2013 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

(N6) New Orleans Saints (11-5)  @  (N1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Sat 4:35  -  FOX  |  Seahawks -9

State of the Teams: Well, the Saints are still on the road, and the Seahawks are still at home. See how easy it is to make this game seem really easy? The Seahawks are not only at home but get their nominal #1 receiver back for the 2nd time all year (and the first time lasted one game) in Percy Harvin. The Seahawks have few injuries really to worry about. Their o-line hasn't been good for much of the year in pass blocking even after their starters came back. The Seahawks also have no real weakness. They rank in the Top-10 in DVOA in pass offense, rush offense, pass defense and rush defense. The standout unit is the pass defense, which was by far the best in the NFL this season. They were in the Top-10 covering #1 recievers, #2 receivers, other receivers, tight ends and running backs. There is really no weakness there. The Saints have weaknesses. Their rush defense is not great over the course of the season (it was fantastic last week). The Saints are good in pass defense, mainly coming from their pass rush. Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette have been monsters all season long. The Saints have also had to hear, right after winning a road playoff game, how they can't win this game on the road.


Matchup: We saw this matchup recently, a game that the Seahawks dominated to no end. The Seahawks even refused to give the Saints garbage-time yards. Brees completed 23 passes, for just 147 yards. They had no run game. On the other side, Russell Wilson cut them up, having one of the best games of his career. Even outside of that game, the Seahawks have all of the matchup edges. They get to go against a soft defense. They have a defense themselves that excels against the pass, and the Saints will need more from their passing game this week than they got last week. The Seahawks were #3 in DVOA against Tight Ends, #2 against Running Backs, and #5 against #1 receivers. So I guess the Saints better hope Lance Moore has a big game. The Seahawks are also by far the best red zone defense in the NFL, while the Saints have struggled in the red zone, especially on the road. Even the weather - expected rain showers throughout - point to Seattle. The only matchup that favors the Saints is they have a good enough pass rush at times to dominate the Seahawks O-Line.


The Pick: Obviously, everyone is taking the Seahawks in this, most with the points. The line is high, and in recent years there has been a big favorite losing each year (at least since 2007 it's happened every year). I just can't see it here. I think the Saints defense is good enough to keep them in the game, and I'll take the Saints to cover a low-scoring game, but their offense is just not good enough on the road, despite what a nice rushing performance against a poor defense last week says. The Saints struggle to get YAC on the road, and the Seahawks are awesome at stopping YAC. I think either of the two teams they could potentially play in the NFC Title Game has a shot at beating Seattle, but the Saints just don't have the matchups to do it in my mind. Nothing points to them, especially the Saints lack of red zone play on both sides of the ball.

Saints 16   Seahawks 24   (NO +9)

(A4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)  @  (A2) New England Patriots (12-4)

Sat 8:10  -  CBS  |  Patriots -7.5

State of the Teams: Coming into the game, we will hear a lot about the Patriots injury situation. Admittedly, it is scary how many of their better players they have lost for the year (Wilfork, Mayo, Spikes, Gronkowski, Vollmer), but they still have more talent. The Colts themselves are missing their top-two offensive players not named Luck from preseason (Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen). TY Hilton might take over from Allen, but this would be a better team with Dwayne Allen playing. Both teams have been effected by their injuries and overall responded well. The Colts are more high-variance, so on days they aren't up, the lack of depth kills them as seen by their bad losses to St. Louis, Arizona or Cincinnati. The Patriots are the least variable team in the league, essentially playing pretty equally each game, so their down performances aren't bad, but their top performances aren't special. Both teams have played a bevy of close games, and both have had their share of comebacks in this season. By DVOA totals and splits, the defenses are pretty much equal. The offenses aren't, but without Gronkowski, the one major weakness for the Patriots offense, their red zone offense, could cripple them in the playoffs.


Matchup: By DVOA, these teams are closer than people would think. The major difference is the Patriots offense ended better than the Colts offense. I'm skeptical for a few reasons. First, the Patriots offense by design is loved by DVOA. Far better Patriots offense's by DVOA have thrown up terrible playoff performances. Secondly, they've struggled without Gronkowski. The Colts offensive numbers are also depressed by struggling after Wayne went down, but they've seemed to realize that the answer to that isn't 'Run Richardson More'. Both teams are average in the red zone on offense and defense. Both teams are average or worse covering any type of receiving option. The Patriots have a better pass rush, but worse secondary. The big difference is variance. The Colts defense, which is not great, has the highest variance in DVOA in the NFL. They can play great games, they can play bad games. Most of their great games came against good offenses (Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Indianapolis, KC in the regular season). It could happen again. On the other side, Brady has taken more sacks, so some try to blame to O-Line injuries, but the O-Line has done a fantastic job of opening up running lanes for Ridley and Blount. The matchups are close, but a lot of that depends on which Colts team shows up.


The Pick: I can't believe that I have hope the Colts win this game, but I can't pick them. The line has steadied around a TD, which I think is fair. When you are picking games, you can't bank on things like high variance teams. Factor in that the simulation where the Colts bring their A game and win could happen, but it isn't something you can count on. The injury situation in the secondary really hurts the Colts, as they lost their advantage against teh Patriots receivers. The Patriots also will not make the coverage mistakes the Chiefs made. They'll keep guys behind Hilton. They have an underrated pass rush that can get consistent pressure on Andrew Luck. I hate that the Colts could have their first real playoff run of the Luck era end in New England.

Colts 20  Patriots 30  (NE -7.5)

(N5) San Franciscio 49ers (12-4)  @  (N2) Carolina Panthers (12-4)

Sun 1:05  -  FOX  |  49ers -1.5

The State of the Teams: The 49ers enter hot off of seven straight victories. Of course, they entered the first meeting with Carolina hot off of five straight victories. The difference is the players that are back for the 49ers. That first meeting was Aldon Smith's first game back after his leave for rehab. Aldon Smith looked dominant against Green Bay. The 49ers also didn't have Michael Crabtree in that game and he looked dominant against the Packers. The 49ers also lost Vernon Davis midway through the game with a concussion, and while he didn't look dominant against the Packers, he scored a TD and is still good. The Panthers on the other side rested their #2 defense in the NFL. On defense they do everything well. They force the most field goals in the NFL. They get more pressure on the QB than any team in the NFL, becoming the first team since 2006 to have 60 sacks. Their offense struggled the last two weeks of the season, but are probably getting Steve Smith and definitely getting Jonathan Stewart back. Both teams are really good, and however hot the 49ers are, the Panthers themselves are 11-1 in their last 12 games, the lone loss being a SNF loss in the Superdome.


The Matchup: Yes, the last time they played it was a 10-9 game with the 49ers missing guys, but the 49ers were also fortunate to get 9 points. Two of their drives started in Carolina territory, one after a muffed punt the other after a Newton interception. The 49ers had just 151 yards on the day. They had just one drive over 20 yards. That is staggeringly great defense. The Panthers abused the 49ers o-line which quietly is not nearly as good at pass blocking as people think. The 49ers rush defense isn't nearly as good this year as it was the past two years, which is not a good thing heading into a game with the #4 DVOA rush offense. The Panthers are also really good in the red zone offensively. Overall, I think people are assuming the 49ers in 2013 are the same as they were in 2011-12. They aren't. The defense is merely good, not great. They dominated some bad teams, but struggled against most of the good offenses the played against. Kaepernick definitely looks better with Crabtree back, but he still struggles to throw under pressure (not on the run - so if he escapes pressure he's fine), and is too inaccurate. Contrary to popular belief, there really isn't much the 49ers do better than Carolina.


The Pick: The biggest weakness of the Panthers is their secondary. Now, it's better than most believe, but it can be picked apart by good QBs who get time. Kaepernick likely won't have time. The Panthers have the best pass rush in the playoffs, and they'll be at home. I think it has gotten lost how good this defense is. They played a better offense three weeks ago in New Orleans, and held them to 13. If they do that, they likely win. Twice this year we've asked if the 49ers have the ability to beat the good teams. A three-point win over a 8-7-1 team doesn't do it for me. The fact that they're favorites makes it even easier. The 49ers know this game. They were the last team to be a home underdog on divisional weekend. I can't think of a better motivator for the Panthers than that.

49ers 13  Panthers 20  (CAR +1.5)

(A6) San Diego Chargers (9-7)  @  (A1) Denver Broncos (13-3)

Sun 4:45  -  CBS  |  Broncos -9

State of the Teams: The Chargers enter off their 2nd best performance of the year (the 1st being their win over Denver in the regular season), beating the Bengals down in a way that mirrored what the Jets did to the Bengals in 2009 - capitalizing on a bad game by the Bengals QB and rushing the ball wild while having their QB complete 12 passes. The Chargers play a certain way. They control the ball, convert 3rd downs, stay on the field, and make you beat them in less possessions than normal. It works when their defense can get a turnover or two. It doesn't when they can't or if they struggle in the red zone. The Broncos are the opposite. They play fast, try to score as much as possible, and try to make each game last as long as possible so their offensive advantages have time to make an impact. The Broncos are the best in the red zone, converting trips for TDs far more than any other team, putting a lot of pressure on the opposing team to do the same. The Broncos defense comes off of their two best performances of the year even without Von Miller, but that came against two bad offenses, not a great one. They'll need their pass rush to step up, particularly Shaun Phillips who was great when Miller was suspended in Weeks 1-6. The Chargers have a lot of crucial guys questionable, like Nick Hardwick and Ryan Mathews, and if they're out it could severely limit their chances to do what they want to do.


Matchup: They played twice. Yes, despite what the Chargers did in Week 15, they did lose to Denver earlier. That game was actually similar to the Week 15 game. The winner went up big early and ended up winning a game less close than the score indicated. The difference was Denver didn't even play their best in Week 8, but played their absolutely worst game in Week 15. The biggest key to me is red zone. The Chargers are great on 3rd down, while the Broncos are bad on 3rd down defense, but the one place on offense the Chargers struggle on is in the red zone. They struggled mightily there in the 1st matchup, and even struggled last week as they could have put the Bengals away sooner but twice settled for field goals inside the 10. They can't do that to Denver. Denver also needs to not make the same mistakes as they did last time. Manning saw their blitzes in Week 15, if he can diagnose them, he should cut apart the weak Chargers secondary. On the other side, the Broncos secondary is healthier than it has been all year, but their pass rush is at its weakest. A key will be the play of Bailey, who I'm guessing they put on Keenan Allen at least to start.


The Pick: I think the Broncos win. To me there are a lot of similarities here to the Ravens @ Colts divisional round game in 2009. Those Ravens also went 9-7, and then beat down the #3 seed in the Wild Card round on the road by capitalizing on a QB meltdown (for them it was Brady), and nearly 200 yards rushing. Those Ravens played those Colts once, a close 17-15 loss. They went in hot and motivated, and lost 20-3. I think this will be closer. This Broncos defense is not as good as that Colts unit. The line is just too high. Only once have the Chargers lost by more than a TD this year. They just don't make the game long enough to lose by that much. In the end, the Denver offense is just better. If they don't drop passes, or go offsides on punts giving the Chargers free 1st downs, they should be fine. It might get tough at times, but they're too good offensively against a defense too average to not score enough to win.

Chargers 23  Broncos 31  (SD +9)

Enjoy the Games!!

2013 NFL Playofffs: Wild-Card Weekend Review

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Chiefs (-3)  over  COLTS  (WRONG  =  0-1)
Saints (+3)  over  EAGLES  (CORRECT  =  1-1)
BENGALS (-7)  over  Chargers  (WRONG  =  1-2)
49ers (-2.5)  over  PACKERS  (CORRECT  =  2-2)


Player of the Week - TY Hilton (WR-IND)

I'll give it away now, but my runner-up was Andrew Luck. I give this to Hilton because he had no bad plays. Luck did have three interceptions, two of which were bad throws that led to points. Hilton was not the intended target on any of those TDs except the last one. Hilton also had 13 catches and 224 yards (both Colts' playoff records), and two TDs. Hilton ran every type of route, kind of showing the world that he is more than just a deep-threat, although the National Media will pretend that all he did was run deep routes. What a game for him.

Runner Up - Andrew Luck (QB-IND)

Once again, the first two inteceptions by Luck were bad throws. But outside of that he was incredible. He stayed tough in the pocket early when the Chiefs were getting pressure. He ran when he needed to. He made incredible throws in the 2nd half. He was a tad overrated just by his statistics, but my God was that an amazing performance, a true coming-out party (of course, if he goes 20-37 for 220 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs this weekend in a 34-17 loss, no one will remember this).



Goat of the Week - Andy Dalton (QB-CIN)

There is a lot of blame to go around for the Bengals offense (and I'll get to those guys in a bit), but Dalton was just awful in the 2nd half. His fumble was totally inexplicable. The first pick was a rushed throw, but a bad one. The 2nd was a terrible read. Just a bad game overall by Dalton. He wasn't helped, but he was bad on his own. Before people crucify him, Matt Ryan also started his career 0-3 in the playoffs, with quite bad performances in all three games. As did Peyton Manning. I still think Andy Dalton is no worse than Joe Flacco.

Runner-Up - Chip Kelly (Coach-PHI)

What was going on with their game-plan? I'll admit I haven't watched as much Eagles football as I should have this year, but did he ever have so many plays called with Foles under center as in that game? Did it seem like they were taking more time than normal between plays? It just felt like the Eagles lost their identity in that game, which is pretty inexplicable at home. The Saints defense played well, but Kelly's strangely conservative gameplan didn't help. Then to cap it all off, his decision to kick a field goal down 20-14 facing 4th and 1 was quite bad.


Surprise of the Week - San Diego Pass Rush

In their Week 13 loss to the Bengals, the Chargers got just one pressure on Andy Dalton during the game. That is not a type. One solitary pressure. In this game, they had many pressures. Their blitzes worked wonderfully (see their first interception). Their four-man rush worked wonderfully. Melvin Ingram had a huge game. The pass rush needs to be as good against the Broncos for them to have any chance.

Runner-Up - Kansas City Chiefs Wideouts

The Chiefs wideouts were maligned much of the year. For good reason, as highly-paid Dwayne Bowe did nothing all year long. Their two top receivers by receptions were running backs. Well, they wideouts played great in this one. The only mistake was Bowe getting 1.5 feet in bounds on the last play. Bowe was great all night running a various number of routes. Avery caught a deep TD. Even Junior Hemmingway played well. Nice game in a losing effort.


Disappointment of the Week - Green Bay Packers Passing Offense

It wasn't all Aaron Rodgers fault, but a team performance. So much was made about Aaron Rodgers coming back, Randall Cobb coming back and that thing exploded in their face. Yes, they didn't turn-it-over, but Aaron Rodgers returning didn't make the Packers suddenly good at pass protection. He didn't sudden;y make James Jones into a sure-handed receiver. But some of it goes on Rodgers too. He looked deep way too often, allowing the pass rush to get to him. He was inaccurate on those downfield throws at times. Of course, when he was accurate, his receivers couldn't catch it. Just a bad performance.

Runner-Up: LeSean McCoy (RB-PHI)

Some of the blame goes on Chip Kelly for basically letting the Saints know when they were going to run by going with heavy sets, but McCoy did nothing. This is the leading rusher in the NFL who basically laid an egg in a playoff game. He didn't even get open in the passing game. A forgettable performance for a good player, which is a statement that could be made about any player on the Philadelphia Eagles offense.


Team Performance of the Week - New Orleans Saints defense

I've criticized the Eagles offense a lot so far, but I should probably also give some credit to the Saints defense for making it all happen. The Saints rush defense was below average at best all season, and they shut down the league's best run attack. The pass defense was good enough, making Foles have to go to his 2nd and 3rd read a lot. I was so wrong about Rob Ryan's defense all year long. My opinion in the preseason was well-founded on previous results, but he's done work that he has never done before this season.

Runner-Up - San Diego Chargers Rush Offense

The Chargers rush offense is not bad, but it isn't good either. Well, they were excellent in this game. Whether it was Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead, or even Ronnie Brown, the Chargers were able to run the ball against one of the better fronts. Yes, the Bengals were missing Geno Atkins, but that didn't let a lot of other teams run the ball effectively against them. The Chargers dominated and frustrated the Bengals all day with that run game.


Team Laydown of the Week - Cincinnati Bengals Skill Positions

So, Andy Dalton was terrible, but so was Gio Bernard, AJ Green and Tyler Eifert. Bernard had probably the biggest mistake of the game, fumbling at the 4 yard line. Going into halftime up 14-7 insetad of 10-7 isn't that big, but it changed the rest of the game. Green dropped one of Dalton's few well thrown deep balls with the Bengals down 20-17 with quite a bit of time left, more than enough to pull the game out after that. Finally, Eifert showed no effort and lazy route running on Dalton's 2nd INT. Andy Dalton was bad, but so was the rest of the Bengals offensive skill position players.

Runner-Up - Kansas City Chiefs pass defense

Yes, Brandon Flowers got hurt, but the rest of the Chiefs pass defense was terrible. Marcus Cooper has never recovered from being beat by Peyton Manning in Weeks 11 and 13. Dunta Robinson looked like he had never played football before. Eric Berry was bad in coverage. Both DBs on the game-winning TD were totally lost. Just a pathetic display.


Storyline That Will be Beat Into the Ground this Week - Playing a Divisional Opponent is Tough

The Broncos and Chargers will square off for the 3rd time this season on Sunday. Of course, because they are divisional opponents somehow this a harder challenge. That never made sense to me, as both teams have the same chance to take something from their two meetings. Yes, the Chargers beat Denver in Denver, in by far the worst game the Broncos played all season and the best the Chargers did. The Broncos also beat San Diego in San Diego, which is as meaningful. In recent years with division teams playing a 3rd matchup, there is little correlation between regular season results and the postseason.

Runner-Up - The 49ers were Missing So Many People

The 49ers have already been bet into being a favorite in their game at Carolina. Of course this is after the Panthers beat San Francisco in Candlestick earlier this year. Many people will point to Michael Crabtree not playing and Vernon Davis being concussed midway through, I think the Panthers will be very undervalued. This is a team that has played better at home, and that should have won the first meeting by a lot more than 10-9. They dominated in yardage and overall play, but played a close game because of field position. If anything, they are about the same this time around.


Storyline That Should be Beat Into the Ground this Week - Colts @ Patriots is Future vs. Past

The Patriots have been the best franchise of the past 15 years. The Steelers/Colts/Ravens have some argument for 2nd, but the Patriots are the best franchise. Well, they're playing the team with the best outlook for the next 15 other than maybe Seattle. The Colts are best equipped to be the next Patriots. They have the best young QB in the game. They have a dynamic young receiver and two young TEs. More than anything, they have Luck. The real fun is just beginning for Colts fans, and the Pats will try to hold off them for one more year.

Runner-Up - Defense is Alive, Baby!

The NFC Playoffs had just one team cross 400 yards of offense, and no QB throw for 300 yards. I would find it unlikely that either San Francisco, Carolina, or their two QBs match that in this weeks game, and given what happened the last time New Orleans trekked to Seattle, maybe they won't either. For all the pomp about the QBs in the NFC, the playoff field in that conference is defined by their defenses. They showed that last week, and can easily continue this week and the next. The only offense-first team left is one that won't be hosting any more games.

2013 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Picks

The playoffs are here. The greatest 5-week mini-series in the world. 11 games. 12 teams. 9 different stadiums. 3 networks. 6 announcing crews. So much to love. Let's get going with the Wild Card picks.

(A5)  Kansas City Chiefs  (11-5)   @   (A4)  Indianapolis Colts  (11-5)

Sat. 4:35  -  NBC  |  Kansas City -1.5

The State of the Teams: The Chiefs enter this game on a low of a 2-5 finish after a 9-0 start (the worst ever finish for a team that finished 9-0), but on the high of nearly winning a game playing just two starters against a team playing for its playoff life. The Chiefs are basically the reverse of what they were early in the season. The offense has stayed pretty consistent but definitely got better as the year along. The defense, in large part due to injuries to Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, fell apart after a great start to become a decidedly mediocre unit. Houston is expected to play, which will help pump life into a listless pass rush. The Colts, on the other side, come in off of three complete games. In the immediate aftermath of the Reggie Wayne injury the Colts struggled mightily, but have righted themselves by stopping their abashed commitment to the run and letting Luck loose. The defense has also allowed just 20 combined points over their last three games. This is an odd situation for the Colts, to actually enter a playoff tournament playing really well.


The Matchup: These teams played just two weeks ago, and the Colts won relatively easily. They won in Kansas City, shutting down an offense that had scored 80 points in the previous two games and allowing just 7 points. Of course, there seems to be little correlation in recent years from regular season results to playoff rematches. That doesn't mean the Chiefs will win (the Texans certainly played the same in their regular season and playoff losses to New England last year), but doesn't mean the Colts will win. First, the Chiefs have some of their horses back, like Houston and Brandon Albert. The biggest individual unit mismatches are in the Chiefs favor. The Chiefs had the #2 rushing DVOA in the NFL, while the Colts were #22 against the run. The other unit vs. unit matchups are pretty even, but that one is jarring. The other edge is the Chiefs in Special Teams. They were the #1 Special Teams by DVOA, mainly because of their returning proficiency. The Colts aren't bad like they were in the Manning era, but they have been below average covering kicks. The Colts play enough receivers in most of their plays to get some good matchups with the lower depth of the Chiefs secondary, which is necessary, since the Chiefs are good against #1 and #2 receivers. In the end, the Colts scored 23 points because they got an uncharacteristically sloppy game from the Chiefs, and had two hard to repeat long Donald Brown TD. The game itself was closer than the 23-7 score.


The Pick: The Chiefs have lost their last 8 playoff games, three of which were to the Colts (1995, 2003, 2006). This very matchup started off the 2006 playoffs, a nice little de-ja-vu for Colts fans. That said, I do like the Chiefs here. The Chiefs have the one largest unit vs. unit advantage, with their #2 rush offense against a poor rush defense. They also have both edge rushers for the first time since Week 11, which should help them get pressure on Andrew Luck. The Colts have risen to the occasion this season against good teams, and that could certainly continue, but the matchups just don't favor the Colts here. They have to hope that their high-variance team (3rd highest offensive variance, the highest defensive variance) hits both of its high marks today, and that isn't all that likely. I hate picking against this Colts team, mainly because they've done some incredible things, but this team still has too many holes and a good, balanced team like Kansas City should take advantage of them.

 

Chiefs 27  Colts 21  (KC -3)

(N6)  New Orleans Saints  (11-5)   @   (N3)  Philadelphia Eagles  (10-6)

Sat. 8:05  -  NBC  |  Philadelphia -3

The State of the Teams: Do you know that the Saints aren't great on the road? No, well let me tell you about it. At home, they were 8-0, scoring 272 points and allowing 125. If you take their home numbers are double them (essentially a 16-game season at home), they score 545 points, allow 250, gain 7,092 yards and allow 4,324. Basically that would make them the greatest team of all time. On the road, they are decidedly mediocre in every way. If they played a 16-game road season, they score 284 points, allow 358, gain 5,690 yards and allow 5,458 yards. The most points they allowed at home was 17. The fewest points they allowed on the road was 14. The fewest points they scored at home was 23. They only crossed that number twice on the road. This may have not been true early in the Brees/Payton era, but since 2011 it has gotten to a scary degree. The Eagles are entering hot, off of a 7-1 streak to end the season. They have been a very good team, but they really don't have many big wins, and if anything their final win against Dallas showed some flaws that were hidden in big wins against bad teams. They have trouble protecting Foles (or Foles takes too many sacks), and their defense has trouble if they can't get ressure.


The Matchup: I don't have Football Outsiders premium, so I can't see their home/road splits for the Saints (and if I did, I probably wouldn't put stats they give behind a paywall here), so I can only go by their overall season stats. I would assume they are worse across the board at home. The Eagles bad pass defense (25th by DVOA) is not a good matchup against the #3 passing offense, but that passing offense is worse at home, and the Eagles pass defense has gotten better week by week over the season. The more interesting matchups come on the other side. The Eagles offense big weakness is their o-line, which has allowed way too much pressure on Foles. Well, the Saints are 3rd in adjusted sack rate, and they can easily pressure Foles a lot in this game. Both the Saints defense and Eagles offense struggles in the red zone, and I would think the unit that overcomes its problems there will win the game. The Saints rush defense is better in advanced statistics than it is in conventional ones, but LeSean McCoy can still have a good game.


The Pick: It is odd to think this about the Saints, but I don't see them winning a high scoring game. I can see them winning a lower scoring one, though. First, their defense is decidedly better than the Eagles defense, despite the recent improvement by Philadelphia on that side. The Saints best chance really could be their pace. They specialize on having long, drawn-out drives on the offensive side, while the Eagles allow long drives. They can easily shorten this game to less than 10 possessions despite how quickly the Eagles play on offense. The Saints are not great on the road, but they do have some nice matchups edges here with their pass rush against the Eagles porous o-line and Foles who doesn't fare well against 4-5 man pressure. I hate to use motivation to pick these games, but the Saints have heard all week how bad they are on the road, and how the franchise has never won a playoff game on the road. That all said, I would love to pick the Saints, but those season-long numbers on the road vs. at home speak numbers. The Saints screen and YAC parts of the offense don't work as well on the road. The line is pretty low giving some value for Philadelphia, and I think they pull it out.

Saints 23  Eagles 28  (PHI -3)

(A6)  San Diego Chargers  (9-7)   @   (A3)  Cincinnati Bengals  (11-5)

Sun. 1:05  -  CBS  |  Cincinnati -7

The State of the Teams: The Chargers enter the playoffs with the longest winning streak (4 games). That hasn't led to much success for the team holding that distinction in recent years (Broncos last year, Patriots the two years before, the Chargers in 2009), but the 4-game win streak doesn't compare to those (11, 8, 8, 11 games). The Chargers offense comes in playing exceedingly well, but because they limit the game (something odd for offense-heavy teams), they never end up really scoring that much. The Chargers defense is not good, and they're coming off a low with needing some help to beat a team playing its backups. The Bengals are probably ruing their OT loss to Miami, or their partially flukey loss in Pittsburgh as it cost them the #2 seed. They do enter 8-0 at home, and while I won't go through the whole process like I did with the Saints, they have been dominant in most of those games, scoring 49, 42, 42, 41 and 34 points in their last five home games. The Bengals are reasonably healthy, getting both TEs back this week and possibly Terrence Newman. The weather is expected to be quite poor. Not all that cold (especially relative to what is going to happen later on Sunday), but with rain and snow.


The Matchup: This game really comes down to the Chargers offense (#2 in the NFL) against the Bengals defense (#5 in the NFL - better than that most likely at home). The Bengals have help up very well despite losing Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Their pass rush has dropped since Atkins went out, but not by all that much and their depth in the secondary and their linebacker play has picked up for it. The Bengals are excellent covering #1 and #2 receivers, and TEs, which could give a problem to the Chargers. The one bright spot for San Diego is the Bengals relative weakness against RBs in the passing game, and the fact that the Chargers use Danny Woodhead, a lot. The Chargers have a lot of long sustained drives, but too many of them end in field goals, while the Bengals are a Top-10 red zone defense. On the other side, the Chargers have the worst defense by DVOA, and while the Bengals are just average, they have the ability to play better. Dalton has had some terrible games, but he's generally been good. These teams did meet a month ago in San Diego, a game which Cincinnati won 17-10. This will probably be higher scoring, but since the Chargers love long drives, on offense and defense, it might not be.


The Pick: Cincinnati is better in almost every way. Even San Diego's biggest strength (their pass offense), a matches up with Cincinnati's biggest strength (pass defense). The Bengals are even better on Special Teams. And this is all stats that don't even adjust for the fact that the Bengals are at home this week and are undefeated at home, playing really well each game. The line is high, though. The Chargers have only lost one game this year by more than a TD, an 8-point loss to Denver. They did lose this very Cincinnati team by a TD, but the Chargers generally have been competitive in their losses. They rarely get beat by a lot mainly because they shorten the games in terms of number of drives so that it is hard to get too far ahead. The line is high, and I would love it if it was -6.5, but I think the Bengals are better, and the time is right for them to finally win a playoff game in the Marvin Lewis era.

Chargers 17  Bengals 28  (CIN -7)

(N5)  San Francisco 49ers  (12-4)   @   (N4)  Green Bay Packers  (8-7-1)

Sun. 4:35  -  FOX  |  San Francisco -2.5

The State of the Teams: Aaron Rodgers is back. That is a good thing because Aaron Rodgers is fun to watch, and it allowed the Packers to win this game, win their division and host a game in the substantially-below-freezing cold. Of course, it also makes looking at the Packers offense really tough since the stats I use don't have it broken down (they do, but again, if its behind a paywall on Outsiders' it's not right for me to use it here). The Packers enter off a great win, but they needed some good fortune (including a very lucky TD off a Rodgers' fumble) to beat a mediocre Bears team. The 49ers enter really strongly. Not only are they playing a team they have beaten three straight times, all in different ways, but they have won 6 straight games and since Michael Crabtree returned their offense has began to resemble the dynamic unit that led them to a Super Bowl appearance last year. Kaepernick still hasn't reached that level, but they no longer are struggling to get to 300 yards on offense anymore.


The Matchup: As I said, it is hard to really break down the Packers offensive DVOA and stuff since half the season they did not have Aaron Rodgers (or Randall Cobb, who is important as well). On the other side, the 49ers didn't have Aldon Smith for 6 games either, so their defensive numbers are depressed. The 49ers didn't have a Top-10 defense by DVOA. They were slightly better against the pass than the run, which helps against Green Bay, but the 49ers defense did well when broken down per drive. They force a lot of punts, are low-end Top-10 in the red zone. The one thing they don't do very well is rush the passer, but the Packers don't protect well either, so those weaknesses are a wash. The other side is more interesting not only because their Outsiders' numbers are more real. The Packers defense is bad, and is now playing without Clay Matthews. There is nothing the Packers defense does above average. Nothing. They are Bottom-5 in most areas. It shows too. They give up a boatload of points, rarely force turnovers, are not great in the red zone. The one area by DVOA that they are decent in is that they rank #10 against 'other WRs' (not #1 or #2), which is pretty useless here since the 49ers rarely use 3-WR sets. The 49ers defense actually grades out well by DVOA (a totally surprising 4th in pass offense - which I thought was a misprint). So much of that is due to playing a ridiculously tough slate of defenses. There's really no good matchup for the Packers defense.


The Pick: So after spending a lot of words saying why this is a terrible matchup, will I do what I did in the Saints-Eagles part and pick the Packers to win? No, I won't. The ridiculous weather even favors a run-first, more physical team like the 49ers. With Lacy, the Packers are more ready to win that type of game, but they don't have the defense for it, and Lacy's hobbled ankle won't feel too good in -15 wind chill. Rodgers looked rusty against Chicago, but this isn't even about Rodgers. That defense is just too bad to win these types of games, or at least pick them to win with any confidence. Aaron Rodgers is a special player, but as we've seen in all three playoff losses in the Rodgers era ('09 to Arizona, '11 to the Giants, '12 to San Francisco), their defense will let them down.

49ers 26   Packers 17  (SF -2.5)

Enjoy the Games!!!

2013 NFL Playoffs: AFC Playoff Primer

6.) San Diego Chargers  (9-7  =  396-348)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 396 ptf (12th), 348 pta (11th), +48 pd (12th), 6,293 ydf (5th), 5,864 yda (23rd)
= Outsiders: +5.8% team (12th), +22.5% off (3rd), +17.5% def (32nd), +0.8% st (15th)


Offense: The Chargers offense is really good. It may not look that way on paper, because none of their volume stats are that amazing. Their yardage total is Top-5, bit they only finished 12th in scoring. Some of this has to do with their average performance in the red zone, but most of it is pace and shortage of drives. The Chargers led the NFL in yards per drive. They led the NFL in fewest 3-and-outs as a percentage of total drives. They just perfected having long, clock-killing drives. Too many of them ended in 3 rather than 7, but shortening the game is an effective strategy for a team looking to hide its inferior defense. Despite having an average O-Line at best, the Chargers had an effective running game. He wasn't great, but Ryan Mathews had the best year of his career running the ball. The real talent, though, of the Chargers was their passing game. 2nd in the league in efficiency, the Chargers were awesome through the air. Philip Rivers did a great Tom Brady circa 2010 impression, utilizing short routes to have an absurdly high completion percentage. He even used Brady's version of Rivers' version of Sproles, in Danny Woodhead, who had a 78-catch year. The Chargers are really good on offense. Rank: 2nd


Defense: It's good that the Chargers are really good on offense, because they are quite bad on defense. I think Football Outsiders is undervaluing them a bit ranking them 32nd on defense. They don't seem that bad. But they really aren't that much better. All the things that they are so good at on offense, they are bad at on defense. They give up the 3rd most yards per drive, and force the 4th fewest three-and-outs. The red zone defense is below average. They just don't have enough capable players outside of Eric Weddle and Corey Liuget. The rest of their secondary is made up of a mix of castoffs and young, unproven mid-round draft picks. The other two levels have no real players of note. They have to rely on scheme to really shut teams down. Scheme and their offense limiting the amount of time the Chargers defense has to spend on the field. That said, they limited the Bengals to 17, the Colts to 9 and the Broncos to a season-low 20. Of course, they just let a Chiefs offense led by Chase Daniel and Kniles Davis to drop 24. Rank: 6th


QB: Philip Rivers, welcome back to the Elite. I predicted Rivers would have a bounce-back season in 2012 after an underratedly solid 2011 season. That didn't happen, as Rivers played worse, looking like an old, prematurely washed-up version of himself. Then, he got some new coaches, got a Sproles-like player back, and a great rookie WR to throw to, and he became the 2nd best QB in the NFL in 2013. Philip Rivers wasn't just good, he was great, and he was great behind an average at best O-Line, and losing his top two receivers from the preseason. First 2012 breakout Dennario Alexander tore his ACL, then Malcolm Floyd suffered a scary back/neck/head injury in Week 2 against Philadelphia. What did Rivers do? Just lead the NFL in completion percentage, and finish 3rd in passer rating (and 2nd if you take away Foles), 2nd in DYAR and DVOA by Football Outsiders. Rank: 2nd


Coach: Mike McCoy's real skill was making an offense led by Tim Tebow into a functional unit. It seems that many people can coordinate for Peyton Manning as McCoy did in 2012, but only one man could for Tebow. McCoy helped Rivers resurrect that career. He was also very aggressive, and used his timeouts well. He has two good coordinators by his side also. It's obviously his first time in the playoffs, but his coordinator led a similar 9-7 team with a ressurected QB to the Super Bowl five years ago. Rank: 4th

 

5.) Kansas City Chiefs  (11-5  =  430-305)

Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 430 ptf (6th), 305 pta (5th), +125 pd (4th), 5,396 ydf (21st), 5,885 yda (24th)
= Outsiders: +17.4% team (7th), +2.8% off (15th), -6.7% def (13th), +7.8% st (1st)


Offense: The Chiefs offense is good. The six-best offenses in the AFC made the playoffs, and the Chiefs are one of those 6. However, to me they are the 2nd-wrst of those 6. Now, I don't think they are the worst offense of all the playoff teams. I think they have a more reliable offense against good competition than San Francisco, but that's probably moot. The Chiefs are a strange team on offense. They punt a lot - 3rd most punts per drive in the NFL. However, whenever they do move the ball, good things happen. They ranked 5th in Red Zone TD%. They rarely turn it over. Alex Smith's aversion to interceptions definitely came with him to Kansas City. They have the 2nd best running back in the NFL, who also provides a dynamic receiving option. They also have a backup running back that provides a dynamic receiving option. They are better than people think at picking up chunk yardage, and Andy Reid can utilize anyone at his disposal. Rank: 5th.


Defense: Lost in the Chiefs offensive explosion late in the season, save for the Colts loss, was the fall of their once-proud defense. They still have a good defense, and a very good pass defense that ranked 7th by DVOA, but their run defense is below average, and that pass rush which had 35 sacks in its first 7 games, on pace for an NFL record of 80, had just 12 in the last 9 games. Some of that is injury, and those guys are back and healthy now, but the real mystery has been the strange mid-season decline of Dontari Poe. Maybe he's never adjusted to being offenses focal point when Hali and Houston were banged up? The NFC actually has the three-best defense in the playoffs, so even with their slow finish to the season, the Chiefs are a good defense in AFC terms. They just aren't nearly as good as they were when they were playing a string of backups. The results got better when they weren't playing Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers, but it is those types of guys that are alive at this point. Rank: 2nd


QB: Alex Smith has started and won playoff games before, which puts him more in the 'playoff winner' category than Andy Dalton or Andrew Luck. Of course, Smith isn't really as good as those players in totality, but has skills that is better than them. He's more careful with the football. He's more accurate than those two. He doesn't have the arm of either, but he can use it well. The problem is the AFC has some good QBs in the playoffs. Smith might not be able to win a game by himself, but he's closer to doing so than people believe: Rank: 6th


Coach: Andy Reid has coached a lot of playoff games, and though he's also lost a lot of playoff games, few are hard to really pin on him. His offenses were disastrous in their losses in 2002 and 2003, but after that all their losses were either close or big losses to Dallas. Reid has also won a lot of playoff games. The defensive coordinator Bob Sutton hasn't looked as good recently, but he's done a good job making a roster with good talent into a very good unit. Rank: 2nd


4.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5  =  391-336)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 391 pta (14th), 336 pta (9th), +55 pd (10th), 5,468 ydf (15th), 5,713 yda (20th)
= Outsiders: +3.4% team (13th), +4.2% off (13th), +0.8% def (16th), -0.1% st (17th)


Offense: The Colts offense really had three periods in this season. The first was before the Wayne injury, when the Colts had a good passing offense that was being limited by a stupid addiction to trying to establish the run. Then was the period right after Wayne's injury, when they had a mediocre passing offense that was being supplemented by a stupid addiction to trying to establish the run. That period had some horrible losses to St. Louis and Arizona. Finally was the final period, when they effectively benched Heyward-Bey and Richardson, and became a good passing offense with an average running game that they weren't addicted to. I have no idea which of the post-Wayne offenses will appear in the playoffs, but even the final version had a hard time scoring more than 25 points against average defenses. Andrew Luck has little to work with right now, and definitely started playing better later in the season, but he still too innacurate and too sturdy in the pocket. The run game has come alive relatively after Richardson's benching, but Brown quieted down in Week 17. The Colts don't have anything more than a nice solid offense that does nothing particularly well aside from never fumble. Rank: 6th 


Defense: The Colts defense has two qualities that are good. First, they have Robert Mathis, who had led the NFL in sacks with 19.5 despite having no one else on the team have more than 5. Mathis was dominant all season long. The Colts also force a lot of fumbles on defense. Other than that, they are decidedly mediocre. They have one corner in Vontae Davis that alternates between great and terrible. Their safety play is very inconsistent. Jerrell Freeman and Cory Redding each had nice season, but are surrounded by people who had average seasons. What is nice for the Colts is they aren't particularly bad at anything, just average at a lot of things. A lot of their success is due to the schemes of Chuck Pagano and Defensive Coordiator John Manusky. Scheme only goes so far though. Rank: 5th.


QB: Andrew Luck definitely was better in his 2nd season, but probably not as much better as people think. The stats on him that really improved were partly due to a scheme change. He threw shorter far more this year than last year in Arians' scheme. That's largely why is Y/A dropped, but his sack rate and int rate improved so much. His completion percentage rise was also due to this. What hurts Luck is the part that isn't explained by this change: why is completion percentage is 60.2%. That isn't good in the modern NFL in any scheme. Too often he throws too high or too late. This should get better over time, but could hurt the Colts chances in 2013. Rank: 5th


Coach: I am in two minds about the Colts coaching staff. On the defensive side, I think the staff does a great job of preparing and scheming that defense. Their stats are better than their talent would indicated. Most of their defensive success apart from Robert Mathis comes from scheme. That said, the offensive side is a mess. Their strange love for Smash-Mouth football despite no evidence they can play that way is maddening. Finally, on the game management side the Colts need improvement. Pagano is way too conservative, something that could kill this team. Rank: 6th


3.) Cincinnati Bengals  (11-5  =  430-305)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 430 ptf (6th), 305 pta (5th), +125 pd (4th), 5,894 ydf (10th), 4,888 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: +14.5% team (9th), +0.5% off (17th), -12.7% def (5th), +1.3% st (12th)


Offense: The Bengals are a more silent version of the Saints and Seahawks, in that they are far better playing at home than on the road. They finished 8-0 at home. Most of their home dominance was defensive (even aiding their point total, as they scored a slew of defensive TDs at home), but some was offensive as well. They put up 49-41-42-42 points in four striaght home games before 34 (27 offensive) against Baltimore in Week 17. The Bengals in a way resemble a better form of last year's Ravens. I said about them before the playoffs that they were a better than good offense in terms of what they could be, and this is the same. Dalton may have 20 interceptions, but most came in a handful of games (10 against Baltimore twice and Miami). AJ Green is still dominant. Marvin Jones solidified himself as a solid #2. They have two TEs that make plays and a slew of other receivers who have pretty defined roles. Their running game isn't great, but is consistent. It rarely gets stuffed and converts short yardage. If Dalton improves going forward, this could be a Top-5-7 offense. For right now, they are a good offense, especially at home. Rank: 4th


Defense: The Bengals have lost their two best defenders for the year with injuries back in midseason. First Leon Hall went down, and in their next game Geno Atkins went down. However, they really haven't fallen off too far since then. Their secondary was the deepest in the NFL before Hall went down, and remains a solid unit that can go 3-5 deep. Their defensive line was deep before Atkins went down and remains with a solid rotation. This year it was Carlos Dunlap and Wallace Gilberry picking up the slack with 15 sacks between them. The linebacker crew is also quite deep, but there was no standout, lost to injury or otherwise. Vincent Rey had a really nice season. Cincinnati's defense is still very good. The led the NFL in Drive Success Rate on defense. They were Top-5 in fewest Yards Allowed, Points Allowed, TDs Allowed per drive, and Top-5 in most punts and three-and-outs force per drive. Their red-zone defense is solidly in the Top-10. Considering the injuries, it is amazing how good the Bengals defense stayed. Rank: 1st


QB: Andy Dalton had 33 TD passes this year. That is good. He had 20 INTs, which is bad. What is the real Dalton? I don't really know. To me, he's a more high-variance version of Joe Flacco. He can be better than Flacco. He can easily win games for you. He can also be worse than Flacco, and throw three or four picks. Now, 10 of his 20 INTs came against his divisional rivals, and in his biggest games he had few picks. Dalton was thoroughly mediocre in DVOA (18th), but that is what happens when you have some awful games and some very good ones. Rank: 4th


Coach: Marvin Lewis rewarded Mike Brown's patience and has turned the Bengals into one of the better-run franchises in the NFL. They have drafted well and developed well over the years. His staff has also done a great job adjusting to injuries and personnel. Jay Gruden's offense has deftly added two rookies to the mix and used the receivers well. The real star, though, is Mike Zimmer, who's defense has survived losing a pro-bowl corner and all-pro tackle, and still been a Top-5 unit. The only fault is Marvin Lewis's terrible use of timeouts (though he is aggresive). Rank: 3rd


2.) New England Patriots  (12-4  =  444-338)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 444 ptf (3rd), 338 pta (10th), +106 pd (8th), 6,152 ydf (7th), 5,969 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: +19.0% team (5th), +16.5% off (4th), +4.1% def (21st), +6.7% st (2nd)


Offense: The Patriots are a different offense without Rob Gronkowski. That much is obvious. How different, though? Well, early in the season they were also missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola for a number of those games and the results were bad. Before Gronkowski's initial return the Patriots were an average offense by DVOA, and Tom Brady had completely below-average stats and had a DVOA below zero. Then, with Gronkowski, they were the highest scoring offense in the NFL in that period. Then Gronk went out again, but the other guys were there, and they were a good but not great offense for four games. The numbers look nice but Brady's numbers without Gronk aren't great in the past three games. The O-line is shuffled but good as always, and the three-headed RB-by-committee has worked. They're nowhere near what they were from 2010-2012, but going into the playoffs, they are better than the 2009 unit for sure. And given how average they were looking early in the season, the Patriots have ended up 3rd in the NFL in scoring, and Top-10 in yards, tds and avoiding-three-and-outs per drive. The one area of concern in red zone efficiency, which is above average with Gronkowski, but well below without him. Rank: 3rd


Defense: The Patriots, like the Bengals, lost their two best players in Wilfork and Mayo. Unlike the Bengals, their defense has slipped. Before the Mayo injury, they were close top Top-10 by DVOA, and they ended 21st. They've entered an interesting place where seemingly they can only defend the run or the pass each week, but rarely both (unless you are Baltimore and can't do either yourself). Take the Broncos win, where they totally played to stop the pass, but couldn't touch the run. Or Carolina, which was the reverse. The pass defense is still aggressive at times, but they're starting to play more zone to hide their big but slow linebackers. What the Patriots do really well is rush the passer. Quietly, they picked up 48 sacks. Now, sacks were way up league-wide, but 48 is still good for 6th. Their defense is really good at stopping 4th downs, which gives them a good overall points per drive despite not being great at keeping teams out of the end zone. Belichick schemes them well, but they have less talent this year than any, even in 2011. Rank: 4th


QB: Tom Brady did not have a good year for his standards, especially in games where Rob Gronkowski did not play. I don't care how much people try to explain thing away, that he had no one to throw to, that he had a bad o-line. Well, Philip Rivers also lost his top two targets from the offseason. Brady barely completed 60 percent of his passes. He had a y/a under 7. He had a QB rating under 90. None of these things are good. Of course, he's still Tom Brady and he was definitely better in the 2nd string of games without Gronk than he was in the 1st. Rank: 3rd


Coach: Bill Belichick and his staff are in that machine phase that the 49ers entered into in the post-Walsh era, when they had future Super Bowl winning coaches running their offense and quality guys running the defense. Now, Belichick's assistants probably aren't that good, but Bill is better than George Seifert. Belichick had some strange moments in terms of game management this year, but that offense and defense is always schemed well. They never get less than the sum of their parts. Rank: 1st


1.) Denver Broncos  (13-3  =  606-399)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 606 ptf (1st), 399 pta (22nd), +207 pd (1st), 7,317 ydf (1st), 5,696 yda (19th)
= Outsiders: +32.8% team (2nd), +33.7% off (1st), -0.2% def (15th), -1.1% st (21st)


Offense: It all begins and ends with Peyton Manning and his band of brothers. The key matchup nightmares really are Knowshon Moreno, who's proven a really capable receiver from the backfield, and Julius Thomas, who was the 2nd best TE in the NFL by DYAR. Or maybe the keys are Decker and Thomas, who were both Top-5 in DYAR for WRs. Or maybe it is Welker, who will be back after missing three games. Or really it is just Manning, who makes this whole thing work. The Broncos are actually not 1st in yards per drive, as that goes to San Diego. But they are first in TDs per drive (by a lot), fewest punts per drive, and best red zone numbers per drive. Despite some notable moments of consecutive three-and-outs, they rank as the 2nd fewest in that category as well. There is a reason this is the highest scoring offense of all time. They may not be the best offense ever, but they have the talent to be that in any one game, especially with all their main weapons back in the fold. Even their running game is good, ranking #10 in DVOA, with Moreno having a solid season, and Montee Ball getting better as the season went on. Rank: 1st


Defense: Last year the Broncos had arguably the best defense in the NFL. Then they went and crapped the bed in their playoff loss, preceded to lose Elvis Dumervil in the offseason, and Von Miller early in Week 16. Their defensive DVOA was actually Top-10 with Miller playing, but there were other guys who were also playing then but not when Miller wasn't, like Chris Harris, Wesley Woodyard, Robert Ayers (who all missed their defensive nadir, the 51-48 win over Dallas). Derek Wolfe is also expected to be back, and Champ Bailey finally seems healthy. The Denver defense has actually been pretty average round the board (which is good enough given their offense) except for one area, which is in the red zone, where they are bottom-10 in the NFL. That has to get better. The easiest way for them to ensure wins is trade 7's from their offense for 3's from the opponent. Rank: 5th


QB: There's really not more that could be said about Peyton's incredible 2013 season. By DVOA, it only comes out 8th in the DVOA era (from 1989), behind his own seasons from 2006 and 2004. However, he held that value over more throws, to have the 2nd best DYAR (behind Brady in 2007 - ahead of Manning in '04). There were three distinct periods in Manning's year. First was his first 8 games, where he was on record pace everywhere. Then, at the end of Game #9, he hurt his ankle and was limited the next three games. Then, the ankle healed up and he was awesome once again. Since the 2nd KC game, his deep ball has looked really good, which is an added bonus over Manning from 2012. Rank: 1st


Coach: The Broncos had to survive losing John Fox for 6 games to a heart procedure, but now that he is back they seem to be playing more disciplined. Fox has been far more aggressive this year in terms of 4th down and late game situations. Del Rio has done a decent job covering up for personnel issues, but too often the receivers are let open. Finally, Manning is the league's best offensive coordinator, so no real problems there. Rank: 5th

2013 NFL Playoffs: NFC Playoff Primer

My playoff primers are back for another year. Same format as last year (and the 2009 Playoffs). Same categories. There was one change, as I removed the 'Top-2 Seed They Can Beat' and 'Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat' part for the bottom four seeds, as they were woefully wrong. Embarrassing really. Anyway, the rest is the same.


One disclaimer: I used a lot of Football Outsiders' statistics, from DVOA and DYAR (for teams, players, units), and a lot of their drive stats. They do amazing work, and would be the first advanced analytics site I would recommend in football.


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6.) New Orleans Saints  (11-5  =  414-304)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 414 ptf (10th), 304 pta (4th), +110 pd (7th), 6,391 ydf (4th), 4,891 yda (4th)
= Outsiders: +19.3% team (4th), +15.9% off (5th), -5.9% def (10th), -2.5% st (24th)


Offense: Who's the best offense in the NFC has a lot to do with where the game is. If the game is in the Superdome, then it is the Saints and no one comes close. Forget the NFC, no one comes close in the NFL. Of course, they won't be playing any home games in these playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Saints are bad. They've had trouble on the road, but on the whole, the unit is still the best in the NFC. Brees had a stellar year, cutting down on his interceptions from 2012, going from 19 to 12. He still will throw it up for grabs, and he was sacked more than normal, but few are better. The o-line was decent in run blocking, with Mark Ingram having his first good year in his three-year career. Obviously, much of their offensive production comes from their two matchup nightmares: Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. Both have dealt with injuries at various times this year, but each are close to uncoverable. The screen game is a large part of the offense, but their effectiveness on screens were far, far better at home. The Saints rarely have drives that end in punts, but they do struggle relatively speaking in the red zone, a problem that manifests itself against the better defense higher up the NFC food chain. Rank: 1st


Defense: All year long I've waited for the Rob Ryan defense to crumble like all his previous defenses did, and it never happened. I have to give him credit, his defense did a wonderful job all year long. They had two notable bad moments, giving up last second drives to both New England and Carolina to lose close games, but that doesn't come close to outweighing all the positives. This version of the Saints defense is really unlike the 2009 version. This one can rush the passer better than all but like three teams in the NFL. Both Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette excelled in Rob Ryan's scheme, posting 12.5 and 12.0 sacks. No one else had even 5, but so many different players chipped in. One thing I notice is that while he's aggressive in the amount of secondary blitzes he calls, he usually covers them behind pretty well. The Saints rush defense is not really good, and they don't create turnovers (a staple of the 2009 unit). One of the strangest drive stats I uncovered was that they lead the NFL in percentage of drives forcing three-and-outs, which is stunning. That's how they end up with the #4 ranking in yards allowed. Trouble could always be brewing in a Rob Ryan defense, but for now it's chugging along nicely. Rank: 3rd


QB: Like always, Drew Brees threw for 5,000 yards. For the third year in a row he broke the previous record of 5,084 yards. He also had 39 TDs, a passer rating of 104.7. Brees was #3 in the NFL in both DYAR and DVOA for full-season QBs. Brees threw shorter more than usual, but some of that is due to his protection, as Brees took more sacks than he ever has before. That all said, he still remains a future Hall of Fame QB playing really well. Rank: 1st


Coach: Sean Payton returned. That's all people care about. They assume everything magically came together again. Of course, the Saints offense was arguably better last year. The only improvement made was a decrease in turnovers. It's the defense that made this team a playoff team this year. Rob Ryan has done a great job being creative in using his personnel. Payton, however, does remain aggressive and smart in time management. Rank: 2nd



5.) San Francisco 49ers  (12-4  =  406-272)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 406 ptf (11th), 272 pta (3rd), +134 pd (3rd), 5,180 ydf (24th), 5,071 yda (5th)
= Outsiders: +17.4% team (6th),+9.1% off (8th), -4.6% def (13th), +3.7% st (7th)


Offense: The 49ers gained more than 400 yards in a game one time this season. That was in Week 1, when Kaepernick threw for 400 yards and it seemed like he would fulfill the wishes of Ron Jaworski. Then, the 49ers became an average offense with multiple-game stretches of awful play. They didn't crack 200 yards in their last two losses (back to back games home to Carolina and at New Orleans). The passing offense definitely improved after the return of Michael Crabtree, but it isn't like they are now a dynamic one. The run game is still excellently designed, allowing Frank Gore to have more production than anyone could have imagined at 30. Vernon Davis had another nice season as well. The 49ers do a couple things really well. The first is a lack of turnovers, something that has been a constant throughout the Jim Harbaugh era. The other is good red zone production, which is in a way surprising giving some of their overall struggles to move the ball. That's where the effective run game comes into play, I guess. The 49ers have shown an ability to dominate bad teams, but they've struggled against any good offense they've played. Rank: 6th


Defense: The 49ers defense, much like their offense, beat up on bad teams. They can swallow up marginal offense easily. Their defesive corp has stayed healthy all season long, and it shows in their simple, but brilliantly effective style. NaVarro Bowman had an awesome year at inside backer, and Patrick Willis remains Patrick Willis. Their pass rush actually didn't drop that much during Aldon Smith's stint in rehab, but it is definitely better having him around than not. The quiet little secret about the 49ers, though, is their average secondary play this year. Losing Dashon Goldson was big, even if Eric Reid has done a nice job at FS. Carlos Rogers had another good year, but the depth didn't play as well as it has in the past. Teams can throw on the 49ers, especially if their pass rush is not pushing the pocket. It still really comes down to the play of Justin Smith. His interior presence makes that pass rush, and consequently, pass defense work. Rank: 4th


QB: Colin Kaepernick has some good strengths. He's pretty careful with the ball, he can throw well on the run, he has the threat to run on any play. There's also some bad weaknesses. He struggles to throw to covered receivers, which is a problem at times with receivers who don't always get separation. He takes off too soon and is slow in his progressions. Kaepernick definitely didn't improve in his 2nd year as a starting QB, but he's still dynamic. Rank: 6th


Coach: The Harbaugh-Roman-Fangio trio has been in place for three years, and has led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record. This is despite having average skill position talent and two starting QBs. Harbaugh's offense will never dominate good defenses, but it is ruthlessly effective. The defense is the same, and Fangio has done a good job scheming pressure instead of just relying on Aldon Smith. Even in game management the Harbaugh Group excels. Rank: 1st


4.) Green Bay Packers  (8-7-1  =  417-428)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 417 ptf (8th), 428 pta (24th), -11 pd (16th), 6,404 ydf (3rd), 5,956 yda (25th)
= Outsiders: -6.2% team (21st), +8.6% off (9th), +14.4% def (31st), -0.4% st (19th)


Offense: It is hard to really judge what the Packers offense is. Obviously, looking at their yearly numbers don't really help because half the season was played by Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzein and Matt Flynn. Rodgers had another stellar season when he was healthy, but he definitely looked a bit rusty last Sunday. The offense as a whole is not as explosive as the Packers were in previous years, largely because James Jones hasn't had the season he normally has, and Randall Cobb missed a bunch of games. Cobb too is back now, and he definitely looked fully healthy against Chicago. The run game was a big story all year long for Green Bay. They finished the year with the 3rd best rushing DVOA in the NFL. The o-line, despite injuries, had its best year in a while in pass protection too. It is hard to really judge this, but the Packers offense, while not as good as it was in 2011-12, is still a top unit. Rank: 3rd


Defense: Hiding behind the near fall of the Packers due to backup QBs was their defense which hasn't played well all season long. DVOA put them as the 2nd worst defense in the NFL, and unlike the Chargers, that translated into giving up a boatload of points. The Packers do nothing particularly well other than cause fumbles (which they had a hard time of recovering). The Pass Defense in the Capers era has alternated between strong, terrible but takeaway prone, and just terrible, with its nadir coming this year. The pass defense numbers were worse in 2011, but at least that season they had a habit of intercepting a ball or two a game. That hasn't happened this year at all. The Packers secondary has really never recovered from losing Nick Collins years ago. The pass rush struggled with Clay Matthews out, and now he's out again. AJ Hawk had a nice year as a blitzing inside-backer, and Mike Daniels had a breakout season as well. None of these people resemble a healthy Clay Matthews, though. The Packers have a good offense, and they'll need it. Sadly, it seems more and more like the Packers will basically do what the Manning era Colts did, combine a great offense and an awesome QB with a terrible defense. Rank: 6th 


QB: Aaron Rodgers is very good. That much is obvious. He ended up 10th in DVOA despite missing half the year. If he held that value over 16 games, he would have been 4th in the league. He still takes too many sacks, and he tries to fit balls into tight windows more than he should, but as a rare QB who has the zip to make most of those throws, it works a lot of the time. He was rusty on Sunday, and was definitely looking less to run with the threat of a repeat injury. Still, he's about as good as any QB in the NFL. Rank: 2nd


Coach: Mike McCarthy has become a controversial figure because of his inability to use timeouts, challenges and good 4th down judgement. Of course, he's also a great playcaller, capable of utilizing all of the receivers in distinct, effective ways. That part in the end is more important. On the other side, Dom Capers hasn't been able to show that adaptive nature, as his defense fails miserably when top-end talent leaves or gets injured. Rank: 5th

Interesting Note:


3.) Philadelphia Eagles  (10-6  =  442-382)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 442 ptf (4th), 382 pta (17th), +60 pd (9th), 6,6706 ydf (2nd), 6,307 yda (29th)
= Outsiders: +15.1% team (8th), +22.9% off (2nd), +5.0% def (23rd), -2.8% st (25th)


Offense: No offense in the NFL had a more volatile season than the Eagles. They were first dominant after their first game, then high-powered but ultra-turnover prone in their three game losing streak. Then, after Vick went down, they were at first terrible, getting just 3 points on offense in a two-game losing streak that put them at 3-5. Of course, Nick Foles healed up from a concussion the next week and then started playing out of his mind. The offensive design is nice. It works. Not in the same way it worked at Oregon, but the pace and the run blocking scheme is awesome. Foles is what made it work, though. The drive stats actually show some holes in the Eagles offense, like average red zone production, and being merely 8th in yards per drive. But they rarely punt, and rarely turn it over with Foles. Chances are Nick Foles isn't the Greatest QB Ever and his INT% with regress towards something closer to the mean, but he is incredibly safe with the ball. What the Eagles really have is that run game, though. Top ranked by DVOA, the Eagles run game was stellar even when the QB was Michael Vick. Shady McCoy elevated his game when Vick left and the threat of a QB run went down. If there is any major weakness of the Eagles offense it is Nick Foles propensity to take sacks. But a sack is better than a pick everytime. Rank: 2nd


Defense: The Eagles defense started out pathetic, and while it improved the improved made them merely bad. Their strengths are defined, with the 12th ranked rush defense by DVOA. They force a lot of turnovers, ranking in the Top-10 in both interceptions and fumbles forced per drive. The biggest issue with the Eagles defense is their inability to get off the field. They are among the bottom five in least three and outs forced and least punts forced. Some of this could be explained by having the quickest offense in the NFL, making the Eagles have to be on the field a long time. This could hurt them as their offensive ability gets less pronounced in shorter games, much like the one against Dallas last Sunday. The Eagles have one top edge rusher in Trent Cole, but after him is a mix of players that pitched in 3-5 sacks. Mychal Kendricks is among them, but his overall pass rush was quite poor. The corners get penalized a lot, and can give up completions, but rarely give up big plays and do make a lot themselves. Overall, the Eagles won't win any game because of their defense, but at least the defense is making it so the offense doesn't have to put up 30+ to win a game. Rank: 5th


QB: Nicholas L. Foles himself didn't start out so hot. His third game against Dallas was putrid, going 11-29. Of course, he then continued his ways and didn't throw an interception until a game in a blizzard. Foles low pick number is an abberation, as guys like Damon Huard in 2005, or David Garrard in 2007 proved. However, when you watch him he rarely throws into coverage and risks interception. His one fault is a lack of pocket awareness, and that could be a major problem given the pass rush prowess of many of the NFC playoff teams. Rank: 4th


Coach: Chipolas Kelly seems like a much better coach with Nick Foles than he did with Michael Vick. Strange how that works, huh? In honesty, the real great part about his offense is the play design on run calls. The run game that the Eagles use is the best in the league. Kelly has proven to be aggressive at the right times as well. A solid coach. I was wrong about him, I'll admit. Of course, the coaching staffs in the NFC are loaded with playoff experience, so it is hard to rate the Eagles to highly here. Rank: 6th 


2.) Carolina Panthers  (12-4  =  366-241)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 366 ptf (18th), 241 pta (2nd), +125 pd (4th), 5,069 ydf (26th), 4,820 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: +24.9% team (3rd), +8.1% off (10th), -15.7% def (3rd), +1.0% st (13th)


Offense: The Panthers do have problems moving the ball at times, especially without Steve Smith on the field. I'm judging them on the idea Smith plays in the Divisional Round, which of course could easily not happen. He's such a key member of that offense though. The run game still rules Carolina. They ranked #4 in rush DVOA, and that is not all on Cam Newton, as he ranked just 6th for QBs in rushing DYAR (and 23rd in DVOA), but both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert had nice seasons. They rarely get stuffed, are great at picking up short yardage and extending drives, two important things given how their offense doesn't get consistency in the pass game. The receivers aren't necessarily bad, but just don't have any special qualities. Lafell is their most consistent wideout outside of Smith, but his lack of top end speed makes him easy to take away. The Panthers rely often on Greg Olsen, which is fine since Olsen is really good. The Panthers are good in the red zone and don't turn the ball over too much, two great strengths in the playoffs, especially since the Seahawks have a defense that does both of those things well. Rank: 4th


Defense: The Panthers defense has been special for most of the year. If they have a weakness, it is one everyone knows. Their secondary is not great, which is purely a personnel issue. Drayton Florence, for his age, had a good year in the secondary, and Captain Munnerlyn has done well adjusting to playing more outside, but if they don't get home in their pass rush, they can be thrown on. Well, luckily for the Panthers they have the best pass rush in the NFL. They became the first team since the 2006 Chargers (62) and Ravens (61) to have 60 or more sacks. Hardy and Johnson have 26 of those, but the other 34 are spread out ridiculously well. The most anyone else has is 4. They just get pressure from everywhere and blitz exceedingly well. Credit Ron Rivera's scheme for that, using both Mike Mitchell and Quintin Mikell as blitzers very effectively. They are top-3 in both takeaways and red zone defense, and force more field goals for every TD than any team in the NFL. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the playoffs. They also have linebackers who can cover TEs, which is great in a conference where three NFC playoff teams use their TEs a lot (San Fran, New Orleans, Seattle), and they are amazing on screens. Oh, and they employ Luke Kuechly. Rank: 2nd


QB: Cam Newton still has to work on his accuracy issues, but he was stronger in the pocket this year. He didn't run quite as quickly, and used his Roethlisberger frame to stay upright and have some great escapes. He combines the size of Big Ben with the athleticism of Russell Wilson, which is absolutely terrifying. I really think he would have very good conventional numbers with a better cast of wideouts, but that is hopefully what future drafts will help prove. Rank: 5th


Coach: I really marvel at the job Ron Rivera has done in Carolina. He took over a team where their first year they had the worst defense in the NFL. By year two, they were a good defense. By year three, they are a great one, and they still have pieces to add in the secondary. What merits greater mention is Rivera's change in attitude towards 4th down, and it's worked spectacularly for them. I still don't trust Mike Shula, though. Rank: 4th


1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3  =  417-231)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 417 ptf (8th), 231 pta (1st), +186 pd (2nd), 5,424 ydf (17th), 4,378 yda (1st)
= Outsiders: +40.1% team (1st), +9.4% off (7th), -25.8% def (1st), +4.8% st (5th)


Offense: The run game remains the identity of the Seahawks, and for good reason. One of just three teams to run more than they passed, the Seahawks were able to get another solid season from Marshawn Lynch. He wasn't as good as some people believed, but Lynch rarely gets stuffed and gets every bit of yards his o-line gives him. Wilson doesn't have to throw too much, but he's accurate, can throw on the run, and uses every bit of separation his receivers give him. His connection with Golden Tate improved in bounds this year to the point that Tate is now very underrated. Doug Baldwin also had a nice year, and Jermaine Kearse did well picking up the slack after Sidney Rice went down for they year. The O-Line has had some very public problems, especially in their loss to Arizona and near loss to St. Louis. Wilson took 44 sacks this season, and given his dropbacks that is a giant amount. Some of it is on Wilson, but a lot is on that o-line, which hasn't really improved protection since their starters came back. In the end, the Seahawks offense does nothing great, but everything well enough to make it hard to hold them under 20. Rank: 5th


Defense: The Seahawks defense wasn't just good, they were exceptional. Their DVOA comes in as the 7th best since 1991. They were the 4th best pass defense in that period. Now, a lot of people criticize the Seahawks for getting away with a lot of holding and illegal contact, and that is probably true, but they are also just exceptional at coverage. No one better than Richard Sherman, who had another 8 interceptions this year, but even Thurmond and Maxwell, who have played more with Browner suspended, have played great. They also have the best Free Safety in the NFL. The pass rush plays a part, and while they are league average in sacks, they get pressure consistently. The Seahawks are #1 in points allowed per drive, turnovers forced per drive, interceptions per drive, and by far the best red zone defense in the league. There is nothing they do even below average and few things they do less than good. I haven't delved into this part of Football Outsiders' defense stats yet, but I feel like it is appropriate with Seattle. They rank no lower than 7th in DVOA defending #1 receivers, #2 recievers, all other wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Not much else really needs to be said. Rank: 1st


QB: Russell Wilson may seem better this year, but he actually had the same season. Like almost literally the same. He completed five more passes this year than lost, on 14 more attempts. He had 26 TDs each year, and had one fewer interception this season. He did throw for 200 more yards, but he also took 11 more sacks. Even rushing, he was charted with two more runs this year than last. Wilson is really good, but he can be contained, especially if you can cover deep. Rank: 3rd


Coach: Pete Carroll's third go around in the NFL has gone better than anyone could have imagined. His young team is receptive to his rah-rah style, and Carroll has proven again that he's a much smarter football mind than anyone gave him credit for. Darrell Bevell's offense has done good work with Wilson. One criticism is Carroll's game management isn't the best I've seen, but that doesn't change the fact that few teams are more prepared or motivated. Rank: 3rd