2010 Starting QB Rankings

366 days ago, I did this ranking, of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL. I loved it so much, I have decided to do it again (I don't care if you liked it or not.... just kidding (maybe)).

The rankings are not based on what they have done for their careers. The rankings are not based on what some hack on SI says about him while getting hard. The rankings are mostly based on how good they are now (the majority), and their outlook for the future (the minority). Basically, if two guys are about even, I went with the younger guy. Last year, I was dumb and did it with players who were starters but only because of injury and the like, so this year I decided to rank the actual starting QBs (if the team still had two starting QBs, I flipped a coin. Fine, I didn't flip a coin, but who gives a shit - I'm not decided NFC Wild Cards, I don't need ten rounds of tiebreakers). Here is a quick guide to the movers off last years' list.

Kurt Warner retired, so he has an excuse for leaving the list. Everyone else pretty much earned their way off the list by exemplifying their inner Ryan Leaf. Kerry Collins, Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Josh Johnson, Shaun Hill, Trent Edwards, and Marc Bulger have all left the building. This comprised 32-26 and 24-23 of the list, so I did my job. I put the guys that didn't last 366 days at the bottom of the list, to be replaced by another 9 guys who might not be there next here. Anyway, here we go:

32.) Max Hall (Not Ranked Last Year) - 25, 1st year


I have a feeling that Whisenhunt stays with him unless he starts really sucking, which is a possibility, given that he is not all that good to begin with. I loved how before his first start, the always jolly and fat Peter King wrote something about how Kurt Warner told him that Max Hall reminded Warner of himself. Undrafted, and playing for the Cardinals. The one difference is that at least Warner was an Arena League and Euro League MVP in his day. Max Hall is not. He won a game against the defending champs, but really did nothing to win that game. The Cardinals one offensive drive came courtesy of a Brees interception out of his own endzone. The other two came via defensive returns. I'm not saying that Max Hall will not become the next Kurt Warner. I am saying that there is a better chance that I become the next Kurt Warner.


31.) Ryan Fitzpatrick (NR) - 28, 6th year


He had a nice start against the Patriots, but every QB has had nice numbers against the Patriots. He doesn't have a great arm at all, and really struggles to make out throws. He is a smart player, and I am saying this not entirely because he went to Harvard. To give him credit, the Bills don't have anything much to offer him as weapons, and can't protect for dick, but his physical skills might be the worst in the league. There is a reason he wasn't even the Bills starter at the beginning of the year, and probably won't be next year.


30.) Matt Moore (NR) - 26, 4th year


I totally had this guy wrong. I admit when I make mistakes, and I made a big mistake reading him. He has some physical tools, and hasn't had much to work with, but he is nowhere near the player that even Jake Delhomme on an average day was. He didn't get much protection, but lacked pocket awareness to escape anyway. He has the physical skills to be a journeyman, much like the two people above him.


29.) Alex Smith (NR) - 26, 6th year


People actually clamored to see David Carr over him after seeing him play. Alex Smith is a player who will have flashes of good-ness, but those just mask his horrible decision making, and awful touch on passes. He wildly overthrows way too many passes, and gets confused on making reads. This is really odd, considering his mental ability was his strongsuit coming into the league back in the 2005 draft. I love how the Bay Area has the three biggest #1 overall draft busts of the decade, and two are on the same team. I will say this, in the right system, he has a chance, but I don't know what that system is, since he has played in so many and failed in so many already.


28.) Colt McCoy (NR) - 24, 1st year


That was a great performance, but I cannot legitimately mark him any higher with only one game in his career. Colt McCoy barely got the ball downfield. He makes quick reads, and good decisions, from what I can see. He seems to be a more check-downy version of Drew Brees, which might not be a terrible thing. However, those last two sentences also described one Mr. Timothy Couch Potato. You need to have at least a good arm to play in the cold, outdoors, so this might not be as good as it looked in Game 1.


27.) Matt Cassel (25 Last Year) - 28, 6th year


Here is my take about Cassel, the first QB to be ranked last year as well: He has not regressed, but he has not progressed. It is painfully obvious that his success was really a product of having Randy Moss on his team, as well as Wes Welker, and a great Offensive Coordinator. Matt should not be ashamed or saddened, since he still has a nice contract to live off of, and is not the first QB to have his career made by Randy Moss. All that does is put him level with Jeff George, Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culpepper and Tom Brad.... (Okay, I couldn't do it).


26.) David Garrard (19) - 32, 9th year


The man who defined "average" is now worse than "average". He might be hurt longterm, which hurts this lists' credibility, but I didn't want to hurt whatever Bill fan may be reading this by listing Trent Edwards here as well. Garrard, when he has time to throw, or when he plays the Colts, can still be effective, but he is not the best decision maker on the field. He has a propensity for critical interceptions. His mobility gives him some upside, but he has already peaked.


25.) Bruce Gradkowski (NR) - 27, 5th year


I think that he is the starter when he gets healthy, so he gets the nod as the Raiders' representative. Gradkowski doesn't have the greatest arm, and is not the most accurate player, but he does one thing at about a top-10 level which makes him better than the seven QBs above: he can play well under pressure. This is extremely important as he plays behind the Raiders o-line. He can change his arm angle and throw with people in his face. Average player, which for the Raiders is better than most of what they've had of late.


24.) Josh Freeman (NR) - 22, 2nd year


He's a player that could jump up this list by next year. Freeman has gotten to the point where he will play effectively against bad to mediocre teams. He still struggles against the better teams, which puts him a level below the other young QBs in the league. Freeman is not your prototypical black QB, in that he is much more willing to stay in the pocket. He reminds me of Roethlisberger. He uses his athletic abilities to avoid rush and stay in the pocket, not to rush for yards. He has one of the best arms, and seems to be getting better, but I would love to see him step up and play good against a good team.


23.) Vince Young (NR) - 27, 5th year


He is really the perfect game manager. Against bad teams, Young will play good. That is fine. All QBs will play good against bad teams, and if they don't they belong in the UFL (Tim Rattay, for instance). Young is the type of player that will throw up a 17-30, for 180 yards, and one TD and one INT against good teams. That is not enough to win the game by itself, but it won't necessarily lose it. He doesn't seem to be near the runner he was in his rookie and sophomore season, which may be by design. He is finally firmly entrenched in that starting spot, though.


22.) Kevin Kolb (NR) - 26, 4th year


I want to see him perform against a good defense on the road before I make any final decision on Kolb. He struggled mightily early in the year against a good Packers defense. He played well against the 49ers (ass) and Falcons (not hard to do at home). He gets his chance this weekend against the Titans. Kolb has a much better arm than I expected, manly since the only thing he did in his performance against the Redskins was throw screens. His accuracy seems to be an issue, but it could get better. Physically, there is not much time for him to grow, as he already is 26.


21.) Matt Hasselbeck (17) - 35, 13th year


What is more shocking: That the Matthew is having a nice bounceback season, or that he is the second oldest starting QB in the league. I find it hilarious that Brett Favre is so old, that the second oldest QB in the league was once Favre's young backup. Hasselbeck had a great game against the Bears because he had time to throw, but there are two problems. First, he's old so his future prospects are whatever is worse than 'bleak', and he is extremely injury prone. On any play, he has about a 40% higher chance of getting injured than the average QB (note: not totally true), so that hurts his rankings. Still love the guy, though.


20.) Matthew Stafford (18) - 22, 2nd year


Hard to really rate him since he hasn't played much this year. His physical tools are off the charts, and in limited action against teams that were average to bad, his accuracy was much better than it translated to be in the NFL. He has great weapons to work with. There is a slight concern that I have that he might be injury prone, since this is the second time he hurt the same shoulder, but neither separation came when he was throwing the ball. He has a bright future, but he has to stay healthy.


19.) Kyle Orton (20) - 27, 6th year


Kyle Orton is having a dream season running Josh McDaniels' offense. If I was Tom Brady I would slap McDaniels. The endless line of QBs putting up huge numbers in McDaniels' offense while sucking elsewhere is really hurting Brady's image (of course it isn't because too many people are milking the goat that Brady held in that photograph to care, but whatever). The problem with Orton is that he kills you at the worst times, like his two failed 4th downs against Indy, or that fumbled snap and fumbled fumble recovery against the Jets. There is a limit to where Orton can take you, and that limit is about 8-8, unless you have the 2005 Bears defense behind him.


18.) Chad Henne (21) - 25, 3rd year


Although Chad Henne has fallen behind a certain other QB from the AFC East, he's still showing promise. His performance against the Patriots was a total nightmare, but in reality, he's not that bad. He still stares down his receivers too much, and relies too much on short routes, but that could change once the Dolphins get any viable deep threat. Brandon Marshall has really helped him to get consistent. What also helps his ranking is that he is still young. There is still room to grow physically, which is key.


17.) Carson Palmer (9) - 30, 8th year


I'm done defending him. He is nowhere near as bad as some people (Bill "I love Mad Men and Jersey Shore so much I would fuck Don Draper wearing Snooki's tan" Simmons, for instance) think he is, but he is clearly not, and probably never get to, where he was even in 2006-2007. I forgot that he decided not to have Tommy John surgery after the 2008 season, instead deciding to let his elbow heal naturally. That might be as big of a factor as that gruesome knee injury back in 2005, but that it more becuase if Kimo von Olhoffen never shredded Palmers' knee (and career), the Colts win the title that year. Fuck You Kimo.


16.) Sam Bradford (NR) - 23, 1st year


Man, I am totally on board with the Bradford Machine. He looks great. He has no weapons at all but random rookies from Missourri. He lost the teams incumbent No. 1 starter and then lost his security blanket and favorite target in Mark Clayton. All he did was beat the Chargers. He is getting a lot better pass protection than most #1 overall picks, but still. The guy is great. He inherited one of the least talented teams of any #1 overall pick ever, and has already TRIPLED his teams' win total from last season. Sign me up.


15.) Mark Sanchez (22) - 23, 2nd year


He has really impressed me this year becuase he is far less of a gunslinger than he was last year. His decision making was not good at all last season, and he has cleaned up that part of his game tremendously. He has a lot better pocket presence than last year as well. Sanchez can throw a beautiful deep ball, but has also improved his short and intermediate game as well. He is the most improved QB from 2009 to 2010. Well done, Sanchize.


14.) Tony Romo (15) - 30, 8th year


Here is the problem with Bromo. He has peaked. He's already 30 years old. There is no real getting better for him. He still has the same problems he always did. He has enough Roethlisberger-esque moments to make himself think that he can elude pressure, which he can't do. He doesn't read zone blitzes well at all (case in point, the Vikings intercepted him on pretty much the same zone blitz in last weeks game and the divisional playoff game last year). Romo has ability to throw a great deep ball, but struggles in the red zone too much. There is just not enough there to grow to go higher.


13.) Donovan McNabb (13) - 33, 12th year


He is getting better in Shanahan's system every week, which gives him nice potential. His strung of serious, but freak, injuries have probably kept him fresh, in the game-worn sense. McNabb still throws one of the best deep balls in the league, and still is maddeningly wildly accurate in short throws. McNabb remains one of the hardest QBs to sack in the NFL, which is amazing. He was able to fend off a serious Colts pass rush and deliver good throws. Obviously, he is up there in age, but still seems to have all the physical skills that he had five year ago, as far as his arm is concerned.


12.) Joe Flacco (6) - 25, 3rd year


I did actually believe that he was the 6th best QB in the league this time last year, but he has regressed. In crunch time, he turns into a shell and starts checking down way too much. He also relies way too much in his arm, failing to step up into a lot of throws. Flacco is still not that great at reading defenses. Flacco is young, and he can improve, but I am just not seeing it. He has good enough physical tools that he is this good without any of the things I mentioned above. Joe Flacco is now the overrated member of the 2008 QB draft class, which is a nice change from last season.


11.) Jay Cutler (8) - 27, 5th year


If he gets protection he is one of the better players, but he has seen so battered the last couple of years that he might turn into Marc Bulger (with better ability). When he did get time, in the Green Bay and Dallas games, he was great. He is not making the same mistakes last year. He seems to have truly learned that his physical ability will not take him everywhere. Cutler is still easily the best QB out of that draft class, and can win games for a team if he gets protection. He has even proved that he doesn't necessarily need good receivers to win games either. The dumbest notion in the league is that he wouldn't have been better than Orton if he was still with Denver.


10.) Brett Favre (16) - 41, 20th year


With Moss, he has started playing like he did in 2009. That Favre was a completely great player. He didn't take many chances. He did not force balls (NFC Championship Game excluded). Favre's arm is fine. If the Favre of the past two weeks was him with a bad elbow, then he would be the best QB in the league with a good elbow. Brett Favre is still one of the best QBs in this league if he gets enough protection, and that is the key. However, he is one of the better QBs in the league under heavy rush, which was showed for 58 minutes of that NFC Title Game.


9.) Matt Ryan (10) - 25, 3rd year


I love Matt Ryan. He is still only 25 so he has a couple years of growing to do physically, but he is a far more mentally progressed QB than Flacco. Matt Ryan was overrated as a rookie, but then became underrated because he was so overrated. He doesn't have the weapons Flacco does. He doesn't have the defense that Flacco does. He's won just as many games as Flacco. Matt Ryan's quick release allows him to get away with not great protection. He goes through his progressions quickly, and makes good decisions. He can get flustered when pressured, but that should get better as he gets more experienced.


8.) Matt Schaub (12) - 29, 7th year


He hasn't been hurt in two years, which is really the only the thing he had to prove. He is just as good as anyone now. He can lead comebacks as good as almost every other QB in the league. He has great rapport with Schaub. The biggest weakness in his game is that he gets flustered under pressure, and doesn't move well around the pocket. What aids this weakness is the fact that he is great on the run, which Kubiak uses a lot. He doesn't seem to have a great arm, but has fantastic accuracy, and touch. He's great.


7.) Aaron Rodgers (7) - 26, 6th year


He's a tad overrated now, as Steve Young already labelled him as a hall-of-famer. His play last year was great, but that Int% was in no way sustainable, and we have seen that this year. He's already matched his interception total from last year in six games. Here are the positives. He is the best thrower on the run in the league. His weird top down release allows him to easily throw running either side. Rodgers also has great touch. The one thing though is that he forces WAY too many balls into tight coverage, which results in quite a few incompletions.


6.) Eli Manning (11) - 29, 7th year


Since the rankings last year, no player has done more to cement his top-10 status more than Eli Manning. Sure, he has thrown 8 interceptions, but six of those were first in the hands of his receivers but bounced off and were picked. His completion percentage has rised four straight years. He doesn't have any more crap games, except for that Indy one where he got no protection at all. The Giants pass offense is now one of the most quietly formidable in the league. He's advanced so much since that 2007 postseason. He will never be his brother, but he's finally entrenched as a player of his own.


5.) Tom Brady (5) - 33, 11th year


He's about where he was last year. One nice quarter won't change anything. Tom is a QB who will do well late in games because defenses usually get conservative late in games. He is one of the best timing passers in the league, and will dominate with short and intermediate routes. Here is the concern. This was the first game since the opener against Buffalo in 2009 where he successfully led a 4th quarter comeback, and that was aided by the Bills fumbling a kickoff. He's nowhere near as consistent as he used to be.


4.) Philip Rivers (4) - 28, 7th year


Rivers' performance without Vincent Jackson has really made him grow up in my eyes. It may not show in the rankings, since the top-3 are all hall-of-fame QBs, but his continues to get better every year. He still has an ungodly throwing motion, but his incredible accuracy is astounding. He is one of the smartest QBs at identifying blitzers and coverages, and his headiness allows him to overcome massive athleticism deficiencies (speed, mainly). I am now at the point where I respect the hell out of him. His GM has done nothing right by him, by feuding with his best weapon, but he has put that team on his back, and if not for ungodly special teams, he would have a 4-2 or 5-1 team.


3.) Drew Brees (2) - 31, 10th year


How do you win a Super Bowl and drop? Not quite sure, but his performance this year has been less than. Brees from 2006-2008 would have been in the top-5. Brees in 2009 might have been a perfect storm of greatness. His numbers in 2010 are much more indicative of the QB from before, one who could put up great numbers, complete a hell of a lot of short passes, but throw untimely interceptions, and not see coverages as well as other great QBs. Having Sean Payton really helps though.


2.) Ben Roethlisberger (3) - 28, 7th year


He was great in his return, and by all accounts has started to become even more of a film-junkie than he was before. Physically, he is one of the best QBs EVER. His numbers have been great throughout his career. Early in his career, the Steelers ran it a lot, and his rate numbers (Y/A, cmp%, passer rating) were amazing. Then, they started to air it out, and his conventional numbers became amazing as well. He has played his whole career behind an average at best o-line, and has excelled. Roethlisberger may not be the greatest citizen in the world, or more accurately, he is nowhere near that, but as a QB, there is only one better in the league.


1.) Peyton Manning (1) - 34, 13th year


This guy. He's the 3rd oldest starting QB in the league, which might be cause for concern, but the all-time greats like Unitas, Elway, Montana, Marino and Favre aged pretty well physically. Mentally, he's as good as ever. Defenses are taking the deep ball away more and more, and he has become more and more cerebral. He rarely forces balls, and reads defenses about as well as anyone in the league. For a long time, the quip was "What would he do with a bad o-line?" The past two years have made it plainly obvious that he has had a bad o-line the whole time, but he's able to read blitzes and get rid of the ball that it doesn't matter. 2010 might be his strongest test, with all his receivers banged up, Dallas Clark potentially missing the rest of the season and Joe Addai injured. I'll be damned if he doesn't do what he always does, play amazingly well.


We'll see what the list looks like in 2011. The top-10 is pretty entrenched, but there is room for newbies. Just ask Eli Manning.

Week 7 NFL Power Rankings

Let's go to the rankings, because I have some things to say about these here 32 teams.

32.) Buffalo Bills (0-5)

Reason to Frown: The team stinks in almost every capacity. In years past, their defense was at least a bright spot. Their defense is horrible. They cannot rush the passer, which makes their average secondary look much worse than it really is. Their offense now only has two good players, and they have the most boring, irrelevant quarterback competition of all time.

Reason to Smile: The Sabres season has finally started!!!! Plus, a top draft pick is pretty good. Also, they can always just sleep to a tape recording of the 1990-1993 Bills, and remember what it was like to have a real team.


31.) Carolina Panthers (0-5)

Reason to Frown: Their QB battle has become hilariously bad, and their o-line has gotten a lot worse than it was before. Their defense has not been able to replace Julius Peppers, and Jon Beason has not translated well covering at WILL Linebacker for Thomas Davis. Also, their running game is making their fans and fantasy owners want to light themselves on fire.

Reason to Smile: Matt Moore is back. Hey, it worked in 2009! Their running game has been better in the past couple weeks, and at least they have UNC Basketball to look forward to (or Duke, or NC State, or some other team in that area).


30.) San Francisco 49ers (1-5)

Reason to Frown: Their offense is still average at best. Alex Smith is not getting any better, and their o-line has regressed. Their defense was good against the Raiders, but go back a week, and they stunk up the joint against the Eagles. Plus, Mike Singletary is still in their employ.

Reason to Smile: They won their last game, plus their baseball team might be headed to the World Series. Frank Gore proved that he is still a great player. The o-line did not block very well, but Gore had that patient speed thing going and still gashed the Raiders.


29.) Detroit Lions (1-5)

Reason to Frown: They lost another game that was close, which is maddening for a team that can barely win a game anyway. Their defensive line continues to play great, which is sad because the rest of that defense cannot stop Michigan St.

Reason to Smile: Matt Stafford is coming back, and if he finally stays healthy, they could win a couple games. Ndomakong Suh is overperforming the hype, and Calvin Johnson is back. Also, the players from last years draft are starting to perform, like Brandon Pettigrew.


28.) Arizona Cardinals (3-2)

Reason to Frown: They are the worst 3-2 team in the league, having been outscored tremendously in their two losses (41-7 and 41-10). Larry Fitzgerald is just not as explosive without Kurt Warner there, and Beanie Wells is having himself quite a sophomore slump. And then there is the fact that most likely Max Hall is in fact NOT something.

Reason to Smile: Their 3-2 in a division where 8-8 could win it, plus they have the scalp of the defending champions on their resume. Their defense finally put together a game to behold, which was expected from a defense with a lot of good, quality players. Max Hall might actually be something.


27.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)

Reason to Frown: Trent Fucking Edwards might be their starting QB next week, and Maurice Jones Drew has underperformed. I would be frowning too if my team had to endure such plight. Plus, they were just embarrassed on Monday Night Football, which bodes well for their ability to sell out any subsequent home game.

Reason to Smile: Hey, they are 3-3, and have an amazing propensity to suck 80% of the time, but only lose 50-60% of the time. They also beat the Colts, which is all the Jaguars Head Coach really cares about apparently. Plus, they have actually sold out every home game so far.


26.) Cleveland Browns (1-5)

Reason to Frown: They now might be missing their two best skill position players after Cribbs and Massaqquai took hard hits from James Harrison. They traded away their best running back because of what goes on in Eric Mangini's doghouse. Their keep close in games, but lose them all which has to be uncontrollably frustrating.

Reason to Smile: Colt McCoy looked great, considering the defense he was facing. I liked him coming in, but thought he needed a couple of years. He still probably could do with a year on the sidelines learning, but he performed admirably against the league's best defense.


25.) Denver Broncos (2-4)

Reason to Frown: They lost a game in which they deservedly got called for a 46 yard penalty on the other teams 4th and 6 from midfield. They lost a game becuase their center mistook his QB's left thigh for his hands on a snap. They traded a way Alphonso Smith, a guy they gave up a first round pick for, for a 6th round pick and he has been great in Detroit. They have a mad tyrant as a head coach.

Reason to Smile: Demmaryius Thomas might be a rare McDaniels' draft find, and I mean really, really rare. Their defense has played better than thought without Elvis Dumervil. Their offense at least can keep a fantasy team satisfied.


24.) Oakland Raiders (2-4)

Reason to Frown: They lost a game to an 0-5 team, not to mention lost the battle of the bay. They might start Kyle Boller because Gradkowski is hurt and Jason Campbell is JaMarcus-ian bad. Darren McFadden is still injured, and their run defense cannot plug gaps.

Reason to Smile: Michael Bush is a player, and Louis Murphy continues to improve. Zach Miller is turning into a top-10 tight end, and Richard Seymour is playing great. Their secondary still screws up coverages way too much, but Tyvon Branch is becoming a great player.


23.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)

Reason to Frown: They have played two good teams so far, and have been exposed to the tune of 69-19. They are from Tampa and play the Tampa-2 which was built to not give up big pass plays, and were against a team that couldn't smell a big pass play all year, and give up scores of them. Josh Freeman shows potential, but is maddeningly inconsistent.

Reason to Smile: Josh Freeman is more good than bad, and their top-2 picks from last years draft, Gerald McCoy and Brian Price have been good so far. They have an easy enough schedule that they could potentially go 8-8, and Mike Williams is a damn good young receiver.


22.) St. Louis Rams (3-3)

Reason to Frown: The Chargers are awful on the road, so that wasn't a great judgement game. The Rams still have a lack of wide receivers, as Dennarrio Alexander can't keep making these plays.

Reason to Smile: Sam Bradford. Need I say more. No Donnie Avery, no Mark Clayton. Fuck them all. Give him Dennarrio Alexander, and he beats the Chargers by playing great football. He's might not get the wins of a Flacco, Ryan or Sanchez, but to me he's the best rookie QB since Roethlisberger.


21.) Dallas Cowboys (1-4)

Reason to Frown: Are you kidding me. Is there a point of me listing all the reasons why Cowboys' fans should frown?

Reason to Smile: You can't keep outgaining your opponents by 100 yards and lose forever. Plus, the Super Bowls in your building this year. That should be fun. Of course your team won't be anywhere near that, but at least smile and act nice to the visiting fanbases of the two teams that aren't underachievers.


20.) Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

Reason to Frown: You are not going to play a flaccid Bears team all remaining eleven games. Plus, Matt Hasselbeck is an injury waiting to happen, and Pete Carroll might not be this effective if things get tough.

Reason to Smile: You are the best team in the worst division in football. Marshawn Lynch played great in his first game in Seattle. Your run defense and pass rush is really, and surprisingly, effective.


19.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)

Reason to Frown: You lost a game in which you led 21-7, and led by ten with four minutes to go. You still haven't beaten a team with a winning record, and the Chargers are only two games behind, plus still play you in San Diego. Also, Matt Cassel is still average.

Reason to Smile: They are still leading that division, and their running game is great. Plus, take a look at their schedule. Unless they start dropping their level of play considerably, they should be right there for that division.


18.) San Diego Chargers (2-4)

Reason to Frown: They didn't give up a special teams touchdown, and still lost. No excuses this time for the Chargers. Plus, what the hell was that with their pass blocking. The Rams are not good enough to get 7 sacks against anyone. That was embarrassing. And now Gates might be slightly hobbled next week.

Reason to Smile: They have 6 of their next 10 at home, where they are great, plus they have come back from worse before. They still have Phil Rivers who is now my number 4 QB in the league (QB Rankings coming Thursday), and he gives them a chance to win any game. Plus, they only had one kick blocked last week: PROGRESS!!!


17.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Reason to Frown: They just lost at home to the Buccaneers. Carson Palmer has never been the same since that knee injury in 2005, and their running game is nowhere near what it was in 2009. Plus, their defense has not been able to consistently get a pass rusher going.

Reason to Smile: They still are in all of their games, and you never know. Plus, they don't have the hardest schedule coming up, and TO has been pretty good. Carson Palmer has no where to go but up at this point, right??


Top half of the league, so it is time to build each team up, and then knock them down...


16.) Miami Dolphins (3-2)

Reason to Smile: Their pass rush is great. Bill Parcells might have retired, but his last great find, Cameron Wake, is dominant. Chad Henne looked good and Brandon Marshall continues to play great. Their special teams did not have another horrendous game, and they are a half game off of a wild card spot.

Reason to Frown: They are a game in the loss column behind the Pats and Jets, and still have to go to Foxboro and go to the Meadowlands. That is not the way to come back in a division. Plus, with Bill Parcells out of there, we should see how the brass reacts to adversity without the Big Tuna overseeing things.


15.) Green Bay Packers (3-3)

Reason to Smile: They get a chance to beat Brett Favre, and put the Vikings in a big hole. Aaron Rodgers seems to have finally realized who Greg Jennings is again, and their defense is getting Clay Matthews and Al Harris back.

Reason to Frown: Their pass protection is reverting back to its 2009 standards, and Jermichael Finley was placed on IR. They have lost 3 out of 4, and I don't think everyone still believes that this team is great and Aaron Rodgers is a future hall of famer. Isn't that right, Mr Steve Young from four weeks ago???


14.) Washington Redskins (3-3)

Reason to Smile: They barely lost to the Colts, and have already beaten the Eagles (who they still get in their house), Packers and Cowboys. Ryan Torain looks like a solid player, and Donovan McNabb gets better in that system each game.

Reason to Frown: They lost in a game in which they recovered all three fumbles. That was pure luck that they didn't get blown out, big time. Chris Cooley got concussed, and their pass protection is still not good. Of course, Albert Haynesworth is still not playing. Mike Shanahan is a good coach, but I don't think it is the best idea to have your best player in your doghouse.


13.) Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

Reason to Smile: They catch the Packers at a great time, and with the Bears losing two out of three, are just one loss behind the Bears for first place in their division. Brett Favre has been playing mistake free football, and Randy Moss has been playing well so far (of course, no one would know that since the media only cares about Dieon Branch and his 10.3 yards per catch in New England.

Reason to Frown: They have to go to Green Bay, which is not easy, and their o-line is still having problems. If they do lose to Green Bay, that makes their game in Foxboro almost a must win. There has been recent bad news on Sidney Rice's injury and there is fear he may not return this season.


12.) Tennessee Titans (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They did not play their a game, were missing their starting QB for three quarters, had Chris Johnson play badly for a good 3.5 quarters, and still went on the road and won by 27. They can crush bad teams, which is always a good sign.

Reason to Frown: The Young injury might be another step to finally crowning Vince Young as injury prone, as well as drama-prone. Chris Johnson continues to be slightly lackluster, and their receivers did not have the best game. You don't get to face Trent Edwards all the time.


11.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)

Reason to Smile: Kevin Kolb played his second straight game, and might finally have given the Eagles fans the benefit of not having to cheer for a reviled dog killer. Shady McCoy continues to have a great season, and Jeremy Maclin is having the opposite of a sophomore slump. Their defense is playing at a high level.

Reason to Frown: Andy Reid seems intent on making there being a QB controversy when he doesn't have to. It is maddening. First Kolb plays lousy, and you go to Vick. Fine. Then Kolb plays well, and you still might go to Vick??? Come on. It's not like Andy Reid is picking between his two favorite Cheesesteak places? Also, DeSean might be out a while.


10.) Chicago Bears (4-2)

Reason to Smile: Their division will probably end up being nowhere as hard as initially thought, and they really cannot play that bad again. Their defense is still top notch. Of course, all of this pales in comparison to this little fact: Devin Hester.... You are Fucking Ridiculous... AGAIN. Devin Hester is back, and I can't be more excited.

Reason to Frown: Mike Martz intends to get Jay Cutler killed, and Matt Forte is back in his "I will suck 95% of the time" phase. It is not a good phase, for anyone. Plus, they just lost to the fucking Seahawks, who couldn't beat most Division 1A colleges on the road.


9.) Houston Texans (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They won another close game, which reinforces the fact that this is a different Texans team. They have balls, they have guts. They can play close games, and they have the heart to come back in them too. Andre Johnson continues to beast the entire league on a regular basis at this point. Of course, half the media thinks that Dieon Branch is better, but that is neither here nor there.

Reason to Frown: Not only did their defense make Matt Cassel look good, it lost DeMeco Ryans for the year. After Mario Williams, he's the best player on that defense, and his solid presence in the middle allows them to utitlize Brian Cushing as a blitzer. His loss will be felt.


8.) Atlanta Falcons (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They still have that win over New Orleans in New Orleans on their belt, and they haven't lost anyone major to injury. They also have three straight at home coming up, as well as 6 out of 10 at home here on out, and one of those road games is in a dome, one is against the Panthers, and one is in Tampa. They'll be fine.

Reason to Frown: They were pushed around by the Eagles. That was a game that was a good test for them. Beat a good, but not great, team in their building outdoors, and then I would easily have them as the best NFC team. They failed, and failed miserably. Plus, is Roddy White still playing?


7.) New England Patriots (4-1)

Reason to Smile: They avenged that Ravens playoff loss nicely, and Dieon Branch looked fine back in New England. Their young defense was able to force five straight punts to finish that game. Of course, John Harbuagh had the balls of a hummingbird in that game, and Joe Flacco took the checkdown 99.78% of the time late, but five straight punts is five straight punts.

Reason to Frown: He had his moments, but those underneath routes were not as easy for Brady, plus his deepest throw was a 20 yarder to Hernandez. That was it. Their o-line looked average at best. Plus, their schedule is tough, man. Most of the tough games are in Foxboro, but they needed overtime to beat the Ravens there. The Colts won't punt on 4th and inches from midfield.


6.) New Orleans Saints (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They finally scored 30 points and dominated a team, not to mention a team that was 3-1 and was at home. Drew Brees looked locked in. Their defense stepped up and performed well for once. That was a 2009 Saints performance.

Reason to Frown: They still haven't gone 2009 Saints yet. The 2009 Saints score 40+ in that game. Their running game cannot count on great games from Ivory forever, and they have a tough schedule coming up. They need Pierre Thomas and/or Reggie Bush back, and soon. Of course, finding a kicker and hiring Darren Sharper would help as well.


5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They are 4-2 despite playing three road games against all three 1-loss teams in the league, and going 2-1 in those games. Joe Flacco looked good for 3.5 quarters of that game, and the Anquan Boldin addition has really helped his ability. The o-line in pass protection was great against the Pats.

Reason to Frown: That was a horrible loss. John Harbuagh has to trust his running game. Rice wasn't getting more than like 6 yards all game, but he was rarely getting stopped behind the line. Trust your team to smash it in there and get a yard. Plus, that defensed played WAY too passively late in that game, and that is a trend.


4.) New York Giants (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They are now tied for first in the entire conference, and their d-line has put together four straight great games since their debaccle in Indy. Their running game continues to play well, and Brandon Jacobs is playing like a football player again. Eli Manning is quietly having a great year (considering five of those interceptions first hit his receiver). They are the best team in a so far down-NFC.

Reason to Frown: They let the Lions hang around in that game. They should have put them away easily. This is harping on a small point, but when you are this high in the rankings, you should be able to put away a team like that.


3.) Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

Reason to Smile: They are already tied for first in that division, and get the bye week at the best time. They should have Donald Brown, Gary Brackett, Anthony Gonzalez and Jacob Lacey all back and rested and healthy for the Houston game in two weeks. Plus, their other dinged up players get some rest. Their offense has been great all year, and their defense has put together back-to-back solid games.

Reason to Frown: Joe Addai might (or might not... you never know with the Colts) have a serious injury. His presence and importance cannot be stated enough. This could be a huge blow. After Manning, Clark and Freeney, he or Wayne is the biggest potential loss. Plus, the HAVE to stop fumbling. It cost them the Jaguars game, and made that Redskin game seem far close than it actually was.


2.) New York Jets (5-1)

Reason to Smile: They went on the road in a tough place to play, and gutted out a win with a 4th quarter comeback. Great teams win those games. They are also, by win percentage, the best team in the NFL right now, and have already beaten the Pats. Mark Sanchez was able to put together a comeback in a game he wasn't playing well, which is great for his confidence.

Reason to Frown: There is something up with that defense. Obviously, Darrelle Revis is hurt, which has hurt that pass defense, but they allowed 145 yards on the ground to the worst rushing team in the NFL. That was inexcusably bad rush defense.


1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)

Reason to Smile: They are 4-1, have the best defense in the league, a defense that is totally healthy, have one of the best running backs, and got their star QB back and didn't miss a beat. They also get their chance to play both the Jets and Pats, so they really control their own destiny. That defense is scary good.

Reason to Frown: The Pirates suck. Honestly, that is my only reason to frown for them. I guess you could say they should have made Colt McCoy look worse, but that is really grasping for straws. They are great.


Not Ridiculously but Still Too Early Playoff Predictions

(Just as a disclaimer, these are not a replication of the power rankings above, but use each teams future schedule as a way of determining what teams I think will make it)


AFC
1.) Pittsburgh 13-3
2.) Indianapolis 13-3
3.) New York 12-4
4.) San Diego 9-7
5.) Houston 11-5
6.) Baltimore 11-5


NFC
1.) New York 12-4
2.) Chicago 12-4
3.) New Orleans 11-5
4.) Seattle 9-7
5.) Atlanta 11-5
6.) Minnesota 10-6


'Till Next Time.

Roy, Where art Thou?

There I was, watching my baseball hero, my baseball idol, basically the reason why I love baseball, pitching in front of a great crowd in a critical postseason game. He was on the mound, soaking it all in. He lives for these games, and I lived, waiting five years, for one of these games. Just like he did so many times before, Roy Oswalt picked up the baseball, fired strikes, shut down the opposing team, and won a playoff game. All the while, I could not help thinking, "This is not how it was supposed to turn out." I expected to be enthralled watching Roy Oswalt pitch a gem in a postseason game, and I was, but I was nowhere near as excited as I thought I would be. If anything, seeing Roy Oswalt pitch his way to the headlines in another uniform was one of the harder experiences of my sports fan life.

Roy Oswalt is still a great pitcher, is still my favorite, and I hope to God that he wins the World Series this year, because he deserves it for being the most consistently great pitcher of the last decade. But he is no longer our great pitcher. He is the guy who got away. He was supposed to be an Astro for life. The Astros team that was one of the best in the NL from 2001-2006 was his team, built around him and pitching first. He was the frontman of the team, the image of the team. He was everything that we Astros' fans loved about the 2005 NL Pennant winning Astros. Tough, gritty, talented and most of all, resilient. That Astros team was our team. Every fan probably has that one year with their team that it all came together, that it all was perfect. As a Colts fan, that was the 2005 regular season, and the 2006 postseason. If they happened in the same year, that would have been great, but they happened 13 months apart, so it was fine. As an Astros fan, that was 2005. By then, I was a huge Astros fan, and more importantly a larger fan of Roy Oswalt, our young, talented, brilliant 20-game winner from 2004. The team was gutted at the start of 2005, starting the season 15-30 with Lance Berkman hobbling and Carlos Beltran weaseling his way to disappointing the Mets fans. That is when Roy became the guy.

The Astros finished the 2005 regular season on a 74-43 run, with Oswalt winning 20 games for the second straight year, and this time doing it with an ERA under 3.00. Oswalt was now a star, and he was headed for the great stage. In the 2005 NLCS, against the best team in the majors that year (the Cardinals, who went 101-61, and had the NL MVP and Cy Young Award Winner), Oswalt had two starts. Both came in a game following an Astros loss. Both were in St. Louis. Both were 7 inning, one run affairs. Game 2 was important to change the tone of the series, Game 6 was legendary.

Mitch Williams said at the top of FOX's broadcast that this game 2 of the 2010 NLCS was the biggest game of Roy Oswalt's career. This enraged me. Sure, the Astros are now a down-trodden, midget of a franchise, barely hanging on to any shred of dignity they may still have, but that doesn't mean that what Roy Oswalt did in Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS was any less impressive. That was my team, my pitcher, my game, and my greatest baseball memory. One game after Pujols' epic home run to steal Game 5 when the Astros were one out away from winning the NLCS, Oswalt toed the rubber in St. Louis. Bill Simmons called the series over, saying the Astros would never be able to recover from losing game 5. Roy Oswalt probably doesn't know who Bill Simmons is, and that is not the only reason I love him.

In the first inning, Oswalt faced Pujols, and quickly got to an 0-2 count. The next pitch effectively ended the series. Oswalt threw a 95 mph fastball up and in. Pujols swung, missed and fell over to his knees and struck out. Oswalt had won, beating the man that haunted the Astros, and breaking the spirit of the Cardinals. Oswalt threw 7 innings of 3 hit 8 strikeout ball to win the series for the Astros. He won the NLCS MVP in that series, with 14 innings, 8 hits, 15 strikeouts, and two wins in St. Louis against the NL's best offense. Yeah, Mitch Williams, I think he's pitched bigger games.

This is why I don't feel the same watching Oswalt pitch brilliantly in the spotlight again, because he's not on my team. We loved him. We appreciated the beauty of watching that man pitch even if the team was 45-57. The Phillies' fans see him as a rented hand, a mercenary brought on to win a ring. We saw him as a brother, a friend, a hero. Roy Oswalt was the best Astros pitcher maybe in team history (Nolan Ryan can probably dispute that). Roy Oswalt was our favorite pitcher. The Astros from 2006-2009 were not any good (the 2008 team was a smoke and mirrors 86-76), but we always felt that at least every fifth day, we had the best team, because we had Roy.

The only Roy getting credit is Halladay. Halladay is a great pitcher, and his no-hitter was great. But the sign of a truly great one is what Oswalt did in Game 2. After Halladay lost, leaving the Phillies in an unenviable position heading into game 2, Oswalt did what a true ace does. He stopped the bleeding. He came out and retired the first 14 batters of the game. He gave up three hits all night, and struck out nine. He had the whole crowd behind him. But it was the wrong crowd. It is the crowd that still loves Halladay more, and still loves Hamels more. Loving Hamels more is fine, since he's their Oswalt.

Oswalt was the homegrown guy, the prospect and then the rookie we saw grow up, mature and dominate. The 2005 Astros had two other aces, in Clemens and Pettitte, but Oswalt was the "ace", and the hometown favorite because he was with us from the start. He wasn't brought in here when the going was good, and he was going to stay when the going was bad, unlike Pettitte who fled back to his mommy in the Bronx. When Oswalt finally, quietly asked for a trade, we all defended him, and agreed with him, because all of us wanted a trade from the Astros too. Roy got his wish, and we got our wish, to watch him pitch great in the biggest of games again. We got to see him pitch in front of a crowd and raise the energy of a ballpark again, we just all wish it was our ballpark.

Week 6 NFL Picks

Internet was down for the weekend, so I was never able to get out my picks. Needless to say, I did not do very well.

St. Louis (+8.5) over San Diego
Houston (-4.5) over Kansas City
Baltimore (+2.5) over New England
New Orleans (-4) over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (-2) over Atlanta
New York (n) (-10.5) over Detroit
Chicago (-6) over Seattle
Miami (+3) over Green Bay
Pittsburgh (-12) over Cleveland
New York (a) (-3.5) over Denver
Oakland (+8.5) over San Francisco
Minnesota (-1.5) over Dallas
Indianapolis (-3.5) over Washington

and MNF: Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville

So far, I am 8-5, but I came so close to doing so much better, especially in that Indy game, in which if they play that game 10 times, Indy wins by at least a touchdown in 8 of them. Anyway, just wanted to get the picks up, for consistency sake.

Week 6 NFL Power Rankings

How much do I dislike Favre: his overthrows disallowed me to go 11-3. That would have been my personal best, which would have been nice after my personal worst the week before, but alas, Brett Favre became Brett Favre a couple minutes too early. Anyway, I went 10-4. Not bad, I must say. I even got most of my upset picks right. Anyway, let's get to the power rankings.


32.) Buffalo Bills (0-5)

I thought that this would be the week they get off the schnied. The Bills had a 10 point lead against a team that usually quits on the road (more on that later). They were then outscored 36-16. What was good was that their red zone defense forced 5 field goals. What was bad was that they gave up that many touchdowns anyway. They stink. I don't even know who to blame. They were awful before Chan Gailey came on board.


31.) Carolina Panthers (0-5)

Usually teams don't lose when they hold the opposing QBs to 8-19, with 51 yards and four interceptions. Forget not losing, they lost by 17, at home. They lost to Todd Collins in a game where Todd Collins actually performed below his excruciatingly low expectations. Jimmy Clausen is awful. In his defense, he has played two tough defenses, but Clausen needs to play better.


30.) San Francisco 49ers (0-5)

They actually did a "We Want Carr" chant. Don't they know better. In Joe Montana first season as a starter, they nearly benched him for Steve DeBerg. Thankfully, Bill Walsh had some sense, and it seems that Mike Singletary has that sense. Sadly, Mike Singletary doesn't have anything else in common with Bill Walsh. The 49ers have probably been the first team to ever be amazingly disappointing when no one even thought they would win 11 games. The 49ers defense is not close to what it was a year ago. I don't think Aubrayo Franklin has done anything yet this year, except become a member of Wong's Buffet.


29.) St. Louis Rams (2-3)

The loss of Mark Clayton is huge. He was finally living up to his talent, and became the go-to-guy for Bradford, but now that is all gone. Bradford is now without his top two wide receivers. That is not the way for a rookie Quarterback to get acclimated for the dog days of his first NFL Season. Their defense was a mess on Sunday. They could do nothing to slow down the great Shaun Hill. I'm happy that they already beat last years win total, because there might not be a lot more of those coming their way.


28.) Cleveland Browns (1-4)

They played Atlanta, a real good football team, well. Their offense is not that great, but in a couple weeks, we will be longing for the Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme show. Colt McCoy is not ready for the NFL. The Browns get the Steelers, which should be a nice "Welcome to the NFL" for McCoy. Their defense is still playing well, but the talent is not there yet.


27.) Arizona Cardinals (3-2)

They have got to be one of the worst 3-2 teams that ever beat the defending Super Bowl Champions. Their offense was a lot better than I thought it would have been with Max Hall starting, but they barely scored. They can play at home, but that might not be good enough when better teams come into Arizona, as well as teams that don't fail to recover every fumble. The Cardinals defense can play very good if they want to, but the problem is that they don't want to all that often.


26.) Detroit Lions (1-4)

That was impressive, but the Rams seemed to have no intent on playing that game. The Calvin Johnson shoulder injury is depressing. That man is one of the best receivers in the league easily, but now his shoulder is acting up. He has not been the most healthy receiver over the years, so this might be reoccurring some more.


25.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

After Arizona, they are the worst 3-2 team in the league. However, I am happy they won. When they were down 10-0, I was seriously having a breakdown. If they lost to the Bills, the fact that they played the Colts tough but played like dogshit against everyone else might have been one of the more reprehensible acts in the NFL in years. Thankfully, they won, but still. They obviously don't give the same effort against teams that are not the Indianapolis Colts. Fuck them.


24.) Denver Broncos (2-3)

The Broncos have played two good teams this year, and lost to both by 14. The Broncos are not a very good football team. They are not as bad as I thought they would be, because Orton is playing about as well as he can, and McDaniels can call offense, but their defense is horrible. Their ability to make big plays on defense is next to nothing.


23.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

They need to prove that their flat loss in St. Louis was a mirage. They are in the most winnable division in the league, and have the best home-field advantage in the division. They need to put the hammer down, win eight games, and win that division (I legitimately think that 8-8 will win the NFC West). The Seahawks trading Branch was interesting. He was definitely not worth a 4th round pick, so it was a good deal in that respect, but it forces Golden Tate and Mike Williams to big the top receivers.


22.) Oakland Raiders (2-3)

I really have my pulse on this team. Their defense needs to be more consistent. Luckily for the Raiders, the Chargers are the best passing offense they will play other than the Colts. The Raiders have the ability to pressure the quarterback at any times. Michael Bush looked solid, and their 1-2 punch should be dynamite once McFadden comes back. Jason Campbell looked like a whole new player. I am guessing they will continue to start Campbell. They have winnable games coming up, so if they are really true about their division aspirations, they should win them.


21.) Miami Dolphins (2-2)

It is time for Chad Henne to show who he really is. They can't drop too many more games. They have quite a few tough games coming up, which will allow for a good barometer as to just how good they are really. Their defense should be better. Their two young corners haven't really progressed that much from last year, which is a concern.


20.) Dallas Cowboys (1-3)

That was an abhorrently bad loss. They were probably looking ahead of the Titans, but what was strange is that they lost that game twice. They lost it the first time after Romo was continually sacked and they were down 17-3. That might have been due to them overlooking the Titans. However, they seemed to then stop doing that, coming back to 17-17, only to "overlook" them once again. They just cannot close games, and they cannot consistently make any plays on offense or defense. They are a team who is a 7/10 on both offense on defense, but you need to be an 8 on something.


19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

All credit to them. The Bengals let them back in the game, and they took that opportunity and rode with it. The Buccaneers are probably not legitimate playoff fodder, but they have made the NFC that much more interesting. The Buccaneers defense is still not where it needs to be, but that NFC is more wide open than everyone thought. Why not the Bucs? Freeman is blossoming right under our eyes.


18.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

The Bengals cannot give games like that away. They play up or down to their competition, so it wouldn't shock me if they beat Pittsburgh once or twice, but they cannot lose these games. My man crush on them has finally ended, as I will for once NOT project them to make the playoffs, but I am open to them surprising me again. The Bengals are not good enough to blow these winnable games. It isn't all on Palmer, since that last interception was not his fault, but he's nowhere near where he was even last year.


17.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)

They impressed me in losing to the Colts. Romeo Crennel is coaching that defense excellently. Their defense will be able to hold almost every team in check. The Chiefs offense, however, is not that good. Dwayne Bowe seemed to have peaked four years ago. Matt Cassel is just not good enough to make the playoffs in the NFL. Their running game couldn't explode the way it did against the other teams, but that was a really hard game for them to win.


16.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

Their defense has to close games better. They let the 49ers stick around in that game, when they never should have come close. The Eagles offense finally clicked under Kolb, which makes for some interesting decisions come when Mike Vick is healthy. What I really like is that Kolb's starting has allowed Brent Celek to actually do something. He was a dimension missing in that offense, and missing from my fantasy team.


15.) New Orleans Saints (3-2)

That was despicable. I thought this team would have a Super Bowl hangover, since they seemed too proud and happy of their achievement, but even that was too much. Their offense is just not clicking. The biggest difference I have noticed is that the protection is now just average, instead of great, and that their wide receivers just aren't getting separation, and not getting nearly as open as they did last year. Everything seems forced now, which is the total opposite of last year, when their offense looked so, so easy.


14.) Tennessee Titans (3-2)

That was a nice win. Their d-line is absolutely dominant right now. They allow yards on the ground, but they can pressure the QB as good as any other team in the NFL. Chris Johnson finally had another big game, which was nice to see. Stephen Tulloch was a monster yesterday as well. They have a good, solid team, which might be enough to compete for that last playoff spot in the AFC.


13.) San Diego Chargers (2-3)

The Chargers always start like this, but the difference this year is that all their losses can be explained one way: Special Teams. Their special teams is just awful, but the good thing is that they cannot get too much worse (any worse, really) on special team. Philip Rivers seems to not miss Vincent Jackson at all, and Antonio Gates is a fucking God. Their defense, when the opposition actually decides to pass-block, can be handled, but it is not easy.


12.) Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

They'll be fine. They have a tough schedule coming up, but none of their upcoming games is against a team better than them. The Jets had a short field all day, so the fact that the Vikings held the Jets to five field goals and one touchdown is actually a good thing. I am worried about their pass rush, but the Jets o-line is just that good. We'll see if their d-line struggles to put pressure against the Packers in two weeks. Peterson looks good, and Randy Moss looks good. That was a real tough game for them.


11.) New England Patriots (3-1)

They dropped a spot during the bye, and that is almost exclusively because of their trade, essentially, of Randy Moss for Deion Branch. I'm sorry, that is a gigantic step down. Randy Moss may take plays off, but at least he has plays to take off. Branch is a far-past-the-hill, injury-prone receiver. I worry about their offense, especially against a team like the Ravens. The Patriots are not that good at defense, lest not we forget. Their next three games will tell us a lot about this team.


10.) Green Bay Packers (3-2)

I am assuming that Rodgers misses max one game, but I fear it might be more. Their team is battered, but as long as Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are healthy, they have the defense to limit almost every team to less than 24. Their offense is struggling. More than that, Aaron Rodgers is throwing too many dangerous passes, too many interceptions. Green Bay needs to win more close games. Aaron Rodgers has only two 4th-quarter comebacks in his career, which is not the track-record you want.


9.) Houston Texans (3-2)

That was really, really bad. They have now lost their last two home games, but they still have an easy enough schedule to make salad with the rest of this season. The Texans have to get Andre Johnson back healthy soon. Despite 5 catches and 95 yards, he was noticeably not 100%. I am also wondering if Owen Daniels is really healed from that ACL to anything near 100%. Matt Schaub was throwing to him all the time, and now it seems like he is barely anywhere near Reliant Stadium come Sunday.


8.) Washington Redskins (3-2)

They might have barely beaten any team they have beaten, but there is something special to what they are doing. Donovan McNabb plays like shit for 45 minutes, but comes alive late. Their defense is able to force turnovers, and get enough pressure to force punts. Their team is not really playing in the image of Mike Shanahan, but, oddly, more in the image of Wade Phillips. Shanahan and Phillips should trade spots, as each others team represents their type of team more.


7.) New York Giants (3-2)

Looks like they were fine after all. Going 1-2 is not the end of the world. They have been dominant for two straight weeks, limiting each of their last two opponents to under 200 total yards. Limiting the Bears is not that hard considering the second half was played with Todd Collins and Caleb Hannie. Limiting the Texans to 195 yards? That is quite amazing. The Giants defense has been great since the waxing the Colts handed them. Hakeem Nicks is a future all-pro.


6.) Chicago Bears (4-1)

I still believe that this is a team that could end up either 12-4 or 13-3. They have an easy enough schedule going forward. Cutler is supposedly coming back this week, which will help this come true. The Bears defense is great. Isreal Idonije is benefitting tremendously with Julius Peppers on the other side, and he abused Travelle Wharton, a quality player. The Bears are really good, as well as criminally underrated.


5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

They are good. Scary thing is that Ed Reed is coming back in two weeks, and Ray Rice is finally starting to get it going again. Willis McGahee is still chugging along. He's seemingly been washed up about 20 times, but he's still there, gutting out yards. Joe Flacco is still not playing at a high level, but he should have a fun game against that great New England defense. The Ravens are getting good pressure on the QB, and absolutely destroying teams running games, which allows them to hide a still green secondary.


4.) Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

What other team has to live up to the standards that the Colts do? The Colts played a 3-0 team with an extra week to prepare, and beat them by 10 and held them out of the endzone. For any other team, that would have been enough. For the Colts, people ask all over the league "What's wrong with the Colts?" They had an off day on offense, but their defense was great. The Colts will be fine. The best news is that Anthony Gonzalez is practicing again, made even better because I am sick of his Pierre Garcon and his chronic drops.


3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-1)

They went on the road, brought out their 'B' game against a team that is tough to blow out when not playing your 'A' game, and they won by ten. That was a very impressive performance. Kroy Biermann is turning out to be one hell of a player. Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White is starting to really heat up, and even Michael Turner had a great game. The Falcons defense is also playing a lot better than either of the last two years.


2.) New York Jets (4-1)

Their offense is really coming together. They drop way too many balls, as I counted at least five drops by Jets' receivers that would have ended up as 1st downs. Tomlinson is seriously good right now. I thought his newfound energy would last about three weeks, but this is getting serious. Antonio Cromartie has been really good so far, but Revis should not have been out there.


1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

They should not drop any after not playing. With Ben Roethlisberger coming back, their offense should get better. The Steelers defense is as good as ever. They are actually a bit underreported due to all this Jet-gasming, Brett Favre and his dong-ing, and Ravens-ing that the media is doing right now. The Steelers are going to get on a run most likely, and there are not too many games on that schedule that look like potential losses.


Absurdly, Wickedly Early 2010 Playoff Projections

AFC
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3
2.) Indianapolis Colts 13-3
3.) New York Jets 12-4
4.) San Diego Chargers 10-6
5.) Baltimore Ravens 11-5
6.) Houston Texans 10-6


NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) Chicago Bears 12-4
3.) New York Giants 11-5
4.) Seattle Seahawks 8-8
5.) Minnesota Vikings (that's right) 10-6
6.) New Orleans Saints 10-6

Week 5 NFL Picks

I was miserable at picking games last week. Utterly horrible. It was one of my worst performances of my handicapping career. Thank God I did not decide to place any bets with the bookie that week (the bookie in my mind, of course). I have to redeem myself, much like the Bears after that lousy performance. I'll try my best, but like Cutler, I am still a bit concussed after each game I picked wrong repeatedly hit me on the head.

Last Week: 5-9

Year-to-Date Record: 33-27-2


Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

This is a large line for a team that just went on the road and won, in the Broncos. However, playing the second straight physical road game might be hard for a pretty finnesse-type team like the Broncos. If you remember, the Broncos started out 6-0 last year, then went to Baltimore. They were crushed, and were never the same again. Obviously, they are nowhere near 6-0, but they are riding high off that 4th quarter comeback against the Titans. The Ravens are playing just their second home game, and would probably like to play a bit better than they did in that initial one, which they had to come back in the 4th against the Browns. The Ravens are built to beat the Broncos, and they might finally get that running game going.

Broncos 14 Ravens 24 (BAL)


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (PK)

Not sure why this is a pick. As far as I know, no major player is out for either team, but it probably doesn't matter. The Jaguars are set up perfectly for a let down. They won their Super Bowl in beating the Colts, and unlike Houston (who also won their Super Bowl by beating the Colts) aren't really in contention for that actual Super Bowl. The Bills won't have many chances to win games. They have this, the Lions game and the Browns game. That's about it. The Bills are home, which did not serve them too well last week, but I keep coming back to the fact that the Jaguars, who don't travel well anyway, spent so much in beating the Colts, that it might be hard to focus for this Bills team.

Jaguars 17 Bills 20 (BUF)


Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7)

This line has come down since the start of the week. That makes picking the Colts an easier pick. The Colts have played one home game this year, and that was off a loss. They destroyed the Giants 38-14 in a game that was nowhere near that close. The worry is that the Chiefs running game could gash the Colts, but the Colts run defense is usually a hell of a lot better at home than on the road. Plus, the Colts usually aren't crushed on the ground by the good running teams (with the exception of that Miami game last year). They held Chris Johnson in check both times last year. The Colts offense should be able to shred the Chiefs defense. The only good offense the Chiefs played was the Chargers in a rainstorm, and still the Chargers moved the ball effectively. The Colts come back home and right the ship. They need to.

Chiefs 13 Colts 34 (IND)


St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3)

The Rams can't win three in a row, can they? Shaun Hill has been productive in his time starting for Stafford, and Megatron should go off against the Rams secondary. The Lions defense has been pretty stable, giving up only three big plays a game (instead of seventeen). The Rams haven't won a road game in God knows how long (its been a fucking long time). The Lions are better than 0-4, and actually sold out this game, as even their fans see this as an opportunity to pick up a win. I do too.

Rams 17 Lions 24 (DET)


Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

If the Falcons are serious contenders for "Best Team in the NFC" they win this game, and win it easily. The Falcons need to learn to not mess around with games. They are 3-1, but they could easily be 1-3. The Browns are a sneaky, frisky team that has a habit of pulling off games like this. Expect to see a big dose of Peyton Hillis this game, but the Falcons offense should be able to outscore anything the Hillis machine throws up. Three seems like a pessimistic margin of victory. The Falcons are appreciably better than the Browns.

Falcons 27 Browns 17 (ATL)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals may not score that many points, because the Bucs defense can shut down the running game, and I don't trust Palmer to be that consistent against an above average secondary when he has no running help. Luckily for me, and the Bengals, their defense should eat Josh Freeman alive. Freeman struggled mightily against the Steelers went they went to man coverage, which is what the Bengals use most of the time. Freeman hasn't faced a duo of corners this good in his life. He will get a nice welcome to what the NFL really is, which is a nice finishing lesson after he learned just how good a pass rush can be when he played the Steelers.

Buccaneers 10 Bengals 24 (CIN)


Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-1)

The Panthers are favored because of Cutler missing the game. Todd Collins, of 2007 Redskins fame, is the starting QB, which is not good news. Better news is that the Panthers are not very good. Their running game finally got going, but the Bears are one of the best run defenses in the league. Jimmy Clausen did not look all that good against the Saints, and the Bears defense is better. Plus, there are reports of Steve Smith not being able to establish the rules and regulations of the game with Jimmy Clausen right now. The fact that the Panthers are favored makes this an easy choice. Backup QBs can win one game, especially if that game is against a team that is 0-4.

Bears 17 Panthers 7 (CHI)


Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins

The Redskins have been able to play well against good teams. They were a field goal away from beating the Texans, and their defense was solid against both Dallas and Philadelphia. The Redskins have given up a ton of yards, but not that many points. Do you know what team excels at putting up tons of yards, but not that many points (other than the Ravens and Cowboys): The Green Bay Rodgers. That team that came laughably close to clusterfucklossing to the Lions. The Redskins need to make a statement out of their division, because somehow, despite being essentially in first place with a 2-0 division record, the Redskins are getting no respect. That all changes.

Packers 20 Redskins 24 (WAS)


New York Giants @ Houston Texans (-3)

Andre Johnson is still hit or miss, which makes me lean towards the Giants. I am skeptical that their d-line really is back, because the Bears o-lineman seemed to have had their arms cryogenically frozen, but their 10 sack performance is impressive regardless of opponent. The Texans are suddenly a bit overrated. They are 3-1, but have one of the worst defenses in the league. They lead the league in yards allowed, in the way that they have allowed the most yards of any team. They especially suck at Pass defense, which should make Eli happy. The Giants seem like really live dogs. What really makes me want to pick the Giants is the fact that Tiki called them out. They love to fuck with Tiki. This might not be as good as when they won a Super Bowl without his jailbait-loving ass, but it is close.

Giants 27 Texans 21 (NYG)


New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals stink. The Cardinals are starting Max Hall. The Cardinals were outgained by over 400 yards in the last two weeks combined. The Cardinals were just sacked 9 times by a team that entered the game with only 6 sacks. The Saints are good in domes. The Saints should explode one of these weeks, and the Cardinals gave up 41 points twice already. The Saints need to make a statement. The Saints blew this team out 45-14 when Warner was playing. The math is the math.

Saints 34 Cardinals 14 (NO)


San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Oakland Raiders

The Riaders pull of one huge upset at home every year (some years more than one). The Raiders are substantially better than that 1-3 record. They should be 2-2. They can finally consistently move the ball. The Chargers have a myriad of problems on the road, including the fact that they are 0-2 on the road, become turnover-happy and give up special teams touchdowns. The Raiders defense has been able to control the Chargers in the past, and I think they do just enough to finally beat the Chargers.

Chargers 17 Raiders 21 (OAK)


Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The Cowboys have o-line problems. They have only given up one sack, but Romo has been pressure much more than that. The Titans have one of the best d-lines in the league. The Cowboy rush defense is good enough to contain CJ2K (who won't sniff 2K this year). The Titans offense needs to play better though, they need to at least attempt to air it out a little more. The Cowboys are off a bye, so they should be rested. The Titans are coming off of a tough loss, so they should be jacked up. The Cowboys probably win this one, since if they don't Jerry might kill them if they start 0-2 in their building, but it will be close.

Titans 17 Cowboys 20 (TEN)


Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

This is the worst Sunday Night Game in a long, long time. What is more bastardized, the 49ers are favored despite being 0-4. Either way, I will give this game the same amount of time that the NBC people took in considering this as a game. Who gives a fuck. Also, how the hell did the 49ers get two home prime-time games this year?

Eagles 28 49ers 21 (PHI)


Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (-4)

The Jets are riding high 3-1. The Vikings are riding high with Randy Moss in tow. I don't think Darrelle Revis is 100%. The Vikings have motivation. The Vikings defense is quietly one of the best in the league. I can't see the Vikings starting 1-3. I just can't. Plus, Randy Moss is beast in prime-time. He's great when first coming to a team. Moss is also motivated to crush Revis, again. I like the Vikings to pull an upset.

Vikings 24 Jets 20 (MIN)


Enjoy the Games!!!!