This is a weird time to do power rankings, and not just because I should use my time to study for Finals (which I mostly am doing - hence the total of zero posts since the draft). It's weird mainly because there is a lockout, and although I am almost sure that no games will be missed (granted, my prediction track record over the past 12 months is piss-poor), with free agency not yet started, the teams as they are constituted today could change in so many ways. For the sake of the power rankings, I am going to assume the following things.
1.) Nnamdi Asomugha does not resign in Oakland - but I will not project him to join a team. The team he does join will get a one spot bump.
2.) Either Carson Palmer/Donovan McNabb/Kevin Kolb are traded to Arizona, and Carson Palmer is not the Bengals starter come Week 1.
3.) Any restricted free agent that has been tendered stays with the current team.
4.) Peyton Manning resigns in Indianapolis (note: I will shave my head for the next year if he doesn't actually resign in Indianapolis)
Anyway, yes, those are a lot of assumptions, especially #3, which in a new CBA could unload a whole bevy of talented players into free agency, but this is the inherent problem in making a power ranking when the future of the NFL is in the hands of the 8th Circuit of Appeals.
The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes Division
The Teams that will be fighting for the 1st overall pick
32.) Carolina Panthers
It's been a long time since the same team had the #1 overall pick two years in a row, and despite Carolina probably being better than 2-14 quality, it might happen to them. The weird thing is they are probably the best worst team in recent memory, with widely defined strengths (rush offense, o-line, pass defense), but glaring weaknesses (pass offense, with a raw, overhyped QB that doesn't seem to be able to immediately produce and average to bad WR talent). This team has problems, and their schedule doesn't help (AFC South, NFC North). Tough, tough times for the Cats.
31.) Denver Broncos
I like John Fox, so most of my unrelenting hatred of this team has pretty much died along with the Josh McDaniels' experience. That said, they aren't a team that is going to contend in 2010, especially in a better division. Getting Elvis Dumervil back is nice, and pairing him with Von Miller should be really good, but that offense. My God, that offense. John Fox isn't an offensive coach, and I don't think anyone in the Elway/Xanders/Fox regime actually thinks Tim Tebow is the future.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars
One of these years, this thing is going to explode. They've gone by with not a lot of talent for years, and although their drafting has been better under Gene Smith than it was during the Shack Harris era, this team still has problems. Their defense was just not good in 2011, and they really were a 5-11 team masquerading at 9-7 somehow. This thing will fall of the rails, especially since Jack Del Rio is still their coach, and that has an expiration date that is quickly approaching.
29.) San Francisco 49ers
Yup, I don't think just because John Harbaugh has been really successful that his brother will be. That team has QB problems, between Alex Smith who really proved that he'll be nothing more than a poor man's Jeff Garcia, and Colin Keapernick, who is not pro-ready at all. Their defense took a large step backwards in 2010, and their o-line also regressed. They have talent deficiencies, and will probably lose a lot more games than they should. That division will help though.
28.) Miami Dolphins
Now I realize why Bill Parcells left Miami so quickly. He doesn't want the blame that will come when this team goes to Holy Hell. I also realize I was an idiot for buying into Chad Henne, who will be a lifelong poor man's Kyle Orton. The Ronnie and Ricky RB Show is past its prime, and their o-line has major problems apart from Jake Long. Brandon Marshall was not a success. This team quietly had a really bad second half of 2010, and I don't think their draft helped much. Tony Sparano should be keeping watch, because I don't think he count on the 2008 Wildcat Fluke team giving him the clout to stay around.
The Team Mired on a Path to Nowhere Division
The teams that aren't bad, but are nowhere near good.
27.) Buffalo Bills
I like Chan Gailey, but he inherited a mess. He's done good work to make it better (in many ways, they were a better team than Miami in 2010. The problem I have is the team is still not addressing the QB position. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a long term answer. Maybe they'll be in the Kolb/McNabb/Palmer sweepstakes. Their running game should be better, but I don't have too much faith. Their defense is good enough to keep the Bills in about half of their games, and they'll do what they always do: go 5-11 or 6-10.
26.) Seattle Seahawks
It's hard to say that the Seahawks will return to reality in 2011, because in reality, the 2010 Seahawks were a 5-11 team that won two extra games and somehow won their division. They have some uncertainty at the QB position, and although Pete Carroll might think that they have the replacement for Hasselbeck there in Whitehurst, the fact that they still are looking for a new QB gives me pause. The Seahaws have a lot of young players, but none of them have seemed to reach their potential, from Kelly Jennings, to Russell Okung to Aaron Curry.
25.) Washington Redskins
Oh, Michael Shanahan. You better hope that this Washington thing turns around, or you might be the next Tom Flores or George Seifert (a two time Super Bowl winner whose horrible run in another city ruined that sheen). They are actually considering going with John Beck as a QB, and that should be sign one that things are going to be horrible. Rex Grossman is their other option, who might be more intriguing due to some odd parallels to Grossman and Jake Plummer who had a really nice run from 2003-2005 with Shanahan, before Shanny inexplicably pulled him for Cutler when the Broncos were 7-4 in 2006. From 2003 until then, the Broncos were 40-19. Since, they are 29-40.
24.) Tennessee Titans
Vince Young might be gone, but that doesn't make them any better. I have no idea who they are planning to play. The current QBs are Rusty Smith, Brett Ratliff and Jake Locker. Good luck winning games with that. Their running game is good, and with Britt and Nate Washington, they have skill position players, so they might be able to drag up the level of the QB. Their defense is still what it always was, a group of talented D-Lineman who makes the rest of the defense play better. Mike Munchak will have a tough task ahead of him, and people may finally realize that Jeff Fisher might have actually been an over-acheiver.
23.) Cincinnati Bengals
I am assuming Carson Palmer is gone, and whether to QB is Andy Dalton (who I like) or Jordan Palmer, or anyone else, they have enough talent to be a frisky bad team. Their defense wasn't as bad as it may have seemed in 2010, and their offense has some potential. Jordan Shipley quietly had a really nice season, and Jermaine Gresham came on late. Jerome Simpson did as well, and AJ Green is a great prospect. Out of all of the teams in this division of teams, they have the most potential, especially if Dalton is the real deal. That said, they are the Bengals.
The Last Year Was a Fluke Division
The Team that won 10 games, and will fall back to reality
22.) Kansas City Chiefs
Yup, this is the only team that qualifies (as Seattle was not playoff-worthy anyway). They rode an insanely east schedule to 10 wins, and proceeded to shit the bed in a playoff performance everyone saw coming. Other than their Week 1 win against San Diego, they didn't beat a single team above .500 other than Jacksonville (one of the few teams more fraudulent than the Chiefs). Matt Cassel was great against Denver and Miami. Their running game might be nice, but the rest of the team inspires no confidence, and Charlie Weis leaving for Florida probably won't help Matt Cassel any.
The Intriguing Wild Card Fodder Division
The teams that if everything break right, might sneak into a wild card spot.
21.) Arizona Cardinals
Again, I am assuming they get either Palmer, Kolb or McNabb, who are all about equal in my book (Palmer being the best, but probably the least likely to actually end up there). This team has everything but a QB. Their defense has a nice array of young players, and older studs like Dockett and Wilson. Their young guys should take a step up in 2011, especially if they have an offense that doesn't put the defense in compromising situations. Their offense's biggest hole is the o-line, but with Max Hall and John Skelton, the pocket presence deficiencies were probably as big of a problem. I like Zona in that division, and they have the pieces. They just need that QB, and they'll get him, since Arizona is an attractive place to go.
20.) Cleveland Browns
Call me a believer in this teams ability to approach .500. I like Colt McCoy. More than that, I like his ability to play in Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense. That team has a lot of players on defense that play well enough to limit opposition. They have a good young secondary. They need more weapons on offense, but Peyton Hillis was no fluke and Mohammad Massaquoi continues to improve. With Carson Palmer gone, I think they will leapfrog the Bengals in that division. If they were in the NFC West, they could challenge for the division.
19.) Minnesota Vikings
I doubt they let Christian Ponder start right away, but I doubt it matters much. This is basically what the Vikings were from 2005-2008, before Favre came in and for one year worked wonders. They are a good team in a lot of areas. Adrian Peterson rebounded to have a great year in 2010, and their defense is still in the better half of the NFL. They should get more out of second year corener Chris Cook, and they need guys like Brian Robison to step up in place of an almost certainly gone Ray Edwards.
The Last Year Wasn't a Fluke Division
The teams that all year people thought were flukes, but really have a solid foundation and will be great come 2013.
18.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everyone thought the Bucs were a hollow 2-0 team after that start last year, and big blowout losses to the Saints and Steelers early reaffirmed that fact...... until the somehow won 10 games despite never having a winning streak of more than two games all year long (which I don't need Elias Sports Bureau to tell me is something that probably hasn't happened in my lifetime). If not for a hard overtime loss to the Lions in Week 15, they go 11-5, the Packers don't make the playoffs, and Ben Roethlisberger has another Super Bowl ring. And they did all that without either of their first two picks (tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price) doing much do to injury. Without any pass rush, they held opponents to under 20 a game. They probably are a year away, but this team is for real. Josh Freeman is for real, and very soon the Bucs will be a power.
17.) St. Louis Rams
Improving to 7-9 isn't a great thing, unless the season before you were 1-15 and were starting a rookie QB. The Rams have all the pieces that are hard to get: franchise QB in Bradford, solid LT in Saffold, mauling defensive front in the resurgent Chris Long among others. They have good corner play. They have a coach who can scheme and coach up that defense like no other. They just need more weapons for Bradford to play with. Well, they attempted to do that, by picking a tight end in round two and two nice slot-type receivers in rounds 3-4, and with the return of Donnie Avery, the Rams might actually have a nice little nucleus of weapons. They, like the Bucs, are set up beautifully.
The Teams That Could Put it Together or Could Bomb Division
The teams that have the talent to have strong seasons and play into mid-January, but also have enough combustible parts to falter into 6-10 territory.
16.) Dallas Cowboys
Ah yes, those Cowboys. Yes, Tony Romo is coming back, but surprisingly, I don't think that makes them that much better. Jon Kitna played rather well in relief of Romo, and the offense wasn't the problem. That defense was utter shit in 2010. They couldn't cover anyone. There is noise they might go after Asomugha, which would help, but it is still a mess. They don't have anyone at safety worth a damn. Mike Jenkins was awful in 2010. Some say it was a fluke, but he was bad in 2008, so maybe him being good in 2009 was the fluke. That said, the offense is still explosive, and they were an 8-8 team that played 5-11 in 2010. They could further implode if Romo is what he normally is and they don't sign Asomugha, but they have a shot to get back in the playoff picture.
15.) Houston Texans
I'm happy they gave Kubiak another year, because the offense was actually better in 2010 than it was in 2009. The defense was atrocious, but that is not really Kubiak's fault. I like the Wade move, because Wade Phillips can coach defense as good as anyone else, but they just aren't built for a 3-4. Mario Williams is a beast as a 4-3 DE, and I'm not sure how he'll be used and how effective he will be. DeMeco Ryans will also have to learn a new position. They still need corner help (Asomugha? Haven't heard his name in connection there but it makes sense). Their defense is a huge question mark. If Wade works, they could threaten for a Wild Card spot. If it doesn't, they might be in trouble, and I don't think Kubiak has one more reappearance act in him.
14.) Oakland Raiders
Yes, I am a believer, but I'm not that crazy enough that I can still say that this team could really dissappoint, or it could go for a Wild Card. They are clearly in my mind the second best team in the AFC West. Jason Campbell really played well at the end of 2010, and Darren McFadden played well throughout 2010. Their draftee running back Taiwan Harris is supposedly as fast as his name is cool. Their receivers were starting to gel. However, the brightest spot is that defense. Sure, Aso might leave, but accross the board, the Raiders got great production from their safeties, and #2 corner Stanford Routt had a great year. Their d-line is among the league's best at rushing the passer, as Tommy Kelly, Trevor Scott, Matt Shuaghnessy, Richard Seymour combine to force a beautiful pass-rush by committee unit that led the team to 47 sacks. The Raiders are really talented. They also have a tough schedule outside the division, but they can do it.
13.) Chicago Bears
I think they could play about where they played last year and go about 9-7. Of course, if the o-line imrpoves as it should, Cutler will get more time and they could get better on offense. Their defense is still very good, but it will be interesting to see if Peppers is as motivated year 2 of his contract, and if Briggs and Urlacher can play as well as they both did in 2010. The big question is can they stay as amazingly healthy again. The Bears were probably the team with the fewest injuries, and that is something that usually doesn't stay constant year to year. Injuries could derail a team that is in a really tough division.
The Young Talented Teams Division
The two teams that have loads of young talent, and are about one year away from putting it all together. They just lack a couple things to make the top 10.
12.) Atlanta Falcons
Nice team, and this trade for Julio Jones will either make them or break them. Sure, they gave up a lot, and sure, if they probably could have traded for Andrew Johnson for all that they gave up, but that is a move that could potentially make this team a true superpower for the next six years. What makes me nervous is that they are a team that does everything average to well, but nothing bad and nothing great. Matt Ryan is a nice player, but he can't take over games the way Rodgers did. Their defense is good, but it will never shut anyone down. They still are a good team, but I think they need more impact players, and Julio Jones could be just that. They need one for that defense though.
11.) Detroit Lions
The only thing they really need is for Matthew Stafford to stay healthy. Everything else is there. Their defense got immensely better in year two under Jim Schwartz, who not only coached up Ndamukong Suh, but got something out of former 1st round pick Lawrence Jackson and journeyman Cliff Avril. They have a beast d-line that will only get better with Nick Fairley. Their offense is loaded with skill players, and if rookie Titus Young comes in and contributes, they actually have a really nice group of weapons, which gets better if Mikel LeShoure is as good as he can be. Matthew Stafford just HAS to stay healthy.
The Just-One-Level Behind Division
The two teams that look great on paper, and have track records of success, but I just possibly cannot see holding that Silver Lombardi trophy come February.
10.) New York Jets
Their defense was incredible in the playoffs, but regressed in the regular season in 2010 from its amazing level of play in 2009. Their pass defense is what fell, as their pass rush deteriorated even more. That area needs to improve in 2011. Their offense is fine, but they have days where they can't do anything. Mark Sanchez should get better, but even then, they are a level behind the other major AFC teams.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles
I just can't see a team led by Mike Vick actually winning a Super Bowl. They have an explosive offense, which rivals anything the McNabb era did. Vick possibly can't throw as few interceptions as he did in 2010, but even then, his ability to read defenses and be accurate has greatly improved in the second life of his career. Their defense is still living on the memory and reputation of Jim Johnson, as it has been just average for two straight seasons. Their defense just isn't championship ready, and they aren't doing too much in the draft to really fix that.
The Super Bowl Contender Division
The teams that have it all together, and if a couple things break their way will be holding that Silver Lombardi come February.
8.) New York Giants
Their running game needs to get back to 2009, 2008 levels if they want to make a real run. Just by their injuries returning back to league average and Manning not having so many tipped interceptions, they should be a playoff team. They honestly were better than the Eagles in 2010, but just lost a fluke game against them. Their o-line has regressed a bit, but that is more with age. Their young guys have played well. Their defense needs better play out of their linebackers, and secondary, but that should be fixed with fewer injuries.
7.) New England Patriots
Yup, I'm still the same Patriots hater. Most Patriots fans use the logic that they went 14-2 with a young team last year, and they should stand to just get better, but that has a serious problem. They overacheived a shit load in 2010. Their offense cannot possibly play that well again. Tom Brady cannot possibly go 300+ passes in a row without a pick. The team cannot possibly have just 10 turnovers next year. And if their offense does fall off as it almost has to, there will be problems, as that defense showed it really didn't make any real improvement. Other than the Jets game, the Patriots supposed defensive improvement was built on playing bad teams (Miami and Buffalo to finish the season). They still gave up 26 to Pittsburgh, 28 to the Colts, 24 to the Lions and 27 to a Rodgers-less Packers team in their long winning streak. They are still a good team, but there is no way they go 14-2 again.
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers
Runner ups recently have done better than defending champions. In that a runner up has actually won a playoff game in the last 5 years (while the last Super Bowl Champion to win a playoff game the next year was the 2005 Pats, who won their Wild Card game). That defense is still great, but they didn't really get any help for their corners. Their ability to play still great defense despite not having great corners was amazing, but it can't last. Troy also looked really old and a step slower late in 2010. Their offense should get better, but I still worry about that o-line, as their best player in an unrestricted free agent.
5.) Indianapolis Colts
Here's my thinking. They had a great offense in 2010 with Manning having an off year (although apart from that horrendous three game stretch he had a good year), and them missing Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez for long stretches of time, and with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown rotating in and out of the ER. Their defense struggled a lot, but they had as much injuries, as by the playoffs the #1, #2 corners were both out and they were down to their fifth string SS. They cannot be that injured again, and with the o-line draft picks, the o-line should be better. Their offense should be great. Their defense should be a bit better. I think the Colts defense will be their downfall, but it should be a fun ride.
4.) New Orleans Saints
I love this team heading into 2010. Drew Brees threw way too many picks, which probably won't happen again, and their receivers and backs were shuffling in and out of the lineup. Unlike the Colts, their offense fell off a bit, but also unlike the Colts, the Saints defense took a huge step up. The Saints defense was legitimately really good in 2010, and didn't get all the lucky turnovers they got in 2009. Their run defense was great. Their pass defense was great. The addition of Cameron Jordan should only help this. The Saints have a team that is perfectly set up to return to the level of the bye-teams in 2011.
The Super Bowl Favorites Division
The two best challengers to the Green Bay throne, and the teams that have it all together and can easily go 13-3 or 14-2.
3.) Baltimore Ravens
I shouldn't like them this much. They are aging on defense. Their offense fell a bit in 2010. Joe Flacco has never really done anything to earn the credit he gets. That said, I still love this team. They play so well, never getting blown out, staying in every game. Their defense is still really good, and they get the additional addition of Sergio Kindle, and new first round pick Jimmy Smith, who has immense talent but needs the right direction. Well, Ray Lewis will put him in the right direction. Getting Jared Gaither back healthy also will help a run game that lagged a bit in 2010. I also think that the addition of Torrey Smith, and the return of Donte Stallworth makes their offense better, as does the improvement of their two young tight ends. I just like this team.
2.) San Diego Chargers
On the other hand, I hate this team, mainly because I fear them to all hell. Philip Rivers is amazing, although he's yet to play great in the playoffs except for one half game against the Colts in 2007. Their offense was great in 2010 despite missing Vincent Jackson for little time and Rivers' throwing to guys like Seyi Ajiratutu and Patrick Crayton. Just unbelievable. I don't think Ryan Mathews is any good, but he should be better. The amazing thing is how good that defense was in 2010, and without any real name players except for the resurgent Shaun Phillips. If Bob Sanders gives them anything, then look out. They should have been 12-4 in 2010. Their special teams cannot possibly be as bad again. They are loaded. Again. In previous years they probably shouldn't have earned the title of most talented team in the league. I don't know if they do now, but they certainly earn the title of scariest.
The Defending Champ Who Won't Get Knocked Off Until he Loses Division
The Champs..... 'Nuff Said
1.) Green Bay Packers
They are the champs. They get the crown for now. Aaron Rodgers is sensational. That defense probably won't get that level from Charles Woodson again, and the loss of Cullen Jenkins will be felt, but they are still loaded everywhere except for o-line, and even that is servicable. The Packers are the champs, and until they lose, or until Aaron Rodgers has some massive injury, they will be the top ranked team.
'Till Next Time
