NFL 2014: Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

Well, I knew writing that Pats piece on Saturday was going to lead to a Pats blowout....

Power Rankings

32.) Oakland Raiders  (0-4  =  51-103)

They're still not any good after changing coaches and taking a week off. They now get to welcome the hottest QB in the NFL. At least the last time they played a 'top' QB, they shackled him when they played Tommy Boy. There's still not anything to get too excited about other than maybe them responding well to Tony Sparano.

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-5  =  67-169)

That was by far their most competitive game of the year and they didn't score 10 points. Somehow, they were on pace to give up more points than the Broncos scored last year until that game. Now, they're only on pace to give up ~500 points this season. Still terrible, but slightly less so, I guess. One thing they do well, though, is rush the passer. Not sure how, but Gus Bradley's defense can at least get to the QB.

30.) Tennessee Titans  (1-4  =  88-139)

Awful loss. Personal story here; I entered Sunday with the Titans staring me at the face at '+1', road dogs at home. I thought that was a joke line. I got better odds betting them straight up, which I did. Of course, they blow a 28-3 lead (something I feared was coming the second Locker left when they were up 21-3) and lose by, you guessed it, one point. That's why gambling sucks.

29.) New York Jets  (1-4  =  79-127)

They actually had performed reasonably well through four weeks, losing only out-of-conference games to three teams much higher up this list. Then, they took a trip to Kansas City and got rocked by the best QB in football right now. Of course, they also put up a fat zero points against a pretty mediocre defense. The Jets are a mess, and they'll probably lose Rex - which is a shame.

28.) Washington Redskins  (1-4  =  112-136)

They fought, I guess, on Monday Night. Kirk Cousins is obviously not the answer. He was better against Seattle than he was against the Giants 10 days earlier at home, but that was a pretty low bar to cross over. The defense is still too reliant on blitzing. That works when you are facing the Jaguars and Chad Henne who can't move. Russell Wilson is a different story.

27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (1-4  =  103-156)

The best thing that may have happened this year to the Buccaneers is that 56-14 loss. That shook them up. Everyone on the team has played better since then. Of course, it helps to get guys like Foster and McCoy back on defense, and start Glennon over McCown. The last two weeks they've gone on the road and beaten the Steelers and nearly the Saints. This team will fights as all Lovie Smith teams will.

26.) Miami Dolphins  (2-2  =  96-97)

I don't really know what to think of Miami. They looked so good in their wins. They looked so pitiful in their losses. Ryan Tannehill was almost benched one week and then looked like a hero the next. The defense has so much talent but the scheme doesn't suit the players all that well. The Dolphins should be a lot better, and maybe they end up playing a lot better; but who really knows at this point?

25.) St. Louis Rams  (1-3  =  84-119)

Austin Davis is so much like Sam Bradford from last year. He'll put up crazy stats when his team is already down 24 points. The Rams will end up losing close, Davis will have good visual numbers, but people will forget how sub-par he was when the Rams were getting killed early. He may have some qualities Bradford did not, but I think he's nowhere near as good as his stats will indicate. Also, is it about time to put out an APB for Robert Quinn?

24.) Cleveland Browns  (2-2  =  103-105)

Somehow, they have the 3rd best Offensive DVOA in football. That won't last because it basically can't. There is no way their offense is actually this good. Interesting to note that Brian Hoyer is vastly outperforming Tom Brady in 2014 and just like Tom, Hoyer has no one real to throw to. He's missing his best weapon and his top tight end has been in and out of the lineup. Does anyone say anything about Hoyer's situation?

23.) Minnesota Vikings  (2-3  =  101-126)

The Vikings were in an awful position in Green Bay, having to start Ponder on a short week, and I really hope Teddy B is back soon. He has such potential, such incredible potential. It was such a shame to see him get hurt so quickly. The Vikings are going to be a tough out each week, but only one half of the team can do anything if Christian Ponder is involved.

22.) New Orleans Saints  (2-3  =  132-141)

Something is very wrong with this team. Sure, the defense is deplorable, but let's get past that for a minute. Something is up with that offense. They just are not dynamic. Their normal plays aren't working because unless they game to get the ball to Crooks, no one is getting open other than Jimmy Graham, who seemingly gets hurt every other week. Brees is starting to flail the ball around as well, and now he's doing it at home. I'm fearful for them.

21.) Houston Texans  (3-2  =  104-87)

Good defense, but that offense is horrendous. I'm surprised they haven't turned to Mallett yet to see what he has. There's no way that Fitzpatrick is leading them to the playoffs, especially in an AFC that has a lot more contenders than them. The Texans need to get more production from any receiver not named Hopkins. Where has their TE game gone. I thought that is all Bill O'Brien can do?

20.) Dallas Cowboys  (4-1  =  135-103)

I really don't believe in them despite the 4-1 record. I think that record is inflated by playing some pretty bad teams. Beating the Titans isn't a huge deal. They really shouldn't have beaten St. Louis. The Saints are way worse than anyone thought. And the Texans are inflated themselves at 3-2. The collapse might be even more painful (or hilarious, depending on your view of America's team) this time around when they start 4-1.

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (3-2  =  114-108)

The Steelers might end up sneaking into the race for the #6 seed just based on that piss easy schedule they have, but they are not a good team. A good team doesn't let the Jags anywhere close to them. A good team just blows a team like Jacksonville out. It is sad because right now the Roethlisberger-to-Brown connection is as fun as anything in the NFL.

18.) Atlanta Falcons  (2-3  =  151-143)

They were thoroughly outclassed in that game, and they seem to have serious problems outdoors, but the Falcons still have a dynamic offense. I realize that Antone Smith's efficiency will drop the more chances he gets, but can they get that guy the ball more? The defense played OK, I guess, but they need to score at least 24 to really have a solid chance of winning any game.

17.) Chicago Bears  (2-3  =  116-131)

Tough loss for a team that could have had a really nice 2-3 start. Cuter will never stop throwing 3-4 lazy passes a game that put the Bears in serious trouble. Those receivers are still not healthy either. Most concerning is their defense continues to be unable to play coverage. They went from having a terrible run defense but being passable against the pass in 2013, to being the exact opposite this season. Of course, this all after being brilliant at both in 2012.

16.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-3  =  119-101)

They played a good game, but in the end were a little outmatched off of a short week going on the road in an easy come-down game after last Monday Night. Their defense will continue to be stout, but they need more use out of their WRs than they've gotten so far. I don't put that all on Smith. Donnie Avery has done nothing, and Bowe needs to play better.

15.) Buffalo Bills  (3-2  =  98-89)

That was a win that a strong team pulls out. They had no real right winning that game. Of course, if Alex Henery just hits a field goal or two, they lose, but the Bills of old would not have capitalized on that opportunity. Kyle Orton is not a great QB, but he can do enough with the skill guys around him. Jim Schwartz has that defense on fire. We'll know quite a bit more about this team come Monday after this Patriots game.

14.) Carolina Panthers  (3-2  =  104-120)

Huge win. They were staring 2-3 in the face down 21-7 to the Bears. Look at their schedule coming up. They go to Cincinnati and Green Bay, before hosting Seattle and New Orleans, and finishing going to Philadelphia. It gets far easier after that (no team over .500 over the last 6 games), but they have to be alive out of that five game stretch. If they can go 2-3, they might sneak out this division again.

13.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-1  =  156-132)

Their 4-1 record is not as fraudulent as the Cowboys', but it is not that exciting either. They've taken full advantage of a silly run of special teams and defensive TDs (including two blocked punts for TDs, which is just silly) that in no way is sustainable. Their offense still hasn't been clicking, and the defense is very up and down. What is scary for the rest of the NFC is that maybe the offense does start clicking. What then? They can run and hide in the NFC East in the next few weeks with a few wins.

12) New England Patriots  (3-2  =  123-107)

Only up four spots after that win? Well, when they will likely never play that well again... yes. They weren't as bad as 14-41, and they weren't as good as 43-17. They're somewhere in the middle. Right now, I do think there are 11 teams that would beat them on a neutral field. Luckily for New England, none seem to ever play in the AFC East.

11.) New York Giants  (3-2  =  133-111)

Just when I think I'm out... they keep pushing me back in. This won't work long term. I know that. Picks are a coming. Stupid losses are a coming. Everything that has made thinking the Giants will be good in 2012-13 will come home to roost this year as well. I just know it.

10.) San Francisco 49ers  (3-2  =  110-106)

Good win for a team that continues to just be well coached and play up to their strengths. It is weird, that after all the losses of personnel due to free agency, injury and suspension, and the supposed ‘Rise of Kaep’ that this team still wins with defense and running the ball. They play more like the 2011 49ers than they have since Kaepernick took over. Not that this is a bad thing.

9.) Green Bay Packers  (3-2  =  134-106)

The Packers offense can look so good against teams that have no interior pass rush. The Packers offense can also look so bad against those teams. The Lions game did happen, with them holding the Packers to 7 points without something fluky happening. Still, what they’ve done in the last two weeks is get everyone excited again about what this offense can be. The defense is still untrustworthy, but it was exciting to see Julius Peppers make an awesome play again.

8.) Detroit Lions  (3-2  =  99-79)

I still think they are the best team in the division, but they have to navigate this stretch without Calvin. Getting kickers who can hit more than a third of their kicks will help them do that, as if they had one of those they would be 4-1 right now. They have a few tough division games coming up. One thing I know is that this defense is for real. They play with the intensity they used to in the Schwartz era, but also the discipline that resembles their mannequin Head Coach. Good combination there.

7.) Baltimore Ravens  (3-2  =  116-80)

I’m not shocked they lost, because Indianapolis is a good team. I am shocked that they were not able to stop the Colts pass rush, or figure out a way to counter the Colts’ blitzes. The Ravens were seemingly unprepared, something that you can rarely say about a team this good. They still have a very solid roster from top to bottom, and it low looks like Cincinnati has come back towards the pack, somewhat.

6.) Arizona Cardinals  (3-1  =  86-86)

Hard to knock them too much for losing that game. That last TD was bullshit, but they were competitive in that game. Losing Calais Campbell really hurts, but it seems like they will get Carson Palmer back, which will help a lot. That offense looked good in Week 1, and looked positively lucky to score at all in the weeks following.

5.) Indianapolis Colts  (3-2  =  156-108)

Good, old-fashioned Colts win. They won a game without playing their best, with turning it over in the red zone twice, with terrible officiating calls going against them, and with Andrew Luck playing a ‘C’ level game. They won despite all that, and won rather comfortably. This is a good team that was very unlucky to lose to Philadelphia, and lost to a great team by not too much on the road. Coupled with their schedule, they can go on a run coming up.

4.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-1  =  97-76)

I moved New England up four spots, so I’m dropping Cincinnati three. There obviously was some troubling signs about that game. I could care less about that ‘not ready for primetime’ bullshit. What I do care more about is their lack of pass rush. The Patriots offensive line played well, but the athletes there on the line from 2012-13 aren’t as good now, and Geno Atkins is taking a while to come back from his injury. Still a very good team, though.

3.) San Diego Chargers  (4-1  =  113-63)

You realize that through five weeks this is the NFL’s best scoring defense? Now, they’ve played some light-weights offensively (EJ Manuel’s Bills, the Jets, the Jaguars) and that will end soon (not this week… Hello Oakland!) and they might become a mediocre defense, which is likely what they are, but the Chargers offense is clicking so well in the passing game right now. Philip Rivers is the easy MVP through five weeks of the season.

2.) Seattle Seahawks  (3-1  =  110-83)

You know you are a great team when you can play a sloppy game, commit fifteen penalties, do all this on the road, and still win by 10 points. Sure, Washington is not a good team, but the Seahawks know themselves so well. They know that they have a bad o-line, so they compensate. I think they secretly know that their pass coverage isn’t what it was last year (especially Maxwell and Chancellor), so they’re playing bigger up front. Just a very good team in the midst of a great run.

1.) Denver Broncos  (3-1  =  116-87)

By DVOA, they have the #1 offense and #2 defense. That is a good combination. I don’t think the defense is that good, but given who they’ve played and how those teams have performed in other games, I start to understand it. Von Miller looks better each week. So does Demaryius. The real star, so far, has been Emannuel Sanders, who looks like he was born to play with Peyton.

Postseason Projections

AFC

1.) Denver Broncos  (13-3)

2.) Indianapolis Colts  (12-4)

3.) Cincinnati Bengals  (11-5)

4.) New England Patriots  (10-6)
5.) San Diego Chargers  (12-4)

6.) Baltimore Ravens  (10-6)

NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  (12-4)

2.) Detroit Lions  (11-5)

3.) New York Giants  (11-5)

4.) Carolina Panthers  (10-6)

5.) Arizona Cardinals  (11-5)

6.) Green Bay Packers  (10-6)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Kansas City (2-3); New Orleans (2-3)

After getting all of the good teams on a bye two weeks ago, this is four straight bye teams that are pretty marginal (Oakland & Miami last week). I’m sure the Saints don’t want a bye right now of that stirring victory. It does allow them to rest up before a hellish six-game stretch coming up.

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it “The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of the AFC South Sucking” Sunday, as the Jaguars and Titans play in a game no one in Nashville wants to watch. Honestly, who would want to watch this game? For years, one of the oft-levied criticism’s of Manning was that the AFC South was a bad division; for years that was garbage. Now, it isn’t. Both teams are not good.

14.) San Diego Chargers (4-1)  @  Oakland Raiders (1-4)  (4:05 - CBS)

13.) Denver Broncos (3-1)  @  New York Jets (1-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Baltimore Ravens (3-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Washington Redskins (1-4)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it “One good, one slightly less good” Sunday, as we get four games where one team that is square in the playoff picture (if not Conference Supremacy picture in the case of San Diego and Denver) go to play a team that most certainly is not. I guess the Cardinals, if they’re missing Palmer and have to actually start Logan Thomas, are terrible themselves, but at least that will make the game competitive.

10.) Detroit Lions (3-2)  @  Minnesota Vikings (2-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) San Francisco 49ers (3-2)  @  St. Louis Rams (1-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it “Division Monsters vs. Minnows – but in the Minnow Pond” Sunday and Monday, as we get three division rivalries to kick around, but none are that appealing. Certainly, Detroit can do Lion-ish things and lose, and the Browns can put a stake in the Steelers and likely send them to last place through six weeks, and I guess the Rams can do what they nearly did to Seattle last year on Monday Night (and not what they did do to San Francisco on Thursday Night – lose by 25). I just am not too interested into seeing if that can happen.

7.) Dallas Cowboys (4-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (3-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it “What can a great run game get you in 2014” Sunday, as the Cowboys enter against Seattle with the best run game in the NFL. Sadly for Dallas, the Seahawks have the best run defense. The Cowboys probably have a better chance to win if they let Romo air it out, but they probably won’t as they seem very committed to giving Murray 35 carries a game. The Seahawks are the better team and they get another opportunity to knock a statistically very good QB down a few pegs.

6.) Indianapolis Colts (3-2)  @  Houston Texans (3-2)  (TNF - CBS)

5.) Green Bay Packers (3-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (2-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it “Restoring Order” Sunday, as the once in peril Colts and Packers take the road against the once top dog Texans and Dolphins. Remember when the Texans were 2-0 and the Colts were 0-2? Remember when the Packers looked lousy against Detroit, or when the Dolphins dominated the Patriots and were poised to start a New World Order in the AFC East? Yeah,, those days are gone. That said, great pass rushes can make these two QBs look bad; and they might have to.

4.) Chicago Bears (2-3)  @  Atlanta Falcons (2-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

3.) Carolina Panthers (3-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it “The loser is in bad shape in one, and the winner is great in the other” as being 3-3 (or 3-2) after 6 weeks is not a bad position. The winner of Chicago/Atlanta isn’t automatically a playoff contender, but the loser is in a really tough position. For Carolina, Cincinnati, the loser isn’t really out of it (though with Carolina’s upcoming schedule, maybe so; then again, given Carolina’s division, maybe they’re never out of it), but the winner is in really good position. Both should be fun games full of offense in the first and defense in the second.

2.) New England Patriots (3-2)  @  Buffalo Bills (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

1.) New York Giants (3-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it “An Early Season Battle for 1^st Place” Sunday, as that is exactly what these games are. The Patriots and Bills winner leaves with 1^st place all to themselves six weeks into the season (if it is Buffalo, they leave 2-0 in the division to the Pats 0-2). The loser leaves at 3-3 and is squarely in the mediocrity of the AFC. The Giants can, in four weeks, move from 0-2 to a share of 1^st place (assuming Dallas loses). Obviously, the Giants would not be in outright first place, but they’ll have beaten two NFC East teams on the road. That should be a great game, but given the uncompetitiveness of most prime-time games this year, it probably won’t be.

What's Wrong in Paradise?

The Patriots didn't just lose on Monday Night, they were undressed. They performed worse than any New England Patriots team since 2003, when they lost 0-31 on opening Sunday. They performed terribly on both sides of the game. When the starters were in, they were outscored 41-7, and it wasn't a fluke. There were no missed opportunities for New England, or lucky breaks for Kansas City. Hell, New England recovered one of the two fumbles deep in their own territory. New England looked slow, they looked uninterested, and they looked unprepared. They looked like the worst representation of what the 'Patriots Way' used to be. The Patriots are facing a crisis worse than any they've faced since that 0-31 loss, when Tom Jackson claimed that the Patriots players' 'hate their coach'. That time it ended with a Super Bowl win. This time, a Super Bowl looks further away than ever.

The Patriots probably had their nadir on Monday Night, but when you couple a schedule that is quite tough, and a team that doesn't look good on offense or defense, this does seem like a crossroads. There's two big questions. First, is this the end and what is wrong, and then, how did it all get here?

In truth, the Patriots have been declining for a while. The Patriots were not 12-4 good a year ago. Change two or three things and they go 10-6 (like their ridiculous wins over Cleveland and New Orleans). The Patriots scored about 100 fewer points than they did in 2012, and their defense struggled at times. Brady had his worst season since 2006. He was sacked more than he's been since even before that. People blamed the receivers, blamed injuries, blamed the o-line, blamed everything but the most obvious answer: age.

Brady is getting older. He's getting worse. That doesn't mean he's no longer good, or that he wasn't once incredible. All that means is that Brady is a human being that is susceptible to aging. Brady looks even worse this year. Routinely missing throws that Brady from 2010-2012 would have hit in his sleep. There always seemed to be something mystical about the 2010-2012 Patriots, who scored 500+ points in three straight seasons with a short passing game and nothing much outside. Well, that mysticism is over, and it has at least somewhat to do with Brady. His arm isn't worse, but it is more erratic. He's flinging throws that are more inaccurate than ever. This is not a good passing game currently, and that is problem #1.

The NFL is reaching comical levels of QB efficiency right now. The entire league as a whole has a passer rating of 89.6, completing 64.2% of their passes, with a Y/A of 7.2. Brady has a passer rating of 79.1, completing 59.1% of his passes, with a Y/A of 5.8. Sure, he doesn't have a ton of weapons (though that didn't stop him in 2010), but he's basically a bottom-5 QB this year statistically. Certainly, his weapons aren't worse than Geno Smith's, or Jake Locker's, or Austin Davis'. Brady is performing in line with those guys.

So, what has changed? Outside of age, it is the o-line; and this is where Belichick comes in. The Patriots o-line right now is playing terribly. This is the first time that Tom Brady has ever had a less than average o-line, and it shows how dependent the Patriots passing game has been on good o-line play. Right now they're playing a collection of rotating average players in the interior, and two tackles that are playing so below their pedigree it doesn't make sense. The one guy that is missing is Dante Scarnecchia, the Patriots long-time, brilliant o-line coach that retired after last season. With him gone, the line has become a disaster, and Belichick is not helping things.

Belichick has made strange trades of veterans before, and they've all worked pretty well. He's traded Richard Seymour, Randy Moss; cut Lawyer Milloy, and let Asante Samuel walk. All those things worked in the sense that the Patriots continued being good (though they definitely missed Seymour and Samuel), but trading Mankins seemed different. Mankins was still good, and the o-line was already slipping. They traded their one big veteran on that line with no real replacement. Belichick had no real plan, and now he's stuck rotating guys in and out all the time.

I don't know if Belichick just expected someone to take over, or to do what he has done so many times before, but it didn't work this time. It isn't working anywhere, really. He brought in Darrelle Revis, who was supposed to lock down a side of the field like he did in New York (forget that by 2012 he had already regressed below his absolute prime), and Revis has been merely above average to good. The d-line is still quite bad, as Wilfork hasn't really come back from his achilles tear last year 100%. The linebackers look lost, as Jamie Collins looks more like what he was in 2013 apart from his one good game in the Divisional Round against the Colts. The defense was exposed when they didn't have to play Matt Cassel and the Vikings right after the Peterson news broke or the Oakland Raiders. And Belichick is messing with it too, benching Chandler Jones and Alfonzo Dennard, and then Logan Ryan. One can say he's trying to find the right formula, I take it more of a crisis of confidence.

I've never seen a team use benching as a motivational tool quite like the 2014 Patriots. Belichick is never happy, seemingly, with the players on teh field, pulling them and reinserting constantly. It isn't helping make his team any better, that is for sure, but maybe he finds the right formula. It just doesn't seem like that is going to happen. The Patriots might find themselves. After their game against Cincinnati, they get the comfy confines of the AFC East again for two games in six days, but following that they have the following murderer's row of a schedule:

vs. Chicago
vs. Denver
BYE
@ Indianapolis
vs. Detroit
@ Green Bay
@ San Diego

That stretch will define the 2014 Patriots. The team that has taken the field so far through four weeks will go 2-4 at best in that stretch, if not 1-5. The team that has taken the field so far won't go on the road and beat the Colts, Packers or Chargers, and for sure won't beat Denver at home. The team that has taken the field and put up fewer yards per play than any offense in the NFL would be lucky to score 20 against the Lions at home.

Maybe we are all overreacting to one terrible game. Maybe Belichick will pull yet another rabbit out of his at, and a 12-4 record to boot out of his ass. Maybe it happens... but maybe it doesn't. Maybe this is the beginning of the end. Nothing lasts forever in the NFL, and the end comes quickly. Peyton Manning went from a Super Bowl loss, to dragging a team of nothing to a division title in 2010, to moving on from Indianapolis by March, 2012. Brady's path could be somewhat similar. The scariest part of the Patriots start, other than the fact that I could be jinxing them to a 10-game win streak by just writing this, is that they aren't even injured yet.

NFL 2014: Week 5 Picks

Minnesota Vikings (2-2)  @  Green Bay Packers (2-2)  (GB -7.5)

Vikings 17  Packers 30  (GB -7.5)


Chicago Bears (2-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (2-2)  (CAR -2)

Bears 20  Panthers 23  (CAR -2)


Cleveland Browns (1-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-3)  (TEN -1.5)

Browns 21  Titans 17  (CLE +1.5)


St. Louis Rams (1-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  (PHI -6.5)

Rams 20  Eagles 24  (STL +6.5)


Atlanta Falcons (2-2)  @  New York Giants (2-2)  (NYG -4)

Falcons 17  Giants 23  (NYG -4)


Houston Texas (3-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (3-1)  (DAL -6.5)

Texans 17  Cowboys 27  (DAL -6.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)  (PIT -6)

Steelers 34  Jaguars 17  (PIT -6)


Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  Detroit Lions (3-1)  (DET -7)

Bills 13  Lions 23  (DET -7)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)  @  New Orleans Saints (1-3)  (NO -10)

Buccaneers 20  Saints 27  (TB +10)


Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  @  Indianapolis Colts (2-2)  (IND -3)

Ravens 23  Colts 27  (IND -3)


New York Jets (1-3)  @  San Diego Chargers (3-1)  (SD -6.5)

Jets 20  Chargers 24  (NYJ +6.5)


Arizona Cardinals (3-0)  @  Denver Broncos (2-1)  (DEN -7.5)

Cardinals 13  Broncos 30  (DEN -7.5)


Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-2)  (SF -5)

Chiefs 23  49ers 20  (KC +5)


Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)  @  New England Patriots (2-2)  (PK)

Bengals 27  Patriots 17  (CIN -PK)


Seattle Seahawks (2-1)  @  Washington Redskins (1-3)  (SEA -7)

Seahawks 27  Redskins 21  (WAS +7)

NFL 2014: Week 5 Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) Oakland Raiders  (0-4  =  51-103)

In reality, if they play the Jaguars tomorrow anywhere, I would probably take Oakland, but they get last place for firing the coach. Look, the Raiders don’t strike me as a particularly well coached team, but Dennis Allen does not have a lot to work with. To me, doesn’t Reggie McKenzie deserve as much, if not more, blame? He didn’t inherit a lot, but whatever he did he got rid of and replaced with mediocre older talent. The Raiders of 2010-11 were miles better than what they’ve been in the McKenzie era.

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-4  =  58-152)

That scoring differential looks comical. They’re on pace to give up more points than the Broncos scored last year (608 vs. 606). There’s little chance they’ll give up close to 608 points, but the Jags just have so little on that side of the ball. Blake Bortles looked OK, I guess, and the schedule does get, relatively, easier, but it is hard to see this team even matching the 4 wins they had last year.

30.) Tennessee Titans  (1-3  =  60-110)

One of the biggest questions I have through 4 weeks of the NFL season is ‘how did the Titans destroy the Chiefs in Arrowhead in Week 1?”. They’ve been awful ever since, including two home games. Ken Whisenhunt seems lost with that team. I’m sure he’ll be given a year two, but I think right about now he’s wondering why he took the Titans job and not go to Detroit and chill with a team with so much more front-line talent.

29.) Washington Redskins  (1-3  =  95-109)

This might be low, but since Griffin is not coming back anytime soon, I think it is a fair spot. Kirk Cousins just is not that good. He beat up on the Eagles and Jaguars. In games not against bad defenses, he’s been brutal. He turns the ball over more per play than Mark Sanchez did. He has no real feel for throwing. I really hope people realize that Robert Griffin is so much better than Cousins it doesn’t need to be spoken.

28.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (1-3  =  72-119)

Quality win for the Bucs. I still am not sure how they won relying on a guy who last did anything with Oakland in 2009 (Louis Murphy), and I’m pissed that they cost me $500 on a Steelers-Colts-Chargers parlay, but when a team that looked so depressed the following week gets a win like that it is OK (I guess). The Bucs defense showed that when healthy they’ll dominate against the run. Pass defense is still a major issue, though.

27.) New York Jets  (1-3  =  79-96)

The next six or so teams are all about interchangeable for me right now. The Jets are down here just because their QB can’t stop making dumb mistakes. He’s definitely has more natural and mental talent than Sanchez, but he’ll make 2-3 horrific plays a game. The defense has nobody in the secondary, and it seems that Rex Ryan can do a better job scheming pass pressure with marginal talent (see: 2010-2012), then scheme pass coverage with the same. Still, they won’t be an easy out ever.

26.) Buffalo Bills  (2-2  =  79-75)

They should be higher. They could be higher. Hell, beat New England in Buffalo in two weeks and at worst they will be in a tie for 1^st place 6-weeks through the season (quick math, I guess Miami could be 3-2 – so scratch that). The defense is rock solid. My issue is, unsurprisingly for all the teams down this low, QB. I don’t really know if Kyle Orton is the answer. Kyle’s been a smart QB, but never the most accurate, which was Manuel’s largest problem overall.

25.) St. Louis Rams  (1-2  =  56-85)

Oh, the Rams. The sad Rams that can never get a break. The year when the 49ers look in disarray, and the Seahawks look kind of mortal, the Rams are without their top-2 QBs, and their 2^nd best player on defense. They’re still hell on defense to play, but without Long it is far less scary. Jeff Fisher will keep them playing tough, and Austin Davis has shown good accuracy, but being a Jeff Fisher team without a good QB, they’ll be good for 2-3 blowouts over the course of the season.

24.) Cleveland Browns  (1-2  =  74-77)

The Browns are a tough out, but much like the Browns from last year, or the Bucs from last year, I’m always wary of a team that plays and loses tough early season games later in the season when, after playing well enough to potentially have been 7-3, they are 3-7. I don’t know if this will happen to the Browns, and their offense has exceeded my wildest expectations, but on the other hand the defense has been as mediocre as I thought it would be.

23.) Houston Texans  (3-1  =  87-67)

JJ Watt is an alien.

22.) Minnesota Vikings  (2-2  =  91-84)

That was a surprising game. Teddy Bridgewater had a nice performance, but the real star to me was that McKinnick character who ran for 8 ypc. That was a really nice performance against a team that had been quite good against the run through three weeks. The defense wasn’t great, but the Vikings will be this type of team all season. Sadly, for me, that means that they are a complete stayaway.

21.) New Orleans Saints  (1-3  =  95-110)

The defense is awful, but guess what: Most Rob Ryan defense have been below average. I’m not wholly surprised. What is still surprising is the offense. The same issues have plagued them on the road for a good five years now; namely, an inability to get YAC, and Brees forced to throw earlier than he wants to. What are 11-yard gains in the Dome become 6-yard gains on the road. To be shutout against that defense through 30 minutes is inexplicable.

20.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-2  =  97-99)

I hate them with the passion of a thousand burning suns given that they’re idiotic play in the 4^th quarter cost me a cool 500 bucks. Eff all of you. Also, it is sad that Ben Roethlisberger is playing for such a middling team. Lot of similarities between Ben in 2012-2014 to Philip Rivers from 2010-12.

19.) Chicago Bears  (2-2  =  92-100)

Does an aged Jared Allen really mean that much? Their pass rush against a bad pass blocking line was pathetic. You can’t let Rodgers just sit there. Plus, how did their secondary get so bad in two years? How did the defense get so bad in two years? Also, how effing unsurprising were their turnovers in the 2^nd half. That just happens to the Bears against the Packers.

18.) Miami Dolphins  (2-2  =  96-97)

Should games in London even count as wins? Games in London are always terrible, aside from one fantastic exception where the Chargers beat the Saints 39-38 in 2008. Maybe they should just replay that game on a loop each time they do a London game. As for the team, who the hell knows. For their sake, they get to figure it out in a garbage division.

17.) Dallas Cowboys  (3-1  =  115-86)

I don’t know how they’re 3-1 either. They have a reasonably hard schedule going forward, but if the defense can continue being average, they have a shot to win the division. That seemed unthinkable this year when Romo was lobbing up all the picks in Week 1, but here we are. Man, the NFL is always interesting.

16.) New England Patriots  (2-2  =  80-90)

Is this the lowest I’ve ever had the Patriots? Well, since I started this blog after their 1-1 start in 2009, and didn’t do power rankings after their 1-1 start in 2010, and had them at #8 after their 1-2 start in 2012. It just feels different this time. Nothing seems good about this team. Even in 2010 and 2012 they had a game where it all worked. This year just seems like a disaster through four weeks. I’ll write more about the Patriots in depth later.

15.) Carolina Panthers  (2-2  =  73-96)

The Panthers have looked so bad on defense the last two weeks. Everyone is open. All running backs are getting a consistent 5-6 yards on every rush. Now, maybe the Ravens are just better than anyone expected, but the Panthers defense that was so good in Wk 1-2 has been so, so bad. I can't imagine that continuing, but it is hard to imagine them really being good enough to win games 20-17 consistently.

14.) Atlanta Falcons  (2-2  =  131-113)

Well, I guess this is the team that is going to play games 35-31 each week, with both offenses putting up 400+ yards. With two o-lineman going down for the year, it is hard to imagine that Matt Ryan's great start will continue all year, but they still have Julio Jones, which is what they missed more than anything last year.

13.) Phildelphia Eagles  (3-1  =  122-104)

I don't think that loss exposed them. I mean, if they didn't have three non-offensive TDs and had three offensive possessions instead, they probably put up more than 112 yards in the first 58 minutes. That said, the run game is suddenly terrible, and against teams that can play screens, they really have no good answers. The Eagles defense continues to be surprisingly competent, and they'll get better once their lineman get healthy, but they are a really unconvincing 3-1 right now.

12.) New York Giants  (2-2  =  103-91)

Yeah, I'm buying in again. Screw me now before I bet on them to cover against Altanta...

11.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-2  =  88-89)

Big win for them. They were staring a dark place down 21-10 in the 2nd quarter against Philadelphia. What can you say about a team that doesn't give up a point on defense against a good offense? That despite missing Bowman and Aldon. They still have a physical presence. If only Kaepernick had gotten better at literally anything in the past two seasons.

10.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-2  =  102-79) 

People were so down on them after Week 1 (for good reason), but their resume now reads being two yards away from taking Denver to OT in Denver, beating Miami comfortably in Miami, and then raising all kinds of hell against New England. Just for undressing the Pats like that, I'll love them forever. The Chiefs do still have enough talent on defense to keep them in games, and Andy Reid is scheming the shit out of this offense. Fun team to watch, really.

9.) Green Bay Packers  (2-2  =  92-96)

I didn't want to get too down after the loss to the Lions, and I don't want to go too high in that win. Rodgers wasn't touched, but that rarely happens. Packers fans will r-e-l-a-x, and probably will continue after this week, but they still don't seem quite right. The defense is still terrible, but it was nice to see them get their patented turnovers like they used to back in the good old days.

8.) Indianapolis Colts  (2-2  =  136-95)

The highest scoring team in the NFL just rolled off back-to-back wins scoring 40+ and giving up less than 20. Sure, they played two of the worst teams in the NFL, but still this is a step up for the Colts. They had winnable games and smashed the opponent. Also, Andrew Luck is a God amongst men right now. There are three QBs who have been awesome so far, Rivers, Luck and that boy Manning out in Denver.

7.) Detroit Lions  (3-1  =  85-62)

Solid win for them. They didn't play perfect, didn't do much with Calvin, yet went on the road and beat a team without breaking too much of a sweat. Jim Caldwell was brought into Detroit to bring stability, to bring professionalism. He's done that and more. Sure, the 'same old Lions' showed up in the loss to Carolina, but the other three games for them have been all class so far. That defense is now the better part of the team, and if they want to go anywhere, that should continue.

6.) Baltimore Ravens  (3-1  =  103-60)

Joe Flacco looks really good in that offense. Now, Steve Smith will probably not match those stats again this year, but Flacco looks confident, decisive and in rhythm, something that has not been true since January 2013. The defense may have lost their leaders, but Suggs and Ngata are still there. They have more communication errors than they used to, but they'll never be embarrassed. Just a solid, solid team.

5.) Arizona Cardinals  (3-0  =  66-45)

They probably should have lost to San Diego, and they weren't all that great against New York, and they won mysteriously against San Francisco, and Palmer is still not healthy, but I'm not betting against Bruce Arians. I'm not betting against Todd Bowles' defense either, which is something I can't believe I'm writing given that I watched the 2012 Eagles 'defense'. 

4.) Denver Broncos  (2-1  =  75-67)

Well, given how well the Colts and Chiefs have played the last two weeks (winning their games by an average score of 40-16), the close wins that the Broncos have against them don't look as bad anymore. That defense has probably been better than most people think, as has the offense. They're fine really. I probably should have them higher, but then this early it is hard to rank Denver, Seattle and San Diego any other way given the two games between them three.

3.) Seattle Seahawks  (2-1  =  83-66)

The Seahawks probably used their bye to figure out how to defend switch verticals, but what I would have used it is to figure out how to use Percy Harvin in non-Jet Sweep plays. They still don't really get the best out of him. Anyway, not many real flaws with that team. It will be interesting to see how they play on the road in a primetime game. They haven't done that too many times recently, and the last time they did (a TNF game last year in St. Louis) they should have lost.

2.) San Diego Chargers  (3-1  =  102-63)

Obviously, beating Jacksonville is no huge task, but I'll give them credit for pulling away after a relatively slow start. That place is rocking these days, and Philip Rivers continues to be awesome. I really have nothing much to say about this team. I still feel eventually the Broncos will overtake them in the division, but watching the Chargers ball out with Phil Rivers playing this well after everyone wrote him off two years ago is a lot of fun.

1.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-0  =  80-33)

They get the unfortunate task of playing a team that is still probably good who just got embarrassed. Playing bad teams after they got embarrassed is tough enough (see: Pittsburgh last week). However, they also get the enviable task to show America just how good they are. There is nothing that they do badly at this point. They already had one of the best rosters when you look past QB, but Dalton has been good enough this year. This is a real test, but a great chance to show how good they really are.

Looking Ahead to Next Week:

Byes: Miami (2-2);  Oakland (0-4)

Well, it is a lot better than last week when it was all the good teams on the bye. Also, why did the NFL switch from having just 4 teams on the bye each week for 8 weeks to this weird system where discriminant amount of teams are on the bye?

15.) Cleveland Browns (1-2)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)  @  New Orleans Saints (1-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "I just don't care about these games" Sunday, as... I just don't care about these three games. I guess seeing if New Orleans is truly dead or not matters, but who really cares when they are going to go 2-6 on the road and 7-1 at home anyway?


12.) Minnesota Vikings (2-2)  @  Green Bay Packers (2-2)  (TNF - CBS)

11.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1)  @  Washington Redskins (1-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "One of these night games is going to be a blowout, the other is going to be a disaster" Thursday and Monday, as to me one of these two seemingly one-sided games will be close. I really can't tell which. Gun to my head says the Vikings could play Green Bay close, as the talent difference between those two is mainly the QB, but we've seen Rodgers this year struggle against teams that could rush well, which the Vikings can.


10.) Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  Detroit Lions (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Houston Texans (3-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (3-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Is the NFC really better than the AFC?" Sunday, as we have two middle of the road AFC teams take the road to play two suprising NFC teams at 3-1. You would think the fact that the Lions and Cowboys being 3-1 would speak even more to the depth of the NFC, but that comes at the expense of the Saints being 1-3, the 49ers and Bears being 2-2, etc. I don't think either will win, but like my two night games right before, I wouldn't be surprised if one is really close.


8.) St. Louis Rams (1-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

7.) New York Jets (1-3)  @  San Diego Chargers (3-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

6.) Atlanta Falcons (2-2)  @  New York Giants (2-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "games I care about more than I should" as they all have interesting matchups. Mainly, can three solid defense play well against three very good offenses. After two weeks of defenses having the edge league-wide, offenses have been incredble the past two weeks. The Rams and Jets are by no means good defenses, but they have good fronts. The Giants are, to me, a good defense, and can easily give the good offense of the Falcons problems.


5.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-2)  (4:25 - CBS)

4.) Chicago Bears (2-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (2-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "2-3 is a lot different than 3-2" Sunday, as these are two of my favorite games where one will leave happy at 3-2, the other sad at 2-3. The 49ers can't really afford another loss this early. The Chiefs can't either in a suprirsingly tight AFC. The Bears and Panthers probably can, but one would love to be 3-2. The Panthers need to show up, as does the Bears defense. Who would have thought that that could be a really high scoring game.


3.) Arizona Cardinals (3-0)  @  Denver Broncos (2-1)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Remember that time I thought Manning was going to go to Arizona" Sunday, as this game will make me remember when I thought Manning was a lock to go to the desert. Looking at them now, I think Manning would have filled in quite well, but the Broncos have been fine. Great game if Carson Palmer plays. Less so if it is Drew Stanton.


2.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  @  Indianapolis Colts (2-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The Rivalry Continues" Sunday, as what was once an awesome rivalry in the Manning era gets to begin anew. They did meet in a forgettable Wild Card game two years ago, but that was Luck's first year. Both these teams are riding high right now. This is a great opportunity for the Colts to show up against a team that isn't terrible like they did the last two weeks.


1.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)  @  New England Patriots (2-2)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Anything can Happen" Sunday, as I would imagine anything happening in this game. I've thought the Patriots were falling apart before, only for them to win huge. Three years ago, following losses to Pittsburgh and New York, they went to play the Jets on a Sunday Night and won 37-16. Of course, that Patriots team was good enough to be 5-1 before the losing streak and made the Super Bowl. This one looks average or below at everything. The Bengals are better, and I could see them winning by 14+ as well. All the range of possibilities are in play in this one.

October Dreaming

It's a sad combination when you're both most excited for a baseball playoffs in years and also the least likely to watch a lot of the playoffs in years (given, you know, work). Still, October starts a day early this time, with the first play-in game on September 30th, but this will be one hell of a ride. No Yankees. No Red Sox. That hasn't happened since the early 90's. All we get are just ten really good teams, and three amazing stories. There will be October baseball in Kansas City. Hopefully more than a game. There will be October baseball in Pittsburgh. There will be at least two October nights in Baltimore. Five years ago those were three of the most despondent teams in the league. Five years ago Sports Illustrated said the Royals would make the playoffs by 2014. Well, right on schedule.

Baseball is at such an interesting place right now. With hitting at 30-year lows, and with the lack of PEDs letting players age naturally for once, young talent has dominated the sport. Getting good production out of your salary arbitration players is the largest advantage any team in MLB has. Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City have rode that advantage to the playoffs, and I couldn't be happier. In reality, the Pirates are now in teh playoffs for the 2nd straight season. The Orioles fluked their way to a playoff spot in 2012, but are back, and back with ease, just two years later. The Royals built this slowly, but are very deserving. Three teams, all with great stories, all with fanbases that were starving for October baseball. They'll all get it, at least one game at least.

This does't mean there aren't high-payroll, big market teams. The Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball. Their best player is getting (deservedly) paid 25+ million and will be for the next decade. The Angels have a high payroll and obtained the top free agent prizes in both 2012 and 2013. The Tigers did something of the same and have two of the highest paid players in baseball in Verlander (who, in all fairness, should probably not even start this playoffs) and Miggy Cabrera. The Cardinals are in the upper half with payroll, and are one of the marquis franchises. But that is why this playoffs is fun. There are big teams. There are the teams we've seen recently, including the AL World Series participant in 2012, and the NL rep. in 2010-2013. The Giants will try to continue their 'Win the World Series in all the Odd-number years'. The Nationals will try to erase the memory of their Game 5 collapse from two years ago. Everyone has something to play for.

I still don't know if I like the one-game playoff to start it, but when it allows more playoff teams to get in, I'm for it. It's fun having October baseball in your town, and this gives a chance for more teams to get just that. There's just a different energy in a baseball stadium in October. Especially when it is in colder areas, which we have a bunch this year. October baseball at night in Pittsburgh last year and Baltimore the year before that was just an incredible sports moment. I can imagine Kansas City being just the same tomorrow. October baseball in San Francisco has been awesome in both 2010 and 2012. Everything changes in October. Each pitch gets so heightened. Late game, close game, closer taking a while between pitches just staring down the batter. Suddenly, he pulls back to pitch. Your heart stops; time stops. That .5 seconds between the pitch reaching the batter takes a lifetime. It all starts tomorrow. October baseball is a timeless classic that I which more sports fans would embrace. I know I will.

NFL 2014: Week 4 Picks

New York Giants (1-2)  @  Washington Redskins (1-2)  (WAS -3.5)
Giants 27  Redskins 20  (NYG +3


Miami Dolphins (1-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (0-3)  (MIA -3.5)
Dolphins 23  Raiders 14  (MIA -3.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)  (PIT -7.5)
Buccaneers 13  Steelers 27  (PIT -7.5)


Buffalo Bills (2-1)  @  Houston Texans (2-1)  (HOU -3)
Bills 20  Texans 10  (BUF +3)


Tennessee Titans (1-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-2)  (IND -7.5)
Titans 17  Colts 30  (IND -7.5)


Detroit Lions (2-1)  @  New York Jets (1-2)  (DET -2.5)
Lions 17  Jets 23  (NYJ +2.5)


Carolina Panthers (2-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  (BAL -3.5)
Panthers 20  Ravens 16  (CAR +3.5)


Green Bay Packers (1-2)  @  Chicago Bears (2-1)  (GB -2)
Packers 27  Bears 24  (GB -2)


Atlanta Falcons (2-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-2)  (ATL -3)
Falcons 30  Vikings 20  (ATL -3)


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)  @  San Diego Chargers (2-1)  (SD -13)
Jaguars 17  Chargers 27  (JAX +13)


Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)  @  San Francisco 49ers (1-2)  (SF -4.5)
Eagles 24  49ers 27  (PHI +4.5)


New Orleans Saints (1-2)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-1)  (NO -3)
Saints 35  Cowboys 23  (NO -3)


New England Patriots (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)  (NE -3.5)
Patriots 20  Chiefs 24  (KC +3.5)

NFL 2014: Week 4 Power Rankings & The Rest

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

FALCONS (-7.5)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  1-0)

Cowboys (-2)  over  RAMS  (CORRECT  =  2-0)

Chargers (+2.5)  over  BILLS  (CORRECT  =  3-0)

EAGLES (-5.5)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  3-1)

SAINTS (-10.5)  over  Vikings  (CORRECT  =  4-1)

BENGALS (-7.5)  over  Titans  (CORRECT  =  5-1)

GIANTS (+1.5)  over  Texans  (CORRECT  =  6-1)

Ravens (-2)  over  BILLS  (Push  =  6-1-1)

Raiders (+14.5)  over  PATRIOTS  (CORRECT  =  7-1-1)

Colts (-7)  over  JAGUARS  (CORRECT  =  8-1-1)

LIONS (-1.5)  over  Packers  (CORRECT  =  9-1-1)

DOLPHINS (-4)  over  Chiefs  (WRONG  =  9-2-1)

CARDINALS (+2.5)  over  49ers  (CORRECT  =  10-2-1)

Broncos (+4.5)  over  SEAHAWKS  (CORRECT  =  11-2-1)

PANTHERS (-3.5)  over  Steelers  (WRONG  =  11-3-1)

Bears (+2.5)  over  JETS  (CORRECT  =  12-3-1)

Year-to-Date: 28-19-1

Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-3  =  44-119)

That wasn’t too surprising really. The Jaguars had essentially the exact same performance against the Colts at home last year, trailing again by 30 at the half. This time they had a shiny new rookie QB to turn to. I don’t think Bortles was all that bad, but he won’t survive behind that o-line. I’ve seen o-lines ruin young QB’s before and for the Jaguars’ sake, I hope that doesn’t happen here.

31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (0-3  =  45-95)

I’m not getting too crazy at how bad the Buccaneers have been yet. Sure, you would think a team with this many high-priced free agents to play better but free agency is not a great investment. Lovie Smith took a while to really make an impact in Chicago (the ’04 team in his first year was a disaster), and I think this is more than a 1-year deal here in Tampa Bay. That all said, my word was that game humiliating.

30.) Oakland Raiders  (0-3  =  37-65)

This is a sign of how little I think of New England that I’m not even giving the Raiders too much credit for playing the Pats close. The defense finally decided to play for a while, and their run defense showed up. Given that it is the Raiders in a post-2002 world, they’ll probably go back to giving up 200 yards on the ground a week again. The offense is so limited, but I will say that Derek Carr has all of the pocket presence that his elder brother lacked.

29.) Miami Dolphins  (1-2  =  58-83)

What a disaster the last two weeks have been. Losing to a Bills team in Buffalo the day they retire Ralph Wilson and honor cancer-survivor Jim Kelly was always going to be a challenge. Losing at home to an 0-2 Chiefs team missing key players by 19 was even worse. What is more strange is I really don’t understand how given that they won the yardage and turnover battle. Didn’t care enough about the team to find out either.

28.) Minnesota Vikings  (1-2  =  50-56)

Their blowout loss to the Patriots looks even worse now, but that was a decent performance on defense in the Superdome. Their defense is exceedingly well coached, as you knew they would given the man coaching them. Their pass rush has put together some nice pieces to play really effectively. Still, that offense is very limited without Peterson and with their o-line playing below their talent level.

27.) Tennessee Titans  (1-2  =  43-69)

Their dominant Week 1 win over the Chiefs seems like a lifetime ago. They’re probably not as bad as they’ve shown the last two weeks (walking into Cincinnati seems like a buzzsaw right now) but Locker is playing scared. The defense is holding their own, but still has too many miscommunications and too little talent. I think Whisenhunt turns to Mettenberger by Week 10.

26.) Cleveland Browns  (1-2  =  74-77)

I don’t really know why I have them this low, as Mike Pettine is a fantastic coach and Kyle Shanahan is halfway to undoing all the bad he did to his name last year in Washington. Still, their attempts to use Manziel are humorously misguided right now. I do fear that their close losses will take a toll on them later in the season.

25.) St. Louis Rams  (1-2  =  56-85)

Very surprised they blew that game. They also blew it in some of the most Jeff Fisher-esque ways, like having an overpriced ‘weapon’ make a terrible play like Jared Cook dropping an easy TD, and having a defense make one huge mistake, like they did by leaving Dez Bryant wide open. They had a real chance to keep pace in the NFC West, but right now I think they’re already done. Austin Davis does look like someone really worth evaluating the rest of this season though.

24.) Kansas City Chiefs  (1-2  =  61-65)

Their loss to the Titans might end up being a real outlier in what will be a mediocre team. Certainly, their close loss to the Broncos and now easy win in Miami have restored some faith in their hopes in 2014. The Patriots game will be a real test for an offense that is making good use of the limited weapons that they have. The defense still has some talent at the edges that can ruin average o-lines.

23.) New York Jets  (1-2  =  62-72)

I’m not really sure what to think of the Jets right now. On the one hand, their d-line is absolutely dominant and the front-seven is more talented than ever in the Rex era; on the other the secondary is ‘hot garbage’ as Deion Sanders would say. Rex schemes them about as well as possible, but it won’t be enough against better offenses. The Jets offense does seem better, but Geno still makes a few too many mistakes for my liking.

22.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-1  =  77-69)

It seems like they’ve somehow flown under the radar despite now being over .500. Of course, it doesn’t help that they beat two of the least interesting teams in the NFL (Titans and Rams). What’s good for them is they’ve won two road games already, and they’ve done some very un-Cowboys like things like focus on the run game and avoid having their probably past-his-peak QB throw too many times. Monte Kiffin’s defense is far better than it should given their personnel as well.

21.) Houston Texans  (2-1  =  64-50)

Snap back to reality… Oh, there goes Fitzy. I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick being the QB will be a problem going forward. Their defense looked slow in the secondary for the first time. Their offense looked very limited with Fitzpatrick and Andre struggled to get separation (so sad). The defense is still quite good but they have to improve their offense to really have a chance.

20.) Buffalo Bills  (2-1  =  62-52)

The Bills definitely lost a bit of their luster in that no-pun intended lack-luster performance against the Chargers. EJ Manuel is not there yet, scattering too many passes and lacking the real pocket presence to fully operate behind a suspect o-line. The weapons will still be used well because Doug Marrone has a good handle over all their various skills. The defense played pretty well, and will continue to do so, but I hope Stephon Gilmore is healthy.

19.) New York Giants  (1-2  =  58-77)

Their loss to the Lions and Cardinals may just be the issue with playing two good teams in the first two weeks of the season. Their offense looked so much better in Week 3. I have no idea what to think going forward, as they could easily regress to Week 1-2 level in their upcoming game, but they also could continue this level going forward. What I do know is that defense is still good when they don’t have to cover Calvin Johnson.

18.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-1  =  73-72)

Totally stunned by that win. No idea what the Panthers defense decided to do in that game, but the Steelers really brought their run game. The pass game is still in that ‘Todd Haley will over-rely on quick passes’ mode, but Roethlisberger makes it work because Roethlisberger is just a very god QB. The defense played decently well, but I can’t see them holding up with so many losses in personnel from that game. Getting James Harrison back is not the answer.

17.) Washington Redskins  (1-2  =  81-64)

Tough loss for them, as their defense got exposed in the back end, got even more injured in the back end, and their offense will likely only get worse. Kirk Cousins had a really nice game but that might say more about scheme and personnel than Cousins himself, given Cousins struggles all of last year when he was a starter.

16.) New Orleans Saints  (1-2  =  78-72)

Something’s up with their offense. Brees looked fine against Minnesota, but that team basically had three good drives all day. They have issues running the ball, and Brees is getting more pressure than normal. Their defense had by far the best day of the season, but it helps when the starting QB gets hurt midway through the game. I’m still skeptical of them long-term, but they won the game they had to win.

15.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-2  =  62-68)

Something’s up with their offense. Kaepernick looked fine against Arizona, but that team basically had three good drives all day. They have issues running the ball, and Kaepernick is getting more pressure than normal. Their defense did not have the best day of the season, even though it helps when they are playing Drew Stanton. I’m still skeptical of them long term, as they lost a game they probably needed to win.

14.) Indianapolis Colts  (1-2  =  95-78)

Nothing’s up with their offense. Despite running too much and being committed to either a heavy set or 5-wide, they’ve put up points every week. They’ll look a lot different if the referees didn’t suck at the end of the Eagles game. Andrew Luck looked great on Sunday, but that is Jacksonville. The Colts schedule is pretty soft, but tests are coming up later. Better to work out the kinks against the Jags and Titans of the world first.

13.) Green Bay Packers  (1-2  =  54-79)

Something is really up with their offense. Aaron Rodgers looks just off. He’s having to fit too many balls into tight windows, and he’s missing more of those than normal. Randall Cobb does not look healthy, and the TE is a nothing at this point. Maybe letting Greg Jennings and James Jones walk with no real replacement wasn’t the best plan of action? That defense played OK, but you never really know what they’ll be week to week.

12.) Chicago Bears  (2-1  =  75-62)

They looked very average in another win. I would like to see if any team has won back-to-back road games giving up over 400 yards and putting up less than 300? That’s a really random set of criteria, but it seems odd to win games getting outgained 415-280 on the road. Getting both Marshall and Jefferey healthy will be giant going forward. The defense still has no plan to stop anyone over the middle, but my word is Corey Fuller great.

11.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-0  =  101-78)

The Eagles are a weird team to me. On one hand, their offense is designed so well and guys are wide open and they score at will. On the other hand, if the ref calls a clear hold against them in the MNF game at Indy, and if like one of five things don’t go their way against Washington, they are 0-2 with the only win coming against Jacksonville (a game they trailed deservedly 17-0). Foles hasn’t looked great. McCoy hasn’t looked great. Yet here they are scoring 30+ each week.

10.) Atlanta Falcons  (2-1  =  103-72)

You really can’t take much from their evisceration of Tampa Bay, but the Falcons offense looks superb if Matt Ryan gets time. They are using Devin Hester in a really nice way, and Julio Jones looks unstoppable. I’m still worried about their defense, but the pass rush showed some signs of limited life against Tampa Bay. Their two young corners are players, man.

9.) New England Patriots  (2-1  =  66-49)

In a lot of defensive categories, they are one of the best teams in the league. Issue is, of course, that they’ve played two of the worst eight offenses in the NFL. The Raiders struggled to get anything against the Jets and Texans and while they struggled against New England, Derek Carr had all day. The offense is even worse. The Raiders were a sieve against the run and the Pats couldn’t get a yard if they needed to. Something is amiss. Reputation alone is keeping them in the Top-10.

8.) Baltimore Ravens  (2-1  =  65-50)

Gutty win in a game they easily could have lost. The Ravens had to come back time and time again as their defense couldn’t hold a lead, but the offense showed it could get one. Flacco borders between really solid in that offense and uncomfortable. Have to think that dissipates as the season goes on. They could be a fringe contender, which I was not expecting before the season started.

7.) Carolina Panthers  (2-1  =  63-58)

I’m not jumping off after a bad performance, as that was likely the worst defensive game they’ll play all season. It is slightly concerning that they couldn’t get much pressure against Roethlisberger, but Todd Haley did everything to make sure Ben got it out quick. Their run defense won’t be that bad again. Problem for Carolina is the brutal schedule they have coming up.

6.) Arizona Cardinals  (3-0  =  66-45)

Good news is that they are 3-0. Bad news is they easily could have lost Week 1 to San Diego. Good news is San Diego is really good so losing to them wouldn’t have been a scourge. Bad news is they continue to lose players and have to resort to blitzing to get pass pressure. Good news is their secondary is deep enough that blitzing isn’t a bad strategy.

5.) Detroit Lions  (2-1  =  61-45)

The offense did their best to make the game close, but the defense of the Lions was fantastic, and has been much of the year. They swallowed up the run game. Fairley looks good, and Suh quietly has been a monster this season. The offense needs to develop some reliable strategy outside of Calvin, but if the defense can be close to what it was against Green Bay, this could be a scary, scary team.

4.) San Diego Chargers  (2-1  =  69-49)

I think the Bills were not a great 2-0 team, but that was an impressive performance in a 1PM EST game after a huge win. No letdown for this team. The defense is probably worse than those 49 points would indicate given how little they’ve actually been on the field, but the Chargers won’t give up a lot of points. Most of that is the offense, which has perfected scoring on long, time consuming drives.

3.) Denver Broncos  (2-1  =  75-67)

Obviously, a tough loss, but they did show they can play with Seattle. You can say Seattle dominated that game, but in reality the game was a complete draw through 60 minutes. The Seahawks had a dominant 5 minute stretch to close out the 1^st half, and the Broncos responded with a dominant 7-8 minutes to close out the game. Manning’s drive was brilliant. His arm looks as good as its been in Denver, and I think they’ll start attacking teams deeper more; or at least they should.

2.) Seattle Seahawks  (2-1  =  83-66)

Gutty win for a team that I’m sure was shocked they had to play more than 60 minutes. That defense, when they’re on, is just amazing. The offense has issues. Unpopular opinion, but I don’t think Russell Wilson has really improved this year. He’s still skittish under pressure. He still has issues repeatedly hitting players. He’s good enough that it doesn’t matter, but put him on a team without BeastMode and without the LOB, and I do wonder how good he would be.

1.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-0  =  80-33)

The three teams that they’ve played in games not against the Bengals have gone 5-1. The Falcons scored 37 in Week 1 (over 500 yards of offense), then scored 49 on offense in Week 3 (high-400 yards of offense). In Week 2, they scored 10 points and struggled to get to 250 yards. That defense is amazing. The offense hasn’t even played a good 60 minutes yet. There’s little chance it lasts, but they’ve been utterly dominant through three games.

Looking Ahead to Next Week’s Games

Bye: Arizona Cardinals (3-0), Cincinnati Bengals (3-0), Denver Broncos (2-1), San Diego Chargers (2-1), Seattle Seahawks (2-1), St. Louis Rams (1-2)

Obviously, you can’t anticipate these things, but to me we are missing teams that I had ranked #6 and #4-1 all in the same week. Knowing this, if there was ever a week to not watch football and go out and actually do something on Sunday, this is the Week. This will probably be my ‘bye week’, where I go out on Sunday and then power through 7 hours and 30 minutes of Red Zone in 2 hours in the night.

13.) Miami Dolphins (1-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (0-3)  (1:00 – CBS)

12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)  (1:00 – FOX)

11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)  @  San Diego Chargers  (4:05 – CBS)

I call it “Thank God for Florida State” Sunday, as we get the three Florida teams, all playing badly, all playing on the road. The Dolphins take a trip to England, the Buccaneers take a trip to Heinz, and the Jags take a trip to a likely slaughtering.

10.) Tennessee Titans (1-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-2)  (1:00 – CBS)
9.) Atlanta Falcons (2-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-2)  (4:25 – FOX)

I call it “Sometimes, the game is just a game” Sunday, as I have nothing to say about these two games. I feel bad for the people who get the Falcons @ Vikings game as the ‘Fox Doubleheader America’s Game of the Week’ Game. The Titans and Colts is quite uninspiring, a rivalry that hasn’t had juice since 2009.

8.) Buffalo Bills (2-1)  @  Houston Texans (2-1)  (1:00 – CBS)

I call it the “One of these teams is going to be 3-1!” Sunday, as ONE OF THESE TWO TEAMS IS GOING TO BE 3-1!!!!

7.) Detroit Lions (2-1)  @  New York Jets (1-2)  (1:00 – FOX)

6.) New York Giants (1-2)  @  Washington Redskins (1-2)  (TNF – CBS)

5.) New England Patriots (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)  (MNF – ESPN)

I call it “Six Teams with a lot to Prove” Sunday and Monday, as all these teams have something to show. The Lions have to show that they aren’t the old Lions. The Jets have to show some life before the schedule gets really hard (have fun with Chargers, Broncos, Pats the next three games). The Giants have to show last week wasn’t a fluke and they have this offense figured out. The Redskins have to show that they can compete in the NFC East. The Pats have to show that their offense is not a disaster, and the Chiefs have to show that the only reason they won was not due to the Dolphins being a disaster.

4.) New Orleans Saints (1-2)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-1)  (SNF – NBC)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)  @  San Francisco 49ers (1-2)  (4:25 – FOX)

2.) Green Bay Packers (1-2)  @  Chicago Bears (2-1)  (1:00 – FOX)

I call it “Can the three Underacheivers get Back on Track?” Sunday, as the Saints, Packers and 49ers, three of the preseason favorites in the NFC behind the Seahawks (in fact, the three favorites behind the Seahawks) are all 1-2 playing teams with better records. The Packers really can’t afford a loss, but neither can the 49ers given that their schedule is only getting harder (still have 5 games against the NFC West). The Saints can’t afford a loss either, and have to play a road primetime game, which hasn’t gone well recently.

1.) Carolina Panthers (2-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  (1:00 – FOX)

I call it “Ice Up Son” Sunday, as Steve Smith plays the Panthers. Need I say Fucking More.

NFL 2014: Week 3 Picks

Putting these out quickly before the games start.

Buccaneers 17  @  Falcons 31  (ATL -7.5)
Cowboys 23  @  Rams 20  (DAL -2)
Chargers 27  @  Bills 20  (SD +2.5)
Redskins 23  @  Eagles 30  (PHI -5.5)
Vikings 16  @  Saints 34  (NO -10.5)
Titans 13  @  Bengals 27  (CIN -7.5)
Texans 17  @  Giants 20  (NYG +1.5)
Ravens 23  @  Browns 13  (BAL -2)
Raiders 17  @  Patriots 28  (OAK +14.5)
Colts 34  @  Jaguars 16  (IND -7)
Packers 24  @  Lions 27  (DET -1.5)
Chiefs 13  @  Dolphins 20  (MIA -4)
49ers 17  @  Cardinals 20  (ARZ +2.5)
Broncos 24  @  Seahawks 27  (DEN +4.5)
Steelers 13  @  Panthers 23  (CAR -3.5)
Bears 27  @  Jets 23  (CHI +2.5)