2016 Madness: My Bracket

We interrupt this Peyton Manning memorial to bring you my 2016 March Madness picks:


South Regional

1st Round

(1) Kansas over (16) Austin Peay
(9) UCONN over (8) Colorado
(5) Maryland over (12) South Dakota St.
(4) California over (13) Hawaii
(6) Arizona over (11) Wichita St.
(3) Miami over (14) Florida
(10) Temple over (7) Iowa
(2) Villanova over (15) UNC Asheville


2nd Round

(1) Kansas over (9) UCONN
(5) Maryland over (4) California
(6) Arizona over (3) Miami
(2) Villanova over (10) Temple


West Region

1st Round

(1) Oregon over (16) Whoever
(8) St. Joseph's over (9) Cincinnati
(5) Baylor over (12) Yale
(4) Duke over (13) UNC-Wilmington
(11) Northern Iowa over (6) Texas
(3) Texas A&M over (14) Green Bay
(7) Oregon State over (10) VCU
(2) Oklahoma over (15) Cal-Bakersfield


2nd Round

(1) Oregon over (8) St. Joseph's
(5) Baylor over (4) Duke
(11) Northern Iowa over (3) Texas A&M
(2) Oklahoma over (7) Oregon State


East Regional

1st Round

(1) UNC over (16) Florida Gulf-Coast
(9) Providence over (8) USC
(5) Indiana over (12) Chatanooga
(4) Kentucky over (13) Stony Brook
(6) Notre Dame over (11) Not SUre
(3) West Virginia over (14) Stephen F. Austin
(10) Pittsburgh over (7) Wisconsin
(2) Xavier over (15) Weber State


2nd Round

(1) UNC over (9) Providence
(4) Kentucky over (5) Indiana
(3) West Virginia over (6) Notre Dame
(2) Xavier over (10) Pittsburgh


Midwest Regional

1st Round

(1) Virginia over (16) Hampton
(9) Butler over (8) Texas Tech
(5) Purdeu over (12) Arkansas Little-Rock
(13) Iona over (4) Iowa State
(11) Gonzaga over (6) Seton Hall
(3) Utah over (14) Fresno
(10) Syracuse over (7) Dayton
(2) Michigan St. over (15) Middle Tennessee


2nd Round

(1) Virginia over (9) Butler
(5) Purdue over (13) Iona
(11) Gonzaga over (3) Utah
(2) Michigan St. over (10) Syracyse


Sweet 16

(S1) Kansas over (S5) Maryland
(S6) Arizona over (S2) Villanova

(W1) Oregon over (W5) Baylor
(W2) Oklahoma over (W11) Northern Iowa

(E1) UNC over (E4) Kentucky
(E3) West Virginia over (E2) Xavier

(M5) Purdue over (M1) Virginia
(M2) Michigan St. over (M11) Gonzaga


Elite 8

(S1) Kansas over (S6) Arizona
(W2) Oklahoma over (W1) Oregon
(E1) UNC over (E3) West Virginia
(M2) Michigan St. over (M5) Purdue


Final 4

(S1) Kansas over (W2) Oklahoma
(E1) UNC over (M2) Michigan St.


National Championship 

(S1) Kansas over (E1) UNC

My 18 Favorite Peyton Manning Games, Pt. 3: #8 - #6

8.) 2013 AFC Championship - Patriots 16 @ Broncos 26

Over-time, this will become the AFC Championships Game between Manning and Brady that people forget about. The first will always be remembered for Manning's and the Colts' meltdown and Bill Polian 'changing the rules'.  The last will be remembered for the Broncos incredible defensive performance and for it being 'the last rodeo'. The second will always be remembered because it was one of the best games of all time and changed everything we knew about the rivalry. This one came at the culmination of the great 2013 offensive explosion for Denver. It came with a Patriots team resorted to using Matthew Slater and Austin Collie as cogs in the offense. It wasn't really that close of a game, with the Broncos rolling to a 23-3 lead through three quarters.

That all said, I will always remember it for Manning's performance. In the next iteration of 'the biggest game of his career', Manning was perfectly flawless. 30-41, 400 yards, 2 TDs, nothing even resembling a throw that could have been interception. Manning was not sacked, hit just once. It was a 70-degree day in January in Denver, and Manning shredded the Patriots in a way all Manning supporters always dreamed he would in a playoff game. In '06, he had to overcome a 21-3 deficit against a great defense. In '15, he had to not screw up. In this one? It was all about Manning.

The Broncos offense punted on their first drive. They wouldn't punt again. Their drive chart is pure brilliance, as they went FG-TD-FG-TD-FG-FG over the course of the game - running out the last 3:27 on the last drive. They gained 73, 93, 63, 80 and 60 yards on five straight drives. For the game, they averaged 60 yards per drive. It was a masterful performance against Belichick's defense, setting numerous records for worst defensive performance in the Belichick era (most yards, most passing yards).  Manning was in full control, never better shown than two conversions. First, on their initial TD drive, Manning audibled to a run against a soft box on 3rd and 10, which Moreno took for 28 yards. Then, on their FG drive right before half, after a holding penalty backed them up to 2nd and 20 from the 10 yard line, Manning hit Thomas on a perfect post for 26 yards. There was no real stopping Peyton.

I've never seen a game where Peyton seemed more calm, more at peace, more in command. Nothing really fazed him at all in this game, as he just simply carved up an overmatched. When Manning was still playing, not yet having won his second ring, my memory of this game got clouded by the disaster that was Super Bowl XLVIII, but now I can look back and smile at a QB who had, for a day, basically solved football; a zen-like performance from a player who so rarely did anything with such ease.

7.) 2012 Week 1 - Steelers 19 @ Broncos 31

(There are a few of these games from past years that I actually wrote about at the time. This is the first one. Instead of re-writing my feelings, I'm going to give a quick update of my thoughts standing here, post-Manning-retirement, and then re-post what I wrote about the game from then)

2016, Update: This game will always represent the prologue to the 2nd Book in the Manning Series. Before this game, we still didn't really know if Manning would be back. He looked OK in the preseason. The team hadn't really coalesced around him to becoming the type of team that would carry a limited Peyton to the Super Bowl. Looking back at the game, Peyton was brilliant. He matched wits with Polamalu, he took on the Steelers blitz. He took a few shots, and threw a few bullets. Most notable about the game, he didn't wear a glove on his throwing hand. He actually looked healthy. I forgot about this Peyton, truly. It was an incredible start to a brilliant, complicated and fruitful four years in Denver:

******************************************************************

I was stranded at a post-wedding bar when the report came that Peyton Manning was set to undergo a (what was thought to be) third neck surgery before Week 1 of the 2011 season. At that moment, all I knew was that his 208 game start streak was all but done. Little did I know that his Colts career was over. Little did I know how close it came to his overall career being over.

I was stranded with a broken-down van in the middle of nowhere, New Jersey, when Peyton Manning took the field again in a ugly orange uniform. Not knowing the score, or the events that were taking place 2,000 miles away, little did I know that Manning was doing what I had see him do for 208 straight games. One year and four days later I was again stranded, but instead of my sports world falling off a cliff the last time into a jungle of neck fusions and noodle arms, my sports world, my life as a Manning fan, would come back from the wilderness, much like my position with the van.

For one night at least, Peyton Manning, the sports legend, was alive again. He could go out next Monday Night and hurt his back again (although chances of this are far, far less than most would think; it is more likely his arm gets tired, but even that is a low percentage), but that doesn't matter. For one night, he came back from the wilderness and delivered against the NFL's best defense from 2011.

Sure, the Steelers were missing Ryan Clark and James Harrison, but that is still a defense that presents about as tough a challenge as any for Manning's first game back, but other than some early jitters, he passed every test. When Manning started that no-huddle, it was like he was a Colt again. He directed that offense. He called out each Steelers blitz. He was barely touched (some of that is credit to that o-line, which again to repeat, is better than any line he's had since 2007). He came to the line with 20 seconds left, and not once but twice was able to cheat out the blitz for the Steelers. His cat-and-mouse with Polamalu was a fun reminder of the mental ability of Peyton Manning. The game itself was a fun reminder of the true ability of Peyton Manning.

What actually connected with me about that game was the similarities between it and so many Colts games that I watched with nervous eyes from 2004-2010. The Steelers dominated time of possession, holding the ball for all but two plays of the 3rd quarter, pinning the Colts to 14 minutes possession in the first three quarters. Roethslisberger completed umpteen third-and-longs, which is a credit to Ben. It was like watching some QB go off against the Tampa-2 Colts. The game was decided by one crucial interception, a pass rush that became dominant late in the game (three sacks in four plays to ice it) and Manning being Manning. That recipe cemented Bill Polian and Tony Dungy's HOF case.

I have never cried during a sporting event (don't worry, I will the next time the Astros finish over .500). But I've felt something inside me while watching sports numerous times. I had about four or five of them last night. As someone who will be an unabashed Peyton Manning fan until he retires (if Irsay is right and Luck will have a 16 year career, that gives me 10-11 years of pure Luck love), that night made everything that happened over the past year worth it. Seeing Manning morose on the sideline last year. Seeing him breakdown in a way we have never seen in March when he was cut. Seeing that jarring image of him holding up that Orange #18 uniform. Seeing him wobble passes early in the preseason. All of that mess made last night more special. I earned it. All of us Manning and Colts fans earned it. Most importantly, Peyton Manning earned it.

There is a great story in the New York Times last week about Manning's road to recovery. Before he had that surgery that essentially ended his career as a Colt, he was throwing absolute ducks to friend-and-former-Tennessee-QB Todd Helton last summer. He was absolutely unsure if his career will continue. The Colts certainly were as well. Manning works harder than any player in the NFL, and no moreso than his two recoveries from injury. The first time, 2008 when he had a burst bursa sac, he started slow and won the MVP. This year? Who knows.

Peyton Manning nearly choked up last night after the game during his interview with Michelle Tafoya when talking about all the people that helped him during the past 18 months. Manning, sometime around the point where he became the NFL's most marketable star, became a guarded figure. He was still cordial and humorous in his interviews, but rarely showed emotions off the field. That seems to have changed through this whole ordeal, from his teary performance in his Colts send-off press conference to that interview last night. Manning is back, in more ways than one.

I'm probably a little too optimistic on the Broncos chances this year, but even if they go 10-6 and lose in the Divisional Round, I still have the memory of this game. Just remember, the only time I truly cared about the outcome of a game last year, outside of the Make-Sure-New-England-Loses machinations I go through each year, was Dan Orlovsky's gritty two-minute drill to beat a TJ Yates-led Texans team in Week 16. I enjoyed it at the time. I finally understood what it was like to win a game that mattered nothing in my time rooting for the Colts. But looking back, that was just sad. I've been pulled out of that wilderness as well. Manning rescued himself, but he rescued me, and rescued the career of the Greatest QB of All Time.

6.) 2006 Week 8 - Colts 27 @ Patriots 20

Manning won his first game against Tom Brady in 2005, a 40-21 thrashing in Gillette Stadium. It was less meaningful than it should have been since Manning's team was so clearly better in 2005. The Colts were rightful favorites, winning on their way to a 13-0 start. The loss put New England at 4-4. This game was different. The Patriots were 6-1, the Colts were 7-0. The Patriots had a great defense. The Colts a great offense (and historically bad run defense). The site again was in Foxboro on a chilly night, this being the first time the two would meet on NBC Sunday Night Football. Everything was set up for a great game, and that is exactly what we got.

Peyton Manning was in the midst of his quietly brilliant 2006 season, and while the result - a second straight win over New England, both in Foxboro - was loud, this performance was maybe his most sublime. The Patriots defense played great. The pass rush repeatedly got through to Manning, sacking him three times and hitting him countless others. But Manning countered by doing the one thing no one really thought he would ever be able to do: throw on the run. Three or four times, Manning rolled out and launched perfect bombs. The first was the best; on the Colts first drive, facing 3rd and 15 deep in Patriots territory, Manning rolled left, steadied himself, and launched a 44-yard bomb right before getting slammed by Roosevelt Colvin. Marvin Harrison was on the other end of that bomb, the start of an absolutely magical night for him. The other crazy throw on the run by Manning was in the 3rd quarter on 3rd and 5, clinging to a 17-14 lead, Manning rolled left and now completely on the run threw a perfect touch pass to Dallas Clark for 35 yards. Three plays later, the Colts would cement this game in the memory of all Colts fans.

It was 3rd and Goal on the 4-yard line, Colts up 17-14, Manning audibled and fired a quick out throw to Marvin Harrison. It was overthrown, but Harrison threw his hand out, batted it to himself, caught it and while falling out tapped both feet. John Madden assured everyone and himself that there is no way he got both feet down. Marvin Harrison was so confident that right after the catch, he got up and spiked the ball hard on the ground, it ricocheting back up right into Mike Vrabel's face. Of course, it was a good catch. Nothing was going to go wrong for him and Manning in that game.

The rest of the Colts contributed to the performance too. The defense picked off Tom Brady four times, twice in the end zone (Bethea, Bob Sanders - making a rare regular season cameo in 2006), and once to ice the game (Cato June - who had the 4th pick). The Special Teams also helped keep the game close, with Adam Vinatieri, ironically, missing two field goals including one late that would have put the Colts up 30-20. Instead, we got Brady having a chance for a miracle drive to tie the game, and as he would on game-tying tries in both the 2006 and 2015 AFC Championship Game, he got picked off to end it.

The 2006 Colts won the game to go to 8-0 - the second straight year they started that way. The '05 Colts were a juggernaut. The '06 Colts were not. They scraped by behind a brilliant offense and super-efficient Manning compensating for a sieve of a rush defense, and no early season win was bigger than this won. It ended up being the difference in where the AFC Championship Game was played, it ended up giving the Colts another set of good memories to turn to when they started out the Title Game down 21-3. It was one of the stranger games in the rivalry, but a truly memorable regular season one.

My 18 Favorite Peyton Manning Games, Pt. 2: #12 - #9

12.) 2004 Week 3 - Packers 31 @ Colts 45

It is hard to remember now, but the 2004 Colts didn’t start out on the path of the best passing offense (to date) ever. He had a good start to the season, with 4 TDs, 1 INT and a 104.9 rating through two games. The team had scored 55 points. In the third game – their first at home – against Brett Favre and the Packers, the Colts first showed just how amazing they would be. The Colts started the game with the following four drives: TD, TD, TD, TD. All those drives ended with TD passes by Manning, all from outside the red zone. First to Wayne from 36 yards, then to Marvin from 28 yards, then to Stokley for 34 yards, and then Stokley again for 27 yards. Following their lone first half punt, Manning threw another TD, this time to James Mungro from 1-yard. In the first half, the Colts racked up 351 yards. Manning himself went 23-31 for 320 yards and 5 TDs.

It was magic. It also was the first time Manning absolutely destroyed the blitz. No one really ever would blitz him without regard again in his Colts career. The best part about the game was for three drives, the Packers kept up. Favre was basically as good in the first half, but nothing really ever compared to Manning’s 2004 season. He would actually have a pretty average next game against Jacksonville, then rang up a 9-game stretch with 35 TDs, 7 INTs, a 9.9 y/a, and a 130.1 rating. The 2004 Colts regular season was the greatest passing offense relative to its league ever – and it started in reality in this Week 3 showdown between Manning and Favre. Favre played his part with two long TDs to Javon Walker to start the game, but Manning’s assault on the Packers truly was a sight to behold.

11.) 2015 AFC Championship - Patriots 18 @ Broncos 20

For all the people that say that the Broncos won the Super Bowl in-spite of Manning, I submit this game. If you reverse the two QBs, and one guy goes 17-32 with two TDs and no INTs, and the other throws two picks and throws a third on a 2-point conversion that would have sent the game to OT, I guarantee you Manning gets slammed for that performance and Brady gets hailed for being ‘mistake free’. Well, Manning was mistake free – rarely even throwing interceptable passes. Manning’s first drive, going 4-6 for 60 yards and a 21-yard TD to Daniels, was the last great drive he would lead in his career, and it was perfect. Two throws with great anticipation, one bullet throw on the move, and one last perfect seam throw to a TE. Even his 2^nd TD showed Manning’s incredible touch ability that he kept late into his career.

However, let’s get real. This game was about the Broncos defense, and that is the real reason the game was memorable to me. Sure, it was fun to see any team do that to Tom Brady, hit him 23 times, sack him 4, make him basically ground the ball 10 more. But really it was more fun having Manning’s team do that to anyone. For so many years, his defenses never had a year like this. For his entire career, the two times he had a defense nearly this good (2005, 2007), first his team imploded after Tony Dungy’s son committed suicide in ’05, and then Freeney got hurt for the year in ’07. For once, everyone was healthy, and Manning got to enjoy his defense dominating the other team. He got to enjoy the defense carrying him, making 20 points hold up. For once, he put his defense on the field, and unlike his team’s playoff losses in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, his team held onto a 4^th quarter lead. It was the most bizarre experience for a Manning fan to watch his team basically reverse everything we knew about Peyton Manning team’s in the playoffs – and I’m sure it was just as fun for Manning. Two years earlier, he had the highest scoring offense ever, and a defense dominated them. Two years later, after Elway said he would build a stronger, tougher team, his defense was doing the dominating.

10.) 2009 Week 2 - Colts 27 @ Dolphins 23

Over Peyton Manning’s career, he won games in ways no one else had. He was the master of the big comeback. If you ask people who they would want down 4 in the 4^th quarter, most would probably say Brady. I won’t argue that as a reasonable answer. If you ask them who do you want down 14? The answer is Manning and it isn’t close. This wasn’t one of those comeback games, but maybe the most absurd game he won in his career. The Colts won the game with 14:53 time of possession – that is the lowest total ever for a team that didn’t have a defensive or special teams TD. The Dolphins ran 84 plays, they ran for 239 yards (this was basically at the tail end of their Wildcat being effective). They only turned the ball over once – and that was the last play of the game on a desperation throw. Manning and the Colts offense needed to be perfect. It was. Manning went 14-23, but for 302 yards and 2 TDs. He hit Dallas Clark on a perfectly throw deep seam pass for an 80-yard TD on the first play. The Colts took the lead for good on a perfectly timed Manning audible to a WR-screen to Pierre Garcon – at this point basically an unknown player – for a 48 yard TD.

The drive stats for this game are absurd. The Colts scoring drives took 0:12, 4:07 (their longest drive of the game), 0:43 (a 5-play field goal drive to close out the half), 3:17 and 0:32 (a 4-play 80 yard drive that ended with the Garcon TD). It was as efficient as you can get, which was needed when the Dolphins had drives that went 8:45, 7:24, 6:22, 6:16 and 6:06. Peyton Manning had some ridiculous throws in this game. With 8-seconds left in the 2^nd quarter at midfield, he hit Clark for 20 yards – the play ended with 2-seconds left. On the final drive, he had back-to-back 15-yarders to Wayne and Clark that took a total of 10 seconds. This was Manning conducting a quick-hitting sniper attack. However, other than the 15 minutes time-of-possession, the real reason why this game is memorable is this is the game where Jon Gruden coined Peyton Manning as ‘The Sheriff’.

9.) 2006 Week 8 - Colts 34 @ Broncos 31

Manning’s 2006 season ended with his first Super Bowl, so it will always be memorable for that reason. However, that season also represented maybe Manning at his most efficient best. I have long been a proponent of Football Outsiders’ statistics to measure performance at a more advanced level. Their flag-ship stat, DVOA, measures all plays against a baseline success level for a play given the down and distance, and adjusts the success level for opponent and game score. By that stat, the best single-season for a QB was Manning’s 2004 season, at 58.9% better than average. The #3 season: Manning’s 2006 season, at 51.3% above average (Brady’s ’07 is in between). Manning’s ’06 season, when the Colts had a historically bad run defense, was a thing of beauty. By this point, the league had basically adjusted to his ’04-’05 exploits, and played the Colts differently. It didn’t matter, and this game was one of those masterpieces.

The Broncos entered the game 5-1 (the Colts were 6-0), giving up just two TDs in 6 games. The Colts scored three in the 2^nd half. Peyton was absolutely brilliant against a great defense, going 32-39 for 345 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs. Champ Bailey erased Marvin Harrison (5-38), so Peyton Manning locked onto Reggie Wayne, just obliterating the Broncos coverage. He and Wayne connected for three TDs, including one just absolutely perfect rainbow for a 19-yarder, and connected on the two point conversion. The Colts had absolutely no margin of error, as the Broncos moved the ball with ease, running for 227 yards, and the Colts basically did not get stopped after a first-drive punt all game. In the second half, Manning was 18-22 for 213 yards and all 3 TDs, again doing this on the road against a defense that had given up just two TDs all year. It was a masterful performance by Manning, another in a long line of him dominating the Broncos all the way up to the point he became one. It was also one of the signature regular season performances during a magical 2006 season for him and the team.

My 18 Favorite Peyton Manning Games, Pt. 1: #18 - #13

I might as well rename this blog for Peyton Manning. I will be writing about him, a lot, over the next few weeks as I continue to process my life as a football fan without him in it.

Anyway, next up on my remembrance tour, a ranking of my favorite Manning games. These aren't his best games, or necessarily the most dramatic (though the ones high up are plenty dramatic), but just the ones that I will always remember.


18.) 2013 Week 13 - Broncos 35 @ Chiefs 28

Recap: The only 2013 regular season game to make my cut was maybe the best example of how dominant the Broncos offense was at its best. Here they were on the road, at 9-2, up against a similarly 9-2 Kansas City team. It was a huge game, probably the biggest road game Manning had played in his Denver career given the stakes... and the Chiefs took a 21-7 lead as Manning struggled with two picks. And then, the Broncos went TD (run by Moreno), punt, TD, TD, TD. Those last three TDs made it 35-21, and the last two were both 90+ yards. Again, this was on the road against the to-that-point, best defense in the AFC. The first TD drive took five plays. Two were runs for no gain. One was incomplete. The other two were the TD - 15 yards to Decker - and a deep throw to Thomas for 77. The next took 10 plays, went 95 yards, and the Broncos converted three third downs. It was a magical performance in a season full of them, but this was their biggest. Manning's 2013 season was full of ridiculous games, but I don't think any game showed just how good and well crafted that offense was than a 14-point comeback with 28-unanswered against a very good team on the road.

17.) 2004 Week 16 - Chargers 31 @ Colts 34 

The Colts entered their Week 16 game with an 11-3 record, but so did the Chargers. Manning entered the game with 47 TDs on the year. It was a big late season game, though both teams were locked into the #3 and #4 seed, but the threat of Manning breaking Marino's TD record took over much of the media coverage. Manning did get that record, a 15-yard seam throw to Stokley, but it was the game situation that surrounded the record that made the game special. The Chargers, as they did throughout Manning's Colts career, somewhat stifled the Colts offense, and the Chargers offense was unstoppable. The Chargers took a 31-16 lead, and for once in the 2004 season, the Colts needed Manning and his offense. Peyton Manning had the best season a QB will ever have in 2004, combining ridiculous efficiency with less throws than ever. This game was different. He threw, and threw and threw, for 383 yards total. After starting the second half out with a 3-and-out, the Colts went TD, missed FG, TD to tie the game. Both the TDs were by Manning's arm, including the great record-breaker which tied the game. Manning had many 4th quarter comebacks. Given the record he broke in this game, and the eventual meaningless-ness of the win, this is not one of the more memorable comebacks. But it should be, as it was a truly memorable game.

16.) 2005 Week 11 - Colts 45 @ Bengals 37

 A forgotten great shootout, the Bengals were the first team to really challenge the 2005 Colts. The Colts entered the game 9-0, winning all by 7 points. Their largest challenge was against the Rams, where they became the first team in NHL history to win a game by 17 where they trailed by 17 (winning 45-28 after trailing 0-17). Here, though, the Bengals fought the Colts point for point. The Bengals themselves entered at 7-2 in their breakout season with Palmer, and saw this as their coming-out-party. And what a party it was. The score at halftime was 35-27. Yes, there were 10 different scoring drives in the first half, with an incredible number of close plays. The Colts took a 14-3 lead with a 66 yard TD pass to Reggie Wayne. Palmer answered right back with a 68-yarder to Chad Johnson. The Colts offense was actually relatively worse than their defense in 2005 to this point, but in this game the Colts offense had to make up for their defense, and they did by starting the game TD, TD, TD, TD, TD. Of course, the Bengals went FG, TD, TD, punt, FG, TD, TD themselves. In the end, the Colts were slightly stronger, better in the red zone, and the Colts just happened to have the all last. Nothing separated the two best QBs in the NFL in 2005 on this day (yes, Carson Palmer was the 2nd best in '05), and the only ever game between Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning in Palmer's stadium was a delight to watch.

15.) 2006 AFC Divisional - Colts 15 @ Ravens 6

This is the only game on the list where Manning was abjectly not very good. But given both the quality of the Ravens, and the way ex-Ravens speak about this game, maybe Manning was really good after all. The stats are not pretty for Peyton and the offense. Manning went 15-30, for 170 yards and two INTs. The Colts never found the end zone. Then again, the Ravens gave up just 12 points per game in the regular season at home. They were loaded defensively, with 10 of their 11 players going to a pro bowl in their careers. The Ravens defense played about as well as you can, confusing Maning into bad throw after bad throw. But Manning confused them back, calling out blitz after blitz, and hitting throws in frighteningly tight windows. Two plays really exemplified the Manning performance. First was a 30-yard throw to Dallas Clark, with Adalius Thomas bearing down right in his face. The other was the clincher, clinging to a 12-6 lead with three minutes to go, facing 3rd and 5 outside of field goal range, Manning threw a spot-perfect pass to a very covered Dallas Clark. It was a dumb decision, but a brilliant throw. Ray Lewis swears to this day he has no idea how Manning completed that pass. It was the best bad performance ever, in a game of chess so good grand-masters would have been proud.

14.) 2003 AFC Divisional - Colts 38 @ Chiefs 31

Another trip to Arrowhead 10 years before the other one on this list was nearly as good. Once again, both offenses dominated, and Manning at his best against the Chiefs offensive machine at their best produced to date the only playoff game without even one punt. Both teams had just 8 possessions. The Colts scored 5 TDs, one field goal, one meaningless turnover on downs (in KC territory) and one drive that ended the first half. Manning was in full control, going 22-30 for 304 yards and 3 TDs. All three were different, but great. First was a perfect seam throw to Stokley, then a roll-out throw to fullback Todd Lopienski, and finally an absolutely spot-perfect arced throw to Reggie Wayne. The Chiefs were nearly as good. Priest Holmes ran for 200 yards. They're only failed drives were a missed field goal, a fumble (basically the difference in the game), and a 1-play drive to end the game. They also ran back a kick-off - Dante Hall was really, really good - but it was no match. The Colts had various stretches in the Manning era when their offense was impossibly great, but maybe no two-game stretch was as good as their 41-10 win over Denver (perfect passer rating for Manning) and this classic. As Dick Enberg said after the TD throw to Wayne, 'How good is the Colts' good?"

13.) 2014 Week 6 - 49ers 17 @ Broncos 42

I feel sad just talking about this game, as it represents how good Peyton Manning was so recently. This was, along with the game to follow it against the Chargers, Peyton Manning's last great vintage performance. He was deadly against the still-thought-to-be-great 49ers in the game he set the NFL record for TDs. Manning was peerless, going 22-26 for 318 yards and 4 TDs. His record breaker was to Demaryius Thomas in the second quarter, making it 21-3. It was a primetime affair, as so many legendary Manning games were, and there was a nice little celebration after it. The Broncos entered halftime up 21-10. But what really made the game special was what the Broncos did to start the 2nd half. They went TD, TD, TD, including a perfect 40-yard throw for Manning to Denver. The game ended in a rout, and really showed how Manning was, somehow, better in 2014 through 6 games than he was the year before. Manning was playing at a level few have ever seen. His arm atually seemed stronger at this point than at any time in his Denver career. Two weeks later, his 6-1 Broncos would lose to the 5-2 Patriots. Two weeks later they would lose in St. Louis. Two weeks later Manning would tear his quad. He was never the same. But before all that started, Manning put together one last near-perfect performance on a Sunday Night.

Quick Thoughts on Manning's Retirement

I've never once removed a post after I hit the 'publish' button. I've edited a few - mostly to add pictures or correct grammatical mistakes (though even those I generally leave in). If there ever was a time to delete one it would be this, less than 24 hours after I decided to publish a list of teams who I think could make sense for Peyton Manning in 2016, the man himself decides to call it a career.

I honestly haven't had too much time to think about Peyton retiring. I did pretty much feel this was going to happen ever since he got his job back in Week 16, and the Super Bowl run only re-inforced that. I readied myself to some degree, but I still don't know exactly how I am feeling now, how I will feel when he has his 'Colts' retirement, and how I will feel next September when he is not there.

I saw the news when I woke up in a daze during a weekend with friends in Austin. I missed the press conference as I was busy at work. I think nothing shows his career more than I started following him when I was in 6th grade, and when he finally retired, I couldn't watch my favorite athlete's retirement press conference because I had actual adult responsibilities.

Peyton Manning goes out a Champion, twice over. I could care less about the number of RINGZZ a player has when judging them historically, but even to me I feel good knowing he got a chance to lift that trophy again. Peyton Manning also goes out with a great end to a dreadful season. I understand why he came back for 2015, and obviously in the end it was the right call, but more than a 2nd ring, I'm thankful his career didn't end with a 4 interception performance against the Chiefs.

Peyton Manning has meant more to me than any athlete I've followed - and given how one's interest in sports tends to fade as you get older, he will likely hold that place forever. And he should. I've never invested more time and energy into any one player like I did with Peyton. I think I've written more about him, whether here or on Social Media, or even dating back a few years to my time on Colts-specific blogs, than I did on the other list of my favorite athletes combined.

Peyton Manning taught me a lot about sports and football; through him I learned more about the game than I can possibly imagine. But he gave me so many other gifts as well. He taught me a lot of life lessons that I plan to detail in a separate post. Through my interest in him and the Colts, he gave me a whole on-line community to interact with, first in blog-form at the Colts SB Nation site Stampede Blue, and my personal favorite sports blog, 18to88.com. I've become online friends with a decent amount of that little crazy community.

Peyton gave me, more than anything else, a lot of joy. The blogger of 18to88, Nate Dunlevy once said a truly profound statement, probably in response to another person mentioning the 'playoff failures' of Manning, that the job of any football team and / or player is to give the fan a Happy Sunday. For year after year, Peyton gave us all 10-14 Happy Sundays. There were some bad ones, some infamous ones, but 75% of the time, they were happy.

Peyton Manning is the best QB I ever saw play. He will also hold that title for a long time. If his retirement does anything, it know makes Peyton a player I can remember fondly as a part of the past rather than obsess over constantly as a part of my present. I can watch those old games, the classic Manning performances and look back on what he once was at his peak.

I will have more Peyton Manning-related posts in the next few weeks, a few that were already in the works, and maybe a few more that were written years ago - mostly when he left the Colts - updated with some new information and feelings gathered over his Denver coda. To end this, I want to leave this with the transcript of his heartfelt, touching and deeply personal goodbye:

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"In my very first NFL game, I completed my first pass to Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk. I threw a touchdown in that same game to Marvin Harrison, who would be inducted into the Hall of Fame this August.

The quarterback for our opponent, the Miami Dolphins, was, after my dad, my favorite player -- Hall of Famer Dan Marino, who on the first third down of the game completed a 25-yard skinny post. And it was the damndest throw I’d ever seen.

Later, I completed a pass to tight end Marcus Pollard down the middle and somebody hit me really hard and after I got up I told myself, “I know I can play in this league.”

Later in that struggling season, we played in and lost to Baltimore. It was the first time that the Colts had returned to Baltimore since they had moved back in 1984. We didn’t exactly get a warm reception that day. The fans were screaming at me and I kept thinking, “Hey, I was only 8 years old then, get off of my back.”

I had met him once before but when the game was over I had the chance to shake Johnny Unitas’ hand. He told me, “Peyton, you stay at it. I’m pulling for you.”

Well, I have stayed at it. I’ve stayed at it for 18 years and I hope that old No. 19 is up there with his flat top and maybe his black high tops on and I hope he knows that I have stayed at it and maybe he’s even a little proud of me.

There is just something about 18 years. Eighteen is a good number and today I retire from pro football.

I want to thank the people of New Orleans and south Louisiana. New Orleans is my hometown and of course they support their own team, the Saints, but they also support their own and that city and state have backed me from the start.

Almost 19 years ago to the day, I announced my decision to forgo the draft and stay at the University of Tennessee for my senior year. It was one of the smartest decisions I’ve ever made. I cherished my time in Knoxville, especially my senior year. And I want Vols fans everywhere to know the unique role that you’ve played in my life.

Thank you to the Indianapolis Colts organization and all the fans across this country. You can’t fathom how much I enjoyed my 14 years there or the warmth that my family feels for you. I’d be wrong not to mention Jim Irsay, Bill Polian, some great coaches, support staff and a host of wonderful Colts teammates, many of whom will be lifelong friends.

When I was drafted by the Colts, Indianapolis was a basketball and a car racing town but it didn’t take long for the Colts to convert the city and state of Indiana into football evangelists.

We ended my rookie season 3-13 and in the process I set the NFL rookie record for interceptions, a record that I still hold today. Every year I pull for a rookie quarterback to break that record. Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Cam Newton. I still kid Eli that he would have broken it if he would have started all 16 games.

In the beginning of my time in Indy, the team’s struggles were agonizing. My grandfather would call me weekly to ask if his favorite announcers John Madden and Pat Summerall would be broadcasting our game. "Paw Paw,” I’d say, “we’re only 2-8 right now. We’re playing the 3-7 Bengals. Madden and Summerall don’t broadcast those kinds of games.”

Fast-forward to my second year when we had gotten things going a little bit. We were playing the Dallas Cowboys and Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders. I called Paw Paw: “Guess what, Madden and Summerall are broadcasting the game.” He said, “I can’t believe it.”

He was elated and he was very proud and we beat the Cowboys that week and we let the world know that the Colts had arrived. Make no mistake about it, we were coming and we went on to do some phenomenal things like winning at least 12 games seven years in a row and of course winning Super Bowl XLI. And I was truly honored and proud to be a part of it.

There’s a saying that goes, treat a man as he is and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be and he will become what he should be.

When I visited Denver four years ago, if John Elway had sat me down and said, “Peyton, here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to win over 50 games, win four straight division championships, lose only three division games in four years and none will be on the road, we’ll beat the Patriots in two championship games and you’re going to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, another MVP, your offense will set single-season passing records, you’ll break a couple more all-time records, and we’ll go to a couple of Super Bowls.” I think I would have taken that deal.

John, you did tell me that, didn’t you?

Grateful is the word that comes to my mind when thinking of the Denver Broncos. I want to thank Pat Bowlen and his family, Joe Ellis, John Elway, John Fox, Gary Kubiak and their staffs and all the support people in this great organization.

To all of my Denver teammates, thank you for what you’ve done for this old quarterback. And of course my gratitude to the Broncos fans everywhere.

Over my NFL career, I’ve had five head coaches who have helped me become better at my craft and have helped me become a better human being: Jim Mora, Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell, John Fox, Gary Kubiak.

While I’ve obviously changed teams, I’ve had the same football representation for almost two decades. I owe Tom Condon many thanks. He has represented me with class at every juncture and he’ll always be a great friend.

I want to thank a tremendous group of friends who have supported my football career and been at my side at games from high school to Tennessee, Indy and through that incredible Broncos’ Super Bowl win last month. You know who you are and what you mean to me.

There is no way to measure or properly express what a family like mine can mean. Mom, Dad, Cooper, Eli, extended family, you are the best. Ashley, your support is as potent a motivator as any man can have.

Ashley's and my kids, Marshall and Mosley, have only been around for a couple of years but they have changed my life forever. A week before the Super Bowl our daughter Mosley asked me, “Daddy, is this the last game?”

“Yes, Mosley, it’s the last game of the season.”

“I sure do want you to win that trophy.”

“I do, too, Mosley. And that’s what we’re going to try to do.”

Then she asked, “Daddy, is this the last game ever?” And that’s just when I shook my head in amazement because I was thinking, “Mort and Adam Schefter had gotten to my 5-year-old daughter to cultivate a new source.”

When someone thoroughly exhausts an experience they can’t help but revere it. I revere football. I love the game. So you don’t have to wonder if I’ll miss it. Absolutely. Absolutely I will. Our children are small now, but as they grow up, we’re going to teach them to enjoy the little things in life because one day they will look back and discover that those really were the big things.

So here are the seemingly little things that when I look into my rearview mirror, have grown much bigger.

I’m going to miss a steak dinner at St. Elmo's in Indianapolis after a win. My battles with players named Lynch, Lewis, Thomas, Bruschi, Fletcher, Dawkins, Seau, Urlacher, Polamalu, Harrison, Woodson and Reed. And with coaches like Fisher, Ryan, Belichick, Kiffin, Phillips, Rivera, LeBeau, Crennel, Capers, Lewis, the late Jim Johnson, and so many more. I always felt like I was playing against that middle linebacker or that safety or that defensive coach.

I’ll miss figuring out blitzes with Jeff Saturday. Reggie sitting on top of the bench next to me. Perfecting a fake handoff to Edgerrin James. I’ll miss Demaryius Thomas telling me that he loved me and thanking me for coming to Denver after every touchdown I threw to him.

I’ll miss putting in a play with Tom Moore and Adam Gase that ends in a touchdown on Sunday. On Fridays I’ll miss picking out the game balls with my equipment guys. Talking football with the broadcast crews and afterwards I’ll miss recapping the game with my dad. And checking to see if the Giants won and calling Eli as we’re both on our team buses.

I’ll miss that handshake with Tom Brady and I’ll miss the plane rides after a big win with 53 teammates standing in the aisles laughing and celebrating during the whole flight. I’ll miss playing in front of so many great fans both at home and on the road. I’ll even miss the Patriots fans in Foxborough, and they should miss me because they sure did get a lot of wins off of me.

And this is important, football fans everywhere need to know how much they mean to me over the years. Fans, you’re at the core of what makes this game remarkable. I’ve received more letters from you than I can count. Fan letters that have touched me, made me think, laugh and moved me to act.

I’ve learned a lot through my mistakes, stumbles and losses in football. I’ve also learned this game is a mighty platform that has given me a voice that can echo well beyond the game. Football has taught me not to be led by obstructions and setbacks but instead to be led by dreams. Due to some good genes, I’m smart enough to know that those lessons can enrich who I am and where I go from here.

I’m totally convinced that the end of my football career is just the beginning of something I haven’t even discovered yet. Life is not shrinking for me, it’s morphing into a whole new world of possibilities.

Pundits will speculate that my effort and drive over the past 18 years were about mastery and working to master every aspect of the NFL game. Well, don’t believe them. Because every moment, every drop of sweat, every bleary-eyed night of preparation, every note I took and every frame of film I watched was about one thing, reverence for this game.

When I look back on my NFL career, I’ll know without a doubt that I gave everything I had to help my teams walk away with a win. There were other players who were more talented but there was no one could out-prepare me and because of that I have no regrets.

There’s a scripture reading, 2 Timothy 4:7: I have fought the good fight and I have finished the race. I have kept the faith.

Well, I’ve fought a good fight. I’ve finished my football race and after 18 years, it’s time. God bless all of you and God bless football."

Where Could Peyton Manning Go?

Cross-off-the-List Pt. 1: New England, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Washington, Green Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, Seattle

These are the teams that are already pretty good (and I'm counting a Colts team led by a health Andrew Luck in that group), with a proven QB that is either a veteran, or someone under contract who performed well last year and is still young (Bridgewater, Cousins). None of these teams have a need at QB, and all can somewhat think to themselves as Super Bowl contenders.


Cross-off-the-List Pt. 2: Baltimore, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, San Diego, Dallas, New York (n), Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

These are teams that are not as good, but have entrenched QBs. Some are young potential franchise QBs (Mariota, Carr, Winston, Bortles), some are older but are recently re-signed and have full commitment as their teams starting QB (Flacco, Rivers, Romo, Manning, Ryan, Brees), and some are situations that aren't perfect, but the starter is pretty much known and Manning, at this stage, provides no real improvement opportunity (Bradford, Cutler, Stafford)


Tier 1: The Long Shots:

Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns

Finding any good situation for Peyton is tough. The last time he went through this, he could make a mediocre offense great - he pretty much did that at Denver. Now, he needs to find a team that is good enough outside the QB position to still challenge for 8-8. The Bills are a potential option given their roster outside of QB, but it seems Rex Ryan is heavily invested in Tyrod Taylor. The only reason I even have the Bills here because Rex Ryan is slightly insane, and he loves Peyton. He's lost crushing games to him in the past, even beaten him a few times. I think he would love to coach Peyton. The Browns are essentially the opposite. They have a need. They have no QB, and even if they draft someone at #2 overall, they can make that guy sit a year. If this was a real draft, they would definitely take Peyton. I don't know if Peyton would take them. He can't go to a team that is 2-3 years away. The Browns are simply not good enough for 2016 Peyton Manning.


Tier 2: The Under-the-radar Candidates:

Miami Dolphins, New York Jets

The AFC East has been looking for a QB who could consistently challenge Tom Brady and Co. in New England for a good decade now. The closest anyone has come is the Jets with Pennington, but since he left it is either the Jets with Sanchez or the Dolphins with Tannehill. Think of how depressing that is. The Jets are one of the teams who can argue that if you give every NFL team the same exact QB performance, the rest of their roster is good enough to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a good season, but he's an unrestricted free agent who could find a home elsewhere. Manning may not like the idea of playing in the same city as his brother, not to mention the same division as Tom Brady and the Patriots. That said, the fit is definitely there, with a potentially dominant defense, good targets on the outside, and a decent o-line. They are a team that could replicate the 2015 Broncos.


Tier 3: The Wild Card:

San Francisco 49ers

Who knows what Chip Kelly is ever thinking. In reality, the fit makes no sense - there is no threat to run for Peyton, and it is hard to envision him playing fast. But then again, just two years ago, in 2013 season, the Broncos score-adjusted pace was faster than the Eagles in Chip Kelly's best year. Peyton Manning perfected the no-huddle in the NFL. The fit may make more sense than you think.


Tier 4: The Real Wild Card:

Denver Broncos

In a weird way, this is the easiest option to envision. Now that the Broncos have put the franchise tag on Von Miller, Brock Osweiler is set to become a Free Agent next week. The Broncos will probably retain him, but there is a chance someone swoops in and gives Osweiler, fresh of a 5-2 run against some good teams for the eventual Super Bowl Champion, an offer he can't refuse. If that happens, the Broncos, who know they probably just need competent QB play to be a 10+ win team, may just go right back to Peyton for Round 5. If you remove Osweiler, there's no real incumbent, and the Broncos could draft someone they like at #32 and ride Peyton for a year or two. I would wager if Osweiler signs elsewhere, they become the favorite.


Tier 5: The Co-Favorites

St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans

The Rams are the only team to even reportedly show interest in a reduced Peyton. No other team has even shown the slightest inkling - though I have to imagine multiple are at least investigating privately. For the Rams, though, they have some of the advantages the Broncos gave. They have a defense that is potentially great, including a Von-Miller type in Aaron Donald - different position, but similar talent level. With Todd Gurley they have a running game. The receivers are odd, but maybe a smart QB like Peyton could make them work better. Finally, Houston is to this Manning search to what Arizona was last time - the place I want him to go. The Texans have a good defense, with another Von Miller-level player in Watt. They have a dominant receiver in Nuke Hopkins. They have a seemingly good coaching staff and a good o-line. It also gives Peyton just the perfect set-up, getting to play the Patriots one last time, getting a home-and-home against the Colts, and finally getting a chance to play Denver, which I think he is stilled sligthly miffed with.

The Top-20 QBs: #15 - Dan Fouts

#15 - Dan Fouts

Dan Fouts was the first futuristic QB. He was the first one to routinely throw for 4,000 yards. He was the first one who led an offense that resembled what we would see today. Dan Fouts, in a way, was way ahead of his time - along with his legendary, visionary coach in Don Coryell. In many ways, Dan Fouts is the QB people think Jim Kelly was. Kelly ran the K-Gun offense, another futuristic offense with the no-huddle that scored oodles of points and gained more yards, but Kelly had more in common with the dead-ball era QBs than he did with Fouts. Dan Fouts was one of a kind.

Dan Fouts threw deep, that much we all know. He had years with Y/A numbers north of 8.0, great numbers for that time. But that belies his accuracy, often a QB with a completion percentage around 60%. These are not normal numbers for those days. The normal QB in those days either met Fouts's Y/A number, or met the completion number. No one did both. Fouts did.

Dan Fouts was more voluminous than any QB who came before him, and most that came after until Dan Marino came about. As much as we like to think of Marino's 1984 season being from a different planet, so was what Fouts did in 1980-1982. In 1982, he threw for 320 yards per game, basically matching what Marino would do two seasons later - the 9-game season hurt his overall stats. Dan Fouts was at his best in those years, but he was failed by the same issues that have failed so many great 'stats' QBs since.

In a weird way, Dan Fouts is the best example of how not winning a Super Bowl, and being clearly not one of teh Top-5 QBs of all time actually helps his standing. Do we ever hear about Fouts not winning in the playoffs? Or how Fouts was not clutch? No, instead we hear about his defense, or the cold, or other factors ruined him. We appreciate Fouts for what he was: a player way before his time.

We don't denigrate Dan for not winning a Super Bowl, nor even reaching one. We don't fault him for being the initial high-profile 'stat' maven that failed once the weather got cold and the defenses he faced got tougher. Almost hilariously, we almost credit Fouts for losing 'The Freezer Bowl' because it was so cold. Instead of saying Fouts and the Air Coryell offense went underground in the cold, we say 'man, isn't in unfortunate they had to play in the cold?!'

And this isn't to take anything away from Fouts. He represents how media should view QBs, should view athletes. Dan Fouts is a legendary player, one that flew easily into the Hall of Fame. He will be forever remembered as the first QB to make breaking the 4,000 yard barrier routine. He started the modern offense in reality. He also never won a Super Bowl, but who really cares about that? Sadly, often times too many do. Fouts escaped that criticism, Fouts escaped it all. I'm not sure why, but I'm just glad someone did.

Dan Fouts really showed that back in the day, the NFL world saw the value of a QB who threw deep, threw accurately, and put up video game numbers. They saw this as something new, something different, something out of another world. What they didn't see was a QB who couldn't handle the pressure - people viewed beyond the lazy tropes and small flaws to see an all-time great play like he did.

The World Overreacts to Steph Curry

On Saturday Night, we got our latest exhibit of what has become an accepted fact: Steph Curry has solved shooting. He is, by orders of magnitude at this point, the best shooter in the history of the NBA. No one has come close to shooting 3’s at his volume, and few that can even compare can shoot at his efficiency rate. The scatter plot of the best shooters basically looks like this:

Note, this is not the actual chart, but it would look somewhat similar. Curry has a very good percentage, but does that across an in-human amount of shots. The people that have a higher percentage probably shoot threes generally when they are open, off a pass, and from near the arc. Curry does this too, but also shoots ridiculous shots from 30+ feet, off the dribble, and while being closely guarded. If anyone else shoots this, they will a) most likely miss, and b) get chided for shooting a terrible, low percentage shot. With Curry there are no low-percentage shots.

Of course, Curry solving shooting has had some amazing effects for the game. The Warriors have, similarly, solved modern offense. They are an unbeatable machine. The league as a whole is shooting more threes, but that means they are doing what I described above: creating offense for threes, employing better ball movement, and eschewing long two’s to step a few feet back. The league increasing its utilization of threes is the real reason why the NBA should explore moving the line. Not because of Curry.

Sports should never change because one player is so much better at one thing than anyone else. Not that it hasn’t happened. Golf changed because Tiger Woods was just better and longer than anyone in 2000-01 – courses got bigger and tougher. There are more apt examples too:

• The NHL putting in place the trapezoid to restrict the goalie’s ability to handle the puck was pretty much directly instituted as a rule because of Martin Brodeur’s ability to handle the puck and become essentially a half extra defenseman

This happened many years ago. There were a few other goalies cited (Marty Turco was another big one), but it really was aimed at Brodeur. The issue with the current situation is while the trapezoid took away from the value of Marty Brodeur – though ever so slightly, he was basically just as good after – it was a small percentage of plays and didn’t provide that much value. What Curry has mastered better than anyone ever is the single most valuable play in an NBA game.

The NBA is at an interesting time, and if hating on Curry gets people to peel the onion back on the overall issues with threes more, than I am fine with it. Just know that most of the suggestions, like moving the line back, will make Curry MORE valuable, as he is one of the few people who can consistently hit from 25-28 feet as well. Loads of players can come close to matching Curry’s effectiveness just beyond the line, but as we step further back Curry becomes even more of an outlier.

I don’t know what the solution is really. I have heard a couple things tossed around that I like:

1. Get rid of the corner three by making the arc a real arc and removing the corner three all together
2. Let NBA teams pick the distance at their home arena, assuming some basic ground rules are in play, like a set range of distances, and a normal arc or curve – no random squiggly line

Personally, I like suggestion #2 the most. I like when teams can personalize their stadium to create an inherent advantage. Obviously, baseball is the best at this as the stadiums are by design unique – and quirks and weather conditions play an active role in roster construction. In soccer there are a few different pitch size options. Hockey rinks can play around with temperatures and humidity to create a faster or slower surface. In basketball there is no real customization, and it would definitely be interesting to see how each team addresses the question of where to place the line.

Even #1 has its merits. The corner three, checking in at just 22 feet, is ridiculous. It is barely longer than a normal 2-point shot, it is the easiest for players to hit. There is no way it should be worth 50% more than a normal 2-pointer. I am in favor of making the arc a real parabola and essentially having it meet the sideline around level with the lower blocks, and for all intents and purposes making the corner three just a 2-point shot.

What this will really do is make the game more variable and differentiate teams further. Right now, basically every team is trying to recreate the Warriors – be able to go small and have 4-5 shooters on the court at any time (and conversely, 4-5 people who can guard opposing shooters). It makes sense, too, because of the mathematics of the game. Basically, a team has to hit ~35% from three to make it the same as shooting 50% from two. This is not a high bar anymore, which has forced all teams to basically try to do that. The game is exciting, no doubt, but lost in the three-and-D madness has been the depreciation of the post-game, the dunk and the physicality that was actually fun back in the day.

There is a happy medium somewhere, and it realistically has to come by altering the court. Players are not going to get any worse at shooting threes, if anything they will just continue to get better to the point that someone, someday, is going to match Stephen Curry’s exploits. The NBA has to do something before the league becomes essentially a glorified three-point-contest. If it is a small but loud negative reaction to Curry’s dominance that forces change, then so be it. 

Let’s just know that when the NBA takes the easy way out and just pushes the line back to 25 feet, Curry will still be awesome, will still lead the league in threes, the Warriors may still be the best team. But at least teams could then fight them on their own terms instead of having to play the way the Warriors do, but just without the best ever at doing it.