The Peyton Manning era Colts were one of the most consistent, dominant forces the league has ever seen for an extended period of time. Sure, they lost some flukey playoff games, and disappointed by only winning one Super Bowl and reaching 'just' two. That said, when your team wins 10, 12, 12, 14, 12, 13, 12, 14, 10 games in nine straight seasons, then you earn the respect you have. Peyton Manning was the head, but it was really about a perfect mix in Indianapolis, built in the vision created by Bill Polian (find a QB, get players around the QB, get guys to get to the other team's QB) and executed by Tony Dungy. Jim Irsay was the King, the man that foot the bill, but it was the Princes in Polian, Manning and Dungy that made it all work. It was Camelot, playing out in that loud dome (and then slightly less loud dome) for a decade, and it was beautiful. In revolutionized the way football was played, making the no-huddle less of a gimmick and more of a standard, making wide-open passing games geared to make 4,000 yard seasons ordinary, the norm.
The Colts entered into Camelot in 2002 after spending four years building it (The Manning-Mora era), and were there for nine years. Then it all went to hell. Polian's magic lessened in the draft, and Manning's body betrayed him. Dungy had left, replaced by a figurehead leader who had little ability as a coach outside of getting his players to like him. It was staggering how quickly it all fell apart. 14-2 one year, and then 2-14 two years later. Sure, Manning, who has basically proven through that decline just how staggeringly invaluable he was, was gone, but so were other guys like Marvin, Edge, Sanders, Brackett, Clark and others that left after last year's housecleaning. The Colts were back to what they were before the Manning era, which meant they were back to irrelevance. After years of getting the maximum amount of prime-time games, the Colts got 15 one PM games this season. Enter Prince Andrew.
Andrew Luck was lucky in a way that he didn't replace Peyton Manning directly, but replaced what could only be described as the worst QB to ever play for the Colts (Curtis Painter) and the guy who is infamous for running out of the back of the end zone (Dan Orlovsky). Andrew Luck, though, was the guy who was picked to carry that torch, to be the Young to Peyton's Montana, the Rodgers to Peyton's Favre. Andrew Luck has been about as good as advertised. His overall numbers in standard ways of measurement seem ordinary, but when you take into account the context (his brilliance on 3rd Downs, his volume of deep throws, his lack of a good run-game or o-line) he's so much more than that. He was absolutely brilliant against Miami, four weeks after outplaying Aaron Rodgers. But the Colts return to prominence has so many more layers than just Andrew Luck. It actually starts with one man, the main man, Jim Irsay.
Jim Irsay had one of the hardest decisions in NFL History last March. Irsay and the people around him were sure Andrew Luck would be great. He had a lot more long-term value than Peyton Manning had. He would be there for 15 years, while Peyton, if he even played, for only five. But that "if he even played part" was the real killer. Peyton Manning was one of the ultimate 'Deal or No Deal' gambles. Take the risk and resign him, he could have very well never recovered and been a money pit that Irsay would be paying into for years. Of course, the other side of the risk is that Peyton Manning could have turned into what he has turned into (the best QB in the NFL in 2012) just as easily. Irsay even had questions outside of the QB.
For years, Bill Polian ran the Colts. He was the true Boss. No one gave Irsay credit outside of his ability to stay away from the football stuff. It worked brilliantly for a long time, but it all turned in Week 16 of 2009, when Polian made the decision to forego 16-0 to rest. It worked (the Colts did reach the Super Bowl), but Polian made a mess of the PR side of the decision, and became more clammed and dictatorial in the months and years following. That all was fine when the team was a 12+ win a year team, but when they fell apart after the Brain left (Manning) Polian was exposed, in a way. That team was built for Peyton Manning, and Manning was gone, and then the team wasn't built for anything. Irsay had his chance to take the team back, to became a vocal owner again, to stop sitting in the darkness and ceding control to Polian, and he took it. He made the decision, and really, after firing Polian, the Manning decision was pretty much set.
Irsay wanted to start a "New Era", and he did it in full. He cut Manning, but then more quietly cut Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark and Gary Brackett on the same day a couple weeks later. In a span of a fwe weeks, Four of the most important players of the 2006-2010 Colts were gone. This really was a New Era, and Irsay was in more control. He brought in his guy in Ryan Grigson, a rising scouting star in Philadelphia, and they brought in their coach (Chuck Pagano) a football lifer who was beloved by the Baltimore defense. Together, they drafted Andrew Luck, and the 'New Era' was set into place.
In April, the first steps were taken, as in the span of three days, the Colts, in Ryan Grigson's first draft, the Colts landed Andrew Luck, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, T.Y. Hilton and Vick Ballard. Five Offensive Players in one draft. So far, only one has been a disappointment (Fleener), while Luck has been Luck, Dwayne Allen is on a pace to have more catches or yards than Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez in their rookie season, T.Y. Hilton is showing flashes of brilliance, and Vick Ballard has been a surprisingly good runner. Ryan Grigson hit a home run in his first draft. Next Up is the defense, but this offense is set. It was all working well, until late September, when the coach got his news.
Chuck Pagano's cancer has somehow inspired this team more than I could have imagined. The Colts were obviously fueled by the love of their coach in their dramatic 30-27 win over the Packers, but that emotion seemed to tire them in a soulless 35-9 loss the next week to the Jets, but since it has been four straight wins. Bruce Arians took over the reigns, but Chuck's message still is heard strong in that locker room. His presence is still felt. He'll be there a long time, coaching a great QB and getting new players each year by a GM who aced his first test. The Colts have truly built their "new era" and done it more quickly than anyone could have imagined.
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Of course, here is where I will pause to remember what could have been. There will still be one "What-If?" hanging over the 2012 season, and that is "What-If the Colts kept Peyton Manning?"
There are two scenarios here, one a lot better than the other. The Colts could have either kept Manning and still drafted Luck (the worst-case scenario) or they could have kept Manning and traded the pick for a package that would have garnered a little more than what the Rams got for RGIII (three 1st round picks).
Keep Manning and Pick Luck.) The team is probably better than what they are now, because as good as Luck has been, Peyton has been appreciably better. Peyton Manning looks healthy enough to play at least four years more (unless the nerve issue comes up again, which it shouldn't), which would last through Andrew Luck's rookie deal. The Colts would have had to make a decision to sign Luck long-term without him starting any important games. The Colts are good in the immediate, but probably not as good as what Denver will be this year. Anyway, I don't think this scenario would have ever happened. Let's get to the more interesting one.
Keep Manning, trade the pick.) Peyton Manning stars on this team that could have afforded to resign Clark or others. Even if they don't, they still pick a TE (let's say Allen), and a receiver to pair with Wayne and Avery. To make matters easy, say they get the same package the Redskins gave up, which was future 1st Round Picks and the #6 & 39 picks this year. The #6 pick is probably used to a get a good defensive player, like Dontari Poe or Fletcher Cox to help that D-Line that is an issue in the transition to the 3-4. The #39 was used for Janoris Jenkins, but guys like Cordy Glenn (who's played well) or Alsho Jeffery (can you imagine) were available. Say they pick Jefferey. They leave the draft with some D-Lineman, Alshon Jeffery, Dwayne Allen, Vick Ballard and others. Peyton Manning might not have Luck's mobility, but he has much better pocket presence and this Colts O-Line is better than the Colts o-lines from 2009-2010 anyway. That team is definitely better than this Colts team, and they are probably around 8-1 right now. They probably still lose to Chicago (a loss which is more understandable each week), but Luck is the reason they lost to the Jets in his one truly bad, bad game, and they don't drop the game to Jacksonville. More importantly, the Colts are more of a real contender in a weak AFC. Then, going further, they have extra 1st round picks each of the next two years. Personally, I would have picked this option.
Many people use the justification that Luck is a pick for 15 years, while Manning is for 4-5, but that isn't the only things to consider. It isn't really Luck for 15 vs. Manning for 5, but Luck for 15 vs. Manning for 5 and whoever is next for 10. So, does Manning produce enough value over the next 5 years to make up for the difference? Considering Luck for 15 is impossible to quantify (who knows if Luck is healthy 10 years from now), so there is definitely a chance that Manning could have. Anyway, we will never know, but before many people claim Irsay made the right choice, let's remember just how good Manning has been in 2012 and what could have been in 2012 for the Colts.
