Monday, March 26, 2018

MLB 2018: 30 thoughts on the Season, Pr. 2


... Can the Astros work their magic on Gerritt Cole

Last year, the Astros signed a Pirates pitcher who had some decent stuff, had him re-jigger slightly, and turned him into a very capable #3 starter and the guy who shut the door in Game 7 of the World Series. Charlie Morton ended up exceeding expectations. Now the Astros get to try it again, but this time without someone who potentially has quite a bit more upside. Gerrit Colts was the #1 pick in the 2011 draft. He had an amazing 2015 season, but was just slightly above average the last two years. The stuff is all there, and the Astros have done a great job recently of taking damaged goods and turning them around. If they can run it back again with Cole, they might have a truly scary starting rotation.


... Strasburg's rise

Speaking of scary rotations, the Nationals best pitcher may not even be their guy who won the Cy Young award the last two seasons. Stephen Strasburg did the following in the second half: 12 Starts, 72 IP, 1.11 ERA, 82 Ks, WHIP of 0.85. Strasburg was a demon. He was even better in the playoffs with two dominant starts against the Cubs. Strasburg finally seems healthy, seems stable, and should do even better this season. His career is a strange one in that he had such outrageous hype it is hard to call him anything but a relative disappointment, but his actual seasons have been strong, and he seemed to put it all together last year. Despite being one of the 'superteams' there does seem to a bit of tension around the Nationals, probably in large part due to Harper's impending free agency, but with guys like Strasburg (and Scherzer, and Gio, and on and on), they still should shine from the mound.


... The Red Sox vs. Yankees

It's been a while since there was a real fun AL East race. I guess last year somewhat qualifies, but the Red Sox never seemed in too much jeopardy. But this year? It should be great. Both teams seem on paper better versions of the ones from last year, with the Sox getting much needed power into that lineup, and the Yankees getting even more power into theirs. I grew up on baseball in the early 00's and while there was nothing as overmarketed as the classic Sox Yanks games in 2003-2007, few rivalries actually delivered either. The best part right now, especially for a Boston hater like me (though not really regarding the Red Sox) is that the edge seems somewhat planted on the Yankees side of things. They got farther last year, got the bigger offseason acquisition, and now look set to add a major piece in the upcoming season. Oh, and they have the better farm system. NY is on the front foot at the moment.


... The Giants 2013 All Star Team

Watching the Giants last year was painful. In Spring, Bumgarner got hurt again and may miss a few months so that pain is continuing. That said, with the depressed state of the NL, the winnability of one of the Wild Card slots, and the acquisitions they made, there should at least be fun baseball in San Francisco. The idea of adding Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutcheon is a lot of fun, even if it is a few years late for both to actually make a meaningful difference. Then again, Longoria is only one year removed from a 127 OPS+ season, and McCutchen was at 121 OPS+ just this past year. The Giants, if they can get health from a few guys that were uncharacteristically down or hurt last year, have a clear path to .500, but what they really need is for the 2013 All Stars to still be good five years later.


... Ichiro in Seattle

Look, Ichiro is not good anymore. He hasn't really been good since 2012, though he was somewhat decent in 2016. Overall thought, him signing and going back to Seattle is purely a novelty play by both a franchise and a player who doesn't want to let go of the past. That said, sign me up immediately. Seeing Ichiro in Seattle just seems right. He may barely play, and when he does he will be a shell of the guy who left Seattle all those years back, but having him come home is just a great story for baseball. Ichiro is the most unique baseball player I've ever seen, and he was unconscionably good back in the day, and even if he just drums up memories rather than actual value, that's more than what Seattle has been given in recent years. 


... Harper & Machado: Contract Year

No surprise here; the upcoming free agency of both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be a landmark moment for baseball. There is a very realistic chance we have the $400 million mark broken in American sports for the first time. This is such a rarity, a player entering free agency with still many years of prime performance ahead of time. Harper will be 26 in 2019, and Machado will be 26/27. These are not the ages of guys that hit the open market, with years of good performance already under their belt. Yes, Trout would get a contract blowing these two out of the water, but that's not the place we are in. With Harper and Machado, we are in an amazing moment in time, and their performance this year, especially if either has a truly outstanding season, could make even $500 million come into play.


... Can the Rockies pitching keep it up?

The 2017 Rockies were a strange team. They made the playoffs off the back of pitching, as their offense struggled. Of course, you have to adjust for Colorado to see these things, but essentially they were a pitching-first Rockies team. Their young pitchers are all back for 2018 too. Jon Gray is the star (25 years, 136 ERA+), but Kyle Freeland (24, 122), Tyler Chatwood (27, 107), Antonio Sanzatela (22, 107) and Tyler Anderson (207, 104) were all quite good and gave the Rockies something that they haven't ever seen before, young, cost controlled, successful pitching. Some of the more stats inclined people I've read seem to think a lot of it was smoke and mirrors apart from Jon Gray, but even then there is hope in Colordao for the first time in a long while. It will be very interesting to see if Freeland and Sanzatela, two of the more intriguing youngsters (apart from Gray) can keep it up in 2018.


... The sneaky FA champion Brewers

The Brewers were the NLs version of the Twins, a team that competed well before anyone expected them to. They couldn't hold off the Cubs for the entire season, but were competitive fairly deep into September. They had a lot of guys perform well, but few seemed to be having years they would be incapable of repeating. And of course now they add Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain to the mix, both still young players that can produce 3-5 WAR easily. The Brewers didn't land the one big pitcher that they somewhat desperately need (assuming Chase Anderson is not the next Roy Oswalt), but being to add good defense and contact hitting to a power-hungry lineup is a great start towards repeating the 2017 season for a team still a year or two away from when most people thought they would be competitive.


... Astros year after and the Cubs year after the year after

All we heard last offseason was how the Cubs were too goo, too stacked, to fall victim to the year after effect. Well, they did, swimming aimlessly to a .500 record in the first half of the season. They caught fire in teh second half, finished with 93 wins, but were still a disappointment compared to the perfect 2016 version. This offseason was the same, but with my Astros, again hailed as being too good to get complacent, to get tired, to believe in the hype, to do all the things that normally happen (as the narrative goes) to World Series champs. Obviously, I think the Astros are too good, but it will be interesting to see if the same thing happens. For the Cubs, with a trim Schwarber, and the addition of Yu Darvish, it will be interesting to see if they can find their 2016 joie de vivre again.


... Does the mound visit limit actually change anything?

So after much show was made of ways to improve pace of play, all that was actually implemented in 2018 is a strange limit of 6 mound visits that don't end in pitcher changes. What was interesting was the analysis showed few games actually have more than six. The ones that did that caused the stir were mostly these playoff games when Brian McCann went out every 3-5 pitches. I get that was mind-numbing at times, but it was also the effing World Series. I honestly don't see how this will make a real change on pace. But it will be interesting that first time a team forgets and runs out of mound visits. I fully expect a pitching clock to come by 2020 and start making actual meaningful Iimpact on pace.


... The wonder of bullpen cars, and will other teams follow 'Zona's lead?

Yes, the Diamondbacks are bringing back the bullpen car. It is a perfectly cute one too, with a Diamondbacks cap on the top, and a white baseball structure in the middle. It is 100% awesome. This is one of the greatest developments in recent seasons. I truly hope other teams take thsi forward and we get bullpen cars reintroduced across baseball. I have no idea if it makes it any faster. I don't understand how there is not a negative imapct on the playing field. But I care zero percent about either of those two things, just to get these great bullpen cars back in our lives. Long live the bullpen car. 


... Correa, Seager, Lindor (but mainly Correa)

The 90's were ruled by shortstops, Messers Jeter, A-Rod and Nomar. The 2010s-2020s may be as well, with Correa, Lindor and Seager, all between 23-25 for this season. Lindor is the great fielder, whose power nicely spiked along with the rest of baseball. Seager and Correa are the more truly 5-tool gifted ones, and both have a chance to be truly special. Of course, my heart is with Carlos, a preternaturally gifted player that can be the next Harper/Machado mega-contract superstar. Seager is about 80-90% as good as Correa, and has a huge market to make a name for himself. Watching these three megastars grow together will truly be a great joy.


... Watching Joey Votto Hit

Slowly but surely, Votto has beaten down the haters and has started to get the credit and adulation he's long been due.


... Watching Byron Buxton and Andrelton Simmons field




... Watching the Astros, again


About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.