Super Bowl XLVIII
(A1) Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. (N1) Seattle Seahawks (15-3)
FOX - 6:30 | DEN -2.5
State of the Teams: The Broncos and Seahawks were the best teams in the AFC and NFC entering the season, the best teams in the AFC and NFC during the season, and now they're meeting in the Super Bowl. This doesn't happen. In 2009, both #1 seeds made it to the Super Bowl, but they weren't trendy favorites before the season. Both these two teams have fought all year to get the haunting memory of an awful Division Round loss a year ago, and they've done it by being better than they were in 2012. The Seahawks have the NFL's best defense, the 7th best since 1989 as per Football Outsiders' DVOA. The Broncos have the 6th best offense since 1989 as per Football Outsiders' DVOA, although I think that underrates the Broncos. They are historically good at what they do, and them playing each other is something that never happens. It will be special, and thankfully the weather seems to be cooperating.
The Broncos definitely enter less healthy than Seattle. Lost in the talk of the brave Patriots making it so far without some of their best players, the Broncos lost their 2nd best player on offense early in the season (Ryan Clady), and played now 11 games without their best defensive player, who happens to be one of the five best defensive players in the NFL coming into this season. They lost their 2nd best corner two weeks ago and replaced him well. Champ Bailey gets healthier each week and he'll has to to replace Harris well. There are some constants. Obviously, Peyton is fully recovered from his midseason ankle injury, which looking back probably had a bigger impact than people realized. His skill position players are fully healthy. The Broncos rush defense has been good all year long, despite shuffling different players around. The Broncos know what they do well. The Seahawks are very healthy, but their problems weren't really rectified when they got healthier. The O-Line is healthy, but is still quite terrible. Percy Harvin is back, but he might get hurt at any moment. Both teams are ready, and I can't wait to see them square off.
The Matchup: Denver Offense vs. Seattle Defense
This is the Marquee matchup that everyone wants to talk about. They were both by far the best units in the NFL this season. There are matchups all over the field to talk about. The Seahawks pass defense is great against everyone. They're top-3 against #1 WRs, TEs and RBs. Where they relatively struggle is against #2 WRs and Slot receivers. Denver can capitalize there. Eric Decker will be big, but the huge wild card can be Wes Welker. He hasn't really had a giant game since coming to Denver and this could be a perfect moment for him to have a memorable game. Welker had big games in both his previous Super Bowls. Welker could also be a key in the red zone. Both teams are staggeringly good in the red zone. This matchup definitely decidees who wins this battle. A trusted formula for winning this game is for hte Seahawks to limit the Broncos to field goals. Wes Welker has been used as a red zone target far more in his one year in Denver than any of his seasons in New England. He has to be in this game because scoring TDs outside in the red zone is kind of impossible against Seattle.
The other matchup is if the Seahawks can get to Peyton. Manning wasn't touched against New England. Despite what people may think, the Patriots have a pretty good pass rush, and Manning read them perfectly getting the ball out quickly each time. Seattle literally has to do better, but the chances of them doing what the Giants did to New England in Super Bowl XLII is unlikely. Another little mismatch that can turn Denver's way is in the playoffs they've become more of a ball-control offense, something Manning's Colts did in 2006. The Broncos have run just 8 drives in their first two games (because of this, they've actually scored more points per drive in the playoffs than the regular season). They have a chance of doing that again. The Broncos punt fewer than any team in the NFL, and went three-and-out fewer than any team besides San Diego. The Seahawks defense is relatively average at doing this. They're only 7th in forcing punts. They're more likely to give up field goals or force turnovers. Not a bad thing, certainly, but the Broncos can shorten this game.
The Broncos running game is also better than most people believe. The Broncos rank 10th in DVOA in rush offense, which matches up well with the Seahawks 8th-ranked by DVOA rush defense. The Seahawks rush defense has been far more variable, though. Take their two games against the Rams. The first time, they gave up over 200 yards in a game they probably should have lost. The 2nd meeting in Week 17, they allowed less than one yard-per-carry. The Seahawks will probably play to stop the pass, so running lanes might be there for the Broncos. Manning has showed this year that he will check to the run each time, as shown by his game in New England this year. Knowshon Moreno will be key to pick up short 3rd downs because picking those up with the pass is a little precarious against Seattle.
The Matchup: Seattle Offense vs. Denver Defense
No one is talking about this matchup, but it is the one that will probably decide what type of game it becomes. The most likely scenario is the Denver Offense scores between 20-27 points. The key will be how well the Seahawks offense plays, against a banged-up but resourceful defense. Look, the Broncos defense is injured beyond belief. Putting aside Von Miller's suspension, the Broncos are missing five of their Week 1 key contributors (Miller, Wolfe, Vickerson, Harris, Moore). Now, some have been replaced pretty capably (Adams for Moore, Bailey for Harris), but depth is a real concern if they have any more injuries. What the Broncos do well, and have done well throughout the season is stop the run. They were a Top-10 run defense when Miller was suspended. They were a Top-10 run defense when Miller came back, and they stayed that way after he got hurt again. They ended the season ranked 9th by DVOA in rush defense, which aligns well to the #7 by DVOA rush offense for Seattle. The Broncos just played a team with a power running game, with a good rush-blocking O-Line, and a large battering ram of a running back. That team was better at running the ball than Seattle and entered off a 200+ yard 6 rush TD performance. They shut that team down cold. The Seahawks were one of just two teams to run the all more than they passed, and they need the run to win games. This is not a great matchup for them.
The main storyline with the Seahawks pass offense will probably be how their league-worst pass protection holds up. The Seahawks gave up more sacks per play than any team in the NFL. They got their starters on the O-Line back later in teh season and continued to play poorly. Wilson was rushed all the time by both New Orleans and San Francisco. Now, the Broncos don't have nearly the pass rush of either of those two teams, but they're able to manufacture pressure. Shaun Phillips has had a really nice season. Inside (where the real weakness of the Seahawks line lies), Malik Jackson has done a nice job rushing from the interior. He and PotRoast Knighton have to win their matchups and ush Wilson back, something more important against a shorter QB like Russell Wilson. His game has definitely dropped off in recent weeks, but some of that is the O-Line. Still, the offense is a little simple. It works because Wilson is really accurate downfield. If he has time, he can take advantage of the poor Broncos safeties. Deep passes are there to be made against the Broncos. What the Broncos do well on defense is cover #2 receivers, which should be big against a team with two top receivers but little else. Percy Harvin could play a factor, but I find it hard to believe someone who's basically played 1.25 games out of 18 will do much in this game. He has no rhythm, and I'm sure the Broncos will key on him when he's in the game early just like the Saints did.
The Pick: This is really tough. These teams are so evenly matched and so well matched. Their strengths will match up against each other. Their weaknesses will match up against each other. There's no easy area where one team has a distinct advantage going up against the opposing unit. Picking with my head is useless since these teams are about as close as any two could be. One point I would make his Seattle's defense has a very high variance. When they're on, they're near untouchable. When they're off, there merely good, which is probably enough to swing this game. Denver is more consistent. What's killed them in their losses are turnovers. That could obviously swing the game but it is hard to ever predict turnovers. The game is so close. My heart tells me Denver. This is just their year. They've even gotten great weather in thier playoff games. 60 degrees against New England, and now mid-30's with little wind for the Super Bowl. Both top units are great, but the Broncos are historically great. They can run the ball better than people think. They can exploit the depth of the Seahawks corner-back group. They can run when the Seahawks let them run. The other side includes probably the worst aspect of any of these teams, the Seahawks O-Line. Their o-line is not good. They can be taken advantage of, and I think they do to some degree. I could very easily be wrong. I hope I am not. I'll just say I am far, far, far less confident about this pick than any Super Bowl pick I've made since I started this blog (despite getting the Steelers/ Packers game very wrong). I just hope that if Peyton Manning loses to a Top-10 defense of the past 20 years in a cold-weather Super Bowl, dumb people in the media don't call Peyton Manning a choker.
Broncos 27 Seahawks 20 (DEN -2.5)
