1.) The hegemony of the AFC Divisions is broken, but just once.
For the first time since the NFL's expansion to 32 teams (and 8 divisions), four teams in one conference repeated as division winners. The Texans, Ravens, Broncos and Patriots repeated the feat, all winning their divisions quite easily (the Texans and Bengals won by a game, but had their divisions locked up well before that). They still seem the class of their divisions given the nature of the rest of the AFC. It is amazing how much the balance of power has shifted back to the NFC, but that doesn't mean the AFC is devoid of competitors, just that it is mostly so. I still think the Patriots win the division, despite their lack of weapons for Tom Brady, the Texans win their division, despite the fact that I think the Colts won't drop off to far, and the Broncos win their division, despite Von Miller's suspension. The one that I think falls off is the Ravens. I already didn't like their offense after losing Anquan Boldin and now with Dennis Pitta out for the year I like them even less. Who is replacing them as AFC North Champions? For me, it isn't the team that made the playoffs out of the division (The Bengals - who I think get a wild card, again), but it is the AFC preeminent sleeping giant, the...
2.) The Steelers Replenish in the most Steelers way possible
Steelers. After missing the playoffs going 8-8 and having merely an above average defense for the first time since 2003, there are legitimate concerns in Pittsburgh right now. I personally don't buy any of them. Ben Roethlisberger is still a really, really good QB, and if he doesn't get hurt at the most inopportune time, the Steelers likely make the playoffs in 2012. The Steelers wideout factory is the most underrated personnel pipeline in the NFL, and I like Markus Wheaton in that role. Of course, why I really like the Steelers is their more vaunted defense pipeline. The old guys are out and the new guys are in, and to me, more of the Steelers new defensive players will than not. I really like Anthony McClendon taking over the NT role, and I like the Hood and Heyward combination. Steelers defenisve players need time to learn and perfect that system and I think they have by now. The steelers have missed the playoffs in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and now 2012. What did they do in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010? Go 13-3, 15-1, 10-6 and 12-4, making a Super Bowl and losing two AFC Championship Games. I think that is the more likely outcome than another season of missing the playoffs.
3.) Like a Season of 'The Wire' the penultimate Week is the most exciting
The Wire was famous for having their most dramatic, memorable episodes be the penultimate ones in each season (deaths of Wallace, Frank, Stringer, Bodie all came in the 2nd to last episode). The NFL is going for that with an absolutely loaded Week 16 slate. There's Denver @ Houston at 1PM (all times tentative), with potential huge AFC Seed implications. There's Pittsburgh @ Green Bay, which, if the Steelers play as well as I expect, could be huge for seeding. There's New England @ Baltimore on Sunday Night, and then Atlanta @ San Francisco on Monday Night. That's right, the two Title Game rematches (in the opposite building) on primetime in Week 16. I really say that all of those games will have playoff implications. Well done, NFL.
4.) College Coaches get Screwed
The NFL is imbued with college coaches right now, as the success of Jim Harbaugh and to a lesser extent, Pete Carroll, have given teams the confidence to hire Doug Marrone, Greg Schiano and Chip Kelly. For years, college coaches failed in the NFL. The last three to do so were Bobby Petrino, who bolted in less than a year, Nick Saban, who waited until year two to bolt, and Steve Spurrier, who failed in two years in Washington. That list contained a Bill Belichick protege who ran a disciplined team, and two coaches who ran gimmicky fast-paced offenses. All failed. Guess what the trio of Marrone, Schiano and Chip Kelly contain: a Bill Belichick disciple and two coaches who ran gimmick offenses. I think all fail. Marrone will probably make it past this year just because it is the first year on the job, but Schiano and Kelly, I think, are in for another rough reminder that the NFL ain't college. Schiano's team started out good last year but crashed and burned embarrasingly, with a five game losing streak that included getting shut out by the worst defense in the NFL (a 41-0 loss to the Saints) and a fifteen point loss at home to the Rams. I still don't like that team. Chip Kelly's offense only works if you can get first downs, as if you cant you are just punting back in 90 seconds of game time and putting a terrible defense back on the field, which I think they will be doing, a lot. As for Marrone, again, that team is a year or two away at best. Coaches that are successful in college just aren't in the pros. Ask Nick Saban, builder of an NCAA dynasty and failure as a NFL coach.
5.) Sean Payton's return to New Orleans won't be too Sweet
The Saints dropped from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012 as Sean Payton missed the season. Without Payton, Drew Brees turned into an inaccurate (for Brees), pick-throwing machine. The general consensus is that with Payton returning, Brees will fix all those problems, the offense will resemble the robotic brilliance that they had in 2011 and all of the Saints problems will be solved. I say bunk. First, there were bigger problems with the Saints offense in 2012 than just not having Payton. The loss of Carl Nicks really hurt that run game, and Drew Brees, more than the other top-flight QBs, needs a run game to be ultra-successful. When he doesn't have a consistent run game, he starts forcing balls and becomes pick happy. This was evident last year, as it was in 2010, when Brees threw 22 picks. The lack of weapons is meaningful as well. The bigger problem, though, is their defense. Steve Spagnuolo was a big mismatch for their talent, but Rob Ryan is, while not a mismatch, a totally overrated defensive coordinator. His defenses never lived up to his hype in Dallas or even before that in Cleveland. He doesn't have many talented players at all on that defenses, and I can't see his schemes really working there. I predict another season of hovering around .500 for the Saints, a team that wasn't all that consistent in making the playoffs with Payton either.
6.) The Broncos, with all their problems, still get the #1 seed
The Broncos had a really good offseason, save for the fax-machine snafu. I liked all of their signings, like Wes Welker, Louis Vasquez to play LG, or Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie to play Corner, or Terrance Knighton. Even Shaun Phillips as the emergency replacement signing for Dumervil was decent (I was hoping for Freeney, personally). That said, the Broncos have had a miserable preseason. Von Miller will miss the first six games. Stewart Bradley is hurt. Rodgers-Cromartie, Bailey and Welker all got dinged up (all are expected back for Week 1). Still, other than Miller who is definitely missing six games, all these problems should sort themselves out. The fact remains that this is still the most talented team Peyton Manning has played for since the 2006 Colts. Losing Dumervil hurts, but he's probably been overrated by the media now that he is gone. The key loss is Miller, but three of Miller's six games missed are gimmes anyway (OAK, JAX, PHI), and while the other three are tough, the worst I see the Broncos doing with Miller out is 4-2. Their schedule is quite easy at the back end, and outside of showdowns with Houston and New England on the road, all remaining games seem like wins. Peyton Manning has been on less talented teams and still gone 12-4 (2003, 2008), 13-3 (2007), or even 14-2 (2009). I'm not worried. What I am worried about is Rahim Moore not knowing what 'safety' means come January.
7.) The Big Cats Come Back
I already said that I think the Bengals make it back to the playoffs, so this is about the other two cat-based NFL teams, the Lions and Panthers. The Lions, like most teams that make a huge jump one year, fell back. Of course, no one envisioned them falling back to 4-12, but they played more like a 6-10 or 7-9 team. They lost five consecutive games where they were tied or in the lead in the 4th quarter. That type of bad luck doesn't happen again. I love their defensive line, and I think they, together, have a monster, monster season. The secondary is terrible, but they can win enough 30-24 type games. I love the addition of Reggie Bush to play the 'Reggie Bush' role in that offense, giving Matthew Stafford a nice move-the-chains option. I think they'll be the big sleeper that makes the playoffs. On the other side is the Panthers, the team that was hyped up coming into 2012 after a 6-10 record. They did get better, going 7-9 and playing more sustainably. They were an underwhelming 7-9, another team that lost a lot of close games. That defense is ready to be really good. They also have problems in the secondary, but their front seven is probably a Top-10 unit. Their offense is still quite good at times and I can't imagine DeAngelo and J-Stew having seasons that bad again. Surprise teams happen each year, and I think they both crash the playoffs party, maybe against each other.
8.) One of these under-the-radar teams in the AFC makes the playoffs (Jets, Colts, Chargers)
I did a similar prediction last year, saying either that one of these three teams would make the playoffs and the Colts will. They are all secondary teams in the three AFC Divisions with clear 'most talented teams' at the top. The Jets and Chargers are being overlooked (with some reason) for sexier sleeper wild card picks in the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Dolphins are talented, but I think Ryan Tannehill's rookie season has been wildly overrated. As for the Chiefs, I have never seen a team that was a trendy wild card pick one year be again a trendy wild card pick the next year when in the year in between they play putridly. Honestly, people were touting the Chiefs as a sleeper Wild Card in 2012, and they proceeded to go 2-14 with everyone healthy. As for the Jets, Colts and Chargers. They all have major weaknesses. With the Jets it is offense, with teh Colts it is defense adn with the Chargers it is rampant mediocrity splayed across that lineup. That said, the positives are there too. The Jets have the most talented defense on paper that they've had since 2010, and Mark Sanchez cannot possibly be worse than he was in 2012. The Colts still have a very good offense, and I expect big things from their weaponry outside this year. The Chargers have an easy schedule and I expect a bounceback Philip Rivers season. For this to be right, only one of the three have to be correct. I like my odds.
9.) The Pistol is Figured Out (to a degree)
First of all, I should say that the pistol was used far less than most people believe. Only a handful of teams even had it as any substantial portion of their offense. The read-option was more prevalent. I'm bundling them together here. Since the QB is actively involved, I think the pistol/read-option won't be as solvable as the Wildcat was, but I think defensive coordinators will pretty much solve it. To me, the key is just make the QB hand it off and play it as a normal run play. Obviously, it isn't that simple, but there are defenses in college that can play it well. The other is injuries. We've already seen RGIII get hurt once. They will pile up. My other solution if I was a coordinator would be to tell my defense to hit the QB every time they do a read-option. Force the offenses hand by repeatedly smashing the QB. Anyway, Kaepernick, Newton, RGIII and Wilson are good enough passers to make it last to some degree, but I don't think this is a long term change in the way the NFL works.
10.) The Great NFC West Race becomes more muddled than Great
49ers and Seahawks. That's what the NFC West should come to, and if you listen to many people, it seems like that is what the NFL in total will come down to. They are seen as the two most talented teams in the NFL. Personally, I think they are both quite good teams, but I think both take a step back. Some of it boils down to my 9th prediction about the read-option beign less prevalent. The other is that while talented, they have holes. The 49ers are really lacking good outside weapons. Crabtree is injured, Manningham is injured again. They are depending on some really underwhelming receivers at this point, and an aging Anquan Boldin who was doing nothing until a mini-rennaissance in the playoffs. For the Seahawks, their pass rush is really overrated, and their o-line is merely good. The Seahawks have more talent, but also a larger propensity to play sloppy and slow in away games. Why I think it becomes muddled is that the division also has a good team in St. Louis and a merely slightly below average one in Arizona. I think the Cardinals offense does a lot better with Palmer, as he's a monumental upgrade from Lindley/Skelton. Their defense is still really good. You know who else has a really good defense? St. Louis. They're another team perfectly built to hang with Seattle and San Francisco (as they did, going 2-1-1 against them last year). I can easily see Arizona and St. Louis going a combined 15-17, which doesn't leave a lot of room for the 49ers and Seahawks to both go 11-5+. In the end, Seattle and San Francisco are still probably the two best teams in that division, but I wouldn't expect the NFC's #1 seed to be an NFC West team.
For the first time since the NFL's expansion to 32 teams (and 8 divisions), four teams in one conference repeated as division winners. The Texans, Ravens, Broncos and Patriots repeated the feat, all winning their divisions quite easily (the Texans and Bengals won by a game, but had their divisions locked up well before that). They still seem the class of their divisions given the nature of the rest of the AFC. It is amazing how much the balance of power has shifted back to the NFC, but that doesn't mean the AFC is devoid of competitors, just that it is mostly so. I still think the Patriots win the division, despite their lack of weapons for Tom Brady, the Texans win their division, despite the fact that I think the Colts won't drop off to far, and the Broncos win their division, despite Von Miller's suspension. The one that I think falls off is the Ravens. I already didn't like their offense after losing Anquan Boldin and now with Dennis Pitta out for the year I like them even less. Who is replacing them as AFC North Champions? For me, it isn't the team that made the playoffs out of the division (The Bengals - who I think get a wild card, again), but it is the AFC preeminent sleeping giant, the...
2.) The Steelers Replenish in the most Steelers way possible
Steelers. After missing the playoffs going 8-8 and having merely an above average defense for the first time since 2003, there are legitimate concerns in Pittsburgh right now. I personally don't buy any of them. Ben Roethlisberger is still a really, really good QB, and if he doesn't get hurt at the most inopportune time, the Steelers likely make the playoffs in 2012. The Steelers wideout factory is the most underrated personnel pipeline in the NFL, and I like Markus Wheaton in that role. Of course, why I really like the Steelers is their more vaunted defense pipeline. The old guys are out and the new guys are in, and to me, more of the Steelers new defensive players will than not. I really like Anthony McClendon taking over the NT role, and I like the Hood and Heyward combination. Steelers defenisve players need time to learn and perfect that system and I think they have by now. The steelers have missed the playoffs in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and now 2012. What did they do in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010? Go 13-3, 15-1, 10-6 and 12-4, making a Super Bowl and losing two AFC Championship Games. I think that is the more likely outcome than another season of missing the playoffs.
3.) Like a Season of 'The Wire' the penultimate Week is the most exciting
The Wire was famous for having their most dramatic, memorable episodes be the penultimate ones in each season (deaths of Wallace, Frank, Stringer, Bodie all came in the 2nd to last episode). The NFL is going for that with an absolutely loaded Week 16 slate. There's Denver @ Houston at 1PM (all times tentative), with potential huge AFC Seed implications. There's Pittsburgh @ Green Bay, which, if the Steelers play as well as I expect, could be huge for seeding. There's New England @ Baltimore on Sunday Night, and then Atlanta @ San Francisco on Monday Night. That's right, the two Title Game rematches (in the opposite building) on primetime in Week 16. I really say that all of those games will have playoff implications. Well done, NFL.
4.) College Coaches get Screwed
The NFL is imbued with college coaches right now, as the success of Jim Harbaugh and to a lesser extent, Pete Carroll, have given teams the confidence to hire Doug Marrone, Greg Schiano and Chip Kelly. For years, college coaches failed in the NFL. The last three to do so were Bobby Petrino, who bolted in less than a year, Nick Saban, who waited until year two to bolt, and Steve Spurrier, who failed in two years in Washington. That list contained a Bill Belichick protege who ran a disciplined team, and two coaches who ran gimmicky fast-paced offenses. All failed. Guess what the trio of Marrone, Schiano and Chip Kelly contain: a Bill Belichick disciple and two coaches who ran gimmick offenses. I think all fail. Marrone will probably make it past this year just because it is the first year on the job, but Schiano and Kelly, I think, are in for another rough reminder that the NFL ain't college. Schiano's team started out good last year but crashed and burned embarrasingly, with a five game losing streak that included getting shut out by the worst defense in the NFL (a 41-0 loss to the Saints) and a fifteen point loss at home to the Rams. I still don't like that team. Chip Kelly's offense only works if you can get first downs, as if you cant you are just punting back in 90 seconds of game time and putting a terrible defense back on the field, which I think they will be doing, a lot. As for Marrone, again, that team is a year or two away at best. Coaches that are successful in college just aren't in the pros. Ask Nick Saban, builder of an NCAA dynasty and failure as a NFL coach.
5.) Sean Payton's return to New Orleans won't be too Sweet
The Saints dropped from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012 as Sean Payton missed the season. Without Payton, Drew Brees turned into an inaccurate (for Brees), pick-throwing machine. The general consensus is that with Payton returning, Brees will fix all those problems, the offense will resemble the robotic brilliance that they had in 2011 and all of the Saints problems will be solved. I say bunk. First, there were bigger problems with the Saints offense in 2012 than just not having Payton. The loss of Carl Nicks really hurt that run game, and Drew Brees, more than the other top-flight QBs, needs a run game to be ultra-successful. When he doesn't have a consistent run game, he starts forcing balls and becomes pick happy. This was evident last year, as it was in 2010, when Brees threw 22 picks. The lack of weapons is meaningful as well. The bigger problem, though, is their defense. Steve Spagnuolo was a big mismatch for their talent, but Rob Ryan is, while not a mismatch, a totally overrated defensive coordinator. His defenses never lived up to his hype in Dallas or even before that in Cleveland. He doesn't have many talented players at all on that defenses, and I can't see his schemes really working there. I predict another season of hovering around .500 for the Saints, a team that wasn't all that consistent in making the playoffs with Payton either.
6.) The Broncos, with all their problems, still get the #1 seed
The Broncos had a really good offseason, save for the fax-machine snafu. I liked all of their signings, like Wes Welker, Louis Vasquez to play LG, or Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie to play Corner, or Terrance Knighton. Even Shaun Phillips as the emergency replacement signing for Dumervil was decent (I was hoping for Freeney, personally). That said, the Broncos have had a miserable preseason. Von Miller will miss the first six games. Stewart Bradley is hurt. Rodgers-Cromartie, Bailey and Welker all got dinged up (all are expected back for Week 1). Still, other than Miller who is definitely missing six games, all these problems should sort themselves out. The fact remains that this is still the most talented team Peyton Manning has played for since the 2006 Colts. Losing Dumervil hurts, but he's probably been overrated by the media now that he is gone. The key loss is Miller, but three of Miller's six games missed are gimmes anyway (OAK, JAX, PHI), and while the other three are tough, the worst I see the Broncos doing with Miller out is 4-2. Their schedule is quite easy at the back end, and outside of showdowns with Houston and New England on the road, all remaining games seem like wins. Peyton Manning has been on less talented teams and still gone 12-4 (2003, 2008), 13-3 (2007), or even 14-2 (2009). I'm not worried. What I am worried about is Rahim Moore not knowing what 'safety' means come January.
7.) The Big Cats Come Back
I already said that I think the Bengals make it back to the playoffs, so this is about the other two cat-based NFL teams, the Lions and Panthers. The Lions, like most teams that make a huge jump one year, fell back. Of course, no one envisioned them falling back to 4-12, but they played more like a 6-10 or 7-9 team. They lost five consecutive games where they were tied or in the lead in the 4th quarter. That type of bad luck doesn't happen again. I love their defensive line, and I think they, together, have a monster, monster season. The secondary is terrible, but they can win enough 30-24 type games. I love the addition of Reggie Bush to play the 'Reggie Bush' role in that offense, giving Matthew Stafford a nice move-the-chains option. I think they'll be the big sleeper that makes the playoffs. On the other side is the Panthers, the team that was hyped up coming into 2012 after a 6-10 record. They did get better, going 7-9 and playing more sustainably. They were an underwhelming 7-9, another team that lost a lot of close games. That defense is ready to be really good. They also have problems in the secondary, but their front seven is probably a Top-10 unit. Their offense is still quite good at times and I can't imagine DeAngelo and J-Stew having seasons that bad again. Surprise teams happen each year, and I think they both crash the playoffs party, maybe against each other.
8.) One of these under-the-radar teams in the AFC makes the playoffs (Jets, Colts, Chargers)
I did a similar prediction last year, saying either that one of these three teams would make the playoffs and the Colts will. They are all secondary teams in the three AFC Divisions with clear 'most talented teams' at the top. The Jets and Chargers are being overlooked (with some reason) for sexier sleeper wild card picks in the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Dolphins are talented, but I think Ryan Tannehill's rookie season has been wildly overrated. As for the Chiefs, I have never seen a team that was a trendy wild card pick one year be again a trendy wild card pick the next year when in the year in between they play putridly. Honestly, people were touting the Chiefs as a sleeper Wild Card in 2012, and they proceeded to go 2-14 with everyone healthy. As for the Jets, Colts and Chargers. They all have major weaknesses. With the Jets it is offense, with teh Colts it is defense adn with the Chargers it is rampant mediocrity splayed across that lineup. That said, the positives are there too. The Jets have the most talented defense on paper that they've had since 2010, and Mark Sanchez cannot possibly be worse than he was in 2012. The Colts still have a very good offense, and I expect big things from their weaponry outside this year. The Chargers have an easy schedule and I expect a bounceback Philip Rivers season. For this to be right, only one of the three have to be correct. I like my odds.
9.) The Pistol is Figured Out (to a degree)
First of all, I should say that the pistol was used far less than most people believe. Only a handful of teams even had it as any substantial portion of their offense. The read-option was more prevalent. I'm bundling them together here. Since the QB is actively involved, I think the pistol/read-option won't be as solvable as the Wildcat was, but I think defensive coordinators will pretty much solve it. To me, the key is just make the QB hand it off and play it as a normal run play. Obviously, it isn't that simple, but there are defenses in college that can play it well. The other is injuries. We've already seen RGIII get hurt once. They will pile up. My other solution if I was a coordinator would be to tell my defense to hit the QB every time they do a read-option. Force the offenses hand by repeatedly smashing the QB. Anyway, Kaepernick, Newton, RGIII and Wilson are good enough passers to make it last to some degree, but I don't think this is a long term change in the way the NFL works.
10.) The Great NFC West Race becomes more muddled than Great
49ers and Seahawks. That's what the NFC West should come to, and if you listen to many people, it seems like that is what the NFL in total will come down to. They are seen as the two most talented teams in the NFL. Personally, I think they are both quite good teams, but I think both take a step back. Some of it boils down to my 9th prediction about the read-option beign less prevalent. The other is that while talented, they have holes. The 49ers are really lacking good outside weapons. Crabtree is injured, Manningham is injured again. They are depending on some really underwhelming receivers at this point, and an aging Anquan Boldin who was doing nothing until a mini-rennaissance in the playoffs. For the Seahawks, their pass rush is really overrated, and their o-line is merely good. The Seahawks have more talent, but also a larger propensity to play sloppy and slow in away games. Why I think it becomes muddled is that the division also has a good team in St. Louis and a merely slightly below average one in Arizona. I think the Cardinals offense does a lot better with Palmer, as he's a monumental upgrade from Lindley/Skelton. Their defense is still really good. You know who else has a really good defense? St. Louis. They're another team perfectly built to hang with Seattle and San Francisco (as they did, going 2-1-1 against them last year). I can easily see Arizona and St. Louis going a combined 15-17, which doesn't leave a lot of room for the 49ers and Seahawks to both go 11-5+. In the end, Seattle and San Francisco are still probably the two best teams in that division, but I wouldn't expect the NFC's #1 seed to be an NFC West team.
