Friday, March 31, 2017
Thursday, March 30, 2017
30 Things I'm Looking Forward To in the 2017 MLB Season (Part 2)
I'm looking forward to...
... Living in a Clayton Kershaw world. What Kershaw is continuing to do is put together a run of pitching seasons that deserve to be alongside Maddux, Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. We had that foursome at their best in more or less the same time in the mid-90's through the early-00s. We haven't had a pitcher since reach that level consistently. Halladay had a few years that were great, but not near the level of those four, same with Johan Santana, and Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, etc. Kershaw is better than all those guys. He probably should have won teh Cy Young in 2015 over Arrieta, with a 300 strikeout season, something I thought was undoable in the innings-limited modern era. He keeps pushing his ERAs lower and lower, and last year may have been his best. What he does is so insane, so ridiculously insane.
... Enjoying the random regional broadcasts. There is a separate point on the brilliance of MLB.tv as a package, but here I wanted to focus on the broadcasters themselves. Baseball seasons are endless, with so many dreamy, stolid nights in June-August where these announcers become your friends. I feel the quality of baseball announcing at the local (team-specific) level is at a far different, and in my opinion, better level than any other sport. Getting to watch random Giants games or Mariners games, or Indians games, or Royals games and watch these random 60 men do great work is a blessing.
... Seeing if the Verlander Renaissance becomes a multi-year production. Let's be real, Justin Verlander probably deserved the Cy Young over Rick Porcello. I thought we were past the days where a gaudy W-L record could beat out being better in nearly every other facet of pitching. Anyway, Verlander had a great comeback season after fairly average 2014-15 seasons with 250 Ks in 227 innings. From July through the end of the season, he threw 123 innings of 1.98 ERA ball, holding batters to a .184/.239/.323 slash line, with 147 Ks to 29 BBs. That is prime Verlander stuff. After cratering in his age 30-32 seasons, I don't think many expected that in the Age 33. If anything, he should get worse this upcoming year, but I for one found his revival one of the great, hidden stories of 2016 and am desperately hoping it continues into 2017.
... Watching the sausage race a couple of times. I'm being serious here, the sausage race in Milwaukee's Miller Park is one of the great traditions in the sport. It is something so incredibly unique to that area, to that team, to that fanbase. Plus, it is, and will always be, hilarious. The sausage race is never not funny. Every now and then, some choreographed stuff happens to make it even better, like a player getting involved or some inter-sausage sheninegans. Long live the sausage race!
... Seeing if the Orioles can beat the analytics again. The Orioles ever since their great run to the playoffs in 2012, have habitually outperformed the analytic projections and even their own expected record based on their performance. The Orioles have done it mixing an odd combination of boatloads of home runs from varying imported sluggers (Nelly Cruz, Chris Davis), terrible starting pitching, great bullpen performances (don't tell Buck Showalter though that he should use such an advantage in a Wild Card Game type setting) and a few homegrown stars like Matt Weiters and Manny Machado. The Orioles, as usual, are projected to go around .500. Of course, they were last year when they went 89-73 and lost the Wild Card game. They were three years ago when they went 94-68, and who knows maybe they can do it again.
... Watching Max Scherzer spit hot fire a few times a year. No one since maybe prime Verlander can feel so dominant as Max Scherzer. Now, Kershaw has him beat in 'actually' being more dominant, but Scherzer at his best is an incredible experience. In 2015, he threw two no-hitters, and another game that was about as good as a no-hitter (complete game, 1-hit shutout with 16 Ks). He followed that up with a Cy Young season that featured a 20-strikeout game. Scherzer had 284 Ks. Again, Kershaw topped this in 2015, but Scherzer's gas just seems more dominant, more untouchable, more exciting.
... Hoping that Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy and bomb away. Watching Giancarlo a few times a year really get into one where it flies out at the speed of an Aroldis Chapman home run, with a ridiculously high arc deep into the outfield seats is one of the great moments of joy in the game. Many scouts and baseball analysts have been asked to name the single best tool anyone possesses in MLB, and the answer almost always in Giancarlo's power. He's played 123-116-145-74-119 games the last five years. The one year he had the 145 games? He was 2nd in MVP voting and jacked 37 HRs. He actually had a more ridiculous year in 2015, hitting 27 HRs in his 74 games (slugging .606). The Marlins are an awful franchise, but with Jeffrey Loria finally giving up and looking to sell, things may be finally brighter in Miami, and Giancarlo staying healthy would make it as bright as possible.
... Seeing if the Rockies can actually turn the corner. It has been a strange last 10 years of baseball in Colorado. They made a World Series trip to start the decade in 2007 with a young core that should have dominated. They made another Wild Card run in 2009, but have done nothing since. The centerpiece is gone with the Toluwitzki trade. Carlos Gonzalez is still around but the Rockies have a nice new core. Nolan Arenado is the star, but they have DJ LeMahieu who was a 5-win player last year, and Trevor Story who started the year with an insane first couple weeks but still ended up decent after inevitably not hitting 324 home runs. And that is just hte infield. The real area for optimism is the rotation that has, Coors-field adjusted, an ace performer in Jon Gray. I've been to Denver. Coors Field is beautiful. That team should be better because Denver should be a baseball town. It was for Rocktober in 2007, and a decade later maybe they are back?
... Watching Buster Posey hit and catch. Yes, I'll admit I have something of a man crush on Buster Posey. I've been a fan of the Giants revival mainly because I loved watching Tim Lincecum pitch, and then they went and got Hunter Pence in 2012 and he became an integral and loved part of the '12 and '14 Title teams. But Buster was my favorite. First off, he's a great hitter, especially for a catcher. Last year was the worst hitting year of his career, but still had a 112 OPS+. He has such a smooth, compact swing. The real joy is watching him catch, though. Pitch Framing became a huge cause celebre in the stats community the past two years, and he is the active God of it. They haven't figured a way to put it into WAR yet, but the rumor is if they do, guys like Posey would be some of the most valuable players in baseball. His 2016 may be the beginning of the end of Posey as a great hitter (he just turned 30), and he may at some point be moved off to 1st base, but as of now, he's still a joy to watch on both sides.
... Not caring about the Phillies, Twins and Padres. I tried to think of which team I hadn't really talked about yet, and these are the three that came to mind. I then tried to think if I had anything to say about them, and the answer in the end was essentially that no, I do not. These are three bad teams, that are aggresively boring without much to actually care about. The Phillies and Twins have some decent prospects, but we've heard that for a few years and there are worse off teams with better prospects. None of them have discussed implementing some crazy idea or new way of playing. There's really no reason to care about any of them.
... Enjoying every single aspect of the MLB.tv product. Online/App-based league packages have essentially replaced the TV versions to become the standard for all mass sports watching. Out of these, including DirecTV Sunday Ticket Online (which of course is still limited to DirecTV customers or anyone in a city where they may not be able to get a dish), NBA's LeaguePass and NHL's Center Ice, MLB.tv is by far the clubhouse leader. Crystal-clear quality. Access to both home and away TV adn Radio announcing. Very easy to discern quad-box watching. MLBAM (MLB Advanced Media) is a powerhouse that has even started going into other sports having essentially redesigned the NHL Center Ice package to match what MLB.tv is, and you can understand why other sports may want to jump on board.
... The Home Run Derby without Chris Berman. I'm a huge proponent of the home run derby as an event. Out of all the skills competitions that various sports attempt to put on each year at their respective all-star games, the Home Run Derby is by design the simplest and the best. What has kept it from reaching the mountaintop as the great event it should be was the presence of Chris Berman and his gratingly annoying 'back, back, back, back, back x100' awfulness. With Berman gone they can put in the hands of someone more sedate and let the Derby speak for itself. The new timed round format is brilliant, and while last year at Petco wasn't as great as Todd Frazier's win in Cincinnati in 2015, I have high hopes for the 2017 vintage, especially if it involves Gioncarlo Stanton going long in Miami.
... Imbibing endless, endless, endless baseball. I give extreme credit to the baseball world for accepting the beauty of the regular season. Other than the strange anti-Kershaw-cuz-he-chokes crowd, baseball fans generally accept that playoff performance has very little to do with your recognition. No one doesn't call Mike Trout the best player in baseball because he's only made the playoffs once. I feel a lot of this is due to just how long the baseball season. The length of the season may seem overwhelming for non-baseball fans, but for those who love the game, nothing is better. There is no better feeling that in June, 80 days into the season, there are still 100 more days to go.
... Watching Albert Pujols pursuit of 600 Home Runs. Yes, he is playing on an albatross of a contract. Yes, watching him hack away these days is sad. But this man ruined my life to the point I became in awe of him. Prime Albert Pujols was terrifying at the plate, with a perfect, powerful swing. Out of the guys that are in the 600 HR club, few preceded my time, three are clouded by steroids (Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa), and two I only really got to enjoy during the end of their careers (Thome, Griffey). Pujols is different. I remember him as a rookie. I remember him turning my life into a nightmare in the 2005 NLCS Game 5. I remember him hitting three home runs in Game 5 of the 2011 World Series. Sure, he's been a relative disappointment in LA, but when he reaches 600, he'll have the 2nd highest batting average and 3rd highest slugging percentage of anyone in that club. The only guys above him are Messers Ruth and Bonds. He was a generational player. He is still having a generational career.
... Enjoying the Astros. Of course this was going to be #30. The Astros are by most analytic forecasts, fairly clear division favorites. Their offense is either the best or 2nd best in MLB (Boston is the only other contender for that title on paper). Their offense is crazy, with last year's #3 MVP finisher Jose Altuve (still just 27), George Springer (when healthy an all-star level player), super-prospect Alex Bregman, and imports in Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick. If Cuban import Yulieski Gourriel works out they can be terrifying. Of course the centerpiece is Carlos Correa, who is still just 22. Take away any potential call-ups this year, and out of the whole set of great young players in baseball, he is the youngest. Most GM and front-office types consider him the guy with the most potential in that whole group. If he reaches it, and one day he will, the Astros will me ridiculous. Let's hope, for my sanity at least, that it happens.
... Living in a Clayton Kershaw world. What Kershaw is continuing to do is put together a run of pitching seasons that deserve to be alongside Maddux, Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. We had that foursome at their best in more or less the same time in the mid-90's through the early-00s. We haven't had a pitcher since reach that level consistently. Halladay had a few years that were great, but not near the level of those four, same with Johan Santana, and Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, etc. Kershaw is better than all those guys. He probably should have won teh Cy Young in 2015 over Arrieta, with a 300 strikeout season, something I thought was undoable in the innings-limited modern era. He keeps pushing his ERAs lower and lower, and last year may have been his best. What he does is so insane, so ridiculously insane.
... Enjoying the random regional broadcasts. There is a separate point on the brilliance of MLB.tv as a package, but here I wanted to focus on the broadcasters themselves. Baseball seasons are endless, with so many dreamy, stolid nights in June-August where these announcers become your friends. I feel the quality of baseball announcing at the local (team-specific) level is at a far different, and in my opinion, better level than any other sport. Getting to watch random Giants games or Mariners games, or Indians games, or Royals games and watch these random 60 men do great work is a blessing.
... Seeing if the Verlander Renaissance becomes a multi-year production. Let's be real, Justin Verlander probably deserved the Cy Young over Rick Porcello. I thought we were past the days where a gaudy W-L record could beat out being better in nearly every other facet of pitching. Anyway, Verlander had a great comeback season after fairly average 2014-15 seasons with 250 Ks in 227 innings. From July through the end of the season, he threw 123 innings of 1.98 ERA ball, holding batters to a .184/.239/.323 slash line, with 147 Ks to 29 BBs. That is prime Verlander stuff. After cratering in his age 30-32 seasons, I don't think many expected that in the Age 33. If anything, he should get worse this upcoming year, but I for one found his revival one of the great, hidden stories of 2016 and am desperately hoping it continues into 2017.
... Watching the sausage race a couple of times. I'm being serious here, the sausage race in Milwaukee's Miller Park is one of the great traditions in the sport. It is something so incredibly unique to that area, to that team, to that fanbase. Plus, it is, and will always be, hilarious. The sausage race is never not funny. Every now and then, some choreographed stuff happens to make it even better, like a player getting involved or some inter-sausage sheninegans. Long live the sausage race!
... Seeing if the Orioles can beat the analytics again. The Orioles ever since their great run to the playoffs in 2012, have habitually outperformed the analytic projections and even their own expected record based on their performance. The Orioles have done it mixing an odd combination of boatloads of home runs from varying imported sluggers (Nelly Cruz, Chris Davis), terrible starting pitching, great bullpen performances (don't tell Buck Showalter though that he should use such an advantage in a Wild Card Game type setting) and a few homegrown stars like Matt Weiters and Manny Machado. The Orioles, as usual, are projected to go around .500. Of course, they were last year when they went 89-73 and lost the Wild Card game. They were three years ago when they went 94-68, and who knows maybe they can do it again.
... Watching Max Scherzer spit hot fire a few times a year. No one since maybe prime Verlander can feel so dominant as Max Scherzer. Now, Kershaw has him beat in 'actually' being more dominant, but Scherzer at his best is an incredible experience. In 2015, he threw two no-hitters, and another game that was about as good as a no-hitter (complete game, 1-hit shutout with 16 Ks). He followed that up with a Cy Young season that featured a 20-strikeout game. Scherzer had 284 Ks. Again, Kershaw topped this in 2015, but Scherzer's gas just seems more dominant, more untouchable, more exciting.
... Hoping that Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy and bomb away. Watching Giancarlo a few times a year really get into one where it flies out at the speed of an Aroldis Chapman home run, with a ridiculously high arc deep into the outfield seats is one of the great moments of joy in the game. Many scouts and baseball analysts have been asked to name the single best tool anyone possesses in MLB, and the answer almost always in Giancarlo's power. He's played 123-116-145-74-119 games the last five years. The one year he had the 145 games? He was 2nd in MVP voting and jacked 37 HRs. He actually had a more ridiculous year in 2015, hitting 27 HRs in his 74 games (slugging .606). The Marlins are an awful franchise, but with Jeffrey Loria finally giving up and looking to sell, things may be finally brighter in Miami, and Giancarlo staying healthy would make it as bright as possible.
... Seeing if the Rockies can actually turn the corner. It has been a strange last 10 years of baseball in Colorado. They made a World Series trip to start the decade in 2007 with a young core that should have dominated. They made another Wild Card run in 2009, but have done nothing since. The centerpiece is gone with the Toluwitzki trade. Carlos Gonzalez is still around but the Rockies have a nice new core. Nolan Arenado is the star, but they have DJ LeMahieu who was a 5-win player last year, and Trevor Story who started the year with an insane first couple weeks but still ended up decent after inevitably not hitting 324 home runs. And that is just hte infield. The real area for optimism is the rotation that has, Coors-field adjusted, an ace performer in Jon Gray. I've been to Denver. Coors Field is beautiful. That team should be better because Denver should be a baseball town. It was for Rocktober in 2007, and a decade later maybe they are back?
... Watching Buster Posey hit and catch. Yes, I'll admit I have something of a man crush on Buster Posey. I've been a fan of the Giants revival mainly because I loved watching Tim Lincecum pitch, and then they went and got Hunter Pence in 2012 and he became an integral and loved part of the '12 and '14 Title teams. But Buster was my favorite. First off, he's a great hitter, especially for a catcher. Last year was the worst hitting year of his career, but still had a 112 OPS+. He has such a smooth, compact swing. The real joy is watching him catch, though. Pitch Framing became a huge cause celebre in the stats community the past two years, and he is the active God of it. They haven't figured a way to put it into WAR yet, but the rumor is if they do, guys like Posey would be some of the most valuable players in baseball. His 2016 may be the beginning of the end of Posey as a great hitter (he just turned 30), and he may at some point be moved off to 1st base, but as of now, he's still a joy to watch on both sides.
... Not caring about the Phillies, Twins and Padres. I tried to think of which team I hadn't really talked about yet, and these are the three that came to mind. I then tried to think if I had anything to say about them, and the answer in the end was essentially that no, I do not. These are three bad teams, that are aggresively boring without much to actually care about. The Phillies and Twins have some decent prospects, but we've heard that for a few years and there are worse off teams with better prospects. None of them have discussed implementing some crazy idea or new way of playing. There's really no reason to care about any of them.
... Enjoying every single aspect of the MLB.tv product. Online/App-based league packages have essentially replaced the TV versions to become the standard for all mass sports watching. Out of these, including DirecTV Sunday Ticket Online (which of course is still limited to DirecTV customers or anyone in a city where they may not be able to get a dish), NBA's LeaguePass and NHL's Center Ice, MLB.tv is by far the clubhouse leader. Crystal-clear quality. Access to both home and away TV adn Radio announcing. Very easy to discern quad-box watching. MLBAM (MLB Advanced Media) is a powerhouse that has even started going into other sports having essentially redesigned the NHL Center Ice package to match what MLB.tv is, and you can understand why other sports may want to jump on board.
... The Home Run Derby without Chris Berman. I'm a huge proponent of the home run derby as an event. Out of all the skills competitions that various sports attempt to put on each year at their respective all-star games, the Home Run Derby is by design the simplest and the best. What has kept it from reaching the mountaintop as the great event it should be was the presence of Chris Berman and his gratingly annoying 'back, back, back, back, back x100' awfulness. With Berman gone they can put in the hands of someone more sedate and let the Derby speak for itself. The new timed round format is brilliant, and while last year at Petco wasn't as great as Todd Frazier's win in Cincinnati in 2015, I have high hopes for the 2017 vintage, especially if it involves Gioncarlo Stanton going long in Miami.
... Imbibing endless, endless, endless baseball. I give extreme credit to the baseball world for accepting the beauty of the regular season. Other than the strange anti-Kershaw-cuz-he-chokes crowd, baseball fans generally accept that playoff performance has very little to do with your recognition. No one doesn't call Mike Trout the best player in baseball because he's only made the playoffs once. I feel a lot of this is due to just how long the baseball season. The length of the season may seem overwhelming for non-baseball fans, but for those who love the game, nothing is better. There is no better feeling that in June, 80 days into the season, there are still 100 more days to go.
... Watching Albert Pujols pursuit of 600 Home Runs. Yes, he is playing on an albatross of a contract. Yes, watching him hack away these days is sad. But this man ruined my life to the point I became in awe of him. Prime Albert Pujols was terrifying at the plate, with a perfect, powerful swing. Out of the guys that are in the 600 HR club, few preceded my time, three are clouded by steroids (Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa), and two I only really got to enjoy during the end of their careers (Thome, Griffey). Pujols is different. I remember him as a rookie. I remember him turning my life into a nightmare in the 2005 NLCS Game 5. I remember him hitting three home runs in Game 5 of the 2011 World Series. Sure, he's been a relative disappointment in LA, but when he reaches 600, he'll have the 2nd highest batting average and 3rd highest slugging percentage of anyone in that club. The only guys above him are Messers Ruth and Bonds. He was a generational player. He is still having a generational career.
... Enjoying the Astros. Of course this was going to be #30. The Astros are by most analytic forecasts, fairly clear division favorites. Their offense is either the best or 2nd best in MLB (Boston is the only other contender for that title on paper). Their offense is crazy, with last year's #3 MVP finisher Jose Altuve (still just 27), George Springer (when healthy an all-star level player), super-prospect Alex Bregman, and imports in Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick. If Cuban import Yulieski Gourriel works out they can be terrifying. Of course the centerpiece is Carlos Correa, who is still just 22. Take away any potential call-ups this year, and out of the whole set of great young players in baseball, he is the youngest. Most GM and front-office types consider him the guy with the most potential in that whole group. If he reaches it, and one day he will, the Astros will me ridiculous. Let's hope, for my sanity at least, that it happens.
Monday, March 27, 2017
30 Things I'm Looking Forward To in the 2017 MLB Season (Part 1)
I'm looking forward to....
... watching the Cubs and their fans slowly turn into the post-2004, pink-hat wearing Red Sox. The Cubs great run to the World Series was amazing. It was nice to see octogenerians sobbing with their children in joy after they won. That's all well and good. Now that the curse and all that is in the past, they can take their rightful place next to the Red Sox. I'm very sure the Cubs are going to monetize every last cent out of this ring - as is their right - but with that comes the very real endpoint of pink-hat wearing Cubs fans that couldn't name anyone from the 2003 team that last ripped their hearts out.
... enjoying the defensive wizardry of some of the games best, whether on MLB.tv, or Vine, or twitter or anything else. Already my juices got flowing for this with Javier Baez's insane no-look tag on the World Baseball Classic (which was fantastic up until the dud of a final), one that was so perfectly performed that Baez started celebrating and pointing to Yadier Molina before the ball even reached him. Along with Baez are great defensive wizards like Francisco Lindor and Andrelton Simmons at shortstop, Kevin Keirmaeir in the outfield, and so many others. I'm sure fans of the Ozzie Smith days would disagree, but this seems like the best defensive era in MLB history.
... tracking if home runs continue to go up. One of the more famous stories of the 2016 season was the sudden spike in home runs. This actually started in the 2nd half of the 2015 season and was reported on a small scale at the time. 2016 upped the trend and got a lot of theorists out there. The most commonly accepted theories seemed to be a slight change to the ball and a change in swing path (more uppercut) around the league. It has to be something slight as overall offense was more or less the same, but home runs were way up. If it is was the ball, I'm interested to see if that continues on into 2017.
... Seeing if Mike Trout can make it 6 for 6 in being the best player in the AL. At some point the general public will wake up to the fact that we have a Willie Mays / Mickey Mantle level supernova on our hands, a guy who is every bit as good as the pre-steroid Barry Bonds. Trout could, if not should, have five MVPs right now (though I hold that it is quite easy to argue for Josh Donaldson winning in 2015) from his five full seasons in baseball, and in only one of those seasons, 2015, was he not the MLB leader in WAR (Bryce Harper was that year - more on him in a bit). Trout's team is bad, though has some strange sleeper buzz, but he himself is appointment TV. At some point he may get hurt, or get slightly worse, or get passed by one of the young superstars, but there is a path where this continues for ten more years and he is rightfully seen as the heir to Mays/Mantle as the best all-around player we've ever seen.
... Compiling evidence of the continued shift in pitching strategies. It's been a few years now that the baseball analytics cognoscenti has hailed the idea that a starting pitcher should never pitch the 4th time through an order. That has been whittled down to teams going with 3rd time through the order, with teams like the Rays and potentially Rockies jumping on board. Coupled with that is the rise of the super reliever, which seems to have reached national prominence with the way Andrew Miller was used by the Indians. There are enough super reliever types out there to get this going leaague-wide. Certainly, it will be sad to see starting pitcher stats fall off in a volume perspective, but seeing the rise of these super relievers, like Miller, or potentially guys like even Matt Harvey (if he's slow to recover from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery) would be a great journey to follow.
... Counting down the 58 more hits Adrian Beltre needs for 3,000. I guess I'm supposed to be anti-Rangers given they are a manufactured division rival of the Astros, but I can't help but love Adrian Beltre. His whole career has been so strange. He was a good but not great player for a number of years, then had an insane 2004 season with 48 HR and 9.5 WAR and immediately went back to being the 3-5 WAR player he always was. Of course, then in 2010 he went to Boston, had a 7.8 win season, and has been between 5.5-7.5 ever since. He's now a sure-fire first ballot hall of famer, with numerous joyful plays including some insane defensive stops and throws at 3rd. The 3,000 hits milestone may be passe in 2017, but to me it is still cool to see someone so damn good reach this mark.
... Seeing which division race actually gets competitive. Each of the six divisions have a clear favorite in Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Washington, Chicago (Cubs, obviously), and Dodgers. Some are more clear than others, with the Cubs and Dodgers being heavy favorites, and the other four just moderately strong favorites. There seem to be known challengers as well, but baseball is never that easy to predict. Someone we don't think of will make a run. Very often that team ends up falling off around August, but still, if Arizona, or Milwaukee, or Miami, or the LA Angels, or Tigers or Rays make a run, the sport will be better off for it.
... Watching the Mariners be relevant. Now, they were somewhat relevant last year when they won 87 games, but the Mariners enter this season with significant wild card buzz from the baseball pursists and stat-heads alike. The trade for Jean Segura gives them three all-star caliber infielders in Segura, Cano and Seager. The outfield centers mostly around defense, which is needed in that beautiful but cavernous stadium. Their pitching always looks better on paper because of the home field, but this is an aggressive strategy to compile a bunch of #2-3 guys (sadly Felix is this now), but it should work. The Mariners have a beautiful ballpark, great uniforms, and baseball will be better off if October baseball returns to the Pacific Northwest
... Identifying what crazy thing that one of the bad teams throws at the wall sticks. Baseball is the sport that has their teams try more analytically-driven crazy tactics than any others. The Astros were the first team to start shifting like crazy back in the days when they used to suck hard. The Rockies went with a 6-man rotation a few years back. My favorite random idea was when the Reds went with all rookie starting pitchers in 2015 to see if any of them could stick. One of these bad teams is going to try something, and it will be great
... Saying goodbye to the early-to-mid-2010s revivals. The early part of this decade saw the rebirth of the Pirates and Royals, two franchises that had been bad for a good 20 years before they made the playoffs in 2013 and 2014 respectively. The Pirates were the top wild card team three years straight. The Royals made it to back-to-back World Series. Let me repeat: the Kansas City Royals won the AL pennant two years in a row. Both started their drop back last year and it may continue this year. Reports are the trading of top players for prospects may begin in both places, with guys like Andre McCutcheon and Alex Gordon on the market. It will be sad, but we'll always have those memories.
... Tracking the Mets pitching path to fit six pitchers into five slots. The Mets still have a bevy or ridiculously good, ridiculously cheap pitching talent. Now, pitching talent is always a gamble, and while the got blackjack in 2015 when they made it to the world series by winning an NLCS by sweeping the Cubs on the back of their pitchers, in 2016 all of their top guys got hurt at some point in time. On the face, the Mets have two of my favorite pitchers to watch in Syndegaard (probably ready for a huge breakout) and DeGrom (who might be my favorite pitcher to watch). Add to that hopefully healthy Matt Harvey and Steven Matz and you get the core that dominated the Cubs. Now add Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman and you get a team with legitimately six starters ranging from precocious prospects to potentially best pitcher in baseball (Thor). The Mets upside is so high, and if they hit it, it will be so fun to watch it happen
... The progression of the White Sox, Yankees and Braves prospects. These three teams are seemingly the owners of half the Top 50 prospects in baseball, and all have ones that may come up this year and flash something. The White Sox got a ton back for Chris Sale (deservedly) and we may see Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech (he of the 105 MPH fastball) this year. The Yankees stockpiled to the hilt last year and while their top guys may be further away, getting a full year of Gary Sanchez would be fun. Finally, the Braves are terrible but are maybe 2-3 years away from being really good and the first signs of that will be this year.
... Watching Madison Bumgarner face off against Clayton Kershaw. I'll have a specific one about Kershaw in part 2, but let's just say any start of his is worth watching. But add in Bumgarner, who seems to take special pride in going up against Kershaw, and you get must-watch baseball. Shout-out to the Giants and Dodgers for figuring out a way to lineup their rotations to get these two against each other fairly often. Kershaw and the Dodgers have had the upper-hand, but it is close, and Bumgarner's twirled a few gems in their head-to-head. Also, this matchup has the added advantage of watchign Bumgarner bat against Kershaw - he's hit a HR off Kershaw two straight years. Kershaw is the best pitcher of this generation and an all-timer. Bumgarner is not at that level, but he could be a HOFer (he's just in his age-27 season). Let's enjoy these while we still can.
... Seeing if Bryce Harper can rebound. Bryce Harper has seemingly been on the MLB landscape for 10 years now, ever since he was on the cover of SI as a 16 year old. For the most part, he's fulfilled the high-end projection if anyone were to guess where his career would be at this point. He's won an MVP, in a ridiculous season where at age 23 he had the best relative to league average batting season anyone has had since peak-Bonds. He had a 198 OPS+, with a .460 OBP and .649 SLG. The only guys since Bonds that sniffed these numbers were peak-Pujols and Miggy, who at their best were all-time great hitters. Of course, he surrounded that 10.0 WAR season with two years that combined 2.6. Career trajectories aren't always linear or static. Most people that have 10.0 WAR seasons don't have those again. But most don't drop to 1.6 either. Harper still had the plate patience and still has all the physical gifts. He's good enough to have had a season where he legitimately was better than Mike Trout. Baseball would be a lot better off if he got back to that level, even if most of that is because he's a perfect lightning rod anyway.
... Watching the growing superstars continue to grow. The league has maybe never been this stocked with such good, young talent. Obviously, Trout leads this pack - and he's still young at just 26. But then you get Harper (24), Bryant (25), Machado (24), Nolan Arenado (25), Francisco Lindor (23), Corey Seager (23), Javier Baez (24), Kyle Schwarber (24), Mookie Betts (24), Xander Bogaerts (24) and Carlos Correa (22). This crop of players already are really good if not MVP-level great. The league is so well stocked right now it is crazy. By the way, my favorite part of that list: the youngest guy is Carlos Correa.
... watching the Cubs and their fans slowly turn into the post-2004, pink-hat wearing Red Sox. The Cubs great run to the World Series was amazing. It was nice to see octogenerians sobbing with their children in joy after they won. That's all well and good. Now that the curse and all that is in the past, they can take their rightful place next to the Red Sox. I'm very sure the Cubs are going to monetize every last cent out of this ring - as is their right - but with that comes the very real endpoint of pink-hat wearing Cubs fans that couldn't name anyone from the 2003 team that last ripped their hearts out.
... enjoying the defensive wizardry of some of the games best, whether on MLB.tv, or Vine, or twitter or anything else. Already my juices got flowing for this with Javier Baez's insane no-look tag on the World Baseball Classic (which was fantastic up until the dud of a final), one that was so perfectly performed that Baez started celebrating and pointing to Yadier Molina before the ball even reached him. Along with Baez are great defensive wizards like Francisco Lindor and Andrelton Simmons at shortstop, Kevin Keirmaeir in the outfield, and so many others. I'm sure fans of the Ozzie Smith days would disagree, but this seems like the best defensive era in MLB history.
... tracking if home runs continue to go up. One of the more famous stories of the 2016 season was the sudden spike in home runs. This actually started in the 2nd half of the 2015 season and was reported on a small scale at the time. 2016 upped the trend and got a lot of theorists out there. The most commonly accepted theories seemed to be a slight change to the ball and a change in swing path (more uppercut) around the league. It has to be something slight as overall offense was more or less the same, but home runs were way up. If it is was the ball, I'm interested to see if that continues on into 2017.
... Seeing if Mike Trout can make it 6 for 6 in being the best player in the AL. At some point the general public will wake up to the fact that we have a Willie Mays / Mickey Mantle level supernova on our hands, a guy who is every bit as good as the pre-steroid Barry Bonds. Trout could, if not should, have five MVPs right now (though I hold that it is quite easy to argue for Josh Donaldson winning in 2015) from his five full seasons in baseball, and in only one of those seasons, 2015, was he not the MLB leader in WAR (Bryce Harper was that year - more on him in a bit). Trout's team is bad, though has some strange sleeper buzz, but he himself is appointment TV. At some point he may get hurt, or get slightly worse, or get passed by one of the young superstars, but there is a path where this continues for ten more years and he is rightfully seen as the heir to Mays/Mantle as the best all-around player we've ever seen.
... Compiling evidence of the continued shift in pitching strategies. It's been a few years now that the baseball analytics cognoscenti has hailed the idea that a starting pitcher should never pitch the 4th time through an order. That has been whittled down to teams going with 3rd time through the order, with teams like the Rays and potentially Rockies jumping on board. Coupled with that is the rise of the super reliever, which seems to have reached national prominence with the way Andrew Miller was used by the Indians. There are enough super reliever types out there to get this going leaague-wide. Certainly, it will be sad to see starting pitcher stats fall off in a volume perspective, but seeing the rise of these super relievers, like Miller, or potentially guys like even Matt Harvey (if he's slow to recover from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery) would be a great journey to follow.
... Counting down the 58 more hits Adrian Beltre needs for 3,000. I guess I'm supposed to be anti-Rangers given they are a manufactured division rival of the Astros, but I can't help but love Adrian Beltre. His whole career has been so strange. He was a good but not great player for a number of years, then had an insane 2004 season with 48 HR and 9.5 WAR and immediately went back to being the 3-5 WAR player he always was. Of course, then in 2010 he went to Boston, had a 7.8 win season, and has been between 5.5-7.5 ever since. He's now a sure-fire first ballot hall of famer, with numerous joyful plays including some insane defensive stops and throws at 3rd. The 3,000 hits milestone may be passe in 2017, but to me it is still cool to see someone so damn good reach this mark.
... Seeing which division race actually gets competitive. Each of the six divisions have a clear favorite in Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Washington, Chicago (Cubs, obviously), and Dodgers. Some are more clear than others, with the Cubs and Dodgers being heavy favorites, and the other four just moderately strong favorites. There seem to be known challengers as well, but baseball is never that easy to predict. Someone we don't think of will make a run. Very often that team ends up falling off around August, but still, if Arizona, or Milwaukee, or Miami, or the LA Angels, or Tigers or Rays make a run, the sport will be better off for it.
... Watching the Mariners be relevant. Now, they were somewhat relevant last year when they won 87 games, but the Mariners enter this season with significant wild card buzz from the baseball pursists and stat-heads alike. The trade for Jean Segura gives them three all-star caliber infielders in Segura, Cano and Seager. The outfield centers mostly around defense, which is needed in that beautiful but cavernous stadium. Their pitching always looks better on paper because of the home field, but this is an aggressive strategy to compile a bunch of #2-3 guys (sadly Felix is this now), but it should work. The Mariners have a beautiful ballpark, great uniforms, and baseball will be better off if October baseball returns to the Pacific Northwest
... Identifying what crazy thing that one of the bad teams throws at the wall sticks. Baseball is the sport that has their teams try more analytically-driven crazy tactics than any others. The Astros were the first team to start shifting like crazy back in the days when they used to suck hard. The Rockies went with a 6-man rotation a few years back. My favorite random idea was when the Reds went with all rookie starting pitchers in 2015 to see if any of them could stick. One of these bad teams is going to try something, and it will be great
... Saying goodbye to the early-to-mid-2010s revivals. The early part of this decade saw the rebirth of the Pirates and Royals, two franchises that had been bad for a good 20 years before they made the playoffs in 2013 and 2014 respectively. The Pirates were the top wild card team three years straight. The Royals made it to back-to-back World Series. Let me repeat: the Kansas City Royals won the AL pennant two years in a row. Both started their drop back last year and it may continue this year. Reports are the trading of top players for prospects may begin in both places, with guys like Andre McCutcheon and Alex Gordon on the market. It will be sad, but we'll always have those memories.
... Tracking the Mets pitching path to fit six pitchers into five slots. The Mets still have a bevy or ridiculously good, ridiculously cheap pitching talent. Now, pitching talent is always a gamble, and while the got blackjack in 2015 when they made it to the world series by winning an NLCS by sweeping the Cubs on the back of their pitchers, in 2016 all of their top guys got hurt at some point in time. On the face, the Mets have two of my favorite pitchers to watch in Syndegaard (probably ready for a huge breakout) and DeGrom (who might be my favorite pitcher to watch). Add to that hopefully healthy Matt Harvey and Steven Matz and you get the core that dominated the Cubs. Now add Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman and you get a team with legitimately six starters ranging from precocious prospects to potentially best pitcher in baseball (Thor). The Mets upside is so high, and if they hit it, it will be so fun to watch it happen
... The progression of the White Sox, Yankees and Braves prospects. These three teams are seemingly the owners of half the Top 50 prospects in baseball, and all have ones that may come up this year and flash something. The White Sox got a ton back for Chris Sale (deservedly) and we may see Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech (he of the 105 MPH fastball) this year. The Yankees stockpiled to the hilt last year and while their top guys may be further away, getting a full year of Gary Sanchez would be fun. Finally, the Braves are terrible but are maybe 2-3 years away from being really good and the first signs of that will be this year.
... Watching Madison Bumgarner face off against Clayton Kershaw. I'll have a specific one about Kershaw in part 2, but let's just say any start of his is worth watching. But add in Bumgarner, who seems to take special pride in going up against Kershaw, and you get must-watch baseball. Shout-out to the Giants and Dodgers for figuring out a way to lineup their rotations to get these two against each other fairly often. Kershaw and the Dodgers have had the upper-hand, but it is close, and Bumgarner's twirled a few gems in their head-to-head. Also, this matchup has the added advantage of watchign Bumgarner bat against Kershaw - he's hit a HR off Kershaw two straight years. Kershaw is the best pitcher of this generation and an all-timer. Bumgarner is not at that level, but he could be a HOFer (he's just in his age-27 season). Let's enjoy these while we still can.
... Seeing if Bryce Harper can rebound. Bryce Harper has seemingly been on the MLB landscape for 10 years now, ever since he was on the cover of SI as a 16 year old. For the most part, he's fulfilled the high-end projection if anyone were to guess where his career would be at this point. He's won an MVP, in a ridiculous season where at age 23 he had the best relative to league average batting season anyone has had since peak-Bonds. He had a 198 OPS+, with a .460 OBP and .649 SLG. The only guys since Bonds that sniffed these numbers were peak-Pujols and Miggy, who at their best were all-time great hitters. Of course, he surrounded that 10.0 WAR season with two years that combined 2.6. Career trajectories aren't always linear or static. Most people that have 10.0 WAR seasons don't have those again. But most don't drop to 1.6 either. Harper still had the plate patience and still has all the physical gifts. He's good enough to have had a season where he legitimately was better than Mike Trout. Baseball would be a lot better off if he got back to that level, even if most of that is because he's a perfect lightning rod anyway.
... Watching the growing superstars continue to grow. The league has maybe never been this stocked with such good, young talent. Obviously, Trout leads this pack - and he's still young at just 26. But then you get Harper (24), Bryant (25), Machado (24), Nolan Arenado (25), Francisco Lindor (23), Corey Seager (23), Javier Baez (24), Kyle Schwarber (24), Mookie Betts (24), Xander Bogaerts (24) and Carlos Correa (22). This crop of players already are really good if not MVP-level great. The league is so well stocked right now it is crazy. By the way, my favorite part of that list: the youngest guy is Carlos Correa.
Monday, March 20, 2017
10 Thoughts Ahead of the Sweet 16 in 2017
1.) It makes perfect sense that after a disaster of a 1st round, with few upsets, even fewer competitive games, and the fewest opening day(s) drama that I've ever seen, we get an uber-competitive second round full of well played games (if again few dramatic finishes) and a nice set-up for a Sweet 16. I've long said that a great tournament is so rare to get from start to finish. There have been numerous great opening rounds with top seeds falling everywhere. We didn't get that here, with all sixteen Top-4 seeds getting out of the first round, but we got a few nice upsets in the 2nd round and a lot of fun ahead.
2.) Quick continuing tip of my cap to the NCAA for reducing the shot clock to 30 seconds two years back. The game is just immeasurably better with the reduced shot clock. So many games with scores into the 80's if not even higher. Maybe this is a confluence of a few different events, such as a lot of offense heavy teams still being alive but the tournament has been offense first and the teams themselves have executed with more sense and planning than normal.
3.) The East Region was shaping up to have a great finish, with a potential Elite 8 matchup of the defending champs at the #1 seed, and Duke at the #2 seed, battling it out in Madison Square Garden. Of course, both of those two teams get knocked out and we are left with absolute madness. Wisconsin after for years disappointing with Bo Ryan, is now a run of Final 4, Runner-Up, Sweet 16 (as a #7 seed) and Sweet 16 (as a #8 seed). A year after knocking out #2 seed Xavier, they played so well to knock off a team I really thought was impervious to an early upset. Wisconsin is really good (the Big 10 as a whole had a great first weekend), but now they get Florida (who just held a decent Virignia team to 35 points, and then get the winner of South Carolina (we'll get to Duke's killer in a bit) and Baylor, who continues to be the least respected team to make a handful of good tournament runs in recent years. I have no idea who will escape this region. I would favor Florida, but really, who knows?
4.) The West bracket is chalk city with the #1, #2 and #4 seeds all alive (Gonzaga, Arizona, West Virginia), and the only intruder is Xavier, who was a #2 seed last year and is the definition of a live dog. By the way, one of these four will be in the Final 4, and if you combine these four with the four I just mentioned in the previous point, one of them will play for the National Championship. If ever there was a year for either Mark Few's Gonzaga or Sean Miller's Arizona to break out, it is now when they have a clear path to not only the Final 4 but likely the Title Game. Even Xavier actually would be a great 'Cinderella' story for one of the most well respected programs to finally make the Final 4 as a disrespected #11 seed.
5.) I still can't get over both Villanova and Duke going down. For Duke, it was not an unfamiliar loss, as it had many similarities to their loss to Arizona in the 2011 Sweet Sixteen, when Duke got run out of the gym by a more athletic unit. The one difference is that team had a monster in Derrick Williams (before he turned into an uber-bust). I still can't fathom Duke giving up 65(!) points in teh second half. Frank Martin has done a really nice job building that South Carolina program. Duke had a clear path to another Final 4 with Villanova out of the way, and screwed it up. For a guy who has won 5 titles overall, and two in the last seven years, Duke has had a litany of early flameouts, not making it past the first weekend in: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014 and now 2017. As for Nova, their one year respite of not being early seed losers is gone, but I still found that the most surprising loss by the #1 overall seed since Kansas got stunned by Northern Iowa in 2010. This Villanova team was deep, experienced and so solid, and for them to get picked off in the 2nd Round still shocks me.
6.) That midwest region is well set-up for Kansas, but if anything that's when they've really struggled in the past. Louisville is gone, and the #3 seed in the region, Oregon, is missing one of their best players in Chris Boucher. Michigan is fine but still a #7 seed. Purdue is big and is an analytical-favored darling, but still, this should be Kansas's region to lose. Now, it was easily their region to lose in 2013 when Michigan picked them off in OT in the Sweet 16 (Michigan would end up in the National Title Game). That year, their #2 seed in the region (Georgetown) lost to Florida Gulf-Coast in the first round. In 2011, Kansas was the #1 seed with a #12, #11 and #10 in their region, and the #11, Shaka Smart's VCU, blitzed them from deep in the Elite 8. More about Kansas later, but while this draw looks really enticing, it never is as easy as it seems for them.
7.) This is probably year five or so of the Turner/CBS coordinated broadcast of March Madness, and I appreciate it more and more every year. Getting every game available live is just such a treat. Sure, it gets annoying juggling four channels and having to figure out where TruTV is each year, but you know what was worse? When you had to depend on CBS deciding to switch to the game that was best for you to watch as we did for a decade or so before this. The announcing teams are generally great (even if I still pour one out sadly for the Verne-Raftery duo). The halftime/pre-game/post-game teams are good - especially now that Charles and Kenny give 10% of a shit instead of zero. I'm all for this continuing for years and years and years.
8.) My word, that South Region just loaded up with blueboods, huh? Sure, Kentucky, and to a point, UNC, escaped in the 2nd round, but here we are with a mouthwatering Sweet 16 game of Kentucky vs. UCLA, with the Lonzo Ball and Friends show up against an always entertaining Kentucky group. And who does the winner most likely get? The one team that would like to run as much as either Kentucky or UCLA in UNC. The over/under for these games has to be 170 or so. Now, if a half-decade back taught us anything, it is to not disrespect Butler, and it is great to have them a live sleeper again, but the world wants Ball vs. UK and then Ball/UK vs UNC. Just give us this, please!
9.) As someone who has tertiarally followed Kansas for a while, this is the strangest brew yet. FOr years, they have plaed the tournament in a skittish, try-not-to-lose variety that was infuriating. In so many games they start out slow and cold and depend on their great defense to eventually wear teams out. This entire season has been something very different, a Kansas team defined by their guards, their tempo, their offense and not their defense, and they are looking like it through two tournament games. 190 points total. Bombing away from three. The combo of a potential Player of the Year in Frank Mason III and a top one-and-done prodigy in Josh Jackson is a title-winning combination. Kansas has easily been the most impressive team through two games, something very foreign for them, and while past Kansas teams have shown that can turn in any given cold five-minutes, this vintage just seems different.
10.) The Picks:
East:
(4) Florida beats (8) Wisconsin
(3) Baylor beats (7) South Carolina
(4) Florida beats (3) Baylor
West
(1) Gonzaga beats (4) West Virginia
(2) Arizona beats (11) Xavier
(2) Arizona beats (1) Gonzaga
Midwest
(1) Kansas beats (4) Purdue
(7) Michigan beats (3) Oregon
(1) Kansas beats (7) Michigan
South
(1) UNC beats (4) Butler
(3) UCLA beats (2) Kentucky
(3) UCLA beats (1) UNC
Final Four
(W2) Arizona beats (E4) Florida
(M1) Kansas beats (S3) UCLA
(M1) Kansas beats (W2) Arizona
2.) Quick continuing tip of my cap to the NCAA for reducing the shot clock to 30 seconds two years back. The game is just immeasurably better with the reduced shot clock. So many games with scores into the 80's if not even higher. Maybe this is a confluence of a few different events, such as a lot of offense heavy teams still being alive but the tournament has been offense first and the teams themselves have executed with more sense and planning than normal.
3.) The East Region was shaping up to have a great finish, with a potential Elite 8 matchup of the defending champs at the #1 seed, and Duke at the #2 seed, battling it out in Madison Square Garden. Of course, both of those two teams get knocked out and we are left with absolute madness. Wisconsin after for years disappointing with Bo Ryan, is now a run of Final 4, Runner-Up, Sweet 16 (as a #7 seed) and Sweet 16 (as a #8 seed). A year after knocking out #2 seed Xavier, they played so well to knock off a team I really thought was impervious to an early upset. Wisconsin is really good (the Big 10 as a whole had a great first weekend), but now they get Florida (who just held a decent Virignia team to 35 points, and then get the winner of South Carolina (we'll get to Duke's killer in a bit) and Baylor, who continues to be the least respected team to make a handful of good tournament runs in recent years. I have no idea who will escape this region. I would favor Florida, but really, who knows?
4.) The West bracket is chalk city with the #1, #2 and #4 seeds all alive (Gonzaga, Arizona, West Virginia), and the only intruder is Xavier, who was a #2 seed last year and is the definition of a live dog. By the way, one of these four will be in the Final 4, and if you combine these four with the four I just mentioned in the previous point, one of them will play for the National Championship. If ever there was a year for either Mark Few's Gonzaga or Sean Miller's Arizona to break out, it is now when they have a clear path to not only the Final 4 but likely the Title Game. Even Xavier actually would be a great 'Cinderella' story for one of the most well respected programs to finally make the Final 4 as a disrespected #11 seed.
5.) I still can't get over both Villanova and Duke going down. For Duke, it was not an unfamiliar loss, as it had many similarities to their loss to Arizona in the 2011 Sweet Sixteen, when Duke got run out of the gym by a more athletic unit. The one difference is that team had a monster in Derrick Williams (before he turned into an uber-bust). I still can't fathom Duke giving up 65(!) points in teh second half. Frank Martin has done a really nice job building that South Carolina program. Duke had a clear path to another Final 4 with Villanova out of the way, and screwed it up. For a guy who has won 5 titles overall, and two in the last seven years, Duke has had a litany of early flameouts, not making it past the first weekend in: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014 and now 2017. As for Nova, their one year respite of not being early seed losers is gone, but I still found that the most surprising loss by the #1 overall seed since Kansas got stunned by Northern Iowa in 2010. This Villanova team was deep, experienced and so solid, and for them to get picked off in the 2nd Round still shocks me.
6.) That midwest region is well set-up for Kansas, but if anything that's when they've really struggled in the past. Louisville is gone, and the #3 seed in the region, Oregon, is missing one of their best players in Chris Boucher. Michigan is fine but still a #7 seed. Purdue is big and is an analytical-favored darling, but still, this should be Kansas's region to lose. Now, it was easily their region to lose in 2013 when Michigan picked them off in OT in the Sweet 16 (Michigan would end up in the National Title Game). That year, their #2 seed in the region (Georgetown) lost to Florida Gulf-Coast in the first round. In 2011, Kansas was the #1 seed with a #12, #11 and #10 in their region, and the #11, Shaka Smart's VCU, blitzed them from deep in the Elite 8. More about Kansas later, but while this draw looks really enticing, it never is as easy as it seems for them.
7.) This is probably year five or so of the Turner/CBS coordinated broadcast of March Madness, and I appreciate it more and more every year. Getting every game available live is just such a treat. Sure, it gets annoying juggling four channels and having to figure out where TruTV is each year, but you know what was worse? When you had to depend on CBS deciding to switch to the game that was best for you to watch as we did for a decade or so before this. The announcing teams are generally great (even if I still pour one out sadly for the Verne-Raftery duo). The halftime/pre-game/post-game teams are good - especially now that Charles and Kenny give 10% of a shit instead of zero. I'm all for this continuing for years and years and years.
8.) My word, that South Region just loaded up with blueboods, huh? Sure, Kentucky, and to a point, UNC, escaped in the 2nd round, but here we are with a mouthwatering Sweet 16 game of Kentucky vs. UCLA, with the Lonzo Ball and Friends show up against an always entertaining Kentucky group. And who does the winner most likely get? The one team that would like to run as much as either Kentucky or UCLA in UNC. The over/under for these games has to be 170 or so. Now, if a half-decade back taught us anything, it is to not disrespect Butler, and it is great to have them a live sleeper again, but the world wants Ball vs. UK and then Ball/UK vs UNC. Just give us this, please!
9.) As someone who has tertiarally followed Kansas for a while, this is the strangest brew yet. FOr years, they have plaed the tournament in a skittish, try-not-to-lose variety that was infuriating. In so many games they start out slow and cold and depend on their great defense to eventually wear teams out. This entire season has been something very different, a Kansas team defined by their guards, their tempo, their offense and not their defense, and they are looking like it through two tournament games. 190 points total. Bombing away from three. The combo of a potential Player of the Year in Frank Mason III and a top one-and-done prodigy in Josh Jackson is a title-winning combination. Kansas has easily been the most impressive team through two games, something very foreign for them, and while past Kansas teams have shown that can turn in any given cold five-minutes, this vintage just seems different.
10.) The Picks:
East:
(4) Florida beats (8) Wisconsin
(3) Baylor beats (7) South Carolina
(4) Florida beats (3) Baylor
West
(1) Gonzaga beats (4) West Virginia
(2) Arizona beats (11) Xavier
(2) Arizona beats (1) Gonzaga
Midwest
(1) Kansas beats (4) Purdue
(7) Michigan beats (3) Oregon
(1) Kansas beats (7) Michigan
South
(1) UNC beats (4) Butler
(3) UCLA beats (2) Kentucky
(3) UCLA beats (1) UNC
Final Four
(W2) Arizona beats (E4) Florida
(M1) Kansas beats (S3) UCLA
(M1) Kansas beats (W2) Arizona
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
15 Thoughts on March Madness 2017
1.) Let's start out with me admitting that my knowledge of college basketball is incredibly limited, more so than usual as I probably watched only one game fully all year long and only bits and pieces of a dozen or so others. That said, the bracket seems to be fairly well balanced. There seems to be a consensus weakest region - the West where we have both the team seen as the weakest #1 seed (Gonzaga) and #2 seed (Arizona), but there does not seem to be a clear-cut strongest bracket. The South with UNC, Kentucky and UCLA probably takes that distinction, but none of them seem far tougher than the others. Each has a few premier programs, like Villanova and Duke out East, Kansas and Louisville in the Midwest, and the aforementioned trio in the South. There are some mouth-watering potential matchups.
2.) That said, we enter this tournament with arguably our best chance at a repeat since it last happened with Florida ten year's earlier. The last defending champ to enter the tournament with a #1 seed was Duke in 2011, but that was a very different team that probably didn't even deserve a #1 seed. Villanova was wire-to-wire one of the best teams in the country, returns their best players from last year's team, and went through this season with a singular focus that was very reminiscent of that great Florida team. I am excited about the prospects of them going for their place in history, especially with a potential Elite 8 matchup with Duke on the way.
3.) I think the world has to be excited that three of the most fast-paced teams in the tournament are all grouped together. The mouth waters at the prospect of a UCLA-Kentucky Sweet 16 matchup, and then the winner getting UNC, a team never known to avoid a shootout if needed. College Basketball had grown really slow and plaid but the decision to reduce the shot clock to 30 seconds did wonders, and started unshackling the teams. These three probably would have run in the old system anyway, but the tempo's been pushed around the nation and all three are leading the charge.
4.) There doesn't seem to be a lot of ballyhooed potential Cinderella's this year. The most talked about seem to the #10 seed Wichita State (also in that area with Kentucky/UCLA/UNC) but this is a team that made the Sweet 16 as recently as 2015 - the year after they entered the tournament undefeated - the year after they made the Final 4. Apart from that, last year's darlings Middle Tennessee State are now a 12 seed, which always seems like a good seed to make a run from. Anyway, the best Cinderella's are unexpected anyways. In recent years, we've seen a decent number of #14 seeds beat #3s and even a string of #15s beat #2s dating back to 2012. If we get one of those, even better.
5.) I still can't believe Northwestern had never made the tournament until now. I had heard of that stat previously, so it wasn't like it took me by surprise, but still to think of all the random podunk schools that had made the tournament, and that Northwestern had not. Honestly, the only thing separating Northwestern from a place like Duke is Coach K. Had someone like Coach K gone to Northwestern all those years back, maybe it is Duke who never makes the tournament. Anyway, maybe this is the start of something special for the Evanston school.
6.) Again, as someone who didn't really follow the sport too closely this year, there are some really interesting seeds. Minnesota as recently as last year was garbage, now they are a #5 seed? Seton Hall is somehow a #9 seed at-large team? Or how about South Carolina getting a decent seed from an SEC that most people think is a two-team conference (or maybe I am the only person who thinks that). The soft middle of the college basketball world truly is a fluid place.
7.) It is odd to see Xavier down at a #11 seed. For such an incredibly consistent program these past 15 years, including a trip to the Sweet 16 just two years ago, I was surprised to see them down at #11. They are up against a Maryland team that I've seen called overseeded, and also a #3 seed that at the very least Jay Bilas thought was way overseeded. Much like Syracuse last year as a #10 seed, I just had an immediate reaction when seeing the #11 by Xavier's name that they are still long for this world in 2017.
8.) I'll say this, we see time and time again how coaching matters more in college basketball, how the best coaches (or to be more skeptical, best recruiters) are the one's that keep winning. Well, if seeds hold and we get #1-vs-#2 in all four regions, we get the following coaching matchups: Jay Wright vs. Mike Krzyzewski, Mark Few vs. Sean Miller, Bill Self vs. Rick Pitino and Roy Williams vs. John Calipari. Three of the four matchups have coaches that have both won titles. In five of their cases they've been finalists as well. Few and Miller are probably the two best coaches nationally who haven't mad the final four. Coaching matters, as always.
9.) Another year, another Big 12 regular season title for Bill Self, and another #1 seed. This is the 7th time Kansas has gotten a #1 seed since 2007. In their previous six, they've lost in the 2nd round once (2010 - arguably their best team aside from 2008), the Sweet 16 once (2013, blowing a game they would lose in OT to Michigan), the Elite 8 three times (2007 to UCLA, 2011 to VCU and last year to Villanova), and then once winning the title. Yes, on the course of history, Self's Kansas teams have underachieved in March, but he gets another chance here to right that wrong. This is a good Kansas team with a great mix of veteran guards (a strong focus of the 2008 Title winning team as well), one great talent in one-and-done Josh Jackson, and some good role players. The team is easily good enough to win. Will they? I'm not sure, but I will likely pick them (those are coming in a minute).
10.) The fellating of the ACC continues, with UNC getting a #1 seed and Duke getting a #2 seed and most ESPN-ites complaining that Duke didn't get a #1 seed if not picking those two to meet in the Title Game (both Jay Bilas and Jay Williams did so). Of course, should we talk about how by record they are the worst two teams that got a Top-2 seed? That so much of their resume seems to be built off playing each other and a conference that is trumped up for no great reason? I get these are two blue blood programs, both with teams good enough to win the title, but it is sad to see year after year the bar for both of them to get as high a seed as possible is just lower than it is for other teams in the field.
11.) Picks for East Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) Villanova beats (4) Florida and (2) Duke beats (6) SMU
Elite Eight: (1) Villanova beats (2) Duke
12.) Picks for West Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) Gonzaga beats (5) Notre Dame and (2) Arizona beats (11) Xavier
Elight Eight: (2) Arizona beats (1) Gonzaga
13.) Picks for Midwest Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) Kansas beats (4) Purdue and (2) Louisville beats (6) Creighton
Elite Eight: (1) Kansas beats (2) Louisville
14.) Picks for South Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) UNC beats (4) Butler and (3) UCLA beats (10) Wichita State
Elite Eight: (3) UCLA beats (1) UNC
15.) Picks for Final 4
Semifinals: (E1) Villanova beats (W2) Arizona and (M1) Kansas beats (S3) UCLA
National Championship: (M1) Kansas beats (E1) Villanova
2.) That said, we enter this tournament with arguably our best chance at a repeat since it last happened with Florida ten year's earlier. The last defending champ to enter the tournament with a #1 seed was Duke in 2011, but that was a very different team that probably didn't even deserve a #1 seed. Villanova was wire-to-wire one of the best teams in the country, returns their best players from last year's team, and went through this season with a singular focus that was very reminiscent of that great Florida team. I am excited about the prospects of them going for their place in history, especially with a potential Elite 8 matchup with Duke on the way.
3.) I think the world has to be excited that three of the most fast-paced teams in the tournament are all grouped together. The mouth waters at the prospect of a UCLA-Kentucky Sweet 16 matchup, and then the winner getting UNC, a team never known to avoid a shootout if needed. College Basketball had grown really slow and plaid but the decision to reduce the shot clock to 30 seconds did wonders, and started unshackling the teams. These three probably would have run in the old system anyway, but the tempo's been pushed around the nation and all three are leading the charge.
4.) There doesn't seem to be a lot of ballyhooed potential Cinderella's this year. The most talked about seem to the #10 seed Wichita State (also in that area with Kentucky/UCLA/UNC) but this is a team that made the Sweet 16 as recently as 2015 - the year after they entered the tournament undefeated - the year after they made the Final 4. Apart from that, last year's darlings Middle Tennessee State are now a 12 seed, which always seems like a good seed to make a run from. Anyway, the best Cinderella's are unexpected anyways. In recent years, we've seen a decent number of #14 seeds beat #3s and even a string of #15s beat #2s dating back to 2012. If we get one of those, even better.
5.) I still can't believe Northwestern had never made the tournament until now. I had heard of that stat previously, so it wasn't like it took me by surprise, but still to think of all the random podunk schools that had made the tournament, and that Northwestern had not. Honestly, the only thing separating Northwestern from a place like Duke is Coach K. Had someone like Coach K gone to Northwestern all those years back, maybe it is Duke who never makes the tournament. Anyway, maybe this is the start of something special for the Evanston school.
6.) Again, as someone who didn't really follow the sport too closely this year, there are some really interesting seeds. Minnesota as recently as last year was garbage, now they are a #5 seed? Seton Hall is somehow a #9 seed at-large team? Or how about South Carolina getting a decent seed from an SEC that most people think is a two-team conference (or maybe I am the only person who thinks that). The soft middle of the college basketball world truly is a fluid place.
7.) It is odd to see Xavier down at a #11 seed. For such an incredibly consistent program these past 15 years, including a trip to the Sweet 16 just two years ago, I was surprised to see them down at #11. They are up against a Maryland team that I've seen called overseeded, and also a #3 seed that at the very least Jay Bilas thought was way overseeded. Much like Syracuse last year as a #10 seed, I just had an immediate reaction when seeing the #11 by Xavier's name that they are still long for this world in 2017.
8.) I'll say this, we see time and time again how coaching matters more in college basketball, how the best coaches (or to be more skeptical, best recruiters) are the one's that keep winning. Well, if seeds hold and we get #1-vs-#2 in all four regions, we get the following coaching matchups: Jay Wright vs. Mike Krzyzewski, Mark Few vs. Sean Miller, Bill Self vs. Rick Pitino and Roy Williams vs. John Calipari. Three of the four matchups have coaches that have both won titles. In five of their cases they've been finalists as well. Few and Miller are probably the two best coaches nationally who haven't mad the final four. Coaching matters, as always.
9.) Another year, another Big 12 regular season title for Bill Self, and another #1 seed. This is the 7th time Kansas has gotten a #1 seed since 2007. In their previous six, they've lost in the 2nd round once (2010 - arguably their best team aside from 2008), the Sweet 16 once (2013, blowing a game they would lose in OT to Michigan), the Elite 8 three times (2007 to UCLA, 2011 to VCU and last year to Villanova), and then once winning the title. Yes, on the course of history, Self's Kansas teams have underachieved in March, but he gets another chance here to right that wrong. This is a good Kansas team with a great mix of veteran guards (a strong focus of the 2008 Title winning team as well), one great talent in one-and-done Josh Jackson, and some good role players. The team is easily good enough to win. Will they? I'm not sure, but I will likely pick them (those are coming in a minute).
10.) The fellating of the ACC continues, with UNC getting a #1 seed and Duke getting a #2 seed and most ESPN-ites complaining that Duke didn't get a #1 seed if not picking those two to meet in the Title Game (both Jay Bilas and Jay Williams did so). Of course, should we talk about how by record they are the worst two teams that got a Top-2 seed? That so much of their resume seems to be built off playing each other and a conference that is trumped up for no great reason? I get these are two blue blood programs, both with teams good enough to win the title, but it is sad to see year after year the bar for both of them to get as high a seed as possible is just lower than it is for other teams in the field.
11.) Picks for East Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) Villanova beats (4) Florida and (2) Duke beats (6) SMU
Elite Eight: (1) Villanova beats (2) Duke
12.) Picks for West Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) Gonzaga beats (5) Notre Dame and (2) Arizona beats (11) Xavier
Elight Eight: (2) Arizona beats (1) Gonzaga
13.) Picks for Midwest Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) Kansas beats (4) Purdue and (2) Louisville beats (6) Creighton
Elite Eight: (1) Kansas beats (2) Louisville
14.) Picks for South Bracket:
Sweet Sixteen: (1) UNC beats (4) Butler and (3) UCLA beats (10) Wichita State
Elite Eight: (3) UCLA beats (1) UNC
15.) Picks for Final 4
Semifinals: (E1) Villanova beats (W2) Arizona and (M1) Kansas beats (S3) UCLA
National Championship: (M1) Kansas beats (E1) Villanova
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