NFL 2013: Week 7 Power Rankings & The Rest

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Giants (+8)  over  BEARS  (CORRECT  =  1-0)
CHIEFS (-8)  over  Raiders  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
BUCCANEERS (+2.5)  over  Eagles  (WRONG  =  2-1)
Lions (-3)  over  BROWNS  (CORRECT  =  3-1)
Panthers (+2.5)  over  VIKINGS  (CORRECT  =  4-1)
TEXANS (-8)  over  Rams  (WRONG  =  4-2)
RAVENS (+3.5)  over  Packers  (CORRECT  =  5-2)
Bengals (-6)  over  BILLS  (WRONG  =  5-3)
JETS (-1)  over  Steelers  (WRONG  =  5-4)
Titans (+13.5)  over  SEAHAWKS  (CORRECT  =  6-4)
Jaguars (+26.5)  over  BRONCOS  (CORRECT  =  7-4)
Cardinals (+10.5)  over  49ERS  (WRONG  =  7-5)
Saints (+1)  over  PATRIOTS  (WRONG  =  7-6)
COWBOYS (-6)  over  Redskins  (CORRECT  =  8-6)
CHARGERS (+2.5)  over  Colts  (CORRECT  =  9-6)

Week 6: 9-6

Year-to-Date: 51-41


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-6  =  70-198)

Still a terrible team, but they made a game effort on Sunday, playing the Manning offense better than anyone has this year. Strange this oddly close games against the Jaguars followed Peyton to Denver with him, just like losing excruciating playoff games. Anyway, Chad Henne makes that offense so much better than Blaine Gabbert does, same with getting Justin Blackmon back in the fold. Also, I loved the way Gus Bradley played the game, with a fake punt and a 4th down attempt early in their own territory. Have to play that way when you are the massively less talented team, but so few ever do.


31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (0-5  =  64-101)

Mike Glennon is OK, but I think that team has about given up by now. The one positive abut the Buccaneers was their defense, and it was terrible. The Eagles have a good offense, but it shouldn't have been that good against the Buccaneers. If the defense gives up, the offense won't be far behind, and the coach's head will fall pretty quickly. It is amazing how many teams can make such bad coaching hires time and time again. Firing Jon Gruden after they went from 9-3 to 9-7 back in 2008 seems a little short-sighted now.


30.) Minnesota Vikings  (1-4  =  125-158)

Well, Matt Cassel is Matt Cassel. Maybe Josh Freeman can do better, but the season people keep bringing up regarding Freeman's potential potential is his 2010 season. Guess who else had a really good 2010 season? Matt Cassel. I'm with Christian Ponder here. I'm not sure why he was so quickly thrown out as the loser in this battle, so much so they went out and got someone else. Seems like a huge lack of belief in someone that the current regime picked #12 overall just three years ago.


29.) New York Giants  (0-6  =  103-209)

Another game, another loss. The Giants finally played decently well on defense, keeping them in that game a lot longer than they should have, but the offense just can't make enough plays. I don't really know what the problem is. The receivers are healthy, the O-Line was good enough, Eli is just off and they don't have enough possessions to toss away three with turnovers. The Giants have no real shot at a division title, but they should at least try to hold onto some respect and not send Tom Coughlin away with a 3-13 type season.


28.) Washington Redskins  (1-4  =  107-143)

The defense actually played rather well on Sunday against on offense that was coming off of a 48-point game. They got pressure on Romo, covered well. Did everything they didn't do in their 0-3 start. Of course, the offense still can't get anything going outside of a few Alfred Morris runs in the game. RGIII still can't throw well with his knee, and it might stay that way until 2014. As someone who thought RGIII was overhyped as a rookie, even I am sad that it may be a while before we see the real RGIII agan.


27.) Oakland Raiders  (2-4  =  105-132)

The Raiders hung tough for a half, but many teams have with Kansas City this year. Terrelle Pryor played his first really good pass defense and looked unsurprisingly lost, taking way too many sacks and forcing too many throws. Still, he held his composure, blamed himself for everything after the game, and vowed to get better. I still think the Raiders have a keeper in Pryor and their defense is far, far better than I, and let's be honest, anyone else, expected.


26.) Atlanta Falcons  (1-4  =  122-134)

This might be low, but why do the Falcons deserve to be any higher right now? They are so aggressively injured it is comical. The injuries in New England and Green Bay will get more play because those are better teams that will have to deal with them through January, but the Falcons have it worse. Julio? Gone. Sam Baker? Gone. Sean Weatherspoon? Gone. Asante Samuel? Hobbled. They are starting rookies everywhere, and not in the good way. Matt Ryan alone keeps this team in games, but they haven't close them out. Yes, they could easily be 4-1 right now, but their future in 2013 is far from bright even had that been their record.


25.) Houston Texans  (2-4  =  106-177)

Every year there is a team that starts out slow, losing some catastrophic game, and then collapses in on itself, and I wonder if the collapse would have happened had they just won those early games. My go-to example is the 2010 Vikings, who blew a bunch of winnable games early, and then collapsed into total mediocrity. The 2010 Texans did the same thing. The 2013 Texans may be the poster-child, though. They were 2-1 at one point, and leading the 3-0 Seahawks 20-6. If Matt Schaub doesn't throw the Pikc-6 to Sherman, they probably win that game, go to 3-1, and I seriously doubt they get blown the eff out in back-to-back weeks if that happens. Now, Schaub may have crossed the point of no return in Houston, and Gary Kubiak is on a majorly hot seat.


24.) St. Louis Rams  (3-3  =  141-154)

The Rams might be the most non-descript, random closer to .500 team for the 2nd straight year. Last year, they were a tie away from 8-8. This year, despite having awful performances in all three of their losses, they have a win over another .500 team, and drubbed Houston in Houston (and beat the Jags by 14). Sam Bradford is redifining what it means to quietly put up good numbers, with a 13-3 TD-INT ratio. They are still a year or two away from doing anything real, but the Rams aren't the mess they were against Dallas and San Francisco. They probably aren't the juggernaut they appeared to be against Houston either.


23.) Buffalo Bills  (2-4  =  136-157)

The Bills have played four home games so far. One was a last-second loss to New England, another a last-second win over Carolina, another a three-point win over Baltimore, and most recently there was an OT loss to Cincinnati after a stirring comeback by the Bills. Basically, the Bills are this years most exciting bad team, with all their home-games being close to must-see TV. They are basically this years' version of the 2011 Cardinals or last year's Lions.


22.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (1-4  =  88-116)

Am I crazy or can they make a run? I probably am crazy, but 9 wins might get that 2nd Wild Card (I think the loser in the Denver/KC AFC West race gets the #5 seed), and a 8-3 finish isn't crazy. They have a few really tough games left, like trips to Baltimore, New England and Green Bay, but if they even win one of those, the rest of the schedule is manageable. It won't happen, but there is enough talent on offense that they won't disappear like the Giants are in the process of doing.


21.) Cleveland Browns  (3-3  =  118-125)

Speaking of AFC North teams that won't disappear, I don't like the Browns chances of being one of those. Brandon Weeden is just not an NFL caliber QB right now (or ever, given that Weeden is already 30). Their offense had a nice run with Hoyer, but even that I thought wouldn't last. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games, but they just don't have enough offensive weapons. I can easily see them falling to a 5-11 season in the end.


20.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-3  =  166-179)

I might be overrating them, but with Dallas' injuries coming into their showdown in Philly, the Eagles could very easily be in sole possession of 1st place come next Monday. Nick Foles seems fine in that offense, and McCoy's running hasn't slowed nearly as much as I expected it to. Their defense will still fare badly against anyone not named 'Hobbled RGIII', 'Eli 'Picks' Manning" or "Mike Glennon", but they might be able to win enough shootouts to steal that division. Once again, they could be the first team to make the playoffs with a rookie head coach off of a 4-12 season to still be underwhelming.


19.) Tennessee Titans  (3-3  =  128-115)

I feel so bad watching them play so incredibly hard on offense, so stout on defense at each level, but be saddled with Ryan Fitzpatrick and not Jake Locker. The injury to Locker in the end doesn't seem to be as serious as initially feared, which is great. Watching him reminded me so much of Steve McNair in his prime, with his scrambling, his ability to extend plays, his unconventional, imperfect throwing motion. All of it. This was a prime Fisher-era team, and it could all be ruined because of one hard hit in a blowout win.


18.) Arizona Cardinals  (3-3  =  111-127)

The Cardinals defense continues to play really well, confusing Kaepernick just like Seattle did. In a way, they are so much the same team as they were without John Skelton the 2011 version. Palmer is good enough to make their offense better with a higher potential, but so turnover prone that they turn it over more than that Cardinals vintage. This Andre Ellington is a nice little player, shifty back that works well in Bruce Arians offense. Quick look ahead for the Cardinals, here's their upcoming schedule: vs.SEA, vs.ATL, BYE, vs.HOU, @JAX, vs.IND, @PHI, vs.STL, @TEN. That all comes before finishing @SEA, vs.SF. That middle chunk of eight games, they could go 6-2. I'm not saying they will, but they can steal that #6 seed if GB struggles with its injury issues.


17.) New York Jets  (3-3  =  104-135)

Huge game this weekend for the Jets, although in a one-week horizon not as big as it would have been had they beaten Pittsburgh. A win closes the gap between them and New England to just one game. The Jets can't afford to lose games to beatable teams like last week. They can't have these emotional lapses. Many people are comparing the Jets to the 2009 version, and while that team had a far better defense (even considering that this is a good defense, that one was a lot better), but unless they get lucky in Week 16-17 of teams laying down, 2009 Jets performance won't be good enough. They need to be the 2010 Jets instead. Of course, being the 2010 Jets doesn't mean losing your 2nd New England game 45-3.


16.) Dallas Cowboys  (3-3  =  183-152)

I feel bad for Romo. He's having his best season of his career, but his team is more injured than ever. Losing Ware hurts, because he had transitioned well to the 4-3 and he's never missed a game. I have no idea how the defense adjusts with him out, and Kiffin's scheme is predicated on getting pressure with 4. Also, it would be nice if Miles Austin returns to being a capable NFL player. I mean what the hell happened to him. Random fact: in the infamous Romo bobbled hold game, Miles Austin, then wearing #15, returned a kick for a TD to give the Cowboys a 17-13 lead. This was a good three years before he would do anything in the NFL.


15.) Miami Dolphins  (3-2 =  117-114)

The Dolphins had a quiet bye and while they don't get New England falling back to the ranks of the twice-beaten, they do get New England to get even more injured. Their season really starts two Sundays from now, when they go to Foxboro, with the return meeting coming in December in Miami. That's their real test up front, getting to play New England for the first time, possibly at 4-2. Just take care of Buffalo at home. That is all. Let's do it, Ryan!


14.) Baltimore Ravens  (3-3 =  134-129)

My favorite stat gets better by the week. The Ravens have allowed 0, 0, 2, 1 and 1 touchdowns on defense in their last five games. They allowed 7 the week before that. Their defensive performance in Week 1 is becoming more and more of an anomaly. Sadly for the Ravens, their offensive performance in January 2013 is seeming like more and more of an even bigger anomaly. The run game has disappeared, the O-Line has regressed to regular season 2012 levels, and the WR corp is too injured to bail them out. Their defense will keep them in the hunt, but unless Flacco wants to start earning that money he's being paid, they won't come close to repeating.


13.) Carolina Panthers  (2-3  =  109-68)

Sure, they're under .500, but they've dominated in their two wins, and could easily be 4-1 if they didn't fumble late in Week 1 driving for the game-winning TD, and didn't somehow blow a late 6-point lead to Buffalo in Week 2. The Panthers have a tough schedule left, but made easier with Atlanta's problems. I still think they can also make a run, but with San Francisco seemingly righting itself, and GBs easy schedule in the coming weeks, there might be just one Wild Card spot up for grabs.


12.) San Diego Chargers  (3-3  =  144-138)

Big win for the Chargers, who showed some life in their running game and more importantly on defense. They didn't get too much pressure on Luck, but covered exceedingly well. The biggest problem for the Chargers is that they still have all four games against Denver and Kansas City left, and if they go 1-3 in those games, that gives them 6 losses right there. 9-7 might get the #7 seed, but San Diego would do wonders for themselves to either sweep KC or get a win over Denver. Philip Rivers continues to play amazing, given the lack of weapons. People are giving Brady all sorts of credit, but Rivers situation is just as bad and he's playing way better. If Rivers had the defense Brady has, they're 5-1.


11) Chicago Bears  (4-2  =  172-161)

I'm really not sure what to think of the Bears. They keep getting turnovers, but in between plays when they get turnovers, their defense has regressed tremendously from 2012. The offense looks good, and Alshon Jeffery has gotten so much better in his third season, but I always have the feeling that Cutler is a few bad games away from imploding. They're in a tough division, and have a tough late schedule. I hate to see it happen again, but I can see the Bears getting off to a 8-4 type start and falling off the playoff pace at the end of the season. Credit to Marc Trestman, though, for keeping what made the Bears very good on defense and doing what he was brought into do: make the offense more efficient.


10.) Cincinnati Bengals  (4-2  =  121-111)

When the Bengals were cruising and about to kick a field goal to make it 27-10, I was pretty happy that the Cincinnati I expect to see compete for that #2 seed, the Cincinnati that beat Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at home, was finally showing itself on the road. Of course, a crazy turn of events on that field goal and many other bad plays after, the Bengals had to pull out an OT win. Andy Dalton had a nice game, and Marvin Jones is turning into a solid accessory outside of AJ Green. Their defense has to travel better, though. They have to find the energy that the fans in 'The Jungle' gives them.


9.) Green Bay Packers  (3-2  =  137-114)

The Packers won two straight games scoring 22 and 19 points. These are not the old Packers. Aaron Rodgers stats are still really nice, but outside his incredible Week 2 game against Washington, his numbers haven't been the greatest. What has really helped the Packers is their run game. For years, McCarthy tried to run it too much when they weren't getting anything. Now, they are running for 100+ each week. It helps that AJ Hawk has one of his best games of his career. With Clay Matthews and now Nick Perry out, they'll need those bit players in the Front 7 to continue to play really well.


8.) San Francisco 49ers  (4-2  =  145-118)

As much as we shouldn't think of the 49ers as the team that lost two games by a combined 56-10, they also aren't the team that won back-to-back games at 69-14. The 49ers are somewhere in between, a good team that has the potential to be great. Colin Kaepernick's accuracy is still incredibly average. I never thought he was nearly as good a 'thrower' as the media made him out to be, and so far I'm being vindicated in that regard. The defense continues to amaze me in its play without Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, but we saw holes in that pass defense for the first time against Arizona.


7.) Indianapolis Colts  (4-2  =  148-98)

This Sunday may or may not be a teachable moment, but last Monday definitely was. The Colts played flat, played lazy and played like they were thinking of the game to come more than the task at hand. They look just bad. They didn't look overmatched, but out-of-sync. The defense continues to play really well in the red zone, but barely any of their blitzes landed, and they were so iffy in backing those blitzes up with any kind of good coverage. The Colts also still think they should be a run-first team, and they just can't waste away the talents of Luck/Wayne/Hilton/Heyward-Bey/Fleener by running Trent Richardson and Donald Brown for 4.0 yards a carry. That doesn't win in 2013.


6.) New England Patriots  (5-1  =  125-97)

Full credit to the New England defense, who stiffened twice following terrible attempts at two-minute drives by Brady. The offense was masterful on that final drive, with one of the most accurate mid-range passes I have ever seen by Tom. That was great. The run game was good, and for a while the offense seemed in sync, but they still can't push it downfield, the receivers still drop a ton of passes, and when the Saints decided to actually run the ball in the second half they did so quite easily. The news that Jerod Mayo is missing the rest of the season is also a bad sign for them. That division is still winnable, and they would still be my pick for the Team Most Likely To Knock Off Denver, but I think they aren't nearly as good as a 5-1 team.


5.) Detroit Lions  (4-2  =  162-140)

They overcame a 10-point halftime deficit, shutting out their opponent and winning by 14 with Calvin Johnson playing at 50%. That was impressive. Matthew Stafford is having, to me, the best year of his career and Reggie Bush is such a great fit for that offense. The defense is still not getting as many sacks as I would like, but they are getting consistent pressure and are so much more sound in the secondary than they were in any of the last few years. They have a massive game coming up against another good 4-2 team, but after that the schedule gets noticeably easier.


4.) New Orleans Saints  (5-1  =  161-103)

I'm not dropping them much after that loss, mainly because they easily could have won, and winning a road game in New England is not easy. I would hope, for them, that Jimmy Graham can play after the bye, because without Graham, that offense really doesn't have too many game-breakers outside of Sproles and of course, Brees. It will be interesting to see if other teams follow Belichick's lead to press-cover Graham with a good corner. The defense continues to play well, but they are starting to have to manufacture pressure to get to QBs, which is never a good sign.


3.) Kansas City Chiefs  (6-0  =  152-65)

They're a great team, the 2011 49ers with the same QB and a fatter coach. They also have a ridiculously easy schedule outside of the Denver games. To me, they have only three tough road games left, and their two hardest out-of-division games are at home (IND, HOU). The Chiefs won't go 16-0 because their margin for error just isn't close to Denver, or some of the other teams that made runs at perfection. In many ways, they could be the 2008 Titans, who started 10-0 before losing two of their next four games to non-playoff teams. That team did end up with the #1 seed, but they might not be able to drop two games and win the division this year.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  (5-1  =  157-94)

Sure, it was Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the defense was fantastic, limiting the Titans to nothing all day. The only reason that was a game was whatever the hell happened at the end of the half with the clock management and field goal unit. The Seahawks schedule gets tougher, starting this Thursday with a trip to always dramatic Arizona, but the Seahawks need to keep focus with San Francisco back on the winning path. Russell Wilson had his most accurate game in weeks, ending any potential concerns over his throwing this year. The team is still loaded, but I still worry if their offense is good enough long term.


1.) Denver Broncos  (6-0  =  265-158)

The Broncos turned the ball over three times, including an interception that was returned for a TD and a fumble at the 4 yard line, and still won by 16. They had a bad game. They had all the lazy, lackadaisical, looking-ahead problems that Indianapolis had, but they won by 16. Now, the Jaguars are terrible, but the Broncos 'D' game is a 16 point win. I have some worries about that offense falling in love with the dink and dunk like it did at times last year. Go deep more. Manning has the arm this year (cue the 52-yard strike to Decker against Philly). Expand that playbook.


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) Denver Broncos  =  15-1
2.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  12-4
3.) New England Patriots  =  12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  10-6
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  12-4
6.) San Diego Chargers  =  9-7


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  =  13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4
3.) Detroit Lions  =  11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  9-7
5.) San Francsico 49ers  =  11-5
6.) Green Bay Packers  =  10-6


Looking Forward to Next Weeks Games

Byes: Oakland (2-4); New Orleans (5-1)


15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (1-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
14.) San Diego Chargers (3-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "No Matter Where This Game is Played There is a 50% Chance of a Blackout" Sunday, as we get three of the flightiest fanbases (Tampa, San Diego, Jacksonville), and two of the league's un-unbeatens. San Diego should have a nice easy win for once, and Atlanta may get a win, which would be huge for their confidence in Game 1 A.J.J.


13.) St. Louis Rams (3-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (2-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Cleveland Browns (3-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (3-2)  (4:25 - CBS)
11.) Houston Texans (2-4)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)  (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Chicago Bears (4-2)  @  Washington Redskins (1-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-4)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "This Week has a Lot of Crap" Sunday, as really? All five of these games? Rams @ Panthers can be somewhat intriguing, but I think the Rams get pounded. Same with Cleveland, Houston and Buffalo, all teams that haven't travelled well at all going to good to very good teams. The Bears and Redskins just seems like a bad game that many people will end up getting in their area because it reads like a nice matchup with two big markets, but it won't be.


8.) Minnesota Vikings (1-4)  @  New York Giants (0-6)  (MNF - ESPN)
7.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "I Don't Know What These Two have in Common Other Than Mediocrity" Sunday, as ESPN is saddled with two teams a combined 1-10. The only intrigue there is if Giants fans will set the record for loudest boo if Manning throws an early pick. The 49ers and Titans would have been a really nice game to watch, and I would have been psyched that Philly's FOX station is showing it, had Jake Locker been healthy. The Titans will play hard anyway, and I doubt they get blown out, but it seems inevitable that San Francisco will pull that one out.


6.) Baltimore Ravens (3-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)  (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (3-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Divisional Rivalries Make Average Games Good" Sunday, as we get two Divisional games that will probably get National billing on FOX early and CBS late (the Ravens @ Steelers game is the main doubleheader late game). Cowboys @ Eagles is actually for 1st place in the division, which makes it the least fun game for 1st Place since the Rams and Seahawks met in Week 17 of 2010. The Ravens/Steelers games stopped being fun last year with Roethlisberger missed both of them, but with the Ravens milling around .500 and the Steelers doing Steeler-y things last week the game might at least be fun to watch. God knows there's little else with the other late games.


4.) New England Patriots (5-1)  @  New York Jets (3-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Seattle Seahawks (5-1)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-3)  (TNF - NFLN)

I call it "Divisional Rivalries Make Good Games Great" Sunday, as these two games would be fun regardless of Divisional ties. Obviously, the Patriots/Jets matchup always gets heated, and with the Patriots wounded and the Jets reeling off of last week's loss, both have a lot to play for. The Jets can win this game without needing the Pats to play terribly, but I don't know if they can do it. The Cardinals are great hosts in these night games (MNF game against SF last year excluded) and the crowd should be great. A rare fun TNF game.


2.) Denver Broncos (6-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (4-2)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "The Day No One Ever Expected or Wanted" Sunday, as Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis as a visitor for the first time. It's been 18 months since Peyton Manning was cut, and I still can't believe it has happened. It has been 32 months since Peyton Manning played a game as a Colt and I can remember it like yesterday. This would be a more meaningful game, and definitely #1, if the Colts won yesterday, but I think the chances of a Denver blowout is very much on the table.


1.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)  @  Detroit Lions (4-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Sometimes the Best Games are Hard to Find" Sunday, as I'm sure outside of the Cincinnati and Detroit regions, very few people will get this game broadcasted to them. These are two good teams, currently leading their divisions, that are built similarly. The Lions have a better offense, the Bengals have a better defense, but they are both built off of potentially dominant front fours, and one great receiver outside and a shifty back inside. Similar teams, both 4-2. The winner gets to stay on top of their division, the loser goes back to the pack. I really hope this is as good of a game as it can be.

NFL 2013: Week 6 Picks

Year-to-Date: 42-35


New York Giants (0-5)  @  Chicago Bears (3-2)  (CHI -8)

Just because I have picked the Giants to cover four times, and gone 0-4, the Giants have me remembering my epic streak last year, when I picked the Redskins to lose each of their last seven games. Of course, they won those seven games. Then, I picked them to cover against the Seahawks, and they lost. So, I'm not dumb enough to leave the Giants yet.

Giants 17  Bears 23  (NYG +8)


Oakland Raiders (2-3)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)  (KC -8)

The Raiders are one of the bigger surprises of the season considering how people viewed them heading in. Most people saw the Raiders are basically the equivalent of the Jaguars, a team totally bereft of talent. What people didn't see was Terrelle Pryor being a completely legitimate, effective NFL QB. Of course, he hasn't really played the best of defenses. Now he does, as Pryor gets the best pass defense in the NFL. I have to think he is far less effective in this game than any other so far this season. Also, with Darren McFadden out, they won't really be able to take advantage of a relatively weak run defense. The Chiefs offense should be able to make enough plays against the Raiders to cover this line. I can't believe this, but I think the Chiefs go to 6-0.

Raiders 13  Chiefs 24  (KC -8)


Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)  (PHI -2.5)

Nick Foles vs. Mike Glennon. Honestly, this is almost as intriguing as Mike Vick vs. Josh Freeman would have been. Of course, I wouldn't want to watch either version. The Buccaneers defense has been good all year and does match up well. The Bucs have a pretty great rush defense, and Foles might struggle if McCoy is bottled up. Honestly, I like the Buccaneers from a matchup perspective, but I don't like that team at all. They've all but quit on Schiano, and are now in the midst of another controversy with a third member of the team developing a Staph infection. Still, go with my head. I always should.

Eagles 17  Buccaneers 20  (TB +2.5)


Detroit Lions (3-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (3-2)  (DET -3)

The Lions may or may not have Calvin Johnson, and I'm holding off on this until I know.


Carolina Panthers (1-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-3)  (MIN -2.5)

The Vikings are starting Matt Cassel again. That may have worked against the Steelers, but the Panthers defense is a level or two above the Steelers defense (there's words I never expected to write). The Panthers can get all sorts of pressure on Cassel and shut down Peterson from running (as they've done to basically everyone all year long). The Vikings did have 17 days to prepare for this, but I just think the Panthers are a better team, record and rest be damned. The fact that they are getting points from the Vikings makes this a pretty simple wager from my side.

Panthers 23  Vikings 13 (CAR +2.5)


St. Louis Rams (2-3)  @  Houston Texans (2-3)  (HOU -8)

The Rams, the NFL's worst 2-3 team, gets to go to Houston and play the league's most embattled QB. What I would love to bet on is Matt Schaub's pick-six streak ending. There have been studies showing that the length of interception returns are essentially random. No player is more or less likely to throw a pick-six, yet Schaub's have been comical at times. The Rams defense can't really stop the run, which should allow for both Arian Foster and Ben Tate to have good games. I believe Andre Johnson is going to play as well, which should help the Texans offense get back. The line is high for a team that has been a disaster in recent weeks, but let's not forget that the Texans outplayed the Seahawks, badly, for about 50 minutes at home just two weeks ago.

Rams 16  Texans 27  (HOU -8)


Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)  @  Buffalo Bills (2-3)  (CIN -6)

Bengals defense vs. Thad Lewis? I'll take my chances with the better team with the far better matchup with a line below a TD.

Bengals 24  Bills 16  (CIN -6)


Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4)  @  New York Jets (3-2)  (PIT -1)

This is a weird line. It opened at Steelers -2.5, which made no sense, and while the public has pounded the Jets since, dropping it a point-and-a-half, the Steelers, who are 0-4 and last seen losing to winless Minnesota, are favorites against a Jets team that is 3-2 and a few plays away from being 4-1. The Jets just played a bad team with a great QB on Monday and beat them. That was on the road. I guess statistics to show that teams off of their byes do well, but I can't see the Steelers winning this game. The Jets are even a safe pick as a number since they're underdogs, which again makes no sense.

Steelers 16  Jets 23  (NYJ -1)


Tennessee Titans (3-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (4-1)  (SEA -13.5)

The Titans may be starting a backup QB, but they are starting their starters on defense, and that defense is good. They held the Chiefs at bay until the end. I don't expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to do too well in Seattle, but I think this Titans defense can contain the Seattle offense. If the Seahawks don't get to 30, then covering this line will be tough. I don't think the Seahawks get to 30, as there are reports that Marshawn Lynch will play, but will likely be gimpy with a hamstring pull. I think the Titans score just enough and play just enough defense to cover.

Titans 16  Seahawks 27  (TEN +13.5)


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)  @  Denver Broncos (5-0)  (DEN -26.5)

There's no real point in analyzing this game. The Broncos are almost assuredly going to win. Peyton Manning likely will not play all four quarters. That becomes important because I can so easily see a case where the Jags are down 28-30 points and score a TD late to cut in under the number. There is so little historical precedent. Most games that had lines above 20 were decades ago, and those teams usually covered. The most recent example of these lines was the good ol' 2007 Patriots, who would have covered many 20 point spreads, but by the time Vegas started giving them lines this high they had cooled off and didn't cover any of them. I just can't bet on a team to win by this much. It seems unwise.

Jaguars 17  Broncos 41  (JAX +26.5)


Arizona Cardinals (3-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-2)  (SF -10.5)

The Cardinals are probably the most under-the-radar 3-2 team in the NFL. They have a relatively easy schedule at this point, and I honestly could see them making a random wild card push. All of this basically means that I think this line is too high. The 49ers have been great over the past two weeks, but the Cardinals offer different challenges, from both a familiarity perspective and a defensive perspective. I don't know how the Cardinals will score enough, but I don't think the 49ers defense is as good as the Panthers, for instance. I'm going with my head and saying that this line is way too high. Of course, I felt the same way when the Cardinals went to New Orleans, and was wrong then.

Cardinals 17  49ers 23  (ARZ +10.5)


New Orleans Saints (5-0)  @  New England Patriots (4-1)  (NE -1)

Fun game here, with the Patriots defense getting their next biggest test, and probably second biggest all year outside of when Denver comes to town in six weeks. The Saints offense is starting to really click after having turnover and protection issues the first few weeks. Jimmy Graham is close to unstoppable. The Patriots offense will most likely be without Gronk, and I can see Brady struggling against Rob Ryan's defense since he normally has (witness his average performance in a 20-16 win over Dallas in 2011). It's odd being slightly confident the Patriots are going to lose. The last time I was confident probably was last year in Baltimore in Week 3, and of course the Ravens won, but by one point. I think it will be more than one point, but even if it is, the Patriots are favored so it won't matter.

Saints 30  Patriots 20  (NO +1)


Washington Redskins (1-3)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-3)  (DAL -6)

The line is probably right, if not too low, but I think Washington will be game. I saw RGIII finally playing free and confident against Oakland, and with a week off that might even get better this game. The Redskins defense has played the Cowboys well over the past few years. The Cowboys offense can't possibly play better than it did last week. Of course, it probably will. I have no idea what to do here. This is the pick I am least confident over, so I'm really just taking a shot in the dark.

Redskins 23  Cowboys 31  (DAL -6)


Indianapolis Colts (4-1)  @  San Diego Chargers (2-3)  (IND -2.5)

What a good game. The Chargers are better than a 2-3 team, with losing two games each by three points and one on a Hail Mary. This is by far the best traditional passer the Colts have faced, and while the Colts have done well defending the pass, I can see Philip Rivers having a big game. Rivers plays better at home, and he has the weapons to attack this Colts defense, especially Danny Woodhead, who I can see having a big game against an overly-aggressive Colts defensive front. The Colts can score points, but they just don't. Their offense is efficient, but at the end they rarely score over 30. I just don't see them clicking fully in this game, both an emotional letdown from last week's stirring win over Seattle and next week's impending showdown with Manning. Tough spot for them, and I think the Chargers steal it.

Colts 24  Chargers 27  (SD +2.5)

Enjoy the Games!!

Oh No, the Reaction to Romo

Tony Romo played the best game of his life. I don't care about the interception. I don't care that he was efficient and sans interception in his lone playoff win against the Eagles in 2009. That game in the playoffs, despite it 'mattering more' and being a 'more clutch performance' wasn't close to as good as this one. This game was incredible. Romo was 7-11 on downfield throws, which is unheard of. He played toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning and nearly beat Manning, and this being not any Peyton Manning, but Peyton "Destroyer of Worlds" Manning. Tony Romo played the best game of his life, and very few people seem to care, because he lost. Sports is amazing, that game was amazing, and Tony Romo's performance was amazing, but the analysis surrounding the game becomes worse and worse.

I wrote back in January after the Broncos lost that heartbreaking playoff game to Baltimore that it astounded me that while sports analysis is by-and-large a lot smarter are more analytical today than it ever has been, but when discussing QBs in the NFL, that love of advanced analysis and numbers is pushed aside for the same tropes that were developed in the 40's and should have been left behind in the 70's. Rings are not what defines a QB. Not being able to score more than 48 points in a game and losing because your defense is totally overwhelmed is not what defines a QB. Anecdotal evidence to fullfill some narrative is not what defines a QB. They are what defines Peyton Manning in the eyes of many, but at least everyone readily accepts that Peyton Manning is a Top-5 QB of All Time, and Peyton has his one ring. Tony Romo doesn't, Tony Romo will most likely not get to the Hall of Fame, and because of this, he has it even worse.

It really all goes back to that bobbled snap. Tony Romo at that point was one of the most beloved QBs in the NFL. He started for the Cowboys when they were 3-3 that year, replacing Drew Bledsoe, and much like the other guy who is famous for replacing Drew Bledsoe, he started out playing great. Romo did have a bad end to the 2006 regular season, but no one really cared about that. He did catch some flak for having four turnovers in Week 17 in a loss against the 3-13 Detroit Lions. A win there would have given the Cowboys the NFC East title (and the #3 seed), but instead they got the #5 seed and a trip to Seattle. At that point Romo was viewed as one of the most exciting players in the NFL. Little did Tony know that 60 minutes of game time later, the way people would view his career would be irrevocably changed forever.

Where it all started, on a fateful January night in Seattle

A bobbled snap. Forget the fact that Tony Romo didn't really play that well all game anyway, but if he gets a snap down, either the Cowboys win 23-21, or the Seahawks drive down the field in the remaining ~1:30 and retake the lead and win. Either way, Romo is viewed exactly like he was before the game, and he has a clutch drive, though one that didn't end up winning the game. Had they won, chances are they would have lost to Chicago the next week, and just say they lose a routine game to Chicago (something like their loss to Minnesota in 2009 following the only playoff win of Romo's career) the way people view him isn't really changed. After the bobbled snap happened, that is how people started to view Romo, as a sad choker lying down on the ground, hands in his face, while the Seahawks celebrated around him.

That image has never escaped Romo, that memory has never escaped Romo. Sure, Tony has had some other high profile failures in big moments. He did not play well in his Divisional Round loss to the Giants in 2007 (oddly, a failure that has been forgotten over the years, despite him throwing a game ending interception as time expired). He has three times been on the losing side of Week 17 games that would have given the Cowboys a playoff spot. Twice his team was blown out (44-6 to the Eagles in 2008 and 31-14 to the Giants in 2011), and the other time Romo threw two 4th-Quarter interceptions. Yes, these are bad games, but ask yourself? How did they get there in the first place?

The 2008 Cowboys are different. They, as a team, choked away that season. Take their Week 16 game that year against Baltimore, in the last game in Texas Stadium. Romo drove the Cowboys for a TD  to cut the Ravens lead to 19-17, and the Cowboys gave up a 77-yard TD on the first play. Romo then drove the Cowboys again to make it 26-24, and the Cowboys gave up an 81-yard TD on the first play. This happened. Not only did the Cowboys not give Romo the ball back, but they allowed long TD runs on the first play both times. If they won that game, the Week 17 game against the Eagles becomes meaningless.

In 2011, Tony Romo played another amazing game in their Week 14 tilt against the Giants. Both teams were 7-7 entering that game. Like he did last Sunday, Romo had a passer rating above 140. They lost because Eli Manning was basically as good, and Jason Pierre-Paul bloked a potential game-tying field goal. Tony Romo is the only player ever to lose a game with at least 300 yards and a passer rating above 140. He has a record of 1-2 in such games. The rest of the NFL history has a record of 159-0-3. In 2012, Tony Romo had five 4th-Quarter comebacks in the middle of that season to even make the Week 17 game meaningful. He had great games in Cincinnati, against Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Philadelphia. All of those comebacks. He played great for a long stretch of that season, and all everyone wants to focus on is his last throw.

Reinforcing the Narrative: Romo's three picks against Washington in Week 17

There is a bad selection bias fallacy in the way people view clutch QBs. Tony Romo is only viewed as unclutch because he has failed to win in those high leverage situations. Of course, just to make those high leverage situations possible, Romo had to play great previously. The 2011-12 Cowboys were not all that talented. The Cowboys stopped being an underachieving talented team in 2010. The past two years they were an aging, top-heavy team, and Romo played well enough to get them to playoff contention. The same thing happens with Peyton in the playoffs. Yes, he has a 9-11 record, but that means he's made the playoffs 12 times in 14 seasons. You can't lose a playoff game if you don't get there. Take Eli Manning, that 8-3 playoff record is nice, but he's missed the playoffs four times and soon to be five in his 10 seasons. Drew Brees has made the playoffs just 5 times in 11 seasons (he'll make it 6 out of 12 this year). You can't lose a playoff game when you don't get there. In Romo's case, you can't make a bad mistake in a do-or-die game unless you won a bunch of games before that.

Is choking real? Maybe. Psychologically speaking, it probably is. One of the common rejections to the 'Player X is a Choker' theory is that most athletes who are chokers, who fail under pressure, who can't come up in the clutch are most likely weeded out in high school, college, minor leagues, etc. The ones that make it all the way to the pros are mentally tough enough that they wouldn't choke. I believe this, but I also think players can put too much pressure on themselves. I saw Peyton Manning do this when he threw 11 interceptions in a three week span in 2010. I think Romo does this to. Sure, it is a failing, but it is a small one compared to so many other QBs who's failings are so much larger.

I absolutely think Tony Romo can win a Super Bowl. I absolutely don't think he can with the Cowboys the way they are currently built. Is he enough to drag an average team to a great record like Peyton, or Brady/Brees/Rodgers? No, but could he have taken the Ravens over the past five years to a Super Bowl win? I'm sure he could have. Tony Romo does not deserve the reputation he has gotten. Sure, he has earned it with his mistakes, but he's also earned the reputation of a great QB, one who can make any throw, who is incredibly elusive in the pocket, who can read defenses, and throws a pretty downfield ball. He earned all those other labels as well. No one wants to give them to him because they love to focus on the 3% of his game where he makes mistakes. That is unfair when people did it (and continue to do so) to Peyton Manning, and it is still unfair now. Tony Romo is a great QB. One interception after throwing for 500 yards and 5 TDs and leading an offense that scored 48 points doesn't change that.

NFL 2013: Week 6 Power Rankings and The Rest

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

BROWNS (-3.5)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  1-0)

Chiefs (-3)  over  TITANS  (CORRECT  =  2-0)Jaguars (+11.5)  over  RAMS  (WRONG  =  2-1)
GIANTS (-2.5)  over  Eagles  (WRONG  =  2-2)

Ravens (+3.5)  over  DOLPHINS  (CORRECT  =  3-2)

COLTS (+3)  over  Seahawks  (CORRECT  =  4-2)

PACKERS (-7.5)  over  Lions  (CORRECT  =  5-2)

BEARS (+1.5)  over  Saints  (WRONG  =  5-3)

BENGALS (+2)  over  Patriots  (CORRECT  =  6-3)

Panthers (-2.5)  over  CARDINALS  (WRONG  =  6-4)

Broncos (-9)  over  COWBOYS  (WRONG  =  6-5)

Texans (+6)  over  49ERS  (WRONG  =  6-6)

Chargers (-5)  over  RAIDERS  (WRONG  =  6-7)

Jets (+10)  over  FALCONS  (CORRECT  =  7-7)

Year-to-Date: 42-35

Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-5  =  51-163)

Another week, another loss ATS. Honestly, them being 11 point underdogs in St. Louis is just as bad as them being 28 point underdogs in Denver. Both show just how terrible this Jaguars team is in every way. But alas, Jaguars fans, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Lions went 0-16 in 2008 and were in the playoffs three years later (and I think they get back this year as well). They just have to get a QB next year and hope they can draft well with their other high picks. That has been their, and any team that goes through a prolonged period of shitty play, problem the past few years.

31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (0-4  =  44-70)

Tampa cleaned a lot of their mess up over their bye week by ridding themselves of Josh Freeman, but he was absolutely not the problem. The whole organization is. Mark Dominek did a nice enough job drafting to make this team not horrible on defense, but I don't think Mike Glennon is any better of a long term option than Freeman was. The only way to fix Tampa to me is to get rid of Schiano.

30.) New York Giants  (0-5  =  82-182)

I keep trying to forget the fact that I picked them to go 12-4 and make the Super Bowl. It probably will never work. Can't unpick that mess....

29.) Washington Redskins  (1-3  =  91-112)

The Redskins, unbelievably, could be in first place in the division with a win in Dallas and a Philadelphia loss. They can actually win that division AND be a massive disappointment this season. This Redskins team is bad on defense, has an average offense with the possibility to graduate into 'good' if they get good consistent play from RGIII. That can be good enough to win the division. I don't think it eventually will be, but it is at least going to make the rest of the season interesting for Redskins fans.

28.) St. Louis Rams  (2-3  =  103-141)

Congratulations, Rams, you can cover double digit spreads. But honestly, that loss says a lot more about the Jaguars and their never-ending ability to suck terribly than it does the Rams. Sam Bradford made some nice plays, but was still a little inaccurate. Saw a shocking stat posted during one of their brief Red Zone appearances that the average age of the Rams roster in 25.7. That is either going to be a great thing if the players develop, and the Rams can dominate the 2016 season, or it could be terrible. I have no idea which way it goes long term.

27.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (0-4  =  69-110)

The Steelers haven't played in a while, and in their case I think getting the early bye helps Pittsburgh. They have a suddenly tough game coming up in New Jersey against the Jets. Ryan Clark pulled an Antrel Rolle today and said he thinks the Steelers have a chance at the playoffs. He's probably going to be as wrong as Rolle, but it starts in this game. The division is still somewhat reachable. Not really, but I don't want another one of my preseason picks being horribly, horribly wrong.

26.) Minnesota Vikings  (1-3  =  115-123)

With Josh Freeman signed along, they have now cornered the market on the unlikeliest 10-game winning QBs from 2010-2012, with Freeman and Matt Cassel both going 10-6 with their teams in 2010, and Christian Ponder pulling the trick last year. So, with three guys with this type of pedigree, does that add up to even one competent QB? Probably not. The Vikings really need that defense to start playing at its 2012 level to get anywhere this season.

25.) Buffalo Bills  (2-3  =  112-130)

The Bills losing EJ Manuel will really hurt the Bills for the next few months. Maybe Thad Lewis can run that offense, but he doesn't have nearly the passing talent of EJ Manuel. The running backs are perenially hurt. Their defense is also banged up in the secondary. Their D-Line is still very good, and they aren't the type of team that will get blown out a lot, but that still makes the Bills what they have been for the past decade.

24.) Oakland Raiders  (2-3  =  98-108)

I think one of the more underreported stories of the 2013 season is how much Terrelly Pryor has progressed this season. He was completely average in his brief appearances late in 2012, but this year he has looked good in the pocket, like a more fluid less giraffe-like Colin Kaepernick when he takes off and runs, and has played well behind a totally suspect line. The Raiders defense-by-committee has also worked better than expected.

23.) Philadlephia Eagles  (2-3  =  135-159)

If the Eagles win on Sunday, they can get back to .500, and stay tied for 1st place in the division. Just like I said in the Redskins section, the Eagles have a chance to both make the playoffs and be disappointing. I have one concern with the Eagles if Nick Foles has to start more than 1-2 games? How will losing him affect the rest of the Eagles run game. As we've seen in the past, Michael Vick can definitely positively impact the rest of the run game. We've already seen the run game kind of fall apart without Vick in the 2nd half of that past game.

22.) Atlanta Falcons  (1-4  =  122-134)

I had the Falcons a bit higher until I learned of the potentially season-ending injury to Julio Jones. With Roddy White hampered all year, Julio Jones has been the only explosive outside target for Matt Ryan to throw to, and if he's gone, that passing offense might fall well below the level necessary to win games with the defense they have. They showed a nice composure to come back and take the lead in that game, but that defense is just way too inexperienced and young to stop teams. 

21.) Cleveland Browns  (3-2  =  101-94)

So, with Brian Hoyer gone for the year, the responsibility here falls back on Brandon Weeden. Ol' 31-year-old Sophomore played well against Buffalo, but I feel with teams having film on Weeden and weeks to prepare, he won't be close to as effective in the future weeks. The Browns defense is still quite good, but as the Buccaneers have shown, you can only stomach losing games 17-13 for so long before everything cracks.

20.) Houston Texans  (2-3  =  93-139)

The Texans defense has actually played well this year. JJ Watt is still amazing. I think I finally have to admit that the problem is Matt Schaub and/or that offense. Somewhere in the middle of last year that offense stopped working. Andre Johnson has lost some explosiveness with a nagging injury which hurts, and now with Owen Daniels out 1-2 months, that offense could really struggle. The Texans aren't out of it yet in the division, but they're 0-2 to the Colts 2-0 against the two great NFC West teams. That isn't a great way to start.

19.) Carolina Panthers  (1-3  =  74-58)

That was just a terrible performance. I still think they can make a late Wild-Card run, but with two of their last four games against the Saints, they might be playing a better team still trying to lock up a seed late in the season. That offense is just so slow in their passing plays right now. What seemed like such a revolutionary, versatile offense two years ago when Cam was a rookie looks so old and tired now. A good defense can't even save them.

18.) Miami Dolphins  (3-2  =  114-117)

That 3-0 start seemed like forever ago. They have two wins against teams that are currently over .500, including giving the Colts their only loss of the season but that was a bad performance. The only reason they were in the game was because of a terrible Flacco interception and a once-in-a-year pass from Tannehill on 4th down late to extend that ultimately failed drive. The Dolphins didn't lose ground in the division, but with their games against New England coming quite a while later, they need to do more than keep pace. They need to pass them.

17.) San Diego Chargers  (2-3  =  125-129)

The Chargers had to play both the 2nd Game of the doubleheader to start the season and the Late-Late game, and they are 0-2 in those games. So, in games at normal times, they are 2-1, with that loss being the hail mary loss to the Titans. I would hate for that Hail Mary loss to knock them out of a playoff spot. Huge MNF game coming up against the Colts. Good opportunity to right the ship and beat a potential playoff competitor.

16.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-3  =  152-136)

That was about as good of a loss as you can have. They went toe-to-toe with the Broncos. They didn't blink when Manning scored the TD after halftime to go up 35-20. Not only did they not blink, they struck back harder going on a 28-6 run. Tony Romo's interception should not ruin the memory of an incredible performance by Romo and that offense. The defense, though, is quite terrible. Rob Ryan may have done a better job with that Cowboys personnel than I thought.

15.) Tennessee Titans  (3-2  =  115-95)

Ryan Fitzpatrick did not look good in his first full start, but it was against the best pass defense in the NFL. Chris Johnson had a weird game, with another one of his patented 1.7 yards per rush, but a 49-yard weaving TD reception on a checkdown. How do both of those two things happen in the same game. The Titans defense played well also, and that will keep them in most games. The season isn't done yet, but chances are they'll be 3-4 after having to play the two NFC West monsters the next two weeks.

14.) New York Jets  (3-2  =  98-116)

That was a solid performance by the Jets on Monday Night. Geno Smith looked really good last night, smart, confident and decisive. He made good throws with great ball placement. That second TD to Cumberland was a thing of beauty. I honestly think he's shown way more than Mark Sanchez ever did. The one quibble I have with the Jets dramatic MNF win is how soft their defense was late in the 4th Quarter. I'm surprised Rex Ryan would go so vanilla after going up 27-14. He let Matt Ryan so easily prance down the field to cut it to six. That has to change against better teams.

13.) Chicago Bears  (3-2  =  145-140)

What a weird game. The Bears ended up with a really nice statistical game, including going for 8.0 yards-per-attempt. Jay Cutler didn't make any mistakes except for the sack-fumble on a blindside blitz. He didn't have an interception, and Alshon Jeffery showed all of the promise he had when he was drafted by the Bears in 2011. The defense did a great job limiting YAC, but for the first time I really thought they missed Brian Urlacher, seeing Jimmy Graham just roam free down the field.

12.) Arizona Cardinals  (3-2  =  91-95)

This might be high, but I think they've beaten one good team (Detroit), one average team (Carolina) and one bad team (Tampa). They're still dynamite defensively on the dome. I haven't seen a faster defense in a dome in a long, long time. Patrick Peterson continues to rise up to that Darrelle Revis zone, and their pass rush looked so much more complete with Daryl Washington back. Sure, Carson Palmer has played really badly, but they've had some tough defenses to go against in their first five games. Here's a nice little random prediction: they beat either San Francisco or Seattle in Arizona.

11.) Baltimore Ravens  (3-2  =  117-110)

The Ravens have given up just 61 points in their four games since they were Manning-ed in Week 1, correcting most of the problems mainly be just getting to the QB instead of being half a step slow against Peyton Manning. Terrell Suggs has been awesome this year, as has Daryl Smith - who was a really nice under-the-radar Free Agent signing this year. The Ravens offense also had a nice game until that terrible pick-six. This is a big game coming up against the Packers, a real opportunity to give a statement that they are back after they shat themselves in the last big game they played.

10.) Detroit Lions  (3-2  =  131-123)

Tough loss for the Lions, who's defense played well for 2/3rds of that game. In the end, their offense just couldn't do enough without either Johnson or Burleson, and the defense was on the field too much. Stafford had a decent game, but I was surprised how hurried he looked in the pocket. I guess most of his hot reads or 'Throw it to Calvin.' The defense did a good job save for one busted coverage on the Jones TD. They have a shot at that division, but they better win that Thanksgiving game against the Packers.

9.) New England Patriots  (4-1  =  95-70)

Rob Gronkowski is coming back, but I think it is a stretch to say they are going to even approach what they were in 2012 with Gronkowski coming back. Wilfork being out didn't matter too much in that game against Cincinnati's mediocre offense, but it could have been uglier if Dalton didn't throw that terrible pick. The Saints are another good test for the Patriots new and improved defense. They did a great job in the red zone against Atlanta, but the Saints are a different animal when they click.

8.) Green Bay Packers  (2-2  =  118-97)

The Packers once again showed an inability to be as explosive against the Lions defense, but once again showed an ability to make the 1-2 key plays to win the game. This time it was Rodgers immediately noticed the busted coverage on the James Jones TD. Stunning development this season is the consistent good play of the Packers run game. I don't know if it is people always putting 6 in the box to stop the pass, but they've done a great job of running it well.

7.) San Francisco 49ers  (3-2  =  113-98)

The 49ers were outscored 10-56 in two losses, then outscored their opponent 69-14 in two wins. Interesting little stretch for the 49ers. That loss to the Colts looks better by the week, but their win over the Texans may look worse by the end of the season. The 49ers have an incredibly soft schedule here on out, but I think there are problems with that team. Mainly, what has happened to Colin Kaepernick's throwing? He was so good in Week 1, but hasn't looked nearly the same since. I realize that he has no one to throw to, but that can't be an excuse forever.

6.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-2  =  94-87)

What a three-week stretch. They beat the Packers, lose to the Browns and Brian Hoyer, and then beat the Patriots. Their defense has been so good at home, but they need to take that same dominance on the road with them. Andy Dalton didn't look all that great, and his pocket presence hasn't improved at all, but he can make some great throws. That throw on 3rd and 15 backed up on their own two was a strike, one of the best, high-leverage throw of the season.

5.) Indianapolis Colts  (4-1  =  139-79)

The Colts played their two toughest non-Peyton games of the year the past three weeks, and won them both. That is incredible. The win over the Seahawks was more impressive, in that way. They didn't get nervous down 12-0. They took their time, and made their plays. Their pass defense has improved so much since last season, and a lot of it starts with their pass rush. Robert Mathis has been unreal, with 9.5 sacks through five games. He can't keep that pace up, but I never expected this from Mathis in his first year post-Freeney.

4.) Seattle Seahawks  (4-1  =  137-81)

I debated how far to drop the Seahawks, but at the end of the day, they weren't going 16-0, and we have evidence they struggle at 10AM, and when you give up a fluke play like a blocked-field-goal-TD, sometimes you just have to tip your hat and call them your daddy. Russell Wilson is still incredibly elusive, and that defense can play really well, but they can't afford to have more of these slow starts. They have enough of them that they might not be able to nab that #1 seed. With the alternative maybe a game in the Superdome, they better get it fixed.

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  (5-0  =  128-58)

The Chiefs showed something by how they reacted to falling down 17-13. The Chiefs buttoned up and dominated the remainder of that game. Their defense might have had their least impressive game of the season, but when least impressive is holding Fitzpatrick to 21-41 with 1 TD and 2 INTs, that is a really good pass defense. The offense continues to do just enough, and with a light schedule, they really could enter that first game against Denver in Week 11 at 9-0.

2.) New Orleans Saints  (5-0  =  134-73)

It's 2009 all over again. The Saints running roughshod over the NFC and the Peyton Manning-led team doing it in the AFC. The Saints defense had their worst game of the season, but they got enough pressure to still hold Chicago to 18 points. Drew Brees struggled at times to get consistent yards, and they ran way too many plays on 3rd down short of the sticks. However, these are all minor problems, little issues that the best team in the NFC needs to figure out.

1.) Denver Broncos  (5-0  =  230-139)

Am I worried about their defense? Sure, but I'll really worry if when they get Von Miller, Champ Bailey, and the three guys that were injured during the Cowboys game (Woodyard, Ayers, Harris) back. That defense is still talented, and I think their performance against the Cowboys will be their nadir. Of course, they gave u 48 points and still won. That offense is just so incredible right now. I literally have never seen anything like it.

Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) Denver Broncos  (15-1)

2.) Cincinnati Bengals  (12-4)
3.) New England Patriots  (12-4)

4.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5)

5.) Kansas City Chiefs  (11-5)

6.) San Diego Chargers  (10-6)

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints  (13-3)

2.) Seattle Seahawks  (13-3)

3.) Detroit Lions  (11-5)

4.) Dallas Cowboys  (9-7)

5.) San Francisco 49ers  (12-4)

6.) Green Bay Packers  (10-6)

Looking Ahead to Next Weeks Games

Byes: Atlanta (1-4), Miami (3-2)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)  @  Denver Broncos (5-0)  (4:05 - CBS)

14.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)  @  Buffalo Bills (2-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) St. Louis Rams (2-3)  @  Houston Texans (2-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Carolina Panthers (1-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Tennessee Titans (3-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (4-1)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Why Can't All Sundays be like Last Sunday" Sunday, as the good slate of games from last week have been replaced by these ornate piles of shitty games. The worst game actually has an intriguing storyline: can the Broncos cover the 28 point spread. The others are just mixes of bad teams playing bad teams (Panthers @ Vikings/Rams @ Texans), bad QB play (outside of Manning and Russell Wilson, the best QB in this area is Andy Dalton) combined with tons of backups QBs and lackluster receiving options.

9.) New York Giants (0-5)  @  Chicago Bears (3-2)  (TNF - NFLN)

8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4)  @  New York Jets (3-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "New York Going in Opposite Directions" Sunday (and Thursday), as the Giants try to get their first win and the Jets try to avoid giving the Steelers theirs. This is a big game for the Jets, as with a win they have a chance to at worst tie New England for 1st in the division next Sunday. The Giants, with a win, can potentially be just 1 game behind 1st place when Sunday ends, which is just absurd. The Bears will try to avoid a three game losing streak after a three-game winning streak to start the season. Interesting stuff here.

7.) Oakland Raiders (2-3)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Arizona Cardinals (3-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-2)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Divisional Games Might Not be that Easy" Sunday, as the Raiders and Cardinals travel to two of the best 2nd place teams in football (I guess the Chiefs are technically in 1st place, but whatever). The Raiders don't really match up well with Kansas City, but watching Terrelly Pryor is pretty fun these days. The Cardinals defense matches up well with anyone, and it will be interesting to see if the 49ers offense can really get back on track.

5.) Detroit Lions (3-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Can Calvin Johnson Please Come Back" Sunday, for obvious reasons. Winner goes to 4-2. Cleveland can continue their amazing turnaround, or the Lions can get back on the winning path with a tough game in Cincinnati coming up.

4.) Washington Redskins (1-3)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Bad NFC East, Pt. 3" Sunday, as this is the third of hopefully not too many more NFC East games on primetime. There's actually just one more scheduled intra-NFC East game on primetime, a SNF game in Week 14 between the Giants and Redskins. That could be flexed out, but I feel very confident some NFC East game will be flexed in at some point.

3.) Green Bay Packers (2-2)  @  Baltimore Ravens (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Show Me Sunday", as the Packers and Ravens both have something to prove. The Packers are 0-2 on the road so far, with their defense looking terrible in one road loss and with their offense looking average in the other. The Ravens have been quite good since their Week 1 massacre that Denver put on them, and are historically great at home. Should be a fun matchup, the only good one in a terrible early slate.

2.) Indianapolis Colts (4-1)  @  San Diego Chargers (2-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Welcome to the Big Time, Andrew" Sunday, as Andrew Luck gets his first chance on Monday Night Football. Philip Rivers has been great at home, and this is a game they need to win, while the Colts aren't in such a desperate situation. Andrew Luck also gets to do something Peyton Manning famously was unable to do too many times and beat San Diego. This used to a nice rivalry, and it would be great to start it up again.

1.) New Orleans Saints (5-0)  @  New England Patriots (4-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Potentially Great Game of the Week" Sunday, as this game could make up for the drek that is the 1PM slot. Saints get another good test outdoors, the Patriots get another good test for their revamped defense. Tom Brady gets Rob Gronkowski back, as we get a matchup of the best two TEs in teh game. A nice game that could really go any way. Fun stuff.

NFL 2013: Week 5 Picks

Last Week: 8-7

Year-to-Date: 35-28


Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-2)  (CLE -3.5)

I think the Bills are a better team and have a brighter immediate future. The Browns may end the season with a better record because the AFC East is better than the AFC North (that's a sentence I haven't written since 2002), and I do give them a slight advantage here. Sometimes, when you are already playing well, getting a home primetime game just is that easy. The Browns are in a perfect spot to take the lead in the AFC North, and with both of the other 2-2 teams in the division playing better AFC East opponents, there is a legitimate chance they have sole possession of 1st in the division after the weekend. Anyway, as for this game, I like this Browns defense, and I think it takes a few more weeks before the league finds out ho to stop Brian Hoyer cold.

Bills 20  Browns 24  (CLE -3.5)


Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-1)  (KC -3)

This game would have been a lot more fun if Jake Locker was not injured. This is somewhat hard to believe, but the Titans haven't turned the ball over yet. The Chiefs have forced 12. Something has to give here and I think the side that does is the one started Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans have a really tough schedule coming up with both the Seahawks and 49ers before their Week 8 bye, so they lost Locker at the worst time. I guess I could see some 'rallying around Fitzpatrick' but that never really works with Fitzpatrick in the past. If the Chiefs are this years version of the 2011 49ers, they don't drop this type of game. They take care of the ball, play sound defense, score a TD or two, hit some field goals, and go home with a nice, unassuming victory.

Chiefs 23  Titans 13  (KC -3)


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)  @  St. Louis Rams (1-3)  (STL -11.5)

This is probably a bigger sign of how historically bad the Jaguars are than them being 30 point underdogs next week in Denver. They are 11.5 point underdogs to a team that is not only 1-3, but lost their last two games 18-66. Every trend in the book points to the Jaguars being the right pick here. Not only do double digit underdogs generally cover, but there is no way a team as bad as St. Louis should be 11.5 point favorites ever. Also, even if St. Louis wins comfortably, their style isn't conducive to winning by such margins. Sure, the Jaguars are, without any exaggeration, historically bad (Football Outsiders DVOA has them as the worst team that they've recorded - since 1990 - through four weeks), and sure they can go 0-16, but going 0-16 ATS is even more impossible.

Jaguars 17  Rams 27  (JAX +11.5)


Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)  @  New York Giants (0-4)  (NYG -1.5)

Welcome to the part of the season where we see a lot of NFC East games that the world forces us to see because they are in giant TV markets and are national draws, even though they are horrible teams. This one at least is spared from national TV, but NBC is giving us Redskins @ Cowboys next Sunday Night. As for this game, will I do it again? I am 1-3 betting the Giants this year. The only time I got them right was picking Denver to cover against them in Week 2. They aren't 11.5 point favorites, but the Giants are favorites after being outscored 7-69 the last two weeks. They did face two of the best defenses in the NFL and now get the opposite of that. The Eagles also get to play a bad team, after getting roundhoused by two undefeated teams on the road. Because of the low line, I do like the Giants here, but I probably should be committed for going with them... again.

Eagles 23  Giants 31  (NYG -1.5)


Baltimore Ravens (2-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-1)  (MIA -3)

Miami looked bad last week, but playing on the road on primetime in the Superdome is not too easy. The score of 38-17 actually mirrored arguably the nadir of the post-Dynasty Patriots, when they walked into then 10-0 New Orleans in 2009 and got smacked by the exact same score. For this game, I don't really know where to go. Miami has shown some ability to play good defense against anything less than stellar offenses. Baltimore has shown no ability to travel, losing badly in Denver and then sloppily in Buffalo. It would be nice for Miami to win to continue to put some pressure on New England, but I don't see it here. I like the Ravens as underdogs here. I'm going to go back to an old system from the end of last year where I bet 1,000 on each game, and pay a 10% vig on each bet. I'm going to go buy half a point for Baltimore to drop it to MIA-3.5 for an extra 5%, and take the Ravens avoiding a field goal ATS loss.

Ravens 23  Dolphins 20  (BAL +3.5*)


Seattle Seahawks (4-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-1)  (SEA -3)

I was all set to ride the Colts this week, but then I saw to two things. The first is the Seahawks O-Line getting slightly healthier this week from last, and the other is the Colts becoming a trendy public underdog pick. Now, the Colts getting some love is not for no good reason, they've looked really strong the last two weeks, finally able to really push their philosophy, however possibly outdated and misguided it may be. They abused the 49ers and can do something of the same to the Seahawks, whose O-Line is still up-and-down and where Russell Wilson hasn't exactly looked special outside of his game with the Jaguars. It is actually the other side that concerns me: can the Colts score enough? The Colts offense at times has looked confused and slow, with no real identity. They're running well, but they'll need to turn to Luck here. This is a big game, because the Colts are entering a really tough stretch (@SD on MNF, vs DEN on SNF, bye, @ HOU on SNF), and I'll take them but I'm really not confident on this one.

Seahawks 20  Colts 24  (IND +3)


Detroit Lions (3-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-2)  (GB -7.5)

This game and the next two are of concern to me, because not only do I want all of the underdogs to win because I like those teams and aren't on great terms with the favorites, but also I think the underdog is a nice play in all three. I know there is no way that all three underdogs cover (let alone win), because life doesn't work like my dreams. Anyway, this is really nice value for the Lions. I realize the Lions haven't won in Green Bay since before Brett Favre ever started a game for them (1991), but they don't have to win this one. They just have to keep it within a field goal, which they've been good at against Green Bay. They really held down the Packers offense last year in the two meetings. In those two games, Rodgers went 33-51 with 409 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, and was sacked 6 times. The Packers scored just two offensive TDs in each game, and won 24-20 in Detroit and 27-20 in Green Bay. Guess what? Both of those scores cover this number, and this is a far better Lions team than that vintage. I like the Lions to cover this.

** - Calvin Johnson is out. Still think their defense plays well, but don't score enough on offense.

Lions 14 Packers 27  (GB -7.5)


New Orleans Saints (4-0)  @  Chicago Bears (3-1)  (NO -1.5)

This is the one I am the most confident about in the three games. The Saints offense just isn't the same outdoors as it is inside any dome (and it goes up another level in their dome). They scored just 16 in Tampa. They scored just 23 in Tennessee in 2011. They scored just 14 in Denver last year. They're overall outdoor numbers in 2012 were fine but a lot of their games included some major garbage yardage (their 27-35 loss in Carolina and their 27-52 loss in New York). The Bears are off a bad loss and will want to show up after being made underdogs at home. They are a very good home team and haven't lost to Brees in Chicago, beating him in all three meetings. Yes, those meetings were a long time ago, but I'm trying to justify something here.

Saints 24  Bears 27  (CHI +1.5)


New England Patriots (4-0)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)  (NE -2)

Yeah, I'm rolling underdogs here. My hope is to just go 2-1 with these, even 1-2 is fine. 0-3 would be a disaster, and 3-0 would be not only a nice little run of picks but elation to me as three teams I like would beat three teams I don't like too much. Here's the case for Cincinnati: they play better at home (witness their win over Green Bay). They have the type of team that could give the Patriots problems, with a balanced offense with multiple targets and a defense that can shut down their run game and get pressure on Brady, who's line is definitely worse than it has been in a while (still very good overall, though). The case against them is that Andy Dalton has been extremely volatile this year, and they are missing Leon Hall against a team that might be getting Danny Amendola back. Hall is the key to stopping slot guys, as he had a brilliant game against Randall Cobb. In the end, I'll ride these underdogs, and New England has to lose at some point. They aren't that great. I keep telling myself that; I keep hoping that. I think I'll be shown true for a week at least.

Patriots 20  Bengals 27  (CIN +2)


Carolina Panthers (1-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-2)  (CAR -2.5)

OK, now that I get the run of underdogs out of the way (6 of my first 9 picks; 6 of the 8 1PM games), I can go back to business. The Panthers have a really soft, cushy schedule coming up with @MIN, vs STL, @ TB coming up, allowing them to potentially be 5-2 heading into a tough four game stretch after that (vs ATL, @SF, vs NE, @ MIA). The Panthers are a really good team that could easily be 3-0, but Arizona is a tough place to play, especially when you have a propensity to play, and more importantly lose, close games. The Cardinals are good enough to take advantage of any opportunity the Panthers give them. Luckily, this line is pretty low, and the Cardinals haven't really shown the ability to play offense yet. Also, with the Levi Brown trade making a wobbly line even more unsettled, I can see the Panthers front having a field day.

Panthers 24  Cardinals 16  (CAR -2.5)


Denver Broncos (4-0)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-2)  (DEN -9)
After warming up slowly to the Manning Show, Vegas is starting to give them their due. They should have been at least 15 point favorites against the Eagles, and I think they will slowly enter 2007 Patriots level with their lines. I don't see how teams can keep them under 30, and then it comes down to their defense playing well. So far, the Broncos defense has a bad tendency to give up a lot of 1st half yards, but they tighten up in the red zone, tighten up in the 2nd half, and then give up garbage yards and points to make their overall ranking look less impressive. The trend is still there, though, with their points allowed total going from 27 to 23-21-20. I think that could continue, as Romo struggles against teams that play a lot of man coverage (see KC this year, or Green Bay in the past) and the Broncos play a ton of it. As I said earlier, I think the Cowboys defense could at least slow down the Broncos offense better than any other team, but then again they gave up 400 yards to Philip Rivers last weekend.

Broncos 34  Cowboys 17  (DEN -9)


Houston Texans (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-2)  (SF -6)

Interesting game here. I like the Texans play for 57 minutes of last weeks game. Their D-Line is more well rounded this year with the rise of Whitney Mercilus. JJ Watt is quietly having another absolutely dominant season on the inside, and Brian Cushing should be back. Very quickly, the Texans have once again become a great defense. The problem is the offense hasn't escaped their late season lull last year to become anything other than a formulaic run and bootleg offense that people chide them with being. They used to be more, but I don't know what is wrong with Matt Schaub's head, but he checks down way too much. You can't do that against a team that can tackle the way the 49ers can. Having Duane Brown back is great, and having him face Aldon Smith's backup is even better. I like the Texans here to cover, but I think the 49ers will win and give the Texans another close loss.

Texans 20  49ers 23  (HOU +6)


San Diego Chargers (2-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (1-3)  (SD -5)

Man, if I was still in college, I would definitely watch this game. Then again, since I can work from home on Monday, maybe I should suck it up and just get 5 hours of sleep. When again will I be able to watch live football at 1:45 AM. It's like watching football living in Europe. I'm undecided on whether to watch the game, but I am not too undecided on this pick. Terrelly Pryor is back, which is good for the Raiders, but the Raiders are missing Darren McFadden. The Chargers are missing no one and need to win this game. They are better than Oakland. They can't afford another loss after losing two winnable games and finding them down two games in a tougher than expected division. Let's remember that coming into the season, people saw Oakland the way they saw the Jaguars and only the surprisingly competent play of Terrelle Pryor have made people forget about that comparison. They're still more or less the same team, and the Chargers, I believe, are a class better.

Chargers 31  Raiders 17  (SD -5)


New York Jets (2-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (1-3)  (ATL -10)

ESPN pays in the billions to get the rights to broadcast MNF games. They probably should investigate why they basically get the same quality of games they used to get when they paid far less for the SNF games back before 2006. Colts @ Chargers should be nice next Monday, but it is Vikings @ Giants (ugh), Seahawks @ Rams (double ugh), and Dolphins @ Buccaneers (the worst inter-state rivalry possible) right after. This game is not great, and that is after the Jets being considerably better than people expected coming into this season. The Falcons looked slow and old at too many positions and inexperienced at too many others last Sunday Night, but they need this game more than anything. The problem I have is the Jets have contained shorthanded offenses before and this is a high number. If it was a field goal lower I would take the Falcons easily, but I like the Jets to cover. Yes, I don't know why.

Jets 17  Falcons 23  (NYJ +10)

Enjoy the Games!!

NFL 2013: Week 5 Power Rankings and the Rest

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

49ers (-3.5)  over  RAMS  (CORRECT  =  1-0)
Steelers (-3)  over  VIKINGS  (WRONG  =  1-1)
BILLS (+3)  over  Ravens  (CORRECT  =  2-1)
Colts (-9.5)  over  JAGUARS  (CORRECT  =  3-1)
Cardinals (+2.5)  over  BUCCANEERS  (CORRECT  =  4-1)
Bengals (-4)  over  BROWNS  (WRONG  =  4-2)
Giants (+4.5)  over  CHIEFS  (WRONG  =  4-3)
TEXANS (+2)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  4-4)
LIONS (-2.5)  over  Bears  (CORRECT  =  5-4)
Jets (+3.5)  over  TITANS  (WRONG  =  5-5)
CHARGERS (+2)  over  Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  6-5)
Redskins (-3.5)  over  RAIDERS  (CORRECT  =  7-5)
BRONCOS (-11.5)  over  Eagles  (CORRECT  =  8-5)
FALCONS (-2.5)  over  Patriots  (WRONG  =  8-6)
Dolphins (+7.5)  over  SAINTS  (WRONG  =  8-7)

Week 3: 8-7

Year-to-Date: 35-28


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-4  =  31-129)

The Jaguars not only couldn't cover a 10 point spread at home against a divisional rival, but they didn't cover it by 24 points. How is this team even possibly this bad? Blaine Gabber just gets worse and worse as his career goes on. There could be a future potentially, but it is years away. They need a QB, but there doesn't seem to be any sure thing in the draft.


31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (0-4  =  44-70)

I'll give Mike Glennon credit for playing good for one half, and I'll give that defense credit for continuing to play well even though their offense is a nothing, but I can't give anyone credit for them blowing a 10 point lead with 8 minutes to go, and not only blowing it but losing the game. Greg Schiano is not long for this NFL world, and honestly, that won't be a bad thing. If anything, it might help other franchises too: college coaches are probably not a good idea.


30.) New York Giants  (0-4  =  61-146)

I don't know if I have been more wrong about anything in my time on this blog than picking the Giants to go 12-4 and win the NFC. The amazing thing is if they can beat the Eagles next weekend, and if Denver beats Dallas as it probably should, the Giants would be just one game back in the NFC East. Still, I'm done with this team. They can't block, they can't run, they can't pass consistently. their once great pass rush got old and slow overnight, and their back-seven is injured. Nothing is good right now. Nothing.


29.) Oakland Raiders  (1-3 =  71-91)

So, Matt Flynn got two medium sized contracts off of two games, one against a great Patriots team in 2010, the other against a coasting Lions team in Week 17 of 2011. So, how far will some terrible games go in making sure no one ever pays him well again? Flynn was absolutely pathetic, and showed that he was purely a product of that machine offense in Green Bay in those two games. The Redskins are not a good defense, yet they made hay of Matt Flynn.


28.) Washington Redskins  (1-3  =  91-112)

Speaking of which, nice to see RGIII have a nice game and nicer to see the team not totally go away after going down 14-0 early. That was a season saving performance, and again, if the Broncos beat the Cowboys next week, the Redskins are just half a game back of 1st place (they have a bye). They could back their way into back-to-back NFC East Titles with an 8-8 record. Stranger things have happened.


27.) St. Louis Rams  (1-3  =  69-121)

One of the benefits of playing on Thursday Night, if you lose, people just forget about you after what happens on Sunday. I think people have forgotten how terrible the Rams looked on Thursday Night against the 49ers. Their defense played well for a bit but it is stunning how bad they are against the run. They can rush the passer, but when you have an average at best offense, rush defense becomes a whole lot more important.


26.) Philadelphia Eagles  (1-3  =  99-138)

This isn't all Chip Kelly's fault. His offense is gaining yards consistently. Sure, it bogs down in the Red Zone way too much. Sure they turn it over. Sure, if they can't run it consistently, they have to convert way too many 3rd and Longs, but they gain over 6 yards per play. This offense works. The defense is so awful it is hard to comprehend. Peyton Manning did what Peyton Manning does, but they couldn't stop the run, and couldn't stop anyone in the three weeks before.


25.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (0-4  =  69-110)

While the Giants may have been my worst prediction, the Steelers going 12-4 and making the AFC Title Game may be my 2nd worst. This isn't Roethlisberger's fault, who has been quite good trying to bring his team back without any help from his running game or O-Line. He loses receivers year by year and keeps that passing game afloat. His defense is terrible, and that makes the record bad, but in that division, hope isn't gone.


24.) Minnesota Vikings  (1-3  =  115-123)

That was the game GM INSERT NAME HERE was imagining when he signed Greg Jennings. I'm unsure if this is what he was imagining when he signed Matt Cassel, but I'm sure he will take it. It is amazing that both of Tom Brady's former backups played well during the day and then Brady had his best game of the year the same night. Coicidence? Probably. Either way, it was nice for London to finally get a good game after years of Patriots beating the Rams and Buccaneers, with a sprinkle of the Bears and Denver in 2011 (do you even know who won that game? Neither do I).


23.) New York Jets  (2-2  =  68-88)

Maybe I am just underrating the Titans (and with my rank for them, I probably am), but that was a really terrible performance by the Jets defense. Jake Locker was having a really good year, but not that good of a year. As for Geno Smith, he was above average in Week 1, terrible in Week 2, great in Week 3 and now even more terrible in Week 4. How is this different than Mark Sanchez? He may have a higher ceiling, but he has the exact same floor.


22.) Cleveland Browns  (2-2  =  64-70)

I'll admit, maybe Mike Lombardi can be a decent GM. Or... maybe Brian Hoyer is living in a dream world. Either them or the Bills will be 3-2 in two days. That is astounding. Their defense has made a pretty good transition to a 3-4, and it actually has been most of the young guys and not Paul Kruger making the difference. Jabaal Sheard has come back strongly, and Barkevious is as good as that name is.


21.) Arizona Cardinals  (2-2  =  69-89)

The Cardinals won a game that was basically a copy of all the random games the Cardinals were able to pull out of their ass back in 2011 (when they ended 6-2 and finished 8-8). It was nice to see Larry Fitzgerald absolutely destroy Darrelle Revis on that game tying TD after the opposite happened on the interception. Oh, and Patrick Peterson is a bad, bad man. He was one of the few 'sure thing' corners that actually has been about as good as advertised.


20.) Atlanta Falcons  (1-3  =  94-104)

Maybe I am overreacting, because if they were better in the red zone, they might beat New England, but they have a lot of problems. Their O-Line is terrible, and I guess Matt Ryan didn't get the 'make a bad O-Line look good' gene from Peyton Manning. What Ryan did get is the 'improbably comeback against the Patriots' gene, but couldn't finish it off. The defense has loads of problems as well, but most of those problems are having too many rookies. I guess they're building for 2016, when they hope Drew Brees will finally be human again.


19.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-2  =  104-85)

Someone is winning that division, and the Cowboys are still my pick to win the division (obviously, they were not my preseason pick), but they might do it at 8-8. Random point: every offseason when the schedule comes out I pick all the games to get my first real projected standings. I had the Broncos pegged at 14-2, and my two losses for them were Week 17 in a rest-o-rama against Oakland, and their trip to Dallas. Needless to say, I'm rethinking that pick.


18.) Buffalo Bills (2-2  =  88-93)

Is there a team that can look so good on defense at times and still be average at best defensively year after year. They've had high-pick games of high profile players in the past, like a 5-pick performance against Romo in 2007, or the four-pick game against Brady in 2011 (their first win against New England since 1934). This was another one. The offense looked bad, and the running backs are hurt again, but as for Cleveland, they have a nice chance at being 3-2 in two days. Problem is in a surprisingly good AFC, 3-2 isn't all that special.


17.) Baltimore Ravens  (2-2  =  91-87)

The Ravens gave up 35 points in the 2nd Half to Denver in Week 1. They've given up 38 points in the three games since. I love bringing up how ridiculous that Denver performance is because as the season goes on, I think that Denver performance is going to be more and more of an outlier for Baltimore. It is quite obvious that the problem in Baltimore is not losing Lewis and Reed (and Kruger/Williams/Ellerbe/Pollard). The defense is still good. The offense is close to plain bad right now.


16.) Tennessee Titans  (3-1  =  98-69)

I do feel bad putting them this low, but they really should be 2-2 (that win over San Diego was the yearly 'bullshit semi-hail mary win.' Of course, they probably should have beaten the Texans, so in the end they're fine at 3-1. Part of the reason I'm docking them is Locker is out. Now, Fitzpatrick can be good in some games, but they have KC/@SEA/SF coming up before a bye. That is scary. Really just an unfortunate situation. I should mention that I compared them to the '99 Titans in my Picks, and that year Steve McNair missed a handfull of games as well.


15.) Houston Texans  (2-2  =  90-105)

Talk about a choke. There were so many things wrong with the infamous pick-six. First, they had run well all game, why not just run it on 3rd and 4. Second, why call something that closes half the field. I hate bootlegs and sprint-options on big plays like that (same thing with Atlanta's terrible 4th and 2 against NE). Finally, for Schaub, how can you throw it? Take the sack, punt it away and trust your defense, which held them down all game, to finish it off.


14.) San Diego Chargers  (2-2  =  108-102)

Not an ounce of panic when down 21-10 before the half. Not a second. That was impressive. Sure, they got fortunate with that forced fumble right at the goal line, but the Chargers may well win even had the game been cut to 30-28. Philip Rivers is playing so damn well right now. If not for Peyton Manning basically doing at the QB position the equivalent of what JJ Watt did at 3-4 DE last year, Philip Rivers would be talked about as a serious MVP candidate right now. He's playing basically at the level he was from 2008-2010. It is amazing what Chargers Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt can do with old, supposedly past-their-peak QBs.


13.) Carolina Panthers  (1-2  =  68-36)

I don't think the Panthers would have wanted a bye right after their 38-0 win, and now they get a trip to always frisky Arizona for their post-bye game. That is a tough break. Either way, Carolina is still one of the league's best defenses and although the Giants defense is putrid, the Panthers have to take something from that game in that their offense looked alive again. Particularly the passing game, as Cam seems to be getting more comfortable with guys not named 'Steve Smith.' He'll need to when Peterson takes away Smith.


12.) Miami Dolphins  (3-1  =  91-91)

I don't want to ping them too much for losing badly to the Saints yesterday. Playing New Orleans at night in the Dome is about as hard a task as any in the NFL (of course, I looked past that when picking the Dolphins to cover). What my issue with them is their O-Line can't really block too well, and Ryan Tannehill fumbles way too much. Tannehill's first two turnovers killed them in that game. First the fumble when they were driving past midfield down just 7-3, and then the pick right before the half when driving near midfield down just 14-10. Before you know it, game over. Yeah, sometimes it is that quick.

11.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-2  =  79-95)

Another possible trend I want to investigate: do teams who win on TNF play well the next week? I feel like 'momentum' (which is a precarious idea anyway) is easy to loose when you don't play for 10 days. Houston will be a nice test for the 49ers. The Texans can do to them defensively what the Colts did, and their offense is actually quite similar to Indianapolis as well. They might miss Aldon Smith more in this game, especially if Duane Brown is back for the Texans.


10) Indianapolis Colts  (3-1  =  105-51)

Yeah, they are currently 4th in points allowed in the NFL. Sure, it helps to play the Jaguars (#1 in that stat also played the Jaguars), but the Colts did something they were incapable of doing last year when they were the worst 11-5 team ever. The Colts played a team they were markedly better than, and they hammered them.


9.) Chicago Bears  (3-1  =  127-114)

A nice flurry of points made the score respectable, but to me they were massively outplayed by Detroit. Now, that was just a terrible game from Cutler and he does that a few times a year. When he does, they have no chance. What is good is their run game is still going strong, the players outside of Marshall are still making plays, and their defense is still making plays. Of course, that defense is also hemorrhaging yards, which they didn't do last year.


8.) Cincinnati Bengals  (2-2  =  81-81)

Strange performance, and it is only my biased, slanted belief that they will right themselves keeping them up this high in my power rankings. Andy Dalton, I don't think, has played an above average road game in his life (he probably has, I just don't remember it). The Bengals the past two years beat basically all the bad teams they played and struggled mightily against good ones, but this Bengals team has been the opposite. They struggled mightily against the Browns but beat the Packers. I honestly think they have a decent shot to beat New England this weekend as well. That defense is still really good.


7.) Green Bay Packers  (1-2  =  96-88)

The Packers started last season 2-3, let's not remember. By Week 17, they were a win against Minnesota away from being the #2 seed (of course, they lost, which allowed the Vikings to make the playoffs instead of Chicago, probably costing Lovie Smith his job and Peyton Manning a 5th MVP). I still think something similar can happen, but this is a huge game. Falling to 1-3, and 2.5 games behind the Lions is a really bad position to be in, but they've always beaten the Lions at home. Should be a really fun statement game for either team.


6.) Kansas City Chiefs  (4-0  =  102-41)

Another game, another 2011 49ers ish performance, with great special teams, good offense and great defense built off of a dominant Front 7. If only they didn't share a division with the Broncos. Speaking of the Broncos, the Chiefs get the Broncos two in three Weeks. Look for that 2nd meeting in Week 13, because not only do they get the Broncos in Arrowhead (where the Broncos were held to a season low 19 points last year), but that is the week after the Broncos go to New England. That could be a massive game.


5.) New England Patriots  (4-0  =  89-57)

Impressive. I can't really think of many times the Patriots have failed to deliver in a big night game on the road when they look slightly on edge. Last year's Texans game was at home, but there was the game in Pittsburgh in 2010 the week after their still shocking loss in Cleveland. The one time they noticeably did not do this was back in 2009 when the Saints shredded the living hell out of them in the Superdome. In related news, Saints@Patriots in two weeks! I can't wait for umpteen picks for New England to win because BB will want revenge after that embarrassing loss four years ago.


4.) Detroit Lions  (3-1  =  122-101)

The Lions have three wins. Two of them were at home against divisional rivals, both games were in reality dominant wins that appeared closer because of Lions mistakes (or in the case of Chicago, because of massive garbage time scoring). The Lions are doing things this year they never really did in 2010 when they started 5-0, like run the ball, or play well in the secondary. The combo of Suh and Fairley is getting scarier by the week as well. Big game coming up. If they can beat the Packers in Lambeau, they basically win that division (and no, I'm not exaggerating), or at the least finish ahead of Green Bay.


3.) New Orleans Saints  (4-0  =  108-55)

It took a while, but that offense was in 2011 or 2009 form last night against Miami. Uncovered receivers, Sproles converting 3rd and 20s. They can do it all. Of course, they still can't really run the ball, and inability to run has hurt Brees in the past (see 2010 or 2012). It hasn't yet. I'll give credit to Rob Ryan. That defense hasn't fallen apart yet. I still think it does to some degree at some point, but they're doing a nice imitation of Gregg Williams' 2009 unit.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  (4-0  =  109-47)

The Seahawks passed their 2nd test, but now it is twice that their offense was totally stymied on the road. In Week 1 against Carolina they couldn't run. Here, they couldn't pass, as Wilson was 10-17 for 123 yards and a pick. Wilson was brilliant scrambling, but he had to scramble way too much. That O-Line is a problem. Of course, they will get Percy Harvin, Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril back at some point to add to that already stacked team, and if they go just 3-3 in their remaining road games and clean house at home, they go 13-3. That is the roadmap for success here.


1.) Denver Broncos  (4-0  =  179-91)

I guess Vegas remembered what happened in 2007, when they had to give the Pats 20 point spreads after they started 8-0 ATS, and then the Pats went 2-6 ATS to finish the year. Already there are reports the Broncos might break the record for biggest favorite in two weeks when they play Jacksonville. The one concern, Peyton might only play 2.5 quarters in that one. Anyway, on the road against Dallas is their first good test, and their trip to Indy in two weeks may be another good one. In the end, Peyton Manning is doing historic things here. Someone will slow them down somewhat, but who?


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) Denver Broncos  (15-1)
2.) New England Patriots  (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals  (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts  (10-6)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  (11-5)
6.) Miami Dolphins  (10-6)


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  (13-3)
2.) Detroit Lions  (12-4)
3.) New Orleans Saints  (12-4)
4.) Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
5.) Chicago Bears  (11-5)
6.) Carolina Panthers  (10-6)



Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Overall, really good games this week. Probably something to do with the four bye teams being either 0-4 or 1-3. Sadly, way too many of them are at 1PM. Thankfully, I have my Sunday Ticket from Madden. Still don't know how or why Directv agreed to basically sell Sunday Ticket for 40 bucks, but good for them and great for me.


14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)  @  St. Louis Rams (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)  @  New York Giants (0-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (1-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-2)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Thank God there are so many good games or I might have had to care about this one" Sunday, as we get two games with 1-3 teams playing 0-4 teams, and the Panthers going to Arizona. Interesting note about the Panthers @ Cardinals game, it is now the only other game in the late window because of the hilariousness of the Chargers @ Raiders game being pushed back to 11:35 EST.


11.) New York Jets (2-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (1-3)  (MNF - ESPN)
10.) San Diego Chargers (2-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (1-3)  (SNF2 - NFLN)

I call it "Because the league had one bad night game, they decided to give us another" Monday. ESPN MNF has had a pretty good run early this year. We had a great Texans/Chargers game in Week 1. We had Peyton Manning doing Peyton Manning things, and a surprise matchup of two 3-0 teams this week. Well, it all goes to hell this week. So, the league threw us a bone and gave us bonus Monday Football, as on the East Coast, most of that Chargers/Raiders game will be well into Monday. Honestly, the NFL should randomly do that once a year. Makes an otherwise forgettable game quite unforgettable.


9.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Baltimore Ravens (2-2)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Buffalo Bills (2-2)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-2)  (TNF - NFLN)

I call it "They may be the better conference but do any of these games really seem that enticing" Sunday. Here we have six AFC teams. All .500 or better, and yet I'll be surprised if any of these games are that great. All feature average passing attacks, some of the QBs that won't have 4,000 yards, which is a feat in this modern NFL. The Browns game should be fun just because it is a night game (and the first good night game in Cleveland in years). Chiefs @ Titans would have been a lot more appealing had Jake Locker been healthy.


6.) Denver Broncos (4-0)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-2)  (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Houston Texans (2-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-2)  (SNF - NBC)
4.) Seattle Seahawks (4-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The NFC gets another shot" Sunday, as this game has the best three inter-conference games this weekend. The Broncos get what could be their first real test (similarity to 2007, the Patriots first real test came in Week 6, with a trip to play 5-0 Dallas). I have a feeling the Broncos offense won't get 35+. The Texans and Colts get to attempt to continue the trend of AFC teams beating NFC favorites (slightly cooled off last night with the Saints beating down Miami). The Colts will give the Seahawks a good test. The Texans have the ability to give the 49ers a real tough run, but if they can mentally do so remains to be seen.


3.) New Orleans Saints (4-0)  @  Chicago Bears (2-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
2.) New England Patriots (4-0)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Separation" Sunday, as these are the two best intra-conference, inter-division games. If the Bears roll the rest of the way and win that division, this could be a huge seeding game. When the Bengals rise to the top of the AFC North and leave the rest of that muk behind, that could also be a massive seeding game. I can't believe the Patriots might fly to a bye once again. To me, the Bengals are the only team in the AFC outside of Denver talented enough to match them. But can they show up? Interesting note about the Saints @ Bears game, the Saints in teh Brees era are 0-3 in Chicago. Sure, those games were all in 2006-2008, but they included the 2006 NFC Championship Game, and a, and this is no joke, really entertaining TNF game in 2008.


1.) Detroit Lions (3-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Putting Away the Demons" Sunday, as the Lions, already first in the division, get a chance to exorcise the demons from last year. The Lions were humming around .500 when they blew a totally winnable game against Green Bay in Detroit. Then they blew a 14-0 lead in Green Bay a month later. The Lions have played Green Bay rather well the last few years, but haven't been able to beat them without concussing Aaron Rodgers. They have a chance to get a hammerhold on Green Bay (a two and a half game lead, with a head-to-head win in Green Bay). Interesting note, the second matchup here is on Thanksgiving.