NFL 2013: Week 3 Power Rankings

Reviewing Last Week's Picks

Jets (+11)  over  PATRIOTS  (CORRECT  =  1-0)
Chargers (+7)  over  EAGLES  (CORRECT  =  2-0)
RAVENS (-7)  over  Browns  (CORRECT  =  3-0)
TEXANS (-9)  over  Titans  (WRONG  =  3-1)
Panthers (-3)  over  BILLS  (WRONG  =  3-2)
FALCONS (-5.5)  over  RAMS  (CORRECT  =  4-2)
Vikings (+6)  over  BEARS  (CORRECT  =  5-2)
Dolphins (+3)  over  COLTS  (CORRECT  =  6-2)
CHIEFS (-3)  over  COWBOYS  (WRONG  =  6-3)
PACKERS (-7.5)  over  REDSKINS  (CORRECT  =  7-3)
RAIDERS (-6)  over  Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  8-3)
Saints (-4)  over  BUCCANEERS  (WRONG  =  8-4)
CARDINALS (+2.5)  over  Lions  (CORRECT  =  9-4)
Broncos (-4)  over  GIANTS  (CORRECT  =  10-4)
SEAHAWKS (-2.5)  over  49ers  (CORRECT  =  11-4)
Steelers (+6.5)  over  BENGALS  (WRONG  =  11-5)

Week 2: 11-5

Year-to-Date: 20-12


Power Rankings

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (0-2  =  11-47)

Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, it doesn't matter really. The Jaguars are just a bad football team. I guess their defense has some pride, because they have at least h**eld opponents under 30 (though that probably ends this week with a little trip to Seattle) in both games. In one sense I feel bad for the Jaguars, who don't have any immediate relief in the draft coming (I'm not a huge fan of Teddy Bridgewater, but I've been wrong before).


31.) Washington Redskins  (0-2  =  47-71)

There actually haven't been too many awful teams through two weeks (and few dominant teams, there have been a ridiculous number of competitive games overall), but the Redskins have been as bad as any. Garbage Time stats aside (and that is a meaningful sentence, since the Redskins have been as prolific in garbage time as Carson Palmer was last year), the Redskins have basically been dominated like no team in the NFL. They were down 7-26 at the half of one game and 0-24 in the other. RGIII is clearly hurt and is clearly not a great pocket passer, at least this gimpy version isn't.

30.) Cleveland Browns  (0-2  =  16-37)

Same old Browns. They do everything right on defense against Baltimore, but only put up six points against a team that gave up 49 the week before. The Browns defense is still solid and will keep them from being blown out all too often, but when your QB options are either a potentially hurt Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell, it won't matter in the win column. The one saving grace is that the AFC North may be in a down period (like every AFC Division, for that matter).


29.) Oakland Raiders  (1-1  =  36-50)

Yeah, I'm giving them little credit for beating the worst team in football. Whatever credit goes away when you realize that the passing offense once again did nothing and now they take their run-based offense into Denver and the league's best rush defense (among the other things they are the best in the league at) on Monday Night. Just to say this: that line can't get high enough.


28.) Minnesota Vikings  (0-2  =  54-65)

Tough break for the Vikings who could have won that game, but then again their offense was mediocre for the second straight game. Christian Ponder telegraphed that pass so bad I thought it was Jay Cutler throwing it. It was nice to see Jared Allen with a strip sack, playing like it was 2009 all over again. Too bad these days in Minnesota they wish they had Brett Favre back.


27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (0-2  =  31-34)

I'm probably slamming the Buccaneers too hard, because they were winning both games with 59:56 gone, but lost both on walk-off field goals. That said, Josh Freeman looks terrible and they are close to redoing basically the exact same mutiny they had at the end of Raheem Morris's tenure. That defense still plays really hard, and whoever replaces Greg Schiano will have a lot to work with on that side of the ball, but they need to sort out that QB situation. With the ridiculous depth at QB in the league, teams without a legitimate QB are just screwed week in, week out.


26.) New York Jets  (1-1  =   28-30)

Couldn't they throw me a bone and win that game against New England? Couldn't they just do me a solid for once (other than that time when they did win that game in New England in January, 2011)? That defense is still good enough to beat any average offense (and New England without any for Tom Brady to throw to qualifies), but their offense just can't keep making terrible mistakes. It's not all on Geno either. Receivers run bad routes, drop passes, fumble for no apparent reason. The Jets could be 2-0, instead, they embark on the toughest part of their schedule (outside of this coming week), and are probably a handful of weeks away from Rex Ryan potentially being fired.


25.) Carolina Panthers  (0-2  =  30-36)

Let's just erase the fact that I picked them to not only win the division, but make the NFC Championship Game. Let's just forget that. How can a team be so ridiculously terrible at playing in close games time and time again. If DeAngelo Williams doesn't fumble against Seatttle, they likely win in Week 1, and if they just go for it on 4th and 1, or if the refs don't call a mysterious DPI penalty on the last drive, they win in Week 2. I was so close to being vindicated for one of my ballsier predictions.


24.) Buffalo Bills  (1-1  =  45-46)

Lost in the DPI is that EJ Manuel had another effective game, and more and more it looks like Doug Marrone actually knows what he is doing and that hiring a middling college coach wasn't such a 'Bills' like idea after all. That was a beautiful play on the game winning touchdown, worthy of a game winning touchdown. If anything, the Bills are exciting to watch again. Of course, in this wacky, every-game-is-close season, there are only a handful of teams that aren't exciting to watch.


23.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (0-2  =  19-36)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have given up just 18 points per game. That is the good news. The bad news is they've scored just 19 points total in two games. I won't put this on Roethlisberger. His o-line sucks once again, he has the worst Running Back By Committee ever established, and the Steelers let another good WR walk (following the footsteps of Plaxico, Nate Washington, Santonio Holmes). They are a mess. I can't believe I picked them to go 12-4 and make the AFC Title Game (thank God for the Broncos, my only good preseason pick). Of course, in the AFC they probably aren't out of it, but that game hosting Chicago becomes awfully important now.


22.) Philadelphia Eagles  (1-1  =  63-50)

Well, two weeks in an Chip Kelly is leading the 3rd highest scoring team in the NFL, the team that leads the league in yards per play. So why do I have them this low? Well, for one, if the Chargers don't fumble on back-to-back possessions inside the Eagles red zone in the 1st Half, this game isn't even close, and they still can't play defense. They never had a practice with live tackling in training camp and it shows. The best moment was when they left Eddie Royal wide open on a three-man rush. Something that is hard to do in Madden.


21.) Indianapolis Colts  (1-1  =  41-41)

I never liked the hiring of Pep Hamilton. I thought it was a move made by Irsay, thinking he can outsmart everyone by getting Andrew Luck's old college coordinator to coach him. Well, this offense doesn't play to Luck's skills at all. Andrew Luck is Ben Roethlisberger, with the potential to be even better. Just as Roethlisberger has been neutered in Todd Haley's offense, Luck is neutered. I hope to hell the Pep era fails just so they can replace him with someone good.


20.) St. Louis Rams  (1-1  =  51-55)

Is it strange that through two weeks the real problem in St. Louis has been their defense? Their D-Line has been good but not great, and their corners are getting torched a little too much. It is still early, and the NFC should be a blood-bath all year, but with the best defense in the NFL, another top-five defense, and another borderline top-10 defense (Arizona) in the same division, the Rams better figure out how to get close to that level. It is nice to see Sam Bradford finally play to his level.


19.) Tennessee Titans  (1-1  =  40-39)

I'm stunned at Tennessee right now. Until their inevitable late collapse, they had totally dismantled the Texans offense. This was the worst scoring defense in the NFL last year. They were awful defensively, and weren't much better in 2011. Then, without making any huge moves outside of getting known Patriots killer (which isn't Aaron Hernandez, a known Patriots' killer) Bernard Pollard, they have become a good unit all of a sudden. There's something strange brewing in the AFC, where so far the South and West are the two best divisions in the conference.


18.) New York Giants  (0-2  =  54-77)

As bad as my Panthers NFC Championship Loss prediction was, it is even worse since the team I picked to knock them off in that game was the Giants. Of course, they meet in Week 3 both 0-2. The loser of that game is gone. That said, the Giants are just half a game back, with a light schedule coming up. Even their second half schedule this year is better than in years past. I'm not giving up yet. In 2007, they started 0-2, and those losses were a shootout in Dallas (35-45), and a blowout home loss to an aging legend at QB (13-35 to the Favre-led Packers), and they won the Super Bowl. One can hope?


17.) Dallas Cowboys  (1-1  =  52-48)  

Is there anything more Cowboys-ish than for Romo to go 30-42 for 298 yards with a TD and no picks and somehow have the team score just 16 points. I lambasted the Cowboys back in my 2009 Playoffs Preview for being terrible at converting yardage into points, and over the years they haven't gotten any better at it. I have never seen a team that can put up pretty yards each week and still somehow end the season scoring less than 400 points.


16.) Arizona Cardinals  (1-1  =  49-48)

I don't know why I have them so high, but I'll just say this: neither Seattle or San Francisco is going to go into Arizona this year and win by more than 10. That place is damn tough to play in, and has been that way since 2007. Even in the lean years (2010-11), the Cardinals were good for some great home performances. That defense is still awfully good, and that they could come back against a good Lions team without Larry Fitzgerald speaks volumes to how well Carson Palmer has fit into the Cardinals. There's a reason I thought they were Super Bowl contenders in 2012 had they gotten Peyton Manning. They got Palmer a year later, and while that is quite a downgrade, he's still good enough to make them a really fun team.


15.) Baltimore Ravens  (1-1  =  41-55)

That was a classic 2010 Ravens win: a slow, plodding effort against a middling team ending in a more convincing win than it should have been. They were in control all along it seemed. It was nice to see Stokley and Clark look slightly better this time around. I worry about Ray Rice's injury and I still don't think Flacco has nearly enough to score a lot of points consistently, but it was nice to see that defense rebound greatly after that embarrassing 49 points allowed effort from week 1.


14.) San Diego Chargers  (1-1  =  61-61)

For someone who hated everything about Philip Rivers from 2007-2009, I can't believe I am about to say this, but it brings me a lot of joy to see Philip Rivers play awesome once again. He was so good in that game. He answered every jab the Eagles threw at him with two of his own. The Chargers probably should have scored 40+ points (two red zone fumbles will do that to you), and he threw for over 400 yards with missing his main receiver for most of the game. Now, the Eagles defense is pathetic, but I still think Rivers was never as bad as his 2012 made it out to seem. There is life in San Diego yet.


13.) Detroit Lions  (1-1  =  55-49)

I think people are wildly overreacting to the Lions loss in Arizona. As I said before, Arizona is not an easy place to play. They have a really good defense. Now, the Lions scored just 14 points on offense, which isn't great, but Calvin got into the action. The Reggie Bush injury scares me, but the Lions still played a pretty good game defensively. No team goes 16-0, teams lose games, including often to average teams on the road. That is all that was.


12.) Miami Dolphins  (2-0  =  47-30)

There's a lot to like in Miami right now. Their run game showed life, their defense continues to play at a really high level, Mike Wallace made some plays, and Ryan Tannehill has definitely gotten better in Year 2. Of course, the best part is that they are 2-0, and both games are on the road. I'm sure no one more than them is upset that the Patriots are somehow sitting at 2-0, but the Dolphins have a chance at winning the division. It would help their cause if Amendola and Gronk stay out, but they aren't going away.


11.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-0  =  45-18)

Do you know who the 2013 Chiefs remind me of? The 2011 San Francisco 49ers, the first Jim Harbaugh team that gameplanned their way to 13-3 behind a mistake-free Alex Smith (just 10 turnovers as a team) and a dominant defense. That was another great game from the Chiefs defense (how good is Dontari Poe?), and another mistake free game from Smith. If they can go to Philly and win a game that they are built to win (they are the perfect team to ball control the fuck out of the Eagles), then I think this Chiefs team is close to a lock for the playoffs (and Andy Reid is a lock for his 2nd Coach of the Year award).


10.) New Orleans Saints  (2-0  =  39-31)

They could easily be 0-2 if Matt Ryan completes one of three passes or if the Buccaneers hit a field goal, but the Saints are sitting nicely at 2-0 with two divisional wins. It should be a little concerning that they have scored under 20 points per game (their offensive level through two games is actually DOWN from last year), but the Rob Ryan defense has worked splendidly so far. They get Arizona next week, and I could see that game going any number of directions.


9.) Houston Texans  (2-0  =  61-52)

Yes, the Texans have had to come back down from 21 and 8 to win their two games, but their defense has actually played quite well. They had awful field position and red zone luck against San Diego, and they only gave up 17 points on defense to Tennessee. I'm still concerned that they've needed to resort to such ridiculous measures to beat San Diego and Tennessee, but they are still the class of the AFC South. Their next few games will tell us a lot, as they get Baltimore, San Francisco and Seattle in a four week span.


8.) New England Patriots  (2-0  =  36-31)

How is this team 2-0? Tom Brady has completed 53% of his passes, for a passer rating under 75. This is worse than Brady in 2006 for all intents and purposes. Yet here they are, with a game against the winless Bucs to come. Of course, would I be shocked if the Bucs control this passing offense that will be without Vereen and Amendola once again? No, but I can't imagine Josh Freeman doing great either. I can already see it, the Pats win 23-14 and everyone rights stories about the 3-0 Pats, led by their defense for the first time since 2006 due to good games against two rookies and Josh Freeman, heading to Atlanta as a trendy upset pick, and then have Matt Ryan rip them apart. I can't wait.


7.) Chicago Bears  (2-0  =  55-51)

That was a Bears game, alright. Devin Hester was ridiculous. Jay Cutler was awful at times. Jay Cutler was also brilliant at times. I don't know what to make of the Bears so far. The Marc Trestman offense is working on its face, as Cutler's only been sacked once against two good pass rushes, but the run game is not there and Alshon Jefferey is still among the league's biggest teases. Of course, if they still maintain their Lovie Smith-era level of defense and Special Teams, it won't matter.


6.) Atlanta Falcons  (1-1  =  48-47)

Nice to see a return to form for Matt Ryan, who casually threw for 374 yards with Roddy White again a decoy. Julio Jones is just an incredible player, so amazing to watch. Also, I liked their pickup of Osi, and I like it more even now. The Falcons have a nice game coming up against the Dolphins to go out and make a statement that they won't be up and down all year, and personally, I think they do it.


5.) Cincinnati Bengals  (1-1  =  41-34)

The league's new title holder of 'best roster outside of QB', the Bengals took care of business Monday Night. To take them serious at the end of the day, they needed to win that game, to avoid an 0-2 start, to place an 0-2 start on Pittsburgh, and to show up in a primetime game (just look at their performance in their SNF game hosting Pittsburgh last year). They accomplished all three. Andy Dalton still needs to get better, but that division is eminently winnable, and with the Texans and Patriots starting out a lackadaisical 2-0, so is a 1st Round Bye.


4.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-1  =  37-57)

It is weird ranking a team that has been outscored by 20 points through two games 4th, but that was basically an unwinnable game. They were also gobsmacked last year in Seattle (a 42-13 loss in December), and then rolled off three straight wins and went to the Super Bowl. One thing to worry about is that in a game where Anquan Boldin didn't go wild, Kaepernick looked awful. His second and third pick were about as bad as I've seen him read a defense. He still ran nicely, but he too isn't exactly as good of a pocket passer as people seem to believe.



3.) Green Bay Packers  (1-1  =  66-54)

I've never seen anyone get hot like Aaron Rodgers. Maybe Peyton in his prime, or Kurt Warner, or Tom Brady back in 2007. Of course, I expect Rodgers to look way more mortal against a great Bengals defense in Week 3, but those Rodgers performances are special. I was happy to see McCarthy keep throwing it after getting that huge lead, a nice change from previous years. What pleases me most about the Packers is their defense had a good game (forget the garbage yards, they dominated the Redskins passing game). If their defense keeps this up, and the NFC West teams hammer each other, they can steal the #1 seed.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  (2-0  =  41-10)

The Seahawks were so good that Russell Wilson could have a terrible game (8/19, looking lost at times) and they could still win by 26. Sure, some of it was fortunate field position and some timely penalties extending drives, but that was a demolition. More than anything, though, I was happy to see defense being played so well (by both teams, really), and this was without Brandon Browner, Chris Clemons or Bruce Irvin. Just a fantastic effort by the most fun defense to watch in the NFL. With the Jaguars next, they could have a ridiculously low points allowed total after three games.


1.) Denver Broncos  (2-0  =  90-50)

Who else? They just beat the last two Super Bowl Champions 90-50, and that was with playing a sometimes sloppy, sometimes lazy first half in both games and giving up late scores to make the games seem somewhat close. Peyton looks as sharp as ever, and that offense just keeps going. Drops don't faze them. Fumbles don't faze them. Nothing fazes them. Their pass rush was silent after a great Week 1, but their secondary made up for it in spades. No team is deeper in the secondary than Denver, and no team has a better rush defense. That is a nice combination, after all.


Postseason Projections (Why not do these right after Week 2?)

AFC

1.) Denver Broncos  (14-2)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals  (12-4)
3.) New England Patriots  (11-5)
4.) Houston Texans  (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  (10-6)
6.) Miami Dolphins  (10-6)


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  (13-3)
2.) Atlanta Falcons  (12-4)
3.) Green Bay Packers  (12-4)  [why not pick a random one]
4.) New York Giants  (9-7)
5.) Detroit Lions  (10-6)
6.) San Francisco 49ers  (10-6)


Ranking Next Week's Games

16.) Cleveland Browns (0-2)  @  Minnesota Vikings (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Buffalo Bills (1-1)  @  New York Jets (1-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

The "Two Bad Teams Playing Each Other" division. If anyone has this as their Sunday doubleheader (and I don't think that is possible), I truly feel sorry for them. I guess the Bills and Jets are marginally interesting, but really all the winner gets is a leg up to being the 3rd place team in the AFC East.


14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-0)  (4:25 - CBS)
13.) Oakland Raiders (1-1)  @  Denver Broncos (2-0)  (MNF)

The "Let's Just Remember Who The Road Teams Were When The Home Team Wins By 30" division. Seattle will probably come close to shutting out Jacksonville, and come close to some sort of record for fewest points allowed through three games (13 is the current record, set by the 2001 Packers and 2004 Seahawks). The Broncos get to play another boring night game where Manning looks like Peyton Manning and the world realizes that Terrelle Pryor isn't as exciting when playing teams outside the AFC South.


12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)  @  New England Patriots (2-0)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) San Diego Chargers (1-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Detroit Lions (1-1)  @  Washington Redskins (0-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Indianapolis Colts (1-1)  @  San Francisco 49ers (1-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

The "You'll Talk Yourself Into Them Being Fun, But They Won't" division... and yes, I'm including the Lions @ Redskins in there, because the Lions front will come close to ruining RGIII's other knee (and I hope they don't because I like watching a healthy RGIII). The Colts are walking into a bloodbath in San Francisco against an angry 49ers team. The Buccaneers could be entering something similar. The Chargers and Titans are both surprises so far, but I can't imagine the two teams that combined for one of the most boring playoff games of the last 10 years playing an exciting game here.


8.) Arizona Cardinals (1-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (2-0)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Houston Texans (2-0)  @  Baltimore Ravens (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) St. Louis Rams (1-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

The "Sneaky Fun Games That You Didn't Expect" division. The Texans and Ravens have started slowly (well, for the Texans, a slow 2-0), but should play a fun little game in Baltimore. The other one is the more intriguing one for me. I don't know why, but I like the matchup from the Cardinals perspective. Brees is still a little careless with the ball, and that Cardinals team will make them pay. I'm not saying they are going to go into the Superdome and win, but they'll give the Saints a run. As for the Rams, I think their defense can also give the Cowboys some problems up front, and it will be interesting to see if Bradford can take his good play to the biggest stadium in the country.


5.) New York Giants (0-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (0-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Chicago Bears (2-0)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)  (SNF)

The "Desperation Is Usually a Good Thing" division. Because it is the NFC, one teams season is probably ending in that first game. I guess the Giants could start 0-3, finish 9-4, and steal the NFC East, but the Panthers need a win to have any shot at the NFC South. A fun little do-or-die Week 3 game right there. The Bears are one of the more surprising 2-0 teams, and the Steelers among the most surprising 0-2 teams. The Steelers looked lifeless again, and honestly, if they don't beat the Bears, they should fire Todd Haley on the field after the game.


3.) Atlanta Falcons (1-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (2-0)  (4:05 - FOX)

The "Prove Yourself" Division, as Miami gets their first chance this season against a good team. Winning in Indianapolis is nice (only one other team has done it against Andrew Luck), but beating the Falcons in Miami would be a bigger signal to the NFL, along with the Patriots, that they could actually make a run at the AFC East.


2.) Green Bay Packers (1-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

The "Offense vs. Defense" Game, one of the few potential Super Bowl Previews' we have had during these first three weeks. The Bengals took care of business against Pittsburgh, and now gets the other Super Bowl team from 2010 in their building. The last time Aaron Rodgers played the Bengals, he was sacked 8 times in a lifeless loss in Lambeau Field. That was a different Bengals team completely, this is a scarier one. Their defense will test Rodgers in a way that is the polar opposite of what the Redskins did. Should be fun.


1.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)  @   Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)  (TNF)

The "Revenge of the Ried' Game. Few Thursday Night games ever turn out good, but a few have over the years. No one seems to remember a great game played by the, at the time, 9-2 Ravens and 9-2 Falcons back in 2010, or even the Jets win in New England with Favre in 2008, or the Redskins first of four straight wins in the aftermath of Sean Taylor's death in 2007, or the Colts, at the time, keeping perfection alive against the Jaguars in 2009, or Tebow's miracle win over the Jets in 2011, or even the first 49ers/Seahawks game in the modern rivalry last year. What I'm saying is there usually is a good game or two each year, why not this one?

NFL 2013: Week 2 Picks

Week 1 Picks: 9-7

New York Jets (1-0)  @  New England Patriots (1-0)  (NE -11)

This is a high line for a team missing their best receiver (and only receiver who played worth a damn in the first game against Buffalo), with one half of their running game combo gone and Gronkowski not back. As they showed again last week, Rex Ryan can gameplan the hell out of an offense with no weapons. Tom Brady is great, but yeah, they have no one to throw to. To me, it comes down to whether I think the Jets can even score 10 points. Geno Smith played better than I he would be, but this is a really tough spot for them. I'll take the Jets just because that line is a little ridiculous, but I've been burned by New England before.

Jets 14  Patriots 20  (NYJ +11)


San Diego Chargers (0-1)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)  (PHI -7)

Overreaction line of the week part 1. The Chargers probably should have closed out a good Houston team Monday Night, and the Eagles had to hang on to beat an average Redskin team. Yes, the Chargers did their mess at home while the Eagles did theirs on the road, but I think these teams are close than that line would make it seem. What scares me is the Chargers having to go to Philadelphia to play an early game, but I love going against the overreaction lines from Week 1. No one is as good as they looked in Week 1 (Denver, probably) and no one looks as bad (Jags probably won't get shutout on offense again). The Eagles probably won't look as good. I don't know why I keep doing this, but I'll still trust Philip Rivers. Again, I don't know why. I just don't know. I need to stop. This blog started in 2009, and when I think of Philip Rivers, I mentally just go back to then, I guess.

Chargers 23  Eagles 20  (SD +7)


Cleveland Browns (0-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (1-0)  (BAL -7)

What's weird is this line was probably dropped a bit because of just how bad Baltimore looked in Week 1 in Denver. Of course, the Browns looked about as bad at home against a worse team. The Browns were just so unable to do anything against the Dolphins defense (which is admittedly quite good), while the Ravens actually scored 14 legitimate points. So far, I went against the high lines for the Jets and Chargers, but I hate the Browns here. The Ravens were embarrassed after that Week 1 performance and will come out strong in their home opener (not sure if there will be some Super Bowl festivities before the game), and the Ravens love to cream the Browns. Once again, this reasoning worked better when Reed and Lewis were there, but that Ravens defense, as weird as this sounds, wasn't all that bad in Week 1. They can dominate Weeden, and I think they will.

Browns 13  Ravens 27  (BAL -7)


Tennessee Titans (1-0)  @  Houston Texans (1-0)  (HOU -9)

I hate this game. I hate a line this high when it seems so easy to push the points. The Texans are still a lot better, and the Titans offense looked quite bad in Week 1. I'm not really sure how the Titans managed to score at all in Week 1, and the Texans defense is probably better than the Steelers defense at this point. The Texans offense started clicking late in the game, and they're going up against a defense that played pretty close to perfect. Anyway, I don't want to overthink this at all, I'll just go with the better team at home.

Titans 13  Texans 28  (HOU -9)


Carolina Panthers (0-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (0-1)  (CAR -3)

Two of the teams that had the most heartbreaking losses in Week 1. The Panthers, I think, win that game if DeAngelo Williams doesn't fumble. The Bills win that game if they just make one more play on those Patriots 3rd downs on the final drive, or if Doug Marrone realized that you shouldn't run a hurry-up fast paced offense when up late in the 4th quarter, and if he realized that on a 3rd and 1 at midfield, with the running game starting to really work, maybe a run is a better call than a pass. Anyway, no, I'm not bitter that they couldn't close out the Pats. Anyway, I'm surprised the Panthers are favored here by this much, but I do think they are a more talented team. Their defense is great, and as long as you can shut down that Bills run game, they are a pretty easy team to figure out.

Panthers 23  Bills 17  (CAR -3)


St. Louis Rams (1-0)  @  Atlanta Falcons (0-1)  (ATL -5.5)

High line, but I can't imagine the Falcons going to 0-2. The question is can I see them winning this game by at least 5.5. The Rams offense looked alive last week, playing about as well as I have seen them play since maybe Week 2 last year (a wild win over the Redskins). They have a dependable target for the first time in Jared Cook. What scares me for Atlanta is that they looked so bad trying to block the Saints last week, and the Saints aren't a particularly good defensive front. The Rams are a pretty good defensive front, and they might wreak havoc on that Falcons offense. I really think this is a perfect line for this game. I have no idea what to do, but I do think the Falcons just can't start 0-2.

Rams 17  Falcons 24  (ATL -5.5)


Minnesota Vikings (0-1)  @  Chicago Bears (1-0)  (CHI -6.5)

Is this an overreaction line? The Bears somehow pull out a win over the Bengals, while the Vikings do everything wrong after Peterson's first run. Either way, this line seems a little high. I'm not ready to truly trust that Chicago offense, and while it's nice to be at home, I don't like this line this high. My problem is can the Vikings score enough to keep it close? The Vikings offense ended up scoring a decent amount of points, but all of the problems that Ponder showed in 2012 was quite apparent in Week 1 this year. Either way, what I would love to do is do a three-team tease with the Vikings as one of them (pushing them into double digit underdog territory), but since I'm not advocating being a gambling addict, I'm avoiding that temptation and taking the Vikings normally.

Vikings 17  Bears 20  (MIN +6)


Miami Dolphins (1-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-0)  (IND -3)

The Dolphins definitely looked to be a better team in their Week 1 win than the Colts looked like in Week 1. Both had what seems to be bad opponents (Cleveland, Oakland), but the Colts had to escape with a four-point win at home and the Dolphins owned Cleveland on the road. They played an entertaining game last year after both started 3-2, with the Colts winning behind Andrew Luck's rookie-record 426 yards. I can't see Luck doing that, but I have major problems with the Colts right now. Their defense has no real identity, no real mission. I'm not quite sure what they're building over there. The Dolphins know what they have and it works really well. The Colts offense is still good and in the Luck era, the Colts are now 8-1 at home, but I just don't like how that team played in Week 1. Combine this with Ballard on IR and Allen likely out, and I don't think the Colts can score enough.

Dolphins 24  Colts 20  (MIA +3)


Dallas Cowboys (1-0)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)  (KC -3)

I'm surprised the Chiefs are favored by so much. I realize that the Chiefs were really, really impressive beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville and the Cowboys needed a sixth turnover to close out a team after getting five already. That's not good. What's worse is that Cowboys offense was really ineffective. I've never seen a guy have 36 completions for barely over 250 yards. That was dink and dunk to a level I haven't seen before. The Chiefs are a decent team, but I can see some regression after a picture perfect Week 1, but Andy Reid loved to beat up on the Cowboys. I'm sure he would love to once again, especially in his first home game of his tenure there. The line is also low enough to be safe with picking the winner and the line correct together.

Cowboys 20  Chiefs 24  (KC -3)


Washington Redskins (0-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (0-1)  (GB -7.5)

I actually was really impressed with the Packers performance in Week 1. Their offense blocked the 49ers better than it did in either game a year ago, and the Rodgers-to-Nelson combination looked like it did back in 2010-11. Their defense was aggressive, shutting down the run, and while Kaepernick and Boldin diced him all over the place, they were missing some of their guys. I can't see the Redskins establishing much of a run game in this game either. I didn't see much of the MNF game against the Eagles, but by all accounts RGIII just isn't close to 100% yet, and a game in Lambeau against a rejuvanated defense probably isn't the best way to get ready.

Redskins 21  Packers 31  (GB -7.5)


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)  @  Oakland Raiders (0-1)  (OAK -6)

The Raiders could end up as the worst team ever to be favored in a game by six points. And yes, that is how bad the Jaguars were last week. The Raiders actually seemed somewhat competent in that game, with Terrelle Pryor playing really well. I think he might struggle a bit at home, but they don't need to score too many points to beat the Jaguars, a team that scored all of zero points last week. By the way, I've already written five lines on this game. That is four lines more than necessary.

Jaguars 14  Raiders 21  (OAK -6)


New Orleans Saints (1-0)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)  (NO -4)

So, are the Saints back, or are they just lucky that the Falcons screwed up an inside the 10 scenario down by less than a score for the third time dating back to last October. Rob Ryan's defense seemed OK in the first game, but history shows that Ryan's defenses have a tendency to play up or down to their competition (not in a good way, by the way). I can see their defense trying to be too cute and give up ~160 yards to Vincent Jackson. I say this as a long way of saying that I still think the Saints win and cover this line, because I can't think less of what the Buccaneers are right now.

Saints 27  Buccaneers 20  (NO -4)


Detroit Lions (1-0)  @  Arizona Cardinals (0-1)  (DET -2.5)

Oddly intriguing game here. If the Broncos and Giants weren't playing Manning Bowl III, I might sit down and watch a whole bunch of this game. Fun teams, fun stadium, fun everywhere. Can Stafford throw for a bunch of yards against a good defense at home. Can Palmer survive the Lions front with his O-Line? Can the Cardinals become one of the best 0-2 teams of all time? So many possibilities. Honestly, I can see a lot of potential things happening here. However, what I think will happen is the Cardinals, like they are prone to do a handful of times each year, play inspired at home.

Lions 20  Cardinals 23  (ARZ +2.5)


Denver Broncos (1-0)  @  New York Giants (0-1)  (DEN -4)

Manning Bowl III. Yes, this was also my preseason Super Bowl pick, and a Giants loss here makes them 0-2, which is not exactly good for their Super Bowl hopes. Of course, in 2007, they started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, but that is notable because it is rare. Anyway, I can't really see the Giants stopping the Broncos from scoring in the high 20's at the very best. The Broncos defense was really impressive, even for a team that gave up 27 points, and they have enough players in the secondary to slow down those Giants receivers. The Giants run game is also in dissarray. The Broncos are just a better team right now, and I may have truly overestimated the Giants (and Steelers) this year.

Broncos 30  Giants 21  (DEN -4)


San Francisco 49ers (1-0)  @  Seattle Seahawks (1-0)  (SEA -2.5)

Great game. Great rivalry. These teams met in two night games last year, with the 49ers winning a bloodbath 13-6 against the Seahawks early, and the Seahawks blowing them out 42-14 in the return leg in Qwest (I refuse to call it whatever they do these days). I can't see 42-14 happening this time (that was the week after the 49ers played an emotional, tiring, bruising game in New England), but I can definitely see the Seahawks winning by enough to make everyone think they are the to Super Bowl candidate. The Seahawks defense needs to get more pressure though. They did nothing against Cam Newton last week, and they need to get bodies after Kaepernick to have a shot. I think they do, just enough, and take the points with a low line.

49ers 20  Seahawks 23  (SEA -2.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)  (CIN -6.5)

This is the most the Steelers have been underdogs in since their game against the Patriots in 2007 (with Roethlisberger starting). The Bengals themselves let a win slip away last week, the type of game they have to close out if they want people to take them seriously as Super Bowl contenders. The Steelers offense looked as bad as it ever has considering the perceived mediocrity of their opponent. The Titans aren't a great team, they were abhorrent in scoring defense last year, and the Steelers only offensive points came in garbage time. The Steelers defense is still good, and they absolutely dominated the Bengals offense in Cincinnati in a night game last year. I still like the Steelers defense, but that offense is just so bad. In the end, the line seems high enough that there is some value in the Steelers in this game to cover, but still lose.

Steelers 17  Bengals 21  (PIT +6.5)

NFL 2013: Week 1 Picks (and a little More)

First a quick note about my NFL coverage on the blog. I'm starting work (actual work) tomorrow. I'll almost definitely have less time than ever to write about the NFL, because I'll have less time to even think about the NFL. I'll still make picks, but my hilariously long 'Power Rankings & The Rest' pieces will probably be massively trimmed or gone alltogether. Anyway, here are the picks for week 1.

(all lines from Sportsbook)

Baltimore Ravens  @  Denver Broncos  (DEN -7)

Since 2004, Peyton Manning is 10-2 in home night games. I don't know if this is true, but the '2' is. Anyway, until last year's divisional round, Peyton Manning hadn't lost to the Ravens since 2001. Well, that is over now. This used to be one of the greatest locks in football, the defending champion opening at home. Well, the Giants lost last year and now the Ravens have to open in Denver (New England really lucked out, as NE @ BAL would have probably been the opener). I'm happy the line isn't higher. Vegas really doesn't like the Ravens this year (their over/under is 8.5), but they're giving them some credit. The Broncos don't have Von Miller, but the Ravens don't have Boldin and Pitta, two people who really did well against the Broncos in the playoffs. Both teams have something to prove, but I feel like Manning angry is definitely better than Joe Flacco angry. Also, I don't know how to trust an Ed Reed-less and Ray Lewis-less defense just yet.

Ravens 20  @  Broncos 31  (DEN -7)


Kansas City Chiefs  @  Jacksonville Jaguars  (KC -4.5)

I'm starting with the worst 1PM games first. This one is quite terrible. The Jaguars are along with Oakland everyones pick for the worst team in the NFL. The Chiefs, I would imagine, will start the season well under Andy Reid. Trouble may not come until later in Kansas City. With Justin Blackmon out, the Jaguars just don't have any firepower at all. The Chiefs are fully healthy coming into this game. The line is high for a middling team on the road being the favorite, but I think the Chiefs cover it quite easily.

Chiefs 24  @  Jaguars 13  (KC -4.5)


Miami Dolphins  @  Cleveland Browns  (CLE -1)

I definitely like the Dolphins more than Cleveland for the year, but with the even line, I'm unsure about how it will play out in this one game. The Browns have some optimism right now under new leadership. As with most things about the Browns these days, the key comes down to whether they can score enough to hang with Miami. The Browns o-line is average, and Cameron Wake could go wild against Cleveland. Brandon Weeden looked awful in their dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Colts, and I hate to use preseason performances to justify my opinions, but I am doing just that. I'm shocked the Dolphins are underdogs here, and it screams out to me as great value.

Dolphins 23  @  Browns 14  (MIA +1) 


New England Patriots  @  Buffalo Bills  (NE -10.5)

I wonder what this line would have been if Jeff Tuell was the starting QB for the Bills. Probably in vintage 2007 Pats range (the year of the famous -21 line against Baltimore). Anyway, it is EJ Manuel, which I guess decreases the near certainty of the Pats blowout. I don't really trust New England to cover double digit spreads anymore, but there are a lot of plays for the New England side here. First, they were in a really similar situation last year when they went to Tennessee, had a double digit spread and covered it easily. Secondly, I could really see BB trying to prove to the NFL that his offense works. And what if the EJ Manuel led offense does nothing? Still, I don't trust high lines like these, and I don't think Buffalo is a terrible team.

Patriots 31  @  Bills 23  (BUF +10.5)


Tennessee Titans  @  Pittsburgh Steelers  (PIT -7)

The Steelers have covered each of their last seven home openers. That's a nice stat I like to bring out every now and then (namely, right now and never again). The Steelers, even if they are just a 9-7 type team with a slightly above average offense and defense, should definitely win this game. The Titans don't really have the type of offensive players to challenge the Steelers. They can't really spread out the field. They can't really get a ton of pressure on Ben since they don't have those players. The Steelers have to win this type of game if they want to really go anywhere this year. I think they will go to a lot of places and win this game quite easily.

Titans 13  @  Steelers 27  (PIT -7) 


Minnesota Vikings  @  Detroit Lions  (DET -6)

Interesting game and an interesting line. I'm surprised that the Lions are favored by so much. This line essentially means that Vegas thinks they are three points better than Minnesota on a neutral site. The Vikings were six games better last year. But I can see what Vegas is telling us here, the Lions are far better than the 4-12 from 2012, and the Vikings aren't nearly as good as the 10-6 from 2012. The Lions are quite good a run defense, and while Peterson did quite well against them last year, it was still good enough to win all two meetings last year. Obviously, I'm leaning towards the Lions winning the game, but that line is just really high. I hate picking a team to win and not cover when the line is less than a TD, but it does happen a lot. I can see the Lions finally winning a close game, extolling a lot of their demons from late last year when they blew lead after lead. In that way, the 2013 Lions are quite similar to the 2012 Vikings, a team that is more talented than their previous year record where they blew a ton of leads.

Vikings 24  @  Lions 31  (DET -6)


Oakland Raiders  @  Indianapolis Colts  (IND -10)

I'll sum this one up easily: if the Colts don't win this game, then their season is essentially over. If they don't cover this game, they aren't a playoff-caliber team. I think they are both (though I don't think they get there), but they should beat a terrible Raider team quite easily. Covering a double digit line is hard, even at home against a potentially awful team. If I pick them, then I'm revealing my Pats-hater skin for not picking them to do the same thing (albeit on the road) against a similarly talent disparate team. Anyway, this long winded reasoning leads me to giving the Colts some benefit of the doubt.

Raiders 17  @  Colts 30  (IND -10)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @  New York Jets  (TB -4.5)

The Return of Revis! Somehow, it means nothing to me. I don't expect to watch a second of this game on Sunday. I guess the Jets are starting Geno Smith, but he's terrible. He was so awful on that game, so completely lost on the field. It was staggering to watch, really. Now, the Buccaneers don't have a great defense, but it is good enough to cause major problems. The bigger issue is the other side, the Jets defense against Tampa's offense. The Jets, even in last year, absolutely dominate any offense less than average. The Bucs are better than average on paper, but I don't trust Josh Freeman at all at this point. I can see the Jets defense playing really, really well in this game. Rex is coaching for his life, and he can't trust that QB. This line seems too high for an average team on the road as well.

Buccaneers 16  @  Jets 20  (NYJ +4.5)


Seattle Seahakws  @  Carolina Panthers  (SEA -4.5)

These two teams played last year in Carolina midseason. The Seahawks led 16-12 in the 4th quarter, with the Panthers driving. The Panthers faced a 4th and Goal and didn't convert, eventually losing by that score. What I'm trying to say is the Panthers came close to beating them last year. The Seahawks struggled last year in 1PM games on teh East, losing at Miami and Detroit, and I can see a similarly bad performance here. Bruce Irvin is missing, and the Seahawks are being pumped up a little too much right now for my liking. I can see them dropping week one and then the nation collectively reevaluating their Seahawk-love. Also, the Panthers defense is really well built to play the Seahawks offense. They can shut down taht run game. They have coverage linebackers that can contain the short passing. I really like the Panthers getting so many points at home against a good matchup for them.

Seahawks 20  @  Panthers 24  (CAR +4.5)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Cincinnati Bengals  @  Chicago Bears  (CHI -3.5)

Andy Dalton gets a nice little test for the season that can change the way we all view him. The Bears almost assuredly won't be the dominant defense they were last year, but they are still a fantastic defense on paper. What this game comes down to is how much can the short passing game orchestrated by Trestman-Cutler can get on that defense. The thing that disrupts Trestman's passing game (assuming it resembles what it was back in 2002 when he was the OC for Gannon's gnat attack) is quick pressure, and the combination of the Bengals dominant front and the Bears relatively weak line could spell doom for Cutler. The Bengals just match up really well against any team with anything less than a good O-Line. Geno Atkins, along with Dunlap, Johnson and all the rest, could dominate that matchup in the trenches. Add that to the fact that the Bears are the favorite(?), and this seems like an easy pick for me.

Bengals 24  @  Bears 17  (CIN +3.5)


Atlanta Falcons  @  New Orleans Saints  (NO -3)

Really tough game to pick here. Really tough. On one hand, the Falcons are still a more complete team than the Saints. Their offensive firepower is about as good adn their defense is still better despite their personnel losses in the offseason. On the other hand, the Saints are probably foaming at the mouth to play a game with Sean Payton as their head coach again. If we look to last year, the last time these two teams played, the Falcons picked off Brees 5 times and ended his TD streak. I don't think they do nearly as good against the Saints in this game, but I still like the Falcons to win this game. More than any pick, this is heart over head to some degree, but I just don't see the Saints returning to being a 13-3 team now that Sean Payton is back. For all of the bad things about Gregg Williams, his track record on defense is a whole lot better than Rob Ryan's.

Falcons 31  @  Saints 27  (ATL +3)


Arizona Cardinals  @  St. Louis Rams  (STL -4.5)

Big line for a team playing against a good, solid defensive team in Arizona. The Rams seem like the better team, but the wild card here is how Palmer does in Arians offense. If he can revive that offense, the Cardinals could be a real frisky team all year long. What scares me is that their first test is against one of the better D-Lines in the NFL. Quinn, Brockers and (especially) Chris Long could dominate the inferior Cardinals O-Lineman. On the other side, the Cardinals can do the same in a lot of ways to the Rams, but I have a little more trust in St. Louis to adjust and not be as bull-headed as Bruce Arians is with his system. This is a long way in saying that in the old-school game of the week, I think the team with lesser questionmarks win.

Cardinals 13  @  Rams 20  (STL -4.5)


Green Bay Packers  @  San Francisco 49ers  (SF -5)

Is this going to be a Week 1 tradition from now on? The Packers bookended their season to slightly humiliating losses to the 49ers. Obviously, the divisional loss to the 49ers was embarrassing enough, but even their Week 1 loss at home to the Alex Smith was quite bad. The 49ers front dominated the Packers lineman in both matchups. I can't see that really changing here. What I am worried about is if the Packers have figured out the 49ers offense. They weren't able to really stop it when it was Alex Smith leading a more conventional offense, and they had even less ability to stop the Kaepernick led offense. I can't see them giving up 45 points and 579 yard again, but I can see them holding it down enough. In the end, the line is low enough that I can pick the 49ers and be comfonrtable with them not having to have them blow out the Packers to still hit the bet, and that is what I am depending on.

Packers 21  @  49ers 30  (SF -5)


New York Giants  @  Dallas Cowboys  (DAL -3.5)

The Giants haven't lost in Cowboys Stadium yet. I love that stat. Now, three of the wins were in awesome games that came down to the wire. The first was the first ever game in Cowboys Stadium back in 2009 (remember the 'Other Steve Smith', he played a big part), and the second was the catalyst for the Giants 2011 Super Bowl run. Then was last year's win by a pinkie. Now, I have the Giants going 12-4, and the Cowboys not going near that, so I kind have to pick the Giants for now. My preseason projections won't impact my picks forever, but they do to a point in teh first few weeks. The Giants are extremely comfortable in that stadium. Maybe it is the fact that they get to wear their home blue. I love to see Jerry Jones steaming mad after losing another game to the Giants at home and I think we see it once again.

Giants 31  @  Cowboys 24  (NYG -3.5)


Philadelphia Eagles  @  Washington Redskins  (WAS -4.5)

I'm picking the Redskins to win and cover, but first a little reasoning on why I'm so down on the Eagles this year. I think Chip Kelly's offense is nice in theory, but is totally ill-fitting for the NFL. I have no doubt NFL teams can run a play each 15-20 seconds; hell, the Pats did it for a while last year. The problem is getting first downs. If they go three-and-out, they're giving the ball back to their opponent in a minute or two. That defense, which is awful, could get taxed quickly, forcing the Eagles to play catch up, which is hard to do in a run-first offense. I also don't think Michael Vick is the best QB to run this offense. These were the problems that Oregon ran into in their eventual losses, like the 2010 BCS National Championship loss to Auburn. I just don't think it works nearly as well as people are saying.

Eagles 17  @  Redskins 28  (WAS -4.5)


Houston Texans  @  San Diego Chargers  (HOU -5.5)

For the first time in many, many years, this late game isn't just one bad AFC West team at another. Instead, we get an AFC Power going to a middling AFC team. Still, that makes it far more watchable than previous versions of this 2nd MNF game. I definitely think the Texans are a far better team, but this is a tough game. I can see some good feelings going around the Chargers right now in Week 1. They should have a nice crowd, and I would love to see the Texans lose and then the world going crazy about their 0-1 start after their 1-4 finish to last season. Anyway, this is running really long, and while I may not have another chance to right somethign this long for a while (just to make a quick point, I will defintiely be making a single-pick piece for the TNF game) I'll just end it by saying that I will live or die with Philip Rivers this year.

Texans 23  @  Chargers  24  (SD +5.5)

NFL 2013: AFC Preview

AFC East

4.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-12

Lost: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Donald Jones, (DE) Chris Kelsay, (CB) Terrence McGee, (OLB) Nick Barnett, (WR) David Nelson, (G) Andy Levitre

Gained: (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Doug Legursky, (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Alan Branch

The hiring of Doug Marrone seemed a little strange. Here is an semi-unknown, semi-successful college coach getting a job in the NFL when many very successful and known college coaches have failed. But maybe that is the method in the Bills madness. After all, this guy was the Offensive Coordinator for the 2006 Saints. As for their immediate outlook, the Bills still seem to be stuck in that perenially 5-11 or 6-10 mode, with some nice pieces, no depth and few front-line players. Their hyped D-Line actually played decently well, but their steady secondary fell apart, something I can't see getting better. Their o-line also loses its best player in Levitre. Add in to that the fact that EJ Manuel, already probably overdrafted, has two fewer weapons than Fitzpatrick had (Nelson, Jones), and you get another long year in Buffalo.


3.) New York Jets  =  5-11

Lost: (CB) Darrelle Revis, (G) Matt Slauson, (DE) Mike DeVito, (RB) Shonn Greene, (ILB) Bart Scott, (S) LaRon Landry, (S) Yeremiah Bell, (NT) Sione Pouha

Gained: (NT) Antonio Garay, (RB) Chris Ivory, (OT) Willie Colon, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (S) Dawan Landry, (TE) Kellen Winslow Jr.

The greatest 'gain' for the Jets may not be on the field, but in Jeff Idzik, a man who can stand up to Rex Ryan. Ryan is a brilliant defensive strategist, but he did his best work with mostly Mangini's players (2009 & 2010 Jets), and as Rex guys came in that team went to hell. Of course, if they could have had a league average QB and league average receivers, they might be a playoff team. The talent (and the coaching) is still there, but the QB just isn't. Even if it isn't Sanchez, I can't see Geno Smith succeeding enough as a rookie for Rex to keep his job. It is a shame, because I really like most of their defensive pieces and the Jets will probably continue to outright dominate any marginal offense they face on that side of the ball. But when you add Sanchez/Smith with Chris Ivory as lead back and Santonio (off an ACL injury) and Stephen Hill, even if you have a potentially great O-Line, that is not nearly good enough.


2.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-7

Lost: (ILB) Karlos Dansby, (OT) Jake Long, (RB) Reggie Bush, (ILB) Kevin Burnett, (CB) Sean Smith

Gained: (WR) Mike Wallace, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (TE) Dustin Keller, (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Brent Grimes, (WR) Brandon Gibson

Everything really depends on Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins have a nice team around him, with a defense that transitioned just fine to the 4-3 (especially Cameron Wake, which had to be the biggest concern for them in that switch), and with Clabo, Keller and of course Mike Wallace, the offensive pieces around Ryan Tannehill are really good. What isn't though is Tannehill. Sure, he was a rookie, but I feel like people propped him up with his far superior fellow rookies. The guy had more interceptions than TDs with a y/a under 7. That is not exactly a good season even for a rookie. Can he raise his game? I'm sure it is possible, but I think for Tannehill, the jump to a playoff caliber QB is more likely to occur in 2014 than 2013.


1.) New England Patriots  =  11-5  (4-seed)

Lost: (TE) Mr. Alleged Homicidal Maniac, (WR) Wes Welker, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (G) Donald Thomas, (S) Patrick Chung, (WR) Brandon Lloyd, (DE) Kyle Love

Gained: (DT) Tommy Kelly, (WR) Danny Amendola, (QB) Tim Tebow

Well, that was a most un-Patriots like offseason ever. And to remember when it was just about their rookie corner's felony assault trail (yeah, that happened). Here we are, and here the Patriots are, missing their second TE, their two starting receivers from last year, and with spare parts and injury reclamations to replace them, along with Danny Amendola. If Rob Gronkowski misses any serious time they could be in real trouble. I'll assume he doesn't for this (all accounts are without further setbacks he'll be back soon enough), and say that the Patriots are still the best team in the division, but they are damn fortunate they are in the AFC and not the loaded NFC. They can't have Brady's performance from 2006 (the last time his weapons were this mediocre) and expect to go anywhere, because the 2006 Patriots had the league's 3rd best defense. Some may say the Patriots defense is getting better, I will say it is still decidedly average. Their run game should pick up some of the slack, but predicting anything more than an 11-win season is putting more trust in Belichick than even I want to give. Of course, I have been way off on New England before (2010 season).


AFC North

4.) Cleveland Browns  =  5-11

Lost: (DE) Frostee Rucker, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (TE) Ben Watson, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs

Gained: (OLB) Paul Kruger, (DE) Quentin Groves, (TE) Kellen Davis, (QB) Jason Campbell, (CB) Chris Owens, (WR) Davon Bess

The Browns seemed to have a much louder offseason than they really have, as their only real FA acquisition that can really help the team in the short term is Kruger. They had a nice draft, I guess, but I generally think rookies really altering a team's one-season outlook is more the exception than the rule. Mike Lombardi will probably use this year as a full try-out season, starting with Weeden, and there is a lot to sift through. The O-Line is mostly set, as is the defense, but switching to a 3-4 seems like a horrible idea. It doesn't really fit the good Browns defenders already there (Jabaal Sheard, specifically, seems like a man without a country right now). It is easy to say good things are coming because they have a new owner and management team, but the owner is the CEO of a company currently under Federal Investigation, and their GM is a guy who most Football Fans know to be a babbling stooge, so I can't really be that kind.


3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-7

Lost: (ILB) Ray Lewis, (S) Ed Reed, (OLB) Paul Kurger, (CB) Cary Williams, (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB), (C) Matt Birk, (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (FB) Vonta Leach

Gained: (OLB) Elvis Dumervil, (DT) Chris Canty, (ILB) Daryl Smith, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Marcus Spears, (S) Michael Huff

The 2013 Ravens will not resemble the 2012 Ravens at all. Obviously, Ray and Ed are gone, but so is Pollard (hope they don't get the Pats in the playoffs without their Pats killer - not to confused with Aaron Hernandez a Pat Killer), Paul Kruger, Cary Williams and Dannell Ellerbe. They are replacing more than half their defense, yet their defense could be better. All of their replacements, when healthy, are good players. They were lucky to have Dumervil fall into their lap, but he and a healthy Terrell Suggs should replicated what Paul Kruger and a unhealthy Suggs did in 2012. Offense is the big issue for me with Baltimore. First of all, their offense wasn't all that great last year. They were great in the playoffs because Anquan Boldin decided to play as well as he has in five years and Dennis Pitta 'made the leap'. Of course, Boldin is gone and Pitta is gone, leaving Joe Flacco where he was back in 2009-10, with just one trusted receiver to throw to. I like their being proactive and getting Stokley and Clark, but that's not nearly what they are replacing. That division is tough and schedule is tougher. Add it all up and I think the Ravens miss the playoffs for the first time in the Flacco/Harbaugh era.


2.) Cincinnati Bengals  = 11-5 (5)

Lost: (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Pat Sims, (CB) Jason Allen

Gained: (OLB) James Harrison

It is hard to believe that this will be Marvin Lewis' 10th year in charge of the Bengals. 10 years without just four playoff appearances and nary a playoff win. Of course, this team is headed in the right direction and has a really bright future, so it would be the wrong time to fire him. There is one question mark though, and that is Dalton. At some point, we have to wonder if this is the best Dalton gets. He really got no better in his second season and was not good down the stretch. He has enough to throw to and a decent O-Line and a more than decent running game. Everything is there, and if Dalton takes that next step, they can really start to challenge for AFC North supremacy soon. I am predicting them to take another step up to 11-5. That defense is incredibly stacked at every level, and their backups are about as good as a few teams starters. If young guys like Dre Kirkpatrick take another step up, this could be the best defense in the NFL. Their offense just needs to do what it did last year, or maybe improve like 5%. If they can solidify their receiver position across from Green, that team could really be the top team in the AFC for the next ten years.

 
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  12-4  (2)

Lost: (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OLB) James Harrison, (WR) Mike Wallace, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (S) Ryan Mundy, (OT) Willie Colon, (G) Doug Legursky

Gained: (CB) William Gay, (OT) Guy Whimper

Since 2000, the Steelers have done an interesting cycle. They miss the playoffs every three years ('00, '03, '06, 09, '12) and make the playoffs in all the years in between. Their records in the year immediately after missing the playoffs: 13-3, 15-1, 10-6, 12-4, and in that 10-6 year, they started 10-4 before resting everyone the last two weeks. A lot of my Steelers prediction is simply blind faith in the LeBeau University Pipeline. The Steelers had a lot of aging defensive players last year and those guys are mostly gone. In pure Steelers fashion the replacements are there, they just need to play well. The Steelers season comes down to whether Ziggy Hood, Cameron Heyward, Steve McClendon, Cortez Allen and either Jason Worilds or Jarvis Jones can replace Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, Keenan Lewis and James Harrison adequately. I think they can, for the most part. I also still like that offense without Mike Wallace, as that O-Line cannot possibly be ridiculously injured once again, and with their run game more settled that offense can actually be quite good. Trends and hopes, that is what my Steelers prediction is based on, but in a way all of these are.


AFC South

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  3-13

Lost: (OLB) Daryl Smith, (S) Dawan Landry, (CB) Aaron Ross, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (WR) Laurent Robinson, (RB) Rashad Jennings

Gained: (OLB) Geno Hayes, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks

I've seen a weird trend in my recent predictions for teams with new coaches in that I always feel like they will bottom out with the new coach in year 1, instead of taking a small boost up with a new coach. Of course, that was also true of the 2012 Jaguars, who went 3-13 with first year coach Mike Mularkey. I still don't think the team is any good, especially after losing three decent players on defense (Daryl Smith, Landry and Knighton), and replacing them with lesser players (Geno Hayes, Marks). Of course, they still employ - and plan to start - Blaine Gabbert. Sure, there are layers that struggled early and ended up good, but almost no one struggled to the level of Gabbert and ended up a good player. Personally, I think they play this year out with Gabbert, get another really high pick and select Teddy Bridgewater or someone. 


3.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-11

Lost: (G) Steve Hutchinson, (TE) Jared Cook, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks

Gained: (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (TE) Delanie Walker, (G) Andy Levitre, (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick

How is Mike Munchak really still they're coach? The Titans have bled talent since Fisher left after 2009 and while they still have some nice fantasy pieces (I can see a big comeback season for Chris Johnson), and had a decent offseason with getting the best guard on the market, and getting known Patriots killer Bernard Pollard. It comes down to the prospect of Jake Locker improving or not. He was simply not very good in 2012, with a Gabbert-esque 74.0 QB rating, and 56.4% completion percentage and more INTs than TDs. I actually didn't realize he was 'that' bad in 2012. In his defense he doesn't have much to work with, but the Titans need a Jake Locker that might never be there. The real issue for the Titans is their absolutely horrible defense in 2012. They had bad special teams luck, so their league-worst points allowed is probably extreme, but they just don't have any legitimate pro-bowl type player on that defense. The schedule is light, but in my mind that makes them a decidedly below average team instead of a terrible one.


2.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-8

Lost: (DE) Dwight Freeney, (WR) Donnie Avery, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (S) Tom Zbikowski

Gained: (G) Donald Thomas, (CB) Greg Toler, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Erik Walden, (DT) Ricky-Jean Francois, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) LaRon Landry

The Colts can be a better team and 2012 and still have an 8-8 record. They really were a 6-10 or 7-9 team that lucked (literally and figuratively) their way into an 11-5 record. They set records for best record in one score games, and Luck led an NFL-high 7 game winning drives. They went out and spend a boatload of money because they had enough to spend (even more next year), but the question remains if they spent it wisely. It has to be said that every new Colts FA acquisition is better than the person they replaced (the only debatable one is Erik Walden relacing Dwight Freeney). If they can stay healthy, Landry and Toler can make a huge weakness into at least a competent secondary. Donald Thomas and Gosder Cherilus could make that line competent. The problem is that defense still has no real identity, and some of the good luck that went their way won't. The Colts always had injuries, but they were remarkably healthy at WR in 2012. If Wayne (or Hilton) gets hurt, Luck may have issues. The Colts have a really bright future, but their 2013 probably won't be where it starts. That will be 2014, and if the Free Agents work, for many years after that.


1.) Houston Texans  =  12-4  (3)

Lost: (S) Glover Quin, (OLB) Connor Barwin

Gained: (S) Ed Reed, (P) Shane Lechler

There is still no reason the Texans have to take a step back. I feel that the Texans ended the season so badly last year that people assume they were really like a 10-6 team that somehow won 12 games. I still think they are quite a bit ahead of the Colts. Matt Schaub was hurt late last year, and their O-Line was as well. Fix those two things and this is a great team once again. JJ Watt can't possibly be that good again, but with Brian Cushing back for hopefully the whole season, and a healthier season with Jonothan Joseph should still allow the Texans to be a Top-10 defense. At the end, they have an easy schedule. They do draw Baltimore, Denver and New England, but they also have their own division, Arizona, St. Louis and the rest of the AFC West. 12-4 is probably their peak, but I'll go with their peak once more. Of course, the Texans have failed me in the past (look at my 2012 preview), but the Texans are still one of the most talented teams in the NFL.


AFC West

4.) Oakland Raiders  =  3-13

Lost: (QB) Carson Palmer, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (DT) Tommy Kelly, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (S) Mike Mitchell, (TE) Brandon Myers, (S) Michael Huff

Gained: (QB) Matt Flynn, (CB) Tracy Porter, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs, (OLB) Nick Roach, (OLB) Kevin Burnett, (RB) Rashad Jennings

For someone coming from Green Bay, Reggie McKenzie was really active in signing free agents. Now, he did it in a smart way, giving a bunch of 'wily old veterans' one or two year deals, basically as capable placeholders till he gets some draft picks to replace him. He went scorched earth with the remaining Davis guys which is fine, but losing Palmer, Heyward-Bey, Kelly, Shaughnessy, Brandon Myers and Michael Huff is quite a bit to replace. Some of the new guys are decent, but they have no pass rush, average guys in the secondary, and few weapons for Matt Flynn, who I assume will be their QB. The Raiders are moving in the right direction, finally cutting away the Al Davis years. I should note that Al Davis, almost seeing his death coming, actually managed to make the Raiders talented enough to probably have been the best team in the AFC West in 2010, but it never worked out. McKenzie did what he had to do, and these could be some lean years. It will be interesting to see if he holds onto Dennis Allen if the Raiders go 3-13 or 4-12.


3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  6-10

Lost: (OT) Eric Winston, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (CB) Javier Arenas, (WR) Steve Breaston, (G) Ryan Lilja, (QB) Matt Cassel

Gained: (CB) Dunta Robinson, (QB) Alex Smith, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike DeVito, (WR) Donnie Avery

Sometimes narratives don't die. I am guilty of this - just look at my constantly over-optimistic Giants predictions, but there is an interesting thing going on with the Chiefs. Coming into the 2012 season, they were a trendy Wild Card sleeper pick because of Jamaal Charles returning and Romeo Crennel's defense playing better. Well, those things happened. Charles had a great year, the defense had a decent year, and they went 2-14. Now, because Andy Reid comes in, with Alex Smith replacing Matt Cassel (an upgrade, sure, but not a huge one), people are predicting the same things. They also lost some pieces. I do think they will be better because Andy Reid is a better coach than Romeo Crennel and because Alex Smith is better than Matt Cassel, but they aren't my sleeper playoff candidate. That team is coming up.


2.) San Diego Chargers  =  10-6  (6)

Lost: (G) Louis Vasquez, (NT) Antonio Garay, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (OT) Jared Gaither, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DE) Shaun Phillips

Gained: (CB) Antoine Cason, (CB) Derek Cox, (DE) Dwight Freeney, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (T) Max Starks

Boom. The Chargers. The AFC is so lean right now that one of these seemingly bad teams will make the playoffs. I'm going with the Chargers. What makes me nervous is that they lost some good players, but I like their pickups. Derek Cox is still a good corner, Dwight Freeney came on late last year and could do better in their scheme. Danny Woodhead should do great in that offense playing the role Darren Sproles used to. Philip Rivers just can't be that bad again, can he? That is what this pick comes down to. If Philip Rivers gets to close to what he was from 2008-2010 (in which time he was definitely one of the three best QBs in the NFL in those three years), with the Chargers easy schedule they could make some hay in the AFC.


1.) Denver Broncos  =  13-3  (1)

Lost: (DE) Elvis Dumervil, (OLB) DJ Williams, (CB) Tracy Porter, (RB) Willis McGahee

Gained: (WR) Wes Welker, (G) Louis Vasquez, (OLB) Shaun Phillips, (CB) Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (ILB) Stewart Bradley

I pegged them at 12-4 last year, losing the AFC Championship to Houston. Well, they did something like that in 2012. The loss of Dumervil is big, but I like them replacing him with Shaun Phillips (which was making the best out of a bad, crazy situation). I just loved their offseason. Everyone they picked up make sense. Louis Vasquez is one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL. Terrance Knighton is still a good run stuffer. DRC, on a one-year deal, is perfect in the way they play that defense, and Jammer is a nice piece to transition from safety to corner and back. There are two big questions right now. 1 - what if Miller is suspended. That story came and went and now there is a chance no suspension comes, but if it is the first four games it could be OK, but what if it is only resolved later in the season? and 2 - what if Decker or Thomas goes down. Both stayed remarkably healthy in 2012, and while Welker is a great insurance policy to a potential injury, they are best as a trio. Those aren't really huge problems (save for Miller, if he misses, say the New England game), but for a team that on paper is easily the best in the AFC, those little things can derail a potentially dominant team.


AFC Wild Card Round

(6) Chargers defeat (3) Texans  24-21
(5) Bengals defeat (4) Patriots  27-20


AFC Divisional Round

(1) Broncos defeat (6) Chargers  38-17
(2) Steelers defeat (5) Bengals  23-17


AFC Championship Game

(1) Broncos defeat (2) Steelers  24-16


Super Bowl XLVIII

(A1) Broncos defeat (N1) Giants  31-19

NFL 2013: NFC preview

NFC East

4.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  4-12

Lost: (LB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike Patterson, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (DT) Derek Landri, (DT) Cullen Jenkins

Gained: (CB) Cary Williams, (S) Kenny Phillips, (OLB) Connor Barwin, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (RB) Felix Jones

There is a lot of hype around the Eagles, mainly centering around the fact that Chip Kelly has come on board. Personally, I don't really understand the ridiculous amount of hype and optimism surrounding this move. Chip Kelly is famous for his up-tempo offense, but that offense has struggled against good defenses over the years, like in the 2010 National Title Game against Auburn, or their loss last year to Stanford. We've never seen any of the 'offensive genius' college head coaches succeed in the NFL yet. I'm going with the safer bet that he won't. The team lost a lot of defensive talent, and while Connor Barwin is a nice picup, I don't trust the decision to switch to the 3-4. A lot of their players will be misplaced in that defense. Finally, their offense is really lacking talent in many areas. Who are their dependable receivers? Who are their top lineman? Most importantly, what is the QB plan if (and more realistically, when) Vick goes down? Too many questions in a tough division.


3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  6-10

Lost: (DT) Victor Butler, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (RB) Felix Jones, (DE) Marcus Spears, (ILB) Dan Conner, (S) Gerald Sesabaugh

Gained: (S) Will Allen, (OLB) Justin Durant

Tony Romo quietly had a very good season in 2012, with some good clutch 4th quarter performances. Of course, his last pass was a bad pick against the Redskins which cost the Cowboys the chance of tying that play-in Week 17 game. While their offense should still be good with a close to dominant Dez Bryant and a better o-line than it has been in years, the reason I don't like the Cowboys is simply what they are doing to that defense. They had one trump card on defense, which was Demarcus Ware. Well, with a switch to a Tampa-2 type defense, coordinated by an ancient Monte Kiffin, might limit Ware. It might limit a lot of people on that defense. Sean Lee could thrive if he stays healthy, but going to a Tampa-2 from whatever Rob Ryan was attempting to do is quite a change, and I don't think it works.


2.) Washington Redskins  =  7-9

Lost: No One of Note

Gained: (WR) Devery Henderson, (DE) Daryl Tapp, (CB) E.J. Biggers

So, the Redskins are bringing back essentially everyone from their dream 10-6 season which ended with seven straight wins before their Wild Card loss to Seattle. Of course, the biggest impact to the Redskins season could be what happened during that game, when Robert Griffin III completely tore his ACL. RGIII's rehab is going well, but with a player like him, who's running ability makes that offense work, a reconstructed knee is a big problem. So is the fact that defenses just have to play the pistol/read-option better this year than they did last (a common theme for a few of my preseason predictions). They have the pieces around RGIII, but they probably overachieved to 10-6 a year ago, taking advantage of a injury plagued Giants team and some fortunate wins to steal the division. The defense is decent, but there's age. If Brian Orakpo comes back healthy, that pass rush should get better, but their secondary is still problematic. Overall, I'm down on the Redskins. Of course, I picked them to lose six of their seven games during that season ending win streak.


1.) New York Giants  =  12-4  (1-Seed)

Lost: (DT) Chris Canty, (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) Kenny Phillips, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OLB) Michael Boley, (ILB) Chase Blackburn

Gained: (DT) Cullen Jenkins, (ILB) Dan Conner, (WR) Louis Murphy, (DT) Mike Patterson, (OLB) Aaron Curry, (S) Ryan Mundy

Yeah, I'm buying into them again. I don't know why I keep doing this. I picked them to go 13-3 in 2010, 11-5 in 2011 (with losing the NFC Title Game, so at least I saw a nice playoff run) and 12-4 last year. All three were wrong. Only the 2011 pick came close. Still, I like this team once again. Nicks and Cruz can't possibly be as injured again. I love the addition of Brandon Myers at TE. I love the addition of Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson to that D-Line, which should get bounce back seasons from Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants always look good on paper, and end up disappointing with a 2nd half swoon. With their late season schedule (vs.GB, @WAS, @SD, vs.SEA) in a five week span late, it could happen, but once again I'll say it won't.


NFC North

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-11

Lost: (CB) Antoine Winfield, (WR) Michael Jenkins, (WR) Percy Harvin, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley

Gained: (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (QB) Matt Cassel, (G) Seth Olsen

The Vikings had a great draft at least right now. The Vikings also have Adrian Peterson, who is a man amongst little children at the running back position. But they really had a tough offseason, losing their only good outside weapon in Harvin, a corner who had a great year in Winfield, and they didn't really get better in free agency. Another problem is they still have Christian Ponder. Of course, he could get better, but the pieces around him aren't really helping that cause. Once again, they still have Adrian Peterson, but people who rush for 2,000 years generally don't approach that number the following season, and remember that during his historically good 8 game stretch late in the season, the Vikings went just 4-4. Combine a tough division and you get a fall-back season, especially with a defense that depends on aging stars like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams.


3.) Chicago Bears  =  7-9

Lost: (ILB) Brian Urlacher, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (DE) Israel Idonije, (OLB) Nick Roach, (TE) Matt Spaeth, (G) Chilo Rachal, (TE) Kellen Davis

Gained: (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (OLB) James Anderson, (S) Tom Zbikowski, (G) Eben Britton, (G) Matt Slauson, (DT) Andre Fluellen

They lost a lot of people, but they replaced a lot of them adequately. However, what they didn't replace was losing Lovie Smith, a firing that I thought was totally reactionary and hasty. That defense was special for most of the 2012 season, and I fear a massive step back. It is already hard for them to repeat the defensive scoring production they got last season, and a lot of their players are older. As for the offense, they should have the best o-line they've had since getting Cutler, and I was a fan of Marc Trestman's offense with Rich Gannon in Oakland, but Gannon's dink-and-dunk West Coast offense isn't an ideal fit for Cutler. The division doesn't help any, and without their old coach and old leader (Urlacher) I think the Bears, instead of starting strong and disappointing late, will just disappoint.


2.) Detroit Lions  =  10-6  (5)

Lost: (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Kyle Vanden Bosch, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Justin Durant, (CB) Drayton Florence, (OT) Jeff Backus, (K) Jason Hanson

Gained: (RB) Reggie Bush, (G) Jake Scott, (DE) Israel Idonije, (DT) Jason Jones, (S) Glover Quin

This is probably my first "Huh?" pick, predicting a Lions team that went 4-12 in 2012 to make the playoffs. There are a lot of signs that the Lions should do better. First, they were far better than a 4-12 team, as they started 4-4, then lost their last eight. Five of those eight losses came after the Lions had fourth quarter leads, which probably won't happen again. The Lions lost some key veteran players, but I like the additions of Idonije and Jones in a Jim Schwartz defense. I love the move to get Reggie Bush, giving Stafford a reliable checkdown weapon, and Glover Quin should help that back end be anything but awful. Calvin Johnson is still Calvin Johnson and at the end of the day, that team was and still is more talented than 4-12. 2012 was a year when everything went wrong, this year I think some of it goes right.


1.) Green Bay Packers  =  12-4  (2)

Lost: (WR) Greg Jennings, (S) Charles Woodson, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Desmond Bishop, (OLB) Erik Walden, (WR) Donald Driver

Gained: No one, like always.

The Packers got another stellar season from Aaron Rodgers, a breakout season from Randall Cobb, a bounceback season from Clay Matthews, and somehow lost four more games in 2012 than they did the year before. At some point, Aaron Rodgers will be simply great instead of inhuman, and losing Greg Jennings could hurt that team, but I liked the draft picks of Eddie Lacy and Anthony Franklin. Of course, what makes a run game work even more is good lineman, which they don't really have. Their defense has good young players, and I think will improve even more. Combine a better defense (I really like Cam Heyward at CB) and an offense that shouldn't get too much worse, and you get a team that will do what the Packers should do every year: go around 12-4, and compete for a one-seed and the Super Bowl.


NFC South

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-11

Lost: (OT) Jeremy Trueblood, (WR) Arrelious Benn, (DE) Michael Bennett, (CB) E.J. Biggers, (CB) Ronde Barber

Gained: (S) Dashon Goldson, (DT) Derek Landri, (OT) Gabe Carimi, (CB) Darrelle Revis, (WR) Kevin Ogletree

The Buccaneers had a nice offseason. They nabbed the NFL's best corner (who has to be healthy, but that is a questionmark), a good, solid safety in Goldson, and another nice weapon for Josh Freeman in Ogletree. Of course, that last name is the issue. Josh Freeman. After a great 2010 season, we've seen two straight subpar years. Freeman and Vincent Jackson had a nice connection, but Freeman was mostly garbage throwing to anyone else late last season. Freeman hasn't improved at all over the last few years, and at some point you reach a time when it is clear he just won't at all. That defense still has major holes that weren't really filled at linebacker (outside of Lavonte David) and lineman (outside of Gerald McCoy), and if Revis isn't what Revis was pre-ACL injury, that secondary is once again a mess. It will be interesting if they do fail to compete in 2013 if Schiano is given the quick pass he was given after a disappointing season in 2012.


3.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-8

Lost: (OT) Jermon Bushrod, (DT) Sedrick Ellis, (RB) Chris Ivory

Gained: (DE) Victor Butler, (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OT) Jason Smith, (S) Jim Leohnard

There are two schools of thought around the Saints. The first is that we should write off 2012 due to Payton's bounty-gate absence and the Saints will be in 2013 what they were in 2011. The other is that 2012 Saints showed flaws that haven't gone away and flaws that the return of Sean Payton can't absorb away. I'm in the latter camp. We have seen a Sean Payton led Saints team miss the playoffs. In fact, we've seen it twice. The Saints arguably had more talent in those seasons than they have now. Drew Brees ended up with another monstrous season statistically, but he threw a lot of bad picks, something that he does when he gets pressured and doesn't have a reliable run game. Well, with Carl Nicks still not replaced and his previous starting center and left tackle missing, and without any new solution to the ills of the run game, that could easily repeat itself in 2013. Then there is getting Rob Ryan, who's resume is built almost solely off his last name and the 2006 Raiders defense, which had the good fortune of playing with the 2006 Raiders offense. That offense was so bad teams didn't have to try on offense against the Raiders, making their defense statistically good. All other Rob Ryan defense: statistically average to terrible.


2.) Atlanta Falcons  =  10-6  (6)

Lost: (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Chris Owens, (DE) John Abraham, (CB) Dunta Robinson, (C) Todd McClure, (CB) Brent Grimes

Gained: (DE) Osi Umenyiora, (RB) Steven Jackson

That is a pretty lopsided 'Lost vs. Gained' section. The Falcons lost six contributors, including their best (and basically only consistent) source of pass rush, two of their three best corners, two of their lineman (and two guys that had been there for Matt Ryan's entire career), and offset those losses with a pass rusher who looked one step slower in 2012 in Osi and Steven Jackson, who is still quite good but is getting up there in mileage. The Falcons had a dream season in 2012, and if not for a Matt Ryan bobbled snap or Harry Douglas' ability to stay on his feet with an open field ahead of him, they make the Super Bowl. The Falcons have had some great seasons recently, but never back to back, and I think that continues. That offense is still fearsome, but their defense was usually good enough to pull out some games when Matt Ryan was having average days. I don't think they are that good anymore.


1.) Carolina Panthers  =  10-6  (4)

Lost: (OLB) James Anderson, (CB) Chris Gamble

Gained: (CB) Drayton Florence, (WR) Tedd Ginn, (WR) Dominek Hixon, (S) Mike Mitchell, (ILB) Chase Blackburn

No team has ever repeated as NFC South champs since the creation of the division in 2012. I don't think many realize, but the Panthers ended up 2nd in the NFC last year, quietly sweeping the Saints. The Panthers ended strongly partly because the schedule got easier, but also because of improvements on either side of hte ball. Luke Kuechly's move inside unleashed a monster and that front seven dominated. Then, Cam stopped throwing picks and that offense started resembling what was a fascinating offense in 2011. Their running backs alternate disappointing and awesome games, and I think they'll have more of the latter in 2013. I like the additions on defense for a team that just needs average production from their secondary. Why not the Panthers?


NFC West

4.) Arizona Cardinals  =  5-11

Lost: (S) Adrian Wilson, (ILB) Stewart Bradley, (CB) Greg Toler, (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Adam Snyder, (DE) Quentin Groves, (CB) William Gay, (RB) Beanie Wells

Gained: (QB) Carson Palmer, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (CB) Antoine Cason, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (ILB) Jasper Brinkley, (S) Yeremiah Bell

The Cardinals actually got better in my opinion at many areas. But the division as a whole did, and I thin that adds up to a static change in terms of wins. Carson Palmer, despite his regression from his peak, is staggeringly better than Ryan Lindley/John Skelton. Larry Fitzgerald might go back to being a great receiver with a competent QB. That defense has some special pieces, and while Darnell Docket finally seemed his age, Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson got better. That defense could really utilize their new additions (Bell, Shaughnessy, Brinkley) to make it an even better unit. In any other division, this team approaches .500, but the NFC West is just so tough right now.


3.) St. Louis Rams  =  8-8

Lost: (WR) Danny Amendola, (RB) Steven Jackson, (S) Craig Dahl, (S) Quintin Mikell, (WR) Brandon Gibson

Gained: (OT) Jake Long, (TE) Jared Cook

The Rams ended up 7-8-1 last season, going 4-1-1 in the division, which is staggering. They finally gave Sam Bradford some weapons in Jared Cook and drafting two of the top receivers in the draft. Adding Jake Long is nice as well, because Bradford has often had to endure some awful blocking. That defense was very good in all the things Jeff Fisher defenses are always good in, namely getting to the QB and playing press coverage. They still have the corners and rushers to do that, and if Chris Long and more so Robert Quinn take another step up, they can have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Again, in any other division, this team could make the playoffs, while in the NFC West, if they can improve slightly on that 7-8-1 record and strike. 500 for the first time since 2006, that will be a good year.


2.) Seattle Seahawks  =  10-6

Lost: (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Jason Jones

Gained: (WR) Percy Harvin, (CB) Antoine Winfield, (DE) Cliff Avril, (DE) Michael Bennett

Them's the advantages of having a 3rd round rookie as your QB and the contract that comes with such a draft selection. The Seahawks have built an awesome team. So, why then am I picking them to not make the playoffs and lose more games? Because I still don't truly trust Russell Wilson. I still think if he's forced to run a pass-first offense that team could struggle. I also don't trust Percy Harvin to stay healthy all year long. That pass rush also slowed late last season, and while they got some interesting pass rushers, none of them are individually great players. The other reason is they have a really tough schedule, with drawing the good NFC South and the Giants, added onto their own division.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  11-5  (3)

Lost: (S) Dashon Goldson, (NT) Isaac Sopoaga, (TE) Delanie Walker, (QB) Alex Smith, (WR) Tedd Ginn

Gained: (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB) Nnamdi Asomugha, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (K) Phil Dawson

I have no idea why I like the 49ers to retain their position and not the Seahawks. In fact, I'm already reconsidering it, but I'm not going to back off my stance. There are a lot of holes to pick with the 49ers, like the rehab of Michael Crabtree, or the loss of veteran defenders like Goldson and Sopoaga, to the lack of any real backup plan if Kaepernick gets hurt, but I don't think any of it will matter too much. Their defense is still great, their offense is still able to play any type of style (they didn't even become a primarily read-option type team until the playoffs), and I trust Jim Harbaugh to get the most out of that team. The NFC West is extremely competitive, and while 11-5 would technically be a worse record, in a way, maintaining their 11 wins would be really impressive.


NFC Wild Card Round

(6) Falcons defeat (3) 49ers  23-20
(4) Panthers defeat (5) Lions  34-17


NFC Divisional Round

(1) Giants defeat (6) Falcons  24-17
(4) Panthers defeat (2) Packers  30-24


NFC Championship Game

(1) Giants defeat (4) Panthers  27-24

My Thoughts on Breaking Bad 5-12

A slower hour of Breaking Bad where there is one major plot development. Despite the fact that I pretty much predicted it, I don't know exactly how I feel about the Jesse & Hank tag team.

• Breaking Bad, somewhere between the introduction of Gus, changed from being a brilliantly plodding buddy drama to a minutely constructed frantic chase. The show has always spent hours and hours detailing the minutiae of everything from breakfast to catching a fly in a lab to cooking meth. It still does delve into the dreary minute-by-minute existence of Walt and Co.'s lives, that is now the breaks between the madness. This was the break, and because of the shortened season, probably the last break we get. There was nothing frantic in this episode. There was no cliffhanger (there was, but it wasn't close to the previous three). There was no argumentative confrontation other than a brief phone conversation. It was classic Breaking Bad, in the way that made it a classic and not the way it made it brilliant.
• I'll start last first, I have a couple of theories of what Walt could use Todd's Uncle for other than offing Jesse. The first is the other obvious target: Hank. It comes down to who Walt feels slightly more connection to: Hank or Jesse, and since I think Walt is smart enough to know that Hank is behind Jesse finally flipping on him, he might go for Hank. The other is a little more out there: himself, to fake his death. I still believe that when he comes back to Albuquerque in the flash-forward (the infamous 'Hello, Carol' scene) the city believes he is dead. That's why he's been outed. I don't know why Walt would use that card now, so it is less likely, but I just don't want Walt to use the Neo-Nazi to kill Jesse.
• As for Jesse, the most revealing part of his interrogation with Hank is that he still respects the intelligence of Walter White. Although he knows how reckless Walt is, he still respects him enough to warn Hank that Walt is smarter than Hank, and still refers to Walt as 'Mr. White'. This respect is the only reason he reacts to the brooding bald guy enough to run away and essentially give himself up. All roads are leading to Jesse getting killed. I don't want to see it, but I have to think there is about an 80% chance of it happening.
• I don't think Skylar's immersion into being as cold and calculating as Walt himself hasn't been investigated enough. Wasn't it only the first half of Season 5 where Skylar is cavalierly smoking in the house, telling Walt that she is 'waiting for the cancer to die', and just about four or five months later (in BB world), she is upset that Walt didn't kill Jesse? Seems a little bit fast, especially since three of those months were glossed over in the Season 5.1 finale. Either way, seeing Skylar coldly telling Walt to 'deal' with Jesse was about as stunning as seeing Marie telling Walt to repeatedly kill himself.
• I have to think that the various chemicals that Marie has researched plays some sort of role down the line. That was too big and too odd of a scene to be used only in isolation. Also, I was wondering what the legal position the therapist would be in if Marie admitted that Walt was a meth cook and a murderer?

I didn't really have a lot to say about this episode. It was necessary, it was really good, but just praising the inventive cinematography and visual inventiveness isn't really compelling writiing. Breaking Bad is almost over and I'm quite sad about that. Instead of talking more about Breaking Bad, I'm going to write a short piece about another show that is almost over.