Lounging Pass: April 2017

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs: 2nd Round Picks

That was one of the more interesting 1st Rounds I've seen in a long time. For the first time that I can remember, we had no Game 7s, and only four Game 6s. But we also had a ridiculous amount of OTs, including three six-game series that had 5, 4 and 3 OT games. That first one, the Caps-Leafs series, again, had 5 of their 6 games go to OT!

The NHL, and more so, NBC, is probably not all too happy to lose Chicago and Boston in the first round, but they keep New York, and maybe can grow US interest in Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers - which they probably should try to do given they'll probably a fixture in these parts of the playoffs for years to come.

Even to me, this is a weird set of series. The only team I'm really disappointed to see lose is Minnesota, as they play a much more attractive brand of hockey than the Blues, and also, as Bruce Boudreau correctly surmised, vastly outplayed St. Louis in that series only to lose in 5 games because Jake Allen became Marty Brodeur (who himself quietly became Allen's goalie coach this year) for a series.

Anyway, on to the serieses:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

(A2) Ottawa Senators (98 pts) vs. (A-WC) New York Rangers (102 pts)

The State of the Teams: The hockey-world (particularly Canada) would have probably wanted to renew Bruins vs. Canadiens for the umpteenth time (they've met in the playoffs in, get ready, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2014), but instead we get what could end up being a really interesting series. The Senators are, by any measure, the worst team to make the playoffs this year, with their negative goal differential. The Rangers are definitely not that, but they are also not a conventionally great team. They have ridiculous team speed, and depth at forward to roll three lines, but have regressed mightily on the blue-line (Ryan McDonagh got old quite fast). Both goalies are capable of stealing the series. Craig Anderson, already a crowd favorite given his wife's struggle with cancer, was great against Boston. Henrik Lundqvist had the worst season of his career, but turned back the clock five years against Montreal. Looking deeper at the Senators roster, they probably should have done better than they did. They have one of the league's premier players in Erik Karlsson - who was outrageously good against Boston - and a nice stable of forwards. The Rangers? Well they are right where they should be. They'll probably never admit to feeling happy to be #4 in the Metro division and moved into this part of the bracket, but it is working out perfectly.

The Matchup: One way to look at the series is which goalie remains hot. Anderson has always been very up or down. Lundqvist played at a higher level in the playoffs than he had all season. Both have a likelihood of slipping. However, I could write "which goalie plays better?" for all series. Beyond the masked men, the Senators were more impressive top to bottom in the first round. Erik Karlsson, despite his two heel fractures, was insane. Derick Brassard - former Ranger - was solid. Bobby Ryan turned back the clock as well. Even older depth guys like Dion Phaneuf and Clarke McArthur were great. They can now match the Rangers depth better than I would have thought. The Rangers were not nearly as good on paper against Montreal, but have some advantages. They are very fast - which the Senators first round opponent most certainly was not - and they have a huge edge on the power-play. The Rangers depth at forward can hurt the back-half of the Senators roster. The series will come down to, more-so than the goalies, if the Rangers 3rd/4th lines can outplay Ottawa's by a greater margin than the Sens top-two lines can outplay New York.

Random Stat/Memory/Factoid on the Series: The last time these two met in the playoffs was when the 8th seeded Senators took the top-seed Rangers to 7 games in 2012. That series was not beyond much controversy, including Carl Hagelin getting a three game suspension for elbowing Daniel Alfredsson in the head, and the Senators responding with Zenin Konopka punching Brady Boyle in the face. Fun times!

The Pick: I'm going with Ottawa for a few reasons. First, I have more faith in Anderson to retain the first round performance than Hank. Second, the Senators top guys are firing on all cylinders right now. Third, their bad special teams is less of an issue in the playoffs - and the Rangers aren't great on special teams, just merely better than Ottawa. And finally, I don't want a Metro Division team to win the Atlantic Division playoffs. It will happen eventually, and this is only 1% of the reason I am picking Ottawa, but still let's not go there yet.

Senators in 6

Metropolitan Division

(M1) Washington Capitals (118 pts) vs. (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins (111 pts)

State of the Teams: It's the series everyone wants - and once again they are the two best teams in hockey. Now, people said that last year - I heard a lot of 'this is the real Stanley Cup Final' when they met. But this time they were literally by point total the two best teams in hockey. They are deep, fast, a great mix of youth and experience. The Capitals had the best overall season by a team in some time. The Penguins had the best offensive season by a team in some time. Both teams are fairly healthy, though missing key pieces. The Penguins overcame these absences more easily than I expected, but not having Kris Letang will be a bigger issue against Washington's great depth. Similarly, any continued absence of Karl Alzner for the Caps will pose the same challenges. Like always, the Penguins start with Crosby and Malkin, who are both in great form in the playoffs again. Especially Malkin, who had an insane 11 points in the 5-game win over CBJ. Crosby is turning randoms into stars again (Jake Guentzel). Kessel is performing as per usual. And now Marc-Andre Fleury is doing his best Matt Murray impression - and I imagine he stays in net until they falter, if that even happens. The Capitals actually got good performances from all their key pieces in the first round. Justin Williams remains playoff dynamite. Kuznetsov was far more engaged this year. Their issue seems to be the back-end and Holtby struggling in the playoffs for the second straight year. Key issues if you are playing the best offensive team in a half-decade.

The Matchup: I've never bought into curses or one team owning an other. That often is true until it is not. That said, how can you overlook the way these two have played in the playoffs. Of course, the 'Penguins great in the playoffs' story is just a year old, as prior to 2016, most people considered them playoff chokers ever since their Cup win in 2009. In the regular season, the Capitals were 2-0-2, winning by huge margins (7-1, 5-2) and losing twice in OT (including a class 8-7 Penguins win). The key in those games was the Capitals depth outskating the relatively slower Penguins, and also awful performances by Matt Murray, who may not factor in this series. The Capitals have on paper the deeper team, but I am starting to worry about Holtby. He was not that good in the playoffs last year and had huge issues against the Penguins. Fleury seems in a much more calm state than he used to be. The Penguins power-play was phenomenal in the first round, and the Capitals took too many penalties. This is the best Capitals team to play the Penguins in the playoffs, but let's remember this is also the same team that needed to go to OT in five games against an average Toronto team. I would think the injuries on Pittsburgh's side (Hagelin is out, Kunitz is iffy to come back) will hurt them against a deeper team. But it really is ever hard to trust the Capitals is it?

Random Stat/Memory/Factoid on the Series: I've heard a lot of complaints this year on the new playoff format, with essentially two divisional tournaments in each conference with potential for Wild Cards to shuttle between divisions. I've heard those complaints renewed when these two have to play each other. But let's remember in the preceding format (3 divisions), this would be the #1 seed vs. #4 seed as the division winners were seeded #1-3.

The Pick: That said, I have to pick Washington. Part of this is simply that I want it. I want to see Ovi win the Cup so he never has to hear that he can't again. But I also think they are just better. The Capitals are more or less as good as Pittsburgh on offense. They are far better on defense. They have, on paper, the edge in goal though they desperately need Holtby to step up his level. They have home ice. They are healthier. Now, most of these statements were equally true last year and the Pens got them in 6, but this is a better Capitals team and that series last year basically came down to Holtby getting outplayed by Murray. I don't think that happens this time.

Capitals in 7

Western Conference

Central Division

(C3) St. Louis Blues (99 pts) vs. (C-WC) Nashville Predators (94 pts)

State of the Teams: If ever there was a poster-child series to the cliche that the teams that enter the playoffs hot wins, it is this one. Both of these two teams were among the league's largest disappointments for much of the season. The Blues almost indicated they were giving up on the season when they traded away Shattenkirk, and had a goalie in Jake Allen who was lost. The Predators were everyone's darlings in the preseason and were mired around .500 for much of the year. And now they meet in the 2nd round. The Predators are doing this mostly by just being the team everyone thought they should be. They have a great core of young forwards (Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen the stars in the group) and a ridiculous top-4 on defense (Subban, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis). And now they are getting vintage Pekka Rinne (3 goals allowed against Chicago). They had the potential to dominate possession with their puck moving defenseman and speed up front. The Blues made their run by basically getting Jake Allen to find himself. Their skaters aren't playing markedly better, and other than adding Vladimir Sobotka back to the mix, it's mostly the same group playing at the same level that got Ken Hitchcock fired. Turns out when you get Vezina-level goaltending from February onwards you can go on a nice run. Better yet when that run continues in the first round.

The Matchup: The Blues were massively outplayed on the ice against the Wild apart from goalie. Devin Dubnyk wasn't actually that bad for Minnesota, but Allen was heroic. And yet, I don't even know if we can give the Blues the edge in goal in this series given how good Rinne was. In many ways, the Predators are similar to the team that the Blues just beat. They have the same deep forward crew the Wild did. If anything the Predators are better on the blue-line. It is sad they sleep-walked through the regular season, but it is clear this is not the same Nashville team. The Blues will have to depend on getting a lot of non 5v5 time in the series, as they were very good on both the PP and PK, but very much average 5v5. The Predators are basically the opposite. That tends to work better in the playoffs when penalties are called at a much reduced rate. Jake Allen apparently got into a much better mental state once Brodeur became more involved, but again there is no indication he's even better than Rinne - though Rinne's brilliance only dates back to this series as he was very average throughout the regular season. Neither team has much injury concerns at this point, so we should get both teams close to their best. It just seems now that the Predators have found their best, it is as impressive as well thought it was going to be.

Random Stat/Memory/Factoid on this Series: This is the 4th year of the new playoff format, and the 3rd time the Central Division will have the #3 seed play the #4 seed. In the first two iterations, that #3 seed was Chicago, so it was more understandable (they beat St. Louis in 2014 and Nashville in 2015). In fact, in general out of the 16 matchups we've gotten so far in the 2nd round, there have been just 7 between the top two seeds in their division, and four of those have come in the Metro which has so far always been 1v2.

The Pick: It became fairly obvious, but I'm going with Nashville here. The Predators we see now are playing so much better than a 94 point team. They are playing like the team we all expected them to be, with the added bonus of having vintage Pekka Rinne. That last part is crucial because the Blues won in the first round essentially only due to Jake Allen being ridiculous. Well, there is no clear indicator they'll have the goalie matchup here. The Blues will need a lot of penalties called to keep this close, which I can't really see happening. Plus, after seeing the Blues win the division last year, would be nice for the other snake-bit Central Division team to join them this time around.

Predators in 6

Pacific Division

(P1) Anaheim Ducks (105 pts) vs. (P2) Edmonton Oilers (103 pts)

State of the Teams: This might be my favorite second round series. The Ducks have been my pet team for a while now. The Oilers should be everyone's favorite team right now as we can enjoy them before Connor McDavid replaces Sidney Crosby as the league's best player leading to anti-Oiler sentiment becoming pervasive. The two teams play enjoyable hockey - that Ducks/Flames series was underrated in its manic nature and was fully enjoyable despite being a sweep. The Oilers were probably my favorite home atmosphere in round 1, and now their fans can legitimately have Stanley Cup Final aspirations. Both teams are healthy. The Oilers have barely anyone on the injury report. The Ducks have loads, including all their three key defenseman (Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen) but all three are expected to play in Game 1. This should be a good one. The Ducks were derided for replacing Boudreau with old-school Randy Carlyle, but the team has done really well under him, didn't mutiny like everyone expected, and have gone 15-0-3 dating back to the regular season. The Oilers have more young talent than anyone (including Toronto), have the league's MVP who is only 20, and are just a joy to watch given their free-wheeling nature. Again, this should be a good one.

The Matchup: Much like the Blues and Oilers, the Ducks were relatively disappointing for much of the year before turning it on late. Unlike those two teams, people expected the Ducks to be slightly disappointing. However, they still have tons of talent on the team, with two premier, if entering their post-prime phase, forwards on the top-line, a great 2nd line (Kesler-Silfverberg-Cogliano) and those three talented puck-moving defensemen. John Gibson also had a really nice season in net. The Oilers on the other hand have the top-flight guys we know about, but have shown more depth and more non-Connor McDavid sourced scoring in these playoffs, even mixing and matching lines to spread out their top guys across the lines rather than concentrate on one (splitting up McDavid and Draisaitl has done wonders). Both teams are similar 5v5, as the Ducks have never been a possession-hungry team, and they have opposing specials strengths (Oilers great PP, Ducks great PK). The Ducks have the more known goalie but they were basically equally good this season. As shown by their point totals as well, not much separating these two.

Random Stat/Memory/Factoid on the Series: The last time the Oilers made the playoffs, they beat the Ducks in the Western Conference Finals on their way to that miracle Cup Final appearance in '06. While the Ducks lost the series in 5, that was the breakout for them in a post-Babcock world, with it being the first taste for Getzlaf and Perry (2nd liners back then). The Ducks would then steal the Oilers best player (Pronger) and win the Cup the next year. In the 10 years after they met in '06 (2006-07 through 2015-16), the Ducks made the playoffs eight times, including winning a Cup and making another Western Conference Finals appearance. The Oilers on the other hand won the lottery four times.

The Pick: Ultimately, I favor the Ducks. The Oilers are just not deep enough, and the Ducks 2nd line has as good a shot as any defensive-leaning line in the playoffs left to slow McDavid. If that forces Edmonton to join McDavid and Draisaitl together it will only amplify the lack of options the Oilers have. The Ducks also have a large edge on the blue-line assuming the key three are back and healthy. Whatever edge the Oilers have on PP is neutralized by both the general lack of penalties and the Ducks strong PK. The Ducks are not a great team, and the Oilers are definitely faster, but I do think it isn't time for them just yet.

Ducks in 6

Monday, April 24, 2017

Bye, Bye Blackhawks

By the end of it, they looked slow and old and, more than anything, tired.

The Blackhawks were swept aside, this from a team that had never gone away without a fight. This isn't the first time the Blackhawks have lost in the playoffs, in this run as a modern dynasty. But the first time they looked outmatched, and outworked. They lost in 7 games to a, frankly, better team in 2011, but there they came back from 0-3 down to force a game 7 against the President's Trophy winners, and even forced OT in that Game 7 before Vancouver finally beat them. That was the height of the Blackhawks fight, forcing a Game 7 with probably the worst team in this run.

The next year they lost in 6 to the then Phoenix Coyotes, but four of the games went to OT. In 2014, they fought back from 1-3 down to force Game 7 against the LA Kings, and while they somewhat blew Game 7 (they were up 2-0 and 3-2 in the game), they lost to the team that won the Cup. And then last year again down 3-1, again forcing a Game 7 against St. Louis. The Blackhawks have been very good for a long time. They were a dynasty, becoming something the league tried to marshal away during the 2005-06 lockout. They did it anyway, and now it is over.

For the first time, the Blackhawks did not have any answers. Their lack of depth has been a problem for a while, but in the past their stars could make up for it, and they would summon 3-4 imports and random rookies and have them contribute more than anyone could expect. The vets struggled, the rookies even moreso. In the end, the Blackhawks bag of tricks was empty and crinkled as the Predators feasted on the older, tired, shallow Hawks in four quick games.

When the Blackhawks won the 2010 Stanley Cup they were something of a superteam. They brought in a bunch of veterans to supplement a ridiculously good young core (the same core that would headline the team ever since). That was a great risk but a brilliantly calculated one. The Hawks knew how good, and how cheap, their core was at that moment so they brought in free agent after free agent (Andrew Ladd, Brian Campbell, John Madden, Thomas Kopecky, Brent Sopel, and on and on) to provide ridiculous depth. That team cruised, and then they had to face the music for the first time with a summer cap crunch immediately following that forced all of those names along with other homegrown talents (Dustin Byfuglein, Troy Brouwer) out the door. The Hawks had to rebuild.

Of course, rebuilding is easier when you have the core they did, and while it took them a couple years to shore up the depth, when they did the Hawks had the most dominant season we've seen. It was a lockout season so the dominance was hidden, but the 2012-13 Blackhawks got 71 points in 48 games - a pace for 131 which would be the most in the post-lockout NHL. They had their core at a perfect age, a new wave of younger, cheaper but sitll great depth (Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw, Nick Leddy, etc.) and that wave crested that year and the next where they came so close to making back-to-back Cup Finals (and in all probability back-to-back Cups). The team that won in 2014-15 was mostly the same, but now with a more glaring depth problem (especially on the blueline) washed over by a still in-their-prime core group. That third Cup was the one that was most 'won' by the stars. And that lies their biggest problem: those stars aren't good enough any more to mask holes.

There were seven players on all three Blackhaws cup teams. The names float easily off the tongue for most hockey fans: Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson. Six of the seven are still here - with Patrick Sharp sacrificed after the 2015 Cup Win to Dallas. Those six are all great players. They include four guys that are essentially locks for the Hall of Fame (Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith), and another that may make it with a pro-Blackhawks bias (Seabrook) and another quality player (Hjalmy). However, the biggest issue with the Blackhawks come down to these three lists of numbers:

Jonathan Toews: 28, 10.5 MM, through 2022-23

Patrick Kane: 28, 10.5 MM, through 2022-23

Marian Hossa: 38, 5.3 MM, through 2020-21

Duncan Keith: 33, 5.5 MM, through 2022-23

Brent Seabrook, 31, 6.9 MM, through 2022-23

Niklas Hjalmarsson: 29, 4.1 MM, through 2018-19

Those six players, the six guys that were (Hossa aside) youngsters for Cup #1, square in their primes for Cup #2, and about to leave their primes for Cup #3, are now at a point where their salaries will start outmatching their production, and the length of the deals along with the hefty price tag will make it really hard for the Blackhaws to reload like they have in the past. This was a calculated risk to keep this core together, and in some cases overpay for long-term contracts partly to reward the key guys that made this renaissance possible. It is always hard to fault that approach from a moral point of view, but when a team has no money to get additional players in it puts a huge onus on player development, one area the Blackhawks have struggled mightily in.

Player development as much as the key seven won the Blackhawks the 2012-13 Stanley Cup, and for Saad and Terevainen, the 2014-15 Stanley Cup. But now, with those guys shipped out as cap casualities (with very little in return), the Hawks had to try to do it again and it didn't work. This was especially stark on the blue-line, with Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson looking tired at best or old at worst. In truth, the Blackhaws defense core was 3-deep in 2014-15 as well, but two years is a big difference - the difference between Keith in his prime to starting his decline.

The Blackhawks are not going to be a bad team next year. They will almost assuredly make the playoffs, and while they may not be the playoff favorite again, there is enough good players on the team to catch some luck and win Cup #4. It's not like they are markedly worse than some of the teams still alive in the playoffs, it is just they caught the wrong team fast enough and deep enough to expose them.

The Predators should be lauded for finally being the team we all expected them to be in the playoffs. When they brought in Subban adding him to an already great back-line (Josi, Ekholm, Ellis are all great defenseman) the Predators on paper appeared to be one of the best teams - goalies excluded. In many ways, the current Predators are a close match for the old Blackhaws, with great depth on the blue-line and deep, young talent on offense. Mostly through trade, the Predators have collected a great, deep roster that is young, fast, skilled, and while Pekka Rinne can easily turn back into regular-season Rinne next round, this team should be the favorite in any series until the Cup Final.

The Blackhawks were able to resurrect hockey in Chicago, show the league a dynasty is still possible in the post-lockout NHL, and set a stellar leading example of how to play calm, collected playoff hockey. My favorite stat for all time will be that from 2010-2015, 8 times the Blackhaws found themselves tied 2-2 in a series. Their record in the remaining games: 16-1. The Blackhawks did some unbelievable things, and participated in some of the best series I've seen in the last half-decade or so - the 2010 2nd Round against Vancouver, the 2013 2nd round against Detroit, the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals win against Boston, the 2014 Conference Final against LA, the 2015 Conference Final against Anaheim, the 2015 Stanley Cup Final against Tampa, last year's 1st round loss to St. Louis. All great series, all great moments provided by those guys in Chicago.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe their next set of development players turns out to be as good as the Saad/Shaw/Teravainen group. Maybe Stan Bowman pulls off some magic in the trade market, or gets someone to take one of the contracts. Maybe another year without two-and-a-half months of playoffs will help an aging, but still extremely talented core, rest up. But if not, if that was the end, it was a great ride.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs: 1st Round Picks

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

(A1) Montreal Canadiens (103 pts) vs (EW2) New York Rangers (102 pts)

I for one am really glad that the Canadiens did end up with one more point than the Rangers. It would have been a little much if all four Metro Division playoff teams finished ahead of all four Atlantic division teams. The Rangers were a very good team for most of the season, essentially equal to the other three Metro division powerhouses, but tailed off somewhat over the second half to finish with a +36 goal differential. Of course, that is still a good 10 goals better than Montreal, as the Rangers offense had a great year (Top 5 in goals). The Canadiens begin and end with Carey Price period. Nothing is that great about the team apart form Price. Their supposedly next set of stars all struggled with Alex Galchenyuk having a middling 44 points in his 61 games and guys like Gallagher (29 pts), Shaw (29) and Danault (40) all doing the same despite playing a majority of the season. In the end, the Canadiens are their goalie – and Carey Price is really good. The Rangers used to be the team as recently as just two years ago who would enter any playoff series with the edge in goal. That is no longer.

The Rangers are a deep offense with quality across all four lines and great team speed (something that used to be said of Montreal fairly recently as well), but Henrik Lundqvist struggled in posting his worst season of his career. The .910 save % is not great, but the 2.74 GAA is even worse. Backup Antti Raanta far outperformed him and it will be interesting to see if Alain Vigneault, a man not unfamiliar to goalie switching in the playoffs, moves to Raanta if Hank struggles. The Rangers are the better team on paper with better performance from their four lines and more depth on defense, and neither team has any real edge on special teams. In the end, though, it is hard to go against a team with a large edge in goal.

Pick: Canadiens in 6

(A2) Ottawa Senators (98 pts) vs (A3) Boston Bruins (95 pts)

Let’s get this out of the way early, the Senators are the worst team in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs. They are the only one with a negative goal differential. They are the worst offensive team in the playoffs. Their defense depends on Erik Karlsson keeping the puck for all the minutes he is on ice and Craig Anderson performing miracles. The Bruins are living a charmed life, as the Maple Leafs loss on the last day of the season gave Boston this slot, an eminently more beatable opponent than what Toronto now gets to face (Washington). The Senators have a few nice spots, including the continued brilliance of Erik Karlsson who logged another 71 points in 77 games and continues to be underrated for his actual defensive abilities. Their top three forwards (Hoffman, Turris, Stone) all had nice years. And of course, Craig Anderson remains great. However, they have no discernable skills beyond these things, being both below-average on the PP and PK, and from a possession standpoint not too great 5v5 either.

The Bruins, on the other hand, parlayed a shockingly great season from Brad Marchand (85 pts – way above anything he’s done in his career), a breakout season from 20-year old David Pastrnak (70 points), and the continued brilliance of Patrice Bergeron into a really nice bounceback season from a team that missed the playoffs each of the past two years and fired their coach midseason. Tuukka Rask showed signs of slippage, but the Bruins did a good enough job limiting shots that it didn’t really matter as he ended up with a perfectly acceptable 2.23 GAA despite being below average in both general save percentage and quality save percentage (.493 – anything below .5 is considered bad). The Bruins were both above average in the PP and PK as well. Basically, they are way better top to bottom aside from goalie and the difference here is nowhere near as large as it was between Montreal and New York. Despite all of this, the only reason I am skeptical in the Bruins is the fact that they underperformed all these peripheral stats and performances and ended up with just 95 points. Still, gotta use my head when every indicator points to Boston.

Pick: Bruins in 6

Metropolitan Division

(M1) Washington Capitals (118 pts) vs (EW2) Toronto Maple Leafs (95 pts)

The Capitals were a juggernaut last year. They scored 252 goals and allowed just 193, for a league-leading goal differential of +59. If we are being honest, the Capitals were better this year. They scored 11 more goals, allowed 11 fewer, for a goal differential of +81. They were #3 in goals, and #1 in goals allowed. They had an above average power-play (4^th in %) and penalty-kill (7^th in %). Nicklas Backstrom had his usual great year (quietly 4^th in points). Evgeny Kuznetsov an Marcus Johansson had very nice years. The defense is deep. Kevin Shattenkirk came in and had 14 points in 19 games. Alex Ovechkin’s ‘down’ year consisted for 33 goals. Oh, and they may have the best goalie in the league, as Holtby finished with a tidy .925 save% and 2.07 GAA. The Capitals are really good.

The Maple Leafs are not. With the young talent they have, maybe they become the Capitals 5 years from now – but right now they just are not there. Now, they can probably match Washington’s offensive firepower. Auston Matthews had the most goals by any rookie since Ovie (40). Their other two precocious youngsters (20-year old Wille Nylander and 19-year old Mitch Marner) had matching 61 point seasons. And they have coach extraordinaire Mike Babcock living up to all his billing. Even if they were to get swept in embarrassing fashion, this season was a rousing success. But there is a chance they do get swept in embarrassing fashion. The goaltending, and defense as a whole, is brutal even if Frederik Andersen were not somewhat gimpy. Their special teams are good, but their 5v5 numbers are below average – and their opponent can easily attest to how important 5v5 is in the playoffs. Finally, Babcock himself has had really good teams flame out in the playoffs. This should not be a close series, and if the Capitals do struggle to put Toronto away, that is a major warning sign going forward.

Pick: Capitals in 5

(M2) Pittsburgh Penguins (111 pts) vs (M3) Columbus Blue Jackets (108 pts)

To me, this is easily the most exciting of the four Eastern Conference playoff series. Not only are these two so close to each other geographically, and not only is there some bad blood between the two teams, but add into it myriad interesting characters from John Tortorella’s triumphant return to the playoffs, to Sidney Crosby, to Crosby nag Brandon Dubinsky, and you may get something special. The Blue Jackets had such a bizarre season. They started off on a pace that was on track to make them one of the greatest teams of all time. Everyone decried this because no one expected it, and their early-season possession numbers were middling, and their depended too much on the power play. Then, the team struggled mightily for six weeks or so, getting passed by Washington for good and then trading spots with the rest of the Metro powerhouses, and then, like magic, they became good again. At the end, the Blue Jackets were fairly good in possession, were 6^th in goals scored, 2^nd in goals allowed, had their power-play drop to all the way to just above average, and became a team whose performance belied a really good team. And that is what they are. 19-year old Zach Werenski is a future star on the blue-line, and their young forwards all had nice seasons, from Cam Atkinson (62 points), Alexander Wennberg (59), Brandon Saad (53) and Sam Gagner (50). But the team ill go far if Sergei Bobrovsky can continue to be the beautiful star he used to be in 2013-14, and was again this year. Bob’s season was ridiculous, with a .931 sv% and a .651 quality-chance save percentage. The Blue Jackets are a good team with a great goalie.

The Pens are a great team with an ‘eh’ goalie, as Matt Murray had a nice year for a rookie (yup, technically he’s a rookie) but not a great year overall. Never mind, though, as the Penguins raced with 282 goals, the most scored by an NHL team in 7 years, since the Capitals scored 313 in 2009-10 (the year they got Halak-ed in the 1^st round). The Penguins did it in more ways than they used to as well. Crosby was great (44 goals and 89 points in 75 games), and Malkin was as good but he missed 20 games. So did Conor Sheary (53 points in 61 games). The slack was more than picked up elsewhere. The powerplay is great, and their continued ability to split their lines up keeps them as deep as the team that dominated last year. My biggest issue with the Penguins, and ultimately why I am picking them to lose, is the injuries. There’s no Carl Hagelin and no Chris Kunitz, two key Top-9 forwards for them. But worst is the lack of Kris Letang, who was dominant in the playoffs last year in possession. The Blue Jackets can somewhat match the depth of the Penguins now, and I can see a break-out series for Bobrovsky on the big stage.

Pick: Blue Jackets in 7

Western Conference

Central Division

(C1) Chicago Blackhawks (109 pts) vs (WW2) Nashville Predators (94 pts)

For years, the Blackhawks relatively underperformed in the regular season despite great peripheral numbers and then generally went really deep in the playoffs. For the first time in a while, they decided to outperform in the regular season. By no numbers are the Blackhawks a great team that should have had the best point total in the Western Conference. Yes, this was a down year in the West (109 pts wouldn’t have led the West in any recent year), but the Blackhawks are a team that finished 3^rd in the Central three straight years, not a team that cruised to 1^st place. The usual suspects all had great years (save for Toews), with Kane pouring in 89 points, Panarin having a nice encore performance, and Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook remaining great. The team is not deep however, and a team that can roll lines consistently has a really good shot of knocking them off. There’s no real explanation for the Blackhawks ending up with 109 points being merely good 5v5, and below average both on the PP and PK, and with both Crawford and Scott Darling having average seasons. Of course, the fact that this team normally plays better in the playoffs and is already the top seed in the West is quite scary.

The Predators are the anti-Blackhawks. They should have been better. They were everyone’s trendy Stanley Cup pick in the preseason after they added PK Subban to an already great blue-line, and had a deep set of forwards that can roll with anyone. Injuries and slow starts by Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen set them off course early but they rebounded to grab the final playoff spot (something everyone else’s preseason pick – Tampa Bay – just missed out on doing), but there’s no real indication that this is a team ready to flip the switch. Their top forwards are all young, but maybe a year away from truly breaking out (their top three point getters are 23, 24 and 22). Their defense is deep, and Subban seems to be healthy, but even their blueline can’t cover for a goalie who’s best days are years behind him. Pekka Rinne is just not a top flight goalie anymore, and while Juuse Saros is intriguing as his backup, that too is a long-term option. The Predators should have been better, and they should be better next year, but I don’t think there is some great team hiding in the 2016-17 vintage.

Pick: Blackhawks in 6

(C2) Minnesota Wild (106 pts) vs (C3) St. Louis Blues (99 pts)

In many ways, the fact that this matchup seems uninspiring speaks volumes about how sad the Central was this year. The Blues, Predators and Stars all seriously underperformed, and even the Wild dropped off from their ridiculous early-season pace to have a nice season. The Blues enter this series injured, on an already top-heavy roster, and still with questions in goal. They certainly improved once Ken Hitchcock was shown the door, but something still seems off on the team. Only Tarasenko (who’s really criminally underrated at this point), Jaden Schwartz and Alex Peitrangelo had anything resembling nice seasons. The largest red flag was the stagnation of Jake Allen. For years we were told he needed to be fully handed the reigns to succeed and now we see why the Blues were so hesitant to give him them. He was perfectly average, which behind a perfectly average team (12^th in both goals scored and allowed), the Blues don’t pose too much of a threat.

The Wild on the other hand will really test the theory of momentum. Their beginning of the season was absolutely phenomenal. At one point, the top four players in the NHL in +/- were Wild players. In the end, still three of the top four were (Zucker and Suter at +34 and Jared Spureon at +33). The team had a goal differential on pace to break +100. Even though they noticeably slowed down in the second half to the point they gave away what was once a huge division lead, the Wil remain a very deep, very good team. Eric Staal had a crazy bounceback year, all their young talent broke out together (24 year olds Granlund, Niederreiter and Coyle all had very good years). They don’t even have the red-flag hallmarks of the usual Boudreau teams like an unsustainably good powerplay (the Wild were just good on the PP). The biggest reason for their fall-off remains the only reason for skepticism (other than Boudreau’s past history), in that Devan Dubnyk regressed quite clearly in the 2^nd half of the season. He ended the year really well, but he was Bobrovsky level good in the 1^st half, and merely Tuuka Rask good in the 2^nd. Now, in this matchup they still have the goalie edge, but this could doom them later on.

Pick: Wild in 5

Pacific Division

(P1) Anaheim Ducks (105 pts) vs (WW1) Calgary Flames (94 pts)

The Ducks won the Pacific Division the first three years it existed in its current state. Because of playoff failures they fired Bruce Boudreau, hired old-school Randy Carlyle, and ended up winning the Pacific again. They maybe had the quietest 105 point season I have ever seen. The Carlyle hiring was much derided, but the Ducks continued to be what they are. They have one great forward (Getzlaf – another quiet 73 points in 74 games), a few great defenseman (though Cam Fowler’s injury hurts them, and will become more significant if they advance and he is still out), and an overall deep, large team that can tighten up when they need to. The Ducks started slow but ended great, and John Gibson put a hammer-lock on the starting job. The biggest red flag is how the players that normally wither away in the playoffs fare this time around. The pickup of Patrick Eaves has been a great under-the-radar move to add even more depth to an already deep forward group. If they can continue to roll lines the Ducks should be fine – especially in this matchup.

I was wrong when I said the Blues were the most average playoff team – the Flames are. The ywere 15^th in Goals Scored, and 16^th in Goals Allowed, with a differential of +5. The Flames are an average team. Like Nashville, they will likely be very good in a couple years as Gaedreau and Monahan continue to develop, and as Dougie Hamilton grows into the Norris-level player he can be (50 points and a +12 was a good start this year). But their depth is a serious issue – exacerbated by the disappearance of Sam Bennett this season. They have the team speed to give Anaheim problems, but outside of that it is hard to see where they have any edges. They’ve relied on PP and PK excellence to mask serious deficiencies 5v5, and that gets exposed like nothing else in the playoffs (as the Ducks can attest to from previous seasons), and finally their goaltending is unlikely to steal anything. The Western Conference may end up giving us great drama, but nothing is pointing to that at this point.

Pick: Ducks in 5

(P2) Edmonton Oilers (103 pts) vs (P3) San Jose Sharks (98 pts)

The Oilers may seem to be on paper to the Western Conference’s answer to the Maple Leafs, the team that crashed the playoff party way before anyone was ready for them to, but the Oilers are in reality a fairly good team. Their offense may be top-heavy, but when that top is the NHL’s scoring leader and likely MVP in Connor McDavid, another precocious young center with 77 more points (Leon Draisaitl), and a few other really nice pieces playing in front of the surprisingly-good Cam Talbot, that can add up to a 103-point season where the team probably should have won the admittedly soft Pacific. What’s more is that they are fully healthy, and have been for essentially the full year. There is only two areas to poke and prod at: their lack of depth beyond the top two lines (RNH did not have a very good year) and their reliance on the PP which usually spells doom in the playoffs.

The Sharks are the anti-Oilers, the team that has, outside of Chicago, more playoff experience with this core than any other. I’m going to assume Thornton plays, but even if he does, his play finally started showing some signs of slippage this year (he is 37 after all). The future can’t be too bright on a team with so many key cogs being 32 or older, and it’s never a good sign when a defenseman leads your team in goals and assists (admittedly, Brent Burns is fantastic), but experience should matter, right? Really, that’s the only reason I am picking the Sharks here. This team is a worse version of the one that made the Stanley Cup Final last year, but their relative depth (compared to Edmonton), and better 5v5 performance are advantages. Finally, I don’t like when a team plays its starting goalie so many games, and the 73 that Talbot played are glaringly high.

Pick: Sharks in 6