Tuesday, November 28, 2017

NFL 2017: Week 13 Power Rankings & the Rest

Tier I - The "Scouting Sam Darnold Since Yesterday" Quadro

32.) Cleveland Browns  (0-11  =  166-289)
31.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-10  =  187-284)
30.) Miami Dolphins  (4-7  =  174-289)
29.) New York Giants  (2-9  =  172-267)

The bottom two have essentially been the bottom two all season long, so no real need to linger with them. The Dolphins were at one point 4-2. At that point they were the worst 4-2 team I've ever seen. Even five losses later, they may be the worst 4-7 team I've ever seen. If not for some magic dust leading them to a 10-win season last year, we would really start to question this Adam Gase regime. Worse was their defensive fall-off without Vance Joseph - their pressure rate has sharply fallen. The Giants are notable because they are finally, maybe, turning the page with the news that Eli Manning will sit next week. I have no real idea why they will play Geno Smith instead of Davis Webb, but whatever. It was time. I'll always have a soft spot for Eli since if not for him (and Justin Tuck and others), the Patriots would have 7 Super Bowls, and I'm really interested to see where he goes. My hopes: Jacksonville, or Arizona (if Carson Palmer retires).


Tier II - The "Can We Move On" Duo

28.) Indianapolis Colts  (3-8  =  195-300)
27.) Chicago Bears  (3-8  =  177-252)


Both these teams will be forever stuck in neutral until they cut the cord on their current coaches. Chuck Pagano has skated by way too long wasting Andrew Luck's career. The Bears haven't had John Fox for nearly as long, but I do think the game has passed him by. It better happen this year. If somehow Pagano survives and Luck comes back healthy, they may return to 9-7 or 10-6, but that is still hiding a terrible team behind a great QB. With the Bears, if Trubisky steps up, Fox too will have an out. Better to get them out sooner rather than later, and let someone come in to blow things up in Indy, and a better, more modern defensive coach to work with the Bears talented front.


Tier III - The "Bad Spoilers" Trio

26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (4-7  =  223-262)
25.) New York Jets  (4-7  =  228-257)
24.) Denver Broncos  (3-8  =  197-280)

There are a ton of teams in that mediocre to decent range. Some of them have outside playoff shots. A couple would be in the playoffs if it were to start today. These three bring up the rear in that group, with no real playoff shot, but can easily play spoiler. The Bucs have righted the ship the last few weeks, and with Jameis potentially coming back they could make noise in a division with a lot of inter-division games to play. The Jets have been frisky all year, and their young skill position players, headed by Robbie Anderson, can collectively steal a game if their D-Line continues to play well. Denver is in free-fall, but that defense will probably put together two more classic performances this season. In a quiet year, Von Miller still has 8.5 sacks.


Tier IV - The "Not as Bad Spoilers" Duo

23.) Arizona Cardinals  (5-6  =  203-278)
22.) Dallas Cowboys  (5-6  =  248-270)


If these two were in the AFC, we would say they have a shot (anyone at 5-6 or better does). In the NFC, they are basically dead and buried. Then again, they have negative point differentials, are missing key players (David Johnson and Palmer for Arizona, Zeke for the Cowboys). The Cowboys almost have to improve, but it is a glaring sign when they can't score 10 points in the three games since Elliott's suspension began. The Cardinals point differential is terrible, but the defense is getting healthier and can steal a game or two, especially at home.


Tier V - The "Man, it Could've Been So Much Different" Duo

21.) Houston Texans  (4-7  =  283-285)
20.) Green Bay Packers  (5-6  =  232-261)


This whole season will either be defined by the really good set of top teams (we may have a historically strong group of positive point differential teams), or it will be defined by the QB injuries. It will likely be the latter, and the two biggest probably have been DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. The Texans have been bad without Watson but the defense has improved the last couple weeks, and they may be slowly morphing into the teams that went 9-7 the last two years. The Packers played inspired against Pittsburgh, but there is a cap to their ability without Rodgers. I was impressed by Hundley's markedly improved pocket presence in that game. Rodgers may be back, and there is a small route to the playoffs if they run the table, but honestly I'm not sure it is worth it for him to do so.


Tier VI - The "Token Inexplicable Playoff Team" Uno

19.) Tennessee Titans  (7-4  =  242-269)

Every year we have one of these. The team that somehow won 9-11 games, despite being outscored or close to it. That team almost always loses their first playoff game, well unless they have Marshawn Lynch. The Titans are that team. Their schedule even lines up favorably, with vsHOU, @ARZ, @SF, coming up on the schedule. This average team with Mariota playing really poorly and their exotic smashmouth not really working, can easily be 10-4 if they take care of business. I so don't want them anywhere near the playoffs, but it seems quite likely given that schedule and the rest of the AFC. That all said, Mariota could get out of his pick-happy funk, the team could gel again, and maybe they would be a dangerous wild card weekend upset pick.


Tier VII - The "Good Spoilers" Duo

18.) Cincinnati Bengals  (5-6  =  199-215)
17.) Washington Redskins  (5-6  =  258-276)

These two teams probably could have held this spot last year as well. The Bengals have a slightly better shot at the playoffs given their being in the AFC. Their tough schedule probably precludes them from doing so, but Andy Dalton has been playing well as the O-Line finally gelled, and their defense has been quietly good all year. The Redskins are the NFC equivalent. Every piece is there, but they are just not as good as the sum of their parts. Kirk Cousins has been playing very close to the line of whether they should re-sign him or not. That may be one of my favorite under-the-radar storylines of the rest of the season.


Tier VIII - The "Bloated Middle of Semi-Contenders" Quinto

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  (5-6  =  249-202)
15.) Detroit Lions  (6-5  =  294-264)
14.) Oakland Raiders  (5-6  =  225-261)

13.) Buffalo Bills  (6-5  =  224-260)
12.) Kansas City Chiefs  (6-5  =  272-236)


This is an interesting group. The two best teams seem to be the two that are 5-6. The Chargers are 5-1 in their past 6 (the one loss being to New England, when they did stupid things like run backwards on punt returns that become safeties). The Raiders are 3-2 in their last four, and are 5-4 when David Carr starts and finishes the game. The other three are 6-5 but in various levels of disarray. The Chiefs I still believe in in the long term, but are now 1-5 in their last six, and there is talk of Alex Smith getting replaced - something I find ridiculous. Why? Because we just saw what happens to fringe contenders that bench their starting QBs in the Bills, who may have turned back from that bit of lunacy just soon enough. Finally the Lions. Oh, the Lions. I guess they can still make the playoffs, but that defense has started to crater, finally feeling the impact of Ngata's injury. In totality, all five of these teams are quite good, All have taken interesting paths to get there. All still have shots (the Chiefs and Bills are in the playoffs as of today). I can't see any more than two of these five making it.


Tier IX - The "Token One Team No One Wants to Make It" Uno

11.) Seattle Seahawks  (7-4  =  266-212)

There's always that team. In past, it's even been Seattle, as recently as 2015, but that year they weren't really in any danger. The best example might be the 2010 Packers, who were a lot better than this Seahawks team. They did sneak in. Anyway, Seattle still has zero running game, and even with some stabilization of the OL, Russell Wilson is being asked to do way too much at this point - to the degree where he leads the NFL in attempts. The defensive injuries are just crushing as well. The front seven is as good as ever - Bennett and Wagner have been as good as ever - but having no secondary depth is really hurting them. If they Seahawks can bandy their way in, they will be scary, even if the division leaders are all quite formidable.


Tier X - The "Broncos Did it in 2015?" Duo

10.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (7-4  =  269-168)
9.) Baltimore Ravens  (6-5  =  236-187)

While we all were laughing at Joe Flacco, the Ravens suddenly turned into an almost as good as the Jaguars version of the 2015 Broncos. Bad offense, with scatter-shot QBs, But incredible defenses. The Jaguars pass defense has been historically great this season. Baltimore's full defense has been excellent, now #1 in Football Outsider's DVOA. The Ravens also have the league's top Special Teams - no real surprise there. All year I lauded the Jaguars and hated on Baltimore, but in reality they are the same. The Ravens have had the good fortune of playing a spate of backup QBs (EJ Manuel, Brett Hundley, Tom Savage), but have dominated each one thoroughly. The Jags need to reign Bortles in - he had been playing fairly well until these last three weeks.


Tier XI - The "Great NFC South Chase" Trio

8.) Atlanta Falcons  (7-4  =  265-230)
7.) Carolina Panthers  (8-3  =  248-207)
6.) New Orleans Saints  (8-3  =  322-222)

Oh Man, what a division. What I really love is the number of games against each other left. The Panthers have to play at Atlanta and New Orleans still, after beating the former and losing to the latter at home. The Saints have the aforementioned Panthers game this week, and then two games against Atlanta the next two after that. The Falcons obviously have the reverse of the other three. You have to imagine that is where the division is one. All three have one game each against Tampa Bay. The Saints have the easiest non-NFC South schedule left, with one game against the Jets, while Atlanta has Minnesota and Carolina has Minnesota and Green Bay (potentially with Rodgers). I would still favor the Saints, but we've somewhat seen this story before when Carolina stole the division in 2013, and a less-good version of this when Carolina again stole it at 7-8-1 in 2014. Thankfully, 7-8-1 already isn't good enough. 11-5 probably won't be good enough. There is a path for two of them to finish 12-4 (though it will be tough given the head-to-head games still left). I can't wait.


Tier XII - "Don't Tell Me There are No Great Teams" Quadro

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (9-2  =  258-193)
4.) Los Angeles Rams  (8-3  =  329-206)
3.) New England Patriots  (9-2  =  325-220)
2.) Minnesota Vikings  (9-2  =  271-195)

So much this season I've heard how the level of play is bad, how the season has no great teams. That's all bullshit. This season has more really good teams by point differential and record than in most past years (2015 comes close). It's just not, largely, the teams we all expected. In this foursome, and including the one to come, are two AFC teams everyone expected, and three NFC ones few did. The Rams are on pace to score 479 and allow 300. The Patriots to score 473 and allow 320. The Vikings to score 394 and allow 284. The Steelers a relatively soft 375 and 281. Quickly, two teams already passed in New Orleans and Jacksonville are already above +100. These four teams are all really good (Pittsburgh has a really high DVOA). This season has great teams. Just not one's we expected. Also what it has is really balanced teams, aside from New England.


Tier XIII - "This Could be Something Special" Uno

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  (10-1  =  351-191)

And the best of those teams is the Eagles, who are on pace to score 510 points and allow 278. That potential +222 point differential, especially with such low points allowed is quite rare. They can join a very select group of teams in what I like to call to 500/200 club, score 500+ poimts and allow between 200-299. Only six teams have done this. The 2007 Patriots (589-274), 2001 Rams (503-273), 1999 Rams (526-242), 1998 Vikings (556-296), 1994 49ers (505-296) and 1984 Dolphins (513-298). The Eagles are truly on one right now (the 2015 Panthers come close, by the way,,scoring 500 and allowing 308. The Eagles recent games are an incredible run. The defense is awesome. The offense is nearly as good. There is nothing they can't do right now.


Projecting the Playoff Field

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  13-3
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  12-4
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  11-5
4.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  9-7
5.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills  =  9-7


NFC

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  14-2
2.) Minnesota Vikings  =  12-4
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  12-4
4.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4
5.) Carolina Panthers  =  11-5
6.) Atlanta Falcons  =  10-6


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) San Francisco 49ers (1-10)  @  Chicago Bears (3-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Denver Broncos (3-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cleveland Browns (0-11)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (5-6)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Thankfully there are only four of these" Sunday,


12.) Indianapolis Colts (3-8)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) New York Giants (2-9)  @  Oakland Raiders (5-6)  (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Los Angeles Rams (8-3)  @  Arizona Cardinas (5-6)  (4:25 - FOX)
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)  @  New York Jets (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Houston Texans (4-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (7-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The Good, The Bad and the Ugly" Sunday,


7.) New England Patriots (9-2)  @  Buffalo Bills (6-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Why has God foresaken me?" Sunday,


6.) Detroit Lions (6-5)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Washington Redskins (5-6)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-6)  (TNF - NBC)
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "There's a lot to play for" Weekend.


3.) Minnesota Vikings (9-2)  @  Atlanta Falcons (7-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Man, the NFC is Great" Sunday,


2.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (7-4)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "No, Seriously, the NFC is amazing" Sunday,


1.) Carolina Panthers (8-3)  @  New Orleans Saints (8-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Please believe me, the NFC is on one right now" Sunday,

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.