On Nole and The Chase

"I want to first congratulate Nole for a great tournament. You are going to win this trophy [the US Open] and more slams very soon. I am sure of that. I also want to congratulate Nole too for his great attitude in losing a Grand Slam Final. I know how tough it can be, and you showed a great attitude, which is a great example for the kids."
- Rafael Nadal after winning the 2010 US Open,

Rafael Nadal never knew how true those words would be, and that less than a year later, it would be Novak trying to lift Rafa's spirits after beating him in a splendid US Open Final. Tennis is a sport that moves quickly, but usually not this quickly. It was only a year ago when the question "Does Rafa actually have a good chance to be better than Federer?" was a legitimate question. It still is, but there are more pressing issues. Rafael Nadal won the last three slams of 2010. He won the French Open without dropping a set (something he did in 2008 as well). He dropped just one set in his run to his first US Open title, being broken just 5 times in the entire tournament. He was the first man since Rod Laver to win three straight slams in the same season, and the first player EVER to win a slam on each surface in the same year (something that separates Rafa's 3-slam year from Federer's or Djokovic). Rafael Nadal, as he always does when he beats Djokovic and Murray, told Nole that he was sure he would win another slam. That he was too talented. That he was a great champion. Rafa is not #1 anymore, but he at least saw the next guy coming.

A year later, Novak Djokovic is 64-2, winning three slams and five more Masters 1000 events (the next best tournaments). He's 6-0 against Nadal on the year, all in finals. He's beaten him on hard court, grass, and even twice on clay, matches that were ironically the most one-sided of any of the six. Novak has had possibly the best year ever (although he really hasn't had too much better of a year than Federer in 2006). Novak owns Nadal. The head to head in early 2010 was 14-4, and by the end of 2010 it was still 16-7. Now it's 16-13. Now, Novak looks unbeatable, with a good enough serve, a great forehand, a better backhand, and an incredible return. He looks to be a complete player without weakness. Federer had a weakness. He didn't like backhands up high. Nadal could pound that weakness until it he won. Rafa doesn't have any such plan against Nole other than to just outplay him, and for 2011, he, and basically everyone else, could not.

This is really all Federer's fault (like most things in tennis, in my opinion). He created this monster, and he recharged it one year later. Djokovic prior to the 2010 US Open was known as an underachieving young player. Wildly talented, he made five straight semifinals from 2007-2008, at the age of 20-21. He won a slam at 20 (younger than Federer when he won his first). I always thought he was unfairly penned as underperforming, considering he was going up against Federer and Nadal. That said, he did have a penchant to lose close sets and choke at the worst times. The most notable example would be in his three successive US Open losses to Federer from 2007-2009. They played 10 sets. Federer won 9. Six of those sets ended either 7-6 or 7-5. Djokovic lost close sets like it was a disease. Djokovic also had an infuriating ability to retire from Grand Slam matches. All in all, Djokovic seemed like someone who didn't care hard enough about tennis to beat Federer and Nadal.

Then the 2010 US Open semifinal happened. In a match where he lost two of the first four sets 7-5, both times losing the 5-6 game on serve, he was about to choke again. Serving at 4-5, 15-40, Djokovic played two incredible points, mashing two forehand winners. He then broke Federer in the next game and served it out. Djokovic scored his first clutch win over Federer/Nadal in a Grand Slam (his 2008 win over Federer was later marred by Federer's bout with mono), in a match that in my opinion was better overall than the semifinal one year later, especially the 5th set. He held serve, literally, when facing incredible pressure. He manned up and downed a man who had made six straight US Open Finals. I'm convinced that the new Djokovic started that day. Ever since, he's always risen to the moment (save for two matches - the Final against Nadal and the French Open semi).

The creation of a tennis monster: the 5th set of the 2010 US Open Semifinal

One year later, Federer had the same situation. After playing the best match he's played in years, in my opinion, Federer, after looking old in the third and fourth sets, was on fire in the fifth. He again had two match points, but this time he was serving. When Federer was at his peak, this was the biggest lock in tennis. What Djokovic did next was what Federer at his prime used to do to people. He broke, held, then broke again, and before you knew it it was all over. I'll curse Federer, because I knew Nadal could beat him. Novak was a different story.

The 2011 US Open Final itself isn't interesting to talk about. Djokovic did what he did the previous five times against Nadal. He just played better than Rafa. It is that simple. What I want to talk about next is the state of Mr. Rafael Nadal. Nadal is now definitely facing the biggest test of his career. This isn't just his version of Nadal-Federer. It's worse. Federer at least beat Nadal every now and then in Federer's prime. Nadal has now lost his last 6. It's worse because Nadal's opponent is not just Novak, it is history as well. Rafa has a shot to be named the best player ever. Novak will never get there, but Rafa can. That's why there's more at stake than just not being #1. Rafa tries harder than any other player ever. No player forces a fourth set in that match. No one. Rafa had to exert an incredible amount of energy to win that third set. Rafa will solve this, because it isn't tactical. It is simple really, he just has to play better.

Rafa won six French Open's playing defense. He won his only US Open playing offense. He served over 130 for really his first time in his life. He became the lefty Federer, just standing in the middle and whipping incredible shots. He was dominant. He just wasn't as good this year. Things can change. Hell, Rafa once won six straight against Nole and that didn't stop Nole from turning the table. He'll have to work harder than ever, but I know he will. I know he can work harder than everyone else. I know he will beat Djokovic at some point. I might be wrong, but nothing lasts forever. Just ask Rafael Nadal, circa September 2010.


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One last thing: I get infuriated by the "Djokovic is to Nadal what Nadal was to Federer." Although it is really one sided over the past year, that is nowhere close to the truth. Yes, the rivalry is really trending towards Novak right now, but if both players retire today, Nadal's the better player, and it isn't really close. Nadal's won a career slam. Nadal's has as many French Open's as Djokovic has Slam Finals. Also, to further the point, Nadal still has the 16-13 edge head to head. Yes, it was 14-4 18 months ago and 16-7 a year ago, but Nadal still has the edge. Nadal still has the edge head to head in slams 5-2. Wins at the end of the career don't mean more than wins in the beginning. If Djokovic never loses to Nadal again, then yes, he is the Nadal to Nadal's Federer, but let's wait and see.


Bonus List: Top Player Season's I've Ever Seen:

1.) Federer 2006 - The year that he was basically untouchable. 92-5. He played 17 tournaments and reached 16 Finals, winning 12 of them. He won the same three majors Novak did, plus making the Final in the 4th - which Nole didn't. That was also the closest he came to beating Nadal in a French Open final until this past one.

2.) Nadal 2010 - The reason I put this higher is because he won a slam on all three surfaces, something done previously by exactly NO ONE. He won a slam without dropping a set, and then won another dropping just one. It was probably the best performance by a player in a year if you just look at the slams, and that gives him the edge in my book over Novak who admittedly did better in non-slam events than Rafa did in 2010.

3.) Novak 2011 - The 64-2 record at this point is scary, but we'll see where he ends up at the end of the season. His year is probably the best year ever when you take away the performance at the slams. I just don't think he's been as dominant in the slams as Federer was in 2006 or Nadal was in 2010.

Yes, Rafa can beat Djokovic. If he plays like he did in the 2010 US Open Final.

Random Other List (just because I'm in a tennis-y mood and I won't write about tennis until at least the 2012 Australian Open) of the Best Matches I've Ever Seen (since 2005).

1.) 2008 Wimbledon Final: Nadal def. Federer 6-4 6-4 6-7 6-7 9-7.

It's still the best I've ever seen. The hitting was incredible, from an epic first point to the incredible tiebreak in the 4th set, to finishing it out in the last vestiges of daylight. Everything was so beautiful about his match. Tennis has never been more artistic.


2.) 2005 Australian Open Semifinal: Safin def. Federer 5-7 6-4 5-7 7-6 9-7

The 2008 Wimbledon Final was more artistic, it was more about shotmaking. This was more about hitting. Federer never seemed more unbeatable than at the start of 2005. We had never really see a man run through the field like Federer in 2004. This was not only a stunning upset, but an exceptional match between Federer and the only man of his generation that had the talent to beat him when Federer played well. Federer lost a match point after Safin hit an incredible lob in the 4th set.


3.) 2009 Australian Open Final: Nadal def. Federer 7-5 3-6 7-6 3-6 6-2

The 5th set was anticlimactic, but for four sets, the tennis rivaled the 2008 Wimbledon Final. Nadal came up with amazing shot after amazing shot, and this after playing a 5 hour semifinal two nights before. Federer too was playing well, killing the forehand. If you have to watch just the highlights of a match, this is probably the best one.


4.) 2009 Australian Open Semifinal: Nadal def. Verdasco 6-7 6-4 7-6 6-7 6-4

It took five hours and fourteen minutes to finish. They played until two in the morning. Both being lefties, the angles hit in the match were ridiculous. It was really tennis being played at a video game level.


5.) 2010 US Open Semifinal: Djokovic def Federer 5-7 6-1 5-7 6-2 7-5

The match that started Nole's run had arguably the most dramatic 5th set ever. The first four weren't that great, but that 5th set made up for everything. Djokovic saving two match points with ballsy hitting. Federer saving break point after break point earlier in the match. This was the match that would create the monster.


Other matches worth Youtubing the highlights of: 2009 US Open Final (del Potro def. Federer), 2010 US Open Final (Nadal def Djokovic), 2009 Wimbledon Final (Federer def. Roddick), 2004 US Open Quarterfinal (Federer def. Agassi).

The Changing of the (Swiss) Guard

There is a man in Switzerland today, a man who is quite upset, quite undone by the events of the last six days. This man has owned the world for seven years now, ever since his birth on a grassy lawn in England, to his coronation six years later, on those same mighty lawns. This man, for seven years now, has been better at his job than nearly everyone else in the world is at theirs, he has been perfect in nearly every way. That man is named Roger Federer, and he is quite upset, because he knows that his time is done. Two years ago, I could have said the same thing, as Federer languished after a 6-1 6-3 6-0 beatdown that he absorbed, but this time seems more definite. Not only did Federer not win the French Open, he was gone three rounds earlier. He was bested by four men, failing to make the semifinals for the first time in 6 years. No, this is final. Federer’s reign, the most bountiful, glorious reign in tennis history, is over. This is the Rafa Dynasty, and get ready, because it will be fun.

Rafael Nadal was not quite upset. In fact, he was sobbing harder than ever before, covering his weeping face in a towel, hiding his own emotions from the public. In tennis, though, the player is never public, and Nadal’s tears were known and understood. His rise to glory had been an odd one. Fifteen months earlier, after finishing off the Holy Trinity of tennis, beating Federer in the French Open Final, Wimbledon Final and Australian Open Final in the span of seven months, he seemed untouchable; however, his knees were conspiring against him, like the senators of Rome against Ceaser. Knee trouble, as well as the divorce of his parents, knocked Nadal off his lofty perch, and allowed Federer to complete the only two things left for him to complete, win the French Open and break Pete Sampras’ all-time Grand Slam record. Done and done. Federer followed this up with winning another Australian Open title, pushing his slam record to 16. Nadal, at that point, dropped to number 5 in the world, and ad sportswriters asking, “Will he ever be the same again?”. No, he’s better.

Rafael Nadal is a different player now. He attacks more, he plays a more complete, offensive game. The old skills like the jack-rabbit quickness, the ridiculous defensive shotmaking and the overpowering will to win are all still there, but they are buoyed by a new sense of self-belief. Rafael Nadal know believes that he can win by simply overpowering his opponent, and quickly massacring them. That is the truly scary part, Nadal is not done getting better. Nadal’s win in the French Open Final against Robin Soderling, the man who took out a weak Nadal last year in the French Open, and also beat Federer in the Quarterfinals five days earlier, was not a vintage Nadal victory, like his 2008 run to the Title that saw him lose just 43 games in seven matches, it was better. Soderling, a man with a newfound self-belief the last two years and the only man to ever know the feeling of beating Rafael Nadal on the clay terrain of the French Open, was powerless. The man who could hit hard enough to beat anyone, including the ‘Greatest of All-Time’ in Federer, could not penetrate Nadal’s mind or body. Soderling could do nothing but idly watch greatness punch and punch until there was nothing left in Soderling. Nadal, like he has done all but one time he has played at the French Open, had won the physical battle and the mental one, but again, he won it differently. Nadal was more offensive, more attacking. He fought Soderling head-on, fighting fire with fire against one of the hardest hitting shotmakers on the ATP Tour, and Nadal won, easily.

Roger Federer is not happy, and mainly because he now sees a different Nadal, one that honestly has no weaknesses, and he seems him hearlthier and better. Of course, this is not news to Federer, who has played Nadal 21 times and lost 14 of them, but what is more troubling was that there are players out there not named Nadal that Federer could lose to, which the opposite is coming true for Rafael. Since his win in the Australian Open, Federer has only made the final in one other tournament, and has lost to the following fringe top-20 players: Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych, Ernests Gulbis and Albert Montanes, as well as Robin Soderling, a guy he held an 11-0 record against. In the meantime, Nadal has lost to no one, becoming the first man ever to sweep the top-4 Clay Court events in one spring. Nadal used to be the guy getting picked off by the lesser. It was Nadal’s fault that Federer couldn’t have beaten Rafa more than he did, because Rafa was the one that was knocked off early, while Federer calmly waited for the dream matchup that never happened. No, instead, it is now Federer that loses before he gets the chance to play Rafa. Since the Aussie Open, Federer has lost every time before Nadal did at every tournament. Even the one time they did play, in Madrid, it was more of the same, as Federer could not make a big point, and he comically swung and whiffed on match point. Federer had his one shot and failed, and in his heart, he knew The French Open would be no different.

Compounding the fact that Nadal crushed the guy that blasted Federer off the court in the quarterfinals (Soderling), is the even more desultory fact that with that win Rafael Nadal stands atop the ATP standings, again as the number one player in the world. Rafael Nadal had that ranking from August 2008 to July 2009, but lost it when his knee problems forced him out of Wimbledon last year. One year later, Nadal is healthy and changed his game to take pressure off the knees, and Federer may never see number 1 again. The hauntingly amazing fact is that Federer was just one week away from tying Pete Sampras’ record for 286 weeks at No. 1, but may never get that 286^th week at this point. It is a Nadal world, and Roger and the rest are living in it.

Roger Federer is never a man to admit defeat. He’s a man that always feel that it is his ability that will carry him through, and that is partly why this is such a troubling time for him. Federer, like many great champions, is very, very stubborn. His beautiful game carried him to 16 grand slam titles, but no longer can. However, he is slow to change, slow to accept the fact that his game currently is just not good enough anymore. He used to believe that when he played Rafa, he was simply better than him, that on talent alone, he could beat him. In many ways, he still does believe that. He has rarely tried to change gameplans, change styles against Nadal. The man has once made Federer cry in defeat at the 2009 Australian Open Final, and also embarrassed Federer giving Roger the worst loss at a Grand Slam the No. 1 player has ever taken, with his 6-1 6-3 6-0 win in the 2008 Final, but through it all Federer truly believes that he is the more talented player. That is why this is a dark day for the maestro in Switzerland, because he is not.

Roger Federer, in all likelihood, will end up with more grand slams than Rafael Nadal. Sure, Nadal, who just turned 24 last week, is already two ahead of Federer’s pace (Federer had 5 slams when he turned 24 in August, 2005), but Federer from ages 24-26 was unlike anything seen in tennis. However, Rafa will always be the man who not only conquered the Fed-eration, but also was the man who completely toyed with Federer at times. Everything Federer did to other players (make them look foolish, pass them on the run with ease, tense them up so they play tentatively), Nadal did to Federer. Even though 12 of their 21 meeting have come on clay (Nadal is 10-2 in those), the other 9 non-clay meetings has Federer barely edging out Rafa 5-4. Also, Nadal has beaten Federer in a Grand Slam Final on clay, grass and hardcourt, while Federer’s only returned the favor on grass. Federer might be the greatest tennis player of the Open-era, but he had one rival who owned him, consistently, because when those two played, Rafa was the better player. This is the first time that Nadal has won a Grand Slam without Federer being an opponent, which is a more harrowing fact. Federer’s won 14 slams without playing Rafa in them. Federer has been able to extend his dominance to everyone, and up until now, Rafael Nadal couldn’t say the same, but now, after crushing the man that handily beat Federer, he can say that, he can make a claim that even with Federer gone, he’s still the best, Rafa Nadal could see his stock soar, and the slams pile up, and that, above anything, is why Federer is crying at home is Basel.