Tier I - The "Bo Nix Maybe...." Duo
31.) Carolina Panthers = 3-8 (207-256)
I'll give the Panthers defense credit - they didn't sell the farm in a tanking job, and the defense has remained really strong. Of course, the offense is aimless garbage, but maybe that is exactly the recipe the Panther should want. There's a huge morass of temas at three losses, so the Panthers need these type of performances to both (1) show it makes sense to not trade all the good young defenders and (2) still end up with a top pick. As for the Texans - well, this is what we all thought they were going to be. The Mills experience has to be on its last legs, at least in the sense of anyone thinking he could be the long term answer.
Tier II - The "Signs of Life" Duo
30.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 3-7 (170-244)
29.) Chicago Bears = 3-8 (241-274)
The Steelers offense for the first time in a while looked quite good - especially the connection with Pickett to Pickens - at least until the WR went out. It seems already quite clear that Kenny Pickett's ceiling is more or less where people thought it would be (not high), but they kept it moving. The defense even with TJ Watt back is just not talented enough right now to avoid them ending up with a high draft pick. For the Bears, they've perfected now the great formula of Justin Fields having a good game, showing more signs of promise, with their offense scoring 20+ points, and the Bears losing. That dominant on all sides of the ball win over the Patriots wasn't a mirage - but I don't know if Bears fans are unhappy they see some brilliance from Fields in another loss.
Tier III - The "Sad, Aimless, Wandering the Desert" Quinto
28.) Cleveland Browns = 3-7 (240-269)
27.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-7 (225-242)
26.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-7 (168-227)
25.) Denver Broncos = 3-7 (147-171)
24.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-7 (240-296)
24.) Arizona Cardinals = 4-7 (240-296)
What a mess. The Browns at least have the specter of He Who Shall Not Be Named coming back in a couiple weeks, but are probably out of any reasonable playoff race at this point. That defense has just cratered this season. The Raiders got a nice win but are too far gone and there's already rumblings about Carr's long term status as starter, which given how things went with McNasty the first go around is generally the first sign of an impending meltdown. The Rams are quietly putting up one of the worst Super Bowl defenses ever. The last sub-.500 defending champ was the 2002 Buccaneers, who at least were much better than their 7-9 record. This team is just not good. For the Broncos, its amazing how much they're wasting a great defense. Finally with Arizona, the only reason they are on the top of this grouping is that I have a little benefit of doubt with Kyler not playing and Nuke looking pretty great since coming back.
Tier IV - The "2% less Sad, Aimless, etc." Trio
23.) Indianapolis Colts = 4-6-1 (173-220)
22.) New Orleans Saints = 4-7 (249-267)
21.) Green Bay Packers = 4-7 (202-243)
I actually think we have decent stratification between "good" and "bad" by now, but its teams like these three that make people say that the quality in the league is super low. The Colts have a good defense, but their offense is just so broken, starting with the black hole that has been the LT position. They are not able to get any consistency on offense. For the Saints, they should be better but sticking with Dalton, while it paid off yesterday, to me is the wrong move by this point. The division isn't totally gone, but basically comes down to a MNF game in a couple weeks where they go to Tampa. For the Packers, it's over - the Wild Card race has left them by now. And I think a lot of the league, especially NFC opponents, are going to have fun taking swings at a pitiful, old, bully.
Tier V - The "Maybe something's building??" Duo
20.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 3-7 (216-205)
19.) Detroit Lions = 4-6 (250-282)
Ever since their back to back wins of 24-0 and 38-10, I was amused by how long those two wins could basically keep them with a positive point differential. The similarities to Pederson's 2016 Eagles are screaming at this point: a lot of close losses, a couple big wins, an overall point differential way better than their record. Do the Jags have the makings of a 14-3 team in 2023? Probably not, but already they're my 2023 AFC South pick. For the Lions, the offense is back! At this point, I don't know what they're three-year plan would be centering on Goff, but it will be interesting to see how they navigate it. Hutchinson is every bit the monster people thought he was when the Lions got him at #2 overall.
Tier VI - The "Soft Underbelly of the League" Quadro
18.) Atlanta Falcons = 5-6 (259-274)
17.) Los Angeles Chargers = 5-5 (227-258)
16.) Washington Commanders = 6-5 (214-223)
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 5-5 (183-180)
The four teams at or closest to .500 are also the four teams that I would think are the most "average" in the NFL right now. The Falcons are the most "fun" to watch just because their offense has a certain way of playing that generally works. Patterson back is a real add to their dynamism. For the Chargers, getting Allen and Williams back is huge, but their defense just doesn't have enough right now beyond Mack adn Derwin. The Commanders and Buccaneers are similar teams to me - teams that were bad at the start of the season that are currently in moderate hot streaks mostly due to players that were already there just starting to play better. If that continues, they can go on runs. If not, this may be just the vagaries of the season - with couple game winning streaks paired with couple game losing streaks - as what happens.
Tier VII - The "Tenuous Hold on New York" Duo
14.) New York Jets = 6-4 (199-186)
13.) New York Giants = 7-3 (205-204)
13.) New York Giants = 7-3 (205-204)
You may look at this past weekend as the week where both New York teams got exposed. Both teams remain (1) well coached and (2) good defensively, to not die so fast to escape the playoff race for a bit, but both these games were depressing. For the Jets, its mostly down to Zach Wilson being pretty close to a full bust at this point. The accuracy is just too much to get around. For the Giants, part of the issue is for sure Daniel Jones, who is teetering on the edge of getting an extension - but more than him its the injuries to skill players finally catching up to them. There is just not enough to consistently move the ball. Both may have banked enough wins to sneak into the playoffs, but it will be #7 seed (#6 seed at best) instead of something more threatening.
Tier VIII - The "Better or Worse than you Think" Trio
12.) New England Patriots = 6-4 (213-169)
11.) Seattle Seahawks = 6-4 (257-241)
10.) Tennessee Titans = 7-3 (193-185)
11.) Seattle Seahawks = 6-4 (257-241)
10.) Tennessee Titans = 7-3 (193-185)
The Patriots defense is incredible at one particular thing: dominating anything less than good offenses. Against good offenses, including Fields/Bears 2.0, they've struggled, especially at the LB level, but anything less and they're dominant. That's good, because hte offense is not good. The injuries on the OL haven't helped, but Jones is also playing way too risk free for this to work longer term. For the Seahawks, let's see if their rough game against the Bucs was a 1-week Germany mirage, or a start of a way of teams attacking them - namely pounding them on the ground. The offense has enough track record at this point to be trusted. For the Titans, they are what they are - a team that knows exactly what it is and is extremely well coached for game situations and defensively in general. Tannehill back should help, as the rookie Wills offense had clear limitations. The division is theirs, but a tough non-division back half of hte schedule could push them down in terms of seeding.
Tier IX - The "Good, not Great" Duo
9.) Cincinnati Bengals = 6-4 (265-215)
8.) Minnesota Vikings = 8-2 (229-231)
The only reason I have the Vikings ahead of hte Bengals is some lingering benefit after their win in Buffalo, but I guess I should remember that the Vikings were one inhuman catch from Justin Jefferson - or the first Josh Allen red zone INT - away from losing pretty meekly in Buffalo. Anyway, less said about the Vikings right now the better. For the Bengals, they're a professional outfit who for whatever reason cannot beat the Browns. The over-reliance on Higgins right now isn't great, but should improve with Chase back either this week or hte next. I may have slight concern on the defense, but they have to hope that performance was the outlier, and they revert to their steady "allow 17-24 points every game" level.
Tier X - The "Social Climbers" Duo
7.) Miami Dolphins = 7-3 (252-241)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 6-4 (236-173)
For the Dolphins, people will shout to the moons that they're 7-0 in games that Tua finishes, and you know what: given by most metrics he's having an all-time great efficiency season, I buy it. I don't buy that defense, but Mike McDaniels' scheme, and those weapons, it may not matter. The 49ers are a great team with some hidden pitfalls that could sink them in any given week. To me they are weirdly the highest variance team in the NFL, because so often they can look like they did last night and just crush teams. The defense is healthy again and Shanahan is having a ball integrating all of Aiyuk, Deebo, CMC and Kittle. If that foursome can stay healthy, they can make a big run down the stretch.
Tier XI - The "Yes, there are Great Teams, Pt. 1" Trio
5.) Baltimore Ravens = 7-3 (248-199)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 7-3 (251-167)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 7-3 (251-167)
3.) Buffalo Bills = 7-3 (281-174)
Week to week, any team can look not great, but when I look at this season - while maybe we would want more 1-loss or 2-loss teams, I do think there are 5 great teams, five teams that were they tomorrow to play any of the other 27, would be favored and I would feel pretty good about it. Including in this the Ravens that won 13-3 yesterday against my 2nd worst team in the league. Yes that was ugly, but hidden in that was another great defensive performance, with reinforcements on offense on the way back. That game was really never in doubt. For hte Cowboys, that performance puts the league on notice. Dak back and healthy with a great defense is incredible. For the Bills, they really should be 8-2, losing two games that they were 1-play away from winning numerous times. They have no real margin for error given the division, but leaning on the run was a good sign that they may realize they don't need Allen to throw 4-TDs a game and force throws.
Tier XII - The "Yes, There are Great Teams, Pt. 2" Duo
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 9-1 (263-183)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 8-2 (300-233)
And then there's these two - tops in each league by record, and while the Cowboys and Bills technically have higher point differentials, I think these two have been quite impresive. Every 13-3 or 14-2 type team generally has a few squeaky wins like hte Eagles just had against the Colts, but they won a game that many teams lose - the sleepy road game in the middle of the season. For the Chiefs, down two receivers (who should come back) and they just pivot to 3TE looks and beat an AFC contender, with the defense looking a bit better each week. A prospect of a potential Andy Reid Bowl for the Super Bowl is quite enticing right now.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 14-3
2.) Buffalo Bills = 13-4
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 13-4
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 13-4
4.) Tennessee Titans = 11-6
5.) Miami Dolphins = 11-6
5.) Miami Dolphins = 11-6
6.) Cincinnati Bengals = 10-7
7.) New England Patriots = 10-7
NFC
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 14-3
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-4
3.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-6
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-8
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-8
5.) Dallas Cowboys = 13-4
6.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-7
7.) New York Giants = 10-7
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Schedule:
16.) Denver Broncos (3-7) @ Carolina Panthers (3-8) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday and Monday, as we're at the point in teh season I kind of start these rankings with this approach. These are the only two games with two sub-.500 teams, all of which have no real playoff prospects. There are little things to keep watching, be it the continuing frustration of the Russell Wilson era, or the Colts seeing if they can finally beat Pittsburgh in the post-Manning era - yup, it's been since 2008 since the Colts have beaten Pittsburgh.
14.) Chicago Bears (3-8) @ New York Jets (6-4) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4) (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Houston Texans (1-8-1) @ Miami Dolphins (7-3) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Baltimore Ravens (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Baltimore Ravens (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Good" Sunday, as we get four games with bad teams playing ones that are either squarely contenders, or in the case of the Jets, hanging on to their playoff bonafides. Chances are at least one of the "bad" teams in this set wins outright, and 1-2 more keep it manageable. Oddly if anything I ranked them in opposite order of how likely it is for the lesser team to win, but I can't go back and change the ranking (I mean I could, but I don't want to).
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) @ Cleveland Browns (3-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Can we call it a Comeback?" Sunday, as the Bucs, off of their bye, try to keep up their winning ways. Of course, I could care less about Tom Brady lucking into the worst division in the NFL, but whatever. The more interesting comeback is the one that is happening after this game. This is the last game the Browns will play before a certain pervert QB comes back. For once, I might be rooting for Brady's team just to put any playoff hopes fully out of reach of Watson as he returns.
9.) Los Angeles Rams (3-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "54-51 this ain't" Sunday, as the Rams and Chiefs play for the first time since their epic 54-51 MNF game in 2018. It's been an eventful four years since, with both playing in two Super Bowls, and winning one. Unsurprisingly, the Rams have changed up nearly all their roster aside from Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp since that game. More surprsingly, they're so far off the pace of what the Chiefs are at this point. Nostalgia alone had this be ahead of the "bad vs. good" list.
8.) Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-7) (4:05 - CBS)
7.) New Orleans Saints (4-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Not sure why I kind of like it" Sunday, as we get two 4-7 teams trying to hang on, with neither looking all that likely to do anything of the sort. I hope Kyler plays bcause at least he puts some interest with Arizona. For the 49ers and Saints, they've played some classics in past, but those were the Drew Brees days.
6.) Atlanta Falcons (5-6) @ Washington Commanders (6-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "When Two Averages Enter...." Sunday, as we get a what is to me fascinating game between two "around .500" teams - the soft underbelly of the NFL can be fun especially when they play each other. The Falcons are on the periphery of the NFC South race, but for the Commanders - they quickly find themsevles as the erstwhile #7 seed. Both are somehow fun teams, with wildly different styles. Should be interesting.
5.) Green Bay Packers (4-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Beat up on Rodgers Revenge Tour" Sunday, as we get another team with their shot to humiliate Aaron Rodgers even more than he's trying to humiliate himself with his passive-agressive performance art this year. For the Eagles, their chance to "get right" against a defense that has generally been very susceptible to the run. The Packers have to sit and take these types of gmaes this year, and there is a certain fun in watching that.
4.) Buffalo Bills (7-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) (Thanks. - CBS)
3.) New York Giants (7-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3) (Thanks. - FOX)
I call it "Aren't We Thankful" Thursday, as we get two good games in our traditional Thanksgiving slate. Yes, there is a chance the Bills dominate the Lions, but generally the Lions are an interesting team and Bills blowouts are more fun than most teams's blowouts. For the Giants and Cowboys, again there is a chance the Cowboys continue their dominant ways, but the Giants are a team that is better than they showed last week and played the Cowboys tough the first time around (granted, in the Cooper Rush days). At the end of the day, its Thanksgiving, so let's have some fun.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) @ Tennessee Titans (7-3) (1:00 - CBS)
1.) New England Patriots (6-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-2) (TNF - NBC)
I call it "Competency & Intrigue" Sunday and Thursday, as I might be a broken record in saying that yes there is a chance the Patriots blowout the Vikings, but the Vikings general level of offensive competence (last week obviously excluded) is high enough to trouble the Patriots, and you have to think the Vikings will come out better at home after that performance. For the Bengals nad Titans, a nice AFC Divisional Round rematch, with the prospect of Jamar Chase back. And honestly both teams are to of the Top-10 most entertaining teams to watch.
