Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Not going to spend much time here. I'm a fan of defensive football (despite me liking the Colts), and teh Steelers are the best defense in the NFL. They have the best rush defense by far. They ahve the best pass rush in the NFL. They have a hall of famer at safety, and a corner playing hot (Ike Taylor). The Packers also had a great defense, but they played a much softer schedule. That said, forget the matchups. The Super Bowl is often about emotion. The Colts matched up really well with the Saints last year. Look how that turned out. No, the Super Bowl is about will.
The Packers are getting much love. Despite being a 6th seed in the weaker conference and barely holding off a 3rd string QB in the NFC Championship Game, they come in as favorites in the Super Bowl. The Steelers have an experienced team who's nucleus won the Super Bowl just two years ago. They have a quarterback who is 10-2 in the playoffs. They have the league's best defense and beat a better team more convincingly in the Championship Game than Green Bay did. So why exactly are the Packers favored? This isn't like 2005, when the 6th seeded Steelers were favorites against the Seahawks. No, the Steelers were in the far tougher conference and dominated a 14-3 Broncos team in Denver. This is different. This makes no sense.
Much of it is probably due to the Aaron Rodgers hype (again, despite a mediocre if not bad performance in the title game). People say "Rodgers in a dome.... this is perfect." And this idea is mainly built off their 48-21 beatdown of top-seeded Atlanta in the divisional round. However, and this is key, the Falcons defense, in the words of Bart Scott, "cannot stop a nosebleed." The Steelers are the toughest test the Packers will face on defense in the entire playoffs, more so than the Bears (and scoring 14 points, and none on offense in the second half, isn't exactly passing the test). Aaron Rodgers started 10 games this season, including the playoffs, against defenses in the top-half of the league. Here are his numbers.
Wk 1 @ PHI (W: 27-20) 19-31 181 yds 2 tds 2 ints
Wk 3 @ CHI (L: 17-20) 34-45 316 yds 1 td 1 int
Wk 5 @ WAS (L: 13-16) 27-46 292 yds 1 td 1 int
Wk 6 vs MIA (L: 20-23) 18-33 313 yds 1 td 1 int
Wk 8 @ NYJ (W: 9-0) 15-34 170 yds 0 tds 0 ints
Wk 16 vs NYG (W: 45-17) 25-37 404 yds 4 tds 0 ints
Wk 17 vs CHI (W: 10-3) 19-28 227 yds 1 td 1 int
WC @ PHI (W: 21-16) 18-27 180 yds 3 tds 0 ints
CON @ CHI (W: 21-14) 17-30 244 yds 0 tds 2 ints
His total stat line: 192-311 for 2329 yds and 13 tds and 8 ints for a passer rating of 89.4, which compared to his season one of 101.4 is not great. If you take out that win over the Giants, who showed no interest on offense or defense in playing that game, it becomes 167-274 for 1925 yds with 9 tds and 9 ints for a passer rating of 80.9. That won't cut it, especially since Pittsburgh's defense is better than all of those.
Another line I hear a lot is "the Packers can spread out the Steelers like the Patriots did." Wrong. What the Patriots did that day was special. Brady was on fire, and more importantly, the Pats were able to run the ball. You have to be able to spread the Steelers out and still run on them to make that work, and the Packers with their flaccid running game coupled with the Steelers great rush defense that is on a roll right now makes that a hard proposition. I don't see the Packers having nearly the same amount of success that the Patriots did back in Week 10.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers can run on the Packers. Most teams can. Michael Turner didn't but the Eagles did and the Bears did. Also, when these two teams met last year, Roethlisberger shredded them. Of course, Rodgers shredded the Steelers as well, but that game was played without Troy Polamalu and Bryant McFadden (with Ryan Mundy and some random corner instead), while the Packers defense is largely the same. I like the Steelers on that side of the ball to have some success, or more properly, enough success.
I don't want to see Roethlisberger get hailed as a "winner" or whatever when he wins his third Super Bowl. In fact, if he does win that third, it can go in two ways. Either the media analysts will feel skeptical to put him on the same level as Manning (rightfully so) and devalue the rings argument in judging QBs, or they will go the opposite way and shove a guy who was up for debate as the greatest ever before Super Bowl XLIV into 3rd position. Either way, I would still rather see the Steelers win. They have the right mix of force, swagger and balls. They are the team that I wish I could root for (too late to start). They have the defense, the tough QB, and they are a bit undervalued.
The Pick............................................
Steelers 27 Packers 20 (PIT)
