(A2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) vs (N1) San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Sun, 6:30 - FOX | Chiefs -1.5
State of the Teams: The only real injury of note to watch out for is Chris Jones, but it is a hugely important one. The largest edge in this game is the 49ers run game against the Chiefs porous rush defense. Now, as we saw in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs rush defesne can play well, or their offense can make the lack of rush defense a moot point, but Chris Jones was not healthy in that game. He should be somewhat closer to 100%, but it seems he just won't be 100%. On the 49ers side, Tevin Coleman is somehow going to be available himself, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a larger role on Sunday as he's more of a weapon in the passing game than Mostert.
It's great to have both teams fully healthy (or as close as could reasonably be expected) in what should be a great game. Both teams also come in having played truly well in the playoffs. This is the first time since 2016 where both Super Bowl participants won all their playoff games by 10+ points. The Chiefs faced tougher situations falling behind by 10+ in each game, but by halftime they had leads they would expand on. The 49ers haven't trailed for a second. It will be interesting to see how the 49ers play early on with a bit more impetus to get up early. Do they push Garoppolo more than he has been the last two games.
For the Chiefs, you imagine there's a good chnce they fall behind again early, but this is a worse team to do that against. The 49ers have been incredible front-runners all season long. The largest deficit they faced all season was being down 13 a couple times againts the Saints. Then again, that was the only time they faced an offense this dynamic (maybe Baltimore) and the Saints dropped 46 on them. Of course, back then the 49ers were missing half their secondary and a few key rushers. Their defense is full, healthy, and back to their dominant ways.
The Matchup: The more marquee matchup is the Chiefs offense against the 49ers defense. There's been so much talk about historical precedents of great offenses and great defenses playing, and the defenses normally winning. I have to say in those past examples, either one or both of the units were more 'great' than these two. The Chiefs were the 2nd best offense in teh NFL this season. The 49ers the second best defense. They match up well too. The 49ers are great at stopping TEs, and great on 3rd down - league's best 3rd down hurry and sack rate. The Chiefs are the best 3rd down offense. Neither team is all that good in the red zone in this matchup, the Chiefs ranking 20th on offense adn the 49ers 22nd on defense. The 49ers main goal was not letting teams get into the red zone period. To me, this matchup comes down to whether the 49ers pass rush can keep up. They'll win early, and have a great rotation, but can they keep it up. Also, which receiver gets sacrificed to Richard Sherman, and if it is Tyreek Hill, can they get shot-plays against the slower Sherman.
The other matchup ironically may well decide the game. The 49ers offense was a solid unit, ranking #7 in DVOA, #5 on 3rd down, and top-5 in most conventional metrics. Even against a still middling Kansas City rush defense, you won't expect them to have the same level of success on teh ground as they did against Green Bay. The 49ers OL should be able to win its matchup against the Chiefs hit-or-miss pass rush. A lot will come down to how the reworked and reborn Kansas City secondary plays. They were great at times against Houston and Kansas City, but their speed approach may be susceptible against the play-action heavy 49ers offense. The Chiefs do have a slight advantage in the red zone here, with a Top-10 red zone defense, good enough to force the Titans to kick field goals (something no one did for months), against the 21st ranked red zone offense for 49ers.
Neither special teams unit is all that good. The Chiefs have more potential in the return game, but also have a habit of penaltes and even fumbles. The Chiefs have a more solid kicker, so if it comes to kicking late in the game, you may give them a slight edge. The coaches are fairly even, a nice representation of the wider Walsh coaching tree that still dominantes all non-New England success in teh NFL, with a branch on the Shanahan side playing a branch on the Holmgren side. Reid's biggest failing in clock management hasn't bugged him yet this year, and if anything Kyle Shanahan has shown some isues in that regard. In the end, all for playcallers (Reid/Bieniemy, Shanahan, Spagnuolo, Saleh) are in the zone. The most conventional is Spagnuolo, but even he has a blitzing philosophy that might make an appearance.
The Pick: This should be a great game. There are no bad units involved. Both teams are playing exceedingly well. There are stars and great players all around on both teams. Each unit has something special to watch. I can't wait to watch it, and if anyting just to watch a Super Bowl without a rooting interest. I do think the Chiefs are a slightly better team all things considered, mainly because they have the best peak upside in Mahomes and that offense. The 49ers secondary is good, but not the fastest. Their pass rush is somewhat neutralized against Mahomes who rarely takes sacks. Their rush defense has improved in the playoffs, and if the offense can get to the high-20's it will probably take some of the rushing opportunities away. I have little confidence in the pick, just confidence that this should be a great game.
Chiefs 34 49ers 29 (Chiefs -1.5)
