Tuesday, November 3, 2015

NFL 2015: Week 9 Power Rankings & the Rest

Checking In on Last Week's Picks

Dolphins (+8.5)  over  PATRIOTS  (WRONG  =  0-1)
Lions (+3.5)  over  CHIEFS  (WRONG  =  0-2)
TEXANS (-4)  over  Titans  (CORRECT  =  1-2)
BEARS (+1)  over  Vikings  (WRONG  =  1-3)
FALCONS (-7)  over  Buccaneers  (WRONG  =  1-4)
Bengals (PK)  over  STEELERS  (CORRECT  =  2-4)
Cardinals (-5.5)  over  BROWNS  (CORRECT  =  3-4)
Giants (+3)  over  SAINTS  (PUSH  =  3-4-1)
RAMS (-8)  over  49ers  (CORRECT  =  4-4-1)
RAVENS (-3.5)  over  Chargers  (WRONG  =  4-5-1)
RAIDERS (+3)  over  Jets  (CORRECT  =  5-5-1)
Seahawks (-5)  over  COWBOYS  (WRONG  =  5-6-1)
BRONCOS (+3)  over  Packers  (CORRECT  =  6-6-1)
Colts (+7)  over  PANTHERS  (CORRECT  =  7-6-1)


Power Rankings

The "Sometimes the worst record is the worst team" Duo

32.) Detroit Lions  (1-7  =  149-245)
31.) Tennessee Titans  (1-6  =  125-159)

There are two one-loss teams in teh NFL right now, and they both stink. The Lions just lost 45-10 to a mediocre team. The Titans have scored 13 points in the last two games, and just fired their coach. It's odd to see Detroit this bad again, but somewhat comforting, taking me back to the good old days.


The "Once Every Three Weeks They'll Play Well" Quatro

30.) Houston Texans  (3-5  =  174-205)
29.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-6  =  109-207)
28.) Cleveland Browns  (2-6  =  167-216)
27.) Chicago Bears  (2-5  =  140-202)

Even the bad teams in the NFL can be competitive every now and then; and these four, while overall bad, have the potential to be competitive. The Texans defense against non-great offenses can keep them in games - good enough that they'll dominate bad teams. The 49ers have an offense that won't be able to gain 200 yards against a good defense, but against one without a pass rush may be able to do something (though with Gabbert replacing Kaepernick even that may not be true anymore). The Browns have had good halves, and they've played a few good games, but they're still relying on the McCown / Gabriel / Hartline / Barnidge offense to score 25 points. Finally, the Bears are well coached, but are so limited on offense with personnel.


The "Twice Every Five Weeks They'll Play Well" Quatro

26.) Miami Dolphins  (3-4  =  154-173)
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (2-5  =  147-207)
24.) San Diego Chargers  (2-6  =  191-227)
23.) Dallas Cowboys  (2-5  =  133-171)

 These teams are roughly 10% better than the one's in the previous group. The Dolphins rejuvenation with the new QB clearly had a 2-week effectiveness date. The Jaguars have a surprisingly competent offense - which is strange given Gus Bradley's pedigree was as a defensive coach. The Chargers and Cowboys are just snake-bit with injuries this year. The Cowboys could easily be 5-2 if Romo stayed healthy, but he's not. The Chargers injuries have now reduced to comical and sad; the latest being Keenan Allen's ruptured kidney. Rivers and Romo are tied together in many ways, and their respective situations in 2015 are no different.


The "Are We Sure They are Out of It?" Trio

22.) Kansas City Chiefs  (3-5  =  195-182)
21.) Washington Redskins  (3-4  =  148-168)
20.) Baltimore Ravens  (2-6  =  190-214)

The NFL is extremely top-heavy this year, or more succinctly, extremely filled with mediocrity. The Chiefs are only 1.5 games back of the wild card right now, with a win against 4-4 Pittsburgh, and two games left against Oakland. They have a realistic chance at nabbing a Wild Card. The Ravens are probably out of it, but could they go 6-2 and finish 8-8? Maybe. We haven't had an 8-8 Wild Card team since 2006 in the NFC, but this year's AFC is as good of a bet as any. The Redskins are lingering in that other mess of a division, have a competent defense and an offense that is good any time they are not throwing picks and fumbling. All three likely won't make the playoffs, may not even get close, but they may be better than some playoff teams come December.


The "Highest of High Variance Teams" Trio

19.) Philadelphia Eagles  (3-4  =  160-137)
18.) Buffalo Bills  (3-4  =  176-173)
17.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (3-4  =  163-199)

All three teams are 3-4. All three teams could easily be 4-3 (yes, the Buccaneers, who if not for a blown 24-0 lead would be 4-3). All three can be competitive any week, and could play decently well on the road or at home. Of course, they also could lose any week, sometimes badly, like the Bills latest mess in London, or the Eagles umpteen turnovers, or the Buccaneers, you know, blowing a 24-0 lead.


The "Living Off a Reputation" Trio

16.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (4-4  =  168-147)
15.) Indianapolis Colts  (3-5  =  173-203)
14.) Seattle Seahawks  (4-4  =  167-140)

 The Steelers get Roethlisberger back, so they're in decent shape, but now lose Le'Veon Bell. The Colts still have Luck, who showed in the 4th quarter that there is still a heart-beat for him in 2015. The Seahawks have a defense that will demolish any marginal offense they face. All three made the playoffs last year, have high expectations this year, and have, relatively, disappointed. Then again, all are lucky to have as many wins as they do - for the Steelers to sneak out a 2-2 record without Ben, to the Colts winning two games with Hasselbeck, to the Seahawks and 'The Bat'. They all could make a run; or they all could fall worse. I guess that's why they're in the middle for me.


The "Bad, Good Teams" Trio

13.) Minnesota Vikings  (5-2  =  147-122)
12.) New York Giants  (4-4  =  215-208)
11.) New York Jets  (4-3  =  172-139)

If the playoffs start today, all three teams are in the playoffs. If we project out to December, it is easy to imagine all three not in the playoffs. But then again, they've banked the wins they've banked. The Giants have wins against Dallas and Washington. The Jets have a win against Miami. The Vikings have five wins to their name (without playing all that well for about a month now). I really don't know if any of these teams are that good; and they're all coming off iffy performances, but they do have strengths. The Vikings have a defense that will play well in all games. The Giants have an offense that can also play well in all games (and maybe better if they ever get Victor Cruz back). Finally, teh Jets, despite what happened last weekend, have a defense. They have the ability to win 10 games, but even then I'll be more than happy to bet against all three in Round 1.


The "I Guess Just Good, Good Teams" Duo

10.) Oakland Raiders  (4-3  =  178-173)
9.) St. Louis Rams  (4-3  =  135-125)

The Raiders haven't been in the playoffs since 2002; they haven't been .500 since 2011. The Rams haven't been either since 2006. Both teams have been so bad and so irrelevant late in seasons, it is really hard to remember them being good; but alas, they're both in good position. The Raiders and Rams both play really well, and consistently well, on one side of the ball. For years, every Raider TD seemed like a fluke. No longer. The Rams defense has been good for a while now, but it is more consistent and effective than ever.


The "NFC South May Be Better than we Think" Duo

8.) New Orleans Saints  (4-4  =  213-234)
7.) Atlanta Falcons  (6-2  =  213-173)

Remember when the Seahawks won the NFC West at 7-9 in 2010. Two years later, the NFC West was the best division in football. The NFC South had a division winner at 7-8-1 last year, and just a year later it may be one of the best divisions in football. The Saints still have an awful defnse, but Brees really seemed to make the most of that week off in Week 3. The Falcons haven't been good for a while, but so much of their two losses comes down simply to turnovers. Maybe that will be just a thing with them al year, but if they cut down on the bad turnovers, they may finish 12-4. A bad 12-4, but 12-4 nonetheless.


The "NFL is Really Hoping We Don't Make the Super Bowl" Trio

6.) Carolina Panthers  (7-0  =  191-136)
5.) Arizona Cardinals  (6-2  =  263-153)
4.) Cincinnati Bengals  (7-0  =  198-132)

There are six teams in the NFL that are just better than all the others. Three are marquee teams with generational QBs. And then there is these three. The Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals are all really good. They all have quality players, and great coaching staffs that make the most out of them. I really like watching all three of these teams play. I would really enjoy a Super Bowl, especially Super Bowl God Damn 50, featuring the Bengals against the Panthers or Cardinals. Plus, none of them have ever won a Super Bowl, so there's that too.


The "I Have Some Thoughts About That Game" Duo

3.) Green Bay Packers  (6-1  =  174-130)
2.) Denver Broncos  (7-0  =  168-112)
 
Obviously, if that Denver team shows up, they're the best team in the NFL. The defense has the personnel to be excellent at every level, and a coaching staff that plays up to that talent (in a way that Jack Del Rio's defenses never really did). The Broncos offense obviously got a better Manning, but also a far better performance from their o-line, something that actually happened a lot in the Cleveland game, but was masked with some awful decision making by Manning. As for Green Bay, what the hell? Rodgers looked lost. The defense looked like they've never watched Demaryius Thomas before. That game went about as bad as it could have gone. In a way it is reassuring to know you've already played as bad as you can.
 

The "It's Going to Happen, Isn't It?" Uno

1.) New England Patriots  (7-0  =  249-133)

It is, isn't it?


Project the Playoff Field

AFC

1.) New England Patriots  =  14-2
2.) Denver Broncos  =  13-3
3.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  13-3
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-8
5.) New York Jets  =  10-6
6.) Oakland Raiders  =  9-7


NFC

1.) Carolina Panthers  =  13-3
2.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3
3.) Arizona Cardinals  =  12-4
4.) New York Giants  =  9-7
5.) Atlanta Falcons  =  11-5
6.) St. Louis Rams  =  10-6



Looking Forward to Next Week's Games

Byes: Detroit Lions (1-7); Kansas City Chiefs (3-5); Arizona Cardinals (6-2); Seattle Seahawks (4-4); Baltimore Ravens (2-6); Houston Texans (3-5)


13.) Chicago Bears (2-6)  @  San Diego Chargers (2-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "That's What ESPN Gets for thinking people still care about the Rivers vs. Cutler Rivalry" Monday, as we get a MNF game that looked average before the season started when people expected the Chargers to be good. Instead, they stink, and they get a MNF game for the second time in four weeks. The Cutler vs. Rivers rivalry was only really a thing in 2008. That's seven years ago. Aaron Rodgers had his first year as a starter that season. Andrew Luck was like 8 years old then.


12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)  @  New York Jets (4-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Atlanta Falcons (6-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-5)  (4:05 - FOX)
10.) Washington Redskins (3-4)  @  New England Patriots (7-0)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Cleveland Browns (2-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)  (TNF - NFLN)
8.) Tennessee Titans (1-6)  @  New Orleans Saints (4-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad Team vs. Good Team" Sunday and Thursday, as with six teams on a bye, and so many bad teams right now, we get a lot of games where a bad team is playing a good one. Even worse, in only one of those cases is the bad team at home (49ers). I wonder what the odds of a five-way parlay for this are? Then again, this being the NFL, at least one will win, maybe two.


7.) Miami Dolphins (3-4)  @  Buffalo Bills (3-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (2-5)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Who Want's Second/Third Place" Sunday, as the Easts get center stage with their lesser teams. The Dolphins and Bills played quite recently, at a very different time. Since teh Dolphins fired their coach, became good and then returned to sucking. The Bills have just gotten worse. The Eagles and Cowboys matchup is interesting, if not for the appearance of Matt Cassel to ruin all Cowboys games. Couldn't they flex this shit?


5.) New York Giants (4-4)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "And here's the Week 9 game I inexplicably like" Sunday, as the Giants try to not give up 52 points this time, and the Buccaneers continue trying to give a great Lovie-era Bears impression. Honestly, the Bucs force turnovers, play better defense than they should, but can also get torched. The Giants actually do a lot of those things as well. With the Eagles playing Dallas, meaning one of them has to lose, and the Redskins entering a slaughterhouse in Foxboro, a win here for the Giants would be huge.


4.) Denver Broncos (7-0)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-5)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "The Revenge of the Manning" Sunday, as we get the 4th iteration of the Manning vs. the Colts series. If we take away the two Star Wars movies that didn't happen, and go in chronological order, the series has matched up nicely. 'A New Hope' was Luck winning in 2013. 'The Empire Strikes Back' with the Broncos winning in Week 1 last year. 'The Return of the Jedi' with the upstart Colts seemingly kiling Manning in the Divisional Playoffs last year. And now 'The Revenge of the Sith' with a Palpatine-ey Manning coming back to strike the Jedi's down.


3.) Oakland Raiders (4-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
2.) St. Louis Rams (4-3)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Is it 1976 again?" Sunday, as we get two games that look better and have more storyline's than anyone could have expected, all with four historical teams that were really good a long time ago. The Raiders get a chance to get back-to-back wins over likely AFC Wild Card competitors. The Rams get a chance to beat an NFC Wild Card competitor. A lot to grab with second-level teams.


1.) Green Bay Packers (6-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (7-0)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "The Main Event" Sunday, as we get a matchup of, by record, the best two teams in the NFC. The Panthers get a rare opportunity to go a full two games up on the Conference after eight games - something that almost assures them the #1 seed. The last team to have that and not get the #1 seed was the 2006 Colts, who were 8-0, ahead of four teams at 6-2, and they were ultimately passed by both San Diego (14-2) and Baltimore (13-3). Still, after the Packers disaster last weekend, this is a tough matchup for them, but an opportunity to prove the NFC is still theirs.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.