Before the picks, a quick look back to see where my "10 predictions for the second half" are:
1.) Miami or Carolina makes a serious Wild-Card chase. Well, right, I guess. In my mind, I thought it would be the Panthers, since they have an easier schedule. I was wrong there, but I was right on. In any way, they are both tough outs, and Carolina is still spoiler material.
2.) Pittsburgh goes on a huge run that makes them everyones' "Team you don't want to play". I was imagining the run start in the second half. I still think it starts now, and I still think they garner the "You don't want to play this team" vote, but so far, I've gotten it wrong.
3.) Cowboys fold late and Giants take their spot. This one can't be accurately evaluated yet, but considering that the Giants just beat Dallas, and Dallas' remaining schedule is hell, I think I'm on the right track here.
4.) Both Indianapolis and New Orleans lose. Now, this could still be true, but I said that New Orleans would lose this week, and Indianapolis to Houston in Week 12. Both are (will be) wrong, so I won't take credit for something that could still potentially be right.
5.) Regardless of that weeks Bengals @ Steelers game, the Bengals would make the playoffs. Right on. They even won that game to boot. They are playoff bound.
6.) Regardless of the Pats @ Colts game, the Colts would have home-field. Can safely say I got that right. It seems like ages ago 4th and 2 happened, and home-field was an issue.
7.) Passing Numbers decrease and go to usual standards. Passing Yardage hasn't decreased yet, but touchdowns have. I still say that with players sitting and weather, it kind of lessens, but we are still looking at a record number of QBs at the 4,000 yard mark.
8.) 4 teams go 3-13 or worse. There are currently six teams with three of fewer wins, with four under three. Can't see three of those teams ending up with four wins. We are looking at a historically large amount of awful teams.
9.) Minnesota @ Arizona decides the 2 seed. I still feel good. Arizona has a much easier schedule here on out. They should run the table. Couple that with two Vikings losses, and I am Nostradamus.
10.) Colts and Saints both make Super Bowl. I still hope to God it happens. It will be one fun game, and will make up for Rex Grossman and those Bears ruining that matchup from happening in 2006.
Now on to the Picks!!!
I'm going all-out now. It is time. Now that fantasy playoffs are upon, I'm entering picking playoffs (which is strange, since I'll certainy be picking the playoffs). Anyway, I am going to look under every crevice for information to help me. Scour injury reports, and gloss over forecasts. Seriously. I have challenged myself: 66.6% of the picks right for the last 4 weeks. It's on, Me!!
Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cleveland
It says alot about a team when they are hosting a team that is on a four-game losing streak and is giving 10 points. But that is just where the Mangini's are at. The forecast is for high teens and light snow at times (I wasn't kidding. Forecasts. Yeah, it's happening). This really nuetralizes the advantage that Cleveland was due, as the team hosting the Thursday Night Game is undefeated (note: this does not include games that are inexplicably played under Canadian Domes). Also, it limits the already limited offense that is helmed by Brady "I wish the fat goon Weis still coached me, and I actually was good enough to bang the Notre Dame co-eds. Now I'm stuck with the Dawg Pound as sources of poon" Quinn. The problem in Pittsburgh has not been the offense, and even with Ward likely out, they should be able to run on, and throw on, that Browns defense at will. On the other hand, look for the Pittsburgh to retain some of its swagger against that practice-squad of a unit passing as the Browns offense. However, I can't get around this being Cleveland's only chace to do something on a national stage (with that horrendous MNF appearance that every Cleveland fan got permanently deleted from memory). They keep it close, but their inability to move the ball finally kills them.
Steelers 20 Cleveland 14 (CLE)
Denver @ Indianapolis (-7)
Surprising to not see a media groundswell behind the Broncos this week, like there was a week ago for the Titans. I guess the media might finally understand that the Colts are too good to lose these games at home against less than stellar competition. Now, this matchup is easy. Firstly, the Colts own the Broncos. When the Broncos were a good team, much resembling their current one, from 2003-2006, they played each other three times in meaningful games (twice they played late season when the Colts were resting). The scores: IND 41 DEN 10; IND 49 DEN 24; IND 34 DEN 31. The close one was in Mile High. That was at a time where the Broncos had given up six touchdowns in six games. The Colts drilled them on offense. However, the real reason why I see the Colts rolling is that this is the last truly meaningful game they will play until the playoffs. A Colts win here and they clinch home field. A win hear and the get the all-time regular season win streak that the Pats currently own, and knowing the Colts as I do, they will want that record (a want enhanced by the Pats currently holding it). Now, I do not expect the Colts to sit anyone against the Jaguars, but the same motivation won't be there. This is their last chance to impress before the Divisional round. Also, at 8-4, the Broncos don't truly need this game. Just beating Oakland and KC, both in Denver, is good enough for a Wild Card. It's really not that hard.
Broncos 13 Colts 34 (IND)
New York (a) (-3) @ Tampa Bay
If these were the 2008 Mangini/Favre Jets they lose this game, just like they did when they controlled their own destiny in the AFC East last year and laid eggs in Frisco and Seattle. However, these are the Rex Jets, and they will drum Josh Freeman, whose confidence was at the least bombed by successive batallions of fighter planes last Sunday with his 5-pick game (A Sanchize, as it were). Also, even with the forever oblivious Morris at the helm, they cannot dare fall ahead in the "Race for Ndamokong Suh". He's the next Warren Sapp, and he will look good in Pewter.
Jets 27 Buccaneers 17
Buffalo @ Kansas City (PK)
This is a diffucult game to decide. There is no weather forecasted (not like it would have effected the Bills anyway, due to their being from the second coldest, loneliest place on earth. The first being wherever the Hell Purdue is, Indiana; Ashwath, good thinking not going to Miami, where it is sunny and people drink like fish, and can eat things like fish, well done). Kansas City is not as bad as they showed the last two weeks (because other than Cleveland, and Florida in that SEC Title Game, no one is). However, there are rumblings that Haley is losing that team, and the Cassel/Croyle crapitition is effecting the locker room. Contrast that with the weird case of Terrell Owens not effecting that locker room. It's strange. Fitzpatrick is using that Harvard education well, by realizing he has two deep threats to his disposal and actually throwing to them. A theory lost on Trent Edwards due to physical limitations and JP Losman due to mental limitations. Anyway, Fewell Fury, '09! (Note to Buffalo, please don't make that your slogan for the last four games). It's sad that I am confident picking against the Chiefs in Arrowhead against a 4-8 team led by my 31st ranked head coach, however such is life.
Bills 24 Chiefs 20 (BUF)
Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
Green Bay seems to be too bandwagony right now. They have rolled off four straight since that loss to the creamsicles. Their defense is playing inspired. A hot Green Bay against a Chicago team who managed to look like dung against the Rams - how is this line not higher. Makes me think that Vegas knows something. I won't bother checking the forecast, since it is irrelevant, since Green Bay is colder than Chicago. It seems to obvious to foresee Jay Cutler have a Sanchize game, and Rodgers cut up that injured defense. This line should be a touchdown. That's why I'm leaning towards Chicago. It puts a dent into the playoff picture, it brings up the Rodgers is not Favre creation (which should be put to rest, since their numbers are identical with Favre having a better team around him), and finally gives Cutler-mania some legs to actually begin. I will feel like a fool come Sunday afternoon when Cutler throws his nth pick-six, and Green Bay is romping 27-6 at half-time, but it just seems way too obvious.
Packers 17 Bears 24 (CHI)
New Orleans (-10) @ Atlanta
This seems obvious also, because it is. Even if Matt Ryan were playing, I would pick the Saints. The Saints are on a mission. They want 16-0, and they beat there Miami 1985 game (the game where you are undefeated and everything goes wrong, also known as the Baltimore-New England 2007 game). They are in the clear. They want blood, and the easiest way to gear up for probably their only tough game left next week against Dallas is to drum this Falcons team. Even if Turner plays, it won't be at full rest, and unless Chris Redman started an HGH cycle midweek (always a possibility in sports in 2009), it shouldn't be close. Again, the Saints want this too much to throw it away here.
Saints 38 Falcons 20 (NO)
Detroit @ Baltimore (-13.5)
Interesting line favoring a team that looked like crap by that much. Hard to fathom that the Lions are that bad, especially with a Stafford-to-Megatron sighting last week. Those are about as common as Tiger doing his wife anymore, but they are fun (I'm guessing Tiger doing his wife isn't actually fun for either party anymore, but I had to give a timely analogy). Baltimore can be beaten deep, and Ed Reed is still questionable. However, with the whole world being 6-6 in the AFC, and the biggest tease since those godaddy.com commercials in Jacksonville the only thing between them and a playoff spot, they know that a good month of football, and they are in. It's in their hands. They need a statement win, because it hasn't been pretty, what with the escape against Dennis Dixon and the drubbing they took in Lambeau. They need to lay a team to the woodshed, and Baltimore has shown the ability to do that (against Cleveland and KC early). It happens.
Lions 14 Ravens 30 (BAL)
Miami @ Jacksonville (-3)
It's our paper tigers again. They are not good in any conceivable way, apart from Maurice Jones-Drew. They have been outscored by 48 points, which is ridiculous for a team that is 7-5. That is the scoring differential of a 5-7 team, which is what they truly are. Miami, on the other hand, is a ballsy team, that doesn't beat itself. Teams that beat themselves are all that Jacksonville can handle right now. Well, teams that beat themselves and the St. Louis/Kansas City combo. Miami does not do that, unless they are playing New Orleans. Miami impressed me to no end last week, winning a game without any help from the holy wildcat. That was impressive, and I finally feel vindicated for regarding Chad Henne so highly on my QB Rankings that I did back in like Week 7. They also are among that 6-6 muck, but they also have the advantage of possibly winning that division (something these self-same Dolphins can greatly aid in two weeks up in Foxboro). They need this game, and outside of true trap games, that is usually what wins out late.
Dolphins 27 Jaguars 23 (MIA)
Carolina @ New England (-13.5)
This is just getting insane. Really, a team that has dropped two in a row is favored by 13.5 against a team that is not among that bottom tier. This is insane. To me the Patriots are essentially a slightly worse form of the 2002-2004 Colts. Great QB, great WR's, nothing else. Also, this is great support for the Manning side of the Brady/Manning argument. Brady is finally on a team resembling what Manning had in 2003-2004. Little defense when it mattered, and a good offense. I'll say Manning was a little more impressive in those years. Now, we are hearing that Brady has cracked ribs to go along with the finger (which explains his mysterious foray into the locker-room after the first touchdown to Moss). The team is in disarray, what with players being sent home midweek and Moss acting like Minnesota Moss. Plus, that defense really is awful. Of course, the media will still call Belichick the best drafter in the league when he has failed to replenish that team with his recent drafts. Forecast calls for clear skies, but winds up to 15. That's not a huge number, but when the QB is ailing physically, that is enough to weaken him by about 10%. Couple that with the Williams/Stewart combo, and I think that the Panthers cover. Not win, but cover. If the Panthers win, honestly, Belichick should be fired on the spot.
Panthers 16 Patriots 24 (CAR)
Seattle @ Houston (-6.5)
It's now time for Houston to start their yearly December run. It really is. They still have an outside shot at the playoffs if they win out (not really, but anything could happen), as the sixth spot will likely be a 9-7 team. Seattle really hasn't played well outside of Qwest, and the Texans have played better at Reliant. Schaub and Johnson should torch this secondary, and now that they have the Jaguars-sized tease that is Steve "Let me personally kill millions of fantasy teams this year, just for shits and giggles" Slaton on IR, I think they will improve. Not much to say here, except for this is a meaningless game, which is a surprise to August me, as I thought both teams were playoff bound.
Seahawks 17 Texans 34 (HOU)
Cincinnatti @ Minnesota (-6.5)
Cincinnatti were large underdogs in both Baltimore games, both Pittsburgh games and the Packers game in Week 2 in Lambeau (their forgotten big game). They won each and every single one of those games. They only lost on two flukes (the Stokley week 1 miracle, two fourth-quarter fumbles to the Raiders) and to Houston on Houston's best day all year (it happens). They are a solid team, with the best defense in the NFL this year (I am sure of that fact). They have two cover corners who can shut down Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin or Berrian. They have fast LBs and an underrated nameless D-Line (Fanene Power!!!!) that hasn't allowed a 100-yd rusher since Week 4. Also, I still have an outside shot at my "Cardinals steal the 2 seed" prediction coming through. Brett Favre showed us all something last week, that if you pressure him, which is made easier by the injury-riddled o-line of the Vikes, that he reverts to the old Favre. Cincinnatti's no-name d-line is great at generating pressure up the middle. Perfect situation for the Bengals to get another scalp, and the Favre-machine to take another hit.
Bengals 20 Vikings 14 (CIN)
St. Louis @ Tennessee (-13.5)
This column is starting to run at a Simmons-ian length. So, since there is no reason to spend any time on this game at all, let's do this one quickly. Tennessee is smarting after the Colts game. They are better in every conceivable way. They win, big. Vince Young and Johnson continue to get hyped to the Moon for beating bad teams.
Rams 14 Titans 34 (TEN)
Washington (-1) @ Oakland
How is a Washington team that just lost their "Super Bowl" (Fred Smoot's words, not mine), travelling cross country, to take on a team that is 2-1 with Gradkowski, a favorite. I am a Raider fan, and this year they have only won when we least expect it (like that Bengals game), and I expect it, which scares me. It really does. They should win this game easily. They should take Jim Zorn's sorry ass program and shoot them behind that joke of a stadium the Raiders play in. Commitment to getting better. That's all the Raider Nation is asking for, and that's all they are doing. Now, just get us Jake Locker.
Redskins 14 Raiders 24 (OAK)
San Diego @ Dallas (-3.5)
San Diego has won 15 straight December games. Dallas hasn't had a winning December since Bill Clinton actually had not had sex with that woman. So why do I think San Diego loses. Dallas is really good in that satirization of a stadium. Since their opening loss, they are undefeated there, and are playing great football (apart from the Redskins game, which was the Redskins other Championship game). Also, the Cowboys aren't going to go winless in December. That's not how they operate. They have to sucker the fans in first. Also, the Chargers are do to Rivers it up. They have built this winning streak on a bunch of lies, essentially and I think it all goes down in Dallas, where the crowd will be into it, and Romo shows why he is a top-10 QB (just to un-show it the next three games). This one is my only real gut pick, because everybody sane should pick the better Chargers team.
Chargers 20 Cowboys 24 (DAL)
Philadelphia @ New York (n) (-1)
Depending on what happens early, this is for the division lead. If the Cowboys lose, and the Giants win, all three are tied in an 8-5 quagmire. Manage a tri-NFC East teams we'll call it (please don't call it that). Philadelphia should have DeSean Jackson back, and even in victory the Giants weren't too impressive last week. However, this season is resembling 2006, in that the Saints and the Colts are your Super Bowl favorite, and the craziness in the NFC East. That year, the Giants started out 6-2. The Cowboys switched to Romo, and went on a 6-2 run. They had a game against the 2-13 Lions for the division and lost, and then the Eagles, who were 6-5 when Garcia took over for an injured McNabb, won the division. How does the division become crazy, a Giants win. These two teams at 8-5. Dallas at 9-4 (if my pick goes right, and even more fun 8-5 if it doesn't), with a schedule with an assured loss in six days in the Superdome. It is probably irrelevant, as in my opinion teams 1-4 in the NFC Ultimate Rankings (aka, most likely to go to Super Bowl XLIV) reside outside the NFC East (NO, ARZ, MIN, GB), but it will be alot of fun.
Eagles 17 Giants 20 (ot) (NYG)
Arizona (-3.5) @ San Francisco
Arizona is on a roll (taking away the near win with a Leinart-led team). They are 5-1 on the road, with the only blemish being the forementioned Leinart-game. (There was some 99-yd drive I'm told, but I'm hazy on the details since the wails of happiness that protruded from Dan White's mouth drowned out the memory of said game.) Arizona is just better. San Francisco has lost whatever mental capability they had to play good football. That was a terrible loss for a team that could still potentially have had division aspirations last week. That tells me that this team has checked out, a thing that coincided nicely with the checkin in of Crabtree. Funny how, without any fanfare, the Crabtree's could fall to the same record as the DHB's (Raiders) with a loss. It won't be as high-flying as the Niners can still play adequate defense to stop a hammering, but Arizona can play adequate defense to make Alex Smith cry into his tiny hands.
Cardinals 24 49ers 13 (ARZ)
Enjoy the Games.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
NFL Coach Rankings
I think I first alluded to this ranking about 20 posts ago, but got sidetracked in work, and hall-of-famers and decadium-list-mania. So, I'm finally pumping this out.
The guy is just over his head. He was thrust into a situation he was neither prepared nor qualified for. Can't fault him, and he seems like a nice enough guy, but his tenure leading the Buccaneers (a team that was 9-3 last year before Monte Kiffin announced he was leaving for U of Tennessee) has been an unmitigated trainwreck. He fired the offensive coordinator right before the season. He "relieved" his defensive coordinator of said coordinating duties a couple weeks ago. He has started multiple QB's named "Josh" and one a single game. Say what you want about the coach he replaced, but if Gruden were still coaching the team, a team with three average RBs and some playmakers on defense, they would be better than 1-11.
32.) Raheem Morris - TB
The guy is just over his head. He was thrust into a situation he was neither prepared nor qualified for. Can't fault him, and he seems like a nice enough guy, but his tenure leading the Buccaneers (a team that was 9-3 last year before Monte Kiffin announced he was leaving for U of Tennessee) has been an unmitigated trainwreck. He fired the offensive coordinator right before the season. He "relieved" his defensive coordinator of said coordinating duties a couple weeks ago. He has started multiple QB's named "Josh" and one a single game. Say what you want about the coach he replaced, but if Gruden were still coaching the team, a team with three average RBs and some playmakers on defense, they would be better than 1-11.
31.) Perry Fewell - BUF
It's sad for Raheem Morris that he cannot even beat out an interim coach, but Fewell has this team playing hard, and playing competitively, which is more than what can be said for the Buccaneers. He has qualifications as a defensive coordinator for the last four years, so he obviously had some ability to coach defense. It's not like he has a talent-laden team to compete with either. He has kept Terrell Owens quiet, and made one big decision, replacing the epitome of suck in Edwards with a living, breathing brainy QB JP Fitzpatrick, and it has worked. However, he probably has little chance of keeping that job.
30.) Mike Singletary - SF
He was supposed to be in the Ditka mold. A fiery, get in your face leader, with the personality and bravado to inspire. However, unlike Ditka, he came into the job with zero years as even a coordinator, and no real qualification except for his name as a hall-of-fame Linebacker. In his tenure, he has switched around QB's like he was playing roullette with them, had a mercurial relationship with his most talented player, caved to a diva wide receiver, and to cap it off, dropped his pants to "inspire" his team. I'm pretty sure that whatever Bill Walsh did to inspire his team did not include anything near the removing of trou and was much more successful. Also, he and his team were much balyhooed coming into the year, but are now 2-6 in their last eight games. He had little reputation to live up to, succeeding Mike Nolan and Dennis Erickson, but hasn't even cleared those names (actually, he's been better than Erickson, but then again, so has Raheem Morris).
29.) Eric Mangini - CLE
God only knows what made him so hirable that the Lerner family seemingly courted him like some beautiful Russian bride last offseason. Just days after his firing from the Jets (a talented team that he underachieved with in his final two years) he was signed up again. He is from the Belichick tree (a tree who has seen all but one sapling poisoned with its evil fruit) and is much like Belichick... Cleveland edition, as in the one under whose tenure the team left town to Baltimore. He is a tyrant, brooding over the sidelines, fining players 1,003 dollars for not paying for a 2.99$ water bottle, and having airtight security around his operation that resembles that of communist Russia. It is a long way from his Man-genius days, and I have to say that he will probably never get those days back. His time in Cleveland could easily be up after one year, and I don't see any other owner stupid enough to give him a head job #3.
28.) Jim Zorn - WAS
Rounding out the bottom-5 is the man who is really just a figure head, as he was primarily there for his offensive acumen, and was stripped of his playcalling duties (duties that were later given quite comically to a man who was coerced out of his "calling bingo numbers at a local senior-center"). What is sadder is that the offense has been better of late. He is a terrible game manager, and has shoddy clock-management. It is also a mystery as to what he ever did to get the job, as his highest level of experience was being Seattle's QB coach. Not exactly a great job, one that inspires much confidence. What makes him stay at 28, in front of four others is that he is a supposed QB guru, and Jason Campbell has become a marginally good QB under his tutelage.
27.) Jim L. Mora - SEA
Apparently, he is "Jim L. Mora" and not "Jim Mora Jr." which I remember roughly 99.9999% of the populus calling him when he was Atlanta's leading man. He is supposedly a defensive-back guru. At least he had some coordinating experience before he got the first head job. Now, it strikes me weird that he was fired from a place where he was arguably its franchises second-most succesful coach, and now that he is nearly done completing his first year at the helm of the Seahawks, I know why. He's just a bad coach. He came to Seattle to help that defense, at it has regressed each year, reaching disastrous lows last year. Sure he inherited a team that was 4-12, but it really was a team that just had a freak injury year (one that saw roughly 123,434.67 o-lineman and wide receivers hurt last year), and was a 5-time playoff participant before that (a run that was only equaled by New England and Indianapolis). Mike Holmgren gave him a 3/4th full cupboard and he has royally screwed it up. Only his success in Atlanta, which is probably only due to having a good GM and having the NFC at a historic low in terms of quality, saving him from that bottom-5.
Apparently, he is "Jim L. Mora" and not "Jim Mora Jr." which I remember roughly 99.9999% of the populus calling him when he was Atlanta's leading man. He is supposedly a defensive-back guru. At least he had some coordinating experience before he got the first head job. Now, it strikes me weird that he was fired from a place where he was arguably its franchises second-most succesful coach, and now that he is nearly done completing his first year at the helm of the Seahawks, I know why. He's just a bad coach. He came to Seattle to help that defense, at it has regressed each year, reaching disastrous lows last year. Sure he inherited a team that was 4-12, but it really was a team that just had a freak injury year (one that saw roughly 123,434.67 o-lineman and wide receivers hurt last year), and was a 5-time playoff participant before that (a run that was only equaled by New England and Indianapolis). Mike Holmgren gave him a 3/4th full cupboard and he has royally screwed it up. Only his success in Atlanta, which is probably only due to having a good GM and having the NFC at a historic low in terms of quality, saving him from that bottom-5. 26.) Norv Turner - SD
How this man has been hired by three different teams as a head coach is beyond me. How he got another job, let alone the job of running a Ferrari of an NFL roster, after that disastrous two year run in Oakland makes it even more surprising. The man is a great offensive mind, and an even better offensive coordinator, but when of the great bad coaches in league history. Sure, he has had success in San Diego, but only the people behind him on the list would not have. He inherited a 14-2 team, a team universally lauded as the "most talented in football". Now, whether it is the most talented or not is debatable, but it is easily in the top-5 of well-run organizations in the NFL. He has done nothing, save for two wins over Indianapolis (damn, him) to show that he has in any way done a good job. His team still lays down to quality opponents, and is just awful in close games (again, except when playing Indy in the playoffs). His clock management borders on terrible and his propensity for calling bad challenges and timeouts is even worse, which is impossible to fathom. His teams always get off to slow starts, and this year is no different, except he has feasted on the KC's and Oakland's of the world.
25.) Tom Cable - OAK
I'll give him this: he actually wants to be the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, which is saying alot. I'll leave the domestic violence out of this. He at least gets this team motivated when they play good teams, but his inability to get the team motivated, or at all disciplined, against the bad teams is reprehensible. Of course Al Davis had alot of the say, but word is that he was also against the switch from JaMarcus to Gradkowski for a long, long time. The shame is that this is a .500 roster at every other position, and they realized that 9 weeks to late. He also has a very shoddy history as a playcaller, and has never held a coordinator position. He has the ability to rise, if he and Oakland continue the upward trend. However, I just can't put him any higher without opening myself up to Homerism.
24.) Todd Haley - KC
He was a good coordinator in Arizona. However, he is a stark lunatic. An absolute red-ass madman. He fought with T.O. in Dallas (which I guess is the pussy way that Greg Knapp handled T.O., which was basically Knapp calling TO "daddy" and bending over), fought with Boldin on the sidelines, with a vein that was throbbing so violently it looked like it was doing a choreographed dance. Now, he fights with Larry Johnson (understandable, since Johnson deserves a nice slap over the head), Matt Cassell and probably ever single one of those no-name Chiefs (Lance Long... Coach Haley wants to see you). His team has failed to even show up the last two weeks. What helps him not enter the "Mangini" zone is the fact that he has good experience and he is one of the Parcells guys. Any descendent of the Parcells tree (but not a sub-branch of the Belichick tree) is pigeon-holed for success (just look later down this list), so there is still hope.
23.) Jack Del Rio - JAX
It is admirable that this team is 7-5, but really they have been outscored by 48 points, so that is all smoke in mirrors. He, surprisingly, has had an 11-5 year and a 12-4 year, but really I cannot put him any higher. His clock-management is atrocious. His player relationships are atrocious. He famously disallowed David Garrard to do his weekly radio show (Go To Your Room, David!!) and even fought with Marcus Stroud over playing time (when Stroud was one of his two best players). He get bonus points for picking Garrard over Leftwich, but that's about it. His team has not really underachieved, but also never really taken off after that all-too promising 11-5 year. He is not a bad coach in many ways, but lacks that leadership and organizational ability to bring this team to the next level.
22.) Wade Phillips -DAL
It's funny that both him, and the next guy, are coaches who are continually panned and prodded over the medias as awful head-coaches, yet their w-l records are quite good. In fact, Phillips is a .588 winning% guy for his career. He has done a good job in Dallas (when you see that his team is violently overrated to a near Chargerian level, it is a good job), but his player and time management is awful. He runs that team like some day-spa manager, letting his star QB take trips in season to Cabo and Las Vegas. I'm all allowing players freedom, but don't let them go to Sin City, especially on a week that is not a bye week. His clock management and time management is definitely in the lower half of the league. Above this all, he is quite a defensive mind (the real key to making Shawne Merriman and Demarcus Ware millions upon millions - well, actually, for Merriman it was Phillips and Steriods), and a good coach when all is going well. However, coaches are viewed for what they do in crunch time, and he is a pretty 4-7 in December/Playoff games, which is not very good. He was absolutely outcoached to the n-th degree in his two playoff games (against the Giants, and that Week 17 game last year, which was essentially a winner take sixth seed playoff game).
21.) Brad Childress - MIN
He is also comfortably aboce .500 in his career (34-26), but again his abhorrent clock and game management mar all the relative success his team has had in the regular season. He will have another chance to prove his playoff mettle this January, likely with a team that is bye-worthy, and I will not be shocked to see him fail. He was a good offensive mind in Philadelphia, where he turned an offense that featured Duce Staley, James Trash and Todd Pinkston as skill players to a top-10 ranking year after year, but that has not translated in Minnesota until this year. Really, if he couldn't succeed with a team loaded with talent, he should be fired. I'll give him more credit than he is generally given, as he has kept the team competitive every year of his tenure, and now turned them into one of the better teams, but really his ability to call absolutely inane timeouts and challenge plays that are not remotely debatable is grating, and more importantly a key sign that he is vastly outmatched in critical situations.
20.) Gary Kubiak - HOU
Like Childress, his teams have no punch in close games and in crunch time. Unlike Childress, and what will make me put him ahead of Childress, is that he is not an avid challenger of undebatable plays and a serial timeout-waster. Kubiak is actually a good game-manager, and an astute and smart playcaller. It is not entirely his fault that he is gifted with a turnover-prone team. It is partly his fault that his team folds in close games. He reminds me alot of the early-Green Bay Holmgren tenure, a coach who is a cousin (in coaching-tree terms) or more precisely a cousin-once-removed of Kubiak's. Holmgren went 6-10 in his first season, then had three straight 9-7 seasons marred with many losses in close games. Now, Kubiak is probably looking at three straight 8-8 seasons, but they are too marred with incredible losses in close games, including two failed goal-line scores late in games. The next four years for Holmgren in Green Bay: 11-5, 13-3, 13-3, 11-5. I'm just saying that I agree with owner Bob McNair that Kubiak gives the Texans the best shot to win next year. Now, Matt Schuab might not, but Kubiak does.
19.) Steve Spagnuolo - STL
Here by reputation, and a slight man-love for said coach. He was great for the Giants. The G-Men still have not quite recovered defensively under Bill Sheridan. His players have been playing hard for him. The last regime left the cupboard barer than the deserts of Algeria, and he has that makeshift defense at least competing with teams, which is more than what can be said for the Linehan era. He will be a good coach, just maybe not in St. Louis. Actually, no need for negatism, he will be a good coach anywhere. His game management has been great, he just hasn't had many opportunities to show it. He is a defensive whiz (just cue up the tape of a certain Super Bowl XLII as proof). He will be a good one.
18.) Lovie Smith - CHI
His time may be running out. In fact, the Dungy tree is not all that impressive (except for Tomlin), but he had his times. From 2005-2006 there was no better defense in the NFL. Sadly, this is 2009. It all started when he was in charge of the decision to make Hester a wide-reciever. His game-management has come under fire. The thing that made him one of the hotter head-coach candidates all those years ago, his defensive prowess, has even been lacking. He is the one calling the Bears defense, and his defense is not instilling fear into any singular opponent. I will be really surprised to see him back next year, especially with Cutler loverboy Shanahan sitting out there available. He's not a bad coach, just not a particularily good one anymore. He has just run his course in Chicago.
17.) Jim Schwartz - DET
This is probably my most out-on-a-limb guy here, but I fully support his coaching, and furthermore my decision to place him as the top guy in the bottom half. And this is not only due to his being a reader of Football Outsiders, the leader in the statisticalization of Football. He did yoeman's work with that Tennessee defense for years and years, turning a ragtag bunch into a defensive power from 2006-2008. He has now turned a historically bad Lions defense (let alone a historically bad Lions team) into a competitive team with a future. Matt Stafford has already spoken out on his love for him, as has James Farrior, who knows a thing or two about playing with good coaches. He is a coach on the cutting edge, statistically, of football, a good defensive mind, and like the gray-goateed man two spots behind him, will show it all in the coming years.
16.) Josh McDaniels - DEN
Honestly, it pains me to put him here. He is finally showing that a disciple of Belichick can be neither a scumbag (Weis) nor a ludicrously overmatched head coach (Crennel) nor both (Mangini). At least BB has one good apple out there. He was the offensive architect of one of the best offenses in NFL history. Now, he was awful in coaching said offense when defenses finally learned how to play it, but he was still good. He was great in coaching up Cassel last year. He has been amazing in motivating this Denver team and now re-motivating this team again. For all the credit that Mike Nolan is deservedly getting for making that defense better, he should get as much credit for turning the Kyle Orton machine into a decent offense, one that will be playoff bound. Considering most people had him as a total bust when he shipped Cutler out of town (including me, who predicted the Broncos would go 2-14) are now shaking their heads. I have to give him credit. However, I can't give a first year a spot any higher (unless that first year happens to have never given a losing press-conference in his NFL coaching tenure).
15.) Mike Smith - ATL
Quality guy, quality coach, nothing special. He was integral in turning that team around last year, and was a deserving coach of the year winner, but it really was smoke and mirrors. He is great when his team is playing the Lions and Bucs of the world, but just hasn't shown that he can lead a team into a battle against a big gun and come out victorious. Now, he will probably learn how to do just that in the coming years, especially with having the benefit of saddling up next to Matt Ryan, but as of right now, he's the Juno of coaches: a good one, but one that is at the end of the day a step-below the leaders of the pack.
14.) Rex Ryan - NYJ
He cannot fail. This team that he inherited is a .500 bunch, and he is a .500 team. In fact, considering their QB turns it over more than anyone whose name doesn't rhyme with "Shmutler" I'm amazed he's got them at .500. He spoiled all of New York with that 3-0 start, and probably granted him immunity for three years with that defensive clinic he threw on New England. However, I point to their game against New Orleans to show his ability as a coach. Here are the yardage totals of the Saints home games: 515, 493, 437, 414, 480 and 343. If you couldn't guess, and I'm assuming you could since why else would I cite that statistic, the 343 was against the Jets. That was impressive. No one has contained the Saints that well, and no one came close in the Superdome. I thought he wouldn't be all that good, since the last two defensive coordinators of Baltimore weren't all that great (Mike Nolan and Marvin Lewis - more on Marvin later) at the onset as head coaches, and Nolan never became anything at all, but he has proved me wrong. Rex is an up-and-comer who will only improve as he learns to accept some role on the offensive side of the ball as well, something his lunatic father never did but he has already shown an openness to doing.
13.) Marvin Lewis - CIN
When you consider he coaches for a team who probably has the worst owner in the NFL (yes, worse than Al Davis in Oakland, because at least Davis was at one point not only a great owner, but arguably the best), his above .500 career record (55-52-1) at Cincy is quite a feat. He finally has a team that he built to play great defense, and they are the the best defense in the NFL. He has controlled the characters on his team, including Ochocinco, and apart from the year Carson Palmer got hurt, has always had at worst a mediocre team. Really, aside from last year, the worst the Bengals have been in his tenure is 7-9, which is stunning considering all the flak they have gotten over the years. Now, he is not a great one, and his time management and game management skill leave a bit to be desired, he earns my respect as the first man since Sam Wyche to do anything of note in Cincinnatti, and a guy who may very well lead a team to the Conference Title game this year.
12.) John Harbaugh - BAL
If I did this column when I originally planned, he probably winds up at least five spots higher. However, the last month or so has really made him lose alot of that luster. Sure, he was a great change for Baltimore and was an integral reason they came together around a rookie who was nothing special last year and made it one Ploamalu int-return from the Super Bowl. It is very easy to overlook the fact he inherited a very good team, one that was 13-3 just two years earlier and had one of the better personnel-men in the league running the operation. Now, he will probably climb the list in the years to come, and I think he is the best of the 2008 class of head coaches, but he's not as good right now as I thought a month ago. He also has an annoying habit of challenging calls that are not debatable. His game management has suddenly taken a downturn and it is unclear how much control of that veteran and boastful lockerroom he has. Overall, he is a good young coach, that, much like his QB, is going through a sophmore slump.
11.) Tony Sparano - MIA
I said Harbaugh is the best of the '08 class, and I do think that 5 years from now, he will be, but right now its Sparano. Except for his penchant to go for 2 at nonsensical moments, he is one of the better ones out there. He is a fiery leader, whose leaving Dallas for Miami has made Miami a 1-15 team to a slightly above average, and turned a 13-3 Dallas team, anchored by his o-line, into a above average one. The only thing that is keeping me from putting him in the top-10 is that I think he doesn't have that thing that makes him into a Super Bowl caliber coach. I think he can coach up a young team, he can coach a team to play smart, mistake-free football. However, much like Parcells' Jets and Cowboys tenure, he can't deliver when it truly counts and there is a peak that he can reach, and that peak is below "Super Bowl Champion". Now, he will consistently keep this Miami team playing above their head and competitive football, and after the Nick Saban/Dave Wannstedt debaccles that is all Fins fans can ask for, but whether he takes that Belichick-ian step is a mystery.
10.) John Fox - CAR
He is the poor man's Jeff Fisher. His bad years are mediocre, his great years are great. He inherited a 1-15 team, and within two years they were one Vinatieri field goal away from overtime in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Two years later, they were in the Conference Title Game. He has little personnel input, compared to alot of other high-profile coaches (Belichick being the best example), so he can't really get too much more out of a team that is talented, but not really Super Bowl talented. If we did this before the Divisional playoff last year, he's in the top-5. Even if they lose that game close, he's in the top-5, but that egg has to drop him. His loyalty to Jake Delhomme also hurts him, but really if he's fired at the end of the year (a real possibility, with Bill Cowher who seems to be having an affair with the Carolinas) he's probably hired by the end of the week. He's a coach who will get the most out of teams, keep them motivated. The players love him, the owner loves him. The fans probably less so, but really no coach is safe from fans in that sense. Solid coach, solid guy, solid tenure in Carolina.
9.) Mike McCarthy - GB
Really, last year was an anomaly. That was a 9-7 team that Kubiak-ed its way to 6-10 dropping close game after close game. Take that year out of it, and he is 29-15. Include that year and he is 35-25. Still impressive, considering they have done major roster overhaul (remember the Na'ill Diggs defensive era and the Javon Walker hook-up??) and the changing of the guard from one deified QB to a vilified one. He showed balls sticking to his guns in the Favre-Rodgers debate, and its hard to say it hasn't worked, as Favre probably would have died with that o-line. He was a mysterious hire, after two really unspectacular years as the offensive coordinator of San Francisco, but four years later, he has been a good one. He is the third straight successful Mike in Green Bay (surprisingly, they are all in the same coaching tree, less surprisingly its Walsh's (I'll do a Walsh memorial column, and its gonna include more gushing than any Manning column I will ever do)), and the one who had immediate success. He was one game away from the Super Bowl in his second year, and my early (and I mean early, like 425 days early) Super Bowl XLV NFC pick is Green Bay.
8.) Jim Caldwell - IND
It might be ridiculous putting a first-year coach this high, but when he's 12-0 why not. Here are the list of head coaches that have been 12-0 at any time in their careers: Shula, Ditka, Shanahan, Dungy, Belichick, Payton, Caldwell. Other than Payton and Ditka, they are all or will be in the hall of fame (and Payton might by the time he's done). Before the year, when I was touting this Colts team as the team-to-beat in the NFL, I mercilessly compared Caldwell to George Seifert. Like Caldwell replacing Dungy, Seifert replaced Bill Walsh. Like the 2009 Colts, Seifert's first 49ers team, despite just winning a Super Bowl, was supposed to be on the down-side of their run. Seifert went 14-2 in his first year, won the Super Bowl, never got the credit he deserved, as many thought it was a new coach winning with Walsh's team. 14-2 and the Super Bowl are easily attainable, but even if he doesn't win the Super Bowl, it is impossible to say that Caldwell's rookie year has been anything short of a raving success. He has kept Dungy's primary tenet: high character, but put his own stamp on the team. He is George Seifert, exactly 20 years later. By the way, here are the records of Seifert's 49er teams: 14-2*, 14-2, 10-6, 14-2, 10-6, 13-3* 11-5, 12-4 (* = Super Bowl Champions). That should make any Colts fan happy.
7.) Andy Reid - PHI
He may waste timeouts, he may give away seconds like they are charity. He may have the game management skills that equate him to the NFL's version of Bernie Madoff, but the results are undeniable. The guy should be a hall-of-famer. He is probably about to have his 8th 10 win season this decade. He is 105-66 in his career. He has made the playoffs seven times, and probably will an eighth this year. Obviously, we all know of Andy Reid's inability to win the big one: 1-4 in NFC Championship Games and 0-1 in the Super Bowl, but his resume stacks up favorably to Bill Cowher's pre-2005. The most underrated stat is that he has never lost in his teams opening playoff game. The success of Belichick taints every other coach, but a playoff record or 10-7 is really good. I bet Cowher took about .0006% of the criticism Andy gets. Philly fans have never seen a run of success quite close to this, and considering Reid has more say in personnell than most coaches, it's in a large part due to him.
6.) Mike Tomlin - PIT
Again, he would have been number three or four if this was done when I planned to, but the four game losing streak, including following a press conference in which you declare that your team will "unleash Hell in December" by losing to Oakland at home, and you will lose a few spots. Not many though, because the guy has success written all over him. Say what you will, but the Steelers can choose coaches. Considering the Rooney's have never fired a coach, I'm going to guess he will make it past this year and continue to overcome the bit of a speed bump he is having this year. The guy was hyped up in his time as the Vikings coordinator, and deservedly so (those Vikings were historically good at run-defense), but he had the sense to keep Dick LeBeau. The most important thing a coach can do is operate the team with the goal of putting them in the best position to win, and it took guts to go against your defensive instincts (Tomlin is a Dungy Tampa-2 guy) and leave the Steelers as a 3-4. He did it, and it won them a Super Bowl. He is a star. He is the coolest guy in the room, and that allows the players to instantly relate. I am sure to a man, all 53 of those Steelers would run through the walls of Heinz Field for that guy, and after Bill Cowher was the only coach in most of their proffesional lives, for Tomlin to win over that locker room that quickly is amazing. The guy has a bright future.
5.) Ken Whisenhunt - ARZ
I just cannot justify putting him lower. He is 24-16 as a coach (I am discounting the team after it just gave up last year after winning the division). He has never been below .500 as coach of the ARIZONA CARDINALS. This is a franchise that hadn't hosted a playoff game in 61 years until last year. This is a franchise with the guy who perrenially pops up on the "worst owner" lists. This is a franchise that has done nothing since its move to the desert. He made them a winner. He has turned that fracnchise around. Coming from the Steeler family (and quite peeved after the adopted Tomlin and excommunicated him), Whiz has brought Steeler football to Arizona. Now, the air-show of Warner is not Steeler football, but the mentality of a winner is. He barely lost the Super Bowl, and promptly fired the D-Coordinator, brought in a LeBeau guy, and it is hard to say that they move could have worked any better. Sure, he has a hall-of-fame gunslinger, but he had the smarts to name him the starter over Leinart, the perceived saviour, before 2008. Every move he has made is the right one. As of today, the Cardinals are quite possibly one of the five best run franchises in football, and that is saying something. Even after Warner retires, I have faith in Whisenhunt that he will keep this franchise playing good, solid football.
4.) Sean Payton - NO
He is every bit as instrumental as Brees in the resurrection of a franchise. He is the new Mike Martz, except without the added dose of Crazy that Martz had. He looks cool, coaches cool and just steamrolls teams. He has been great in game-planning, finding every single defensive weakness that the other teams had, and exploiting it over and over (Jonathan Wilhite will probably have nightmares after that Monday Night Game). He was top-10 entering this year, but he jumped up a level for two reasons. He finally embraced the run game, as he changed the blocking-scheme to a zone-blocking scheme. However, the bigger deal is he finally started to care about that defense. The 2008 Saints offense was probably 90% as good as the 2009 one, but this team is 12-0 beacuse he embraced defense, got the guy he wanted, Gregg Williams (a mad attacking blitzer mostly, the defensive counterpart to the attacking Payton) and this team tunred a new gear. His players love him, his owner and GM love him, and the state of Louisiana loves him. Payton never really gets the amount of credit he deserves for his part in the Saints part in rebuilding New Orleans, but I think he finally will this year.
He is every bit as instrumental as Brees in the resurrection of a franchise. He is the new Mike Martz, except without the added dose of Crazy that Martz had. He looks cool, coaches cool and just steamrolls teams. He has been great in game-planning, finding every single defensive weakness that the other teams had, and exploiting it over and over (Jonathan Wilhite will probably have nightmares after that Monday Night Game). He was top-10 entering this year, but he jumped up a level for two reasons. He finally embraced the run game, as he changed the blocking-scheme to a zone-blocking scheme. However, the bigger deal is he finally started to care about that defense. The 2008 Saints offense was probably 90% as good as the 2009 one, but this team is 12-0 beacuse he embraced defense, got the guy he wanted, Gregg Williams (a mad attacking blitzer mostly, the defensive counterpart to the attacking Payton) and this team tunred a new gear. His players love him, his owner and GM love him, and the state of Louisiana loves him. Payton never really gets the amount of credit he deserves for his part in the Saints part in rebuilding New Orleans, but I think he finally will this year.
3.) Jeff Fisher - TEN
Remember, he has little to no input in presonnel. He is given the players, good bad or average, and told to make them into winners, and he does. He hasn't always had the best of teams, but discounting the two year rebuid from 2004-2005, he has been as consistent as they come. Sure, he has had his faults in the playoffs, but he has always gotten the most out of his teams. Chris Mortensen once mused that if Fisher was fired at 9 AM, he would get a new job by 3 PM. He started out 0-6, and got that team motivated. Now, he cannot be beyond blame for an 0-6 start, but he is the one coach I trusted to get that team out of its mireful start. He is one of the pillars of the league, and considering he is only 51, he could coach for quite a while. It will be interesting to see when he steps down, as he has been coaching now for 15 years, but I'm telling you the guy is one of the best out there.
2.) Tom Coughlin - NYG
He has been great in New York, taking the team to the playoffs 4 straight times, balancing such
And then there's Bill. I hate him with every fiber of my body. He's arrogant, childish in defeat and cocky in victory, and he is probably the most loathsome coach in NFL history, yet I cannot deny his place as the best coach of his era (only Dungy comes close, but alas he had to retire). He is a defensive whiz (although for every great defensive game he has coached, you could cancel it with a big game where his defense has folded - ok, enough slights), but more than that, he was a brilliant personnell guy. He built those New England teams. Now, I'm not talking about the 2007 one, I'm talking about the 2001-2006 Pats, the pre-Moss, pre-sellout Pats. Without Belichick, they are the Eagles. He was a great game manager, never wasting timeouts, going for it when necessary, never fearing backlash. He was the best. He still is. The team may be floundering (considering nearly 90% of the media was handing them a 14-2 record, 45 TDs for Brady and a Super Bowl ring, I'd say that 7-5 is floundering), yet I don't want to play them in the playoffs for one reason: Belichick. He can still win any one game. He can still gameplan that defense through anything. He's still the best in the game. Just please, media, stop comparing him to Walsh. He's not Bill Walsh, or even Noll or Lombardi or Paul Brown. He is, though, the best head coach of the 2000's, and the best in 2009.
lunatics as Strahan, Burress and the ultimate Tiki Barber. He was smart enough to change his hard-nosed approach a little, and his team rewarded him with a Super Bowl. Before I get into his Giant tenure, he was the coach of the Jaguars at their inception. He had them in the conference title game in year 2 (of their history), and followed that up with a 11-5, 11-5, 14-2 run. Compare that to the Texans, who in year 8 have never had a winning season. Then, he goes to New York, and is in a 11-5, 8-8, 10-6, 12-4, 7-5 run, which is right up there with Parcells as the most successful in Giants history. He deserves major props for winning his first Super Bowl, handling the New York media perfectly, and leading the Giants into a period of success they haven't tasted since Phil Simms was walking through that door. However, he deserves more for that job in Jacksonville.
1.) Bill Belichick - NE
And then there's Bill. I hate him with every fiber of my body. He's arrogant, childish in defeat and cocky in victory, and he is probably the most loathsome coach in NFL history, yet I cannot deny his place as the best coach of his era (only Dungy comes close, but alas he had to retire). He is a defensive whiz (although for every great defensive game he has coached, you could cancel it with a big game where his defense has folded - ok, enough slights), but more than that, he was a brilliant personnell guy. He built those New England teams. Now, I'm not talking about the 2007 one, I'm talking about the 2001-2006 Pats, the pre-Moss, pre-sellout Pats. Without Belichick, they are the Eagles. He was a great game manager, never wasting timeouts, going for it when necessary, never fearing backlash. He was the best. He still is. The team may be floundering (considering nearly 90% of the media was handing them a 14-2 record, 45 TDs for Brady and a Super Bowl ring, I'd say that 7-5 is floundering), yet I don't want to play them in the playoffs for one reason: Belichick. He can still win any one game. He can still gameplan that defense through anything. He's still the best in the game. Just please, media, stop comparing him to Walsh. He's not Bill Walsh, or even Noll or Lombardi or Paul Brown. He is, though, the best head coach of the 2000's, and the best in 2009.
Week 14 NFL Power Rankings
Let's bang these out early, becuase integrating polar curves beckons.
32.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)
Welcome back, fellas!!!! It's been so long, we've forgotten what it was like to see you at the bottom. The Raiders are a joke of a franchise, with an owner who is being exhumed as we speak and a coach who has slapped more wives and ex-wives than won games. Yet, the Bucs are in a worse state seven years after Super Bowl XXXVII. That is hilarious. Looks like the Bucs may have won the battle (that alleged Super Bowl, a one that looks more hilarious when you think that the Colts, Pats and Steelers have made the Super Bowl in seven of the last eight years, and the Raiders are that eighth team). The Bucs have won the battle, but the Raiders won the war.
31.) Cleveland Browns (1-11)
So, they lost at home to a team from sunny California in a 15 degree chill, and they move up!! Such is life in the dregs of the NFL (which is suddenly down to only five truly bad teams). They actually looked good in the beginning of that game, and made a run at the end, but they should have easily given San Diego a better run than that. San Diego turns into pussied-out children in cold, and that was COLD, and they made San Diego look like the 1984 Dolphins. This is all becuase I am not ready to buy the Chargers, so: shame on you Browns.
30.) St. Louis Rams (1-11)
They play hard. They hung tough with the Bears in Chicago (talk about Cold). They play hard for Spags, and now that defense is starting to play better. They have a future, I am telling you. Scott Linehan killed their future, as they went 5-27 the last two years, and now Billy Devaney and Spags have arguablythe hardest job in Sports. What hurts more is that the Rams fans got their panties wet with that Greatest Show on Turf early on. Until the Rams start pinballing that scoreboard again, they will never get fans to come to see them win 23-14 slugfests.
29.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)
Sure, they have one more win than the Lions, but they have lost the last two games (division games, mind you, which are generally close) 27-87. That is putrid. That is Buccaneers and Browns bad. Matt Cassel is a bust of JaMarcus porportions (not size porportions, becuase only pre-Subway Jared rivals those porportions, but skill porportions), and now they are in a QB-competition between him and Brodie Croyle. I think that alleged competition made me vomit a bit. That is hard to fathom. Talk about Lamar Hunt turning over in his grave.
28.) Detroit Lions (2-10)
They played pretty well against the Bengals (and that is no small feat, given the Lions roster) and they have even played Jim Schwartz type defense (gap-control, tackle pressure) recently. Like the Rams, this team has a future as well. They have a solid coach (who is an avid reader of Football Outsiders - the best independent run blog on football) and a good GM. The Lions have a good young QB (who is only 21, so there is time to grow) and a stud WR if there ever was one. I'm telling you, Lions fans, hibernate a little for like 5 years, and you will have a playoff team in front of your eyes.
27.) Buffalo Bills (4-8)
The Perry Fewell era lasted long. That was a hopeless performance in Toronto. What was interensting is they ran it with Marshawn Lynch like three times in a row, gaining huge yards each time, ending in a resounding touchdown. Next time they took the field, where was Marshawn Lynch. God knows, probably off creating his tenth child with his eighth baby-momma. Fred Jackson was back in, the team was back to being nothing. Toronto was back to slingboxing and iPhoning and Blackberrying the Leafs game.
26.) Washington Redskins (3-9)
I'll give them credit for playing well, and actually looking like a competent offense. However, if I do such, I also have to hit them upside the head for blowing that game. Someone should make sure that Mercury Morris (or some other random geriatric from that '72 Dolphins team) has not axe-murdered Shaun Suisham. I think I can make a 23 yard field goal. I think I can hit a 33 yard field goal. That was the most indefensible miss ever. How can that happen. We are in a league where kickers are making 45-50 yard field goals with regularity, but this guy misses a 23 yarder?
25.) San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
It's hard to remember that they started the year on a 3 game winning streak from last year, and beat the defending NFC champs. Now, those same NFC Champs come back into Candlestick. Since that game, the 49ers have caved to the demands of a diva wideout and are 4-7 since that game, while the Cardinals look like a better version of a team that made it within one Holmes' catch from a Super Bowl last year. Interesting how it turned out. I'll have you note that I was never on the 49ers bandwagon. I think Crabtree is overrated (he's no Louis Murphy!!!), and that Mike Singletary is over his head. Bill Walsh is turning over in his grave.
24.) Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
Word is that Holmgren is coming back. That is probably enough to excite Seahawk fans, and keep them from drowning themselves in a Kurt Cobain shaped vase filled with a Venti Latte wit Foam. Let's also not forget that they have one two games in a row, and are a capable spoiler. Justin Forsett, who was a beast at Cal, has turned into a Player. Deon Butler has turned into the best D. Butler rookie in the NFL. Matt Hasselbeck hasn't turned into a bald quadroplejic, which is a shock given the pounding he has taken. Jim Mora might keep his job afterall. Also, they are still run by an eccentric billionaire, and they will stay in Seattle for a long, long time, which is a huge plus these days in Seattle.
23.) Oakland Raiders (4-8)
Sure, they are the butt of everyone's jokes. However, they are 2-1 with Gradkowski starting. Honestly, considering every 6-6 team is still alive in that wild-card race, they probably would be a contender had Brucey G started all year. Also, they have beaten the 8-4 Eagles, the 9-3 Bengals and the defending Super Bowl champs. Now, Gradkowski is not the future, but at least he makes the immediate future brighter. For once, it is fun to be a Raider fan. I'll enjoy it for now, since come next week after we lose when Shaun Suisham inevitbly hits a 60 yarder at the gun, it won't be as fun.
22.) Chicago Bears (5-7)At least they won. At least Jay Cutler did not throw a pick. So what if the game resembled a classic Craig Krenzel Bears game? They won the game. That's all I have to say.
21.) Carolina Panthers (5-7)
They were absolutely outplayed by the Bucs. Thank God for Josh Freeman and his never-ending line of end-zone interceptions. Jonathan Stewart played well, and Matt Moore played a great AJ Feeley like performance (sadly, that is better than a Jake Delhomme model 2009 perofrmance). They will probably get waxed this weekend in New England (especially if DeAngelo misses the game again). They will probably fire John Fox (who is amazingly one of the longest tenured coaches in the NFL), they will probably cut ties with Delhomme. Steve Smith will probably slap someone, all is normal in mediocrity-ville.
20.) Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
I honestly have never picked an easier game than that Falcons-Eagles game, with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner out. That said, let's go to that Mike Vick talk. I understand the standing ovation and riotous cheers when he entered the game, but a "We want Mike Vick" chant?? Really? That is indefensible. Matt Ryan may be overrated, but he is better than Vick. Come on, Atlanta. Come on.
19.) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)
Not only is this team 7-5, which currently makes them the 6th seed by themselves. They also have a 6-2 conference record as of right now, which gives them a huge tiebreaker advantage over that 6-6 muck. The AFC Wild-Card race will be interesting, but really, unless Troy comes back and Pittsburgh starts playing like Pittsburgh, pointless. We will most likely see two teams 10-6 or worse in the playoffs in the AFC, and a potential 11-5 wild card in the NFC. The NFC is better at the top, and that hasn't happened in a long, long time.
18.) Houston Texans (5-7)
I will say this, they are almost humorous in their inablity to win games. They fumble at the goal line, the can't punch it in to tie a game from 1st and Goal at the 1, and then they throw a RB-pass option at the five which the RB foolishly throws to multiple members of the Jaguars. Rex Grossman looks like Rex Grossman (surprise). I hope they don't fire Kubiak. All those things above, except for maybe the Chris Brown pass, are not his fault. He's a good coach. When this team learns to win, look out. They can be a 12-4 team in a hurry.
17.) New York Jets (6-6)
Nice win in the Canada. Braylon Edwards is a joke. Congrats for that touchdown afterwards, but really, lost it in the lights?? I mean, baseball players, a phylum of athlete much less physically coordinated than that of the football players, catch a far smaller orb, one with a color shade resembling the lights, just fine under those lights. Come on, Braylon. Come on. I guess Braylon deposited his hands in Romeo Crennell's grave during his funeral.
16.) Tennessee Titans (5-7)
They played hard, but showed why they are just nowhere near Indianapolis. They cannot score in the redzone, they lose their cool, and they make dumb decisions (Vince Young, there is a sideline for a reason). When 117 yards is a bad game, you know you are just the illest of characters, Chris Johnson. I'll admit, I was wrong on him. With the dreads, and those facial expressions, I thought he was the RB version of the Pacman, but alas, he can play the game and seems to not get into trouble. Well done, Chris, well done.
15.) Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
You get 175 yards of penalties gifted your way, and you can't win. Honestly, that offense looked atrocious. With Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs out, I expected the team to play average on defense. Their defense actually outplayed that offense last night. The Ravens just could not play with the Packers. Now, if Reed played, they would be better in the back end, because he would not have allowed those completions. They might have played a more competitive game. This is a team that has no business associating with the word "playoffs" but since the AFC is mired in a slew of 6-6 teams, they have a shot. Doubt they get it, but at least there still is a chance.
14.) Miami Dolphins (6-6)
Talk about still having a chance. That was a perfect Parcells like ugly victory over the Patriots. The Pats compiled the stats, but they were not ready for the gunfight at the end. Tony Sparano was. This team, without any use of the wildcat, was ready to go offensively. Now, that might say more about the defensive state of the Patriots, but they made plays when necessary. I said in my "10 predictions for the 2nd half" that either them or the Panthers would make a run. I thought it would be Carolina, but at least I had the right team in there.
13.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
Really, Oakland?? Really. That was a weird game. They looked purely 2000-Baltimore-ian in the first three quarters. What happened?? That defensed resembled New England (yup, I said it) in the fourth quarter. Troy Polamalu cannot possibly mean this much. I mean, I guess he does, but really that is not Steeler football. I thought all along that Tomlin's "We will unleash hell in December" was a creed that would inspire this team to win out... until they play Indianapolis, but I was wrong.
12.) New York Giants (7-5)
Good win. Good special teams. Brandon Jacobs finally did something. Eli Manning made Eli Manning like throws. Their defensive line actually did something for the first time in years. Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks played well. That back-line of the defense stiffened when necessary. Good performance. Doesn't entirely make up for the ultimate dump they took in Denver last week, but at least it puts them in perfect position to win that division, assuming they win this week against Philly.
11.) Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
That wasn't totally Romo's fault, I'll give him that. However, that was pure Dallas-ian football. They gained more yards, they turned the ball over fewer times, and they even won the Time of Possession by nearly 2-to-1. However, they lost because they disregarded Special Teams, and did not make the key stops. They celebrate after doing nothing, they can't tackle the slowest running back in the NFL (at least until the Raiders start running Fat-Russell as a goal-line FB). They are here for now, but they have the hardest of schedules remaining, and it would not shock me to have them outside the playoffs again.
10.) New England Patriots (7-5)
Really, I should have them lower. They have done nothing to deserve even this spot. They are now 1-5 on the road, and 0-5 playing away from anywhere with the name "England" not involved. They rack up stats, but not points. Even their performances that are lauded by the media, like their first Miami win, where off performances. Evidently, Tom Brady may not be God incarnate after all. I loved how before the Pats last drive, Jim Nantz said some "How many times has Tom Brady done this before". I laugh at those. Peyton Manning has 6 fourth quarter game winning drives this year. Brady has a total of 0. Absolutely none. His last was the game against the Ravens in 2007.
9.) Green Bay Packers (8-4)
Quietly they have won 4 in a row. They are mightily impressive on defense, unless they are playing Minnesota. Since they have an eaiser schedule than any of the NFC East trio, they will probably end up with the 5 seed, and I will take them over the NFC East winner, no matter who it is. They are a team that will become a powerhouse of the NFL in a couple of years. That defense is loaded with young talent. If they just had a semi-competent o-line (and it has been better recently) I would have them challenging the top-3 of the NFC.
8.) Denver Broncos (8-4)
A tale of three seasons for the ages. San Diego better watch its back. This team is for real again. Now, I expect Indy to push them around next week, but they will be a loud out in the playoffs. They will most likely get a wild card, and New England, San Diego or Cincy, whoever ends up playing them, will have a tough game on their hands. I love all of this, since that only means those teams beating themselves up before they get to the Colts.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
If DeSean is back next weekend, it will be an interesting game with them and the Giants. I don't think that Michael Vick will be anything the rest of the year, it was a one time deal to appease the Atlanta fans, but it was good to see him play once. As for the Eagles, their schizophrenic nature is hard to handle (what the hell happened in Oakland?), but they are a team that, like Green Bay, is quietly 8-4, in perfect position to make a run at this thing. Now, I don't think they are nearly as good as either Arizona, Minnesota or New Orleans, but they will make that NFC race really interesting.
6.) San Diego Chargers (9-3)
If they are 11-3 after two weeks, I will be very afraid. However, I still don't trust them. They have a New England quality to them, where they are world-beaters against the bad teams, but lay down against the good teams. I rewatched the first half of the Chargers-Steelers game a couple days ago on NFL Rewind, and it was shocking to see them turn into sheep led into a manly slaughter they wanted no part of. They are another team that wants no part of a gunfight, and that is why I think that they will lose their bye two weeks from now against Cincinnatti. Either way, they seem to still play well against the Colts, so I am all in favor of the Steelers sneaking into that 6 spot and knocking off the Chargers in round one.
5.) Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Just remember, Favre is 40. Now, most teams aren't as good as the Cardinals, but sadly, they still have to play some of those teams (Giants, Bengals). It wasn't a good start for the Game 12-16 stretch for Favre, the exact same stretch he mailed in last year, with an "injury" to his shoulder. That team was just so overmatched Sunday Night. Not exactly a good precurser with Cincinnatti coming in 12 days. That will be a fight that Favre, in his advanced age, probably wants nothing of. In the mean time, this is still a good team, that goes to the next level at home. So, assuming they don't blow up in a ball of fames, they should get the two seed in front of that raucous crowd.
4.) Arizona Cardinals (8-4)
That was mighty, mighty impressive. They blocked better, ran better, passed better, tackled better, covered better, and even returned better than everyone's darling team. Kurt Warner looks to have full recovered from that head booboo, but something tells me that he probably considered retirement after EJ Henderson's freak femur injury. That defense plays with a Pittsburgh intensity (and that means the good Pittsburgh, and not the "raise Hell in December" Pittsburgh.
3.) Cincinnatti Bengals (9-3)
I am surprised why people hammer this team for not getting up for the Browns and the Lions. Isn't that exactly what we loved about the 2003 Patriots, the team that most resembles this Bengals team. They play solid defense, best in the NFL. They have two great cover corners. They can run the ball to the effect of 3 different 100 yard rushers in the last three weeks. Ochocino finally looked like Chad Johnson. This team keeps winning, and even if they go 1-1 in their two week armeggedon of a road-trip, they will still "raise hell in December". It's almost as if them and Pittsburgh switched places in the offseason.
2.) New Orleans Saints (12-0)
I'll give them credit for winning a game where they were far from their best. They are going undefeated. This was their Baltimore game that New England had two years ago. They were supposed to lose that game, everything was set up for a letdown to a bad team. Neither did, both went undefeated and the Pats lost the Super Bowl...... mmmmmm...... makes me happy.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (12-0)
Just like that team at 32, WELCOME BACK, BOYS!!!! That was a great performance against a hot team. They could've one that game 45-10 if they wanted. They, unlike the Pats and Saints, lay up against teams they have in a chokehold at halftime. Also, don't assume they will just lay down and sit players when they lock things up. In 2005, they had locked everything up when they were 13-0. They played Manning, and Harrison, Wayne, Freeney et al against San Diego. They chased perfection in 2005, and I say they will do the same, to some part, in 2009.
Projected Playoff Seeding
AFC
1.) Indianapolis 15-1
2.) Cincinatti 13-3
3.) San Diego 12-4
4.) New England 11-5
5.) Denver 11-5
6.) Pittsburgh 10-6
NFC
1.) New Orleans 16-0
2.) Minnesota 13-3
3.) Arizona 12-4
4.) Philadelphia 11-5
5.) Green Bay 11-5
6.) New York 10-6
32.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)
Welcome back, fellas!!!! It's been so long, we've forgotten what it was like to see you at the bottom. The Raiders are a joke of a franchise, with an owner who is being exhumed as we speak and a coach who has slapped more wives and ex-wives than won games. Yet, the Bucs are in a worse state seven years after Super Bowl XXXVII. That is hilarious. Looks like the Bucs may have won the battle (that alleged Super Bowl, a one that looks more hilarious when you think that the Colts, Pats and Steelers have made the Super Bowl in seven of the last eight years, and the Raiders are that eighth team). The Bucs have won the battle, but the Raiders won the war.
31.) Cleveland Browns (1-11)
So, they lost at home to a team from sunny California in a 15 degree chill, and they move up!! Such is life in the dregs of the NFL (which is suddenly down to only five truly bad teams). They actually looked good in the beginning of that game, and made a run at the end, but they should have easily given San Diego a better run than that. San Diego turns into pussied-out children in cold, and that was COLD, and they made San Diego look like the 1984 Dolphins. This is all becuase I am not ready to buy the Chargers, so: shame on you Browns.
30.) St. Louis Rams (1-11)
They play hard. They hung tough with the Bears in Chicago (talk about Cold). They play hard for Spags, and now that defense is starting to play better. They have a future, I am telling you. Scott Linehan killed their future, as they went 5-27 the last two years, and now Billy Devaney and Spags have arguablythe hardest job in Sports. What hurts more is that the Rams fans got their panties wet with that Greatest Show on Turf early on. Until the Rams start pinballing that scoreboard again, they will never get fans to come to see them win 23-14 slugfests.
29.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)
Sure, they have one more win than the Lions, but they have lost the last two games (division games, mind you, which are generally close) 27-87. That is putrid. That is Buccaneers and Browns bad. Matt Cassel is a bust of JaMarcus porportions (not size porportions, becuase only pre-Subway Jared rivals those porportions, but skill porportions), and now they are in a QB-competition between him and Brodie Croyle. I think that alleged competition made me vomit a bit. That is hard to fathom. Talk about Lamar Hunt turning over in his grave.
28.) Detroit Lions (2-10)
They played pretty well against the Bengals (and that is no small feat, given the Lions roster) and they have even played Jim Schwartz type defense (gap-control, tackle pressure) recently. Like the Rams, this team has a future as well. They have a solid coach (who is an avid reader of Football Outsiders - the best independent run blog on football) and a good GM. The Lions have a good young QB (who is only 21, so there is time to grow) and a stud WR if there ever was one. I'm telling you, Lions fans, hibernate a little for like 5 years, and you will have a playoff team in front of your eyes.
27.) Buffalo Bills (4-8)
The Perry Fewell era lasted long. That was a hopeless performance in Toronto. What was interensting is they ran it with Marshawn Lynch like three times in a row, gaining huge yards each time, ending in a resounding touchdown. Next time they took the field, where was Marshawn Lynch. God knows, probably off creating his tenth child with his eighth baby-momma. Fred Jackson was back in, the team was back to being nothing. Toronto was back to slingboxing and iPhoning and Blackberrying the Leafs game.
26.) Washington Redskins (3-9)
I'll give them credit for playing well, and actually looking like a competent offense. However, if I do such, I also have to hit them upside the head for blowing that game. Someone should make sure that Mercury Morris (or some other random geriatric from that '72 Dolphins team) has not axe-murdered Shaun Suisham. I think I can make a 23 yard field goal. I think I can hit a 33 yard field goal. That was the most indefensible miss ever. How can that happen. We are in a league where kickers are making 45-50 yard field goals with regularity, but this guy misses a 23 yarder?
25.) San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
It's hard to remember that they started the year on a 3 game winning streak from last year, and beat the defending NFC champs. Now, those same NFC Champs come back into Candlestick. Since that game, the 49ers have caved to the demands of a diva wideout and are 4-7 since that game, while the Cardinals look like a better version of a team that made it within one Holmes' catch from a Super Bowl last year. Interesting how it turned out. I'll have you note that I was never on the 49ers bandwagon. I think Crabtree is overrated (he's no Louis Murphy!!!), and that Mike Singletary is over his head. Bill Walsh is turning over in his grave.
24.) Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
Word is that Holmgren is coming back. That is probably enough to excite Seahawk fans, and keep them from drowning themselves in a Kurt Cobain shaped vase filled with a Venti Latte wit Foam. Let's also not forget that they have one two games in a row, and are a capable spoiler. Justin Forsett, who was a beast at Cal, has turned into a Player. Deon Butler has turned into the best D. Butler rookie in the NFL. Matt Hasselbeck hasn't turned into a bald quadroplejic, which is a shock given the pounding he has taken. Jim Mora might keep his job afterall. Also, they are still run by an eccentric billionaire, and they will stay in Seattle for a long, long time, which is a huge plus these days in Seattle.
23.) Oakland Raiders (4-8)
Sure, they are the butt of everyone's jokes. However, they are 2-1 with Gradkowski starting. Honestly, considering every 6-6 team is still alive in that wild-card race, they probably would be a contender had Brucey G started all year. Also, they have beaten the 8-4 Eagles, the 9-3 Bengals and the defending Super Bowl champs. Now, Gradkowski is not the future, but at least he makes the immediate future brighter. For once, it is fun to be a Raider fan. I'll enjoy it for now, since come next week after we lose when Shaun Suisham inevitbly hits a 60 yarder at the gun, it won't be as fun.
22.) Chicago Bears (5-7)At least they won. At least Jay Cutler did not throw a pick. So what if the game resembled a classic Craig Krenzel Bears game? They won the game. That's all I have to say.
21.) Carolina Panthers (5-7)
They were absolutely outplayed by the Bucs. Thank God for Josh Freeman and his never-ending line of end-zone interceptions. Jonathan Stewart played well, and Matt Moore played a great AJ Feeley like performance (sadly, that is better than a Jake Delhomme model 2009 perofrmance). They will probably get waxed this weekend in New England (especially if DeAngelo misses the game again). They will probably fire John Fox (who is amazingly one of the longest tenured coaches in the NFL), they will probably cut ties with Delhomme. Steve Smith will probably slap someone, all is normal in mediocrity-ville.
20.) Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
I honestly have never picked an easier game than that Falcons-Eagles game, with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner out. That said, let's go to that Mike Vick talk. I understand the standing ovation and riotous cheers when he entered the game, but a "We want Mike Vick" chant?? Really? That is indefensible. Matt Ryan may be overrated, but he is better than Vick. Come on, Atlanta. Come on.
19.) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)
Not only is this team 7-5, which currently makes them the 6th seed by themselves. They also have a 6-2 conference record as of right now, which gives them a huge tiebreaker advantage over that 6-6 muck. The AFC Wild-Card race will be interesting, but really, unless Troy comes back and Pittsburgh starts playing like Pittsburgh, pointless. We will most likely see two teams 10-6 or worse in the playoffs in the AFC, and a potential 11-5 wild card in the NFC. The NFC is better at the top, and that hasn't happened in a long, long time.
18.) Houston Texans (5-7)
I will say this, they are almost humorous in their inablity to win games. They fumble at the goal line, the can't punch it in to tie a game from 1st and Goal at the 1, and then they throw a RB-pass option at the five which the RB foolishly throws to multiple members of the Jaguars. Rex Grossman looks like Rex Grossman (surprise). I hope they don't fire Kubiak. All those things above, except for maybe the Chris Brown pass, are not his fault. He's a good coach. When this team learns to win, look out. They can be a 12-4 team in a hurry.
17.) New York Jets (6-6)
Nice win in the Canada. Braylon Edwards is a joke. Congrats for that touchdown afterwards, but really, lost it in the lights?? I mean, baseball players, a phylum of athlete much less physically coordinated than that of the football players, catch a far smaller orb, one with a color shade resembling the lights, just fine under those lights. Come on, Braylon. Come on. I guess Braylon deposited his hands in Romeo Crennell's grave during his funeral.
16.) Tennessee Titans (5-7)
They played hard, but showed why they are just nowhere near Indianapolis. They cannot score in the redzone, they lose their cool, and they make dumb decisions (Vince Young, there is a sideline for a reason). When 117 yards is a bad game, you know you are just the illest of characters, Chris Johnson. I'll admit, I was wrong on him. With the dreads, and those facial expressions, I thought he was the RB version of the Pacman, but alas, he can play the game and seems to not get into trouble. Well done, Chris, well done.
15.) Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
You get 175 yards of penalties gifted your way, and you can't win. Honestly, that offense looked atrocious. With Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs out, I expected the team to play average on defense. Their defense actually outplayed that offense last night. The Ravens just could not play with the Packers. Now, if Reed played, they would be better in the back end, because he would not have allowed those completions. They might have played a more competitive game. This is a team that has no business associating with the word "playoffs" but since the AFC is mired in a slew of 6-6 teams, they have a shot. Doubt they get it, but at least there still is a chance.
14.) Miami Dolphins (6-6)
Talk about still having a chance. That was a perfect Parcells like ugly victory over the Patriots. The Pats compiled the stats, but they were not ready for the gunfight at the end. Tony Sparano was. This team, without any use of the wildcat, was ready to go offensively. Now, that might say more about the defensive state of the Patriots, but they made plays when necessary. I said in my "10 predictions for the 2nd half" that either them or the Panthers would make a run. I thought it would be Carolina, but at least I had the right team in there.
13.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
Really, Oakland?? Really. That was a weird game. They looked purely 2000-Baltimore-ian in the first three quarters. What happened?? That defensed resembled New England (yup, I said it) in the fourth quarter. Troy Polamalu cannot possibly mean this much. I mean, I guess he does, but really that is not Steeler football. I thought all along that Tomlin's "We will unleash hell in December" was a creed that would inspire this team to win out... until they play Indianapolis, but I was wrong.
12.) New York Giants (7-5)
Good win. Good special teams. Brandon Jacobs finally did something. Eli Manning made Eli Manning like throws. Their defensive line actually did something for the first time in years. Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks played well. That back-line of the defense stiffened when necessary. Good performance. Doesn't entirely make up for the ultimate dump they took in Denver last week, but at least it puts them in perfect position to win that division, assuming they win this week against Philly.
11.) Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
That wasn't totally Romo's fault, I'll give him that. However, that was pure Dallas-ian football. They gained more yards, they turned the ball over fewer times, and they even won the Time of Possession by nearly 2-to-1. However, they lost because they disregarded Special Teams, and did not make the key stops. They celebrate after doing nothing, they can't tackle the slowest running back in the NFL (at least until the Raiders start running Fat-Russell as a goal-line FB). They are here for now, but they have the hardest of schedules remaining, and it would not shock me to have them outside the playoffs again.
10.) New England Patriots (7-5)
Really, I should have them lower. They have done nothing to deserve even this spot. They are now 1-5 on the road, and 0-5 playing away from anywhere with the name "England" not involved. They rack up stats, but not points. Even their performances that are lauded by the media, like their first Miami win, where off performances. Evidently, Tom Brady may not be God incarnate after all. I loved how before the Pats last drive, Jim Nantz said some "How many times has Tom Brady done this before". I laugh at those. Peyton Manning has 6 fourth quarter game winning drives this year. Brady has a total of 0. Absolutely none. His last was the game against the Ravens in 2007.
9.) Green Bay Packers (8-4)
Quietly they have won 4 in a row. They are mightily impressive on defense, unless they are playing Minnesota. Since they have an eaiser schedule than any of the NFC East trio, they will probably end up with the 5 seed, and I will take them over the NFC East winner, no matter who it is. They are a team that will become a powerhouse of the NFL in a couple of years. That defense is loaded with young talent. If they just had a semi-competent o-line (and it has been better recently) I would have them challenging the top-3 of the NFC.
8.) Denver Broncos (8-4)
A tale of three seasons for the ages. San Diego better watch its back. This team is for real again. Now, I expect Indy to push them around next week, but they will be a loud out in the playoffs. They will most likely get a wild card, and New England, San Diego or Cincy, whoever ends up playing them, will have a tough game on their hands. I love all of this, since that only means those teams beating themselves up before they get to the Colts.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
If DeSean is back next weekend, it will be an interesting game with them and the Giants. I don't think that Michael Vick will be anything the rest of the year, it was a one time deal to appease the Atlanta fans, but it was good to see him play once. As for the Eagles, their schizophrenic nature is hard to handle (what the hell happened in Oakland?), but they are a team that, like Green Bay, is quietly 8-4, in perfect position to make a run at this thing. Now, I don't think they are nearly as good as either Arizona, Minnesota or New Orleans, but they will make that NFC race really interesting.
6.) San Diego Chargers (9-3)
If they are 11-3 after two weeks, I will be very afraid. However, I still don't trust them. They have a New England quality to them, where they are world-beaters against the bad teams, but lay down against the good teams. I rewatched the first half of the Chargers-Steelers game a couple days ago on NFL Rewind, and it was shocking to see them turn into sheep led into a manly slaughter they wanted no part of. They are another team that wants no part of a gunfight, and that is why I think that they will lose their bye two weeks from now against Cincinnatti. Either way, they seem to still play well against the Colts, so I am all in favor of the Steelers sneaking into that 6 spot and knocking off the Chargers in round one.
5.) Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Just remember, Favre is 40. Now, most teams aren't as good as the Cardinals, but sadly, they still have to play some of those teams (Giants, Bengals). It wasn't a good start for the Game 12-16 stretch for Favre, the exact same stretch he mailed in last year, with an "injury" to his shoulder. That team was just so overmatched Sunday Night. Not exactly a good precurser with Cincinnatti coming in 12 days. That will be a fight that Favre, in his advanced age, probably wants nothing of. In the mean time, this is still a good team, that goes to the next level at home. So, assuming they don't blow up in a ball of fames, they should get the two seed in front of that raucous crowd.
4.) Arizona Cardinals (8-4)
That was mighty, mighty impressive. They blocked better, ran better, passed better, tackled better, covered better, and even returned better than everyone's darling team. Kurt Warner looks to have full recovered from that head booboo, but something tells me that he probably considered retirement after EJ Henderson's freak femur injury. That defense plays with a Pittsburgh intensity (and that means the good Pittsburgh, and not the "raise Hell in December" Pittsburgh.
3.) Cincinnatti Bengals (9-3)
I am surprised why people hammer this team for not getting up for the Browns and the Lions. Isn't that exactly what we loved about the 2003 Patriots, the team that most resembles this Bengals team. They play solid defense, best in the NFL. They have two great cover corners. They can run the ball to the effect of 3 different 100 yard rushers in the last three weeks. Ochocino finally looked like Chad Johnson. This team keeps winning, and even if they go 1-1 in their two week armeggedon of a road-trip, they will still "raise hell in December". It's almost as if them and Pittsburgh switched places in the offseason.
2.) New Orleans Saints (12-0)
I'll give them credit for winning a game where they were far from their best. They are going undefeated. This was their Baltimore game that New England had two years ago. They were supposed to lose that game, everything was set up for a letdown to a bad team. Neither did, both went undefeated and the Pats lost the Super Bowl...... mmmmmm...... makes me happy.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (12-0)
Just like that team at 32, WELCOME BACK, BOYS!!!! That was a great performance against a hot team. They could've one that game 45-10 if they wanted. They, unlike the Pats and Saints, lay up against teams they have in a chokehold at halftime. Also, don't assume they will just lay down and sit players when they lock things up. In 2005, they had locked everything up when they were 13-0. They played Manning, and Harrison, Wayne, Freeney et al against San Diego. They chased perfection in 2005, and I say they will do the same, to some part, in 2009.
Projected Playoff Seeding
AFC
1.) Indianapolis 15-1
2.) Cincinatti 13-3
3.) San Diego 12-4
4.) New England 11-5
5.) Denver 11-5
6.) Pittsburgh 10-6
NFC
1.) New Orleans 16-0
2.) Minnesota 13-3
3.) Arizona 12-4
4.) Philadelphia 11-5
5.) Green Bay 11-5
6.) New York 10-6
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Week 13 NFL Picks
After last week's picks hiatus, I'm ready to go. I've been studying the matchups, controlling my overpowering gut (instincts) and planned this week as if I was in Vegas trying to score millions of the games (note to Vegas: you are going to be very happy when some particular Blog writer turns 21). Let's GO:
Denver (-5.5) @ Kansas City
Interesting game. I think Denver has suddenly become a little bandwagony now. It's strange that during their real winning streak the media needed to see them win 6 games before they thought that Denver was "for real". Now, all they need is one? Everyone seems to be pegging Denver into a Wild Card spot (including me) without guessing twice. I find it strange. Anyway, as for this game, Chris Chambers has made Kansas City alot scarier of a team, however Matt Cassel propensity to take sacks and curl up on the ground like a ferrett may even that out. However, Denver has an awful history in Arrowhead Stadium. Since the Chiefs are a black hole of suck, I'm pretty sure their fans hate them now, but they will come out for Broncos week. If for only reason the Broncos cannot play well in Arrowhead, I'll take the Chiefs.
Denver 20 Chiefs 16 (KC)
Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-15)
Pittsburgh just is not good without Polamalu. I still think Ed Reed is the better player (witness his lock-ness in my Hall of Fame post, and Troy's should-be-in), but the way the Steeler defense is playing is great service to the font of brilliance that is the dreadlocked Tongan. So, Pittsburgh's defense is not good without Troy, and the Raiders defense is not good with all of their current enrostered defensive players. Nnamdi will lock down on either Santonio or Hines, but the other will carve up that secondary much like those fucking Turkeys on Thanksgiving. Also, Mendenhall will go off, and even count in Heath Miller for some action. Ben will get over that post-concussion groginess easily with the wide-open passes the Raiders are bound to give him.
Raiders 17 Steelers 38 (PIT)
Houston (-1) @ Jacksonville
Houston is just better. Sure, the Jags have a better record and they beat Houston in Houston. I don't care. Houston are worldbeaters when everyone finally leaps off the "Houston is Playoff Bound!!!" caravan, and now since even their fans, owners and half their players have, look for them to make a run. Jacksonville's pass rush sucks, and their best corner is out. So look for that Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson connection (my fantasy team will be looking long and hard). Also, its hard to even give Jacksonville a second look for being a home team, since the Jacksonville-ians are much more interested in that nights shuffleboard 4000 than the Jags game. Honestly, just move them to Portland or San Antonio, or even, god forbid, Los FUCKING Angeles.
Texans 34 Jaguars 20 (HOU)
Philadelphia (-5.5) @ Atlanta
Matt Ryan's out. Michael Turner and Roddy White are banged up, but could play. That's all I need to know. Actually, all I needed to know was that first injury. No way in hell Chris Redman wins this game. I'll put the over/under on the whole entire fanbase that the Falcons fans would rather have Michael Vick start that game for them than Chris Redman. And I would still take the over. This one is like stealing candy from a one-day old, let alone a baby.
Eagles 27 Falcons 10 (PHI)
Detroit @ Cincinnatti (-13)
This is an interesting game. I mean, Cincy will win, that's not the interesting part. The interest and wonder checks in with that line. Cincinnatti has blown out precisely one team this year: Chicago. They played only three other games against the Shitty teams, and lost one (@ Oakland) and kept the other two close (the Cleveland duo). So, there is reason to believe that they keep this one close. However, both of the other shit teams they play have a level they can reach on defense that Detroit just cannot touch. Both Cleveland and Oakland can play good to great defense on one particular day (it will use up their quota for the half year, but its possible). Detroit, on the other hand, made Brady Quinn look like Brady Quinn (the Notre Dame edition). Cincinnatti's defense is probably the best defense, as currently constructed, in the NFL. Not a good combination.
Lions 7 Bengals 30 (CIN)
New Orleans (-9.5) @ Washington
This is why the NFL is great. I can actually fathom a scenario where Washington wins this game. Washington is a good defensive team, they can cover well. They can run the ball (New Orleans biggest weakness), and they can too have those games where they look positively Pittsburgh-ian. So, why am I still going to pick New Orleans. Here's why: They are a great, great, great, great team. Everyone brings up that Rams game, but the Rams scored in garbage time, and New Orleans was basically missing everyone but Drew Brees on defense. They can win this game with their defense (like they did against the Jets and Buffalo earlier this year).
Saints 27 Redskins 14 (NO)
Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6.5)
I think it says something about a QB that he goes out, and the line is unchanged. I'm guessing had Jake Delhomme been in there, the line would have been exactly the same. Matt Moore sucks (just look at his numbers in his few starts in 2007). So does Tampa. Why anyone would watch this game is beyond me. If you live in the Tampa or Carolina areas (like I have any readers that live in Tampa), I would call and complain to FOX for subjecting you to such crap. This became my second "Just Toss a Damn Coin" games. Tails, and "Tails" and "Tampa" both start with "T"s, so there it is!!!
Buccaneers 20 Panthers 17 (TB)
St. Louis @ Chicago (-9)
There seemed to be a nice trail of people riding St. Louis this week. God knows why, as Kyle Boller is their starting QB now, but I guess its all Jay Cutler hate. The hate is well deserved, but really, he's not Cade McNown. He's not Craig Krenzel or Steve Hutchinson, or Stoney Case. He's a good player who's having a bad year. Brett Favre had similar years, yet no one gave him shit, because Favre was a good guy who did not look like he had just seen a picture of his parents getting it on, which is the expression that is plastered to Cutler's mug. If Cutler can't win them this game, then he best cross lake Mississippi, and move to Flint.
Rams 14 Bears 31 (CHI)
Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
My favorite line of the weak. Tennessee is on such a run. 5 straight wins, a huge performance by Vince Young. Chirs Johnson is the Chuck Norris of football right now. They just won a huge comeback game. Everything is pointing to a 6th straight win. Well, you know what? Everything is also pointing to a TWENTY-FIRST straight win for the Colts, too. Just to put that in comparison, people are going legitimately batshit over the Titans five game win streak, well the Colts have put together four 5-game win streaks. The last time they lost, was in October..... 2008. Also, there seems to be some "The Titans always play the Colts close" line going around. They do, in Nashville. They own the Titans in Indianapolis. This won't be close to what people are expecting. At all.
Titans 13 Colts 31 (IND)
San Diego (-13) @ Cleveland
Just writing about this game makes me depressed. San Diego is going to be 9-3 without beating a solitary good team, apart from Denver who also beat them. Actually, they beat the Giants, in a game where they were outgained 304-226 and the Eagles in one of their bipolar days. Not particularily impressive. However, Cleveland cannot suck more if they tried right now. I heard that Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo and Eric Weddle might all miss this game, and still if San Diego loses, they should be banished to the CFL.
Chargers 30 Browns 14 (SD)
San Francisco @ Seattle (PK)
Seattle should have one more great home game left in them this year. Also, with GM Tim Ruskell's resignation, something every Seahawk fan has secretly been pining for since 2007, there is that feeling of having finally destroyed that corpse in a way that is untracable. They have lived through the Ruskill ordeal, Holmgren is on speed-dial 2. All is right in Coffee-ville. On the other side, the schizophrenic overrated team continues. Sure, they destroyed a 6-4 Jacksonville team last week, but lord knows how. I never saw them with the ball on NFL RedZone. Seattle should drum them like a Gee-tar at home.
49ers 14 Seahawks 20 (SEA)
Dallas (-2.5) @ New York (n)
This is the toughest game for me. I still feel that New York is better, but now Eli Manning is suffering from pain again. I still feel that Dallas is a tad overrated, and that clock is striking midnight any second now for Miles Austin. They were awful in their two previous games before taking the magic elixir that is an evening with the Raiders. New York was as lifeless as a team can possibly be in Denver. Must've been the trictophan, or at least vodka poisoning, or something. Anyway, the Giants get up for Dallas week, and that's even when the Boys are clearly better. This is the game that the Giants need more. Dallas is in that San Diego zone where people are fondling their balls for winning games they should win, and not waiting for them to truly prove themselves. Outside of Philadelphia, Dallas has beaten nobody. Outside of Dallas, New York has beaten nobody. This is a really tough, tough game to pick. I'll say New York, just becuase they should be motivated in what is the last Boys-Giants game in old Giants Stadium.
Cowboys 20 Giants 24 (NYG)
New England (-6.5) @ Miami
This line is just stone-cold proof of the media's continual, never-ending, dick-sucking of the Patriots. There is just no better way to put it. That team was humiliated on Monday Night. Humiliated so bad that Bill Belichick was not even angry in the postgame handshake, just conceited that his time is up. However, if either New Orleans or Indianapolis, or even Minnesota, were playing in Miami this week, none of them would be favored by this much. What has New England done this year to be given this benefit of the doubt. What? Three good quarters in Indianapolis? Well, they followed that up with one of the all time blows in the fourth quarter. Honestly, I was in MIDDLE SCHOOL the last time they won the Super Bowl. It's time to stop thinking they are the class of the league, and the Golden children anymore. It's over. Now, if this line were one point higher, I would pick the Dolphins, but I think the Pats win by a touchdown, but most media act like the Dolphins will be some sort of sacrificial lamb. The Dolphins are a proud team that plays the Pats well. Especially in Miami.
Patriots 27 Dolphins 20 (NE)
Arizona @ Minnesota (NL)
There is no line because of Kurt Warner's vision. I'll say that if Warner plays, I'll take the Cards and whatever the points are. If Leinart plays, give me the Vikings and whatever those points are.
Baltimore @ Green Bay (-3)
Another good Monday Night game. ESPN has gotten great luck this year (I've programmed my mind to forget that Browns/Ravens debaccle). This is a good game between two teams in the Wild Card race. Green Bay is quietly 6-1 in non-Vikings games since September 27th. Baltimore is not quietly 6-5 and just outside the 6 seed if the playoffs started today. Baltimore is the more desperate team, as Green Bay is safely in the playoffs today, but Green Bay is expecting snow this weekend. Baltimore is probably the least northern north city, and snow is definitely out of their element. This makes me want to pick the Packers. What else makes me want to pick the Packers: the Ravens secretly aren't great at rushing the passer, while that is really the only way to beat the Packers.
Ravens 17 Packers 24 (GB)
Enjoy the Games!!
Denver (-5.5) @ Kansas City
Interesting game. I think Denver has suddenly become a little bandwagony now. It's strange that during their real winning streak the media needed to see them win 6 games before they thought that Denver was "for real". Now, all they need is one? Everyone seems to be pegging Denver into a Wild Card spot (including me) without guessing twice. I find it strange. Anyway, as for this game, Chris Chambers has made Kansas City alot scarier of a team, however Matt Cassel propensity to take sacks and curl up on the ground like a ferrett may even that out. However, Denver has an awful history in Arrowhead Stadium. Since the Chiefs are a black hole of suck, I'm pretty sure their fans hate them now, but they will come out for Broncos week. If for only reason the Broncos cannot play well in Arrowhead, I'll take the Chiefs.
Denver 20 Chiefs 16 (KC)
Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-15)
Pittsburgh just is not good without Polamalu. I still think Ed Reed is the better player (witness his lock-ness in my Hall of Fame post, and Troy's should-be-in), but the way the Steeler defense is playing is great service to the font of brilliance that is the dreadlocked Tongan. So, Pittsburgh's defense is not good without Troy, and the Raiders defense is not good with all of their current enrostered defensive players. Nnamdi will lock down on either Santonio or Hines, but the other will carve up that secondary much like those fucking Turkeys on Thanksgiving. Also, Mendenhall will go off, and even count in Heath Miller for some action. Ben will get over that post-concussion groginess easily with the wide-open passes the Raiders are bound to give him.
Raiders 17 Steelers 38 (PIT)
Houston (-1) @ Jacksonville
Houston is just better. Sure, the Jags have a better record and they beat Houston in Houston. I don't care. Houston are worldbeaters when everyone finally leaps off the "Houston is Playoff Bound!!!" caravan, and now since even their fans, owners and half their players have, look for them to make a run. Jacksonville's pass rush sucks, and their best corner is out. So look for that Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson connection (my fantasy team will be looking long and hard). Also, its hard to even give Jacksonville a second look for being a home team, since the Jacksonville-ians are much more interested in that nights shuffleboard 4000 than the Jags game. Honestly, just move them to Portland or San Antonio, or even, god forbid, Los FUCKING Angeles.
Texans 34 Jaguars 20 (HOU)
Philadelphia (-5.5) @ Atlanta
Matt Ryan's out. Michael Turner and Roddy White are banged up, but could play. That's all I need to know. Actually, all I needed to know was that first injury. No way in hell Chris Redman wins this game. I'll put the over/under on the whole entire fanbase that the Falcons fans would rather have Michael Vick start that game for them than Chris Redman. And I would still take the over. This one is like stealing candy from a one-day old, let alone a baby.
Eagles 27 Falcons 10 (PHI)
Detroit @ Cincinnatti (-13)
This is an interesting game. I mean, Cincy will win, that's not the interesting part. The interest and wonder checks in with that line. Cincinnatti has blown out precisely one team this year: Chicago. They played only three other games against the Shitty teams, and lost one (@ Oakland) and kept the other two close (the Cleveland duo). So, there is reason to believe that they keep this one close. However, both of the other shit teams they play have a level they can reach on defense that Detroit just cannot touch. Both Cleveland and Oakland can play good to great defense on one particular day (it will use up their quota for the half year, but its possible). Detroit, on the other hand, made Brady Quinn look like Brady Quinn (the Notre Dame edition). Cincinnatti's defense is probably the best defense, as currently constructed, in the NFL. Not a good combination.
Lions 7 Bengals 30 (CIN)
New Orleans (-9.5) @ Washington
This is why the NFL is great. I can actually fathom a scenario where Washington wins this game. Washington is a good defensive team, they can cover well. They can run the ball (New Orleans biggest weakness), and they can too have those games where they look positively Pittsburgh-ian. So, why am I still going to pick New Orleans. Here's why: They are a great, great, great, great team. Everyone brings up that Rams game, but the Rams scored in garbage time, and New Orleans was basically missing everyone but Drew Brees on defense. They can win this game with their defense (like they did against the Jets and Buffalo earlier this year).
Saints 27 Redskins 14 (NO)
Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6.5)
I think it says something about a QB that he goes out, and the line is unchanged. I'm guessing had Jake Delhomme been in there, the line would have been exactly the same. Matt Moore sucks (just look at his numbers in his few starts in 2007). So does Tampa. Why anyone would watch this game is beyond me. If you live in the Tampa or Carolina areas (like I have any readers that live in Tampa), I would call and complain to FOX for subjecting you to such crap. This became my second "Just Toss a Damn Coin" games. Tails, and "Tails" and "Tampa" both start with "T"s, so there it is!!!
Buccaneers 20 Panthers 17 (TB)
St. Louis @ Chicago (-9)
There seemed to be a nice trail of people riding St. Louis this week. God knows why, as Kyle Boller is their starting QB now, but I guess its all Jay Cutler hate. The hate is well deserved, but really, he's not Cade McNown. He's not Craig Krenzel or Steve Hutchinson, or Stoney Case. He's a good player who's having a bad year. Brett Favre had similar years, yet no one gave him shit, because Favre was a good guy who did not look like he had just seen a picture of his parents getting it on, which is the expression that is plastered to Cutler's mug. If Cutler can't win them this game, then he best cross lake Mississippi, and move to Flint.
Rams 14 Bears 31 (CHI)
Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
My favorite line of the weak. Tennessee is on such a run. 5 straight wins, a huge performance by Vince Young. Chirs Johnson is the Chuck Norris of football right now. They just won a huge comeback game. Everything is pointing to a 6th straight win. Well, you know what? Everything is also pointing to a TWENTY-FIRST straight win for the Colts, too. Just to put that in comparison, people are going legitimately batshit over the Titans five game win streak, well the Colts have put together four 5-game win streaks. The last time they lost, was in October..... 2008. Also, there seems to be some "The Titans always play the Colts close" line going around. They do, in Nashville. They own the Titans in Indianapolis. This won't be close to what people are expecting. At all.
Titans 13 Colts 31 (IND)
San Diego (-13) @ Cleveland
Just writing about this game makes me depressed. San Diego is going to be 9-3 without beating a solitary good team, apart from Denver who also beat them. Actually, they beat the Giants, in a game where they were outgained 304-226 and the Eagles in one of their bipolar days. Not particularily impressive. However, Cleveland cannot suck more if they tried right now. I heard that Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo and Eric Weddle might all miss this game, and still if San Diego loses, they should be banished to the CFL.
Chargers 30 Browns 14 (SD)
San Francisco @ Seattle (PK)
Seattle should have one more great home game left in them this year. Also, with GM Tim Ruskell's resignation, something every Seahawk fan has secretly been pining for since 2007, there is that feeling of having finally destroyed that corpse in a way that is untracable. They have lived through the Ruskill ordeal, Holmgren is on speed-dial 2. All is right in Coffee-ville. On the other side, the schizophrenic overrated team continues. Sure, they destroyed a 6-4 Jacksonville team last week, but lord knows how. I never saw them with the ball on NFL RedZone. Seattle should drum them like a Gee-tar at home.
49ers 14 Seahawks 20 (SEA)
Dallas (-2.5) @ New York (n)
This is the toughest game for me. I still feel that New York is better, but now Eli Manning is suffering from pain again. I still feel that Dallas is a tad overrated, and that clock is striking midnight any second now for Miles Austin. They were awful in their two previous games before taking the magic elixir that is an evening with the Raiders. New York was as lifeless as a team can possibly be in Denver. Must've been the trictophan, or at least vodka poisoning, or something. Anyway, the Giants get up for Dallas week, and that's even when the Boys are clearly better. This is the game that the Giants need more. Dallas is in that San Diego zone where people are fondling their balls for winning games they should win, and not waiting for them to truly prove themselves. Outside of Philadelphia, Dallas has beaten nobody. Outside of Dallas, New York has beaten nobody. This is a really tough, tough game to pick. I'll say New York, just becuase they should be motivated in what is the last Boys-Giants game in old Giants Stadium.
Cowboys 20 Giants 24 (NYG)
New England (-6.5) @ Miami
This line is just stone-cold proof of the media's continual, never-ending, dick-sucking of the Patriots. There is just no better way to put it. That team was humiliated on Monday Night. Humiliated so bad that Bill Belichick was not even angry in the postgame handshake, just conceited that his time is up. However, if either New Orleans or Indianapolis, or even Minnesota, were playing in Miami this week, none of them would be favored by this much. What has New England done this year to be given this benefit of the doubt. What? Three good quarters in Indianapolis? Well, they followed that up with one of the all time blows in the fourth quarter. Honestly, I was in MIDDLE SCHOOL the last time they won the Super Bowl. It's time to stop thinking they are the class of the league, and the Golden children anymore. It's over. Now, if this line were one point higher, I would pick the Dolphins, but I think the Pats win by a touchdown, but most media act like the Dolphins will be some sort of sacrificial lamb. The Dolphins are a proud team that plays the Pats well. Especially in Miami.
Patriots 27 Dolphins 20 (NE)
Arizona @ Minnesota (NL)
There is no line because of Kurt Warner's vision. I'll say that if Warner plays, I'll take the Cards and whatever the points are. If Leinart plays, give me the Vikings and whatever those points are.
Baltimore @ Green Bay (-3)
Another good Monday Night game. ESPN has gotten great luck this year (I've programmed my mind to forget that Browns/Ravens debaccle). This is a good game between two teams in the Wild Card race. Green Bay is quietly 6-1 in non-Vikings games since September 27th. Baltimore is not quietly 6-5 and just outside the 6 seed if the playoffs started today. Baltimore is the more desperate team, as Green Bay is safely in the playoffs today, but Green Bay is expecting snow this weekend. Baltimore is probably the least northern north city, and snow is definitely out of their element. This makes me want to pick the Packers. What else makes me want to pick the Packers: the Ravens secretly aren't great at rushing the passer, while that is really the only way to beat the Packers.
Ravens 17 Packers 24 (GB)
Enjoy the Games!!
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