2024 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

(A4) Houston Texans (10-7)  @  (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

Sat, 4:35 - ESPN  |  KC -8.5

The Matchup: I'll start off by saying this - I think the Chiefs win the game. They are too good at the crucial small moments, be it 3rd down or 4th quarter. Their defense is healthier than its been since the beginning of the season with the return of Jaylen Watson. Their offense is similar, except for one crucial place which makes me think the Texans keep it close: the OT situation. As I write this, it is still a bit unclear who will start at tackle for the Chiefs. Even when we do know, there's no guarantee the person that starts the game at LT will end it. The Texans have a massive edge there and for taht can put pressure on Mahomes and force them to do dink and dunk their way down the field. Granted, teh Chiefs have been doing that for much of the season and still doing it well enough for it to work. I think the Chiefs are better now than they were when they needed blocked field goals and missed field goals and such to win games mid-season, but the Texans are an opponent with some clear matchup strengths to turn the Chiefs offense back into that type of unit. Not even to mention their secondary being able to lock the Chiefs receivers. If there was ever a game the Chiefs need the old Kelce back, it is this one. In the end, the Chiefs are just still too good, but I do think this line massively undervalues the Texans.

The Pick: Chiefs 24  Texans 17  (HOU +8.5)

(N6) Washington Commanders (12-5)  @  (N1) Detroit Lions (15-2)

Sat, 8:00 - FOX  |  DET -9.5

The Matchup: The Lions in a way should fear this matchup, because their weakness is still the defense. Aaron Glenn's unit pulled off something magical in the Week 18 win over Minnesota, but more likely they resemble the unit that the 49ers carved up the week prior. The Commanders offense is excellent, and the Lions will probably have to resort to blitzes to get consistent pressure on Daniels. Jayden isn't amazing against the blitz yet, so there is that advantage. This all said, I brought up that 49ers performacne against the Lions two weeks ago for multiple reasons - I talked about what that may foretell for the Lions defense, but let's remember the Lions in the end won that game fairly easily. The Lions offense should move the ball at ease against a Commanders defense that is playing above its head. In the end, these are two similar teams in that sense, but the Lions offense is just a tier better, their OL should be able to neutralize the Commanders relative strength on defense, and being at home is the cherry on top. Wouldn't be surprised that much like the aforementioned 49ers game, the Commanders keep it close for a half, but the talent gap of the Lions offense against Commanders defense wins out over time.

The Pick: Lions 34  Commanders 20  (DET -9.5)

(N4) Los Angeles Rams (10-7)  @  (N2) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Sun, 3:00 - NBC  |  PHI -6.5

The Matchup: I need to take my medicine for being down on the Rams - they were great last week. Great gameplan and even better execution. So good job boys, because I generally still think they are a class or two below the level of this Eagles team. We saw this matchup a few weeks back - it was one of the few losses the Rams had in the back half of the season, and it wans't close. The Eagles went to LA and easily beat them. Of course, things can change, but what would? The Rams rush defense is relatively poor and the Eagles can dominate that matchup. The Eagles OL should also do a whole lot better against a good Rams DL than the Vikings did. But really, my concern is the other side of the ball. The Eagles don't need to blitz and let Stafford pick them apart like the Vikings did. They have the secondary to at least helm in Kupp and Nacua, and the DL to not let the run game get off the ground. I can see this being lower scoring than the Week 12 game. The Eagles pass offense is of course still not doing all so well, but I think they can lean on Saquon and the run game, and Brown and Smith to win enough 1:1s to score enough to put it out of reach. There is a chance we are all underrating this Eagles team - winning a playoff game by 12 playing a "C" game is probably a good indication of what their true level can be.

The Pick: Eagles 27  Rams 17  (PHI -6.5)

(A3) Baltimore Ravens (12-5)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Sun, 6:30 - CBS  |  BAL -1.0

The Matchup: What a game. I won't let this dissolve into just a discussion of the two QBs. I think its easier to think of the totality here. The Ravens crushed the Bills 35-10 this season, but that was Week 4. The Bills were missing a handful of key defensive starters that are all back. Granted, that still leaves that shorthanded against a Ravens offense seemingly built to attack the Bills key weakness of giving up too many chunk plays on the ground. Granted, the Bills also get a lot of stuffs, but that high variance rush defense is not a good match in this one. Both teams will try to run the ball which is why I can foresee a lower scoring game even if both offenses play relatively well - something like last year's divisional the Bills lost to the Chiefs. If anything, I think the Bills have a lot of matchup edges against the Ravens defense. The Bills OL should win their individual matchups in pass protection. The Bills offensive weapons are myriad enough to pick on the lesser members of the Ravens secondary - particularly their TEs to me have matchup edges. Lost in the Week 4 loss was Allen was missing Shakir as well. Finally the home factor, and the weather. Granted, the bitter cold in Buffalo should also help Henry's rushes get that much more punishing. I really don't know. The Ravens have a lot of good matchups but I do think we're underrating the matchup advantages the Bills offense have against the Ravens defense. The Bills faced arguably a better defense last week and slaughtered them. There won't be a slaughter here, but I think the Bills have slightly too much and will pull this off.

The Pick: Bills 27  Ravens 24  (BUF +1.0)

2024 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Review

Player of the Week: Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)

In a week of blowouts and fairly average games, we got one beauty (the one many expected to be such) and the rise of Jayden Daniels continues. Just a calm, collected, brilliant performance on the road, in a night game, against a defense that can dial up some crazy shit. He didn't get the help of a run game either. Not to worry. Daniels was great throughout, with amazing poise and great work commanding that offense. The game sealing play to work around Clancy was a thing of beauty. There is a slowness about the way he sees the game, that it all seems so right.

Runner-Up: Chris Shula (Rams DC)

Obviously, the death of the Sam Darnold miracle took a lot of the headlines, but let's not look past the brilliance of the defensive plan by the Rams. It is hilarious to me that a guy named Chris Shula (e.g. someone related to The Don Shula) can be relatively anonymous, but so is the case. Anonymous no more (to me, at least). The Rams defensive plan was perfect, playing more aggressive coverage than normal knowing Darnold may hold onto the ball too long. The variety of blitzes and pressures - in the end most sacks came when rushing four, but never teh same four. That was a glorious performance.

Goat of the Week: Justin Herbert & Jordan Love

Sure, I could've probably thrown Sam Darnold into this category, but Herbert and Love share a lot of things, namely being routinely overhyped by media film types. Particularly Herbert, where there was a hole cottage industry of calling him the best QB not named Mahomes, Allen and Jackson. Well, both QBs just got undressed in their respective losses. Yes, they had little help with drops (or injuries, for the Packers), but they looked awful. Herbert invited pressure, threw late, threw high, threw just truly awful passes like the first interception when his team was rolling. Love was much of the same, showing a lot of the inaccuracy issues that plague him from time to time. Both are good players, sure, but we should also remember this was year five for both players (including Love's three years on teh bench). They are not young.

Runner-Up: Tampa Bay Snapping

How do you lose a game when your QB goes 15-18 with 2 TDs, and also the run game plays well? Throwing away two possessions with snap errors is how. First, after stopping the Commanders on 4th and Goal, the Buccaneers have a snap and handoff issue that fumbles it right back to the Commanders, who turn their second lease on life into a TD to make it 20-17. Then, after driving it all the way to the Commanders 12 yard line, the center snaps it too early on a 3rd and 1 leading to a two yard loss and the Bucs ending up just tying the game. Now, the Bucs defense had their own other chances on defense and were hopeless, but it may not have mattered if they just snapped the ball properly every play.

Surprise of the Week: The Resurrection of CJ Stroud

This was not a banner year for CJ Stroud. He didn't get much worse, but he also didn't seem to get better. Some of that is inconsistent play from the receivers, a degradation in play from his OL. For about 20 minutes, that game was more of the same - and then the ball was snapped over his head near his own end zone, which he picked up and gained 30 yards. And then a light clicked on. Stroud was excellent for the rest of the game, throwing with command, with great touch, with great timing. Who knows if it lasts more than a week, or on the other hand is this something he can take into 2025. I did not expect to leave that game thinking Stroud and the Texans offense are playing above average and can be dangerous against the Chiefs, but here we are.

Runner-Up: Dyami Brown (WR, WAS)

Look, not that much was outright surprising (in the positive sense), but I was shocked by how good Dyami Brown was for the Commanders. We know about McLaurin, and Ertz, and Jayden, and Ekeler (even if he did fairly next to nothing). We in theory I guess know about Dyami Brown, in theory the Commanders #2 receiver, or at least the guy they want to be the #2 receiver over the limited (if still reliable) Olamade Zaccheus. Well, for a week we all saw Dyami Brown make some great catches, get some YAC, score a TD and giving Daniels a reliable non-McLaurin outlet. His continued performance will be huge if the Commanders are to pull an upset.

Disappointment of the Week: Steelers Fight

Kirk Herbstreit laid into the Steelers in that first half, and for good reason. That was embarrassing, just letting the Ravens run and run and run. It wasn't even the most creative stuff at times, just Lamar, Henry and Justice Hill just rolling them, and the OL roadgrading. The Steelers were not as good as the Ravens, but at least in the earlier two matchups they weren't embarrassed like that. The offense showed a little bit in that second half, but it was all so flat. Count me as someone who is slightly on the side of "I just think it's time to call it a day" with Tomlin and the Steelers. Mostly because this team was better than the 2023 Steelers and 2021 Steelers that got smoked in the Wild Card roudn. This team shouldn't have gotten smoked like that, especially on defense. 

Runner-Up: Chargers Everything

Much like the Steelers, the Chargers were disastrous all over. Even when they were going most of the first half without giving up a point, it was more Texans mistakes than anything they did. Aside from a couple Ladd McConkey plays, the offense was just a disaster. Even their much ballyhooed tackle due of Alt and Slater got beat often. This was just a complete team embarrassment for the Chargers. Really suprising, I have to say, with a Harbaugh team to be just outplayed in every facet like that. I still think they have a relatively bright future, but that will be a tough stain heading into the offseason.

Team Performance of the Week: Ravens OL

Sure, we can focus on Lamar and Henry - and why wouldn't we. They are maybe the most brilliant pairing of QB and RB in a generation. But what should also be noted in that game was how well the OL played - just removing Watt from the game, and doing more or less the same with Highsmith and Heyward and any other sucker the Steelers tried to put out there. The Ravens OL improvement over the course of the year has been so critical to them being so dominant on offense, and it was in full display. Rarely was Henry or Jackson even touched until a good 4-5 yards past the LOS. The Ravens had to replace folks on the fly, but performances like Rosengarten's continues to showcase the depth and brilliance of the Ravens scouting ability.

Runner-Up: Bills Skill Position Guys

Sure, we can focus on Allen and the Bills great OL (how amazing was Dion Dawkins just carrying cook for 10 yards!) - and why wouldn't we. But let's also give a lot of love to the Bills bevy of weapons - none lethal but so many dependable. Shakir contines to excel after the catch. Knox and Kincaid made good contested catches downfield. Cooper continues to have glue on his hands (even if he isn't always getting the most separation). All three running backs are adding value. Coleman is even shaking off players - as are Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel. A good comp for me, in a way, is the 2015 Panthers - who lost their supposed top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin) in the preseason but just meshed so well with Cam. This is the same.

Team Laydown of the Week: Broncos Defense

This was supposed to be a top-5 unit, with one of the league's best pass rushes, and a true shutdown corner in Surtain. Now, those elements weren't awful. Getting two sacks against Josh Allen is a huge win given how rare it is for him to get sacked (it should be noted, the second sack was the result of a clear missed holding call on Denver). Surtain I guess was OK - and his highlight of the Samuel long TD is probably unfair to him. But man did this defense just wither away. The DL could get no consistent push. The rest of the back-seven couldn't stop anyone. They couldn't contest catches. It was a rough go for what was up till now a good unit.

Runner-Up: Vikings OL

Yeah, we have to talk about that disaster. Sure, it is easy to just blame Darnold, and he was awful. But that OL was about as bad. Simple rushes and twists just flummoxed them completely. Yes, Darnold often held onto the ball too long, but in many of those cases the pressure was already to him in the first 1.5-2.0 seconds. They didn't do well in the run game either. I feel bad piling on that unit as they are definitely a noted weakness of teh Vikings, but they picked a rough time to have by far their worst performance - something they very much share with their QB.

Storyline that Will be Beat Into the Ground: Bills / Ravens - Biggest Game Ever

Yes, we get it. This is the clash of the titans. The two best offenses. The two teams living in the shadow of the Chiefs. This really is a great matchup, and glad it got the 6:30pm Sunday slot. All taht said though, it just pains me that this is a divisional game, that for the winner, they still have to beat likely the Chiefs to really make it matter. I more hate this game because of the discourse - not only the Chiefs thing, but how the loser will get crucified. I'm not a Chiefs hater. I hope Mahomes continues his brilliant career to where it is clear he is the GOAT and not Brady. But man, do I wish this was the AFC Championship Game. I honestly don't even have a story that should be beat into the ground because this one will jsut take all the oxygen away. We should be extolling the virtues of Allen and Lamar, but instead we'll turn this into an MVP referendum, and also a "can this guy win in the playoffs?" referendum for the loser, and i hate all of that so much.

2024 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

(A5) Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)  @  (A4) Houston Texans (10-7)

Sat 4:35 - CBS  |  LAC -3.0

The Matchup: I'm trying to think through what the reasons are to pick the Texans in this game. They've been playing like a dead team for weeks now, basically ever since it became clear they were winning that division after sweeping the Colts. Stroud is no better than last year, and the receivers adn talent aroudn him on offense is worse. The Chargers are more competent than the 2023 Browns were (who the Texans routed in the Wild Card Round last year). The Chargers probably won't give them two pick-sixes. Herbert's ability to get rid of the ball will come in handy to partially neutralize the only real strength the Texans have, namely their pass rush. Sometimes it all is just a bit easy to understand in that way. The Chargers are better. Yes, being a road favorite in the wild card round is scary, but to be honest low road favorites (e.g. less than -5), generally have a good record. I can't see the Texans offense really getting anything going against a Chargers defense that, while taking some hits, is still better in that matchup.

The Pick: Chargers 24  Texans 14  (LAC -3)

(A6) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)  @  (A3) Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Sat 8:00 - Prime  |  BAL -9.5

The Matchup: That's a big line, especially now that we know Zay Flowers won't be playing. We have to go back three weeks when these teams played, when the Ravens won convincingly 34-17. Of course, the Steelers were two yards from taking a 14-7 lead in the first half, and a pick-six gives the game a more of a blowout feel than it was. Flowers had 100 yards on 5 catches. The Steelers are healthier than they were a few weeks back, the Ravens less so. That all said, the Steelers offense we've watched the past two games won't have a shot against a Ravens defense playing better now than it had to date. The Ravens pass rush is ratcheting up, and the linebacker core has settled down - important in both being able to spy Russ and stop Harris. Anyway, I think picking the Ravens to win is easy, but that is a big line. The Ravens match up well against a Pittsburgh team that doesn't always have lane integrity when rushing, and struggles against TEs. In the end, I think the line is just too big for a 3rd matchup between teams, especially when big lines often end in close games in this rivalry.

The Pick: Ravens 27  Steelers 20  (PIT +7)

(A7) Denver Broncos (10-7)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Sun 1:00 - CBS  |  BUF -8.5

The Matchup: There are a few ways the Broncos can keep this close, if not win. Firstly, the Bills struggle on 3rd down (especially recently), which the Broncos have been above average at converting. The Broncos pass rush could win matchups against the Bills OL. Their top cornerback can take away at least one weapon of Allen's. Does this sound convinving? Yeah, I didn't think so either. The problem for the Broncos is that their best assets are things the Bills are good against. The Broncos have feasted on big plays in recent weeks - something the Bills are great at not allowing. The Bills biggest weakness is their run game - the Broncos are merely a middling run team. That whole Surtain thing? Well, what helps is the Bills is that they're more than happy throwing Cooper away and Allen winning with the rest. The Broncos are a good team, they are, in my mind, better than the Bengals. The Bills are better - it is a huge line, but I'll go with my gut that the Bills better matchups and better talent pull away.

The Pick: Bills 31  Broncos 13  (BUF -8.5)

(N7) Green Bay Packers (11-6)  @  (N2) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Sun 4:25 - FOX  |  PHI -4.5

The Matchup: Hurts was cleared today, so that brief window where it seemed he may not be ready is now gone. That makes this a lot simpler. I don't know why, but I'm quite confident in the Eagles in this game. The Packers receivers struggle at times with separation, especially a pointed problem without Christian Watson, and the Eagles secondary is way better now than it was in Week 1 when it was already forcing a bit of inaccuracy in Love. The Packers are a good rush defense, but haven't faced a rushing attack near the Eagles in ability in a long time - the last time they did was the Lions, who ran on them fairly well on Thanksgiving. The Eagles are just a really well put together team, and some random AJ Brown and Hurts infighting aside, I think they are too well rounded in this matchup. Particularly hte Eagles defense I feel can do well against a good but still inconsistent Packers offense. The Packers are still getting a good deal of love (no pun intended) in the line, so I think I'm safe here in picking the Eagles both heads up and ATS.

The Pick: Eagles 27  Packers 17  (PHI -4.5)

(N6) Washington Commanders (12-5)  @  (N3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Sun 8:00 - NBC  |  TB -3.0

The Matchup: This should be fun - easily the matchup with the best chance of a high scoring game, and deservedly one of the closer lines of the weekend. It's a bit surprising this is the SNF matchup, but I figure that's more FOX wanting to keep the best NFC matchup on paper for their window - NBC's loss is our gain. The Commanders and Buccaneers are similar in a way defensively - both liking to blitz a good deal. Daniels handles the blitz well, but inconsistently. If he can evade and get around it, this could be a long day for the Bucs - but my hunch is Bowles's defense wins enough of those matchups. Their secondary doesn't match up well though, where I can see McLaurin having a big day. On the other side, it's a similar story with Mayfield, and also if Evans can win the matchup against Lattimore (which I think he can). My main concern with the Bucs in this game is they have a habit of not leaning into the run, a more pointed worry in a game that could be high scoring. They can make hay on that side, but I do have a fear it gets too background ball with Mayfield. In the end, I have no real reason for the pick other than a gut feeling, but I think Daniels legs beats the blitz enough to take it.

The Pick: Commanders 30  Buccaneers 27  (WAS +3.0)

(N5) Minnesota Vikings (14-3)  @  (N4) Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Mon 8:20 - ESPN  |  MIN -3.0

The Matchup: This was a line closer to MIN -1.0 until the game got shifted to Arizona. I don't know how a big a deal that is, if only because the Rams don't have that great a home environment / edge anyway. At the end, I think there is a big disrespect to the Vikings with this line, off of in reality one poor game and poor showing by Darnold. Sure, I guess there is a reading of this whereby the clock struck midnight on Darnold's brilliant 2024 season, and his pumpkin-ness will continue, but otherwise not sure what we're doing here. The Vikings are a better team. They matchup well, generally limiting YAC, being able to get consistent pressure, something Stafford increasingly struggles with. On the other side, as long as the can keep Darnold clean (which, granted, is not an easy task against the Rams DL), the Rams do not have the secondary to stop Jefferson and Addison. Now, the Rams did win the earlier matchup of these two teams, but that was a game the Vikings played well down to down but had critical mistakes. That all could re-occur, of course, but I think we're all generally playing victim to one bad game, and the idea of how the good the Rams can be (the first Vikings game, the Bills game) and ignoring the larger evidence of what these teams normally are.

The Pick: Vikings 27  Rams 20  (MIN -3.0)

2024 NFL Playoffs: My Pre-Playoff Ranking of the Teams

Before I dive in, I do want to stress one point, this is not my ranking of the team's chances in each conference to make the Super Bowl. It's my ranking of how good I think the seven teams are relative to each other. Case in point - I do think the Ravens are more likely to make the Super Bowl than the Bills, even though I ranked the Bills higher, because I think the Ravens match up super well with the Bills. But in the AFC as a whole, I believe the Bills are better (i.e. I would pick the Bills over the Chiefs more than I would pick the Ravens over the Chiefs....). Anyway, with that quick aside...

My Ranking of the AFC Teams

7.) Houston Texans  =  10-7  (372-372)

This whole Texans year was one big, long sophomore slump. From the shine completely gone from Bobby Slowik's offense, to Stroud himself. The defense didn't have a huge slump, with players like Derek Stingley and Will Anderson having good seasons. But even that defense has holes, particularly against hte run. The OL is in shambles, they're missing a top weapon with the awful Tank Dell injury. And yeah, that offense is just broken at the moment. The record is the same, but the tone around this team could not be more different this year.

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  10-7  (380-347)

It would be easy to rank the Steelers even lower than the Texans - as they become just the third team since 1985 to enter the playoffs on a four (or more) game losing streak. But to be fair to them at least, that was a rough four game stretch to go into the playoffs, losing to three of the best teams in the NFL, and then a Week 18 game that (1) wasn't a must win and (2) they played about as bad as you can in many places and still nearly won. The defense is still very talented, and assuming Pickens's awful Week 18 was a one-week mirage, I firmly believe this is a better version of the Steelers than the fraudulent 9-7-1 2021 team (that lost 14-42 to the Chiefs in the Wild Card round) and 10-7 2023 team (lost 17-31 to the Bills). This is a decent team, where if you sprinkle the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs more randomly in the schedule - or to be honest just switch the order of the two Ravens games (e.g. they lose the first one and win the rematch), this team feels much different entering the playoffs.

5.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  11-6  (402-301)

The Chargers have some strengths on paper, particularly lack of turnovers, solid running game, and strong defense. But then again, that track record is hard to trust. Their "best" results, honestly, are close losses to the Chiefs (twice), and Ravens. Their best wins are, at this point, sweeping Denver (more on why I have Denver higher in a second). Herbert is a very good player and he has taken to this 'limit mistakes / Harbaugh-ball' quite well. There is a ceiling to that style, but there is a floor as well. Their only real ugly loss was that Bucs game a few weeks back (granted, it was UGLY). But a team that can really limit turnovers, shorten games, and plays well at all levels of the defense is a playoff sleeper.

4.) Denver Broncos  =  10-7  (425-311)

Ok, so yes, the Broncos were swept by the Chargers. Their point differential looks sexy now, but 1/3rd of that is just that 38-0 fake game against hte Chiefs. I chalk this up to the fact that to me it's a wash between the Broncos higher offensive ceiling, and Chargers higher offensive floor, and I like the Broncos defense slightly more than San Diego's at this point - healthier and more true top-end players like Surtain and, at least for this year, Bonitto and Cooper on the edge. Payton can get in a play-calling zone as well. Now, all that said, there is a very good chance they lose their wild card game and the Chargers win, but that is as much just about matchups than anything else. Flip the order of their seeds and I think the Broncos beat the Texans and the Bills beat the Chargers. To cap it, yes there is some fear of Bo Nix as a rookie, but that's priced in for my view of the Broncos having a fairly low floor on offense.

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  12-5  (518-361)

Advanced stats have this as the best team in the league. I'm a tad skeptical, not because they aren't truly great, but because they are also so high variance. If you say what team had the best top six wins - they're easily the best in the AFC (probably only Detroit comes close leaguewide). However, they also have two or three of the worst losses in that group. The defense has been much better in recent games, against a softer slate of offenses to close it. I have my doubts also if Zay Flowers has any lingering injury issues if that offense will play to the same level of performance. And finally, while Derrick Henry is amazing, we've also seen him (and runners like him, having seasons like this) at some point be stopped in the playoffs. The Ravens easily can win the AFC. I don't think in a vacuum they are the conferences best team.

2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  15-2  (385-326)

In isolation, this is one of the msot inexplicable seasons ever. They've outpaced their pythag win expectation more than any team ever. Granted, that is massively impacted based on their 0-38 loss - but even before that, in a 14-2 record with a +97 point differential (what they were at before last game) is also plainly not impressive. But the impressive part? The knowledge they are teh two-time defending champions that will be healthier in teh playoffs than they've been in months, with the potential return of Jaylen Watson. There is a chance, sure, that thsi is all smoke and mirrors and comes crashing down, but there is structure and strength in the knowledge that they're the best team in the league on 3rd down, that they're the best in late & close situations. Many of us are going against all historical priors by saying that there is reality in what is normal season to season variance that is hard to trust, and yes because we're saying that that normal magic is outweighed by the historical prior of them being the two time champions and 15-1 in games they tried to win this year.

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  14-3  (525-368)

The Bills are the best team in teh AFC in my mind. The most complete team. The team with the highest floor and probably 2nd highest ceiling. Now, they match up horribly with the Ravens given the main weakness the Bills have is their rushing defense, something the Ravens took full advantage of in their 35-10 win way back in Week 4. But this is not a ranking of the likelihood I see each of the seven making teh Super Bowl. Josh Allen has been protected and found a great rhythm with his bevy of options. He's playing controlled, and played specatularly aside from a two week stretch (the losses to Baltimore and Houston back in Week 4-5). The defense is getting healthier and is sound enough on the back end to not give up huge explosives in that area (which gives me good faith in their matchup against Denver, at least). The Bills may easily not reach the Super Bowl, given the road they may have to traverse, but they still to me are the best team in the AFC in the year 2024.

My Ranking of the NFC Teams

7.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-7  (367-386)

The Rams are a funny team, because there is a lot to like in theory - from Stafford, to a healthy Kupp / Nucua pairing, to a DL that has really improved. But as weird as it sounds to say this - there is a chance the Rams are less than the sum of their parts; or at minimum the potential sum of their parts. Who are the real Rams? The ones that beat the Vikings and the Bills? Or the ones that scored 44 points over three games against the 49ers, Jets and Cardinals, and barely beat the Patriots? Stafford is just a bit too inconsistent given the combination of his age & protection. The secondary is still iffy. The run game can be had (granted, every now and then can be dynamic). And at the end of the day, hard to trust a playoff team with a -19 point differential.

6.) Green Bay Packers  =  11-6  (460-338)

This is graded with the knowledge Christian Watson is done for the year, and Love will almost certainly play in the wild card roud. Not sure had we not had those injury scares they rank any higher - maybe flip them and the team at #5. For the Packers, Love is excellent, but can be inaccurate at times. There is that hero ball penchant still in there, and with one of his more dependable options out I do worry the potential implications. The defense is a good roster, but over the year I'm not sure Jeff Haflley has shown much flexibility over the year. Put it this way - I don't know if this team is meaningfully better than the one that played Week 1 against the Eagles. Now that team was/is still good enough to hang with a Eagles-type team. The NFC field is overall very strong this year.

5.) Washington Commanders  =  12-5  (485-391)

I hemmed and hawed between the Packers and Commanders ranking. Put it this way - I actually do think Daniels is better than Jordan Love (or at least the Commanders offense is most trustworthy than the Packers offense - and I'm guessing it's not because Kliff is a better playcaller than Lafleur...), the top weapons are all healthy. On the other side, the Commanders defense isn't good, but playing better the second half of the year. Fowler and Luvu have remained a good rushing pair for the entirety of the season. Quinn's scheme isn't groundbreaking, but they aren't getting embarrassed, and pair that with a Top-8 offense (where I think the Packers are squarely, though not farly, away from), and you get what I think is a very live wild card.

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-7  (502-385)

I'll admit there is some bias here - both bias on over-weighting them at their best (e.g. hammering the Chargers) and a bias on loving the fact they continue to be better than the final Brady-year. Now, their listless first half against the Saints hurts me there, but I do chalk that up to a bit of nerves. That game also showed a lot of why their upside is so high - from their pass rush, to Mayfield being able to turn to a level that is among the best in the league at his best. The Bucky Irving rushing game gives them such a different dimension as well. The defense doesn't have the ability to dominate like it did in 2020-2021, but with a healthy Vita Vea, and many others, and the Bowles scheme, there is a high upside, even if it's only a 20% chance you get anything close to that upside.

3.) Minnesota Vikings  =  14-3  (432-332)

I get why we were all immediately quick to throw the Darnold jokes around again after his admittedly poor performance in Week 18. Granted, for many that was the first time we were seriously watching the Vikings, a bit of a forgotten team for weeks while the Lions and Eagles were going on their elongated win streaks. The Vikings though to me are a really good team, call them a B+ version of the Eagles (spoiler: my #1). The Vikings have good players throughout that defense, elevated by one unit playing amazing (their two edge rushers). Their offense has few weaknesses, and a QB playing really well and clearly being elevated by one of the better #1/#2 WR combos (and the best receiver still, in my view). The Vikings enter the playoffs in a cold spot, but I still think are a cut above the four other NFC playoff teams below them. There's also still to me enough trust in this coaching staff to believe Week 18 to be the fluke, and not the magic of Weeks 1-17.

2.) Detroit Lions  =  15-2  (564-332)

I forgot to mention in that Vikings section that the other reason we shouldn't be so quick to mock Darnold, is my Word was that Lions defensive performance beautiful. Yes, we know about all the guys they've lost on that side of the ball, but given how good their offense is, the margin of error on the defensive side is giant. And with Aaron Glenn calling the shots and that secondary playing above their heads, they can easily meet that bar. The offense is still amazing. Yes, if you can consistently pressure Goff his level will drop a lot, but few teams can consistently pressure him given teh strength of the Lions OL and the quick-game taht Ben Johnson often turns to when expecting the heat (granted, it at times doesn't pay off - see the early drives of the Week 18 game). What's been really nice to see this year is how they've expanded the utility and therefore value of Jameson Williams. This Lions team is stacked, and would be #1 if Aiden Hutchinson was healthy. That's just a fact.

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  14-3  (463-303)

I'm writing this assuming Jalen Hurts will be back, but his continued presence in concussion protocol is concerning for sure. But, if we assume he does play, I do think the Eagles are the best team in the NFL. It is amazing how quickly they were able to replace Kelce, shuffle a few other pieces, adn return so quickly to being one of the league's best OLs. Devonta Smith's best year to date has added another layer to the offense, as of course has Saquon (aided by that prior mentioned amazing OL). The defense may not have the pass rush of the 2022 unit, but their secondary is better - both in personnel and scheme. It took a while to mesh, but they are the league's best secondary at this point. The team is battle tested - rolling the Rams in LA, fairly convincingly beating the Ravens in Baltimore, destroying that media-darling Cincinnati team in Cincinnati. Their only real blemish was a beatdown in Tampa, but both Brown and Smith missed that game. The other two losses they could've easily won, and there's very few wins that they came all that close to losing. People are loathe to give Sirianni much credit, and to be fair the two coordinators deserve a ton of praise, but say what you want about him, but he went 26-5 from the start of 2022 through the 10-1 start in 2023, then after a very rocky 3-8 stretch, has gone 12-1 since - basically a 38-6 run outside the messy end of 2023. Hard to argue with that track record.

NFL 2024: Final Power Rankings & the Rest

32.) Tennessee Titans  =  3-14  (311-460)

Just a completely lost year, where at least they get their reward of hte #1 pick. Granted, in a year where that isn't all that exciting, but the biggest gap they had was a lack of any real potential at QB. This year proved firmly Will Levis is not it. There's also a clear lack of playmakers, and a barren defense aside from a couple pieces (the ageless Jeffrey Simmons, notably). Also, no idea of Brian Callahan is just over his head or needs time to do better...

31.) New York Giants  =  3-14  (273-415)

That 45-point outburst cost them the #1 pick, but this still ends up the worst Giants team in their history. Just a dud from the beginning - so incredible predictable the second they just rolled over Daniel Jones for another year. Of course, the Giants repeated that mistake in another way by confirming that they are planning to keep Daboll and Schoen for another year. This will be a theme with a few other teams **cough, Colts, cough** but just depressing news if you are a Giants fan. A true reset is needed (again).

30.) New England Patriots  =  4-13  (289-417)

Still not sure what the Patriots expected from Jerod Mayo? This was a talentless team aside from Maye's flashes and Christian Gonzalez (great player) and while there were some apparent locker room troubles and what-not, this is also a first year head coach. Robert Kraft owns all this now. Brady is gone. Belichick is gone. Mayo was Kraft's choice - so I guess kudos for Kraft for not doubling down but man there's a lot of spotlight on them now.

29.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  4-13  (320-435)

Doug Pederson got the axe, which we've all expected for a long time. He probably expected it for a long time. What I can't get my head around is what the possible reason is for keeping Trent Baalke at this point. Baalke living decades off of a couple 49ers drafts and Jim Harbaugh's brilliance is staggering at this point. Their longer term outlook will really just amount to if Trevor Lawrence is salvageable. 

28.) Cleveland Browns  =  3-14  (258-435)

I still have no idea what the goal was of moving away from Jameis for the last month. I assume Deshaun won't be back. But I shouldn't really assume these things when we're dealing with Jimmy Haslam here. The only area of positivity is that I'm glad Kevin Stefanski is keeping his job, Would love to see what he can do with real QB play for once. The problem is not sure where that QB stability comes from. If any team is going to take a run on JJ McCarthy, this one makes sense, even if I assume they'll just go for a QB at #2.

27.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  4-13  (309-434)

As I write this we don't know the fate of Antonio Pierce, but I'll assume he is gone. I'll further assume that I will be proven right that Tom Brady being "more involved" in the coaching search will not end well. I've avoided saying this for a while now, but Tom Brady being not only a minority owner, but apparently an "active" one is what is the nail in the coffin for any lingering Raiders love in my heart. I'll cherish 2000-2002 and 2016 up until Derek Carr breaking his leg. Everything else and the future of the team? Good riddance.

26.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-12  (338-398)

It's funny looking back on how good they were those first two weeks. We should have all known it wouldn't be sustainable - given how paper thin the roster is and that they were doing historically efficient things those first two games. It crashed, it imploded and now they're stuck with finally having the check come due on the salary cap while looking for a new coach. This most recent draft looks nice, which helps, but they'll need 1-2 more of those for any lasting impact.

25.) New York Jets  =  5-12  (345-364)

Hopefully for their sake the Rodgers era is over. I say this because I still like some of the bones of the team. Of course, there have been some troubling signs with Sauce and Garrett Wilson and what-not - but I think that's mostly their own issues with the Rodgers circus. So on the one hand, out of the bevy of "5 or fewer wins" teams, I think the Jets could have a fairly bright future... but there's the Woody Johnson factor as well and how much of a mess he seems to be - in other words I fully buy that story of them not trading for a guy due to his Madden score.

24.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-12  (341-534)

What a strange year for the Panthers. They were historically bad for the first few weeks, benched their #1 pick from last year (deservedly), got a couple small wins then continued to be historically poor. It all turned around when Andy Dalton got injured which pushed Bryce back in (to be clear: from everything we know there was no push to return to Bryce absent the injury) and suddenly, he looks good, poised and calm. The team makes sense offensively. The defense is still putrid, but they finally have their own draft capital back to make some changes there. It does seem like Dave Canales is good.

23.) Chicago Bears  =  5-12  (310-370)

Who they hire will be a fascinating storyline. Caleb showed flashes but needs some reigning in. What also needs support is how to use the weapons and make things easy on a QB. I assume they'll go down the McVay/Shanahan-tree route, but in this case I think that makes a lot of sense. The defense took a step back this year, but did rebound to be decent in the back half of the season. The toughest part for the Bears right now is how stacked the rest of that division is at the moment, but things change quickly.

22.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-9  (377-427)

I can't even put into words how disappointing it is to see Jim Irsay just say he plans to run it back. For what? I can someone see a path to viability on saying Steichen deserves more time - this is not a talented team in any way but has somehow won 16 games the last two seasons. But to keep Ballard? He's botched so many picks. He's made some awful QB decisions. He's drafted so few real game changes - and that was supposed to be his main calling card. There is no reason for Ballard to be given another year. But so it goes in Irsay-land.

21.) Dallas Cowboys  =  7-10  (350-468)

It will be interesting if McCarthy keeps his job because of some late season Cooper Rush-led friskiness and McCarthy's ability to point at defensive injuries and issues as a fail point over his predictable offense. There is some truth to all of that, the 2024 Cowboys were dealt a poor hand. Critics would argue that this wasn't a great hand to begin with. All I know is hopefully Prescott stays healthy enough next year for the inevitable six Cowboys primetime games.

20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  8-9  (389-423)

I'm so glad this Falcons team didn't sneak into the playoffs. Yes, the Bucs didn't cover themselves in glory either, but this Falcons team is worse. More exciting with Penix, sure - and man did Penix have some beautiful throws - but not so much better. The defense still has so many holes and pain points. The pass rush remains a never-ending mystery in Atlanta. But an offense with Penix, throwing to London, Pitts and Bijan can be dynamic in 2025.

19.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-9  (338-404)

This Tyreek mess is a difficult one because on the one hand keeping a disgruntled receiver has proven to just not work, but on the other, so much of the offense revolves around Tyreek's speed opening space for others. This offense was already showing signs of being "figured out" already when it comes to those giant YAC plays that dominated in 2023. We have to hope for some better Tua health in 2025, along with stability on defense. This isn't a bad team, but how they handle the Tyreek situation is for sure an inflection point.

18.) San Francisco 49ers  =  6-11  (389-436)

I'm ranking this mostly on my view of how the team performed in 2024, not as an outlook for 2025. If the latter, they would top this list. Many have noted the similarities between this team and the 2020 49ers - the last 49ers team coming off of a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs that was beset with an incredible string of injuries (Garoppolo, Bosa to name a few). That 49ers team rebounded nicely. The main difference is the 2021 49ers had a mid-sized contract at QB and a lot more other talent around him than what the 2025 49ers may look like if they have to pay Purdy. I still think pay him, but they have to nail the 2025 draft.

17.) Arizona Cardinals  =  8-9  (400-379)

The Cardinals end the season with by far the best point differential in the division - a team that at their best were capable of blowing teams out, but at their worst capable of scoring less than 10 points against Seattle. Kyler had a nice year. I believe in Gannon as a coach. A lot of their young players excite me. Biggest worry is really what is Kyler's ceiling, truthfully. There's a lot to like about parts of their 2025 outlook, but I can't get that lingering issue out of my mind.

16.) Seattle Seahawks  =  10-7  (375-368)

In the end, the OL was too poor (and consequently, Geno slightly too erratic), and the defense a bit too fallow to make ti work. Give them credit for the late season wins to get them back to ten wins. Tough for them when 9-8 was good enough for a wild card two years ago for them. Such is life in a stronger NFC. Much like in the Arizona section - I have the same questions on if Geno ever has the ceiling, and in the Seahawks case, age is a concern there too. They have some decisions to make too at other positions - I wouldn't be shocked with a Metcalf trade as it's fairly clear they see JSN as the better long term go-to-receiver.

15.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  9-8  (472-434)

I'll use this space to address the rest controversy: the Bengals fans, players, coaches, everyone needs to shut up. If you don't like the Chiefs resting players and letting the Broncos walk them, then win more games. For 2025, whether Tee Higgins get re-signed or not, maybe don't start 0-2 for a fourth straight year. Maybe take early parts of the season seriously (and that applies to the offense too). Don't lose five home games. Just be better. As for the team itself, they need to re-sign Tee. The Eagles showed you can pay two receivers - you have to couple it with drafting way better than the Bengals have, but the Bengals should set themselves the challenge of just drafting better.

Ranking the Playoff Teams - will go into more detail later in the week.

AFC

7.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  10-7  (380-347)

6.) Houston Texans  =  10-7  (372-372)

5.) Denver Broncos  =  10-7  (425-311)

4.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  11-6  (402-301)

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  12-5  (518-361)

2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  15-2  (385-326)

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  13-4  (525-368)

NFC

7.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-7  (367-386)

6.) Washington Commanders  =  12-5  (485-391)

5.) Green Bay Packers  =  11-6  (460-338)

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-7  (502-385)

3.) Minnesota Vikings  =  14-3  (432-332)

2.) Detroit Lions  =  15-2  (564-332)

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  14-3  (463-303)

Ranking the Wild Card Games

6.) Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)  @  Houston Texans (10-7)  (Sat, 4:30 - CBS)

It's getting a lot of play that this is the eighth time the Texans have made the playoffs, and the eighth time they've gotten the red-head step-child 4:30pm Saturday slot. And you know what - they've deserved it every time, and partially because the team they're paired with is also fairly staid and boring (see the 2015 Chiefs, 2016 Raiders starting their 3rd string QB, 2023 Browns, etc.). No different here. The Chargers are ruthlessly, efficiently boring. The Texans are just sad in how they haven't taken off. This deserves to be the 4:30 Saturday game.

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)  @  Baltimore Ravens (12-5)  (Sat, 8:00 - Prime)

It's weird how little excitement I have for this - you would think the best rivalry of the 2000s getting another playoff game would be higher up... but we don't need this again. I guess there is a 10% chance the early season Steelers return but we saw this matchup in this stadium a few weeks ago and despite the Ravens not playing their best they won easily. More this is just a sad reminder of how great their old games used to be.

4.) Green Bay Packers (11-6)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)  (Sun, 4:25 - FOX)

This assumes Jalen Hurts plays. If he doesn't put this at #6 just by how sad it would be. But assuming Hurts does play, I just don't think this is a good matchup for the Packers. On paper it reads like a nice game, but the Packers relative defensive weakness is rush defense, and the Eagles secondary could create a lot of problems for the Packers who will be without Christian Watson. I can see this just being a grinding 27-17 type win for the Eagles that isn't as close as that.

3.) Denver Broncos (10-7)  @  Buffalo Bills (13-4)  (Sun, 1:00 - CBS)

On the other hand, I do think the Broncos can put a scare into the Bills. The biggest way to beat the Broncos is pressure Bo Nix, and the Bills pass rush quality varies a ton week to week. If it's a bad week then Nix could have success. This is becoming too much of a mini-preview, so I'll couple that optimism of a close game by the cold water of me just not liking the 1pm Sunday slot (the last such game of the year at 1pm on Sunday...).

2.) Minnesota Vikings (14-3)  @  Los Angeles Rams (10-7)  (MNF - ESPN)

A rematch of a fun Thursday Night game that the Rams won (in Minnesota), there's just a lot riding here especially on the Vikings slide. Does Sam Darnold return to his great form of 2024 or was Week 18 a sign of the old Darnold coming back? Can the Flores defense confuse / neutralize the Rams offense in a way they couldn't in that regular season matchup. Can the Vikings block the Rams renewed strong DL. Plus add to it the Manningcast and you get a fun one.

1.) Washington Commanders (12-5)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)  (SNF - NBC)

Surprising maybe, but the more I think about this game the more I love it. The Bowles crazy-blitz defense against one of the more poised rookie QBs we've seen. That crazy Bucs offense that can be fun and maddening, both in entertaining ways. The Evans vs. Lattimore matchup. If there's any game that ends 38-34 I think it is this one. And neither defense is really good enough for it to end 17-13. Sign me up for this one, I really hope it doesn't disapppoint.

My Top 20 TV Shows of 2024, #5 - #1

5.) Hacks (Season 3, HBO)

After what I thought was a slight dropoff in its second season, man was Hacks back it its sharpest best in its third season. At this point, Jean Smart's brilliance on the show is understood, but I thought this was the best season for Hannah Einbeinder's Ava in her inability to make inroads without Deborah. I loved the overall storyline of Deborah's long, drawn out affair with wanting, trying, losing and finally winning the late night job. Even if the prestige of late night is way less in teh real world, it made perfect sense for a character like Deborah to try so hard for it. While the season also sidelined Marcus a bit, I really enjoyed the storyline of Jimmy and the Kayla as the two in-over-their-heads assistants. The comedy was great as always, but the show also I felt did its best job yet at tugging at heartstrings. So great to just have this show in our lives.

4.) What We Do in the Shadows (Season 6, Hulu)

To me the best comedy on TV has been this zany, played-as-straight "what if vampires were just part of the world" for a while now, but its final season was truly special and brilliant. It's almost like the fact the show was finally ending allowed the writers to just get way zanier about things. The idea to make Guillermo work in the real world, and somehow have each of the others just be part of the office was incredible. Similarly so were episodes like them experiencing March Madness, to so much more. I don't know if any sitcom plot worked better and was funnier than them building a fake Railroad company to give a sad human a job - that was one of the funniest single episodes I've ever seen from the show. While of course I'm sad the show is over, I'm both glad that it existed and glad that they took the end of the show as a catalyst to go deep into their bag.

3.) Fargo (Season 5, FX)

The first year I ever did this list was in 2014, and my #1 show that year was the original season of Fargo (back when it was in theory, just a miniseries). While the second season was basically as good (many thought better), the second was a clear step back and the fourth was just a snooze. It seemed crazy that we would get a fifth season of Fargo, but not only did we, but it was the best season of the show since the second one. What I really loved about this season, other than the best use of winter weather since S2, is it pared the show back a lot. It was a fairly simple story, but told just excellently - much like the original movie and show. 

Like the great first and second season, man did this one have just a great cavalcade of characters, from the central points of Dot, Lorraine and the Sheriff (just an amazing Jon Hamm performance). Juno Temple was born to play that role with that accent, so perfectly mixing precociousness and seriousness. The random weirdos were great here, like a perfect use of Joe Keery as the Sheriff's son, to a great pairing with the local cops between Lamorne Morris and Richa Moorjani. The shohow visually looked stunning, and the drama was as tight as ever - with some real stakes and horror at its strongest parts. I really can't point to any single element of the season that was not just super well done, well acted, well written or well shot. No idea if there will be a sixth iteration, but at this point sign me up as a "you betcha" to that idea. 

2.) Ripley (NETFLIX)

It's funny talking about this right after Fargo, as just like many people were horrified that some TV person would think to take a movie masterpiece and recreate it with Fargo, so too were people here. But if anything, I think you can make very good arguments that the Ripley show was better than the movie, or at least a better adaptation of the book. The problem with the movie? Everything's too pretty, bright, beautiful and alluring. This is a dark story and both putting it in pristine black and white, and getting a truly devious performance from Andrew Scott as the notorious Ripley. Dakota Fanning was also incredible. Honestly, the casting and acting was note perfect to the darkness of the actual story.

I thought I would find the black and white thing a bit annoying but honestly, it worked perfectly. It made this feel like a play, like a story out of time. If anything, the show looked sharper and more captivating in the black and white. It was on the characters to give the story color and they did it brilliantly. What's also great was the angles it was shot at, the cinematography was perfect. And man the way it peeled back to every corner of the story. The advantage of TV is having eight hours vs. two for a movie - this had Breaking Bad type moments of showing the step by step of each part of his ruse, how he deliberated and executed against a few tough spots. It went into detail around how menacing and intelligently conniving Ripley really was. If anything, the lasting part of this show is me hoping other Steve Zaillian type auters try this with other old movies. 

1.) Shogun (Season 1, FX)

Even before Shogun aired it was getting amazing reviews from people that normally are a bit slow to give such high praise. It was billed as FX's version of a Game of Thrones, with surprisingly the scenery, budget and so much else that a channel like FX normally gets dwarfed by HBO. The show then aired, and was as good as advertised. It was sprawling, it was epic, it was dramatic, it was poetic. It had amazing central performances from Hiroyuki Sanada, Anna Sawai, Tadanobu Asano, and even the anjin himself, Cosmo Jarvis. The show was unrelenting in telling the story from the Japanese perspective, and did it so well.

Where Shogun really excelled was showcasing a real world in exacting detail - the traditions, the scheming, the battles, the mysticism of Shogunate-era Japan. The politics were clear, but the scheming stayed intelligent and levels ahead. The writing (admittedly, when I say writing I mean the English translation) was pointed and poignant - with some incredible parables and dramatic monologues to rival a Game of Thrones or other legendary shows. Everything was intentional, down to the great idea to turn Western Colonialism on its head where the Anjin was continually surprised by how well functioning and fancy Japan was, vs him being shown as an insolent rapscallion at first. it took every problematic issue from the short-lived Shogun series in the 1980s and turned it completely into something beautiful.

I could've listened to Lord Toronaga plot for days, and Anna Sawai's Mariko working through various alliances and histories to find herself in a position of power. Yet let's not look past the action scenes, from the battle being interrupted by an earthquake, to the actual sieges and samurai work. It is truly staggering they were able to concoct all this with an FX-type budget. At the end of the day, it was going to take something truly special for any other show to take this spot that Shogun firmly in February and never looked back.

My Top 20 TV Shows of 2024, #10 - #6

10.) Baby Reindeer (NETFLIX)

The actress that played the love interest was so good at being so creepy and disturbing. It really made this show of a failed joke turned obsession gone wrong into the best type of light horror. The actor central to it you could tell was so personally invested into the story in how carefully he went through each step. It isn't easy to tell a story like this in 2024 and have it come off fair and well drawn out rather than overly abrasive / anti-the woman in the story, so taht's another area of great praise for Richard Gadd's great show. Also, I really loved how carefully it told the story of unease and emotional distress resulting in his dalliance with a transgender woman, but telling it super fairly. This was a great show to say you can touch on dark subjects with aplomb in today's world.

9.) A Man on the Inside (NETFLIX)

Sue me, I think this was better than most seasons of The New Place. I like that Michael Schur went away from the gimmickry, the progressive silliness, and just went to doing a show with ridiculous heart. Ted Danson played that role so well - no, not the role of the undercover private detective, the one of teh caring old man in his twilight years mixing with so many others in their twilight years. Mike Schur filled that golden years home with so many incredible characters. So much emotional poignancy in all those stories, while still maintaining some levity. Mary Elizabeth Ellis was great also as the daughter, as was Stephanie Beatriz in a role so opposite to hers on Brooklyn Nine-Nine. There was no room for snark here, just heart and goodness. It's like Schur took Parks and Recreation, took half the humor out, but someone doubled the heart, and it still worked magically.

8.) The Sympathizer (HBO) 

The story of a Vietnam refugee who turns spy but gets coaxed into not being a spy by becoming involved in a movie production about the Vietnam War - all of it sounds crazy. It was played as such, down to the point of Robert Downey Jr playing the five or six recurring non-Vietnamese characters. Describe it to anyone and it sounds insane - other than I guess the pull of Downey (who helped make the show happen in the first place). That said, if we get past all of that, this was a great story about everything from loneliness to the pull of home, to realizing how the other side is not too different, to propoganda from the war, both in Vietnam and in the USA. It was an award winning book turned show, and the show lived up to the combination of zaniness and poignancy of the book. The parts that didn't really work for me was teh spy stuff (including the CIA Agent played by Downey - easily the worst of his various roles). The best parts was the satire on the shallowness of some of the sympathizers in the US. All in all, it was a fascinating, thought-provoking, and weirdly complex tale.

7.) The Penguin (HBO)

It's funny, with Marvel series after Marvel series alternating between being largely forgettable or just bad, I was kidn of out on Superhero stories, but heard some early good press on The Penguin, and then buckled in for what was just a fantastic piece of television. Colin Farrell and Cristina Milloti were brilliant as the two leads, as were a bunch of the other character actor types. The story was told painstakingly, but with great backstory - like the semi-bottle episode of Sofia Falcone's childhood and time in the mental asylum. The darkness throughout gave such great gravity to it. It's rare you can combine so deftly the great fun that the actors were clearly having with teh darkness and seriousness of the tone of the story, but it worked perfectly well here. I don't know if there will be a season 2, or it's just a lead-in to the next Batman movie (ending it with the shot of the bat signal was just perfect), but wherever The Penguin and Sofia Gigante reappear next, I'm in. I just hope it's played with this same combination of humor, farce and drama.

6.) The Gentlemen (NETFLIX)

I don't know if the fact I've seen the movie helped or hurt in my enjoyment of The Gentlemen. Of course the plot is super similar (but more exhaustive and wider - makes sense given they have more time), but if anything I found this better. The added time let a complex plot from the movie breathe more, giving us more time with ridiculous side characters (the entirety of wrestling subplot, the hangers-on at the weed farm), and more time to watch the plot slowly unfurl. The acting was great as well - Theo James was better here than on White Lotus in my view, but if anything Daniel Ings as the coke-fiend brother and Kaya Scodelario as the crime lordess stole the show. I could watch another season of this easily. Sure, I put a bit of a demerit for basically rewriting your own movie to be a TV show, but hard to argue that the show was excellent.

My Top 20 TV Shows of 2024, #15 - #11

15.) Nobody Wants This (NETFLIX)

I will watching anything with Kristen Bell, and similarily a show with Jonah Ryan and Willa playing the side characters will make it even more of a must see. So this show was right up my alley. And it paid off - it's a fairly small, fairly traditional romantic sitcom storyline of a girl falling for a guy from a wholly different backgroudn, but the side aspects were so enjoyable. I also appreciate they teased the two siblings (Willa and Jonah) having a crush on each other, but never doing anything with it. Kristen Bell can still play amazingly funny, and it was great to see good old Spiros Vondas himself back on teh stage playing the aggreived Jewish dad. I guess I was also happy this show opened my eyes to the concept of hot, young rabbis.

14.) House of the Dragon (Season 2, HBO)

It became a running joke about how little actually happens in Season 2 of the show. Season 1 covered a ton, and Season 2 started with us almost at war and ended with us almost at war, but now with more dragons and dragon riders. Yes, some of the plot was off - either slow or completely devoid of logic. But you know what? I don't care - at its best House of the Dragon can still hit some truly high peaks - from the for battle where we really see dragon on dragon for the first time, to the beautiful, mystical scene or Rhaenyra calling out for Vermithor in valeryon in the dragon lair. No show looks better. The acting is still top notch (even if the plot and dialogue is fairly middling). I'm still super excited to see what this show will be in Season 3, assuming you know we actually get around to war this time.

13.) Interior Chinatown (Hulu)

 

At its best, Interior Chinatown was a searing portroyal of the Model Minority problem the asian community has faced, the namelessness of so many in that community. It played great games with the politics of that community. It did many of these things so well all teh while telling it from this bizarre point of view. It featured some great central performances - from using Ronny Chieng so well, to a great performance from start to finish from Chloe Bennett. I just wish it was 10% less weird and/or less obvious about its conceit of it all being a fake story. After an episode or two that all was pretty clear. Still, it mined a lot of humor and great moments from it. This was a spectacular show being hidden by merely a very good one. I hope we continue to get these swing for the fences type shows, even if most won't be as good or memorable or, mainly, fun as Interior Chinatown was.

12.) The Bear (Season 3, Hulu)

My #1 show from last year was similarly thought of by many people as being excellent. Many of those same people called out some of the shows flaws in Season 3, just like I am here. It still remains impeccably well acted, and the combination of its frenzied and exacting style is so unique. Few shows making anything look as good as cooking does here. But it is undoubtable that the show got a bit too high on its own supply this season - from bringing in so many celebrity chefs as guests (rather than just making them up with actual actors) that blur the lines a bit with the reality of the show vs. 4th wall breaking. Case in point, bringing actual chefs on the show highlights the absurdity that even in Carmy is brilliant, the rest of the chefs just don't have the training to successfully run a tasting menu restaurant that changes recipes daily. The show tried to have its cake and eat it too. Anyway despite all of that, its highs were still super high. Their impeccable ability to avoid a Carmy and Sydney romance, and similarly fall into a lot of other cliche traps. It's just this was the first season I found the stuff outside the restaurant more compelling than what happened inside it.

11.) The Diplomat (Season 2, NETFLIX)

Sure, teh show could get a touch too complicated at times, and I'll never forgive them for the fact it was only six episodes, because man a well written political / spy drama is catnip, especially when its so well acted as this one. Of course, Keri Russell is the star, and this is a performance that honestly I feel like is better than she was in The Americans, but it was all the others that made the show even better this season - from a far better use of Hal (I thought, way less overbearing this time), to the great addition of Vice President in Allison Janney. I still have no idea if politics works this way at all - especially the around the clock access and involvement the Ambassador to the UK has to the Prime Minister, but whatever, I'll let taht slide. The show, the emotions, the drama, it's all just too good. Just wish we had a few more episodes.

My Top 20 TV Shows of 2024, #20 - #16

There's a weird dichotomy this year. This might have my favorite/best #1 since maybe Succession Season 1 in 2018 (quickly, in past years it was Chernobyl in 2019, and then Tiger King, Only Murders in the Building Season 1, Stranger Things Season 4 and The Bear Season 2). The #1 was one of the great TV series I've ever seen. The rest of the Top-20 is a bit of a step down. I don't know if it was just a slight lack of original story, or that a lot of them happen on Apple+ which I don't really watch. The other thought is this is just a lingering impact of the dual strikes in 2023 that pushed and delayed a lot of productions. Anyway, as normal we start with what's fallen off since 2023 - a lot of the list"

Shows Ended/Were a Mini-Series:

#20 - Perry Mason (cancelled)

#18 - Party Down (assuming it won't come back)

#16 - A Murder at the End of the World (miniseries)

#14 - Justified: Primeval (again, assuming it won't come back)

#13 - Winning Time (regrettably, cancelled)

#9 - Telemarketers (documentary)

#7 - The Great (still annoyed it got cancelled)

#6 - Bodies (miniseries)

#5 - The Fall of the House of Usher (miniseries)

#4 - Succession (ended)

Shows that Didn't Air in 2024

#17 - I Think You Should Leave

#15 - Beef

#12 - It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

#11 - The Righteous Gemstones

#4 - Babylon Berlin

#2 - The Last of Us

20.) Under the Bridge (Hulu)

This was a good show in what could've been a great show's body - taking a very real story of teenage bullying, class, race, and what-not, and putting some great actors about it, but leaning more into the white perspectives rather than the real story of the class / race / bullying part. It's not that it shied away from it - the characters in the foster home who bully the Indian girl and then murder her are told with some deftness to not make them out as complete monsters (well, aside from the rich girl), but I just wish more of the show focused on that. 50% of the show was incredible, the other 50% spent on Riley Keough and Lily Gladstone was merely above average, and probably would've been worse had it not been played by two great actresses.

19.) A Good Girl's Guide to Murder  (NETFLIX)

Hey, it's another show about an investigation of a murder that rocked a small town (this one a fictional story of course). But this was investigated by a precocious high schooler. It also mixed in race slightly. It was almost the opposite, in a way, of Under the Bridge - this was lighter, more investigative, more Veronica Mars, less Mare of Eastown (though neither of these shows rose to the heights of those two). I really enjoyed the lead performance - the rare case of a US actor playing someone from England. Also enjoyed the slow pace of the story - it felt more like mystery shows of old, teasing little by little until the last couple episodes. At the end, it was a bit too small, and the peformances a bit too inconsistent to go higher, but for what was a PG-13 type show, this was excellent.

18.) Letterkenny (Season 13, Hulu)

This was the year Letterkenny, that weird Canadian comedy that is far smarter and sharper than anyone would think, finally came to an end. Realistically, it could've probably gone on much longer - they were not losing their fastball for a second. If anything, the creative minds behind the show (Jared Keeso & Jacob Tierney - playing Wayne and Glen) showed they could branch off, with the great spinoff show Shoresy. Anyway, it's hard to do a last season right when you only have 6 epsidoes, but they came as close as possible, giving every part of the show spotlights as much as sendoffs. They made this random town in Canada seem so much more alive over the years. Yes it helps that the average woman in Letterkenny I geuss is a model (never a bad running joke) but the heart of the show was the main 8-9 people who were there from the start, and made the show at the end. Long live this weird, Canadian gem of a show.

17.) Three Body Problem (Season 1, NETFLIX)

It's a bit weird that the sci-fi aspect of the show that is the central problem (a society from a different galaxy far in teh future infiltrates the present to inhibit overly fast progress of the current earth) I found way more compelling than the conceit of the "game" that they all play that reveals this. The interpersonal stuff was interesting. The visual masturbation that was the game was pure Ready Player One. Still, the showe ended in a great spot, and from what I understand of the books we've barely begun to scratch the surface of how zany this well acted, dramatic pierce is. If this was Benioff & Weiss's return to TV, at least they waited for something worth coming back for.

16.) Only Murders in the Building (Season 4, Hulu)

As I mentioned earlier on the reason I find this entire set of 20 a bit weaker than in years past is because of shows like Only Murders - returning shows that were usually a bit better in years past. It wasn't like this season was bad. There were some great elements - I thought over time the three "stunt casting" characters played by Eugene Levy, Eva Longoria and Zach Galifanakis did work, but I found the humor just less successful than in years past. There is still enough chemistry between the three leads - and this year had probably the best solo Mabel story of any, but even the mystery this year seemed more forced / slightly too confusing than in years past, especially since the murderer isn't someone we really got to know or care about. The show isn't done, and I'm hopeful they can clean up a bit of the excess fluff for a Season 5 to make what was a great show that has dropped a bit towards a good show back into a great show that can match up with its three leads.