2014 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

The best weekend of the year, guys. It is here, Divisional Weekend. Four good games, three networks, 5 Super Bowl winning QBs, and the guy who will win at least one. They're all here on Saturday and Sunday Night!!

(A6)  Baltimore Ravens  (10-6)  @  (A1)  New England Patriots  (12-4)

Sat. 4:35  -  NBC    |    Patriots -7

State of the Teams: The Ravens have had some good success against the Patriots in recent years, don't you know? They have done some good work in this matchup, winning two of the three playoff games and close in every regular season game, apart form last year's 41-7 disaster. The Ravens also enter healthier than they've been in a while. They should get Eugene Monroe back, which should shore up their one large weakness on offense (LT). Their secondary is still injury riddled, but those riddles happened a while ago now, and they've settled on Rashaan Melvin on one side and Lardarius Webb, who's looking better each week, on the other. They've found a formula that somewhat works behind that great front. The Patriots have absolutely no injury concerns at all, though. Barely anyone's even 'questionable', and they usually put up half their lineup on the injury report. Edelman returns after missing his last two games with a concussion (and then rest). The defense is fully healthy. We are all healthy, living in Bill Belichick's world. Quietly, their offense struggled at times down the stretch, having 6 bad halves of their last 7 that they tried. The one expection was a scary 15-minute stretch against Miami to turn a 14-13 halftime score into a 41-13 laugher, but they struggled against San Diego, the Jets and the one half that the 1st-team was in there against Buffalo. They're not exactly entering the playoffs stronger than the team up in Denver everyone is picking apart.

The Matchup: We have evidence the Ravens match up well against the Patriots, or at least did from 2009-2012. They have a d-line that has won individual matchups against all members of the Patriots o-line, and a linebacker/safety grouping that can flood the middle and do a great job of anticipating the Patriots bread-and-butter routes. They also have an offense that can, when they play well, run and pass with equal efficiency and attack the Patriots deep. The difference this time is the Patriots of 2014 are not the Patriots of 2009-2012. They have a defense that matches up well with the Ravens. I don't think the Patriots are an inherently better team than the 2011-12 teams (DVOA would say they are not), but they are a different team. Their offense still does not mesh well with the Ravens. The Patriots can't really pass deep, and the Ravens are the #3 by DVOA defense on passes shorter than 15 yards (basically 90% of the Patriots passing offense), and the Patriots interior line struggles, and the Ravens can throw 8 different guys that are all good to very good (including Ngata, Suggs, who are noted Patriots beaters). The edges for the Patriots are on the other side. The Patriots struggle against other WRs and TEs. While Owen Daniels has played well in that scheme, he's not going to win many individual matchups, and the Ravens have no 3rd option. Torrey Smith and Steve Smith are not going to be nearly as good against that corner duo. I would like this matchup so much so even one year ago, but bringing in Browner and Revis can win them this game.

The Pick: I would love to pick the Ravens here. I'm not for a few reasons. First, they're a really public underdog, and the Patriots can get up for these types of games. The Ravens are seemingly being tabbed to win this game far more than they were in teh 2012 AFC Championship Game, and the Patriots already showed them up once last year in the 41-7 win (honestly, it was 27-7 before two NE defensive TDs against Tyrod Taylor at QB). The Patriots are better, healthier and have matchup edges. Sadly, I think they'll go to yet another AFC Championship Game.

Ravens 16  Patriots 24  (NE -7)

(N4)  Carolina Panthers  (7-8-1)  @   (N1)  Seattle Seahawks  (12-4)

Sat. 8:15  -  FOX    |    Seahawks -10.5

State of the Teams: The big injury actually happened in the week between games. It was the practice foot injury to Star Loutulelei, the massive, active and vitally important DT for the Panthers. His up and down play really mirrored the Panthers defense. He's not the best (or 2nd, or 3rd) best player on that defense, but against a historically good running team like Seattle, he may be the most important. He was really coming on lately, including a giant game against Atlanta in the division clincher, and it may be easy to state that any hopes the Panthers had just went out the window. They may actually have Philly Brown, and the Cam injury watch quieted as the week went on, but this team will miss Loutulelei dearly. The Seahwks are essentially really health and well set for this game. They enter the playoffs #1 in DVOA for the 3rd straight season, and even #1 in wDVOA (which counts more recent games more) for the 3rd year in a row. They are really good, really hungry, and gave up just 39 points in the last six games. Yes, those are against some pretty bad teams (49ersx2, Cardsx2, Rams, Eagles w/ Sanchez), but 39 points is kind of scary.

The Matchup: The last three times these teams played, the Seahawks won all three, but they won 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9 in the past three years. They trailed all three of those games in the 2nd half, and needed either a DeAngelo Williams fumble in the red zone (2013) and a Russell Wilson scramble-led drive (2014) to win. There are two caveats for all those games. First is they were all in Carolina, which is a large difference. The second, though, is more important: the Seahawks won all three! The Panthers played them tough each time in their own building, but they lost all of them. Now, the 2014 game was definitely a draw, but they were outplayed for a while in the 2013 game. The other issue is the Seahawks are just a better version of the Ravens. Their pass rush is about as good, especially without Loutulelei, and their LBs are about as good, but their secondary is far better. The Seahawks also have a good rushing QB, but they have a far better rushing QB right now (some of that is injuries), and they have more weapons and an overall better offense. The Panthers don't have a clear matchup other than I don't expect the Seahawks to run away mainly because I don't think they can score enough. The Seahawks are better everywhere, but there is something to those close games. It really means we have to quantify how much those games were close because they were in Carolina, or how much the loss of Loutulelei will impact the Seahawks easiest path to win (running).

The Pick: The game that screams out as similar to me is the last game the Seahawks just played, their Week 17 win against the Rams. That Rams team controlled the line of scrimmage (possible that Carolina does that), they had a 6-0 lead at the half, but their overall inability to move the ball and turnovers ruined the game for them. The Seahawks won comfortably, but it wasn't a blowout. I can see the same happening here, but I think the Panthers the way they are currently playing, are better than that Rams team, better enough to cover one of the higher lines we've seen in the playoffs in a while.

Panthers 13  Seahawks 20  (CAR +10.5)

(N3)  Dallas Cowboys  (12-4)   @   (N2)  Green Bay Packers  (12-4)

Sun. 1:05  -  FOX    |    Packers -6.5

The State of the Teams: The big question coming into this one is how much Aaron Rodgers' calf injury will impact him. We haven't really dealt with a clear and readily apparent QB injury before a playoff game in a while. Rodgers looked severely limited when he came back in the game against the Lions. He was still effective throwing, but he basically only stayed in the pocket. Against a team that doesn't rush all that well in Dallas that may not be a huge issue, but it changes the dynamism of the Packers offense. The Packers otherwise are healthy, but when their best player is in question, that changes everything. The Packers defense has really stabilized, and while it looked awful in the first 20 minutes against the Lions, in general they've done well in their Tampa-2 scheme. They are coached well, and while there are seemingly no great players, they did quietly rank #2 in the NFL in takeaways, and are consistent in getting them. The Cowboys o-line was awful, but that will most likely be an outlier rather than the new status quo. The only real injury to worry about is Rolando McClain, who left with an 'illness' (concussion). Nothing really defines the astounding nature of the Cowboys defense than Rolando McClain being a key cog.

The Matchup: To me, the key to this matchup is can the Cowboys offense absolutely win their matchup against the Packers to the point that it neutralizes Green Bay's offense. There is a recipe for them to do it. They have a great running game matching up against a not-so-good Packers rush defense. They are certainly in a more advantageous spot here than against the Lions and their historically good rush defense. Their o-line is bad against blitzes, but they'll likely be more prepared for that against a team that likes to blitz. Dez Bryant can win his matchup against anyone, and the Packers really struggle against TEs. The Cowboys offense can win that matchup; they really should win that matchup. The key is can they win in terms of scoring 7 instead of 3, and putting up 35 minutes. The key to hiding that Cowboys defense is literally hiding them, in terms of keeping them on the sidelines. Obviously, the other matchup comes down to Rodgers effectiveness. If he's close to 100%, the Packers will likely roll. If he's not, and he's likely not, they might struggle at times. That red zone offense hasn't been great this year and may be worse with a gimpy Rodgers removing his running threat.

The Pick: I have to pick an upset, and while I'm not confident of how easy this looks, given Rodgers' injury situation, this is my pick. The Cowboys offense is their defense, and their offense is good enough to win that individual matchup and dominate TOP. They are definitely better suited to do it here than against the Lions. They match up better here, where their running game can win the matchups, where Romo can get protection, and their offense can hide a defense that, in a limited time on field, can play well against a potentially injured Romo.

Cowboys 27  Packers 24  (DAL +6.5)

(A4)  Indianapolis Colts  (11-5)  @  (A2)  Denver Broncos  (12-4)

Sun. 4:45  -  CBS    |    Broncos -7

The State of the Teams: The Broncos last had a week off in Week 4, the week after their 'This is the Super Bowl Preview!' OT loss against the Seahawks. They had to live through Sanders having a concussion, Welker doing nothing, Julius Thomas getting hurt, and the O-Line shuffling around, but are now healthy. No real contributor is hurt in any way, other than for the people that think Manning is hurt (which I do not think is true). The Broncos are as healthy as they can be, and I'm hoping that week off gave Manning time to rest tat thigh. The Colts, on the other hand, have slowly back-sled into the team they were in 2012-13. The once decent o-line has become injury-riddled and bad. Their WRs are hurting with Hilton still nursing an injury and Wayne being marginalized. The defense is better than it has been in the past few years, but the offense can't really be counted on. Their running game is awful, as the only guy that can run also fumbles and is bad in pass protection. The Colts were a good team for a lot of this season, but injuries, for the umpteenth year in Indianapolis, have ruined this team.

The Mathcup: The Colts one kryptonite on offense is a good pass rush. Luck struggles against pass rush when he can't escape, and the Broncos are good at that. They generally do a great job of rushing while keeping their integrity and not letting mobile QBs get off. The Broncos defense on paper is great, by conventional stats and advanced. They give up bad 3rd downs, and that can definitely be an issue against a team that likes to throw deep, but the Broncos are one of the best defenses against deep balls. The Broncos defense will also shut down any hope of a running game. The more interesting question is the other side. Despite giving up 33 points, they did a great job against Denver last year, and did an average job this year (gave up 31), but it is hard to think they'll do it again. Over the year, the Colts have shown no ability to rush the passer against a good offense. Hell, they haven't shown any ability to do anything against a good offense. The Colts will likely put Vontae on Demaryius. The key here will be if Julius Thomas is finally healthy. If he is, then he can have a huge game against the bad team against TEs. The Colts do have one real advantage, though. They are quite good on Special Teams, while the Broncos, like every Manning team ever, is awful.

The Pick: This is the least competitive on paper. The Colts in Week 5 had a decent shot, but the Colts in Week 19 have a far less shot unless one of two things happen. First, if Manning is truly hurt, which I don't think he is and I'm not factoring in here, and second, if Andrew Luck has just a inhuman game, but I don't see either as likely. The Broncos are a better team, and what is odd is I haven't even mentioned the biggest name in Denver: CJ Anderson. The running game should work well against the Colts, and do well to perpetuate the 'Manning is hurt' myth.

Colts 20  Broncos 34  (DEN -7)

2014 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend Review

I've picked playoff games in the 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons. I've only gone 4-0 once, the divisional round in 2009. That was probably as tough as this past week, but I won my great upset pick, putting up the Jets to beat the 13-3 Chargers as 9.5-point underdogs.


Wild Card Picks:

Cardinals 10  @  Panthers 23  (CAR -6)  (CORRECT)
Ravens 23  @  Steelers 20  (BAL +3)  (CORRECT)
Bengals 16  @  Colts 27  (IND -3.5)  (CORRECT)
Lions 20  @  Cowboys 24  (DET +7.5)  (CORRECT)

Week: 4-0

Not only did I get all the picks right, I got the exact score right with Lions @ Cowboys. I got the score for the Arizona @ Carolina game in the Cincy @ Indy game, and nearly did the reverse (10-26 instead of 10-23 what I picked).


Player of the Week - Luke Kuechly (MLB - CAR)

This wasn't the best set of Wild Card Games, but there were some standout performances, none better than Luke Kuechly's to me. He was a deserving Defensive Player of the Year last year, and while he wasn't quite as good, he's been as good the last few games. I realize the Cardinals offense stinks, but he still played out of his mind, ruining screens and deep passes, brilliantly reading Lindley on that huge interception to hold the 27-14 lead, and generally being a monster. If the Panthers have any chance, he will have to do the same in Seattle, if not more.

Runner-Up: Andrew Luck (QB - IND)

Luck was my choice last year, and by all accounts he was better this year. Now, the Bengals lack of pass rush and injuries did not provide much resistance, but Andrew Luck somehow managed to be better than his stats of 31-44 for 376 yards. He had multiple drops on deep throws, and a TD taken away by a holding penalty. Those things do happen, I guess. Luck continues to get better, and showed amazing restraint by checking down to Boom Herron far more than even the Luck from three weeks ago would have.


Goat of the Week - Drew Butler (P - ARZ)

The two teams that lost badly were just not as good, and both the Steelers and Lions had no obvious worst player, so I'm going to give it to the player that was probably obejctively the worst player last week. When you have a performance like Drew Butler did, it goes beyond reason. He was bad during the season, but didn't approach that. Butler was lucky to get 35 yards on a punt, hitting three less than 30. Only one of those was altered by an unlucky negative bounce, too. The Panthers were better, but getting to start on the 40 each drive really helped. Butler didn't lose that game, but considering what field position would have done, he definitely helped.

Runner-Up: Pete Morelli's Crew

Doing a quick look down, this is the only award I am giving to anyone in this game, which is sad given it was by far the best game from the weekend, and due to the picked-up flag it becomes more memorable than it should be. Pete Morelli probably cost himself a shot at the Super Bowl (which many had intimated he was in line for) by being way too hasty to announce the penalty. His own crew botched the call, missing two obvious penalties and debating the third obvious one, adn then not flagging Dez Bryant. The Cowboys may win anyway, but that was a trainwreck.


Surprise of the Week - The Ravens Secondary

It was odd that the loss of Rashaan Melvin meant anything, but when he got banged up, Ravens' backers got nervous. That alone indicates how banged up, nameless, and pedestrian the Ravens secondary was this year. That said, they played reasonably well, and for them, reasonably well is about their limit. None were great, but they were able to hang with one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Antonio Brown had a few big plays, but was held in relative check. Markus Wheaton was invisible, and Martavis Bryant had limited impact. The best player to me was Darian Stewart, who played quite nicely as the deep safety. I was expecting the Ravens front to dominate, but for the back end to relatively hold up was a great bonus.

Runner-Up: The Panthers Other Receivers

We all know about Kelvin Benjamin, the talented youngster who makes some highlight catches and makes some awful drops, but on the whole is just a nice player. what we didn't know about was the others. Philly Brown had a really nice game before leaving for injury. Jerrico Cotchery was not targeted much, but did well when he was. Finally, Fozzy Whittaker had the play of the game. Without natural talent aside from Benjamin and Olsen, the Panthers have to turn to these types of players on offense to really move the ball, and it worked once again.


Disappointment of the Week - The Steelers Creativity

I'm not a huge Todd Haley fan and I think he neutered Roethlisberger's best qualities in 2012 and 2013. I can't say his offense didn't work this year, it was amazing it times. However, without Leveon Bell, Haley gave up on the run and decided to rotate three running backs that he was never planning on using anyway. The Steelers tried to use screens, but they could have used Brown as a runner, or tried more intermediate throws. The Steelers just didn't have much creativity to their offense after having a year where that really didn't happen.

Runner-Up: Us for expecting anything different from Arizona and Cincinnati

It's confusing, but I was disappointed at myself at being disappointed at Arizona and Cincinnati. Let's pity the Cardinals, a team that manufactured a 9-1 start behind two competent QBs (and one good QB in Palmer) and a defense that made plays. They were a deep bomb offense that played balls to the wall, and won some close games. That team is gone and let's give them a moment of silence. For the Bengals, let's not get upset and ask questions on why this team can't win a playoff game. This wasn't losing to TJ Yates like they did in 2011, or losing to the 9-7 Chargers last year after going 8-0 at home, and losing 10-27. This Bengals team was flawed, injured and had a terrible matchup. It's sad, but not angry, and not worth thinking too much about.


Team Performance of the Week - The Panthers Defense

Once again, it is easy to dismiss what Carolina did because it was Arizona, and it was Ryan Lindley, but they held a team in the playoffs to under 100 yards. They gave up 50 yards net passing for the entire game. Their pass rush dominated, their linebackers dominated. Their secondary played well again. They never gave the Cardinals a real chance, despite Arizona lucking into 14 points. The Panthers defense resembled the unit that was so dominant in 2013, a team that was so good in the front seven there was literally no room to throw. Awesome job by one of my favorite pet units.

Runner-Up: The Ravens Offense

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the only teams to rank in the Top-8 in Points for and against. They are a good offense. In a tough environment, with their two normal starting OTs down, the Ravens were great. From that first long TD drive built on the run, to Flacco seamlessly playing the Kubiak offense, to Steve Smith continuing to be the ballsiest, toughest dude in the NFL, the Ravens played an A game on the road in a Wild Card game. Considering the Steelers were probably the best home team, the performance of the Ravens was just great.


Team Laydown of the Week - The Bengals Pass Defense

The Bengals have a bad rush defense. They had a bad offense due to personnel injuries. Yet, through that, they had a good, deep secondary. They could cover. They were still a Top-10 pass defense. That pass defense was just bad. Now, there were injuries to Rey Maualuga (their top cover linebacker), and Dre Kirkpatrick, but they even let Hakeem Nicks beat them. If there is one area of the Bengals to really criticize, it isn't Marvin or Andy Dalton, it is that pass defense.

Runner-Up: The Lions 2nd Half

I wanted to touch on that game one more time, so I'm putting the whole Lions here. I'm still not totally sure how the Lions went from 17-7 up, with just one bad play, to losing. I actually put it up mostly to coaching conservatism that took over that team in the 2nd half. They ran the ball to no real success. They didn't throw deep at all. They punted on 4th and 1 when another first down takes two minutes off and likely puts them in field goal range, and, maybe most crucially, they stopped blitzing on defense. Their blitz packages were working brilliantly in the 1st half and it mostly disappeared, and now the Lions have.


Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground - It's the Ice Bowl!, and did you know Peyton played for the Colts?

This may be the most easily hype-able Divisional Round ever, especially on Sunday. Packers @ Cowboys is probably one of the most hype-able Divisional Round games since Romo and the Cowboys last played in this round, travelling to Minnesota to play Brett Favre. Then again, the Colts and Broncos is about as easy as it gets as well. Manning against the Colts is one of the easiest sells ever. Why I think this is overrated is that I don't think these are two games close on paper. The Cowboys don't match up well with Green Bay, given their defensive deficiencies against a higher-powered offense. Also, unless Manning is truly hurt, or Andrew Luck decides to play like Aaron Rodgers circa 2011, Indy really doesn't match up well.

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground - This Should be a Fun Two Days, not just One

That said, those are nice games and good storylines, but so are the two games on Saturday, and those are nice as well. Ravens @ Patriots is an easy sell, given the recent history between those two teams. Some of the punch is gone with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis gone, but there are some good additions, like Steve Smith. The Ravens do match up reasonably well, just because the they are good at everything. Along with their historical edges, the Ravens are just a good team. In the night, Carolina is not a good team, but has played like one over the last few weeks. The last time they've played the Seahawks, they've lost 12-16, 7-12 and 9-13. Yes, they lost all three and yes, those were all in Carolina, but I think the Panthers can keep this close.


More to Come This Week.

2014 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

(N5)  Arizona Cardinals  (11-5)  @  (N4)  Carolina Panthers  (7-8-1)

Sat. 4:35 - ESPN   |    Carolina -6

The State of the Teams: It's odd that the team that is 7-8-1 has not really faced many questions over their losing record. Last time around, the 2010 Seahawks were hammered over and over about being under .500, to the point where it was insanely motivating. Here, the 11-5 team is getting questioned on their viability with Ryan Lindley. Beyond just having Lindley, the Cardinals are in a rough spot. They're just 2-4 after their 9-1 start, with their once great defense showing cracks, which is not surprising when they know if the opponent scores 20 the game is likely over. The once great run defense has struggled mightily, and their offensive has no running game to take any pressure off of Ryan Lindley. For the Panthers, they are indeed under .500, but 7-8-1 doesn't look too bad when they were once 3-8-1. They bookended the wining streak with 31-point beatdowns of their top two division rivals. The Panthers have gotten healthier, and more importantly, steadier all over their team, with some stability now on their o-line, and lineup changes having the same effect in their secondary. The Panthers are definitely a better team than that 2010 Seahawks group.

The Matchup: The Cardinals main strength that they still have as they are among the most effective teams blitzing with their enviable secondary depth, and they are still the best team in the NFL at stuffing runs for losses or no gain. The problem is that they have to blitz because their pass rush was decimated by injury, and they have started giving up way too many big runs when the opponent breaks that initial push. The Panthers, on the other hand, are a perfect opposite; they have no secondary depth and against many teams could be picked apart. That said, they match up really well with the Cardinals offense (most people do right now), as their front has gotten back to Top-10 level, and can push Lindley, and can swallow up whatever run game they try. The Cardinals like to push it deep, but the Panthers zone coverage is far better on deep throws than intermediate routes. The intermediate game is just not in the Cardinals arsenal right now. 

The Pick: It was basically implied with what I wrote, but this is a good spot for the Panthers. They're at home, getting an awful QB and a team missing a bunch of players. Then there are all those matchup edges that they have. The Panthers defense is not their 2013 unit, but it is close enough that I would be shocked if Arizona can get to 20 without a Defense or Special Teams TD added. That is one matchup edge for the Cardinals, but their Special Teams are not good enough to cover up disadvantages on both sides of the ball. Bruce Arians is a terrific coach, and the Cardinals had a wonderful season, but I don't think they have the horses to win this one.

Cardinals 10  Panthers 23  (CAR -6)

(A6)  Baltimore Ravens  (10-6)  @  (A3)  Pittsburgh Steelers  (11-5)

Sat. 8:05 - NBC    |    Steelers -3

The State of the Teams: The big injury news is Leveon Bell out for the Steelers. That should be a sizable loss, as he was the most dynamic dual threat RB in the NFL, and a brilliant outlet option for Roethlisberger. Bell was Top-10 in DVOA and DYAR both rushing and receiver for a RB. He was somewhat of a non-factor in the Steelers win, but just losing the threat of a run really hurts the Steelers offense. The Ravens enter with no major new injuries, key word being new as their secondary was ravaged by injuries through the season to almost comedic proportions. They will get Haloti Ngata back off of a 4-game suspension, which should go further to strengthen their front seven. The issues with the Ravens mainly is their offensive sluggishness over the past few weeks, scoring 20, 13 and 20 over their past three games. Of course, the Ravens were sluggish in a similar fashion heading into the 2012 playoffs. The Steelers defense has improved in recent weeks as their young linebackers continue to make strides. They'll need that level of defensive performance at least going forward.

The Matchup: This rivalry remains intense, but some of the major players have been replaced over the years. Reed and Lewis are gone for the Ravens, while Hines Ward is gone for Pittsburgh. What remains are two fairly evenly matched teams that have somewhat heated intensity between each other. The Steelers are basically unlike any Steelers team from years past. The closest comp was in 2009, but even then they had a Top-5 defense. This year, by DVOA, the Steelers had the #30 defense. It was better in recent weeks, but that is a very recent trend, and that underscores just how bad they were for most of the season. The Steelers, on the other hand, have the #2 offensive DVOA, placing highly against the pass and run. A key edge for them is their deep passing game, which should work given their improved o-line protection and the injuries in the Ravens secondary. The Ravens do match up well with that Pittsburgh defense, a defenisve unit that struggles to stop runs consistently. It is just one of those games were no team really seems to have much of a matchup edge, with both teams matching strength on weakness to a similar degree.

The Pick: I really have no idea in this game, and the line reflects that. With Leveon Bell out these teams are about as close to even as you can get, though in different ways. The Ravens were among the most consistent teams in the NFL, mostly playing good football each week of the year. The Steelers are somewhat the opposite, with some notable struggles and more notable successes. The Ravens haven't beaten the Steelers in the playoffs in recent years, but this is probably the best chance they'll have. Even the weather is helping as a driving rainstorm should help the defense heavy Ravens. I'll go with them, but I'm not confident about that pick at all.

Ravens 23  Steelers 20  (BAL +3)

 

(A5)  Cincinnati Bengals  (10-5-1)  @  (A4)  Indianapolis Colts  (11-5)

Sun. 1:05 - CBS    |     Colts -3.5

The State of the Teams: The Bengals haven't won a playoff game with Andy Dalton and/or Marvin Lewis, haven't you heard? After getting one of those at home last year, they go back on the road to play an AFC South team, just like they did in 2011 and 2012. The Bengals defense is not close to as good as it has been the past three years, and the offense hasn't come close to reaching the heights it did at times last year. That all said, this team has won 9, 10, 11 and 10 games over the past four seasons and skinned some pretty big cats, beating the Broncos, Patriots, Packers and Saints over the past two years. The Colts on the other side put up their third straight 11-win season, but while that may indicate stagnation, their peripherals (DVOA, scoring differential) improved each year. The defense has hit a nice level where they can ruin mediocre to bad offenses, and they come in healthy apart from a late injury to Gosder Cherilus. I guess I can stop burying the lede here, the Bengals will likely be without AJ Green, which is a huge loss. They've already lost Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones. I feel bad for Andy Dalton, as he'll face a giant mountain of criticism if they fall to 0-4 in the playoffs.

The Matchup: The Colts struggle against good offenses. Really struggle, to the tune of 40 points and 450 yards per game. What's nice is the Bengals, without AJ Green, is not a great offense right now. They absolutely shut down the Bengals the first time around, forcing 8-straight three and outs. That won't happen again, but what made the Colts successful on defense the first time should as well. The Bengals pass protection improved as the season went on, but blitz teams like the Colts will give them issues. The Colts have an awful run game, but the Bengals can match them with a bad run defense, and if the Colts continue to bite the bullet and utilize Herron more than Trent Richardson, that run game goes from awful to mediocre. The Colts passing game should have a nice matchup with their TEs against the soft Bengals linebackers. They'll need too to combat the depth of the Bengals secondary. These teams are almost comically similar in DVOA, but the Colts are notably better at home, going 7-1 in Lucas Oil Stadium for a 3rd straight year. 

The Pick: The Colts are better at home, dominated them the first time around, and the other side hasn't won a playoff game since 1990 and are missing their best player. Why is this line so low? You can make the case that without AJ Green, the Colts are better even if this game was in Cincinnati. I'm not sure what the deal is here. It seems to obvious. The Colts have the matchup edges against the Bengals offense, and can score in that building against all teams not named the Baltimore Ravens. I don't really see how the Bengals win, but that number is driving me nuts right now.

Bengals 16  Colts 27  (IND -3.5)

(N6)  Detroit Lions  (11-5)  @  (N3)  Dallas Cowboys  (12-4)

Sun. 4:45 - FOX    |    Cowboys -7.5

 The State of the Teams: I guess the sharps are thinking the Cowboys are entering this game far better, as this line has only gone up since it opened. The Lions are fully healthy, with Calvin over his midseason injury woes, and Ndamukong Suh un-suspended. The Lions defense has been consistent all year long, never giving up more than 350 yards passing and only allowing one 100-yard rusher. The Lions have a historically good rush defense, keyed by that boy Suh. The Cowboys are fully healthy as well, and playing so, so well right now. They finished December scoring 40 points per game. The did finish just 4-4 at home (meaning they went 8-0 on the road), but their last home game was a 42-7 woodshed-ing of the Colts. The Cowboys defense has stayed reasonably consistent in that 15-20th best defense in the NFL way. The largest outlier really is the Lions offense, which has the same personnel that was among the most voluminous from 2011-2013, but has really struggled in 2014. Stafford's general inaccuracy has hurt them, but so have drops and the lack of a run game. That run game should get worse with Larry Wofford out, though Riaola's return may alleviate some of that.

The Matchup: The Cowboys run more than any team in the NFL other than Seattle. They ran it better than any team in the NFL other than Seattle. Giving Demarco Murray 392 carries may have some troubling long-term effects, but for now he ended the year about as good as he started it. The Cowboys do have a mightily effective passing game, but they've rarely had to rely on it. They might have to given how good that Lions front is. The Lions will throw their main strength, their interior d-line, against the Cowboys relative strength. That matchup may decide this game. On the other side, what happens when two mediocre units match? The Cowboys basically throw 11 average guys out there with good coaching and fundamentals, which works. The Lions do have the ability to explode for 30 points or 400 yards, but that just has not been happening in 2014. The Cowboys will likely go zone, which is a great way to go against an erratic QB that depends on hitting a few deep throws. 

The Pick: This line is really high, there's no real other way to say it. I'm shocked the Cowboys are getting so much love. They are at home, and are holistically the better team, but the Lions aren't a great matchup for them. The Lions can play the Cowboys running game to a draw, and Tony Romo and that passing attack just haven't had to do this year. The Cowboys defense is not great, but the Lions aren't really the team to expose that. I do think the Cowboys are better and I would pick them to win but going against a TD number is not a smart decision when you have a defense first team that can keep the Lions within 2 possessions for most of the game.

Lions 20  Cowboys 24  (DET +7.5)

2014 NFL Playoffs: NFC Playoff Primer

It's that great time of year... NFL PLAYOFF TIME. And to get us started, here's my yearly Playoff Primer, the one 40,000 word document guaranteed to be fully wrong within 14 days. As a preview each team capsule has the following information:

Stat Breakdown giving their points and yards for and against, and then their Football Outsiders DVOA numbers overall, and for offense, defense and Special Teams.

The capsule also includes write-ups on their offense and defense, QB and coaching staffs, with a concluding ranking of 1-6, compared to their NFC (and AFC, for the next post) playoff comrades.

Finally, for teams seeded 6-3, I'll give a brief look a which of the Top-2 seeds I think they can beat over the other.

As a note, I utilize Football Outsiders' stats a lot, including their overall DVOA figures, DVOA and DYAR figures for players, O-Line and D-Line stats, and their drive stats. All of these are readily available at FootballOutsiders.com, a site that should be a must-visit for any real NFL fan in the 21st Century. I have not used any stats that are for their paid Premium members (of which I am), but they reveal almost too much great information.

Here We Go...

6.) Detroit Lions  (11-5  =  321-282)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 321 ptf (22nd), 282 pta (3rd), +39 ptd (13th), 5,452 ydf (19th), 4815 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: +4.4% team (14th), -3.7% off (19th), -13.8% def (3rd), -5.7% st (31st)

Offense: This was so much harder to rank in the AFC, where all the offenses are between league average to Top-5 in the NFL. The NFC is far more dichotic. The Lions start off as a team that is basically the exact opposite of the last Lions team to make the playoffs. That team scored 474 points, averaged nearly 400 yards per game, and Matthew Stafford had a 97.2 passer rating with 41 TDs. This year's team scored 150 fewer points, gained 900 fewer yards, and Stafford's rating fell to 85.7. Now, Calvin Johnson was injured for part of the year, and the TEs of the Lions offense cratered, but there is no good reason why the Lions offense is this bad. But it is. We have 16 games of evidence to show that the Lions are at best an average offense. There is nothing the Lions are really bad in, but they are just average at seemingly everything apart from not turning the ball over. They are between 15-20 in DVOA in the following: passing, rushing, pass protection, run blocking, yards/drive, points/drive, and red zone offense. If Calvin is healthy they can potentially be dangerous as they've been able to integrate Golden Tate into the offense well, but it is hard to really count on any of that happening. If only they could have combined the 2011 Lions Offense with this year's team. Rank: 5th

Defense: The Lions were the #1 defense by DVOA for the first 10-12 weeks or so. They were never historically good by DVOA, but were consistently excellent. Then, the Bills overtook them for a few weeks, bouyed by Buffalo beating down the Packers. Finally, the Seahawks took over the top spot, but the Lions still do something better than any team, and something historically good: stop the run. Now, that was much more useful when the Ravens did it in 2000 (that's the only rush defense with a higher DVOA), but the Lions being able to essentially rule out the run game with their front is important. The Lions secondary is a lot better this year with the improvements from their corners, and Deandre Levy has been arguably a Top-5 coverage linebacker. The Lions defense is solid at all levels. They have fits where they don't get enough pressure, which can allow teams to throw underneath to reasonable success, but they tackle well. The Lions are surprisingly average in the red zone, but are top-10 in all the other drive stats, including forcing takeaways, something not true of even the better Jim Schwartz-led defenses With Suh un-suspended, and Nick Fairley potentially returning, this is a great defense that would rank #1 in the AFC. Unortunately, they are in the NFC, but Suh and Co., are still good enough to allow for a middling offense to be good enough to win games.. Rank: 2nd

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford is between the 15th and 10th best QB in the NFL. He was closer to Top-5 in 2011, but that seems to have been his peak season unless something changes. Stafford is still just 27, but he seems to really plateaued mentally as a QB. Stafford himself ranked 15th in DYAR, but just 20th in DVOA. Some of that can be explained away by injuries to the o-line and a gimpy/injured Megatron, but that is not what you expect given the bevy of the rest of the weapons at Stafford's disposal. His one playoff performance was a decent game, but his team was overmatched. He should have the confidence this time that the Lions won't allow the most yards ever in a playoff game. Rank: 5th

Coaching: Jim Caldwell flew under the radar as a 1st-year coach to lead his team to success. He inherited a talented-but-flawed team that went 11-21 in the past two seasons. His team played sharper, more determined and less reckless. If he were anyone other than the man last seen failing in Indianapolis and calling random timeouts in playoff games, people would care. I don't think Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi has done anything to make me trust him, though. Defensive Coordinator Terryl Austin is the opposite though. I would love to rank them higher, but the NFC is loaded with good coaching staffs. Rank: 6th.

Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Packers: I don't think the Lions can beat either, but I think they have a better shot to beat the Packers. That would require winning in Lambeau, a place where that franchise hasn't won since the pre-Favre days. Still, their defense knows the rhythms of that Packers passing offense reasonably well right now, generally holding them under 30. Their offense has struggled all year, but if you need them to break out and score 27 points, it is far more likely they do that against the Packers than Seahawks.


5.) Arizona Cardinals  (11-5  =  310-299)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 310 ptf (24th), 299 pta (5th), +11 ptd (16th), 5,116 ydf (24th), 5,891 yda (24th)
= Outsiders: -6.0% team (22nd), -9.3% off (23rd), -5.5% def (7th), -2.2% st (21st)

Offense: Despite giving no plaudits to the Lions offense, they aren't close to the worst offense in the NFC Playoffs. That is the Lindley, or at best Stanton-led, Cardinals. In some ways, they are like the Lions but worse in everything. They too don't really turn the ball over, but that's because while Carson Palmer was safe with the ball, Ryan Lindley is almost too inaccurate to be intercepted. They are 20th or worse in all those categories the Lions were between 15-20, apart from a slight ability to pass protect. With Ellington hurt even the run game is completely ineffective. With Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and a relatively re-born Michael Floyd, they have some interesting weapons, but unless Stanton comes back they are basically completely hopeless. Let's just move on, I'm so depressed. Rank: 6th.

Defense: The general trend through the season was the Cardinals defense was playing really well despite their injuries and the pressure put on a team to never allow an opponent to score 20 points. That is mostly true even today, but the injuries that appeared early in the season are rueing themselves today with the depth pressed more than previously. The Cardinals still do a few things really well. They are the best team in the NFL at forcing runs of zero or negative yards, allowing them to get ahead of the downs a ton. Their rush defense overall has fallen off (100+ yards in 5 of last 6, 200+ in last two) but that is more teams getting huge chunks when breaking the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals also cover well. They are incredible against slot and 3rd WRs, showing their depth, and are great against RBs. They limit the opponents production to only #1 and #2 receivers. The issue with the Cardinals is that they aren't great at getting pressure without blitzing. Their big-safety look (3 or 4 safeties) allows them to blitz and cover well, but when you basically have to blitz to get pass rush, that is not a great place to be in. They are still good enough in the run game to rate where they do, but the current iteration of the Cardinals defense is nowhere near the teams #3-1, especially the #1 and #2 teams. That wasn't the case through October. Rank: 4th.

Quarterback: The NFC is a bit boring, where I'm probably going to rank the QBs the same way as the offenses, but that is the case more often than not in the modern NFL. This is an easy pick, however. Ryan Lindley or Drew Stanton is the worst QB in the playoffs this year. Stanton actually had a modest year in the advanced metrics, with a positive DVOA and DYAR, but Lindley was below in both. He's just not a good QB. I'm happy for him that Lindley threw a TD pass finally, but he is the biggest liability any one team in the playoffs. Rank: 6th

Coaching: Bruce Arians is a God, going 21-11 in is first two seasons in Arizona, the best two-year run the franchise has ever had since the Sid Gillman days. Still, the bloom came off the rose a bit with his inability to adjust the offense to something even competent with Lindley at QB. Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles is starting to get a little too aggressive in his defensive calling, which can hurt as well. The coaching staff is still good, but cracks have appeared against conditions no one should face. Rank: 4th.

Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Packers: The Cardinals really can't beat anyone. They might be the most obvious team to lose a Wild Card game since the Vikings with Joe Webb from two years ago (or the Matt Cassel Chiefs in 2010). If they are going to put up a miracle upset, it would be over the Packers, against a defense that would more likely allow a few long bombs to the receivers. The blitz package won't likely work against either, but I think their defense would fare better against a less explosive running game.


4.) Carolina Panthers  (7-8-1  =  339-374)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 339 ptf (19th), 374 pta (21st), -35 ptd (23rd), 5,547 ydf (16th), 5,437 yda (10th)
= Outsiders: -8.9% team (25th), -5.0% off (20th), -1.6% def (15th), -5.5% st (30th)

Offense: For the Panthers, we really have to separate their post-bye performance (4-1, with the loss in a game where they basically played the Vikings even but lost due to two blocked punts for TDs) from the pre-bye. Pre-bye was among the worst offenses in the NFL. Cam Newton had no time, was hobbling around when he did have time, and his receivers alternated amazing catches and ten drops. The Panthers offense was terrible. Post-bye, the offense is still not good, but it resembles the unit that finished 2013 as a Top-10 offense. The Panthers all year were reasonably good at sustaning drives and avoiding 3-and-outs, and holding onto the ball. That helps supplement their defense. Cam Newton has grown more comfortable oddly after his car crash, as he's back to running 5-10 times a game, even on designed runs. An active Cam Newton is a dangerous one. With Jonathan Stewart looking healthy they have a full run game now. Kelvin Benjamin drops way too many passes, but he remains a good downfield target for Cam. The Panthers offense is also back to its cool scheming ways that work to score ~20 points a game. That's good enough in the NFC for at least one round. Rank: 4th.

Defense: Over 16 games, the Panthers defense looks average, ranking 15th in DVOA. They are, however, 7th in weighted DVOA, an adjustment that weighs recent games more. Of course, over the most recent set of games, they're even better. The Panthers haven't allowed 20 points on defense since their embarrassing loss on Monday Night to Philadelphia. They haven't allowed 400 yards since their tie. Some of those were due to starters resting late, but the Panthers defense has been trending upwards for a while now. Their rushing defense has become strong once again, and their pass rush improved from one of the worst in the league to a Top-10 unit in the 2nd half as everyone gets used to their Greg Hardy-less roles. Due to employing Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, they are great against TEs and RBs, but struggle at times outside. That has gotten better when the coaching staff replaced aging, useless vets with Tre Boston and Bene Benwikere. Those guys aren't great, but they're doing what the Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn types did last year. The Panthers were surprisingly below average in the red zone, but that is another area where they've improved. The 2013 Panthers were basically 90% as good as last year's Seahawks team. This year's Panthers are probably 80% as good as last year's Panthers team, but trends say they're close to their best right now.. Rank: 3rd

Quarterback: Cam Newton is far better than those numbers. He had nothing to work with most of the year. The Panthers o-line was awful, his main targets kept switching and his receivers dropped basically all the passes. Newton stayed engaged and stayed as good. One of the keys of their turnaround was stability in the o-line, which stabilized Cam Newton. The Cam Newton of the past four weeks was the same guy that led a 12-4 team last year. Rank: 4th.

Coaching: It's weird to lob some praise for a team that went 7-8-1, but let's look at the team that went 4-1 and the coaching staff that took them there. Ron Rivera basically controls that defense, and his personnel changes keyed the defensive resurgence, like removing Thomas Decoud in favor of Tre Boston and inserting Bene Benwikere. The offense itself schemes well and gets their limited players into space and allows them to make plays. I like this staff more than most, and I like Ron Rivera's go-for-it mentality. Rank: 2nd.

Top-2 Seed That They Could Beat = Seahawks: The Seahawks and Panthers have played two extremely close games in the last two seasons. The Seahawks won 12-7 and 13-9, both times scoring late TD drives to win the game. The Panthers defense can do well against that running game, and stop the TEs and RBs that Wilson uses a lot, and have the defensive speed to track Russell Wilson. On offense, I'm not sure how they would score, but I like their chances against a team they've barely lost to than the team they trailed 35-3 against (Green Bay).


3.) Dallas Cowboys  (12-4  =  467-352)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 467 ptf (5th), 352 pta (15th), +115 ptd (5th), 6,122 ydf (7th), 5,681 yda (19th)
= Outsiders: +13.8% team (6th), +17.0% off (4th), +4.1% def (22nd), +0.9% st (12th)

Offense: I don't know if they're better on offense than they were in 2007, but they are definitely more efficient. They turn the ball over less, move the ball more, and are basically an ultra-efficient 1990's offense playing in the 2010s. It is horrifying that Demarco Murray was given nearly 400 carries, especially when primary backup Lance Dunbarr averaged nearly 7 yards per carry. The offense stayed healthy and their top players played well. Tony Romo was #2 in DVOA this season, and #5 in DYAR despite missing two games. Jason Witten had his best season in years. Dez Bryant stayed healthy and focused and scored 16 TDs on just 85 catches. Finally, that o-line is sturdy, is the best run-blocking line in the NFL and keeps Romo upright. They've built a throw-back offense that works so well. They are great in most of the per-drive stats, ranking Top-5 in Yards/drive, points/drive (2nd), and red zone efficiency (3rd). They do everything well, and even though they are doing it in a way that is feels more a home in 1994 than 2014, doesn't mean the Cowboys are bad. In fact, if they go deep, or continue this efficiency in 2015, it may be an interesting case study and example that running and building a great o-line is the new market inefficiency in the NFL. Rank: 2nd.

Defense: The Cowboys defense was a laughing stock coming into 2014. They followed up a franchise-worst defense in 2012 (Hello, Rob Ryan!) with an ever more absurd 2013 group. Well, despite losing Sean Lee and letting Demarcus Ware walk, they improved to below average, which is nice. They rank 22nd in total defensive DVOA, 22nd against the pass and 23rd against the run. They are top half against #3+ WRs, RBs and TEs, but their main corners struggle a lot against top weapons. Their pass rush sorely misses Demarcus Ware, ranking poorly in hits and sacks. There are a couple areas where the Cowboys (relatively) excel in, and they both align with what a good Tampa-2 defense should do. They are the top team in the NFL in forcing turnovers per drive. They also force more field goals than all but two teams. Giving up scores of yards is mititaged when you force a ton of fumbles and force teams to kick field goals. That won't save them overall, as turnovers dry up in the playoffs, but that is a pretty noticeable area to rank really well in. Better that than the alternative of being average to worse in everything. Rank: 6th

Quarterback: I'm not a proponent of 'QB Playoff Winzz' so I do believe that Tony Romo is better than Russell Wilson. You can make some argument he was better than Rodgers this year. I won't personally, but the argument is there. Romo was amazingly accurate this season, with a completion percentage close to 70%, and above 72% over the past 8 games. Romo was the most efficient QB in the NFL this season, and the one knock is he didn't have to throw as much as others. He still did more in fewer throws than most. Rank: 2nd.

Coaching: I had a hard time placing the Cowboys coaching staff. Jason Garrett owns that offense that suceeded all year long as arguably the most ruthlessly efficient and consistent offense in the league at both running and passing. There is some blame to go around for the decision to give Demarco 400 carries, but that is a bigger problem for 2015. The defense improved and played above its talent level with Rod Marinelli involved, which is nice. Overall, their time management and game management issues hurt them in my eyes, but that is a good staff overall. Rank: 5th.

Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Seahawks: Because, well, we've seen it. The Cowboys haven't beaten the Packers since that Favre TNF game in 2007. They even lost to a Matt Flynn led team last year after leading by a bunch. As for Seattle, they went into Seattle and smacked them. The game was close because the Seahawks scored 17 points on drives that went less than 30 yards. The Cowboys physically mauled them up front and outgained Seattle 2-1. That won't happen again, but the same matchup edges exist.


2.) Green Bay Packers  (12-4  =  484-348)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 486 ptf (1st), 348 pta (13th), +138 ptd (3rd), 6,178 ydf (6th), 5,542 (15th)
= Outsiders: +23.3% team (3rd), +24.6% off (1st), -1.0% def (16th), -2.3% st (22nd)

Offense: It starts and ends with Aaron Rodgers, the best QB in the NFL. Rodgers finished 1st in DVOA, and slightly behind Roethlisberger, who threw the ball ~50 more times. Rodgers' 38-5 TD/INT is just sickeningly good. You have to adjust for era a lot, but statistically he's the modern day Steve Young, someone who has mastered the things that make you good by QB rating. He may be somewhat limited in the playoffs if that calf injury reaggravates, but the Packers looked decent using Rodgers exclusively as a pocket passer on Sunday. Cobb and Nelson were both Top-7 in both DYAR/DVOA for WRs, being the best and most perfectly meshed, WR duo in the NFL. Rodgers is even more comfortable using Richard Rodgers as a TE this year. They score more points than anyone per drive, score more TDs than anyone, and go three-and-out less than all but two teams. They are the best offense in the NFL, and with Eddie Lacy healthy and good for the past 10 games they can beat you running the ball as well (they ended up #6 in rushing DVOA; that is bumped up by Rodgers himself). The Packers had some notable struggles on the road against good defenses (Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo), but it isn't like many teams dominated those defenses on the road. What sets this Packers offense apart from their other recent teams aside from 2011 (when they were unhuman) is their o-line gives Rodgers plenty of time this season; scary, scary stuff. Rank: 1st.

Defense: The Packers defense is probably better than you think but also worse than you think at the same time. They have mitigated some of the problems that faced their defenses from 2011-2013, but they do also excel in the areas those teams excel in. They rarely give up big gains on the ground. They are Top-5 in creating takeaways, something the Packers have seemingly done well throughout the Rodgers era. The Packers defense is better against the pass, but their corners are tasked with playing a lot of man coverage which doesn't always work. The Packers are perfectly slightly above average across the board in pass defense, ranking between 9-16 against #1/#2/#3+/TEs/RBs in DVOA. It's not great to not have any area where you excel, but its also good to have no true weakness to attack. The Packers won't win because of this defense, but they have enough athletes, and a scheme that can create enough mismatches, to make the 3-4 stops necessary to win games. Rank: 5th

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers is great. He's the best QB in the NFL right now. He's the best quantitatively (highest passer rating, best DVOA, best DYAR if you include rushing, etc., etc.), or qualitatively (he can do things no one else can dream of). Rodgers may be effected by that calf injury, but with a full two weeks off (Packers play the Sunday early window in the Divisional Round), I'm more worried about a re-aggravation than the current one hampering him. Rodgers is incredibly quick with his delivery, can fire them on the run (when perfectly healthy) to his right or to his left, and with a better o-line, his sack issue is even lessened. Rank: 1st.

Coaching: We tend to focus too much on what a coach does on Game Day. We criticize the 4th down calls, the punts, the use of timeouts. However, what happens the other 165 hours that are not game day is far more important. That is where McCarthy excels, building game plans that utilize each member of the Packers offensive skill players. Dom Capers defense played well this year and showed more flexibility than in years past. Rank: 3rd.


1.) Seattle Seahawks  (12-4  =  394-254)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 394 ptf (10th), 254 pta (1st), +140 23ptd (2nd), 6,012 (9th), 4,274 yda ((1st)
= Outsiders: +31.3% team (1st), +16.7% off (5th), -16.3% def (1st), -1.7% st (19th) 

Offense:  The Seahawks offense generally looks better by advanced metrics since they never turn it over and throw deep more often than most teams. That said, I still think the numbers from Outsiders overrates the Seahawks offense. They are the best rushing attack in the NFL, mainly because Russell Wilson had probably the best rushing season by a QB since Michael Vick's Atlanta days, or at least Cam Newton in his rookie season. The Seahawks are a middling red zone offense, and very average in passing the ball. Quietly, Russell Wilson got worse as a passer in 2014. Some of that could be injuries to o-line and weapons, but he was less accurate. Wilson ended up 16th in DYAR and DVOA. Not great. The passing attack has no one great weapon, but Paul Richardson played well as the season went along. Still, this is all about the running game. Marshawn Lynch had another fantastic season, placing 3rd in rushing DVOA and DYAR. Even backups Christian Michel and Michael Turbin played. I don't know if it is really an improvement in run blocking, or Lynch and Russell Wilson turning disaster into 20 yard gains, but the Seahawks can grind clock as good as any team. They just better hope they don't fall behind by more than 7 late, because I don't know if the 2014 Seahawks passing offense can bring them back. Rank: 3rd.

Rank: The 2013 Seahawks definitely cratered in teh middle of the season, when Bobby Wagner got hurt, and Red Bryant went on IR. Bryant is obviously not coming back, but Wagner did and the Seahawks went on a 2000 Ravens type run of stopping teams. Against average opponents (Cardsx2, 49ersx2, Eagles, Rams), the Seahawks gave up just 33 points, not giving up a TD on four occasions, and giving up no more than 245 yards. Speaking of yards, they gave up ~550 fewer yards than any other team, and ever since following their loss to Dallas, gave up over 300 yards just once (their win over the Giants). All in all, they gave up fewer yards than the 2013 Seahawks did. Still, before people think this team is that team, there are some areas of concern. Their pass rush improved from awful to league average, but it is still league average. They finished #3 in passing defense DVOA, and had a weakness against TEs that last year's team did not. Overall they were the 2nd worse #1 defensive DVOA in Football Outsiders history. They are awful in the red zone, ranking 3rd worst in giving up points per red zone trip. They are just league average at forcing takeaways. There are some negatives there. Of course, they're still the best defense in the NFL, suffocating opponents all year since Dallas overpowered them.. Rank: 1st

Quarterback: I thought about putting Cam Newton ahead of Russell, but then I came to my senses and left that haterade behind. Still, Wilson definitely regressed at a QBs main job, which is passing effectively. He finished 14th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA, which is probably around right. There were fewer weapons for him this year, but not too far worse than last year or the year before. Wilson got worse as a passer. Luckily for him and Seattle, he's the best running QB in the NFL since Michael Vick's prime. Rank: 3rd.

Coaching: Pete Carroll's defense took the challenge of increased scrutiny on contact and holding and responded by playing basically the same anyway. Carroll gets that team motivated like few others and his scheme has turned the Seahawks into a monster once again on defense. Bevell's offense has adjusted to more run heavy than in year's past, which showed good ability to respond to personnel and strength changes. This Seahawks coaching staff is on a roll right now. Rank: 1st.

2014 NFL Playoffs: AFC Playoff Primer

It's that great time of year... NFL PLAYOFF TIME. And to get us started, here's my yearly Playoff Primer, the one 40,000 word document guaranteed to be fully wrong within 14 days. As a preview each team capsule has the following information:

Stat Breakdown giving their points and yards for and against, and then their Football Outsiders DVOA numbers overall, and for offense, defense and Special Teams.

The capsule also includes write-ups on their offense and defense, QB and coaching staffs, with a concluding ranking of 1-6, compared to their AFC (and NFC, for the next post) playoff comrades.

Finally, for teams seeded 6-3, I'll give a brief look a which of the Top-2 seeds I think they can beat over the other.

As a note, I utilize Football Outsiders' stats a lot, including their overall DVOA figures, DVOA and DYAR figures for players, O-Line and D-Line stats, and their drive stats. All of these are readily available at FootballOutsiders.com, a site that should be a must-visit for any real NFL fan in the 21st Century. I have not used any stats that are for their paid Premium members (of which I am), but they reveal almost too much great information.

Here We Go...


6.) Baltimore Ravens  (10-6  =  409-302)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 409 ptf (8th), 302 pta (6th), +107 ptd (6th), 5,838 ydf (12th), 5,391 yda (8th)
= Outsiders: +22.2% team (5th), +9.7% off (9th), -4.6% def (8th), +8.0% st (2nd)

Offense: It may not feel this way given how the last three weeks have played out, with sluggish games against Jacksonville and Cleveland and an abhorric one in Houston, but the Ravens have a good offense. It isn't great, but it is balanced, is Top-10 in many areas, and is probably the most complete offense the Ravens have had in the Flacco era. Flacco himself had his best season, placing 8th in DYAR and 7th in DVOA. They have a very good run game at times with Justin Forsett being among the more efficient RBs in the NFL. The pass protection has been great, as Flacco was only dropped 19 times. The o-line itself is fully healthy. The Ravens are good on a per-drive basis as wel, placing in the Top-10 in the following: Yards/drive (6th), Pts/drive (8th), and Turnovers (10th). They protect the ball, move the ball, and rarely punt. There are two factors here to consider, first, and most importantly, their schedule. The Ravens played a ridiculously easy set of defenses, mostly getting both the AFC and NFC South (so did all the AFC North teams). The second is their recent play, which hasn't been great even against those AFC South teams. Both are issues, but this is clearly a legitimately good offense. Problem for Baltimore is the AFC is full of those. Rank: 5th

Defense: Everyone knows what the Ravens hole is on defense. Their secondary is not very good, not by skill, but by experience and youth. The unit was decimated by injury to comic levels. They stil have Lardarius Webb, though he's had an up and down season. What the Ravens have, though, that helps cover that obvious hole, is their front-7. It is probably the best in the AFC. They have the patented pass-rushing duo in Dumervil and Suggs (Terrell remains a monster against the run as well). Haloti Ngata back from suspension makes their tackle grouping even more stout. They have two good inside linebackers in the superb rookie CJ Mosley, and the always underrated Darryl Smith. This Ravens defense can flat out ball. They are best in limited space, unsurprisingly given their secondary has less room to cover, ranking 2nd in Red Zone DVOA. Their D-Line stats are excellent, placing Top-5 in both run stopping and pass rushing. The Ravens defense is extremely competent, and while they may struggle between the 20s due to obvious issues in pass coverage, they are more than mitigated by their ability to play stout up front and turn 7 into 3 more often than not. Rank: 3rd

Quarterback: Joe Flacco just had his best season of his career, placing in the Top-10 of most conventional stats, and the two advanced stats that I care about (DVOA and DYAR). He had an absolutely awful game against the Texans in Week 16, but followed it up nicely. Flacco obviously has had a very interesting playoff career, early on winning games despite awful performances (4-10 for 36 yards being my favorite), but recently has had 5-good playoff games in a row The AFC is just stock with good QBs right now. Rank: 5th

Coaching: I think the Ravens coaching staff is among the best in the NFL. They did have a habit of playing down to competition some times, but the Ravens always seem well prepared. John Harbaugh is an effective leader with great buy-in, and his Special Teams are always great. Gary Kubiak has turned that offense into a better version of any previous Ravens offense since maybe 2008 when they were a savant-like running team. On defense, Dean Peas continues to utilize his talent well and they've done a great job of masking weaknesses in their secondary. They are just a solid top-to-bottom coaching staff. Rank: 2nd

Top-2 Seed That They Can Upset = The Patriots: The Ravens historically play the Patriots well. Even last year's 41-7 loss they held Brady to barely 50% passing. That game was done in by turnovers, something the Ravens have done well at avoiding this year. The Ravens do a few things that will work well against New England, such as play excellent red zone defense (force 3 not 7 - what keyed their win in 2012), and rush the passer everywhere from the front. On offense, it might be more challenging, but the Ravens can get steady gains on the ground. Also, for once the Patriots wouldn't have the clear Special Teams advantage. Plus, they don't really match up well with Peyton Manning. Against Manning, their 1-2 in the playoffs, winning a game they absolutely should have lost. Against Brady, they're 2-1, losing a game they probably should have won.


5.) Cincinnati Bengals  (10-5-1  =  365-344)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 365 ptf (15th), 344 (12th), +21 ptd (14th), 5,568 ydf (15th), 5,749 yda (22nd)
= Outsiders: +4.6% team (13th), -1.8% off (18th), -2.2% def (14th), +4.2% st (6th)

Offense: It is hard to know what to make of the Bengals offense. They've looked quite competent at times. They've also looked horrid at times. They've seemingly found an effective formula with the run game and Jeremy Hill, and the Bengals do have a solid o-line that keeps pressure off of Dalton most of the time, but even that o-line has been very up-and-down. Looking at the conventional numbers, their run game has really been effective in recent weeks. I hate stats like these, but in every game they won, they had at least 100 rushing yards, and their loss in Week 17 was the first time they lost with over 100. The Bengals o-line is the strength of that offense, with the #5 pass protection as per Football Outsiders. Andy Dalton had another extremely average year, but did rebound with a few nice games to end the season. He was projecting below his career numbers early, but was able to utilize Muhammad Sanu more as the season wore on. He'll have to if AJ Green has any lingering effects of his concussion that may force him to miss the Colts game. The Bengals offense does not have close to the ceiling it had last year, but with a solid, healthy o-line and a stable running game, it's floor is far higher than it was early in the season. Rank: 6th

Defense: The Bengals entered the season without their defensive coordinator and without a few key defensive pieces, such as Michael Johnson. They suffered injuries through the year, and are still trotting out aging veterans in the secondary. Somehow, though, Marvin Lewis got it to mostly work. There are some notable areas where the Bengals struggle, mostly on the d-line (once a strength). They were in the bottom-5 in terms of sacks, with Geno Atkins notably not recovered from his ACL tear last season. They have a bottom-5 rush defense overall by DVOA. They are, in reality, the anti-Ravens, where their soft front-7 is coupled with a strong, deep secondary. The Ravens have had one of the top secondaries in terms of depth and talent for ears now. This year, Dre Kirkpatrick has improved to somewhat justify his 1st-round draft status, and Pacman Jones continues to have a very nice second career. The Bengals force more interceptions than all but two teams, and are a Top-10 unit in the red zone where they play primarily zone. The Bengals know what they are and what they have. It generally is only marginally good, but can be very effective if their pass rush even gets a little push. Rank: 4th

Quarterback: Good Old Andy Dalton, not exactly as bad as people think but definitely worse than the over five AFC QBs. I don't care too much about his overall record in the playoffs (0-3), or his awful stats in primetime games, but what I do care about is him throwing high way too often, and being generally inaccurate. Combine this with him probably not having AJ Green and you get serious issues. The Bengals are in a tough spot as I don't even see the potential upside of him going on a Flacco in 2012-type run. Dalton most certainly got worse, with just a 19-17 TD/INT, which is truly bad in the NFL of 2014. Rank: 6th.

Coaching: I'll give credit to Marvin Lewis for keeping that team good after losing both coordinators. Hue Jackson actually ended up being the perfect coordinator, as his natural inclination to run the ball is a perfect marriage for a team with a good o-line and a spotty QB. I have no idea who their new defensive coordinator is, but I think they place too much trust in their talent and less in actually team-specific game planning. Rank: 6th

Top-2 Seed That They Can Upset = Denver:  I don't really think Cincinnati can beat either, but we saw them beat Denver just a few weeks ago. Denver's awful special teams are hidden more in Mile High, and the Special Teams edge basically won the Bengals the first game. It also likely wouldn't be a monsoon. Still, they beat Denver. They also lost horrifically to New England back in Week 5, a loss that likely spurred the Pats play ever since. I can't see them beating either, but they have a slightly better shot in Denver.


4.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5  =  458-369)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 458 ptf (6th), 369 pta (19th), +89 ptd (7th), 6,506 ydf (3rd), 5,483 yda (11th)
= Outsiders: +4.7% team (12th), -0.9% off (17th), -2.3% def (13th), +3.3% st (8th)

Offense: I'll say right now I'm ranking them 4th, but it was close between them and Baltimore. In fact, it is pretty hard to make the argument that the Colts are a better offense without using stats I don't implicitly trust, or being a homer. The Colts did score far more points, but they also had far more drives (7th in pts/drive). There are two issues for the Colts offense. First is their running game. The Colts have been smart enough to essentially bench Trent Richardson from getting any important carry, and Dan Herron is a capable, fungible back, but the Colts can't turn to the running game for anything. The passing game can be great, and at times in 2014 it was, but injuries to Wayne and, more alarmingly, TY Hilton have slowed that, along with issues on their o-line. Hilton should be getting healthier, as should the o-line. I'm still left a little upset at myself, though, for defending a team as a good offense when the stats don't really show that. They were a very good offense early in the season, and then a middling one later. Personally, I just think they are more of the former offense, the one that was running more plays than anyone and leading the NFL in yards/drive through 8 games. Rank: 4th.

Defense: The Colts defense alternates from absolutely awesome against mediocre to bad offenses. This is shown by their dominance against their division rivals, Giants, Redskins, Bengals, Ravens and Browns. In those 11 games, they went 11-0, which is great, but also gave up just 173 points and 286 y/game. That is great, Seahawks level defense. Now some of these are bad offensive teams, but against those teams the Colts were even more stingy. The bad news is against the good offenses they faced, as in those five games they gave up 196 points and 476 y/game. The Colts defense is basically completed scheme based, with few notable talents but good coaching. Their defense had no real pass rush force after losing Robert Mathis, but Pagano was able to scheme up 41 sacks out of thin air. I'm not sure how. Improvements by Bjoern Werner helped, but additions of Arthur Jones and rookie Jonathan Newsome were even more effective. The Colts trust their top corners to use man coverage, and Davis and Toler are generally good at that too. Overall, using DVOA (which will adjust for the splits between bad offenses and good), they rank a respectable 13th, and 10th against hte pass. Their pass rush ranks 7th, The Colts are a strange team that is Top-5 in ending drives quickly and forcing 3-and-outs or punts, but they have the worst red zone defense in the NFL. Add it all up, and they are respectable, but given that most of the AFC teams have good to great offenses, their struggles may show up more.. Rank: 5th

Quarterback: Quick warning, I'm ranking him 3rd. Yes, it is a homer pick. Yes, Luck is probably not easily defensible as better than either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but I'm doing it. Here is my rational, and where graying the line between a QB's ability and the offenses production. Luck is tasked with doing more than any QB in the NFL. He has to throw it 600 times, with an average at best offensive line at pass protection that shuffled itself all the time. He has no real running game since Ahmad Bradshaw went down, and his weapons are somewhat good (Hilton), and somewhat maddeningly above average (Fleener, Allen). Luck himself is ready to take over the league, let's not forget he had a 40 TD season at 24. Rank: 3rd.

Coaching: It's easy to criticize the Colts coaching staff, and Lord knows Colts fans do that all the time, but it isn't all totally off base. However, they've showed far more ingenuity this season than in the past two. Pagano's defense has adjusted to personnel changes and he coached them up to basically dominate any average or worse offense. They just don't have the personnel to beat better ones. On the offensive side, Pep Hamilton embraced the throw-for-it mentality and continues to work in the different weapons well. They aren't the best in clock management, but my issues with the Colts long term are more in GM than coaching. Rank: 4th

Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = New England: Again, I don;t think the Colts can beat either, but I think they have a slightly better shot in New England. Pagano's defense replicates what the Ravens try to do, and that does work against Brady. Even in this year's game Brady was pretty bad, throwing two awful interceptions. The Patriots won because they went 6-lineman all the time and rolled up 200 yards, which is rather unlikely to happen again. Also, the Colts blitz-happy nature is less likely to work against Peyton than it is against Brady.


3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (11-5  =  436-368)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 436 ptf (7th), 368 pta (18th), +68 ptd (10th), 6,577 ydf (2nd), 5,654 yda (18th)
= Outsiders: +12.1% team (8th), +22.5% off (2nd), +11.3% def (30th), +0.9% st (12th)

Offense: The one criticism of Ben Roethlisberger's career is that he can't put up big numbers. Well, we can only dream of not putting up numbers like this. Roethlisberger had a career year in his 11th season, placing 1st in DYAR and 3rd in DVOA. He had his most efficient season the same year as his most voluminous one, throwing for 4,952 yards. The offense is so much more than Big Ben, though. The o-line is the best the Steelers have had since 2005. They are good in all parts of run-blocking, and rank a good-for-Pittsburgh 14th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate. They led the NFL in yards per drive with just under 40. Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers, were an all-offense team in 2014, one that got more yards per drive than any team in the NFL. They employ the best dual-threat RB in the NFL, and the best WR. Antonio Brown's season is beyond words. 129 catches, 1,698 yards, and an incredible number of big plays. Brown just consistently gets open, and his presence makes it easier for Markus Wheaton, and deep threat extraordinaire Martavis Bryant. Of course, Heath Miller is still around, a Top-10 TE in DYAR/DVOA in his 11th season. Their relative weakness is that they are just average in the red zone, but that is mitigated by how often they can get there given the yards/drive. One last stat before I go away, they led the NFL in time of possession per drive. They were basically a more dangerous, explosive version of last year's San Diego team. Rank: 1st.

Defense: The Steelers are good in very, very few things on defense this year. They have been playing slightly better recently, but that is mainly due to reduced competition. The Steelers get an average amount of sacks, and a sub-average amount of turnovers (though that might be an improvement from past seasons), and place between 17-32 in basically all advanced stats, from run stopping to all their drive stats (yards, points, turnovers, punts, red zone). When you aren't truly good in anything, that makes it pretty easy to rank worst in the AFC Playoff picture. It isn't all too close actually. Some of their newest players in the LeBeau Linebacker College have been playing better recently (Spence, Worilds, Shazier), but considering they're relying on James Harrison to play many snaps. The Steelers have to show some flexibility if they hope to go deep, given that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have both had successes against far superior versions of the Steelers defenses. Rank: 6th

Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger ranked #1 in DYAR, with just slightly under 100/game. That wouldn't have been #1 in most years past, but it does make Roethlisberger the first QB not named Manning, Brady or Brees to lead the NFL in that stat since 2002, and this is probably the first time since those playoffs that neither Manning or Brady is the best QB in the AFC. Despite losing Emannuel Sanders and having Antonio Brown as his only dependent receiver, Roethlisberger had an insane season. 4,952 yards, 32 TDs to just 9 INTs. He had back-to-back 6-TD games, he had 300-yard games out the wazoo, he helped the Steelers have the top offense in the AFC. Basically, he had the season that all the haters thought he was never capable of having. Oh, and for those that care, he's 10-4 in the playoffs.. Rank: 1st.

Coaching: While the Steelers defense played slightly better later in the season, it still is not that good despite some highly-drafted fellows, and some of that is I think the game is passing Dick LeBeau by. He's never been too flexible with the scheme, but for the most part he hasn't had to be. He needs to show some flexibility if they get by Baltimore, as the only way they beat Denver/New England is if the coaching adjusts. On offense, I've hated the Todd Haley marriage with Roethlisberger, but it sure worked this year. Tomlin gets the team to buy in, but they've had way too many odd games this year to really trust. Rank: 5th

Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Denver: We've seen the Steelers vs. Patriots movie before. There have been a few plot twists (2004, 2011), but those came when the Steelers either controlled the ball for 40 minutes, or shut down teh Patriots run completely. Given that this one would happen in New England, neither seem likely. Denver is a more interesting matchup, given that Peyton hasn't had the level of success Brady has had against LeBeau's defense (though he's been plenty good), and the Steelers are more suited to a team that will give up some 3rd and 11's.


2.) Denver Broncos  (12-4  =  482-354)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 482 ptf (2nd), 354 pta (16th), +128 ptd (4th), 6,446 ydf (4th), 4,883 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: +29.5% team (2nd), +19.9% off (3rd), -13.3% def (4th), -3.7% st (27th)

Offense: People like to draw a line in the Broncos season, because it is an easy line to draw. Through 10 games, the Broncos were probably the 2nd best offense in the NFL behind Green Bay. Manning had 30 TDs and 9 INTs, and the team was 7-3. They lost the 10th game, throwing 55 times and running 10. Ever since then, the Broncos decided to run the ball. The team continued to score points, actually scoring more at 31.5 ppg. They went 5-1 in those last six games. The trouble is Manning's numbers went down, with just 9 TDs and 6 INTs. Because of age and the neck injuries and because it is fun to belittle Manning, any times his number fall off from amazing people say he is done. Manning isn't done. I've watched every throw and I think the bigger issues are the thigh injury, the game-plan adjustment to throw more intermediate/deep passes and less screens, and the fact that the Broncos haven't had a Week off since September. The offense is still the best in the red zone, and is still a Top offense everywhere. CJ Anderson has been a Top-5 running back since that 11th game. Emannuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are a Top-3 WR duo, and Wes Welker is playing better. They still give up fewer sacks than anyone, and are now more multifaceted. If this was anyone else who underwent this transformation, they would be lauded. Since Manning is involved, they aren't. That's not fair to Peyton, or the Broncos as a whole, who are 2nd in points, 4th in yards, 3rd in DVOA, and have the 4th best QB and two of the Top-10 WRs and a Top-10 RB. Rank: 2nd.

Defense: It was a tough choice who would get my #1 ranking for AFC defenses. In the end, I went with my numbers over my head and heart and general fear of Belichick. The Broncos are, by the numbers, the best defense in the AFC playoff field. The rank #4 in DVOA, Top-5 against the Pass (5th) and run (3rd). While they struggle against other receivers, the are Top-5 against #1 and #2 receivers, a clear indicator of how good Aqib Talib and, more importantly, Chris Harris Jr. have been. They actually struggle to get sacks given the amount of pass plays the defense faces, but the are Top-5 in pressures. They rank 2nd in Outsiders' run stopping statistics, give up the fewest yards per drive, and and the most 3-and-outs. A few areas where they struggle are in teh red zone, and they have a terrible penchant for giving up 3rd and long conversions more than good defenses should. It is hard to pin their difference in yards allowed and points allowed. One thing I'll say is that it makes sense given their propensity to either force a three-and-out or give up a TD. Great teams usually don't do that. Their terrible game in Foxboro was their only true black mark, but their inability to stop 4th Quarter drives in multi-score games also made end games more precarious than they should. Still, the numbers are quite clear. Rank: 1st

Quarterback: Yes, Manning had some odd games in the 2nd half of the season, but let's break them down, shall we. Following his loss to St. Louis, he was brilliant against Miami, with 4 TDs on 80% passing. He then played the Chiefs, threw two early TDs and then spent the rest of the game throwing deep. Against the Bills, the same defense that completely shut down Brady and Rodgers over the past three games, he completes 70% of his passes, but throws two bad picks. Against the Chargers, he got hurt but still played OK, and then threw two bad passes against the Bengals in a driving rainstorm. All of these performances came with the Broncos running effectively. Tom Brady basically had the same stretch at the end of last season, and no one gave a shit. What I am saying is that if 4,500 yards and 39 TDs is a 'down' season, then every other QB should be embarrassed. Rank: 2nd.

Coaching: I'm down on the coaching staffs in general in the AFC for the most part (which is distinctly different than the NFC), so I really don't think the Broncos are great. I'll give Adam Gase all the credit in the world for being flexible, and Peyton thinks the world of him. Jack Del Rio's defense continues to play well, but needs to show more nuance if they play New England again. Finally, they have to get less conservative. One fear with their run-all-the-time mantra is that it has instilled some temerity, such as multiple field goals on 4th and Goal from the 1 or 2. That has to change. Rank: 3rd


1.) New England Patriots  (12-4  =  468-313)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 468 ptf (4th), 313 pta (8th), +155 ptd (1st), 5,848 ydf (11th), 5,506 yda (13th)
= Outsiders: +22.4% team (4th), +13.6% off (6th), -3.4% def (11th), +5.5% st (5th)

Offense: The Patriots are  good balanced offense, placing 5th in passing DVOA and 14th in rushing. The rushing number was closer to last place midway through the season, but for seemingly the 15th year in a row they found themselves in their run game as the season went on with the combination of Jonas Gray and LaGarrette Blount. The Patriots are still a pass first team, and Brady's weaponry stayed healthy this year. Gronk was healthy all season and got healthier as the season went on and was once against the best TE in the NFL, leading in DYAR/DVOA and conventional metrics. Brady also continued to use Edelman as a very effective clone of Wes Welker. Danny Amendola actually contributed, and overall it was a happy year. There are a few troubling spots, however. First, in their last five games they've scored 21, 23, 41, 17, 9. The 9 you can throw out, but the 21, 23 and 17 aren't great. Of course, those were all on the road, something the Patriots won't have to deal with. Brady himself didn't look great in the last six games, but they can compensate for that. New England's o-line shuffled mightily early in the season, but did settle down and while they are still vulnerable to giving up too much pressure, a constant theme in those low-scoring affairs, they are a Top-10 O-Line in all phases. The Patriots are a well-oiled machine, but they aren't nearly as good as past Patriots offenses that featured Gronk for full, or mostly-full seasons (2010-2012). Rank: 3rd.

Defense: Maybe I am a true hater, but the Patriots defense ranks worse than they should basically everywhere. They rank 11th overall in DVOA, 12th against the pass and 14th against the run. They rank no higher than 7th against any particular set of pass catchers. The Patriots are among the worst defenses in the NFL in stopping runs for zero or negative yards, though they do give up few big gains on the ground. They have an average pass rush, though it improved with Chandler Jones back. They are 23rd in yards per drive, but only 8th in points per drive. Somehow, this is not explained as it usually is by great red zone defense, as they're only 11th. The secret to their success is a string of failed 4th-downs against them in the red zone. Some of these were late in blowouts, but some weren't. That is probably not sustainable, but you generally have to be ahead to have teams go against you so much on 4th down. By personnel, this defense should actually be better. Darrelle Revis has had a very good season, as have linebackers Jamie Collins and Rob Ninkovich. Devin McCourty is still one of the better safeties, and they are coached excellently. Still, they aren't really that much better than the Patriots defensive units from 2010-2012. Rank: 2nd

Quarterback: While Manning was aging before our eyes, Brady was playing, well, average. He only had a QB rating above 100 once in the past 7 games. Other than that mighty 2nd half against Miami, the offense under him has been somewhat middling. Through 8 games, Brady had 18 TDs and 2 INTs, in his next 8, he had 15 TDs and 7 INTs, including some awful picks against the Colts and Chargers. Not that he was bad, but let's not think Brady wasn't 'aging' either. His recent playoff track record ain't the best either, people.. Rank: 4th.

Coaching: It's Bill Belichick. That is really all that needs to be said to justify ranking him 1st in this. With McDaniels in tow, they continue to run the most machine-like offense in the NFL, though better defenses can slow it down. Matt Patricia has gotten better as a defensive cordinator, with their defense being far more aggressive this season. With Jim Harbaugh and Co. gone in San Francisco, there's no team obvious to challenge the Patriots here, though Baltimore's group was close. Rank: 1st