With the NFL Playoff Countdown almost over (and it will end), it is time to look towards Year 1 of Decade 2 of my NFL Experience, or what is more commonly known as the 2012 NFL Season. To start, here are 10 underlined (not bold) predictions for the 2012 NFL Season. A lot of this will allude and play off what I will reveal in my AFC and NFC Previews later this weekend.
1.) Defenses return in force, as no QB throws for 5,000 yards or 40 TDs, and at most one team scores 500 points.
I had the same prediction before the 2010 season, and that came mostly true. In 2009, nine QBs threw for 4,000 yards and in 2010 only three did. Last year, ten QBs did the feat (and three topped 5,000). Last year, three teams scored over 500 points, including two top-5 teams (Saints, Packers). The only previous season to have multiple teams scoring over 500 was 1998 (Vikings and Broncos). I'll say this, no QB is throwing 5,000 yards. All the people drafting Brees or Brady high in fantasy leagues and just expecting 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs will be in for a surprise. There are two reasons why I feel this way: 1.) the 2011 season, partly due to a lockout, was a fluke that will just not repeat itself, and 2.) Replacement refs, who have been calling a lot less illegal contact and pass interference. The league is still moving in a pass-first and offense-first direction (despite absolutely no evidence that TV ratings and league interest is tied to scoring or passing), but 2011 was a fluke. Expect a slight correction in 2012.
2.) Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III don't make like Dalton and make the playoffs, but another rookie QB does.
Andrew Luck and RGIII inherited bad teams with bad offensive units (Colts o-line and Redskins skill positions) and marginal defenses (Colts) and tough divisions (Redskins). There is one rookie QB to inherit none of these things, and it isn't Mr. Lauren Tannehill (my God is that woman hot). Recently named starter Russell Wilson is that man, and he has the perfect situation. First, he's in a weak division, with the Rams still rebuilding, the Cardinals still QB-less, and the 49ers due for some serious regression. Next, he's good a defense whose floor is above average and whose ceiling is great. He has an offense with no bad positional groups. Receiver is the only questionable one with Sidney Rice's health. The Seahawks also have a great home field advantage, a manageable schedule (most of their hard out-of-division games are at home - New England, Green Bay) and a team that was already 7-9 with Tarvaris Jackson. The Seahawks will win the NFC West.
3.) The Cowboys become the Eagles, and the Eagles become, well, the McNabb era Eagles.
The Eagles enter this season with some of the hype they entered last season with, what with the 'dynasty' talk replacing the 'dream team,' while the Cowboys are getting some preseason love, with the selection of Morris Claiborne and the return of DeMarco Murray and co. But to me, the Eagles are clearly the better team. The Cowboys under Romo have peaked. They were 8-8 last year and deserved to be 8-8. The Eagles were 8-8 but deserved to be about 10-6, but threw away some early season games and then had to suffer the Vince Young experience. The Cowboys could easily be worse than 8-8, what with losing Miles Austin for some period of time and with Jason Witten's spleen becoming a supporting actor in the 2012 Cowboys show. The Cowboys defense has supposedly improved with the additions of Claiborne and Brandon Carr, but their safeties are still awful and their d-line has regressed. As for the Eagles, their backup QB situation is better than in 2011 seemingly, but their front-line talent is fine. Juan Castillo's defense seemed to gel as 2011 wore on, and they still have among the league's best pass rushes. DeSean Jackson promises to be more focused in 2011, and for some reason I believe him. The Cowboys will implode, and Jason Garrett could easily be fired after a third straight year without the Cowboys in January.
4.) The Texans get the AFC's top seed as they capitalize on the league's worst division.
The Texans after 10 games were the NFL's 2nd best team. They were 7-3, had the league's best defense and the third best offense. They had a top-5 pass and rush defense, with a QB with a 96.8 passer rating and the third best rushing attack in the NFL. They were the league's most complete team. Then Matt Schaub got hurt, and the Texans treaded water. They still managed to make the playoffs for the first time and win their first playoff game. They are flying under the radar heading into 2012 mainly because of a perceived salary purge in the offseason which saw them lose Mario Williams and Eric Winston. Of course, they managed that 2011 season with Mario Williams playing six games. Williams is gone, but Reed, Barwin and Watt are all a year older and better. Plus, Andre Johnson should play more than 7 games in 2012. Their o-line is still among the best in the NFL even without Winston. The best part for the Texans is that they can feast on the AFC South, a division with two rookie coaches (Mularkey and Pagano), a rookie QB (Luck), two sophomore QBs (Locker, Gabbert), and a sophomore coach (Munchak). Outside of Houston, this is the worst division in the NFL in 2012, and the Texans should go at least 5-1 in the division. They are still the most complete team in the AFC (Pittsburgh is probably 2nd), and they are, in my opinion, the best team in the AFC. The Texans will make the playoffs again, but this time, Matt Schaub will be behind center, not TJ Yates.
5.) Peyton Manning has one of the best three seasons of any QB in the NFL.
Peyton Manning seems healthy. He has weapons that equal what he had in Indy from 2007 to now, with Thomas, Decker, Caldwell (who played well when Palmer was his QB), Tamme and Dreessen equaling any combination of Wayne, post-injury Marvin, Moorehead, rookie Collie, sophomore Garcon and Dallas Clark. The best part is he has the best o-line he's had since 2006. Even without Chris Kuper for some time, the o-line is so much better than any Colts line since 2007 that it is scary. Manning had barely any time to throw from 2008-2010, and no real running game because of that same shit-ay o-line, but now it is all different. That o-line is good, and Manning hasn't had good in some time. Manning can be great in Denver because that offensive situation is great, and plus that defense isn't good enough for Manning to relax. There might be more than three QBs to have more yards or TDs, but in terms of their complete effect as a player, Manning will be a serious MVP candidate.
6.) The Steelers, despite having a defense as old as the city of Pittsburgh itself, will have the NFL's best defense, and LaMarr Woodley will be the centerpience.
Yes, it was largely due to the 49ers giving up 27 points in the season finale, but the Steelers did lead the NFL in scoring defense once again in 2011, which was the 3rd time in 4 seasons (2009 being the outlier). Well, I think it goes to four out of five. The Steelers defense may be "old" but just like the Steelers defense in the early 2000s, those older players will be phased out, and history shows that the transition will be smooth. Ziggy Hood is ready to break out, and Cameron Heyward and Steve McClendon are getting their MS in LeBeau-ology as we speak. Their top players are closer to the end than the beginning, but they are still in their primes. The Steelers defense in 2011 was the best in the AFC without Harrison and Woodley for 7 games a piece. They won't be that injured in 2012, and I think Woodley could be one of the better defensive players in the NFL in 2012. He has been slowly getting better each year, and now at 26, can have the first season of what could be a great middle portion of his career.
7.) The Falcons do what they do, win a division despite being the 2nd or 3rd most captivating team.
The Falcons had easily the least interesting offseason of any NFC South Team. The Panthers are close, but they still have Cam in all his glory, and a lot of hype entering 2012. The Buccaneers went out and signed two major free agents in Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks and replaced Raheem Morris with Belichick-neophyte Greg Schaino. The Saints had that little bounty kerfuffle, and will start the season with an interim for their interim. The Falcons, well they sat quietly off of their 24-2 desolate playoff loss to the Giants, and made one move, but it could be huge. A lot of fuss is being made of the Falcons losing Curtis Lofton to the Saints, but their trade for Samuel could be a lot more important. Asante Samuel, by Football Outsiders game charting, has been either the best or second best corner in the NFL the past three seasons. He should excel in that defense, and with Samuel in toe, the Falcons have quietly assembled the best trio of corners in the NFL, with Asante joining Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. I expect Ray Edwards to have a better season in 2012, and that offense is still good. Michael Turner's age and decreased production should be offset by Julio Jones, who showed quite a few flashes of the star he could easily be. The Falcons are just two years off of a 13-3 season. They might not reach those heights, but they probably won't need to to reclaim a division that has, since its creation in 2002, never been defended successfully.
8.) There's a surprise sleeper Wild-Card AFC team, but it isn't one of the two logical choices (Bills or Chiefs).
The most teams that have returned back to the playoffs in the AFC since the new format in 2002 is four, which has happened twice. In 2008, the Titans, Steelers, Colts and Chargers made it back from 2007, and in 2005, the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and Steelers made it back from 2004. This year, I think four teams will make it back. Out of the two that don't, the obvious choice in Cincinnati. Surprise sleepers rarely do all that well the next year (but often rebound in year 3, so 2013 might be nicer for the Bengals). The worst playoff team in the bunch last year was Denver, but they went out and got Peyton. No, I think Baltimore, off of losing Suggs for a long time, will be that second team, and in their and Cincinnati's place will land two of the following: Jets, Raiders, Chargers. The Bills and Chiefs are a little too hyped for my liking. Big moves in FA never really work, and the Chiefs still employ a coach with little track record of success, and a QB who has done little in KC outside of one fluke low-interception year in 2010. The Jets are in that position where the season could easily go 5-11, but they still have a ton of talent. That defense is more versatile now than it was the past two seasons, and Santonio Holmes should be healtheir in 2012. The other two are a pair of AFC West Teams that have nice pieces. The Chargers are still a good bet because they still have one of the three or four best QBs in the AFC. The Raiders have a lot of talent, but little depth. If they stay relatively healthy, they can win 10 games. That could all go away if the starters get hurt at the pace they did last year. The Raiders and Chargers (and Jets) have as much of a chance at the playoffs as the Bills and Chiefs.
9.) Totally Bold, Inane Prediction: Week 17 will be crazy, and it will all end with a little bit of 2011 dejavu on NBC.
Just looking at the Week 17 schedule, almost every game seems potentially interesting. Jets @ Bills could have Wild Card implications, as could Ravens @ Bengals (though I feel the Bengals will take a step back away from Wild Card contention), Bears @ Lions (ditto for the Lions), Panthers @ Saints (although that could easily be for what team will just reach above .500) and maybe even Cardinals @ 49ers (hey, we can dream, right?). That said, there are two potentially massive games, and they both echo the ending of 2011. The first is Raiders @ Chargers. That could easily be for a wild card spot, and it would harken back to Week 17 in 2011, where the Chargers beat the Raiders in Oakland, a game that had the Raiders won, they would have made the playoffs. That said, it would all be an appetizier to what could, and I would put money on this, be the SNF Game: Eagles @ Giants. That could be for the division, much like Cowbooys @ Giants Week 17 last year was. I expect the Giants to win their game, win the division and push the Eagles to another jaunt through the Wild Card rounds.
10.) Both Manning's play in the title games, and mirroring the brother's Harbaugh in 2011, both lose, to the Texans and Bears respectively.
I'll talk more about that Texans and Bears prediction later when I do my conference previews (I did talk about the Texans a little bit in point #4), but I'll talk here about that other part. I've bought into the Broncos, man. I really have. That o-line is just so much better than anything Manning's used since 2006 (of course, he won 13, 12, 14 and 10 games, two MVP awards with those bad lines). His weapons are fine, his running game good. That defense is built to play with a lead. I bought into the Broncos, but just not enough, I guess. There is something that seems too perfect to believe about the Broncos actually winning it all in Year 1. Do I want to believe it? Yes, but I just can't see it. I hope it doesn't end as ignominiously as Favre's Title Game loss in Year 1 in Minnesota, but I think it does have its expiration date, at least as far as 2012 is concerned. As for the Giants, they have a habit of losing playoff games when they are expected to win (against Carolina in 2005 and Philly in 2008), and after what should, in my mind, be a great regular season, most will expect them to win. I think they can get by one game, but I'm not ready to live in a world where Eli Manning has three Super Bowl rings. I think they get two steps away from reaching that place. Archie and Olivia Manning have had so much to cheer for, but giving them the palpable hope of Eli and Peyton's teams squaring off against each other in the Super Bowl in Archie's ol' stomping grounds of New Orleans and then snatching that idea away at the last minute seems like something that is just cruel enough to happen.
Up Next: The AFC Preview
1.) Defenses return in force, as no QB throws for 5,000 yards or 40 TDs, and at most one team scores 500 points.
I had the same prediction before the 2010 season, and that came mostly true. In 2009, nine QBs threw for 4,000 yards and in 2010 only three did. Last year, ten QBs did the feat (and three topped 5,000). Last year, three teams scored over 500 points, including two top-5 teams (Saints, Packers). The only previous season to have multiple teams scoring over 500 was 1998 (Vikings and Broncos). I'll say this, no QB is throwing 5,000 yards. All the people drafting Brees or Brady high in fantasy leagues and just expecting 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs will be in for a surprise. There are two reasons why I feel this way: 1.) the 2011 season, partly due to a lockout, was a fluke that will just not repeat itself, and 2.) Replacement refs, who have been calling a lot less illegal contact and pass interference. The league is still moving in a pass-first and offense-first direction (despite absolutely no evidence that TV ratings and league interest is tied to scoring or passing), but 2011 was a fluke. Expect a slight correction in 2012.
2.) Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III don't make like Dalton and make the playoffs, but another rookie QB does.
Andrew Luck and RGIII inherited bad teams with bad offensive units (Colts o-line and Redskins skill positions) and marginal defenses (Colts) and tough divisions (Redskins). There is one rookie QB to inherit none of these things, and it isn't Mr. Lauren Tannehill (my God is that woman hot). Recently named starter Russell Wilson is that man, and he has the perfect situation. First, he's in a weak division, with the Rams still rebuilding, the Cardinals still QB-less, and the 49ers due for some serious regression. Next, he's good a defense whose floor is above average and whose ceiling is great. He has an offense with no bad positional groups. Receiver is the only questionable one with Sidney Rice's health. The Seahawks also have a great home field advantage, a manageable schedule (most of their hard out-of-division games are at home - New England, Green Bay) and a team that was already 7-9 with Tarvaris Jackson. The Seahawks will win the NFC West.
3.) The Cowboys become the Eagles, and the Eagles become, well, the McNabb era Eagles.
The Eagles enter this season with some of the hype they entered last season with, what with the 'dynasty' talk replacing the 'dream team,' while the Cowboys are getting some preseason love, with the selection of Morris Claiborne and the return of DeMarco Murray and co. But to me, the Eagles are clearly the better team. The Cowboys under Romo have peaked. They were 8-8 last year and deserved to be 8-8. The Eagles were 8-8 but deserved to be about 10-6, but threw away some early season games and then had to suffer the Vince Young experience. The Cowboys could easily be worse than 8-8, what with losing Miles Austin for some period of time and with Jason Witten's spleen becoming a supporting actor in the 2012 Cowboys show. The Cowboys defense has supposedly improved with the additions of Claiborne and Brandon Carr, but their safeties are still awful and their d-line has regressed. As for the Eagles, their backup QB situation is better than in 2011 seemingly, but their front-line talent is fine. Juan Castillo's defense seemed to gel as 2011 wore on, and they still have among the league's best pass rushes. DeSean Jackson promises to be more focused in 2011, and for some reason I believe him. The Cowboys will implode, and Jason Garrett could easily be fired after a third straight year without the Cowboys in January.
4.) The Texans get the AFC's top seed as they capitalize on the league's worst division.
The Texans after 10 games were the NFL's 2nd best team. They were 7-3, had the league's best defense and the third best offense. They had a top-5 pass and rush defense, with a QB with a 96.8 passer rating and the third best rushing attack in the NFL. They were the league's most complete team. Then Matt Schaub got hurt, and the Texans treaded water. They still managed to make the playoffs for the first time and win their first playoff game. They are flying under the radar heading into 2012 mainly because of a perceived salary purge in the offseason which saw them lose Mario Williams and Eric Winston. Of course, they managed that 2011 season with Mario Williams playing six games. Williams is gone, but Reed, Barwin and Watt are all a year older and better. Plus, Andre Johnson should play more than 7 games in 2012. Their o-line is still among the best in the NFL even without Winston. The best part for the Texans is that they can feast on the AFC South, a division with two rookie coaches (Mularkey and Pagano), a rookie QB (Luck), two sophomore QBs (Locker, Gabbert), and a sophomore coach (Munchak). Outside of Houston, this is the worst division in the NFL in 2012, and the Texans should go at least 5-1 in the division. They are still the most complete team in the AFC (Pittsburgh is probably 2nd), and they are, in my opinion, the best team in the AFC. The Texans will make the playoffs again, but this time, Matt Schaub will be behind center, not TJ Yates.
5.) Peyton Manning has one of the best three seasons of any QB in the NFL.
Peyton Manning seems healthy. He has weapons that equal what he had in Indy from 2007 to now, with Thomas, Decker, Caldwell (who played well when Palmer was his QB), Tamme and Dreessen equaling any combination of Wayne, post-injury Marvin, Moorehead, rookie Collie, sophomore Garcon and Dallas Clark. The best part is he has the best o-line he's had since 2006. Even without Chris Kuper for some time, the o-line is so much better than any Colts line since 2007 that it is scary. Manning had barely any time to throw from 2008-2010, and no real running game because of that same shit-ay o-line, but now it is all different. That o-line is good, and Manning hasn't had good in some time. Manning can be great in Denver because that offensive situation is great, and plus that defense isn't good enough for Manning to relax. There might be more than three QBs to have more yards or TDs, but in terms of their complete effect as a player, Manning will be a serious MVP candidate.
6.) The Steelers, despite having a defense as old as the city of Pittsburgh itself, will have the NFL's best defense, and LaMarr Woodley will be the centerpience.
Yes, it was largely due to the 49ers giving up 27 points in the season finale, but the Steelers did lead the NFL in scoring defense once again in 2011, which was the 3rd time in 4 seasons (2009 being the outlier). Well, I think it goes to four out of five. The Steelers defense may be "old" but just like the Steelers defense in the early 2000s, those older players will be phased out, and history shows that the transition will be smooth. Ziggy Hood is ready to break out, and Cameron Heyward and Steve McClendon are getting their MS in LeBeau-ology as we speak. Their top players are closer to the end than the beginning, but they are still in their primes. The Steelers defense in 2011 was the best in the AFC without Harrison and Woodley for 7 games a piece. They won't be that injured in 2012, and I think Woodley could be one of the better defensive players in the NFL in 2012. He has been slowly getting better each year, and now at 26, can have the first season of what could be a great middle portion of his career.
7.) The Falcons do what they do, win a division despite being the 2nd or 3rd most captivating team.
The Falcons had easily the least interesting offseason of any NFC South Team. The Panthers are close, but they still have Cam in all his glory, and a lot of hype entering 2012. The Buccaneers went out and signed two major free agents in Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks and replaced Raheem Morris with Belichick-neophyte Greg Schaino. The Saints had that little bounty kerfuffle, and will start the season with an interim for their interim. The Falcons, well they sat quietly off of their 24-2 desolate playoff loss to the Giants, and made one move, but it could be huge. A lot of fuss is being made of the Falcons losing Curtis Lofton to the Saints, but their trade for Samuel could be a lot more important. Asante Samuel, by Football Outsiders game charting, has been either the best or second best corner in the NFL the past three seasons. He should excel in that defense, and with Samuel in toe, the Falcons have quietly assembled the best trio of corners in the NFL, with Asante joining Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. I expect Ray Edwards to have a better season in 2012, and that offense is still good. Michael Turner's age and decreased production should be offset by Julio Jones, who showed quite a few flashes of the star he could easily be. The Falcons are just two years off of a 13-3 season. They might not reach those heights, but they probably won't need to to reclaim a division that has, since its creation in 2002, never been defended successfully.
8.) There's a surprise sleeper Wild-Card AFC team, but it isn't one of the two logical choices (Bills or Chiefs).
The most teams that have returned back to the playoffs in the AFC since the new format in 2002 is four, which has happened twice. In 2008, the Titans, Steelers, Colts and Chargers made it back from 2007, and in 2005, the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and Steelers made it back from 2004. This year, I think four teams will make it back. Out of the two that don't, the obvious choice in Cincinnati. Surprise sleepers rarely do all that well the next year (but often rebound in year 3, so 2013 might be nicer for the Bengals). The worst playoff team in the bunch last year was Denver, but they went out and got Peyton. No, I think Baltimore, off of losing Suggs for a long time, will be that second team, and in their and Cincinnati's place will land two of the following: Jets, Raiders, Chargers. The Bills and Chiefs are a little too hyped for my liking. Big moves in FA never really work, and the Chiefs still employ a coach with little track record of success, and a QB who has done little in KC outside of one fluke low-interception year in 2010. The Jets are in that position where the season could easily go 5-11, but they still have a ton of talent. That defense is more versatile now than it was the past two seasons, and Santonio Holmes should be healtheir in 2012. The other two are a pair of AFC West Teams that have nice pieces. The Chargers are still a good bet because they still have one of the three or four best QBs in the AFC. The Raiders have a lot of talent, but little depth. If they stay relatively healthy, they can win 10 games. That could all go away if the starters get hurt at the pace they did last year. The Raiders and Chargers (and Jets) have as much of a chance at the playoffs as the Bills and Chiefs.
9.) Totally Bold, Inane Prediction: Week 17 will be crazy, and it will all end with a little bit of 2011 dejavu on NBC.
Just looking at the Week 17 schedule, almost every game seems potentially interesting. Jets @ Bills could have Wild Card implications, as could Ravens @ Bengals (though I feel the Bengals will take a step back away from Wild Card contention), Bears @ Lions (ditto for the Lions), Panthers @ Saints (although that could easily be for what team will just reach above .500) and maybe even Cardinals @ 49ers (hey, we can dream, right?). That said, there are two potentially massive games, and they both echo the ending of 2011. The first is Raiders @ Chargers. That could easily be for a wild card spot, and it would harken back to Week 17 in 2011, where the Chargers beat the Raiders in Oakland, a game that had the Raiders won, they would have made the playoffs. That said, it would all be an appetizier to what could, and I would put money on this, be the SNF Game: Eagles @ Giants. That could be for the division, much like Cowbooys @ Giants Week 17 last year was. I expect the Giants to win their game, win the division and push the Eagles to another jaunt through the Wild Card rounds.
10.) Both Manning's play in the title games, and mirroring the brother's Harbaugh in 2011, both lose, to the Texans and Bears respectively.
I'll talk more about that Texans and Bears prediction later when I do my conference previews (I did talk about the Texans a little bit in point #4), but I'll talk here about that other part. I've bought into the Broncos, man. I really have. That o-line is just so much better than anything Manning's used since 2006 (of course, he won 13, 12, 14 and 10 games, two MVP awards with those bad lines). His weapons are fine, his running game good. That defense is built to play with a lead. I bought into the Broncos, but just not enough, I guess. There is something that seems too perfect to believe about the Broncos actually winning it all in Year 1. Do I want to believe it? Yes, but I just can't see it. I hope it doesn't end as ignominiously as Favre's Title Game loss in Year 1 in Minnesota, but I think it does have its expiration date, at least as far as 2012 is concerned. As for the Giants, they have a habit of losing playoff games when they are expected to win (against Carolina in 2005 and Philly in 2008), and after what should, in my mind, be a great regular season, most will expect them to win. I think they can get by one game, but I'm not ready to live in a world where Eli Manning has three Super Bowl rings. I think they get two steps away from reaching that place. Archie and Olivia Manning have had so much to cheer for, but giving them the palpable hope of Eli and Peyton's teams squaring off against each other in the Super Bowl in Archie's ol' stomping grounds of New Orleans and then snatching that idea away at the last minute seems like something that is just cruel enough to happen.
Up Next: The AFC Preview
