This one seems pretty clear. Rashee Rice should be back after 5-6 games. Xavier Worthy should be better in year 2. The line seems more settled than in the last couple years. Mahomes is still the best QB in teh NFL. I can absolutely see him having a masterful season. The Chiefs need him to, as on paper their schedule is way harder this year than last. That said, I do think this is also the year their AFC Title Game streak ends, as their defense has a bit too many holes, and more to the point, at some year this has to end, no? Mahomes is the best QB since the Manning/Brady/Rodgers contingent that won 12 MVPs between them (5/3/4 for that trio). They won a grand total of zero Super Bowls in theri respective MVP seasons.
2.) The 49ers are resurrected and win the NFC West
I'll admit, this was a more out there take before the Rams started slow-rolling a recurrence of Matt Staffords back injury and what-not, but I still think this is worth commentating on. The 49ers were the big disappointment of last year. Yes, a host of injuries did them in, but they weren't doing all that well before teh injuries. Many have compared this to the 2020 49ers season, where after a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs they went 6-10, adn the year after were right back in the NFC Championship Game. This team is different, but I think the season, at least in the regular season, goes about the same. Purdy is a very good QB. I think McCaffrey will be healthier. Yes, the losses on defense are troubling, but I like Robert Saleh as a DC coaching up some youngsters. And finally, I think some are overrating the rest of the division. I do see a 11-6 or 12-5 season on the way.
3.) The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league
Yes, this is a bit enabled by my hatred of Tom Brady - the most ballyhooed very minority owner ever. By most reports, he owns like 5% of the team, adn someone we're suppsoed to believe this win-above-all-costs-including-my-family asshole is going to magically make one of the worst franchises successful? Also, unless Pete Carroll has decided to change the way he calls defense, I can see that side of the ball struggling. The OL is tough, and Geno can still throw some picks. Couple that with a very tough division and schedule I can see a trainwreck type season in store.
4.) The Cowboys finish higher than the Commanders
The Commanders were not 12-5 good last year. Granted, they were like 10-7 good. I'm in no way saying they were a bad team. But they had everything go right, including a hail mary win and a few other ridiculous wins too. I don't see them falling much below where they were last year, but they don't have to do so for a Cowboys team that ideally will have a healthy Dak Prescott to pass them. I believe in Dak and the core of the Cowboys. I think the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer was uninspired, but much like the Mike McCarthy one that came before it, uninspired is usually still decent for a year or two. The Cowboys have a lot of challenges in more of a 3-4 year window, but for the next year or two this team is still top heavy enough to be good.
5.) The Cardinals finish higher than the Rams
Again, with Matt Stafford now sleeping in hyperbaric chambers or what-not, this doesn't seem too hot. For the second straight year, I'm going to put some weird stock in the Cardinals, on Jonathan Gannon finding some diamonds in teh rough of that defense, and Kyler doing better in year two in that offense, and more than that, Marvin Harrison doing better in year 2. No WR as reputed as him coming into teh NFL has not turned into a great WR in quite a while. He was definitely a disappointment in Year 1, but I'm willing to chalk that up to randomness and say the true ability is still there.
6.) Caleb Williams has a better season than Bo Nix
Caleb Williams had a rough rookie year. That much is obvious. His OL was rough, but he had weapons. There was no real cohesion to that offense. Ben Johnson should help fix that. Bo Nix has good weapons, and a good OL and a good playcaller in Sean Payton. Not much has changed on the Nix side of things, but I think the combination of Ben Johnson, and having another year in the NFL, will calm things down for Caleb. I do think Ben Johnson can reign in that "extend every play too much" trait that Williams has had dating abck to USC. There's a reason he was seen as a generational prospect, and Nix an overdraft at #10. Yeah, maybe the football world was wrong on both accounts, but I just don't see that as likely.
7.) The Bucs just remain Really Good
The Bucs quietly had a great season last year by underlying numbers. They lsot early in the playoffs, which was disappointing, but decided to run it all back. Yeah, there is a risk in running it back with what is a generally aging team, and there's a further risk in trusting the Mayfield-led offense that will be on its third offensive coordinator in as many seasons. Of course, maybe the two OCs only looked so good because of the composite parts the Bucs have. I love Mayfield in that offense. I like the prospect of the run game and still like the strength of that defense. The Buccaneers to me are still clearly the best team in that division, unless Penix has a huge rise in year 2. I don't see that happening, and more than anything against a weak schedule, see the Bucs challenging for the #2 seed.
8.) The Packers finish 3rd or 4th
Yeah, this might be my hottest take. Everyone loves the NFC North - and with good reason. Three 11+ win teams last year, two of them winning 14+. The last place team with the generational QB and hot coach. Many are predicting one of the two 14+ wins team to tumble - either the Lions from continued talent and OC/DC drain, or the Vikings turning to a rookie in replacing Darnold. Maybe one of those things happen, but I doubt both do, and that combined with my Bears love see me thinking the Packers being the most disappointing team of the season. Lost in that campaign last year was that many units took a step back. Jordan Love is not all taht young, and I'm not sure Matt Lafleur can coach the bad stuff out of him. The lack of a true #1 option is still there. The defense is good not great. I see way too many people talking them up as one of the best rosters in the NFL, and while there are no obvious huge weaknesses, I also see no world-beating units either.
9.) Two AFC South teams make the playoffs
People mock the AFC South, and for good reason. What with the constant Saturday 4:30pm Texans Invitational last year (and in 2023, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011 before that...), and the general ineptness of those franchises over the past decade. The AFC South hasn't sent two teams to the playoffs since 2020 (Titans and Colts). I think that ends this year, and honestly I can see any two of the Texans, Jaguars and Colts making it. There is talent on these rosters. The Texans should be close to a lock to at least make the playoffs. If one of Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson gets some consistency, their teams are good enough to make the playoffs as well (Lawrence is better than Richardson even at this stage, a lot better actually... but the Colts roster outside of QB is better than the Jags). Call it a weird hunch, or a sign I don't buy people's love of teams like the Patriots, but I think the South gets two wild cards. Wouldn't be shocked if both are gone by Divisional Weekend, though.
10.) The Bills or Ravens make history with their Coach / QB combo
No Coach/QB combination that won a Super Bowl together took more than 5 years to get it done. Many won in Year 5, from Flacco and Harbaugh, to Manning and Dungy, or Year 4, from Brees and Payton to Hurts and Sirriani. Go further back and time and tiem again it is the same. That would seem to bode poorly for the Bills and Ravens, who are now in Year 8 of their respective Coach/QB combinations. In fact, no Coach/QB combination that ever even made the Super Bowl took that long to get to their first. But all those types of streaks are meant to be broken. Maybe it is my long time hope that every all-time great / HOF type player gets a ring - or in this case at least gets the chance to get a ring. If you had to put a gun to my head out of the two, I would take Buffalo, but in reality I just want one of the two to get it done.
