The Top-20 QBs: #20 - Ben Roethlisberger

#20 - Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger has had about 4-5 different careers in just over a decade. At first, he was the talented young QB who was on the perfect team to limit has stats, accentuate his features and win a lot of games. Then he became something of a renegade who rode motorcycles and lead dramatic 4th quarter comebacks - the guy who 'plays well when it matters.' Then he came something of a pariah, whether it be his off-the-field issues, or the criticism he got for not being Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees. Finally, starting around 2012-13, when the off-field issues, for better or worse, got further away in the rear-view mirror, and the team started to suffer around him and needed Ben's brilliance to get them to .500, he started finally, truly, getting the credit and labels he deserved all along: a fantastic, stellar QB well on his way to the Hall of Fame, someone who combined traditional QB brilliance and a unique style all his own. Ben Roethlisberger is a sure-fire hall of famer; he became that probably around 2011. What he's done since is the icing on a fantastic cake.

To put it this way, Ben Roethlisberger is statistically a better QB than you think he is, and he is all the other things you think he is. He's a perfect intersection of a tough, scrambler, play-maker, who keeps plays alives and plays like we all did in the backyard, and the exacting brilliant mind of the modern QB. You can argue Rodgers is all these things as well, but Roethlisberger, for no real reason, seems to be perceived more on the vagabond playmaker side. Not that I blame people. Roethlisberger was that guy originally. It was hard to initially look past the guy who was built like a TE. When he started in the league in 2004, at 6'5" and 240 lbs., there was no one like him. He wasn't asked to do a lot initially, on a supremely talented team with a great running game, two great receivers and a great defense. Still, add a normal QB to a team with three great areas, and they probably don't go 13-0. What was hidden behind that record, and his style, was a player who was already showing signs of the dominance he's shown since.

In his rookie season, Ben Roethlisberger was a borderline Top-5 QB in the NFL. He had a 98.1 QB rating, a Y/A of 8.9, and completed 66.4% of his passes. Almost every rookie QB suffers in those areas of play. He was an incredibly gifted passer, who yes was asked to throw 25-30 times a game, but so was Mark Sanchez. Ben Roethlisberger as a rookie was in a different time zone. He had the best rookie season for a QB in NFL history, and then went on to have one of the best 2nd seasons if you remove Dan Marino from the discussion. Roethlisberger essentially repeated his rookie season, but this time added some black ink to his resume, leading the NFL in TD%, Y/A (again, at 8.9) and Y/C. Now he was easily a Top-5 QB. Then, somehow, his ability seemed to peak.

We do have to discuss the darker, more mysterious part of Roethlisberger's career. Starting from his motorcycle accident in the 2006 preseason, through his 2008 season that ended in a Super Bowl run, Roethlisberger seemed to go squarely into the direction of 'big, burly playmaker' side. He had a bad year in 2006, the one truly off year of his career. He then had a season in 2007 that looks better on paper than it did in reality (104.1 passer rating, with 32 TDs and 11 INTs, but threw the ball just 404 times), and then had the reverse in 2008. His 2008 season was a strange one. He had the good fortune of playing with the best defense in the NFL, but he also was at the time right before the Steelers became WR heaven again, and the first year his pass blocking was anything other than good. He had a bad year statistically, but made his mark with late drive after late drive.

From there, Roethlisberger let it fly in 2009. For the first time in his career the Steelers defense was something other than excellent. He had some great receivers in prime Santonio Holmes and a break-out Mike Wallace. The running game was transitioning. They had to have Roethlisberger throw. For the first time he threw 500 passes in a season. And as people should have predicted, he did really well, completing 66.6% of his passes, for 4,300 yards, another Y/A over 8.0, and a passer rating over 100. And then came last year, when he did all of that, but even more. Again, gifted with a prodigious WR in Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger threw it even more, this time topping 600 yards, and was arguably the best QB in the NFL in the regular season, with 4,900 yards, with 32 TDs and a passer rating at 103.3. Ben Roethlisberger was, more than ever before, asked to be Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, and was a Top-2 QB in the NFL.

That's really the hidden brilliance of Ben Roethlisberger. Take away the trappings and size and 'warrior' nature of his game, and what you have is a hyper-efficient player. In his 11 seasons, he had a QB rating over 97.0 seven times (admittedly, that is arbitrary), a Y/A over 8.0 five times, and for his career has completed 64.0% of his passes, with 41,000 yards and a career 94.0 passer rating. That's a profile that compares right there with the top QBs of his era, coming from a guy who has had iffy pass protection for nearly a decade now, playing outdoors city for a defensive-minded team in a defensive-minded division. Ben Roethlisberger has been so much more dominant than anyone really thinks. Yet, for those who have him shoe-horned into this 'clutch', 'winner' and 'non-stats' great, he is all those things too.

The Super Bowl drive is the one that will always be remembered, likely it will be Roethlisberger's A-Block highlight. There's a reason for that. His final throw was thrown with computer accuracy. The drive even started with a 10-yard holding penalty that pushed them to 1st and 20 from the 12. But to me the real signature drive was five weeks earlier, in Week 15, in Baltimore. The Steelers were 10-3. The Ravens were 9-4. The winner had the clear track to win the AFC North. The Steelers were the NFL's best defense across the board in 2008, but this game was in Baltimore and all the stats the Steelers' defense was #1 in, if you limit to just home games, the Ravens were #1. The Steelers took over with 3:30 to go, on their own three yard line, down 9-6. Roethlisberger led a classic drive in the most hostile of environments, for a TD that won the Steelers the game and the division. It was an amazing drive, the winning throw made off a completely busted play when Roethlisberger had no one open, then scrambled left, found nothing, shook off a tackle and then went back right and fired a pass to Holmes. It was an incredible play in an incredible game. It was everything that encompassed Ben Roethlisberger. A winner, sure, but an incredibly patient, prescient and precise QB.

The Top-50 QBs: #30 - #21

30.) Boomer Esiason

In his favor, Boomer Esiason won an MVP, led a Bengals franchise away from the dark ages for another decade, extending their relevance for another few years and even another Super Bowl appearance. He was also the first QB to really implement a no-huddle offense. His offense was revolutionary at the time, coming before the Bills did the same with the K-Gun. On the other side, he had a long fall in Arizona and New York that hurt his career stats. Not having great receiving options (I mean, Cris Collinsworth was arguably his best receiver in his career - and he was not that good) hurt his stats as well. Esiason never reached the heights that he could have on a better team, but with that no-huddle offense, his memory will lie on. Also, I have a personal soft-spot for him as one of the co-hosts of the great morning show on WFAN with Craig Carton. Easily the most accessible great QB in history.


29.) Donovan McNabb

Donovan McNabb was a lot better than people will remember. He was a lot better especially at the things people thought he was bad at. Donovan McNabb was incredibly careful with the ball, throwing interceptions on just 2.2% of his throws (a great figure for the early to mid 00's). He was better at evading sacks than almost any 'running' QB. He was also better at making competent-at-worst offenses out of nothing receivers. For most of his career, he was throwing to Todd Pinkston, James Thrash and Fred-Ex Mitchell. The one year he was given a motivated, play-nice Terrell Owens, he had an awesome year and led his team to the Super Bowl. His 11-years in Philadelphia will never be remembered by the people that cheered him on as much as it should, but we should all remember just how good Donovan McNabb was. He and Andy Reid made a really nice duo for 10-years. It all fell apart rapidly, but he's easily the best modern-era QB the Eagles ever had. Donovan McNabb was a lightning rod way more than anyone with his success, his ability and his performance ever should have been.


28.) Eli Manning

Everyone from here on out either is, will be, or should be in the Hall of Fame - and we start off with the QB who will get in but maybe shouldn't, but let's not pretend that means he isn't good. Eli Manning has been the most polarizing QB of the modern era, mainly because his play has necessitated it. How else do you explain a QB having a passer rating at the time below 80.0 winning a Super Bowl in an historic upset. How else do you explain a guy going from having one of the better full seasons when you count postseasons in 2011, to having a passer-rating under 70.0 in 2013? Eli Manning is unexplainable. At his best, he was easily a Hall of Fame worthy QB. For Eli's benefit, two of those periods of 'best' were four-game stretches in January and February. The Eli Manning regular season experience has been more or less than of a #8-#12 level QB for most of his career, but he's had enough peaks and enough handful-of-game stretches where that touches #3-#1. Eli Manning will never be underrated. Hard to be that when your best games are in your highest profile games, and your team misses the playoffs enough times that the natural regression over a bunch of playoff games (see: Rodgers, Aaron) brings that back to earth. Eli Manning has been dependable, has been very good in late-game situations, has elevated the level of his players around him, and has been able to succeed at times with marginal running games and o-lines. Succeed is a relative term, but Eli has shown an ability to do all these things at least once - and twice in January and February.


27.) Daryle Lamonica

Placing Daryl was really tough. He was really a starter for just six seasons - but then again, his fellow Raider Rich Gannon made this list with just four real seasons. Lamonica was a very accomplished player. In his Raiders career, he was 62-16-6 as a starter. He threw a bunch of TDs, didn't throw (for the 70's) that many INTs, and threw for a bunch of yards. Lamonica also held his value better than contemporary AFL QBs that made the transition into the merged NFL. Lamonica was also a great playoff QB, improving his stats across the board - including a great INT% given the era. The Raiders of that time had some great players on defense and at o-line, but this was before Casper and the only reliable option he had was Biletnikoff. Lamonica is another player who was just overlooked due to having more 'interesting' competition - mainly that of Namath. Statistically, Lamonica is better and it isn't very close. Both made a Super Bowl, and while Lamonica lost it was to one of the best teams of all time, and overall had far better playoff success. Out of the three great Raider reclamation projects (Daryl, Gannon, Plunkett), Lamonica was the best. Al Davis, Jim Otto, Gene Upshaw, Art Shell. All of these guys overshadowed Daryl, but his importance on those early Raiders teams shouild not be forgotten.


26.) Philip Rivers

In many ways, Philip Rivers is the anti-Eli Manning. Forget the fact they were basically traded for each other, but Rivers has been good in all the ways Eli has not. Rivers has been far more consistent, a more accomplished passer in statistically and performance-wise in the regular season. He has been the QB of teams that went 13-3 and 14-2. He has been on multiple occassions, one of the Top-3 QBs in the NFL (2008, 2009, 2013), including leading the league in Y/A three straight years. He's piled up 'black ink', including leading the NFL in completion percentage twice, yards once (on the way in 2015), yards per completion once, and passer rating once. He';s done it all... except have a good 3-4 game stretch in January. However, unlike Manning, or Rodgers (2011 onwards), or other guys who have not fared well in the playoffs, his stats match someone who has not been a good performer. He hasn't been unlucky, he's just been plain bad in a lot of those games. He was bad in his one-and-done's. He was gritty playing on a torn ACL in the 2007 AFC Championship, but it showed with his performance. Rivers is better than Manning because the regular season makes up 80%-90% of a player's career, but had he had Manning's playoff career, he may be well in the Top-15 of all time. People I guess feel the Manning vs. Rivers debate is over - and in a way it is. The Giants got what they wanted: 2 Super Bowls. But in terms of who was actually the better player, it was Rivers - and depending on how much you feel those 8 games matter for Eli, it ranges from a lot better to just marginally better. But either way, it was better.


25.) Warren Moon

It is hard to separate Warren Moon's playing career from his historical legacy. Warren Moon was the first African-American QB to really succeed at QB. He himself would say he was far from the first with the talent, but he was the first to truly make it. He begat Cunningham and McNabb, McNair, Culpepper, and to the point know where it isn't really a big issue. The one difference, and maybe this is why he really lasted and became such a great trailblazer, is that he wasn't played for athelticism, or as a 'dual-threat'; he was played, paid and persevered, because he was a great passer. Warren Moon came closest to making the run-and-shoot work. He had some amazing years, including the back-to-back stellar seasons in 1990-91. Despite it seeming recent, 1990-91 was a long time ago, and his 4,690 yard seasons were something out of the future at the time. Moon is a deserving Hall of Famer on his playing career alone, but his legacy gets deservedly bumped for what he represented. Let's not forget he lost years of his career playing in the CFL. His career in the NFL started at 28, he peaked at 34-35, he had a long tail to end his career of slightly mediocre play, but that peak is good enough to be one of the best 25 to date. It may have been better had he been in the NFL the whole time. In that way, his career is a lot like...


24.) Kurt Warner

No QB may have been harder to place than Warner. Let's state the facts first. Warner is a two-time league MVP. Not many QBs have done that, and the one's that have (Manning, Favre, Montana, Rodgers, Brady, Young) are, spoiler alert, in the Top-20 of this list. Warner led two moribund franchises to the Super Bowl, and put up some of the best playoff stats of all-time. Warner was the key cog in an offense that was revolutionary, that put up volume stats that hold up 15 years later in a wildly more conducive to offense era. Those are all pluses. Kurt Warner was also bad enough in 2002-03 that the Rams were almost forced to release him. It is easy to call Warner's career one of peaks and valleys, but we should qualify that. The peaks were being the best QB in the league ('99-'01), and a Top-5 QB ('07-'09), and the valleys, apart from 2002, weren't all that bad. His QB Rating+ (adjusted for league conditions), was only below 100 (average) one time in a season that he started more than 2 games. He was anywhere from 106-111 in his first three years in Arizona, where injuries held him back. Once he stayed healthy, and the team got slightly better, he was a consistent QB again. Kurt Warner was as good as we remember him at his best, but he was also better than the player we remember him being at his worst. Guys who complete 65.5% of their career passes, with a career Y/A of 7.9, and a career passer rating of 93.7, playing mostly before passing stats exploded, is a player deserving of a Hall of Fame nod. Add in the playoff dominance, two league MVPs, and you get what should be a shoo-in.


23.) Len Dawson

I'm stretching my 'Super Bowl Era' rules with this and the next pick. Len Dawson played many years before the mgerger; his best year's came right before or during the merger; his stats were not as good after the merger. Yet, there are two reasons why I want to include him, and put him so highly. First, it wasn't like he played in the 40's-50's. The per-merger AFL was far closer to the NFL than, say, the AAFC was. Second, his stats were so amazing pre-merger, far better than Namath, or Lamonica, or the other great AFL QBs. Len Dawson also didn't drop nearly as much as some of his contemporaries. Len Dawson was the Peyton Manning of the AFL, black ink on his stat page everywhere. From 1962-1968, Dawson led the NFL in completion percentage six times, passer rating six times, TDs four times, and yards per attempt three times. The league's merged the year after, and while the black ink stopped, his passer rating adjusted for era was on average 12% better than league average. Dawson dominated the AFL because that was his peak, but he was pretty darn good in the merged league, leading a Super Bowl champion that first year. Becuase he didn't win with a guarantee, he''ll always be overlooked, by Len Dawson was, and will always be, the best QB ever to play in the AFL.


22.) Sunny Jurgenson

While Dawson was dominating the AFL in the mid-60's, Jurgenson was doing the same thing to the more-established NFL. His team wasn't as good as Dallas, or Green Bay, or even the LA Rams, but the Redskins were a consistent winner without much talent surrounding good ol' Sonny Boy. Between 1961 and 1968, Jurgenson led the NFL in completions four times, yards five times, TDs three times, and passer rating twice. Jurgenson was in many ways playing a different sport than most of the other 'winner' QBs of the time, passing shorter and more accurately. Jurgenson was the player most thought Archie Manning was - a guy playing for a franchise that really didn't given him much to work with, succeeding to all-pro levels. Jurgenson retired with the all-time lead in passer rating in the modern era, and again did this without hall of famers surrounding him like the other great QBs of his day.


21.) Ken Anderson

It has become almost passe to say that Anderson is the best QB not in the Hall of Fame. He likely will get in the Hall of Fame through the Veteran's Committee sometime soon. It's good too that he will, because it is hard to argue Anderson, a man who was the first QB to thrive and play well in Bill Walsh's offense, was not deserving. Ken Anderson has done more in his career with less around him than nearly any other QB in his era. Anderson had four different seasons that would play well in the 1990's, let alone his own era. His 1974-75 seasons, are something absurd for that era, averaging 62% completions, along with Y/A above 8.0, and passer ratings around 94.0. Those were Troy Aikman seasons from 20 years later, not seasons in the heart of deadball playing for a Northern team in an open-air stadium. Anderson then almost had a Kurt Warner-esque dip in the middle of his career, but rebounded with an even better two-season stretch in 1981-82, this time he averaged a 65% completion percentage, and a 97.0 passer rating. These are not normal seasons for QBs of that day not named Marino or Montana. Anderson was also a pretty good playoff QB, with a career 93.5 rating, albeit in only 6 playoff games. Anderson did everything well, did them in different eras with different coaches, and at his best he was putting up stats that Troy Aikman would blush at. That's good enough to be in the Hall of Fame, guys.

The Top-50 QBs: #40 - #31

40.) Randall Cunningham 

Cunningham's career was defined by his amazing athleticism, the first truly transcendant running QB, one good enough to fundamentally change the way defenses tried to stop him. But behind that athleticism was a really good player who was surrounded for most of his career by awful O-Lines and marginal offensive talent in Philadelphia. For a 6-year run from 1987-1992, Cunningham was one of the best QBs in the NFL playing with no one but a coked-up Cris Carter. Randall's career rennaissance in Minnesota was more due to having Randy Moss and a non-coked-up Cris Carter who had reformed his life, but that showed what Cunningham was capable of with better talent. He had limitations like his propensity to take sacks and he melted down in a few playoff games, but Cunningham started an offensive revolution that now a few guys have taken over.


39.) Bert Jones

Here's another guy who would have been a lot better with better teammates. Bert Jones had the ability to be the best QB in the NFL, but was in a situation devoid of much talent in Baltimore in the 70's. They had left the Unitas and Shula era, and would end devolving into a situation where they moved to Indianapolis. That is the life Bert Jones had to play in, and my word was he able to play in it. His season in 1976 was one of the best dead-ball era NFL QB seasons, something that guys like Staubach, Stabler and Bradshaw would have loved to put up. To have a deserved 100+ QB rating in the 70's is like having a 115+ today. Bert Jones should have been better because he should have had better teammates, but in the 70's, if you have a bad owner who doesn't spend and a team that doesn't draft well, there's only so much you can do.


38.) Rich Gannon

Gannon's career is in a way like Kurt Warner, one with incredible highs but also significant lows. Now, it wasn't as good as Warner's when both were at their best, and unlike Warner, Gannon had a more surprising background. Warner came out of nowhere. Gannon just came out of mediocrity. For years in Minnesota and Kansas City, Rich Gannon was a mediocre, Matt Cassel-level QB. Of course, Matt Cassel wouldn't be in a Top-200 QBs list. What makes Rich Gannon special is that 4-year run in Oakland from 1999-2002, when he was a Top-25 QB of all time. Guys with multiple all-pro seasons, a deserved MVP, and a 4,600 yard passing season in 2002, are right at home in a Top-50 QBs of all time. Rich Gannon masterfully ran that offense along with Jon Gruden. He revived Tim Brown's career, extended Jerry Rice's, and turned guys like Charlie Garner and Roland Williams and Jerry Porter into legitimate threats. If you get Belichick on a good day, he will tell you how much of the Raiders short-passing game they used so well in 2002 he took and co-opted into what the Patriots have used since. Rich Gannon used so many years wandering the midwest, but in that time he cultivated enough knowledge to still run offenses to an exacting level. His downfall in '03 and '04 was shocking in how quick it was, but for a guy who's best years started when he was 34-37, it wasn't that surprising. Gannon developed slowly, but he definitely developed.


37.) Jim Hart

Don Coryell was a great coach, a legend of the game, and while he is more famously tied to a certain QB still to come, what he did along with Jim Hart was something we shouldn't easily forget. In the middle of the 70's, competing with the likes of Dallas and St. Louis and Washington and Minnesota, the St. Louis Cardinals made the playoffs three straight years, mainly off the back of Jim Hart's brilliance. This bombs away offense makes his stats look pretty average in retrospect, but the personnel he had to work with was not close to that of Dan Fouts. Air Coryell was still in the development phase during this time, and it still had to work out a lot of kinks, but Hart made it go. What Hart also did amazingly well was limit sacks; a fearless thrower that flung the ball in the face of heavy rush game after game. Jim Hart, like so many mid-70's QBs, will be lost in the annals of history, back when defense and running were still more important, but he was a guy whose career was limited by circumstance, but what he and Coryell did together cultivated what Fouts would perfect.


36.) John Hadl

10 years before Fouts exploded in San Diego, there was a QB coached by Coryell's mentor that basically did the same thing. John Hadl was great, throwing deep ball after deep ball into the waiting arms of Lance Alworth and co. He in many ways was the 60's version of Jim Hart, running an offense that was 10 years before its true prime, where both it was still in development and also ahead of the rest of the league. Hadl put up TD and Y/A numbers that were crazy for the 60's and 70's, and while he was never the most accurate, that was never really going to be a strong point for a system that relied a lot on 20-30 yard throws. Hadl will be remembered more fondly than Jim Hart and Bert Jones, other 60's-70's stars who never won a ring mainly because they never had a defense good enough, and Hadl was slightly better than those two.


35.) Steve McNair

Nothing was easy for Steve McNair. He came from a small town in Mississippi, had to play college at Division 1-AA Alcorn State, basically sat on the bench for two years, and had to be integrated to the starting line-up when his team was moving from Houston, to Memphis and finally Nashville. Through this time, McNair developed a undoing sense of leadership, commitment and intensity that if anything exceeded his already large bounty of talent. Starting in 1999, when the team finally settled on a stadium and a name that would last, it all came together. For a five year stretch, he was a Top-3 QB in the NFL - a stretch that was bookended by a Super Bowl season on one end, and an MVP season on the other. No season really said more about McNair than the 2002 team. By that point the run game with Eddie George had basically dried up, and it all was put on his shoulders. It took years of improving his craft but by then he had reached the stage that he could win games with his arms and brain. He led a Titans team from 1-4 to the AFC Championship Game, all while being somewhat banged up. That really was the lasting legacy of McNair, playing through pain, and letting his passion and poise take over. McNair's legacy is pretty well set in place. He fought an up-hill battle his whole career, but was in a rare situation that he got deserved credit for that as well. I don't think any QB got more credit for losing a Super Bowl than he did - but nothing better encapsulates McNair's career. They lost, but he left everything on the field.


34.) Matt Ryan

His career will always be undershadowed - assuming he never wins a Super Bowl - by both the plethora of all time greats whose peak he crossed paths with, and the fact that the man drafted the same year as him as won a Super Bowl. But let's not lose sight of just how good Matt Ryan has been in his career. He may never get any better than he has right now, but the number of QBs who have put up seven straight seasons ranging from good to awesome is a short list. I think his rookie season has also somehow become underrated. Michael Turner got all the headlines, but as a rookie Matt Ryan was arguably one of the 8 best QBs in the NFL. He inherited a team trying to come back from the Mike Vick mess, and with Michael Jenkins and a then unkown Roddy White, proceeded to have a really good season. Matt Ryan's criticism are obvious, in that he's had a few poor postseason games (and a few great ones), and is not as good as Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Roethlibserger, Brees. Well, most people aren't, but most QBs are also worse than Matt Ryan. Had Roddy White not slipped on what ended up being an interception, or had Harry Douglas not fallen down on a wide-open wheel route, maybe they beat San Francisco in 2012 and then beat Baltimore and he's easily a Top-30 all time. He's getting there anyway.


33.) Joe Theismann

We remember Joe Theismann for two reasons: his leg getting broken in 1985, and his (mis)adventurous broadcasting career. We should also remember him for being an excellent QB, the bridge between the 'Over-the-hill Gang' Redskins under George Allen to the Joe Gibbs era. Theismann had some of the best early-80's season aside form all-timers like Marino and Montana. His 1983 season, with 29 TDs and an 8.1 y/a is good for a 97.0 passer rating, a pristine number for that era against that competition. Sure, we are partial to other parts of the Redskins legacy for that era, like Art Monk and Gary Clark and the various Hogs, but Theismann made it work early on. While Joe Gibbs is famous for winning three Super Bowls with three QBs, he may not have needed the 2nd QB if not for Theismann's injury. His career adjusted passer rating is 14% above average, which is a really good number (all-timers are look 25% above average). Joe Theismann's personal legacy is enhanced by the bad-luck injury, but his playing career shouldn't get short-changed for that.


32.) Tony Romo

Quick, who led the NFL in passer rating in 2014? Hint: it wasn't league MVP Aaron Rodgers, he of the 38-to-5 QB to INT. No, it was Tony Romo, the guy who complted 69.9% of his passes, threw for 34 TDs on just 435 throws, and had he not gotten injured for two games, the Cowboys likely get the #1 seed, and maybe make the Super Bowl. Tony Romo's 2014 season wasn't the start of a new Romo, it was the cap to an already great career. We haven't yet reached 'Hall of Fame' territory, and Romo's outside perception of a choker probably would restrict him anyway, but with all the focus we spend on his mistakes, dating back to bobbling a field goal hold, we overlook the brilliance. Tony Romo's career stats are basically a 2000's version of Steve Young. Of course, Young doing what he did in the 90's is more impressive than Romo in the 00's-10's, but its not THAT different. Each of the 9 full years that Romo has been a starter, he has been between 6% better than league average and 30%, and more often closer to the higher number. And he's done this all on a team that mismanaged itself away from a dominant set of talent in 2008-09 to a team mostly bereft of it in 2012-13. Romo is missing a season where he may have been one of the best QBs again in the NFL, and as he closes in on 36 his years are numbered, but he's the clear 3rd best QB in Dallas Cowboys history, and there is nothing to be ashamed of for that.


31.) Joe Namath

There is no better way to trump up yourself more than be in New York and guarantee a win. That's really about it. Apart from that, it helps if you had a semi-memorable college career. I'm not saying that Joe Namath was a bad player. He wasn't; he was a very good player. But what he really is was an overrated player - if not a wildly overrated one. Joe Namath had two very good seasons, the last two seasons of the AFL before the merger. These are real seasons, worth considering. One's that ended in Super Bowls - but they still represent two seasons. He passed for 4,000 yards in one of them, becoming the first player ever to do that. Still, it is hard to look at his stats page and realize that even when you convert for 1970's offensive levels, and the fact that his teammates were not good in the 70's, and not think that this is a guy that peaked at 26. For his career, he was 2% above average in adjusted passer rating, but that number is closer to 10% if you take away the last three years of his career when he was a mess. At his best, Joe Namath was a very good player, a legendary QB. Problem was 'his best' was far shorter than people remember.

The Top-50 QBs: #50 - #41

Re-posting all of these ahead of #11 as we head into the Top-10

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I'm looking to do columns on all my Top-20, as I think they are all worthy, and start off with three posts over the next week or so with my #50-21. I haven't thought too much about these first 30, but I think they all fit.

Again, this is the Super Bowl era only, but I will consider the pre-Super Bowl of people that crossed over, like Fran Tarkenton or Johnny Unitas. But there's no Red Grange or Sammy Baugh or Otto Graham. Anyway, let's get to #50-41

50.) Andrew Luck
49.) Cam Newton
48.) Russell Wilson

I'm going to have little sections on all the QBs from 47-1, and probably separate posts for my Top-20, but I'll put these three. If you asked me to rank, at this exact moment, the 50 best QBs of all time, they don't make it. But unless they pull a Chris Borland and retire, they will. QB is so hard, so incredibly difficult that if you limit yourself to just the Super Bowl era, it is tough to come up with 50, and these three easily fit the bill. Yes, Andrew Luck is struggling right now, while Cam Newton and Russell Wilson completed excellent 2015 seasons, but all three are good enough to easily make this list with just 4-5 more years of any sort of production.


47.) Dave Krieg

My number 48 was a Seahawk. Quick spoiler, but my #46 is a Seahawk, but in between is the forgotten Seahawk. Most people will probably remember Jim Zorn over Krieg, but Dave Krieg, much like another Dave that was famous in the Emerald City, could do a few things really well. One is throw deep and the other is throw TDs. People like the use the black ink test, which is how many times a player led the league in anything, and Krieg has more black ink than you would think. He led the NFL in TD% three times, and led in completion percentage one year. For a guy who had limited team success, he also had limited team embarrassment, going 98-77 for his career as a starter, including 70-49 with Seattle. Krieg is now the third best QB in franchise history, but a franchise that did so little before Mike Holmgren came on board, that's a better position than you would think. Krieg had a really nice 4-5 year peak, and a long tail period that hurts his rate stats, but he's honestly perfectly at home in a Top-50 QB list, and through the period of this paragraph I've started to feel that I've underrated him.


46.) Matt Hasselbeck

Matthew had a really nice 5-year run with Seattle, with some good half-season performances in the two years preceding that, and a two-week renaissance in the 2010 playoffs. He's now doing what a lot of players on this list wouldn't do: live on as a backup, one without real hope of playing unless Andrew Luck gets hurt. Still, what he did in those five seasons, leading the Seahawks to five straight playoff seasons, and putting up nice playoff stats in taking them to their first Super Bowl, gets him his spot on the list. Matthew Hasselbeck passed Mark Brunell as the best ex-Favre backup (non-Rodgers edition) and it was a reunion with Holmgren that made it happen. He was a weird player who played and carried himself like an underdog despite him being one of the league's best and most present QBs for a 5-year period. He threw in a weird way that belied an actual brilliant arm that could throw with incredible touch. He was limited in part by a system that was slowly getting figured out, in part by receivers that could never stay healthy, and mostly in part by receivers that when healthy dropped the ball, a lot. Still, his memory should live on as a true professional. QBs that put up 5-year runs like Matt did from '03-'07 are not that common.


45.) Jim Everett

Life isn't fair, and Everett staying on the Rams after they lost all their good players and collapsing until they would eventually move to St. Louis isn't fair, because it ruined the legacy of a guy who was good enough to lead the NFL in TDs in 1988 and 1989. Now, if Joe Montana was healthy enough to play 16 games, that doesn't happen, but at his best Everett was the standout player on offense for a playoff team. At his best Jim Everett was a really good QB, but one that will be remembered more because he threw a table at Jim Rome. To talk about that for a minute, obviously Everett came across poorly, as the prototypical 'dumb jock' with teh short fuse; but no one came across worse than Jim Rome, who kept on repeating that blindingly dumb 'Chris' line. Of course, the worst part of this whole thing was that Jim Everett should have taken it as a compliment, as Chris Evert is so much more accomplished than he is as a QB (or Rome as a broadcaster), no one should feel more insulted than her.


44.) Jim Plunkett

This is controversial as Plunkett was a plainly bad QB for a 5-6 year stretch with New England, even if you use 1970's passing adjustments. He was just bad, posting a passer rating just under 60. However, with Oakland, it all turned around. Still, his overall stats aren't great in totality, but Oakland didn't play a passer-rating friendly style with deep throws in a league that was becoming more addicted to teh Walsh-ian way. However, Plunkett does have those Super Bowl runs. I'm not in the mindset that Super Bowl and/or Playoff stats should completely outweight what one does in the regular season, but it does matter that Plunkett was great in the Raiders two Super Bowl runs, including a deserved Super Bowl MVP in 1980. The Raiders post Plunkett were mired in the QB wasteland until another outcast came and rescued them 15 years later (he's still to come), but the man who saw out the great Raiders era of dominance deserves a spot on this last, if only as the 1980's slightly less good Eli Manning.


43.) Joe Flacco

Pro-Football-Reference has a stat called Rating+, which normalizes passer rating by Era, much like OPS+ and ERA+ in baseball. There's some flaws with it since passer rating itself is an inherently flawed metric, but I like that Joe Flacco is a perfect 100 for his career. That is not great, obviously. There are caveats. For years, because of the high price of keeping Lewis/Reed/Suggs/Ngata/et. al., around, he was never surrounded with top flight talent, and because there are two outlier seasons pulling that down (he's above 100 in four of his six full seasons). But here's where playoffs come in again. Flacco is somewhat overrated in the playoffs, as he was largely awful in his first five playoff games (he went 3-2), especially the hilarous line of 4-10, 36 yards and an INT in a win (by 19 pounts!) on the road. But since the 2010 season, he has been a great playoff QB in really every way. He's had an incredible Super Bowl run, nearly beat the Patriots two other times, nearly outplaying Tm Brady each time, and has generally done all of this on the road. Regular Season weighs more heavily as we go up the list, but back here when there are so many players with checkered regular seasons, a few dominant postseason runs are helpful.


42.) Roman Gabriel

He's the first of a handful of QBs who have a large chunk of their career that played out before the Super Bowl era. I am counting those stats and team results as legitimate if it came in the NFL (and not AFL), so that helps Gabriel a lot here. His stats weren't as good as his contemporaries, and his early career instructions were basically to not screw up and allow the Fearsome Foursome to do their thing. There were so many more storied teams in the NFL/NFC at the time in Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, and the Colts for the beginning bit, that Gabriel's mad-bomber exploits are somewhat forgotten. But all that should change by his two great seasons. In 1969, he had a INT% of 1.8%, which is a number that would be great in 2015, let alone 1969. Then, in 1973, for a bad Eagles team, he led the league in everything, putting up one of the best dead-ball (1969-1979) era QB seasons. Gabriel is easily the best Rams QB before Warner, and still has enough of that mythic status to make up for a bad tail end.


41.) Phil Simms

Phil Simms is a strange player who's memory is enhanced by the talent that was on his teams (mostly on defense), and that incredible 22-25 performance in the Super Bowl. He was mostly useless in all his other playoff seasons, but his 1986 set of games, including that Super Bowl, was Flacco in 2012-level. Then again, Simms was largely a better regular season QB than people remember. With limited offensive talent, he was a consistently good player for a long time. From 1984 through his retirement in 1993, his lowest passer rating was 74.6, after that was 78.1. He had a passer rating+ above 100 every year but his first two seasons. The only things to take away are that he was asked to do basically nothing, and he took a lot of sacks (something not reflected in that passer rating stat). Phil Simms is a better QB than people think, but let's not also overstate the 22-25 game. He wasn't a mediocre player with one great game, but he wasn't a truly great player either. That's an important distinction to make some times.

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conference Finals Picks

Eastern Conference Finals

(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins

The State of the Teams: The Penguins are a really interesting team that find themselves here after years of playoff disappointments. Let's remember one year ago they had an incredibly sullen 5-game loss to the New York Rangers - things can really change in 12 months. The Penguins built their dynamite third line of Kessel - Bonigno - Hagelin all off of trades, and its allowed them to feast of weaker defenseman with Crosby and Malkin on other groups. The Penguins overall team speed is downright scary, and they are fully healthy after some injuries and suspensions muddled the middle of the Capitals series. As for the Lightning, well they are not so healthy. While reports are that Anton Stralman will definitely be back in the series, and there is a decent chance if we get to a Game 5 and beyond that Stamkos is as well, those two guys are not starting it out. JT Brown is also a question-mark and his presence forces Cooper to break up that great checking line. The Lightning, amazingly, are probably healthier now than they have been at any point in the playoffs, and if they can survive the early part of the series, they will start to get really healthy.

The Matchup: It is really hard to pick this series without knowing when of Stralman and / or Stamkos will return. It is truly impressive how well Tampa Bay has done without those two, going 8-2 in the playoffs. But in all honesty they had the easiest run to the NHL's Final-4 than any of the other three teams. The depth issues that are created by moving guys up to unnatural positions, or depending so much on Drouin, will catch up more in this series than in the past two. The Penguins can sacrafice one of the three lines to Hedman - who is a monster - and another to the triplets, and still have a dynamite third line. On the goalie end, quietly Ben Bishop has been great once again in these playoffs. If he can outplay Matt Murray, and the triplets can win their personal battle, the Lightning have a chance. If they can hold serve until Stramlan or Stamkos return, they have a real chance.

The Pick: Penguins in 7 - In the end, I just think the Penguins are a little deeper, a little better, and I don't trust Stralman and Stamkos to come back and start playing with Conference Finals intensity. In what was a really up and down season, with the specter of Stamkos's Free Agency and then blood clots hanging over them, the Lightning have accomplished a lot by getting to this point. The Penguins have something special going, and I think the Lightning give them a great fight, but just not enough.

Western Conference Finals

(P3) San Jose Sharks vs (C2) St. Louis Blues

The State of the Teams: This is being billed as the battle of the chokers, which team will truly shed their label as consistent playoff disappointments and actually make a Stanley Cup Final. In that sense, that isn't a fair comparison. The Blues have only been losing playoff series for six years now. The Sharks, with Marleau and Thornton, have done it for 10. The Sharks have even been this far before, reaching the Conference Finals in both 2010 and 2011, winning a total of one game in those series. Both teams are essentially fully healthy at this point, but the Blues may have some fatigue start setting in at this point, playing two tough, hard 7-game series. They really should have ended the Stars series in 6 games and not need to go back to Dallas. The Sharks can roll their lines well, and the move of Marleau up to the second line with Doonskoi and Couture has worked really well. The Blues have done a little line switching as well, and the key is hiding Backes to where his drop in form won't hurt them too much. These are two deep, healthy teams that are set up really well to give us fans a truly great series.

The Matchup: Both teams are incredibly deep, the Blues probably better on the blue line and the Sharks better up front. The Sharks fourth line of Wingels - Spalling - Tierney has been brilliant in the playoffs, and even the infusion of Dainus Zubrus when Matt Nieto went down has worked well. The Blues have had a rougher go at times generating offense, but the step-up of both Joel Edmunsson and Colton Parayko have made their d-core truly five deep of solid to great players. The Blues could have a relative advantage in net, with Brian Elliott having been great throughout the playoffs while Jones has been more up-and-down, but the Sharks have the better special teams. Their powerplay has been absolutely bonkers two straight series. That first grouping of Burns - Thornton - Couture - Marleau - Pavelski is truly special. The Blues will have to rely on their depth to win some of the battles against the Sharks lesser lines and stay out of the box, which has often been an issue.

The Pick: Sharks in 6 - The Sharks have been really special in these playoffs. They dominated the Kings in a way that was incredible given the Kings own potency. They played a Nashville team that was a lot better than anyone realized (seriously, they are dangerous next year) and easily could have won six of the seven games - losing twice in OT. The Sharks are on a roll right now, and while the Blues are too good to get pushed away easily, I think the Sharks depth, powerplay, and a good series from Jones, gives them their first trip to the Cup Final.

The Charmed Life of the Aging Star

For years, Joe Thornton lived a charmed life. He's a giant, handsome guy, married to a beautiful woman, paid greatly for his ability as a peerless puck possession and passing purist. His team was generally successful enough to have his team in the playoffs, and more often than not winning at least one round or two.

However, all of those years they never won a third round, never won the Western Conference, and often flamed out to worse teams than them, often in bizarre, depressing circumstances. Joe Thornton, the man drafted #1 overall by Boston, and then shipped out of Boston to a team he would win the Hart Trophy (MVP) for, was the face of playoff disasters, the face of the team, the organization, and truthfully, the player who folded in the playoffs.

Somewhere around the time the team missed the playoffs for the first time in his San Jose run, and where we sit today with the Sharks again one game away from the Western Conference Finals, the hockey world has collectively decided to love Thornton for the guy he is in that first paragraph and forget about all the ills spelled out in the second. Joe Thornton, having one of his best seasons at age 35, has had his public perception completely swing around. He is now truly living a charmed life, the guy everyone wants to see lift that Cup.

This isn't an idea native to hockey, the one of the aging star suddenly being the apple of everyone's eye, but it seems to be more present in hockey than others. Joe Thornton is the latest in the longest line of players who moved from playoff failure to lovable loser in the eyes of the public. The most famous example is Ray Borque, long the face of playoff failures in Boston, traded as a mercenary to a loaded team in Colorado, but that's the lesser example, where Borque was handed the title (literally so, with Sakic, a Hall of Fame star in his own right, quickly passing it to Borque when they won). Thornton is still leading that team, and doing so with finally the appreciation of the public he deserves.

In some ways, this happened very recently, with one old (pun intended) Peyton Manning, a legendary player known for his playoff failures, but was during that last run people started pulling for him. I heard so many previous Manning haters saying they wanted to see Manning win his second. Here it is Thornton and his first. Age allows people to look past the failures, the perceived lack of abilities and clutch, and let people focus on what they witnessed - an incredible, long, Hall-of-Fame to be career.

Joe Thornton is that guy this time. Everyone wants to see him win, and in that way he is again the face of the Sharks, as some of that goes for the whole group. No team has suffered the odd sports fate for being so good to consistently disappoint than the Sharks have. Starting with their run to the 2003-04 Western Conference Finals - the year Marleau broke out - the Sharks made the playoffs 10 straight times. This is year 12 of that era, and they finally have a really good chance to do it. It isn't only Thornton, but Marleau, the guy who was first stripped of his captaincy in Year 7 of the run, or Pavelski and Couture, who have been there since Year 5, or even Brent Burns. The Sharks are full of those stories, Thornton just happens to be the best one.

The Sharks may not win, in fact their shock loss to Nashville in Game 6 puts them in a situation where it is more likely they add another horrible playoff loss to their personal pyre than win 9 more games and lift the Cup. But still, the lasting memory of the collective hockey world getting behind this tragic figure should be remembered. Especially since Thornton's not done. He may have a few years left as seen by this past season, but the shift is here to stay.

Even if they lose in Game 7, even if they don't but lose in the next round or the next, the people that appreciated him won't stop. Joe Thornton is one of the great players of his generation. He is the best pure passer to come into the league since 2000. He is a sure-fire Hall of Famer, and in his aging years, people are finally looking past his team's issues in the playoffs to realize that he was that guy all along.

Was Pep Guardiola a Failure at Bayern

With Bayern Munich bowing out of the Champions League yesterday on away goals to Atletico Madrid - making an amazing second final in three years - and essentially ending the run of Pep Guardiola's time at Bayern Munich, the question has been asked: was Pep Guardiola a failure at Bayern?

To reset, Guardiola took over Bayern Munich in the 2013-2014 - this after sitting out a year after voluntarily leaving Barcelona due to burnout following the 2011-12 season. That season marked the first time in his run at Barcelona that the Blaugrana would not win the La Liga title (Mourinho's Real Madrid did), and the team was shockingly beaten in the Champions League Semifinals by Chelsea, a team that would finish in 6th position in the Premier League that season.

The team that Pep inherited had just won the Treble, storming to the Bundesliga Title, clinching in early April. While Bayern closely beat Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) Final in what was an excellent game highlighting peak German football, the real showcase what Bayern's 7-0 aggregate hammering of Barcelona in the semifinals. Bayern was coached by Jupp Heynckes, who was at best retiring or at worst being pushed out the door for the best coach on the market.

In came Pep, as the person that would infuse this incredible talented team that won on its cutting skill and physicality (to watch them pound Barca in the 2013 UCL Semi was incredible) with his patented, legendary tiki-taka style. Three years later, Pep Guardiola is leaving to conquer his next country, taking over the Man City job for next season. In his time at Bayern, he won the league three times (assuming they win this upcoming game), and reached three straight UCL Semifinals. But more notably, they've lost all three of those. All three to each of the Big-3 Spanish Giants. And that is the conundrum - in the modern soccer world, for a team with all the resources that Bayern had, it is hard to call Pep's time as anything but a failure.

Here is the key, many managers could have matched Pep's results. There is a long list of maangers that would have won the Bundesliga the last three years. Pep spent loads of money making the match his vision - this included raiding the only real competition in Germany, Borussia Dortmund, of its two most high-profile attacking players. Bayern faced basically no real competition in Germany, an increasingly one-team league.

What Pep needed to do to set himself apart, or match the ludicrously high expectations he had when he took over hte job, was to win the Champions League. Not only did he not do that, he didn't even make the final once. Bayern Munich had made the Final in 2010, 2012 and 2013, winning the last two. In 2012, Bayern made the final by beating Real Madrid in the Semifinals, including winning a penalty shootout at the Bernabeu. In 2013, the aforementioned massacre of Barcelona occured. In Guardiola's first two years, his UCL campaign ended losing meekly to those two very same teams.

Guardiola put his stamp on the team, but he really is tied down by his style of play. It is a ruthlessly effective side, for sure, but these weren't the right players. The best aspects of Bayern in their treble winning season was their efficient, direct attack play. That is not the highlight of the tiki-taka approach. It is a credit to the talents of the Bayern players they were able to more or less undertake playing in this way and cruising domestically. The only piece was it fell apart against the top teams in Europe.

Guardiola could arguably get a pass for his 5-3 aggregate loss to Barcelona in the 2015 UCL Semifinal (they lost the first leg 3-0 away). His team was mightily injured and shorthanded. But his failure against Atletico, particularly his team selection in the first leg, and the embarrasment that was the 2014 UCL loss to Real, are black marks against him.

In 2014, it was striking. One year after beating Barcelona 4-0 in the Semifinal leg played in Munich by playing sweeping counter-attacking football against Barcelona's possession heavy style (still coached by the late Tito Villanova, Pep's right hand man) his team lost to Real Madrid 4-0 in the Semifinal leg played in Munich with Real Madrid playing very much like Bayern did the year before.

Pep Guardiola is far more like the man he had some infamously heated matches against in his La Liga days: Jose Mourinho. The 'Chosen One' is too never truly happy in any one place, and forces his style on his teams - though Mourinho's style is more malleable. Pep's is not. It works, to be sure, and in no way is three straight league titles and semifinals a bad run, but it was never right for that team.

Looking back a couple years, Pep's run in Bayern coincided with Mourinho's second run in Chelsea. I really wish each coach took over each other's team. Mourinho was the far better fit for Bayern's team at the time, as he made some incredible music at Chelsea, Inter and Real Madrid with physically gifted, strong teams like that version of Bayern. Chelsea, who had some more diminutive but highly skilled players (Hazard, Oscar, etc.) would have been a natural fit for Pep. Both tenures ended with a sense of dissatisfaction.

Pep Guardiola is a great coach, and I expect him to do well in Man City. I also expect Carlo Ancelotti to do really well with Bayern Munich. What Pep really has to hope for, though, is Man City to lose today to Real Madrid and not go through to the final. It would be awful symmetry for Guardiola to have to, again, take over the reigning European Champions. It was Bayern's own performance in the years before Pep that contribute greatly to the legitimate argument that as trophy-filled as it was, Pep's three year sojourn in Germany was a failure.

Grading the 1st Round of the 2016 NFL Draft

Grading the draft is somewhat pointless. No one really knows how these players will turn out. No one knows anything really. If you look back at any draft grade report from the day after a draft from five years ago, I'm sure it would look very strange. Five years ago is an interesting one. The 2011 draft was one of the greatest infusions of talent the sport has ever seen. The first seven picks are all studs:

1.) Cam Newton
2.) Von Miller
3.) Marcell Dareus
4.) AJ Green
5.) Patrick Peterson
6.) Julio Jones
7.) Aldon Smith (when he was good)

There's no miss in there, but of course people dinged Carolina for going after a high variance choice at QB and pilloried the Falcons for trading essentially giving the Browns their 2012 first rounder - which was used to pick Brandon Weeden. Guess what, the Falcons won that deal.

Grading the draft is pointless even moreso because most people don't have any clue who these guys are beyond like pick #30, apart from a few stragglers and random objects of fancy.

That all said.... here are my draft grades for all the first round picks! I tried to be more objective in terms of grading fit vs. need and where each team is in their development pattern.


1.) St. Louis Rams select Jared Goff (QB, Cal)  -  Grade: B

If Jared Goff is a Matt Ryan at QB, this is an A. Those type of guys are worth tarding the haul that the Rams did to go from 15(!) to 1. Put it this way, the Rams themselves got far more in the RGIII trade when Washington was going from 6 to 2. The Rams definitely have needs beyond QB, but no need is bigger or greater. I fully question whether the people there can get the most out of him, but the pick and given the Rams situation in a new market and close enough to smell a wild card spot, the pick and trade is more defensible than most.


2.) Philadelphia Eagles select Carson Wentz (QB, ND State)  -  Grade: C

Here's the reasons why I'm more down on Philadelphia than I was on St. Louis. First, the Eagles are further away from contention, entering a rebuilding phase under new direction after losing Chip Kelly. Second, You gave a ton of money to Sam Bradford and to Chase Daniels. If one of those two works, great. If not, you can pick a QB really high in a year or two when those guys are off the books and there are better prospects. And third, Wentz's strengths don't seem to mesh well with what is needed in Pederson's offense. I may be proven wrong, but I am not a real fan of the Wentz pick.


3.) San Diego Chargers select Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)  -  Grade: B

I get the criticisms of the pick, that Bosa does not fit their defense, that he has a limited ceiling (though an admitted high floor), but I don't pay them much heed. It is clear the Chargers saw Bosa as their #1 player on their board. Maybe he isn't a natural fit in their defense, but then you can always adjust the defense. The Chargers are thinking long term here. They don't have the Cowboys luck of explaining away a 4-12 record on an injured QB. There are many problems there, and they see Bosa as the best guy to them that can contribute in 2019-2022. I respect that decision making process.


4.) Dallas Cowboys select Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)  -  Grade: D

Honestly. I hate this pick. I don't much believe that a RB is useless or that you can pick one on the street. We just saw Carolina ride a run-first attack to a 500-point season. That said, the reason you draft three lineman in the 1st round and create this monster o-line is so you don't need to spend the #4 pick on a RB when you have serious holes on defense. I love that the reasoning is they went 12-4 in 2014 when Demarco Murray was healthy. First, Murray himself was a 2nd round pick. And second, they went 12-4 in 2014 because Romo was the most efficient QB in the league. The reason 12-4 became 4-12 is not the loss of Murray, it was the loss of Romo and Dez.


5.) Jacksonville Jaguars select Jalen Ramsay (CB, Florida State)  -  Grade: A

The league's trendy sleeper is Oakland, a team that two years in a row got a player that was one of the top prospects in the draft because he fell. In 2014, it was Khalil Mack, who fell to #5 after the Jags picked Bortles and the Bills traded up for Watkins. In 2015, it was Amari Cooper, who fell to #4 after the QBs went #1-2. The Jags essentially did the same thing. The two QBs going ahead of their slot at #1-2 essentially guaranteed them a really good pick, and the Cowboys taking Elliott gave them one of the consensus top talents. Great pick, now they have to turn him into what he can be like the Raiders have done with Mack and are doing with Cooper.


6.) Baltimore Ravens select Ronnie Stanley (T, Notre Dame)  -  Grade: B

OK, I guess I have to talk about the Tunsil issue. I honestly want to give the teams a break. I truly believe it that video was released one week before the draft, Tunsil goes as high as this pick, and definitely doesn't slide to #13. Having it be released literally as the draft was beginning gave the teams no real time to plan, or even investigate the situation. To me, the bigger story isn't that he lit up, it is that there are people in his life so against him to sabotage him. Anyway, for the Ravens, who got a rare opportunity to pick a premier player, they did get a guy they can reasonably say was tied with Tunsil on their board. In fairness, I heard that there were teams that had Stanley above Tunsil before the bong video came out. After a couple exoduses, O-Line was definitely a need also.


7.) San Francisco 49ers select DeForest Buckner (DE, Oregon)  -  Grade: A-

I have no idea if he is a good player, but the pick made a ton of sense. The 49ers have seen so much attrition for their once great defense, and Buckner projects as a really high-impact player. I will have a lot to say of their second first round selection, but for now I understand completely the pick, the reasoning and the fit.


8.) Tennessee Titans select Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State)  -  Grade: C

OK, this is where the Tunsil issue gets more interesting. There were already rumors the Titans would consider using some of the capital acquired from the Eagles trade to move back up if Tunsil fell, and they did that... but didn't pick Tunsil? No one had Conklin ahead of Tunsil as far as I can tell. Plus, the Titans gave up a 3rd and a 2nd for this pick. I understand the position importance, but really? I hesitate to say this because they have more information than we do, but there is a reasonably chance Conklin is available lower than 8.


9.) Chicago Bears select Leonard Floyd (OLB, Georgia)  -  Grade: A-

Again, I have no idea if he will be good, but just like Buckner, the pick makes total sense. The Bears need a 3-4 OLB presence to play in Vic Fangio's defense. They have a guy who has all the physical talents. They did give up a 4th rounder to move from #11 to #9, but the indication is the Giants were going to pick Floyd, so I am fine with that move. The Bears get a nice player to fill an immediate need and be a fixture long term. No real issues.


10.) New York Giants select Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)  -  Grade: C-

The Giants, it seems, were going to pick Conklin or Floyd and it seems everyone knew, as the two teams who got those guys jumped them to do so. The Giants then were left scrambling, and someone decided on a guy most had as either the 4th or 5th best D-Back in the draft? Eli Apple is a fascinating story, what with the whole 'he doesn't know how to cook!' meme that was so great early in draft, but he was not the consensus best QB available, and the this was not particularly a position of need for the Giants. The best that can be said is that they were caught off-guard with the Titans and Bears moves and panicked and took the best guy on their board, who happened to not be the best on anyone else's.


11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Vernon Hargreaves (CB, Florida)  -  Grade: B+

The beneficiary of the Giants move was Tampa Bay, who took a guy they arguably would have taken in their original slot at #9, definitely the consensus #2 CB on the board and best after Ramsey. Hargreaves looks like a nice player. The only reason I ding the pick is this isn't the highest need, and since the team still looks to run Cover-2 principles, CB isn't the highest value position in that defense. They desperately need pass rushers, and they could have traded down again to where the puss rushers sat and stockpiled more picks. Anyway, decent value at #11.


12.) New Orleans Saints select Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville)  -  Grade: A-

For once, the Saints didn't mess around with a RB or WR, or even a Corner, which has long been a pet favorite of the Loomis / Payton duo. Instead, they took a guy who was in this range on most boards and fit a position of serious need. The defense could upgrade basically everywhere, but Rankins as a potential pocket-pusher was a key one they just had to address. They also have to start thinking of life after Brees, so I'm happy they went for a player at a position that could help bolster the defense if and when the offense starts to lag as Brees ages / retires / leaves.


13.) Miami Dolphins select Laremy Tunsil (T, Ole Miss)  -  Grade: A+

The Dolphins really were the big winners. Sure, Tunsil could be a Justin Blackmon where the fears become a larger, sadder reality and he's effectively out of the league because of substance abuse. Or, he could be a Randy Moss or Warren Sapp and end up having a hall of fame career. Or be somewhere in between. Anyway, this is excellent value for a guy who was a serious contender for #1 overall before the QB trades and the gas masks. Also, this completes the offseason trade with Philadelphia, which ends up being the #8 pick, for Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell (two overpaid, if still effective players) and #13, and at #13 they picked a guy they were probably thinking wouldn't be available at #8 when they traded it away!


14.) Oakland Raiders select Karl Joseph (S, West Virginia)  -  Grade: B-

Apparently, Joseph was seen as a sure-fire first rounder midway through last college season before he got injured. The Raiders clearly believe he is over the injury and drafted him where he would have gone if healthy. Either they knew other teams felt the same way, or Reggie McKenzie passed up the opportunity to trade back. It go with the latter, as generally McKenzie has been loathe to do so. Anyway, Joseph projects as a great complement to what the Raiders are building on that defense. I had a dream when Tunsil started falling that the Raiders could get a falling superstar three straight years, instead they went with something of a boom or bust choice.


15.) Cleveland Browns select Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)  -  Grade: B

I give the Browns credit for consistently trading down and stockpiling picks. I do warn that before we heap praise on them for doing so, what is more important is who they got from those moves. The same thing happened with the Baalke / Harbaugh 49ers, who spend their trove of picks on high-upside, injury concerned guys who mostly all failed (Tank Carradine, etc.). Anyway, the Browns needed a receiver and got some additional value, but from reading what type of player Coleman is, I fear they got a better version of what they already have at WR, and not a larger, bigger-bodied type who could complement that.


16.) Detroit Lions select Taylor Decker (T, Ohio State)  -  Grade: B-

I have no real thoughts on this pick. I guess o-line is a place of need. I guess Decker was projected to go around here. I am a bit surprised they didn't go WR to try to begin to replace Calvin's value, especially since picking a WR wouldn't have been a huge reach. Guessing they just went by their board and picked a 'safe' lineman.


17.) Atlanta Falcons select Keanu Neal (S. Florida)  -  Grade: C

I also have no real thoughts on this pick, or to be more accurate, no positive thoughts. I guess safety is a need, but the Falcons have spent a lot of capital on the secondary recently. Other than last year's underwhelming return from Vic Beasley, they haven't up front. The key of Dan Quinn's Seattle defense was the corners to a point, but largely the success of their d-line. The Falcons could have used some of the bevy of pass rush options here to beef up their most glaring weakness instead of slightly overdraft a safety.


18.) Indianapolis Colts select Ryan Kelly (C, Alabama)  -  Grade: B+

There seems to be two schools of thought about the Kelly pick. The first is those that are just so damn happy the Colts picked a lineman to help protect Andrew Luck. Then there are those that realize a lot of Luck's protection issues are self inflicted and interior o-line is relatively poor value. I'm somewhere in the middle. I saw the value that Jeff Saturday brought to the Colts, or even Ryan Kalil as the fulcrum of the Panthers' o-line last year. A very good center is worth more than a very good guard in a lot of intangible ways. If he is that type of player, this is a good pick. I still would have preferred defense here, as that is still the weak link against any competent offense.


19.) Buffalo Bills select Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson)  -  Grade: A-

Shaq Lawson is a tremendous talent who should seem like a natural fit to tear off the edge of the Bills 3-4 defense. Rex Ryan's stuff never really worked with Mario Williams, but Lawson projects really nicely. Some of the Ryan shine is starting to dwindle, especially when he inherited a great defense and turned them into an average one, but the Bills got a really nice player who when focused and motivated can be dominant. It remains to be seen if Rex can turn him into that, though.


20.) New York Jets select Darron Lee (OLB, Ohio State)  -  Grade: A-

I believe the Jets plan is to turn Lee into an inside linebacker, which makes more sense from a need perspective. Not sure I totally like converting a player's position like that, but the Jets, dating back to the height of the Rex era with David Harris and Demorrio Davis and their ilk, have never had true speed in inside linebacker. Lee presents that option. He was projected to go even above this, so this was good value for the Jets as well. They are building a really great, on paper, defense and this is another piece for the chessmaster that is Todd Bowles to play with.


21.) Houston Texans select Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame)  -  Grade: B+

The way I remember WRs is that Coleman was the short one, Treadwell the slow, big one, and Fuller is the speedy one. I don't know if the Texans really needed the speedy one, though. They have DeAndre Hopkins on one side, and while there is definitely a need to pair someone there, I really don't know if Fuller is the right guy. Then again, he was seen as right there with those other two and Josh Doctson, so I can't fault the Texans for the value. I can at least look at them skeptically for trading up one slot for this. I guess their fear was the Redskins would draft Fuller.


22.) Washington Redskins select Josh Doctson (WR, TCU)  -  Grade: B

Those fears seem to be unfounded, because if they wanted Fuller they would have just stayed. Anyway, from the extremely limited film (aka highlights) I watched, I liked Doctson the best out of the big-4 receivers. The Redskins, though, don't really need a receiver, at least right now. Doctson projects as DeSean Jackson's replacement, but for now they have just added a piece to a crowded offense when their defense is sorely in need of some additional youth. I trust in Scott McLoughlan, and he generally has drafted for need, which is why I'm thinking my view of the Redskins is off.


23.) Minnesota Vikings select Laquon Treadwell (WR, Ole Miss)  -  Grade: A

I personally like Treadwell. I generally like the guys with high production and big frames that are slightly slow. The best case is Larry Fitzgerald of course. The worst case is pretty bad, but most of these guys (Anquan Boldin is another) end up doing pretty well. The real kicker here is that the Vikings really needed this type of player. Their passing offense was miserable last year, they need someone reliable for Bridgewater to throw to. The Vikings had few other glaring needs so this was a really nice pick.


24.) Cincinnati Bengals select William Jackson (CB, Houston)  -  Grade: B

Apparently the Bengals really wanted a WR and were the ones left without their player when the music stopped having three straight WRs go off the board before them. Instead, they did what they do so often, pick a corner. Their secondary depth has long been the secret to the Bengals defensive success in the Dalton era, so I don't mind the choice. A lot of their guys are aging (Pacman, etc) and while they have to former first round picks getting moved in, the oldest of those (Dre Kirkpatrick) may be out also. They keep their rotation going, eschewing larger current needs I guess.


25.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Artie Burns (CB, Miami)  -  Grade: C

From what I read this was a serious overdraft, and if anything a reaction to years of negative pressed lobbed towards Pittsburgh for not picking a CB for years and going with guys like William Gay and Bryant McFadden. Well, they picked a CB this time, just happened to also overdraft wildly to get one. The only reason the grade isn't any lower is because this is a desperate need of theirs, but there were clear better options on the board even at CB.


26.) Denver Broncos select Paxton Lynch (QB, Memphis)  -  Grade: A-

I have no idea if Paxton Lynch will be a good player. All I know is the Broncos were in a completely unique circumstance to make this type of pick and easily get away with it. Instead of pulling a Jaguars circa 2011 and trading up to #10 to get Gabbert, they traded up five spots, gave up one third round pick, to get a QB who can be groomed and enter a perfect situation. The Broncos have few actual needs beyond a QB. They needed something more than Mark Sanchez to sell their fans. They have a proven track record of being able to compensate for iffy QB play. This is a team that is good, will remain reasonably good, getting a guy they want who can help when the defense gets 20% worse to the point where they need good QB play again. If you look up 'Calculated Risk', this is what you see.


27.) Green Bay Packers select Kenny Clark (DT, UCLA)  -  Grade: B+

The biggest criticism is I heard this was a pretty clear overdraft, but given BJ Raji's retirement, this is a clear area of need for Green Bay. There were multiple options at DT, so I trust Ted Thompson went with the one that was highest on the Packers board. Hard to really argue with the track record he has of these types of picks. I'm just happy they didn't go with their umpteenth highly drafted o-lineman - they just waited to the 2nd round to do that.


28.) San Francisco 49ers select Joshua Garnett (G, Stanford)  -  Grade: D

I gave no 'F's' this year, but this probably came closest. The 49ers essentially gave up the same value that Denver did to trade up. Denver traded up to get a QB. The 49ers traded up to get a Guard, one who most had with a 2nd round grade at best. I have to assume there was another team that expressed interest in trading up for Garnett, because otherwise this is both against Baalke's past philosophy of not trading and a ludicrous pick. It does continue Kelly's love of Pac-12 players, even now when we've gotten past the point of him having recruited, coached against any of these guys in college. Look, the 49ers spent years trading down and taking falling, high-pedigree players and that never paid off. Maybe this will?


29.) Arizona Cardinals select Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Ole Miss)  -  Grade: A

It is ironic that the Cardinals picked Nkemdiche in the spot that was originally New England's, because Nkemdiche, a super talented player that fell because of some strange 'character concerns', is exactly the type of guy New England would have lapped up after the field said no thanks. Arizona, as seen by Tyrann Mathieu previously, is that team as well. I can see him doing great things in Arizona, where he also helps fill a glaring need in terms of improving that pass rush. Love the pick for a team that is getting scarily good at team building.


30.) Carolina Panthers select Vernon Butler (DT, LA Tech)  -  Grade: B

Part of this grade is pure 'In Gettleman and Rivera I trust' but I do understand the thinking, and more than that the thinking not to go and get a Norman replacement. In 2013, the Panthers defense was every bit as good, if not better, than it was in this past season, and Josh Norman was a non-factor. They've churned through scores of guys in the secondary and at minimum been passable. They feel they can replace Norman in house. What they realize is the d-line is the key (apart from having a stud in Kuechly), and while they have two capable D-Tackles, this gives them a rotation, insurance for any injures, and a 1st round talent player to slide in if one were to leave. It is a future need, but for a team seemingly extremely confident in their ability to manufacture a good secondary, a very understandable selection.


31.) Seattle Seahawks select Germain Ifedi (T, Texas A&M)  -  Grade: B

We close out the 1st round with the opposite of the Panthers choice. If any team deserved to bet on itself to develop a unit without premium talent, it is Carolina and their secondary. If any team doesn't, it is Seattle and their o-line. Finally moving past the idea of having five converted NBA players, the Seahawks decided to actually do what proved quite successful when they did it with Okung in 2010, and just draft an o-lineman. Ifedi can start right away, address a key need, and the Seahawks got a third rounder out of trading back as well.


Overall Best Pick: Miami Dolphins select Laremy Tunsil at #13

Runner-Up: Arizona Cardinals select Robert Nkemdiche at # 29


Overall Worst Pick: Dallas Cowboys select Ezekiel Elliott at #4

Runner-Up: San Francisco 49ers select Joshua Garnett at #28