NFL 2012: Week 6 Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-2)  @  Tennessee Titans  (1-4)  (PIT -5.5)

These two teams were the #1-2 seeds in the AFC in 2008, my favorite regular season to date in my time watching football. They played the season opener the next season, which the Steelers won 16-13 in OT. Since then, the Steelers have kept up their great standing, while the Titans fluttered through different QBs and the entirety of the CJ2K era. Anyway, back to today's reality. The Titans are without Locker, still with Johnson and have a deteriorating defense and a coach that I don't trust. The Steelers have none of these things except for no Polamalu again. Luckily for them, the Titans have little offense these days and the Steelers should do fine. 

Steelers 27  -  Titans 16  (PIT -5.5)


Cincinnati Bengals  (3-2)  @  Cleveland Browns  (0-5)  (CIN -1)

I feel like this line is taunting me for overrating the Bengals before last week. That said, they are still good enough to beat bad teams. Cleveland isn't awful the way Tennessee and Jacksonville are, but that doesn't mean they are good either. They played three weeks ago and the Bengals won rather comfortably. The Browns defense was awful against the Giants and I could see some of the same problems creeping up here. That said, I don't think they'll go 0-16, and other than a three game stretch later, this is the Browns most winnable game, and it is at home. They get it done.

Bengals 24  -  Browns 27  (CLE +1)


Indianapolis Colts  (2-2)  @  New York Jets  (2-3)  (NYJ -3)

Some see the Jets performance on MNF, where they fought about as hard as they could, as a sign that they were back. I saw it differently, a sign that they were desperate, still lost and this might be a let down off of a short week. Of course, the Colts might be ready for a letdown after their emotional, incredible win. As for the game itself, the Colts just lost Donald Brown, who had been running decently, but the Jets have an awful rush defense anyway. The Jets also don't have much of a pass rush so Luck might have time, a luxury he hasn't had in any game so far other than against Jacksonville. Call me crazy, but I like the Colts here. There will still be some emotion for playing for Pagano (this is morbid, but unlike a death, the coach is still sick and recovering). The Jets have a short week. The Colts defense also looked alive for the first time. I can see that continuing.

Colts 23  -  Jets 20  (IND +3)


Kansas City Chiefs  (1-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)  (TB -3.5)

I can't stand even looking at this particular game. It just seems so, well, ugly. I realize there are about one of these a week, but this just seems so much worse. The matchup lacks any historical significance and they aren't that good now. I'm at a loss of who to pick and for what reason. If I was placing bets, I probably wouldn't touch this game, which doesn't even feature a value-line either way. At gunpoint, I'll take the team coming off the bye at home over the team that just lost a physical game against Baltimore, going on the road without their starting QB (even if Quinn is barely any worse).

Chiefs 16  -  Buccaneers 24  (TB -3.5)


Oakland Raiders  (1-3)  @  Atlanta Falcons  (5-0)  (ATL -8.5)

Does the bye week really mean that much? There is really no other reason I can think of for why the Falcons are only favored by 8.5 in this game. They are definitely better than Oakland, and get them at a 1PM start at home. The Raiders pass defense is awful. The Raiders offense is good, and they are as healthy as they have been, but then I can't see them keeping up. Again, with the lack of value in this line, I probably would stay away. I've been burned by the line before, so this time, I'll go with the people who know this stuff.

Raiders 24  -  Falcons 31  (OAK +8.5)


Dallas Cowboys  (2-2)  @  Baltimore Ravens  (4-1)  (BAL -3.5)

Another odd line. I guess the bye week theory is real. That said, the Cowboys aren't great after the bye, and the last three times they went on the road after the bye they lost. Baltimore is a tough place to play, lest we forget. The Ravens haven't lost a home game since a Week 14 loss to the Steelers back in 2010. Since then, they've won 12 straight, rarely being challenged (only thrice winning by less than a TD, against the Saints in 2010, a flukey comeback against Arizona last year, and the Patriots in Week 3 this year). They are better than Dallas. Their weakness is their defense (which is merely good instead of great) but the Cowboys have huge problems scoring right now. I don't like this pick because it seems too easy, but the line has great value. If I was betting, I would buy a point and bet the Ravens -2.5, but alas, this isn't Vegas.

Cowboys 17  -  Ravens 27  (BAL -3.5)


Detroit Lions  (1-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles  (3-2)  (PHI -4.5)

For the first time, I don't think this is a line that is low purely because the Lions are coming off a bye, but a signal from Vegas that they don't believe the Eagles are a good team, and I completely agree. The Lions aren't great either, but they get two weeks to prepare, and they must've been hammered in that time by Schwartz and company for blowing that Vikings game. What worries me about picking the Lions is that Nnamdi could do well against Calvin, but the Lions do have other weapons. I don't like picking them here, but that line for Philly is quite high. Good value here, and I can see the Lions d-line pounding Vick time and time again behind a porous o-line.

Lions 27  -  Eagles 24  (DET +4.5)


St. Louis Rams  (3-2)  @  Miami Dolphins  (2-3)  (MIA -3.5)

I get it, the Dolphins are a decent team. They will probably be hanging around competing for a Wild Card spot all season. But, so will the Rams. That defense has played well outside of St. Louis (even if they are 0-2 on the road), and they had 10 days to prepare. The Rams have the defense to shut down the resurgent Dolphins offense, but will they score enough points? Who knows. Bradford has been decent, but now he's without his security blanket in Amendola. I really have no idea where to go with this game, but I think the Rams are a better team, and they are used to playing 1PM games since that's when most of their home games are. I don't like the Dolphins at home. That place has no energy, and they often look lethargic.

Rams 20  -  Dolphins 17  (STL +3.5)

 
New England Patriots  (3-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks  (3-2)  (NE -3.5)

The Patriots have run for 500 yards over the last two weeks. Of course, one of the teams they played gave up 300 yards last week to San Francisco. The other was Denver, who was carved up by the other good run offense they played (Houston). The Seahawks are a different animal. They are a top-5 rush defense in every major basic category (yards, y/c), and in my choice advanced stat, ranking #3 in Football Outsiders's DVOA for rush defense. Their pass defense is no slouch, with one of the best secondaries and a good pass rush. That stadium will be a tough place. There is little chance the Patriots put up anything close to what they have on the ground the last two weeks. Also, lost in that rushing bonanza has been a regressing defense from a team that started out the year great on D. I can't see the Seahawks putting up a lot of points, but they'll make it competitive. Sadly, Vegas feels this way as well, and the line is lower than most Patriots games. Here's another case where I would buy the point and make it Pats -2.5

Patriots 24  -  Seahawks 20  (NE -3.5)


Buffalo Bills (2-3)  @  Arizona Cardinals  (4-1)  (ARZ -4.5)

The Bills finally get a chance on defense. They have the worst defense in the NFL, worse than the Saints. Their hyped D-Line can't stop the run at all. They have a hard time stopping the pass. That said, they get a team with an o-line that has played about as bad as any o-line can play the last two weeks, and a team with no run game that lost its top two runners. That all said, the Cardinals are still just a much better team. Their defense is for real, and while Fitzpatrick is good at getting the ball out quickly in that offense, they have the corners and cover guys to get some picks that Fitz will definitely throw them. While this is a better matchup for the Bills than NE or SF, they are still just not as good and playing on the road in a really tough place to win.

Bills 17  -  Cardinals 27  (ARZ -4.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


Minnesota Vikings  (4-1)  @  Washington Redskins  (2-3)  (WAS -2)

Obviously, this is a tough game to pick with the Griffin situation up in the air. He's been cleared, but he can easily take one hit and have his symptoms reoccur. (BTW, I love because it is a QB that I haven't heard one person question him being cleared just two days after his concussion). If he does play, that team is dangerous. They can upset Minnesota. Their defense has really stepped up the last two weeks after losing Orakpo and Carriker. Their run game is still humming. The Vikings also might have a harder time with their Special Teams on the road outside. At some point, the Vikings will have a game that resembles what they are: a good but far from great team. Better teams have dropped games to worse teams.

Vikings 23  -  Redskins 27  (WAS -2)


New York Giants  (3-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers  (4-1)  (SF -5)

This was the hardest game for me to pick. The high line screams taking the Giants. There is great value in picking a team that, with the exception of games in New Orleans, rarely gets beat by a touchdown or more. The Giants pass rush is a sleeping giant right now, and could explode in any given game. It easily could be this one. The 49ers are not as good as they've been the last two weeks because, frankly, no team is ever that good. There is a revenge factor for the 49ers from the NFC Title game, but also the Giants are notorious for showing up in big spots like this. Despite the 49ers explosion last week, I still don't think they have the pass game to take advantage of the Giants suspect secondary. Call it a hunch, and more than that, sticking with a team that has never started worse than 6-2 since 2004, Coughlin and Eli's first seasons in NYG.

Giants 27  -  49ers 24  (NYG +5)


Green Bay Packers  (2-3)  @  Houston Texans  (5-0)  (HOU -3.5)

Can I see the Packers at 2-4? Not really, but here we are. It could easily happen. They just aren't nearly as good offensively of last year. Some of that is natural regression from one of the most exact and efficient offenses ever. Some of it is Greg Jennings' injury (even if he plays against Houston, hard to see him at 100%). Some of it is the line playing worse than it has since 2009. Add it all up, and they are 2-3, and two of those losses are uncontroversially deserved. The Texans have zero losses and haven't yet trailed in the 2nd half. This is a tough spot for the Packers, against a team playing its first real huge primetime game at home. No one on the Packers can really block Watt, Barwin, Smith and Co. They have no running game to exploit a merely good rush defense. The Texans on the other side have the run game to exploit the Packers average rush defense, and the pass game to boot, with the o-line to slow Matthews. Just not a good matchup. I don't know who is against Houston.

Packers 20  -  Texans 30  (HOU -3.5) 


Denver Broncos  (2-3)  @  San Diego Chargers  (3-2)  (SD -2)

Even if the Broncos lose, I still think they make the playoffs. That schedule going forward is just so soft. That said, a win here would be huge. They would tie the Chargers at 3-3 with a head-to-head win in San Diego having just finished the toughest opening six games I can ever remember. Manning has actually been fantastic. What hasn't is their third down defense, which has been bad in every game apart from Atlanta and Oakland. The Chargers have been mediocre on 3rd down, and have no real running game. Finally, their o-line isn't looking too good, and neither are their corners. The Chargers 'owning' Manning wasn't really ever about Manning, but about 'owning' Saturday, the running game and the Colts defense. All those things are gone and this isn't a very good Charger team.

Broncos 31  -  Chargers 24  (DEN +2)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)

NFL 2012: Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

Not a great week, but not a bad one either.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Rams (+1.5)  over  Cardinals  (CORRECT  =  1-0)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-3)  over  Redskins  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
Eagles (+3.5)  over  Steelers  (CORRECT  =  3-0)
Packers (-7)  over  Colts  (WRONG  =  3-1)
Giants (-9)  over  Browns  (CORRECT  =  4-1)
Titans (+5.5)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  4-2)
Bengals (-3.5)  over  Dolphins  (WRONG  =  4-3)
Ravens (-6)  over  Chiefs  (WRONG  = 4-4)
Panthers (-3)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  4-5)
Bears (-6)  over  Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  5-5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers (-9.5)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  6-5)
Patriots (-7)  over  Broncos  (CORRECT  =  7-5)
Chargers (+3.5)  over  Saints  (WRONG  =  7-6)
Texans (-9)  over  Jets  (WRONG  =  7-7)

Week 5: 7-7 (Lock: 1-0;  Upset: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 44-32-1 (4-1;  4-0)

Best Picks: Nothing perfect this week. Closest was my pick of Patriots beating the Broncos 31-21, while they won 31-23. Nothing else was in the realm of close. Oh, and by the way, I once again missed the prime-time games, and am now 1-8 in the last three weeks, and 5-11 overall.


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (1-4  =  65-138)

Tennessee might be a worse team, and we'll get a good look when they meet later this season, but when you lose at home by 38, you deserve this spot. I realize the Bears are good, and so far three of the Jaguars losses are to teams a combined 13-2, but they've been utterly uncompetitive in their last three losses, and have a fluke 80-yard TD to thank for in their win. The defense is regressing. The offense still can't get anything going. Mike Mularkey 2.0 is going worse than 1.0.


31.) Tennessee Titans  (1-4  =  88-181)

I can't believe I'm not ranking a team with one fluke win (three return TDs) and four losses by 20+, but this is really picking one turd over a true whopper. The Titans have the league's most schizophrenic running back. Their defense cannot rush the passer or cover receivers. Matt Hasselbeck look's old out there. Mike Munchak someone got this team to 9-7 last year, but that was as much of a mirage as it seemed at the time.


30.) Kansas City Chiefs  (1-4  =  94-145)

Credit them for having a plan (run all the damn time) and sticking to it, and for playing very good defense. They still play hard for Romeo Crennel. But it is just hard to win a lot of games in the NFL with Matt Cassel, or now Brady Quinn, at quarterback. Also, screw the Chiefs fans for cheering when Cassel got hurt. That's an awful move from what is trumpeted up as a classy, dedicated fan base.


29.) Cleveland Browns  (0-5  =  100-139)

In each of the past two years, the league's last winless team wasn't all that bad, and ended with .500+ second halfs (2010 Bills, 2011 Dolphins). I think it is the same this year, but the Browns don't have that easy schedule those two had. They have two winnable games up next (vs CIN, @ IND) then a three game stretch late with (@ OAK, vs KC, vs WAS). Target those games for their wins.


28.) Buffalo Bills  (2-3  =  118-176)

Losing 52-28 after leading 21-7 to New England? Bad. Losing 45-3 and giving up 300 yards passing as well as 300 yards rushing? Historically bad. The Bills actually played substantially worse this week than they did against the Pats. Since that 21-7 lead, they've been outscored 90-10. The 49ers made them look completely amateurish. Best part is, because of the soft middle of teh AFC, they still have a shot at a Wild Card.



26.) Carolina Panthers  (1-4  =  92-125)

Year 2 of Cam is going a lot worse than Year 1. Of course, his Year 1 stats were inflated from the juiced Week 1-6 era of 2011, but one would've thought he would have improved from last year to this. I still like Cam long term, but he's got to play better at home. I realize Carolina isn't a great field to play in, but they have been so much better in their road games so far this season.


25.) Oakland Raiders  (1-3  =  67-125)

Hopefully they can use their week off to prepare for what could be another road blowout this week in Atlanta. That are work on making the Zone-Blocking Scheme and Darren McFadden gel. Or maybe sign corners that can actually play the position. The Raiders offense is still decent, but that defense is just atrocious. Reggie McKenzie better have a plan, because he gutted an average team.


24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (1-3  =  82-91)

It's nice that they have a -9 point differential. It is true they have been in every game, that they have played hard - however, they were incredibly outplayed against teh Giants and Cowboys, regardless of the final score. That all works early, but if they can't put together more wins, those close losses will explode into bigger losses. The 2011 Buccaneers lost some close games early as well.


27.) New York Jets  (2-3  =  98-132)

That was a good performance, but that really belies the problem with the Jets. They played well. They played aggresive, going with a fake punt on their side of the field. They got a special teams TD, and their defense held up in the red zone. Yet, they still lost by 6. Either the Jets turn this into a moral victory and run through an easier schedule, or this was the last stand of the Alamo.


23.) Detroit Lions  (1-3  =  92-125)

It says something about how weak the bad teams are that the Lions are only my 10th worse team. That said, some of that has to do with them allowing 4 Special Teams TDs the last two weeks, which swung two wins into losses. They've been better than that 1-3 record, but you look at the struggles of Matthew Stafford, the running game and the secondary (which hasn't been improved at all in the Mayhew/Schwartz era) and you think that maybe they aren't.


22.) Washington Redskins  (2-3  =  140-147)

I hope RGIII isn't out long-term. Partly because he's fun to watch play, but mostly because it will just continue to propigate this bias against QBs who can run. RGIII isn't Vick as much as he is like Cam. That said, there is a risk and it has presented itself. I guess this is why Shanahan drafted another QB in a middle round in the draft. Lost in all of that was a better performance by the Redskins defense, who are slowly adjusting to the loss of Orakpo and Carriker.


21.) Miami Dolphins  (2-3  =  103-103)

The Dolphins had a really nice win on Sunday, beating a good team on the road. Coupled with their two OT losses, they could be 4-1, or at least 3-2. That said, what we saw in Week 1, when they were thoroughly outclassed by the Texans, wasn't a mistake. I like this team, and they are another team unlikely in play for a Wild Card, but I think some will overrate their recent performance a little too much.


20.) New Orleans Saints  (1-4  =  141-154)

Congrats on getting off the schneid. Now, at least admit you were fortunate with a really questionable pass interference call late in the game. I actually came away from that game more impressed with the Chargers, but that was a good comeback by the Saints. Because the NFC is more top-heavy than expected, the Saints will have a tough time getting back into the mix. That loss to the Packers will loom larger each week.


19.) Indianapolis Colts  (2-2  =  91-110)

I hope Pagano's first treatment went as well as the Colts in the 2nd half. What a performance. Reggie Wayne isn't a HOF player, but that was a HOF performance. Andrew Luck had his first great comeback, and it was similar to Manning's best, coming back from 21-3 down late in the 2nd half. The real development, however, was the Colts finally showed some life with their new 3-4.


18.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-2  =  65-88)

Honestly, after their dreadful performance on MNF, that was a good time to have a bye. The Cowboys hopefully used it to make sure Romo doesn't throw 5 (or really 4) picks against the Ravens, and hopefully they used it to figure out how to turn their high yardage numbers into more points. Scoring 260 points (what the Cowboys are on pace for) is not exactly going to cut it in a high-scoring division.


17.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-2  =  80-99)

That was an OK performance, but man, can Mike Vick hold onto the ball. That first fumble at the Steelers 2 was awful. They could have still won, but their defense was gashed late. No OPI this time around for the Eagles. They've played 4 close games and gone 3-1. If that stays, they still have a shot, but if that equalizes to about .500, that is where the Eagles will, deservedly, be.


16.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-2  =  93-89)

Good win for a team that sorely needed it. If they lost to Philly at home to drop to 1-3 then they would really be in a tough spot. Losing Polamalu again hurts as their defense finally did look like a defense that resembled the Steelers from 2008-2011. Harrison looks a little slow, but that could improve. Mike Wallace is really struggling early. I didn't watch much of the game, so it could be that Nnamdi was covering him most of the day.


15.) Seattle Seahawks  (3-2  =  86-70)

This is a 'show-me' game for the Seahawks. They get the NFL's second hottest rushing attack (lest anyone forget, the 49ers have put up better rush numbers the last two weeks than New England), but get them in that bandbox in Seattle. They've made every opposing offense look flaccid, and need to do that to the Patriots. On the other side, it was good to see Wilson getting easier throws to make. He's not very good, but what he did against Carolina would be passable most weeks.


14.) St. Louis Rams  (3-2  =  96-94)

Through 5 weeks, all four NFC West teams are in my Top-15. Let that sink in. The Rams pass rush was incredible against Arizona. Now, that was against Arizona, but if they can do that more or less in most of their games, they are a definite Wild-Card competitors. Sam Bradford still has no weapons, but at some point, boy's gotta get more accurate. They are really tough to beat in that dome, but I want to see them show up outside. Last time they left, they were neutered 23-6 by the Bears.


13.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-2  =  125-129)

What a missed opportunity. They can't drop games to teams like the Dolphins if they want to win a Wild Card again. The 2011 Bengals didn't do it, the 2012 version can't either. I still like this team, and their defense has really stepped up the past two weeks, but with that loss, they've just let a ton of teams get near them in the standings.


12.) San Diego Chargers  (3-2  =  124-102)

That was a tough loss. They just fell apart after that roughing the passer call negated the pick-6. They played well, but losing to the Saints in New Orleans isn't as forgiveable as it was a year ago. Philip Rivers put up nice stats, but he just doesn't look right. That was an awful pick he threw. The Chargers need to show up for this game on Monday. They've been able to beat Manning by doing two teams: pressuring him up the middle, throttling the run game. Both will be hard to do against Denver, at least harder than it was against Indianapolis.


11.) Green Bay Packers  (2-3  =  112-111)

Losing to the 49ers: OK, the 49ers are a great team. Losing to the Seahawks: OK, they are tough to beat at home and have a great defense, and the Packers should have won. Losing to the Colts: Not OK. They were up 21-3. What happened to that O-Line in the 2nd Half. The Packers offense seems to go into huge stretches where they get nothing. Greg Jennings being 100% seems to mean a lot more to that offense than people think.


10.) Minnesota Vikings  (4-1  =  120-79)

They just dominated a team in a trap game. Good teams dominate bad teams. They just did that to the Titans. That was a bigger statement to me than any of their previous games (especially that fluke win in Detroit). The Vikings have found a way to make a supposed shortcoming (lack of weapons) be erased by great play-calling and utilizing Percy Harvin the way he should be. That defense is so improved from last year. They don't need Jared Allen to be superman to hold a team down anymore. I always thought Leslie Frazier would be a good coach. I had no idea.


9.) Denver Broncos  (2-3  =  135-114)

Again, part of this is pure homerism, but the three Denver losses were by 6, 6 and 10 to three teams in my Top-6, two being on the road. They've had an extremely tough schedule, and getting a road MNF game against doesn't help, but look at their schedule after the bye. Look at the way Manning has been playing. Look at that defense against bad to above average rush offenses (they've been shredded by two of the better ones in Houston and New England). They're going on a run soon, the only question is will that start this weekend or not.


8.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-1  =  94-78)

I'm not dropping them too far by looking bad on the road on TNF against a good team. The Bears did the same thing in Week 2. Didn't seem to hurt them too much. I'm definitely worried about that O-Line, but the Dolphins and Rams are both great pass rush teams. Larry FItzgerald is being utilized more now. They have to fix that run game. Thankfully, they still have a great defense. That is good enough considering they've already won four games.


7.) New York Giants  (3-2  =  152-111)

The Giants are one missed field goal away from 4-1 (much like the team up next). They've twice fell behind two lesser teams, which is a trend they can't keep doing, but they've reacted by dropping 41 points. Eli Manning is having a great season without his top target for much of it. They've pulled these guys from nowhere, like Barden, and plugged them in. One question I have for them, though, is that when is that pass rush going to show itself?


6.) New England Patriots  (3-2  =  165-113)

Their quick-no-huddle worked really well, and that run game is scary. But, as we've seen from the Bills and Broncos, they have trouble handling good rush offenses (especially the Bills). The Patriots offense is humming but I'll like to see them run close to that effectively in Seattle. It is obvious that we've overreacted to Welker having a spotty two games, but I think no one is even talking about Gronk's slow start, which is partly due to his gimpy back. He missed his senior season of college because of a back injury. This could potentially be far more serious than Hernandez's ankle.


5.) Baltimore Ravens  (4-1  =  130-89)

Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Ravens are still a great team and their defense has picked itself up the last two weeks. Suggs might also be back after the bye for the stretch run, which would be a huge lift for them.


4.) Atlanta Falcons  (5-0  =  148-93)

Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Falcons are still a great team. They are now 3-0 on the road, and have been great at home in recent years. One thing to look for is their run game. They need to use Rodgers more. It is clear that Turner is about done.


3.) Chicago Bears  (4-1  =  149-71)

So, this game was 3-3 at halftime. It ended 41-3. That was just a ridiculous performance all around by the Bears in teh 2nd half. Cutler to Marshall looked great. Tillman and Briggs continued their stellar play. Corey Wootton continued his good season. The Bears defense is playing as well as it did in 2006. They are getting contributions from offense and defense. Just a complete team playing really, really well.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (4-1  =  149-68)

All you need to know is that they were the first team ever to have 300+ yards passing and rushing. They averaged 8.1 ypc on 38 carries. That is insane. That makes what the Patriots have done the last two weeks on the ground look pedestrian. Alex Smith utilized all his WR targets, with Kyle Williams even making a cameo appearance. This team is scary right now, even moreso when they beat the Packers and Lions in great fashion. Winning two games 79-3 is about as dominant as it gets.


1.) Houston Texans  (5-0  =  149-73)

Did I expect more from there in that game, yes I did. Was I slightly disappointed in their offense playing conservative, knowing their defense could take care of business? Yes. That said, teams can't play their best each week. I still think we haven't seem the Texans best. The closest was the first three quarters against Denver. That said, the Jets got some breaks (KO Ret TD, three Red Zone Field Goals forced, fake punt) and the Texans still won. They still haven't trailed in the second half. They still have about as complete a team as any in the NFL.


Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games


14.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

First up is a game that I could be pleased not seeing one singly play of, especially if Brady Quinn is involved. Neither of these two teams are going anywhere. Let's just move on,


13.) Oakland Raiders (1-3)  @  Atlanta Falcons (5-0)  (1:00 - CBS)12.) Buffalo Bills (2-3)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-1)  (4:05 - CBS)
Now we get to the usual bad games, where one poor team is going on the road to a good to great team. The Raiders did get a week to prepare, but they aren't nearly as good as the Falcons. Their defense will be exposed. That exact same sentence can be written for the next game, but the Cardinals offense isn't great. This will be an interesting game pitting two teams with opposite strengths and weaknesses.


11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-4)  (TNF)10.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-5)  (1:00 - CBS) 

It's amazing that going into the week, this TNF game looks more unwatchable than last weeks Arizona @ St. Louis game. The Steelers should roll here, but if hte Titans can get their offense goign then it might be time to give up on the Steelers defense for 2012. As for the other game, they played a fun game three weeks ago, but that just sets up for a classic disappointing 20-10 type game.
 

9.) St. Louis Rams (3-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (2-3)  (1:00 - FOX)8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2)  @  New York Jets (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it 'Bracket Buster Week' just like they have for college basketball. The Rams are 3-2, but looking up at surprising 4-1's Minnesota and Arizona (of course, STL is surprising as well). The Dolphins are in that race for the Wild Cards with about 10 other teams. Two of their competitors are in teh next game. Yes, Andrew Luck might just lead the Colts to the playoffs. Will be interesting to see if the Jets have the same trouble selling tickets for this game.


7.) Detroit Lions (1-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)6.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1)  @  Washington Redskins (2-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

These next two games feature two NFC North vs. NFC East matchups, featuring two teams that have overperformed (the Eagles wildly so) against one underformer (Hello, Detroit!) and one exciting team that supposedly will be with its QB. For the Lions, if they fall to 1-4, count them out of any potential wild card chase because of the amount of teams that will be in front of them. In a way, same for the Redskins, who still have to play all six divisional games.


5.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2)  @  Baltimore Ravens (4-1)  (1:00 - FOX)4.) New England Patriots (3-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (3-2)  (4:05 - CBS)

Two interesting intra-conference matchups here. The Cowboys are the league's second lowest scoring team, which doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has rediscovered its defense. The last time these two played, teh Ravens shut down old Texas Stadium with two game-icing 75+ yard TD runs. As for the Patriots, it will be an interesting test of their new-found run game against a great defense in their house. The Seahawks have made every opposing offense look bad so far, and just manhandled last year's best rush offense. The Pats ran wild on two bad rush defenses. This could be different.


3.) Green Bay Packers (2-3)  @  Houston Texans (5-0)  (SNF)
Chase for Perfection + First home primetime game as a favorite against a team playing desperate. Who to take? I know where I'm leaning, because the desperation of Green Bay didn't help them against the Colts. If the Packers do lose, they'll be 2-4. Their schedule gets a lot easier, but still includes trips to MetLife, Soldier Field and Detroit. They need this win.


2.) Denver Broncos (2-3)  @  San Diego Chargers (3-2)  (MNF)
Talk about a team that needs a win. The Broncos have had the hardship of playing three of their four best opponents in the season's first five games (the remaining one is a trip to Baltimore). If they win this game, they tie the Chargers, have a head-to-head win on the road, and get a slate of easy games. If they lose, they're still in it for the division because of said easy schedule, but they probably can count out any shot at a bye. The CHargers can make a statement that they can beat a good team.


1.) New York Giants (3-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (4-1)  (4:25 - FOX)
Even before the season this game looked good. Now, with the 49ers winning their past two games 79-3 (how crazy is that), while the Giants won by 14 after trailing by 14, this game looks even better. We all know what happened the last time these two met. It was an epic dominated by the two defensive lines. Both D-Lines have struggled relative to what was expected, while both offenses have flown high. The Giants get up for these big games (try to think of the last big game that they didn't show up for, outside of trips to New Orleans), and it should be great. As much as I like the Packers @ Texans game, this should've been the Sunday Night game.


Postseason Projections

AFC

1.) Houston Texans  (14-2)
2.) Baltimore Ravens  (12-4 - beat NE)
3.) New England Patriots  (12-4)
4.) Denver Broncos  (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers  (10-6)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)


NFC

1.) San Francisco 49ers  (13-3 - conference record)
2.) Atlanta Falcons  (13-3)
3.) Chicago Bears  (12-4)
4.) New York Giants  (11-5)
5.) Minnesota Vikings  (11-5)
6.) Green Bay Packers  (10-6)

ALDS & NLDS Picks

That was an interesting night. First came the meltdown of the Braves' famed defense. Then the meltdown of the umpire. Then the meltdown of the Rangers. Anyway, in the end we are left with two intra-division DSes for the first time ever. I really like this slate of playoff teams, overall. A couple Cinderella stories (Orioles, A's), two wire-to-wire juggernauts (Nationals, Reds), a quietly dominant team in teh 2nd half (Giants), the token bad-record team (Tigers), the defending Champs (Cardinals) and the team we all get to hate (Yankees). You couldn't script it any better.

NLDS

(1) Washington Nationals (98-64)  vs  (5) St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)

I think the Nationals are a little overrated. They're a good team, but not 10 games better than St. Louis. The Nationals have better pitching, even without Strasburg, with Gio, Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson and, I guess, Ross Detweiler. That's better than St. Louis's foursome of Wainwright (who had just a decent year, for him), Lynn, Lohse and the other guy. That said, I have no idea how the Nationals won this many games with that offense. They have just one player with an OBP above .350 (Jayson Werth). Bryce Harper is one of their three best hitters and he didn't even have that great of a year. On the other side, the Cardinals have the best offense in the MLB. I think this goes 5 games (as easily could all of the series), and I'll take the Nationals but if I'm Washington, I would rather have faced the Braves.

Nationals in 5.


(2) Cincinnati Reds (97-65)  vs  (3) San Francisco Giants (94-68)

For years, the Reds hit gobs of Home Runs, while the Giants had great pitching. Well, you know what? This is a complete role reversal. The Reds can still hit home runs, but they have major pieces of the lineup that don't get on base or hit with too much power (Zack Cozart, Drew Stubbs). They do have the best hitter in baseball (Joey Votto, screw Cabrera and Trout, he's the best hitter in baseball). They do have a deep, good pitching staff with a great bullpen. All their four starters pitched 200+ innings, with ERAs under 4.00. Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Arroyo is a great playoff rotation. They might have the best bullpen in baseball is well, with Chapman finishing it off with his tidy 15.3 K/9. On the other side, considering park factors, the Giants offense is quite good. Buster Posey is the presumptive MVP leader. Brandon Belt had a nice campaign. Sandoval had a bounce-back year, and Angel Pagan had a nice season. Their pitching is what could kill them. I don't know if they plan to pitch Lincecum as a starter, but Zito should get that 4th spot. Bumgarner and Vogelsong both had mediocre second halves. Without Wilson, I don't trust their bullpen. The Giants are a good team. The Reds are just better, and better in the ways that recent history would've favored the Giants.

Reds in 4.


ALDS

(1) New York Yankees (95-67)  vs  (5) Baltimore Orioles (93-69)

I like the Rangers, but I'm happy that the incredible run of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles was not wasted in one playoff game. They'll get a playoff game in Camden Yards. The atmosphere should be incredible. Anyway, as for the series. The Yankees might not be close to the offense they were from 2004-2007, but in a sport with lower offensive levels, they are just as effective. The worry is, though, that some of their more effective players in 2012, like Nick Swisher, are historically unreliable in the playoffs. Their rotation really goes two deep, but Girardi's overmanaging of a bullpen might work better with a really effective bullpen with Soriano, Robertson, Rapada, Logan and Eppley all being effective. As for the Orioles, we all know that they have a poor run differential. They are a .500 team that managed to win ten extra games. That said, they have a decent lineup with a ton of power. They'll need that power as putting together a rally with singles and doubles won't work with a bad OBP team. With their rotation, who knows. The bullpen is great, but the starters are mostly erratic and awful. I have no idea if they can hold the Yankees at bay, but I want to believe it. This isn't a great Yankee team. I'll ride momentum, and the best story in baseball.

Orioles in 5


(2) Oakland Athletics (94-68)  vs  (3) Detroit Tigers (88-74)

The A's are a strange team. They have very little hitting outside of Cespedes, Gomes, Reddick and Carter, but they are really deep in their bench, providing them great pinch options. The key is that their pitching holds up to what it was in the regular season. Griffin seemed to tire late in the season, but he still can be an option. Tommy Millone can't do anything on the road, but if they plan it well, they can use him just at home. McCarthy and Parker have both had good years, and there is the potential for staff ace Brett Anderson to return from injury. Their bullpen is great. On the other side is the most top-heavy team in the tournament. They have four regulars with OPS+'s above 130, including Mr. Triple Crown. They have four under 100. If Cabrera, Fielder and Austin Jackson have good postseasons, the sky is the limit. Their pitching has Verlander, who was about 95% as good as he was in 2011. Max Scherzer was incredible in the 2nd half, quietly being #2 in K/9 in all of baseball behind Strasburg, and Doug Fister also had a good second half. They bullpen, though, is the issue. The Tigers have the worst bullpen of any team left in the playoffs, and those always factor in a large way in October. I have no idea. Do I really want to be left with a potential Cinderella bowl with the A's and Orioles? Sadly, no. I like the idea of the Tigers and Orioles, playing in two of the AL's most beautiful retro parks. It's fate, really.

Tigers in 4

On Chuck Pagano and the Whims of Evil

The Colts had a bye week, but emotionally, they suffered a 31-0 defeat last week. They suffered a defeat that they couldn't prepare for, and that they couldn't Monday Morning QB and fix. They suffered a human defeat. It could cripple a young team trying to start a new era. It could change the way we look at Jim Irsay's decision to let Peyton Manning go. It could have a drastic effect an a frisky team with the easy part of their schedule coming up. More than anything, though, it could, although unlikely, end a life.

Chuck Pagano has Leukemia. It is a curable kind, a treatable kind. It isn't a death sentence. It may not even end his season (although, as long as he is okay, who cares when he comes back). Yet, it once again shows the horrors of this particular disease, one that continues its evil romp through society. I often say how ridiculous it is that society has put men on the moon without computers, has figured out how to create an industry built off of essentially fake money and computers and turn it into the most profitable in the world, has figured out a way to put billions of bytes of computer power into an object with the volume of a cubic centimeter, but hasn't been able to cure cancer. I know that this is a crass statement to make, that truly millions upon millions is poured yearly into cancer research, that incredible developments have been made, but every time I hear that another person has cancer, that another person has to fight this disease, it makes me feel the same way each time.

I'll get personal for a minute. I have a relative who was recently diagnosed. Originally, it was thought to be metastasized throughout the bones, and that it was as close to terminal as possible. Despite losing all my grandparents, two Uncles and an Aunt, none had been to cancer, so this was new ground. For the first time, I thought at the time, I would lose a relative to cancer, lose someone who had truly been a part of my life for so many years. Thankfully, this was a wrong diagnoses, that it was less serious than initially thought. It still needed a 16-week treatment of radiation and chemo-therapy, but with modern science, and the amazing fight and spirit of the person, there is a chance we will meet for years to come. But is it fair? Is it fair that some still have to go through this awful, painful, debilitating cycle of treatment, with that fear that its dormancy will one-day end.

Weeks later, I find out that my childhood friend's Dad had cancer. Luckily, he too had a treatable version, one that left him fighting for his life and vulnerable to many ills, but still living and breathing. To many, the trails of these three would be, and rightfully so, considered lucky. They will live. Many won't. I might sound naive, but I don't care about that part, I only care that three people, one that I've grown up with, and one who is intimately connected to the person that was my first real 'best friend', fighting an evil that never stops, never rests, and never discriminates.

Getting back to Coach Chuck Pagano and my relative, it seems more cruel and evil than ever. My relative is a doctor, has dedicated their life to the medical industry, to helping people overcome their ills, and is cruelly saddled with falling victim to the fight they're fighting. For Pagano, he finally, after years upon years toiling in football isolation, in UNLV, East Carolina, UNC, Oakland, Cleveland and more before finally, at the age of 52, got his dream job. He got a great job, with a stable owner (despite what his Twitter account may let on), with a franchise, supposedly once-in-a-decade QB prospect, with a legacy of an organization with many great players and great coaches. He inherited a Mercedes, and just got blindsided by a mack truck.

Chuck Pagano, just like my relative and my friends' Dad, will almost certainly live. They will return to some semblance of normalcy. Because of medical advances millions of cancer patients around the world will defeat this dreadful, evil opponent. But that is still millions to many that need too. It may be just ranting, mad that the coach of my time, a first year coach that just got his dream job, needs to take eight weeks in isolation getting treatment. It may be just that I have someone who I've known my whole life that is fighting (and up till now beating) that same fight. I don't know what it is, but I've never felt angrier at this disease, at this evil that chooses blindly, without discrimination and discernment. It ruines lives on a whim, it forces humans to face and call up their most human emotion: strength. It brings out the best in people by forcing them to face the worst. It will bring out the best in Chuck Pagano, a man who looks ready for a fight anyway.

NFL 2012: Week 5 Picks

Arizona Cardinals (4-0)  @  St. Louis Rams (2-2)  (ARZ -1.5)

I've picked one TNF game correctly so far and that was the only one that has really followed the formula of TNF's games past, where the home team dominates a sloppy game. I have no feel for this game. I think the Cardinals are good, but the Rams are quite good in that building. Jeff Fisher's defense could harass Kolb the way Wake and the Dolphins did. I'm almost chalking this down as a loss already for me. I'll go with the Rams to win a tight game, partly because I think they'll win in their first home prime-time game since Bush was president (that is NOT a lie), and also because I can't imagine the Cardinals actually being 5-0.

Cardinals 17  Rams 20  (STL +1.5)


Atlanta Falcons (4-0)  @  Washington Redskins (2-2)  (ATL -3)

This should be a fun game, and another good test for the Falcons. So far, a group that has not been too much of a sure thing on the road (the Smith/Ryan Falcons) have been dominant on the road. Here, they get another shot against Griffin, who's still looking for his first home win. I can really see this game going either way. That said, the Falcons giving just three seems like a good value. They're better than the Redskins, and should score a lot against that porous Redskins defense. I'm going with Atlanta to win, and because of that low line, cover.

Falcons 35  Redskins 27  (ATL -3)


Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)  (PIT -3.5)

Interesting game. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team in the NFL statistically (empirically, it is probably Minnesota), while Pittsburgh should finally get Polamalu and Harrison back. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles sacked Roethlisberger 8 times. I doubt they get him down that many times, but they still stop suprress what has quietly been quite a good offense in Pittsburgh. The other side is the more interesting one. The Steelers defense has been bad save for one game against a Jets offense. They get their guys back, and they'll need him. In the end, I don't think the Eagles are that much better than a finally healthy Pittsburgh team to give that many points in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are great at home, and I think we see that here.

Eagles 20  Steelers 23  (PHI +3.5)


Green Bay Packers (2-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-2)  (GB -7)

Nice easy game for the Packers here. If they don't get 30 points here, then we have serious problems going forward with the Packers offense. The Colts are not that good anyway, but now will be in their first game without their coach (Thoughts & Prayers with you Coach Pagano). Some would think that this personal issue would inspire a team, but seeing from the Colts and Packers after their coach's had tragedies, or the Saints this year, that doesn't really happen. If Luck gets any time at all, he should be able to find holes in that secondary, but I doubt he gets too much time.

Packers 34  Colts 17  (GB -7)


Cleveland Browns (0-4)  @  New York Giants (2-2)  (NYG -9)

The Giants will either do one of two things: 1 - play a lazy game where they win with a late field goal, or 2 - blow the doors off the Browns. People like to point out the Giants playing lazy, slow games at home, but that isn't always true. In 2008-2010, they were notorious for smashing bad teams early in seasons. I can see that happening here. The case for the Browns is that they've been competitive, and have 10 days of rest against a team that played a SNF game, but I don't always buy that, especially if the team off the shorter rest is the better team playing at home.

Browns 13  Giants 27  (NYG -9)


Tennessee Titans (1-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (3-1)  (MIN -5.5)

I like this spot for Tennessee. The Vikings are 3-1, but really have played just one good game. They needed two return TDs to beat Detroit, and OT to beat a bad Jags team. On the other side, Tennessee is probably better than they've shown. They've been blown out badly by three of the best teams in the NFL (Patriots, Chargers, Texans) and played the Lions about as well as Minnesota did. I think this line is too high, and I can see Chris Johnson having another big game. I think the Vikings win the game, but the Titans keep it rather close. That line is just too high for me to feel comfortable picking the Vikings.

Titans 20  Vikings 24  (TEN +5.5)


Miami Dolphins (1-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)  (CIN -3.5)

On the other hand, this seems like too much respect for Miami after losing two games in OT. Yeah, they could easily be 3-1, but they are not. They just lost an emotional OT game and have to play another road game against the league's best hidden team. The Bengals are doing exactly what they did a year ago, winning all the games they should win. It might have helped them in a weird way to get blasted in Baltimore in Week 1. No one is really concentrating that they've won three games, two of which on the road. This seems like a clear undervaluation of a good team. The Bengals line should hold down the Dolphins pass rush, while the Bengals defense gets another chance to improve after a rough start.

Dolphins 17  Bengals 27  (CIN -3.5)


Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)  (BAL -6)

The last time these two teams squared off was the 2010 Wild Card Game, where teh Ravens drummed the Chiefs 30-7. Nothing much has really changed since then. The Chiefs are worse, as Matt Cassel is regressing to what he really is (a pick-prone QB that lacks pocket-presence). The Ravens defense is worse, but their offense is better. The Chiefs still haven't really stopped anyone, and I can't see them beating Baltimore. I also think this line is low. The Chiefs are not a good team. They had a close, lucky win against an 0-4 team, and outside of that they've lost by 16, 18 and 17. That's what I see from them here as well.

Ravens  31  Chiefs 13  (BAL -6)


Seattle Seahawks (2-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-3)  (CAR -3)

I wish the Seahawks were favorites by 3. I would have felt a lot more confident. I think Vegas, and the public in general, has kind of caught on that the Seahawks offense, at Russel Wilson, just isn't that good. The Panthers defense isn't either, but they should be able to hold down the Seahawks enough. The other side of teh ball pits a good defense against a volatile but good offense. It is really hard to make a good pick of how that matchup plays out. I'm leaning towards the Panthers, so I'll take them to win and cover (I would buy the half-point had I been actually betting here).

Seahawks 17  Panthers 23  (CAR -3)


Chicago Bears (3-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)  (CHI -6)

Oh, mercy. Blaine Gabbert and the Jags offense was awful against the Bengals at home. What exactly will they do against the NFL's most active defense through four weeks. They might get some run-game going (at least more so than last week), but sooner or later, the Bears will take that away. On the other side, if Forte plays, that Chicago offense is easily good enough to score 20+. This spread is low, for some reason. I have a feeling one or two of my clear blowout picks (this, Ravens over Chiefs, Giants over Browns, the one coming up) falters, but that is okay if the others work out like I think they will.

Bears 27  Jaguars 10  (CHI -6)


Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-1)  (SF -9.5)

This line seems high, but I can't relly make any sort of case for the Bills here. Their run game will probably have another innefective week. The 49ers run game is about as good as New England's (that's right, New England, despite what you have heard, did not invent running the football), and about as diverse. Their defense is much better. In the Bills losses, they've given up 100 points and turned the ball over 10 times. If their turnover number comes close to 5, then no way do they stay even close. The 49ers are too good to play a complacent game at home (especially after a complacent game two weeks ago). They get the win, and the cover, but I don't think the Bills embarrass themselves this time.

Bills 17  49ers  30  (SF -9.5)


Denver Broncos (2-2)  @  New England Patriots (2-2)  (NE -7)

It is easy to overreact to what just happened. The Patriots just scored 45 second half points. They just ran for 200 yards and gained 500 yards. They just had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Apparently, they've reinvented the way offense is played, and what transpired in Weeks 2 and 3 are irrelevant. Of course, the Broncos just had a game where they scored 31 second half points (in fewer possessions), gained over 500 yards and had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Yet, what is people's reaction about that game: It was the Raiders. Well... It Was the Bills. Anyway, getting to this game. The Patriots aren't suddenly the best team in the NFL. Their defense isn't suddenly good because FItz threw up some lobs. Their run game isn't suddenly the 2008 Panthers because they ran against dime coverage. That all said, at this stage, they are better than teh Broncos enough to beat them at home. My key for Denver is 3-3 at the bye, and winning next week's game is more important.

Broncos 23  Patriots 31  (NE -7)


San Diego Chargers (3-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (0-4)  (NO -3.5)

Has there ever been a line like this, where an team with three fewer losses is favored? It is even worse when it comes in Week 4, so a winless team is a favorite agaisnt a 3-1 team? This is just a stunning line. Yes, the Chargers were awful in their one loss, but the Saints HAVEN'T WON A GAME. They are 0-2 at home losing to two teams worse than the Chargers. If this line was normal (like a pick, or Chargers by 1 or 2), I would think about the Saints, but this is ludicrous. It is an affront. The Saints could very well win, but what is this line about? Anyway, going to the game, the Chargers offense should have an easy time against the Saints flaccid D. On the other side, I don't think the Saints offense is back to normal because of that game. Brees still threw too many incompletions, and they still didn't cross 30 points (which they did once, with a garbage-time TD). I'm taking the Chargers, and if they do win, that Broncos @ Chargers MNF game next week becomes all that much more important.

Chargers 31  Saints 27  (SD +3.5)


Houston Texans (4-0)  @  New York Jets (2-2)  (HOU -8)

I'm taking way too many high favorites to cover. 7 teams are favored by at least 6, and I've taken them all to cover. Hopefully, that goes at least 4-2. By the way, it is obvious, now, who I am picking in this game. The Jets are worse than the team that just played the 49ers in now that Santonio is gone. They won't be able to move the ball any easier against the NFL's best pass defense (and a Top-5 run defense). The Texans offense can run the ball well, and should against a suddenly porous Jets defense. 5-0 will be upon us, and two major tests are coming up (Packers & Ravens, both in Houston).

Texans 30  Jets 13  (HOU -8)


Enjoy the Games!!!

NFL 2012: Week 5 Power Rankings & the Rest

Well, after a .500 week of picks, I am back. As much so as Peyton Manning, at least.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Ravens (-12) over Browns  (WRONG  =  0-1)
Patriots (-4.5) over Bills  (CORRECT  =  1-1)
Vikings (+5) over Lions  (CORRECT  =  2-1)
Falcons (-7) over Panthers  (WRONG  =  2-2)
49ers (-5) over Jets  (CORRECT  =  3-2)
Chargers (+1) over Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  4-2)
Texans (-12) over Titans  (CORRECT  =  5-2)
Rams (+3) over Seahawks  (CORRECT  =  6-2)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cardinals (-6.5) over Dolphins  (WRONG  =  6-3)
Broncos (-6.5) over Raiders  (CORRECT  =  7-3)
Bengals (-2.5) over Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  8-3)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Saints (+7.5) over Packers  (CORRECT  =  9-3)
Redskins (+3) over Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  10-3)
Giants (+1.5) over Eagles  (WRONG  =  10-4)
Cowboys (-2.5) over Bears  (WRONG  =  10-5)

Week 4: 10-5  (Lock: 1-0;  Upset: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 37-25-1 (3-1;  4-0)

Best Pick: No perfect picks once again. The closest was my predicted Packers win of 28-24 (they won 28-27). I guess my upset pick of Rams 20 Seahawks 16 was kind of close (real score 19-13).

Weird Trend: I am 4-9 picking prime-time games. This wasn't a huge issue the first two weeks (4-3), but I've been 0-6 picking night games the last two weeks. No idea why, really. Usually those are easier games to pick, but I've not even been right heads up in the last two weeks (2-4).


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3  =  62-97)

They should be thankful for that Cecil Shorts play, because they could be staring at 0-4 right now. What a sullen performance. The Bengals defense has been bad all year long, but I guess playing the Jags offense is a good way to correct some things. I thought it was unfair the amount of criticism Gabbert got last year, but he's barely improved.


31.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3  =  88-136)

I still laugh at all those 'experts' to pick the Chiefs for a division title. Their defense is not good enough to overcome having Matt Cassel as the QB. Cassel really has not improved at all since he came to KC. People seem to like to wax poetic about that freak 7-int year in 2010, but that guy was a one-year fluke. The real Cassel is this one, who has awful pocket presence and throws gobs of picks.


30.) Cleveland Browns (0-4  =  73-98)

I really should have them ranked higher. They've been competitive in each game except for the Buffalo one. They showed great will and determination against the Ravens, making a game out of that one. Brandon Weeden is much, much better than that flummoxed cat that played in Week 1. They'll be feisty all year, but at some point you have to turn that into actual wins.


29.) Oakland Raiders (1-3  =  67-125)

I still like the Reggie McKenzie pick as GM long term, but can anyone tell me why he's cut almost everyone from the 2011 draft class. They were young, low-salary players, and he just let them go for nothing. Not that they were great, but DeMarcus Van Dyke is better than Ron Bartell or these other random stiffs McKenzie has got in the secondary. Just a terrible job with that defense.


28.) Tennessee Titans (1-3  =  81-151)

Being on pace to allow 600 points is usually not a good thing. Now Jake Locker-less for the forseeable future, it will be interesting to see exactly how much the dropoff is to Hasselbeck. CJ2K finally did something, and that might not be enough to touch teh Texans, but against lesser teams they could still win some games going forward.


27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2  =  61-83)

Thoughts and Prayers are with you, Coach Pagano. His is a much tougher test than anything the Colts will face, and reading and listening to him, he's definitely up for the challenge.


26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3  =  82-91)

The Buccaneers are a strange team. All of their losses have been close, but they've been outgained by at least 100 yards in all of them. They've nearly stolen two games they had absolutely no reason winning, and won a game they probably should have lost. The more and more these losses pile up, the worse off I think teh Bucs are in the Schiano era. Hard to play for a hard-ass when you are 3-9.


25.) Detroit Lions (1-3  =  100-114)

Well, that brief glimmer of hope for Lions fans that was 2011 was fun, wasn't it? In all seriousness, I think they are fine long term, but the Lions have entered a period where they aren't quite good enough to be able to think so highly of themselves. They like to play their game, but their game isn't good enough to beat a lot of teams. Sure, each of the last two weeks they've lost in games that featured 5 return TDs for their opponents, but losing to the Titans and Vikings aren't great endorsements.


24.) New York Jets (2-2  =  81-109)

I like Mark Sanchez. I genuinely think he is a good guy and wants and works to be a great player. The thing is, though, he just isn't. That said, the real problem for the Jets is Mike Tannenbaum has done an awful job or retaining and replacing talent. The 2009-2010 Jets were good, talented teams. Those guys aren't here anymore. They let Cotchery and Edwards go and not replaced them. They let Damien Woody go. They let Kerry Rhodes and countless other guys go. That roster just isn't that good.


23.) Miami Dolphins (1-3  =  86-90)

I'll admit, they are quite a bit better than I thought. Now, Brian Hartline having 250 yards receiving is a once-and-a-career achievement, but Tannehill looked calm and confident. That defense was swarming, including just a dominant performance by Cameron Wake. The Dolphins could easily be 3-1 right now (two losses in OT), but they're better off getting a low pick and building for the future. Tannehill's a guy you can build around, and I'm as surprised that that statement is true as any.


22.) New Orleans Saints (0-4  =  110-130)

That might have seemed like a tough loss to a good team, but let's be real, it was a tough loss when they were aided by multiple beneficial calls against a team that hasn't been that great this season. The Saints went 0-4 in 2007, so this isn't exactly unprecedented, and they finished that season 7-5. Brees is actually playing appreciably better this time around, but the defense is appreciably worse. With the Chargers and Broncos among their next few games, this might be getting worse.


21.) Carolina Panthers (1-3  =  80-109)

The Panthers two divisional losses this season were so similar to so many of their losses last year. Close losses where they had chances to win the game late in the 4th quarter. That decision to punt was about as conservative as it gets. Yes, they downed the ensuing punt at the 1, but it still was cowardly. Cam Newton is about as sure a thing as there is in the NFL if you need one yard. Let him get that one yard, Ron.


20.) St. Louis Rams (2-2  =  79-91)

I know Jeff Fisher is a good coach, but this has been really surprising. The Rams were outclassed in Chicago by a plain better Bears team, but that defense is really strong, and they play well at home. Honestly, they've played four teams that are more talented, and won two games and came close to winning another. Sam Bradford also looks comfortable, for once, which is doing wonders for that offense that could still use a couple weapons that could actually be considered good.


19.) Buffalo Bills (2-2  =  115-131)

That was the definition of falling off a cliff. All of a sudden, they stopped getting any sort of pressure on Brady, Fitzpatrick started wildly flinging passes all over the place and it was a wrap. That defense doesn't seem to be any better this year. In their two losses, they've given up 100 points. 52 to the Patriots is bad, but 48 to the Jets? Anyway, because of an easy schedule they can stay around .500, but that defense better improve quickly.


18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2  =  77-75)

The bye should help them in that they'll get Harrison and possibly Polamalu back, but how bad does that Oakland loss look now. The Steelers are wasting a great year from Roethlisberger to this point. There's still time to sort this out in an AFC where many of the teams ahead of them aren't great (Jets, Bills), but maybe they aren't either.


17.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2  =  65-88)

For years, I have expounded on the Cowboys inability to have their points scored rank match up with their yardage rank. It was first obvious in 2009, when everyone was raving about their 2nd rank offense in terms of yards, but they ranked just 14th in points. In 2011, when Romo was healthy again, it was more moderate, with the points rank at 15, while the yards at 11 (oddly, the most even year was with Kitna at QB for a long stretch in 2010). This year is the worst. The Cowboys currently have scored the 2nd fewest points in the NFL, while ranking 16th in yards. That is a recipe for disaster.


16.) Washington Redskins (2-2  =  123-123)

I'll admit it, RGIII is a very good player and this is a very fun offense to watch. I bet Mike Shanahan has dreamed of having this type of QB ever since leaving the friendly confines of Camelot with Steve Young. Now, they have to stop blowing leads. For the 2nd time this season, the Redskins blew at 21-6 lead on the road. They came back to win this time, but blowing a 15 point lead to the Bucs isn't exactly the sign of a great team.


15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2  =  70-58)

That Seahawks-Rams game made me feel smart. I like feeling smart; that feeling when you call a game close to perfectly. The Seahawks aren't good enough to go on the road to a good defense and win. Russell Wilson and that offense just isn't there yet. That said, if the Rams kicker doesn't pull a Janikowski, they might win anyway. It is so strange to see good, competitive and competent games featuring NFC West teams again.


14.) Minnesota Vikings (3-1  =  90-72)

There is a good chance the Vikings are 4-1 after next week. They've shored up that secondary and their offense is just clicking right now. Christian Ponder is using that offense perfectly, utilizing short routes with Rudolph and getting Harvin involved as much as possible. Peterson looked great and continues to amaze in his quick recovery from an ACL tear. The Vikings are really as much of a surprise as the Cardinals, and they aren't going away.


13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1  =  112-112)

This team also has a great chance of being 4-1. Essentially, they are doing exactly what they did last year: beat all the teams they are better than. They were completely outclassed by the Ravens in Baltimore, but beat three teams worse than them. The defense finally showed up (Michael Johnson, welcome back to relevance). I like this team. Again, they'll lose to the good teams, but in a weak middle of the AFC, that might not really matter.


12.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1  =  66-83)

The Eagles have to be one of the worst 3-1 teams ever. They've been outscored by 17. Each of their three wins could have so easily been losses, had the Browns LB held onto the pick, Jacoby Jones not being called for a really suspect OPI, and Lawrence Tynes getting 4% more power into that kick. They didn't turn the ball over for once, but their worst quality from 2010-11 showed up: inability to do anything in the red zone.


11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2  =  85-81)

Just like I said in the Saints part, the Packers needed some luck to beat an 0-3 team. Against the league's worst defense, they couldn't put up 30 points (admittedly, Rodgers had a really good game). The Packers schedule starts to get easier starting with the Colts next week, but I still don't think they are quite there. Jordy Nelson doesn't seem close to what he was last year. That defense also seemed to take a step back after a nice start to the season.

10.) San Diego Chargers (3-1  =  100-71)

I'm probably underrating the Chargers after their big win in Arrowhead, but I still don't like this team. Their completely listless home game against Atlanta is still sticking in my head. They took care of business against a bad team, but the schedule is going to start getting quite a bit tougher going forward. Rivers is still not performing at his best level, but they haven't really needed him to so far. 


9.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0  =  91-61)

That was a gut-check win, where they needed their offense for the first time in 2012. They are still so good in that dome. Kevin Kolb was battered and bruised by the Dolphins pass rush, but he stepped up big at the end with two huge throws on 4th downs. Andre Roberts has really turned into a nice player that can take advantage of all the attention paid to Fitz. I'm willing to give the Cards a pass for that lousy coverage, but it should get better.


8.) Denver Broncos (2-2  =  114-83)

Other than not getting a turnover (though a blocked punt is essentially a turnover) the Broncos defense played about as well as it could against a good Raiders defense. That was more important in a way than Manning shredding that awful defense. That said, let's talk about the Broncos offense. McGahee and Hillman cruised to 150 yards. Peyton looked like, well, Peyton. He was simply masterful against that defense. The only time the Broncos were stopped was when Thomas inexplicably fumbled, and that even more inexplicable fake field goal.


7.) New England Patriots (2-2  =  134-92)
 
Before we all go Ga-Ga over the Patriots dropping 52 on the Bills, let's remember that the Jets dropped 48 on those same Bills. The Patriots have also allowed close to 900 yards the past two weeks. Against a better QB, that defense get absolutely torched yesterday. Their running game is scary, but they went against a team that played dime for most of the game in fear of the pass. I'd like them to have a great performance against a good team. They get a chance this Sunday.


6.) New York Giants (2-2  =  111-84)

That was a tough loss. That was absolutely OPI on Barden, but had that just been incomplete, Tynes probably hits the 44 yard field goal and the Giants go to 3-1 with a huge road divisional win. Either way, the Giants are still a good team that nearly beat the Eagles without Nicks and with no running game. Their defense lost another key member in Phillips and they need to play better against the run, but that was a really tough situation to play in and they could have won.


5.) Chicago Bears (3-1  =  108-68)

Well, that was something. Through four games, two against what people would call good offenses, the Packers have picked off 11 passes, and recorded 15 sacks. Both those figures, shall we say, lead the league. There is little chance they keep up that pace, but if they somehow do get close to picking off 44 passes and recording 60 sacks, just give them the divisional title. Good to see Devin Hester be used well on offense, and better to see Marshall and Cutler in sync and, for once, smiling.


4.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1  =  121-83)

They are good. Their offense is really good at times. Joe Flacco is turning in one of the better seasons of any QB this year. Ray Rice has been incredible efficient in limited use. That is the good. The bad is the defense, and specifically the pass defense without Terrell Suggs applying pressure. They haven't been able to come close to replicating the pressure that Suggs brings and going forward that is something to look out for. The Ravens are still good enough to get around it because of that improved offense, but sooner or later not having Suggs will hurt them (until they get Suggs back, of course).


3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0  =  124-76)

The Falcons escaped. Good teams have to sooner or later, and great teams do it. The only concern I have is more of an aesthetic one. The Falcons have been incredible at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but their two 'close' games in 2012 have been at home. Now, that belies dominant road performances, but still a bit worrying for a team that could be playing a couple home games come January.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (3-1  =  104-65)

The Jets didn't pose much of a challenge, but that doesn't mean you can't be impressed with what the 49ers did. They rushed for 245 yards. They gave up 145... total yards. On the road, in a 1PM East-Coast game. They took that trope and beat it to death. Sure, I still want to see more from Alex Smith, but that was the return of the most phyiscally dominant team in the NFL.


1.) Houston Texans (4-0  =  126-56)

A quick disclaimer: they aren't as good as the 2007 Patriots. Okay, after getting that out of the way, they are off to the best start of any team since. They've scored the 2nd most points in the NFL despite noticeably pulling the foot of the gas in the 2nd half of each of their first two games. They've allowed the fewest points. They've played only one reasonably close game, and that was on the road and even there they led by 20 before getting burned in the 4th quarter by Peyton. JJ Watt is playing at a level rarely seen by anyone not named Reggie White. That offense still isn't running at its best, and Andre Johnson is being purposely taken out of games, yet their offense has scored more than enough. There is really no other option. The real test for the Texans will be their two games coming up after this one against the Jets, where they host the Packers on SNF and then host the Ravens. If they escape that at 7-0 with impressive wins, then I'll start debating a possible run at 16-0.


Ranking this Week's Games

With just a quick glance at the schedule, this is the least appealing week so far. Obviously, there is one large exception, but both of the main primetime games are less attractive now than they looked at the beginning of the season. Anyway, four teams on a bye this week. including three 1-3 teams, yet the slate still has a bunch of games featuring good teams against bad.

Byes: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay


These first four games feature good teams (if not teams with great records) playing against bad teams. The Packers can continue to get back to their normal offensive levels with a trip to Indy. The Giants can get that bad taste out of their mouth with Cleveland. The other two are interesting. The Bears defense could just kill Blaine Gabbert, and the Ravens have a good shot of doing the same to Matt Cassel. These all set up to be less than competitive, and therefore, pretty boring.

14.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)  (CBS - 1:00)
13.) Chicago Bears (3-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)  (FOX - 4:05)
12.) Cleveland Browns (0-4)  @  New York Giants (2-2)  (CBS - 1:00)
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-2)  (FOX - 1:00)



These next two games get their own section. They share mostly the same formula as the ones above, but are a little more interesting because of the potential here. The Jets and Bills are two of the worst 2-2 teams, and both were absolutely crushed last weekend. Now they get my top-2 teams in the NFL. As for the Jets, you have to think they show some pride after what just took place, but it really may not matter. Same with the Bills.

10.) Houston Texans (4-0)  @  New York Jets (2-2)  (MNF)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-1)  (CBS - 4:25)



The Titans are the worst team by point differential in the NFL, but I like this matchup for some reason. CJ2K finally played a game, and just watching him and All-Day go against each other should be fun. What could really be interesting is the Vikings, yes the Vikings, could be 4-1.

8.) Tennessee Titans (1-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (3-1)  (CBS - 1:00)



These next three games are all quite similar. They feature a bunch of mediocre to good teams playing against each other. That Arizona @ St. Louis game is turning out a lot better than it originally looked on the TNF slate. The Bengals could also be 4-1, and start shutting all those people who saw regression from them (me!). Seahawks @ Panthers just seems fun.

7.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0)  @  St. Louis Rams (2-2)  (TNF)
6.) Miami Dolphins (1-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)  (CBS - 1:00)
5.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-3)  (FOX - 4:05)
 


Not sure why this game is that appealing. In most weeks it wouldn't be this high. The Steelers should have at least Harrison back at this point. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team, and the Steelers are the best sub-.500 team, so I could see the Steelers flexing their muscles at home again.

4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)  (FOX - 1:00)
 


Do you like offense? Well, then these two games are for you. The Redskins continue to be a really exciting team to watch, while the Falcons are the most explosive offense through four weeks. In that next game, I wonder what odds you would have gotten that the Chargers would enter that game three games better than the Saints. The Chargers so far are 2-0 on the road, and there is no East Coast stuff going on as it is a night game. The last time these two met was a wildly entertaining 39-36 game in London back in 2008.

3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0)  @  Washington Redskins (2-2)  (FOX - 1:00)
2.) San Diego Chargers (3-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (0-4)  (SNF)



The Rivalries continue. Sure, we finally get Manning vs. Brady for the first time since December 2010, but the best part about Manning's new team choice is that he joins an already existing rivalry. Back in the day, the Broncos under Shanahan used to give the Patriots fits. They beat them in 2002 and then three straight times from 2005-2006 (for all the talk of rock-paper-scissors, it was everyone beat New England in those two years) including handing Brady his first playoff loss, and the Patriots needed some timely situation football (intentional safety) to steal a win in 2003 against a Danny Kannell led Broncos team. Since those days, the Patriots have won three of four, and all their wins are in blowouts, with the Broncos win in the McDaniels game in 2009. As for the Manning factor, in the modern rivalry (from 2001), he's never beaten the Patriots in a non-prime-time game (discounting the 6:35 start for the 2006 AFC Title Game) losing in 2003, 2007 and 2010, while winning the last four played in prime-time (including back to back wins in New England in 2005 and 2006). So of course, NFC gives CBS's head-honcho Les Moonves's friend Robert Kraft a solid by putting this game during the day. Yeah, I see through this obvious scheduling bullshit. Anyway, both teams enter on highs, and neither is desperate at 1-3. Should be a good game.

1.) Denver Broncos (2-2)  @  New England Patriots (2-2)  (CBS - 4:25)


*New Section*  (Yes, I understand how long this is)

Postseason Projections

AFC

1.) Houston Texans  14-2
2.) Baltimore Ravens  12-4
3.) New England Patriots  12-4
4.) Denver Broncos  11-5
5.) San Diego Chargers 10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills/New York Jets  9-7 (Yeah, easy schedules really help)


NFC

1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) San Francisco 49ers 12-4
3.) Chicago Bears 12-4
4.) New York Giants 11-5
5.) Green Bay Packers 10-6
6.) Arizona Cardinals 10-6

NFL 2012: Week 4 Picks

Cleveland Browns (0-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  (Ravens -12)

The only think that would make me pick the Browns to cover (picking them to win is just ludicrous) is that the spread is really high and the Ravens had a really emotional, physical game on Sunday Night and this is a quick turnaround. However, the Ravens now how to beat the Browns in their sleep. Flacco and Harbaugh have never lost to them, and they haven't lost in that stadium since December 2010 (and before that since November 2009). Not happening here.

Browns 10  Ravens 27  (BAL -12)


New England Patriots (1-2)  @  Buffalo Bills  (Patriots -4.5)

I'm surprised this line is low. The Patriots have lost two close games to good teams and while the Bills are at home and have the better record, they've beaten two bad teams (KC, CLE) and will be without their best offensive player through three weeks. Now, Fred Jackson coming back should negate some of that. In the end, I think this game will be close (I think the Bills are good) but this seems to be really good value for New England.

Patriots 31  Bills 24  (NE -4.5)


Minnesota Vikings (2-1)  @  Detroit Lions (1-2)  (Lions -5)

What exactly have the Lions done to be favored by this much. Matthew Stafford is coming off an injury and hasn't looked that good even before the injury. They barely beat a bad Rams team, then lost to the 49ers easily, then lost to a bad Titans game in an admittedly flukey game. The Vikings have an offense led by a capable player who has so far been extremely accurate. They have enough ability to keep it close, and I could see their defense swarming the pocket of Stafford. I don't know if they win, but that five points is really an insult to one of the better surprises of 2012.

Vikings 23  Lions 27  (MIN +5)


Carolina Panthers (1-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-0)  (Falcons -7)

I'm torn about this game. I can see the Panthers, in a divisional game with 10 days of rest, coming out and playing well, but the Falcons are just on a roll right now. Surprisingly, their worst performance was at home against Denver, but Denver is better than Carolina. Matt Ryan should have a ton of time to throw against a flaccid pass-rush. If Ramses Barden could go off on them, imagine what the Falcons can do. This is a high line, but the Falcons are that good for the time being.

Panthers 23  Falcons 31  (ATL -7)


San Francisco 49ers (2-1)  @  New York Jets (2-1)  (49ers -5)

This is an interesting matchup, with the 49ers having to play a 1PM game on the East Coast, while the Jets have to start Week 1 of the post-Revis 2012 season. Thankfully for them, the loss of Revis won't kill them here because the 49ers don't have any receiver that needs a Revis to take him out of the game. I can see the Jets defense having a good amount of success against the 49ers offense. The real story is the other side. The Jets offense has looked very much like the Jets offense we've come to know and love (unlike that absolute fluke from Week 1). The 49ers defense should hound Mark Sanchez. I don't like that matchup at all for the Jets.

49ers 23  Jets 13  (SF -5)


San Diego Chargers (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)  (Chiefs -1)

Why is this line low? I realize there is a concern of the Chargers having to play a 1PM game, but I think this is a wild overreaction to one bad game by the Chargers. Yes, the Chiefs played well against the Saints in the 2nd half, but the Redskins and Panthers did as well and that hasn't translated into more wins in those cases. The Chargers offense should excel against a mediocre Chiefs secondary. On the other side, the Chargers defense has been better than expected, which should do wonders against a less than mediocre Chiefs offense.

Chargers 27  Chiefs 20  (SD +1)


Tennessee Titans (1-2)  @  Houston Texans (3-0)  (Texans -12)

I can't believe that I am about to pick two 12 point favorites to win and cover without really thinking much of it. There is a pretty good likelihood that one of these two don't cover, but I can't see the Texans needing much effort to beat a bad Tennessee team. The Texans are just a lot better right now. Their defense should swarm Locker, not allowing him to scramble the way he has. I can't see CJ0K getting off the ground here either. Their offense is good enough to do what they always do. The Texans have a formula, and until the defenses they face improve or injuries set in, it will work and work well.

Titans 13  Texans 31  (HOU -12)


Seattle Seahawks (2-1)  @  St. Louis Rams (1-2)  (Seahawks -2.5)

I like the Rams here. I don't think the Seahawks are that good, especially on offense. They basically had three plays in that game (the two TDs to Tate and the pass to Rice right before the Hail Mary) on offense. The Rams defense is quite good (at least as good as the Packers) and they are at home. I can see them shutting down the Seahawks offense. As for the Rams, their offense is not very good, but they've played better at home. They can play well enough to score enough points against a bad, overrated offense.

Seahawks 17  Rams 20  (STL +3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Miami Dolphins (1-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-0)  (Cardinals -6.5)

Why is this line so low? The Dolphins played well last week, but the Cardinals are better than the Jets, and Arizona has been quietly one of the toughest places to play since that new building was opened in 2006, and great there since Whisenhunt took over in 2007. In '07, they went 6-2, in '08, they went 6-2, in '09, they went 4-4 but one of those was a rest-a-thon, in '10, they went 4-4 (the team went 5-11), and in '11, they went 6-2. So, in the Whiz era, they've gone 26-13 in real games, and 3-0 in the playoffs. That is a great home-field now. This seems too easy.

Dolphins 13  Cardinals 27  (ARZ -6.5)


Oakland Raiders (1-2)  @  Denver Broncos (1-2)  (Broncos -6.5)

The Broncos should win this game. Reggie McKenzie has scorched earth-ed the Raiders defense and they are now pretty awful. They cannot stop the pass at all, and Manning should have a great game. I can't see the Raiders D holding Denver to less than 27 or 30. Yet, I am terrified, mostly because a Denver loss here confirms my worst fear that the Manning era in Denver will not go too well, at least in 2012. I don't think this will happen, but I do fear it.

Raiders 17  Broncos 31  (DEN -6.5)


Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)  (Bengals -2.5)

Another line I can't understand. The Jaguars were one minute, and a fluke 80-yard TD, away from 0-3. The Bengals were outclassed in Baltimore, but since have been the best offense in the NFL in Weeks 2-3. Their defense should finally show up now that they get the Jaguars offense to play against. I guess I can see a world where MoJo goes off, but even then I don't know if it will be enough. This isn't a great matchup for the Bengals, but that just means that they'll win by less than 10.

Bengals 24  Jaguars 20  (CIN -2.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


New Orleans Saints (0-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-2)  (Packers -7.5)

By far the most interesting game between an 0-3 and a 1-2 team ever. If the Saints can pull this off, the Packers and Saints will both be 1-3. If the Packers win, they Saints will be 0-4, and on an 0-5 streak going back to last season. As for the game, here we have two teams that combined for about 1100 points last season, and so far one team is scoring 27.5 PPG, and the other is scoring at 19.0 PPG!!! Overall, I think the Saints actually give the Packers a good game. The Packers offense has been hampered by facing very good defenses, but their defense has feasted on bad offenses. The Saints might turn it over a lot, but they still can put up yards with the best of them. I think the Packers get key turnovers, and their offense shows some signs of life (4 TDs in 3 games so far) and win a close game.

Saints 24  Packers 28  (NO +7.5)


Washington Redskins (1-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)  (Buccaneers -3)

I have nothing to say about this game. It bores me to death. I feel for the regions of the country that get this game and not Saints @ Packers. The Buccaneers seemed like they wanted to end their fan's lives last week in Dallas. The Redskins defense is about as bad as I thought. I have no feel for this game, and honestly, I don't care to develop any.

Redskins 23  Buccaneers 17  (WAS +3)


New York Giants (2-1)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)  (Eagles -1.5)

The Eagles are the worst 2-1 team in the league. Now, they aren't the worst going forward (that would probably be Seattle or the Jets or Minnesota), but the worst through three games. 12 turnovers. Two one-point wins that were enabled by some fortunate plays followed by a harrowing loss in Arizona. The Giants pass-rush rediscovered themselves on Thursday, and they get 10 days to prepare for Vick, who looked about as clueless in terms of pocket-awareness as he ever last against Arizona. I think this line is a weird symbol of some respect for an Eagles team playing a divisional rival at home, but I don't see the Eagles getting too much going in this game. 

Giants 27  Eagles 20  (NYG +1.5)


Chicago Bears (2-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-1)  (Cowboys -3.5)

I really, really want to pick the Bears. Their defense is playing at a level I haven't seen from them since 2006. Their front is so deep and aggresive right now. Their secondary is playing well. Urlarcher and Briggs are still doing what they do. That said, they can't block. Neither can Dallas, but Romo is better under pressure than Cutler. These are, in a way, two pretty similar teams, but I think Dallas, at home, will do enough to get by the Bears defense. However, the one thing that can easily swing this game, and for all I know will, is that little Devin Hester housing one. I'm not betting on Special Teams, but that is really what scares me.

Bears 17  Cowboys 24  (DAL -3.5)


Enjoy the Games