Doing this quick for this week. I promise, I'll be back with a vengeance next week.
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -6.5)
The defending champ has only lost this game once at home (the Giants, two years ago to Dallas). The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable at home, especially at night where they've straight blown people out for years. I don't think they blow the Packers out, but they open their defense in good fashion.
Packers 17 Seahawks 27 (SEA -6.5)
Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans (HOU -3)
The Texans are getting way too much love for a team that really thinks that Ryan Mallett could be a reasonable option. The Redskins have done good this offseason and while they've looked quite bad in the preseason, the preseason means nothing. I can easily see the Texans winning, but I think there's a little too much value here for the Redskins.
Redskins 23 Texans 17 (WAS +3)
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3)
The Chiefs are in no way starting 9-0 again, not after losing two-fifths of their o-line and key contributors on defense. The Titans don't really have the personnel to take advantage of those flaws anyway. The Chiefs are still at home, which is still a tough place to play. I think the Titans can get some points on offense, but this could be a rare shootout for the Chiefs this season.
Titans 24 Chiefs 31 (KC -3)
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (STL -3)
I don't think the dropoff from Sam Bradford circa 2010-2013 to Shaun Hill is huge, and I don't think it shows up here. The Rams should pressure Cassel into muy mistakes. They have the personnel to take advantage of a soft back-seven of the Vikings as well. The Rams are made to wallop these types of teams.
Vikings 13 Rams 27 (STL -3)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -6.5)
This is a game Roethlisberger has won so many times in his career. I can see the Steelers defense overpowering Brian Hoyer who doesn't have a Josh Gordon to throw it to. The Steelers offense may not be great, and the Browns defense may be above average, but it still doesn't matter when the other side of the matchup is so one-sided.
Browns 13 Steelers 24 (PIT -6.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (CHI -6.5)
Some mid-value underdogs have to cover, right? I like the Bears overall this season, but I could see their defense struggling against on offense that has as many interesting pieces as Buffalo. The Bears should be able to score a lot as well, but this is a renewed challenge for Jay Cutler against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.
Bills 23 Bears 28 (BUF +6.5)
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (NYJ -5.5)
This could be closer than you would think, but the Jets should absolutely shut down the Raiders offense, especially any semblance of a running game from Jennings and MJD. The Raiders defense has some interesting pieces, but the Jets should give Geno good protection.
Raiders 14 Jets 21 (NYJ -5.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -10.5)
Always pick the double digit underdog to cover. I'm going to roll that all year and see how it goes.
Jaguars 20 Eagles 30 (JAX +10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -1.5)
This is the first line I really disagree with. I realize the Ravens are at home, but I think on a neutral field these teams aren't that close. The Bengals have as much talent on defense, and loads more talent on offense. The Ravens HFA edge is less pronounced at 1 PM as well.
Bengals 24 Ravens 16 (CIN +1.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (NO -3)
For the 2nd straight year these two meet in Week 1. Last year in New Orleans the Saints barely held on to win 23-17. The Saints then barely held on to win 17-13 in the return leg in Atlanta. No matter the talent difference, these two teams play close games. I see that happening again, and I can't imagine what the ATS record for teh Falcons are in the Ryan era as home dogs but it has to be good.
Saints 23 Falcons 27 (ATL +3)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (NE -3.5)
Would really like to pick Miami here, and I would not be the least bit shocked if they win, but this is a lower line than I would have liked. The Dolphins are missing guys from suspension and I can see the Pats coming out big in their first game with the new pieces.
Patriots 30 Dolphins 21 (NE -3.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3)
Sure, the Panthers lost some random guys, and sure the Buccaneers are everyone's hot team for the 3rd time in four seasons (2011, 2013 and now this year). The Panthers, to me, are still appreciably better at a lot of positions. This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field which seems like a stretch this early into a season.
Panthers 20 Buccaneers 10 (CAR +3)
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (SF -4.5)
I think this is good value for Dallas, but Dallas is not the type of team to win this game. I can easily see them hanging with the 49ers for 50 minutes but just getting beat at the end. Still, I think Dallas is good value has a home dog here.
49ers 31 Cowboys 27 (DAL +4.5)
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
This line might seem high, but with Robert Mathis out, I can't see the Colts getting to Manning, and I can't see the Colts offense keeping up. The Broncos defense has looked really good so far, and Von Miller might be ready to explode.
Colts 20 Broncos 38 (DEN -7.5)
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (DET -6.5)
This is another line that seems really high. The Giants beat the Lions late last season. Both teams finished 7-9. Yet the Lions are seen as much better in this line? It isn't like the Lions play appreciably better at home, and a case can be made the Giants play better on the road. I don't know if they win, but this line is out of whack.
Giants 21 Lins 27 (NYG +6.5)
San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARZ -3)
FInal game should be a really fun one. The line is perfect, though I think the Cards are getting a little undervalued. The crowd should be good, and I like home teams on Monday Night in general.
Chargers 21 Cardinals 28 (ARZ -3)
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -6.5)
The defending champ has only lost this game once at home (the Giants, two years ago to Dallas). The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable at home, especially at night where they've straight blown people out for years. I don't think they blow the Packers out, but they open their defense in good fashion.
Packers 17 Seahawks 27 (SEA -6.5)
Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans (HOU -3)
The Texans are getting way too much love for a team that really thinks that Ryan Mallett could be a reasonable option. The Redskins have done good this offseason and while they've looked quite bad in the preseason, the preseason means nothing. I can easily see the Texans winning, but I think there's a little too much value here for the Redskins.
Redskins 23 Texans 17 (WAS +3)
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3)
The Chiefs are in no way starting 9-0 again, not after losing two-fifths of their o-line and key contributors on defense. The Titans don't really have the personnel to take advantage of those flaws anyway. The Chiefs are still at home, which is still a tough place to play. I think the Titans can get some points on offense, but this could be a rare shootout for the Chiefs this season.
Titans 24 Chiefs 31 (KC -3)
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (STL -3)
I don't think the dropoff from Sam Bradford circa 2010-2013 to Shaun Hill is huge, and I don't think it shows up here. The Rams should pressure Cassel into muy mistakes. They have the personnel to take advantage of a soft back-seven of the Vikings as well. The Rams are made to wallop these types of teams.
Vikings 13 Rams 27 (STL -3)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -6.5)
This is a game Roethlisberger has won so many times in his career. I can see the Steelers defense overpowering Brian Hoyer who doesn't have a Josh Gordon to throw it to. The Steelers offense may not be great, and the Browns defense may be above average, but it still doesn't matter when the other side of the matchup is so one-sided.
Browns 13 Steelers 24 (PIT -6.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (CHI -6.5)
Some mid-value underdogs have to cover, right? I like the Bears overall this season, but I could see their defense struggling against on offense that has as many interesting pieces as Buffalo. The Bears should be able to score a lot as well, but this is a renewed challenge for Jay Cutler against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.
Bills 23 Bears 28 (BUF +6.5)
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (NYJ -5.5)
This could be closer than you would think, but the Jets should absolutely shut down the Raiders offense, especially any semblance of a running game from Jennings and MJD. The Raiders defense has some interesting pieces, but the Jets should give Geno good protection.
Raiders 14 Jets 21 (NYJ -5.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -10.5)
Always pick the double digit underdog to cover. I'm going to roll that all year and see how it goes.
Jaguars 20 Eagles 30 (JAX +10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -1.5)
This is the first line I really disagree with. I realize the Ravens are at home, but I think on a neutral field these teams aren't that close. The Bengals have as much talent on defense, and loads more talent on offense. The Ravens HFA edge is less pronounced at 1 PM as well.
Bengals 24 Ravens 16 (CIN +1.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (NO -3)
For the 2nd straight year these two meet in Week 1. Last year in New Orleans the Saints barely held on to win 23-17. The Saints then barely held on to win 17-13 in the return leg in Atlanta. No matter the talent difference, these two teams play close games. I see that happening again, and I can't imagine what the ATS record for teh Falcons are in the Ryan era as home dogs but it has to be good.
Saints 23 Falcons 27 (ATL +3)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (NE -3.5)
Would really like to pick Miami here, and I would not be the least bit shocked if they win, but this is a lower line than I would have liked. The Dolphins are missing guys from suspension and I can see the Pats coming out big in their first game with the new pieces.
Patriots 30 Dolphins 21 (NE -3.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3)
Sure, the Panthers lost some random guys, and sure the Buccaneers are everyone's hot team for the 3rd time in four seasons (2011, 2013 and now this year). The Panthers, to me, are still appreciably better at a lot of positions. This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field which seems like a stretch this early into a season.
Panthers 20 Buccaneers 10 (CAR +3)
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (SF -4.5)
I think this is good value for Dallas, but Dallas is not the type of team to win this game. I can easily see them hanging with the 49ers for 50 minutes but just getting beat at the end. Still, I think Dallas is good value has a home dog here.
49ers 31 Cowboys 27 (DAL +4.5)
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
This line might seem high, but with Robert Mathis out, I can't see the Colts getting to Manning, and I can't see the Colts offense keeping up. The Broncos defense has looked really good so far, and Von Miller might be ready to explode.
Colts 20 Broncos 38 (DEN -7.5)
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (DET -6.5)
This is another line that seems really high. The Giants beat the Lions late last season. Both teams finished 7-9. Yet the Lions are seen as much better in this line? It isn't like the Lions play appreciably better at home, and a case can be made the Giants play better on the road. I don't know if they win, but this line is out of whack.
Giants 21 Lins 27 (NYG +6.5)
San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARZ -3)
FInal game should be a really fun one. The line is perfect, though I think the Cards are getting a little undervalued. The crowd should be good, and I like home teams on Monday Night in general.
Chargers 21 Cardinals 28 (ARZ -3)
