NFL 2012: Week 3 Power Rankings

God, I hate the Patriots. Forget the fact that I hate them because they've personally been the team that beat my teams more often than not, but I just hate picking their games ATS. I know that ever since the Patriots became an uber-Public team late in 2007 the Patriots have been really, really bad at covering spreads over 10. Yet, I fell for it, knowing and saying full well that the Cardinals front could give the Patriots problems. I also hate them because they almost pulled the win out of their be-hind anyway. I mean, come on. Arizona deserved that game. The Patriots deserved to lose. They better shore up that o-line and hope that Hernandez's injury isn't all too serious, especially with little communication right now between Brady and Lloyd and Welker being marginalized. Anyway, I also regret not picking the Steelers to cover, but it was a pretty good week, going 10-5-1. Hard to say a 19-12-1 start to the season is all that bad.

Looking Back at Last Week's Picks

Packers -5  (CORRECT = 1-0)
Giants -7.5  (WRONG = 1-1)
Patriots  -13.5  (WRONG = 1-2)
Colts  +1.5  (CORRECT = 2-2)
Panthers  +2.5  (CORRECT = 3-2)
Bills  -3  (CORRECT = 4-2)
Ravens  +2.5  (CORRECT = 5-2)
Raiders  -2.5  (WRONG = 5-3)
Bengals  -7  (PUSH = 5-3-1)
Texans  -7  (CORRECT = 6-3-1)
Seahawks  +3  (CORRECT = 7-3-1)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Rams  +3  (CORRECT = 8-3-1)
Jets  +5.5  (WRONG = 8-4-1)
Chargers  -6  (CORRECT = 9-4-1)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers  -6.5  (CORRECT = 10-4-1)
Broncos +2.5  (WRONG = 10-5-1)

Week 2: 10-5-1 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 19-12-1 (2-0; 2-0)

Best Picks: Obviously my wrong picks were wrong, but my correct picks were generally close to being right. I accurately predicted the Colts to beat the Vikings 23-20, and picked the 49ers to beat the Lions 27-17 (instead of 27-19) and the Panthers to beat the Saints 31-27 (instead of 34-27).


Power Rankings

32.) Tennessee Titans (0-2  =  23-72)

Man, that was a predictable beat-down in San Diego. What is wrong with their run-blocking. Sure, some of this is Chris Johnson, but that o-line is just awful at creating running lanes (or the Chargers are really, really good at run defense). The defense got a lot of pressure this week but couldn't cover Dante Rosario for their life. Just a putrid first two weeks, admittedly against two good teams.


31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2  =  30-53)

For years people used to claim that the AFC South was a weak division. They were wrong. They are now absolutely right. The Jaguars had -2 yards passing in the first half. Blaine Gabbert looking like a competent player didn't last all that long. Even their one TD was on a broken play that probably could have been intercepted. That defense provided some resistance, but it isn't like the Texans really needed to flex too much.



30.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2  =  41-75)

I am ecstatic that so far I am absolutely right about the Chiefs under the Romeo Crennel regime. Matt Cassel puts up nice stats, but once again showed absolutely no pocket presence or awareness of defenders, something that was evident even in his 2008 season in New England. The defense looks completely lost, and this time Tamba Hali was back.


29.) Minnesota Vikings (1-1  =  46-46)

I'll give the Vikings credit for a nice comeback in the 4th quarter (even if it was aided by the Colts going soft) and for Christian Ponder having another nice game (even if it was aided by a bunch of short, underneath throws). Adrian Peterson had a pretty bad game and looked more like a running back coming off of ACL surgery. Also, where was Jared Allen against an awful o-line.


28.) Cleveland Browns (1-1  =  43-51)

The Browns could have easily won thier first game ugly, and here they lost their second game prettily. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden both had good road debuts. That was the offense that Mike Holmgren was envisioning when he and the Browns selected those two players. This team is still frisky but I don't think they have what it takes to make most of those wins.



27.) Oakland Raiders (0-2  =  27-57)

The first week they lose because of a long-snapper. The second week they lose as they play a 1PM game on the East Coast in 95 degree weather wearing black. I hate this.


26.) Indianapolis Colts (1-1  =  44-61)

The legend begins in Week 2, I guess. Andrew Luck played really good, but more importantly, the o-line didn't look like the worst individual unit in the NFL this time around. The Colts version of the 3-4 was a lot more effective in this game as well. Granted, the Vikings aren't a great challenge, but the Colts have winnable home games (they have one coming up this week). They have to lock those down.



25.) Miami Dolphins (1-1 =  45-43)

Forget Ryan Tannehill, the real star was Reggie Bush. He's quietly actually had a nice career overall, but ever since he came to Miami he actually has been that pure #1 complete back that he never really was in New Orleans. That was a dominant effort by the Dolphins who took advantage of every Raider mistake to win that game.


24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1  =  47-51)

I'll say this, through two weeks I was wrong about the Buccaneers. Their defense still is not that good (as the season goes on that Week 1 run-defense performance will probably look more and more like a fluke) and they were absolutely torched in the secondary. Freeman played average, but made good use of Vincent Jackson, who had a vintage Chargers day (5-124). They blew that game, and the more it happens, the less Schiano's hard-ass line will work.


23.) St. Louis Rams (1-1  =  54-55)

This is a really frisky team. Jeff Fisher teams always play hard, and when they play the upper echelon teams (Packers, 49ers, Bears) they might get beat badly, but the Rams won't get blown out against an average team. Fisher teams just don't. Sam Bradford looked really comfortable. Of course, some part of that has to do with the Redskins two best pass-rushers leaving the game due to injury. Also, Danny Amendola is a really, really good player in his role.


22.) New Orleans Saints (0-2  =  59-76)

The Saints are just not that good right now. Their defense just does not have the personnel to play Spagnuolo's scheme at all. They don't have close to the pass rush talent that his teams in St. Louis and New York did. The offense looks really out-of-synch, and the receivers are not getting open at all for Brees, who has to rely on Graham and Sproles even more. Add it all up, and this is just not a good team right now.


21.) Washington Redskins (1-1  =  68-63)

They blew that game, and it really isn't their fault (other than Josh Morgan and his 15-yard penalty), but the loss of their two best pass rushers, which resulted in Bradford having way too much time and finding Amendola open over and over again. Griffin had another good game and this time without Pierre Garcon, and he showed his running ability more in this game. It was a tough loss, but another sign that the Redskins are going to be a fun, fun team.


20.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1  =  47-71)
 
Talk about a fun team. That was a really unexpected shootout in Cincinnati, and Andy Dalton and his top three targets were really up for the task. The Bengals defense, though, looks so much worse than what it was a year ago, and that is a problem going forward, but I think they will correct that side. The offense is set, and should be competitive against most teams.


19.) Buffalo Bills (1-1  =  63-65)

Well, those were the Bills that so many expected to contend for a Wild-Card spot coming into the season. That was the Bills D-Line that they have been building over the past two years. That was the Ryan Fitzpatrick that comes close to earning that ridiculous paycheck. However at the end of the day, those were the real Bills in Week 1 as well. I think the Week 2 Bills are closer to the real Bills, but that Week 1 version could show itself in any game.


18.) Detroit Lions (1-1  =  46-50)

I didn't like that last garbage-time TD drive by the Lions for one reason: I wanted Stafford to end the game with under 150 yards passing. That would've been a great lesson to all those who think that Stafford (and Brady, Brees and Rodgers) would all have seasons that are among the top 10-15 of all time for QBs. The D-Line needs to get more pressure, but the 49ers are a really good team, and they didn't look much worse than the Packers did against them.


17.) Carolina Panthers (1-1  =  44-40)

I can't overrate the Panthers after beating what could end up being a very mediocre Saints team, but it was good to see the Panthers offense in full force. The option runs by Newton. The great split of carries between DeAngelo and Stewart (but screw Tolbert for vulturing a TD). And of course to cap off the formula is a vintage Steve Smith day. All in all, a perfectly good day on offense for the Panthers.


16.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1  =  31-44)

I predicted a Cowboys loss, but even I couldn't imagine such a desolate performance. In the first half they were a little unlucky (bad interception, two major special teams mistakes) but in the 2nd half they seemed completly uninterested in attempting to come back on Seattle


15.) Seattle Seahawks (1-1  =  43-27)
 
I don't like the Seahawks road uniforms, but their home uniforms look great, and the team played great in them. I don't know if defense is making as much of a comeback as I expected, but the better defenses are really playing well early, and the Seahawks are one of them. Their secondary blanketed Romo's targets, and their pass rush got Romo to make bad throws. On offense, Russell Wilson wasn't great, but Marshawn Lynch was. Great defense and Marshawn is the recipe that works the best for the Seahawks.


14.) New York Jets (1-1  =  58-55)

Never overrate a team after a big win (see: 48-28 over Buffalo) and never underrate a team after a big loss (see: 10-27 against Pittsburgh). That was not an easy environment for the Jets to go to play a game, but I was surprised that the real story was the complete inability of the Jets offense to get anything going against a team missing Harrison and Polamalu. Mark Sanchez started good but finished the game dreadfully. The real test for the Jets starts in two weeks, when they welcome the 49ers and Texans to New York.


13.) Arizona Cardinals (2-0  =  40-34)

I knew that defensive front was good, but that was eye-opening. They are almost like the 49ers, but just slightly worse at most positions. Darnell Dockett was good as always, but Calais Campbell was dominant against the Patriots. Add to that Patrick Peterson playing incredibly well, and the Cardinals shut down the Patriots in a way that I have seen few teams do. Their offense did little, but they had a great drive to extend it to 20-9, the drive that locked down the game.


12.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0  =  41-39)

Sure, they are 2-0, but both were one point wins under slightly questionable circumstances. Against Cleveland, it was a dropped interception by the Browns right before the game-winning TD pass, and here it was a really soft OPI against Jacoby Jones on what could've been the game-clinching TD for Baltimore. The Eagles offense is humming (950 yards in the first two games) but really needs to limit turnovers going forward.


11.) Chicago Bears (1-1  =  51-44)

It was only one game on the road on a short week, but it looked like Mike Martz never even left Chicago on Thursday Night. Cutler is getting hammered for yelling at his lineman, and that is fine since Cutler played bad himself, but if there was ever a time to yell at your lineman, that was it. I still think long term the Bears are fine. That is most likely the worst their offense will play all season long, and their defense still held a desperate Packers team to 16 true offensive points.


10.) New York Giants (1-1  =  58-58)

Huge, huge win by the Giants. Eli Manning stared an 0-2 start (with both losses at home, to NFC teams) in teh face and responded from his miserable first half (that late pick-6 reminded me a lot of Matt Ryan's in the 2010 Divisional loss to Green Bay) with an incredible second half. That was the Giants offense working at its best, and it took advantage of a defense working at its worst. What a game. What a set of two receivers. But, was it just that the Buccaneers cannot play defense?


9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1  =  46-41)

Ranking the top-12 was pretty tough, especially since there are so few 2-0 teams this year. The Steelers looked really impressive defensively against a hot Jets team even when missing two of their best players on that side of the ball. Roethlisbeger had a really good game against a Jets pass rush that constantly got in his face. It was about as dominant an effort the Steelers will put in this season. The scary part is, again, they did it without Troy Polamalu or James Harrison.


8.) New England Patriots (1-1  =  52-33)

I had a pretty long debate about how far to drop the Patriots, but I think this is a fair drop. They just looked bad in that game. Sure, if Stephen Gostkowski just hits a kick they win the game, but they were only in that position because of a fluke fumble by Ryan Williams. They didn't deserve that game. I think their offense has quite a few problems. Mainly their o-line is not adapting well to losing Light, Koppen and Waters. I think they will adjust, but they have some tough defenses coming up.


7.) Denver Broncos (1-1 = 52-46)

So why am I still high on Denver? Mostly blind love of Peyton Manning, but also because they spotted the Falcons four turnovers and the games first 20 points, but still forced the Falcons to convert a clutch third down just to ice the game. Manning is the best QB ever at coming back and I think that much is still true. I actually don't think those interceptions were about his, but more lack of communication and one bad throw (the 2nd pick). His arm looked fine on a laser-post late to Eric Decker that wasn't caught because it was a little too far in front of Decker. The defense played great given the circumstances, adn that is a good sign. These next two home games are huge, though.
 

6.) Green Bay Packers (1-1  =  45-40)

I don't think the Packers defense ever plays that well again, but for one night it was like watching the Packers from 2010. They didn't have a lot of success against the Bears defense, but that was irrelevant since they owned the Bears offense. Rodgers is really having trouble beating 2-deep man defenses, as he is not the best QB at taking underneath options, and teams are really limiting the explosiveness of the Packers offense. That said, they played two of maybe the five or six best defenses these first two weeks. When the defenses get easier, Rodgers should get better.


5.) San Diego Chargers (2-0  =  60-24)

I'll admit, they have been really impressive this season. I have had a nasty habit of picking teams to do really well the year before they actually do well. For instance, I picked the Giants to make the Super Bowl before the 2010 season, and the White Sox to win the World Series in 2011. The Giants won in 2011, and teh White Sox will likely win the division in 2012. Last year I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl, and despite losing Vincent Jackson, the Chargers have been great through two weeks. They will have an interesting test this weekend with Atlanta, a good way to judge their real ability.


4.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0 = 67-45)

Yeah, I really wasn't that impressed by either team Monday Night (or in a way, impressed by both). Where was the high-flying Falcons offense. The Broncos spotted them 4 field goals on their first five drives and the Falcons still had to convert a huge third down just to ice the game. Matt Ryan played mistake-free (which was a lot better than his MNF counterpart) but that didn't make his performance all that great. They have a big test against maybe the other surprising but possibly legitimate 2-0 team coming up.


3.) Baltimore Ravens (1-1  =  67-37)

It is amazing that either the Ravens or Patriots, the two teams that played in the AFC Championship Game last season, will be 1-2 after this game. The Ravens could have easily won that game, but there are problems with that defense. It might just be the Eagles offense is better than any other team at racking up yards, but the Ravens defense played the definition of bend-but-don't-break. They need to cut that out against New England. Also, can Ray Rice get the ball more? He's been on fire in his limited rushes so far.


2.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-0  =  57-41)

Right now, the 49ers are a cut above the rest of the NFC. They are playing a game that worked extremely well in 1981 and 1984 for them (of course, Montana was better than Smith) and doing it in a completely different NFL. Beating their defense seems to be something of a herculean task right now. Running on them is nearly impossible, and because Willis and Bowman are so good in pass coverage they don't need to sub to face flex teams like the Patriots. As for that offense, it is the most exact small-ball offense I've seen in some time. I love watching them play, and I can't believe that they might actually be better than they were one year ago.


1.) Houston Texans (2-0  =  57-17) 

The Texans were statistically the best team in the NFL when Matt Schaub got hurt in 2011. The Packers, Ravens and 49ers had better records, but the Texans were the most complete team. Nothing has changed. Their offense still isn't running in 5th gear, but they haven't had to through two games. The run game just dominated the Jaguars, but that domination paled in comparison to what they did to the Jaguars offense. JJ Watt continues to play like a monster week after week, and the rest of that defense is as young and talented as any outside of San Francisco. It is amazing how the Texans rebounded from a truly disappointing 2010 (6-10 record after a 4-2 start) by hiring Wade Phillips, drafting JJ Watt, Connor Barwin and Ben Tate, and became the most complete team in the NFL in the process.


Ranking the Week 3 Games

These first three feature five bad teams and one average team. They have bad crowds, bad QBs, bad coaches. Just bad football.

16.) Buffalo Bills (1-1)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Detroit Lions (1-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)


These next three have decent teams against average teams, and include some exciting offenses. They at least could be higher scoring than that mess above.

13.) St. Louis Rams (1-1)  @  Chicago Bears (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)  @  Washington Redskins (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)


These next three feature three great defenses against three bad teams, but the bad teams are on the road. I probably don't have the guts to go through with this come time for picks, but I think one of these three road favorites will go down.

10.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)  @  Oakland Raiders (0-2)  (4:25 - CBS)
9.) San Francisco 49ers (2-0)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
8.) New York Jets (1-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)


Loser easily becomes the winner of the "Most Surprising 0-3/Disappointing team in teh NFL." If the Saints can't beat a bad defense in their dome, then turn out the lights on the 2012 Saints.

7.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)  @  New Orleans Saints (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)


These next two games are kind of similar prime-time games. Both have a preseason NFC favorite that hasn't looked exactly great through two games at home playing a primetime game on the road against a blue-clad team led by a young QB that can run. Of course the Giants/Panthers tilt will probably come close to doubling the point total of the Packers and Seahawks. In that vein, Aaron Rodgers gets his third straight game against a really good defense. I feel bad for all fantasy owners that have Aaron Rodgers (including me).

6.) New York Giants (1-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-1)  (TNF)
5.) Green Bay Packers (1-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (1-1)  (MNF)


 These next two are two really good simultaneous games on FOX. The Eagles and Cardinals pits the league's two most surprising 2-0 teams, both of whom one both of their games in dramatic fashion. The Cardinals defense at home probably will allow a lot fewer than 475 yards (the Eagles average through two games). As for the other, the AFC's most surprising 2-0 team gets a real good opponent in the Falcons...

4.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-0)  (4:05 - FOX)
3.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0)  @  San Diego Chargers (2-0)  (4:05 - FOX)
 

These last two not only feature four really good (and in some cases great) teams playing two late afternoon games against each other, but are two games that could have serious playoff implications come January. They are also the four defending AFC Division champions, and other than San Diego and Pittsburgh potentially winning the West or North, there is a chance all four repeat. These two games, the two in Week 14 and Week 15 (Texans @ Pats, Broncos @ Ravens) also will go a long way in deciding what teams get byes come January. Yet the other part is how desperate three of these teams are. We know the loser of the night game will be 1-2, but the Broncos could be as well, and that is bad given their schedule coming up.

2.) Houston Texans (2-0)  @  Denver Broncos (1-1)  (4:25)
1.) New England Patriots (1-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (1-1)  (SNF)

NFL 2012: Week 2 Picks

Because of the new Thursday Night Football schedule throughout the year, I'll make my quick TNF prediction before that game is played before making the rest on Friday.


Bears (1-0)  @ Packers (0-1)  (Packers -5)

That line seems high, but probably is due to desperation the Packers should be showing. As I mentioned in my power rankings/week in review post, the Packers have so much to lose here, as an 0-2 start with two home losses against two teams that figure to be in the playoff mix all season long is about as bad a start as a team can have. I don't expect the Packers defense to play all that well. Their coverage seemed even worse than it did last year. The Bears protect Cutler better now, and he should have time to score near 27. The key is the Packers offense, and if it is without Greg Jennings, they might really struggle. Jennings missed their only regular season loss in 2011 against the Chiefs, and without him the offense wasn't explosive enough to beat a good defense in KC. The Bears are a better defense, and usually play the Packers tough anyway, excluding that horror show last Christmas Night (Cutler and Forte both hurt by then). Just like last week with the 49ers, this is a statement game for the Bears, but I'll take desperation over statements between two teams that are pretty evenly matched.

Bears 20  Packers 27 (GB - 5)


AND NOW UPDATED:


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)  @  New York Giants (0-1)  (NYG -7.5)

The Giants better win this game, because if they don't they face the prospect or being 0-2 before heading the Carolina for a Thursday Night tilt. That's generally not a good position to be in. I think the Bucs dominant rush defense was a fluke, but either way, the Giants don't need a good running game to win this one. Josh Freeman wasn't great on Sunday, and the Giants defense should give him and that suspect line a lot of problems. Add in the desperation the Giants now face, and this one is pretty easy.

Buccaneers 13  Giants 30  (NYG -7.5 = MY LOCK OF THE WEEK)


Arizona Cardinals (1-0)  @  New England Patriots (1-0)  (NE -13.5)

This is a large line against a team that rarely gets blown out (Arizona) but I can see the point. I find it weird, though, that Vegas has immediately jumped on the Patriots after making them just 5.5 point favorites in Tennessee last week. Anyway, the Cardinals will provide a much larger test for the Patriots revamped o-line than the Titans proved. The Cards bring in a lot better beef up front with Dockett, Campbell, Branch and Washington behind them. I trust them more with Kolb than Skelton, but I just can't go against the Patriots, despite me thinking this line is about a field goal too high.

Cardinals 17  Patriots 31  (NE -13.5)


Minnesota Vikings (1-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (0-1)  (MIN -1.5)

The Vikings really showed enough in their weird win over the Jaguars that they should be favored on the road? Well, since the Colts showed nothing either, I guess so. The Vikings did make Blaine Gabbert look competent, so I'm expecting a pretty good game from Luck. Other than Jared Allen, that Vikings defense is pretty bare in the pass-rush department, so I'm expecting Luck to get more time as well. The only matchup on the other side I don't like is Peterson. Still, I can't see the Vikings at 2-0, and I think Luck plays well in the first home game of his career.

Vikings 20  Colts 23  (IND +1.5)


New Orleans Saints (0-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (0-1)  (NO -2.5)

The Saints, who went 13-3 last year, have a realistic chance of going 0-2. The Packers and Saints, who went a combined 28-4 last regular season have a realistic chance of starting 2012 at 0-4. Payton's loss was felt. That offense looked totally off. The Panthers aren't as good defensively, but I can see them draining the clock with a running game that is way better than that performance against Tampa. Overall, I do think the Panthers pull this out. That Saints loss to me was more a sign of a team in disarray than a team just playing bad in Week 1.


Saints 27  Panthers 31  (CAR +2.5)


Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)  @  Buffalo Bills (0-1)  (BUF -3)

I'm surprised the Chiefs, who were a trendy preseason pick to win the AFC West, to be underdogs by three against a team that similarly lost badly in Week 1. One of these two 'sleepers' entering 2012 is starting 0-2. I think it will be the Chiefs. Cassel is one of the worst QBs against pressure, and the Chiefs don't have the o-line that the Jets had to combat the Bills pass rush. Tamba Hali is back, but the Bills have enough on offense to get by anyway. I don't think Fitzpatrick will be that bad again, and CJ Spiller will be unleashed in full this season with Fred Jackson out. It may just be that I never bought into teh Chiefs hype, but I think the Bills send them to 0-2, again.
 
Chiefs 17  Bills 27  (BUF -3)


Baltimore Ravens (1-0)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)  (PHI -2.5)

The last time these two teams met, Donovan McNabb was benched and Ed Reed ran back a pick for 108 yards. I can envision a scenario where history repeats itself with Vick getting benched. After looking bad against Cleveland, it doesn't get any easier. The Eagles o-line needs to play better. If Vick throws even close to 50 times there is no way the Eagles win this game. They need a run game. In fact, I think that is also mostly true for the Ravens. The Eagles pass defense was phenomenal in Week 1. The Ravens can counter with running, and moving Boldin into the slot, where Nnamdi and DRC struggle. Anyway, I think the Ravens have less work to do to change up to win this battle of defense.

Ravens 24  Eagles 17  (BAL +2.5)


Oakland Raiders (0-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (0-1)  (OAK -2.5)

I'm kind of stunned the Raiders are favored here on the road in a 1 pm game on the East Coast, but it makes sense. Apart from that epic performance by Travis Goethal, the Raiders didn't play all that badly. Denarius Moore should be back, which will help Palmer, who did OK with limited weapons against a decent defense last week. The Raiders defense should do pretty well against a suspect line and a rookie QB, and it isn't like the Dolphins have much of a home-field crowd. The Raiders lost a crucial game in Miami last year big, but since then the Dolphins have become much, much worse, and that is more than enough to push it the other way.

Raiders 24  Dolphins 13  (OAK -2.5)


Cleveland Browns (0-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)  (CIN -7)

Honestly, who cares. It is bad against mediocre. The Bengals are better and at home. Brandon Weeden looked awful in Cleveland, and while the Eagles defense is better than Cincinnati's, he has to go on the road for the first time. I think the Browns defense is mostly for real, and keeps it kind of close, but turnovers by the Browns let the Bengals cover anyway.

Browns 13  Bengals 24  (CIN -7)


Houston Texans (1-0)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)  (HOU -7)

I'm riding this Houston thing. That defense was great against Miami, and should punish Blaine Gabbert and swallow up MJD. The Texans are the most complete team in the NFL, and I can't see them dropping games to inferior teams like this, even a divisional game on the road. I don't think we'll see the best from Houston's offense once again because the Jags defense is decent, but they could give a 'C' effort and still win comfortably. I was about to choose this as my lock, but that seems like a cop-out, picking one of the best teams in the league to beat one of the worst by 7 or more.

Texans 24  Jaguars 10  (HOU -7)


Dallas Cowboys (1-0)  @  Seattle Seahawks (0-1)  (DAL -3)

The last time Tony Romo went to Seattle to play a game... well... it became pretty memorable. You might have heard. He couldn't handle a snap. It was basically a whole NFL Generation ago when this happened. Bill Parcells was a coach, as was Mike Holmgren. The Seahawks were defending NFC Champs. Anyway, six years later and the Cowboys are still very much like what they were then, with Romo capable of playing great or poor, and I think we get one of the poor Romo outings. Seattle is not an easy place to play, and the Seahawks defense is good enough to hold down the Cowboys offense a bit. I don't know if they can get pressure, but they'll cover Kevin Ogletree. The Seahawks offense should do a little better at home. Overall, I don't know why, but I like this game for Seattle.

Cowboys 23  Seahawks 24  (SEA +3 = MY UPSET OF THE WEEK)


Washington Redskins (1-0)  @  St. Louis Rams (0-1)  (WAS -3)

Let's just skip the long justification. There is a big chance this is wrong, but the Rams can cover the Redskins wideouts, pressure Griffin far more effectively than teh Saints did, and I think, score on that defense at home. Rams get a close win.

Redskins 20  Rams  23  (STL +3)


New York Jets (1-0)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)  (PIT -5.5)

That line is too high. I was impressed by the Jets in Week 1 on offense. I don't think it is a total fluke. I do think the Steelers are better, but to have that much confidence in them is odd. The Steelers can't afford to lose another game to a potential Wild Card competitor like the Jets. They'll be angry after that loss, and with James Harrison and Ryan Clark back should be better, but I still don't think they are that much better than the Jets. For the Jets, the key will be to keep that pass protection excellence going another week. Mark Sanchez can be good with time against that secondary. I think the Jets keep it close, but the Steelers do pull it out. I hate to pick favorites under 7 to win and not cover, but I feel that is the smart play.

Jets 16  Steelers 20  (NYJ +5.5)


Tennessee Titans (0-1)  @  San Diego Chargers (1-0)  (SD -6)

I feel like I am stealing. What is it with the Titans being overvalued? First, they were only 5.5 underdogs against the Pats, and now just six on the road in San Diego? This seems really strange. The Titans looked awful on Sunday, and I know New England was a good opponent, but still. The Chargers are the better team, with a QB that could cut them up. The Titans are maybe starting Locker, maybe starting Hasselbeck, and both probably won't have much time. That Chargers pass rush, especially the awoken Shaun Phillips, looked great on Monday Night. Again, I'm a little too confident, if anything, about the Chargers chances here.

Titans 14  Chargers 31  (SD -6)


Detroit Lions (1-0)  @  San Francisco 49ers (1-0)  (SF -6.5)

I'm surprised this line is so low as well. The 49ers are playing a night game (historically a benefit for the home team, especially if the two teams are somewhat equal) after beating the preseason Super Bowl favorite on the road against a team that struggled at home to beat the Rams. Add that up and this line should be higher. The 49ers have to block the Lions, but if they do, the should find just as many holes in the secondary as they did against the Packers. The Lions looked sloppy on offense against the Rams, but now face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. I can't see them putting up enough points. The last time hte 49ers played a prime-time game, they destroyed Pittsburgh 23-3. I doubt the Lions score just three, but I wouldn't want to ever play the 49ers in prime-time.

Lions 17  49ers 27  (SF -6.5)


Denver Broncos (1-0)  @  Atlanta Falcons (1-0)  (ATL -3)

If Brent Grimes was still around, I might have picked the Falcons here. Mike Nolan loves to play base nickel, and without Grimes that becomes harder. I see Manning just avoiding Asante (who's always played him well - just like Ty Law), and focus on the slot receiver. I could see the TEs or Stokley having a big day. I don't think the Falcons have enough of a pass rush to really affect Manning. On the other side, the Falcons line is good, and their team is overall, but I can't pick them. Manning has been money ever since 2005 in primetime. He is 25-4 as a starting QB in primetime since then. Two of those losses were to SD (in 2007 - the 6 pick game - and in 2010) and the other two were early in 2008 when he was noticeably off after knee surgery. He's also great as an underdog (happens really rarely). Combine those two and I see another statement made by the Broncos.

Broncos 30  Falcons 24  (DEN +3)


Enjoy the Games!!

NFL 2012: Week 2 Power Rankings

Here are the first power rankings of the year. Of course, this is not only subjective in terms of my opinions of each team that won or lost in their quality over the Weekend, but also about my perceived quality of that team coming into the season.

I'm using this as kind of a week-in-review type piece unless I have enough time to write a separate one. I've added two sections at the bottom where I quickly just review how my picks went, including the lock and upset picks, and then rank the next weeks games in terms of their attractiveness.


32.) Miami Dolphins (0-1 = PF-PA: 10-30)

Thank God they got that special teams TD, because that was just a sad, sad performance. They didn't even play good enough to force the Texans to really try at all that second half. This was a tough spot for the Dolphins, to go into one of the best teams in the NFL, and Ryan Tannehill looked it. He seemed completely flustered, as did much of that team. I honestly think it is going to get worse, much worse. 


31.) Cleveland Browns (0-1 = 16-17)

Even if the Browns held off that Eagles comeback, they would be in the bottom five. The defense looked good, but they mostly capitalized on an awful day by Mike Vick. Brandon Weeden barely had more yards per attempt than Trent Richardson had yards per rush, and that is even worse since Richardson barely had 2.0 yards per rush. That offense is a mess, which is sad since their o-line is actually pretty good.


30.) Tennessee Titans (0-1 = 13-34)

There are this low for two reasons: 1.) Jake Locker is hurt again and Matt Hasselbeck is now in the building, and 2.) Chris Johnson looks like Chris Johnson from the first half of last season, which is not any good at all. Nate Washington also got hurt. That was about as bad a result as the Titans could have gotten. I feel dirty for even picking them to cover. I now this team isn't all that good, and I went against my own prediction.


29.) Indianapolis Colts (0-1 = 21-41)

It started out so well, but.. poof, it was gone. Andrew Luck looked really skittish, and I blame that mostly on an o-line that is just pathetic. Other than LT Anthony Costanzo, they can barely stop anyone. Their guards will get whipped all year long. Their defense just crashed after Freeney went out. This is a team that will get better, and had a tough assignment, but that was an absolute failure.


28.) St. Louis Rams (0-1 = 23-27)

Sam Bradford had a nice game against heavy pressure, but that was about the only good news for the Rams. They played really hard, and they always will for Fisher, but that doesn't make them a good team. Steven Jackson looked slow. Their defense looked slow against the run (I mean, Kevin Smith should not be rushing for nearly 5 yards per carry). Cortland Finnegan does seem to be a nice pickup.


27.) Minnesota Vikings (1-0 = 26-23)

That was a very good game between two teams bad enough to make each other look competent. Adrian Peterson is just a monster. It is stunning how well he has come back from that ACL injury. Christian Ponder looked nice, and that o-line looked pretty good. But at the end of the day, they were at home against the worst starting QB in the NFL and made him look pretty competent.


26.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1 = 23-26)

That was a very good game between two teams bad enough to make each other look competent. Maurice Jones-Drew is just a monster. It is stunning how well he has come back from that holdout. Blaine Gabbert looked nice, and that o-line looked pretty good. But at the end of the day, they were at home against one of the five worst starting QBs in the NFL and made him look pretty competent.



25.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-1 = 24-40)

The Chiefs are who I thought they were. Yes, they were missing Tamba Hali, and despite him being a Top-25 player, I don't think he means that much. I still think the Chiefs are the worst team in the AFC West. Matt Cassel looked positively liked Matt Cassel, and Peyton Hillis looked like Peyton Hillis. Their o-line played awfully. Their defense didn't have a chance in hell of stopping that Falcons unit. And all this happened at home. For the 2nd straight year, the Chiefs gave up 40+ in Week 1 in Arrowhead.


24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0 = 16-10)

The Buccaneers won, but mainly because of a nearly impossible-to-repeat performance by their rush defense. That will not happen again. A team doesn't go from being the worst rush defense in the NFL to the best rush defense of all time in one year. When their rush defense returns to normal, their results will return to what they really should be. Nice dink-and-dunk game by Freeman too.


23.) Carolina Panthers (0-1 = 10-16)

Yeah, I'm putting them ahead of the Bucs. First, Cam is still better than Josh Freeman. Steve Smith is still a God. DeAngela will not have -1 yards on 6 carries again. That defense also looked a lot better than they did last year. That will also regress back to their true level, but if the Panthers and Buccaneers played tomorrow, I'm still picking the Panthers.


22.) Buffalo Bills (0-1 = 28-48)
 
I'm going to wait a couple more weeks to accurately judge Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, that was a terrible game, and yes he is coming off of a terrible second half, but the Jets defense has often given Fitzpatrick a world of trouble. CJ Spiller looked really, really good on Sunday, but that defense didn't do a thing. I'm not surprised that Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus didn't do much, but that's mainly because of one Mr. Nicholas Mangold.


21.) Cincinnati Bengals (0-1 = 13-44)

The Bengals were playing really, really impressively until that successful challenge by Harbaugh to force a 4th down when the Bengals were trailing 17-13. Ever that, the game went away from them. Andy Dalton started strong, but didn't respond to well to that adversity, but it is hard to do in Baltimore in a prime-time game. BenJarvus looked really good, though.


20.) Arizona Cardinals (1-0 = 20-16)

They are ranked below the team they just beat mainly because they are back in that state of flux with their QBs, with Skelton leaving and Kolb replacing him and playing pretty well. The Cardinals defense was as advertised, but their offense really struggled. Admittedly, the Seahawks do have a good defense, but their run game was just pitiful. Beanie Wells looked lost.


19.) Oakland Raiders (0-1 = 14-22)

I'm to angry about this game to say much. Fuck Travis Goethal, and can Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford ever be healthy?


18.) Seattle Seahawks (0-1 = 16-20)

I still like them over the course of the season more than the Cardinals mainly because I think Russell Wilson and potentially Matt Flynn would do a better job than Kolb/Skelton. What was surprising was how flaccid the Seahawks pass rush seemed. They couldn't establish much pressure for any length of time in that game against one of the worst o-lines in the NFL.


17.) Philadelphia Eagles (0-1 = 17-16)
 
 The Eagles were a complete mess, but at least they pulled out the game in the end. Michael Vick looked bad, but he probably won't have another four-pick game again. They also have to try more to get a run game going. The good sign was that the Eagles defense looked awesome. Nnamdi was doing his thing (blanketing), while DRC his (picking). Their d-line wasn't great, but man those linebackers were an improvement over last year.


16.) New Orleans Saints (0-1 = 32-40)

Bill Simmons made a good point in his NFL preview column. Considering he was writing about the NFL, that is quite rare, but a good point it was. He said that it is ridiculous to think the loss of Sean Payton will have little effect on the Saints chances after the media has spent the last five years saying just how good a coach Payton is. All I know is Drew Brees completed less than half of his passes, the run game sucked, and the defense looked as bad as ever.


15.) Detroit Lions (1-0 = 27-23)

That was a messy win, but a win nonetheless. Calvin Johnson looked good, but that TD record is probably safe. The Lions pass rush looked like they were playing in midseason form, as Ndamukong Suh had a monster game. Their running game also seemed alive. The only problem the Lions really had was Stafford's three interceptions, but they showed resolve getting past that.


14.) San Diego Chargers (0-1 = 22-14)

I don't know if they win that game even if Travis Goetheld didn't reinvent the position of long-snapper, but Rivers looked good, never really putting the ball in harms way like he did so often last season. The run game was awful, but their defense was really good for much of the night. That was a big win for the Chargers after the complete mess to end 2011.


13.) Washington Redskins (1-0 = 40-32)

I don't want to overreact to one single win, but man was that impressive. The only thing better than RGIII's play was Shanahan's game plan and play-calling. They made him feel totally comfortable in that offense, running easy screens and zone reads. Just great stuff from a Head Coach who looks like he's enjoying himself for the first time in Washington.


12.) Dallas Cowboys (1-0 = 24-17)

As long as Murray, Bryant and Austin stay healthy, the Cowboys will be a good team, but they did something again that I've harped on since 2009 (my first year blogging). They put up over 400 yards but only 24 points. That season, they averaged 400 yards a game (2nd in the NFL) but scored just 24 points a game (11th). It was kind of similar this weekend. Still, one year after they melted down and lost a 24-10 lead to the Jets, they closed the deal. Now they just have to figure out how to beat the Giants in Jerry World.


11.) New York Jets (1-0 = 48-28)

That was probably the zenith of offense in the Rex Ryan era. Mark Sanchez looked terrific other than that bonehead pick. Their o-line dominated their individual matchups against the Bills. Darrelle Revis was in fine form, as was the rest of the pass defense. That said, what was up with the run D? That has to get better if they want to challenge New England.


10.) New York Giants (0-1 = 17-24)

The Giants have a propensity to lay eggs at home, and many times to the Cowboys (who've won four of the last five meetings in New York when Romo's played) or Redskins. This isn't unusual, but they better turn it around soon, as after the Bucs they go to Carolina on Thursday, then travel to Philly for a SNF game. Big games are ahead.


9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1 = 19-31)

That was a tough position to be in, playing without Ryan Clark and James Harrison. They get those two back this weekend, and that will come in handy against the Jets this weekend. The offense looked fine except for the running game which was understandably awful without their top two runners. I'll say it now, after he retires, I will miss Ben Roethlisberger. Never have I seen a player quite like him.


8.) Atlanta Falcons (1-0 = 40-24)

That was a great win for them. Each of the past two seasons they opened up on the road against a good but not great opponent (Chicago last year, Steelers without suspended Ben in 2010) and lost. Here they laid the smack down in the 2nd half. Matt Ryan looked great. It is hard to believe that he is still just in his 5th year in the league, but he looks comfortable. Now, though, he'll have to face a pass rush again.


7.) Green Bay Packers (0-1 = 22-30)

We'll there goes that dilemma of having to always place the Defending Champ #1 until they lose. They made it easy for me. For the second straight game, the Packers just couldn't get anything deep on offense, and Rodgers was severely limited. Just short throw after short throw, and when the defense is bad enough, that just won't do it. Their pass rush seems better, but their coverage is just as bad as it was in 2011 if not worse.


6.) Denver Broncos (1-0 = 31-19)

I'm not going to overrate them (Surprised, but they came out as the #1 team in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings after Week 1), but I think they'll get better. That no-huddle can be lethal in Denver. The Steelers just looked gassed. I really want to know, though, is if the pass rush that dominated late can show itself more in the games. Ben is probably better at converting 3rd-and-longs like that than any other QB, but that can't keep happening.


5.) Chicago Bears (1-0 = 41-21)

What the hell happened in the beginning? Jay Cutler starts 1-10 with a pick. Ends 20-25 with two TDs. Overall, the game was about as good as it could be for the Bears. Their pass rush was great (against an admittedly awful line). They flustered Andrew Luck. Their secondary played great. Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler seem to have not missed a beat since 2009. Everything is working. Now comes the real test. Can they beat the Packers when they are down.


4.) San Francisco 49ers (1-0 = 30-22)

I don't know why I fell for the Seahawks. I love watching the 49ers play. I love defense, and other than Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the 49ers are the most dynamic, dominant defense I have seen in some time (maybe since Tennessee in 2008, or Chicago 2005-2006). They are just so loaded. Their offense looks to be improved from last year. Undoubtedly they will turn the ball over more, but still, the acquisitions of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss have seemed to work so far. Scary Thought: Peyton Manning almost went here, rememeber.


3.) New England Patriots (1-0 = 34-13)

That was a classic 2004 Patriots win. Brady didn't go deep a lot and hit a lot underneath. He was cool and efficient. Their running game took advantage of a bad run defense. Their defense made big plays. I would like to see them do it against a better team, but that was a good start from a Patriots team that looks like it is at least trying to be more of what it was when they won Super Bowls.


2.) Houston Texans (1-0 = 30-10)

Scary part about the Texans is they didn't even play all that well in Week 1, at least on offense. JJ Watt looks like a future Hall-of-Famer so far in his one year and one game career, and the rest of that pass rush is still fearsome. Their defense just flew around that field against a bad offense. The offense needs to get better, but I trust them. Foster still had two TDs. Andre Johnson still had a TD catch and over 100 yards. Matt Schaub didn't throw a pick. they noticeably shut it down in the 2nd half. We'll see more in two weeks when they go to Denver.


1.) Baltimore Ravens (1-0 = 44-13)

I think I picked the wrong AFC North team this year to fall back. The Bengals did play with them for a half, but they had to work for each yard (and twice converted 4th downs - where did those balls come from, Marvin?). After that overturned tackle by Lewis, it was a wrap. Pick-Six by Ed (cherish him now). Sacks abound. Haloti still unblockable. I think they miss Suggs, but with that improved offense, it might not matter too much.


Postseason Projections will start after Week 3.


*New Section*

Look Back at the Previous Weeks' Picks 

Giants -4 (WRONG = 0-1)
Bears -10 (CORRECT = 1-1)
Eagles -9 (WRONG = 1-2)
Jets -3 (CORRECT = 2-2)
Saints -7.5 (WRONG = 2-3)
Titans +5 (WRONG = 2-4)
Jaguars +3.5 (CORRECT = 3-4)
Texans -12 (CORRECT = 4-4)  (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Lions -7.5 (WRONG = 4-5)
Falcons -3 (CORRECT = 5-5)
49ers +4.5 (CORRECT = 6-5)  (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Panthers -2.5 (WRONG = 6-6)
Cardinals +2.5 (CORRECT = 7-6)
Broncos -1.5 (CORRECT = 8-6)
Ravens -6.5 (CORRECT = 9-6)
Raiders -1 (WRONG = 9-7)

Week 1: 9-7 (Lock 1-0;  Upset 1-0)

Year-to-Date: 9-7 (1-0; 1-0)


Best Picks: I correctly predicted the Cardinals to beat the Seahawks 20-16. I also picked the Texans to beat the Dolphins 31-10 and the real score was 30-10.



*Other New Section*

Ranking the Week 2 Games

The first games are three games featuring two average to bad teams.

16.) Browns @ Bengals (1:00)
15.) Chiefs @ Bills (1:00)
14.) Vikings @ Colts (1:00)


The next group has one good team and one bad/middling team, making for what could be extremely boring football.

13.) Cardinals @ Patriots (1:00)
12.) Raiders @ Dolphins (1:00)
11.) Texans @ Jaguars (1:00)
10.) Buccaneers @ Giants (1:00)
9.) Titans @ Chargers (4:25)


These next three are in here for really entertainment purposes, with RGIII continuing against what should be a better defense (sad that playing the Rams is a tougher defensive challenge than the Saints). Also, I didn't know this until I read it, but this is the first time Tony Romo has started a game in Seattle since his infamous bobbled hold. Finally, the Saints and Panthers both look to avoid 0-2 starts, but the Saints have to do it on the road against a good offense with their putrid defense.


8.) Redskins @ Rams (4:05)
7.) Cowboys @ Seahawks (4:05)
6.) Saints @ Panthers (1:00)


These next two are good games featuring two good to great teams. The Eagles luckily got their win in Week 1, because now they aren't fighting to avoid 0-2. The last time those two teams met was in Baltimore in 2008, in a game that had two memorable moments: first with Ed Reed breaking his own NFL record with a 108-yard pick return, and the other was the benching of Donovan McNabb. Of course, the next game has another memorable moment from the last meeting. The postgame handshake here will be the most played-up since Mangini-Belichick in their 2006 playoff game. 

5.) Ravens @ Eagles (1:00)
4.) Lions @ 49ers (SNF)






 
The Great Games of the Week

3.) Jets @ Steelers (4:25)
 
The Steelers look to avoid 0-2 against, shockingly, the league's highest scoring team. This is an interesting game because it will be a real test of how far the Jets offense has really come. Mark Sanchez will get a lot tougher test this week, especially with Ryan Clark and most likely James Harrison coming back. The Steelers also get a tough test again for their offense. It should be a fun crowd in Heinz Field as well for their home opener.


2.) Broncos @ Falcons (MNF)

I came close to putting this at #1, but the real #1 had more on the line. Here, the Broncos get another chance to show that they are most certainly for real and that Peyton Manning is most certainly back. The Falcons were really impressive against the Chiefs on offense, but that was without Brandon Carr and Tamba Hali. The Broncos are fully ready. Expect a fast game with both teams playing a lot of no-huddle. Another note is that ESPN for once got close to their money's worth with this years slate of MNF games. 

1.) Bears @ Packers (TNF)

And a large reason why the MNF slate is better? Because there are 14 TNF games on the NFL network. I fully expect this package to be sold to TNT or someone in the next 5 years, but for now the NFL decided to stash the awful prime-time games (Cardinals @ Rams and Buccaneers @ Vikings will be happening soon). But that said, they gave themselves one marquee game here. There is so much on the line for the Packers. With another loss, they would not only start 0-2, but 0-2 at home with a division and conference loss against two of the teams that many think will be competing for playoff position come December. The Bears have so much to gain by inflicting all of that against the Packers and beating them in Lambeau for the first time since 2007's meaningless Week 17 win. Jay Cutler and that offense can have a real coming out party here, and go a long way to fullfilling my prediction of them winning that division. The Packers have a lot more to lose, but even when one team has little to gain, these games are usually good. Plus, it is the NFL's best rivalry getting centerstage. I wish this happened a little later in the year with a higher chance of a frozen tundra, but this looks to be a fun game.

Out of the Wilderness

I was stranded at a post-wedding bar when the report came that Peyton Manning was set to undergo a (what was thought to be) third neck surgery before Week 1 of the 2011 season. At that moment, all I knew was that his 208 game start streak was all but done. Little did I know that his Colts career was over. Little did I know how close it came to his overall career being over.

I was stranded with a broken-down van in the middle of nowhere, New Jersey, when Peyton Manning took the field again in a ugly orange uniform. Not knowing the score, or the events that were taking place 2,000 miles away, little did I know that Manning was doing what I had see him do for 208 straight games. One year and four days later I was again stranded, but instead of my sports world falling off a cliff the last time into a jungle of neck fusions and noodle arms, my sports world, my life as a Manning fan, would come back from the wilderness, much like my position with the van.

For one night at least, Peyton Manning, the sports legend, was alive again. He could go out next Monday Night and hurt his back again (although chances of this are far, far less than most would think; it is more likely his arm gets tired, but even that is a low percentage), but that doesn't matter. For one night, he came back from the wilderness and delivered against the NFL's best defense from 2011.

Sure, the Steelers were missing Ryan Clark and James Harrison, but that is still a defense that presents about as tough a challenge as any for Manning's first game back, but other than some early jitters, he passed every test. When Manning started that no-huddle, it was like he was a Colt again. He directed that offense. He called out each Steelers blitz. He was barely touched (some of that is credit to that o-line, which again to repeat, is better than any line he's had since 2007). He came to the line with 20 seconds left, and not once but twice was able to cheat out the blitz for the Steelers. His cat-and-mouse with Polamalu was a fun reminder of the mental ability of Peyton Manning. The game itself was a fun reminder of the true ability of Peyton Manning.

What actually connected with me about that game was the similarities between it and so many Colts games that I watched with nervous eyes from 2004-2010. The Steelers dominated time of possession, holding the ball for all but two plays of the 3rd quarter, pinning the Colts to 14 minutes possession in the first three quarters. Roethslisberger completed umpteen third-and-longs, which is a credit to Ben. It was like watching some QB go off against the Tampa-2 Colts. The game was decided by one crucial interception, a pass rush that became dominant late in the game (three sacks in four plays to ice it) and Manning being Manning. That recipe cemented Bill Polian and Tony Dungy's HOF case.

I have never cried during a sporting event (don't worry, I will the next time the Astros finish over .500). But I've felt something inside me while watching sports numerous times. I had about four or five of them last night. As someone who will be an unabashed Peyton Manning fan until he retires (if Irsay is right and Luck will have a 16 year career, that gives me 10-11 years of pure Luck love), that night made everything that happened over the past year worth it. Seeing Manning morose on the sideline last year. Seeing him breakdown in a way we have never seen in March when he was cut. Seeing that jarring image of him holding up that Orange #18 uniform. Seeing him wobble passes early in the preseason. All of that mess made last night more special. I earned it. All of us Manning and Colts fans earned it. Most importantly, Peyton Manning earned it.

There is a great story in the New York Times last week about Manning's road to recovery. Before he had that surgery that essentially ended his career as a Colt, he was throwing absolute ducks to friend-and-former-Tennessee-QB Todd Helton last summer. He was absolutely unsure if his career will continue. The Colts certainly were as well. Manning works harder than any player in the NFL, and no moreso than his two recoveries from injury. The first time, 2008 when he had a burst bursa sac, he started slow and won the MVP. This year? Who knows.

Peyton Manning nearly choked up last night after the game during his interview with Michelle Tafoya when talking about all the people that helped him during the past 18 months. Manning, sometime around the point where he became the NFL's most marketable star, became a guarded figure. He was still cordial and humorous in his interviews, but rarely showed emotions off the field. That seems to have changed through this whole ordeal, from his teary performance in his Colts send-off press conference to that interview last night. Manning is back, in more ways than one.

I'm probably a little too optimistic on the Broncos chances this year, but even if they go 10-6 and lose in the Divisional Round, I still have the memory of this game. Just remember, the only time I truly cared about the outcome of a game last year, outside of the Make-Sure-New-England-Loses machinations I go through each year, was Dan Orlovsky's gritty two-minute drill to beat a TJ Yates-led Texans team in Week 16. I enjoyed it at the time. I finally understood what it was like to win a game that mattered nothing in my time rooting for the Colts. But looking back, that was just sad. I've been pulled out of that wilderness as well. Manning rescued himself, but he rescued me, and rescued the career of the Greatest QB of All Time.


Coming Up: Power Rankings Tomorrow

NFL 2012: Week 1 Picks

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-4)

This will be short. The NFL started this routine of giving the defending champ the home opener to kick-off the season in 2004. Since then, eight defending champs have won eight games. Only two (the 2008 Giants and 2009 Steelers) didn't cover. I've already gone on record saying the Giants will be really good this season, and I am less high on Dallas. I could be wrong, but even then, that is a trend I will go by until a road team wins this game.

Cowboys 16  Giants 24 (NYG)


Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears (-10)

The Andrew Luck era begins in earnest against my NFC Super Bowl pick, which doesn't bode well for Andrew Luck. Luck looked good in the preseason, but this isn't the preseason and the Bears defense is good. They won't outfox him, but they will play Cover-2 better than anything Luck has ever seen. Peppers against Costanzo should be an interesting test for the young guy, but the Bears should kill the rest of the line. The real issue is can the Colts defense hold the Bears down enough, and I don't think they can. The Colts have not shown their ability to rush the passer, which is critical against the Bears, or stop the run. They haven't defended RBs well all preseason. They have no one to cover Marshall. I like the Bears. This is a high line, but the Bears are a good, good team.

Colts 13  Bears 27 (CHI)


Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cleveland Browns

This is a high line for a road team, especially for one coming off of an 8-8 season, but I do expect big things from the Eagles this season. The question is are they this much better than the Browns in Cleveland. What the Eagles have going for them is that Weeden is making his first career start against a really great d-line. The Browns do have some nice pieces on their o-line, but I doubt they can contain the full rush. With Trent Richardson gimpy, I like the Browns chances even less. The Browns do have a good defense and should be able to contain the Eagles from dropping 35+, but I don't think they can score enough points for the Eagles not to cover.

Eagles 27  Browns 14 (PHI)


Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-3)

Odd line, as the -3 essentially means that these teams are even, which I think is about right, but the Jets have been able to confound the Bills offense during the Gailey era. Last year, Fitzpatrick had no idea what to do against the Jets in the 1st half. The Jets are still about as good as the Bills, and being at home, I like their chances. The Bills defensive line can give the Jets problems, but other than maybe switching Mario Williams over the RT, the Jets have the horses up front. The game is probably around this 3-4 points margin either way, but I'm not ready to trust the Bills to win a game in New York on opening day.

Bills 20  Jets 24 (NYJ)


Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

The Saints are lucky they get their first post-Bounty game at home against a rookie QB. Luckily for Griffin, the Saints aren't a great defense, so I don't think they can confound RGIII that much. The Redskins should have success running the ball no matter who the back is (Evan Royster, I believe), and Griffin should have some time against a pass rush that isn't all that great unless they blitz. The other side of the ball is the bigger issue. The Saints scored 40+ in their last five home games they have played. I think that streak ends, but the Saints still have advantageous matchups all over. The Redskins should be able to get decent pressure against Brees, but decent is not enough really.

Redskins 20  Saints 31 (NO)


New England Patriots (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans

The Patriots are the better team. They are probably the much better team. But there is a reason that this line is only 5.5, especially considering the Patriots are a huge public team. Vegas seems to know something. The Patriots are good, but I don't love this matchup for them. Their o-line is replacing three players (Light, Waters, Kaczur) and their line looked mediocre in the preseason, and Brady isn't all that good with a mediocre line. The tackles looked young and overmatched, and Vollmer's balky back is a little scary. The Titans offense is not great, but I like their matchup with a defense that I still feel is bad. I think the Patriots win. I mean, I'm not that stupid. But I like the Titans to make this a game and make it close.

Patriots 24  Titans 20 (TEN)


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Perfect matchup here. Two teams that I think are 5 win teams at best, but one of them will start 1-0. Here we have the two QBs that looked the worst out of the 1st round picks last season in Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. I think the Jags are better, but Gabbert can be abused by Jared Allen and the Vikings d-line. With Mo-Jo Drew limited, the Jags don't have the passing offense to test the Vikings awful secondary. The other side of the ball places a good Jags defense against an average offense. I really hope Ponder struggles so we can all at least see what the Vikings are with Joe Webb as the full-time starter. I really have no idea what will happen in this game other than the fact that it will be most likely low scoring. I think the Jaguars win. I have no idea why other than their defense is better than the Vikings matchup-adjusted defense.

Jaguars 17  Vikings 13 (JAX)


Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-12)

If there is going to be a blowout this week it is this game. The Dolphins are breaking in a rookie QB with an o-line that is not all that good with no true receivers against the one of the best defenses in the NFL. I can see Tannehill just getting rocked by the Texans multi-faceted pass rush (Barwin, Reed, Watt, Smith, Cushing, Mercilus). Wade Phillips must thank the lord every day that he left that zoo in Dallas and got to coordinate this group of banshees. On the other end, the Dolphins have no one to stop  a healthy Andre Johnson or Arian Foster. Their pass rush, apart from Cameron Wake who should be mostly neutralized against Duane Brown, isn't good enough to get to Schaub consistently. I just don't see any way the Dolphins really make this competitive.

Dolphins 10  Texans 31 (HOU - MY LOCK OF THE WEEK)


St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)

I'm surprised this line is not higher. The Rams would probably fare better against a pass-first team like Detroit than a run-first team, but even then, I'm stunned this line is not higher. The Rams pass rush might actually stop the Lions from scoring a ridiculous amount of points, and Cortland Finnegan is good enough that Calvin might not have a great day, but the Lions defense is built to beat the Rams. The Rams o-line is garbage. Especially the interior. Ndamukong Suh should abuse the Rams interior line. The Lions have great matchups on that side of the ball, and even if it isn't as explosive as many of their wins in 2011, it probably will be a comfortable win nonetheless.

Rams 13  Lions 27 (DET)


Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs

I feel like a broken record, but I'm leaning towards the favorite again. So far I've only picked two underdogs, and only one to win outright (the Jaguars), and that trend continues here. I just don't think the Chiefs are nearly as good as the rest of society, apparently. Mainly because Matt Cassel just is not that good, and neither is his o-line. The Falcons front should be able to get to Cassel, who struggles badly when pressured. The Falcons o-line doesn't even have to face Tamba Hali. Their offense should be fine, as the Chiefs don't have enough corners to cover everybody the Falcons can throw at them. I doubt Michael Turner goes off, but I doubt he needs to.

Falcons 30  Chiefs 13 (ATL)


San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Man, this is a great, great game for Week 1. It is really wasted this early in the season not in primetime. I would love to watch this in Week 15 in 20 degree weather under the lights. But alas, we get it in Week 1. I can see so many things happening in this game, but the one thing I can't see is a blowout either way. The Packers are the better team, but I don't like their matchup against that 49ers defense. The Packers o-line has looked a little shaky, and the 49ers have the best front-7 in the NFL rght now. I can Justin Smith just abuse the Pack, as well as Ray McDonald against an aged Jeff Saturday. Forget about Aldon Smith against Marshall Newhouse. On the other side, the Packers need their 2010 pass rush to return, because the 2011 vintage shouldn't trouble Smith. I actually really like the 49ers in this game, but I can't pick against Rodgers at Lambeau. I can't see him having another off day. This is one of the hardest picks to make this week. I'm going to start going with my head more this season, so I'll do that and take the team with the matchup advantages.

49ers 24  Packers 23 (SF - MY UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK)*

* - I was about to go with the Jaguars over the Vikings as my upset. I am picking very few upsets this week. Hopefully this changes as we go forward.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

Another bizarre line here, as Vegas is essentially saying the teams are equal on a neutral field, as the 2.5 is mainly from Carolina being at home. I don't get that at all. The offseason champion is rarely able to carry that forward into the regular season (see: Eagles, Philadelphia v. 2011, Redskins, Washington v. Snyder era). Freeman and that flaccid offense should be able to move the ball against the Panthers defense, but the reverse is just as true. This is far from a tough test of Cam Newton and that Panthers offense either. The Buccaneers defense is just full of holes all over. I can see DeAngelo having a massive game. Same with Steve Smith. This seems to be a case where a narrative (Bucs hated Raheem Morris and love Greg Schiano) is painting over the fact that the Buccaneers just aren't that talented, even with Jackson and Nicks.

Buccaneers 17  Panthers 31 (CAR)


Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Hey, I get to pick another underdog. The Cardinals, at home where they are notoriously tough, are about as good as the Seahawks in Russell Wilson's first start. This might be different come December, but for now, the Cardinals are a good team that can win this game. Both defenses are better than perceived (Seattle's is actually close to a top-5 unit, Arizona's is about in that 15-10 range), and Arizona's pass rush should be able to rattle Russell Wilson. The Cardinals main weapon is Larry Fitzgerald, and while Richard Sherman is a good corner, I don't think his size and physicality will bother Fitz. The Cardinals in Week 1 are the better team at home. When they meet again, that probably won't be true anymore.

Seahawks 16  Cardinals 20 (ARZ)


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)

Oh how I will sit back and sip a nice, crisp scotch watching Peyton Manning play actual meaningful football again. It is ironic that his first game back is against the Steelers because had Blair White just caught that 3rd and 5 back in 2010, the Colts would have wen to Pittsburgh. Anyway, this is a great test for Manning early. Sure, he could've started with the Chiefs or Buccaneers, some shoddy team, but he gets the league's best defense. That said, I think he can neutralize that pass rush by doing what Manning always does: get the ball out quickly. I don't think he has a great game, but a good enough one. On the other side, with a healthy Von Miller, the Broncos pass rush should give Ben more problems than it did in the playoff game, and apparently Mike Wallace is on a play count after just recently ending his holdout. All that adds up to what should be a nice beginning to the Manning era.

Steelers 17  Broncos 23 (DEN)


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Interesting game. Andy Dalton could have a nice game because his personal terror, Terrell Suggs, is out. AJ Green against Lardarius Webb is a close matchup, but one that Green could easily win. BenJarvus is the perfect type of back to do well against the Ravens defense (like Ced Benson in 2009). The other side of the ball is more precarious. The Bengals need good play from their secondary, but they should be fine against the Ravens running game. I think this line is a little high. The Ravens without Suggs are not that much better than the Bengals. I can see the Ravens winning, but to win by seven points against a good team is not all that easy. Then again, they are playing for the memory of ex-owner Art Modell. I remember what the Ravens did to the Pats after Sean Taylor died.

Bengals 16  Ravens 27 (BAL)


San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (-1)

I just realized that I only picked four road teams to win outright (PHI, NE, JAX, ATL), which is almost certainly too few, but I'm not going back and changing picks just because of that. Anyway, chances are there are 1-2 weekends each season where the home teams go 11-5 or 12-4. It just seems odd when it is Week 1, especially if I am right and we all get some "is the old NFL back with home-field dominance" columns. Anyway, this is an interesting game. The teams are pretty even overall, and I can see Philip Rivers doing what he did in Week 17 last year and shred the Raiders, but he doesn't have his whole stable of weapons with Ryan Mathews and Vincent Brown out. On the other side, the only guy possibly missing for the Raiders is Jacoby Ford, and the Raiders can move the ball just as easily against a mediocre Chargers secondary. This could be the weeks big shootout, and hopefully the game is entertaining enough to make me forget that Chris Berman is calling it. Anyway, why change directions now. Let's continue the home-team trend (I will say, I picked two home teams to win but not cover), and take the Raiders to start out 1-0 again.

Chargers 27  Raiders 31 (OAK)


Enjoy the Games!!

NFL 2012: Previewing the AFC

AFC East

1.) New England Patriots 12-4 (4)  (UNDER 12.5)

The case for the Patriots being better than this is easy, but being a Patriots hater, I'll make the opposite case. The Patriots weren't really that great in 2011. They capitalized on a really easy schedule, but they'll have an easy schedule again. That said, some of their "easier" games in 2012 will be harder just because they won't get a ridiculous run of easy QBs like they did last year. Their skill position guys stayed remarkably healthy in 2011 which is not totally likely. Their o-line has to replace Matt Light with Nate Solder, who looked awful in the preseason, and Brian Waters is still possibly retired. As for the defense, they lost their two best pass rushers. They'll still to Patriots things like play good red zone defense, but overall, to me, this is a slightly worse version of the 2011 AFC Champions, despite adding Brandon Lloyd.


2.) Buffalo Bills 8-8  (OVER 7.5)

The Bills made the moves necessary to compete for the playoffs, but getting there will be tough. They are lucky that the schedule isn't too tough, but the Bills are in a tough division with a QB who we last saw play decidedly average for a majority of the 2011 season. I like Chan Gailey's offense, and I love the move of signing Mario Williams to add to what was already a good d-line, but I just don't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick, nor the injury-prone and untested pieces around him on that offense. If Fitzpatrick is for real, then the Bills are the most likely immediate threat to the Pats to steal the division come 2013, but I'm still skeptical.


3.) New York Jets 7-9  (UNDER 8.5)

I hate going by what I see in the preseason, but the Jets offense just looks terrible. They replaced Braylon Edwards, who was a steady contributor from 2009-2010, with Plaxico Burress, and now have replaced Burress with, who exactly? Their o-line is still very, very good with D'Brick and the beast that is Nick Mangold, but that right side isn't settled. Their offense is just a mess. The defense has a chance to approach the brilliance of the 2009 Jets defense, but that really isn't enough in a tough division. I don't trust Mark Sanchez. He's improved in terms of his decision making, but he really doesn't have NFL quality decision making. I don't think the pickup of Tebow will do anything. If this team is forced to start Tim, they are far too gone anyway, but I doubt Tebow's Wild-Cat package will really be all that effective. Rex Ryan had to answer a lot of questions after 2011, and I think that will seem like a breeze compared to the Jets offseason after 2012.


4.) Miami Dolphins 3-13  (AFC LOCK UNDER 7)

I'm not sure what I think of Ryan Tannehill other than the fact that his wife is incredibly attractive, but I do know what I think of the Dolphins offense in general. Their only above average skill position player seems to be Reggie Bush. They traded away Brandon Marshall for two third-round picks, and now cut two of their receiving hopefuls. Their o-line is average outside of Jake Long, who is nursing an injury. Their defense is still talented, but aging and injury prone. Guys like Karlos Dansby don't stay healthy forever. Also, trading away a viable talent like Vontae Davis is a good pick-up long term, but not a good move at all for the 2012 Dolphins. I think they'll bottom out this year. I like the fact that they have a guy who could be a franchise QB and a coach who I trust, but they have to look past the mess that the 2012 Dolphins will be. The Dolphins, with the hilariously optimistic over/under of 7 is my AFC Lock to go UNDER that total.



AFC North

1.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (3)  (OVER 10)

I alluded to this in the predictions post, but I really like the Steelers to not take any sort of step back. In fact, only a tough schedule (with the AFC West and NFC East) is keeping me from giving them more wins. The Steelers were the AFC's best defense in 2011 with Woodley and Harrison each missing seven games. They'll almost assuredly play more. Their secondary is still very good in Steelers terms, as is their depth of front. There is much talk of David DeCastro being placed on IR, but even without the highly touted rookie, Ben should have the best o-line he's had since 2005. Antonio Brown is still growing, and that offense is as well. The Steelers will be what the Steelers are, one of the toughest teams in the NFL.


2.) Baltimore Ravens 9-7  (UNDER 10)

I really don't like doing this, but I had to give some teams more losses than I would like. I don't really think it will be loss of Suggs, but the tough schedule that the Steelers have, with out-of-division games against the Broncos (Manning's owned Baltimore) and Patriots. I don't know how much the loss of Suggs will be felt because they have some young players like Danelle Ellerbe and Paul Kruger there to pick up some of the slack, but their pass rush was already tailing off late last season. I like Torrey Smith as a developmental player, but Anquan Boldin really seemed to lose something at times last season. I just think some team has to lose some games from last year, and sadly, I think the Ravens are a somewhat logical choice.


3.) Cincinnati Bengals 7-9  (UNDER 8)

Just like those plucky Lions, the other Large Cat will fall back a bit before what could be some good success later in the decade. Andy Dalton had a good season, but not a great one. That team has good pieces, but that tough schedule gets tougher the further down this division we go (as we replace the Bengals with the Ravens for who this team has to play). I don't really think replacing Cedric Benson with the Law Firm is a good move in any way. Overall, the Bengals are a team in the right direction, but it is tough to really improve on what was a maxed out 9-7 record as the current Bengals stand.

 
4.) Cleveland Browns 5-11 (PUSH 5)

With the sale of the team, I think Holmgren is probably out the door come next January, and his lasting image will be a 28-year old QB that could be the next Kurt Warner (first real season at 27) or Chris Weinke (first real season at 29). Chances are somewhere in between, and that isn't all too bad. Holmgren at least realized that Colt McCoy was not working. I like Trent Richardson, and I like the pick of Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft, but I doubt it all comes together in any substantial form in Year 1. Long term, though, I like quite a few of the Browns players, but my God, is this division tough for them.



AFC South

1.) Houston Texans 13-3 (1)  (OVER 9.5)

I've already explained a lot of why I love the Texans, but here is a quick recap. The Texans, despite losing Mario Williams and Eric Winston, still have some of the best collection of pass rushers in Connor Barwin, Brooks Reed, JJ Watt and Antonio Smith with first round pick Whitney Mercilus, and still have one of best o-lines. Andre Johnson will most likely play more than 7 games this season, and Matt Schaub will probably not get hurt again (although considering it is Matt Schaub, is not a definite bet). The only thing the Texans are really lacking is secondary depth (with their pass rush, this is not that big of a concern) and a proven #2 receiver behind Kevin Walter, but with their strength at nearly every other position and their soft division, the Texans are the most talented team in the AFC, and probably will be healthy enough to make it all work.


2.) Indianapolis Colts 6-10  (OVER 5.5)

The Colts get the distinction of being the worst 2nd place team in the NFL, which should be fun. Andrew Luck has looked really good in the preseason, but it is still just preseason. That said, any real sense of optimism Andrew Luck has given Colts fans, their offensive line and defense have quickly taken away. It will definitely take time to turn into a true 3-4 team under Chuck Pagano, but the worst part of what the Colts have shown is that they are really having a tough time rushing the passer. Their gap control has been awful, but not getting much pressure is really disconcerting. The saddest part is Dwight Freeney doesn't seem to be adjusting well to the 3-4, but on the opposite end of the ledger is that Jerry Hughes seems to be doing something other than, you know, sucking. Thankfully, Andrew Luck has shown enough pocket presence to do something with a piss-awful o-line and turn that schedule into a 2nd place finish.


3.) Tennessee Titans 5-11  (UNDER 7.5)

If Matt Hasselbeck was starting again for the team I would probably pick them closer to 8-8, but I don't trust Jake Locker to turn this team into something better. Their defense might continue to decline with another year away from Fisher/Washburn, and other than Karl Klug, their pass rush isn't close to what it once was. Their offense is more pass-oriented now, but I don't see how that perfectly fits with an inaccurate Jake Locker. The Titans should have capitalized on last year's surprise 9-7 season, because until Locker radically improves, that might be a high point in the Munchak era.


4.) Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11  (OVER 5)

You can basically copy/paste that last paragraph and replace 'Locker' with 'Gabbert' and devalue even Locker's ability about 20 percent. Blaine Gabbert looked lost last season. Sure, he was a rookie and there is room for improvement, but with their o-line problems not fixed, and being dependent on a over-priced Laurent Robinson for support, is probably not the best way to go about business. The Jaguars still have a good talented, defense, but with Mo-Jo Drew just ending his holdout, their only true above average offensive part will probably start out a little rusty. I still like the selection of Mike Mularkey as a head coach, but it will take time to rebuild that offense.


AFC West

1.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (2)  (OVER 8.5)

Once again, I am in on the Broncos this year, and mainly because of the o-line. This offensive line is substantially better than anything Manning's had protecting him since at least 2007, and this is the best running game Manning should have since then as well. The defense is an issue, but at times they were very good last year. The defense has two premier, young pass rushers (Manning and two pass rushers, sounds familiar?) and a deep secondary that is quite good at ball skills (Bailey, Tracy Porter, Mike Adams). The team overall is not deep, but it would be a sad form of irony if Manning leaves Indy for another team that has issues staying healthy. The Broncos have a tough schedule, but it isn't like Manning's never faced it before. I could be really wrong here, but I know one thing, if Manning stays healthy, there is almost no chance they don't kill that OVER.


2.) Oakland Raiders 10-6 (5)  (OVER 7.5)

The biggest thing for the Raiders entering 2012 is health. Their starters are definitely talented enough to make the playoffs, but the backups are not. The thing is, I have a hard time thinking the Raiders will be more injured than what they were in 2011. The Raiders could have made the playoffs despite losing three of their four best weapons for much of the 2nd half of the season (McFadden, Moore and Ford out, with only Heyward-Bey staying healthy). Carson Palmer also had a pretty good season outside of his disastrous first two games where he clearly wasn't ready to really play. I like him after a whole season with the team with a talented group of weapons. Their defense needs to be more consistent, but I feel like Dennis Allen will be a lot more demanding in that way than Hue Jackson was. They have the talent to win 10 games, but do they have the health?


3.) San Diego Chargers 9-7 (6)  (PUSH 9)

The Chargers had a lot of things go wrong for them in both 2010 and 2011 but still nearly made the playoff each year. This time, a lot is going wrong for them before the season with Ryan Mathews mysterious quick-healing injury and Malcolm Floyd's injury concerns, but the team still has Phillip Rivers, who is bound to rebound from his 20 pick semi-disaster of a season. Drew Brees threw 22 picks in 2010, and then had one of the most productive seasons by a QB ever. I don't think Rivers throws for 5,400 yards and 46 TDs, obviously, but he can have the type of year he had in 2009-2010, where he was arguably the best QB in the NFL over those two years. The defense is a little more problematic, as they have hemorrhaged talent from their heyday and replaced it with high draft picks that haven't worked out, but a team doesn't need a great defense to win 9 games. 


4.) Kansas City Chiefs 4-12  (UNDER 8)

Yes, I am picking the offseason champions of the world to win just 4 games. Part of it is the tough schedule made tougher by the fact that I think the other three teams in the divsion will do well, but most of it is the fact that I don't understand what all the fuss is about. First of all, we've seen Romeo Crennel as a coach before, and it wasn't exactly all that good. Next, we've seen Matt Cassel, and other than a year with a ridiculously low interception total, that hasn't been that good in KC either. Eric Winston can only do so much. Their defense has major holes in the secondary with the loss of Brandon Carr, and on the d-line with unproven, underperforming talent. Most of all, though, they employ one of the worst coaches in the NFL as well as the worst QB in their division. That is a recipe for a disaster.



Projected Playoff Seeds

1.) Houston Texans 13-3
2.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (beat NE and PIT)
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (better con. record than NE)
4.) New England Patriots 12-4
5.) Oakland Raiders 10-6
6.) San Diego Chargers 9-7


Wild Card Playoffs

(3) Steelers over (6) Chargers 28-17 

The Steelers seem to match up really well with the Chargers over the years, and I see no reason why this would be any different. They can eliminate the Chargers run game, and their zone schemes don't really allow for the deep throws that Rivers loves. On the other side, the Chargers don't have the speed in the secondary to contain the fleet receivers at Ben's disposal.

  



(5) Raiders over (4) Patriots 27-24





One is allowed to dream, right? The Raiders played New England decently well last season, holding Brady to 16-30 passing, and being the team that actually played the best against Gronk (one catch). The Raiders even piled up 500 yards of offense, but two crucial turnovers doomed them in a 31-19 loss. Well, that Raiders team still had Denarius Moore in a subsidiary role and had Jason Campbell as the QB. Overall, though, I am allowed to dream, right?




Divisional Playoffs

(1) Texans over (5) Raiders 31-17

I'm not going to dream that far. The Raiders have always had problems stopping the run, and the Texans have the best run game in the NFL. No one on the Raiders can really stop Andre Johnson. On the other side of the ball, I doubt the Raiders o-line could handle the Texans front. All in all, a classic #1 seed blowout.


(2) Broncos over (3) Steelers 24-20

Manning finally gets another crack at the Steelers in the playoffs. Despite these two teams being the two most successful AFC teams outside of the Pats since 2000, they have had oddly few meetings. This could be a great game, and I expect Manning to just pull it off. The Steelers pass rush shouldn't come close to having the success against him that it had in the 2005 Divisional, and on the other side, I can see the Broncos giving Pittsburgh a tough time in pass rush.
 
AFC Title Game

(1) Texans over (2) Broncos 30-24

Just like Favre's dream season in 2009, Manning's ends one game away from teh Super Bowl. I just think this is the Texans time. Their defense is loaded. Their offense has great players at the skill positions and a they deserve to be healthy and good in teh same season for once. I can't see them dropping this game, although Manning is a lifetime 8-1 in that stadium. Definitely note that if this game does come to pass, I will almost definitely talk myself into picking the Broncos.

Super Bowl XLVII

(A1) Texans over (N2) Bears 27-20 

The Texans win because they are the most complete team in the NFL right now. They can run and pass at high efficiency. They can defend the run and the pass with a cadre of talented, young defenders in that front-seven and a back-end that is much, much better than it used to be. The Bears have talent, but it doesn't match up well. The Texans have the front to limit Forte, and the o-line to keep Peppers at bay. The Texans win their first Super Bowl in a close game.