Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 29: Season Ending SNF Games, Pt. 1 (2006 - 2013)

When NBC took over Sunday Night Football in the 2006 season, and basically made SNF into the main feature game of the week, we also got flexible scheduling and the ability to nominate any Week 17 game to the final SNF spot - or more succinctly, the final regular season game of the year. So often, these games have come near Christmas and New Year's (no more, with the 17-game, 18-week seasons). And so often, they've been great games that bring up great memories in my life given how often we've traveled during these holiday times.

2006 - Dec 31st: Chicago Bears - 7  @  Green Bay Packers - 26

Significance: None - not sure why this was not flexed out....

Where Was I: New Year's Eve Party at a Family Friends place

The Game: Admittedly an auspicious start for this idea. I'm trying to figure out if the flex scheduling wasn't a thing yet in 2006, or if there was just nothing better. I believe the Packers theoretically had a chance at the #6 seed coming into the week but by kickoff they were eliminated. The Bears were locked into the #1 seed weeks prior, but actually played in this meaningless game and was exceptionally bad, going 2-12 with 3 INTs and a 0.0 passer rating. Of course he would remain the starter playing ok enough to not kill the Bears chances to make the Super Bowl. The game would also be recalled, probably untruthfully so, as a bit of a springboard for the 2007 Packers team that went 13-3.

The Memory: I was at a family friend's place for New Year's Eve, and I distinctly remember watching this game, or at least having it playing on their TV in the upstairs where we were probably playing floor hockey or something. I remember being amused at how bad Rex Grossman was and how people pilloried him for playing like crap in a game that meant less than nothing. Granted, Grossman was just bad in general, but his poor play here absolutely did not carry over.

2007 - Dec 30th: Tennessee Titans - 16  @  Indianapolis Colts - 10

Significance; The Titans got the #6 seed in the AFC, where if they lost Cleveland would've made the playoffs

Where Was I: At home, pretty sure

The Game: Honestly, looking back it really was a rocky start (though things would get going soon). Here only the Titans cared about this game, and the Colts were more than happy to lay down and rest their starters (as they did constantly in the Manning/Polian era). The Titans still barely won the game, getting the #6 seed where they would fall meekly to the Chargers. The Browns were the real losers here, as their shocking 10-win season was for naught.

The Memory: Again, I have no real recollection of the actual game, as me like I'm sure many, checked out when it was clear the Colts would pull their starters. If anything, the real takeaway was the maddening "rest vs. rust" stuff that happened every time the Colts did this. of course, 2007 would be a great test case - the Colts did end up losing their playoff opener against the Chargers, but also Manning completed his first 16 passes in the game, so they definitely weren't "rusty".

2008 - Dec 28th: Denver Broncos - 21  @  San Diego Chargers - 52

Significance: Winner would win the AFC West, loser get's eliminated

Where Was I: Orlando, Florida at Main Street Disney

The Game: Three weeks prior, the Broncos were 8-5 and the Chargers were 5-8. The Chargers were a far better team even at that point, but the Broncos had that division (and Cutler and Shanahan). The Broncos sputtered, but the Chargers needed an onside recovery in Week 15 to stay alive and got what they wanted. One shot at the division. It wasn't close - the Chargers proved their superiority.

The Memory: We were in Florida that Christmas, which was from about 2002 - 2008 a common occurrence that hasn't repeated since. This year we went to Orlando, but mostly for shopping and other things instead of the parks. But on this day, we went to Downtown Disney for dinner. As a Colts fan that was locked in to playing the winner of this game, I was rooting so hard for the Broncos, because as they showed in this game they were way worse than the Chargers. I didn't really catch much of the game, it being ona couple of TV screens in the restaurant a good ways away - but I just knew after the Chargers pulled it out, that they would give the Colts a real good game, if not beat them outright (which they did). Such was the life of a, relatively, tortured Manning fan. My better memory of this Week 17 was watching the days slate in our hotel room while my family was out shopping - watching the Eagles pound the Cowboys by an orgnasmic 44-6. It was that type of day.

2009 - Jan 3rd: Cincinnati Bengals - 0  @  New York Jets - 37

Significance: Jets got the #5 seed with the win, would've missed playoffs (Steelers make it) had they lost

Where Was I: At home, pretty sure

The Game: I promise, a majoriy of these were good. Here the Bengals half-heartedly played their starters. They had clinched the division, and while technically they could have gotten the #3 seed, they deicded that #3 vs. #4 distinction was rather meaningless. The Jets pounded them and sneaked into the playoffs winning two straight games against resting teams. That type of year.

The Memory: Again, no real memory here. I went into this game more of the approach of a Colts fan smugly sitting wth the #1 seed, very much fine with the Jets sneaking into the playoffs. Sure, I would've liked that Bengals team which was pretty fun to follow that year (a bunch of comeback wins and great performances) to take the #3 seed over the Patriots, but in the end, I didn't fear the Jets, so letting them in the palyoffs instead of Pittsburgh felt fine.

2010 - Jan 2nd: St. Louis Rams - 6  @  Seattle Seahawks - 16

Significance: Winner would win the NFC West (with a losing record....), loser gets eliminated

Where Was I: India

The Game: Before it became a bit commonplace to see sub-.500 division winners, we saw a 7-8 Rams team, fresh off the #1 pick in the draft the year before go to a 6-9 Seahawks team. Charlie Whitehurst started the game for an injured Matt Hasselbeck, and played reasonably well. The Seahawks leaned on a defense that had a few of the first building blocks that would become the Legion of Boom, as they held the Rams to under 200 yards and won the game without too much fuss.

The Memory: I did not watch this game, being in India for my cousin's wedding. By June 2nd, we were traveling on our way to Mangalore (my parent's, and my ancestral, hometown), going there for the first time in 10 years. It was an emotional day for all other reasons than football. I do remember a bit of the outcry after the game - again this was the first time we had a sub-.500 division winner in the 32-team era. People immediately started saying there should be a .500 requirement to qualify and all this. Of course, a week later the 7-9 Seahawks would defeat the Saints in a crazy game (with Matt Hasselbeck back starting), and make a lot of the noise moot. It was a simpler time.

2011 - Jan 1st: Dallas Cowboys - 14  @  New York Giants - 31

Significance: Winner would win the NFC East, loser gets eliminated

Where Was I: At home, watching it live

The Game: The Cowboys led the NFC East much of the season, but a close loss to the Giants three weeks earlier in Dallas, and the Giants beating the Jets off a 99-yard TD by Victor Cruz, set up this win and your in match. In this one, the Giants did all the things that would then repeat themselves week over week through their Super Bowl win. Eli was great, the defense sacked Romo 6 times, they could run the ball when they needed to. It was a total ass whipping.

The Memory: 2011 was an odd season. There were a bunch of interesting storylines around the league (the 15-1 Packers, the Passing Explosion, the Harbaugh 49ers) but Manning's injury soured much of the year. This was a really nice "turn the page" moment ahead of what was a pretty great playoffs. I remember really just soaking up how much the New York crowd loved that game. One particular memory is seared in my brain. Following a Giants TD (either the one that put them up 21-0, or put them up 31-14), it was pretty clear the Giants wree going to win, and they played "Bang on the Drum All Day" and the crowd was singing along, air-banging on air-drums and all the rest, and it was just a great atmosphere. There's been so few of them for either New York team since opening MetLife in 2010, but this definitely was one.

2012 - Dec 30th: Dallas Cowboys - 18  @  Washington Team - 28

Significance: Winner would win the NFC East, loser gets eliminated

Where Was I: At home, watching it live

The Game: In maybe the peak of the RGIII era, he and Alfred Morris ran over hte Cowboys and took the NFC East with their 7th straight win. The good times wouldn't last too long, with RGIII tearing his knee the next week and things going to hell thereafter. It was Alfred Morris who really shone here with 200 yards. Tony Romo had three interceptions, and the Cowboys lost their second straight win and your in game. 

The Memory: The 2012 season was for me the opposite of 2011 - I was uber-invested with the return of Peyton. It ended on a high as well, me foolishly thinking the Broncos were a lock for at least the AFC Title Game, blindly sitting down and watching this one. My neighbor at the time was a really good friend of mine, and his brother was a die-hard Washington fan. He kept reminding me to no end that I had basically picked against them each week in their six game win streak leading into the Week 17 game. To make his heart full, I picked against them again (granted, up to that point, Dallas was probably the "better" team) and it worked as expected. 

2013 - Dec 29th: Philadelphia Eagles - 24  @  Dallas Cowboys - 22

Significance: Same stakes at 2011 and 2012

Where was I: In a Hyatt resort in Maryland with my family

The Game: For the third straight year, the Cowboys lost a win-and-your-in game. They completed the trifecta, losing to Philly after losing to both New York and Washington in the two years prior. This time the game was even at home, but it didn't matter. It wasn't Romo's fault this time, as Kyle Orton had to start for Romo who had a back injury. Orton threw for 350 yards, but two interceptions and the Cowboys missed a 2-pt conversion with 3:50 to go that would've tied the game. Nick Foles in the midst of what we all assumed would be a career highlight-type heater, was 17-26 with 2 TDs and the Eagles under Chip Kelly earned the NFC East.

The Memory: We as a family rarely take "just relax" vacations, but there's a Hyatt Resort somewhere near Annapolis, that we went to a couple of times - normally for the period between Christmas and New Year's. This was one of those times. It was a calm period - with us usually lazing around the resort, making a trip to a nearby town for dinner, and some nice craft beers and the like. It was during this few days of bliss that we were playing rummy as a family with a TV nearby in the hotel common area showing the game. I was half watching the game, half playing my game, but it was a success on both counts. The game itself was really close, had some nice drama, and was a great cap to the regular season (another fun regular season for me what with Peyton setting all kinds of offense records), and for once in our family games of rummy, I dominated.

NFL 2023: Week 15 Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-12  (197-341)
31.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-10  (230-331)

30.) Washington Commanders  =  4-9  (261-395)
29.) New England Patriots  =  3-10  (169-272)

The bottom of the league has pretty much separated itself into this nice quadro. The Cardinals and Patriots won recently, both in Pittsburgh which is nice, but what that really does it make it glaringly likely that they get the #1 pick. The Panthers need a hard reset, I honestly wonder if they're better off just sitting Bryce Young. For the others, the Cardinals have easily the most upward mobility, even if they keep Kyler. I still beleive in the coaching staff. The other two coaching staffs are dead men walking at this point - as even I've come over to the side that I find it more likely than not that this is it for Belichick in New England.

28.) New York Giants  =  5-8  (183-314)

27.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-8  (202-259)

26.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-8  (282-282)

25.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-8  (241-282)

This foursome is so far better than the prior four it is laughable, especially with the Giants getting Tommy DeVito magic at the moment. He actually looked like a solid QB, throwing in rhythm, in that win over the Packers. So good to see them unfazed by the crazy Barkley fumble. The Raiders defense remains weirdly better than the poor offense that has seen Aiden O'Connell fall super sharply back to earth. The Chargers are here because I assume Herbert doesn't come back and this is a lost season that ends with a new coach. They need to uncover some better young players around Herbert as this trumped up roster is looking super shallow at this point. The Titans had a great win, Levis looked poised, if not suiper accurate. The defense had its best games in weeks. They're way too far out of things to challegne seriously. What they will do is likely decide the AFC South, with both Texans games and hosting the Jags left on the calendar.

24.) New York Jets  =  5-8  (201-257)
23.) Chicago Bears  =  5-8  (270-309)

The two teams with some upward mobility even if this season is lost. We saw something real from Zach Wilson in that game. He's not the future in New York anyway, but him stabilizing and the Jets ending at 7-10 or so probably keeps Saleh around which I think is for the best. Yes we can blame them for not having a better backup strategy than Wilson - but the people that are like "They could've had Josh Dobbs" and such are insane. For the Bears, they are exciting right now, mainyl because Fields finally looks competent. That offense is working. We've had these mini-runs before with guys like Trubisky in past, so I don't want to go too extreme, but very promising signs.

22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-7  (251-269)

21.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-6  (210-250)

20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-7  (262-270)

Man there is such dreck in this 6-7/7-6 stretch. The bottom to me are three teams that are flattered by their record. Ridder is just not a capable enough QB to drive a playoff team. Mayfield is largely the same, but teh talent is enough elsewhere - and more than anything the coaching staff uses that talent well, like Mike Evans. For the Steelers, these past two games are just harrowing. They don't deserve to be a playoff team, especially now with Trubisky starting for a bit, but losing two homes games to 2-10 teams is just startlingly bad. 

19.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-7  (280-318)

18.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  7-6  (280-287)

17.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-6  (314-330)s t
16.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-7  (280-267)

I don't know for sure if these four teams are better than the three prior, or are worse than the three to come. I'm  just annoyed at how little striation there is this year. The Seahawks would normally get a pass for being without Geno, but they were in trouble ahead of that based on recent performances. That defense has been poor for some time now. The Bengals renaissance with Jake Browning is fun, but that schedule is tough here on out (aside from a Steelers game). I just can't believe that Jake Browning will lead what clearly still is a talented team to the playoffs. Replace "Jake Browning" with "Gardner Minshew" and the same holds true for the Colts. To me the Colts main goal these last four weeks is seeing if they can get a bit more consistency from their line play. So high variance all season long. For the Packers, a very tough loss to a game Giants team, but Love still looked to have good rhythm with his players. LaFleur's offense with Love is settling in nicely, even if they have one too many losses this year to crack through.

15.) New Orleans Saints  =  6-7  (285-261)

14.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-6  (266-242)

13.) Denver Broncos  =  7-6  (287-309)

These last three are tough for me. They have quite high upsides, with the Saints defense + Olave being able to put together super strong stretches, to the Vikings skill platyers doing the same. the Broncos have cooled down the last couple weeks, but even there is a team on defense that has really coalesced so well under Vance Joseph these past few weeks. Likely 1-2 of these teams will make the playoffs. Other than me picking the Broncos to sneak in preseason, I don't particularly want any of teh three to, but they all have higher upsides than that batch above it.

12.) Houston Texans  =  7-6  (287-279)
11.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-7  (299-290)
10.) Cleveland Browns  =  8-5  (289-272)

These top-12 do break 6/6 AFC & NFC. They would be my perfect playoff field. Now, they can't be because an NFC South team has to be in. But anyway. The Texans obviously had a very notable bump in teh road, but a light schedule going forward, and their recent track record prior to that Jets game still give me confidence. They just laid an egg. It happens. The Rams really should be a playoff team. There is a bevy of 6-7 teams in the NFC - two of which will make it as wild cards. I truly hope the Rams are one of those, as watching Stafford's renaissance with Kupp and Nacua has just been awesome all year. The Browns are probably far enough ahead of the 7-6 muk to make it - especially with a lighter schedule down the stretch. Like many of these AFC teams in wild card position, their games against other wild card foes - here being @ Houston and @ Cicninnati will be huge. That defense is too good for Flacco to play them out of games - acknowledging so far he's been far better than that low bar.

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  8-5  (312-290)

8.) Detroit Lions  =  9-4  (340-314)

Yeah, I wish I knew what to think of these two. Three weeks ago they were riding super high, but a 1-2 stretch for the Lions (with the one win being not super impressive), and two straight losses for the Jags, have really cooled things. Both Lawrence and Goff are too much requiring rhythm to really keenly excel at this point. That stability hasn't been there in recent weeks adn their defenses which were both playing above level to date have cooled off also at the wrong time. They've stacked enough wins to be clearly in playoff position, so we have to hope they can take this last month to revert back to form.

7.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-6  (348-244)

6.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  8-5  (292-228)

5.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-3  (342-321)
4.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-4  (411-294)

What an interesting trio. If you picked two of these teams to play tomorrow, the Bills may be the favorite but those completely blown losses to the Jets, Patriots, Broncos are going to harm them so much if they can't win out. They may be able to sneak in at 10-7 but they would lose a slew of tiebreakers. The team is just too talented though. The Chiefs actually made me feel slightly better about themselves in that game - moviung the ball consistently, Kelce having a big game. The margin for error is just too small right now, especially with an OL that regressed significantly. For the Eagles, two straight big losses to their two prime challengers are very concerning. Mostly concerning to me is the DL's propensity to go quiet way too often. Apart from the fumble-six - they were silent all of that Cowboys game. And for the Dolphins, in a way I'm glad they lost. They didn't deserve teh win that they were handed by the two fumbles the Titans gave them. The top-end of the league is too short right now to truly worry about them, but other teams will absolutely study the way the Titans were able to mix rushes and stunt their way to consistent pressure.

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-3  (421-233)

The only thing keeping me from having the Cowboys be seemingly equal to those top two is wanting to see a little bit more than just the one Eagles beatdown of a good team. Admittedly that's a super specific and unneeded line and distinction to draw. Dak is playing great. The weapons are working. The pass rush has been reborn last couples weeks. Everything is humming in Dallas, except for their scheduling being way tougher than Philadelphia's on the way out.

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  10-3  (361-218)

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  10-3  (380-205)

My top two are unchanged. Obvious in the case of the 49ers that dominated their way to another easy win. Purdy even threw an INT and was unfazed by it. The 49ers are playing with such a huge margin for error right now. I do wonder what happens if and when they play a team with a front good enough to get pressure on Purdy more consistently than any of their recent ones have. For the Ravens, they avoided another blown lead, but this was more about the Rams playing at their level. The offense is so in sync right now with Lamar - especially with OBJ having a good game for once. If these two were to meet in the Super Bowl, it wouild be a special game.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.)

2.)
3.)
4.)
5.)

6.)

7.)

NFC

1.)
2.)

3.)

4.)

5.)

6.)

7.)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)  (Thu - Prime)

15.) Atlanta Falcons (6-7)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-12)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) San Francisco 49ers (10-3)  @  Arizona Cardinals (3-10)  (4:05 - CBS)

13.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)  @  New England Patriots (3-10)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Washington Commanders (4-9)  @  Los Angeles Rams (6-7)  (4:05 - CBS)

11.) Chicago Bears (5-8)  @  Cleveland Browns (8-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New York Giants (X-X)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Houston Texans (7-6)  @  Tennessee Titans (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New York Jets (5-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (7-6)  (Sat, 4:30 - NFLNet)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)  (Sat, 1:00 - NFLNet) 
4.) Denver Broncos (7-6)  @  Detroit Lions (9-4)  (Sat, 8:15 - NFLNet)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-7)  (MNF - ESPN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (10-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)  (SNF - NBC)
1.) Dallas Cowboys (10-3)  @  Buffalo Bills (7-6)  (4:25 - FOX)

NFL 2023: Week 14 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Too Bad To Warrant Much Thought" Duo

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-11  (191-313)

31.) New England Patriots  =  2-10  (148-254)

The Panthers firing their coach didn't really help all that much. They played better I guess, but to me that is more of just how bad the NFC South is that the game was still close. Bryce Young at this point should see ending this season without injury as a major win, and just get ready to helpfully try more and be better next year. For the Patriots - it is staggering how far this has fallen on offense. The defense has given up 26 points over the last three games - and they're 0-3. The defense is still good but every week that goes by the writing on teh wall becomes clearer and clearer about the future of Belichick. The only good thing is they are so bad that they have a clear view of a Top-2 pick now.

Tier II - The "Just Plain Bad" Quadro

30.) Washington Commanders  =  4-9  (261-395)
29.) New York Giants  =  4-8  (159-292)

28.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-10  (230-331)

27.) Chicago Bears  =  4-8  (242-296)

The Commanders may have fired Ron Rivera by the time I post this (currently writing on Sunday Night). The defense has become a true joke, which is shocking given as even at his worst in Carolina the defense was always respectable. For the Commanders, they need a full reset. The Giants bye came at a decent time - will be super interesting to see if they stick with cult hero Tommy DeVito or go back to Tyrod. I hope they keep DeVito. I mean what's the point of Tyron for them? The Cardinals have generally avoided the trap I see a lot of taems like them enter the 2nd half of a season where they lost a lot of competitive games. Usually it all collapses inward, but for them they've remained frisky. The Bears have to hope the bye week doesn't ruin what little momentum they seemed to have in the last couple games. Fields is looking slightly better, but I still think Eberflus won't make it past this season.

Tier III - The "Just Plain Not-As-Bad" Quadro

26.) New York Jets  =  4-8  (171-251)
25.) Tennessee Titans  =  4-8  (213-253)

24.) XXXXXXXXX

23.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-7  (202-256)

The Jets defense is admirable, but the offense is just hellish. I don't know if any team will have as interesting a first month of the offseason. Do they just decide to give everyone a mulligan because of the Rodgers injury. This defense is very good but can that be enough to give them another go? For the Titans, I think we reach the end of the Vrabel tenure also. Levis hasn't really shone and while they are generally well coached I do worry about his development under Vrabel's regime. XXXXXXXXXXX. For the Raiders, the sheen on the Pierce era has worn off. Aiden O'Connell is interesting enough and the energy under Pierce is still there, but the taletn deficiency on defense is just tough to overcome.

Tier IV - The "Same As Last Year, But No Brady" Trio

22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-7  (233-245)
21.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-7  (257-255)
20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-6  (226-240)

The NFC South was a joke last year, given some undeserved credibility because of Brady's presence - despite him being fairly average himself last year. Well, take away Brady and the division is basically what it was. The Bucs may have the highest end talent but defensive injuries and the Mayfield low-ceiling really hurt them. The Saints are cycling through QBs and the defense also has shown its biggest weakness in lack of depth recently. The Falcons' defense continues to be strong, as it has throughout the last couple seasons. I don't really see a super high potential future for them as long as their offense gets kneecapped by Arthur Smith's weird defiance to feeding his stars. 

Tier VI - The "One Of These May Sneak In" Trio

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-5  (192-229)
18.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-5  (258-245)

17.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-5  (300-296)

The AFC has four teams at 7-5 in wild card positioning. The best of that bunch is still to come. The other are these three. I wouldn't necessarily call them frauds, but their records are a bit generous. For the Steelers, everything went wrong and now Pickett is out for a few weeks. Trubisky just isn't good enough at this point in his career. Their schedule isn't super difficult, but as we just saw with their miserable loss to Arizona, even an easy schedule is not any sort of guarantee. For the Browns, Flacco was remarkably not awful but I don't expect him to play any better given his age. If anything, I would expect his mobility to harm him more in future games. For the Colts, tehy are just too turnover prone to trust. Their defense is miles better than I would have expected - all credit there to Gus Bradley of all people - but Minshew is just too high variance. Losing Taylor hasn't helped either.

Tier V - The "Middling, Fun Wild Card Contenders" Trio

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-7  (275-258)
15.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-6  (264-290)
14.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-6  (268-253)

On the other side, we have these three which have worse records than the 7-5 AFC Trio, but I would pick any of these three to beat any of the prior group tomorrow if they played head to head. That might be being a bit too optimistic on the Chargers, but their defense has impressed the last few weeks. Herbert is definitely just having an off season. The Seahawks need their defense that they had the first half of the season. It is hard to imagine that we're at the point where Geno basically repeated the successes of the last season but their record is on track to be worse. For the Rams, that was a great win - the offense was excellent against a great defense. Aaron Donald has wreaked havoc the last few games as well. Their top-end is nowhere near where it was in 2020-21, but they have a great shot of squeezing into the playoffs.

Tier VII - The "Genuinely Fun Wild Card Contenders" Quadro

13.) Denver Broncos  =  6-6  (263-302)
12.) XXXXXXX
11.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-6  (263-242)

10.) Houston Texans  =  7-5  (281-249)

The Broncos lost but again had a good defensive performance. It is stunning to think they are on pace to give up just 400 points, given than 70 came in the one game. Wilson locked in a bit too much for me, but his connection to Jeudy & Sutton is just excellent by now. XXXXXXXXXXXXXX. For the Vikings, this is a bet on upside. Dobbs has definitely come back to earth but with Justin Jefferson potentially back in the next couple games, they have serious upward mobility. For the Texans, that was a super impressive win. Not nearly their best game, but Stroud didn't make any bad mistakes, the two main WRs were strong against a good secondary, and Will Anderson was outrageous. I don't think the #3 overall pick has quiet to date, but this was an incredible performance.

Tier VIII - The "Hope the Bye Week Helped, Boys" Uno

9.) Buffalo Bills  =  6-6  (328-227)

I would love to say the bye can cure ills but with the Chiefs and Cowboys coming up, things can get worse. That said, the one shining light would be that much of their AFC Wild Card competition had rough weeks - especially with the Steelers, Browns and Broncos dropping games. They still would have to jump over two of the four 7-5 teams that are above them, but they have that upside. The margin for error is basically zero however.

Tier IX - The "Genuine Contenders" Quadro

8.) Detroit Lions  =  9-3  (327-286)

7.) XXXXXXXX
6.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-3  (384-266)
5.) XXXXXXXXXX

The Lions had a gut check win. The quick 21-0 lead was something but my favorite part of the game was them going up 33-21 after having it get as close as 24-21. Gibbs is also turning into a dynamic player the likes of which they sorely needed as anotehr short option for Goff. This game wasn't perfect by any means. The defense struggled again, but Goff had a calm game which was sorely needed. XXXXXXXXXXXX. The Dolphins finally were able to flex their muscles on offense again. They are still depending a ton on high variance big plays, and you can extend that to things like their screen-pass Pick-6, but there is a good track record of them getting enough of those plays to beat mediocre teams badly. XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Tier X - The "Great NFC East Race of 2023" Duo

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  9-3  (388-220)

3.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  10-2  (329-288)

Oh what timing for these two to play again. They had a great game the first time, with teh Eagles just handing on in Philadelphia. After the Eagles finally see their luck end, getting hammered by San Francisco, you would think they come into Dallas fairly motivated to show the close wins weren't flukes. Dallas though is on such a roll offensively I do worry they can do much the same to the Eagles defense. For the Eagles, it would be nice if they got more than just Smith & Brown working on offense. The team is still good but a sullen loss like that was in the offing for weeks now.

Tier XI - The "2012 Super Bowl Rematch?" Duo

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  9-3  (324-187)

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  9-3  (352-189)

The Ravens quietly sat back on their bye - hopefully figuring out ways to get their offense unlocked in the red zone again. The Defense is fantastic and should by all reason stay that way. The only thing in my mind that stops them from at least an AFC Title Game berth is a potential Lamar injury. For the 49ers, that was some performance. These two actually play later this season. The 49ers one weakness so far has been to AFC teams so let's see if taht lasts.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.)

2.)

3.)

4.)

5.)

6.)

7.)

NFC

1.)

2.)
3.)

4.)

5.)

6.)

7.)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Bye: Arizona Cardinals (3-10), Washington Commanders (4-9)

15.) Carolina Panthers (1-11)  @  New Orleans Saints (5-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) New England Patriots (2-10)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)  (TNF - Prime)

13.) Detroit Lions (9-3)  @  Chicago Bears (4-8)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Houston Texans (7-5)  @  New York Jets (4-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Tennessee Titans (4-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (9-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

10.) Green Bay Packers (X-X)  @  New York Giants (4-8)  (MNF - ABC)
9.) Indianapolis Colts (7-5)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (X-X)  (1:00 - CBS)

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)  @  Atlanta Falcons (6-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Denver Broncos (6-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)  (4:25 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6)  @  Las Vegas Raiders  (5-7)  (4:05 - FOX)

5.) Seattle Seahawks (6-6)  @  San Francisco 49ers (9-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (X-X)  @  Cleveland Browns (7-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

3.) Los Angeles Rams (6-6)  @  Baltimore Ravens (9-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

2.) Buffalo Bills (6-6)  @  Kanas City Chiefs (X-X)  (4:25 - CBS)

1.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)  @  Dallas Cowboys (9-3)  (SNF - NBC)

NFL 2023: Week 12 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Unmitigated Disaster" Uno

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-9  (163-275)

Tier II - The "2023 Draft Jockeying" Quadro

31.) New York Giants  =  3-8  (149-285)

30.) Arizona Cardinals  =  2-9  (192-284)
29.) Chicago Bears  =  3-8  (230-286)
28.) New England Patriots  =  2-8  (141-238)

Tier III - The "Just Plain Bad" Duo

27.) Tennessee Titans  =  3-7  (168-214)

26.) Washington Commanders  =  4-7  (236-305)

Tier IV - The "Barely Alive" Trio

25.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  4-6  (192-200)

24.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-6  (189-217)
23.) New York Jets  =  4-6  (150-204)

Tier V - The "Soft Underbelly of the AFC" Quinto

22.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-6  (185-225)

21.) Denver Broncos  =  5-5  (217-268)

20.) Indianapolis Colts  =  5-5  (242-248)

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  6-4  (166-195)

18.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  5-5  (202-226)

Tier VI - The "LA Story" Duo

17.) Los Angeles Rams  =  4-6  (195-220)

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-6  (259-238)

Tier VII - The "Good, Bad Teams" Duo

15.) Green Bay Packers  =  4-6  (202-202)

14.) New Orleans Saints  =  5-5  (214-198)

Tier VIII - The "Bad, Good Teams" Trio

13.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-4  (216-218)

12.) Minnesota Vikings  =  6-5  (253-230)
11.) Houston Texans  =  6-4  (238-208)

Tier IX - The "High Upside Middlers" Trio

10.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-3  (227-180)

9.) Buffalo Bills  =  6-5  (294-190)

8.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  7-3  (230-204)

Tier X - The "Just Plain Good?....." Trio

7.) Detroit Lions  =  8-2  (272-229)

6.) Miami Dolphins  =  7-3  (305-238)

5.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  7-3  (225-164)

Tier XI - The "NFC Powerhouses" Trio

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  7-3  (302-175)

3.) San Francisco 49ers  =  7-3  (279-157)

2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  9-1  (273-212)

Tier XII - The "We've Seen This Story Before" Uno

1.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-3  (304-177)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) New England Patriots (2-8)  @  New York Giants (3-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

15.) Carolina Panthers (1-9)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Los Angeles Rams (4-6)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-9)  (4:05 - FOX)

13.) Chicago Bears (3-8)  @  Minnesota Vikings (6-4)  (MNF - ESPN)
12.) Washington Commanders (4-7)  @  Dallas Cowboys (7-3)  (Thanskgiving - CBS)

11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)  @  Indianapolis Colts (5-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Miami Dolphins (7-3)  @  New York Jets (5-5)  (Friday - Prime)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

8.) New Orleans Saints (5-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Green Bay Packers (4-6)  @  Detroit Lions (8-2)  (Thanskgiving - FOX)
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (4-6)  (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Cleveland Browns (7-3)  @  Denver Broncos (5-5)  (4:05 - FOX)

4.) San Francisco 49ers (7-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-4)  (Thanksgiving - NBC)

3.) Baltimore Ravens (8-3)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)  (SNF - ESPN)

2.) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)  @  Houston Texans (6-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Buffalo Bills (6-5)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

Re-Post: The Mumbai Attacks, (now 15) Years Later

I posted this five years ago when the attacks were 10 years old. With everything going on in the world, and more than that the weirdness of had Pakistan made teh Cricket World Cup Semifinal, the match would have moved away from Mumbai, because Pakistan cannot play in Mumbai, brought it all back.

Fifteen Years Later, Mumbai is thriving, and despite me having two cancelled trips back in 2022 and 2023, I will make all effort to go back to the beautifully weird city of the bay.

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I am Indian. If I have to self-identify, I do as that. Over the years, I've grown proud to be Indian. Actually, I was always proud, but I'm now more proud to be 100% Indian. When I was really young, and we were regaled in history class stories of Ellis Island and my classmates ancestors coming across, scores of the 'poor, huddled masses', etc., I desperately wanted to have another flag in my family tree aside from India's. I can twist and contort my personal history to include the Portuguese flag, the peoples that colonized the ancestral part of India I am from (Goa), converting many of my ancestors, changing our names to Portuguese names (Pinto and Menezes in my case - the name of the ex-Portuguese National Team goalkeeper and ex-Brazil National Team head coach). Let's be honest, very likely the Portuguese had their way with some and there is a non-zero chance I have some Portuguese blood in me.

I am a Mumbaikar. I am from Mumbai. My roots are from Mumbai. My grandmother's apartment still exists in Mumbai, and that is where my connection to this story lies. That was a long intro, but it means something to be a Mumbaikar, especially in 2018, ten years after our city was rocked. More than a Mumbaikar, I am a person connected with Colaba, the old home of all things Mumbai, a district that is still a bit lost in the times, the colonial home of Mumbai's beauty, but now surpassed as industry expanded their horizons. Of course, Colaba is still important to Mumbai writ large, and was the location of the attacks that rocked the city in November, 2008. The assailants, Pakistani loyalists somewhat led by a US-born terrorist, focused on Colaba, on my home, with excruciating impact.

From my grandparent's flat, the one my Dad and his brothers and sisters grew  up in, where my Aunt and cousin still live, you can see the Taj hotel rising above across the street and couple gullies (alleys, in US parlance). Their apartment building is across the street, literally, from the Leopold Cafe. These landmarks meant little to me pre-2008. But after the terrorists started their attack at the Leopold cafe, exiting and running towards the Taj to hold that majestic hotel hostage, it meant a lot more. I was not in Mumbai that night. My cousin and Aunt were, and they heard the gunshots. I distinctly remember us (my family and my uncle's in Boston) calling my aunt who lived in Colaba that evening, not fully realizing the seriousness and criticality of it all.

In the gulley that connects Leopold Cafe and the Taj Hotel is a tailor - Waghela Tailors. A man who I assume is Mr. Waghela, was killed in the attack. He was in process of closing up his shop, rapidly turning the crank that would gate up his store, when a shot randomly fired off of an assault rifle by a terrorist hit him. He was my dad's tailor. 

His son runs the store now, still remember who Vera Menezes's kids are, and by extension, to some degree who I am. Furthering my connections to the attack, my Uncle got married at the Taj Hotel in 1981. There are multiple pharmacies there, all of whom know my family, having set up shop in Colaba, off the causeway, since 1960-something. They all experienced loss. They all heard the gunshots.

I live close to New York. I went to the World Trade Center about a week before teh attack. I loved that building. Still, I am so much more closely connected, at a personal level, to the Mumbai attack than 9/11. In a weird way, the connection to the Mumbai attack grew over time, as I learned just how close my family lived, just how personal the ties were. 

When the attack happened in November, 2008, I hadn't been to Mumbai for five years, and hadn't visited our apartment in the Esperanca building in seven years. My grandmother died in 2002. I last visited in 2001, obviously too young to understand the legacy of Colaba, the Taj Hotel, and Leopold Cafe. Honestly, in 2001, no one really knew about Leopold Cafe.

I visited Mumbai next in 2011, a one day trip on a layover from Bangalore back to the US. I visited in earnest in 2011 summer, spending six weeks in Mumbai, all the while looking forlornly out my apartment window at the Taj, rising as a pillar above the cloudy monsoon-laden skies. I went to the Taj for the first time (that I can remember) during that trip. And went to Leopold countless times, with the bullet-shattered windows still left unfixed, a testament and monument to the horror that was November 28th, 2008. 

I can't stress enough that my family's home is right across the street from Leopold Cafe, a good five minute walk to the Taj. 10 years later everyone in Mumbai has commendably moved on. Waghela is run by his son. The Taj has laxed its security - so much so it allowed me and my cousin to enter at 2am after a temporary blackout cut power in our flat in 2013. Leopold is as popular as ever, now with a whole host of white people, transient tourists as patrons.

In the ten years since the attack, I have visited our apartment six different times, each time marvelling how close we were to the action. My cousin, as horrifying as it sounds, had a birds-eye view to my country's 9/11. If we picked the perfect moment, we could have seen the terrorists leave the Leopold Cafe post-attack and run through the gulley back to the Taj, all from our perch on the 3rd floor of Esperanca building. In a way, I'm, happy I was 8.000 miles away on 11/28/2008, but also wish I could have been there, to have a first-hand view of how evil people can be. But then also have a reference point to remember again how well man moves on. Never in defiance, but in memoriam.

There is a reason the attackers picked so many landmarks in Colaba. It was the heart off the Colonial era Mumbai. When I tell fellow Indian acquaintances that my family lives there, I often get met with a stare and awe. I am not close enough to India to verify how rare or special this is. What I see in Colaba is its age. There is a great amount of history and import to be sure, but when my cousin and I want to go out, we go to Lower Parel or Bandra, or areas that have left their colonial roots well behind. 

But Colaba is that center. Be it the western tourists that walk its causeway, fighting past hawkering stall owners looking for a fix. Be it the landmarks that were so present long before my consciousness. Be it the new places that have sprung up post attack - like Stock Bar or Colaba Social. Be it the long remembered Sports Bar XS, which was my cousin and my haunt du jour in 2011 summer.

I've lived too close to many terrorist attacks. Obviously, 9/11is the most present. Change a few variables, and I could have lost my Dad (he didn't go to the ;Windows of the World' breakfast that day, on the 110th floor of the 2nd building) and Uncle (who normally took the Boston-to-Los Angeles flight that was hijacked). Someone in my neighborhood lost their dad. Todd Beamer, one of the people who led the mutiny on Flight 93, went to my family church. I still remember when a guidance counselor entered our class room and called out a student, a friend, who's dad worked in the building, luckily on the third floor.

A bit more opaquely, I went to Istanbul Airport two weeks before it was attacked by terrorist bombs. I was in Dallas a week before a shooter opened fire during a rally. I've had my close cases. That all said, apart from the highest interpretation of 9/11, nothing comes close to the Mumbai Attack.

I didn't know it at the time, but over the years, I've grown to appreciate both the intimacy the attack could have had to me, and how well us fellow Mumbaikars have turned the blind eye and just moved on. There is tragedy and bloodshed all over those gulleys, but Mumbai moved on. Each night I spend in the Esperanca building, I look out of our window to a Taj Hotel Tower that was once on fire with hostages inside, look across the street to Leopold Cafe, which still wears its scars, and think of what could have been. But also what has become., a city that moved on, shoved the desolation in the face of the assailants, moved on with pride, whether it being Waghela's son, or Bademiya expanding, or Leopold Cafe squeezing every ounce of notoriety for being location zero.

I am a Mumbaikar. In that sense I move on as we all do. The only time I've been to the Taj hotel was post-attack, same with Leopold, where today I go and order my Kingfisher without even glancing upwards at the window with bullet-holes still in it. I've taken a train from CST (aka VT) station). I've walked the causeway, walked the gulley. I've changed to an OCI resident visa status to allow me to go back and forth to India - something not allowed with a generic visa after a US-born person went back-and-forth from Pakistan to Mumbai to aid in the planning. I am a Mumbaikar who now understands the stakes, who understands that I could have heard the gunshots. It was thanksgiving weekend in the US, and I am thankful for getting to live through what happened next.

Nostalgia Diaries: Oswalt, Pence & Berkman in other Stripes

This has to be easily the most random, most pointedly specific, of any of these. And it is because as I write this, a fat content cat baseball wise, having seen my team win two World Series in recent times (as noted a lot in my last post...), watching my theoretical "rival" Texas Rangers win their first title (honestly... good for them). It got me thinking about my history with baseball. Obviously, I've written about the Astros often during their recent run of success. And I've written about their 2005 run in the Nostalgia Diaries in teh past. But I rarely wrote about the dark days.

And they were dark. 

It is hilarious that from 2004-2023, the Astros were wildly successful in the macro sense. In that tidy 20 year period, they made more LCS's than anyone (9, no one else is more than seven - Dodgers, Yankees), making four World Series (tied with the Red Sox for most). But of course, in that 20 year period, they also had a nine year stretch of not making the playoffs (2006-2014). In that stretch, they lost 100+ games three times - the last two years of taht the result of pretty blatant tanking. Of course, before the blatant tanking, they should have been blatantly tanking - losing a more pathetic 90-95 games a lot of years, ruining their farm system with terrible trades and awful mismanagement. It was dark times.

But in that stretch there was weird periods of light, mainly when guys that played a long time for the Astros went elsewhere and did great things. My three favorite Astros in the pre-Dynasty era were Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence. Oswalt and Berkman were great at a time when the team was great. Neither was the best, but Oswalt has a legitimate argument for being the 2nd best pitcher of the 2000s, behind Roy Halladay. Berkman was one of the quietly best sluggers of the 2000s. Pence was nowhere near as reputed, but he was the last good prospect and player the Astros had in that era, where despite his hilariously awful swing, he had good seasons for bad Houston teams.

All three of them were traded, in pretty quick succession. Oswalt and Berkman in 2010, to the Phillies and Yankees respectively. That offeseason, Berkman signed with teh Cardinals - the last year in which the Cardinals were a direct division rival of the Astros. Hunter Pence was traded in 2011 to the Phillies, and then in 2012 to the Giants. All three would go on to have incredible playoff moments - and in Berkman's and Pence's case - Championship moments, all at a time when their home team in Houston was lousy.

Let's start with Hunter Pence. He was actually pretty poor playing good time for the 2012 Giants title team, but in 2014, when the Giants were basically Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and 23 guys - arguably Hunter Pence was the first of those "guys". In 17 games, he hit .333/.405/.470. He hit a key home run in Game 1 of the World Series against the Royals. He became a Giants legend, in that he won a second title with them, and was oddly one of the few guys to be good for the 2013 Giants, which like most odd-year Giants, was a rarity. But really, this is not about Pence. This is about Berkman and Oswalt, my first two baseball loves.

Berkman is an interesting case. He was almost laughably good in his Houston tenure. Yes, the start of his career coincided with teh steroid era, but in his 11 full seasons in Houston (1999-2009), he hit .299/.412/.556, with 313 HRs and 1041 RBIs, and 46.4 WAR. This isn't necessarily HOF numbers, but not so far off. He was too good for what was the 2006-2009 Astros, and they relented and traded him, to the Yankees first for Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes. He didn't do all that much for the Yankees. He did a whole lot for the hated Cardinals.

In 2011, Berkman quietly hit .301/.412/.547 - teh team's second best player behind Pujols. He was awful in the field, but who cares. Why who cares? Because he was involved in two of the biggest moments in their crazy Game 6 win.

Lance Berkman hit a two-run HR in the bottom of the 1st to make it a 2-1 game. That would be far from his most important moment. We all know about David Freese in the 9th inning. But what we may forget is two batters before that, with the Cardinals down 7-5, with one out, following a Pujols double, Berkman drew a walk. Berkman walked a lot, like a whole damn lot. This was maybe his most improtant walk ever. On Freese's triple to tie the game, Berkman scored the tying run.

And of course, an inning later, with teh Cardinals again down to their last our, their last strike, Berkman delivered with a patented, splayed swing and single to cetner to tie the game again. Berkman had some clutch hits in Houston, to be sure, most memorably his Home Run to the Crawford Boxes in 2005 Game 5, that gave the Astros the lead that Pujols would rob away. This time, Berkman was on the evil side, help8ing Pujols win another ring.

Weirdly, I actually rooted for him. So is the life of a baseball fan who has to transitively root for other teams because their own favorite team is so fallow and poor. I don't feel bad. That 2011 season saw the Astros lose 100+ games, the first of three straight seasons. We were left rooting for old favorites.

And that brings be to Oswalt, forever my favorite Astro, forever the guy that got me to love the game. He's the one guy who when the Astros turned bad, I actively wanted them to trade him to somewhere better, somewhere where he could pitch in October again, pitch in those amazing moments again. And so they did in 2010, sending him to Philadelphia for JA Happ, Jonathan Villar and Anthony Gose (who?). 

Oswalt the Philly was brilliant. Rejuvenated, reborn. In 13 starts for the Phillies, Oswalt went 7-1, with a 1.74 ERA, with a 0.895 WHIP in his 80 innings, and a 316 ERA+ for that time period. Halladay was on that Phillies team and would win the Cy Young that year. During the period they overlapped, Oswalt was better. And entering Game 2 of the NLCS against the soon-to-be-dynastic Giants, Oswalt needed to pick up Halladay, who lost a semi-duel to Lincecum in Game 1 (Jesus all these names give me nostalgia right off the bat).

He wasn't on my favorite team. He was wearing a different uniform. It was all wholly new and weird. But all in all, Oswalt pitching in the playoffs was magical. It brought me back. It had been five years since I really experienced anything in October I cared about, and suddenly I cared again. It wasn't with Houston, but it was with an NL team, in a roaring ballpark. That's all that mattered.

8 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 8 K's. Oswalt was incredible. The Philadelphia fans embraced him wholeheartedly. His weird delivery just flummoxing a Giants team that would ultimately be victorious. The best part is how Oswalt ended his night. He ended the seventh by striking out Pat Burrell (NLCS MVP) with a ridicukous curveball, thrown at 69-mph like he is wont to do. Then he led off the bottom half by hitting a single. After getting bunted over to 2nd (quick pause to talk about the hilarity of bunting over the pitcher...), he scored from 2nd on a single. He flew that day.

It was werid watching Oswalt do this for sure, but at that moment my Astros fandom was on pause in full. I was left rooting for people. I'm not, for the most part, a root for laundry guy. I have my favorite teams, be it the Astros, the Colts, the Spurs, the Devils, but the guys that I like that come up with one of those teams, well I'll always root for them. It helps that generally when Pence, Berkman and Oswalt left Houston, the Astros were in such shambles it didn't much matter. If anything, at minimum, it just gave me something else to cheer for, but cheering for these things is what makes sports fun even if it isn't for the team you love.

I will never not love that Hunter Pence escaped Houston, after being called up after the 2004-05 fun, and won two World Series for the Giants, the most fun of dynasties. I hate that it was for the Cardinals, but I will love that Lance Berkman had his moment in the sun. And of course, the connection with a starting pitcher is always a bit deeper. Seeing Roy Oswalt pitch on the mound in October 2010, after going five years without that month coming into play, was beautiful, was haunting, was incredible - and seeing him spin eight innings, that beautiful wizard that he was, is a memory of a lifetime. 

I'm so glad the Astros got good from 2015 onwards that I can stack memories of my team in my uniform, but in that weird, dark, desolate nine year period, I went seeking for these random moments of glory, and found them with my three favorite players wearing different uniforms doing amazing things. Do I wish they could've done those in Houston? Sure. But I'm just glad I got to watch them all the same.

Testing My "Be Content With Two" Theory

A little past midseason, on a past largely extolling the non-Astros virtues of this baseball season, I wrote the following:

"I will forever live by my mantra of "I only want to win twice." Granted, there is some arrogance is asking to win a second time. Many fans never seen the team win the one time. But contrast my contentness of where the Astros have been vs. my constant incoherent, dawdling and dreading around the post-2006 career Peyton Manning"

Well, after my Astros threw away a World Series appearance by not being able to win one single home game in a 7-game series, getting blown out shamefully in Game 6-7 at home - well, let's just say I'm putting that theory very much to the test.

But weirdly, I think my reaction to that loss is only more reinforced by living through that and, in the end, not really caring. Would I have prefered them not get embarassed - well of course I would have. But I got my two. I still have those two. And of course, I can still fall back on the "Seven Straight Years" of it all. Also, if we win too much, then we become even more the Patriots - and I don't like that. I don't like the inherent arrogance that comes with that, even if person to person there isn't too much arrogance.

The Astros are more akin to my Devils growing up - good every year, won our share of titles (three Cups, though only two I actually remember), but also good enough to get beat enough that there were some scars. And I think that's the amazing dichotomy of this Astros run. They're just always there, but for a team that is always there, they have some curious, sullen losses.

For a quick recap:

= They lost an ALCS 1-4 in 2018 despite out-hitting Boston, but they couldn't string together hits for their life. They also lost all three home games after splitting the first two in Boston

= They lost a World Series in 2019, just like they did this past ALCS, where the road team won every game. Unlike 2023 when they were blown out of Game 6-7, in 2019 they actually led both games through five innings, but late homers from starters probably left in too long did them in (also not scoring more than 1 run in the first five innings of Game 7 when they got guys on every inning...)

= They lost a World Series in 2021 to an 88-win Braves team, including getting shutout in game 6 at home in an elimination game, a game where they literally never really threatened.

= Overall, they are 2-3 in Game 7s, winning their first two in 2017, but losing 2019 WS, 2020 ALCS, 2023 ALCS

But how could I attack that team. Forgot about the myriad successes that I'll state shortly, but even within that litany of losing, there's a lot of incredible moments and challenging narratives. For instance, those two series where the road team won every game - while of course we should criticize Houston for blowing the first two games at Home, and even more be critical of them losing the last two at home, but also shouldn't we too credit them for having the mental reserve to go on the road and win three straight when the opponent has a huge edge. 

The micro-example of this we just saw - with Altuve's incredible home run to cap the game 5 rally. That was poise, that was experience, that was all of that rolled into one play. Is that lessened by then them collapsing the next two games?

My other go-to for this is their other Game 7 loss - the 2020 ALCS, where they lost pretty meekly in Game 7 to a much better (for that season) Rays team, but should we not remember that they crawled back from a 0-3 hole, including a stirring walk-off win in Game 4?

And of course, let's get to the opposite side of things - wherein in this same stretch:

= Let's get this out of the way first, they've won two World Series!

= They've gone an unconsciable 13-1 at home in the ALDS (of course, the one loss being this year when they end the season a dreadful 40-47....)

= After getting pummeled for 6 home runs in the band-box that is Citizen's Bank last year in Game 3 of the World Series, they responded by winning the next two games in Philadelphia, including throwing the second no-hitter in World Series history

= Similarly in the 2021 ALCS, after falling behind 2-1 to Boston, including a 12-3 loss in Game 3, they responded by winning the next three 9-2 (after being down 2-1 after seven), 9-1 and 5-0, with a 2-hitter of Boston in the clincher

= In the 2019 ALCS, they went to Yankee Stadium, the place they lost all three games in teh 2017 ALCS, and won Game 3-4 to take a 3-1 lead

= Oh yeah, and did I mention that they won two freaking World Series!

The plusses of the ledger are so far and away ahead of the minuses in this equation. And in the end that's what I'll continue to be happy about. In these seven years, they've reached the ALCS each time. They've also then gone 4-3 (so above .500) in those ALCS's, and then 2-2 in the subsequent World Series. While sure I guess this is not some all time run, I don't care - it is more than enough for a long damn time. As I mentioned in my "Seven Straight Years" post, combine this with their 2004-05 NLCS appearances, they've made the LCS nine times in the last 20 years - the most in baseball (let's just not talk about the nine years of 2006-2014).

Baseball is a great game and it isn't meant to be dominated by teams that string off World Series titles. That happened a lot in the pre-Free Agency days, but since the 70s, we had the Big Red Machine (two straight), the Reggie Jackson A's (three straight), the early-90s Jays (two straight) and then the Dynasty Yankees (three straight). That's teh extent of teams to win consecutive championships. My Astros probably won't join that list, but they gave me two, they gave me a bunch of other amazing memories. Yes, some awful ones as well, but at the end the good ones outweigh the bad, I got my two titles to celebrate, and we may still not be done.

NFL 2023: Week 8 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The QB Race Duo

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  0-6  (112-186)
31.) Arizona Cardinals  =  1-6  (127-182)

As I'll always note until / if they leave this lowest tier, the Panthers don't have their first round pick. Anyway, their psycho finance bro owner David Tepper probably would just keep riding with Bryce anyway. The Panthers are not very good. The Cardinals aren't either, but have played reasonably well week to week. There's a long trend of teams that no one thinks are good entering the season, being frisky during some early season games that they still end up losing, and then starting to fall into being as bad as we all thought. I think there's a chance that happens to this Cardinals team - with the good news being Jonathan Gannon seems like a good head coach.

Tier II - The "Yeah, They're Just Not Good" Trio

30.) New York Giants  =  2-5  (85-174)

29.) Chicago Bears  =  2-5  (158-188)
28.) Denver Broncos  =  2-5  (148-217)

So seven weeks into the season, we have just two teams with less than two losses, but also jsut two teams with less than two wins. There's a lot of muk between 2-5 and 5-2, but these three have set themselves apart - ironically though all three won last week. The Giants still have a pathetic point differential, and we are seemingly a couple weeks away from a really weird situation when they have to decide between Taylor and Jones. The Bears of course may face the same, somehow, with Fields and Bagent. If anything, Bagent has just remarkably better pocket presence relative to Fields. For the Broncos, no QB controversy of course, but there's also no real signs of life with teh Wilson offense. The defense has been OK now for three straight games but you still have to wonder when that crater falls off again as they continue to cut useful players.

Tier III - The "Muddled Mess of Pretenders" Quinto

27.) Washington Commanders  =  3-4  (140-190)

26.) Tennessee Titans  =  2-4  (104-117)
25.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  3-4  (112-161)

24.) New England Patriots  =  2-5  (101-177)

23.) Green Bay Packers  =  2-4  (130-132)

Yeah, this is what I meant by "the muk". The Commanders basically can't get the offense and defense to play well the same week. Aside from a blowout loss to the Bills, they've generally kept games close, but alternate losing 28-35 type games, and 7-14 type games. For the Titans, if Tannehill is hurt this is going to fall off the rails. For the Raiders, they still haven't scored 20 points - Adams will likely just lose it at some point, and of course Year 2 McDaniels is a ticking time bomb. Nice win for the Patriots, and that's three straight "not awful" games by Mac Jones, but the level of talent on that team is just not there to win enough to realistically get back into it. For the Packers, that was a dreadful loss - not sure why I honestly have them ranked ahead of the other four here. The offense looks so slow and short with Love. The defense has talent but can't carry them yet.

Tier IV - The "Semi Interesting Spoilers" Trio

22.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-4  (178-191

21.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-3  (103-104)
20.) New Orleans Saints  =  3-4  (133-127)

None of these teams are very good, but all seem incapable of losing boring games. The Colts offense is the only one in the league to score 20+ points every week. They lit up the Browns down to down but Minshew is just not good enough and is way too high-risk to keep the floor high enough. Honestly, similarly Mayfield with the Bucs, which of course have a great defense being let down by their offense for a second straight year. For the Saints, Carr needs to push the field more. Of course, that's basically been his issue his whole career, but its more pointed now. 

Tier V - The "LA Blues" Duo

19.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-4  (144-155)

18.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-4  (155-141)

It's time to just honestly re-assess this whole LA thing. The NFL picked the Rams and Chargers to move there, two teams that didn't ahve the greatest fanbases in their own cities. Now every home game in LA is basically a road game - something that gets heightened when it was Dallas last Monday or the Steelers this week. The Chargers are just not playing to their level, specifically the OL and the DL - the DL is basically way more name recognition than anything else. For the Rams, taht was a tough loss. They are playing with great guile and scheme over talent - specifically on defense, and it just doesn't last up enough over 60 minutes.

Tier VI - The "Wild Card Fodder, in theory" Quadro

17.) New York Jets  =  3-3  (113-119)

16.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  4-2  (103-127)
15.) Houston Texans  =  3-3  (135-113)
14.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-3  (115-133)

The Jets are hanging in there, with Wilson playing slightly better and the defense still playing well. I just worry that Wilson won't be able to keep up even his level of play so far. The Steelers are somehow 4-2 with a -24 point differential, but I actually think of any in this group they have the most upward momentum. The offense had to play better than its woeful drive to drive results over the first four games, and we're seeing that now - specifically the Pockets to Pickett connection. The Falcons I guess are more than Wild Card fodder, given someone has to win the NFC South. What's impressed me about them is the consistent above-average play on defense. For the Texans, more than even CJ Stroud's great performance to date, is the state of that defense, which Demeco Ryans has turned around so quickly. They are a really well coached unit and some of the recent draft picks that were mostly seen as non-successes due to injury more than anything else, have really come aroudn. 

Tier VII - The "The Worst is Behind Us" Duo

13.) Minnesota Vikings  =  3-4  (151-152)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  3-3  (100-127)

The Vikings started 1-4, the Bengals 1-3, both with pretty sullen losses and a whole lot of questions. The Vikings and Bengals have both come back to life. Now, teh Bengals are technically still last in the division, but Burrow is looking healthier and the defense playing better. For the Vikings - at some poitn I guess Jefferson will return, but even then Mattison's recent strong play is a great sign. Cousins is playing at a truly great level. I don't know if either will end up in the playoffs, particularly the Vikings with four losses already, but what were seemingly lost, disastrous seasons have really come back to life.

Tier VIII - The "High Variance Good Teams" Quadro

11.) Cleveland Browns  =  4-2  (134-115)
10.) Seattle Seahawks  =  4-2  (144-118)
9.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-2  (154-100)
8.) Detroit Lions  =  5-2  (174-151)

As we get four teams that at their best have looked incredible, and at their worst have looked useless. The Browns have to hope that their defensive porousness (Myles Garrett brilliance aside) is a random one week blip rather than the start of a sustained lower level of play than their initial incredible level. The Seahawks offense has now struggled two straight weeks, but their defense has been able to make up for that donwswing quite well - but against non-Cardinals type teams it may not work as much. For the Cowboys, not sure if the bye came at the best time after a big win following the disaster that was their loss to the 49ers. But they have such a high ceiling given just the top flight talent and strong OL play this year. Finally for the Lions, yeah that was awful. That was rough. But it may just be one week against one of the best teams playing at their very best. I'll trust the 20 prior games that show the Lions to be a very good team. They need to protect Goff better, have to.

Tier IX - The "NFC East Race" Duo

7.) Miami Dolphins  =  5-2  (240-187)

6.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-3  (198-118)

Speaking of high variance teams. The Dolphins have seen their offense limited and slowed against the only two good teams they've played. But Hill is still just so unplayable, and the DL showed some signs of life against one of the league's better OLs in Philly. For the Bills - what to say? The past two years, most of their losses have been razor thin and flukey. But these last two, against both the Jags in London and now this game against the Pats, they just got outplayed. Now, there's enough talent that both were close losses. The worry is the defense just won't have the same floor performance with the injury losses this year that will be just tough to overcome. The offensive ceiling is still super high. They still remain one of the more efficient offense in aggregate - but it just seems bad.

Tier X - The "Best 2-Loss Teams" Trio

5.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  5-2  (173-146)

4.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-2  (201-109)

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  5-2  (171-97)

It may look weird having the Jags here, but they've quietly won four straight games without too much bluster, have Trevor Lawrence getting back to his performance level from later half of last year, and the defense has really settled in. Still too many fumbles and the like but that screams to me as more randomness than anything lasting. For the 49ers, two straight losses is a bit alarming, but both on the road, both close games, and a spate of turnovers that likely won't recur. I still believe, basically. For the Ravens, the team that should be 7-0. The fact their losses are to the Colts and Steelers is quite disturbing, but man if the receivers hold onto the ball, they are incredible. The defense is so good at generating pressure. The younger guys that needed to step up have very much done so.

Tier XI - The "Are Super Bowl Rematches Fun?"

2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  6-1  (186-141)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  6-1  (178-105)

So, in all likelihood we don;t get a rematch, but it is funny that quietly these are the last 1-loss teams left, and both won 31-17 in impressive fashion. For teh Eagles, that was their most complete performacne in all phases - from Hurts being his most controlled this year, to the DL dominating a great offense all day. The secondary also played well (aside from random Hill craziness). For the Chiefs, Mahomes had his best game, but really that defense has shown over six games that they are just excellent. They're healthy, the young guys are all playing well, and Spags is on his bag 100%. Just a dominant unit - this is what the NFL always feared: Mahomes with a great defense. Injuries and the vagaries of defensive performance can always set things astride as we go, but right now they're the best team in the league, or at the very least the most dependable week to week.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Chicago Bears (2-5)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)  (SNF - NBC)

15.) Houston Texans (3-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (0-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Baltimore Ravens (5-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (1-6)  (4:25 - CBS)

13.) New York Jets (3-3)  @  New York Giants (2-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (6-1)  @  Washington Commanders (3-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)  @  Denver Broncos (2-5)  (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Atlanta Falcons (4-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (2-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

9.) New Orleans Saints (3-4)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)  @  Detroit Lions (5-2)  (MNF - ESPN)

7.) Minnesota Vikings (3-4)  @  Green Bay Packers (2-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)  @  Buffalo Bills (4-2)  (TNF - Prime)

5.) New England Patriots (2-5)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Los Angeles Rams (3-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (4-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

2.) Cleveland Browns (4-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (4-2)  (4:05 - FOX)

1.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (5-2)  (4:25 - CBS)

NFL 2023: Week 7 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The Caleb Williams Race Quadro

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  0-6  (112-186)

31.) Chicago Bears  =  1-5  (128-176)

30.) Arizona Cardinals  =  1-5  (117-162)
29.) New York Giants  =  1-5  (71-167)

It's weird putting the Panthers in the Caleb Williams picture because they don't have their first round pick. it is an interesting thought exercise whether had they gone 3-14 or something and ended up with the top pick if they cut bait on Bryce Young in favor of the guy everyone thinks is a generational prospect. For the other three, they are all in the race for if not Williams than Drake Maye. The Bears I have to think would make that switch, same with the Cardinals where they probably do give up on Kyler if the alternative is what seems like a more sure thing. The Giants are the most hilariously sad one because of the contract they just gave Daniel Jones. That the team seemed to have far more life with Tyrod Taylor is not a good sign at all for Danny Dimes.

Tier II - The Life Comes At You Fast Duo

28.) Denver Broncos  =  1-5  (129-200)

27.) New England Patriots  =  1-5  (72-152)

I thought the Broncos would be decent with Sean Payton being able to revive something from Russell Wilson. I thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the AFC East, but at least hover around .500. Right now both teams are dreadful, and it is only that remaining reputational slant that has me not putting them in that bottom category - that said both would be wise to tank if they could well and truly. Wilson is toast. Mac Jones may be better than he's showing but you have to think that New England environment is just not conducive to his success.

Tier III - The Not Very Good Quadro

26.) Tennessee Titans  =  2-4  (104-117)

25.) Minnesota Vikings  =  2-4  (129-135)

24.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  3-3  (100-131)
23.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-3  (140-152)

The Titans and Vikings are both two games under .500, but arguably better than many of the myriad 3-3 teams that are higher in seed. But I'm dropping the Titans due to the uncertainty around Ryan Tannehill (though I get a bit interested to see Will Levis), and for the Vikings with the seeming chance that Justin Jefferson just shuts it down for the season to rest up for a massive free agent contract. For the Raiders, their wins are super unimpressive, and the offenses ceiling seems to be 20 points. The defense has probably done better than anyone would have expected but that offensive performance is unsustainable long term. For the Colts, Mishew showed what he is in that game. The one thing he can't really do is turn it over and he was dreadful in that regard. I also do wonder what the idea was in not running Jonathan Taylor more in that last game.

Tier IV - The Wild Card Aspirations Quadro

22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-3  (99-120)

21.) Washington Commanders  =  3-3  (133-176)

20.) Green Bay Packers  =  2-3  (113-113)

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  3-2  (79-110)

This ridiculous amount of three-win (or in the Packers case 2-3) teams is really hard to sift through. I'm sure there always is this muddled mess six weeks in, and over time you would think the records become a bit more polarized. The Falcons are a scheme heavy team whose scheme seems not to favor its best players. I doubt Ridder can play worse, but you watch that game and start to understand why they just run it all the time. For the Commanders, it was nice seeing the defense finally get back to a decent level. Howell still takes way too many sacks. For the Packers, they have a soft schedule coming out of the bye so it will be interested to see if they can take advantage of that. For the Steelers, for the second straight year they have a dreadful scoring differential and good record. While I can't imagine that totally lasts, I do believe in their upside more so than the other three teams, mainly since that defense has started to play better in recent weeks.

Tier V - The Defense Can Maybe Save Us Duo

18.) New York Jets  =  3-3  (113-119)

17.) Houston Texans  =  3-3  (135-113)

The Jets being 3-3 against that schedule is a miracle. Less so when you consider Josh Allen truly just handed them a game, and Jalen Hurts did much teh same, but still had they gone 3-3 against teh same schedule with Aaron Rodgers at QB, I wouldn't have been shocked. Quietly the offense has been passable in recent weeks, with even Wilson showing a lot more poise. He just has to stay in the pocket more. For the Texans, Stroud has been amazing, but the real story is Demeco Ryans turning that defense around this quickly. Many great defensive coaches often take a year to get their types of players and what-not (see Saleh's first Jets season compared to his second), but Ryans took some amount of talent available and has upskilled them immediately.

Tier VI - The Treading Water Trio

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-3  (127-124)

15.) New Orleans Saints  =  3-3  (109-96)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-2  (90-88)

The Chargers should be better than this, but at some point some of the issues have to be pointed at Herbert. Maybe he's not healthy, but he missed way, way too many throws against Dallas and still checks down way too much with a new offense he's directing. For the Saints, their upside is still probably higher than any team in that division but the offense just looks lost at times. I find it weird saying they have the best upside in the NFC South and then having the Bucs ranked ahead of them, but to me the Bucs represent the single best unit in the division with their defense which remains excellent.

Tier VII - The Lively Wild Card Lifers Quadro

13.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  3-3  (100-127)
12.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-3  (138-117)
11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  3-2  (124-108)
10.) Cleveland Browns  =  3-2  (95-77)

The Bengals are back to .500, and things may continue to trend upwards, but all the excitement about Burrow's strong game in Arizona had to be cooled a bit. That offense still has so little dynamism to it. Good think though the defense has maintained being a fringe top-10 unit again. For the Rams, Stafford just looks so solid, so healthy. I thought they had this type upside if he was healthy, and with Kupp back and healthy it really is a nice little offense. For the Seahawks, that was a frustrating loss, but losing by 4 to a good team on the road isn't all that shameful. Geno remains on a now year-and-a-half heater. For the Browns, that defense is just tremendous - they just abused the 49ers lineman the entire game and the coverage unit is strong as well. I honestly don't even care if Watson doesn't improve - given he's a monster, I'm perfectly fine with him just continuing to suck - but even that probably doesn't tank this team.

Tier VIII - The I Want To Believe More Trio

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  4-2  (142-122)

8.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-2  (154-100)

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  4-2  (133-91) 

The Jags are now quietly 4-2, with a defense that has stayed dynamic, and Lawrence has looked better each week. They have to limit the dumb turnovers they still too often have, but Lawrence has done a good job getting Zay Jones and Christian Kirk more and more involved. The Cowboys needed that win, though still it is (not surprising) ridiculous with how many penalties and stupid mistakes they make. Dak is still excellent and it was good to see signs of life with Brandin Cooks after a slow start for him. The defense has stabilized a bit after losing Diggs, with Daron Bland really taking a step up in his game. The Ravens should be 5-1 - in reality they should be 6-0. Much like the Bills that I'll get to, no team loses more games they absolutely should win. The biggest culprit seems to be a shockingly poor track record in the red zone. 

Tier IX - The Just Plain Good Teams Trio

6.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  5-1  (155-124)

5.) Detroit Lions  =  5-1  (168-113)

4.) Miami Dolphins  =  5-1  (223-156)

The Eagles probably needed that loss - they clearly were just lackadaisically running through this season at 5-0, without playing anything near their best. They needed that wake up call. I'm also a bit surprised how quiet Devonta Smith has been this season. In the end though, this is still a great team that nearly won that game despite the four turnovers. For the Lions, more than even the offense, it has been shocking how good the defense has been so far. Great in the secondary and even the secondary pass rushers beyond Hutchinson have started to make more of an impact. The Dolphins showed a lot to me not flinching for a second when falling down 14-0. Now, a better team than Carolina probably doesn't collapse that easily, but still aside from one bad half against Buffalo (and parts of that New England game) this offense has been exceptional, even with some injuries.

Tier X - The Enjoyable Enigma Uno

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-2  (173-89)

That was a scary game but the Bills pulled it out. Was comforted to see the defense play that well. Yes, they've not played well for two straight games now, but I still believe in them. Every underlying number would have them be one of the better teams in the league. The run game has picked up the last few games (Jacksonville game excepted). Gabe Davis is starting to play better. Sue me, I still believe even if they're starting to be way too scattershot, reminding me of the 2021 team that went 11-6 despite being on the metrics the best team in the NFL.

Tier XI - The Most Trustworthy Teams Duo

2.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  5-1  (147-88)

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-1  (184-87)

The 49ers won't surprise. Of course I'm worried about the CMC and Deebo injuries but this is me pinning hope that it isn't too serious with either. That defense remains tremendous, and in the end I think Purdy is a very good QB, and one bad game against the league's best defense doesn't change that. For the Chiefs, quietly they have the league's longest winning streak and are very much in that Ravens camp of "they easily should be 6-0" with their loss being the 1-pt opener against Detroit where if not for ten different drops they would have won. They just don't lose games they aren't supposed to, which will set them up for their normal 13-4 type season, a clear path to the #1 seed and off we go.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Cincinnati Bengals (3-3), Dallas Cowboys (4-2), Tennessee Titans (2-4), New York Jets (3-3), Carolina Panthers (0-6), Houston Texans (3-3)

13.) Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)  @  Chicago Bears (1-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Washington Commanders (3-3)  @  New York Giants (1-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Green Bay Packers (2-3)  @  Denver Broncos (1-5)  (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (1-5)  @  Seattle Seahawks (3-2)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "Mega 1-5 Sunday" as we get four games featuring 1-5 teams, and none against particularly high-caliber competition that can give anything too interesting on the other side. This is actually one of the better slates to date, but there is a good amount of slop with these four games. For the Bears, putting it last given the uncertainty around Fields. For the Giants, similar with their QB uncertainty. For the Broncos and Cardinals, at least they generally keep games interesting.

9.) Buffalo Bills (4-2)  @  New England Patriots (1-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Can we start digging the grave?" Sunday, as the Bills have a chance to really bury the Patriots, at home no less. They're already basically done for this season, but we've seen a 1-5 team make the playoffs as recently as 2015 (Cheifs, who went 10-0 to close the season...), but never a 1-6 team. The Bills also get the chance against the team that dominated them for so long. Yes, I'm sure some of that catharsis was already released with that memorable 47-17 playoff win, but I'm sure the Buffalo fans are happy to release some more.

8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)  @  Los Angeles Rams (3-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

7.) Cleveland Browns (3-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Atlanta Falcons (3-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX) 

I call it "Can we please get some separation?" Sunday, as we get three games with the muddled mess of 2-3 / 3-3 / 3-2 teams. The Rams get another chance to stake their claim as the comeback team of the year. The Browns, probably without Watson again, get to further flex their defensive muscles with a unit worth the price of admission by itself. For the Bucs and Falcons, sue me but I have a weird infatuation with this ludicrous division that is somehow seemingly worse than last year when an 8-9 Bucs team won it.

5.) San Francisco 49ers (5-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (2-4)  (MNF - ESPN)

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)  @  New Orleans Saints (3-3)  (TNF - Prime) 

I call it "Live Home Dogs..." Monday and Thursday, as we get two of the better teams in the league going on the road on primetime to play teams that have good enough upsides to absolutely give a scare. Maybe I would think differently if the 49ers were more healthy, but if McCaffrey is out (which seems likely as I write this on Tuesday), that game is far more fascinating. For the Saints, they have the type of defense that can make a (potentially gimpy) Lawrence struggle as well. As always, figure one of these games are close, and the other has the better team just dominating.

3.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-3)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Can the Chiefs basically clinch again" Sunday, as the Chiefs get a chance to basically put the division away (barring Mahomes getting hurt or something) by starting out 6-1, 3.5 games up on what we would think their biggest competitor to be. That said, these two have generally played fun, thrilling games in recent years, filled with Kelce OT TDs and pick-sixes and the like. The Chiefs have generally won them, but if the Chargers want to get on the right track, winning this one would be an amazing start.

2.) Detroit Lions (5-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (4-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "NFC vs. AFC, Pt. 1" as we get a game between one of the best NFC teams and one of the best AFC teams. There's been a weird dynamic between the two. Everyone coming into the season was figuring the AFC to be far better, but in early weeks the NFC won most of the inter-conference matchups. Last week flipped that completely, with the Eagles and 49ers both losing to middling AFC teams. Here we get a good AFC team. This should just be a fun game between two of the more entertaining teams in the league, though a role reversal with teh Ravens being maddening at times, and the Lions being stably very good every week.

1.) Miami Dolphins (5-1)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "This is what SNF is made for" Sunday, as we just get a beauty at the end of the night. The Dolphins are the most fun team to watch so far, but their schedule has been hilariously soft - with the exception of the Bills game where they got hammered. Here they start a far tougher stretch with teh Eagles in Philadelphia, off of a loss, with what I'm sure will be an intense crowd (that may be on a high with teh Phillies potentially either already in or clinching a World Series spot that day...). Just a great matchup. The Dolphins offense vs the Philly DL. Seeing if the Hurts offense can get back on track. A night game in one of the best stadium atmospheres at night. Now, SNF has a habit of having these seemingly good games turn into a 38-14 win for the home team, but let's dream shall we.