The Wire: Top 50 Characters #23-11

23.) Duquan "Dukie" Weems



Dukie was probably the most pitiable, sympathetic member of the Little 4 Boys. His private life was built to be so openly awful. What a beautiful display of abject poverty, and the hidden treasures that lie in the piles of rubbish in deep Baltimore. One of the most special moments of the run of the show was when Dukie's face lights up when he gets the computer working. The one thing that ruined Dukie for me is that I saw his slide into drugs, and into working with the scrap-man as a little too quick. Dukie had the strongest moral standing of any of the kids, so his quick turn into a drug addict seemed off key. Dukie could have been so much more as a character, just as he could have been so much more as a person, but I guess that is the point.

 
22.) Chris Partlow



The Wee-Bey of the Stanfield crew, Partlow had about 1% more personality than Stanfield, but his stone demeanor felt more apt in his role as main enforcer. Partlow's calmness made his more human, more emotional moments seem so much more extreme. His callous beating of Michael's molester, drumming him like a mule. His quick thinking of asking each presumed foreign dealer a Baltimore related question was a stroke of genius. Partlow was a machine-like killer, but it was the mix of a calculating military general with a man ready to explode that made hm an intriguing character.

Memorable Quotes: "You ain't never want to be the last man to a party," & when he was forcing Bodie to take Stanfield's package, "Why ain't in your repertoire anymore." 


21.) Dennis "Cutty" Wise



I will say from now on until the #1 character, every single one is brilliant. Every one is brilliantly constructed, written, and acted. They are all round and dense. This is why The Wire is so brilliant. There are 21 incredible characters. Cutty was the only story of redemption gained in the run of The Wire. His transformation from inmate to returning enforcer to man without a cause, to owner and runner of a gym, to mentor. Cutty was the man of many roles, and he played them all well. His run in the gym might have been the only story on The Wire with a true happy ending. That said, it was always tough to see him try to reach out to boys like Spyder and more so Michael. Cutty was the symbol that the prison can do its intended process, that it can rehabilitate. And seeing Cutty changed by his time in prison, and reject his past and try to become a teacher a mentor so completely was wonderful. 

Memorable Quotes: "I ain't making myself clear. The Game ain't in me no more. None of it." (1:40) & "Young man, if I was talking to you, you would know." (0:45)


20.) Ziggy Sobotka



A lot of people thought he was a bad, annoying character and the worst of the Sobotka family members. I completely disagree. There was a better Sobotka, but Ziggy was such a complex character, a true Greek tragic figure. Ziggy, as Alan Sepinwall said, was a person who was just a clown. Had he gone to a normal college, he could have found a nice niche as a Frat joker. He was just misunderstood and misplaced in a world that demanded exacting work and patience from a man that had neither. Zig wanted to be his father. At least that is what he externally wanted, but it was the conflict between his desire and the fact that he just was not the person who could achieve it was the brilliance of Ziggy Sobotka. His crazy death spiral into a manic murderer, who shook and laughed in fear after offing the person who laughed at him one too many times, was just a startling storyline.

Memorable Quotes: "No, oh no. No Fucking Way. We had a deal montherfucker. You listen to me. It was my fucking ass on the line; mine. And this piddling shit, you don't play me like that. You don't!... Fuck you, you thieving Greek cunt.", with the duck, "Like I'm the only guy in South Baltimore to try to win the affections of a farm animal." & to his dad, "I remember when you all went down to picket them scabs at Covington piers... I remember when fat rick was killed dead... I remember everything, everything."


19.) D'Angelo Barsksdale



The first of four main S1 members who would be dead by S4, D'Angelo was one of the most interesting, complete characters in the show's history. He was the first man to question what the game was all about. He was the first one to think that violence does not need a place in the game. In many ways, he was the Barksdale version of Ziggy. He wanted to be Avon's protege, but he knew that this was not him, that in the end he was heading down an alley that was too dark and dangerous for him. Like Ziggy, he ended behind bars for years and years. D'Angelo was a figure who could both gain the largest of sympathy from the viewer while being someone who started the show escaping a murder charge that he was all too guilty of. His heart was what made him great. His heart was what also made him a victim, a man who wanted in and wanted out of the game at the same time.

Memorable Quotes: "This look like money to you, motherfucker. Money be green.", in the prison book-club about Gatsby, "You can change up, right? You can say you somebody new, you can give yourself a whole new story. But what came first - is who you really are. And what happened before - is what really happened. And it don't matter if some fool say he different, cause the only thing that make you different is what you do, is what you really go through." (0:42) & of course, "Where's Wallace at? Where's the boy, String?... Where's Wallace?... Where the fuck is Wallace, huh? String. String! Look at me! Where the fuck is Wallace?" (0:41)


18.) Roland "Prez(bo)" Prebylewski



No character grew as a person more than Prez. He was a hump cop that had a serious complex that he was too nerdy, too dumb to be a real police. His stunt where he cold-cocked that kid and blinded him in S1 just reassured the idea that Prez was (and here is a theme) a guy who wanted to be a cop and didn't at the same time (like Zig, and D'Angelo). Then we saw him crack a code, and a brilliant character was born. Prez was a genius who was tied to his personal heaven and hell at the same time as he was tied to inside office work. This allowed to see the brighter side of police-work, the side where he could make a difference. Of course, when he woke up from hibernation and was allowed back outside he unsuspectingly shot a cop. Which allowed him to go to school. Prez the teacher was an inspired move. He saw how he could really help Baltimore, really connect to people. His scenes with the kids were Gold. His relationship with Dukie was inspired. Prezbo became an incredible work of art.

Memorable Quote: "You trick them into thinking they aren't learning, and they do."


17.) Bunny Colvin



Bunny Colvin, the quiet star of the show's 3rd season, was a character who really grew on me. In the beginning, I found his whole idea of Hamsterdam a little too ridiculous for even The Wire, but when you see the incredible lengths he had gone in thinking that idea true, and the person of great character he was behind his idea, he became an incredibly well constructed character. It was obvious that the only reason Colvin thought of actually pulling his idea of a drug-free zone off was that he was about to retire anyway, but the idea itself worked. The saddest part of his storyline was almost everyone, from Rawls to Carcetti, saw the merit of the idea, saw that the idea of a drug-free zone made sense in every way. However, minds that challenge convention and push the edge of the envelope have no place in Baltimore. The fact that he decided to pull his idea in a more direct setting and help brash kids, and then had the heart to pull Namond away from a life of sure destruction. Colvin was really the closest thing the show had to a true hero in the sense of the word.

Memorable Quote: when introducing Hamsterdam, "Somewheres, back in the dawn of time, this district had itself a civic dilemma of epic proportion. The city council had just passed a law that forbid alcoholic consumption in public places, on the streets and on the corners. But the corner is, and it was, and it always will be the poor man's lounge. It's where a man wants to be on a hot summer's night. It's cheaper than a bar, catch a nice breeze, you watch the girls go by. But the law is the law. And the Western cops, rolling by, what were they going to do? If they arrested every dude out there tipping back a High Life, there'd be no other time for any other kind of police work. And if they looked the other way, they'd open themselves to all kinds of flaunting, all kinds of disrespect. Now, this is before my time when it happened, but somewhere back in the '50s or '60s, there was a small moment of goddamn genius by some nameless smoke hound who comes out the Cut Rate one day and on his way to the corner, he slips that just-bought pint of elderberry into a paper bag. A great moment of civic compromise. That small wrinkled-ass paper bag allowed the corner boys to have their drink in peace, and it gave us permission to go and do police work. The kind of police work that's worth the effort, that's worth actually taking a bullet for. Dozerman, he got shot last night trying to buy three vials. Three! There's never been a paper bag for drugs. Until now." (0:50)


16.) Jay Landsman



These next two might be totally way too high, but they are here just because they were consistently brilliant, not because they were all that deep. Landsman was nothing more than a consistent source of comedy for five seasons. His description of Fraemon and Bunk's style was hilarious. His ability to suck up to Rawls caused fits of laughter. His constant eating was a great idea. Mr. Overall's was the comic in the BPD. Nothing though was better than his speeches at the Police Wakes of Ray Cole and Jimmy. Jay Landsman liked nothing more than having fun, staring at nudie magazines, and staying put in a job he loved.

Memorable Quote: "Although there is some small charm to a woman being in uniform, we wear plain clothes in homicide. Which is not to say the clothes need to be plain. For you, I suggest some pantsuits, muted in color. Something to offset Detective Moreland's pinstripe lawyerly affectations and the brash, tweedy impertinence of Detective Freeman."


15.)William Rawls

Bill Rawls was a bad guy. He cared more about keeping his status than bettering the department. However, the biggest difference between him and Burrell was he didn't want to cheat. He didn't want to play games. He just wanted to get the most clearances he could. He wanted people to solve cases. Rawls demanded everything of his subordinates, and I loved him for it. His feud with and hatred for McNulty was so genuinely played that I sure thought he actually hated actor Dominic West and was playing that hatred out for real. Bill Rawls also gave one of the most real, least pandering speeches in the history of the show when he demanded McNulty to stop acting like a self-hating pissant after Kima was shot. Rawls was actually what a realistic head of a police department should be. Tough, caring and wanting fair police work.

Memorable Quote: "Listen to me, you fuck. You played a lot of cards, and, you made a lot of fucking people do a lot of things they didn't want to do... You, McNulty are a gaping asshole. We both know the, and fuck if everybody in CID didn't know it. But, I'll be also fucked if I let you sit here and think you did a single fucking thing to get a fucking cop shot. Believe it or not, not everything is about you. And the motherfucker telling you this, he fucking hates your guts. So, you know, if it was on you, I'd be the son of a bitch to tell you."(2:03 - but the whole scene is great Rawls), & after finding out about the fake serial killer, "You're not killing them yourself, McNulty? At least assure me of that." (0:29)


14.) Randy Wagstaff

Randy Wagstaff, the highest ranking member of the four kids, was the symbol of how easy innocence can be lost. He did nothing wrong but help lookout for two guys tag-teaming a girl in the bathroom. He did nothing wrong, but speak to the cops because he was afraid. He did nothing wrong, but he lost his foster mother, lost his house, and finally lost his innocence. Seeing Randy bulky and rugged in Season 5 was more heartbreaking to me than seeing Dukie take drugs (which just made me angry), or Michael turn into a killer. Seeing Randy lose that beautiful smile, that way of life was just horrible.

Memorable Quote: Yelling at Carver who let him down, "You gonna help, huh? You gonna look out for me? You gonna look out for me, Sgt. Carver? You mean it? You gonna look out for me? You promise? You got my back, huh?" (2:13)


13.) Bunk Moreland



I really had a hard time picking the order of the next two. They were clearly the 2nd and 3rd best characters from the BPD. Moreland was just so well done. He was McNulty, but was consistently charming. He was the perfect subordinate. He toed the line, did his job (and did it damn well), but didn't demand anything more or less from his job. He saw his work as his work. He knew how to play the bureaucratic game better than most. What I loved about Moreland to was his incredibly brazen, drunken attitude. McNulty was the person that we wanted a cop to be, while Moreland was the person that was what a cop is at his best. In Bunk we Trust.

Memorable Quote: "I'm just a humble mother fucker with a big ass dick... OK then. I'm not that humble," (0:24) & when chiding Omar, "Makes me a sick motherfucker how far we done fell." (3:37 - whole scene is great).


12.) Lester Freamon



Cool Lester Smooth. He was 'The Boss' of the BPD. He was the most interesting police in the world. He was a genius of a cop. He carved miniature furniture. He landed a classy stripper (believe me, not an oxymoron in this case). He believed in his work, but he believed in doing what he thought was right (not what the BPD thought was right). Lester Freamon was the guy who realized that Stanfield was dumping bodies in houses, and he was the guy who went along with McNulty's fake serial killer plan. Cool Lester Smooth. He wasn't just the black McNulty, but the black McNulty with more moves.

Memorable Quote: "You follow the drugs, you get drug addicts and drug dealers. You follow the money? You don't know where the fuck is going to take you."


11.) Spiros Vondas



I first had him a bit higher, but then I realized that he didn't have as much complexity as I first thought. He definitely fit the bill that the #2's are more important in most organizations (Stringer, Asst. Principal Donnelly, Burrell and Rawls as Deputies). Vondas was the classic gangster. He was calm. confident, calculating. He never got too hot or too cold, and mostly, he was loyal and saw potential. His fondness for Nick, viewing him as a protege and someone to mentor into the business was really the only other side he had, but that first side was good enough. He gave one half of the best dichotomy of lines in The Wire's history. The embodiment of capitalism (as The Wire showrunner David Simon called him and The Greek) was also the embodiment of the high profile gangster, the man who was high enough that however violent he was, he knew nothing would be brought back on him.

Memorable Quote: About Nick knowing his name, "He knows my name... but my name is not my name." (6:38)



The Top 10 is next, and they are all absolutely brilliant.

2011 NFL Playoffs: Looking Back at the Best Playoffs in Years

The 2011 season was God Awful for me. The Colts went 2-14. More importantly, Peyton Manning's career might be over, and his career with the Colts is almost certainly over. The Raiders blew a division title and Hue Jackson 15 minutes of fame came with a huge cost: one 1st round pick, and another 2nd. Of course, that pick could become another 1st if Palmer leads the Raiders to the AFC Title Game in 2012, which if that is the case, I guess I don't hate the trade (btw, I like getting Palmer. I think the Raiders will be a playoff team in 2012 - and if not for a ridiculous amounts of injuries to skill position guys, this was a playoff team in 2011 and a dangerous one), but I hate what it has led to. Then, the Pats got the 1st seed in the AFC again. Of course, I also had to see offense just turn the tables on defense, mainly because QBs are being protected to silly degrees. I'm sorry, but no matter how good Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Stafford are, they never should have ALL had the years they had in the same year. It was basically the steroid era of football in one season. Let's see if it continues in 2011. I'll say it now: No QB is throwing for 5,000 yards next year.

Anyway, I wrote before the playoffs started that this was a pivotal playoffs for the NFL if they didn't want to lose the defensive-fan base. Fans of defense were hanging on a thread all year. Fans of the idea that teams can be constructed in more than one way were hanging on a thread. Of course, in the end the Super Bowl pitted two teams with 4,900+ yd QBs and horrific pass defenses (at least in the regular season) but they fact that they were basically even with the defensive-oriented 49ers and Ravens? That made me smile. I mean, the Super Bowl could have easily, with changing just one play in each game (Evans holds onto the ball, and Bradshaw's forward progress was not deemed to have been stopped before fumbling), been a match up of Joe Flacco and Alex Smith at QB. In fact, I kind of wish this was the Super Bowl because that would have created some internal tension between all the people that have spent the year orgasming at Brady, Brees & Rodgers. Of course, we got a different matchup, but a very good game, and thankfully for me, Brady losing.

Here are my random thoughts on Super Bowl XLVI and the 2011 Playoffs in general:

• This might have been the best combination of title games and Super Bowl I have ever seen. Firstly, for the first time that I can remember we had two great Title Games. 2009 had a classic in Minnesota-New Orleans, and a fun game in Jets-Colts. 2008 had two close games. But this was two great games. That day of football was incredible. I do think the Ravens-Pats game would be remembered more fondly five years from now if it goes to OT (or Evans makes the catch). The fact that it ended with that field goal miss really hurt. The NFC Title Game was just perfect. Old-school football, in one of the few remaining cathedrals of football in Candlestick. That was an epic, and I can't wait to set aside three hours and watch it again.
• That said, the fact that the first two rounds of the playoffs gave us just two memorable games (Steelers-Broncos, Saints-49ers), and a few other interesting but ultimately forgettable games (CIN-HOU, HOU-BAL) and then a bunch of blowouts, does make the 2011 postseason a little less memorable. I am not sure if collectively it was as great a postseason as 2006. In fact, let's do a breakdown:
• Wild Card Round (worth 3/4ths of the other rounds): 2006 {Chiefs 8 @ Colts 23; Cowboys 20 @ Seahawks 21; Jets 16 @ Patriots 37; Giants 20 @ Eagles 23} vs. 2011 {Bengals 10 @ Texans 31, Lions 28 @ Saints 45, Falcons 2 @ Giants 24, Steelers 23 @ Broncos 29}
• I give 2006 a 8/10 (there's a curve for Wild Card weekend which almost always features some bad games). The only forgettable game was the first one. The Romo Fumble game is probably one of the 10 most famous playoff games in the past 10 years. The Jets-Pats game was closer than the score, and had the Mangini/Belichick handshake feud factor (remember, the handshake stuff started before Spygate). The Giants-Eagles game was a forgotten great game. I give 2011 a 6.5/10. It did have one classic game in the Tebow Redemption. The Bengals @ Texans game was exiting just because it was the first playoff game in Houston. The Saints game and Giants games were both extremely boring in the 2nd half.
• Divisional Round: 2006 {Colts 15 @ Ravens 6; Eagles 24 @ Saints 27; Seahawks 24 @ Bears 27; Patriots 27 @ Chargers 24} vs. 2011 {Saints 32 @ 49ers 36; Broncos 10 @ Patriots 45; Texans 13 @ Ravens 20; Giants 37 @ Packers 20}
• I give 2006 a 9.5. It is almost impossible to get a 10/10, and I probably give this the dinstinction of the best playoff weekend I have ever seen. My God, does it get better than that. The Colts @ Ravens game was the only one decided by more than 3 points, and it was a real slugfest of a game, a great chess match between Manning and the best defense of the past 5 years. The Saints game is still the loudest playoff atmosphere I have seen. It was the first playoff game in the Superdome since Katrina. The Bears/Seahawks game is probably the most underrated overtime playoff game of the past 10 years. The Chargers/Patriots game was an instant-classic, with Marty's final act, the "clutch" 3-int performance of Brady, and the whole LT vs. Belichick classy debate after. Man, what a weekend. I give 2011 a 6/10. There was one awful game at the most fun timeslot. There was another boring slugfest (Texans @ Ravens). Giants @ Packers was fun in a way, but the only game I would watch again is the Saints @ 49ers, which was admittedly an awesome game and probably on its own better than any of the 2006 games.
• Conference Title Sunday: 2006 {Saints 14 @ Bears 39; Patriots 34 @ Colts 38} vs. 2011 {Ravens 20 @ Patriots 23; Giants 20 @ 49ers 17}
• This is incredibly difficult. I'll give 2006 a 8/10. The Pats/Colts game arguably the best non-Super Bowl in at least 20 years. The Bears Saints game was a 2 point game late in the 3rd quarter. It was by no means a great game, and was really sloppy, but it was definitely more entertaining than that scoreline would indicate. The 2011 pair gets a 9.5/10 though. That was incredible. I don't either game individually was as good as the Pats/Colts game, but the Giants/49ers was damn close. That was truly an epic. Books could be written about that game.
• Super Bowl: 2006 {Colts 29 vs. Bears 17} vs. 2011 {Giants 21 vs. Patriots 17}
• This isn't close. I will say that 2006 featured the best 1st quarter in Super Bowl history. There were three 50+ yard plays, Hester's KO Ret TD, Wayne's long TD, Three turnovers, and a bobbled hold. All in the 1st quarter. Also it gets some bonus points for being in the rain. The 2006 game gets a 7/10. This past week gets a 9/10. Great game between two totally even teams. That was the best part about it.
• Final Tally 2006 (8/10 * .75 + 9.5/10 + 8/10 + 7/10) = .7625 vs. 2011 (6.5/10 *.75 + 6/10 + 9.5/10 + 9/10) = .7344. 2006 wins, by a hair.
• Anyway, now that that extremely long, pointless tangent is over, let's get back to the Super bowl.
• Eli Manning is not better than Peyton Manning. I love Eli. He's given me two great fan moments in Super Bowl XLII and Super Bowl XLVI. He's slayed my most hated dragon. He's also been a key member of two epic NFC Title Games. He's also the younger brother of my favorite QB, and what Peyton loves, we love. That said, please. He is not better than Eli. After the Super Bowl every show asked the same question about Eli, which was "Is he a Hall of Famer?". If there even needs to be a debate about that, then how the hell is "Is Eli better than Peyton?" even up for debate? Peyton Manning was recently ranked by a panel of old players, coaches, executives and journalists as the #8 NFL Player of all time (this was before the 2010 season). Peyton has more MVP's than Eli has pro-bowl appearances. This was by far Eli's best statistical season of his career (regular season), and it would be behind Peyton's 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons. Basically, at this juncture, Eli's best season was comaprable to Peyton's 7th best season.
• That said, Eli is going to be a HOFer. So is Tom Coughlin. The media I feel like only puts more importance on Super Bowls now than they used to, even though people generally are smarter when analyzing sports. People who are smart when analyzing sports realize that teams win games and players don't. Also, a QB can perform well and lose. Peyton has perfected this. Anyway, Congratulations to Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and the rest of the Giants. Incredible Job.
• For the fifth time in seven years, a team that did not have a first-round bye won the Super Bowl. I think the days of the bye teams dominating is long past. That said, I wouldn't try to make this into something more important than it is. This doesn't mean teams should not aim for the bye, or be afraid of resting their starters (didn't seem to hurt anyone in 2009 apart from San Diego and Cincinnati). But people should no longer get angry that weaker and weaker teams are winning Super Bowls.
• The Giants should be good next year. I actually think they are going to follow the same formula from 2007 just a little but further. In 2008, the Giants started out 11-1 and were the best team in the NFL at that point. Around that time, Plax decided to shoot himself in the leg, and then Eli discovered that he couldn't throw in the wind in the Divisional Round against the Eagles. In 2012, I think something similar will happen. It would not surprise me to see the Giants go 13-3. Also, if I had to pick who to play the role of Plax, I'll go with Victor Cruz. He already seems to love dancing, so a night club with a gun is just two steps away.
• That said, it would not surprise me to see the Giants not win a playoff game next year. The NFC is just loaded right now. The Packers, 49ers and Saints are due for some regression, but the Lions are still on the upswing, and the Eagles should definitely be better. The Bears get Cutler back, and when he got hurt, the Bears were a top-5 team. Also, when Peyton Manning's laces it up for the Cardinals, you have them in the mix as well. 
• As for the AFC. It looks like a done deal for the Pats to get back right now, but I think the Ravens and Steelers will be right there. People seem to think that the Ravens are old on defense, but that age is primarily Lewis and Reed, who are both nowhere near as essential to the Ravens as they were three years ago (especially Lewis). The Texans should also be great assuming they don't have horrific injury luck again. That said, the AFC is not deep at all. Sleeper team: San Diego. I can't wait to get screwed over by them again.
• To finish this up, Congratulations again to the Giants. They showed again how hard work and team play, as well as supreme confidence, can make any team great. Of course, it helps when that team is also talented and capable of playing great. The Giants have now saved me from two more Patriots titles and I can't thank them enough. Thanks, Big Blue.

Enjoy the offseason!!!

2011 NFL Playoffs: Super Bowl XLVI - A Beautiful Game

I know what it feels like to lose a Super Bowl that was legacy defining (I guess you all knew what it felt like as well). I know what it is like when nothing goes your way in a game. For us, it was Garcon's huge drop on what would have been a 30+ yard pass up 10-3. Or Kendra's lap-dog husband muffing that onside kick. Or our coach asking our ancient kicker to attempt a 51 yard field goal. For us Colts fans, because of the events of the following 24 months since February 2010, that game hurts more and more. I don't want the Pats to win another Super Bowl in this era (maybe one around 2030 will be fine), but I hope that Pats fans feel worse about the game today than you will in February 2014 (and also that your QB is not having a public pr game with an over-his-head owner).

As for the game. It was one of the most even Super Bowl's I have ever seen, and a game where I think every unit played well. The Pats defense tightened in the red zone like they always do. The Giants defense held the Patriots to only short gains, and once the rush got going in the middle of the 3rd quarter, they effectively held the Patriots at bay. Both offenses had their moments, with the Giants starting hot and rarely having a bad drive (just too many that petered out even before field goal range), while the Pats for two straight drives looked like a machine on offense. This was a Super Bowl, but after all the hype and the buildup it was just a game of football. A good one. A beautiful one.

I like defense. By rule, this made me hate the ridiculous offensive numbers that the 2011 football season produced. That opinion might have changed had my favorite quarterback been able to get it on the fun, but it still hurt me to see three teams score 500 points, and three QBs throw for 5,000 yards and two of them smash Marino's record. I mean, nothing better exemplified this ridiculous season like Matthew Stafford throwing for 5,000 yards and 40 tds and being statistically no better than the 4th best QB in the NFL in 2011. Nothing then made me happier than the last three games of the 2011 NFL season. No team scored more than 23. No QB threw for more than 316 yards, and that QB needed 61 passes to do so. More incredibly, no team topped 400 yards of total offense. I loved it. I might have hated the outcome of the AFC Title Game, but it was good to know that defense still mattered.

And nowhere was this more true than in Super Bowl XLVI. One team scored 19 offensive points, and the other scored 17. This was probably the best game the modern pass-happy NFL can give you. Each yard was hard to come by. Eli Manning had to hit some really tight windows. Tom Brady was pressured, and when he wasn't, nothing was open downfield. The defenses weren't perfect, but a 9-6 game would have been boring. The defenses were good enough. The offenses were good enough. In all honesty, both teams were good enough. One team just got a little more breaks.

This wasn't Super Bowl XLII. That was one of the greatest teams having a bad game against a good team having a great game. This was different. This was two teams that by this point of the season were both about equal, and both played about equal, but one team just made one more play. This is the type of game that the NFL is all about. The fact that it was a Super Bowl made it all the more special. To me, this was the best, most evenly played, Super Bowl since the Rams evaded overtime by a yard. This was pure football. And honestly, it made me feel for the Pats for the first time ever.

I obviously felt nothing but glee after the last playoff game the Pats played in Indy. I felt nothing but more glee about seeing 18-0 go down in flames in the most amazing way possible. I even lapped up every bit of that beatdown the Ravens handed to them two years ago. But this, I actually felt bad. It might have been that haunting look at Robert Kraft react to the hail mary bouncing on the ground, and realizing that the season that helped him escape his personal tragedy was over. It humanized Kraft. Seeing Wes Welker, a man that I've never liked ever since his "F**k you" that he yelled after catching the game-icing pass in Super Bowl 41.5, reduced to tears because he dropped what was, in my mind, a damn hard pass humanized him. (I should say that to you all these guys have always been human, but to a Pats hater, not so much). I actually felt bad for even Brady, who I think was hurt in some way by that sack by Tuck in the 3rd quarter, as he was quite mediocre after that. He was playing lights out in the biggest game, but was undone by his body (again, I'm assuming he was injured in some way). I hate the fact that this game made me feel bad about hating the Pats so much.

This was a great exhibition of football played well. It wasn't just great offense, just great defense, it was good everything. It was the definition of a good, close, tight, well-played football game. And, if the end result is it makes me reconsider my hatred of a team that doesn't do anything but win and get silly levels of praise from people living from 7 years ago (see: "You can't bet against Belichick with two weeks to prepare"), then I'll take it. That's a fine side effective of a beautiful game.

I'll have some thoughts about the actual game a bit later.

and of course.... Bradying

2011 NFL Playoffs: Super Bowl Pick

Well, it is here. I have avoided all the hype, and the talking heads, all the things that usually make the two-week lead-up to a Super Bowl a waste of time for me. I've tried to separate myself. Why? Because the Pats somehow won another playoff game they barely deserved. How many times have I seen that script. Baltimore did almost everything right, but at the end, their guy just couldn't hold onto the ball in the end zone for another half-second. Anyway, I'm finally over that whole ordeal. I don't know if John Harbaugh and more so Billy Cundiff are, but I am. I am ready to start talking about this game.

Super Bowl XLVI

New York Giants vs New England Patriots (-2.5)

I was really confident after Championship Sunday that the Giants would win. It wasn't like my 'confidence' about the Ravens winning. I thought they could, I knew it would be close, but I wasn't surprised. My immediate reaction to the Super Bowl was that I would be surprised if New England won. I'm not that anymore. Maybe it is the two week layoff. Maybe it me coming out of my denial that New England could easily win the Super Bowl AGAIN. Maybe it is all of these things, but I am now a lot more concerned than I was fourteen days ago.

It isn't all due to the fact that more people seem to be picking the Giants, and that is because that is a really overused line. The Patriots are still the official favorites. The picks are maybe 60/40 for the Giants, and as far as experts go, it is leaning towards New England. ESPN had 40 people pick the game, and it went 22-18 NE. SI had five people, and it was 4-1 for New England. The funniest part was that a lot of the people picking New England were saying that they loved them because no one is picking them. A lot of people are.

No, the reason I am concerned is that this isn't as clear.cut as I thought. The Patriots defense has stepped up against the better teams they have played. The Patriots offense is still very good and I don't think anyone on the Giants can really cover Wes Welker. The Giants o-line is not very good and the Patriots pass rush is actually evident this year. I still like the Giants though, but I am just not sure. I do not think the Patriots can stop the Giants enough. To me, that is a bigger mismatch than the the other side of the Pats offense and the Giants defense. The Giants defense is substantially better now than it was in the middle of the year. Michael Boley is the play-caller of the defense. He was missing a lot of the season. That pass rush is better now than what it was earlier in the season. Osi is healthy. Tuck is healthy. JPP is a beast. The pass rush isn't as good as it was in 2007, but it doesn't need to be because the Pats aren't as good in 2007, especially at the o-line. The o-line in 2007 was incredible until the Super Bowl. This o-line wasn't as good.

Anyway, I'm nowhere near as confident as I was when the two-week break started. I think this game is going to be damn close, which will be bad for my heart pressure and sanity. I think the Giants will win the game, but I won't be surprised if the Pats win. I'll just be incredibly depressed as a sports fan.

Giants  27 (NYG)  Patriots (23)

The Wire: Top 50 Characters #36-24

We return to my countdown of the Top-50 Wire Characters. This list will takes us through politics, police, drugs and docks. Basically, well, a nice little look at the entirety of The Wire's breadth. Let's get going.

36.) Odell Watkins



Old Wheel-Chair bound Odell Watkins was interesting to me mainly because he was basically a metaphor. He was the symbol of the disproportionate influence lower members of government have over higher members. Because Odell was closer in governmental distance to the people of Baltimore, he held their beliefs, he was their leader, moreso than Mayor Royce or Tommy Carcetti. Plus, it was funny that even The Wire, a show that never followed any usual tv trope, did fill out the "Handicapped character" in it's "How to exhaustively fill out each type of person" checklist.


35.) Clay Davis



If Odell was the symbol he was, Clay Davis was an even more obvious, but nonetheless important, symbol of outsider's influence in politics. Clay Davis was one of the most despicable people to appear in that hellscape of Baltimore. That said, he has to be on this list. Him not on it.... 'Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit"

Memorable Quote: "Fool, what do you think? That we know anything about who gives money? That we give a damn about who they are or what they want? We have no way of running down them or their stories. We don't care. We just cash the damn cheques, count the votes and move on."


34.) Beadie Russell



Adorable Beadie Russell. Her transition from naive, innocent dock cop to adequate member of the detail in Season 2 was as implausible as it was interesting. However, her great job in dealing with McNulty is a boyfriend was a much more interesting storyline. Also, the scene of McNulty appearing at Beadie's doorstep late in S3 was beautiful (as much as she was in the scene).

Memorable Quote: "The next time, you leave. Because I own this fucking house."


33.) Nick Sobotka



I found his protege-mentor relationship with Vondas to be much more interesting on the Vondas side than the Nick side. I am probably one of the few people who have Nick as the least interesting of the three main Sobotkas. He never really changed, and I thought his straight turn to the drug life seemed a little more stretched than that of his cousin and Uncle. Nick did have a hot girlfriend though. That was a nice touch.


32.) Gus Haynes



Gus Haynes was the main protagonist of the S5 Baltimore Sun story arc. However, unlike almost every other 'protagonist' on the show, there was no bad qualities of Haynes. He was written and played as a straight, good, smart editor with high integrity. That basically makes him a saint on the Wire. Creator David Simon (former writer for the Baltimore Sun) was criticized by a lot in the journalism community for the Sun storyline because they saw it as a malicious portrayal of a newspaper where a smart editor (Haynes/Simon) was undone by bad bosses (Klebanow). To me, that really shone through.

Memorable Quotes: "You know what a healthy newsroom is? It's a magical place where people argue, all the time."


31.) Michael Lee



Talk about a tragic figure. Actually, that can be said about all of the four kids in S4, but Michael Lee might be the most haunting. The fact that he emitted a great sense of character that all the authority figures in his life (teacher, trainer, Marlo) all wanted to mentor him was made more painful due to the fact that he was molested as a child and didn't trust authority. The only one that he could connect with was Marlo, mainly because Marlo wasn't old enough so Michael didn't see him as a possible monster hiding behind a helpful smile. His transition into drug runner was as sad as his ending transition into the new Omar was hysterical.

Memorable Quotes: To Chris and Snoop, "Marlo ain't suck no dick, right? So, if Marlo knows he ain't suck dick, then what the fuck he care what Junebug say? What anybody say? Why this boy gotta get dead just for talkin' shit?"


30.) Kima Greggs



She was probably the only cop who didn't have any real bad blood in her. She was the moral one. I'm not sure if The Wire didn't go a little too far in making her a moralist. Her not pretending to see Wee-Bey shoot her was one thing. That was reasonable. Her turning in McNulty and Freamon by alerting Daniels about the fake serial killer? The worst thing she did was lose her relationship after she felt forced by her partner to agree to adopt a child. That did lead to her absolutely magnificent scene with the boy in S5.

Memorable Quote: To her son to make him sleep, "Let's say goodnight to everybody... Goodbye moon... goodnight stars... goodnight po-pos... goodnight fiends... goodnight hoppers... goodnight hustlers... goodnight scammers... goodnight to everybody... goodnight one and all."


29.) Snoop Pearson



Honestly, it took me about two episodes to realize that Snoop was a girl. And damn if this wasn't one of the most daring characters (and casting decisions) in TV history. Not only were they going to make one of Marlo's two top enforcers, nonetheless one as ruthless and violent as Snoop, a female, but then Simon went out and cast a convicted drug dealer with little previous acting experience to play the role. Snoop was damn hard to understand, but was interesting mainly for just how unique the whole situation was. I was surprised by how much her death hurt me as a viewer.

Memorable Quotes: "Man already shit himself....and we ain't get started yet! He's funky, yo." &  before Michael kills her, "How my hair look, Mike?"


28.) Slim Charles



On the list for two reasons; 1.) He kills Cheese is the baddest way possible - when Cheese was in mid-rant. And he did it for Prop Joe. 2.) He won the game. By not caring about loyalties (switching seamlessly from Barksdale to Prop Joe after S3) and turf and West-vs-East, he was the last man standing. Of course, that fucker Fat Face Rick was also there, but we know Slim was gonna run Bal'mor.

Memorable Quote: "Don't matter who did what to who at this point. Fact is, we went to war and there ain't no turnin' back. I mean, shit, it's what war is, you know? Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie. But we gotta fight."


27.) Lt. Cedric Daniels



Did anyone chage from good to bad, from supporter of good police work to ardent company man more than Lt. Daniels? His ability to do this, and accomplish both, was incredible. He showed that there is a way to advance in the BPD while doing good work, something that McNulty (good police, shitty company man) and Herc (company man, bad police) could never understand. There was nothing scarier in early episodes of The Wire than that menacing, quiet stare of Daniels. He was also the one man who did hold some integrity the higher in the BPD he went.

Memorable Quotes: "You'd rather live in shit than let the world see you work a shovel" & when told that their detail was going to end prematurely, "This is BULL-SHIT


26.) The Greek



Shady, shady man. The Greek was the baddest gangster on the show. Avon, Marlo, Prop. Those bitches (and they were bitches compared to the Greek) came and went. The Greek is there forever. Created as the embodiment of capitalism, the Greek encaptured what the drug was is about at the highest level (that of the distributor). It is money. Period. It is business. "Business, always business." The only reason he isn't higher is that he wasn't shown all that much.

Memorable Quote: After Vondas tells him that the cops only know him as The Greek, "But of course, I'm not even Greek."



25.) Tommy Carcetti 



He's a character who I wonder if David Simon increased his role after it started.  Tommy Carcetti started out as a gutless, filandering, political climber who cheated on his cute wife at any chance. However, when Tommy found out that he actually had a shot to win the mayoral race, he actually grew. He then became a man who actually seemed to think he could change Baltimore. He was a bad human in his personal life, but someone with the convictions of a great leader. Of course, his final use was to be The Wire's symbol for the inevitable problem of government: there are too many people to appease to and too much red tape to get anything done, regardless of intentions.

Memorable Quotes: "Yummy, my first bowl of shit" & "This is Baltimore. No one lives forever."




24.) Marlo Stanfield



Yup. The Kingpin who got out without jail is put as the first man in the upper half. It wasn't that Marlo wasn't a good character. He was a great illustration of the horrible path the drug war is taking. It is more about violence, about pride, about individualism than it ever was. Marlo didn't care about living. He didn't care about friends, family. All he cared about was being the king, no matter how long that reign lasted. His final outcome where he was basically ex-communicated from the game, was arguably the most interesting end for any character. Marlo kept his money, he kept his freedom. But he might be more shackled than ever. He doesn't have the one thing he always wanted: the crown, and the reputation as a legendary gangster; dead or alive.

Memorable Quotes: To Prop Joe, "I ain't made to play the son." & of course, "What the fuck you know about what I need on my mind, motherfucker? My name is on the street? When we bounce from this shit here y'all gonna go down to them corners, let them people know: word did not get back to me! Let 'em know Marlo step to any motherfucker: Omar, Barksdale, whoever. My name is my name!"

The Wire: Top 50 Characters #50-37

I just finished watching all 5 seasons of The Wire. For the first time. I make that distinction because guess what I did after finishing the 5th season: started it all over again. I honestly think I could do that cycle three or four times. The show is just too amazing. I went in expecting big things, mainly because I had heard from many people, and read many times, that this was the best show of the past decade. That this was possibly the greatest tv drama of all time. Of course, I also thought it was just a show about the drug war inner Baltimore. God, did I underestimate just how encompassing the show would be. The wonderful 2nd season about the decline of blue-collar America through the eyes of the ports in Baltimore (a season that basically kept half of the characters from S1 on the bench for a year) made me realize that this was no ordinary show. The best part of the show was just how incredible all the characters were. It speaks volumes about a show that basically all the non-police characters in the 1st season would either be dead or in jail by Season 4, and I didn't care at all. Each character was opened and analyzed fully. There was no good and there was no bad. The goods had demons. The bads had wonderful characteristics. The only purely evil character I could think of was Marlo, but even he was constructed in a brilliant way, as a evil born from the womb of a city that turned itself away from its problems. The Wire really did change my way of thinking about just how great the television medium could be.

The irony is that all this happened about 4 months after I had decided that a show I had just finished burning through was the best drama I had ever seen. That show was Breaking Bad. There are still things that Breaking Bad does better than The Wire. Breaking Bad has more nerve-racking moments (partly because The Wire episodes rarely end with a cliff-hanger, as their most dramatic, tense moments happen in the second to last act). Breaking Bad is shot more artistically. Anyway, as good as Breaking Bad is, it is not The Wire. It really isn't close. (saying all this, Breaking Bad is closer to The Wire in my book than any sitcom I have ever seen is to Arrested Development).

Just for a quick intro into my mindset of the wire. My favorite season is the first. It is the simplest, in that it really has only one major plot: the detail vs. the Barksdale Organization. Every other season has more. That said, I just loved everything about the first season. Season 4 (most people's favorite) is 2nd. I love every non-drug stroyline about S4 (the politics, the school, the four kids) but I just never loved the Stanfield era of the show. The Barksdale crew always seemed a lot more interesting and, as weird as this sounds about a gang of murderous drug lords, lovable. My overall season ranking is 1-4-3/2 (tied) - 5. That said, even S5 has its brilliant moments (one that particularly stands out is Bubbles' speech late in the season where he admits to poisoning Sherrod to his NA group).

This ranking is purely random. Purely based on just how memorable and thought-inducing the characters were. I am strange in that I often consider certain characters a lot more interesting than the who the general public considers so. Case in point is that good ol' Arrested. In my mind, Lucille is the most consistently brilliant character on the show, but I doubt most people have her in their top 3. That is the way I am looking at this list. If you haven't seen the show... SEE IT NOW. In reality, this will be filled with spoilers. It will probably mention if a certain character dies and such. It will also be released in two parts, because it will take some time. Here we go, my personal favorite characters - numbers 50 through 26.

50.) Rhonda Pearlman



I never really thought of her as a great character. She really had no true emotions. She was a little more demonstrative in early seasons. Also, her romance with Daniels felt a little rushed, and I think that really silenced her character.

Memorable Quote: After Clay Davis compares himself to Martin Luther King while on trail, "They don't teach that in law school."


49.) Thomas Klebanow



The first of just two members of S5's Newspaper Staff, Klebanow was the managing editor of the Sun, and a man totally obsessed with awards. The reason why Klebanow's position (and really the reason that I didn't care for a lot of the newspaper stories) didn't make an impact was that there was no other side. We never really got to see what made him a person who cared solely about awards, especially when Pulitzer Prizes do not sell papers.


48.) Cheese Wagstaff



There are multiple characters listed mainly for one small thing or part (or even line) that they had hand in. Cheese is one of them. Played by Method Man (the only established rapper to play a recurring role in The Wire - mostly because he actually auditioned for the role), Cheese was memorable for his incredible disloyalty, and the way he was ceremoniously killed. That sequence of him railing against nostalgia and remembering and caring for the old, and then being capped mid-diatribe by Slim was excellent. Also, the dogfighting scene (which happened before Vick) was hauntingly real.

Memorable Quote: "Omar had one of them commando squads with him man. I mean, he had this one ho pullin' guns out her pussy, Unc. That shit was unseemly, man" (go to 5:14 for the line)



47.) Sergei Malatov



The badass enforcer of The Greek Organization, Sergei was the man. He had no real memorable scenes, and never had much depth. That said, his reappearance in S5 was great. I don't really know what to say about Sergei, but that I probably am the only one who would even have him on a list. Also, I found the recurring bit of everyone calling him 'Boris' one of the more humorous sources of comedy.

Memorable Quote: "Did [the body] have hands? Did it have a face? Yes?... Then it wasn't us"



46.) Stan Valchek



Arguably the most reprehensible member of the police force on the show, Valchek is mostly remembered for being the man whose ridiculous grudge is responsible for essentially what happened in S2. Because the port workers union beats him in a race to get an imported stain glass painting up in the polish church, Valchek decides that it is time to look into where they are getting that extra cash. That sets everything up. And for being the man responsible for the most underrated season of the shows run, he gets on the list.


45.) Brother Mouzone



I think adding him to a show that already had Omar was a little too much. He was also too stereotypical in the way that his purpose was to be a clean, erudite killer. It seemed a little broad of a character in a show filled with the most realistic characters ever. That said, he did have his moments. I could have done without the bow-tied assassin.

Memorable Quote: [to Cheese] "Let me be emphatic: You need to get your black ass across Charles Street where it belongs"



44.) Clarence Royce



His scene with Carcetti after he lost the election (the one where he tells Carcetti to sit in his chair) is to me a great scene because it shows Royce unfettered. For once, he wasn't politicking. He was a man who had a burden lifted, and it was a beautiful moment. He was finally able to have a real conversation, able to be amiable. That makes up for the fact that as a mayor, he was a total dick.

Memorable Quote: "Come November, I'm still going to be the only game in town. Odell, don't turn your back on me." and after Odell leaves, "Fuck that holier than thou mother fucker."


43.) Maurice Levy



Another thing that Breaking Bad did better was they came up with a more interesting attorney for the drug pushers. Levy was definitely sleazier (and a lot more hilariously Jewish), but wasn't as funny. It was great to see him be delighted when Marlo's crew finally started using cell phones for the sole reason that that would allow the police a better chance of catching him, netting Levy a bigger fee. That's the level of capitalistic sleaze I want from a crooked lawyer.


42.) Ellis Carver



He was a cop who, through his failure to make Lieutenant over his seemingly bumbling buddy, broke good. He really did change more than all but one cop (who comes a lot higher up the list). He really grew as a person. Sadly, this changed seemed a little too forced, as he went from a stereotypical fake tough guy cop who bashed nobodies for fun to a guy willing to rat out a subordinate cop who did the same thing. Not sure if I totally bought that.

Memorable Quote: After Wee-Bey claims that he didn't know the drug money was in the van, " You know, I know how that shit is. The other day, I took up the sofa cushions on my couch, I found a buck forty I didn't know was there"


41.) Ervin Burrell



David Simon created Burrell in a really interesting fashion. In the first few episodes, he was seemingly the good cop (as opposed to William Rawls - who wanted McNulty's ass on a plate). But, from the moment that he told Daniels to give back Day-Day Price's drug money because he was a state senator's driver, we then saw what Burrell really was: a career politician dressed as a cop. He was only interested in self-preservation. What made him interesting is that he was a tragic figure in his inability to adjust. He was developed in a culture where crime rate was everything, and was put in charge of a culture where it wasn't.

Memorable Quote: To his subordinates, "The Gods are fucking you? You find a way to fuck them back. It's Baltimore, gentleman. The God's will not save you."


40.) Anton "Stinkum" Artis 



The first of the Barksdale Big 4 is far below the other three, but considering a lot of people probably would not even remember Stinkum, I wanted him on the list. His death really signaled the beginning of the end of the Glorious Barksdale Organization. I loved Stinkum for his ridiculous line read about Omar on the basketball court. Anton Artis; Gone long before he should have.

Memorable Quotes: About Omar, "You know Bird jail with Omar down the cut right? He said he all faggot" (line at 0:42); "Nigga, you think I gonna run a stop with forty thousand. Fuck, No!"

39.) Marcia Donnelly



She always seemed fun because of the level of respect she commanded in Tilghman Middle School. First of all, she was a white, which at Tilghman meant something. I'm surprised the kids never acted out. Also, she was just the Assistant Principle. This was arguably the most prominent use of the long-standing Wire trope that the #2 in most organizations is the real figure of importance (Vondas, Stringer, Donnelly). For most of the season, you don't even see the actual principle.


38.) Judge Daniel Phelan



He was a huge figure in S1. He was the Valchek of S1, in that it was his actions that led to the Barksdale detail being created, and the detail actually accomplishing something. His odd attraction to Pearlman was strange, as was his mentor-like relationship of McNulty. He's another character here more because of one great line.

Memorable Quote: After telling Burrell to let the Wire continue to be up lest he be brought in on chargers of contempt of court, to McNulty, "Who's your Daddy now?"


37.) Namond Brice



The first of the other Big 4 - The Four Schoolchildren from S4 - Namond was the only one saved. The lesson was supposed to be to show the extreme lengths necessary that someone has to go to to save someone from the drug world, but Namond also served to show that the special class in S4 did work, as before it was disbanded, he was making progress. A lot of people never viewed Namond as a tragic, sympathetic figure, which the other three boys all seemed to be. I always felt differently, as he was the only one who grew up with means, but as a condition almost, he was forced into the game when he never wanted any part of it. He was deathly afriad of the Game, but more afraid of failing to live up to family expectations. He was quietly a deep character.

Memorable Quote: After Colvin tells Carver that it was only a few weeks ago that Namond said 'Mr. Colvin, Fuck You,' - "Yo, at least I said mister"

2011 NFL Playoffs: Championship Round Picks

So, here we are. The last day of true football for 2011. It is arguable that these have been the most depressing 19 weeks of my football watching career. From the moment it was announced that Peyton needed another surgery back in September, until now, I have seen passing offenses bastardize the game to a level where three guys threw for 5,000+ yards, and one more got stuck in the 4,900's (not to mention Rodgers who ended with 4,600+ and didn't play Week 17). I finally got some respite last weekend as the Saints and Packers were both exiled by teams who had great defensive performances. The Giants are not the great defense that the 49ers are, but when that pass rush is coming, they are about as good. Only one great offense is left (although Mr. 4,900 yards is still around as well), but defense can really show who owns the NFL if Baltimore can take out the Patriots.

I will say now that I am praying for the Ravens to beat New England. If they do, I honestly would not care one minute about who wins the Super Bowl between the three remaining teams (Ravens, Giants, 49ers). If the Patriots win, well, I don't care who wins in the NFC, because I think they are really close to even, and either could beat New England in the Super Bowl. That said, I just want the football Gods to grant me this one wish. Sure, I've been given a Super Bowl as a gift, but I also had to deal with heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss. Colts fans have already experienced losing like the Steelers did to Denver this year. We were there, in 2008, playing as a 12-4 Wild Card at an 8-8 champ from the AFC West. We too didn't see the ball in OT. We too fell victim to a higher power. No, it wasn't Tebow, but it was Mike Scifres pinning four punts inside the 10 yard line. Colts fans have also experienced what Packers fans feel now. We were there, in 2005, as the clear best team in the NFL, playing with a heavy heart after the tragic death of a coach's sun. We were playing a team we had already beat, but fell victim to a hot QB, and a great pass rush. Colts fans have also experienced losing like the Saints. We were there in 2007, twice blowing the lead in the 4th quarter, and having the ignominy of giving up a 4th quarter comeback to Billy Volek of all people. I've been there. All I ask is this year, let those damn Pats lose. Let Ed Reed get a chance at a ring. Tom Brady doesn't need any more. Gronk will have plenty more opportunities to get one. Ed Reed is deserving. He's a top-5 all-time safety. He should get a ring. Anyone but NE. Anyone but NE.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-7.5)

This is a large line. This is definitely a classic case of overrating the previous weekend. All the time we hear that the NFL, much like March Madness, is about winning and advancing. That there are no style points, that this isn't a BCS system, and all that matters is you get the win and move on. Well, the Ravens got that last week. And for how mediocre they played in the first half, they shut the Texans down in the 2nd. The Texans drives in the 2nd half went: punt, punt, punt, int, punt, int, downs. Foster didn't get much in the 2nd half. On the other side you have the Patriots who obliterated Denver. That said, Denver should never have even been in the playoffs. Denver wasn't worthy of being one of the last eight teams. Denver has lost games just like that before. Hell, they lost a game by a worse score at home. Detroit slammed Denver 45-10. They were up 45-3. They sacked Tebow 7 times, and returned a pick for a TD. What did Detroit then do? Lose three of their next four. Beating Denver one week doesn't automatically make you "unstoppable". We went through this exact same thing last year with Green Bay. They smashed Atlanta 48-21 in the divisional round, and then squeaked by Chicago, nearly blowing a 14-0 lead to a third string QB (they did cover, but their offense was slowed down - a lot). That was actually more impressive, beating the NFC's #1 seed on the road. This was beating the playoff fraud. I have a feeling that if just two of those Brady TD passes, were rushing touchdowns, this line is two points lower. Also, people always overreact to teams coming off of big wins. Teams in the playoffs coming off of wins of 20+ points are 8-12 the next week, and teams that score 40+ points in a playoff win are 4-8 the following week, and just 2-10 against the spread (the two ATS wins were the 2010 Packers and 2003 Colts; the 2009 Saints and 2004 Pats won the following week but lost ATS). Simply put, teams that were great in one game get overrated.

As for the matchups. The key for NE is getting pressure. You aren't going to take away their tight ends. The best way is just to make Brady throw it soon enough to limit them. Baltimore's pass rush was below par against the Texans, but the Texans have a great o-line. The Patriots line isn't nearly as good as the Patriots o-lines of years past. Suggs and Ngata both have favorable matchups. The Ravens don't have the cover guys to really stop Gronk one-on-one (personally, I think you play to stop Gronk. Hernandez is just merely a nice TE, not a monster like Gronk, but he gets pumped up due to playing with Gronk), but they do have the players in the middle to make them struggle to get open and get YAC. I don't think there will be any plays for Gronk like that TD in the Redskins game where he broke tacklers all over the place. No, the Ravens will get him on the ground. The Ravens also won't allow the run game to really get going. 

On the other side, the Pats defense is no more or less awful than it was one week ago. Being able to stop Tim Tebow is nothing like stopping the Ravens, even if the Ravens themselves aren't a great offense. That said, they are better than what they showed against the Texans. Their offense ranked 13th in Football Outsiders' DVOA. While the Patriots defense ranked 30th. That seems to be a bigger mismatch than the Ravens #1 defense against the Patriots #3 offense (it should be noted that the only reason the Pats are #3 is that the Packers and Saints had historically good offenses, and Baltimore is one of the 'worst' #1 defenses that they've ever rated). Anyway, Ray Rice should get his, but the key is Flacco. Flacco has the weapons. He also has two good tight ends (of course, none of them is as good as Gronk, but at least my opinion is Ed Dickson is at least Hernandez), and one receiver who in their meeting last year the Patriots couldn't really stop  (Boldin). Torrey Smith is still there, and there was even a Lee Evans sighting last week. The real issue is pass protection. The Ravens were awful at it on Sunday. The Texans pass rush is better than the Patriots, but they will have to block a lot better to have a chance. Personally, I think they will.

Overall, I'm going with my heart. My head says New England. That Baltimore's defense is merely very good and not great, and that the Patriots offense is great (but not other-worldly). Then, I look to one year ago. The Patriots were the #1 seed. The Jets were a very good but not great defense (by any measure, the 2010 Jets defensively were worse than the 2009 Jets defense). The Patriots offense actually had a better year in 2010 than 2011. That Patriots team was stopped. They scored 14 points (added 7 in garbage time). They slowed them down. It is possible. Anything is possible. This is the NFL for fucks sake. Also, the Ravens are too good to be underdogs by this many points. They've only lost one game this year by more than 7, and although that was a thrashing given out by the Chargers, the Chargers attacked the Ravens deep, which is something New England does not really do. Give me the defense. Give me the team with two lock Hall of Famers, over the team with One. 

 

Ravens 27 (BAL)  Patriots 24

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

I really think this will be a great title game. That is why I hope even more that the Ravens win the AFC game, because then I can properly take in what should be a great football game. The rain could temper it a bit, but it should be what football is. Two teams that have solid defenses, stocked with players that can whip blockers one-on-one (Justin and Aldon Smith, JPP, Osi and Tuck). They feature offenses that have true identities, with the short passing and running game for the 49ers and the deep passing of the Giants. They have two coaches that are fun to watch on game-day (the stares of Coughlin, the focused exuberance of Harbaugh). The game is being played in one of the three cathedrals of the sport, in that Candlestick is one of the few remaining stadiums that have been host to memorable games and plays along with Lambeau Field and that mountain in Oakland (Oakland gets the nod, since original Soldier Field, Giants Stadium, RFK, Texas Stadium and Three Rivers are all gone, as well as the Orange Bowl). It should be a hell of a ride.

There are a lot of odd similarities to this and the 1981 NFC Title Game between the Cowboys and 49ers. Both 49ers teams entered with a 13-3 record. Both teams had the NFL's #2 scoring defense, and similar scoring numbers (357-250 in 1981, 380-259 this year). Obviously, one QB being Montana and the other being Alex Smith seems like a super stretch of a comparison, but they had similar years (Montana: 311/488 (63.7%) for 3,565 yds (11.5/7.3 ypc/ypa) and 19 TDs, 12 INTs and a passer rating of 88.4; Smith: 273/445 (61.3%) for 3,144 yds (11.5/7.1) and 17 TDs, 5 INTs and a passer rating of 90.7). Both were coached by ex-Stanford coaches (Walsh, Harbuagh) and both faced a recent NFC Champion (Cowboys were NFC Champs in 1978, Giants in 2007). Anyway, I have no idea if the 49ers are about to start another dynasty in two weeks, but there are some interesting parallels. Anyway, let's get to the actual games.

The Giants offense has been on a roll with their passing game, featuring long YAC plays that lead to quick TDs that jump-started the team. Their offense was better against GB, but that is no surprise given how bad the GB defense was. The 49ers, in my opinion, are not a great matchup for the Giants on offense. The 49ers are as sure tackling as any team in the NFL and should limit YAC. The 49ers can get pressure with four, and will definitely pressure Manning more than the Packers did. The 49ers are the best 3rd down defense in the NFL. The 49ers also should erase any potential run game, which could be crucial in a wet, sloppy Candlestick Park. I don't see the Giants approaching 37 points this week, unless they get some turnovers from the 49ers.

Therein lies the issue for the Giants. Including last week's game, the 49ers have a turnover ratio of 43/11. That is scary. All week people claimed how many turnovers the 49ers force and how few they give up, and they went out and did just that to the Saints. If the 49ers can force a couple more this week, and win field position (which they almost always do), they should be tough to beat. That is basically the formula they used to beat the Giants earlier in the year. The 49ers offense really runs through Vernon Davis. Crabtree was awful against the Saints, and the other receivers (Kyle Williams, and whoever else) didn't do much. They might need to, or moreso, be able to, this week. The Giants, as per Football Outsiders, are average defending #1, #2 WRs and TEs, but are really bad against other WRs. Another little matchup is that the 49ers o-line has been good against a 4-man rush. Now, I don't know if anyone can be good against the Giants 4-man rush right now, but the 49ers are a lot more susceptible to the blitz, as shown by their performances against blitzes brought by the Saints last week, and the Cardinals and Ravens earlier in the year (their only two losses since September). The Giants might want to think about bringing the blitz a little more. Gore should be nuetralized, because when the Giants front is playing like it is, running is never really a successful option.

I have no idea where to go with this game. A lot of what I wrote would make it seem that I am leaning towards the 49ers, and that is what my head says. My head thinks that this team is special. Their defense, especially at home, is awesome. They have the same special sauce as that 49ers team 30 years earlier. They really do. But then again, the Giants have that look of that special team of four years. The only difference is instead of scraping by, this Giants team has dominated, winning their first two playoff games with a combined score of 54-29, including thoroughly dismantling the NFCs top seed, a lot like last year, when the Packers thoroughly dismantled the NFCs top seed. I'm flipping a coin basically here. I just think that at the end of the day, the 49ers defense is just a little too solid. In the regular season, the Giants showed they could move it at ease against the bad defenses (Packers, Patriots) but struggled in some games against better defenses (Washington, Philly #2, and the 49ers). I also don't like Eli in the elements. He's conquered the cold, but wind is still an enemy. Give me the 49ers. One last parallel between this 49ers team and that one from 1981. The record of the 1980 49ers: 10-6 - the exact same as the 2010 49ers. Candlestick is an eerie place.

Giants 17  49ers 23 (SF)

NFL Playoff Trends

I've long held the belief that the time you play often impacts the game. I've always felt that night games are generally won by the home team at a higher rate than normal daily games, and even the 4pm games are won more than the 1pm games. I looked back at all the playoff games since realignment to see if these predisposed ideas were in fact true, and what other trends I could pick up. I picked to start in 2002 since that was the first year of the NFL that exists today. 32 teams. 8 divisions. 2 wild cards. It does leave out one year of night games (the NFL started 8:00 Saturday Night playoff games in 2001, with the Raiders beating the Jets, and then losing to the Patriots in the Tuck Rule game), but captures the NFL in a time when upsets were happening at a rate that is significantly higher than what had occured before. Hell, four of the last five #1 seeds in the NFC have lost. It spans the Giants beating the Cowboys in 2007, to the Giants beating the Packers in 2011, with the Giants themselves falling victims to it in-between. Anyway, this also led to an NFL where the #5 seed was often stronger than the #4 seed by record. In the 32 team NFL no wild card team could have a home game (unless there was a #5 vs #6 Title Game), so it also increased the amount of road favorites. Anyway, before we break it down, here is a handy little pictorial that shows the findings:

So, the first three charts are just the playoff results each weekend, by year on one axis and by time on the other. I realize the Super Bowl does have a designated home, but that designation really has no impact, so the numbers on the fourth chart are just for the firs three rounds of the playoffs. The corresponding number is just how many games ended that way out of how many there were with that team favored.

Overall, some immediate takeaways (I'll put the disclaimer right now that everything that I can infer or take out of this analysis is far from completely certain since this is still a small sample size):

• There have been 14 road favorites, and the occurrence is only increasing. From 2002-2007 there were just four road favorites, and they all won. In the past four years, a road team has been favored 10 times, and is just 4-6. So either home underdogs are now taking this as a sign of respect, or Vegas feels that the public is buying into over-hyping "hot" away teams. It comes as no surprise that only one of these road favorites has come in the divisional round, since the team off of the bye is almost always the better team, but it did happen this year. 
• Home teams are better on Saturday than on Sunday. Home teams overall are 27-13 on Saturday (including 14-6 for the late Saturday games), while just 21-19 on Sunday. The one affecting variable is that there have been more road favorites on Sunday, but even if we restrict it to home favorites, Saturday teams are 24-11, while Sunday teams are 19-15.
• It may seem that teams off of byes are more vulnerable than ever, but actually, 2nd round upsets have calmed down in the past three years. There was a ridiculous stretch from 2005-2008 where home teams (all favored) went 7-9 straight up and 4-12 ATS. This was definitely a case of lines just being too high for home teams. 
• Furthermore, the league went 13 straight divisional games with just one cover. Starting with the Steelers upset of the Colts in 2005, and ending with the Eagles upset of the Giants in 2008, there was just one cover, and 9 home teams lost outright.
• I used to always think that the 1pm game had the largest chance of an upset, because crowds and teams are usually lethargic at 1pm, and get progressively more amped (as well as progressively drunker, as far as fans are concerned) throughout the day. However, it looks like the real jinx is just playing on Sunday. There have been 10 wins by road teams since 2002 for the Sunday 4pm game (2 by road favorites), and 9 by road teams at 1pm (2 by road favorites). The 4pm is really kryptonite for home teams, as in the past 16 playoff games at 4pm on Sunday, the home team is just 6-10 (4-8 as a home favorite), while this game has given us a road upset in six of the past seven divisional rounds.
• That 6 of the past 7 divisional round 4pm Sunday game upset stretch might truly be the most unbelievable stat in this process I have come across (other than maybe the fact that only one road favorite has won and not covered). Other time slots had odd stretches, such as 3 straight road wins in the Saturday 4pm Wild Card game from 2003-2005, or the four straight road wins in the Sunday 1pm Wild Card game from 2007-2010, but those were both effected by road favorites. This was six out of seven home favorites off of a bye going down.
• From 1997-2006 one of the two home teams on Championship Sunday went down ('97 - both, '98 - Vikings, '99 - Jags, '00 - Raiders, '01 - Steelers, '02 - Eagles, '03 - Eagles, '04 - Steelers, '05 - Broncos). Since then, the home teams have swept three of the past five years. Championship Games have the best home winning percentage (12/6 vs. 22/18 and 25/15) and favorite cover percentage (11/7 vs. 19/21 and 16/24).

Anyway, peruse the thing at your will.


Something coming tomorrow!