NFL 2012: Week 16 Power Rankings & the Rest

Interesting week. So, I was able to successfully avoid finding out what went on until after my finals ended, and now that I'm all caught up (post-multiple heart attacks near the end of that crazy 49ers-Patriots game), I'm getting this thing done.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Bengals (-4.5)  over  Eagles  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)
Saints (-3.5)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  2-0  =  +1000)
Rams (-3)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  2-1  =  -1000)
Jaguars (+7)  over  Dolphins  (WRONG  =  2-2  =  -1000)
Browns (+3)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  2-3  =  -1000)
Texans (-8.5)  over  Colts  (CORRECT  =  3-3  =  +1000)
Broncos (-2.5)  over  Ravens  (CORRECT  =  4-3  =  +1000)  (LOCK)
Giants (+1.5)  over  Falcons  (WRONG  =  4-4  =  -1000)
Bears (+3)  over  Packers  (WRONG  =  4-5  =  -1000)  (UPSET)
Panthers (+3)  over  Chargers  (CORRECT  =  5-5  =  +1000)
Raiders (-3.5*)  over  Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  6-5  =  +1000)
Cardinals (+6)  over  Lions  (CORRECT  =  7-5  =  +1000)
Seahawks (-5.5)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  8-5  =  +1000)
Steelers (-1.5)  over  Cowboys  (WRONG  =  8-6  =  -1000)
49ers (+5.5)  over  Patriots  (CORRECT  =  9-6  =  +1000)
Jets (+1.5)  over  Titans  (WRONG  =   9-7  =  -1000)


Week 16: 9-7; +2000  (UPSET: 0-1;  LOCK: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 125-92-7  (+32,600)  (UPSET: 9-6;  LOCK: 12-3)

Best Picks: The only thing remotely close was my pick of the Texans over the Colts 31-17, and they won 29-17.


Power Rankings

AFC


2013 Isn't too Far Away


16.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-12  =  195-367)

That was just depressing, and the Romeo Crennel era is going to have a slow, down-trodden, end.


15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-12  =  219-838)

That was just depressing, and the Mike Mularkey era is starting with a slow, down-trodden year.


14.) Oakland Raiders  (4-10  =  263-402)

Has there ever been a more surprising shutout ever? The Raiders had given up 31 points per game coming into that game, and just dominated the Chiefs.


13.) Buffalo Bills  (5-9  =  306-402)

Another horrible performance in Toronto. The only good to come out of that is Toronto will want this team less and less.


12.) New York Jets  (6-8  =  255-320)

That ended the least-inspiring playoff chase ever, and thankfully that might end the Mark Sanchez era. Right now, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are all just fuming that they once lost playoff games to teams QBed by Mark Sanchez.


11.) Tennessee Titans  (5-9  =  285-396)

A decent win for a team that is probably close to maxing out its wins for the year. The Titans have become the new old Jaguars, where I am totally confused how they ended up with 5 wins.


10.) San Diego Chargers  (5-9  =  299-312)

They still have barely been outscored for the year, but that was just a terrible performance at home, and probably the lowering of the coffin of Norv Turner's career.


9.) Cleveland Browns  (5-9  =  280-310)

Tough loss, but losing to Kirk Cousins' led Redskins team is a little surprising for a team that had been competitive in every game so far. Very surprising to see them fall so flat.


8.) Miami Dolphins  (6-8  =  264-279)

Another Jekyll-and-Hyde performance by the Dolphins, who just dominated the Jaguars like a mediocre team should. The next step is what they do next year.


They'll Be There, but They'll be Frauds.

7.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-5  =  348-307)

The amazing thing is if the Colts and Ravens win just one game each, they'll face each other, meaning that either the Ravens or the Colts will be in the Divisional Round (which should make folks in Houston very, very happy). The Ravens are just so flaccid offensively, but there probably will be some time needed for Jim Caldwell's offense to take effect.


6.) Indianapolis Colts  (9-5  =  309-358)

Hey, a decent loss. The Colts losses so far have either been embarrassing (35-9 to the Jets, 59-24 to the Pats) or heartbreaking (80-yard TD by Cecil Shorts), until now. That was just an old-fashioned, normal loss where the Colts just weren't as good as the Texans. That said, if they go to Baltimore, they could easily win.


Two Teams Enter, One Team Leaves

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  (8-6  =  355-293)

That was a really deceiving win, as Andy Dalton and the passing offense was just awful. They still have some incredible young pieces, and could be a dominant team in two or three years, but I don't think they are quite good enough in 2012. Kudos to them, though, to not falling back after that 9-7 surprise last year and making a playoff push.


4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-7  =  302-291)

That was a tough loss, but they didn't play nearly well enough. They get their chance to make that all disappear, though, if they can hold serve at Heinz and beat the Bengals and end things. The Steelers offense finally looked like it was clicking again, but the defense has become something of an issue. Their pass rush just isn't there this year, and they'll need it to come quickly down the stretch.


One of these Three Will Make It or Your Money Back

3.) Houston Texans  (12-2  =  394-280)

How good is JJ Watt? I have never seen a defensive player play this damn well in my life. I guess in the past Reggie White or LT may have had years like this, but I have never seen a defensive-lineman be that good all the time. His penetration is just amazing on nearly every play. Anyway, outside of that and another great Andre game, nothing much to see here.


2.) New England Patriots  (10-4  =  506-315)

Tough loss. The first 35 minutes was about the worst I have seen the Patriots play since that memorable (for me, at least) 2009 Wild Card disaster against Baltimore. They woke up in style, but in the end, their defense failed, their offense failed (two failed drives down 7 late), and they lost their inside-track at the bye. Tough loss for a team that was looking so good coming into the week.


1.) Denver Broncos  (11-3  =  409-274)

They got their bye back, and they got their first true big win against a good team. Lost in the Broncos 8 game win streak (now nine) was them not beating one team currently over .500 other than the Bengals, but they went into Baltimore and destroyed the Ravens in a game that wasn't even as close as the 34-17 score. Just a dominant performance, especially by the run game.


NFC


2013 Isn't too Far Away

16.) Detroit Lions  (4-10  =  330-380)

What the Hell was that? I still think this team will be better next year, but that was just embarrassing.


15.) Arizona Cardinals  (5-9  =  224-302)

Glad for them that they aren't going to end the season losing 12 straight. The Cardinals finally looked like a decent team, but their defense continues to be far better than that.


14.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-10  =  253-375)

They played hard, but that Jets-like sequence of turnovers ended any chance they had. Nice for the D-Line to show up for the first time in months after the season is pretty much over.


13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-8  =  354-349)

Three straight losses for the once-hot-thing, but that was the worst of them. They came so close to beating the Saints in Tampa, and then they go into New Orleans and just Shit the Bed in every way. That was the Tampa I expected from Week 1.


12.) St. Louis Rams  (6-7-1  =  258-315)

That was their first truly awful performance at home (discounting their "home" loss to New England in London), but it came at the worst time. They would still be very much alive had they been able to stop Adrian Peterson.


11.) Carolina Panthers  (5-9  =  296-319)

Another top performance for a team that is quickly becoming a sleeper pick for 2013. I'm going on record now, assuming no catastrophic injuries in the next two weeks that will impact 2013, I'm picking the Panthers to make the playoffs next year.


10.) New Orleans Saints  (6-8  =  389-379)

Considering the offense of Tampa through 14 weeks, that might actually have been the most surprising shutout ever, and they made a ton of plays to make it so.


They Have a Shot, but Probably Not

9.) Minnesota Vikings  (8-6  =  319-308)

Adrian Peterson is a God among men right now. He still would have to have a spectacular finish to break Dickerson's yardage record, but 2,000 yards is close to assured by now. The Vikings are still alive, but they would hold tiebreakers over no one if teams win out. The Vikings have something to build on, but they need to fix that QB.


8.) Chicago Bears  (8-6  =  321-240)

This team was once 7-1, hosting the similarly 7-1 Texans. Since, they are 1-5, and now need some things to happen to make the playoffs. If the do miss the playoffs, I can easily see Lovie Smith losing his job, which would be a shame as his defense has been mostly brilliant all year. Also, can they teach Alshon Jeffery to not push off?


The Great Race of 2012

7.) Dallas Cowboys  (8-6  =  327-338)

The Cowboys won another comeback game, but with two tough games ahead (hosting the Saints, going to Washington) coming up, I can see the season ending a little sadly in Dallas for another season. Tony Romo has been excellent this year since his 5-pick disaster against Chicago, but if he can't lead this team to the playoffs, it may not matter.


6.) Washington Redskins  (8-6  =  381-350)

Great win in Cleveland without RGIII, and I know the fallacy of taking one game samples, but I think it is clear that the revival in Washington has a lot to do with things outside of RGIII. The run game continues to be good, and the defense has been quite good after losing two of their best players weeks and weeks ago.


5.) New York Giants  (8-6  =  373-304)

I have no idea what goes on in New York each week. The Packers are 8-1 in their last nine games, and that one loss was that 38-10 blasting by the Giants. That same Giants team lost to Washington and then laid a pathetic egg in Atlanta. Still, if they do get in, they are as dangerous as ever. Win out and they'll get at least a Wild Card.


It Just Has to Happen This Way, Right?

4.) Seattle Seahawks  (9-5  =  350-219)

Back-to-Back 50 point games? Not even the Patriots can claim that. The Seahawks offense is at such a roll right now with all of their parts. Sidney Rice has quietly had a really effective season, and Russell Wilson continues to have great games. The 49ers win makes this Sunday's game a little less meaningful, but that crowd at night should still be a good time.


3.) Green Bay Packers  (10-4  =  344-292)




Despite not winning many blowouts, and winning a bunch of close games, and struggling to score 24 some nights, the Packers have a decent shot at the #2 seed and have clinched the NFC North again. The Packers team will take solace that they still aren't fully healthy, and there is room to improve, but I feel a team that doesn't put teams away will get burnt sooner or later.


Being Home Helps

2.) Atlanta Falcons  (12-2  =  371-259)

They are so different at home against good teams. They've played Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Eli Manning, and given up 21, 13 and 0 points, picking those guys off 10 times while allowing just 1 TD. They struggle with lesser teams, but they've shown up to play big games at home this year, and that is still a scary thought given that they are a good bet for Home-Field-Advantage.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  (10-3-1  =  357-218)

I was wrong. Kaepernick is a good enough passer to make this all work. Their run game is still solid. Hopefully Justin Smith isn't hurt long-term because that defense just wasn't the same without Smith in there. Their defense fell apart in those TD drives, but when they needed to make stops after re-taking the lead, they turned the Pats over on downs twice.


Postseason Projections (adding all alive teams)

AFC

1.) Houston Texans (13-3; vs.MIN (W), @IND (L))
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3; vs.CLE (W), vs.KC (W))
3.) New England Patriots (12-4; @JAX (W), vs.MIA (W))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6; vs.NYG (L), @CIN (W))
5.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5; @KC (W), vs.HOU (W))
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7; vs.CIN (W), vs.CLE (W))
*********************************************************
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7; @PIT (L), vs.BAL (L))


NFC

1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3; @DET (L), vs.TB (W))
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-3-1; @SEA (W), vs.ARZ (W))
3.) Green Bay Packers (12-4; vs.TEN (W), @MIN (W))
4.) New York Giants (10-6; @BAL (W), vs.PHI (W))
5.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6; vs.SF (L), vs.STL (W))
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6; @ARZ (W), @DET (W))
**********************************************************
7.) Washington Redskins (9-7; @PHI (L), vs.DAL (W))
8.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8; vs.NO (L), @WAS (L))
9.) Minnesota Vikings (8-8; @HOU (L), vs.GB (L))


With the season almost over, I am retiring the 'Looking Forward to Next Week's Games' part.


Award Watch

Coach of the Year

3.) John Fox (DEN)
2.) Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano (IND)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)


DROTY

3.) Levonte David (TB)
2.) Chandler Jones (NE)
1.) Janoris Jenkins (STL)


OROTY

3.) Russell Wilson (SEA)
2.) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
1.) Andrew Luck (IND)


DPOTY

3.) Aldon Smith (SF)
2.) Von Miller (DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (HOU)


OPOTY

3.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2.) Calvin Johnson (DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)


MVP

5.) JJ Watt (HOU)
4.) Tom Brady (NE)
3.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (DEN)

NFL 2012: Week 15 Picks

With finals upon me, I still haven't figured out my viewing schedule for this weekend. Of course, this has to be the best week, on paper, of the season, with a bunch of really good games. Because of this fact, I am leaning more and more heavily to living in isolation until Tuesday afternoon and watching everything then. Anyway, short picks this week. Hopefully that doesn't screw up what's been a pretty good season picking games.

Year-to-Date: 116-85-7 (57.5%)


Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)  (CIN -4.5)

Well, we come to the end of the Thursday Night Football schedule of the year. I have no idea why there isn't TNF football in Week 16 (especially since there is no Monday Night game, but a Saturday Night game on ESPN instead), but I'm glad I'll have Cee-Lo's stupid song out of my life. Anyway, it is fitting that in a year of prime-time blowouts and boring games (quick: name three good primetime games this year), we get the disappointing Eagles hosting a game. I would be more inclined to take the Eagles' side here if they didn't pull out that Tampa game. This will probably be a lot down for a team that is just happy to have ended an 8-game losing streak. The Bengals need the game badly, and I think they get it against what is still a porous pass defense.

Bengals 30  Eagles 20  (CIN -4.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-8)  (NO -3.5)

OK, now I'm going to get to the quick picks. The Buccaneers might have a let down after that awful loss to the Eagles last weekend, and the Saints generally play well at home. The Saints are getting good value here, as they have been able to destroy bad defenses all year long (they just have trouble with any team that is any good on that side of the ball). The Buccaneers have a terrible pass rush to go along as well.

Buccaneers 23  Saints 34  (NO -3.5)


Minnesota Vikings (7-6)  @  St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)  (STL -3)

Why do I like so many favorites this week? That never goes well. Anyway, I like the Rams here as well. The Rams have played well at home this year apart from losing to the Aaron Rodgers show earlier in the season. The Vikings haven't traveled well all year. By DVOA, the Rams are 8th best against the run, which helps against an offense that is mainly just Peterson runs. I like the Rams, who are getting good value, to continue their improbable and most likely irrelevant, playoff push. To be safe, I'll buy half a point here.

Vikings 13  Rams 20  (STL -3)


Washington Redskins (7-6)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-8)  (WAS -1)

I still don't know who is playing, but it is looking more likely to be RGIII. Either way, that scares me since RGIII with a knee injury can't be 100%, and his movement might be effected. Overall, I just can't believe the Redskins could end the year with 7 straight wins. The Browns have been decent all year long and winners of their last three. They have a defense that can contain RGIII, and an offense good enough to get by as well. With the value they are getting, they are an easy choice.

Redskins 20  Browns 23  (CLE +1)


Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-8)  (MIA -7)

This line is too high. I'm pretty sure the last time the Dolphins got this much love from Vegas was before their bizarre 37-3 home loss to the Titans. The Jaguars have been better in recent weeks, and I would think Chad Henne would want to stick it to the Dolphins. Either way, with a line this high I feel quite confident in the Dolphins inability to win a game by this amount.

Jaguars 23  Dolphins 20  (JAX +7)


Indianapolis Colts (9-4)  @  Houston Texans (11-2)  (HOU -8.5)

While this line is really high, I can't argue. The Texans are an awful matchup for the Colts. The Texans strength on defense is their interior line in JJ Watt and Antonio Smith, and they both have extremely favorable matchups against whoever the Colts have playing guard and center. The Colts have no one to take away Andre Johnson. The Colts haven't traveled well as it is, and the Texans are angry. The high line makes me think twice, but I would probably go with Houston for anything less than '-10'.

Colts 17  Texans 31  (HOU -8.5)


Denver Broncos (10-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-4)  (DEN -2.5)

Now we get to the fun games. Manning has owned the Ravens in his career. He lost the first two meetings in 1998 and 2001, but the Colts beat the Ravens in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009 with Manning, and again in the playoffs in 2006 and 2009. Peyton has a lifetime 95 rating against the Ravens, and all those Ravens teams had better defenses than this one. The Ravens offense generally plays better at home, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the fact that the Broncos are just better anyway.

Broncos 27  Ravens 20  (DEN -2.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


New York Giants (8-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (11-2)  (ATL -1.5)

People love the Giants in this game. The Giants get up for these types of games. They've already gone out and smacked the 49ers and Packers in their meetings. The Giants aren't really a bad matchup for Atlanta, because their corners aren't great, but the matchup on the other side is just as bad. With injuries in the secondary, the Falcons pass defense isn't as good as it was earlier in the year, and Eli Manning could have a great game. The only thing that makes me want to pick Atlanta is the fact that they play well at home for the most part, but I'll go with my gut and the rest of the public and take the Giants.

Giants 27  Falcons 23  (NYG +1.5)


Green Bay Packers (9-4)  @  Chicago Bears (8-5)  (GB -3)

The most meaningful 1PM game in a way, the Bears have a chance to at least make the division interesting the last few weeks (the Packers would still be #1). The Packers have a chance to put the Bears misery even further, and stake their claim as an improbable #2 seed. The Bears have always played the Rodgers offense well, and especially at home in Chicago, and this version of the Packers offense is the worst in the Rodgers era (other than his first year). I can easily see the Bears defense, which hasn't slipped as much as people think, playing the Packers well. The other side is the key. Can Jay Cutler, for once, not throw picks against the Packers. I say he does with Woodson and Matthews likely out, and the Bears get the win, which at least makes a postseason appearance much more likely.

Packers 17  Bears 20  (CHI +3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Carolina Panthers (4-9)  @  San Diego Chargers (5-8)  (SD -3)

These next few games are so impeachably bad that I really don't care to think too much about them. The Panthers are the league's best 4-9 team in my eyes, and the Chargers are, pythagorically, the league's best 5-8 team. I think the league's best 4-9 team wins it, roping more people into the Panthers Playoffs in 2013 campaign that I am already close to signing up for.

Panthers 30  Chargers 24  (CAR +3)


Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-10)  (OAK -3)

Both these teams are awful, but the Raiders more often resemble an actual team. They have extra days to prepare, and other than the far-from-zero possibility of Jamaal Charles breaking the single-game rushing record, the Raiders should win. I'll buy a half to be safe.

Chiefs 17  Raiders 24  (OAK bought to -3.5)


Detroit Lions (4-9)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-9)  (DET -6)

The Cardinals still usually play well at home and their defense is still good. There is a nice trend where teams that lose by a ton generally cover the next week as they get overly punished for that one awful performance. That 58-0 loss is hiding the fact that the Cardinals have usually been competitive in their games, and I think they'll be competitive, but lose, in this one.

Lions 24  Cardinals 20  (ARZ +6)


Seattle Seahawks (8-5)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-8)  (SEA -5.5)

This game is in Toronto, which makes me like the Seahawks a lot more. I think that line is a little high, as I don't trust the Seahawks yet to go on the road and take care of business by that much, but the Seahawks defense is on a roll right now. The Bills so far have never played well in their Toronto games, and the Seahawks need a win here to make that massive game next week against San Francisco meaningful, and I think they get it.

Seahawks 27  Bills 17  (SEA -5.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)  @  Dallas Cowboys (7-6)  (PIT -1.5)

Love this game. Would love it more if it was being played in the outdoor gem that is Heinz Field, as it was in 2008 when they played a fantastic low-scoring game, but I'll take the first meeting between these two Titans of the sport in Cowboys Stadium. Both teams really need this game, but the Cowboys would technically be a little more desperate (if the Steelers lose this but win next week in Cincinnati, they would still be in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot). There is a chance the Steelers are looking ahead, but I don't think they will after that disaster last week. They match up well with the Cowboys in my mind.

Steelers 23  Cowboys 20  (PIT -1.5)


San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1)  @  New England Patriots (10-3)  (NE -5.5)

I feel this line is too high, but I fear a situation where I take the 49ers and the Patriots do to them what they just did to the Texans. I don't think the Patriots can sustain that level on a short week against the most physical team in the NFL. I definitely think the 49ers defense will have more success containing the Patriots offense as the 49ers defense has the guys in the secondary to slow down the Patriots receivers. The other side of the ball is the real matchup. Belichick will probably have something for Kaepernick, but the 49ers' offense is just schemed so well. I'll go with New England because they are on a hot streak to win, but I'll take the 49ers to make it a little close.

49ers 23  Patriots 27  (SF +5.5)


New York Jets (6-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-9)  (TEN -1.5)

Amazingly enough, the Jets scenario to make the playoffs isn't even that extreme. Not that many things have to happen outside of the Jets winning out. The Steelers have to lose twice (@DAL, vs.CIN, vs.CLE) and the Bengals once (@PHI, @PIT, vs.BAL). I still don't think it happens, but it could. The Jets have dominated mediocre and worse offenses this year, and the Titans are definitely that. I can see the Titans playing a good game on Monday Night, but I like where this Jets team is right now. I have an awful sickness with the Jets, always thinking they'll do better than they will. Maybe it is just a symptom of having too many friends that are Jets fans. Anyway, there is value for the Jets here, and I'll take it.

Jets 20  Titans 13  (NYJ +1.5)


Bonus: So, what were the good prime-time games this year?

Let's break it down.

Thursday Night Football: The best games were the 49ers 13-6 win over Seattle, which was a great low-scoring game, and a 26-23 OT win by the Titans over the Steelers. They had a couple good games on paper that ended up awful, like the Falcons sloppy 23-13 win over New Orleans, and the Packers equally sloppy 23-10 win over the Bears back in Week 2.

Monday Night Football: The best game was probably two weeks ago, with the Redskins beating the Giants 17-16, or you can go back to a couple of Broncos comebacks, with their 35-24 win over San Diego or their 27-21 near comeback loss to Atlanta. But the winner here was probably the most infamous game of the year, the Seahawks 14-12 win over the Packers in Week 3.

Sunday Night Football: This is the real sad one. Sunday Night Football is usually a great matchup going into the week. It always has the chance of being a special game, but this year has been mostly awful on Sunday Night, a string of boring blowouts and quarters filled with Al and Cris trying desperately to fill time. Here's a quick rundown.

Week 1: Cowboys over Giants 24-17: Decent, if unmemorable game.
Week 1: Broncos over Steelers 31-19: Good game, closer than the score indicates

Week 2: 49ers over Lions 27-19: Average game, not as close as the score
Week 3: Ravens over Patriots: 31-30: By far best prime-time game of the year.
Week 4: Eagles over Giants 19-17: Another good game - the year started well.
Week 5: Saints over Chargers 31-24: Only memorable for Brees braking Unitas' record.
Week 6: Packers over Texans 42-24: Great game on paper falls way short in blowout.
Week 7: Steelers over Bengals 24-17: Game nowhere near as fun as score.
Week 8: Broncos over Saints 34-14: Manning vs. Brees rematch is complete blowout
Week 9: Falcons over Cowboys 19-13: Admittedly good game between two good teams.
Week 10: Texans over Bears 13-6: Great matchup ruined by Cutler injury
Week 11: Ravens over Steelers 13-10: Great matchup ruined by presence of Leftwich.
Week 12: Patriots over Jets 49-19: Butt-Fumbling end to Thanksgiving
Week 12: Giants over Packers 38-10: The season's nadir with an unexpected blowout.
Week 13: Cowboys over Eagles 38-33: The fact it wasn't un-flexed ruined a decent game.
Week 14: Packers over Lions: 27-20: Started well but fizzled out the second the snow stopped.

We have three games left, with the 49ers traveling to New England and then Seattle the next week. Assuming a 49ers loss and Seahawks win this week, that game is essentially for the division. We'll find out the Week 17 game later, but a good one could be Cowboys @ Redskins.


Anyway, after that long, most likely unnecessary tangent, enjoy the games!!!

NFL 2012: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

An interesting week of picks and games, so let's get to it.

Broncos (-10)  over  Raiders  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)
Ravens (+3)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  1-1  =  -1000)  (UPSET)
Browns (-6.5)  over  Chiefs  (CORRECT  =  2-1  =  +1000)
Steelers (-6.5)  over  Chargers  (WRONG  =  2-2  =  -1000)  (LOCK)
Colts (-5)  over  Titans  (WRONG  =  2-3  =  -1000)
Jets (-3)  over  Jaguars  (CORRECT  =  3-3  =  +1000)
Bears (-3)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  3-4  =  -1000)
Panthers (+3.5*)  over  Falcons  (CORRECT  =  4-4  =  +1000)
Eagles (+7.5)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  5-4  =  +1000)
Rams (+3)  over  Bills  (CORRECT  =  6-4  =  +1000)
Bengals (-2.5*)  over  Cowboys  (WRONG  =  6-5  =  -1200)
49ers (-10)  over  Dolphins  (CORRECT  =  7-5  =  +1000)
Cardinals (+10)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  7-6  =  -1000)
Giants (-5)  over  Saints  (CORRECT  =  8-6  =  +1000)
Lions (+7.5*)  over  Packers  (CORRECT  =  9-6  =  +1000)
Patriots (-3)  over  Texans  (CORRECT  =  10-6  =  +1000)

Week 14: 10-6  (LOCK: 0-1;  UPSET: 0-1)  (+3,800)

Year-to-Date: 116-85-7  (LOCK: 11-3;  UPSET: 9-5)  (+30,600)

Best Picks: I picked the 49ers to win 24-13, and they won 27-13. Of course, I'll do a special worst pick, as I picked the Seahawks to win 20-13 (Cards cover), and they won by a tidy 58-0.


Power Rankings

AFC

Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-11  =  216-359)

I still really want to know where exactly is Maurice Jones-Drew these days? Is he still alive? Has he retired? Is he going to emerge a couple months from now in Ricky Williams' house?


15.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-11  =  195-352)

It is hard to have your running back gain 165 yards on 18 carries and still lose by 23. It is worse to do this when you are losing to the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs never stop amazing me with their awful play.


14.) Oakland Raiders  (3-10  =  248-402)

It was nice to see the pass rush active for once, but they can't cover anyone with their lack of corners. I want to think the Jon Gruden return rumors are true, but I don't think that is fair to Dennis Allen.


13.) Tennessee Titans  (4-9  =  271-386)

I'll probably do this around the time the year ends, but I want to give an award to each team, and the Titans definitely get the "Lord Knows What Will Happen This Week" award, as they've blown 20-7 leads, lost 51-7 at home and won 37-3 on the road. Just a bizarre team.


Mediocrity is the Bane of a Team's Existence
 
12.) Buffalo Bills  (5-8  =  289-352)

Next week they get true mediocrity as they travel to Toronto to play the Seahawks, but the Bills easily could have won that game. The Fred Jackson injury might finally get CJ Spiller some games as a full-time back, as he is the one shinning light in another lost Bills season.


11.) Miami Dolphins  (5-8  =  240-276)

Remember when the Dolphins were 4-3 and went to play the 4-3 Colts? The Dolphins are 1-6 since that game (the Colts, using what can only be described as Dark Arts, are 6-1). Ryan Tannehill has fallen off, and despite decent performances, are in for another long winter.


10.) New York Jets  (6-7  =  245-306)

The fact that they are still alive is just amazing. What makes it worse is they dropped that truly winnable game in Foxboro earlier this year, or they could be over .500. One piece of good news is there is no way their Week 16 and 17 opponents rest starters this time around like three years ago.


9.) Cleveland Browns  (5-8  =  259-272) 

Three straight wins, and don't look now but if RGIII is out or gimpy, they could get a 4th. Of course, there are rumors they are looking to sign Mike Lombardi and Josh McDaneils as a package GM/Coach for next season, which is so utterly moronic, it makes hiring Butch Davis seem smart.


8.) San Diego Chargers  (5-8  =  292-281)

The Chargers somehow have a +11 point differential but are three games under .500. Just another dead season in San Diego. Despite beating down the Steelers, Philip Rivers is so amazingly innacurate now that it is kind of sad. Here was the best QB in the NFL from 2008-2010 statistically just playing like garbage. Sad.


The Team That Still won't Admit How Bad they Are

7.) Indianapolis Colts  (9-4  =  292-329)

I have no idea how they are doing it. They were down 20-7, playing soulless football (granted, that Pick-6 was absolutely the wrong call), yet somehow won despite Andrew Luck having a bad day. This wasn't like Luck's bad, but quietly good, day against Detroit. This was just a bad performance, yet they still won. Amazing, really. The best part is they might actually draw Baltimore in Round 1, the one opponent that wouldn't fleece them 45-10.


The Slightly Depressing Three Ring Circus
 
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-6  =  278-264)

I have no idea how to rank these three AFC North teams, as they all lost in excruciating fashion on Sunday, but I'm putting the Steelers last for losing to the worst team of the three and losing at home by 10 (but really much more, as it was 27-3 at one point). Roethlisberger, to me, actually seemed healthy, but that team was just awful around him.


5.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-4  =  331-273)

They might really lose four straight games after a 9-2 start with the Broncos and Giants coming to Baltimore the next two weeks. My gut feeling is they win one of those two games, but it will definitely make for an interesting time in Baltimore. Ray Lewis is returning, but he can't solve a suddenly average defense. I do like the moxie to fire Cam Cameron this late in a season, though.


4.) Cincinnati Bengals  (7-6  =  321-280)

I'm not quite sure how they blew that game. It isn't like Tony Romo had a great game. I guess it was an awful performance in the Red Zone that did them in, as Dalton seemed to move it easily from 20 to 20. That Geno Atkins is a superstar, quietly having an awesome season at a true DT spot. Their pass rush is so good.


If One of these Three Don't Make It, then We have a Problem

3.) Houston Texans  (11-2  =  365-263)

Well, that was bad. For the 2nd Time this season, the Texans gave up 42 points to a premier QB in a national game. The difference here was, at least to me, it was more the offenses fault for screwing up promising drives in that 1st half. I credit Gary Kubiak for going for it on 4th down twice in the 1st Half, but it didn't work, and made what could have been a 21-13 type game at halftime into 21-0. They have to move on. They still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they don't seem like a team that could beat Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the playoffs.


2.) Denver Broncos  (10-3  =  375-257)

Another Denver win that easily could have been far more comfortable than it was. The Broncos defense continues to stifle opponents, but gave up some long plays in the game. The offense is starting to have trouble scoring in the Red Zone. But these are relative problems, nitpicks for as complete a team as there is in the NFL.


1.) New England Patriots  (10-3  =  472-274)

They return to #1 with a dominant performance against the prior-to-NFL's best team. They still get absurd fumble luck, as they fumbled twice in the Red Zone and recovered both (including one for a fumble). The defense was impressive I guess, but I still feel they can be exposed against a team with more than one weapon. Oddly, I still think the Ravens are an awful matchup for New England.


Projected AFC Standings

1.) Houston Texans (14-2  =  vs.IND (w), vs.MIN (w), @IND (w))

2.) New England Patriots (13-3  =  vs.SF (w), @JAX (w), vs.MIA (w))

3.) Denver Broncos (13-3  =  @BAL (w), vs.CLE (w), vs.KC (w))

4.) Baltimore Ravens  (10-6  =  vs.DEN (L), vs.NYG (w), @CIN (L))

5.) Indianapolis Colts  (10-6  =  @HOU (L), @KC (w), vs.HOU (L))

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (9-7  =  @DAL (w), vs.CIN (w), vs.CLE (L))

***********************************************************

7.) Cincinnati Bengals  (9-7  =  @PHI (w), @PIT (L), vs.BAL (W))



NFC


Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes

16.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-9  =  186-292)

I guess it wasn't just Ryan Lindley then?


15.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-9  =  240-341)

Great win, and finally a performance by the defense that ended their run of historically putrid play against the pass. Nick Foles looks pretty good to me, and I think whatever coach replaces Andy Reid should at least attempt to stick with Foles, especially with the sullen crop of QBs in the draft.


2013 Could Bring Good Things

14.) Carolina Panthers  (4-9  =  265-312)

They aren't the best 4-9 team, but I think they will have a .500 or better season next year. Cam Newton is still a good QB in my eyes. Some of the plays he can make are incredible. That defense has been playing well since getting healthy, and they absolutely deserved that win on Sunday.


13.) New Orleans Saints  (5-8  =  348-379)

That loss essentially ends their season. What a failure for the Saints, as they fought all the way back to a 5-5 record, but then the schedule caught up with them as they had three straight games against current division leaders and lost them all by double digits. The Saints offense is nowhere near what it was a year ago, and some of that is on Brees, who is forcing way too many balls to Jimmy Graham.


12.) Detroit Lions  (4-9  =  320-342)

Here is a team that could go 13-3 next year and I wouldn't be surprised. I really hope they don't fire Jim Schwartz. They have everything except they keep making dumb mistakes. It is mostly Stafford, who's turnovers led to return TDs that proved to be the difference in both games against Green Bay. The Lions have all the pieces, but just need to put it all together. It is coming.


The Teams that are Alive in Only the Mathematical Sense

11.) St. Louis Rams  (6-6-1  =  236-279)

Credit them for pulling off three straight wins to make their season much better, and credit Jeff Fisher for keeping that team competitive. They were once 3-2, and then went in a 0-4-1 stretch, but have rebounded. They still haven't lost to an NFC West opponent, and that could be huge with a game in Seattle in Week 17.


10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-7  =  354-308)

That was a crushing loss. So many people liked them before the season, and then even more through the season when they stayed competitive. They still have a good point differential and nice pieces, but you can't lose to those types of teams and seriously be a playoff contender. 


9.) Minnesota Vikings  (7-6  =  283-286)

They keep staying .500 or better mainly because of Adrian Peterson. At least that game was won with the addition of a defense that basically scored 14 points by itself, but Adrian Peterson continues to prop up the league's most flaccid passing game. At least Ponder doesn't turn it over three or four times like those so-called 'quarterbacks' in Arizona.


The Sharks, Waiting for the Giants to Slip into the Water

8.) Dallas Cowboys  (7-6  =  300-314)

Big win for a team that has often seemed a little mentally weak. They still seem to play better on the road than at home, which is bad considering they have two home games upcoming. I'll give credit to Tony Romo for coming up big at the end after a mostly bad game through three quarters, and that defense for forcing field goals, but if AJ Green didn't have an uncharacteristically drop-heavy day, they lose and their season is all but over.


7.) Washington Redskins  (7-6  =  343-329)

Alfred Morris is a beast. That run game is the reason they are winning, not RGIII. I don't admit that RGIII is having a great season, and he has probably wrestled away the Offensive Rookie of the Year award away from Luck, but he has a dependable running game to lean on. They have a legitimate chance of going from 3-6 to 10-6, which would be one of the great runs of recent memory to end a season.


We'll Know in Just One More Week

6.) Chicago Bears  (8-5  =  308-219)

I actually don't think anything is wrong with their defense, which essentially gave up just 7 points in that game, as the Vikings returned two picks for a TD and to the 5-yard line. The Bears offense needs to play better. Luckily for them, they get two winnable games after next week, and if they go 10-6, it would be hard for them not to make the playoffs, but it would be huge to beat the Packers in the return leg. They still wouldn't have the division if the do win, but at least it will make them much more likely to make it to the playoffs.


5.) Green Bay Packers  (9-4  =  323-279)

There are three 9-4 teams in the NFL, and while the Packers probably are the best of the three, all three are slightly underwhelming. Aaron Rodgers had an average day, and that offense is still nothing close to what it was last season, but they continue to win these games. Amazingly, they can get the #2 seed after starting the season 2-3. That says more about the NFC as a whole, as the NFC has become a far more deep and balanced conference than the ultra-top-heavy AFC.


If One of These Four Don't Make it, then We have Slightly Less of a Problem

4.) Seattle Seahawks  (8-5  =  300-202)

That was impressive, but rarely will a team be that dominant two weeks in a row, so look for a possible struggle this week in Toronto. The Seahawks defense is playing out of its mind right now, but so is that offense. Russell Wilson didn't have a great game, but other than the now-benched Alex Smith, few do against the Cardinals defense. Marshawn Lynch picked it up, though, with a great game.


3.) Atlanta Falcons  (11-2  =  337-259)

They still have a firm grasp over that #1 seed, and a 49ers loss this weekend all but clinches it, but the Falcons still have a load of problems. They are slow in the beginning of games too much, and that offense is getting way too pass-heavy right now. Their defense also seems a step slower outdoors, which, I guess, wouldn't be a problem in the playoffs.


2.) New York Giants  (8-5  =  373-270)

That was, maybe, the worst performance in a 52-27 game, but the Giants continue to force a ridiculous amount of turnovers, and look like the scariest team in the NFC. There are serious questions about them winning that division, and potentially even making the playoffs at all, but if they get in, I can absolutely see them going on a run. The one difference this time, though, is the Giants have been good enough to make it less of a surprise in isolation.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  (9-3-1  =  316-184)

I still want to find flaws with the move to Kaepernick, and I still don't think it makes the team any better in 2012, but after their 27-13 win over the Dolphins, I did ask myself: what would the score have been had Alex Smith played? And the answer is probably around a 27-13 win. We all expect the 49ers to be better with Kaepernick for the move to be paid off, but as long as they are about the same then the move was fine. We'll find out more this weekend, but I still think the 49ers are the class of the NFC from a talent perspective.


NFC Playoff Projections

1.) Atlanta Falcons  (13-3  =  vs.NYG (L), @DET (w), vs.TB (w))

2.) San Francisco 49ers  (11-4-1  =  @NE (L), @SEA (w), vs.ARZ (w))

3.) Green Bay Packers  (11-5  =  @CHI (L), vs.TEN (w), @MIN (w)

4.) New York Giants  (10-6  =  @ATL (w), @BAL (L), vs.PHI (w))

5.) Seattle Seahawks  (10-6  =  @BUF (w), vs.SF (L), vs.STL (w))

6.) Chicago Bears  (10-6  =  vs.CHI (w),  @ARZ (w),  @DET (L))

********************************************

7.) Washington Redskins  (9-7  =  @CLE (L), @PHI (w), vs.DAL (w))



Looking Ahead to This Week's Games

Quick Note: This is probably the best week of football games of the year. Of course, it is also the weekend before my two finals, so I'm not sure when I'll actually watch these games. I might try to avoid modern society until after my last final on Tuesday ends. I've done this before (2010 playoffs) but that time I was in India. A little easier to avoid finding out the scores when you are in a country that doesn't know of the existence of the NFL.


16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-10)  (4:25 - CBS)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) New York Jets (6-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-9)  (MNF - ESPN)
13.) Detroit Lions (4-9)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-9)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (4-9)  @  San Diego Chargers (5-8)  (4:05 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)  (TNF - NFLN)

I call it "Let's Get This Shit Out of the Way and Enjoy Some Real Football" Sunday, as all these games feature at least one bad team. Thankfully, most of the bad teams this week are playing against other bad teams. Only two of these games have any sort of playoff implication, and one of those is due to the fact that the Jets have some sort of playoff chance. The worst part about this set of games is that two of them are two of the three primetime games. The TNF games are usually bad, but in what world would Jets @ Titans ever have been a good game at this point in the season.


10.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-8)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "I have No Idea What to Call It, but they are Better Than That Last Set" Sunday, as the Seahawks travel to Toronto to play a dead Bills team. This is the last road game for the Seahawks this season, and a win here would really help their chase of the NFC West title. The Bucs and Saints are playing a game that could easily end 45-38, but since neither team is making the playoffs, who, other than fantasy owners, cares?


8.) Indianapolis Colts (9-4)  @  Houston Texans (11-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The Worst Game with Two Teams that are a Combined 20-6 Ever" Sunday, as I can really see the Colts losing by 30. The Texans are much better than that thing we saw on Monday Night, and the Colts have absolutely no one that has a prayer of blocking JJ Watt, or really stopping Andre Johnson. This could be billed as a game for the division, but it most likely won't be.


7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6)  @  St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Washington Redskins (7-6)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Survivor Sunday" as the Vikings, Rams and Redskins look to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. the Redskins are probably in best position to lose this game and still make the playoffs because of the Giants' schedule, but a loss would be crippling for them. The Vikings and Rams are the worst two teams in the NFC Wild Card Chase, and the loser is basically out. The winner has a glimmer of hope, though. Just the fact that this is true about this game in Week 15 is amazing.


5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)  @  Dallas Cowboys (7-6)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Nostalgia Sunday" as the Steelers and Cowboys have a matchup that for many evokes memories of Super Bowls past, of dominant dynasties in the 70's, and all that other sappy crap. For me, though, it evokes memories of Week 14 in 2008, the last time these two met, when the 8-4 Cowboys and 10-2 Steelers battled it out in Heinz Field, and in a old-fasioned smashmouth game, the Steelers came back from 13-3 down in the 4th Quarter to win 20-13 on an Ike Taylor pick-6. It was, as Mike Tomlin said afterwards, a "beautiful game." Anyway, this one is in Dallas, so it probably won't be as picturesque.


4.) Denver Broncos (10-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1)  @  New England Patriots (10-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Playoff Positioning" Sunday, as all four teams are pretty sure bets to make the playoffs (the Broncos and Pats have already clinched, and one more win by the other two in their remaining games gets them in without any outside help), but this game will go a long way towards seeding. The Broncos might be better off with the #4 seed, as that draws Indy in Round 1 and avoids a trip to New England in Round 2. Of course, they are still one slip-up by the Pats away from a 1st Round Bye. The 49ers look to hold off the Packers for that #2 seed in the NFC, as the Pats look to hold off the Broncos in the AFC.  That game can reaffirm the Pats position as the league's best team, or show the world that they are mortal and the Jim Harbaugh made the right choice.


1.) Green Bay Packers (9-4)  @  Chicago Bears (8-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

A win by the Packers all but wraps up the division, and a win by the Bears keeps the race going. Had the Bears won one of their last two games and entered this at 9-4, it would have been the #1 game in the Week, but with an 8-5 record, a Bears win doesn't give them the inside track to the division title. A Bears win will go a long way in getting them to the playoffs, though.


2.) New York Giants (8-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (11-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

Just a great game, but I have no idea why it needs to be played at 1PM. The Giants are playing for a division still, and a loss here really hurts with a trip to Baltimore next week. It would be an epic collapse if the Giants don't win the division. A win by the Falcons all but wraps up the #1 seed, and finally will quiet some of the doubters as the Falcons can beat a team with a load of playoff pedigree. The Giants get another chance to beat one of the NFC's best, as they've done in all their major games this year. A great game with tons of storylines.


Coach of the Year

3.) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)

Kubiak is still up there, but that is because it is hard to come up with good candidates. I still don't see any way an interim coach wins it, but Bruce Arians, by the outline of the award, probably is the best candidate. Pete Carroll made a gutsy decision to go with Russell Wilson and it paid off quite well, and Mike Shanahan's offense has made Washington into one of the league's most efficient and exciting teams.


Defensive Player of the Year

3.) Aldon Smith (OLB - SF)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)

Aldon Smith picked up two more sacks, but as recent DPOTY votes have shown, it takes more than just a high sack total to win the award. Jared Allen had 22.0 last year and lost to Terrell Suggs, who arguably had the better overall season. This year, Von Miller and JJ Watt are having better overall seasons. I still have an edge to Watt for doing it at a tougher position to pile up those types of numbers.


Offensive Player of the Year

3.) Peyton Manning (QB - IND)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)

Manning is still in the running as the best QB statistically this year, but Brady and Rodgers are right there. Calvin is still on pace to break Jerry Rice's yardage record, but to me his lack of TDs hurts him. Peterson has the TDs, but also a legitimate chance at 2,000 yards for a team with absolutely no passing game to take any pressure off him.


MVP

5.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
4.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)

Watt is still there for having an ungodly impact as a 3-4 DE. Peterson remains, and is closing in on the top three, for being the sole reason his team is above .500 and still in the Wild Card hunt. Then we get the top-three QBs. Unlike baseball, there is a separate award for OPOTY and MVP, so for MVP I look at things like situation and narrative. Rodgers has had his two main targets in and out of the lineup, has had a revolving door at tackle and no run game and is about 95% as good as last year. Brady has had some of these things (no Hernandez and then no Gronk, revolving door at guard) but has a great run game. Manning joined an 8-8 team that should have gone 6-10, and has led them to a 10-3 record. He's changed that franchise, made Demarryius Thomas into one of the premier weapons in the NFL. He embodies what 'most valuable' is all about.

NFL 2012: Week 14 Picks

Just to restate, I am putting 1,000 fake dollars on each game, and putting up 200 extra dollars to buy half a point either way. OK, with that done, let's get to the picks.


Denver Broncos (9-3)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-9)  (DEN -10)

This is a high line, and the Broncos have a strange habit of giving up late TDs to come close to the number. They blew a -7.5 line against the Chargers by giving up a late TD, and almost did it again against the Buccaneers. I can totally see the Broncos winning by 17 and giving up a late TD to the best garbage-time offense in the NFL. Then again, the last time these two played, it was 37-6 despite Demarryius having a TD punched out of his hands. The Raiders are even worse now than they were then. I can't see a flat Raiders team that doesn't look like it is trying on defense beating a Broncos team that needs to put pressure on New England for that #2 seed.

Broncos 34  Raiders 13  (DEN -10)


Baltimore Ravens (9-3)  @  Washington Redskins (6-6)  (WAS -3)

The Ravens are an interesting team. Apparently, they are the best Special Teams through 12 games that Football Outsiders has ever measured. Their defense is worse than the Patriots defense by that same ranking, and allowing Charlie Batch to go 25-36 is evidence of that. That said, I don't think these two teams are even, as the line suggests. The Ravens aren't as good as a 9-3 team, but they aren't that far off. Plus, they haven't lost back-to-back games since October 2009. Also, can you really see the Redskins running off 7 in a row to end the year? I can't. The Redskins are also off a short week, and this is a rivalry game for the Ravens that they have owned. I love the Ravens here.

Ravens 23  Redskins 20  (BAL +3)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Kansas City Chiefs (2-10)  @  Cleveland Browns (4-8)  (CLE -6.5)

Can you believe the 5-8 Browns are getting nearly a TD? Has there ever been a team three games under .500 that has gotten this many points before? The more weird part is I am down with that. The Browns have won two straight games and haven't been blown out all year long. I also don't like the Chiefs in this spot, as their emotions that ran high last Sunday are in for a letdown (much like the Colts after Pagano's diagnosis after the emotional win over the Packers). I do think the letdown will happen, and I just like this Browns team right now to take care of business.

Chiefs 17  Browns 27  (CLE -6.5)


San Diego Chargers (4-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  (PIT -6.5)

This is the line when Ben starts, and it looks pretty certain that he will. In the Rivers era, the Steelers have owned the Chargers, beating them twice in 2008, in 2009, against one loss back in the LDT era in 2006. And those were the Steelers beating better Chargers teams than this one. Quietly, around Roethlisberger's injury, Antonio Brown returned and he looks healthy. Roethlisberger is returning to a better cast than he left. The Steelers have an outside shot at the division and it would start with a win here against a dead team traveling West to East. I think the Chargers are just done at this point, and can't even see them getting up for this one.

Chargers 14  Steelers 31  (PIT -6.5)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)


Tennessee Titans (4-8)  @  Indianapolis Colts (8-4)  (IND -5)

When I saw this line for the first time, I thought "This is too high." Now that I've seen it more, I've come down from that opinion. The Colts are pretty close to money in any home game or winnable game. They haven't traveled well and that probably portends a dark day on January 5th or 6th in Baltimore, Denver or New England, but for this game, they are in a good spot. The Titans with Locker haven't really stepped up since getting him back. They looked so flaccid against the Texans last week. The Colts are healthier now than they've been at any point this season, and I would say they could look past the Titans with their game in Houston coming up, but the Titans are still a divisional rivalry. I'll go with the Colts to, somehow and someway, go to 9-4.

Titans 20  Colts 27  (IND -5)


New York Jets (5-7)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)  (NYJ -3)

I was wrong with Chad Henne last week, and from what I have seen with the Jets, their defense can absolutely dominate middling offenses, as they did three weeks ago in St. Louis, or last week against the Cardinals. The Jets themselves are going back to Sanchez, which is worrisome, but I have a feeling the benching will motivate him for at least one game. I don't want to think about this game for too long, and I'll stick with my judgement of the Jets defense shutting down a bad offense.

Jets 20  Jaguars 13  (NYJ -3) 


Chicago Bears (8-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  (CHI -3)

The Bears are definitely in flux right now. They will almost certainly still make the playoffs, but things are getting more interesting. That game next week against Green Bay still looms large, but I can see this being a tricky game. The Bears rush defense is nowhere near as good as their pass defense, and that isn't a good matchup when playing Adrian Peterson, but the Ponder passing game probably will do nothing. The Bears are getting Alshon Jeffery and Devin Hester back, so this is the first game with Cutler and all the weapons in two months. I think they cover this low number and go to 9-4 heading into their showdown for the division next week.

Bears 27  Vikings 16  (CHI -3)


Atlanta Falcons (11-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-9)  (ATL -3)
 
If the Falcons are going to lose a surprise game, it is this one. They have another "prove something to me" type game next week when they host the Giants, and right now they have essentially a three game lead on the rest of the conference (they have to lose three more games for anyone else to pass them), so they have some give here. The Panthers nearly beat them the first time, just as they have nearly beaten a whole bunch of other teams. The Panthers passing game matches up well with the Falcons, and I don't think the Falcons can really hold down Cam in the running game. Also, the Panthers defense is a lot better than it was back in late September. I think they get back here, but that line does scare me as it is so low, so I will buy half a point the other direction.

Falcons 23  Panthers 27  (CAR bought up to +3.5)


Philadelphia Eagles (3-9)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)  (TB -7.5)

I don't know if I trust the Buccaneers to cover a touchdown spread. The Eagles defense is historically bad right now (though I think their streak of giving up 120+ passer ratings will end here), but their offense looked alive. A lot of that is Bryce Brown, who now faces a good rush defense. Overall, I have no idea where to go with this game (I have little idea about of lot of games this week), so I'll go with my gut.

Eagles 24  Buccaneers 30  (PHI +7.5)


St. Louis Rams (5-6-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-7)  (BUF -3)

I have a little more confidence here. The Rams are a good team that had two awful games (vs GB and vs NE in London). Other than their Week 1 loss to Detroit, they've lost to great QBs playing great, or to very good to great defenses (MIA, NYJ, CHI). The Bills are neither of these things. The Rams, believe it or not, have a shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule coming up. This is a winnable game for them, as their defense can slow down the Bills short passing game. The Bills defense also isn't good enough to shut down the Rams offense. I like the Rams in this position.

Rams 23  Bills 20  (STL +3)


Dallas Cowboys (6-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)  (CIN -3)

I have seen a lot of people picking the Cowboys here. I absolutely disagree. The Bengals are an awful matchup for the Cowboys. The Bengals, quietly, have one of the best d-lines in the NFL this year, spearheaded around Geno Atkins, and the Cowboys have suffered badly against good deep d-lines like Cleveland and Chicago. The Cowboys defense has also been regressing in recent weeks, and the Bengals offense is getting better (good to know that BenJarvus is alive again). The Bengals can smell a surprise return to the playoffs (I guess the Cowboys could too), and they also have revenge on their minds with corners PacMan and Terrence Newman. The line is also low. Give me the Bengals, but I'll buy half a point to be safe.

Cowboys 20  Bengals 31  (CIN bought to -2.5)


Miami Dolphins (5-7)  @  San Francisco 49ers  (8-3-1)  (SF -10)

This is a high line, but the 49ers have been dominant against their middling AFC foes (beating the Jets 34-0 and the Bills 41-3). Colin Kaepernick should be able to get time against that pass rush, but I don't think their offense can reach that level against a good defense of Miami that they did agaisnt the Jets and Bills. The more interesting side of the matchup is the Dolphins offense against the 49ers defense. The Dolphins offense has really regressed from midseason, and I think that continues here. I hate picking favorites on double-digit lines, but including the next game, I might do it three times, which I hate. I'll pick the 49ers, but that could be another mistake on what could be a bad week.

Dolphins 13  49ers 24  (SF -10)


Arizona Cardinals (4-8)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-5)  (SEA -10)

My sickness continues in liking the Cardinals. Of course, the one week I decide to not pick them, they lost to Mark Sanchez/Greg McElroy. Lost in the Cardinals 0-8 run is that their defense has made a nice comeback recently and is back to playing great. They were good against Rodgers (holding him to near 50% completions), brilliant against Matt Ryan (five picks), good against Bradford, and great against Sanchez. Now they get Russell Wilson. The only issue with picking the Cardinals to win is their offense is atrocious, but I can't, in good conscience, pick all three double-digit favorites to cover, and this being a division game, I feel like the Cardinals might come to play.

Cardinals 13  Seahawks 20  (ARZ +10)


New Orleans Saints (5-7)  @  New York Giants (7-5)  (NYG -5)

So, the last three times Drew Brees played the Giants, the Saints won and scored 30, 48 and 49 points. Of course, those were the three best Saints teams in the Brees era (2006, 2009, 2011), also, the two 40+ point games were in the Superdome. This is outdoors, in December, when the Saints are nowhere near that good. Other than one close win against Atlanta, the Saints haven't beaten a single good team, and usually looked pretty bad in the process. The Giants will probably know how to attack a Steve Spagnuolo defense as well. The Giants are now more desperate in this game, because they probably don't want to enter the last three games of the season in 2nd place with that schedule. I think the Giants finally figure out the Saints with Brees to a point, and outscore them anyway against what is still a soft defense.

Saints 24  Giants 31  (NYG -5)


Detroit Lions (4-8)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-4)  (GB -6.5)

My sickness with the Cardinals is carrying to Detroit. The reason not to pick them (apart from Green Bay being better and at home) is the Lions are coming off of three demoralizing home losses that they all led with 2:00 to go (Packers, Texans, Colts). That said, the Lions rarely get blown out, and their defense knows how to play a Rodgers-led Packers offense (ironically, not a Flynn-led Packers offense). With Rodgers at QB, the Packers haven't scored over 30 against the Lions since 2009. The Packers owe the Lions after stealing a win three weeks ago, and with a much larger game coming up next week against the Bears, I think they give it back. It might be my dumbest pick of the year, because there certainly is a scenario where the Packers roll, but I think the Lions pull it off. The Packers have been playing with fire at home all season long, and they finally get burnt. But, just to be safe, I'll buy a full point for the Lions, so they get a TD buffer.

Lions 27  Packers 23  (DET bought to +6.5)


Houston Texans (11-1)  @  New England Patriots (9-3)  (NE -3)

I would love to pick the Texans. If this game was in Houston and if Jonathan Joseph was playing (basically, what could be the situation come January 20th) I probably would, but I think this game not only means more for the Pats (holding onto the bye), but is the type of game the Patriots usually win. Outside of their memorable spanking from the Saints (well, memorable to me) in 2009, I can't think off hand of a time the Patriots lost a MNF game. The line is low, which actually makes me nervous. Very smart people in Vegas are telling us that the Texans are much closer than most would think, but I do think the Patriots win this round. Whether they do in January is a different story.

Texans 24  Patriots 30  (NE -3)


Enjoy the Games

NFL 2012: Week 14 Power Rankings & The Rest

OK, so, we are at the three-quarter pole this year. Every team has played 12 games. At this point, I care less about how teams are perceived in total, but how they stack up in their conferences. The playoffs are approaching. So, I'm still going to review my picks like normal, and rank next week's games like normal, but the other two parts will have changes. First, instead of a 32-1 power ranking, I will be doing one for each conference, breaking them down into groups of non-playoff teams, playoff hopefuls and the top of each conference. I still will make playoff projections, but I'll make it more detailed by giving a prediction for each team's remaining games. Finally, I am adding an award watch part as well.


Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Falcons (-3)  over  Saints  (CORRECT  =  1-0  =  +1000)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bears (-3.5)  over  Seahawks  (WRONG  =  1-1  =  -1000)
Vikings (+9)  over  Packers  (PUSH  =  1-1-1  =  0)
STL (+7.5*)  over  Rams  (CORRECT  =  2-1-1  =  +1000)
Jets (-4.5)  over  Cardinals  (WRONG  =  2-2-1  =  -1000)
Panthers (-2.5*)  over  Chiefs  (WRONG  =  2-3-1  =  -1200)
Colts (+5)  over  Lions  (CORRECT  =  3-3-1  =  +1000)
Patriots (-7)  over  Dolphins  (PUSH  =  3-3-2  =  0)
Jagaurs (+5.5)  over  Bills  (WRONG  =  3-4-2  =  -1000)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Texans (-6)  over  Titans  (CORRECT  =  4-4-2  =  +1000)
Broncos (-7)  over  Buccaneers  (CORRECT  =  5-4-2  =  +1000)
Browns (-3)  over  Raiders  (CORRECT  =  6-4-2  =  +1000)
Bengals (-1.5)  over  Chargers  (CORRECT  =  7-4-2  =  +1000)
Ravens (-8.5)  over  Steelers  (WRONG  =  7-5-2  =  -1000)
Eagles (+10)  over  Cowboys  (CORRECT  =  8-5-2  =  +1000)
Giants (-2.5)  over  Redskins  (WRONG  =  8-6-2  =  -1000)

Week 13: 8-6-2  (LOCK: 1-0;  UPSET: 0-1)  (+1,800)

Year-to-Date: 106-79-7  (LOCK: 11-2;  UPSET: 9-4)  (+26,800)

Best Picks: Nothing really that close this week.


Power Rankings


AFC

Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes*

* - for the rest of the season, the blurbs for this section will be really, really short.

16.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-10  =  188-322)

I'm happy they got their win, for more than one reason. Of course, there is the obvious reason of them fighting through the adversity of losing a teammate (a teammate that, let's remember, killed someone), and also the reason that they will avoid losing all their games at home. That should never happen.


15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-10  =  206-342)

I guess Chad Henne wouldn't make that team decent all of a sudden, huh? Also, is Maurice Jones-Drew even alive at this point?


14.) Oakland Raiders  (3-9  =  235-376)

No one can stat-pad like Carson Palmer, who is going to have the worst 4,500 yard season of all time. Same with Brandon Myers, who is even more quietly having a good season at Tight End. 


13.) Tennessee Titans  (4-8  =  248-359)

Well, their defense didn't quit, but the offense kept giving the ball away. You can't do any of that if you want to beat a 10-1 team.


12.) New York Jets  (5-7  =  228-296)

Personally, I don't think Greg McElroy is the answer, but I hope he gets the rest of the season to prove himself. It will help that he gets to face a soft slate of defenses.


11.) San Diego Chargers  (4-8  =  258-257)

Something is very, very wrong with Philip Rivers. I excused his lackluster 2011 season as a one-off abberation, but this is now really wrong. He doesn't have that beautiful deep ball. In the end, it looks like Philip Rivers will flame out far earlier than anyone would have imagined.


10.) Miami Dolphins  (5-7  =  227-249)

Good performance by that defense, but I am worried about Ryan Tannehill. He was OK against Seattle, but he missed open guys all game against New England. Not a good sign to play that way against a bad defense.


9.) Buffalo Bills  (5-7  =  277-337)

Good win for a team that has at least remained competitive and interesting throughout this season. It could have been so much more though.


8.) Cleveland Browns  (4-8  =  229-265)

They play the Chiefs next, and have a chance to get to 5 wins and win three straight games. That defense really is good, and they have a solid core. Just find a QB, for once.


The Muddled Mess of Mediocrity

7.) Indianapolis Colts  (8-4  =  265-306)

I have no idea how they won. I have no idea how Luck could have 30 incompletions and three picks, and the Colts still be able to win. I have no idea how Calvin Johnson didn't have 250 yards receiving. I have no idea how they were able to pull that off. I have no idea how I might get my wish and the Colts drawing Baltimore in Round 1.


6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-5  =  254-230)

That was a huge win, with the Bengals also winning, as they stay level for the #6 seed with Ben presumably back this weekend. They have a chance to run the table with two easy games, and then a trip to Dallas and that gauntlet game against Cincinnati. That defense continues to improve each week, and is now starting to get turnovers. Whoever Cortez Allen is, he is playing really well at corner.


5.) Cincinnati Bengals  (7-5  =  302-260)

Take care of business. That is what the Bengals failed to do against the Dolphins and Browns earlier this year, but that is what they've done the last two weeks, blowing out the Raiders and then going to San Diego in a tricky game and beating them. Their schedule is a bit harder than Pittsburgh's down the stretch, but they still have a chance.


The Team that Can't Possibly go to New Orleans, Could They?

4.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-3  =  303-242)

Well, the worst 9-2 team of all time (as judged by how people perceived them) is now just one of the worst 9-3 teams of all time. How could the Ravens blow a 13-3, and 20-13 lead at home against a Charlie Batch led team. The Ravens got one of the biggest breaks of all time, with Roethlisberger's injury coinciding with both games against Baltimore, and they couldn't take advantage. They still have a shot at a bye, but it will be tough. Either way, I don't think anyone will pick them to go on the road in the Divisional Round and win if they get there.


One of These Three Will be in New Orleans, Won't They?

3.) New England Patriots  (9-3  =  430-260)

The Patriots finally faced a real defense and a team that wouldn't butt-fumble, and despite still getting some breaks (the Dolphins punter going out there with them greasy hands), the Patriots looked mortal. It took a week, but we might be seeing the real impact of losing Gronkowski. Everyone remaining is coverable. Brandon Lloyd was totally taken away. The run game didn't work (admittedly, it did when they needed it to late). The o-line took a hit. He better be back soon for them.


2.) Denver Broncos  (9-3  =  349-240)

The Broncos are doing what the Colts perfected, which is giving up garbage time points to make games seem closer than they were. They did this against the Chargers (winning 30-23 instead of 30-16), and did it again here. Matt Prater is now missing field goals. That said, they made a good offense look totally average, and took over after a slow second half. It is easy for them to look past these games to that showdown with Baltimore, but trailing at half time woke them up, and they woke up in a rage.


1.) Houston Texans  (11-1  =  351-221)

If they win next week, not only will they almost assuredly get the #1 seed, but they will have one of the best resumes of any recent team (maybe with the exception of the '07 and '10 Pats) in terms of who they beat. Anyway, the defense returned to form, and the offense did just enough, as they always seem to do. Next week is huge, and getting Jonathan Joseph back for the game is about as big.


NFC

Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes

16.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-9  = 217-320)

Nick Foles looked good. He looked confident. Bryce Brown looked even better. The defense was just terrible. Kudos to CaptainComeback, but the Eagles have allowed opposing QBs to have a passer rating above 120 for the 6th straight game.


15.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-8  =  186-234)

The defense looked good, and Patrick Peterson looked even better. The offense was just terrible. How can Ryan Lindley continue to be played. The only reason I can think of is Ken Whisenhunt is basically firing himself at this point.


14.) Carolina Panthers  (3-9  =  235-292)

 Tough position for them, but they should have been able to win that game. The Panthers played it like they weren't even aware the Chiefs only true ability on offense is their run game.


13.) Detroit Lions  (4-8  =  300-315)

They could so easily be 7-5 right now, as they've blown three straight home games. The Lions will rue their missed chances, but I still do like this team long term.


The Even More Muddled Mess of Mediocrity

12.) St. Louis Rams  (5-6-1  =  221-267)

They are 4-0-1 against other NFC West teams. Their only game left is @SEA, which seems like it would probably be a loss, but if the Rams could win that game, they might be the worst team ever to go undefeated in their division. They play really tough and Janoris Jenkins has really come on the last couple of weeks. He has a bright future, as does that team.


11.) New Orleans Saints  (5-7  =  321-327)
I want to make an assertion: Discounting Philip Rivers because of his regression, Drew Brees is the most run-game dependent great QB of this era. He has yet to really have a great season with a bad run game, something Peyton has done all the time, and something Brady, Rodgers, Eli and Ben have done in the past.


10.) Minnesota Vikings  (6-6  =  262-272)

They have an issue at QB that needs addressing. Christian Ponder might do a fine poor-man's-Rich-Gannon impression, but he is definitely not the long term answer in any rational line of thinking. They are wasting away Adrian Peterson's incredible career (although you can make the argument that his fumbles played a part in wasting away the 2009 NFC Title Game), and it is sad to see. He is so good, but the QB is so average, that the team is stuck being third banana in a two-team division.


9.) Dallas Cowboys  (6-6  =  280-295)

Good win by the Cowboys, who could have folded numerous times, but it folding is hard to do when playing the Eagles defense as currently constituted. I'm just so grateful that they gave up that punt return late which allowed the Eagles to cover. Thank you so much, 'Boys. The Cowboys still have a shot at the division, but they have to win at least one of their two games against the AFC North.


8.) Washington Redskins  (6-6  =  312-301)

They have a realistic chance of winning the division, but I don't think they will pull it off with the schedule they have coming up. They still host Dallas (who would love to pull some revenge off), and a trip to Cleveland could be tricky. That said, the schedule is easier than the Giants. They actually have a shot at the division, which is scary.


7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-6  =  333-285)

They looked really inferior in that game, despite being ahead at halftime. Josh Freeman just couldn't do anything after a hot start in the first quarter, but that isn't a surprise against what is becoming a really good pass defense. Their defense played well, but this team is still a few steps away. What scares me, though, is I could have written the exact same first three sentences about the 2010 Buccaneers.

 
The Team Who's Rookie QB and Flaky Play on the Road Will End Their Chances

6.) Seattle Seahawks  (7-5  =  242-202)

Big, big win for a frustrating team. They blow multiple leads to the Dolphins one week and then drive 97 and 80 yards to win the game against the Bears. Great game by Russell Wilson when his run game wasn't exactly working. I would sign up for a playoff rematch right now. That said, I fear for that type of team in the playoffs.


The Only Fun Race Left

5.) Green Bay Packers  (8-4  =  296-259)

I still have them behind Chicago because outside of two games (@ HOU, @ STL), their offense hasn't clicked all year. Even yesterday, Aaron Rodgers had a good game, but the team deservedly just mustered 23 points. They haven't played great at home all year long, which makes next weeks game more interesting as they host Detroit on SNF. Their defense did look a bit better though, and they should get Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back soon.


4.) Chicago Bears  (8-4  =  294-198)

Another game they should have won. It comes down to this, if they win their Week 15 game at home against the Packers, they can hold onto the division, and maybe even still get a bye. On the other side, they could drop to the #6 seed because the Seahawks have the head-to-head over the Bears. Jay Cutler looked good, but for the second time in three games, the defense looked a little slow.


The Three Teams that will Most Likely Get to New Orleans, but are Far Less Sure Things than those Three in the AFC

3.) New York Giants  (7-5  =  321-243)

I still think the Giants pull together, finish 3-1 and win the division, but that was a tough and potentially devastating loss for the Giants. Their defense looked completely unable to stop the run, again. The Giants right now have to man up and go on a run, or they will blow a division they once led by two games. For a team that is used to stepping up in big moments, that was a failure.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (8-3-1  =  289-171)

I really wanted another tie for them. I would wonder if they tied both games if they could petition the NFL to just give the Rams and 49ers a win and a loss. Anyway, this is the first question to Jim Harbaugh's plan to go with Colin Kaepernick. His reasoning was the Kap had the "hot hand", and now that hand is no longer all that hot. My guess is he stick with Kaepernick, but that decision looks far more precarious now than it did last week.


1.) Atlanta Falcons  (11-1  =  317-229)

The NFC has now become way more muddled than the NFC, and it is because of that that I have the Falcons, the worst 11-1 team of all time, at #1. They still haven't lost a home game, and their defense has been solid all year long. Despite the gobs of people that will pick against them come divisional weekend, that will not be an easy place to play. They won't lose 48-21, I'll tell you that.


Playoff Projections

AFC

7.) Cincinnati Bengals  (10-6  -  vs DAL (W),  @ PHI (W),  @ PIT (L),  @ BAL (W))
******************
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (10-6  -  vs SD (W),  @ DAL (L),  vs CIN (W),  vs CLE (W))*
5.) Indianapolis Colts  (11-5  -  vs TEN (W),  @ HOU (L),  @ KC (W),  vs HOU (W))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5  -  @ WAS (W),  vs DEN (L), vs NYG (W),  @ CIN (L)) 
3.) New England Patriots (12-4  -  vs HOU (L),  vs SF (L),  @ JAX (W), vs MIA (W))
2.) Denver Broncos  (13-3  -  @ OAK (W),  @ BAL (W), vs CLE (W), vs KC (W))
1.) Houston Texans (14-2  -  @ NE (W), vs. IND (W), vs MIN (W), @ IND (L))

* - Steelers get in over the Bengals because of head-to-head record (2-0)


NFC

6.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6  -  vs ARZ (W),  @ BUF (W),  vs SF (L),  vs STL (W))
5.) Green Bay Packers  (11-5  -  vs DET (W),  @ CHI (L),  vs TEN (W),  @ MIN (W))
4.) New York Giants  (10-6  -  vs NO (W),  @ ATL (W),  @ BAL (L),  vs PHI (W))
3.) San Francisco 49ers  (11-4-1  -  vs MIA (W),  @ NE (L),  @ SEA (W),  vs ARZ (W))
2.) Chicago Bears  (12-4  -  @ MIN (W),  vs GB (W),  @ ARZ (W),  @ DET (W))
1.) Atlanta Falcons (14-2  -  @ CAR (W),  vs NYG (L),  @ DET (W),  vs TB (W))


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10)  @  Cleveland Browns (4-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
15.) New York Jets (5-7)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) St. Louis Rams (5-6-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "What Actually Motivates the Teams in These Games" Sunday, with six teams, none of them with any realistic playoff chances (how bad are they: The Rams probably have the best chance). Anyway, the big stories are the Jets can string their fans along one more game, the Browns can actually get a three game win streak, and the Rams or Bills will have six wins.


13.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Miami Dolphins (5-7)  @  San Francisco 49ers  (8-3-1)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "If teams play games between a good team and a bad team, does it actually really happen?" Sunday, as I have really nothing to say about these teams. The Eagles have a little bit of momentum on offense, but the Eagles pass defense has been beyond atrocious since they fired Juan Castillo.


11.) Arizona Cardinals (4-8)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-5)  (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Denver Broncos (9-3)  @  Oakland Raiders (3-9)  (TNF - NLFN)
9.) Tennessee Titans (4-8)  @  Indianapolis Colts (8-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Chicago Bears (8-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Divisional Games are Always Either Really Interesting, or Really Disappointing, and this Weekend Will Prove It" Sunday. Here we have four divisional games where one team is good and the other isn't. The Cardinals will look to avoid a 9th straight loss, and Ryan Lindley will look to avoid being the worst QB imagineable again. The Broncos get a short week, which could be tricky, I guess. The Colts look to essentially clinch a playoff spot, and the Bears look to keep pace with the Packers before their Week 15 game.


7.) San Diego Chargers (4-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (11-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "If Trap Games are Real, Here are Two of Them" Sunday, as the Steelers, hopefully with Roethlisberger back for the game, get a reeling Chargers team. The Steelers have generally owned the Chargers during the Rivers era in San Diego, but there is always a chance for things to change. The Falcons passed another test, and get another one here against a semi-dangerous Panthers team who came within one bomb to Roddy White of beating Atlanta in Atlanta.


5.) Dallas Cowboys (6-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)  (1:00 - FOX)   

I call it "Battle of the Wild Card Hopefuls" Sunday, as both teams look to keep pace in teh Wild Card race. The Cowboys are further away, having lost to Seattle earlier in the season (and Chicago, if they continue to fall), but are playing well right now. The Bengals are playing really well, and have dominated their last two home games. This is a type of game the Bengals should win, and they need to as that Week 16 game looms larger and larger.


4.) New Orleans Saints (5-7)  @  New York Giants (7-5)  (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Detroit Lions (4-8)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-4)  (SNF - ESPN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (9-3)  @  Washington Redskins (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

Keeping Pace is important, and all these three better teams have to. The Giants have historically been awful against teh Saints during the Brees era, including giving up 48 and 49 points to the Saints in their last two meetings. Both of those games were against better Saints teams in the Superdome, though. The Lions should have beaten the Packers (just like they should have beaten the Texans and Colts) three weeks ago, and get a shot to return the favor here, and the Ravens look to keep their two-game lead, and outside shot at a bye, over the Steelers. That is also a nice rivalry game, and for the first time, the Redskins really have something to bring to the table with RGIII.


1.) Houston Texans (11-1)  @  New England Patriots (9-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

And now we get to the best game of the Week, and at least on paper going in, one of the best games of the year. If the Texans win this game, just give them the #1 seed. They would be 12-1, have a two game lead over the rest of the conference, and have a head-to-head win over the Patriots, Broncos and Ravens. The Patriots, with a win, would be in striking distance of stealing that #1 seed, and put them in great position to hold onto at least the #2 seed. It should be a contrast in styles. Pass-heavy teams have done well against Houston, but they should have Jonathan Joseph back, which should help.


Award Watch

Coach of the Year

3.) Mike Smith (ATL)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Lovie Smith (CHI)

I'm not sure if an interim has ever won the award, so I'm not putting Bruce Arians here. I have Lovie Smith on top just because of how good his defense has been, but Kubiak and Smith have good shots as they lead the best teams in a weak year overall for miracle stories.


DROTY

3.) Chandler Jones (DE - NE - 6 sacks, 3 FF, 18 Tackles)
2.) Janoris Jenkins (CB - STL -3 INTs, 2 FRs, 3 TDs, 44 Tackles)
1.) Lavonte David (OLB - TB - 87 Tackles, 1 INT, 3 FF)

All three players are in different situations right now. Chandler Jones, who is currently hurt, has cooled off recently, while Janoris Jenkins has three TDs in the last two games. In the end, I'm placing the most consistent player at the top, as Lavonte David has been key in helping the Buccaneers become the league's best run defense.


OROTY

3.) Doug Martin (RB - TB -236 rush, 1,106 yards, 4.7 y/r, 9 TDs, 32 rec, 374 yds)
2.) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS -
1.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND - 279/503 (55.5%), 3,596 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs, 5 rush TDs)

The two QBs are now taking over (I guess Russell Wilson is there too, but he inherited a better team). For right now, because of their better record (by two games), their close wins and his great performance in close games, I'm going with Luck, who is asked to do more, throw deeper, and carry a worse team, over RGIII.


DPOTY

3.) Charles Tillman (CB - CHI - 2 INTs, 2 TDs, 2 FRs, 8 FFs, 58 Tackles)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN - 15.0 Sacks, 5 FFs, 1 INT, 1 TD, 44 Tackles)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)

Tillman is holding onto that last spot, but Aldon Smith (who is still a sack machine but with little else) from his early season performance, with TDs, and a ridiculous amount of forced fumbles. Von Miller has been great getting to the passer, dominant against the run, and now with a game-changing interception. In the end, though, JJ Watt is having one of the greatest seasons ever for a 3-4 DE. He is now not #1 in sacks (but just 2 behind Aldon), but still incredibly high at Passes Defensed for a lineman, and dominant against the rush.


OPOTY

3.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET - 86 Rec, 1,428 yards, 119.0 y/g, 5 TDs)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)

Peyton gets the nod for being the best QB so far, but the top two are having incredible years. Calvin is on pace to beat Jerry Rice's record for Yards in a season. His TD numbers are down, but that is mostly because the Lions are using him almost as a decoy in the red zone. I'm giving it to Peterson right now, though, because he's come back from ACL surgery and having his best year yet. He has a legitimate shot at 2,000 yards. He has no passing game to relieve pressure off of him, but he's continued to play extremely well.


MVP

5.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE - 298/460 (64.8%), 3,537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.6 RAT)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB- 279/414 (67.4%), 3,124 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs, 105.0 RAT)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)

Peterson makes the list because he is the sole reason the Vikings are even close to the Wild Card hunt. Watt gets there because he is the best player on the league's best team, and he's having the biggest impact of any defensive player that I've seen in years. The top three are the league's best three QBs. I have Brady behind the other two because he has the best talent around him of the three, and a reliable running game. Rodgers has had to go through incredible upheaval at the receiver position and a weak o-line (he doesn't help matters), and still been very good. In the end, Manning gets it right now for having almost as good stats (in some ways, better), and doing it on a new team with new weapons, and completely changing the franchise in Denver.


More to come later in the Week.