  (6-6  =  312-301)

They have a realistic chance of winning the division, but I don't think they will pull it off with the schedule they have coming up. They still host Dallas (who would love to pull some revenge off), and a trip to Cleveland could be tricky. That said, the schedule is easier than the Giants. They actually have a shot at the division, which is scary.


7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-6  =  333-285)

They looked really inferior in that game, despite being ahead at halftime. Josh Freeman just couldn't do anything after a hot start in the first quarter, but that isn't a surprise against what is becoming a really good pass defense. Their defense played well, but this team is still a few steps away. What scares me, though, is I could have written the exact same first three sentences about the 2010 Buccaneers.

 
The Team Who's Rookie QB and Flaky Play on the Road Will End Their Chances

6.) Seattle Seahawks  (7-5  =  242-202)

Big, big win for a frustrating team. They blow multiple leads to the Dolphins one week and then drive 97 and 80 yards to win the game against the Bears. Great game by Russell Wilson when his run game wasn't exactly working. I would sign up for a playoff rematch right now. That said, I fear for that type of team in the playoffs.


The Only Fun Race Left

5.) Green Bay Packers  (8-4  =  296-259)

I still have them behind Chicago because outside of two games (@ HOU, @ STL), their offense hasn't clicked all year. Even yesterday, Aaron Rodgers had a good game, but the team deservedly just mustered 23 points. They haven't played great at home all year long, which makes next weeks game more interesting as they host Detroit on SNF. Their defense did look a bit better though, and they should get Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back soon.


4.) Chicago Bears  (8-4  =  294-198)

Another game they should have won. It comes down to this, if they win their Week 15 game at home against the Packers, they can hold onto the division, and maybe even still get a bye. On the other side, they could drop to the #6 seed because the Seahawks have the head-to-head over the Bears. Jay Cutler looked good, but for the second time in three games, the defense looked a little slow.


The Three Teams that will Most Likely Get to New Orleans, but are Far Less Sure Things than those Three in the AFC

3.) New York Giants  (7-5  =  321-243)

I still think the Giants pull together, finish 3-1 and win the division, but that was a tough and potentially devastating loss for the Giants. Their defense looked completely unable to stop the run, again. The Giants right now have to man up and go on a run, or they will blow a division they once led by two games. For a team that is used to stepping up in big moments, that was a failure.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (8-3-1  =  289-171)

I really wanted another tie for them. I would wonder if they tied both games if they could petition the NFL to just give the Rams and 49ers a win and a loss. Anyway, this is the first question to Jim Harbaugh's plan to go with Colin Kaepernick. His reasoning was the Kap had the "hot hand", and now that hand is no longer all that hot. My guess is he stick with Kaepernick, but that decision looks far more precarious now than it did last week.


1.) Atlanta Falcons  (11-1  =  317-229)

The NFC has now become way more muddled than the NFC, and it is because of that that I have the Falcons, the worst 11-1 team of all time, at #1. They still haven't lost a home game, and their defense has been solid all year long. Despite the gobs of people that will pick against them come divisional weekend, that will not be an easy place to play. They won't lose 48-21, I'll tell you that.


Playoff Projections

AFC

7.) Cincinnati Bengals  (10-6  -  vs DAL (W),  @ PHI (W),  @ PIT (L),  @ BAL (W))
******************
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (10-6  -  vs SD (W),  @ DAL (L),  vs CIN (W),  vs CLE (W))*
5.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5  -  vs TEN (W),  @ HOU (L),  @ KC (W),  vs HOU (W))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5  -  @ WAS (W),  vs DEN (L), vs NYG (W),  @ CIN (L)) 
3.) New England Patriots (12-4  -  vs HOU (L),  vs SF (L),  @ JAX (W), vs MIA (W))
2.) Denver Broncos  (13-3  -  @ OAK (W),  @ BAL (W), vs CLE (W), vs KC (W))
1.) Houston Texans (14-2  -  @ NE (W), vs. IND (W), vs MIN (W), @ IND (L))

* - Steelers get in over the Bengals because of head-to-head record (2-0)


NFC

6.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6  -  vs ARZ (W),  @ BUF (W),  vs SF (L),  vs STL (W))
5.) Green Bay Packers  (11-5  -  vs DET (W),  @ CHI (L),  vs TEN (W),  @ MIN (W))
4.) New York Giants  (10-6  -  vs NO (W),  @ ATL (W),  @ BAL (L),  vs PHI (W))
3.) San Francisco 49ers  (11-4-1  -  vs MIA (W),  @ NE (L),  @ SEA (W),  vs ARZ (W))
2.) Chicago Bears  (12-4  -  @ MIN (W),  vs GB (W),  @ ARZ (W),  @ DET (W))
1.) Atlanta Falcons (14-2  -  @ CAR (W),  vs NYG (L),  @ DET (W),  vs TB (W))


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10)  @  Cleveland Browns (4-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
15.) New York Jets (5-7)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) St. Louis Rams (5-6-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "What Actually Motivates the Teams in These Games" Sunday, with six teams, none of them with any realistic playoff chances (how bad are they: The Rams probably have the best chance). Anyway, the big stories are the Jets can string their fans along one more game, the Browns can actually get a three game win streak, and the Rams or Bills will have six wins.


13.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Miami Dolphins (5-7)  @  San Francisco 49ers  (8-3-1)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "If teams play games between a good team and a bad team, does it actually really happen?" Sunday, as I have really nothing to say about these teams. The Eagles have a little bit of momentum on offense, but the Eagles pass defense has been beyond atrocious since they fired Juan Castillo.


11.) Arizona Cardinals (4-8)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-5)  (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Denver Broncos (9-3)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-9)  (TNF - NLFN)
9.) Tennessee Titans (4-8)  @  Indianapolis Colts (8-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Chicago Bears (8-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Divisional Games are Always Either Really Interesting, or Really Disappointing, and this Weekend Will Prove It" Sunday. Here we have four divisional games where one team is good and the other isn't. The Cardinals will look to avoid a 9th straight loss, and Ryan Lindley will look to avoid being the worst QB imagineable again. The Broncos get a short week, which could be tricky, I guess. The Colts look to essentially clinch a playoff spot, and the Bears look to keep pace with the Packers before their Week 15 game.


7.) San Diego Chargers (4-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (11-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "If Trap Games are Real, Here are Two of Them" Sunday, as the Steelers, hopefully with Roethlisberger back for the game, get a reeling Chargers team. The Steelers have generally owned the Chargers during the Rivers era in San Diego, but there is always a chance for things to change. The Falcons passed another test, and get another one here against a semi-dangerous Panthers team who came within one bomb to Roddy White of beating Atlanta in Atlanta.


5.) Dallas Cowboys (6-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)  (1:00 - FOX)   

I call it "Battle of the Wild Card Hopefuls" Sunday, as both teams look to keep pace in teh Wild Card race. The Cowboys are further away, having lost to Seattle earlier in the season (and Chicago, if they continue to fall), but are playing well right now. The Bengals are playing really well, and have dominated their last two home games. This is a type of game the Bengals should win, and they need to as that Week 16 game looms larger and larger.


4.) New Orleans Saints (5-7)  @  New York Giants (7-5)  (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Detroit Lions (4-8)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-4)  (SNF - ESPN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (9-3)  @  Washington Redskins (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

Keeping Pace is important, and all these three better teams have to. The Giants have historically been awful against teh Saints during the Brees era, including giving up 48 and 49 points to the Saints in their last two meetings. Both of those games were against better Saints teams in the Superdome, though. The Lions should have beaten the Packers (just like they should have beaten the Texans and Colts) three weeks ago, and get a shot to return the favor here, and the Ravens look to keep their two-game lead, and outside shot at a bye, over the Steelers. That is also a nice rivalry game, and for the first time, the Redskins really have something to bring to the table with RGIII.


1.) Houston Texans (11-1)  @  New England Patriots (9-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

And now we get to the best game of the Week, and at least on paper going in, one of the best games of the year. If the Texans win this game, just give them the #1 seed. They would be 12-1, have a two game lead over the rest of the conference, and have a head-to-head win over the Patriots, Broncos and Ravens. The Patriots, with a win, would be in striking distance of stealing that #1 seed, and put them in great position to hold onto at least the #2 seed. It should be a contrast in styles. Pass-heavy teams have done well against Houston, but they should have Jonathan Joseph back, which should help.


Award Watch

Coach of the Year

3.) Mike Smith (ATL)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Lovie Smith (CHI)

I'm not sure if an interim has ever won the award, so I'm not putting Bruce Arians here. I have Lovie Smith on top just because of how good his defense has been, but Kubiak and Smith have good shots as they lead the best teams in a weak year overall for miracle stories.


DROTY

3.) Chandler Jones (DE - NE - 6 sacks, 3 FF, 18 Tackles)
2.) Janoris Jenkins (CB - STL -3 INTs, 2 FRs, 3 TDs, 44 Tackles)
1.) Lavonte David (OLB - TB - 87 Tackles, 1 INT, 3 FF)

All three players are in different situations right now. Chandler Jones, who is currently hurt, has cooled off recently, while Janoris Jenkins has three TDs in the last two games. In the end, I'm placing the most consistent player at the top, as Lavonte David has been key in helping the Buccaneers become the league's best run defense.


OROTY

3.) Doug Martin (RB - TB -236 rush, 1,106 yards, 4.7 y/r, 9 TDs, 32 rec, 374 yds)
2.) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS -
1.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND - 279/503 (55.5%), 3,596 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs, 5 rush TDs)

The two QBs are now taking over (I guess Russell Wilson is there too, but he inherited a better team). For right now, because of their better record (by two games), their close wins and his great performance in close games, I'm going with Luck, who is asked to do more, throw deeper, and carry a worse team, over RGIII.


DPOTY

3.) Charles Tillman (CB - CHI - 2 INTs, 2 TDs, 2 FRs, 8 FFs, 58 Tackles)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN - 15.0 Sacks, 5 FFs, 1 INT, 1 TD, 44 Tackles)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)

Tillman is holding onto that last spot, but Aldon Smith (who is still a sack machine but with little else) from his early season performance, with TDs, and a ridiculous amount of forced fumbles. Von Miller has been great getting to the passer, dominant against the run, and now with a game-changing interception. In the end, though, JJ Watt is having one of the greatest seasons ever for a 3-4 DE. He is now not #1 in sacks (but just 2 behind Aldon), but still incredibly high at Passes Defensed for a lineman, and dominant against the rush.


OPOTY

3.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET - 86 Rec, 1,428 yards, 119.0 y/g, 5 TDs)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)

Peyton gets the nod for being the best QB so far, but the top two are having incredible years. Calvin is on pace to beat Jerry Rice's record for Yards in a season. His TD numbers are down, but that is mostly because the Lions are using him almost as a decoy in the red zone. I'm giving it to Peterson right now, though, because he's come back from ACL surgery and having his best year yet. He has a legitimate shot at 2,000 yards. He has no passing game to relieve pressure off of him, but he's continued to play extremely well.


MVP

5.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE - 298/460 (64.8%), 3,537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.6 RAT)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB- 279/414 (67.4%), 3,124 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs, 105.0 RAT)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)

Peterson makes the list because he is the sole reason the Vikings are even close to the Wild Card hunt. Watt gets there because he is the best player on the league's best team, and he's having the biggest impact of any defensive player that I've seen in years. The top three are the league's best three QBs. I have Brady behind the other two because he has the best talent around him of the three, and a reliable running game. Rodgers has had to go through incredible upheaval at the receiver position and a weak o-line (he doesn't help matters), and still been very good. In the end, Manning gets it right now for having almost as good stats (in some ways, better), and doing it on a new team with new weapons, and completely changing the franchise in Denver.


More to come later in the Week.

NFL 2012: Week 13 Picks

After next week, each team will have played 12 games, officially meaning that the NFL has entered the home-stretch. With that comes a real look at the MVP, and playoff seeding. What I'm really saying is that there will be changes to the format of the Power Rankings column. But that is for another time. Let's get to Week 13 picks.

Actually, before we do that, let's stop and first let me explain that after losing a couple of these picks because I didn't buy a half point or point, I'm going to start pretending to bet fake money. To make it easy, I'm placing 1,000 fake dollars on each game. I'm also pretending I have done that on every game so far, and I am using a fake system where I am laying an additional 20% to buy half a point, and an additional 30% to buy a full point. I am assuming no vig (hooray!!). So, this season, I have gone 98-75-3 so far through 11 weeks, and assuming no vig and 1,000 per bet, I am up a tidy $23,000 (BOOM!!). Starting this week, I'm going to keep track, and indicate if I am actually buying a half point or full point (which I would rarely do).


OK, now let's get to those picks.


New Orleans Saints (5-6)  @  Atlanta Falcons (10-1)  (ATL -3)

If the Saints were a little better, this might have been the best TNF game of the year. Instead, the Saints come in after a harrowing loss, while the Falcons are coming in slightly banged up, with Asante Samuel in doubt. Anyway, the game is probably more meaningful for the Saints who have some sliver of a Wild Card hope at this point, but the Falcons would love to finally get a win in this rivalry again. To me, this line is really low. The Falcons are definitely not as good as their record, but the Saints aren't exactly better than a .500 type team. Other than their close win against the Falcons, they've beaten zero good teams this season, and the last two times they played a good team, they lost by double digits (@DEN, vs. SF). This line essentially means that Vegas sees the teams as equals (three point bump for the home Falcons), and I completely disagree.

Saints 24  Falcons 31  (ATL -3)


Seattle Seahawks (6-5)  @  Chicago Bears (8-3)  (CHI -3.5)

Another line that seems staggeringly low. The Bears, in which Jay Cutler played the whole game, are 8-1, and have given up 20 or more points just twice (and both needed D/ST TDs to get there). The Seahawks don't travel particularly well to places not named Carolina (losses in all their other road games). Russell Wilson has never faced a defense like this outside of San Francisco, where he played badly. Jay Cutler also hasn't fared well against great defenses, but he doesn't have to do much in this one.

Seahawks 13  Bears 23  (CHI -3.5)


Minnesota Vikings (6-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (7-4)  (GB -9)

This is a high line for a team that, outside of their shock blowout win over Houston, hasn't looked too convincing in winning any of their games. They are still listing a bunch of people as questionable for the game. It is hard to project who plays or not, but I actually don't think against a team like Minnesota it matters too much. The Packers are definitely a better team, but the Vikings have two things that can help them keep this one close. They have a great running game and ball control pass offense that can hold the ball (what they did last year in the home game against Green Bay), and they have a rejuvenated pass rush that can get to Rodgers. Will they be able to do both? I'm not sure. There are quite a few high lines, and a couple that I like less than this one, so I'll say the Packers don't cover.

Vikings 23  Packers 31  (MIN +9)


San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1)  @  St. Louis Rams (4-6-1)  (SF -7)

The Rams still haven't lost a divisional game, going 3-0-1 against their divisional opponents. They've won both their other two home divisional games. That all said, I like the 49ers here to win, but that number is what I'm worried about. The Rams have a defense that could give Kaepernick problems. I don't think Colin is the athlete (in terms of sack escapability) that Roethlisberger, Newton or even Vick in his day were, and the Rams could get to him. On the other side, the 49ers defense is on a roll right now, and I don't think Bradford will have anything close to a good game. Anyway, back to the number. The 7 scares me, so I will use, for the first time, my new fake power of buying half a point, and making the line San Francisco -7.5, and then taking the Rams.

Rams 20  49ers 27  (STL bought to +7.5)


Arizona Cardinals (4-7)  @  New York Jets (4-7)  (NYJ -4.5)

Are the Cardinals still starting Ryan Lindley? Yes, they are. Are the Jets still starting Tim Tebow? Yes, they are. This might be the worst combined QB game of the year. I can't imagine the Jets playing any worse than they did on Thanksgiving, and they get extra rest against a Mountain Time team coming East to play an early game. Combining that with them starting Ryan Lindley, and I think the Jets give the Cardinals, amazingly, their eighth straight loss.

Cardinals 17  Jets 24  (NYJ -4.5)


Carolina Panthers (3-8)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)  (CAR -3)

The Chiefs have to win another game sooner or later, right? This can't just keep happening forever, them barely crossing 10 points at home game after game. Either way, I love the Panthers in this game. The Panthers, I'll say right now, are one of my picks to surprise and make the playoffs next year. Their string of losing close games is unsustainable, much like it was for the Texans from 2008-2010. That finally corrected itself, and this will too. Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats has them ranked #3 in the NFL by his metrics. Their defense is playing well now, and their offense is still good. They are better than the Chiefs, and this is a low number. That said, I will by half a point here, just to save myself from a field-goal push.

Panthers 31  Chiefs 17  (CAR bought to -2.5)


Indianapolis Colts (7-4)  @  Detroit Lions (4-7)  (DET -5)

I like way too many underdogs this week. I feel about the Lions much of the same way as I feel about the Panthers, in that they'll bounce back in 2013, as they are quite a bit better than their 4-7 record. Conversely, the Colts are worse than their 7-4 record. The Colts don't really need this game. If the take care of business home to Tennessee next week and at KC two weeks after that, they'll make the playoffs. The Colts don't match up well with the Lions, as they have no one to stop Calvin Johnson, and their interior line could be absolutely dominated by the Lions D-Line. The line is rather high, so I'll take the Colts to at least get to the number, but I doubt they win.

Colts 23  Lions 27  (IND +5)


Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)  @  Buffalo Bills (4-7)  (BUF -5.5)

I don't want to dwell on this too much, but I like the Jaguars, yes, the Jaguars, to be competitive and cover a line on the road. The Jaguars are a different team with Chad Henne leading them. I'll have to say that the problem with Justin Blackmon was more about Gabbert than himself. The Jaguars have a decent team, especially in Mo-Jo Drew comes back to life, and the Bills, to me, aren't good enough to lay this many point. The Bills are technically still alive, so they have much more to play for, so I think they win, but for a rejuvenated Jaguars team, that number is too high.

Jaguars 17  Bills 20  (JAX +5.5)

 
New England Patriots (8-3)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-6)  (NE -7)

The Patriots won't score 50. That is all I know. The only reason why I am not too concerned about this spate of Patriots scoring is again, it has happened against the Rams, Bills, Colts and Jets. They have real defenses coming up. The Pats can clinch here, and I would think they would be motivated to end the AFC East race heading into their two game gauntlet of Houston and San Francisco back-to-back. One quirky streak, the last three times the Pats and Dolphins played in Miami in December, the Dolphins won each time (2004, 2006, 2009). I don't think that streak reaches four, though.

Patriots 34  Dolphins 23  (NE -7)


Houston Texans (10-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-7)  (HOU -6)

This line seems a little easy. The Titans were essentially eliminated after losing to the Jaguars last week, and now face the best team in the NFL coming off of 10 days rest. The Texans have won all but one of their games by at least 6 (the only exception was last week in Detroit). They'll win the game, especially with a massive game coming up, and I think they will cover. The Texans rush defense has been great the past two weeks, and I think they will be able to shut down Chris Johnson. Jake Locker hasn't looked the same since he has returned from his injury. The Texans also have an offense that is really starting to click right now, and I think it continues.

Texans 31  Titans 16  (HOU -6)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)  @  Denver Broncos (8-3)  (DEN -7)

I'm surprised the line is this high, as the Buccaneers are everyone's favorite team right now, but it is high for a reason. The Broncos are a better team than the Buccaneers. Their biggest strength is their passing game, while the Buccaneers are historically bad at pass defense in terms of yards given up. The Buccaneers depend on their offense to keep them in games, and the Broncos defense is quietly a really good defense in 2012. I can't see the Buccaneers really giving the Broncos too much trouble in Denver, especially since they would love to show up and dominate after a slow game last week in Kansas City.

Buccaneers 17  Broncos 34  (DEN -7)


Cleveland Browns (3-8)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-8)  (CLE -1.5)

Now that Weeden is set to play, the Browns are the favorite. I don't disagree, because the Browns have played competitive in basically all of their games, while the Raiders have regressed to their 2003-2007 type performance. It is just sad thinking about this game. I would love picking the Raiders here, and there is a chance they show up, but the Browns defense is good enough to hold them down. McFadden might be back, but it probably won't matter.

Browns 23  Raiders 20  (CLE -1.5)


Cincinnati Bengals (6-5)  @  San Diego Chargers (4-7)  (CIN -1.5)

This seems like a low line, but I guess there isn't a lot of confidence in the Bengals traveling yet, while the Chargers are getting some credit for their close loss to the Ravens. The Chargers struggle to contain good receivers, and the Bengals have one of those, in AJ Green. The Bengals need this game way more than the Chargers, and they would love to take another step ahead of the Steelers before their game in three weeks. The line is low enough to make it close to a pick here.

Bengals 27  Chargers 24  (CIN -1.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-2)  (BAL -8.5)

Roethlisberger has been officially been ruled out, which makes this line really high and more interesting. Unpredictably, the Ravens beat a Leftwich-led Steelers team by three in Heinz Field two games ago. The Steelers really just can't compete with the Ravens without Ben, especially in M&T Bank Stadium. The last time the Steelers visited the place was Week 1 in 2011, and lost 35-7. The Ravens can essentially end the division right now, and make the Steelers path to the playoffs far more precarious, and I think they do. This is a great chance for the Ravens to just blowout an opponent for once, go to 10-2 and still defy all the people that say they aren't any good.

Steelers 10  Ravens 24  (BAL -8.5)


Philadelphia Eagles (3-8)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-6)  (DAL -10)

I am still mad at NBC for sticking with this game. What complete garbage. I hope no one watches. I hope it is a complete blowout. That said, the Eagles offense at least looked competent against Carolina, who's defense really isn't any worse than the Cowboys. This line is really high for the Cowboys. I don't really trust the Cowboys with a line this high, but I find it hard to really depend on the Eagles. That said, big national game, I feel like the Eagles show up a little bit.

Eagles 24  Cowboys 30  (PHI +10)


New York Giants (7-4)  @  Washington Redskins (5-6)  (NYG -2.5)

I wish they could switch this game and the other primetime NFC East game. The Giants @ Redskins is a lot better matchup, and the return leg of a very good 1st Leg in MetLife a month ago. The Giants do need this game because their schedule going forward is tougher than Washington's. The Giants offense is clicking again, and seeing how they played against the Packers, their defense should show up as well. I like the Giants in this game, because these primetime games are the ones that they really show up for, especially on the raod.

Giants 27  Redskins 21  (NYG -2.5)

Enjoy the Games!!

Stern and Jim Harbaugh See Stars

This is a two-part post, one each about two of the major issues going on right now in the two sports that are currently in-season (so... not about David Wright and BJ Upton signing large contracts).


.) David Stern vs. Gregg Poppovich

I rarely write about the NBA midseason. I generally find the first three months of the NBA season as a lazy, slow drive on inner roads on the way to the highway that is the post-All Star Break of the NBA season, but what the Spurs did yesterday, and the reaction by David Stern forced me to. Here is a commissioner I have never really liked, a man who has overlooked the NBA becoming a star-drive and star-coddling league, a league dominated by the tenet of having one great player, with teamwork shunned for great individual talents, something I fear the NFL is becoming with team's reliance on QBs. David Stern is hailed as a genius of a commissioner, but I've never seen it, and his decision to basically announce he will punish the Spurs for resting Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili (and Danny Green, but nowhere cares about that) is simply the latest misstep by Stern.

I have many problems with Stern's statement, but first is it is entirely phony. He claims that this is about the fans, but directly it is about TNT and the National TV Deals. TNT pays a ton of money to broadcast NBA games once (and sometimes twice) a week. This was a marquee game anyway, but it was on a Thursday on TNT, when no other game was on. It was a matchup of the two teams that have dominated their conferences the last two seasons (the Spurs only in the regular season). Poppovich ruined the face of that specter by sending his top guys home (I'll leave out for now that the Spurs 'B' team played really well and it was a very good game). Stern didn't like it, but there is only one explanaion: because TNT didn't like it.

Gregg Poppovich has done this before. Three times last season he sat his Big Three, including once in Portland and once in Utah, both games that ended 11-game win streaks. Poppovich was faced with the second day of a back-to-back, and the last day of four games in five days, and the last game of a six-game road trip, and a showdown with 11-2 Memphis coming on Saturday, and made the decision to rest his guys in a game that easily could have been a loss anyway. Stern only cares about any of this because he did it for a National Game.

There is some legitimacy to that. It is the TNT & ESPN/ABC deals that really makes a sport like the NBA profitable, but then again, this is one game. I seriously doubt the ratings dropped that much, as this is still football season. I don't think many casual fans watch NBA during these months (especially head-to-head against a particularly enticing NFL game), and my guess is many fans may have started watching just to see Patty Mills, Nando De Colo (who looks the exact opposite of what his name makes you think he looks) and Corey Joseph, play with the Heat for 46 minutes. But Stern didn't come out and say that it was about TNT, but said it was about the fans, and that is just wrong.

If the Spurs did this the night before in Orlando, would it have been about the fans then? No, just like it wasn't about the fans when Poppovich did it in Portland and Utah last year. Just like it wasn't about the fans when other teams did it. By claiming it is about the fans, Stern is essentially saying that the Miami fans are more important to please than the Magic/Blazers/Jazz fans. However, the bigger issue is, what Poppovich did is smart, it works, and it isn't anything that Stern actually has the power to do anything about.

David Stern may hate it, but what Poppovich did was smart, it works, and even if it doesn't, there is no way the commissioner should have power to tell a team what to do about their players in terms of game management. Roger Goodell faced this issue in 2009, when a ton of teams rested starters in Week 17. He brought up a potential idea to reward the teams that wouldn't rest their players, but he quickly took it away. He was smart, Stern's actions were not.

Instead of focusing on the Spurs giving away a November game, maybe he should look at himself and his league. He is overseeing a league that is quickly becoming highly polarized between large, rich areas that are attempting to assemble Super-teams, like Miami and Los Angeles. So many people complain that the NBA is dominated by these big-market teams, that smaller areas, and boring areas that can't attract premium free agent talent, and the Spurs are the one exception.

 Instead of praising a team for its brilliant year-to-year management, for extending their period of dominance well longer than anyone could have imagined, for having the smarts to manage and older core and keep them healthy for the playoffs, Stern decides to villainize them. David Stern should use the Spurs as the one shining gem of his system, as evidence that there is hope for the Milwaukee's and Utah's, but instead he chooses to do what he always does, only care about the marketibility of the big teams that dominate his league way too much.


2.) Kaepernick vs. Smith

Now we get to the other big debate of the last two weeks, which, despite Harbaugh's strange comments that both his QB are starting Quarterbacks, has essentially ended with Jim Harbaugh picking Colin Kaepernick. While I didn't like the decision last week and that ended well, I still don't like the decision, and there are quite a few reasons.


A.) There is no evidence that Colin Kaepdernick is playing any better than what Smith was doing.

Jim Harbaugh claimed after the Bears game that he would "go with the guy with the hot hand," and then repeated that same phrase when ultimately choosing Kaepernick this week because "he has a hot hand." Well, the last time we saw Alex Smith in a full game, he went 18-19 for 232 yards and 3 TDs with no picks against the Arizona Cardinals in Arizona. QBs have averaged a 74.3 passer rating against the Cardinals, and it would be lower if you take out Smith's game, and Alex Smith was great. Smith also has mobility, which I feel like many forget when talking about Kaepernick. Smith has been incredibly accurate all season, and accuracy at this point is not Kaepernick's strength. There just is no evidence that Kaepernick, right now, is any better. Sure, Kaepernick might have more potential (let's remember that there is a reason that Alex Smith was the #1 overall pick, while Kaepernick was a 2nd rounder), but who is the better QB right now? Alex Smith was just as good, and the last time we saw him, he was better than Kaepernick. Alex Smith can run that offense. Another claim people mention about Kaepernick is that the 49ers need him if they want to beat the Packers/Giants and the other Big Boys of the NFC. Of course, this forgets the fact that a Smith-led offense dominated Green Bay in Week 1. Also, I have serious doubts that Kaepernick would have made the 49ers any better in their loss to the Giants this year.


B.) The Negative Concussion Externality

Let's be clear, if Alex Smith doesn't suffer a concussion against the Rams, Colin Kaepernick is still the starting QB. Everyone agrees on this. Of course, you could have said the same thing about Drew Bledsoe, who lost his job because of injury to Brady, and then got healthy by mid-year. The one difference there is in his previous 1+ year, Bledsoe was 5-13 as a starter. Alex Smith was 19-5. Alex Smith has essentially been benched because he got a concussion. The NFL has a serious concussion fight on its hand, and one of the biggest steps is admitted and fixing the problem in diagnoses, in making it harder for players to lie about not having a concussion, to hiding their symptoms, and this is a huge blow to that. Other players that aren't the most secure in their positions have seen a precedent, have seen a player been benched long term because he got concussed. If they feel that their coach could follow that precedent, it sets up incredible incentives to hide symptoms, to play through a concussion. I have heard this angle mentioned a couple times, but it should be repeated. While the NFL faces their largest medical issue since the days players routinely died, a head coach of an NFL team just undermined that effort by benching a player because he had the gall to get a concussion.


C.) Harbaugh is Messing With Camelot

The 49ers were once deemed as Camelot in the DeBartolo/Walsh/Montana/Rice days, and there is truth that this current ressurection of the 49ers is just as fun. They have a dominant defense with a slew of great players playing really well. They have a multi-faceted offense that uses every ounce of talent from their varied weapons, including making guys like Kendall Hunter, Delanie Walker and Michael Crabtree into matchup nightmares. And it was all centered around their gem of a coach, but now the coach is really messing with the chemistry. It could work great. Keapernick could be better than Smith ever would have been. But this team isn't building for 2015. They are built for right now. They have the 2nd best record over the past 1.7 seasons (21-5-1, a half game behind the 22-5 Packers). Their defense has a lot of youth (Aldon Smith, Bowman, Brooks) but also some age (Justin Smith, Whitner, Rogers). They are perfectly situated to win right now, and does Kaepernick make their chances of winning right now higher than Smith? Maybe he does, but this is a huge risk, and here, the conventional, risk averse approach (going with Smith) was absolutely defensible, and a proven approach. It is obvious that Harbaugh was never really tied to Alex Smith. He openly (although later tried to hide) went after Peyton in the offseason, but settled back for Smith. Well, Smith responded playing great football, save for one bad performance against the Giants. But Harbaugh got his out, he got his chance to go with the guy he drafted, and so far it has worked. I just worry that it won't work in January, and then he might have to face some scrutiny for the first time in his tenure.

NFL 2012: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

Finally a good week. If only I actually did "buy a half point", I could have avoided two pushes, but without actually putting (fake) money, "buying a point" makes no sense in this situation. Anyway, a good week nonetheless.

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Texans (-3)  over  Lions  (PUSH  =  0-0-1)
Redskins (+3)  over  Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  1-0-1)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Patriots (-7)  over  Jets  (CORRECT  =  2-0-1)
Bengals (-8)  over  Raiders  (CORRECT  =  3-0-1)
Colts (-2)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  4-0-1)
Steelers (pick)  over  Browns  (WRONG  =  4-1-1)
Broncos (-10)  over  Chiefs  (WRONG  =  4-2-1)
Jaguars (+3)  over  Titans  (CORRECT  =  5-2-1)
Bears (-6.5)  over  Vikings  (CORRECT  =  6-2-1)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-1)  over  Buccaneers  (PUSH  =  6-2-2)
Dolphins (+3)  over  Seahawks  (CORRECT  =  7-2-2)
Chargers (+1)  over  Ravens  (WRONG  =  7-3-2)
Rams (+2.5)  over  Cardinals  (CORRECT  =  8-3-2)
49ers (-1)  over  Saints  (CORRECT  =  9-3-2)
Giants (-3)  over  Packers  (CORRECT  =  10-3-2)
Panthers (-2)  over Eagles  (CORRECT  =  11-3-2)

Week 12: 11-3-2  (LOCK: 1-0;  UPSET: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 98-73-5  (LOCK: 10-2;  UPSET: 9-3)

Best Picks: Nothing exact. Closest was picking the Jaguars to beat the Titans 24-20 (they won 24-19). Other close ones were picking the Colts to win 23-17 (they won 20-13), picking the Falcons to win 30-23 (they won 24-23) or picking the 49ers to beat the Saints 27-20 (they won 31-21).


Power Rankings


Their Team MVP: The College Scouting Director Planning the 2013 Draft

32.) Kansas City Chiefs  (1-10  =  161-301)

I still love how bad the Chiefs offense is, and it isn't even Matt Cassel's fault anymore. Whatever happened to breakout candidate Jonathan Baldwin? Do people realize that the Chiefs QBs have thrown 6 TDs and 16 INTs this season? Do people remember just how many people picked the Chiefs to win the AFC West this year? 4 out of ESPN's 16 experts picked them, which is four too many.


31.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-8  =  184-282)

They have a realistic chance of finishing the season 3-13, with road games still against Dallas, Tampa and the Giants sandwhiching home games against wild-card hopefuls Cincinnati and Washington. Other than the Giants potentially resting in Week 17, all of those teams are both better than the Eagles and have something to play for. All in all, this could be a sad end to the Andy Reid era.


30.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-9  =  188-308)

It is amazing how competent the Jaguars are when Blaine Gabbert is not playing. Chad Henne continues to be a respectable NFL QB, a guy who is still better than Mark Sanchez (something I claimed back in mid-2009). The Jaguars defense finally showed up as well. Word is Maurice Jones-Drew might finally be resurrected this week, which is nice to know.


29.) Oakland Raiders  (3-8  =  218-356)

That defense continues to be just atrocious, and the lack of running options is finally catching up to that offense. Darren McFadden might be back next week, but it won't matter much. Totally random thought, but how does Marcel Reese continue to get open all the time as a passing threat? Barely anyone on that Raiders team can do anything, yet he somehow finds a way to contribute each week.


28.) Tennessee Titans  (4-7  =  238-335)

The Titans had a slim chance at the playoffs, but that door slammed shut. They probably aren't the worst four win team by as great a margin, but they still have two more wins than they should have. They can still play spoiler though, with games against Houston and Indianapolis left. I'll curse them if they derail Indy's shot at the playoffs with a garbage win in two weeks.


27.) New York Jets  (4-7  =  221-290)

Three TDs allowed in 52 seconds?? There are no words....


26.) Buffalo Bills  (4-7  =  243-319)

That was a decent performance in Indy, but like so many of the Colts opponents this year, they couldn't finish drives. I have no idea how a team could get over 6 yards per play and get decent field position, yet score just 13 points. Good to see that Mario Williams isn't going to totally check out after getting that contract, as he was a terror for the first time in a while.


25.) Carolina Panthers  (3-8  =  214-265)

The Panthers have a chance to pick up some wins, and save Ron Rivera's job in the process. Their toughest game left is a home date against the Falcons, while they have trips to KC, San Diego and New Orleans, and another home game against the Raiders. 6-10 is not out of the question, which would probably leave the Panthers pretty happy, considering how disastrous much of this season has been.


24.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-7  =  180-227)

Seven straight losses, a third straight QB. I still believe Ken Whisenhunt is a good coach, and if a team has a QB, he would be a great hire (hello, San Diego??), but here's just a list of the people that have attempted to take hold of the QB job since Kurt Warner left: Kevin Kob, John Skelton, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, Ryan Lindley.


23.) Miami Dolphins  (5-6  =  211-226)

They won the game and kept their playoff hopes alive, but can we talk about that whole sprinkler incident. The Dolphins definitely played better after it. Are we sure that wasn't planned? Why so quick to assume it was a mistake by the groundscrew?


22.) Cleveland Browns  (3-8  =  209-248)

I would love to see some work done on how the team that underperforms their pythagoreon projected win total and how they do the next year. I feel like I have seen such and usually that team improves. Case in point was the 2008 Wildcat Dolphins, who were much better than the 1-15 they were in 2007. Anyway, the Browns are a fully decent team. Too bad they are going in a new direction in terms of the GM, and almost inevitably, the coach.


21.) Dallas Cowboys  (5-6  =  242-262)

I've never seen a team that I'm more confident will make a game out of a 20-point deficit, but also equally confident in their ability to still lose that game. That was so expected. Romo piles up big numbers after playing like garbage, but they still lose anyway. It was just extra special that once again it happened at home, and once again in primetime.


20.) San Diego Chargers  (4-7  =  245-237)

Despite my thinking that Ray Rice was down before the first-down line, they don't even deserve the real call in that case. How they continue to search, and find, new ways to lose games is mesmerizing. The Chargers should have won that game, and the Broncos and Patriots fans are cursing them for not finishing the damn job.


19.) Detroit Lions  (4-7  =  267-280)

Despite their record, I feel like they can still beat any team at any time. Calvin Johnson is still unstoppable (outside of the red zone), and that defense can dominate any game, but they just aren't able to close it out. The Lions are better than their record, and they are still young at most positions. I hope there is no reactionary changes this offseason in Detroit. 


18.) St. Louis Rams  (4-6-1  =  205-254)

Sam Bradford continues to have the most impressive under-50% completion percentage games I have ever seen (vs and @ ARZ). Janoris Jenkins had another good game, and the Rams continue to be undefeated in that division (3-0-1). The Rams are still young, and Fisher has a plan, but I don't know if Bradford can ever get good enough to make this a Super Bowl caliber team.


The Bad Good Team

17.) Indianapolis Colts  (7-4  =  230-273)

I'm done putting them up high in the rankings purely because of their record. In the end, they still have a team that is good enough to beat any bad team in the NFL. They also have no way of beating good teams other than a mysterious, karmically affected game against Green Bay. Do you know what that reminds me of: the 2011 Cincinnati Bengals, a rookie-QB-led team that were 9-0 against non-playoff teams and 0-7 against playoff teams.


The Great NFC Wild Card Mess of 2012

16.) New Orleans Saints  (5-6  =  308-304)

The Saints finally showed their true selves. They still have beaten one good team all year, which was a close win against Atlanta at home. In their last two big games outside of that, they were smacked around by Denver and San Francisco. The Saints have suffered so much on their o-line since last season and it showed yesterday.


15.) Washington Redskins  (5-6  =  295-285)

RGIII alternates from great games to bad games way more than Luck (who is consistently decent all the time), and last week was one of his great games. They have a huge game upcoming, where if they win they could have a shot at the NFC East, but it would be nice to see RGIII have a good game against a good defense and good pass rush.


14.) Minnesota Vikings (6-5  =  248-249)

That was Week 1 of a six-game jaunt through Hell for the Vikings, as they still have another game against the Bears, and two against Green Bay, and a trip to Houston included as well. The Vikings were competent in that game, but turnovers screwed them. The Bears did expose again how limited Christian Ponder is, a fact that may be exposed quite a few more times.


13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-5  =  310-254)

Tough loss there, and they have a huge trip to Denver coming up, a team they don't really match up with all. The Buccaneers are still in the thick of the hunt, especially if they can beat the Saints in their remaining game, but the Buccaneers need to play better defensively. Teams just pass over them at will, and they will go nowhere long term until they fix it.


12.) Seattle Seahawks  (6-5  =  219-185)

They will rue that loss, as well as the loss earlier to Detroit, and it could easily keep them out of the playoffs. They still have the h2h win over the Packers, and that was a non-conference loss, but the Seahawks are now on the tightrope, especially if they lose Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner for four games. Russell Wilson, and the rest of that defense, is still playing well enough to nab that last spot, though.


2 Teams, 1 Spot: A Rivalry Renewed


11.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (6-5  =  231-210)

Before the Ravens Rebirth under Harbaugh/Flacco, the Steelers and Bengals were a nasty rivalry. The intensity isn't there, but the Steelers and Bengals are rivals for that last playoff spot. The Steelers probably won't win even if Ben is playing, but if Roethlisberger is there for the last four games, I like their chances to get that final spot, and be a potentially dangerous team in Wild Card Weekend.


10.) Cincinnati Bengals  (6-5  =  282-247)

Has there been a more Jekyll and Hyde than the Bengals this year? They had a three game losing streak to Miami, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, but then dominated the Giants, Chiefs and Raiders the last two weeks. The Bengals have the talent, and the opening. It really all comes down to that Week 16 game in Cincinnati, but they have a shot to take care of business these next three weeks to make that game a lot more comfortable.


The Super Bowl Players

9.) Green Bay Packers  (7-4  =  273-245)

That was the worst game in the Aaron Rodgers era. The only thing that comes close is a 29-51 loss to New Orleans in 2008 in the Superdome. It was clear they couldn't block, but even when teh Giants rushed three, Rodgers had nothing downfield. The injuries might be catching up on the offense. They should start to get guys back, and they could do what they did in 2010, but that offense just isn't the same.


8.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-2  =  283-219)

How are they 10-2? You know what they remind me of? A slightly more offense heavy and slightly less defense heavy version of the 2003 Patriots, who started 2-2 and then rolled off 12 straight wins despite rarely looking that dominant. The Ravens still don't have a fully healthy Suggs or Ngata, yet they continue to play good enough defense. Also, converting a 4th and 29 is the type of bullshit the 2001-2004 Patriots used to pull all the time.


7.) New York Giants  (7-4  =  305-226)

Is there any team that can get up for games like the Giants? I can't think of any good comparison in any other sport, really, for a team that is never that great in the regular season, but just dominant in these types of games. That said, the Packers were the perfect matchup, a team missing o-lineman, with no running game, and little in the secondary. That was the recipe for a blowout, yet it was still impressive.


6.) Atlanta Falcons  (10-1  =  294-216)

Just remember, if Matt Bryant hits his two field goals, they win a little more comfortably. They definitely looked like the better team on Sunday, and that was a big game, going to a good divisional rival and beating them. The Falcons still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they have another chance to quiet some more doubters two weeks from now against the Giants.


5.) Denver Broncos  (8-3  =  318-221)

I'm dropping them a bit after a slow performance against Kansas City, but if Matt Prater hits two makeable field goals, it is 23-9, which is a little better (plus, a cover). The Broncos were able to win a game on the road with their 'C' game, which is not a bad thing, but that game better get better against better competition, which they'll face in the playoffs.


4.) New England Patriots  (8-3  =  407-244)

I'm moving them up after two straight blowouts, but they aren't as good as the team they looked like the past two wees, just like they weren't as bad as the team that nearly lost to the Bills the week before that. Tom Brady is in another interception-free streak, like 2010, which hopefully will end in a shriek-inducing pick on a screen-pass, much like 2010.


3.) Chicago Bears  (8-3  =  277-175)

It is astounding what a different Jay Cutler makes to that team. He isn't a great QB, but if anyone, and I mean you Jason Whitlock, tries to assert that Cutler isn't tough, they should lose their job. The guy is behind a pathetic o-line, and makes the Bears offense competent. Good to see that defense back to their turnover-creating ways. Cutler's injury lost their chance at a bye, but they still have their division lead back. They need to hold onto that thing.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (8-2-1  =  276-155)

I don't know if I'm totally wrong about the Kaepernick move yet, but the 49ers aren't any worse with him. My concern is he has a bad game in the playoffs, but Alex Smith could also have a bad game in the playoffs. What is good is that pass rush has heated up the last few weeks, outside of Aldon Smith, who has been great all year long. That is great for a team that is still in an offense-heavy conference.


1.) Houston Texans  (10-1  =  327-211)

They played nearly 10 quarters of football in five days, and went 2-0. They have some of the best wins this year (beating Denver in Denver, killing Baltimore), and have had just one bad game. Andre Johnson is clearly healthy and dominant once again, and that offense just seems different now. They still have some challenges left, including what could be a huge game in New England in two weeks, but they are still in good position to win the #1 seed in the AFC.


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Carolina Panthers (3-8)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)  (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)  @  Buffalo Bills (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Arizona Cardinals (4-7)  @  New York Jets (4-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cleveland Browns (3-8)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-8)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Who Gives a Shit" Sunday. These are the only three games with absolutely no playoff implications (one coming up has minimal). None of these teams are going anywhere. It is good, actually, in a way that they have to play each other, instead of ruining other games.


12.) Houston Texans (10-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1)  @  St. Louis Rams (4-6-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New England Patriots (8-3)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Don't Look Past It Sunday", with three divisional games where the road team has a 1st-Round Bye (or in Houston's case, the #1 seed) on their mind, but absolutely cannot drop this game. Divisional games some times are tough. The Texans have usually done well in Tennessee, but the Rams have been fiesty at home against their divisional opponents, and the Patriots have alternated horrific (2004, 2006, 2009) and huge (2007, 2010, 2011) games in Miami. My guess is one of these games is much closer than the line.


9.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-6)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "I guess NBC ONLY cares about money", as they have failed to use thier flex right's to switch out a game between two sub-.500 teams. They've done this before, keeping a game with the Eagles and Cowboys late in 2010 in this spot. At least that time the Eagles were fresh with Vick and an eventual division winner, but the Cowboys were missing Romo. There are definitely better options, including some that I am sure CBS or FOX did not block, like Tampa @ Denver. That said, all the seemingly good primetime games this season have been duds, so maybe this is an unexpected classic.


8.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-5)  @  San Diego Chargers (4-7)  (4:25 - CBS)
7.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4)  @  Detroit Lions (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (7-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Clear it or Fog it Up Sunday" as the Bengals, Colts and Packers have a chance to pull away in their Wild Card races. The Bengals best get a nice lead before a trip to Heinz Field in a few weeks. The Colts have to play the Texans twice, and I think way too many Colts fans are banking on the Texans having nothing to play for in Week 17. A Colts win in Detroit close to guarantees them a Wild Card spot. As for the final game, the Vikings continue their trek into real football, as they get the Packers for the first time. The Packers are vulnerable to good pass rushes, but the Vikings aren't really a team that can take advantage of the Packers defensive weaknesses.


5.) New Orleans Saints (5-6)  @  Atlanta Falcons (10-1)  (TNF - NFLN)
4.) New York Giants (7-4)  @  Washington Redskins (5-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "It Sure Looked a lot Better Last Week" Sunday. Had the Saints won, or Giants lost (or Falcons lost), yesterday, these would be two massive games. The Saints would have a shot to continue their unlikely jaunt back to the playoffs against a Falcons team still looking to beat their big brother again after four straight losses. The Giants, had they lost, would have just a one game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys, making their trip to Washington that much bigger. Instead, we only get slightly less entertaining storylines for the two good primetime games this week.


3.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5)  @  Chicago Bears (8-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)  @  Denver Broncos (8-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "What is the Bigger Motivating Factor" Sunday, as the Seahawks and Buccaneers are playing for their lives in teh Wild Card race, while the Broncos and Bears are playing for byes (or I guess in Chicago's case for the division, but it is unlikely they fall out of the playoffs altogether), The Bears and Broncos are better teams, and the Seahawks haven't traveled well, while the Buccaneers haven't really beaten a good team on the road yet, but these are games that both can drop. I doubt either do, but in a slow week all around, they still provide an intriguing matchup.


1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-2)  (4:25 - CBS)*

The asterisk is just to point out that if Roethlisberger is out, place this way back, because then the Steelers are entering the Gladiators Den on crutches. Anyway, for now I'll assume Ben Roethlisberger plays, which makes this game that much more fun. Much like the two above, this pits a team playing in the Wild Card hunt against a team looking for a bye. The Ravens can come really close to wrapping up the AFC North with a win here, and might even push the Steelers out of the playoffs.\


Projected Playoff Seedings

AFC

1.) Houston Texans (14-2)
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (12-4)
5.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

The Texans are still in the driver's seat, and if they take care of business, even a loss in New England wouldn't derail them (though it could derail the Colts, as then most likely Week 17 will be meaningful). I still think the Broncos run the table. At that point, they could do no worse than the #3 seed (with a h2h win over the at-best Ravens). I think the Pats drop one of their two games in six days stretch against the Texans and 49ers, but they could easily prove me wrong. The Ravens, amazingly, are 9-2 and are still in good position for the #2 seed, and their h2h win keeps them ahead of New England in any tiebreaker. The Colts are pretty solidly in, and with just two AFC losses so far, they are in good position to get tiebreakers, which I think they'll get in this case against Pittsburgh, who I feel wins their "win and in" game in Week 16 against Cincinnati.


NFC
 
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) San Francisco 49ers  (12-3-1)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)
4.) New York Giants (11-5)
5.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

The Falcons are in the drivers seat, and it is hard to see them falling too far. The 49ers still have just two losses, and I could see them stealing that #1 seed, but I think Keapernick will have a game where he plays bad enough to lose the game. The Bears are a really good team as long as Cutler is healthy, and the Giants are back. As for the Wild Cards, I think the Packers lose their game in Chicago, which ends their shot at the division. That probably leaves a meaningless (for them) Week 17 game in Minnesota. My guess is given the pounding Aaron Rodgers has taken, Mike McCarthy sits him if he can. The only change here is the Buccaneers going above the Seahawks. Some of this has to do with the Seahawks possibly losing Sherman and Browner for four games, and I think the Vikings, with their tough schedule coming up, falling off. I could see a team climbing back in it, but the Cowboys and Redskins I don't trust, and the Saints have a really tough schedule.