Tier I - The "Start Hoping Arch is the Guy" Uno
16.) Carolina Panthers (0-1 = 10-26)
That was a disturbing Bryce Young performance, looking every bit the lost QB he was at the beginning of last year, and nothing like the brief flash of competence he showed in the second half of the season. The defense was also bad, adn the roster as a whole is still not good, but any hope of this iteration of the team working is Bryce taking a step, and more importantly retaining that step, and this first game was a real challenge.
Tier II - The "New" Trio
15.) New York Giants (0-1 = 6-21)
14.) New Orleans Saints (0-1 = 13-20)
13.) New England Patriots (0-1 = 13-20)
Yeah, it's kitschy to put these three together, but I do think they all had pretty awful showings - even if the Saints and Patriots lost by just a TD. For the Saints, they weren't really in that game. Anyway, this is a throwaway season for them - or at least as close to one as you can have in the NFL. The defense did play reasonably well and can keep them in games. The Patriots were a real disapppointment - I mean, I didn't believe in the weird Wild Card hype surrounding this team, but if you want Drake Maye taking a step, you can't have him struggling and seeming lost at times against the Raiders defense. He looked way too scattershot still despite getting better protection than he's been used to. For the Giants, I just don't understand why they aren't going with Jaxson Dart today. Like, what is there to gain by playing Russell Wilson at this point? They aren't wild card fodder with Wilson, may as well at least give your fans something to cheer about after a decade of irrelevance. The risk I see is they start pissing off Nabers even, as seems to be happening.
Tier III - The "I may be somehow overrating them" Uno
12.) Miami Dolphins (0-1 = 8-33)
The Dolphins can go one of two ways - they can either continue this downturn and be in a position where they'll be firing McDaniel in a month, or I guess they could also be the team that plays way worse in Week 1 than at any other point. I don't think they're secretly a 10-win team, but why I hold a bit of hope for the latter of the two outcomes is even last year which was a wasted season, with Tua they were generally decent. I just can't believe they would fall apart at this level in one offseason. Yes, I get the vibes are bad, but can it really be this bad?
Tier IV - The "Some Signs of Life....." Duo
11.) Tennessee Titans (0-1 = 12-20)
10.) Cleveland Browns (0-1 = 16-17)
10.) Cleveland Browns (0-1 = 16-17)
Neither of these teams project to be good, but both arguably played better than their supposedly good opponent. That shoudl mean something, yes? Now, Cam Ward needs his receivers to actually catch a ball, and it would be good if their ballyhooed OL-focused coaching staff can actually coach up a decent OL. Similarly for the Browns, I don't know how long they'll keep trotting out the 40-year old in Flacco (who did look decent, admittedly). But for both, their defenses showed up, and again both easily could have won. I woudl think they would be fairly fluke winners in that scenario, but both made it seem like they can keep games competitive this season. But seriously guys, for the love of good pleas block for Cam.
Tier V - The "Cautious Optimism" Trio
9.) Seattle Seahawks (0-1 = 13-17)
8.) New York Jets (0-1 = 32-34)
7.) Chicago Bears (0-1 = 24-27)
7.) Chicago Bears (0-1 = 24-27)
All three of these teams could've easily won. All three had leads in the 4th quarters of their respective games. All three lost, but there are some bright spots. The Seahawks defense continued to look good and has some further upside in now year 2 of Mike McDonald's scheme (it was similarly in Year 2 with Baltimore they took off). The Jets offense looked solid and more than that sustainable with Justin Fields and more importantly an OL that played way more cohesively against a good (in theory) defensive opponent. Despite missing Vera-Tucker, the Jets OL was able to really give both Hall and Fields time and space. For the Bears, Caleb's inaccuracy is still a major problem, but Johnson had him playing more composed. I have to admit, I thought about shifting the Bears down, but I still believe in a lot of what I saw from that team, specifically the defense.
Tier VI - The "Just a bump in the road" Trio
6.) Atlanta Falcons (0-1 = 20-23)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (0-1 = 20-24)
4.) Houston Texans (0-1 = 9-14)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (0-1 = 20-24)
4.) Houston Texans (0-1 = 9-14)
All three of these teams still to me have playoff aspirations and showed why. Penix looked good - he looked like a QB who will take a whole lot of risks, but I liked how that offense looked. Yes, they lost, but I have high hopes for Tampa, so this wasn't a terrible loss to me. The Cowboys looked good in a sense. I don't think CeeDee will drop three passes a game. The OL looked good. The defense looked OK given the loss of Micah Parsons. They looked like a team that could threaten for the NFC East if they didn't trade their All Pro pass rusher the week before the season started. For the Texans, it's weird because their biggest issue in that game was their biggest issue last season and coming into this one: their inability to block. But let's not forget the Rams are one of the better pass rushes. Stroud, despite the pressure and sacks, did look more calm, and threw some amazing passes. The defense also played well. I think that was a weirdly well played game by both teams, especially for a 14-9 final.
Tier VII - The "Lick Those Wounds Off" Trio
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (0-1 = 21-27)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (0-1 = 40-41)
Ever year there's a few teams that are preseason Super Bowl contenders that lose in Week 1. Some fall flat on their face, like Detroit did. Some lose just normally, like the Chiefs did. Few lose in the heart-breaking way the Ravens did - except for the Ravens which do this three times a year. I think all three are still good. For the Lions, hidden in that game was that tehy still moved the ball but had some bad red zone luck - and turnover luck (the two called back INTs). The defenses lack of pass rush was concerning, but that whole game may just be a case of losing to a good opponent playing an A game. The Chiefs injuries are concerning, as was their lack of pass rush, but I think they're due a bit of leeway before we go too far in teh other direction. For the Ravens, what can you say. I probably should have them in their own tier. Other than the continued questions it raises about their propensity to blow big leads, losing by one point on the road against maybe the best team in the league is about the most excusable loss you can have.
Ranking the 1-0 Teams
Tier I - The "Let's be real, beating who you beat counts as half a win" Trio
16.) Las Vegas Raiders (1-0 = 20-13)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0 = 26-10)
14.) Denver Broncos (1-0 = 20-12)
14.) Denver Broncos (1-0 = 20-12)
It always happens every year, two teams play in Week 1 where neither is all that good, and the winner gets to bask in that 1-0 record, but how much does it really matter. The Raiders offense looked good, but I can't really take anything about that defense seriously yet. The Jags beat a fairly lifeless Panthers team, and still showed some issues like a truly awful pick by Lawrence. The Broncos defense was basically as good as advertised, but Bo Nix played like the scattershot rookie he was for the first half of last season. None of these three performances was great. But hey, a win is a win. Also as an aside, it is pretty strange how few upsets we had yesterday. Generally the teams people thought would win did win.
Tier II - The "Fun AFC North Escapes" Duo
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-0 = 17-16)
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0 = 34-32)
I don't know how good either of these two are. I'm probably underrating Cincinnati because they just seem incapable of playing well in the first couple weeks of a season. On the plus side at least they won this game, but the offense looked just as impotent as it does every Week 1-3. I don't know how this can never change. The defense also looked bad when it wasn't getting interceptions off of drops by their opponent. For the Steelers, yes, seeing Rodgers have 4 TDs with no picks was fun, but he still took a lot of sacks, couldn't really move, and the defense looked quite porous. I don't think they're long for being >.500 if they need to score 34 every week, even for one week it all looked good.
Tier III - The "Is this the start of something?" Duo
11.) Arizona Cardinals (1-0 = 20-13)
10.) Indianapolis Colts (1-0 = 33-8)
For teh Cardinals and Colts, wins over beatable teams need to be routine. Those two were - specifically the Colts absolutely embarrassing the Dolphins. For both, the real test will be how sustainable this is. How sustainable is that Kyler offense down to down - is Marvin Harrison really going to take a step up? For the Colts, will Lou Anarumo's creativity with that group work as well against opponents who have an offense that is at all cohesive. Can Daniel Jones continue this level given this is the best OL he's played behind. Both teams were near .500 last year where some of these things either went wrong or stayed stagnant, so the upward mobility if they are truly fixed problems is absolutely there.
Tier IV - The "Second Tier NFC Teams" Trio
9.) Minnesota Vikings (1-0 = 27-24)
8.) Los Angeles Rams (1-0 = 14-9)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0 = 23-20)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0 = 23-20)
The Rams and Bucs have made the playoffs each of the last two years. The Vikings made it last year and two of the last three under KOC. But none of them have made it past the divisional round. They've not been serious NFC contenders, but maybe that changes. None of teh three were perfect, but all had tough opponents and did the things they do well well, for instance the Rams DL was great, and despite all the back concerns, Stafford threw a bunch of seeds against what could end up being a top flight defense in the Texans. For the Buccaneers, Baker was good, the rookie WR was great, the defense was good in spurts - this is a top heavy team, but the top played well. For the Vikings, McCarthy was rough in that first half, but the second that 2:00 drill (or really 1:00 drill) happened at the end of the first half through to the end, when he was finally unleashed a bit, you saw what made him an intriguing prospect. Granted, the pick-6 showed where there will definitely be growing pains.
Tier V - The "This Can't Be Happening Again" Uno
6.) San Francisco 49ers (1-0 = 17-13)
Kittle is now out for 3-5 weeks. Purdy may be out for a game (which seems like it came out of nowhere). The 49ers seem again just cursed with injuries. At some point maybe you start looking at the personnel or the training staff or all of it. It can't just be bad luck. but right now it is. McCaffrey at least stayed healthy, and the young defenders all came to play. If they can survive until Kittle gets back, along with Aiyuk, they could be like the 2021 49ers who rallied late in the season to make the playoffs and run.
Tier VI - The "Upwardly Mobile" Trio
5.) Washington Commanders (1-0 = 21-6)
4.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-0 = 27-21)
4.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-0 = 27-21)
3.) Green Bay Packers (1-0 = 27-13)
All three of these teams made the playoffs last year. All three want to take that next step, and through one week we're in a good spot. The Commanders may have beaten a pumpkin, but they thoroughly dominated the Giants and showed some good improvement from their DL, with teh Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw duo being dominant. The Packers and Chargers had key division wins against the resident division bully. Both were home games so in the grand scheme maybe it doesn't matter, but the Chargers new pass-heavy offense, and the Packers dominance on defense were welcome presences that could easily just be season long trends.
Tier VII - The "Cream of the Crop" Duo
2.) Buffalo Bills (1-0 = 41-40)
1.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0 = 24-20)
There was a general consensus Big-4 coming into teh season of the Eagles, and the three AFC giants (Bills, Chiefs, Ravens). Well, two of those teams lost, and these two won. Maybe neither won too convincingly, but the Bills ability to stay in that game, and the offenses maturity from guys liek Coleman (a huge development) and Kincaid was a welcome sign. The defense has some challenges but it also may be the Ravens are just an awful matchup for a team that hates playing base. For the Eagles, the Champs are #1 until they lose, but more than that they sleepwalked with a "C" performance to a win against a divisional rival. The most concerning part was the lack of pass rush, but a lot of that could be the weird Carter ejection. Let's see a full force Eagles defense first before we worry.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) New England Patriots (0-1) @ Miami Dolphins (0-1) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Carolina Panthers (0-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-0) (4:05 - CBS)
14.) New York Giants (0-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ New Orleans Saints (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Seattle Seahawks (0-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Los Angeles Rams (1-0) @ Tennessee Titans (0-1) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Atlanta Falcons (0-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-0) (SNF - NBC)
9.) Buffalo Bills (1-0) @ New York Jets (0-1) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Buffalo Bills (1-0) @ New York Jets (0-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-1) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ Houston Texans (0-1) (MNF - ESPN)
6.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-0) (4:05 - CBS)
4.) Chicago Bears (0-1) @ Detroit Lions (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ Houston Texans (0-1) (MNF - ESPN)
6.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-0) (4:05 - CBS)
4.) Chicago Bears (0-1) @ Detroit Lions (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) (MNF - ESPN)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Washington Commanders (1-0) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0) (TNF - Prime)
