Tier I - The "It's Lonely at the 1-loss Bottom" Duo
32.) Carolina Panthers = 1-7 (124-271)31.) Tennessee Titans = 1-6 (120-196)
The Patriots close win gets them out of this bottom two for a week, replaced by the Titans - the classic team that loses some close games early and instead of that being a sign of better things to come, they start imploding. Granted that loss was about one unit specifically imploding in a historic way - but from the time they took a 10-0 lead against the Bills, they've been outscored 86-14. It's early, but I do worry if Brian Callahan is a bit overwhelmed. As for the Panthers, not great when a 14-point loss where the other team is openly mocking you, and your QB goes 24-37 for 224 yards and 2 TDs / 2 INTs is seen as a clear step-up in performance. Just nothing on that roster.
Tier II - The "Northeast Corridor of Sadness" Trio
30.) New England Patriots = 2-6 (127-197)
29.) New York Giants = 2-6 (117-175)
28.) New York Jets = 2-6 (150-170)
The Patriots won that game, but I still don't like the vibes there - from the whole 'soft' controversy, and some even rumblings of a shock Mayo firing (even if those rumors in the moment seemed spurious at best). More broadly, if they're huge upside in performance is a close win against one of other worst teams in the NFL, I am not going to move them up for it. The Giants showed some life in that game, but their offense is just not good enough with Daniel Jones. That was a good Jones performance and didn't score more than 23 points. The defense and pass rush is insane, but we're also seeing more and more problems in a barren secdonary. For the Jets, this is just a disaster and the most predictable part was their defense collapsing after the Saleh firing. Not to say I have an ounce of sympathy. They laid their bed with Rodgers, they have to live with it. This really is just the most fascinatingly fun implosion in recent years.
Tier III - The "Sad Dome Teams" Duo
27.) New Orleans Saints = 2-6 (185-206)
26.) Las Vegas Raiders = 2-6 (144-210)
It's almost ludicrous to think the Saints were not only 2-0, but a dominant 2-0 with an offense that couldn't be stopped. Six weeks later they're playing 3rd string QBs and scoring 8 points in a game. Derek Carr seems to be on the way back, but to what end at this point? May as well see if Spencer Rattler is anything (assuming that the benching was a 1-week thing). For the Raiders, I guess I would say the same about just playing McConnell, but it's pretty clear that he doesn't have a long term future, and at least the team is a lot more enjoyable with Minshew Mania in there. Brock Bowers is great but they have so many other holes on that roster. A smarter team would absolutely trade Maxx Crosby.
Tier IV - The "It Wasn't Supposed to Go This Way" Trio
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 2-6 (172-224)
24.) Cleveland Browns = 2-6 (138-185)
23.) Miami Dolphins = 2-5 (97-157)
All three of these teams came into the season with hope. For the Jags that 2022 was reality, and not 2023. For the Browns and Dolphins, that they would continue to build on playoff seasons. Instead, all three have been nightmarish. The Jags defense is just so terrible if they aren't getting pass rush, which when their top guys are high-variance players (Walker, Allen), it leads to games like that where Malik Willis it hitting bombs. For the Browns, nice for them to have a real offense for once. I guess there is some upward potential but the AFC middle class is way too packed to think they can make their way back in it. The Dolphins, by luxury of already having had their bye, I guess have a slightly better shot but those high-YAC plays that McDaniel could so often dial up didn't magically re-appear with Tua back, which is very concering. The floor of that offense is back to being respectable, but it may just be that his motion heavy scheme was "solved" to the point the ceiling isn't 45 points anymore.
Tier V - The "Somehow Not Worse" Duo
22.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-4 (144-174)
21.) Indianapolis Colts = 4-4 (175-172)
The Rams should be a disaster. They had woeful injury luck. They have limited defensive players and a make-shift line. Somehow, someway, they are 0.5 games back in that division with Kupp and Nacua back on the field. Long term wise, they might have been better off losing and trading Kupp, but there is a real scenario they steal that division at 10-7 or something if the 49ers can't figure their shit out. Stafford is clearly still good enough, and McVay still good enough. For the Colts, I don't know how a team that looks so bad down to down, on both sides of the ball, is not only still .500, but still with a positive point differential. They aren't bad enough for their own good. Richardson is trying to bring them down, but somehow, someway they remain stubbornly competitive. The worst outcome for them is a 8-9 season where Richardson doesn't make any noticeable improvement from where he is right now, but the record and close point differential keeps the Ballard / Steichen regime around longer. I guess it should be their credit that they mysteriously don't get blown out, but realistically it is just annoying to watch this masquerade.
Tier VI - The "Downwardly Mobile Contenders" Quadro
20.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-4 (150-198)
19.) Cincinnati Bengals = 3-5 (195-203)
18.) Seattle Seahawks = 4-4 (190-195)
17.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 4-4 (235-213)
I guess call this the more salvageable version of the trio of the Browns, Jags and Dolphins further up. All four of these teams are at really precarious positions right now. The Cowboys seem broken, with only the return of Micah Parsons as anything of a positive to look to change this around. Prescott doesn't trust anyone not named Lamb and is becomign way too aggressive. For the Bengals, I actually think they still have a path (will require the Broncos/Chargers/Colts contingent to slip up) but that defense is just atrocious at this point. Higgins getting back healthy helps, but what was clear in that loss was they just are inferior in total against the Eagles, a team most thought was on the way down. The Bengals should not be in that position. The Seahawks need to just erase that game from the records, chalk it up to the Bills playing at their best, and move on. The run defense remains a huge problem - not a good one to have when your two biggest division rivals are run-heavy. For the Bucs, that was a far better offensive output than I expected in the first game without both Evans and Godwin. If they can remain around .500 until Evans come back they have some upward potential, but the Wild Card race in the NFC may require 11 wins this year given the strength of the East and North.
Tier VII - The "Upwardly Mobile Contenders" Quadro
16.) Chicago Bears = 4-3 (163-119)
15.) Atlanta Falcons = 5-3 (194-195)
14.) Los Angeles Chargers = 4-3 (132-91)
13.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-4 (178-205)
The Bears lost, but showed me a lot in that game, especially a red zone defense that kept it competitive. Waldron has to scheme up ways to give Caleb better protection though. That was a disaster, very reminiscent of their loss to the Texans earlier in the year. For the Falcons, it was nice to see Kyle Pitts have a great game, and Darnell Mooney continues to be a surprise star. The defesne still has issues, but the offense is now playing well enough to win enough shootouts to coast to that division - especially with a 2-0 record now against the Bucs. For the Chargers, another frustrating game on offense, but another game where the defense played well and, more importantly, no one on the defense got hurt. As long as they can remain healthy, they can remain a wild card team. For the Cardinals, they were my only real shock preseason playoff pick (I guess the Jags as well... oops...), and while I had them more as a 7th seed, they have a real shot at that division. Kyler is playing really well right now. Gannon is scheming a good defense. Talent limitations on the defensive side probably does cap their upside, but this is a team that can easily scratch its way to 10-7 in a division where they already have a head to head win over the 49ers in San Francisco.
Tier VIII - The "Defense-First Team? In This Economy?" Duo
12.) Denver Broncos = 5-3 (173-120)
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 6-2 (187-119)
At some point, it becomes clear this Broncos defense is just good enough to make up for the poor offense. That poor offense is able to consistently put up around 20 points even with Bo Nix still not looking all that great. With that defense, that is all you need. The Broncos, in a way foreign to Sean Payton may be a playoff team yet. Speaking of Payton, his old QB is balling out so far. he still holds onto the ball too long sometimes, and yes the Giants secondary was a mess, but that was a really strong Russ game. in the end, though, that defense will make or break the team, but so far it is far more in the make column. Some gaps in the secondary as well that are worth monitoring, but right now this is a team playing with such good precision.
Tier IX - The "Second Tier Contenders" Trio
10.) Minnesota Vikings = 5-2 (188-137)
9.) Washington Commanders = 6-2 (236-167)
8.) San Francisco 49ers = 4-4 (210-182)
The Vikings have obviously lost a bit of their shine in these last two games. The offense needs to do better in teh red zone and the defense needs to find a plan B if their blitzes aren't landing. I still think they've got enough runway to make the playoffs, but this has been a rough go the last few weeks. They get to beat up on the Colts as a get-right. For the Commanders, that was obviously a lucky win. They have to get better in the red zone. Two games now with way too many field goals. It's nice their offense can consistently move the ball but that inability to score TDs will bite them. The defense gets better every week however. The 49ers offense looked a lot better just running it outside. They got too far away from their roots, but this was a get-right game. Also encouraging are the reports of McCaffrey getting close to playing again, and even some hints that Dre Greenlaw could return in December. The division didn't run away from them, and they could take off here. Piersall being a reasonably good receiver also helps after the Aiyuk injury left them in theory short on wideouts.
Tier X - The "Good Record, but it Really Could go Either Way" Duo
7.) Houston Texans = 6-2 (188-179)
6.) Philadelphia Eagles = 5-2 (171-132)
Neither of these two teams are great despite their record, but they have the upside to play like their record. The Texans play way too mnay close games against bad teams. The pass rush is starting to really heat up with Anderson and Greenard. The OL continues to stink, and Diggs's injury could be a big factor. For the Eagles, they got so much shit the first few weeks its hard to remember that this is a very talented roster that at their best can just outplay teams on talent and some scheme. That beatdown of Cincinnati was a great example. Hurts looks way more in command and their OL has really settled down.
Tier XI - The "I Wish They Were Slightly Better" Duo
5.) Green Bay Packers = 6-2 (216-170)
4.) Baltimore Ravens = 5-3 (242-209)
The Packers defense took a week off this time, so it's nice that Josh Jacobs decided to have another monster game. The Jordan Love injuries are worrisome if they become something that just continues to linger as the season goes on. The Ravens just have to stop losing these games. The offense remains great (drops aside) but poor field position hampered them. Of course so did the pass defense. You have to hope the secondary gets better. The talent is still very much still there but their inability at times to stop top receivers is very worrisome. This is just a bizarre version of the Ravens - on pace for 484 points scored and 418 points allowed if this was the old 16-game season. Something a 2008-2012 Ravens fan would find mindblowing.
Tier XII - The "Real Teams" Trio
3.) Buffalo Bills = 6-2 (230-146)
2.) Detroit Lions = 6-1 (234-134)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 7-0 (173-123)
The Bills offense just looks so composed and complete with Cooper - even if he didn't do that much in the game. Everyone else's role just seems so much more defiend and proper. The defense was excellent as well, and will be getting Von Miller back just in time as well. They still have a habit of falling behind early too often, so it was nice to see them just dominate a team. The Lions are crazy at the moment. I still do worry when they have to play a top offense without Hutchinson. I still wish they went out and got a pass rusher, but their wins since Hutchinson went out probably exclude that as a possibility. For the Chiefs, at this point I feel like they're underrated. The defense is jsut simply excellent, in both scheme, coaching and personnel. The offense hasn't been great, but they've consistently moved the ball, rarely punted, and had soem really unfortunate turnover luck with so many batted ball interceptions. The Chiefs also have a cake schedule. I still doubt 17-0 is a thing, but a likely outcome at this point is probably 15-2.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 14-3
2.) Buffalo Bills = 13-4
3.) Houston Texans = 12-5
4.) Baltimore Ravens = 12-5
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 11-6
6.) Los Angeles Chargers = 11-6
7.) Cincinnati Bengals = 10-7
NFC
1.) Detroit Lions = 13-4
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 12-5
3.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-6
4.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-7
5.) Green Bay Packers = 12-5
6.) Washington Commanders = 11-6
7.) Minnesota Vikings = 11-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Pittsburgh Steelers (X-X), San Francisco 49ers (X-X)
15.) New Orleans Saints (2-6) @ Carolina Panthers (1-7) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) New England Patriots (2-6) @ Tennessee Titans (1-6) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Houston Texans (6-2) @ New York Jets (2-6) (TNF - Prime)
11.) Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) @ Cleveland Browns (2-6) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) (4:05 - CBS)
9.) Washington Commanders (6-2) @ New York Giants (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Dallas Cowboys (X-X) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-3) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Miami Dolphins (2-5) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (4-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-2) (SNF - NBC)
5.) Los Angeles Rams (3-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4) (4:25 - FOX)
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) (MNF - ESPN)
3.) Denver Broncos (5-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-3) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Chicago Bears (4-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-4) (4:05 - CBS)
1.) Detroit Lions (6-1) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2) (4:25 - FOX)
