NFC East
1.) New York Giants - 9-7 (4)
Who's In: (DE) Olivier Vernon, (DT) Damon Harrison, (CB) Janoris Jenkins
Who's Out: (WR) Reuben Randle, (DE) Robert Ayers, (CB) Prince Amukamara
I said I wouldn't do this when I did a pre-camp Power Rankings. I said I wasn't going to get fooled into picking the Giants to win the NFC East again, but then the rest of the division went all kinds of crazy with injuries and trades. You can make a case for every team, but I think the Giants are the easiest one to make - and I'm not picking them to go 12-4 or anything like I did so many times from 2010-2013. The Giants still have an offense that found a good rhythm late last year under Ben McAdoo, a beast in Odell Beckham, an exciting rookie in Sterling Sheppard, and three defensive additions that make sense, if admittedly well overpaid. The Giants don't need to improve too much, but just be a respectable #20-25 type defense, and retain their offense and load up against a weak division. Now, I could write the same sentence about any of the other three teams, but suddenly the Giants have the most secure QB situation (more on Kirk in a second), which I like overall.
2.) Washington Redskins - 7-9
Who's In: (TE) Vernon Davis, (DE) Kendall Reyes, (CB) Josh Norman, (CB) Greg Toler, (S) David Bruton
Who's Out: (QB) Robert Griffin, (RB) Alfred Morris, (DE) Jason Hatcher, (LB) Keenan Robinson, (CB) Chris Culliver, (S) Dashon Goldson
Kirk ended the season in incredible form, leading the Redskins to a complete surprise division title, and then the Redskins rewarded him with the franchise tag. Just that alone is a great sign that the Redskins have reservations on what the real Kirk Cousins is, and that it likely is not the guy that had a Aaron Rodgers-like 2nd half last season. The defense lost some key players, and while Josh Norman is a headline like addition, we've done this dance before in Washington. Also, we've done it with Carolina as well, who has often now lost defensive players who have done far worse in their new situation (Captain Munnerlyn in Minnesota, for isntance). The Redskins probably weren't 9-7 good last year, and I really don't see why they should be any better against a tougher schedule.
3.) Dallas Cowboys - 6-10
Who's In: (RB) Alfred Morris, (DT) Cedric Thornton
Who's Out: (G) Mackenzie Bernadeu, (DE) Greg Hardy
A very quiet offseason for Dallas was made far less quiet when Tony Romo hurt his back, again. At this point, there is no reason to expect that if Tony Romo does come back around midseason he can stay healthy. We just saw that last year, when after his first back injury, he played 1.5 games before hurting it again against Carolina. The Cowboys are built to sustain the injury in theory, but there has been no real change (apart from Zeke Elliott) from last year's roster that went 1-11 without Romo. The defense is still bad, and missing key parts to suspension. I'm giving them a slight chance of getting a healthy Romo for some part of the season, as if not I might have gone even worse than 6-10 if it was a season of Dak Prescott. Let's remember there is no real history of 4th round rookies getting shoved into action and doing well.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles - 4-12
Who's In: (QB) Chase Daniel, (WR) Reuben Randle, (G) Brandon Brooks, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (LB) Nigel Bradham, (CB) Leodis McKelvin, (S) Rodney McLeod
Who's Out: (QB) Sam Bradford, (QB) Mark Sanchez, (RB) Demarco Murray, (DT) Cedric Thornton, (LB) Kiko Alonso, (CB) Byron Maxwell, (CB) Eric Rowe, (S) Walther Thurmond
I don't think any team was as active in the offseason as the Eagles, who did all of the above and traded away a lot to get the pick that became Carson Wentz. A lot of what they did in the 'Who's Out' section was get rid of Chip Kelly guys, and while that may be a sound long term strategy, especially in the case of the onerous Maxwell, Alonso and Murray contracts, it does hurt the team in the short term. All of the players they brought in are either average or old, and while just clearing the air of Kelly's reign may be seen as an improvement, there are serious talent deficiencies on offense, and a rookie QB coming from North Dakota State may have a hard time compensating for them in Year 1. This year anyway is probably a write-off for Philadelphia, so real kudos on them for stealing a 1st Round pick for Bradford, making up for the one they gave away to pick Wentz.
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers - 12-4 (2)
Who's In: (TE) Jared Cook
Who's Out: (WR) James Jones, (DT) BJ Raji, (LB) Mike Neal, (CB) Casey Heyward
I had them at 11-5 before the Bridgewater injury (still easily winning the division), but I do think this bumps them up a game. I want to say, I don't actually think they are this good of a team. For instance, I don't think the 2016 Packers will be as good as the 2014 Packers were. The losses on defense could hurt them, as their drafts have been less than stellar on that side of the ball, and I want to see how Jordy Nelson does the first year back from his knee injury. While I expect Aaron Rodgers to play more like his MVP self than last year's imposter, there are reasons to think they have peaked as an offense. But the Bridgewater injury clears up the division for them. The Packers stunning 4-6 end to the season was uncomfortable to watch at times, but getting Jordy back and assuming last season's level of play from Rodgers was a fluke and personnel related gives them a great opportunity to return to one of the NFL's better teams.
2.) Detroit Lions - 7-9
Who's In: (WR) Marvin Jones, (WR) Jeremy Kerley, (G) Geoff Schwartz, (DE) Wallace Gilberry, (S) Rafael Bush, (S) Tavon Wilson
Who's Out: (WR) Calvin Johnson, (G) Manny Ramirez, (DE) Jason Jones< (LB) Stephen Tulloch, (S) Isa Abdul-Quddus
The Lions have a giant gaping hole this season at WR after Calvin Johnson's shock retirement, and while they've tried to go out and fill that void with Marvin Jones, that is a clear downgrade. What could help off-set the loss of Calvin is the continued growth of Matthew Stafford, who is still, stunningly, just 28. Stafford played really well towards the end of last season as the Lions finished 6-2 (and were a Hail Mary away from a 7-1 finish). The defense is still the strength of the team, and they did really well in replacing a lot of Ndamukong Suh's value - mainly because of Ezekiel Ansah took a giant step forward in his development, making him basically the only good player from the Top of the 2013 NFL Draft. The Lions have a weak division now to play with, and while I don't think they are better than last year, holding steady at 7-9 would be an achievement after losing a Hall of Famer.
3.) Chicago Bears - 7-9
Who's In: (T) Bobby Massie, (C) Ted Larsen, (DE) Akiem Hicks, (LB) Danny Trevathan, (LB) Jerrell Freeman
Who's Out: (RB) Matt Forte, (TE) Martellus Benneett, (T) Jermon Bushrod, (G) Matt Slauson, (LB) Shea McClellin, (S) Antrel Rolle
That is a lot of turnover for a team that in theory is building up towards something nice, but can you really do that when you have a 32- year old QB who was probably at his best last year - a best that really isn't all that good. A lot of credit was given to Adam Gase, so there is worry with him leaving for Miami and Cutler reverting back to his previous form. Of course, there are questions I have if his Gase-led form was even that good anyway. The defense is building in pieces, but I don't know if Danny Trevethan will be nearly as good outside of the Broncos scheme and personnel around him. The Bears may be slightly better this year with more health and a weak division, but I am not a believer, and sadly with Cutler still there, not a long-term believer as well.
4.) Minnesota Vikings - 6-10
Who's In: (QB) Sam Bradford, (T) Andre Smith, (G) Alex Boone, (S) Michael Griffing
Who's Out: (QB) Teddy Bridgewater, (WR) Mike Wallace, (S) Robert Blanton
I guess you can argue of Bridgewater should be in the 'Who's Out' category, but for 2016 he is out, and Sam Bradford is in. Forget the fact that trading a 1st for Bradford is already a panic move, what is more hilarious is that they are still planning on reportedly starting Shaun Hill in Week 1. OK, what the fuck? Why do the move then. Anyway, the Vikings are really ruined with this injury. I already thought the Vikings were going to regress from their 11-5 record from last year, due to injuries catching up, or them just not being that good in 2015. This just makes it worse. I can see the Vikings lucking in to some 16-13 type wins, but the margin for error is incredibly small now, and I'm not sure how that defense will play indoors. I already wasn't a fan of the Vikings this year, but this just sealed the deal.
NFC South
1.) Carolina Panthers - 11-5 (3)
Who's In: (C) Gino Gradkowski, (DT) Paul Soliai
Who's Out: (CB) Charles Tillman, (CB) Josh Nornam, (S) Roman Harper
This is a pick in the belief of Dave Gettleman, Ron Rivera, Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Kawann Short. This is a pick in the belief of a franchise that has done everything to deserve a lot of benefit of doubt given their play the last few years. The Panthers are still really good, with a lot of premium talent. Their biggest hole is at cornerback, but it was also last year before Josh Norman exploded, or the year before, or the year before. The Panthers have had tremendous turnover in the secondary because that is not, in their eyes, integral to the success of the defense - and they've been right so far. I should also add Kelvin Benjamin to the 'Who's In' area. Actually, I'm starting to wonder why I didn't pick 12-4 for them. The Panthers are really good still, and even if luck isn't as much on their side, they were so good last year 11-5 is about their floor in a way.
2.) New Orleans - 8-8
Who's In: (TE) Coby Fleener, (DT) Nick Fairley, (S) Roman Harper
Who's Out: (RB) Khiry Robinson, (WR) Marques Colston, (TE) Ben Watson, (G) Jahri Evans, (LB) David Hawthorne, (CB) Brandon Browner
The continued attrition of the Saints is startling, as their mess of a cap has forced an annual drain of their personnel. So why exactly am I predicting they get better in 2016 by a game? Because their defense just cannot be so bad again in 2016 as it was in 2015, when it allowed 40 TDs and was historically awful. You can easily argue the best QB in the NFL in 2015 was the collective QBs who played the Saints. Just pure regression to whatever awful mean they have dictates they will improve. Of course, maybe this is the year Drew Brees falls off a cliff, but predicting that is difficult. The Saints are still not a good team, and they went an equal 7-9 in 2014 with a merely terrible defense, but given their relatively easy schedule, I think they sneak back to .500.
3.) Tampa Bay - 7-9
Who's In: (G) JR Sweezy, (DE) Robert Ayers, (LB) Daryl Smith< (CB) Brent Grimes
Who's Out: (DT) Henry Melton, (LB) Bruce Carter, (CB) Sterling Moore
The upward trend continues in Tampa. A lot of the indicators last year liked them better than their ultimate 6-10 record, such as their gap in yards per play run vs allowed, and overall yardage and efficiency stats taking away turnovers. If they clean up on turnovers they could do quite a bit better than 7-9. I don't think that will happen immediately, and I am worried about the defense. Mike Smith steps in to run whatever systems of his he still has at this point, but what we saw over the years in Atlanta can't be too inspiring. Lovie Smith at least had a system, and now that is gone. The personnel upgrades are two players past their prime (Smith, Grimes), and a player who is a great candidate to perform worse with worse talent around him (Ayers). Overall, just not a fan of the defense, and thinking it will hold back their progression to Wild Card favorite another year.
4.) Atlanta 7-9
Who's In: (WR) Mohamed Sanu, (C) Alex Mack, (DE) Derrick Shelby, (DE) Courtney Upshaw, (LB) Sean Weatherspoon
Who's Out: (WR) Roddy White, (T) Jake Long, (DT) Paul Soliai, (LB) Justin Durant, (S) William Moore
I like that in the year the Falcons moved on from Roddy White (about time) and William Moore (stunned, actually), they brought back Sean Weatherspoon. The Falcons have such a quick drop-off from their best player (Jones) to the rest of the team, and I say only Jones because there is evidence now that Matt Ryan has completely peaked as an NFL QB, and his decline started last year. If that decline continues, this may be an optimistic 7-9. Let's remember, they finished last year 2-7 after a 6-1 start, including losing to some awful teams (Mettenberger-led Titans, Hasselbeck-led Colts). Of course the Falcons still have Julio Jones, and I do like their non-Weatherspoon pickups this year, but the ceiling is just too low for this team now.
NFC West
1.) Arizona Cardinals - 12-4 (1)
Who's In: (G) Evan Mathis, (DE) Chandler Jones, (S) Tyvon Branch
Who's Out: (G) Jonathan Cooper, (C) Lyle Sendlein, (DT) Cory Redding, (CB) Jerraud Powers, (S) Rashad Johnson
They may be the most balanced roster top-to-bottom in the league. There is no real weakness on this team. In years past, it would have been the OL, but that was mostly solved in the 2015 offseason, or the pass rush, which was greatly helped by the Chandler Jones trade and Robert Nkemdiche selections. The Cardinals can do everything. The only worry is around Palmer, in that he may get hurt like he did in 2014, or he may have had a 14-game nirvana period that ended in the 2015 playoffs. Not a huge believer in the latter, and too much of a fan to believe the former. They even got a nice pickup in Tyvon Branch to step in and relieve the Honey Badger early in the season if he's rusty or can't play too many snaps. This team should be really, really good.
2.) Seattle Seahawks - 11-5 (5)
Who's In: (T) Bradley Sowell, (T) J'Marcus Webb, (DE) Chris Clemons
Who's Out: (RB) Marshawn Lynch, (T) Russell Okung, (G) JR Sweezy, (DT) Brandon Mebane, (DE) Bruce Irvin
The Seahawks have been essentially an 11-5 or 12-4 team four years running, with a ceiling of 13-3 in their best year, and a floor of 10-6 in their worst. So to me they are right back in there. A few reasons why I don't think they'll be better (and let's remember they were 10-6 last year) come down to still hating their OL, not thinking Russell Wilson will continue his completely absurd play at the end of last year, and continued age and attrition to their front seven. The Seahawks are still excellent, with a manageable schedule. Their biggest worry may be continuing to drop games against the Rams like always.
3.) St. Louis Rams - 9-7 (6)
Who's In: (DE) Quinton Coples, (DT) Dominique Easley, (CB) Coty Sensabaugh
Who's Out: (TE) Jared Cook, (DE) Chris Long, (DT) Nick Fairley, (LB) James Laurinatis, (CB) Janoris Jenkins, (S) Rodney McLeod
I don't really know why I think they will sneak in a wild card. Part of it is I think 9-7 could nab a wild card (which hasn't happened in the NFC since 2007) and I still really like their defense, and with a full year of Todd Gurley, the offense may be good enough to pull a Texans 2015 type season. That should be the goal. I have no idea if Jared Goff is good (early indicators are a negative, I have to say), but they don't need an offense that can score 27 points, 20-23 will likely do the trick enough weeks to get to nine wins. Their list of offseason losses seem more drastic than they really are, as they have depth, or newcomers to replace a mostly past their prime or overrated group.
4.) San Francisco 49ers - 4-12
Who's In: (G Zane Beadles
Who's Out: (RB) Reggie Bush, (WR) Anquan Boldin, (G) Alex Boone
The 49ers were 5-11 last year, but they really should have been 3-13. They were probably on the whole the worst team in teh NFL. And truthfully, I don't think they are any better. I am not a huge fan of Chip Kelly the coach and really don't see the pieces on that offense that could play his style. Color me very skeptical of Blaine Gabbert succeeding in that offense - let's remember Mark Sanchez was no better in Kelly's offense than he was with the Jets. The 49ers defense has no real top-line talent. They are not horrible, but they will have to be great to make do with the dreck that populates that offense.
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card
(3) Panthers defeat (6) Rams 20-6
(4) Giants defeat (5) Seahawks 23-20
Divisional Round
(1) Cardinals defeat (4) Giants 31-20
(3) Panthers defeat (2) Packers 27-24
NFC Championship Game
(1) Cardinals defeat (3) Panthers 27-20
Super Bowl LI Pick
(N1) Cardinals defeat (A1) Bengals 27-24
1.) New York Giants - 9-7 (4)
Who's In: (DE) Olivier Vernon, (DT) Damon Harrison, (CB) Janoris Jenkins
Who's Out: (WR) Reuben Randle, (DE) Robert Ayers, (CB) Prince Amukamara
I said I wouldn't do this when I did a pre-camp Power Rankings. I said I wasn't going to get fooled into picking the Giants to win the NFC East again, but then the rest of the division went all kinds of crazy with injuries and trades. You can make a case for every team, but I think the Giants are the easiest one to make - and I'm not picking them to go 12-4 or anything like I did so many times from 2010-2013. The Giants still have an offense that found a good rhythm late last year under Ben McAdoo, a beast in Odell Beckham, an exciting rookie in Sterling Sheppard, and three defensive additions that make sense, if admittedly well overpaid. The Giants don't need to improve too much, but just be a respectable #20-25 type defense, and retain their offense and load up against a weak division. Now, I could write the same sentence about any of the other three teams, but suddenly the Giants have the most secure QB situation (more on Kirk in a second), which I like overall.
2.) Washington Redskins - 7-9
Who's In: (TE) Vernon Davis, (DE) Kendall Reyes, (CB) Josh Norman, (CB) Greg Toler, (S) David Bruton
Who's Out: (QB) Robert Griffin, (RB) Alfred Morris, (DE) Jason Hatcher, (LB) Keenan Robinson, (CB) Chris Culliver, (S) Dashon Goldson
Kirk ended the season in incredible form, leading the Redskins to a complete surprise division title, and then the Redskins rewarded him with the franchise tag. Just that alone is a great sign that the Redskins have reservations on what the real Kirk Cousins is, and that it likely is not the guy that had a Aaron Rodgers-like 2nd half last season. The defense lost some key players, and while Josh Norman is a headline like addition, we've done this dance before in Washington. Also, we've done it with Carolina as well, who has often now lost defensive players who have done far worse in their new situation (Captain Munnerlyn in Minnesota, for isntance). The Redskins probably weren't 9-7 good last year, and I really don't see why they should be any better against a tougher schedule.
3.) Dallas Cowboys - 6-10
Who's In: (RB) Alfred Morris, (DT) Cedric Thornton
Who's Out: (G) Mackenzie Bernadeu, (DE) Greg Hardy
A very quiet offseason for Dallas was made far less quiet when Tony Romo hurt his back, again. At this point, there is no reason to expect that if Tony Romo does come back around midseason he can stay healthy. We just saw that last year, when after his first back injury, he played 1.5 games before hurting it again against Carolina. The Cowboys are built to sustain the injury in theory, but there has been no real change (apart from Zeke Elliott) from last year's roster that went 1-11 without Romo. The defense is still bad, and missing key parts to suspension. I'm giving them a slight chance of getting a healthy Romo for some part of the season, as if not I might have gone even worse than 6-10 if it was a season of Dak Prescott. Let's remember there is no real history of 4th round rookies getting shoved into action and doing well.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles - 4-12
Who's In: (QB) Chase Daniel, (WR) Reuben Randle, (G) Brandon Brooks, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (LB) Nigel Bradham, (CB) Leodis McKelvin, (S) Rodney McLeod
Who's Out: (QB) Sam Bradford, (QB) Mark Sanchez, (RB) Demarco Murray, (DT) Cedric Thornton, (LB) Kiko Alonso, (CB) Byron Maxwell, (CB) Eric Rowe, (S) Walther Thurmond
I don't think any team was as active in the offseason as the Eagles, who did all of the above and traded away a lot to get the pick that became Carson Wentz. A lot of what they did in the 'Who's Out' section was get rid of Chip Kelly guys, and while that may be a sound long term strategy, especially in the case of the onerous Maxwell, Alonso and Murray contracts, it does hurt the team in the short term. All of the players they brought in are either average or old, and while just clearing the air of Kelly's reign may be seen as an improvement, there are serious talent deficiencies on offense, and a rookie QB coming from North Dakota State may have a hard time compensating for them in Year 1. This year anyway is probably a write-off for Philadelphia, so real kudos on them for stealing a 1st Round pick for Bradford, making up for the one they gave away to pick Wentz.
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers - 12-4 (2)
Who's In: (TE) Jared Cook
Who's Out: (WR) James Jones, (DT) BJ Raji, (LB) Mike Neal, (CB) Casey Heyward
I had them at 11-5 before the Bridgewater injury (still easily winning the division), but I do think this bumps them up a game. I want to say, I don't actually think they are this good of a team. For instance, I don't think the 2016 Packers will be as good as the 2014 Packers were. The losses on defense could hurt them, as their drafts have been less than stellar on that side of the ball, and I want to see how Jordy Nelson does the first year back from his knee injury. While I expect Aaron Rodgers to play more like his MVP self than last year's imposter, there are reasons to think they have peaked as an offense. But the Bridgewater injury clears up the division for them. The Packers stunning 4-6 end to the season was uncomfortable to watch at times, but getting Jordy back and assuming last season's level of play from Rodgers was a fluke and personnel related gives them a great opportunity to return to one of the NFL's better teams.
2.) Detroit Lions - 7-9
Who's In: (WR) Marvin Jones, (WR) Jeremy Kerley, (G) Geoff Schwartz, (DE) Wallace Gilberry, (S) Rafael Bush, (S) Tavon Wilson
Who's Out: (WR) Calvin Johnson, (G) Manny Ramirez, (DE) Jason Jones< (LB) Stephen Tulloch, (S) Isa Abdul-Quddus
The Lions have a giant gaping hole this season at WR after Calvin Johnson's shock retirement, and while they've tried to go out and fill that void with Marvin Jones, that is a clear downgrade. What could help off-set the loss of Calvin is the continued growth of Matthew Stafford, who is still, stunningly, just 28. Stafford played really well towards the end of last season as the Lions finished 6-2 (and were a Hail Mary away from a 7-1 finish). The defense is still the strength of the team, and they did really well in replacing a lot of Ndamukong Suh's value - mainly because of Ezekiel Ansah took a giant step forward in his development, making him basically the only good player from the Top of the 2013 NFL Draft. The Lions have a weak division now to play with, and while I don't think they are better than last year, holding steady at 7-9 would be an achievement after losing a Hall of Famer.
3.) Chicago Bears - 7-9
Who's In: (T) Bobby Massie, (C) Ted Larsen, (DE) Akiem Hicks, (LB) Danny Trevathan, (LB) Jerrell Freeman
Who's Out: (RB) Matt Forte, (TE) Martellus Benneett, (T) Jermon Bushrod, (G) Matt Slauson, (LB) Shea McClellin, (S) Antrel Rolle
That is a lot of turnover for a team that in theory is building up towards something nice, but can you really do that when you have a 32- year old QB who was probably at his best last year - a best that really isn't all that good. A lot of credit was given to Adam Gase, so there is worry with him leaving for Miami and Cutler reverting back to his previous form. Of course, there are questions I have if his Gase-led form was even that good anyway. The defense is building in pieces, but I don't know if Danny Trevethan will be nearly as good outside of the Broncos scheme and personnel around him. The Bears may be slightly better this year with more health and a weak division, but I am not a believer, and sadly with Cutler still there, not a long-term believer as well.
4.) Minnesota Vikings - 6-10
Who's In: (QB) Sam Bradford, (T) Andre Smith, (G) Alex Boone, (S) Michael Griffing
Who's Out: (QB) Teddy Bridgewater, (WR) Mike Wallace, (S) Robert Blanton
I guess you can argue of Bridgewater should be in the 'Who's Out' category, but for 2016 he is out, and Sam Bradford is in. Forget the fact that trading a 1st for Bradford is already a panic move, what is more hilarious is that they are still planning on reportedly starting Shaun Hill in Week 1. OK, what the fuck? Why do the move then. Anyway, the Vikings are really ruined with this injury. I already thought the Vikings were going to regress from their 11-5 record from last year, due to injuries catching up, or them just not being that good in 2015. This just makes it worse. I can see the Vikings lucking in to some 16-13 type wins, but the margin for error is incredibly small now, and I'm not sure how that defense will play indoors. I already wasn't a fan of the Vikings this year, but this just sealed the deal.
NFC South
1.) Carolina Panthers - 11-5 (3)
Who's In: (C) Gino Gradkowski, (DT) Paul Soliai
Who's Out: (CB) Charles Tillman, (CB) Josh Nornam, (S) Roman Harper
This is a pick in the belief of Dave Gettleman, Ron Rivera, Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Kawann Short. This is a pick in the belief of a franchise that has done everything to deserve a lot of benefit of doubt given their play the last few years. The Panthers are still really good, with a lot of premium talent. Their biggest hole is at cornerback, but it was also last year before Josh Norman exploded, or the year before, or the year before. The Panthers have had tremendous turnover in the secondary because that is not, in their eyes, integral to the success of the defense - and they've been right so far. I should also add Kelvin Benjamin to the 'Who's In' area. Actually, I'm starting to wonder why I didn't pick 12-4 for them. The Panthers are really good still, and even if luck isn't as much on their side, they were so good last year 11-5 is about their floor in a way.
2.) New Orleans - 8-8
Who's In: (TE) Coby Fleener, (DT) Nick Fairley, (S) Roman Harper
Who's Out: (RB) Khiry Robinson, (WR) Marques Colston, (TE) Ben Watson, (G) Jahri Evans, (LB) David Hawthorne, (CB) Brandon Browner
The continued attrition of the Saints is startling, as their mess of a cap has forced an annual drain of their personnel. So why exactly am I predicting they get better in 2016 by a game? Because their defense just cannot be so bad again in 2016 as it was in 2015, when it allowed 40 TDs and was historically awful. You can easily argue the best QB in the NFL in 2015 was the collective QBs who played the Saints. Just pure regression to whatever awful mean they have dictates they will improve. Of course, maybe this is the year Drew Brees falls off a cliff, but predicting that is difficult. The Saints are still not a good team, and they went an equal 7-9 in 2014 with a merely terrible defense, but given their relatively easy schedule, I think they sneak back to .500.
3.) Tampa Bay - 7-9
Who's In: (G) JR Sweezy, (DE) Robert Ayers, (LB) Daryl Smith< (CB) Brent Grimes
Who's Out: (DT) Henry Melton, (LB) Bruce Carter, (CB) Sterling Moore
The upward trend continues in Tampa. A lot of the indicators last year liked them better than their ultimate 6-10 record, such as their gap in yards per play run vs allowed, and overall yardage and efficiency stats taking away turnovers. If they clean up on turnovers they could do quite a bit better than 7-9. I don't think that will happen immediately, and I am worried about the defense. Mike Smith steps in to run whatever systems of his he still has at this point, but what we saw over the years in Atlanta can't be too inspiring. Lovie Smith at least had a system, and now that is gone. The personnel upgrades are two players past their prime (Smith, Grimes), and a player who is a great candidate to perform worse with worse talent around him (Ayers). Overall, just not a fan of the defense, and thinking it will hold back their progression to Wild Card favorite another year.
4.) Atlanta 7-9
Who's In: (WR) Mohamed Sanu, (C) Alex Mack, (DE) Derrick Shelby, (DE) Courtney Upshaw, (LB) Sean Weatherspoon
Who's Out: (WR) Roddy White, (T) Jake Long, (DT) Paul Soliai, (LB) Justin Durant, (S) William Moore
I like that in the year the Falcons moved on from Roddy White (about time) and William Moore (stunned, actually), they brought back Sean Weatherspoon. The Falcons have such a quick drop-off from their best player (Jones) to the rest of the team, and I say only Jones because there is evidence now that Matt Ryan has completely peaked as an NFL QB, and his decline started last year. If that decline continues, this may be an optimistic 7-9. Let's remember, they finished last year 2-7 after a 6-1 start, including losing to some awful teams (Mettenberger-led Titans, Hasselbeck-led Colts). Of course the Falcons still have Julio Jones, and I do like their non-Weatherspoon pickups this year, but the ceiling is just too low for this team now.
NFC West
1.) Arizona Cardinals - 12-4 (1)
Who's In: (G) Evan Mathis, (DE) Chandler Jones, (S) Tyvon Branch
Who's Out: (G) Jonathan Cooper, (C) Lyle Sendlein, (DT) Cory Redding, (CB) Jerraud Powers, (S) Rashad Johnson
They may be the most balanced roster top-to-bottom in the league. There is no real weakness on this team. In years past, it would have been the OL, but that was mostly solved in the 2015 offseason, or the pass rush, which was greatly helped by the Chandler Jones trade and Robert Nkemdiche selections. The Cardinals can do everything. The only worry is around Palmer, in that he may get hurt like he did in 2014, or he may have had a 14-game nirvana period that ended in the 2015 playoffs. Not a huge believer in the latter, and too much of a fan to believe the former. They even got a nice pickup in Tyvon Branch to step in and relieve the Honey Badger early in the season if he's rusty or can't play too many snaps. This team should be really, really good.
2.) Seattle Seahawks - 11-5 (5)
Who's In: (T) Bradley Sowell, (T) J'Marcus Webb, (DE) Chris Clemons
Who's Out: (RB) Marshawn Lynch, (T) Russell Okung, (G) JR Sweezy, (DT) Brandon Mebane, (DE) Bruce Irvin
The Seahawks have been essentially an 11-5 or 12-4 team four years running, with a ceiling of 13-3 in their best year, and a floor of 10-6 in their worst. So to me they are right back in there. A few reasons why I don't think they'll be better (and let's remember they were 10-6 last year) come down to still hating their OL, not thinking Russell Wilson will continue his completely absurd play at the end of last year, and continued age and attrition to their front seven. The Seahawks are still excellent, with a manageable schedule. Their biggest worry may be continuing to drop games against the Rams like always.
3.) St. Louis Rams - 9-7 (6)
Who's In: (DE) Quinton Coples, (DT) Dominique Easley, (CB) Coty Sensabaugh
Who's Out: (TE) Jared Cook, (DE) Chris Long, (DT) Nick Fairley, (LB) James Laurinatis, (CB) Janoris Jenkins, (S) Rodney McLeod
I don't really know why I think they will sneak in a wild card. Part of it is I think 9-7 could nab a wild card (which hasn't happened in the NFC since 2007) and I still really like their defense, and with a full year of Todd Gurley, the offense may be good enough to pull a Texans 2015 type season. That should be the goal. I have no idea if Jared Goff is good (early indicators are a negative, I have to say), but they don't need an offense that can score 27 points, 20-23 will likely do the trick enough weeks to get to nine wins. Their list of offseason losses seem more drastic than they really are, as they have depth, or newcomers to replace a mostly past their prime or overrated group.
4.) San Francisco 49ers - 4-12
Who's In: (G Zane Beadles
Who's Out: (RB) Reggie Bush, (WR) Anquan Boldin, (G) Alex Boone
The 49ers were 5-11 last year, but they really should have been 3-13. They were probably on the whole the worst team in teh NFL. And truthfully, I don't think they are any better. I am not a huge fan of Chip Kelly the coach and really don't see the pieces on that offense that could play his style. Color me very skeptical of Blaine Gabbert succeeding in that offense - let's remember Mark Sanchez was no better in Kelly's offense than he was with the Jets. The 49ers defense has no real top-line talent. They are not horrible, but they will have to be great to make do with the dreck that populates that offense.
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card
(3) Panthers defeat (6) Rams 20-6
(4) Giants defeat (5) Seahawks 23-20
Divisional Round
(1) Cardinals defeat (4) Giants 31-20
(3) Panthers defeat (2) Packers 27-24
NFC Championship Game
(1) Cardinals defeat (3) Panthers 27-20
Super Bowl LI Pick
(N1) Cardinals defeat (A1) Bengals 27-24
