AFC
The "We Started Planning for the 2018 Draft Years Ago" Duo
16.) Cleveland Browns (0-13 = 197-335)
15.) Indianapolis Colts (3-10 = 212-343)
The Browns lost probably their best chance to win a game, but at least showed some moxie in the first game in the wake of their firing GM Sashi Brown. For the two clearly worst teams in the conference, they actually have some positives. The Browns have a boatload of picks and talent at places (especially defense). The Colts don't, but should, let's all damn hope, get Andrew Luck back next year, which is a better position than most 3-10 teams.
The "Mild, and I Mean Mild, Spoilers" Quinto
14.) New York Jets (5-8 = 266-311)
13.) Houston Texans (4-9 = 312-335)
12.) Denver Broncos (4-9 = 229-315)
11.) Miami Dolphins (6-7 = 236-318)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-8 = 226-271)
The back-half of the AFC is just sad. None of these is really any good. Ironically, two of them scored big wins last week (admittedly, Denver's came against one of the other in the bunch). They all have games that could screw over much better teams, but I have little faith in any of them. I think the Bengals are the best of the bunch, and if you turned 3-4 things around they may have been in the thick of the playoff race, but that listless loss to Chicago was almost stunning in its noncompetitive-ness. If you want to list a positive for each, I'll try. The Jets have shown great improvement at skill position and cornerback this year. The Texans have DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt waiting for 2018. The Broncos still have a defense that at its best can win games on its own. The Dolphins are actually still alive for the playoffs (but may be the worst playoff team in a long time if that happens), and the Bengals have the talent of an 8-5 team, and hopefully that embarrassing loss spells the end for Marvin Lewis. I like Marvin, I do, but it is just time.
The "Wild, Wild Fodder" Trio
9.) Buffalo Bills (7-6 = 240-290)
8.) Oakland Raiders (6-7 = 264-304)
7.) Tennessee Titans (8-5 = 273-294)
Technically, this group includes the two current wild card teams if the playoffs start today, but I don't buy them, nor Oakland. The Bills are technically the 6th seed due to strength of victory (a far down tiebreaker), but the QB situation is getting dicey with them going back to Tyrod Taylor. That point differential is also pretty stark for a potential playoff team. The Raiders have the talent, but seemingly lost whatever cohesive drive that worked so well last year. They have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can run the table, but the chance of that emotionally flat team doing so is fairly low. The Titans likely need to win just one of the remaining three games, but that doesn't seem so easy now that the 49ers are reborn with Jimmy G, and the Rams and Jags likely have things to play for in the other games. With Mariota's injury lingering, that team is far less exciting to watch in a potential playoff game. Only silver lining if they get there is to wipe away one of the remaining streaks of years since making the playoffs (last done in 2008 for Tennessee).
The "It's kind of Sad the AFC West Came to This" Duo
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-6 = 329-289)
5.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-6 = 298-225)
If we go back to Week 2, the AFC West seemed like the strongest division in the NFL The Raiders were an impressive 2-0. The Chiefs an even more impressive 2-0 (beating New England and Philadelphia). The Broncos might have been an even more impressive 2-0 after hammering Dallas. The Chargers were 0-2, but lost both games by a field goal or less. Fast-forward 12 weeks and that division turned into a mess - almost guaranteed to provide the worst record of any division winner. The Chiefs may have righted themselves with a commanding win over the Raiders, and the Chargers have quietly been among the best teams in football since their 0-4 start, including having a clear Top-5 defense all of a sudden. I think both teams are better than their record, but it is a shame the record has fallen this far.
The "They may just do it Again!?" Uno
4.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6 = 318-246)
Man, had the Ravens held onto that lead they would be looking mighty scary right now, with a great defense, excellent special teams, and an offense that had started to wake up. Where was the Joe Flacco that played against Pittsburgh before? Where did this vintage Joe come back from? If that guy continues and the Ravens sneak in (not impossible - sweeping three winnable games more or less guarantees them that spot) they may be quite dangerous. The loss of Jimmy Smith seems like it will be felt, as the Steelers abused the Ravens depth secondary. Then again, not every team is as equipped to do so.
The "Secretly, are they the best AFC Team" Uno
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4 = 329-202)
Who has the best point differential of any AFC Team? Jacksonville. Who has the best pythagoreon win record? Jacksonville. Who has the best single unit of any AFC team? Jacksonville, with their monstrous defense that has help opposing QBs to a 66.4 passer rating, 13 TDs to 19 INTs, and sacked them 47 times. Even the offense has kind of stabilized recently, with Blake Bortles putting together a few nice games (and a legitimately good one against Seattle) and a healthy Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars path to a 1st round bye is fairly clear: win out and have Pittsburgh beat New England (or New England win, and Pittsburgh lose another game). If they do, I don't think anyone, including potential #3 seed New England, wants to go there and play that defense.
The "Openly, one of us is the best AFC Team" Duo
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2 = 320-251)
1.) New England Patriots (10-3 = 368-250)
Then again, 13 games in we are exactly where we thought we would be: the Steelers and Patriots are the best two teams in the conference and the winner of their head-to-head will be the #1 seed. No real surprise there. The Steelers grade out better in teh analytics than the eye test, with the Patriots being the opposite. Luckily for New England, the opposite generally can mean more.
NFC
The "Scouting for 2017 Began Right Now" Uno
16.) New York Giants (2-11 = 199-321)
So looks like putting Eli Manning back in the starting lineup wasn't going to be a panacea. The Giants are a mess, they've cleaned house, but they have to throw out Eli as well. Not saying Eli can't be a decent QB somewhere else (Jacksonville jumps out), but its not happening in New York. They have to clean house completely, not try to hang on to vestiges of an era that was anyway just hanging on the vestiges of the real window that closed in 2012.
The "Evaluating the Future" Trio
15.) San Francisco 49ers (3-10 = 228-314)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9 = 264-312)
13.) Chicago Bears (4-9 = 224-274)
These three teams are not good, but all have interesting questions going forward, whether it be these last three games, or into next season. The 49ers seemed to have found their QB in Jimmy G. Two strong performances with him and already there seems to be a connection with Kyle Shanahan's scheme. If anything, it seems fairly certain this trade will work out better than the last time a team traded a 2nd round pick for a Brady backup (Chiefs with Cassel). The Buccaneers seemingly have their QB, but Jameis has regressed mightily in his third season. I still believe in him as a leader and player, but it seems his ceiling may be Cam Newton with a lower ceiling, or Roethlisberger with a lower ceiling. The Bears have their QB seemingly in Trubisky, but the main question is do they need to change coaching staffs? I believe they do, that the game has passed John Fox, and Trubisky won't flourish under him. But games like last week when they house Cincinnati may pain that a bit to where the Bears are fooled into keeping him.
The "Mild Spoilers" Duo
12.) Arizona Cardinals (6-7 = 231-317)
11.) Washington Redskins (5-8 = 285-344)
Neither of these teams is making the playoffs (luckily in the NFC we can make these declarative statements about 6-7 teams), but both provide enough matchup challenges to their opponents. They actually play each other this week, but the Cardinals have a chance to spoil Seattle's season in Week 17. The Redskins are playing no one with playoff implications, but the question for them becomes Kirk Cousins future. If they were a well run franchise, the Cousins decision would essentially be decided by now, one way or the other, but the Redskins are not one of those.
The "One of us could just sneak in!" Trio
10.) Green Bay Packers (7-6 = 285-302)
9.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6 = 316-294)
8.) Detroit Lions (7-6 = 338-329)
Every team here on out is making the playoffs, or may make the playoffs plus wouldn't be a fraudulent wild-card fodder team if they do. The Packers seemingly will bring Rodgers back, throwing him to the fire knowing they have basically zero margin for error. I can foresee a situation where if he gets hit a bit, they lose the game, see their playoff chances willow away, and they site Rodgers the last two weeks. However, if they do run the table and sneak in.... For Dallas, the schedule is tough, but hte path is there with Zeke Elliott coming back after next week. The Lions to me have the strongest current resume, already have a win over the Packers, and have a high enough ceiling to go there. I give them the least chance to make noise if they get in, but I do feel people are understating their chances.
The "NFC's only hope to return ANYONE to the playoffs, and it may be the #6 seed" Duo
7.) Atlanta Falcons (8-5 = 294-261)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5 = 314-252)
There is a very good chance the NFC only returns one of the six playoff teams from last year. The five teams ranked ahead of these two are all currently making the playoffs and didn't make it last year. The three teams in the previous group all made it last year, along with the Giants. This hasn't really happened ever. Given the Redskins slipped away, at the very least one of the teams is returning, and most likely it is one of these two. The paths are rather clear. They can afford to lose one game (but probably not two). They even have decent shots at winning their division. However, most likely they are the #6 seed in one of the most topsy-turvy seasons for a conference we've seen - surprisingly not impacting how good the top of the conference does seem.
The "Great NFC South Race... That's Probably Decided" Duo
5.) Carolina Panthers (9-4 = 300-262)
4.) New Orleans Saints (9-4 = 370-263)
The Panthers will not go quietly into the night for that division, and are ready to, no pun intended, pounce on the Saints hold if they slip up. Both teams have fairly clear landmines to slip up, including the Saints visit to Tampa (a place they've been so-so in historically) and hosting the Falcons, while the Panthers host the Rodgers-helmed Packers and travel to Atlanta. Both teams are validated playoff caliber teams, and I want them both in and wouldn't mind a round 3 in this rivalry on Wild Card Weekend.
The "Three Great Teams, Three Great Questionmarks" Trio
3.) Los Angeles Rams (9-4 = 396-265)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-2 = 404-250)
1.) Minnesota Vikings (10-3 = 309-235)
Man, that Carson Wentz injury really screws with things, huh? I think Foles will be acceptable at QB, and that the team isn't going to fall apart, but the NFC had a clear best team, and now they have three teams that by resume are the three best, but have significant questions. For the Rams it is can they beat the good teams. Their point differential is excellent. Their DVOA tops the league, and is Top-5 in each of offense, defense and special teams. But they've also lost their big statement games to Philadelphia, Minnesota and Seattle, and if they can't fix that and beat Seattle next week they can slip into Wild Card territory. For the Vikings, their resume is stellar, but questions are now coming back about Case Keenum after the loss to Carolina. Personally, they need to stick with Keenum. It's to late to change for 2017.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 13-3
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 13-3
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 12-4
4.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-7
5.) Tennessee Titans = 10-6
6.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-7
NFC
1.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-3
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 13-3
3.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
4.) Los Angeles Rams = 11-5
5.) Carolina Panthers = 11-5
6.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Denver Broncos (4-9) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-10) (TNF - NFLN)
15.) Arizona Cardinals (6-7) @ Washington Redskins (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Two Bad Games with Two Bad Teams" Thursday and Sunday, as when you get this deep into the season, ranking games gets really cut and dry. Games between two teams with no playoff hopes are pushed to the bottom. These two don't even have any interesting side-story going for it.
14.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (0-13) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) New York Jets (5-8) @ New Orleans Saints (9-4) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Houston Texans (4-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) @ New York Giants (2-11) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Tennessee Titans (8-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-10) (4:25 - CBS)
8.) Atlanta Falcons (8-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) Chicago Bears (4-9) @ Detroit Lions (7-6) (Sat Night - NFLN)
I call it "One Bad Team vs. One Good Team" Saturday, Sunday and Monday, as the next set is the games between one bad team with no playoff chances versus one that does. I had no idea how to rank most of these. The dour Cleveland gets last place. Then comes a whole host of games with teams that are more or less locked into the playoffs against bad ones. Finally, three games where we get teams that are not assured of the playoffs against a worse opponent. Interesting one is Tennessee, who is playing nothing like an 8-5 team against a 49ers team on a 2-game win streak with their shiny new QB in Garroppolo. Finally, the Lions who are clinging to life against the reborn Bears looking to pull a 2nd straight spoiler-riffic upset. Also, Saturday football is back!
6.) Miami Dolphins (6-7) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6) @ Oakland Raiders (6-7) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Loser Leaves Town" Sunday, as we get two games between playoff contenders where the loser is more or less done (maybe not Buffalo, but probably even them too). The Dolphins and Raiders get their shot at going back to .500, but are probably underdogs in these games. The Cowboys seemed to have righted the ship just in time to welcome Elliott back next week, but need to get over this trap game to make that even matter. Cowboys @ Raiders can be an interesting night game in a season of night games that looked great before it started. Very few lived up to the hype, and while this game featured teams that were 13-3 and 12-4 last year, the game retained a lot of meaning.
4.) Green Bay Packers (7-6) @ Carolina Panthers (9-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The Triumphant Return or the End of Such Things" Sunday, as Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. It seems clear he wants to come back, and any shot of a playoff push rests on his shoulders. Brett Hundley did an admirable job going 3-4 in his action, but the last two wins were in OT against bad teams. That won't beat Carolina, who solidified thier spot last week. If anything, Carolina is a team that can beat a Rodgers-led Packers team, and especially get after him with a Top-5 pass rush. It will be interesting to see if the Packers bite the bullet, knowing a loss here more or less ends their chances anyway.
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) (Sat Night - NFLN)
2.) Los Angeles Rams (9-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-5) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "LA Dreaming" Saturday and Sunday, as we get two really nice games that can go a long way to settle the winners of the West divisions, featuring the LA teams playing on the road. The first game may settle the division. A Chiefs win gives them head-to-head sweeps over both LA and Oakland, and puts them a win away from clinching. I don't have the math PhD necessary to tell you what happens if the Chargers win, but gives them a great position. The real great game is the Rams @ Seahawks. Somehow, despite their woes, a Seahawks win at home gives them the season sweep and an inside track to a home playoff game. A Rams win more or less settles the division, one they deserve to win anyway. I'll be pushing for the two LA teams. I'm sure they won't both win. Hopefully one does.
1.) New England Patriots (10-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "One of the biggest Regular Season Games in Years" Sunday, as instead of trying to break it down (its Patriots vs. Steelers, the Pats will win like always), I'll try to come up with the most recent regular season game that was more important. Some for historical reasons could be pushed up, like any team that reached this point 13-0 and had games to threaten perfection (The 2011 Packers losing in this spot, or the 2015 Panthers losing the following week). But neither of their opponents were playoff contenders. The closest that came to mind was the Week 16 game in 2008 with the 11-3 Panthers playing the 11-3 Giants in New York, where the winner would clinch the #1 seed. There was a 2015 game in Week 16 where a 11-3 Bengals team played a 10-4 Broncos team. That ended up deciding the #1 seed, but at the time seemed it would decide the #2 seed, but the Patriots would blow the Week 17 Game in Miami. There's really no recent comparison excluding win-and-you're-in Week 17 games or games chasing perfection, since that 2008 Week 16 game.
The "We Started Planning for the 2018 Draft Years Ago" Duo
16.) Cleveland Browns (0-13 = 197-335)
15.) Indianapolis Colts (3-10 = 212-343)
The Browns lost probably their best chance to win a game, but at least showed some moxie in the first game in the wake of their firing GM Sashi Brown. For the two clearly worst teams in the conference, they actually have some positives. The Browns have a boatload of picks and talent at places (especially defense). The Colts don't, but should, let's all damn hope, get Andrew Luck back next year, which is a better position than most 3-10 teams.
The "Mild, and I Mean Mild, Spoilers" Quinto
14.) New York Jets (5-8 = 266-311)
13.) Houston Texans (4-9 = 312-335)
12.) Denver Broncos (4-9 = 229-315)
11.) Miami Dolphins (6-7 = 236-318)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-8 = 226-271)
The back-half of the AFC is just sad. None of these is really any good. Ironically, two of them scored big wins last week (admittedly, Denver's came against one of the other in the bunch). They all have games that could screw over much better teams, but I have little faith in any of them. I think the Bengals are the best of the bunch, and if you turned 3-4 things around they may have been in the thick of the playoff race, but that listless loss to Chicago was almost stunning in its noncompetitive-ness. If you want to list a positive for each, I'll try. The Jets have shown great improvement at skill position and cornerback this year. The Texans have DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt waiting for 2018. The Broncos still have a defense that at its best can win games on its own. The Dolphins are actually still alive for the playoffs (but may be the worst playoff team in a long time if that happens), and the Bengals have the talent of an 8-5 team, and hopefully that embarrassing loss spells the end for Marvin Lewis. I like Marvin, I do, but it is just time.
The "Wild, Wild Fodder" Trio
9.) Buffalo Bills (7-6 = 240-290)
8.) Oakland Raiders (6-7 = 264-304)
7.) Tennessee Titans (8-5 = 273-294)
Technically, this group includes the two current wild card teams if the playoffs start today, but I don't buy them, nor Oakland. The Bills are technically the 6th seed due to strength of victory (a far down tiebreaker), but the QB situation is getting dicey with them going back to Tyrod Taylor. That point differential is also pretty stark for a potential playoff team. The Raiders have the talent, but seemingly lost whatever cohesive drive that worked so well last year. They have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can run the table, but the chance of that emotionally flat team doing so is fairly low. The Titans likely need to win just one of the remaining three games, but that doesn't seem so easy now that the 49ers are reborn with Jimmy G, and the Rams and Jags likely have things to play for in the other games. With Mariota's injury lingering, that team is far less exciting to watch in a potential playoff game. Only silver lining if they get there is to wipe away one of the remaining streaks of years since making the playoffs (last done in 2008 for Tennessee).
The "It's kind of Sad the AFC West Came to This" Duo
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-6 = 329-289)
5.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-6 = 298-225)
If we go back to Week 2, the AFC West seemed like the strongest division in the NFL The Raiders were an impressive 2-0. The Chiefs an even more impressive 2-0 (beating New England and Philadelphia). The Broncos might have been an even more impressive 2-0 after hammering Dallas. The Chargers were 0-2, but lost both games by a field goal or less. Fast-forward 12 weeks and that division turned into a mess - almost guaranteed to provide the worst record of any division winner. The Chiefs may have righted themselves with a commanding win over the Raiders, and the Chargers have quietly been among the best teams in football since their 0-4 start, including having a clear Top-5 defense all of a sudden. I think both teams are better than their record, but it is a shame the record has fallen this far.
The "They may just do it Again!?" Uno
4.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6 = 318-246)
Man, had the Ravens held onto that lead they would be looking mighty scary right now, with a great defense, excellent special teams, and an offense that had started to wake up. Where was the Joe Flacco that played against Pittsburgh before? Where did this vintage Joe come back from? If that guy continues and the Ravens sneak in (not impossible - sweeping three winnable games more or less guarantees them that spot) they may be quite dangerous. The loss of Jimmy Smith seems like it will be felt, as the Steelers abused the Ravens depth secondary. Then again, not every team is as equipped to do so.
The "Secretly, are they the best AFC Team" Uno
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4 = 329-202)
Who has the best point differential of any AFC Team? Jacksonville. Who has the best pythagoreon win record? Jacksonville. Who has the best single unit of any AFC team? Jacksonville, with their monstrous defense that has help opposing QBs to a 66.4 passer rating, 13 TDs to 19 INTs, and sacked them 47 times. Even the offense has kind of stabilized recently, with Blake Bortles putting together a few nice games (and a legitimately good one against Seattle) and a healthy Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars path to a 1st round bye is fairly clear: win out and have Pittsburgh beat New England (or New England win, and Pittsburgh lose another game). If they do, I don't think anyone, including potential #3 seed New England, wants to go there and play that defense.
The "Openly, one of us is the best AFC Team" Duo
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2 = 320-251)
1.) New England Patriots (10-3 = 368-250)
Then again, 13 games in we are exactly where we thought we would be: the Steelers and Patriots are the best two teams in the conference and the winner of their head-to-head will be the #1 seed. No real surprise there. The Steelers grade out better in teh analytics than the eye test, with the Patriots being the opposite. Luckily for New England, the opposite generally can mean more.
NFC
The "Scouting for 2017 Began Right Now" Uno
16.) New York Giants (2-11 = 199-321)
So looks like putting Eli Manning back in the starting lineup wasn't going to be a panacea. The Giants are a mess, they've cleaned house, but they have to throw out Eli as well. Not saying Eli can't be a decent QB somewhere else (Jacksonville jumps out), but its not happening in New York. They have to clean house completely, not try to hang on to vestiges of an era that was anyway just hanging on the vestiges of the real window that closed in 2012.
The "Evaluating the Future" Trio
15.) San Francisco 49ers (3-10 = 228-314)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9 = 264-312)
13.) Chicago Bears (4-9 = 224-274)
These three teams are not good, but all have interesting questions going forward, whether it be these last three games, or into next season. The 49ers seemed to have found their QB in Jimmy G. Two strong performances with him and already there seems to be a connection with Kyle Shanahan's scheme. If anything, it seems fairly certain this trade will work out better than the last time a team traded a 2nd round pick for a Brady backup (Chiefs with Cassel). The Buccaneers seemingly have their QB, but Jameis has regressed mightily in his third season. I still believe in him as a leader and player, but it seems his ceiling may be Cam Newton with a lower ceiling, or Roethlisberger with a lower ceiling. The Bears have their QB seemingly in Trubisky, but the main question is do they need to change coaching staffs? I believe they do, that the game has passed John Fox, and Trubisky won't flourish under him. But games like last week when they house Cincinnati may pain that a bit to where the Bears are fooled into keeping him.
The "Mild Spoilers" Duo
12.) Arizona Cardinals (6-7 = 231-317)
11.) Washington Redskins (5-8 = 285-344)
Neither of these teams is making the playoffs (luckily in the NFC we can make these declarative statements about 6-7 teams), but both provide enough matchup challenges to their opponents. They actually play each other this week, but the Cardinals have a chance to spoil Seattle's season in Week 17. The Redskins are playing no one with playoff implications, but the question for them becomes Kirk Cousins future. If they were a well run franchise, the Cousins decision would essentially be decided by now, one way or the other, but the Redskins are not one of those.
The "One of us could just sneak in!" Trio
10.) Green Bay Packers (7-6 = 285-302)
9.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6 = 316-294)
8.) Detroit Lions (7-6 = 338-329)
Every team here on out is making the playoffs, or may make the playoffs plus wouldn't be a fraudulent wild-card fodder team if they do. The Packers seemingly will bring Rodgers back, throwing him to the fire knowing they have basically zero margin for error. I can foresee a situation where if he gets hit a bit, they lose the game, see their playoff chances willow away, and they site Rodgers the last two weeks. However, if they do run the table and sneak in.... For Dallas, the schedule is tough, but hte path is there with Zeke Elliott coming back after next week. The Lions to me have the strongest current resume, already have a win over the Packers, and have a high enough ceiling to go there. I give them the least chance to make noise if they get in, but I do feel people are understating their chances.
The "NFC's only hope to return ANYONE to the playoffs, and it may be the #6 seed" Duo
7.) Atlanta Falcons (8-5 = 294-261)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5 = 314-252)
There is a very good chance the NFC only returns one of the six playoff teams from last year. The five teams ranked ahead of these two are all currently making the playoffs and didn't make it last year. The three teams in the previous group all made it last year, along with the Giants. This hasn't really happened ever. Given the Redskins slipped away, at the very least one of the teams is returning, and most likely it is one of these two. The paths are rather clear. They can afford to lose one game (but probably not two). They even have decent shots at winning their division. However, most likely they are the #6 seed in one of the most topsy-turvy seasons for a conference we've seen - surprisingly not impacting how good the top of the conference does seem.
The "Great NFC South Race... That's Probably Decided" Duo
5.) Carolina Panthers (9-4 = 300-262)
4.) New Orleans Saints (9-4 = 370-263)
The Panthers will not go quietly into the night for that division, and are ready to, no pun intended, pounce on the Saints hold if they slip up. Both teams have fairly clear landmines to slip up, including the Saints visit to Tampa (a place they've been so-so in historically) and hosting the Falcons, while the Panthers host the Rodgers-helmed Packers and travel to Atlanta. Both teams are validated playoff caliber teams, and I want them both in and wouldn't mind a round 3 in this rivalry on Wild Card Weekend.
The "Three Great Teams, Three Great Questionmarks" Trio
3.) Los Angeles Rams (9-4 = 396-265)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-2 = 404-250)
1.) Minnesota Vikings (10-3 = 309-235)
Man, that Carson Wentz injury really screws with things, huh? I think Foles will be acceptable at QB, and that the team isn't going to fall apart, but the NFC had a clear best team, and now they have three teams that by resume are the three best, but have significant questions. For the Rams it is can they beat the good teams. Their point differential is excellent. Their DVOA tops the league, and is Top-5 in each of offense, defense and special teams. But they've also lost their big statement games to Philadelphia, Minnesota and Seattle, and if they can't fix that and beat Seattle next week they can slip into Wild Card territory. For the Vikings, their resume is stellar, but questions are now coming back about Case Keenum after the loss to Carolina. Personally, they need to stick with Keenum. It's to late to change for 2017.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 13-3
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 13-3
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 12-4
4.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-7
5.) Tennessee Titans = 10-6
6.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-7
NFC
1.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-3
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 13-3
3.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
4.) Los Angeles Rams = 11-5
5.) Carolina Panthers = 11-5
6.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Denver Broncos (4-9) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-10) (TNF - NFLN)
15.) Arizona Cardinals (6-7) @ Washington Redskins (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Two Bad Games with Two Bad Teams" Thursday and Sunday, as when you get this deep into the season, ranking games gets really cut and dry. Games between two teams with no playoff hopes are pushed to the bottom. These two don't even have any interesting side-story going for it.
14.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (0-13) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) New York Jets (5-8) @ New Orleans Saints (9-4) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Houston Texans (4-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) @ New York Giants (2-11) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Tennessee Titans (8-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-10) (4:25 - CBS)
8.) Atlanta Falcons (8-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) Chicago Bears (4-9) @ Detroit Lions (7-6) (Sat Night - NFLN)
6.) Miami Dolphins (6-7) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6) @ Oakland Raiders (6-7) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Loser Leaves Town" Sunday, as we get two games between playoff contenders where the loser is more or less done (maybe not Buffalo, but probably even them too). The Dolphins and Raiders get their shot at going back to .500, but are probably underdogs in these games. The Cowboys seemed to have righted the ship just in time to welcome Elliott back next week, but need to get over this trap game to make that even matter. Cowboys @ Raiders can be an interesting night game in a season of night games that looked great before it started. Very few lived up to the hype, and while this game featured teams that were 13-3 and 12-4 last year, the game retained a lot of meaning.
4.) Green Bay Packers (7-6) @ Carolina Panthers (9-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The Triumphant Return or the End of Such Things" Sunday, as Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. It seems clear he wants to come back, and any shot of a playoff push rests on his shoulders. Brett Hundley did an admirable job going 3-4 in his action, but the last two wins were in OT against bad teams. That won't beat Carolina, who solidified thier spot last week. If anything, Carolina is a team that can beat a Rodgers-led Packers team, and especially get after him with a Top-5 pass rush. It will be interesting to see if the Packers bite the bullet, knowing a loss here more or less ends their chances anyway.
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) (Sat Night - NFLN)
2.) Los Angeles Rams (9-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-5) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "LA Dreaming" Saturday and Sunday, as we get two really nice games that can go a long way to settle the winners of the West divisions, featuring the LA teams playing on the road. The first game may settle the division. A Chiefs win gives them head-to-head sweeps over both LA and Oakland, and puts them a win away from clinching. I don't have the math PhD necessary to tell you what happens if the Chargers win, but gives them a great position. The real great game is the Rams @ Seahawks. Somehow, despite their woes, a Seahawks win at home gives them the season sweep and an inside track to a home playoff game. A Rams win more or less settles the division, one they deserve to win anyway. I'll be pushing for the two LA teams. I'm sure they won't both win. Hopefully one does.
1.) New England Patriots (10-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "One of the biggest Regular Season Games in Years" Sunday, as instead of trying to break it down (its Patriots vs. Steelers, the Pats will win like always), I'll try to come up with the most recent regular season game that was more important. Some for historical reasons could be pushed up, like any team that reached this point 13-0 and had games to threaten perfection (The 2011 Packers losing in this spot, or the 2015 Panthers losing the following week). But neither of their opponents were playoff contenders. The closest that came to mind was the Week 16 game in 2008 with the 11-3 Panthers playing the 11-3 Giants in New York, where the winner would clinch the #1 seed. There was a 2015 game in Week 16 where a 11-3 Bengals team played a 10-4 Broncos team. That ended up deciding the #1 seed, but at the time seemed it would decide the #2 seed, but the Patriots would blow the Week 17 Game in Miami. There's really no recent comparison excluding win-and-you're-in Week 17 games or games chasing perfection, since that 2008 Week 16 game.
