I did this last year at midseason. This time I waited. Here it comes, me picking each remaining game in advance for the final 5-weeks of the season. I love this time of year, where every team has now played the same amount of games, with the bye weeks over and done with. First I'll give my final season standings that I am projecting, then a division-by-division breakdown, and then a quick playoff preview.
I give my unending kudos to the ESPN Playoff Machine to helping me work out the tiebreakers.
Quick notes on Tiebreakers:
- NE gets the #1 seed and IND gets the #3 seed based on head-to-head wins over DEN and BAL, respectively
- SF gets the #6 seed over SEA and PHI, first because they win a division tiebreaker against SEA with a better record against common opponents, and PHI due to a head to head victory
- ARZ gets the #1 seed over GB due to record in Conference Games (to come)
So, let's break this bad boy down.
AFC East
1.) New England Patriots - 13-3 (1):This team is on a ridiculous roll right now, but they're about to play a team who is on a similar roll, especially at home. I don't think they'll win in Green Bay, but will navigate a tough schedule down-the-stretch to get that #1 seed that they've soundly deserved. The scariest game after that might actually be the last one, depending on weather conditions that day. Weird little fact that I'm sure in no way is the NFL showing Patriots favoritism: they haven't had a Road game in Week 17 since 2009.
2.) Miami Dolphins - 10-6 (6): I think the Dolphins sneak out with the #6 seed mainly because their main competitors get knocked off of the 10-win pace. It is hard to imagine a scenario where none of the other 7-4 teams currently gets to 10 wins, but I think it happens. If they can steal that New England game, they may even have a shot at the division, but that would also need the Pats to really slip up.
3.) Buffalo Bills - 8-8: The Bills may be one of the league's best 8-8 teams. They have a tough schedule left, and sure, they will likely beat Oakland, but I can't pick all chalk in these games. Their earlier losses really kill them. I do think they'll give the Packers a hell of a fight with that D-Line of theirs. They have a nice team to build around... apart from QB. Not sure what the plan is there.
4.) New York Jets - 3-13: Let's just move on to better things.
AFC North
1.) Baltimore Ravens - 11-5 (4): Huge win last night by the Ravens. They can pretty much assure a Wild-Card berth by just splitting the next two games. I think they do that, but end up slightly better with the division. If I'm any team in the AFC, especially New England given recent history, I'm really afraid of this Ravens team the way their offense is currently playing.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals - 10-5-1 (5): Despite having three losses of at least 20 points, the Bengals just keep winning games. I think they'll win their next two easy one's as well. Somehow, this team could enter that MNF game against Denver at 10-3-1. I don't think they will, getting swept by their cross-state rivals for the first time ever. I'll give them a sweep over Pittsburgh, though to counter-balance that.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7: It was really hard to pick their games, Lord knows I've been bad at picking the Steelers games all year long. I don't like this team on the road against teams that are even mediocre (see their MNF win against Tennessee). I don't think they can go to Cincinnati or Atlanta and win. It does come down to that Week 16 game. With my overall picks, the winner of that game is a playoff team, and I think Cincinnati is just better.
4.) Cleveland Browns - 8-8: It was tough to pick their games, but I can fairly say that apart from the TNF win in Cincinnati, the Browns haven't beaten a team better than them. Well, now they play a few teams that are better, or comparable but on the road. They could win a couple of these road games, but the Browns still have issues at QB which are not going away.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis Colts - 11-5 (3): This may represent a slight disappointment for the Colts, a third straight 11-5 finish, but I don't see it that way. The Colts have gotten better each year. They still have a ton of areas where they can improve, but with Luck on board, you don't have to improve everywhere. I do think the Cowboys ground their way to a win, but the Colts have been able to beat all teams worse than them, and I think that continues.
2.) Houston Texans - 6-10: I think the shit is about to hit the fan for the Texans. Picking them to lose home to Tennessee and at Jacksonville is probably a little much, but I generally don't like picking too many teams to go 2-14 or 3-13. Those guys have to win some games. It doesn't matter really, since I can't see them winning in Indy or beating the Ravens, which pretty much ends their Wild Card hopes anyway.
3.) Tennessee Titans - 4-12: Who Cares?
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars - 3-13: Who Cares^2?
AFC West
1.) Denver Broncos - 13-3 (2): Yes, they have three more road games and haven't looked all that good on the road, but I think the Broncos have gotten past their mid-season malaise. I do think they'll win this Sunday in Kansas City, and San Diego and Cincinnati have already shown weakness at home (for instance, the Bengals have lost roughly their past 30 primetime games). They might drop a game, but it likely won't matter as they have most tiebreakers against all non-Patriots teams.
2.) San Diego Chargers - 9-7: The AFC West has been good all year, but the schedule is just a little too tough. Would I be surprised if the Chargers split the Patriots/Broncos home back-to-back? No, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't pick them either. The o-line is just too bad to let that offense operate at the level it needs to consistently.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs - 9-7: For a team that was 7-3 heading into a TNF game against winless Oakland, this is a real disappointing end I am predicting. Just a note, if they were to have won their Week 17 home game against the Chargers, they would make the playoffs as the #6 seed, but I think Rivers thrives in that super-spoiler role.
4.) Oakland Raiders - 2-14: Hey, I think they'll win another game. Could this be an RGIII landing spot?
NFC East
1.) Dallas Cowboys - 11-5 (3): I think Sanchez ruins the Eagles hopes, but this is also about the Cowboys taking control. If they beat the Bears they might even be able to sneak out a #1 seed (probably not due to the NFC losses). The Cowboys are a good team, they've proven that time and time again this season when Romo is healthy and playing. The Romo Cowboys are 8-2 this season, not too shabby.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6: As mentioned, I think Sanchez ruins it for them. I am seriously reconsidering my pick of them losing to the Redskins if McCoy is the starter, but I'll still with it for now. That is a reasonably touch schedule, especially ending with two road divisional games, a really tough way to end the season.
3.) New York Giants - 6-10: A lost season for the Giants might get slightly better with my predicted three-game win streak. Now, beating three of the worst teams in the NFL is not that impressive, but since the Giants are among the worst teams, it isn't that bad either. I really do think this is it for Tom Coughlin; the main question being whether he gets fired or 'retires'.
4.) Washington Redskins - 5-11: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers - 12-4 (2): Wouldn't that be something, if a road loss to the Bills costs them the #1 seed. The Bills are a terrible matchup for the Packers on paper, with a flexible fast offense coupled with the NFL's best d-line against a soft interior line for the Packers. Still, the Packers are money at home, and the only other road game is in Tampa. That Week 17 game against Detroit looms large, I think, as I do expect the Lions to get back on track.
2.) Detroit Lions - 11-5 (5): Speaking of which, the Lions schedule gets a lot easier than playing the two current #1 seeds back-to-back on the road. Their offense woes are startling, given how voluminous they were in 2011-2013, but I do expect that to correct itself somewhat the next three weeks at home. The season really comes down to those two road division games. Win both and they win the division. Lose both and they miss the playoffs (the Seahawks become the #6 seed in that case).
3.) Chicago Bears - 7-9: I was totally surprised to see that the Bears were 5-6. I guess that is what happens when you play the NFC South. They would be leading that division, by the way. The schedule does have a lot of home games left, but also games against current playoff teams. I do think they win two of those three home games in what expects to be cold, winter weather against dome teams.
4.) Minnesota Vikings - 5-11: Like the Texans, I think the shit hits the fan here as well. I just don't think they're as good as those last three teams, and I think the lose close games at home to the Panthers and Jets. Some team has lose those games.
NFC South
1.) New Orleans Saints - 7-9 (4): I Don't Even Want
2.) Carolina Panthers - 6-9-1: To Think About
3.) Atlanta Falcons - 6-10: This Sorry Ass
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2-14: Division At All
NFC West
I give my unending kudos to the ESPN Playoff Machine to helping me work out the tiebreakers.
Quick notes on Tiebreakers:
- NE gets the #1 seed and IND gets the #3 seed based on head-to-head wins over DEN and BAL, respectively
- SF gets the #6 seed over SEA and PHI, first because they win a division tiebreaker against SEA with a better record against common opponents, and PHI due to a head to head victory
- ARZ gets the #1 seed over GB due to record in Conference Games (to come)
So, let's break this bad boy down.
AFC East
1.) New England Patriots - 13-3 (1):This team is on a ridiculous roll right now, but they're about to play a team who is on a similar roll, especially at home. I don't think they'll win in Green Bay, but will navigate a tough schedule down-the-stretch to get that #1 seed that they've soundly deserved. The scariest game after that might actually be the last one, depending on weather conditions that day. Weird little fact that I'm sure in no way is the NFL showing Patriots favoritism: they haven't had a Road game in Week 17 since 2009.
2.) Miami Dolphins - 10-6 (6): I think the Dolphins sneak out with the #6 seed mainly because their main competitors get knocked off of the 10-win pace. It is hard to imagine a scenario where none of the other 7-4 teams currently gets to 10 wins, but I think it happens. If they can steal that New England game, they may even have a shot at the division, but that would also need the Pats to really slip up.
3.) Buffalo Bills - 8-8: The Bills may be one of the league's best 8-8 teams. They have a tough schedule left, and sure, they will likely beat Oakland, but I can't pick all chalk in these games. Their earlier losses really kill them. I do think they'll give the Packers a hell of a fight with that D-Line of theirs. They have a nice team to build around... apart from QB. Not sure what the plan is there.
4.) New York Jets - 3-13: Let's just move on to better things.
AFC North
1.) Baltimore Ravens - 11-5 (4): Huge win last night by the Ravens. They can pretty much assure a Wild-Card berth by just splitting the next two games. I think they do that, but end up slightly better with the division. If I'm any team in the AFC, especially New England given recent history, I'm really afraid of this Ravens team the way their offense is currently playing.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals - 10-5-1 (5): Despite having three losses of at least 20 points, the Bengals just keep winning games. I think they'll win their next two easy one's as well. Somehow, this team could enter that MNF game against Denver at 10-3-1. I don't think they will, getting swept by their cross-state rivals for the first time ever. I'll give them a sweep over Pittsburgh, though to counter-balance that.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7: It was really hard to pick their games, Lord knows I've been bad at picking the Steelers games all year long. I don't like this team on the road against teams that are even mediocre (see their MNF win against Tennessee). I don't think they can go to Cincinnati or Atlanta and win. It does come down to that Week 16 game. With my overall picks, the winner of that game is a playoff team, and I think Cincinnati is just better.
4.) Cleveland Browns - 8-8: It was tough to pick their games, but I can fairly say that apart from the TNF win in Cincinnati, the Browns haven't beaten a team better than them. Well, now they play a few teams that are better, or comparable but on the road. They could win a couple of these road games, but the Browns still have issues at QB which are not going away.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis Colts - 11-5 (3): This may represent a slight disappointment for the Colts, a third straight 11-5 finish, but I don't see it that way. The Colts have gotten better each year. They still have a ton of areas where they can improve, but with Luck on board, you don't have to improve everywhere. I do think the Cowboys ground their way to a win, but the Colts have been able to beat all teams worse than them, and I think that continues.
2.) Houston Texans - 6-10: I think the shit is about to hit the fan for the Texans. Picking them to lose home to Tennessee and at Jacksonville is probably a little much, but I generally don't like picking too many teams to go 2-14 or 3-13. Those guys have to win some games. It doesn't matter really, since I can't see them winning in Indy or beating the Ravens, which pretty much ends their Wild Card hopes anyway.
3.) Tennessee Titans - 4-12: Who Cares?
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars - 3-13: Who Cares^2?
AFC West
1.) Denver Broncos - 13-3 (2): Yes, they have three more road games and haven't looked all that good on the road, but I think the Broncos have gotten past their mid-season malaise. I do think they'll win this Sunday in Kansas City, and San Diego and Cincinnati have already shown weakness at home (for instance, the Bengals have lost roughly their past 30 primetime games). They might drop a game, but it likely won't matter as they have most tiebreakers against all non-Patriots teams.
2.) San Diego Chargers - 9-7: The AFC West has been good all year, but the schedule is just a little too tough. Would I be surprised if the Chargers split the Patriots/Broncos home back-to-back? No, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't pick them either. The o-line is just too bad to let that offense operate at the level it needs to consistently.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs - 9-7: For a team that was 7-3 heading into a TNF game against winless Oakland, this is a real disappointing end I am predicting. Just a note, if they were to have won their Week 17 home game against the Chargers, they would make the playoffs as the #6 seed, but I think Rivers thrives in that super-spoiler role.
4.) Oakland Raiders - 2-14: Hey, I think they'll win another game. Could this be an RGIII landing spot?
NFC East
1.) Dallas Cowboys - 11-5 (3): I think Sanchez ruins the Eagles hopes, but this is also about the Cowboys taking control. If they beat the Bears they might even be able to sneak out a #1 seed (probably not due to the NFC losses). The Cowboys are a good team, they've proven that time and time again this season when Romo is healthy and playing. The Romo Cowboys are 8-2 this season, not too shabby.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6: As mentioned, I think Sanchez ruins it for them. I am seriously reconsidering my pick of them losing to the Redskins if McCoy is the starter, but I'll still with it for now. That is a reasonably touch schedule, especially ending with two road divisional games, a really tough way to end the season.
3.) New York Giants - 6-10: A lost season for the Giants might get slightly better with my predicted three-game win streak. Now, beating three of the worst teams in the NFL is not that impressive, but since the Giants are among the worst teams, it isn't that bad either. I really do think this is it for Tom Coughlin; the main question being whether he gets fired or 'retires'.
4.) Washington Redskins - 5-11: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers - 12-4 (2): Wouldn't that be something, if a road loss to the Bills costs them the #1 seed. The Bills are a terrible matchup for the Packers on paper, with a flexible fast offense coupled with the NFL's best d-line against a soft interior line for the Packers. Still, the Packers are money at home, and the only other road game is in Tampa. That Week 17 game against Detroit looms large, I think, as I do expect the Lions to get back on track.
2.) Detroit Lions - 11-5 (5): Speaking of which, the Lions schedule gets a lot easier than playing the two current #1 seeds back-to-back on the road. Their offense woes are startling, given how voluminous they were in 2011-2013, but I do expect that to correct itself somewhat the next three weeks at home. The season really comes down to those two road division games. Win both and they win the division. Lose both and they miss the playoffs (the Seahawks become the #6 seed in that case).
3.) Chicago Bears - 7-9: I was totally surprised to see that the Bears were 5-6. I guess that is what happens when you play the NFC South. They would be leading that division, by the way. The schedule does have a lot of home games left, but also games against current playoff teams. I do think they win two of those three home games in what expects to be cold, winter weather against dome teams.
4.) Minnesota Vikings - 5-11: Like the Texans, I think the shit hits the fan here as well. I just don't think they're as good as those last three teams, and I think the lose close games at home to the Panthers and Jets. Some team has lose those games.
NFC South
1.) New Orleans Saints - 7-9 (4): I Don't Even Want
2.) Carolina Panthers - 6-9-1: To Think About
3.) Atlanta Falcons - 6-10: This Sorry Ass
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2-14: Division At All
NFC West
1.) Arizona Cardinals - 12-4 (1): That is a tough schedule, but I think they match up well against the Falcons and Rams, and I do think they get revenge against the Seahawks in week 16 (by that time they might have clinched the division anyway). The Cardinals are still a good team, with a solid defense and an offense that can muster ~24 points each week. I think that proves costly at some point in January, but they are getting there.
2.) San Francisco 49ers - 10-6 (6): Despite all the in-fighting, the rumors of Harbaugh's exit, the plateauing of Kaepernick, I think the 49ers make it back to the playoffs. They may even make it easily if they don't lose that Chargers game. It helps to have a reasonably manageable schedule, and finally getting Aldon Smith back. This team has transitioned to defense first, to all offense, back to defense first.
3.) Seattle Seahawks - 10-6: Yes, I think we have the defending Champ miss the playoffs for a third straight season. This one would probably be the most surprising, given how many people thought this was the next dynasty. That schedule is tough. I think they make Sanchez's life hell, but I don't think they win those road division games.
4.) St. Louis Rams - 6-10: They might be the best 6-10 team ever. If they ever get consistent QB play, they could win the division in 2015.
Playoffs
Does that look exciting? Well, maybe not. Anyway, let's get to some quick hit playoff picks for a playoff field that is almost definitely not happening in this particular way.
Wild Card Weekend
(A6) MIA 17 @ (A3) IND 24
(A5) CIN 20 @ (A4) BAL 23
(N6) SF 21 @ (N3) DAL 24
(N5) DET 31 @ (N4) NO 24
Divisional Weekend
(A4) BAL 27 @ (A1) NE 24
(A3) IND 24 @ (A2) DEN 38
(N5) DET 13 @ (N1) ARZ 20
(N3) DAL 20 @ (N2) GB 30
Championship Sunday
(A4) BAL 20 @ (A2) DEN 30
(N2) GB 27 @ (N1) ARZ 23
Super Bowl XLIX
(N2) GB 24 vs. (A2) DEN 31
