Patience, Oakland, Patience

In one play, one second, one moment in time, a season went from one of the great stories in recent years to one of such loss and heartbreak. All it took was one play, one mistake from the tackle, one play when the QB who gets rid of the ball so quickly doesn't do that. From the second it happened, he knew it was over. Soon the team did as well. Derek Carr's season ended last Saturday, on Christmas Eve, a sullen lump of coal for all the silver-and-black clad fans that made Oakland rock again.

I'm a Raider fan. I was a Raider fan when I first started watching football. I was a Raider fan when I followed their 2002 Super Bowl team week to week. I was a silent Raider fan as they went through the roughest 7-year stretch (2003-2009) of any team nearly ever. I was less silent during their brief 'renaissance' in 2010-11 when they went 8-8 twice. I was even less silent as the rebuild went slowly at first, but there was no need to be silent this year. The Raiders are good, the Raiders are a playoff team. It's a cruel irony when they finally get back it will be without the one guy who can eventually make them great.

The 2016 Raiders were not a great team. There is no reason they should be 12-3 right now, full off of crazy wins, comebacks and two-point conversions. They really are about 10-5 good, but willed out two extra games. This was not a season that should end in a Super Bowl win, but they had a chance with Carr. They had a chance with an offense that could score anywhere (except against the Chiefs, apparently). They had a fearlessness that the late Al Davis would have admired. They breathed life into that hollowed-out stadium they still have to call home. It was a season of such joy, such amazement, such intrigue, washed away on one play. For us Raiders fans, that was the cruelest part, but now we must look forward, as that is still just as bright.

Climbing the ladder as a franchise to the ultimate goal is rarely a linear rise. There are generally periods of uncertainty, of falls down, and none is bigger than this. The Raiders future is bright, arguably when you look at a 5-10 year outlook, they may have the brightest future of any team, with two 25-year old superstars. One at the most important position (Derek Carr, who should only get better, as he has done every year) and the other at, arguably, the second (Khalil Mack). They have other very good to great young players, headed by Amari Cooper. They have so much cap space to spend still, and have drafted really well in the past couple years. The future is not any less bright, but sometimes the future is still only a concept. What's tangible was now, and now there is nothing.

If the Raiders went 10-5, or 9-6, and were in position to be wild-card fodder, I would not have cared nearly as much for Carr's injury. Going from 7-9 to 10-6 would have been natural. Instead, the Raiders cheated and jumped a few wins a year early, put themselves in decent positions to steal a weak AFC (this is not a great Patriots team, 14-2 or not). They had a shot, and Trent Cole took it away. It is never so easy, never such a smooth ride. 

The Raiders have gone through this rebuild with such steely focus and patience. Reggie McKenzie is getting a lot of plaudits as a GM, but we should probably direct some of that praise to the man above him. Mark Davis showed extreme patience when they went 4-12, 4-12 and 3-13 in the first three years. Mark Davis didn't blink, understanding just what McKenzie was planning and doing. A few good draft picks later and few teams are positioned any better than the Raiders. We just have to now hope that the fans (including myself) have as much patience.

If the future plays out like it should, and like all the crazy Raiders fans expect, we will look back at the 2016 season as the start of somethign amazing, but the ultimate tease of a season. And maybe that is not so bad. Suffering is good. A team that wasn't as good as its record anyway probably should get hurt a bit to keep that fire going, to keep the ship dead-straight ahead. The Raiders will hopefully be better off for having to suffer their first playoff season without their leader. Learning patience is so important, and if both the fans and the team themselves can do it well, the future will be incredibly bright.

My Top-15 TV Shows of 2016: #5 - #1

5.) Game of Thrones  (Season 6 - HBO)

When I was doing this list, I starting getting surprised at how well I thought the latest season of Game of Thrones stacked up. Let's face it, the shows had a rough two years, specifically with having to defend scenes showing/dealing with rape. But season 6 moved past those issues, showcased and grew great, strong female characters in an organic way, and drove the show forward in a way the last two or three seasons have not. If anything, Season 6 was a redemption season, with two of the Starks finally getting back together in Jon and Sansa's arc, to us finally getting some payoff on the Arya and Bran solo acts. Having pairs of people finally together, especially the Tyrion/Danaerys pairing, created an energy in the show that was lost. Seasons 3-5 were more about moving pieces around, while 6, the final full-length season, really set the stage nicely. It also had some of the most powerful, well constructed, scenes in the shows history, whether it be the death of Hodor, which of course also served as an origin story, to the bananas beginning of the final episode and melting of King's Landing, to finally the confirmation of R+L=J theories. Even while some of these had been more or less spoiled (that and Jon's reincarnation), it all played out nicely. Game of Thrones has the ability to hit higher highs than any shows given its budget, and we saw that in even the lesser seasons - particularly with Hardhome last year, but in this year, if anything their showcase episode (Battle of the Bastards), was not close to their best. The storytelling, plot speed and character development was its best in years, despite being the first season to move fully past George RR Martin's books. Maybe that was the key, afterall?


4.) Narcos  (Season 2 - NETFLIX)

I had Narcos ranked quite highly last year, and while I agree with some of the criticisms both of this season and the show overall (at times on-the-nose plot devices and the narration), I think they add to the brilliance of what Narcos became. Season 1 was built around Columbia itself and the American DEA, and the growth of an empire. It tried to be The Wire, cover all bases at once. Season 2 was more like a Breaking Bad season, an intense character study of the downfall of Pablo Escobar played out over 10 hours. It still had good work on the DEA (and even more CIA) front, showing the complexity of fighting the drug war, but it was a Pablo focused season, and man was it amazing. Wagner Moura's portroyal of Escobar is amazing. Native speakers will criticize his accent (Moura is Brazilian), but beyond that it is hard to criticize anything he did. The story itself of Pablo's slow crawl into an isolated monster, never knowing how to stop, was just as stirring, to me, as Walter White's, which is particularly impressive since this was based off of real history. The point-by-point view of his empire falling, his influence dwindling, and his energetic fury boiling was great storytelling. The cinematography remained brilliant, as did the acting as a whole by most of the cast. I have doubts on the show post-Pablo as Season 3 will turn its sights on the Cali Cartel, but this era of the show was every bit as good as it could have been.


3.) OJ Simpson: Made in America  (ESPN)

Spoiler: this is not the highest ranked show that centered around OJ Simpson - which says more about just how incredible that trail was. ESPN's seven-hour, five part documentary was absolutely incredible in every way. From the slow burn of starting it showcasing OJ's career contrasted with race relations decaying in Los Angeles, to ending it with a walkthrough of OJ's current legal issues (which was to me, the only forgettable part of the documentary), it was obvious the documentary was going to go into everything. Of course, the best parts centered around the parts that focused on the trail itself. I'll put aside my thoughts on the verdict itself, but I think the program did a fair job of showing why OJ was almost definitely guilty, but also why it is not a lie to say the LAPD and LA DA botched their investigation and trail. The best of the show really was how well the interview footage played. Both in showing how those close to OJ were as polarized as everyone else, and how bad Mark Fuhrman comes across even all these years later. I don't think the documentary would make anyone rethink their view of the verdict, but would definitely make people better understand why this trail captivated America - especially those like me who weren't alive for it. The doc did an unbelievable job of showing how the trail impacted the country, from footage and interviews of LA residents, both black and white, to comparing it to other racial issues across the US. This was a true uncompromising look at the Trail of the Century, and how and why it attached itself to all of our consciences. For ESPN's first try at long-form documentary storytelling, this was note perfect. The 30 for 30 series has done an incredible job in so many of its standalone stories, but this was a risk, and one that paid off so damn well.


2.) Stranger Things  (Season 1 - NETFLIX)

So often, the shows we never expect to take hold just do. NETFLIX didn't really hype up the release of Stranger Things, certainly not as much as many of their other shows. The show featured pretty much no known actors apart from XXXXXXXXX. Unexpectedly, for NETFLIX, it caught fire online, hitting all the right notes to attach itself to the influential TV writers that grew up watching similar shows in the 80's. Word of mouth worked, drew me into watching something I generally would not have, and allowed me to take in the spectacle. It is hard to imagine that a show that was such a call-back to the 80's in style, design and plot, would work so well in 2016, but maybe enough time has passed for it to be rightfully retro. The best part, really, was the acting. All the kids and teenagers were casted so well, especially Natalia Dyer (Nancy), Millie Bobbie Brown (Eleven) and Gaten Matarazzo (Dustin). All the kids really were incredible in their roles, putting such energy and joy into the show. The show itself did such a good job of putting in all the right elements. There was just the right amount of sci-fi mystery, just the right amount of teen angst, just the right amount of childhood fun, and just the right amount of small-town, small-stakes drama. I found the show so good, so perfect, that it became one of the rare shows I would hope would not come back. I thought the same thing about Fargo, but there they had the benefit of being an anthology show and changing everything anyway. This doesn't. Im optimistic given how good this first season was, and how much young talent they have to work with, but I doubt anything will be better than the small mystery of hunting down the demagorgen.


1.) American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson  (FX)

The first time I did a list like this was in 2014, when I put Fargo at #1. To me, that was an easy call. It was the show that best defined television in 2014, that best showcased the medium - and ultimately it was a wholly surprising given how hard it was going to be to pull off, to create a TV show in the same universe with the same tone as a beloved cult film. In many ways, The People vs. OJ Simpson was so similar. Nothing was more memorable about TV in 2016 than this, and nothing was more surprising. Unlike the other OJ piece, this was not a documentary, this was scripted, original material. This was a show with actors playing the part of real people - people that themselves became celebrities during the OJ ordeal. This was such a daunting task, I was skeptical from the start. The skepticism went away quickly, and was replaced by sheer joy.

One of the links between Fargo and The People vs. OJ Simpson (and so many other great shows including my #2 this year), was just how much fun they were to watch. I don't know if any show was as good as this in that regard. Like all shows it starts with the acting. Everyone was great. Few shows have such a star-studded cast, and, putting aside Travolta's Shapiro for a minute, while most of the big names got smaller parts they were all amazing, like Nathan Lane's F. Lee Bailey. Of course, the stars were Courtney B. Vance's amazing portrayal of Johnny Cochrane, and Sarah Paulson's great, complicated view of Marcia Clark. While the documentary focused on the larger picture, The People vs. OJ Simpson focused in on the trail and the main players, and did an incredible job. The courtroom scenes were great. The emotional arcs of Chris Darden and Clark were great. The infighting in OJ's circle was so well scripted and played. The largest flaw people seemed to have was Travolta's portrayal, but even that I thought hit the spot given how larger than life Bob Shapiro considered himself. My main takeaway from the show ended up being just how incredibly entertaining it was. The hours flew by, and after each one I left my chair with a large smile on my face. Nothing was better, few were even close, to The People vs. OJ Simpson in 2016.

NFL 2016: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

AFC

The 'Better Luck Next Year Boys' Quinto

16.) Cleveland Browns  (0-14  =  220-408)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-12  =  260-359)
14.) New York Jets  (4-10  =  242-358)

There are actually fewer teams in the AFC totally out of it than in the NFC, but the AFC teams feel far less hopeful about their future. The bottom three are shaping up to be disasters. The Browns are on their way to a well deserved 0-16, but at least they have a bevy of picks. They really have to avoid whatever inclination they may have to trade for Jimmy Garrappolo. The Jaguars finished the first half of their two-part reset by firing Gus Bradley. How quickly they can move on comes down to what happens with Blake Bortles. For the Jets, I'm really not sure. They aren't as bad as 4-10, but they weren't close to as good as 10-6 last year either. Bryce Petty was decent last week, but if we have to get a Hackenburg appearance, the upcoming game in New England can get really ugly, quick.

The 'Debating whether to hit the re-set or not' Duo

13.) San Diego Chargers  (5-9  =  366-366)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals  (5-8-1  =  288-293)

Both teams were supposed to be better. By point differential, both teams are a lot better. Injuries have hit each, whether it is to AJ Green on Cincinnati, or everyone who can catch a pass on San Diego. Both will have to face some really tough questions this offseason on their future. Both will face questions on their coach, with McCoy and Lewis on the hot seat. I have a sneaking suspicion Marvin Lewis stays. The Chargers and Bengals aren't far away but what hurts is the division they are in. Even the current iteration of these teams would be reasonably competitive in the AFC South, but alas they aren't there. I'm glad it isn't me making decisions on the future direction of the franchise.


The 'Playoff Fodder' Quatro

11.) Houston Texans  (8-6  =  250-294)
10.) Buffalo Bills  (7-7  =  358-314)
9.) Indianapolis Colts  (7-7  =  362-339)
8.) Miami Dolphins  (9-5  =  315-314)

All of these teams have shots at the playoffs. The Texans have a pretty easy path. All they have to do is beat Tennessee in Week 17 and they are in (honestly, they could consider resting their guys against Cincinnati). The Dolphins also are more or less one win away with a clear shot at that this week against the Bills. The Bills and Colts need a lot of help, but are alive. Of course, the Bills and Colts are probably the two best teams of the four. I have no idea how the Texans are possibly 8-6. I have a larger idea on how good Tom Savage is, or is not. The Colts will have gone from mightily overachieving to 8-8 last year to underachieving their way to 8-8. In a way that is better, but for any Colts fan you have to be hoping a late season push does not cloud the fact that Pagano and/or Grigson needs to go.


The 'I Mean, the 2008 Cardinals made the Super Bowl' Quatro

7.) Tennessee Titans  (8-6  =  340-323)
6.) Baltimore Ravens  (8-6  =  306-263)
5.) Denver Broncos  (8-6  =  299-258)
4.) Kansas City Chiefs  (10-4  =  319-274)

The Titans, Ravens and Broncos are pretty easy to group together. Teams with good enough strengths to potentially go on a run (yes, even the Mike Mularkey-led Titans), but with obvious holes that could easily keep them out of the playoffs all together. I'm putting the Chiefs here despite the fact they are essentially assured of a playoff spot. To me, they are, very underratedly, not that good of a team. They have lived off of defensive and special teams TDs, and won a handful of games they had little to no business winning (@CAR, @DEN, @ATL). This Chiefs team is nowhere near as good as last years group. The Ravens have a clear path in. Win out and they win the division. The key will be the upcoming game against the Steelers, obviously, and they get a chance for a reverse-2008 scenario where they can steal the division with a win in Pittsburgh. The Titans also have a clear path. One of the two just might get it done.


The 'If one of us don't make the Super Bowl, call this January Madness' Trio

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (9-5  =  341-276)
2.) Oakland Raiders  (11-3  =  377-336)
1.) New England Patriots  (12-2  =  365-233)

I'm putting Pittsburgh up here as that team has quietly won five straight and started to right itself on both sides of the ball. They are 9-3 in games that Roethlisberger plays and finishes. The Raiders may still fall to the Wild Card, but to me they still have a far higher upside than the Chiefs, with a more sustainable model of not needing ridiculous Special Teams TDs to win games. As for New England, let's just move on. If they had just regressed like they should I would be wholly supportive of this NFL season.


NFC

The 'Better Luck Next Year Boys' Trio

16.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-13  =  264-434)
15.) Chicago Bears  (3-11  =  248-320)
14.) Los Angeles Rams  (4-10  =  197-328)

The Bears are by far the best team of this trio. Yes, the team with the old, conservative coach and the team starting Matt Barkley at QB. At least they can point to injuries as an excuse. What exactly do the 49ers and Rams have? The 49ers tried the whole 'stockpile draft picks' plan and then forgot that for it to work you actually have to draft well. The Rams tried the 'trade all the picks for a QB' plan and, admittedly through just five starts, that QB is a disaster. The Rams are already looking for a new coach, and you have to imagine the 49ers might be as well. It is amazing how quickly the best division in the league was gutted.


The '2017 isn't too far away, guys' Quatro

13.) Philadelphia Eagles  (5-9  =  316-299)
12.) New Orleans Saints  (6-8  =  406-392)
11.) Arizona Cardinals  (5-8-1  =  340-325)
10.) Carolina Panthers  (6-8  =  337-352)

All these four teams can at least start to get excited about a potential run in 2017. The Eagles still have a positive point differential, and a QB who had some good moments. All they really need is more weapons for Wentz and a better health at the o-line. The Saints defense has also had its share of moments, and Drew Brees, when not throwing INTs a lot, is quietly having another fantastic season. Finally we get to the two teams that met in last years NFC Championship Game, going a combined 28-4 last year. Neither is having close to the season it expected, but the Cardinals probably won't be as hurt next year and the foundation is still solid. The Panthers are still the organization I wrote about so glowingly. Consistency is needed at some point, but for now they have a great foundation to build off of for next season.


The 'Playoff Fodder' Trio

9.) Washington Redskins  (7-6-1  =  345-343)
8.) Minnesota Vikings  (7-7  =  264-259)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (8-6  =  313-322)

Right now all three are on the outside looking in, but still have a shot at the playoffs. The Redskins really blew it on Monday Night and now need a ton of help to get there. I think they were all a little overpsyched by the Josh Norman revenge-ness of the game and didn't seem all that prepared. Also, I have a feeling Kirk Cousins is playing himself out of a lot of millions at this point. The Vikings will be one of the few teams to achieve the 'last unbeaten team in the league' distinction and then miss the playoffs in a long time. As for the Bucs, the future is really bright, but consistency will always be a concern with both Jameis and a defense that seems to vary in their pass rush and coverage discipline a lot. These are fixable issues, but I don't know if Jameis will ever really be all that consistent.


The 'I mean, the Giants (or if the Giants, 'We') won the Super Bowl in 2007 and 2011' Trio

6.) Detroit Lions  (9-5  =  301-285)
5.) Green Bay Packers  (8-6  =  363-339)
4.) New York Giants  (10-4  =  272-250)

I happen to think the NFC is quite a bit more open than the AFC, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if any of these three teams make the Super Bowl. Now, none are all that great, but each have had enough quality wins to be taken very seriously, whether it is the Lions going to New Orleans and winning, or the Packers routing Seattle, or the Giants beating the Cowboys twice. At this point it seems inevitable we are getting Packers @ Lions, Week 17 Sunday Night, which would be fantastic. Less fantastic would be if both are making the playoffs anyway at the start of that game.


The 'If one of us don't make the Super Bowl, call this January Madness' Trio

3.) Seattle Seahawks  (9-4-1  =  298-235)
2.) Atlanta Falcons  (9-5  =  469-358)
1.) Dallas Cowboys  (12-2  =  366-258)

Honestly, Atlanta has quietly been one of the best teams in the league, but their five losses will make people overlook them. Some of that is deserved, I mean there is still a non-inconsequential chance they don't win the division. They will really rue the few games they absolutely blew, especially both of their home losses to the Chargers and Chiefs. They should have won the bye, and even more those losses will probably keep Matt Ryan from an MVP award he so rightfully deserves. As for Seattle and Dallas, they keep chugging along and will get all of us (not to mention FOX executives) wet at the chance of a showdown in Jerryworld in January.


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  14-2
2.) Oakland Raiders  =  12-4
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-5
4.) Tennessee Titans  =  9-7
5.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-5
6.) Miami Dolphins  =  10-6


NFC

1.) Dallas Cowboys  =  13-3
2.) Seattle Seahawks  =  11-4-1
3.) Atlanta Falcons  =  11-5
4.) Green Bay Packers  =  10-6
5.) New York Giants  =  11-5
6.) Detroit Lions  =  9-7


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) San Francisco 49ers (1-13)  @  Los Angeles Rams (4-10)  (4:25 - FOX)
15.) San Diego Chargers (5-9)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-14)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Amazingly there are only two of these disasters" Saturday, as we only get two games between teams that are completely out of it, which is a nice surprise this late in the season. That first game is an absolutely trainwreck of epic proportions. The second is slightly intriguing as it represents the Browns last chance of conceivably getting a win as it is hard to see them beating the Steelers in a game in Pittsburgh in Week 17 that they will likely need.


14.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1)  @  Houston Texans (8-6)  (8:30 Sat - NFLN)

I call it "One of these things is not like the other" Saturday, as this is by far the worst of the primetime games this week. Because of the weird Christmas Eve / Christmas Day competing games, there are five games that are in standalone windows. Three are great games (spoiler: my top three). Thursday night's is decent. This is a disaster. The Bengals are just depressing given they should have been so much better. The Texans can honestly punt this game as win or lose they have to win Week 17 in Tennessee (technically, a Titans loss to Jacksonville and Texans win gives them the division - but that is not happening).


13.) New York Jets (4-10)  @  New England Patriots (12-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Washington Redskins (7-6-1)  @  Chicago Bears (3-11)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Tennessee Titans (8-6)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "No Chance of a Spoler" Saturday, as we get these three games with one potential playoff team (in NE's case, obviously playoff-bound) go up against three teams that are completely out of it. I can't imagine the Jets or Jaguars pulling the upset. I guess the fighting Matt Barkley's have a shot at officially ending the Redskins season, but even there I can't imagine the Redskins laying another egg when fighting truly for their playoff life. What I wouldn't give, however, for the Patriots to have a repeat of their memorable 2004 loss to the 4-12 Dolphins.


10.) Miami Dolphins (9-5)  @  Buffalo Bills (7-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Arizona Cardinals (5-8-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (9-4-1)  (4:25 - FOX)
8.) New York Giants (10-4)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (5-9)  (TNF - NBC)

I call it "Far better chance of a spoiler" Thursday and Saturday, as we get three inter-division games where teams currently in good playoff positioning have to play rivals that are at least live spoilers. The Bills are arguably plain better than a Matt Moore-led Dolphins team and this is just the type of game Rex Ryan would get up for (sidebar: I know his defense hasn't been good, but I don't get the rush to fire Rex). The Cardinals have been in this position before, beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in Week 16 in Seattle in 2013. The Eagles gave the Giants a great run in the first matchup and still have the defense to stay in the game. I feel like one, if not two, of the lesser teams spoil here.


7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-8)  (4:25 - FOX)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (9-5)  @  Carolina Panthers (6-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Better get that spoiler warning loaded" Saturday, as the NFC South takes center stage. The Saints and Panthers are both proud teams, and the NFC South has some underrated rivalries going on. The Bucs embarrassed the Saints to some degree two weeks ago, and the Saints now get a chance to show them that life is a lot different in the Superdome. The Panthers also get to show that life is a lot different not in the Georgia Dome. I actually think the Falcons are pretty safe bets, but Carolina is a proud team that would like nothing more to end their season on a nice run to set them up for 2017.


5.) Indianapolis Colts (7-7)  @  Oakland Raiders (11-3)  (4:05 - CBS)
4.) Minnesota Vikings (7-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (8-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Let's just have fun" Saturday, as these two games look fun for no real reason. The Colts last two road games were wins of 41-10 and 34-6. Two ridiculous ass-kickings. The Raiders are a different challenge than the Vikings and certainly the Jets. The Colts are the type of team to really give the Raiders a run though. With the Vikings, they obviously have had a crushing last 9 games (2-7), but they still have some matchup advantages against the Packers that they can exploit.


3.) Detroit Lions (9-5)  @  Dallas Cowboys (12-2)  (MNF - ESPN)
2.) Denver Broncos (8-6)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)  (8:30 Sun - NBC)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)  (4:30 Sun - NFLN)

I call it "Let's just have all the standalone primetime games all the time" Sunday and Monday, as we get some weird scheduling, but the NFL hit gold this time. I don't think the NFL could have flexed any of this, but they didn't have to. I have no idea why we have two Christmas Day games, but we get two great ones. My top ranked game is easily the game of the weekend, with the winner getting the clear road to the AFC North Title. I feel a lot of people are expecting Pittsburgh to win, but the Ravens have a peak level this is definitely high enough to beat them. The Broncos have to win out and hope for help, but a good start would be to get back a game against the team that stole one from them (and really started them down this downward spiral of poor play. Finally, Detroit and Dallas is a great game, one ESPN couldn't have imagined would fall into their lap this way come Week 16. Both teams need the game (the Lions obviously more so - a win here pretty much assures them a playoff spot), and should be a great capper to what looks like an excellent Holiday weekend of football.

My Top 15 TV Shows of 2016: #10 - #6

10.) Orange is the New Black  (Season 4 - NETFLIX)

I've alternated hot and cold with Orange is the New Black. I really enjoyed the first season, less so the second season as I never really cared about Vee. I was lukewarm on the third season, where I got a little bored of the current set of prisoners and tired of the flashbacks. Yet, in Season 4, I thought the show found a new sense of direction, diving headfirst into the idea of the privatisation of prisons in the US. The show really did well by the staff, who were often underserved in early seasons beyond Caputo and Healey. Bringing in an entire new batch of prisoners also brought a sense of newness to a show that was getting slightly stale. The entire season long storytelling arc, simmering with just the right amount of labor vs. management and racial tensions capped off perfectly with the accidental death of Poussey which should have amazing ramifications for future seasons. I'm very much back on board with the show after this season, especially if they continue with storylines outside of the prison, whether it be the staff, or released inmates that we grew to know and love on the inside.


9.) Better Call Saul  (Season 2 - AMC)

My consideration of both Vince Gilligan and his team's talents and the superb cast made me honestly slightly disappointed with Season 2. Of course, I still found it an amazingly alluring and appealing show that I never considered not watching. My largest issue with the show was Season 2 split far more into two separate shows that lived in the same universe. One was Mike's turn into crime to support his family (ironic, since that's what got his future nemesis and killer into crime), and the other with Jimmy slowly breaking bad realizing his life as a lawyer is not really all that fun if Jimmy can't add a bit of 'Slippin' into that life. Of course, my issue with teh show is while these two parallel stories are both incredibly well crafted, at this point the Mike version is much more compelling. I have high hopes for the future as the end of the season, particularly the very end when we realize Chuck was taping Jimmy's confession, may drive the show forward and ultimately veer towards his turn to Saul, but until then, I can continue to watch a show that masters every part of the medium, if being slightly disappointing because it is nearly an 'A-' instead of an 'A'.


8.) Veep  (Season 5 - HBO)

Veep was my number 1 show last year, and while I think this ranking rightfully recognizes a drop in quality, let it be known that this is due to more to the overall quality of a lot of shows this past year. Also, when seasons get this far along in their path, especially in comedy where plot is less of a driving force as in a serialized drama, it is hard for them to keep being as amazing. Only so much of any dropoff do I actually write up to Armando Ianucci leaving the show. First off, he left behind most of the writing staff and the new main production team was his own. Second, the main criticism I heard about Season 5 was that the characters were far more caustic than it past, which is simply not true. Overall, I just cared less about the plot which seemed a little more serialized (Selina's chances in various recounts) than in past when the show was a little more expansive in its critique on Washington. Still, Veep remained an incredibly funny show with as many memorable one-liners as ever. I am also excited about where the show will go now with Selina out of office, a welcome move given that real US politics is doing a good enough job satirizing itself. At this point, Veep is just adding icing on top of the cake of an all-time great sitcom of this era, but at a quality that is still incredible high.


7.) Silicon Valley  (Season 3 - HBO)

Silicon Valley remains a great show, but I'm very surprised at how well they were able to navigate a tricky situation. In the tech world, there is definitely a few paths you can take. You can either fail badly, or grow rapidly. The former would have had serious implications on the show, and the latter would have quickly made the characters, and the problems they would face, a lot less relatable. Instead, they showed brief periods of success, showed how badly some characters reacted to that success, and ultimately were able to hit the re-set button on the plot without it seeming like a deus ex machina to keep the show going. Add to all that how funny the show remains, and how well they are now doing with non essential characters. Gavin Belson's animal-fueled-apology tour and ultimate demise became my favorite little part of the show each week and I can't wait to see what they do with him now away from Hooli. I still am not sure how long it can last given the need to drive plot to a conclusion and the immense talent of its cast starting to hurt the show (actors will eventually get more lucrative opportunities) but for now Silicon Valley has, slightly, overtaken Veep as HBO's flagship comedy in my mind.


6.) Bojack Horseman  (Season 3 - NETFLIX)

Bojack Horseman was my highest rated comedy last season, and it remains so this year as well. The (far too) unknown gem in Netflix's original content stable, Bojack Horseman remained every bit as cutting and brilliant in satirizing Hollywood, modern culture, but this year took it to another level in delving really deep into psychology of how people perceive success. The show itself might not have been as consistently great as in Season 2, but it hit higher highs. Episodes like the all-underwater episode presented with nearly no dialogue was a masterpiece, showcasing the medium for all its glory and showed how emotionally brilliant animation can be. The ultimate quest for an Oscar may have failed for Bojack, but was a gold-mine for the show. All the other characters remained as good as ever, but even there we saw deeper looks at Todd, Mr. Peanutbutter (an incredible arc with his family backstory), and Princess Carolyn. It was less 'funny' than before, but more emotionally relevant and in the end just as good. I can't imagine it going more than 1-2 more years, but it still pulls down incredible names to do voices, and there seems to be a lot more to mine out of these characters.

My Top 15 TV Shows of 2016: #15 - #11

15.) Master of None  (Season 1 - NETFLIX)

Aziz Ansari's show garnered a lot of attention for taking on more understated and implicit racism, but didn't really get enough attention for just how funny it is. Ansari will always be far better as a comedian than he is as an actor (this was an issue on Parks & Rec as well), but his persona was laced all across that show. If I have any quibble, it is with the supporting cast that were a little thinly drawn out, especially his 'best friend' Arnold who got very grating after a while. That said, the love interest of Rachel is played really well by Noel Wells, who fits this type of role much better than she did SNL during her cup of coffee there a few years back. She and Ansari had great chemistry, and while I don't want the show to become a romantic comedy, their pairing did allow some great moments like their impromptu trip to Nashville. I doubt the show will ever get much higher than this for me, but it is still a well worth it time pass.


14.) All or Nothing: A Season with the Arizona Cardinals  (Amazon Prime)

The biggest takeaway for me from watching Amazon's look inside the 2015 Arizona Cardinals was how bad it made Hard Knocks look in comparison. Now, this was much longer (ten 45-min episodes vs. five 60-min), but also so much deeper and better. I'm guessing very few watched this, but if Amazon made this a yearly (or at least semi-regular) occasion, I would be ecstatic. They picked the perfect team, with perfect personalities, and got lucky enough to have a team that went 13-3 and overall had a great season. The best part was an actual look at what team meetings, and practices, and gameday sideline banter is like. This wasn't cut to show stories and pull heart strings like Hard Knocks does now, instead it went straight to the heart of the team. The star was probably Bruce Arians (admittedly, they included a strange sideplot about Arians dog?), but the real star was the entire team. Patrick Peterson shows up great, as does Calais Campbell, a whole host of rookies, and even GM Steve Kiem. This is the type of show that had multiple long cuts of boardroom meetings between Kiem, Arians and Team President Michael Bidwill. That may seem boring. It wasn't. The show wasn't either. It may never happen again, and we were lucky the team was really good, but for one season it worked really well.


13.) It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia  (Season 11 - FXX)

At this point, Always Sunny is in that Simpsons mode that they hit around the same time when the seasons started blending together, but if anything, that shows just how good this show has become in its age. They are essentially making a live-action animated show, where characters can not grow. And while the characters themselves haven't grown, the show writers who also play them certainly have. Always Sunny has gone more inventive, more playful and more technically brilliant. This past season saw a show shot as it were taking place from the perspective of Frank - including interludes of his own personal thought - and also saw a complete spoof episode where they played off of the surprisingly large ski-movei sub-genre of the 80s and 90s. The show did less zany episodes, but still haven't lost their underrated biting wit and social commentary. The show is going to go for at least three more seasons, and can probaly go five more. Returns may be diminishing in a sense, but if they even approach a Simpsons-length run we really will have to reevaluate Always Sunny's place in the history of (cable) television.


12.) iZombie (end of Season 2 - The CW)

My pet favorite show of 2015 put out far less content in 2016. Last year it showed both a 13-episode Season 1, and the first 9 episodes of Season 2, but the last 10 episodes of Season 2 raised the bar even higher. The lasting theme of the show to me is just how much damn fun it is. As always, the conceit itself is ridiculous, but we are so far beyond just 'Girl becomes Zombie and solves crime!' phase, into where the show is examining legalization of drugs, corporate corruption, and pharmaceutical ethics all within this ridiculous conceit. The plot can get overly complicated at times, but the awesome cast papers over that easily. Rose McKiver is magnetic is Liv, but even the extended cast, whether it is Ravi (Rahul Kohli), Major (Robert Buckley), Blaine (David Anders - doing a great Spike from Buffy impression), they all work so well off of each other, and again, are openly having so much fun. I do wonder how far the show can go, and the ratings are definitely not inspiring, but for now I can't wait for a (sadly reduced) Season 3 where the Zombie issue gets exposed in the government, in 2017.


11.) The Night Of  (HBO)

I had initially pegged The Night Of to be much higher up the list, but as the season wore on, I kept dropping it further and further. I still find it to have been a very good show and worthwhile investment of my time, but I think there were serious issues with the latter half of the season. They almost always came in plot and characterization issues - most notably Chandra's lovelorn turn in the season's latter half. No lawyer would ever fall for a guy who may have easily committed a brutal murder and was starting to get into the drug world. Beyond the plot elements (John Stone running down alleys to chase potential suspects?) the show had a lot of great elements. The acting was almost always great, particularly Turturro's weird portroyal of Box, and Bill Camp as Detective Box and Jeannie Berlin as DA Weiss. The parts of the show I wish they went into more was the racial strife and how Naz's trail was impacting his family (who were wonderfully played as well), or more about his life in jail. For a show tangentially connected to The Wire, the show seemed to tip to more plot-driven elements than story for my liking.

NFL 2016: Projecting the Last 4 Weeks and the Rest

AFC

Key Takeaways:

The Patriots are definitely winning their division, and definitely getting a bye. Only question for them will be if they can get the #1 seed. Their path to the #1 seed becomes a lot easier of the Chiefs beat Oakland on Sunday, as the margin for error for New England grows. As you can see, I don't have the Chiefs beating Oakland...

The AFC North and West have some key games. The AFC North title will probably just come down to who wins the Baltimore @ Pittsburgh game. I have that going to Pittsburgh, and them accordingly winning the division. I would want it to be Baltimore, but it would be tough. If the Ravens happen to shock New England, they still have a path to the division with the loss.

As for the West, there is a lot still left to play, but if the Raiders beat Kansas City, they are close to a lock. They still have tricky games left on the schedule, but it is hard to foresee either Denver or KC running the table. I do think Oakland will win (more on that later).

With the AFC South, the biggest game is next week, with teh Texans going to Indianapolis. The Texans have the easiest schedule left, but to me are the worst of teh three teams. I think the Colts will that game and rightfully win the division.

NFC

Key Takeaways:

The NFC East will get at least two teams in teh playoffs unless the Giants collapse. I don't think they do, and I think they get the #5 seed, albeit a very underwhelming one. I do have the Redskins sneaking in a tight race for that #6 seed, where teams like Arizona and Tampa bay are very much in play.

The Buccaneers may be better than the Falcons, but their schedule is far tougher and with that I think they have a disappointing finish and miss the playoffs. The Falcons can sleep walk to the division title if the Buccaneers fade as I'm expecting.

The North may not come down to the Week 17 game in Detroit, which I'm sure every Lions fan is hoping. If the Packers lose to Seattle, and if the Lions take care of business in two winnable games the next two weeks, they are set free. They can also be helped by the Cowboys sitting players if they are in position. In the end, I think making up a 2-game gap in four weeks is just a little too much, and the Packers similarly end up outside the Wild Card picture.

The West is a bore now. Only real question is if the Cardinals can make a crazy push to the playoffs. We often think of a team getting a tie be free of tiebreaker scenarios, but that win against the Redskins may come in handy. Similarly, the Seahawks may be locked into the #2 seed come Week 16 and gift the Cardinals a win.


Playoff Projections

AFC

Wild Card:
(6) Broncos @ (3) Steelers
(5) Chiefs @ (4) Colts

Byes:
(2) Patriots, (1) Raiders


NFC

Wild Card:
(6) Redskins @ (3) Falcons
(5) Giants @ (4) Lions

Byes:
(2) Seahawks, (1) Cowboys


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) New York Jets (3-9)  @  San Francisco 49ers (1-11)  (4:05 - CBS)
15.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-12)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Chicago Bears (3-9)  @  Detroit Lions (8-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Atlanta Falcons (7-5)  @  Los Angeles Rams (4-8)  (4:25 - FOX)
11.) San Diego Chargers (5-7)  @  Carolina Panthers (4-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1)  @  Miami Dolphins (7-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Washington Redskins (6-5-1)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
8.) New Orleans Saints (5-7)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Denver Broncos (8-4)  @  Tennessee Titans (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  @  Buffalo Bills (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (11-1)  @  New York Giants (8-4)  (4:25 - FOX)
4.) Houston Texans (6-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1)  @  Green Bay Packers (6-6)  (4:25 - FOX)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (7-5)  @  New England Patriots (10-2)  (MNF - ESPN)
1.) Oakland Raiders (10-2)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)  (TNF - NBC)

NFL 2016: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

AFC

The "2017 is only 9 months away" Trio

16.) Cleveland Browns  (0-12  =  197-352)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-9  =  214-293)
14.) New York Jets  (3-8  =  196-266)

No change here, as the Browns lose another game on their slow slog to what should have been inevitable the whole time, and the Jags and Jets lose games where we can pretend to argue that they played well in. The Jags and Jets both had decent shots to win, but erratic QBs against good teams in close games rarely works out well. Somehow, the 0-12 team seems to have the brightest future of the three. The Browns have oodles of draft picks and no cap room. The Jags seem stuck with Bortles, and the Jets have an expensive roster with no way out. Not great times.


The "End of an Era?" Uno

13.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-7-1  =  213-245)

I don't think anyone saw this coming. The Bengals have a ton of injuries that they have had to deal with, but even then they should not be this bad. I think we all underestimated the impact losing Marvin Jones and Muhammad Sanu would have on that offense, and the defense lost some key pieces. The real issue, though, has been the dramatic drop-off of the offensive line. The Bengals had one of the best OLs in the NFL last year. Without losing anyone major, they turned suddenly into one of the worst. That was so unexpected and I'm not sure how the Bengals turn that around. Also, I have to think that this is the end for Marvin Lewis - which is sad to some degree. I think the Bengals will long for the days of the 2011-2015 period, even though they never did win a playoff game.


The "Can someone just not win the AFC South?" Trio

12.) Houston Texans  (6-5  =  194-236)
11.) San Diego Chargers  (5-6  =  313-291)
10.) Buffalo Bills  (6-5  =  281-236)

The Texans are just terrible. Their best game in recent weeks was a loss to the Raiders played in a strange environment where Raiders players slipped and slopped across it and that was the only reason it was close. The Texans defense dropped from really good in 2015 to slightly above average in 2016. I need them to not win that division, but if they do it may open up questions on why a division winner is guaranteed a playoff spot. The Chargers and Bills are far better teams, but they are stuck in tough divisions and unless either wins out (and for the Chargers it still may not be enough) they will be at home in January. Also, I'm not sure how either gets much better. The Bills have some upward mobility of Tyrod continues to improve and if Sammy Watkins ever were to stay healthy, but with Rex it is hard to ever see everything coming together.


The "If someone has to win the AFC South, can it be one of these two?" Duo

9.) Indianapolis Colts  (5-6  =  270-301)
8.) Tennessee Titans  (6-6  =  308-296)

In a weird way, the Colts were surprisingly good in that Steelers game. Their defense was not good, but their offense was able to limit the number of possessions, and if they were a little better in the red zone they may have pushed the Steelers. I'm assuming Luck is back next week, and if so, they have a chance to go on a run. It will come down to winning all their remaining division games against Houston and Jacksonville, but they should be able to do so. With the Titans, they got the win they needed to, but I have questions on how that game became so close. They were within a couple of drops from the Bears away from losing that game. Still, I would take either as our token #4 seed ahead of Houston.


The "3rd Tier Playoff Contenders" Trio

7.) Miami Dolphins  (7-4  =  249-240)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (6-5  =  218-201)
5.) Baltimore Ravens  (6-5  =  266-222)

The Dolphins are actually the #6 seed at the moment because of conference record, but that is solely due to them having played an additional conference game. I don't buy the Dolphins long-term. That schedule is going to get much harder. 10-6 may not make it either. I would find them dangerous, but we haven't seen them go and outplay a good team yet. The Steelers and Ravens are polar opposites in their offense and defense respectively being really good, and the other side of the ball being worse than it should given their talent. The Steelers with all their pieces are terrifying, and the Ravens, with Dumervil back are equally terrifying on their end of the ball. It really seems like this is going to come down to that Christmas Night game against the Ravens.


The "Muddled Greatness of the AFC West" Trio

4.) Kansas City Chiefs  (8-3  =  252-214)
3.) Denver Broncos  (7-4  =  266-219)
2.) Oakland Raiders  (9-2  =  307-275)

That was a fantastic game on Sunday Night, but one that the Broncos should never have lost. Their defense, for the first time in two seasons, collapsed late when defending a lead. They were given the impossible equation of that 62-yard field goal vs. punting and hoping for a tie. The Broncos also gave up 9 points via a safety and punt return TD. The Chiefs should get a lot of credit for coming back, running a good 2-minute drill for once, and not folding, but I still think Denver is the better team. It know becomes a tough situation for them in terms of getting to the playoffs though. The Raiders just keep trucking along. They have a weird schedule quirk of having to play all their divisional road games in the last four, but this is also a team that is 5-0 on the road. The Raiders probably were praying for a tie, and with a win against Denver, probably rooting for a Denver win, but if they can close at 12-4, they should be good.


The "Let's Move On" Uno

1.) New England Patriots  (9-2  =  293-197)

Yeah, let's move on. I can't do this. I'm fully enjoying this season, but the looming spectre of them winning again is making my mind hurt.


NFC

The "2017 is only 9 months away" Trio

16.) Chicago Bears  (2-9  =  178-264)
15.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-10  =  228-344)
14.) St. Louis Rams  (4-7  =  170-236)

I'm moving the Rams here, who are 0-2 in their last two games. The first they lost when their defense could not support an awful offense. The next week, that defense gives up 49 while the offense looks decent. It looks pretty obvious they are going to be worse than Fisher's hilarious 7-9 disposition, which may easily spell the end of Fisher. The Bears and 49ers are obviously bad and should be in full 2017 planning mode, starting with whether their head coaches in Fox and Chip continue.


The "It's time to start thinking about 2017" Duo

13.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-6-1  =  245-228)
12.) Carolina Panthers  (4-7  =  276-281)

I still believe long-term in the Panthers. They have a ton of money to spend, talent on both sides of the ball, and only two clear weaknesses to shore up - their OL and secondary. There is a recipe here and still believe in the two main cooks in Dave Gettleman and Ron Rivera. That all said, their year-to-year inconsistency is not a good sign. For the Cardinals, there are more serious issues to deal with - starting with whether Carson Palmer is just on the way down. Beyond that, there are oodles of free agents with not too much money, and they have to deal with putting all their chips in for 2016 and now facing the consequences.


The "Too many wasted moments" Duo

11.) Philadelphia Eagles  (5-6  =  254-213)
10.) Green Bay Packers  (5-6  =  274-289)

I was very much looking forward to that MNF game and instead we got a complete dud, as the 2010-2014 Packers showed up for a game and the Eagles defense decided not to. Honestly, with the Eagles, the more surprising element of the game was the lack of a pass rush by the defense more than any issues with Wentz, who had a perfectly acceptable game. The Packers are still two back in the division with five to go, but the Lions tough schedule and the Packers opening to get a season sweep in Week 17 certainly leaves them in play for a miracle playoff berth. The Eagles are in the periphery of the wild card race, but some of those early season losses are really starting to hurt them now.


The "Fringe playoff contenders" Trio

9.) New Orleans Saints  (5-6  =  334-307)
8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (6-5  =  249-264)
7.) Washington Redskins  (6-4-1  =  280-264)

Technically, the Redskins are the current #6 seed, but I find them to be a more fring playoff contender than Minnesota (who I have ahead of them) as with the Redskins the divsion is completely out at this point. The Redskins still have something close to the Saints offense (worse QB, but better complementary weapons), with something close to the Buccaneers defense (decent pass rush and coverage, but holes at safety). What helps them is they don't have the flaws that those two teams have. With the Saints and Bucs, they play twice, which is nice, and I'm sure Atlanta is hoping for a split there. The Saints offense showed it can still dominate bad teams, but we will get a nice test of their abilities when they take their show out of the Superdome soon.


The "Not that great NFC North Race" Duo

6.) Detroit Lions  (7-4  =  247-238)
5.) Minnesota Vikings  (6-5  =  218-192)

The Vikings blew that game, and their OL problems continue to surface, but if Adrian Peterson is on the way back for December, that could be the best little jolt the Vikings could get. I still believe in that defense, which was great once again. The pass rush has returned, with six sacks in the last two games. The Lions are continuing to squeak out games, and their ability to dominate up front will keep them from being blown out, but you have to wonder if an innate ability to win 1-7 point games with 4th quarter comebacks week-after-week won't ultimately prove to be unsustainable.


The "Weirdest Giants Team Ever" Uno

4.) New York Giants  (8-3  =  231-213)

The easy part of the Giants schedule is over, and they find themselves in nice shape off of their first, and really only, solid win of the season from a score perspective. The offense still has no run game for the umpteenth season, and the passing attack is far less than the sum of its parts, but a defense that is coming close to doing what the older Giants units did is really helping. There are some serious tests in the coming weeks (Pittsburgh, Dallas, Washington) but the Giants are probably safe even if they close the season 2-3 and get 10 wins. This Giants team bares no resemblance to the running-led 2007-2008 teams, nor the passing-heavy teams of 2011-2015. This is new water for them, but it is working, with a low-key solid defense supporting a two-man (Eli & OBJ) offense.


The "Can we have a divisional round matchup here?" Duo

3.) Atlanta Falcons  (7-4  =  358-302)
2.) Seattle Seahawks  (7-3-1  =  224-187)
The Falcons and Seahawks played an excellent Divisional Round Game in 2012, Year #1 of the Russell wilson experience. The Falcons and Seahawks played a very good game earlier this year in Seattle. These two teams seem to match-up well with each other, as even the Seahawks defense can't contain Julio Jones (Matt Ryan himself has done well against Seattle). I really hope they get to play against each other come playoff time, in either building. The Falcons may come to rue losses to Tampa in Week 1, or San Diego in Week 7, but I think they've begun to fully right themselves and take off, and I would imagine the playoff version of Seattle to very different than the one that laid an egg in Tampa.


The "How is this happening?" Uno

1.) Dallas Cowboys  (10-1  =  316-213)

At some point, I have to stop believing they would be better with Romo. Now, I can still argue that going forward it is safer to play Romo over a rookie when no rookie has ever won a Super Bowl, but even that becomes hard given Romo's injury history. This season is proving to be closely alligning to the 2004 Steelers. That team had a great roster coming off of an uncharacteristic 6-10 season (Cowboys were 4-12 last year), when they went to a rookie QB who used a great OL and running game and dominanat receivers (Hines & Plax), to personally go 14-0 (Tommy Maddox went 1-1). Roethlisberger, when you adjust for era, had probably the best statistical rookie season from an efficiency standpoint as well. Until Dak this year. Roethlisberger fell apart in the playoffs. Obviously, that wouldn't last long term, but his performances in each of the Steelers playoff games were not good. There is a little inkling in my mind that Dak and the Cowboys could ultimately face a similar fate.


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  13-3
2.) Oakland Raiders  =  12-4
3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-7
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-8
5.) Denver Broncos  =  11-5
6.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-5


NFC

1.) Dallas Cowboys  =  13-3
2.) Seattle Seahawks  =  11-4-1
3.) Atlanta Falcons  =  11-5
4.) Detroit Lions  =  10-6
5.) New York Giants  =  11-5
6.) WHO THE HELL KNOWS


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Tennesee Titans (6-6), Cleveland Browns (0-12)

15.) San Francisco 49ers (1-10)  @  Chicago Bears (2-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Who Gives a Shit" Sunday


14.) Denver Broncos (7-4)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) St. Louis Rams (4-7)  @  New England Patriots (9-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "I don't see a spoiler here" Sunday


12.) Indianapolis Colts (5-6)  @  New York Jets (3-8)  (MNF - ESPN)
11.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Uninteresting games with a fringe playoff team" Sunday and Monday


10.) Houston Texans (6-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (6-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Washington Redskins (6-4-1)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1)  (4:25 - FOX)
8.) Detroit Lions (7-4)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)  @  San Diego Chargers (5-6)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Quasi-interesting games with playoff (some fringe) teams" Sunday


6.) Carolina Panthers (4-7)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "This game was supposed to be so much more meaningful" Sunday


5.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)  @  Atlanta Falcons (7-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
4.) Buffalo Bills (6-5)  @  Oakland Raiders (9-2)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Good games between potential playoff teams" Sunday


3.) Miami Dolphins (7-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
2.) New York Giants (8-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)  (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Dallas Cowboys (10-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-5)  (TNF - NBC)

I call it "Really good games between potential playoff teams" Sunday

The Great Silver & Black Awakening

I could have written this when the Raiders went into the Superdome and busted out massive cojones in beating the Saints by going for two. I could have written it last week when they had their best performance to date in rolling the defending champs and taking control of the AFC West. Instead, I am writing this after they went off to Mexico and won in a sloppy game against the Texans. But really, there is no better or worse time. There is just the future. The Raiders are back. The NFL is better for it, and so am I.

The rebirth of the Raiders is not a surprise. They were a trendy sleeper pick before the season started, so much so it became very passe to tout them as a playoff team, with people moving off the Raiders to other flavor of the weeks in Jacksonville or Buffalo. Yet, even for the people that fully supported the Raiders, having them be the #1 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today through 10 weeks is surprising. The Raiders are not a great team, but they are an unbelievably clutch and confident team. The Raiders are winning by doing what they know: passing, blocking and going for it.

This all started in the 2014 NFL Draft, when for some reason Khalil Mack slipped to the 5th pick. The Raiders got him, and then got Derek Carr in the 2nd round. Two years later, Mack is living up to the hype, and Carr is easily the best QB from his class, and probably the best young (3 seasons or less) QB in the NFL, if not a potential MVP pick. Two years ago, they were 0-10 through ten weeks. Now, they are the, by record, best in the AFC. But actually it goes back earlier than that.

The Raiders hired Reggie McKenzie to take over as GM in 2012. He was the first true GM of the Raiders not named Al Davis. While Davis's legacy weighed strong, he inherited a team without a rudder. He immediately cleaned house. While that seems in hindsight like an easy, necessary decision, the Raiders were coming off of back-to-back 8-8 seasons. Still, he saw the broken system in Oakland, and did what he thought was best. The Raiders paid him back by going 11-37 over the next three seasons. He kept his job. They are 15-11 since, with even better things to come.

We can credit Jack Del Rio, or Derek Carr, or the rebirth of Michael Crabtree, or the continuing growth of Amari Cooper, or the slow build of a dominant OL. There are many reasons why the Raiders are 8-2. All of them have played a part in creating a dynamic team in Oakland. All of them are reasons. All of them have helped create one of the stories of the season. It may be lost under the glow of Dak, or the continued brilliance of the Seahawks and Patriots, or the general sloppiness and mediocrity, but the success of the Raiders will have the longest impact.

Ratings are down, this is arguably the biggest story of the 2016 season, and to me the explanation is simple: Peyton is gone. Now, that is reductive. It is not only him, but Peyton retiring (and Calvin Johnson, Patrick Willis and countless others) ended a chapter of the NFL book, and now they have to create another one. This happened before, in 1999-2002, and then Brady and Peyton ascended and took over. The NFL needs that next set of teams, and there is no better candidate than the Raiders.

The rebirth of the Raiders can be the punch the NFL needed, bringing a once-great franchise back to glory. The Raiders were one of the two primary powers in the AFC during the era that so many put up as the one that grew the game. The have a national fanbase, if more than a sustainable local one (which is why Las Vegas would be perfect for them). They can drive ratings and interest. The Raiders stood for so much in the old NFL, and nothing can help resuscitate the league than that special franchise and history rising again.

NFL 2016: Week 12 Power Rankings & The Rest

AFC


The "2017 is only 9 Months Away" Trio

16.) Cleveland Browns  (0-11  =  184-325)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-8  =  193-265)
14.) New York Jets  (3-7  =  179-244)
I think the Jets are slightly better than the Browns and Jaguars, at least in terms of talent. But with their QB carousel-ing, they really seem well placed amid the mess in Cleveland and Jacksonville. Honestly, the most hopeless in this group seem to be Jacksonville, which looks about to bust on a 2nd straight Top-10 QB, with Blake Bortles being only an improvement when compared to Blaine Gabbert. The Browns have 0-16 in their sites, and for their sake I hope they don't overreact and clean house again. This was the plan, after all. As for the Jets, just do your job and beat New England and then go fulfill your 5-11 destiny.


The "What the Hell is Going On?" Uno

13.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-6-1  =  199-226)

I've heard a lot of 'well, at least they won't lose a playoff game this year' jokes, which I think does a great job of showing why the Bengals have been a success from 2011-2015. Only once did they truly blow a playoff game, their awful 10-27 loss to the Chargers in 2013. They were clearly the worse of the two teams in 2011, 2012 and 2014 (AJ Green concussion missed the game), and had an injury to Andy Dalton end what likely would have been a Super Bowl appearance last year. Now? Well now their team is in tatters and questions will be raised again about Marvin Lewis's job. I have a feeling he will be gone, and five years from we will wonder how the Bengals ever made the playoffs five straight seasons.


The "Least Exciting Division Race Ever" Trio

12.) Houston Texans  (6-4  =  181-215)
11.) Tennessee Titans  (5-6  =  281-275)
10.) Indianapolis Colts  (5-5  =  263-273)
With the news that Andrew Luck may miss the Thanksgiving game due to a concussion, we really have to fear for a world where the Texans, with their negative 34 point differential and lack of JJ Watt and lack of lack of Brock Osweiler end up winning the division as well. At least with Tennessee, which hasn't had a home playoff game since 2008, and Indianapolis, there is a chance for a semi-exciting Wild Card game. I honestly wouldn't mind Tennessee making it and seeing the world re-evaluate their thoughts on Mike Mularkey once again.


The "Upset Special Teams" Duo

9.) Buffalo Bills  (5-5  =  253-215)
8.) San Diego Chargers  (4-6  =  292-278)

There is a very low chance either of these teams makes the playoffs. The Chargers have next to no shot. The Bills have to probably run the table or go 5-1 at worst. Still, these are two teams that are better than any of the AFC South teams as currently constituted, and arguably better than the AFC North champion as well. The Bills offense continues to be surprisingly good, and while the defense has still not reached the levels it was at pre-Rex, the sacks and pressure have returned nicely. The Chargers are done, but they still have a true Wild Card in Philip Rivers who can pull an upset at any time, and with them still hosting the Chiefs and Raiders, there is a chance they factor in to the AFC West outcome.


The "Here we go again" Duo

7.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (5-5  =  238-215)
6.) Baltimore Ravens  (5-5  =  199-187) 

The Ravens gave the Cowboys a good game for 28 minutes, and my main takeaway there is Dallas is a dominant force and the Ravens secondary has major holes. For the most part, the Ravens run defense did its job and kept Zeke Elliott in check. The Ravens and Steelers are diametric opposites, and while I think the Ravens are slightly better, it is hard to favor them in this division race. The Steelers still get the Browns one more time, and get the Ravens in Heinz later in the season (Christmas Night, I believe), which easily gives them the edge. That all said, what was with the Steelers letting the Browns hang around like that, and Ben throwing for way under 10 YPC? They have a history of playing down to their opponents 2-3 times a year, and were lucky enough to win this one.


The "AFC Playoff Periphery" Duo

5.) Kansas City Chiefs  (7-3  =  222-187)
4.) Miami Dolphins  (6-4  =  218-216)

The Chiefs were somewhat living off of borrowed time the last couple weeks. They absolutely should have lost to Carolina, so it was somewhat a make-up that they blew a winnable game to Tampa Bay. Their issue is they still have to play Denver twice (starting this week), and their offense just seems broken right now. Whatever running game magic they had last year that was deployed when Jamaal Charles went down is completely missing. For the Dolphins, they are a somewhat better version of the Chiefs right now. Tannehill is still not getting any protection, but their talented players are coming up big and their schedule is far more manageable the rest of the way than Kansas City's. By the way, for all the talk of how bad the AFC South is, if the Dolphins make the playoffs, this will be the first time the AFC East sends multiple playoff teams since 2010.


The "Fight to the Death, AFC West Style" Duo

3.) Oakland Raiders  (8-2  =  272-243)
2.) Denver Broncos  (7-3  =  239-189)

I still believe the Broncos are better, that their strength (a ridiculous pass defense) is more consistent week to week than Oakland's strength at passing. Denver has a somewhat easier schedule the rest of the way as well, at least when it comes to having their more important games at home (including the rematch between Denver and Oakland). But there is something rolling with the Raiders right now. That was not a game they should win by any stretch. The Raiders won a game with a defense that came up big (and played well throughout the night, if a little soft on 3rd down), and a passing game that changed on the fly and drove the Texans into submission with their backs in the passing game. That was a mature performance by the Raiders in a season full of them. They should be 6-4, but maybe a year from now they are a deserving 8-2 as they continue to improve.


The "It's Always Them" Uno

1.) New England Patriots  (8-2  =  271-180)

One of more misleading 13 point wins in recent memory, and one of the lesser 4TD games I have ever seen. Sure, we can toss some of it up to a rainstorm in the first half, but that was a sloppy New England team beating a team that anyone in the NFL, save for the Browns, can easily beat. Still, the Patriots have only a few tough games left, and while they are not hte #1 seed for the moment, the AFC West will beat each other enough to give them likely a one-game cushion where 13-3 should be good enough.


NFC


The "Cover your eyes and run" Duo

16.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-9  =  204-313)
15.) Chicago Bears  (2-8  =  157-237)  

The Bears will be starting their 3rd string running back, be without their top-2 WRs coming into the season (Jefferey, White), have a bad OL, be without their young promising rookie defensive lineman (Leonard Floyd) and now without their starting QB in Cutler. Despite all of that, the 49ers are worse. Let's be real for a moment. What exactly is so innovative about Chip Kelly? His offense was really nice for a year and a half, but midway through the 2014 season teams started figuring it out. Now they are a disaster. His personnel judgement has been the source of many a punchline. There is nothing redeeming about him as a coach at the moment. I have to think he's back in college by 2018 at the latest.


The "We need to talk about change, right now" Trio

14.) Los Angeles Rams  (4-6  =  149-187)
13.) New Orleans Saints  (4-6  =  244-246)
12.) Green Bay Packers  (4-6  =  247-276)

Jeff Fisher has been coaching the Rams for 5 seasons, but outside of 2011, coaching some team for 22 seasons. Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy were both hired in 2006, and are now in Year 11 in their stops. All three have had really good highpoints, specifically Payton and McCarthy who achieved them with their current teams, but it is definitely time to ask if change is inevitable. It seems like the Packers situation is screaming for a new head coach (and it is stunning how the Packers offense went from the most frightening thing ever in 2014 to middling in two years), but it should be just as much in New Orleans as well. Somehow, Sean Payton has escaped criticism because Drew Brees is an alien and he has been able to get away with throwing defensive coordinator after defensive coordinator under the bus. Change is needed there as well.


The "On the way up!?" Duo

11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (5-5  =  235-259)
10.) Detroit Lions  (6-4  =  231-225)

I'll admit, I thought it was a bad move to fire Lovie Smith and replace him with Dirk Koetter, and I thought it was worse to keep Jim Caldwell. I further assumed the Lions were dead after Calvin's retirement. Instead, the Lions are tied for first and the Buccaneers are a game behind. I don't think either team is particularly good. The Lions have had way too many close games and calls with teams of far less talent (Houston and Tennessee in losses, Jacksonville in wins - maybe it is an AFC South problem) to trust, and while their defense and offense both remain competent, neither seems to produce as well as the play-by-play numbers would suggest. The Buccaneers are an interesting team, but I still worry about that defense that hsa been so prone to the big play without Lovie Smith running it, especially given what lies ahead.


The "This Wasn't supposed to happen" Duo

9.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-5-1  =  226-190)
8.) Carolina Panthers  (4-6  =  244-246)

Last January, the Cardinals and Panthers played in the NFC Championship Game. This was not any old NFC Championship Game. The two teams combined for the 2nd highest combined win total of any two Title Game participants (28-4, only the 29-3 put up in the 99 NFC and 04 AFC title games were higher). The game was a laugher (Carolina won 49-15), and less than a year later it seems impossible that that game happened. Arizona seems more broken in that a lot of their success last year came from older players who now have fallen off (Palmer the biggest factor). The Panthers are in a state where this seems like a fluke. Secondary issues that have now righted themselves cost them the first Saints game. Cam missing a game cost them another. Graham Gano missing a field goal cost them another. The Panthers are probably a game too far away from Atlanta at this point, but the makings of a great team still reside in Charlotte. In Glendale? I'm not so sure.


The "Three Teams Enter, Two Teams Leave" Trio

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  (5-5  =  241-186)
6.) New York Giants  (7-3  =  204-200)
5.) Washington Redskins  (6-3-1  =  254-233)

Unless the Cardinals go on a great run, or the runner-up in the North is a lot better than we think, two of these NFC East teams will be making the playoffs. The Eagles, by the advanced metrics, are the best, and their defense and special teams will keep them competitive. But with Carson Wentz really struggling and injuries hurting the run game you have to wonder if they have enough to go on the 5-1 type run they need to after already suffering five losses. What helps is they still have to play all of their home divisional games. The Giants and Redskins both have fairly challenging schedules ahead, but enough ability to finish 10-6 or 10-5-1 and take the wild cards. The Giants defense is legitimately very good, and Redskins offense is the same. The Giants probably have slightly higher upside because by personnel their offense should be better than it is, but given we are 10 games in, it is more likely the Giants offense is what it is at this point.


The "2nd Tier Playoff Teams" Duo

4.) Minnesota Vikings  (6-4  =  254-233)
3.) Atlanta Falcons  (6-4  =  320-283)

The Vikings offense is still a mess, but the defense course corrected in a big way, harassing the living hell out of Carson Palmer last week. If that Vikings defense shows up, they should be in fairly good shape as they still have the makings of one of the best units in the NFL. The Falcons are the inverse, with the better offense supplementing a bad defense. Neither formula is great, but both should be good enough to win their flawed divisions.


The "Only Tier Playoff Teams" Duo

2.) Dallas Cowboys  (9-1  =  285-187)
1.) Seattle Seahawks  (7-2-1  =  219-173)

Seriously, each week that goes by makes it more and more obvious that these two teams need to play in the NFC Championship. If we don't get that, this whole season will be a disaster. I am not a fan, and have something of a moderate dislike, of the three teams that seem like a lock to win the Super Bowl (Dallas, Seattle, New England), but still would salivate over the prospect of Dallas and Seattle playing an NFC Championship Game in either building. Just a perfect matchup.


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  13-3
2.) Oakland Raiders  =  12-4
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  9-7
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-7
5.) Denver Broncos  =  11-5
6.) Miami Dolphins  =  10-6


NFC

1.) Dallas Cowboys  =  13-3
2.) Seattle Seahawks  =  12-3-1
3.) Minnesota Vikings  =  10-6
4.) Atlanta Falcons  =  10-6
5.) Washington Redskins  =  10-5-1
6.) New York Giants  =  10-6


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) St. Louis Rams (4-6)  @  New Orleans Saints (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Tennessee Titans (5-6)  @  Chicago Bears (2-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday


14.) New York Giants (7-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-10)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) San Francisco 49ers (1-9)  @  Miami Dolphins (6-4)  (1:00 - FOX
11.) San Diego Chargers (4-6)  @  Houston Texans (6-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "I round down when we get 50% of a good matchup" Sunday


10.) Green Bay Packers (4-6)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)  (MNF - ESPN)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5)  @  Indianapolis Colts (5-5)  (Thanksgiving - NBC)

I call it "The most hyped games between average teams ever" Thursday and Monday


8.) New England Patriots (8-2)  @  New York Jets (3-7)  (4:25 - CBS)
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (5-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Semi-fun Divisional games" Sunday


6.) Carolina Panthers (4-6)  @  Oakland Raiders (8-2)  (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1)  @  Atlanta Falcons (6-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Oddly Intriguing Games for No Great Reason" Sunday


3.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)  @  Denver Broncos (7-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Another Night in the AFC West" Sunday


2.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4)  @  Detroit Lions (6-4)  (Thanksgiving - CBS)
1.) Washington Redskins (6-3-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (9-1)  (Thanksgiving - FOX)

I call it "This is what Thanksgiving is all about" Thursday

NFL 2016: Week 11 Power Rankings (Check-In)

AFC

The "2017 is Only Ten Months Away" Trio

16.) Cleveland Browns  (0-10  =  175-301)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-7  =  174-239)
14.) New York Jets  (3-7  =  179-244)

I was surprised to see that the Jaguars actually had a better point differential than the Jets. The Jets are really, really bad. I guess all they are really missing is a QB and some corners. It is amazing how corner has gone from such a strength through much of the Rex Ryan era (even after Revis left) to a glaring weakness. The Browns may easily go winless, but I actually see more hope, in terms of a plan, here than I did in Detroit. Granted, with drafting Stafford and Suh, the plan in Detroit coalesced quickly. As with any rebuild, it will come down to the value they get on the draft capital they have built up. As for Jacksonville, I really don't know what to say. It will come down to Bortles, and whether he can amount to anything. And if he can't, it will come down to how quickly and expediently the Jaguars get rid of him.


The "Worse than they look or Better than they look 8-8" Duo

13.) Houston Texans  (6-3  =  161-188)
12.) Buffalo Bills  (4-5  =  237-203)

The Texans are one of the worst 6-3 teams I have ever seen. How this team managed to beat the Chiefs is beyond me. Amazingly for them they may have enough of a lead to hold onto the division, but we may be in store for another 30-0 wildcard loss. It is amazing how bad Osweiler has been, and how much it shows the Broncos were absolutely right to both get rid of him and ensure Peyton started in the playoffs. As for teh Bills, they are the opposite. This is a team that gave Seattle as good of a game as New England did, and did it in Seattle. But also a team that blew games to Miami and were spanked by New England themselves. The Bills are a good team, but way too streaky and in a really tough AFC Wildcard picture, they may have already lost too many.


The "Please can one of you win the AFC South" Duo

11.) Indianapolis Colts  (4-5  =  239-256)
10.) Tennessee Titans  (5-5  =  264-251)

There are going to be two divsion winners with 10-6 or worse records (unless the Texans somehow go 11-5). That said, I can confidently say the AFC North winner, be it Baltimore, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati, will give their wild card opponent a good game. Houston will not. The Colts can, as their offense is good enough to potentially hang with most teams. The Titans not only, we have to start thinking they may actually be good. This is a team that just rolled Green Bay from snap one, winning without even letting Rodgers get good garbage time scoring to make it look closer. The Titans weird 'exotic smashmouth' has calmed down the 'exotic' part since their early season struggle, and the smashmouth part is still humming. Maybe, just maybe, Mike Mularkey knew what he was doing.


The "Playoff Periphery" Trio

9.) San Diego Chargers  (4-6  =  292-278)
8.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-5-1  =  187-210)
7.) Miami Dolphins  (5-4  =  204-206)

Despite San Diego and Cincinnati both being two games under .500, I would pick both of them to beat the teams I put below them today. The Chargers still have that magician in Rivers. The Bengals still have loads of talent. Their drop in play comes down mostly to the shocking dropoff in the level of their OL. They had a clear Top-5 OL the last few years, and now it is bottom ten. Still, the Bengals are just one loss behind Baltimore (with both games against the Ravens still to come), and tied on losses with the Steelers with the game in Cincinnati still to come. There is a path to victory here. For San Diego, less so, but I have a hard time putting them further back. As for Miami, four straight wins have them right there in the playoff hunt. The division is likely gone unless the Pats collapse, and the Wild Card is a stretch, but there seems to be a bright future in Miami all of a sudden.


The "Sadder version of 2008, 2010 and 2011" Duo

6.) Baltimore Ravens  (5-4  =  182-160)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (4-5  =  214-206)

In 2008, 2010 and 2011, the Ravens and Steelers staged epic battles for the AFC North. In 2008, the Steelers led wire-to-wire, but it only ended in Week 15, when a 10-3 Pittsburgh team went into Baltimore and beat a 9-4 Ravens team 13-9. In 2010, it was something similar, when an 8-3 Steelers team beat an 8-3 Ravens team 13-10. In 2011, the Ravens finally struck back, ending the division when they swept the Steelers with a draamtic 23-20 win in Heinz. Those were incredible divisional battles, the AFC's version of Seahawks-49ers which really only lasted from 2012-2013. A few years later, these two will battle it out, but when you are trying to see who goes 10-6 to win the division, it doesn't seem as fun. The Ravens have a superb defense and the Steelers a potentially dominant offense, but the other factors are just not there.


The "The AFC West Escalated Quickly" Trio

4.) Kansas City Chiefs  (7-2  =  205-168)
3.) Oakland Raiders  (7-2  =  245-223)
2.) Denver Broncos  (7-3  =  239-189)

Remember when all of a sudden the NFC West was the best division in football after being absolute garbage for six years? This isn't as extreme, as the AFC West did send three teams to the playoffs in 2013, and has had at least two winning teams for a number of years (getting Manning in there helped), but all of a sudden the AFC West has the second, third and fourth best teams in the conference. There are all legitimate teams as well. The Chiefs defense is fantastic. The Raiders offense is excellent. The Broncos defense, at the very least the pass defense, may be the best unit in the entire NFL. It is hard to say any of them are a favorite. The Raiders still have to play all their divisional road games (they are 5-0 on the road so far). The Chiefs and Broncos have to play each other twice. It will be a crazy mad dash to the finish line.


The "Yeah, let's just accept they're winning the AFC Again" Uno

1.) New England Patriots  (7-2  =  241-163)

Despite the public perception, I've enjoyed a lot of this season. I have squarely not enjoyed the Patriots still being really good. Let's just move on.


NFC


The "So, So, So, Bad" Duo

16.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-8  =  187-283)
15.) Chicago Bears  (2-7  =  141-215)

I get that the 49ers have very little talent, but I'm shocked about how little criticism Chip Kelly is getting on what a disaster the 49ers have been. His offense has not been good. His offenses have not been good for a while now. At least in Philadelphia the record was decent. Analytics and film guys will slurp him to no end, but at this point I'm just not sure what makes him the visionary people think he was. As for the Bears, what a disaster the season has become. Injuries have just piled up, and while they have a clear path to start the rebuild by getting rid of Cutler, there is so much more to do at this point.


The "Muddled Mess" Trio

14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (4-5  =  216-242)
13.) Los Angeles Rams  (4-5  =  139-173)
12.) New Orleans Saints  (4-5  =  265-263)

The NFC has a far more messy middle than the AFC, which is why teams that can still claim to be in the playoff race are so low in my mind. The Buccaneers will hit a few splash plays, and you can see the makings of a very good team, but there is a lot to clean up from a cosnistency and protecting the ball standpoint. The Rams offense is what we all thought the Titans offense would be, a boring, slog focused on the run in a passing world. Maybe things change with Goff? At the very least they become 5% more interestign to watch. The Saints are somewhat unlucky in that they've lost two games they easily could have won (Denver, Oakland), but they've also won games they easily could have lost (Carolina, San Diego). The Saints are what they are, a .500 type team that has lost whatever aura they used to have regarding their ability to play really well at home.


The "It Wasn't Supposed to go this way" Trio

11.) Carolina Panthers  (3-6  =  221-226)
10.) Green Bay Packers  (4-5  =  223-234)
9.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-4-1  =  202-160)

The best three teams in the NFC for most of last season were the Panthers, Packers and Cardinals. Of course, the Packers slide started in the middle of the season and by the end they were easily behind Minnesota and Seattle, but either way, these are three somewhat preseason favorites. All three have a serious question about their ability to make the playoffs. The Panthers have been mightily unlucky, losing a bunch of close games. The Packers have been incredible frustrating, wasting Aaron Rodgers (who admittedly has been poor himself). The Cardinals are the worst because it seems there is no way back up. They put all their eggs in this 2014-2016 basket, and now the long slide back down begins. The Panthers can at least say things will get better next year when the corners are more ingrained, when they focus resources on the OL. For the Cardinals? What is there? Maybe get a 3rd old QB and get Romo?


The "Periphery Playoff Contenders" Trio

8.) Washington Redskins  (5-3-1  =  212-209)
7.) Detroit Lions  (5-4  =  205-206)
6.) Minnesota Vikings  (5-4  =  175-152)

The Redskins are the forgotten team in that NFC East (despite being by record better than Philadelphia). It is probably due to the 2-0 start, and the fact Cousins has been merely pretty good instead of the awful he was in the 1st half of last season or brilliant in the second. That team has a lot of talent and is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games. They have what it takes to sneak back in. The Lions and Vikings have a momentary edge on the Packers and both would do good to start adding to it. The Lions have been very inconsistent and the Vikings just a disaster over the last month, but there is still time for them to build a gap in that division and send their hated rivals home.


The "High Upside Frightening" Duo

5.) New York Giants  (6-3  =  182-184)
4.) Atlanta Falcons  (6-4  =  320-283)

I'm surprised the Giants don't have a positive point differential. Their offense should be better (and again, the problem is the run game and Eli's scattershot play) and their defense has been legitimately really good all year, one of the few cases where loads of FA money works out. They have two gimmes coming up, and while the schedule gets much harder later in the season, with the Cowboy game in New York still to come, there is a path to a division title, somehow. For the Falcons, they are lucky the Panthers have been so unlucky, as their freefall is close to what happened last year (5-0 start, 3-8 finish), but there is no 15-1 juggernaut to deal with. The Falcons offense is great. The defense is bad. On days where Ryan gets some time, they can knock off anyone.


The "They Just have to get in the game" Uno

3.) Philadelphia Eagles  (5-4  =  226-160)

By Football Outsiders DVOA, the Eagles are the most efficient team in the NFL, this on the backs of their top-ranked defense and special teams. Carson Wentz's level has not really improved the last couple weeks, but the run game has turned a corner and that defense remains among the NFL's best as Jim Schwartz continues to prove what a great defensive coordinator he is. If they can sneak into the playoffs, they can make noise, but the Eagles have put themselves in a really tough position losing multiple winnable games already.


The "Can we fast-forward to the NFC Title Game" Duo

2.) Dallas Cowboys  (8-1  =  258-170)
1.) Seattle Seahawks  (6-2-1  =  193-158)

Two years ago these two teams played in Seattle and the Cowboys came in and dominated the Seahawks up front and won the game. It was a huge statement game that in many ways has set the tone for the Cowboys ever since (aside from the injury-riddled last season). At this point, we would all like a rematch, be it in Seattle or in Jerryworld. I have a few concerns about Dak if the Cowboys were to ever go behind by 10+ in a game, but with that OL and a defense that is far better than the sum of its parts, maybe they don't actually get behind by that much anwyay. It would be a fantastic game, and certainly be a ratings giant, as much as we have to suddenly care about these things.


Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  13-3
2.) Oakland Raiders  =  11-5
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  9-7
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-7
5.) Denver Broncos  =  11-5
6.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-5


NFC

1.) Seattle Seahawks  =  12-3-1
2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-4
3.) Atlanta Falcons  =  10-6
4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  9-7
5.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-6
6.) New York Giants  =  10-6